I wonder if Hofer and his party will see this as a high tide from which their support recedes, or if they can build on the result.
Well they are quite far ahead in the national polls for their 2018 elections, they have between a 10 and 13 point lead over the next party. The CDU fellow I know in Germany says that once people have overcome the taboo of voting for a right wing party in Germany they tend to do a lot better in future elections, AfD have profited from this at the CDU's expense. If the same is true in Austria (another nation which has collective war guilt) then this may be a watershed moment for the FPO regardless. Having 50% of people voting for a right wing party that is anti-immigrant may mean thos people find it easier to do so in the general election. UKIP use the European elections as a platform to build on in the UK, they received 4.3m votes in the 2014 EU election, then in 2015 they followed it up with 3.9m votes compared to 0.9m in 2010.
Do the Austrians collectively feel any guilt for WW2? It's not a country I know well, but the presudential vote reflects what I have sensed when I've been there - around half the country feels that Austria has nothing to apologise for and the other 50% does. This is the country of Haider and Waldheim, after all.
So in the last week Remain varies between 48 & 60, Leave between 40 and 52.
They're all guessing, so are punters.
No, guessing is what we did in Oldham when in the absence of polling we imagined UKIP had a cat's chance in hell of taking a north-west seat from Labour.
I don't remember anybody giving Ukip a cat in hell's chance.
That is simply not true, UKIP were definitely expected to run it close, all those Labour voters were supposed to be so pissed off with Corbyn and the "metropolitan elite" that they were going to vote UKIP in droves. There was definitely talk of UKIP possibly winning & Corbyn being finished. The size of Labour's win came as quite a surprisnot least of all to me who expected Labour to do much worse due to the Corbyn factor.
You clearly don't understand campaigning.
Each party will set out to win, with the exception of The Raving Loonies etc the candidate will convince himself he can win. Nobody has ever canvassed saying "I can't win so don't bother voting for me." It is about convincing the electorate that you are both confident and competent. The Ukip candidate will have been sure he was going to win, he has to be or people won't help his campaign. If Ukip had won it would have been one of the biggest electoral shocks ever, few, if any, really thought it likely.
Had a quick look back at Betfair:-
"My instinct says Labour hang on with a vastly reduced majority, but they make no betting appeal whatsoever. I wouldn't be in the least bit surprised were UKIP to edge it, and that must make them the value pick at 4.50. Their chance of victory is better than 22%.
Recommended bet Back UKIP to win the Oldham West & Royton by-election @ 4.50"
Biggest electoral shock ever my a@se!
Can you name a bigger shock than Ukip winning a seat that Labour have held for decades?
No, I thought not.
What price were the Tories to get a mjority at the last election?
''Do the Austrians collectively feel any guilt for WW2? It's not a country I know well, but the presudential vote reflects what I have sensed when I've been there - around half the country feels that Austria has nothing to apologise for and the other 50% does. This is the country of Haider and Waldheim, after all.''
"In the “shock” scenario, the recession is about as mild as possible, and much less severe than any recession in living memory: GDP falls by 0.1 per cent in each quarter starting in July 2016. Given the natural variation in GDP figures and the world economy, it’s perfectly possible that even small changes in the economic outlook could push some of those numbers into positive territory, meaning a recession was averted. And the Vote Leave campaign notes that this “year-long recession” would only reduce the overall size of the economy to the level seen at the end of 2015.
When I was at ONS I had it drilled in to me that 0 is not important. Whether a number is slightly above or below, it is irrelevant to what you write (i.e. the numbers are broadly static/unchanged). Now, in GDP terms a stagnant economy is not a good thing, but you can guarantee that efforts were made by the treasury to come up with numbers that allowed them to say that we would go into recession.
I guess they couldn't push the numbers any further without changing broad assumptions about our economy in general - that is, to predict a bigger recession would have meant Osborne admitting what we all know - that our economy is built on sand.
So in the last week Remain varies between 48 & 60, Leave between 40 and 52.
They're all guessing, so are punters.
No, guessing is what we did in Oldham when in the absence of polling we imagined UKIP had a cat's chance in hell of taking a north-west seat from Labour.
I don't remember anybody giving Ukip a cat in hell's chance.
That is simply not true, UKIP were definitely expected to run it close, all those Labour voters were supposed to be so pissed off with Corbyn and the "metropolitan elite" that they were going to vote UKIP in droves. There was definitely talk of UKIP possibly winning & Corbyn being finished. The size of Labour's win came as quite a surprisnot least of all to me who expected Labour to do much worse due to the Corbyn factor.
You clearly don't understand campaigning.
Each party will set out to win, with the exception of The Raving Loonies etc the candidate will convince himself he can win. Nobody has ever canvassed saying "I can't win so don't bother voting for me." It is about convincing the electorate that you are both confident and competent. The Ukip candidate will have been sure he was going to win, he has to be or people won't help his campaign. If Ukip had won it would have been one of the biggest electoral shocks ever, few, if any, really thought it likely.
Had a quick look back at Betfair:-
"My instinct says Labour hang on with a vastly reduced majority, but they make no betting appeal whatsoever. I wouldn't be in the least bit surprised were UKIP to edge it, and that must make them the value pick at 4.50. Their chance of victory is better than 22%.
Recommended bet Back UKIP to win the Oldham West & Royton by-election @ 4.50"
Biggest electoral shock ever my a@se!
Can you name a bigger shock than Ukip winning a seat that Labour have held for decades?
No, I thought not.
What price were the Tories to get a mjority at the last election?
So in the last week Remain varies between 48 & 60, Leave between 40 and 52.
They're all guessing, so are punters.
No, guessing is what we did in Oldham when in the absence of polling we imagined UKIP had a cat's chance in hell of taking a north-west seat from Labour.
I don't remember anybody giving Ukip a cat in hell's chance.
That is simply not true, UKIP were definitely expected to run it close, all those Labour voters were supposed to be so pissed off with Corbyn and the "metropolitan elite" that they were going to vote UKIP in droves. There was definitely talk of UKIP possibly winning & Corbyn being finished. The size of Labour's win came as quite a surprisnot least of all to me who expected Labour to do much worse due to the Corbyn factor.
You clearly don't understand campaigning.
Each party will set out to win, with the exception of The Raving Loonies etc the candidate will convince himself he can win. Nobody has ever canvassed saying "I can't win so don't bother voting for me." It is about convincing the electorate that you are both confident and competent. The Ukip candidate will have been sure he was going to win, he has to be or people won't help his campaign. If Ukip had won it would have been one of the biggest electoral shocks ever, few, if any, really thought it likely.
Had a quick look back at Betfair:-
"My instinct says Labour hang on with a vastly reduced majority, but they make no betting appeal whatsoever. I wouldn't be in the least bit surprised were UKIP to edge it, and that must make them the value pick at 4.50. Their chance of victory is better than 22%.
Recommended bet Back UKIP to win the Oldham West & Royton by-election @ 4.50"
Biggest electoral shock ever my a@se!
Can you name a bigger shock than Ukip winning a seat that Labour have held for decades?
No, I thought not.
What price were the Tories to get a mjority at the last election?
When? Prices fluctuate.
6/1 in the run up to the election I believe....
So what's your point?
And this run up - a week before, a month, 6 months?
I'd hazard a guess I'm closer to Ukip than most on here, they were hopeful of a good show in Oldham, Bickley is a top bloke, the chances of wrestling a seat like that from Labour are negligible at best and Ukip knows it.
Splendid but don't Don't Knows historically break for the status quo.
Well as we all know - there is no status quo. It is either ever further integration or it is a clean break.
Unfortunately few in the Leave camp are making that argument, they are letting the Remain side push the idea that a vote for remain is a vote for the status quo, this is where the election will be won and lost. Very few people in the UK wish to be part of the EU superstate, Leave needs to show that a Remain vote clears the way for this to be achieved and that we will be a part of it or be carping from the sidelines completely and utterly ignored given our opt-outs. We need to be completely in or completely out, Remain is a vote for completely in.
That gets little traction because most people know we can always have another referendum further down the line if things progress in a direction we don't like.
Remain is the status quo unless we choose otherwise, we cannot be forced to join the Euro,, forced to join Schengen or be forced to agree to Turkey joining etc etc.
The uncertainty effect
While the referendum would settle the issue of EU membership once and for all, many aspects of the UK’s international and domestic economic policy framework would be put in doubt, leading to a significant rise in uncertainty.
(Treasury report 2016)
So sorry - there will be no further referendum. Quite clear.
I wonder if Hofer and his party will see this as a high tide from which their support recedes, or if they can build on the result.
Well they are quite far ahead in the national polls for their 2018 elections, they have between a 10 and 13 point lead over the next party. The CDU fellow I know in Germany says that once people have overcome the taboo of voting for a right wing party in Germany they tend to do a lot better in future elections, AfD have profited from this at the CDU's expense. If the same is true in Austria (another nation which has collective war guilt) then this may be a watershed moment for the FPO regardless. Having 50% of people voting for a right wing party that is anti-immigrant may mean thos people find it easier to do so in the general election. UKIP use the European elections as a platform to build on in the UK, they received 4.3m votes in the 2014 EU election, then in 2015 they followed it up with 3.9m votes compared to 0.9m in 2010.
Do the Austrians collectively feel any guilt for WW2? It's not a country I know well, but the presudential vote reflects what I have sensed when I've been there - around half the country feels that Austria has nothing to apologise for and the other 50% does. This is the country of Haider and Waldheim, after all.
Why not go for the big one, Boris and Ken have done it!
I don't know how large that collective is, as I said, it may help the FPO at the GE, just as AfD are helped by the taboo being broken.
OllyT said: Richard_Nabavi said: Plato_Says said: Asa Bennett Great @EdConwaySky blog asking why the Treasury ignored EEA option for Britain post-Brexit https://t.co/Ojhx7kJI8R
See what you think of it.
What a strange post. The Leave campaigns have all ruled out the EEA option, and indeed much, perhaps most, of their campaign is about immigration. So why on earth would the Treasury analyse an option which isn't being proposed by anyone? Many people advocating Leave don't even understand what they are proposing. I had to point out to a fan of the sainted Dan Hannan yesterday that he is actually advocating a post-Brexit option (EEA) that Gove and Boris have explicitly ruled out. He was somewhat non-plussed,
-------------------
If Leave does scrape a win it's going to be a hoot sitting back and watches what happens next.
Could be a mass Chicken Licken Convention. Meanwhile, across the channel, I anticipate, merde a frappé le ventilateur"
So in the last week Remain varies between 48 & 60, Leave between 40 and 52.
They're all guessing, so are punters.
No, guessing is what we did in Oldham when in the absence of polling we imagined UKIP had a cat's chance in hell of taking a north-west seat from Labour.
I don't remember anybody giving Ukip a cat in hell's chance.
That is simply not true, UKIP were definitely expected to run it close, all those Labour voters were supposed to be so pissed off with Corbyn and the "metropolitan elite" that they were going to vote UKIP in droves. There was definitely talk of UKIP possibly winning & Corbyn being finished. The size of Labour's win came as quite a surprisnot least of all to me who expected Labour to do much worse due to the Corbyn factor.
You clearly don't understand campaigning.
Each party will set out to win, with the exception of The Raving Loonies etc the candidate will convince himself he can win. Nobody has ever canvassed saying "I can't win so don't bother voting for me." It is about convincing the electorate that you are both confident and competent. The Ukip candidate will have been sure he was going to win, he has to be or people won't help his campaign. If Ukip had won it would have been one of the biggest electoral shocks ever, few, if any, really thought it likely.
Had a quick look back at Betfair:-
"My instinct says Labour hang on with a vastly reduced majority, but they make no betting appeal whatsoever. I wouldn't be in the least bit surprised were UKIP to edge it, and that must make them the value pick at 4.50. Their chance of victory is better than 22%.
Recommended bet Back UKIP to win the Oldham West & Royton by-election @ 4.50"
Biggest electoral shock ever my a@se!
Can you name a bigger shock than Ukip winning a seat that Labour have held for decades?
No, I thought not.
UKIP would have needed a 17% swing, which according to Wikipedia, would have even registered in the 20 largest by-election swings of recent years. So yes there are at least 20 bigger "shocks" right there.
Instead there was actually a swing to Labour!
Sometimes you just have to know when to stop digging
Only from the perspective that it's funny to watch the lefties get really angry with this sort of thing. Ultimately, however, this is someone else's country and it is up to them who they vote for. I couldn't tell you what either candidate stands for, only that one has been labelled far right by media outlets who shy away from ever describing politicians as far left.
They're a strongly nationalist, anti migrant, anti immigration, Islamo-sceptic party founded by an ex Nazi minister and SS officer. What kind of right would you describe them as?
"My instinct says Labour hang on with a vastly reduced majority, but they make no betting appeal whatsoever. I wouldn't be in the least bit surprised were UKIP to edge it, and that must make them the value pick at 4.50. Their chance of victory is better than 22%.
Recommended bet Back UKIP to win the Oldham West & Royton by-election @ 4.50"
Biggest electoral shock ever my a@se!
Can you name a bigger shock than Ukip winning a seat that Labour have held for decades?
No, I thought not.
What price were the Tories to get a mjority at the last election?
When? Prices fluctuate.
6/1 in the run up to the election I believe....
So what's your point?
And this run up - a week before, a month, 6 months?
I'd hazard a guess I'm closer to Ukip than most on here, they were hopeful of a good show in Oldham, Bickley is a top bloke, the chances of wrestling a seat like that from Labour are negligible at best and Ukip knows it.
The point is you asked Olly whether he could name a bigger shock than UKIP winning in Oldham.
As 6/1 (bigger on Betfair) is a longer price than 7/2 it's a bigger shock.
And they were 7/1 on the 29th of April 2015 to answer your other point.
So in the last week Remain varies between 48 & 60, Leave between 40 and 52.
They're all guessing, so are punters.
No, guessing is what we did in Oldham when in the absence of polling we imagined UKIP had a cat's chance in hell of taking a north-west seat from Labour.
I don't remember anybody giving Ukip a cat in hell's chance.
That is simply not true, UKIP were definitely expected to run it close, all those Labour voters were supposed to be so pissed off with Corbyn and the "metropolitan elite" that they were going to vote UKIP in droves. There was definitely talk of UKIP possibly winning & Corbyn being finished. The size of Labour's win came as quite a surprisnot least of all to me who expected Labour to do much worse due to the Corbyn factor.
You clearly don't understand campaigning.
Each party will set out to win, with the exception of The Raving Loonies etc the candidate will convince himself he can win. Nobody has ever canvassed saying "I can't win so don't bother voting for me." It is about convincing the electorate that you are both confident and competent. The Ukip candidate will have been sure he was going to win, he has to be or people won't help his campaign. If Ukip had won it would have been one of the biggest electoral shocks ever, few, if any, really thought it likely.
Had a quick look back at Betfair:-
"My instinct says Labour hang on with a vastly reduced majority, but they make no betting appeal whatsoever. I wouldn't be in the least bit surprised were UKIP to edge it, and that must make them the value pick at 4.50. Their chance of victory is better than 22%.
Recommended bet Back UKIP to win the Oldham West & Royton by-election @ 4.50"
Biggest electoral shock ever my a@se!
Can you name a bigger shock than Ukip winning a seat that Labour have held for decades?
No, I thought not.
UKIP would have needed a 17% swing, which according to Wikipedia, would have even registered in the 20 largest by-election swings of recent years. So yes there are at least 20 bigger "shocks" right there.
Instead there was actually a swing to Labour!
Sometimes you just have to know when to stop digging
Oh I see, in dozens of General Elections, where hundreds of seats are contested, totalling tens of thousands, this would have been in the top 20. No big deal eh?
You see I'm not sure of the point you're trying to make, anybody would think it was a major shock that Labour held on to a seat they'd held for decades, it really wasn't.
"My instinct says Labour hang on with a vastly reduced majority, but they make no betting appeal whatsoever. I wouldn't be in the least bit surprised were UKIP to edge it, and that must make them the value pick at 4.50. Their chance of victory is better than 22%.
Recommended bet Back UKIP to win the Oldham West & Royton by-election @ 4.50"
Biggest electoral shock ever my a@se!
Can you name a bigger shock than Ukip winning a seat that Labour have held for decades?
No, I thought not.
What price were the Tories to get a mjority at the last election?
When? Prices fluctuate.
6/1 in the run up to the election I believe....
So what's your point?
And this run up - a week before, a month, 6 months?
I'd hazard a guess I'm closer to Ukip than most on here, they were hopeful of a good show in Oldham, Bickley is a top bloke, the chances of wrestling a seat like that from Labour are negligible at best and Ukip knows it.
The point is you asked Olly whether he could name a bigger shock than UKIP winning in Oldham.
As 6/1 (bigger on Betfair) is a longer price than 7/2 it's a bigger shock.
And they were 7/1 on the 29th of April 2015 to answer your other point.
This site is full of people who clearly don't understand betting, I pointed this out last week.
A month before the GE I was 9/4 to become an MP, one afternoon I went out to 16/1.
So in the last week Remain varies between 48 & 60, Leave between 40 and 52.
They're all guessing, so are punters.
No, guessing is what we did in Oldham when in the absence of polling we imagined UKIP had a cat's chance in hell of taking a north-west seat from Labour.
I don't remember anybody giving Ukip a cat in hell's chance.
That is simply not true, UKIP were definitely expected to run it close, all those Labour voters were supposed to be so pissed off with Corbyn and the "metropolitan elite" that they were going to vote UKIP in droves. There was definitely talk of UKIP possibly winning & Corbyn being finished. The size of Labour's win came as quite a surprisnot least of all to me who expected Labour to do much worse due to the Corbyn factor.
You clearly don't understand campaigning.
Had a quick look back at Betfair:-
"My instinct says Labour hang on with a vastly reduced majority, but they make no betting appeal whatsoever. I wouldn't be in the least bit surprised were UKIP to edge it, and that must make them the value pick at 4.50. Their chance of victory is better than 22%.
Recommended bet Back UKIP to win the Oldham West & Royton by-election @ 4.50"
Biggest electoral shock ever my a@se!
Can you name a bigger shock than Ukip winning a seat that Labour have held for decades?
No, I thought not.
UKIP would have needed a 17% swing, which according to Wikipedia, would have even registered in the 20 largest by-election swings of recent years. So yes there are at least 20 bigger "shocks" right there.
Instead there was actually a swing to Labour!
Sometimes you just have to know when to stop digging
Oh I see, in dozens of General Elections, where hundreds of seats are contested, totalling tens of thousands, this would have been in the top 20. No big deal eh?
You see I'm not sure of the point you're trying to make, anybody would think it was a major shock that Labour held on to a seat they'd held for decades, it really wasn't.
You sir, are a complete fool.
Loose the argument, resort to personal abuse, about sums up you and your party .
Only from the perspective that it's funny to watch the lefties get really angry with this sort of thing. Ultimately, however, this is someone else's country and it is up to them who they vote for. I couldn't tell you what either candidate stands for, only that one has been labelled far right by media outlets who shy away from ever describing politicians as far left.
They're a strongly nationalist, anti migrant, anti immigration, Islamo-sceptic party founded by an ex Nazi minister and SS officer. What kind of right would you describe them as?
I'm not sure I would describe it as right wing at all...but that's another discussion.
So in the last week Remain varies between 48 & 60, Leave between 40 and 52.
They're all guessing, so are punters.
No, guessing is what we did in Oldham when in the absence of polling we imagined UKIP had a cat's chance in hell of taking a north-west seat from Labour.
I don't remember anybody giving Ukip a cat in hell's chance.
That is simply not true, UKIP were definitely expected to run it close, all those Labour voters were supposed to be so pissed off with Corbyn and the "metropolitan elite" that they were going to vote UKIP in droves. There was definitely talk of UKIP possibly winning & Corbyn being finished. The size of Labour's win came as quite a surprisnot least of all to me who expected Labour to do much worse due to the Corbyn factor.
You clearly don't understand campaigning.
Had a quick look back at Betfair:-
"My instinct says Labour hang on with a vastly reduced majority, but they make no betting appeal whatsoever. I wouldn't be in the least bit surprised were UKIP to edge it, and that must make them the value pick at 4.50. Their chance of victory is better than 22%.
Recommended bet Back UKIP to win the Oldham West & Royton by-election @ 4.50"
Biggest electoral shock ever my a@se!
Can you name a bigger shock than Ukip winning a seat that Labour have held for decades?
No, I thought not.
UKIP would have needed a 17% swing, which according to Wikipedia, would have even registered in the 20 largest by-election swings of recent years. So yes there are at least 20 bigger "shocks" right there.
Instead there was actually a swing to Labour!
Sometimes you just have to know when to stop digging
Oh I see, in dozens of General Elections, where hundreds of seats are contested, totalling tens of thousands, this would have been in the top 20. No big deal eh?
You see I'm not sure of the point you're trying to make, anybody would think it was a major shock that Labour held on to a seat they'd held for decades, it really wasn't.
You sir, are a complete fool.
Loose the argument, resort to personal abuse, about sums up you and your party .
I've lost no argument, you have confirmed that in the tens of thousands of parliamentary elections, Ukip winning in Oldham would have been in the top 20 biggest swings and therefore something of a shock.
Each party will set out to win, with the exception of The Raving Loonies etc the candidate will convince himself he can win. Nobody has ever canvassed saying "I can't win so don't bother voting for me." It is about convincing the electorate that you are both confident and competent. The Ukip candidate will have been sure he was going to win, he has to be or people won't help his campaign. If Ukip had won it would have been one of the biggest electoral shocks ever, few, if any, really thought it likely.
Had a quick look back at Betfair:-
"My instinct says Labour hang on with a vastly reduced majority, but they make no betting appeal whatsoever. I wouldn't be in the least bit surprised were UKIP to edge it, and that must make them the value pick at 4.50. Their chance of victory is better than 22%.
Recommended bet Back UKIP to win the Oldham West & Royton by-election @ 4.50"
Biggest electoral shock ever my a@se!
Can you name a bigger shock than Ukip winning a seat that Labour have held for decades?
No, I thought not.
UKIP would have needed a 17% swing, which according to Wikipedia, would have even registered in the 20 largest by-election swings of recent years. So yes there are at least 20 bigger "shocks" right there.
Instead there was actually a swing to Labour!
Sometimes you just have to know when to stop digging
Oh I see, in dozens of General Elections, where hundreds of seats are contested, totalling tens of thousands, this would have been in the top 20. No big deal eh?
You see I'm not sure of the point you're trying to make, anybody would think it was a major shock that Labour held on to a seat they'd held for decades, it really wasn't.
And re your comment, it wasn't a general election though, was it? By-elections routinely have larger swings than GE's, and are seen by the public as an opportunity to protest. A year earlier, UKIP won two by-elections (becoming only the fourth party since WWII to win two by-elections in the same year). They very nearly won a third in a contest just down the road. OW&R had potential for UKIP with a votership which back in 2001 (admittedly a while before) gave more than 15% to the BNP. And the opportunity was potentially there for UKIP with none of the three main parties setting the world alight with their popularity.
In fact, it was something of a missed opportunity for Team farage.
"My instinct says Labour hang on with a vastly reduced majority, but they make no betting appeal whatsoever. I wouldn't be in the least bit surprised were UKIP to edge it, and that must make them the value pick at 4.50. Their chance of victory is better than 22%.
Recommended bet Back UKIP to win the Oldham West & Royton by-election @ 4.50"
Biggest electoral shock ever my a@se!
Can you name a bigger shock than Ukip winning a seat that Labour have held for decades?
No, I thought not.
What price were the Tories to get a mjority at the last election?
When? Prices fluctuate.
6/1 in the run up to the election I believe....
So what's your point?
And this run up - a week before, a month, 6 months?
I'd hazard a guess I'm closer to Ukip than most on here, they were hopeful of a good show in Oldham, Bickley is a top bloke, the chances of wrestling a seat like that from Labour are negligible at best and Ukip knows it.
The point is you asked Olly whether he could name a bigger shock than UKIP winning in Oldham.
As 6/1 (bigger on Betfair) is a longer price than 7/2 it's a bigger shock.
And they were 7/1 on the 29th of April 2015 to answer your other point.
This site is full of people who clearly don't understand betting, I pointed this out last week.
A month before the GE I was 9/4 to become an MP, one afternoon I went out to 16/1.
Now scratch your head and think about that.
I'd hazard a guess I know considerably more about betting than you. Just accept you are wrong and making yourself look increasingly foolish.
"My instinct says Labour hang on with a vastly reduced majority, but they make no betting appeal whatsoever. I wouldn't be in the least bit surprised were UKIP to edge it, and that must make them the value pick at 4.50. Their chance of victory is better than 22%.
Recommended bet Back UKIP to win the Oldham West & Royton by-election @ 4.50"
Biggest electoral shock ever my a@se!
Can you name a bigger shock than Ukip winning a seat that Labour have held for decades?
No, I thought not.
What price were the Tories to get a mjority at the last election?
When? Prices fluctuate.
6/1 in the run up to the election I believe....
So what's your point?
And this run up - a week before, a month, 6 months?
I'd hazard a guess I'm closer to Ukip than most on here, they were hopeful of a good show in Oldham, Bickley is a top bloke, the chances of wrestling a seat like that from Labour are negligible at best and Ukip knows it.
The point is you asked Olly whether he could name a bigger shock than UKIP winning in Oldham.
As 6/1 (bigger on Betfair) is a longer price than 7/2 it's a bigger shock.
And they were 7/1 on the 29th of April 2015 to answer your other point.
This site is full of people who clearly don't understand betting, I pointed this out last week.
A month before the GE I was 9/4 to become an MP, one afternoon I went out to 16/1.
Now scratch your head and think about that.
I'd hazard a guess I know considerably more about betting than you. Just accept you are wrong and making yourself look increasingly foolish.
OK, you know about betting, price this up for me.
For Ukip to win in Oldham they needed a 17% swing according to OllyT, in thousands of previous parliamentary elections it had happened 20 times.
So in the last week Remain varies between 48 & 60, Leave between 40 and 52.
They're all guessing, so are punters.
No, guessing is what we did in Oldham when in the absence of polling we imagined UKIP had a cat's chance in hell of taking a north-west seat from Labour.
I don't remember anybody giving Ukip a cat in hell's chance.
That is simply not true, UKIP were definitely expected to run it close, all those Labour voters were supposed to be so pissed off with Corbyn and the "metropolitan elite" that they were going to vote UKIP in droves. There was definitely talk of UKIP possibly winning & Corbyn being finished. The size of Labour's win came as quite a surprisnot least of all to me who expected Labour to do much worse due to the Corbyn factor.
You clearly don't understand campaigning.
Had a quick look back at Betfair:-
"My instinct says Labour hang on with a vastly reduced majority, but they make no betting appeal whatsoever. I wouldn't be in the least bit surprised were UKIP to edge it, and that must make them the value pick at 4.50. Their chance of victory is better than 22%.
Recommended bet Back UKIP to win the Oldham West & Royton by-election @ 4.50"
Biggest electoral shock ever my a@se!
Can you name a bigger shock than Ukip winning a seat that Labour have held for decades?
No, I thought not.
UKIP would have needed a 17% swing, which according to Wikipedia, would have even registered in the 20 largest by-election swings of recent years. So yes there are at least 20 bigger "shocks" right there.
Instead there was actually a swing to Labour!
Sometimes you just have to know when to stop digging
Oh I see, in dozens of General Elections, where hundreds of seats are contested, totalling tens of thousands, this would have been in the top 20. No big deal eh?
You see I'm not sure of the point you're trying to make, anybody would think it was a major shock that Labour held on to a seat they'd held for decades, it really wasn't.
You sir, are a complete fool.
Loose the argument, resort to personal abuse, about sums up you and your party .
This might sound like I'm talking through my pocket slightly - but was Bellen a bit understated in the analysis because so many media commentors were "worried" about Hofer winning ?
"More than twice as many — 55 per cent — of FTSE 100 companies felt that EU membership had a positive impact compared with 24 per cent of the FTSE 250."
Only from the perspective that it's funny to watch the lefties get really angry with this sort of thing. Ultimately, however, this is someone else's country and it is up to them who they vote for. I couldn't tell you what either candidate stands for, only that one has been labelled far right by media outlets who shy away from ever describing politicians as far left.
They're a strongly nationalist, anti migrant, anti immigration, Islamo-sceptic party founded by an ex Nazi minister and SS officer. What kind of right would you describe them as?
Remainian 'honesty' from Gauke, "If we wanted to put a much more dramatic, scary report together there are a number of things we could have included in this report that we simply did not."
So in the last week Remain varies between 48 & 60, Leave between 40 and 52.
They're all guessing, so are punters.
No, guessing is what we did in Oldham when in the absence of polling we imagined UKIP had a cat's chance in hell of taking a north-west seat from Labour.
I don't remember anybody giving Ukip a cat in hell's chance.
That is simply not true, UKIP were definitely expected to run it close, all those Labour voters were supposed to be so pissed off with Corbyn and the "metropolitan elite" that they were going to vote UKIP in droves. There was definitely talk of UKIP possibly winning & Corbyn being finished. The size of Labour's win came as quite a surprisnot least of all to me who expected Labour to do much worse due to the Corbyn factor.
You clearly don't understand campaigning.
Had a quick look back at Betfair:-
"My instinct says Labour hang on with a vastly reduced majority, but they make no betting appeal whatsoever. I wouldn't be in the least bit surprised were UKIP to edge it, and that must make them the value pick at 4.50. Their chance of victory is better than 22%.
Recommended bet Back UKIP to win the Oldham West & Royton by-election @ 4.50"
Biggest electoral shock ever my a@se!
Can you name a bigger shock than Ukip winning a seat that Labour have held for decades?
No, I thought not.
UKIP would have needed a 17% swing, which according to Wikipedia, would have even registered in the 20 largest by-election swings of recent years. So yes there are at least 20 bigger "shocks" right there.
Instead there was actually a swing to Labour!
Sometimes you just have to know when to stop digging
Oh I see, in dozens of General Elections, where hundreds of seats are contested, totalling tens of thousands, this would have been in the top 20. No big deal eh?
You see I'm not sure of the point you're trying to make, anybody would think it was a major shock that Labour held on to a seat they'd held for decades, it really wasn't.
You sir, are a complete fool.
Loose the argument, resort to personal abuse, about sums up you and your party .
Warning: NewLabour edukashun on the loose..
I wish, but I'm 65 - more prosaic reason, the predictive spelling on my Iaptop.
For Ukip to win in Oldham they needed a 17% swing according to OllyT, in thousands of previous parliamentary elections it had happened 20 times.
What price would you have laid Ukip at?
What price I would have laid UKIP at is completely irrelevant. You (quite rudely) suggested that there wouldn't have been a bigger shock than UKIP winning in Oldham.
It's been pointed out that here have been winners bigger in both terms of swing and odds available.
For Ukip to win in Oldham they needed a 17% swing according to OllyT, in thousands of previous parliamentary elections it had happened 20 times.
What price would you have laid Ukip at?
What price I would have laid UKIP at is completely irrelevant. You (quite rudely) suggested that there wouldn't have been a bigger shock than UKIP winning in Oldham.
It's been pointed out that here have been winners bigger in both terms of swing and odds available.
Yes, in tens of thousands of elections its happened 20 times.
Still, you understand betting, you'll get my point.
I wonder if Hofer and his party will see this as a high tide from which their support recedes, or if they can build on the result.
Well they are quite far ahead in the national polls for their 2018 elections, they have between a 10 and 13 point lead over the next party. The CDU fellow I know in Germany says that once people have overcome the taboo of voting for a right wing party in Germany they tend to do a lot better in future elections, AfD have profited from this at the CDU's expense. If the same is true in Austria (another nation which has collective war guilt) then this may be a watershed moment for the FPO regardless. Having 50% of people voting for a right wing party that is anti-immigrant may mean thos people find it easier to do so in the general election. UKIP use the European elections as a platform to build on in the UK, they received 4.3m votes in the 2014 EU election, then in 2015 they followed it up with 3.9m votes compared to 0.9m in 2010.
Do the Austrians collectively feel any guilt for WW2? It's not a country I know well, but the presudential vote reflects what I have sensed when I've been there - around half the country feels that Austria has nothing to apologise for and the other 50% does. This is the country of Haider and Waldheim, after all.
Why not go for the big one, Boris and Ken have done it!
I don't know how large that collective is, as I said, it may help the FPO at the GE, just as AfD are helped by the taboo being broken.
My point was that even after Adolf a lot of Austrians have not been shy about supporting ex--Nazis and the far right. In that way it is very different to Germany.
For Ukip to win in Oldham they needed a 17% swing according to OllyT, in thousands of previous parliamentary elections it had happened 20 times.
What price would you have laid Ukip at?
What price I would have laid UKIP at is completely irrelevant. You (quite rudely) suggested that there wouldn't have been a bigger shock than UKIP winning in Oldham.
It's been pointed out that here have been winners bigger in both terms of swing and odds available.
Yes, in tens of thousands of elections its happened 20 times.
Still, you understand betting, you'll get my point.
There haven't been "tens of thousands" of by-elections.
For Ukip to win in Oldham they needed a 17% swing according to OllyT, in thousands of previous parliamentary elections it had happened 20 times.
What price would you have laid Ukip at?
What price I would have laid UKIP at is completely irrelevant. You (quite rudely) suggested that there wouldn't have been a bigger shock than UKIP winning in Oldham.
It's been pointed out that here have been winners bigger in both terms of swing and odds available.
Yes, in tens of thousands of elections its happened 20 times.
Still, you understand betting, you'll get my point.
I'm absolutely clueless as to what point you're trying to make. I suspect that makes two of us. Sometimes its best to admit you are wrong. If you can't do that then probably best to stop arguing though.....
I wonder if Hofer and his party will see this as a high tide from which their support recedes, or if they can build on the result.
Well they are quite far ahead in the national polls for their 2018 elections, they have between a 10 and 13 point lead over the next party. The CDU fellow I know in Germany says that once people have overcome the taboo of voting for a right wing party in Germany they tend to do a lot better in future elections, AfD have profited from this at the CDU's expense. If the same is true in Austria (another nation which has collective war guilt) then this may be a watershed moment for the FPO regardless. Having 50% of people voting for a right wing party that is anti-immigrant may mean thos people find it easier to do so in the general election. UKIP use the European elections as a platform to build on in the UK, they received 4.3m votes in the 2014 EU election, then in 2015 they followed it up with 3.9m votes compared to 0.9m in 2010.
Do the Austrians collectively feel any guilt for WW2? It's not a country I know well, but the presudential vote reflects what I have sensed when I've been there - around half the country feels that Austria has nothing to apologise for and the other 50% does. This is the country of Haider and Waldheim, after all.
Why not go for the big one, Boris and Ken have done it!
I don't know how large that collective is, as I said, it may help the FPO at the GE, just as AfD are helped by the taboo being broken.
My point was that even after Adolf a lot of Austrians have not been shy about supporting ex--Nazis and the far right. In that way it is very different to Germany.
The majority have though, FPO have only ever scored 20% in the Austrian GE which was an all time high in 2013, just now 50% of voters just voted for them, a very large proportion will have been first time FPO supporters who may return to vote for them in the GE in 2018, the same cannot be said for the Green candidate who won, where the vast majority of the votes will have been lent.
Even in the low turnout EU elections they scored 20% as the only Eurosceptic party on the ballot paper. I don't think Austria is the nation of right wing fanatics you think it is!
Edit: FPO won 960k votes in 2013, and 2.2m votes just now in the run off. Loads of first time voters who have now, for the first time, voted for a right wing party. It is a massive win for them, even if the final result didn't go their way.
For Ukip to win in Oldham they needed a 17% swing according to OllyT, in thousands of previous parliamentary elections it had happened 20 times.
What price would you have laid Ukip at?
What price I would have laid UKIP at is completely irrelevant. You (quite rudely) suggested that there wouldn't have been a bigger shock than UKIP winning in Oldham.
It's been pointed out that here have been winners bigger in both terms of swing and odds available.
Yes, in tens of thousands of elections its happened 20 times.
Still, you understand betting, you'll get my point.
I'm absolutely clueless as to what point you're trying to make. I suspect that makes two of us. Sometimes its best to admit you are wrong. If you can't do that then probably best to stop arguing though.....
I'll make myself clear.
I've said all along few people thought Ukip had a serious chance of winning, you may have considered they had an excellent chance and bet accordingly.
I thought they would do better than they did.
You can read and write, have a go at comprehension.
I wonder if Hofer and his party will see this as a high tide from which their support recedes, or if they can build on the result.
Well they are quite far ahead in the national polls for their 2018 elections, they have between a 10 and 13 point lead over the next party. The CDU fellow I know in Germany says that once people have overcome the taboo of voting for a right wing party in Germany they tend to do a lot better in future elections, AfD have profited from this at the CDU's expense. If the same is true in Austria (another nation which has collective war guilt) then this may be a watershed moment for the FPO regardless. Having 50% of people voting for a right wing party that is anti-immigrant may mean thos people find it easier to do so in the general election. UKIP use the European elections as a platform to build on in the UK, they received 4.3m votes in the 2014 EU election, then in 2015 they followed it up with 3.9m votes compared to 0.9m in 2010.
Do the Austrians collectively feel any guilt for WW2? It's not a country I know well, but the presudential vote reflects what I have sensed when I've been there - around half the country feels that Austria has nothing to apologise for and the other 50% does. This is the country of Haider and Waldheim, after all.
Why not go for the big one, Boris and Ken have done it!
I don't know how large that collective is, as I said, it may help the FPO at the GE, just as AfD are helped by the taboo being broken.
My point was that even after Adolf a lot of Austrians have not been shy about supporting ex--Nazis and the far right. In that way it is very different to Germany.
The majority have though, FPO have only ever scored 20% in the Austrian GE which was an all time high in 2013, just now 50% of voters just voted for them, a very large proportion will have been first time FPO supporters who may return to vote for them in the GE in 2018, the same cannot be said for the Green candidate who won, where the vast majority of the votes will have been lent.
Europe's first Green Head of State? Charlie Windsor will be next.
Mr. Observer, I wonder if it might be like the SNP whereby their opponents united in a referendum but this meant, come the General Election, the SNP retained circa half the votes, and the non-SNP half splintered.
Unfamiliar with the Austrian Parliamentary system, though, so no idea if that would transfer so easily.
Also, there are substantial differences between the two parties (SNP wanting independence, the historical nature of the far right in Austria etc).
Only from the perspective that it's funny to watch the lefties get really angry with this sort of thing. Ultimately, however, this is someone else's country and it is up to them who they vote for. I couldn't tell you what either candidate stands for, only that one has been labelled far right by media outlets who shy away from ever describing politicians as far left.
They're a strongly nationalist, anti migrant, anti immigration, Islamo-sceptic party founded by an ex Nazi minister and SS officer. What kind of right would you describe them as?
I'm not sure I would describe it as right wing at all...but that's another discussion.
Let me put it another way, how would you define a far right party - policies, examples etc?
Again, going back to my conversation with the CDU fellow I know, he sees Austria as one or two steps ahead of the curve and AfD in the same insurgent position as the FPO. They are worried that in a few cycles AfD will become the largest single party in the Bundestag, and the CDU, SPD, Greens and possibly the FDP will have to band together as a coalition of losers to keep them out.
Remainian 'honesty' from Gauke, "If we wanted to put a much more dramatic, scary report together there are a number of things we could have included in this report that we simply did not."
Balance of payments deficit? National debt figures? Photo of George?
Off topic. I really hope the BBC can peel Armando Iannucci away from HBO for long enough to get three specials of TTOI made.
Election special, including EdStone, the bewildered opposition after the exit poll and a bewildered Conservative party after winning
Labour leadership battle, Malcolm is out of prison and is working for the Burnham character and losing
The EU election with Mannion either as a major part of the Leave campaign buggering everything up all the time like Boris or as a reluctant part of the Remain campaign getting his lines wrong all the time (opposite of Boris or the same as Javid).
So in the last week Remain varies between 48 & 60, Leave between 40 and 52.
They're all guessing, so are punters.
No, guessing is what we did in Oldham when in the absence of polling we imagined UKIP had a cat's chance in hell of taking a north-west seat from Labour.
I don't remember anybody giving Ukip a cat in hell's chance.
That is simply not true, UKIP were definitely expected to run it close, all those Labour voters were supposed to be so pissed off with Corbyn and the "metropolitan elite" that they were going to vote UKIP in droves. There was definitely talk of UKIP possibly winning & Corbyn being finished. The size of Labour's win came as quite a surprisnot least of all to me who expected Labour to do much worse due to the Corbyn factor.
You clearly don't understand campaigning.
Had a quick look back at Betfair:-
"My instinct says Labour hang on with a vastly reduced majority, but they make no betting appeal whatsoever. I wouldn't be in the least bit surprised were UKIP to edge it, and that must make them the value pick at 4.50. Their chance of victory is better than 22%.
Recommended bet Back UKIP to win the Oldham West & Royton by-election @ 4.50"
Biggest electoral shock ever my a@se!
Can you name a bigger shock than Ukip winning a seat that Labour have held for decades?
No, I thought not.
UKIP would have needed a 17% swing, which according to Wikipedia, would have even registered in the 20 largest by-election swings of recent years. So yes there are at least 20 bigger "shocks" right there.
Instead there was actually a swing to Labour!
Sometimes you just have to know when to stop digging
Oh I see, in dozens of General Elections, where hundreds of seats are contested, totalling tens of thousands, this would have been in the top 20. No big deal eh?
You see I'm not sure of the point you're trying to make, anybody would think it was a major shock that Labour held on to a seat they'd held for decades, it really wasn't.
You sir, are a complete fool.
Loose the argument, resort to personal abuse, about sums up you and your party .
I wish, but I'm 65 - more prosaic reason, the predictive spelling on my Iaptop.
As a matter of interest, how do I get predictive spelling/text on my laptop (as opposed to on my smartphone)?
Mr 63. I really can't be arsed with this, however, for the last time.
Whatever your views. local knowledge, amazing betting insights on the Oldham byelection were, the unarguable fact is that on Betfair UKIP were approximately a 7/2 chance. You then asked whether it was possible to name a bigger shock than would have been the case had they won said byelection and suggested it would be impossible or at least difficult to do so.......so far so good?
Its since been established that several larger price selections have indeed obliged, and indeed that in many cases a larger swing than UKIP required has been achieved. Thus had Ukip prevailed it really, really, really wouldn't have been the political equivalent of Leicester winning the league.
This means you were WRONG, INCORRECT, ERRONEOUS in your assumption. Admit it, to yourself at least.
The majority have though, FPO have only ever scored 20% in the Austrian GE which was an all time high in 2013, just now 50% of voters just voted for them, a very large proportion will have been first time FPO supporters who may return to vote for them in the GE in 2018, the same cannot be said for the Green candidate who won, where the vast majority of the votes will have been lent.
Even in the low turnout EU elections they scored 20% as the only Eurosceptic party on the ballot paper. I don't think Austria is the nation of right wing fanatics you think it is!
Edit: FPO won 960k votes in 2013, and 2.2m votes just now in the run off. Loads of first time voters who have now, for the first time, voted for a right wing party. It is a massive win for them, even if the final result didn't go their way.
It also shows just how fractured a lot of countries are. 50% of the country are voting for a radical Leftist Green who wants to let more asylum seekers in, while 50% are voting for a radical right wing candidate who wants to clamp down very sharply on immigration.
I wonder if Hofer and his party will see this as a high tide from which their support recedes, or if they can build on the result.
Well they are quite far ahead in the national polls for their 2018 elections, they have between a 10 and 13 point lead over the next party. The CDU fellow I know in Germany says that once people have overcome the taboo of voting for a right wing party in Germany they tend to do a lot better in future elections, AfD have profited from this at the CDU's expense. If the same is true in Austria (another nation which has collective war guilt) then this may be a watershed moment for the FPO regardless. Having 50% of people voting for a right wing party that is anti-immigrant may mean thos people find it easier to do so in the general election. UKIP use the European elections as a platform to build on in the UK, they received 4.3m votes in the 2014 EU election, then in 2015 they followed it up with 3.9m votes compared to 0.9m in 2010.
Do the Austrians collectively feel any guilt for WW2? It's not a country I know well, but the presudential vote reflects what I have sensed when I've been there - around half the country feels that Austria has nothing to apologise for and the other 50% does. This is the country of Haider and Waldheim, after all.
Why not go for the big one, Boris and Ken have done it!
I don't know how large that collective is, as I said, it may help the FPO at the GE, just as AfD are helped by the taboo being broken.
My point was that even after Adolf a lot of Austrians have not been shy about supporting ex--Nazis and the far right. In that way it is very different to Germany.
The problem Austria has is that at the end of the war it was treated as a victim not an aggressor. This has removed the sense of guilt felt by Germans in the post war years.
The majority have though, FPO have only ever scored 20% in the Austrian GE which was an all time high in 2013, just now 50% of voters just voted for them, a very large proportion will have been first time FPO supporters who may return to vote for them in the GE in 2018, the same cannot be said for the Green candidate who won, where the vast majority of the votes will have been lent.
Even in the low turnout EU elections they scored 20% as the only Eurosceptic party on the ballot paper. I don't think Austria is the nation of right wing fanatics you think it is!
Edit: FPO won 960k votes in 2013, and 2.2m votes just now in the run off. Loads of first time voters who have now, for the first time, voted for a right wing party. It is a massive win for them, even if the final result didn't go their way.
It also shows just how fractured a lot of countries are. 50% of the country are voting for a radical Leftist Green who wants to let more asylum seekers in, while 50% are voting for a radical right wing candidate who wants to clamp down very sharply on immigration.
If the reports I read at the weekend are correct more trades unionists voted for Hofer than for VdB. So strange fractures in the electorate and not the traditional left right split.
The majority have though, FPO have only ever scored 20% in the Austrian GE which was an all time high in 2013, just now 50% of voters just voted for them, a very large proportion will have been first time FPO supporters who may return to vote for them in the GE in 2018, the same cannot be said for the Green candidate who won, where the vast majority of the votes will have been lent.
Even in the low turnout EU elections they scored 20% as the only Eurosceptic party on the ballot paper. I don't think Austria is the nation of right wing fanatics you think it is!
Edit: FPO won 960k votes in 2013, and 2.2m votes just now in the run off. Loads of first time voters who have now, for the first time, voted for a right wing party. It is a massive win for them, even if the final result didn't go their way.
It also shows just how fractured a lot of countries are. 50% of the country are voting for a radical Leftist Green who wants to let more asylum seekers in, while 50% are voting for a radical right wing candidate who wants to clamp down very sharply on immigration.
I think a majority of the 50% who voted for the Green candidate won't be pro-immigration as much as they will be anti-FPO.
The majority have though, FPO have only ever scored 20% in the Austrian GE which was an all time high in 2013, just now 50% of voters just voted for them, a very large proportion will have been first time FPO supporters who may return to vote for them in the GE in 2018, the same cannot be said for the Green candidate who won, where the vast majority of the votes will have been lent.
Even in the low turnout EU elections they scored 20% as the only Eurosceptic party on the ballot paper. I don't think Austria is the nation of right wing fanatics you think it is!
Edit: FPO won 960k votes in 2013, and 2.2m votes just now in the run off. Loads of first time voters who have now, for the first time, voted for a right wing party. It is a massive win for them, even if the final result didn't go their way.
It also shows just how fractured a lot of countries are. 50% of the country are voting for a radical Leftist Green who wants to let more asylum seekers in, while 50% are voting for a radical right wing candidate who wants to clamp down very sharply on immigration.
I think a majority of the 50% who voted for the Green candidate won't be pro-immigration as much as they will be anti-FPO.
Hofer: Perhaps people should be asking what has driven 50% of the population to vote for him. You cant dismiss 50% of the population as knuckleaded racists. People only vote for populists when they feel cornered (just as was the case in Germany in 1933.
He wont be the last. I think the problem is that incresingly since the 60's mainstream parties have all adopted a broad approach of increasing technocratism and remoteness and liberal humanism in social policies.
Other views were shut out and marginalised, but slowly the wheels are coming off.
In the UK the most obvious msnifestation is not UKIP but that Labour Psrty Membership collapsed so much that a relatively small number of SJW types were able to join the party and together with existng such members capture it by electing Corbyn.
I wonder if Hofer and his party will see this as a high tide from which their support recedes, or if they can build on the result.
Well they are quite far ahead in the national polls for their 2018 elections, they have between a 10 and 13 point lead over the next party. The CDU fellow I know in Germany says that once people have overcome the taboo of voting for a right wing party in Germany they tend to do a lot better in future elections, AfD have profited from this at the CDU's expense. If the same is true in Austria (another nation which has collective war guilt) then this may be a watershed moment for the FPO regardless. Having 50% of people voting for a right wing party that is anti-immigrant may mean thos people find it easier to do so in the general election. UKIP use the European elections as a platform to build on in the UK, they received 4.3m votes in the 2014 EU election, then in 2015 they followed it up with 3.9m votes compared to 0.9m in 2010.
Do the Austrians collectively feel any guilt for WW2? It's not a country I know well, but the presudential vote reflects what I have sensed when I've been there - around half the country feels that Austria has nothing to apologise for and the other 50% does. This is the country of Haider and Waldheim, after all.
Why not go for the big one, Boris and Ken have done it!
I don't know how large that collective is, as I said, it may help the FPO at the GE, just as AfD are helped by the taboo being broken.
My point was that even after Adolf a lot of Austrians have not been shy about supporting ex--Nazis and the far right. In that way it is very different to Germany.
The problem Austria has is that at the end of the war it was treated as a victim not an aggressor.
Possibly because it fits the narrative of appeasement being an unqualified mistake? It wouldn't suit that argument to take a nuanced view of the targets of Hitler's territorial expansion prior to 1939.
The majority have though, FPO have only ever scored 20% in the Austrian GE which was an all time high in 2013, just now 50% of voters just voted for them, a very large proportion will have been first time FPO supporters who may return to vote for them in the GE in 2018, the same cannot be said for the Green candidate who won, where the vast majority of the votes will have been lent.
Even in the low turnout EU elections they scored 20% as the only Eurosceptic party on the ballot paper. I don't think Austria is the nation of right wing fanatics you think it is!
Edit: FPO won 960k votes in 2013, and 2.2m votes just now in the run off. Loads of first time voters who have now, for the first time, voted for a right wing party. It is a massive win for them, even if the final result didn't go their way.
It also shows just how fractured a lot of countries are. 50% of the country are voting for a radical Leftist Green who wants to let more asylum seekers in, while 50% are voting for a radical right wing candidate who wants to clamp down very sharply on immigration.
I think a majority of the 50% who voted for the Green candidate won't be pro-immigration as much as they will be anti-FPO.
I'm sure that's true: but I'm equally sure than Hofer did better against VDB than he might have done against a more moderate candidate.
It's a bit like being offered a choice of the FN or Podemos.
Mr 63. I really can't be arsed with this, however, for the last time.
Whatever your views. local knowledge, amazing betting insights on the Oldham byelection were, the unarguable fact is that on Betfair UKIP were approximately a 7/2 chance. You then asked whether it was possible to name a bigger shock than would have been the case had they won said byelection and suggested it would be impossible or at least difficult to do so.......so far so good?
Its since been established that several larger price selections have indeed obliged, and indeed that in many cases a larger swing than UKIP required has been achieved. Thus had Ukip prevailed it really, really, really wouldn't have been the political equivalent of Leicester winning the league.
This means you were WRONG, INCORRECT, ERRONEOUS in your assumption. Admit it, to yourself at least.
Its revealing that I write one thing and you reply about something completely different.
Ukip have won 2 by elections, both by people who were sitting MPs. At the GE Labour got 23630 votes, Ukip 8892. Anybody who thought that would be overturned a few months later was mad.
Still, keep telling me I was WRONG if it makes you feel better.
Female voters Trump down by 14 vs Clinton Male voters Trump up by 22 vs Clinton
In March this was
Trump down by 21 with women and up 5 with men vs Clinton.
Not only is Trump winning over women, Hillary is losing the male vote in droves. He stupid comments such as "women are the primary victims of war, they lose their husbands" or whatever inanity she came out with just shows how out of touch she is.
Female voters Trump down by 14 vs Clinton Male voters Trump up by 22 vs Clinton
In March this was
Trump down by 21 with women and up 5 with men vs Clinton.
Not only is Trump winning over women, Hillary is losing the male vote in droves. He stupid comments such as "women are the primary victims of war, they lose their husbands" or whatever inanity she came out with just shows how out of touch she is.
And of course there is the question of Bill's relationships with women, and Hillary's role in all that murky business.
I have the feeling ARSE4US will be doing plenty of rowing back to tone up and fight the flabby predictions.
ARSE4US has called the last two US elections with an accuracy that is the admiration of the finest Swiss watchmakers and watching world alike.
I vividly recall the numerous ARSE4US gainsayers on PB confidently predicting a Clinton/McCain race in 08 followed by President McCain and then president Romney in 12.
Hofer: Perhaps people should be asking what has driven 50% of the population to vote for him. You cant dismiss 50% of the population as knuckleaded racists. People only vote for populists when they feel cornered (just as was the case in Germany in 1933.
He wont be the last. I think the problem is that incresingly since the 60's mainstream parties have all adopted a broad approach of increasing technocratism and remoteness and liberal humanism in social policies.
Other views were shut out and marginalised, but slowly the wheels are coming off.
In the UK the most obvious msnifestation is not UKIP but that Labour Psrty Membership collapsed so much that a relatively small number of SJW types were able to join the party and together with existng such members capture it by electing Corbyn.
Corbyn also won the Labour membership by miles. In fact, he won whichever category you wish to take.
Again, going back to my conversation with the CDU fellow I know, he sees Austria as one or two steps ahead of the curve and AfD in the same insurgent position as the FPO. They are worried that in a few cycles AfD will become the largest single party in the Bundestag, and the CDU, SPD, Greens and possibly the FDP will have to band together as a coalition of losers to keep them out.
F1: glancing at Ladbrokes' Monaco markets, I don't think there's anything that's remotely tempting. Safety car is very likely, but not a certainty, and 1.11 is just too short to tempt me.
I had half an eye on Raikkonen, each way, to be fastest in practice 1 (each way makes it top 3) at 26. That market is suspended, however.
Only from the perspective that it's funny to watch the lefties get really angry with this sort of thing. Ultimately, however, this is someone else's country and it is up to them who they vote for. I couldn't tell you what either candidate stands for, only that one has been labelled far right by media outlets who shy away from ever describing politicians as far left.
They're a strongly nationalist, anti migrant, anti immigration, Islamo-sceptic party founded by an ex Nazi minister and SS officer. What kind of right would you describe them as?
I have the feeling ARSE4US will be doing plenty of rowing back to tone up and fight the flabby predictions.
ARSE4US has called the last two US elections with an accuracy that is the admiration of the finest Swiss watchmakers and watching world alike.
I vividly recall the numerous ARSE4US gainsayers on PB confidently predicting a Clinton/McCain race in 08 followed by President McCain and then president Romney in 12.
Oopps.
Just one poll, but what do you make of 38 - 38 in VA ?
The very sharp rural / urban divide is the most striking thing I think.
And starting to become ever more striking in the UK as country towns continue expand rapidly with white people who used to live in cities - many of them have doubled in size in 30 or 40 years yet are still nearly 100% white - go figure.
Hofer: Perhaps people should be asking what has driven 50% of the population to vote for him. You cant dismiss 50% of the population as knuckleaded racists. People only vote for populists when they feel cornered (just as was the case in Germany in 1933.
He wont be the last. I think the problem is that incresingly since the 60's mainstream parties have all adopted a broad approach of increasing technocratism and remoteness and liberal humanism in social policies.
Other views were shut out and marginalised, but slowly the wheels are coming off.
In the UK the most obvious msnifestation is not UKIP but that Labour Psrty Membership collapsed so much that a relatively small number of SJW types were able to join the party and together with existng such members capture it by electing Corbyn.
Corbyn also won the Labour membership by miles. In fact, he won whichever category you wish to take.
only because it had collapsed so much (down to 187,000 at the 2015 election that hardliners were a disproportionate number of those remaining and entryism via new SJWs and the £3ers was quite easy.
Corbyn wouldn't have won if the membership was still over a million or proably even over 500,000 at the last election.
''Do the Austrians collectively feel any guilt for WW2? It's not a country I know well, but the presudential vote reflects what I have sensed when I've been there - around half the country feels that Austria has nothing to apologise for and the other 50% does. This is the country of Haider and Waldheim, after all.''
Wittgenstein and H*tler were class mates in Linz.
I lived in Vienna at the end of the 50s and early 60s - I was a kid so had no strong impressions, but my bilingual mother was convinced that the country was (then) pretty much divided as you say, with rather more than half in the "Why should we apologise?" camp. I'd have thought things had moved on a bit by now, but the underlying attitudes perhaps not.
Mr. Bedfordshire, sounds like there may well be a rural/urban split in the referendum vote. I'd guess most cities will be for Remain, much of the countryside for Leave.
Hofer: Perhaps people should be asking what has driven 50% of the population to vote for him. You cant dismiss 50% of the population as knuckleaded racists. People only vote for populists when they feel cornered (just as was the case in Germany in 1933.
He wont be the last. I think the problem is that incresingly since the 60's mainstream parties have all adopted a broad approach of increasing technocratism and remoteness and liberal humanism in social policies.
Other views were shut out and marginalised, but slowly the wheels are coming off.
In the UK the most obvious msnifestation is not UKIP but that Labour Psrty Membership collapsed so much that a relatively small number of SJW types were able to join the party and together with existng such members capture it by electing Corbyn.
Corbyn also won the Labour membership by miles. In fact, he won whichever category you wish to take.
Damning verdict from Crudas and the inquiry into why labour lost. Full report has now been published. Two highlights:
"A tsunami of aspirant voters sank Labour and the pollsters. Voters abandoned Labour because they believed Labour lacked economic credibility and the perception was that it would be profligate in government. In contrast, they trusted the Tories with their economic security."
"Labour is losing its working-class support and UKIP is reaping the benefits. Since 2005 it has been socially conservative voters who are most likely to have deserted Labour."
@JGForsyth: So, BBC Question Time Brexit special is Cameron & Gove. But the two are appearing on different nights: Gove on Wednesday 15th, Cameron 19th
The highest turnout anyone on PB has predicted is 75% of thereabouts is it not? That means any poll hoping to present an accurate picture surely has to have 25%+ dk/wnv doesn't it? Or is that wrong? At the moment we have a whole load of people who are guaranteed not to vote being put into one box or another. Do any of the pollsters have a proxy question for finding out if someone has been honest about their voting intention?
Just one poll, but what do you make of 38 - 38 in VA ?
Roanoke only have a C- 538 polling record. No demographic crosstabs which is disappointing. As you say just one poll.
GOP voters are as expected getting behind Trump, the same will happen to Clinton. Presently this is all shadow boxing. The real fight begins after the conventions and Labor Day.
However the staring point is that Clinton enjoys an Electoral College advantage with changing demographics helping her in many swing states.
I visited Vienna once. With my then wife who is Japanese. We visited with her friend and her Austrian husband. They were theatrical and had met on the cruise ship world. They lived just outside Vienna. They had land. Grew turnips.
The Vienna mass transit system is really weird. You get onto a commuter train. Then it turns into a tram, then it turns into an underground train. And back again again and so-forth.
My ex's family were building a house in his ancestral land in the Vienna exburbs. They rear excellent pork round there.
While touristing round Vienna - I was greatly impressed by the Hofburg etc, big buildings to manage an empire long gone, reminded me of Whitehall - I was also struck by the blue-rinse old ladies.
I recalled the photos I saw of the Jews in 1938 being forced to clean the streets with toothbrushes with laughing crowds looking on and realised that some of those blue-rince old ladies would have been some of the same people who were laughing at the silly Jews half a century ago (this was the mid 90s).
I am all in favour of insurgent parties giving ruling elites a big kick up the bum. But, the Austrian Freedom Party are basically composed of people who are sorry that the Nazis lost. I think that the Greens have a bit of a fascistic tinge as well. But I draw the line at Lederhosen.
My Austrian/Jap friends decided to leave Austria. Japanese mum was systematically blanked at the school gates by the Aryan mums.
Last I heard of them they had gone to live in Australia.
@pswidlicki: Vote Leave going to be chuffed about Leave.EU giving out their mobile numbers to their supporters to ring and complain about sidelining UKIP
Again, going back to my conversation with the CDU fellow I know, he sees Austria as one or two steps ahead of the curve and AfD in the same insurgent position as the FPO. They are worried that in a few cycles AfD will become the largest single party in the Bundestag, and the CDU, SPD, Greens and possibly the FDP will have to band together as a coalition of losers to keep them out.
While Germany escaped Versailles largely intact (other than the Polish Corridor, Alsace Lorraine (that they only got in 1871) Memel and a few other insignificant border changes; by contrast Austria, which had run a much more longstanding empire of similar size was utterly dismembered and defenestrated.
Austrians were left with a rump country not much bigger than Wales, a post imperial capital full of beautiful redundant buildings and many if not most families having relations from the east now spread over best part of a dozen newly created Central European and Balkan countries who suddenly found themselves ethnic minorities and were having their noses rubbed in it in much the same way as Protestant families did in parts of Eire in the 1920s (this also went on in the Polish corridor/Danzig and for travellers between East Prussia to Germany by the way - the also far right Polish government seemingly relishing poking the hornets nest with a sharp stick thinking the Hornets had been neutered)
Hardly surprising therefore that (a) It was an Austrian rather than German who led a successful reactionary party and (b) that Austrians are still fearful of large scale immigration from non German speakers.
People are not stupid and don't vote for nutters without a good reason just as terrorists don't get popular support unless there is a real and nasty injustice they can leverage popular support with (as in Northern Ireland in the 1950s-60s)
Comments
Wittgenstein and H*tler were class mates in Linz.
I guess they couldn't push the numbers any further without changing broad assumptions about our economy in general - that is, to predict a bigger recession would have meant Osborne admitting what we all know - that our economy is built on sand.
REMAIN teacher expelled from school for indoctrination ....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ie6LpKOJVf0
Phew ....
And this run up - a week before, a month, 6 months?
I'd hazard a guess I'm closer to Ukip than most on here, they were hopeful of a good show in Oldham, Bickley is a top bloke, the chances of wrestling a seat like that from Labour are negligible at best and Ukip knows it.
While the referendum would settle the issue of EU membership once and for all, many aspects of the UK’s international and domestic economic policy framework would be
put in doubt, leading to a significant rise in uncertainty.
(Treasury report 2016)
So sorry - there will be no further referendum. Quite clear.
I don't know how large that collective is, as I said, it may help the FPO at the GE, just as AfD are helped by the taboo being broken.
OllyT said:
Richard_Nabavi said:
Plato_Says said:
Asa Bennett
Great @EdConwaySky
blog asking why the Treasury ignored EEA option for Britain post-Brexit https://t.co/Ojhx7kJI8R
See what you think of it.
What a strange post. The Leave campaigns have all ruled out the EEA option, and indeed much, perhaps most, of their campaign is about immigration. So why on earth would the Treasury analyse an option which isn't being proposed by anyone?
Many people advocating Leave don't even understand what they are proposing. I had to point out to a fan of the sainted Dan Hannan yesterday that he is actually advocating a post-Brexit option (EEA) that Gove and Boris have explicitly ruled out. He was somewhat non-plussed,
-------------------
If Leave does scrape a win it's going to be a hoot sitting back and watches what happens next.
Could be a mass Chicken Licken Convention. Meanwhile, across the channel, I anticipate, merde a frappé le ventilateur"
Instead there was actually a swing to Labour!
Sometimes you just have to know when to stop digging
Chasing the markets, in the long run, is the road to ruin.
Top Gear audience ‘walk out’ of filming after being left ‘unimpressed’ https://t.co/H9MbYvhfcp
Had a quick look back at Betfair:-
"My instinct says Labour hang on with a vastly reduced majority, but they make no betting appeal whatsoever. I wouldn't be in the least bit surprised were UKIP to edge it, and that must make them the value pick at 4.50. Their chance of victory is better than 22%.
Recommended bet
Back UKIP to win the Oldham West & Royton by-election @ 4.50"
Biggest electoral shock ever my a@se!
Can you name a bigger shock than Ukip winning a seat that Labour have held for decades?
No, I thought not.
What price were the Tories to get a mjority at the last election?
When? Prices fluctuate.
6/1 in the run up to the election I believe....
So what's your point?
And this run up - a week before, a month, 6 months?
I'd hazard a guess I'm closer to Ukip than most on here, they were hopeful of a good show in Oldham, Bickley is a top bloke, the chances of wrestling a seat like that from Labour are negligible at best and Ukip knows it.
The point is you asked Olly whether he could name a bigger shock than UKIP winning in Oldham.
As 6/1 (bigger on Betfair) is a longer price than 7/2 it's a bigger shock.
And they were 7/1 on the 29th of April 2015 to answer your other point.
You see I'm not sure of the point you're trying to make, anybody would think it was a major shock that Labour held on to a seat they'd held for decades, it really wasn't.
You sir, are a complete fool.
Right click, translate
Edit: Cut and paste into Google translate
Latest (and final?) is lead of 31,026 votes
No, I thought not.
What price were the Tories to get a mjority at the last election?
When? Prices fluctuate.
6/1 in the run up to the election I believe....
So what's your point?
And this run up - a week before, a month, 6 months?
I'd hazard a guess I'm closer to Ukip than most on here, they were hopeful of a good show in Oldham, Bickley is a top bloke, the chances of wrestling a seat like that from Labour are negligible at best and Ukip knows it.
The point is you asked Olly whether he could name a bigger shock than UKIP winning in Oldham.
As 6/1 (bigger on Betfair) is a longer price than 7/2 it's a bigger shock.
And they were 7/1 on the 29th of April 2015 to answer your other point.
This site is full of people who clearly don't understand betting, I pointed this out last week.
A month before the GE I was 9/4 to become an MP, one afternoon I went out to 16/1.
Now scratch your head and think about that.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_by-election_records#Largest_swings
And re your comment, it wasn't a general election though, was it? By-elections routinely have larger swings than GE's, and are seen by the public as an opportunity to protest. A year earlier, UKIP won two by-elections (becoming only the fourth party since WWII to win two by-elections in the same year). They very nearly won a third in a contest just down the road. OW&R had potential for UKIP with a votership which back in 2001 (admittedly a while before) gave more than 15% to the BNP. And the opportunity was potentially there for UKIP with none of the three main parties setting the world alight with their popularity.
In fact, it was something of a missed opportunity for Team farage.
When? Prices fluctuate.
6/1 in the run up to the election I believe....
So what's your point?
And this run up - a week before, a month, 6 months?
I'd hazard a guess I'm closer to Ukip than most on here, they were hopeful of a good show in Oldham, Bickley is a top bloke, the chances of wrestling a seat like that from Labour are negligible at best and Ukip knows it.
The point is you asked Olly whether he could name a bigger shock than UKIP winning in Oldham.
As 6/1 (bigger on Betfair) is a longer price than 7/2 it's a bigger shock.
And they were 7/1 on the 29th of April 2015 to answer your other point.
This site is full of people who clearly don't understand betting, I pointed this out last week.
A month before the GE I was 9/4 to become an MP, one afternoon I went out to 16/1.
Now scratch your head and think about that.
I'd hazard a guess I know considerably more about betting than you. Just accept you are wrong and making yourself look increasingly foolish.
6/1 in the run up to the election I believe....
So what's your point?
And this run up - a week before, a month, 6 months?
I'd hazard a guess I'm closer to Ukip than most on here, they were hopeful of a good show in Oldham, Bickley is a top bloke, the chances of wrestling a seat like that from Labour are negligible at best and Ukip knows it.
The point is you asked Olly whether he could name a bigger shock than UKIP winning in Oldham.
As 6/1 (bigger on Betfair) is a longer price than 7/2 it's a bigger shock.
And they were 7/1 on the 29th of April 2015 to answer your other point.
This site is full of people who clearly don't understand betting, I pointed this out last week.
A month before the GE I was 9/4 to become an MP, one afternoon I went out to 16/1.
Now scratch your head and think about that.
I'd hazard a guess I know considerably more about betting than you. Just accept you are wrong and making yourself look increasingly foolish.
OK, you know about betting, price this up for me.
For Ukip to win in Oldham they needed a 17% swing according to OllyT, in thousands of previous parliamentary elections it had happened 20 times.
What price would you have laid Ukip at?
@RodCrosby the closest of myself, @Rcs1000 and his own model...
https://t.co/uc5GtpABOU
I wonder why that is..
A missed opportunity eh?
To overturn a 17% swing against a highly regarded local Labour candidate.
Ukip never stood a chance, the results proved it, though I thought they might do better than they did.
Comparing Oldham to Clacton and Rochester is disingenuous, both Carswell and Reckless were the sitting MPs
Which means the SNP should be Stewart Hosie...
OK, you know about betting, price this up for me.
For Ukip to win in Oldham they needed a 17% swing according to OllyT, in thousands of previous parliamentary elections it had happened 20 times.
What price would you have laid Ukip at?
What price I would have laid UKIP at is completely irrelevant. You (quite rudely) suggested that there wouldn't have been a bigger shock than UKIP winning in Oldham.
It's been pointed out that here have been winners bigger in both terms of swing and odds available.
You're right that labour picked a strong local candidate but such things only count so far. Reckless won, after all.
It's been pointed out that here have been winners bigger in both terms of swing and odds available.
Yes, in tens of thousands of elections its happened 20 times.
Still, you understand betting, you'll get my point.
Still, you understand betting, you'll get my point.
I'm absolutely clueless as to what point you're trying to make. I suspect that makes two of us.
Sometimes its best to admit you are wrong. If you can't do that then probably best to stop arguing though.....
Even in the low turnout EU elections they scored 20% as the only Eurosceptic party on the ballot paper. I don't think Austria is the nation of right wing fanatics you think it is!
Edit: FPO won 960k votes in 2013, and 2.2m votes just now in the run off. Loads of first time voters who have now, for the first time, voted for a right wing party. It is a massive win for them, even if the final result didn't go their way.
Sometimes its best to admit you are wrong. If you can't do that then probably best to stop arguing though.....
I'll make myself clear.
I've said all along few people thought Ukip had a serious chance of winning, you may have considered they had an excellent chance and bet accordingly.
I thought they would do better than they did.
You can read and write, have a go at comprehension.
Unfamiliar with the Austrian Parliamentary system, though, so no idea if that would transfer so easily.
Also, there are substantial differences between the two parties (SNP wanting independence, the historical nature of the far right in Austria etc).
More women vote than men.
National debt figures?
Photo of George?
"The Austrians are brilliant people.
They made the world believe that Hitler was a German and Beethoven an Austrian".
@STVNews: Kenny MacAskill: I don't know if I have broken Secrets Act
https://t.co/RdmaFdYh70 https://t.co/Al9c94mQHX
Election special, including EdStone, the bewildered opposition after the exit poll and a bewildered Conservative party after winning
Labour leadership battle, Malcolm is out of prison and is working for the Burnham character and losing
The EU election with Mannion either as a major part of the Leave campaign buggering everything up all the time like Boris or as a reluctant part of the Remain campaign getting his lines wrong all the time (opposite of Boris or the same as Javid).
Whatever your views. local knowledge, amazing betting insights on the Oldham byelection were, the unarguable fact is that on Betfair UKIP were approximately a 7/2 chance.
You then asked whether it was possible to name a bigger shock than would have been the case had they won said byelection and suggested it would be impossible or at least difficult to do so.......so far so good?
Its since been established that several larger price selections have indeed obliged, and indeed that in many cases a larger swing than UKIP required has been achieved. Thus had Ukip prevailed it really, really, really wouldn't have been the political equivalent of Leicester winning the league.
This means you were WRONG, INCORRECT, ERRONEOUS in your assumption. Admit it, to yourself at least.
He wont be the last. I think the problem is that incresingly since the 60's mainstream parties have all adopted a broad approach of increasing technocratism and remoteness and liberal humanism in social policies.
Other views were shut out and marginalised, but slowly the wheels are coming off.
In the UK the most obvious msnifestation is not UKIP but that Labour Psrty Membership collapsed so much that a relatively small number of SJW types were able to join the party and together with existng such members capture it by electing Corbyn.
And then .... drum roll .... we have ARSE4US to inspire PBers in the coming months ....
It's a bit like being offered a choice of the FN or Podemos.
Ukip have won 2 by elections, both by people who were sitting MPs. At the GE Labour got 23630 votes, Ukip 8892. Anybody who thought that would be overturned a few months later was mad.
Still, keep telling me I was WRONG if it makes you feel better.
Female voters Trump down by 14 vs Clinton
Male voters Trump up by 22 vs Clinton
In March this was
Trump down by 21 with women and up 5 with men vs Clinton.
Not only is Trump winning over women, Hillary is losing the male vote in droves. He stupid comments such as "women are the primary victims of war, they lose their husbands" or whatever inanity she came out with just shows how out of touch she is.
I vividly recall the numerous ARSE4US gainsayers on PB confidently predicting a Clinton/McCain race in 08 followed by President McCain and then president Romney in 12.
Oopps.
I had half an eye on Raikkonen, each way, to be fastest in practice 1 (each way makes it top 3) at 26. That market is suspended, however.
Corbyn wouldn't have won if the membership was still over a million or proably even over 500,000 at the last election.
"A tsunami of aspirant voters sank Labour and the pollsters. Voters abandoned Labour because they believed Labour lacked economic credibility and the perception was that it would be profligate in government. In contrast, they trusted the Tories with their economic security."
"Labour is losing its working-class support and UKIP is reaping the benefits. Since 2005 it has been socially conservative voters who are most likely to have deserted Labour."
GOP voters are as expected getting behind Trump, the same will happen to Clinton. Presently this is all shadow boxing. The real fight begins after the conventions and Labor Day.
However the staring point is that Clinton enjoys an Electoral College advantage with changing demographics helping her in many swing states.
The Vienna mass transit system is really weird. You get onto a commuter train. Then it turns into a tram, then it turns into an underground train. And back again again and so-forth.
My ex's family were building a house in his ancestral land in the Vienna exburbs. They rear excellent pork round there.
While touristing round Vienna - I was greatly impressed by the Hofburg etc, big buildings to manage an empire long gone, reminded me of Whitehall - I was also struck by the blue-rinse old ladies.
I recalled the photos I saw of the Jews in 1938 being forced to clean the streets with toothbrushes with laughing crowds looking on and realised that some of those blue-rince old ladies would have been some of the same people who were laughing at the silly Jews half a century ago (this was the mid 90s).
I am all in favour of insurgent parties giving ruling elites a big kick up the bum. But, the Austrian Freedom Party are basically composed of people who are sorry that the Nazis lost. I think that the Greens have a bit of a fascistic tinge as well. But I draw the line at Lederhosen.
My Austrian/Jap friends decided to leave Austria. Japanese mum was systematically blanked at the school gates by the Aryan mums.
Last I heard of them they had gone to live in Australia.
[Edited for typos and format]
Austrians were left with a rump country not much bigger than Wales, a post imperial capital full of beautiful redundant buildings and many if not most families having relations from the east now spread over best part of a dozen newly created Central European and Balkan countries who suddenly found themselves ethnic minorities and were having their noses rubbed in it in much the same way as Protestant families did in parts of Eire in the 1920s (this also went on in the Polish corridor/Danzig and for travellers between East Prussia to Germany by the way - the also far right Polish government seemingly relishing poking the hornets nest with a sharp stick thinking the Hornets had been neutered)
Hardly surprising therefore that (a) It was an Austrian rather than German who led a successful reactionary party and (b) that Austrians are still fearful of large scale immigration from non German speakers.
People are not stupid and don't vote for nutters without a good reason just as terrorists don't get popular support unless there is a real and nasty injustice they can leverage popular support with (as in Northern Ireland in the 1950s-60s)