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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Against the trend of other recent phone polls ComRes for the Mail has the REMAIN lead getting smaller

New @DailyMailUK/@ITVNews #EURef poll:

Read the full story here

TheScreamingEagles

Colour me stunned by this revelation

https://twitter.com/Adam_Ludlow/status/733402121928744960

TheScreamingEagles

https://twitter.com/ComResPolls/status/733403140112842754

Casino_Royale

Interesting. Implies 56%/44% Remain result.

What's also interesting is that controls over laws, here, is of interest to 47% of voters here compared to Ipsos-Mori's 15%.

(although I don't know how they asked the question)

Pulpstar

New ComRes #EURef poll for @DailyMailUK and @itvnews gives #Remain 14-pt lead as the econ surges to become most imp issue ?!

Richard_Tyndall

Casino_Royale said:

Interesting. Implies 56%/44% Remain result.

What's also interesting is that controls over laws, here, is of interest to 47% of voters here compared to Ipsos-Mori's 15%.

(although I don't know how they asked the question)

Also interesting that freedom of movement and uncertainty are both relatively so low.

TheScreamingEagles

Casino_Royale said:

Interesting. Implies 56%/44% Remain result.

What's also interesting is that controls over laws, here, is of interest to 47% of voters here compared to Ipsos-Mori's 15%.

(although I don't know how they asked the question)

Ipsos Mori gave you only option to choose, ComRes allowed voters to choose up to three.

Sean_F

I thought it was 51/40 last time.

I'm puzzled what numbers we're supposed to regard as definitive.

Casino_Royale

MESSAGE TO LEAVE - fightback on the economy hard now or this is all over:

"It is plausible that Brexit could have a modest negative impact on growth and job creation. But it is slightly more plausible that the net impacts will be modestly positive. This is a strong conclusion when compared with some studies"

"We continue to think that the United Kingdom’s economic prospects are good whether inside or outside the European Union. Britain has pulled ahead of the European Union in recent years, and we expect that gap to widen over the next few years regardless of whether Brexit occurs"

https://woodfordfunds.com/economic-impact-brexit-report/

TheScreamingEagles

Pulpstar said:

New ComRes #EURef poll for @DailyMailUK and @itvnews gives #Remain 14-pt lead as the econ surges to become most imp issue ?!

14% is the headline figure, but 11% is the turnout adjusted figure.

As per the previous thread, ComRes think the 11% figure will be the most accurate.

Richard_Tyndall

So the economy has leapt ahead as the most important issue but at the same time the polls have shown a 4 point move in favour of Leave?

I can't pretend to understand that.

Sunil_Prasannan

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

New ComRes #EURef poll for @DailyMailUK and @itvnews gives #Remain 14-pt lead as the econ surges to become most imp issue ?!

14% is the headline figure, but 11% is the turnout adjusted figure.

As per the previous thread, ComRes think the 11% figure will be the most accurate.

Broken, sleazy REMAIN on the slide?

Scott_P

IT'S NOT THE ECONOMY. STUPID.

@chrisshipitv: NEW: @ComResPolls for @itvnews finds economy now most import issue in #euref. 38% in Feb. Now 55% say it's 1 of 3 most important factors

Oh, wait...

Casino_Royale

So it's an 8%-16% Remain lead with the phone polls.

Tied, or small Leave lead, of 1-2% with the online polls.

Split the difference 60% in the phone polls favour? :-)

TheScreamingEagles

Richard_Tyndall said:

So the economy has leapt ahead as the most important issue but at the same time the polls have shown a 4 point move in favour of Leave?

I can't pretend to understand that.

The economy finding is of all the voters.

The fall in the lead is based on those voters ComRes think are most likely to vote on June 23rd

Richard_Tyndall

TheScreamingEagles said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

So the economy has leapt ahead as the most important issue but at the same time the polls have shown a 4 point move in favour of Leave?

I can't pretend to understand that.

The economy finding is of all the voters.

The fall in the lead is based on those voters ComRes think are most likely to vote on June 23rd

What was the headline figure then. All the pictures on here show the turnout weighted version.

TheScreamingEagles

Casino_Royale said:

So it's an 8%-16% Remain lead with the phone polls.

Tied, or small Leave lead, of 1-2% with the online polls.

Split the difference 60% in the phone polls favour? :-)

The Crosby-Textor polls the Tories used at the last general election were hybrid polls, and were made up of 60% phone and 40% online.

You are Sir Lynton Crosby and I claim my five pounds.

Casino_Royale

The issue with the phone pollsters still seems to be pushing the don't knows clearly and firmly into the Remain column (does anyone really believe don't knows are only at 5-7%?) - and the question is will they all turn out and vote that way - whilst online pollsters seem to oversample Leavers.

The truth is somewhere in between. I just don't know where.

Wanderer

@britainelects is tweeting this as +1/+1?

edit: and @NCPoliticsEU likewise

Casino_Royale

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

So it's an 8%-16% Remain lead with the phone polls.

Tied, or small Leave lead, of 1-2% with the online polls.

Split the difference 60% in the phone polls favour? :-)

The Crosby-Textor polls the Tories used at the last general election were hybrid polls, and were made up of 60% phone and 40% online.

You are Sir Lynton Crosby and I claim my five pounds.

Wow. Biggest compliment you've paid me all year.

I think.

TheScreamingEagles

Richard_Tyndall said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

So the economy has leapt ahead as the most important issue but at the same time the polls have shown a 4 point move in favour of Leave?

I can't pretend to understand that.

The economy finding is of all the voters.

The fall in the lead is based on those voters ComRes think are most likely to vote on June 23rd

What was the headline figure then. All the pictures on here show the turnout weighted version.

Overall, the Remain campaign retains its lead over Leave. After modelling for turnout, 52% say they would vote for Remain, compared to 41% who say they would vote Leave (slightly up from last month), with 7% saying they don’t know. In a vote, this would see Remain defeat Leave 57% to 43%.

http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/itv-news-daily-mail-eu-referendum-poll-may-2016/

Sunil_Prasannan

Casino_Royale said:

MESSAGE TO LEAVE - fightback on the economy hard now or this is all over:

"It is plausible that Brexit could have a modest negative impact on growth and job creation. But it is slightly more plausible that the net impacts will be modestly positive. This is a strong conclusion when compared with some studies"

"We continue to think that the United Kingdom’s economic prospects are good whether inside or outside the European Union. Britain has pulled ahead of the European Union in recent years, and we expect that gap to widen over the next few years regardless of whether Brexit occurs"

https://woodfordfunds.com/economic-impact-brexit-report/

https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/731240757227573248

FrancisUrquhart

TheScreamingEagles said:

Colour me stunned by this revelation

rel="TheScreamingEagles">https://twitter.com/ComResPolls/status/733403140112842754

15% of the public confirmed morons.... ;-)

Sandpit

Casino_Royale said:

The issue with the phone pollsters still seems to be pushing the don't knows clearly and firmly into the Remain column (does anyone really believe don't knows are only at 5-7%?) - and the question is will they all turn out and vote that way - whilst online pollsters seem to oversample Leavers.

The truth is somewhere in between. I just don't know where.

Agreed. There's more questions than answers from the polls, with big differences in manhood logs and various adjustments. Someone's going to have egg on their face five weeks from now.

Casino_Royale

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

So it's an 8%-16% Remain lead with the phone polls.

Tied, or small Leave lead, of 1-2% with the online polls.

Split the difference 60% in the phone polls favour? :-)

The Crosby-Textor polls the Tories used at the last general election were hybrid polls, and were made up of 60% phone and 40% online.

You are Sir Lynton Crosby and I claim my five pounds.

Using that Crosby method (turnout filtered) I'd get something like 53%/47% to Remain.

Casino_Royale

Sandpit said:

Casino_Royale said:

The issue with the phone pollsters still seems to be pushing the don't knows clearly and firmly into the Remain column (does anyone really believe don't knows are only at 5-7%?) - and the question is will they all turn out and vote that way - whilst online pollsters seem to oversample Leavers.

The truth is somewhere in between. I just don't know where.

Agreed. There's more questions than answers from the polls, with big differences in manhood logs and various adjustments. Someone's going to have egg on their face five weeks from now.

Manhood logs?

This isn't PaddyPower!

Sunil_Prasannan

Sandpit said:

Casino_Royale said:

The issue with the phone pollsters still seems to be pushing the don't knows clearly and firmly into the Remain column (does anyone really believe don't knows are only at 5-7%?) - and the question is will they all turn out and vote that way - whilst online pollsters seem to oversample Leavers.

The truth is somewhere in between. I just don't know where.

Agreed. There's more questions than answers from the polls, with big differences in manhood logs and various adjustments. Someone's going to have egg on their face five weeks from now.

Shades of GE2015!

Wanderer

Sandpit said:

Casino_Royale said:

The issue with the phone pollsters still seems to be pushing the don't knows clearly and firmly into the Remain column (does anyone really believe don't knows are only at 5-7%?) - and the question is will they all turn out and vote that way - whilst online pollsters seem to oversample Leavers.

The truth is somewhere in between. I just don't know where.

Agreed. There's more questions than answers from the polls, with big differences in manhood logs and various adjustments. Someone's going to have egg on their face five weeks from now.

manhood logs?!

FrancisUrquhart

Paddy Power must have the Press Release drafted by now for an early payout...

Jonathan

52-41 < sarcasm> All to play for. </ sarcasm >

TheScreamingEagles

Matt confirms his genius once more

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/733407061665558530

Casino_Royale

The most annoying thing about this poll finding is it means a lot more of the same Project Fear crap over the next 5 weeks.

We get the quality of political campaign we deserve.

Right, signing off for the night. Enjoy.

TheScreamingEagles

https://twitter.com/Adam_Ludlow/status/733406900549648385

Wanderer

TheScreamingEagles said:

Matt confirms his genius once more

ttps://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/733407061665558530

So who is it this time? Same as before?

TheScreamingEagles

Good front page for Leave

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/733407476310265856

FrancisUrquhart

Wanderer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Matt confirms his genius once more

ttps://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/733407061665558530

So who is it this time? Same as before?

The Olive Oil case was back before the courts today and we still aren't allowed to know that it is [censored] . The question really is why both the defendant is willing to spend so much money on this and also why the papers are making such a stand. The story really isn't that interesting.

Wanderer

TheScreamingEagles said:

Good front page for Leave

ttps://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/733407476310265856

Thanks. politicalbetting.com is the best for celeb gossip.

dr_spyn

TheScreamingEagles said:

Good front page for Leave

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/733407476310265856

Extracting uric acid.

Plato_Says

https://twitter.com/PlatoSays/status/733407499236204545

FrancisUrquhart

dr_spyn said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Good front page for Leave

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/733407476310265856

Extracting uric acid.

Speechless about that front page.

Plato_Says

Umm

https://twitter.com/PlatoSays/status/733408915837222913

FrancisUrquhart

Plato_Says said:

Umm

https://twitter.com/PlatoSays/status/733408915837222913

One chick is saying to the other, who are these two twats...

TheScreamingEagles

Per this ComRes poll

Top issue in #EURef for 2015 Tory voters is control over UK laws, for 2015 Lab voters is economy, and for 2015 Kippers is immigration

MikeL

Has ComRes done voting intention?

Pulpstar

dr_spyn said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Good front page for Leave

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/733407476310265856

Extracting uric acid.

Oh look, it's Elton on the front page !

FrancisUrquhart

Maybe terrorists attacks have become so common place, but I notice that quite a few newspapers either don't have the plane attack or it is only a portion of the front page.

Not a criticism, more an observation.

Sunil_Prasannan

TheScreamingEagles said:

Per this ComRes poll

Top issue in #EURef for 2015 Tory voters is control over UK laws, for 2015 Lab voters is economy, and for 2015 Kippers is immigration

And for 2015 Lawyers who like wearing red shoes? ;

dr_spyn

Any sign of Mirror or Sun front pages yet?

Telegraph had something about judges making a new privacy law.

OllyT

Casino_Royale said:

So it's an 8%-16% Remain lead with the phone polls.

Tied, or small Leave lead, of 1-2% with the online polls.

Split the difference 60% in the phone polls favour? :-)

The most recent online poll (Yougov) had a 4% lead for Remain

FrancisUrquhart

dr_spyn said:

Any sign of Mirror or Sun front pages yet?

Telegraph had something about judges making a new privacy law.

Mirror is terror attack.

Sandpit

Casino_Royale said:

Sandpit said:

Casino_Royale said:

The issue with the phone pollsters still seems to be pushing the don't knows clearly and firmly into the Remain column (does anyone really believe don't knows are only at 5-7%?) - and the question is will they all turn out and vote that way - whilst online pollsters seem to oversample Leavers.

The truth is somewhere in between. I just don't know where.

Agreed. There's more questions than answers from the polls, with big differences in manhood logs and various adjustments. Someone's going to have egg on their face five weeks from now.

Manhood logs?

This isn't PaddyPower!

Whoops, that's an epic autocorrect fcukup.

Methodologies.

TheScreamingEagles

FrancisUrquhart said:

Maybe terrorists attacks have become so common place, but I notice that quite a few newspapers either don't have the plane attack or it is only a portion of the front page.

Not a criticism, more an observation.

It was on the News earlier on, they were speculating the papers were waiting for the official story.

None of them want to do a Today after the Oklahoma City bombing and do a 'In The Name Of Allah' front page

TheScreamingEagles

MikeL said:

Has ComRes done voting intention?

As per last month, looks like they've not done a full suite VI, so no proper VI polling.

RobD

Sandpit said:

Casino_Royale said:

Sandpit said:

Casino_Royale said:

The issue with the phone pollsters still seems to be pushing the don't knows clearly and firmly into the Remain column (does anyone really believe don't knows are only at 5-7%?) - and the question is will they all turn out and vote that way - whilst online pollsters seem to oversample Leavers.

The truth is somewhere in between. I just don't know where.

Agreed. There's more questions than answers from the polls, with big differences in manhood logs and various adjustments. Someone's going to have egg on their face five weeks from now.

Manhood logs?

This isn't PaddyPower!

Whoops, that's an epic autocorrect fcukup.

Methodologies.

LOL.

MP_SE

Pulpstar said:

dr_spyn said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Good front page for Leave

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/733407476310265856

Extracting uric acid.

Oh look, it's Elton on the front page !

The perfect family.

FrancisUrquhart

QT idea of a balanced panel of 4 Remain (of which 3 lefties) ganging up on UKIP guy.

HYUFD

So if the DK's go to Leave we get to 52% Remain 48% Leave, my predicted margin. Plenty still to play for and crucially Comres is a phone poll

Sunil_Prasannan

OllyT said:

Casino_Royale said:

So it's an 8%-16% Remain lead with the phone polls.

Tied, or small Leave lead, of 1-2% with the online polls.

Split the difference 60% in the phone polls favour? :-)

The most recent online poll (Yougov) had a 4% lead for Remain

https://twitter.com/DanHannanMEP/status/719844936040980481

dr_spyn

Sun splashes story about paddling in olive oil.

FrancisUrquhart

MP_SE said:

Pulpstar said:

dr_spyn said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Good front page for Leave

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/733407476310265856

Extracting uric acid.

Oh look, it's Elton on the front page !

The perfect family.

David has such lovely skin, I wonder how he manages to maintain that?

FrancisUrquhart

dr_spyn said:

Sun splashes story about paddling in olive oil.

Out of interest, what would happen in the Sun printed the name?

Richard_Tyndall

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Good front page for Leave

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/733407476310265856

I think the Daily Mail is taking the piss with that top headline!

I think that is the understatement of the year.

MP_SE

The idiots at Vote Leave could have opted for EFTA and EEA but no, they decided on no exit plan whatsoever. First there was the Canada model, then the Albanian model, then the some other model. Vote Leave were incapable of answering the question on single market access and now have paid the price.

Wanderer

MP_SE said:

The idiots at Vote Leave could have opted for EFTA and EEA but no, they decided on no exit plan whatsoever. First there was the Canada model, then the Albanian model, then the some other model. Vote Leave were incapable of answering the question on single market access and now have paid the price.

You haven't lost yet

Sunil_Prasannan

MP_SE said:

The idiots at Vote Leave could have opted for EFTA and EEA but no, they decided on no exit plan whatsoever. First there was the Canada model, then the Albanian model, then the some other model. Vote Leave were incapable of answering the question on single market access and now have paid the price.

https://twitter.com/WhiteWednesday/status/732614940889059328

Richard_Tyndall

MP_SE said:

The idiots at Vote Leave could have opted for EFTA and EEA but no, they decided on no exit plan whatsoever. First there was the Canada model, then the Albanian model, then the some other model. Vote Leave were incapable of answering the question on single market access and now have paid the price.

Yep.

TheScreamingEagles

FrancisUrquhart said:

dr_spyn said:

Sun splashes story about paddling in olive oil.

Out of interest, what would happen in the Sun printed the name?

Contempt of court.

FrancisUrquhart

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

dr_spyn said:

Sun splashes story about paddling in olive oil.

Out of interest, what would happen in the Sun printed the name?

FrancisUrquhart said:

dr_spyn said:

Sun splashes story about paddling in olive oil.

Out of interest, what would happen in the Sun printed the name?

Contempt of court.

And....worst that could happen?

Wanderer

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

dr_spyn said:

Sun splashes story about paddling in olive oil.

Out of interest, what would happen in the Sun printed the name?

FrancisUrquhart said:

dr_spyn said:

Sun splashes story about paddling in olive oil.

Out of interest, what would happen in the Sun printed the name?

Contempt of court.

And....worst that could happen?

Tyburn?

Scott_P

MP_SE said:

The idiots at Vote Leave could have opted for EFTA and EEA but no, they decided on no exit plan whatsoever. First there was the Canada model, then the Albanian model, then the some other model. Vote Leave were incapable of answering the question on single market access and now have paid the price.

*cough*IndyRef*cough*

So Alex, what currency will you use?

Ummm...

DavidL

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Colour me stunned by this revelation

rel="TheScreamingEagles">https://twitter.com/ComResPolls/status/733403140112842754

15% of the public confirmed morons.... ;-)

Nah, there are far more than 15% who are morons. Its just that even your average moron wouldn't believe that war nonsense from Cameron.

Richard_Tyndall

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

dr_spyn said:

Sun splashes story about paddling in olive oil.

Out of interest, what would happen in the Sun printed the name?

FrancisUrquhart said:

dr_spyn said:

Sun splashes story about paddling in olive oil.

Out of interest, what would happen in the Sun printed the name?

Contempt of court.

And....worst that could happen?

People do jail time.

Sunil_Prasannan

FrancisUrquhart said:

dr_spyn said:

Contempt of court.

And....worst that could happen?

Court martial, followed by immediate suspension of chocolate rations?

HYUFD

Richard_Tyndall said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Good front page for Leave

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/733407476310265856

I think the Daily Mail is taking the piss with that top headline!

I think that is the understatement of the year.

Yes too true but better leave it there

dr_spyn

Was that injunction applicable to England and Wales, and not Scotland, Northern Ireland?

TheScreamingEagles

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

dr_spyn said:

Sun splashes story about paddling in olive oil.

Out of interest, what would happen in the Sun printed the name?

FrancisUrquhart said:

dr_spyn said:

Sun splashes story about paddling in olive oil.

Out of interest, what would happen in the Sun printed the name?

Contempt of court.

And....worst that could happen?

Unlimited fine and or Prison, IIRC depending on malice/wilfulness of it, can be a life sentence

FrancisUrquhart

Richard_Tyndall said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

dr_spyn said:

Sun splashes story about paddling in olive oil.

Out of interest, what would happen in the Sun printed the name?

FrancisUrquhart said:

dr_spyn said:

Sun splashes story about paddling in olive oil.

Out of interest, what would happen in the Sun printed the name?

Contempt of court.

And....worst that could happen?

People do jail time.

Seriously though...I wonder how severe the punishment would be? Would they really send the Sun editor to jail for a week? Longer? Serious question, what could they realistically expect to get for it.

RobD

dr_spyn said:

Was that injunction applicable to England and Wales, and not Scotland, Northern Ireland?

Hypothetically speaking, England and Wales only.

FrancisUrquhart

dr_spyn said:

Was that injunction applicable to England and Wales, and not Scotland, Northern Ireland?

They have already printed it in Scotland.

FrancisUrquhart

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

dr_spyn said:

Sun splashes story about paddling in olive oil.

Out of interest, what would happen in the Sun printed the name?

FrancisUrquhart said:

dr_spyn said:

Sun splashes story about paddling in olive oil.

Out of interest, what would happen in the Sun printed the name?

Contempt of court.

And....worst that could happen?

Unlimited fine and or Prison, IIRC depending on malice/wilfulness of it, can be a life sentence

Realistically though? You think they would bang up the Sun editor for any substantial time?

Sandpit

FrancisUrquhart said:

dr_spyn said:

Sun splashes story about paddling in olive oil.

Out of interest, what would happen in the Sun printed the name?

The editor will be eating porridge for a few months, it would be a blatant contempt of court and judges don't take kindly to that.

HYUFD

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

dr_spyn said:

Sun splashes story about paddling in olive oil.

Out of interest, what would happen in the Sun printed the name?

Contempt of court.

Murdoch could easily afford any costs, I suppose it depends if there is a threat of jail. MPs are of course protected which was how Hemming was able to name Giggs

FrancisUrquhart

Sandpit said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

dr_spyn said:

Sun splashes story about paddling in olive oil.

Out of interest, what would happen in the Sun printed the name?

The editor will be eating porridge for a few months, it would be a blatant contempt of court and judges don't take kindly to that.

On the positive, under Gove's new scheme they could still go to work all week...just no footy or rugger on Saturday / Sunday.

DavidL

TheScreamingEagles said:

Good front page for Leave

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/733407476310265856

No, no, they are perfectly happy together. No problems at all.

RobD

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

dr_spyn said:

Sun splashes story about paddling in olive oil.

Out of interest, what would happen in the Sun printed the name?

FrancisUrquhart said:

dr_spyn said:

Sun splashes story about paddling in olive oil.

Out of interest, what would happen in the Sun printed the name?

Contempt of court.

And....worst that could happen?

Unlimited fine and or Prison, IIRC depending on malice/wilfulness of it, can be a life sentence

Realistically though? You think they would bang up the Sun editor for any substantial time?

Especially given (hypothetically speaking) the identities are well known, hypothetically. (or should I say allegedly).

Wanderer

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

dr_spyn said:

Sun splashes story about paddling in olive oil.

Out of interest, what would happen in the Sun printed the name?

FrancisUrquhart said:

dr_spyn said:

Sun splashes story about paddling in olive oil.

Out of interest, what would happen in the Sun printed the name?

Contempt of court.

And....worst that could happen?

Unlimited fine and or Prison, IIRC depending on malice/wilfulness of it, can be a life sentence

Realistically though? You think they would bang up the Sun editor for any substantial time?

They'd have to or abandon the whole idea of injunctions to prevent publication?

another_richard

Re The Pat Glass abuse of marginal constituencies.

For added amusement it should be pointed out that the area she chose to abuse is adjacent to another constituency of similar demographics formerly represented by a certain prominent Labour PBer.

Richard_Tyndall

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

dr_spyn said:

Sun splashes story about paddling in olive oil.

Out of interest, what would happen in the Sun printed the name?

FrancisUrquhart said:

dr_spyn said:

Sun splashes story about paddling in olive oil.

Out of interest, what would happen in the Sun printed the name?

Contempt of court.

And....worst that could happen?

Unlimited fine and or Prison, IIRC depending on malice/wilfulness of it, can be a life sentence

I think for breaching reporting restrictions the maximum is 2 years.

RodCrosby

Plato_Says said:

Umm

https://twitter.com/PlatoSays/status/733408915837222913

Jezza & Co to do the Birdie Song as our next Eurovision entry...

TheScreamingEagles

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

dr_spyn said:

Sun splashes story about paddling in olive oil.

Out of interest, what would happen in the Sun printed the name?

FrancisUrquhart said:

dr_spyn said:

Sun splashes story about paddling in olive oil.

Out of interest, what would happen in the Sun printed the name?

Contempt of court.

And....worst that could happen?

Unlimited fine and or Prison, IIRC depending on malice/wilfulness of it, can be a life sentence

Realistically though? You think they would bang up the Sun editor for any substantial time?

That's a possibility in a criminal case.

I suspect in this case, the judges have made their rulings, and would want to make an example of someone high profile violating the ruling.

TheScreamingEagles

Richard_Tyndall said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

dr_spyn said:

Sun splashes story about paddling in olive oil.

Out of interest, what would happen in the Sun printed the name?

FrancisUrquhart said:

dr_spyn said:

Sun splashes story about paddling in olive oil.

Out of interest, what would happen in the Sun printed the name?

Contempt of court.

And....worst that could happen?

Unlimited fine and or Prison, IIRC depending on malice/wilfulness of it, can be a life sentence

I think for breaching reporting restrictions the maximum is 2 years.

Yeah, I just checked, there's a distinction between criminal and civil cases.

Sandpit

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Maybe terrorists attacks have become so common place, but I notice that quite a few newspapers either don't have the plane attack or it is only a portion of the front page.

Not a criticism, more an observation.

It was on the News earlier on, they were speculating the papers were waiting for the official story.

None of them want to do a Today after the Oklahoma City bombing and do a 'In The Name Of Allah' front page

Looks like they've not found anything from the plane, although there were reports of wreckage and bodies pulled from the sea earlier. Unfortunately lots of debris from migrant boats in the Med north of Egypt.

HereComesIbi

MP_SE said:

The idiots at Vote Leave could have opted for EFTA and EEA but no, they decided on no exit plan whatsoever. First there was the Canada model, then the Albanian model, then the some other model. Vote Leave were incapable of answering the question on single market access and now have paid the price.

I don't think that's right. The strongest reason for Leave supporters is migration, and that would be taken off the table with the EFTA model. The Vote Leave model has always been a free trade agreement along the Canadian model, but more tailored to the UK. The Albania stuff was just Remain making nonsense.

Richard_Nabavi

So, not much change, with Remain on 57% after eliminating Don't Knows. I think the Ipsos MORI change was probably largely noise (their voting intention polls are often quite volatile).

The overall position seems to be that Remain are on track to get between 55% and 60%. I'd expect a late shift to nurse for fear of something worse, so I stand by my 8/1 (IIRC) tip on 60% to 65% of a couple of weeks ago. But the 55% to 60% band is still the most likely winner IMO.

foxinsoxuk

Plato_Says said:

Umm

https://twitter.com/PlatoSays/status/733408915837222913

Lizards like chicks.

FrancisUrquhart

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

dr_spyn said:

Sun splashes story about paddling in olive oil.

Out of interest, what would happen in the Sun printed the name?

FrancisUrquhart said:

dr_spyn said:

Sun splashes story about paddling in olive oil.

Out of interest, what would happen in the Sun printed the name?

Contempt of court.

And....worst that could happen?

Unlimited fine and or Prison, IIRC depending on malice/wilfulness of it, can be a life sentence

Realistically though? You think they would bang up the Sun editor for any substantial time?

That's a possibility in a criminal case.

I suspect in this case, the judges have made their rulings, and would want to make an example of someone high profile violating the ruling.

I can see judges wanting to make an example, although can you imagine the uproar if the banged up the editor of a national newspaper for telling the truth about a story that is completely here nor there and everybody who wants to know, knows.

It would be some right out dust up. I can imagine the old unions of journos would actually stick together on this one, even those who don't like Murdoch, Currant Bun or the Daily Mail.

RobD

Richard_Nabavi said:

So, not much change, with Remain on 57% after eliminating Don't Knows. I think the Ipsos MORI change was probably largely noise (their voting intention polls are often quite volatile).

The overall position seems to be that Remain are on track to get between 55% and 60%. I'd expect a late shift to nurse for fear of something worse, so I stand by my 8/1 (IIRC) tip on 60% to 65% of a couple of weeks ago. But the 55% to 60% band is still the most likely winner IMO.

65% would be a crushing victory for Remain. You think it could get that high?

HYUFD

Richard_Nabavi said:

So, not much change, with Remain on 57% after eliminating Don't Knows. I think the Ipsos MORI change was probably largely noise (their voting intention polls are often quite volatile).

The overall position seems to be that Remain are on track to get between 55% and 60%. I'd expect a late shift to nurse for fear of something worse, so I stand by my 8/1 (IIRC) tip on 60% to 65% of a couple of weeks ago. But the 55% to 60% band is still the most likely winner IMO.

Remain need to get to 60% to settle it, as Scotland showed on any result from 50% to 59% Remain will simply see the Leavers cry 'We Woz robbed' and push for another go, led by UKIP

Tykejohnno

DavidL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Good front page for Leave

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/733407476310265856

No, no, they are perfectly happy together. No problems at all.

looks like England heading for the concrete capital of Europe,how sad.

Wanderer

RobD said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

So, not much change, with Remain on 57% after eliminating Don't Knows. I think the Ipsos MORI change was probably largely noise (their voting intention polls are often quite volatile).

The overall position seems to be that Remain are on track to get between 55% and 60%. I'd expect a late shift to nurse for fear of something worse, so I stand by my 8/1 (IIRC) tip on 60% to 65% of a couple of weeks ago. But the 55% to 60% band is still the most likely winner IMO.

65% would be a crushing victory for Remain. You think it could get that high?

It only (only?) has to be 60.1 for that band to win.

RobD

HYUFD said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

So, not much change, with Remain on 57% after eliminating Don't Knows. I think the Ipsos MORI change was probably largely noise (their voting intention polls are often quite volatile).

The overall position seems to be that Remain are on track to get between 55% and 60%. I'd expect a late shift to nurse for fear of something worse, so I stand by my 8/1 (IIRC) tip on 60% to 65% of a couple of weeks ago. But the 55% to 60% band is still the most likely winner IMO.

Remain need to get to 60% to settle it, any result from 50% to 59% Remain will simply see the Leavers cry 'We Woz robbed' and push for another go, led by UKIP

I always think it's unfair, given 50%+1 vote would be it for the other side.