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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The polling that shows LEAVE’s emphasis on “sovereignty” si

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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    OllyT said:

    RobD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    RobD said:

    Viceroy said:

    A lot of talk about voting in to reform. Sigh, by the same usual delusion Tories who have peddled that lie for over 40 years now. I think people are missing the point anyway: if we vote to Remain inside it it'll take us for the ride of our lives. The rebate? Gone. Opposition to extended QMV? Over. Blocking an EU armed forces? Haha, you Britons have no choice - what are you going to do, you voted to stay inside?

    Ever higher immigration despite promises to bring it down, over higher bills with the rebate being sliced away at, an acceleration in powers going to Brussels in anticipation of political union by 2025 (see the Five Presidents Report), Turkey joining with the right to settle given to 80m poor Turks and so on. It's all so clear to see.

    Of course the Remainians in the Conservative Party will worm their way out of it. "We did not vote for that" oh really did you not? Despite all the warning signs being there. It'll be fun in future years to watch how Tory politicians will be interrogated on how they voted in the referendum: because those who voted to Remain in will be viewed at in the same way those who wanted to take us into the Eurozone are now.

    You make it sound like this will be the last opportunity to vote on it. If such refrains go shears I am sure there will be clamor for exit, especially if there is a push towards more political integration.
    The Posh Boys have told us repeatedly (in between fetching over POTUS to threaten their own citizens in their own country and comparing LEAVERS to the worst form of scum on Earth) that this is a "once in a lifetime" event.

    And on this I agree with the Posh Boys. We can't keep repeating referendums all the time. The spasm this referendum has produced is quite enough for our lifetimes.... So after this vote we're "in" forever and we'd better shut up whinging and make the best the best of it the (euro, single army, single country called USE, etc.)

    One way or another this has to be resolved.
    I disagree. We are not in forever. We can actually leave whenever we choose to.
    That's precisely where all the apocalyptic Leave scenarios crash and burn, If any of them ever came to pass we would simply leave at that point. I don;'t understand why Leavers can't grasp that fact.
    Think the EU wants an army to fight abroad?

    Think again.
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    "Tories need to stop pandering to the eurosceptics and try engaging in the EU with a positive attitude rather than constantly wingeing on the sidelines."

    I remember John Major saying he was going to do just that when he first became PM. Tony Blair said the same thing when he became PM. Both ended up in squabbles with the EU, though - its called defending the national interest. Other countries do it all the time, not just us.
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    The secret is getting a random sample. From this it is statistically possible via calculating the Standard Error to determine the probability limits of the answer. The Standard Error will be bigger for a sample of 800 vs 20 000 (other things being equal) and by a measurable amount.

    No amount of statictics can make up for a poor sample. Low participation rate is more interesting and can to some extent be addressed by multiple imputation.

    Thanks interesting post.

    I guess the question is how on earth you get that decent sample in a situation such as this.

    This must be a polling companies nightmare with so little to go on.

    Obviously there are ways of gauging it and there is no way they will tell us all their secrets. But I'm not sure we can read much other than the direction of travel as polls come in (and not even that as the methodology changes

    There is an interesting map associated with the petition against the £9 million leaflet drop and 220,000. It shows the breakdown per constituency. Sort of information you could use to weight your samples in an area http://petitionmap.unboxedconsulting.com/?petition=116762
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 56,564
    Cyclefree said:

    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    FPT:

    GIN1138 said:

    MP_SE said:

    I am slightly confused as to where the Sovereignty Bill has disappeared to.

    That lying, treacherous quisling Cameron abandoned the idea after he lied to the British people to get himself elected.... How did it all go so wrong... :(
    They'd still vote him back in as PM.

    Perhaps you're out touch?
    Maybe i am - if this poll is true then I've totally misread the character of the British people.

    I thought people like Plato, Cyclefree, Max PB, Philip Thompson, Sean Fear, Pulpstar, Sunil, Robert Smithson, Charles, Morris Dancer, Richard Tyndall and Gin1138 represented the common ground of British politics.

    If it turns out I (and they) are wrong then there will be a lot of thinking to do.

    I myself won't have much interest in carrying on in politics. So enjoy it.
    My stated goal is to reduce government spending in the UK to 6% of GDP. I'm not sure that makes me the common ground.
    I don't think I represent the common ground of British politics.
    I have no idea what I represent or whether I represent anything. But I would make a fantastic Dictatrix! :).

    So good in fact that even Casino Royale might be persuaded to take an interest in politics again.
    That sounds like a come on! ;-)
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 56,564

    Viceroy said:

    A lot of talk about voting in to reform. Sigh, by the same usual delusion Tories who have peddled that lie for over 40 years now. I think people are missing the point anyway: if we vote to Remain inside it it'll take us for the ride of our lives. The rebate? Gone. Opposition to extended QMV? Over. Blocking an EU armed forces? Haha, you Britons have no choice - what are you going to do, you voted to stay inside?

    Ever higher immigration despite promises to bring it down, over higher bills with the rebate being sliced away at, an acceleration in powers going to Brussels in anticipation of political union by 2025 (see the Five Presidents Report), Turkey joining with the right to settle given to 80m poor Turks and so on. It's all so clear to see.

    Of course the Remainians in the Conservative Party will worm their way out of it. "We did not vote for that" oh really did you not? Despite all the warning signs being there. It'll be fun in future years to watch how Tory politicians will be interrogated on how they voted in the referendum: because those who voted to Remain in will be viewed at in the same way those who wanted to take us into the Eurozone are now.

    Given we retain a veto over most of those changes why would they happen?
    VM'ed you.
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    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Chris_A said:

    MTimT said:

    So, we have made the momentous decision to switch to American English for the marketing of our US events. I was the only one who voted against. I am not happy. Sometimes democracy really sucks.

    Southam. Just let us know when any events are advertised and those of us dedicated to the proper use of English can make complaints. :-)

    LOL - absolutely.

    I actually raised my voice today, which is very unusual.

    But how long ago did you switch to using the American version of billion? Does anyone use the British version any more?
    Yes. Me. Always.
    How often does that lead to misunderstandings? Or do you always stipulate that you mean a British billion?
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 56,564

    Chris Cook of Newsnight's tweet summary:

    Chris Cook ‏@xtophercook

    My reading is that the deal abolishes distinction between Saturday and Sunday, so there's now just "weekend". (1/3)

    You'll get plaintime if you work the odd Saturday/Sunday like any other day. Unless you do 12 weekend days in a single year (2/3)

    This moves cash from people who do odd weekend shifts to people who do loads of them. Saturday and Sunday is specialish. (3/3)

    Night pay is lower in this new deal, too. 37% premium v 50% in the old. It has to be said, this feels like a win for the DH (4/3)

    That doesn't really seem worth the candle.
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    VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,444
    The European Commission published today its spring economic forecast for the EU. http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/eu/forecasts/2016_spring_forecast_en.htm

    Good graphics on the website.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Pulpstar said:

    Chris Cook of Newsnight's tweet summary:

    Chris Cook ‏@xtophercook

    My reading is that the deal abolishes distinction between Saturday and Sunday, so there's now just "weekend". (1/3)

    You'll get plaintime if you work the odd Saturday/Sunday like any other day. Unless you do 12 weekend days in a single year (2/3)

    This moves cash from people who do odd weekend shifts to people who do loads of them. Saturday and Sunday is specialish. (3/3)

    Night pay is lower in this new deal, too. 37% premium v 50% in the old. It has to be said, this feels like a win for the DH (4/3)

    Hunts proposed deal had the biggest pay cuts on the front line services who work most weekends, and a payrise for those who did not (amongst many other bad features). This sounds like quite a reversal.

    Of course both sides will claim victory, they usually do, but the obvious question is why did Hunt refuse to go back to ACAS in January and waste four months?
    Well it sounds (I have no idea if this is completely correct) that it will cost about the same as the previous deal.

    Perhaps a win for both parties ?
    The anew contract was cost neutral with the old contract , as indeed was the BMA counter proposal. The overall cost was always the same, though individuals would do better on one or other version. It was never just about money, but mostly about sustainable work life balance and safe working hours.
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024

    Doesn't everyone sleep naked nowadays?

    er,,,no no they don't but thanks for that picture.
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    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,919
    edited May 2016
    Chris_A said:

    MTimT said:

    So, we have made the momentous decision to switch to American English for the marketing of our US events. I was the only one who voted against. I am not happy. Sometimes democracy really sucks.

    Southam. Just let us know when any events are advertised and those of us dedicated to the proper use of English can make complaints. :-)

    LOL - absolutely.

    I actually raised my voice today, which is very unusual.

    But how long ago did you switch to using the American version of billion? Does anyone use the British version any more?
    Yes. Me. Always.
    Oh no you don't! Oh yes I do, you say! I've not heard the word 'milliard' used ever.

    I prefer the (historical) British usage, but it'd be so confusing to actually try to use that now that I've just gone with the flow. The American usage has the advantage that we may get to use the words. It's a bit of a shame that computing and the decimal system don't align.

    I was about to post that the world of computing uses a different system. Essentially a multiple of 1.024, but it seems that the definition of a kb is now 1000 bytes.

    Anyway as such there's now a correlation between say a 'Peta-thing' and a quadrillion.

    If we dabble in the yotta-bytes or yobi-bytes then life becomes too short.

    It's a bit disappointing that we haven't yet worked how to count mind you.


    Edit: I should say that billions are often referred to as 'yards' in the City, and I suspect that may be connected to 'milliards'
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    John_N4John_N4 Posts: 553
    Patrick said:

    John_N4 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I suspect most Conservative Association Chairman are in favour of reintroduction of the death penalty, but that most Conservative voters oppose it.

    I reckon most Tory voters support it. A poll conducted in 2015 showed 48% in favour, but curiously I couldn't find what figure it gave for those who were opposed.

    A poll in 2014 gave 45% for, 39% against.
    I used to support but am now against. I prefer full life with no possibility of parole. Death by prison. As opposed to death OR prison.
    I agree that life without the possibility of parole should be the maximum sentence. People such as Ian Brady and Ian Huntley should never get out of prison. The same goes for the killers of James Bulger. The possibility that a genuine rehabilitation could be achieved is outweighed by the rights of the rest of us not to take the risk. The report that stated that Jon Venables was "unlikely" to reoffend was absurd. He was a damned sight more likely to commit crimes against children than normal people are, and he always will be. But for murders that are less heinous, I'm OK with there being a system for making parole applications after a period of time.
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    TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited May 2016
    FT Westminster ‎@ftwestminster
    "GE, Cisco and Mars urge UK to stay in EU http://on.ft.com/206FCKB"

    Is that the Mars company that in past 10 years has closed down its factories in Leicestershire, Peterborough, Kings Lynn, Leeds and Slough (dundee road) leaving just one factory in UK? Its biggest factory is in Holland!
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    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Just had the company 1/4 ly overhaul of computers and software. The IT engineer mentioned the Locky virus. I mention it here as its a real nasty and once in you loose everything and there is no way of getting anything back. Regular back ups kept separate from the shared drives are essential. It may be your only way back.

    https://nakedsecurity.sophos.com/2016/02/17/locky-ransomware-what-you-need-to-know/I
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,485

    FT Westminster ‎@ftwestminster
    "GE, Cisco and Mars urge UK to stay in EU http://on.ft.com/206FCKB"

    Is that the Mars company that in past 10 years has closed down its factories in Leicestershire, Peterborough, Kings Lynn, Leeds and Slough (dundee road) leaving just one factory in UK? Its biggest factory is in Holland!

    Hang on, you've got to be careful with statements like that (I'm being serious). After all, they may have asked us to join the Euro.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,485

    The European Commission published today its spring economic forecast for the EU. http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/eu/forecasts/2016_spring_forecast_en.htm

    Good graphics on the website.

    Their forecast for Irish government debt-to-GDP is laughably high for 2016, and has likely already been passed. As Ireland reprivatises the banks and sells off the assets of NAMA, it'll come down much quicker than that.

    That gives me very little confidence in the rest of their forecasts.
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269

    Cyclefree said:

    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    FPT:

    GIN1138 said:

    MP_SE said:

    I am slightly confused as to where the Sovereignty Bill has disappeared to.

    That lying, treacherous quisling Cameron abandoned the idea after he lied to the British people to get himself elected.... How did it all go so wrong... :(
    They'd still vote him back in as PM.

    Perhaps you're out touch?
    Maybe i am - if this poll is true then I've totally misread the character of the British people.

    I thought people like Plato, Cyclefree, Max PB, Philip Thompson, Sean Fear, Pulpstar, Sunil, Robert Smithson, Charles, Morris Dancer, Richard Tyndall and Gin1138 represented the common ground of British politics.

    If it turns out I (and they) are wrong then there will be a lot of thinking to do.

    I myself won't have much interest in carrying on in politics. So enjoy it.
    My stated goal is to reduce government spending in the UK to 6% of GDP. I'm not sure that makes me the common ground.
    I don't think I represent the common ground of British politics.
    I have no idea what I represent or whether I represent anything. But I would make a fantastic Dictatrix! :).

    So good in fact that even Casino Royale might be persuaded to take an interest in politics again.
    That sounds like a come on! ;-)
    Honi soit qui mal y pense........ :)
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    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    So, we have made the momentous decision to switch to American English for the marketing of our US events. I was the only one who voted against. I am not happy. Sometimes democracy really sucks.

    Southam. Just let us know when any events are advertised and those of us dedicated to the proper use of English can make complaints. :-)

    LOL - absolutely.

    I actually raised my voice today, which is very unusual.

    Tsk. You've violated your workplace Safe Space, you fiend, you.
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    BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    Moses_ said:

    Just had the company 1/4 ly overhaul of computers and software. The IT engineer mentioned the Locky virus. I mention it here as its a real nasty and once in you loose everything and there is no way of getting anything back. Regular back ups kept separate from the shared drives are essential. It may be your only way back.

    https://nakedsecurity.sophos.com/2016/02/17/locky-ransomware-what-you-need-to-know/I

    There is a sure fire way of avoiding the Locky virus. Don't be a computer illiterate moron.

    We've got it on a machine we're testing... you have to see an email and actually run the java script,

    What ever you do be careful opening email attachments.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,080
    OllyT said:

    RobD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    RobD said:

    Viceroy said:

    A lot of talk about voting in to reform. Sigh, by the same usual delusion Tories who have peddled that lie for over 40 years now. I think people are missing the point anyway: if we vote to Remain inside it it'll take us for the ride of our lives. The rebate? Gone. Opposition to extended QMV? Over. Blocking an EU armed forces? Haha, you Britons have no choice - what are you going to do, you voted to stay inside?

    Ever higher immigration despite promises to bring it down, over higher bills with the rebate being sliced away at, an acceleration in powers going to Brussels in anticipation of political union by 2025 (see the Five Presidents Report), Turkey joining with the right to settle given to 80m poor Turks and so on. It's all so clear to see.

    Of course the Remainians in the Conservative Party will worm their way out of it. "We did not vote for that" oh really did you not? Despite all the warning signs being there. It'll be fun in future years to watch how Tory politicians will be interrogated on how they voted in the referendum: because those who voted to Remain in will be viewed at in the same way those who wanted to take us into the Eurozone are now.

    You make it sound like this will be the last opportunity to vote on it. If such refrains go shears I am sure there will be clamor for exit, especially if there is a push towards more political integration.
    The Posh Boys have told us repeatedly (in between fetching over POTUS to threaten their own citizens in their own country and comparing LEAVERS to the worst form of scum on Earth) that this is a "once in a lifetime" event.

    And on this I agree with the Posh Boys. We can't keep repeating referendums all the time. The spasm this referendum has produced is quite enough for our lifetimes.... So after this vote we're "in" forever and we'd better shut up whinging and make the best the best of it the (euro, single army, single country called USE, etc.)

    One way or another this has to be resolved.
    I disagree. We are not in forever. We can actually leave whenever we choose to.
    That's precisely where all the apocalyptic Leave scenarios crash and burn, If any of them ever came to pass we would simply leave at that point. I don;'t understand why Leavers can't grasp that fact.
    How exactly do we just "leave"?
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,076
    Careful, Mr. Royale, or Miss Cyclefree may have your guts for garters.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,055
    Charles said:

    Scott_P said:

    HA!

    @georgeeaton: No.10 spokesman says that sovereignty bill (not in Queen's Speech) will be published if UK votes to remain.

    But I guess it's ok that Remain doesn't tell us in advance what we are voting for. Or is that hypocrisy?
    No, that's LEAVE.....
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,682
    Just watched the Trump/Megyn Kelly interview. The most interesting statement was Trump saying that if he doesn't go all the way and win he'll consider it to have been a 'total and complete waste of time, energy and money'.
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,975
    edited May 2016

    Pulpstar said:

    Chris Cook of Newsnight's tweet summary:

    Chris Cook ‏@xtophercook

    My reading is that the deal abolishes distinction between Saturday and Sunday, so there's now just "weekend". (1/3)

    You'll get plaintime if you work the odd Saturday/Sunday like any other day. Unless you do 12 weekend days in a single year (2/3)

    This moves cash from people who do odd weekend shifts to people who do loads of them. Saturday and Sunday is specialish. (3/3)

    Night pay is lower in this new deal, too. 37% premium v 50% in the old. It has to be said, this feels like a win for the DH (4/3)

    Hunts proposed deal had the biggest pay cuts on the front line services who work most weekends, and a payrise for those who did not (amongst many other bad features). This sounds like quite a reversal.

    Of course both sides will claim victory, they usually do, but the obvious question is why did Hunt refuse to go back to ACAS in January and waste four months?
    Well it sounds (I have no idea if this is completely correct) that it will cost about the same as the previous deal.

    Perhaps a win for both parties ?
    The anew contract was cost neutral with the old contract , as indeed was the BMA counter proposal. The overall cost was always the same, though individuals would do better on one or other version. It was never just about money, but mostly about sustainable work life balance and safe working hours.
    Presumably just cost neutral as long as work patterns don't change. I think Hunt's objective was to get hospitals to do more at weekends. From the sound of it, this deal would make that change more expensive. I guess he now accepts there will be relatively little change at this stage.. which is what the doctors wanted, of course.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,890

    Doesn't everyone sleep naked nowadays?

    I do, I have done for years :)

    #Nudistan
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    BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    On the subject of the thread... this is a poll which will dishearten leave...

    But it's a wee bit early to either count chickens or cry over spilt milk.

    As I understand it this poll found Conservative voters breaking 28% for remain. I find that a little odd given that 6 months ago it would have been at least 5 or 10% for leave. I would accept it could have moved, but not that far.

    I seem to remember an election in the dim and distant past, 2015 I believe where it was definitely going to be a hung parliament right up to around half way through the count when the Nuneaton result came through.... Since then fiddle factors have changed and changed again during the run up to the vote.

    I am glad I haven't got money on this one. (Yet).
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    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,919
    GIN1138 said:

    OllyT said:



    How exactly do we just "leave"?

    The lawyers will work that out. I know what you mean, but how do you just leave a marriage? Basically we do it and pay the lawyers to work out the details.

    We should immediately nationalise the appointed lawyers. They'll be the most profitable part of our economy for about 20 years. 30 if the EU rump nations want Welsh visiting rights.

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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Moses_ said:

    Just had the company 1/4 ly overhaul of computers and software. The IT engineer mentioned the Locky virus. I mention it here as its a real nasty and once in you loose everything and there is no way of getting anything back. Regular back ups kept separate from the shared drives are essential. It may be your only way back.

    https://nakedsecurity.sophos.com/2016/02/17/locky-ransomware-what-you-need-to-know/I

    The problem is ransomware in general -- not just one brand. There are naughty people out there.
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822

    ttps://twitter.com/Stronger_ln/status/732933384872329217

    :lol:
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    BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    One of the problems the remain campaign are going to have is that they are becoming too easy to parody and laugh at.

    The other day in the office Christine Lagarde was saying leave would be pretty bad to very very bad. Remainers laughed,
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    LadyBucketLadyBucket Posts: 590
    Just seen Colonel Thornberry-Bucket's "bollocks" comment. Not very edifying for a Shadow Minister but then there is so much shabby behaviour from all sides at the moment.
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    MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    edited May 2016
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,156
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    LadyBucketLadyBucket Posts: 590
    I see Nicola's boys are having trouble keeping their trousers zipped up. I guess cosy nights in a London Hotel are preferable to long dark nights in the Hebrides - lol.
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    On the subject of the thread... this is a poll which will dishearten leave...

    But it's a wee bit early to either count chickens or cry over spilt milk.

    As I understand it this poll found Conservative voters breaking 28% for remain. I find that a little odd given that 6 months ago it would have been at least 5 or 10% for leave. I would accept it could have moved, but not that far.

    I seem to remember an election in the dim and distant past, 2015 I believe where it was definitely going to be a hung parliament right up to around half way through the count when the Nuneaton result came through.... Since then fiddle factors have changed and changed again during the run up to the vote.

    I am glad I haven't got money on this one. (Yet).

    To work they need the population to act in a reasonably predictable manner, something that increasingly they are not doing.
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    Paul_BedfordshirePaul_Bedfordshire Posts: 3,632
    edited May 2016
    I reckon OGH has been caught up in one too many traffic Jams on the Ampthill Road lately since that Morissons opened complete with four way traffic lights :-)
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    volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    The poll didn't ask about the ability of Brits to live,work and retire in the EU.Could be quite popular,dreams of the villa down the Costas and all that.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,890
    Surely ISIS believe in a single, sprawling, centralised superstate? Just like the EU :)
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    LewisDuckworthLewisDuckworth Posts: 379
    edited May 2016
    Roger said:

    Scott_P said:

    @politicshome: Neil Hamilton brands Leanne Wood a 'concubine' in furious attack over Carwyn Jones FM deal: https://t.co/VtJT3rAn1O https://t.co/y6AhU2bW8i

    He hasn't lost his touch.
    Isn't it extraordinary that someone as corrupt should be back in any part of a UK parliament however mickey mouse
    Blimey, any corruption was merely a warmup act for the really serious stuff which came along under NewLabour - stuff which saw six MPs jailed, a number having to stand down, and hundreds with reputations sullied over house-flipping etc. etc.
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    Sean_F said:
    Would that be in an Oxford City Council by election?
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269

    Careful, Mr. Royale, or Miss Cyclefree may have your guts for garters.

    Now, now! I'm a great big softie .......... when I want to be. :)
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    BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944

    On the subject of the thread... this is a poll which will dishearten leave...

    But it's a wee bit early to either count chickens or cry over spilt milk.

    As I understand it this poll found Conservative voters breaking 28% for remain. I find that a little odd given that 6 months ago it would have been at least 5 or 10% for leave. I would accept it could have moved, but not that far.

    I seem to remember an election in the dim and distant past, 2015 I believe where it was definitely going to be a hung parliament right up to around half way through the count when the Nuneaton result came through.... Since then fiddle factors have changed and changed again during the run up to the vote.

    I am glad I haven't got money on this one. (Yet).

    To work they need the population to act in a reasonably predictable manner, something that increasingly they are not doing.
    Quite.

    I had a look though the AV referendum polls today.

    All wrong.

    To be fair they all got the outcome right but it was much more emphatic than polls suggested.

    This is very uncharted territory. My work colleagues are mostly unenthusiastic remainers with one enthusiast (young person likes being in big clubs and cheap holidays, would have loved the Warsaw pact and the gulags then) whereas where I live they are mostly determined leavers. Odd.
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    runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
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    Yorkcity said:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/16/the-leave-campaign-is-really-the-donald-trump-campaign-with-bett/

    William Hague has certainly moved a long way since his 97 - 2001 leader of the opposition days.

    It'll be interesting to see how the Referendum vote varies according to the stance of the sitting or ex-MP ... (I'm not sure (?) if results are released by Parliamentary constituency or local authority area).
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,055

    I see Nicola's boys are having trouble keeping their trousers zipped up. I guess cosy nights in a London Hotel are preferable to long dark nights in the Hebrides - lol.

    It gets worse - one of the wronged wives (Mrs Hosie) is an MSP and besties with Nicola.....
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753

    On the subject of the thread... this is a poll which will dishearten leave...

    But it's a wee bit early to either count chickens or cry over spilt milk.

    As I understand it this poll found Conservative voters breaking 28% for remain. I find that a little odd given that 6 months ago it would have been at least 5 or 10% for leave. I would accept it could have moved, but not that far.

    I seem to remember an election in the dim and distant past, 2015 I believe where it was definitely going to be a hung parliament right up to around half way through the count when the Nuneaton result came through.... Since then fiddle factors have changed and changed again during the run up to the vote.

    I am glad I haven't got money on this one. (Yet).

    To work they need the population to act in a reasonably predictable manner, something that increasingly they are not doing.
    Quite.

    I had a look though the AV referendum polls today.

    All wrong.

    To be fair they all got the outcome right but it was much more emphatic than polls suggested.

    This is very uncharted territory. My work colleagues are mostly unenthusiastic remainers with one enthusiast (young person likes being in big clubs and cheap holidays, would have loved the Warsaw pact and the gulags then) whereas where I live they are mostly determined leavers. Odd.
    I don't mind the polls being way out (its the pollster's look out after all) - as long as they can't be used to convince one side they are beaten before they get to the ballot box. That it is all over bar the shouting, no point you turning up.

  • Options
    EPGEPG Posts: 6,213

    Roger said:

    Scott_P said:

    @politicshome: Neil Hamilton brands Leanne Wood a 'concubine' in furious attack over Carwyn Jones FM deal: https://t.co/VtJT3rAn1O https://t.co/y6AhU2bW8i

    He hasn't lost his touch.
    Isn't it extraordinary that someone as corrupt should be back in any part of a UK parliament however mickey mouse
    Blimey, any corruption was merely a warmup act for the really serious stuff which came along under NewLabour - stuff which saw six MPs jailed, a number having to stand down, and hundreds with reputations sullied over house-flipping etc. etc.
    Yes, the Tory bit of expenses fiddling was due to NeoLabour.
    Only on PB.
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    BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    taffys said:

    On the subject of the thread... this is a poll which will dishearten leave...

    But it's a wee bit early to either count chickens or cry over spilt milk.

    As I understand it this poll found Conservative voters breaking 28% for remain. I find that a little odd given that 6 months ago it would have been at least 5 or 10% for leave. I would accept it could have moved, but not that far.

    I seem to remember an election in the dim and distant past, 2015 I believe where it was definitely going to be a hung parliament right up to around half way through the count when the Nuneaton result came through.... Since then fiddle factors have changed and changed again during the run up to the vote.

    I am glad I haven't got money on this one. (Yet).

    To work they need the population to act in a reasonably predictable manner, something that increasingly they are not doing.
    Quite.

    I had a look though the AV referendum polls today.

    All wrong.

    To be fair they all got the outcome right but it was much more emphatic than polls suggested.

    This is very uncharted territory. My work colleagues are mostly unenthusiastic remainers with one enthusiast (young person likes being in big clubs and cheap holidays, would have loved the Warsaw pact and the gulags then) whereas where I live they are mostly determined leavers. Odd.
    I don't mind the polls being way out (its the pollster's look out after all) - as long as they can't be used to convince one side they are beaten before they get to the ballot box. That it is all over bar the shouting, no point you turning up.

    I don't see the polling reported widely at this stage so no chance of demoralising the voters. We will see what happens to the troops,
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    MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    edited May 2016

    I see Nicola's boys are having trouble keeping their trousers zipped up. I guess cosy nights in a London Hotel are preferable to long dark nights in the Hebrides - lol.

    It gets worse - one of the wronged wives (Mrs Hosie) is an MSP and besties with Nicola.....
    "Stirring someone else's porridge" is a memorable Scottish expression.
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    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,252

    I see Nicola's boys are having trouble keeping their trousers zipped up. I guess cosy nights in a London Hotel are preferable to long dark nights in the Hebrides - lol.

    It gets worse - one of the wronged wives (Mrs Hosie) is an MSP and besties with Nicola.....
    "Stirring someone else's porridge" is a memorable Scottish expression.
    with a spurtle?
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    OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,943
    GIN1138 said:

    OllyT said:

    RobD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    RobD said:

    Viceroy said:

    A lot of talk about voting in to reform. Sigh, by the same usual delusion Tories who have peddled that lie for over 40 years now. I think people are missing the point anyway: if we vote to Remain inside it it'll take us for the ride of our lives. The rebate? Gone. Opposition to extended QMV? Over. Blocking an EU armed forces? Haha, you Britons have no choice - what are you going to do, you voted to stay inside?

    Ever higher immigration despite promises to bring it down, over higher bills with the rebate being sliced away at, an acceleration in powers going to Brussels in anticipation of political union by 2025 (see the Five Presidents Report), Turkey joining with the right to settle given to 80m poor Turks and so on. It's all so clear to see.

    Of course the Remainians in the Conservative Party will worm their way out of it. "We did not vote for that" oh really did you not? Despite all the warning signs being there. It'll be fun in future years to watch how Tory politicians will be interrogated on how they voted in the referendum: because those who voted to Remain in will be viewed at in the same way those who wanted to take us into the Eurozone are now.

    You make it sound like this will be the last opportunity to vote on it. If such refrains go shears I am sure there will be clamor for exit, especially if there is a push towards more political integration.
    The Posh Boys have told us repeatedly (in between fetching over POTUS to threaten their own citizens in their own country and comparing LEAVERS to the worst form of scum on Earth) that this is a "once in a lifetime" event.

    And on this I agree with the Posh Boys. We can't keep repeating referendums all the time. The spasm this referendum has produced is quite enough for our lifetimes.... So after this vote we're "in" forever and we'd better shut up whinging and make the best the best of it the (euro, single army, single country called USE, etc.)

    One way or another this has to be resolved.
    I disagree. We are not in forever. We can actually leave whenever we choose to.
    That's precisely where all the apocalyptic Leave scenarios crash and burn, If any of them ever came to pass we would simply leave at that point. I don;'t understand why Leavers can't grasp that fact.
    How exactly do we just "leave"?
    er.. by voting to do so like we could next month?
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    Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237
    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    @sarah_bloch: ACAS statement presented to Drs and Govt, agreed subject to referendum of junior doctors

    @sarah_bloch: All junior docs will move onto new terms between August 16 and September 17 subject to approval by junior docs

    Wonder if the Drs got their money?
    I cannot believe the imbecility of some on this site.

    Throughout even the DoH has maintained that any deal would be cost neutral - that was true of the now abandoned imposed contract and probably true of this new one. If that's too difficult a concept it means that exactly the same number of doctors would be paid exactly the same amount of money. If you can find your 2 brain cells can you put them together and tell me exactly how this dispute was about pay?
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