Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Against the trend of other recent phone polls ComRes for th

13»

Comments

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,628
    RobD said:

    Wanderer said:

    RobD said:

    Wanderer said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Roger said:

    twitter.com/IainDale/status/733423994498519040

    What a total knob.
    Not exactly what he said. He said even though he wanted out he wouldn't vote Brexit because those leading it were nutters and he'd prefer to stay with an undemocratic Europe that have Boris Johnson or Michael Gove or Nigel Farage incharge of this country. He's not alone in that as you could judge by the applause
    Does he think that Johnson/Gove/Farage will be installed as dictators after we vote Leave or something? Utterly ridiculous. I suppose he'd prefer us to be ruled directly from Brussels rather than have a democratically elected Tory government.
    Johnson and Gove might be PM in a few months time in the event of Brexit.
    Yes, but they aren't going to be PM forever. I still can't fathom this undemocratic streak which is apparent in some of the arguments surrounding the EU from the left
    People are assuming there won't be a general election and that the Cameron-Conservatives who won the election will morph into, say, the Gove-Conservatives who never stood for election. I have nothing against Gove personally but he's a bogeyman for a lot of people. For them, three or four years of such a government (before they have a chance to kick it out) is a nightmare.
    Same thing happened with Brown, and we didn't have the Right saying they'd prefer direct rule from Brussels. Maybe there should be an election after a new PM is appointed, but it's a current quirk of our system. To not vote leave because you dislike the prospect of three years of rule by a PM is stupid, especially given that these are quite rare events!
    Sure, it's the way our system works. But if a section of the public feels that *anything* would be better than a government led by certain Conservative politicians then that's their view. It's not stupid. It's a testament to how unattractive they find those politicians.

    Not sure where "direct rule from Brussels" comes into this. Is that on the ballot paper?
    Not on the ballot paper, but I'm sure they would prefer it rather than accept the small chance of someone they don't agree with being elected democratically!
    Let's hope that one of the Labour Remainers comes up with this argument in one of the debates. EU=good because evil Tories.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Trump interview with Hannity yesterday...
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P4J4n-6Ol1w
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,937
    RodCrosby said:

    Trump interview with Hannity yesterday...

    I suppose the one card she has up her sleeve is filing for divorce.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    HYUFD said:

    Tim_B said:

    Saw a Fox news Poll mentioned today. Polled May 14-17, 1021 registered voters. MOE +/- 3%

    Trump beats Clinton 45% 42%

    Favorable / Unfavorable -

    Clinton - 37% 61%

    Trump - 41% 56%

    Clinton wins among women by 14%, Trump wins among men by 22%. Trump leads Clinton among white women - no percentage given. Independents broke for Trump by 16%.

    A Rasmussen poll was mentioned as also showing Trump leading, but I didn't see details.

    This may all start to shake out a bit when Sanders withdraws.

    The same poll had Sanders leading Trump 46 42. RCP still has HRC ahead by 3.3%
    Well compared to how much Trump was behind Hillary - and how nasty this campaign will get, I think the odds on HRC becoming POTUS are ludicrously short.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    edited May 2016
    Claims Ginola isn't ok after all and is in a coma. Tweet was from his agent, not Ginola himself.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3599393/Reports-David-Ginola-rushed-hospital-feared-cardiac-arrest.html
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    weejonnie said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tim_B said:

    Saw a Fox news Poll mentioned today. Polled May 14-17, 1021 registered voters. MOE +/- 3%

    Trump beats Clinton 45% 42%

    Favorable / Unfavorable -

    Clinton - 37% 61%

    Trump - 41% 56%

    Clinton wins among women by 14%, Trump wins among men by 22%. Trump leads Clinton among white women - no percentage given. Independents broke for Trump by 16%.

    A Rasmussen poll was mentioned as also showing Trump leading, but I didn't see details.

    This may all start to shake out a bit when Sanders withdraws.

    The same poll had Sanders leading Trump 46 42. RCP still has HRC ahead by 3.3%
    Well compared to how much Trump was behind Hillary - and how nasty this campaign will get, I think the odds on HRC becoming POTUS are ludicrously short.
    Clinton is the professional politician's professional politician.

    And Trump has already thrown that playbook in the trashcan for 2016...
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Hannity and Trump on the Saudi connection to 9/11...
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited May 2016
    Clinton's lead trend over time...

    7 days 2.5%
    14 days 3.5%
    30 days 5.0%
    60 days 7.0%

    https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/13331381/trend.PNG
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited May 2016
    viz... last 60 days
    image
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    Scores of UK stars back remaining in EU

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36338220

    This might make me more likely to vote Leave...as luuvies are nearly always wrong about everything political.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    RodCrosby said:

    Hannity and Trump on the Saudi connection to 9/11...

    I can imagine Trump saying "when I'm President, I'll tell you who was behind 9/11. I'll tell you who killed JFK."

    Cue: Landslide...

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,253
    Meanwhile, with all the misery in the world, the Mail have a nice uplifting story about a perfect marriage:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-3599999/Portrait-perfect-marriage-11-years-Elton-proposed-David.html
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554

    Meanwhile, with all the misery in the world, the Mail have a nice uplifting story about a perfect marriage:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-3599999/Portrait-perfect-marriage-11-years-Elton-proposed-David.html

    A real scoop for the Mail that story...
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited May 2016
    Couple of straws in the wind on Trump's Veep pick...

    At tonight's rally and in the Hannity interview, Trump bemoaned the US Airforce having to fly some ancient planes, serviced from scrapyards. An odd comment to throw in from nowhere at this time...

    It is reported that Trump has selected John McCain (Arizona)'s lawyer to vet his Veep pick. The same lawyer who vetted Palin in 2008.

    The lawyer, A.B. Culvahouse, was quoted in 2012 as saying: "Nevertheless, I advised Sen. McCain that because her duties had never encompassed foreign policy or defense issues Gov. Palin would not be ready to be vice president on Jan. 20, 2009 -- but that I believed she had the presence and wherewithal to grow into the position,"

    Three months ago on here I identified a possible pick for Trump.

    Congresswoman Martha McSally of Arizona, ex USAF colonel, the first woman to fly combat missions over enemy territory (Iraq).
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martha_McSally

    She has already won a stay of execution for her old aircraft - the ancient A-10 Warthog - and is fighting the Pentagon to keep it flying until a proven successor has been identified.
    http://www.defensenews.com/story/defense/air-space/air-force/2016/05/02/a-10-air-force-f-35-replacement-mcsally-congress/83824780/

    Hmm?
  • JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790

    Meanwhile, with all the misery in the world, the Mail have a nice uplifting story about a perfect marriage:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-3599999/Portrait-perfect-marriage-11-years-Elton-proposed-David.html

    OMG How mindbogglingly hypocritical
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    Too many blissfully married Canadian immigrants in the country?
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Trump in to 3.7 on BF

    McSally (Rep VP) last matched at 50...
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited May 2016
    Another interesting dot...

    Trump also alluded tonight to the Clintons' treatment of women, and the fact that Bill was forced to settle out of court for $800,000 with one.

    He must be referring to the case of Paula Jones, who did in fact get a payment of $850,000 in 1998 from President Bill Clinton.

    The lawyers representing Jones were from the libertarian Rutherford Institute in Virginia.

    Trump also said quite few disparaging things about the Saudis.

    Colonel McSally USAF won a landmark case in 2002 against the Department of Defense, forcing them to lift their ordnance that US servicewomen must wear the Saudi abaya when off-base in that country.
    https://www.rutherford.org/publications_resources/on_the_front_lines/pr402

    The lawyers representing McSally were from the libertarian Rutherford Institute in Virginia...

    Hmm?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Meanwhile, with all the misery in the world, the Mail have a nice uplifting story about a perfect marriage:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-3599999/Portrait-perfect-marriage-11-years-Elton-proposed-David.html

    I like this bit:

    "Whether it has been to share pictures of their star-packed wedding, to announce the arrival of their two children born by a surrogate mother — even revealing they had her breast milk delivered to them by FedEx — or repeatedly posing for happy family snaps, they have revealed the most intimate moments of their perfect family life.

    And if, by so doing, they have also been promoting their own profiles, their latest professional projects, or their charity work, then who are cynics to quibble about the couple invading their own privacy?"

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,253

    Meanwhile, with all the misery in the world, the Mail have a nice uplifting story about a perfect marriage:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-3599999/Portrait-perfect-marriage-11-years-Elton-proposed-David.html

    I like this bit:

    "Whether it has been to share pictures of their star-packed wedding, to announce the arrival of their two children born by a surrogate mother — even revealing they had her breast milk delivered to them by FedEx — or repeatedly posing for happy family snaps, they have revealed the most intimate moments of their perfect family life.

    And if, by so doing, they have also been promoting their own profiles, their latest professional projects, or their charity work, then who are cynics to quibble about the couple invading their own privacy?"

    Who indeed?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,253
    I wonder what that number is for the general population? It might be pretty similar....
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Interesting bit from Norman Lamb here on mental health issues. He would have been a very good party leader:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/wellbeing/mood-and-mind/norman-lamb-my-sons-mental-health-problems-made-me-determined-to/
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    I wonder what that number is for the general population? It might be pretty similar....
    While I have booked off the morning after. I cannot resist election all nighters.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Latest ARSE4EU Referendum Projection Countdown

    9999 Seconds
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Amusing article on Trump's irresistible rise.
    http://www.mediaite.com/online/polls-now-firmly-on-trumps-side-as-candidate-masterfully-adopts-hillarys-greatest-strength/

    He's playing the Media "like a grand piano"...
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    Interesting bit from Norman Lamb here on mental health issues. He would have been a very good party leader:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/wellbeing/mood-and-mind/norman-lamb-my-sons-mental-health-problems-made-me-determined-to/

    John Thurso, now back in parliament, would be a better choice for the LibDems

    Forward Into The Future With Viscounts

    Huzzah For The Scottish Aristocracy

    :smile:
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,062
    edited May 2016
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,312
    Andrew Neil definitely reads this blog. He mentioned on This Week that turnout at the 1975 referendum was lower than the elections in 1974. The only place that I have seen this point made was on here.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,171
    tlg86 said:

    Andrew Neil definitely reads this blog. He mentioned on This Week that turnout at the 1975 referendum was lower than the elections in 1974. The only place that I have seen this point made was on here.

    I wouldn't call that a slam dunk.... if you a potential discussion point was turnout, you'd check what the previous level was, and what it was in relation to the previous GE if you were going to make that comparison.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,062
    edited May 2016
    tlg86 said:

    Andrew Neil definitely reads this blog. He mentioned on This Week that turnout at the 1975 referendum was lower than the elections in 1974. The only place that I have seen this point made was on here.

    Maybe he's 'Vapid Bilge'? I think Michael Crick does too for a similar reason
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited May 2016
    How the narrative can change 180 degrees in a matter of weeks. Now the Dems descend into civil war...
    http://edition.cnn.com/2016/05/17/politics/democrat-bernie-sanders-revolt/

    And of course Trump never makes an appearance without telling the Bernie supporters they are being robbed of the Democratic nomination.

    The guy is a freaking genius.

  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492

    Meanwhile, with all the misery in the world, the Mail have a nice uplifting story about a perfect marriage:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-3599999/Portrait-perfect-marriage-11-years-Elton-proposed-David.html

    I chuckled as I looked at the front pages on BBC website. A case of champagne on its way to the Mail from the Sun?

    Disappointed really, always liked his music, turning into a complete pratt.
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    tlg86 said:

    Andrew Neil definitely reads this blog. He mentioned on This Week that turnout at the 1975 referendum was lower than the elections in 1974. The only place that I have seen this point made was on here.

    You don't think he has researchers to do his donkey work?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,247
    RodCrosby said:

    How the narrative can change 180 degrees in a matter of weeks. Now the Dems descend into civil war...
    http://edition.cnn.com/2016/05/17/politics/democrat-bernie-sanders-revolt/

    And of course Trump never makes an appearance without telling the Bernie supporters they are being robbed of the Democratic nomination.

    The guy is a freaking genius.

    He does seem to have got the hang of this politics thing pretty quickly doesn't he? I have been saying on here for a few weeks now that the damage Bernie is doing to the Democrats may prove terminal in November.
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    No mention of Muirfield on here?

    I'm meh about the outcome, doesn't affect me a bit but delighted that a private member's club has put principles ahead of money.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    DavidL said:

    RodCrosby said:

    How the narrative can change 180 degrees in a matter of weeks. Now the Dems descend into civil war...
    http://edition.cnn.com/2016/05/17/politics/democrat-bernie-sanders-revolt/

    And of course Trump never makes an appearance without telling the Bernie supporters they are being robbed of the Democratic nomination.

    The guy is a freaking genius.

    He does seem to have got the hang of this politics thing pretty quickly doesn't he?.
    He had the hang of it all along. But was brilliant at concealing the fact...
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    new thread

  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    No mention of Muirfield on here?

    I'm meh about the outcome, doesn't affect me a bit but delighted that a private member's club has put principles ahead of money.

    64% voted in favour of women members!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,735
    DavidL said:

    RodCrosby said:

    How the narrative can change 180 degrees in a matter of weeks. Now the Dems descend into civil war...
    http://edition.cnn.com/2016/05/17/politics/democrat-bernie-sanders-revolt/

    And of course Trump never makes an appearance without telling the Bernie supporters they are being robbed of the Democratic nomination.

    The guy is a freaking genius.

    He does seem to have got the hang of this politics thing pretty quickly doesn't he? I have been saying on here for a few weeks now that the damage Bernie is doing to the Democrats may prove terminal in November.
    It will change in a few weeks once the nomination battle is over. Sanders is is no way doing terminal damage, Hillary still has more Democrats backing her against Trump than Trump has Republicans
This discussion has been closed.