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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The polling that shows LEAVE’s emphasis on “sovereignty” simply isn’t resonating

It’s been a big morning with EURef polling. First we had YouGov online showing a 4% IN lead on a revised methodology. Then then we had the May Ipsos phone poll in the Standard with IN extending its lead to 18%. That’s a huge margin and it is starting to look insurmountable.

Read the full story here

Hertsmere_Pubgoer

First like leave

TheScreamingEagles

It's the economy. I'm shocked by that.

Like finding out there's gambling going on Rick's cafe.

Sean_F

15% means it's an important issue for Leave; just not as important as immigration.

TonyE

The problem is clearly a lack of understanding that the question of 'Who Governs' drives all the other issues - sovereignty is too nebulous a cause.

JackW

Nabbers.

If voters wanted out of the EU then they had the option to vote for UKIP or Con LEAVE candidates at the general election.

The "collateral damage" has been in my opinion significant. Uncertainty damaging the economy and a government riven by dissent, division and a policy programme thinner than OGH's hair .... and worst of all John O lost his seat.

Self inflicted and unnecessary.

Richard_Tyndall

Why do you not include the BES survey in your table Mike? (serious question)

Casino_Royale

If we truly don't believe that Britain having the ability to make its own laws is important, then we can't complain in future if we don't have the ability to make our own laws.

MarkHopkins

Leave need to put together a campaign of "Everyone £x per week better off when we Leave".

Worked out from the EU contribution, increase in wages, better ability to trade across the world etc.

Remain may call BS on it, but it's no less accurate than the other side.

Richard_Tyndall

By the way you have the same ORB phone survey listed twice.

Paul_Bedfordshire

FPT.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

Just looked into the detail of the recent ICM polls.

The online one had a sample more than twice as big as the telephone poll. (2048 vs 1002)

In fact Remain have not had more than a 2% lead in any poll since 22nd March which surveyed more than 1250 people.

In polls with more than 1250 people Remain are ahead in 8 and Leave 12 . The majority of such polls with a remain lead (5 out of 8) were conducted before 7th April.

Size isn't important. At the 2010 GE the final ICM phone poll with 2k respondents was a lot more accurate than the final YouGov poll which had 6,000 respondents.

Both of those polls were 2000+

Once you start falling below 2000 it gets more iffy. Many of the polls showing a remain lead were about 1000 and some less than that (800 for a couple).

Suspect it reflects the increasing difficulty phone polling companies have getting people to co-operate rather than not answering or slamming the phone down when they realise it is an unsolicited call centre phoning.

MaxPB

FPT:

TOPPING said:

I think that is a problem with UK politicians more than a problem with the EU. Politicians have promised any amount of old bolleaux over the years only for them to renege or reinterpret their promises. In this case the EU is the subject.

If the country really cared they would have voted UKIP and we would be out of it by now. Except they realise that UKIP politicians are at best as bad and arguably worse than the lot we have at the moment.

(I don't think politicians are lying duplicitous b*st*rds, btw, but I do think they try to square a lot of circles.)

Well you're making my point for me, how do you square the circle of our marginalisation within the EU if we stay under the current status quo terms? I would do it by, preferably, leaving or by going all in. The idea that has been sold to the British public by politicians, either of the Labour or Tory kind, that we can have a third way within the EU, a one foot out of the door approach, is clearly rubbish. Every time they have said we could do it they have been proved wrong. They said when we didn't going the EMU that we would still be at the heart of the EU, that's bullshit, they said when we opted out of the "political union" it would no longer be an issue, and yet here we are trying to opt-out of it again.

The Remain side must look at the EU for what it really is, not what their ideal version of it is. It is a political union designed to create a superstate, not just a loose economic partnership with harmonisation of goods standards.

Just as I am voting to Leave knowing that it will cause some extent of economic uncertainty in the short term, the remain side must do so knowing that it will lead Britain down the path of further marginalisation under the current deal, or having to go all in.

brokenwheel

Yes, how awful, third highest issue...

But of course you avoid the point that border control, economics etc can be considered aspects of sovereignty, so it's a stupid comparison. While people may not specifically state it, and instead focus on one of the aspects on their mind, that has nothing do with whether sovereignty affects their decision.

Sean_F

Richard_Tyndall said:

By the way you have the same ORB phone survey listed twice.

I think he's waiting for the tables to be published.

david_kendrick1

'Sovereignty' doesn't resonate? Of course it doesn't. Similarly, there are no votes in 'democracy'.

I've never understood why Brexit campaigners ever mention either.

We need to concentrate on where the EU does real damage. Excessive EU immigration leads to the undercutting of wages, the over-stretching of services and contributes to damaging the Green Belt.

chestnut

Remain are home and dry on 95% turnout

FrancisUrquhart

The difference in the polling numbers is mind blowing. For a two horse race to have differences of 20+ % between polls.

GIN1138

Casino_Royale said:

It's hard to disagree with that. If the British are a lot of grumblers but secretly quite europhile in the ballot box then our current position makes no sense.

When we vote REMAIN we should sign up to the full superstate package. The Euro. The single army. The single President. The anthem. The flag. All of it. We can't continue with our present absurd position of moaning endlessly about the whole thing but continuing to want to be a part of it.

We have to take revenge on Cameron and particularly Osborne for what they've done but when they've gone I think we must seize our destiny by casting ourselves away from being a sovereign nation and accepting, even embracing, the fact we are mere, tiny, insignificant "State" on the outmost part of the United Sates Of Europe...

TheScreamingEagles

Richard_Tyndall said:

Why do you not include the BES survey in your table Mike? (serious question)

When I spoke to Mike on the phone this morning he was waiting to get his hands on the data. All we've had so far is the rough fieldwork dates, sample sizes, VI, is self certifying turnout, etc

I've emailed the people at BES for details

Casino_Royale

MaxPB said:

FPT:

TOPPING said:

I think that is a problem with UK politicians more than a problem with the EU. Politicians have promised any amount of old bolleaux over the years only for them to renege or reinterpret their promises. In this case the EU is the subject.

If the country really cared they would have voted UKIP and we would be out of it by now. Except they realise that UKIP politicians are at best as bad and arguably worse than the lot we have at the moment.

(I don't think politicians are lying duplicitous b*st*rds, btw, but I do think they try to square a lot of circles.)

Well you're making my point for me, how do you square the circle of our marginalisation within the EU if we stay under the current status quo terms? I would do it by, preferably, leaving or by going all in. The idea that has been sold to the British public by politicians, either of the Labour or Tory kind, that we can have a third way within the EU, a one foot out of the door approach, is clearly rubbish. Every time they have said we could do it they have been proved wrong. They said when we didn't going the EMU that we would still be at the heart of the EU, that's bullshit, they said when we opted out of the "political union" it would no longer be an issue, and yet here we are trying to opt-out of it again.

The Remain side must look at the EU for what it really is, not what their ideal version of it is. It is a political union designed to create a superstate, not just a loose economic partnership with harmonisation of goods standards.

Just as I am voting to Leave knowing that it will cause some extent of economic uncertainty in the short term, the remain side must do so knowing that it will lead Britain down the path of further marginalisation under the current deal, or having to go all in.

I thought MalcolmG put it well when he said we're too scared of losing a fiver.

Most people (clearly) don't care about sovereignty or long-term benefits. They just care if they will be able to take that mini-break next month.

I think Leave will only win when (a) the EU goes totally ratshit and hits us majorly and directly in our pockets (b) a Tory PM advocates Leave with his/her Government (c) there is a ready made exit deal on the table to vote for.

There would be virtually no Project Fear the other way because all the apparatus of the establishment would be working the other way.

Richard_Tyndall

TheScreamingEagles said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Why do you not include the BES survey in your table Mike? (serious question)

When I spoke to Mike on the phone this morning he was waiting to get his hands on the data. All we've had so far is the rough fieldwork dates, sample sizes, VI, is self certifying turnout, etc

Understood. I wasn't sure if it was a member of the BPC or not.

JackW

Trump's wife said yesterday that her husband wasn't Hitler and now his daughter Ivanka says "he's not a groper .."

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/05/trump-no-groper-ivanka-223316

Sean_F

FrancisUrquhart said:

The difference in the polling numbers is mind blowing. For a two horse race to have differences of 20+ % between polls.

Differences between phone and online, and whether the pollster weights by certainty to vote or not.

See what a big difference is made to the ORB poll by turnout, for example.

DaemonBarber

This thread should have a "Warning: Contains Hyperbole" disclaimer...

TheScreamingEagles

Richard_Tyndall said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Why do you not include the BES survey in your table Mike? (serious question)

When I spoke to Mike on the phone this morning he was waiting to get his hands on the data. All we've had so far is the rough fieldwork dates, sample sizes, VI, is self certifying turnout, etc

Understood. I wasn't sure if it was a member of the BPC or not.

YouGov do the fieldwork for them so is done by a BPC pollster.

Beverley_C

I think leaving will create more problems than it solves but I am prepared to live with that.

If Brexit does not happen then somebody else will do it. The dutch seem prepared to try a "Nexit" if they get the chance and we already had the greeks' Grexit.

Sooner or later somebody will go and the unravelling will start, so the sooner the better. Probably.

Luckyguy1983

As I said when they statted mentioning it. Oh well.

williamglenn

brokenwheel said:

Yes, how awful, third highest issue...

But of course you avoid the point that border control, economics etc can be considered aspects of sovereignty, so it's a stupid comparison. While people may not specifically state it, and instead focus on one of the aspects on their mind, that has nothing do with whether sovereignty affects their decision.

There's also the challenge of separating it from the concept of democracy. What matters to most people how effective the mechanisms are to allow their point of view to be taken into account by the power structures that affect their daily lives. Whether that be the local council, or Westminster, or Google, or the European Union.

Whether or not the British state is fully 'sovereign' is seen as an arcane detail.

MaxPB

TheScreamingEagles said:

It's the economy. I'm shocked by that.

Like finding out there's gambling going on Rick's cafe.

Again, I'll go back to this one last time before I do some actual work.

How does the remain side square the circle of the British public being sold an economic vision of the EU with the reality of a political union? Let's say that remain wins, it's 55-45 in favour. Our position in the EU hasn't changed, we're still carping from the sidelines, and our position is being continually marginalised as we're not in the governing body of the EUParl and we're not in the EMU and don't have any kind of say over EMU monetary policy, the current driving force of EU economic growth.

I've come to the conclusion that the only way to ensure British prosperity is to leave or go all in, the status quo is the worst of both worlds, we don't get to govern ourselves fully and we are marginalised in the EU. At least the federalists are open and honest about their arguments, they believe that the UK couldn't survive alone in the world and wish to hitch us to the EU State. There aren't many of them for obvious reasons, but I can't help but agree with them in the event of a remain vote. It will be put up or shut up time if we vote to remain.

tlg86

MarkHopkins said:

Leave need to put together a campaign of "Everyone £x per week better off when we Leave".

Worked out from the EU contribution, increase in wages, better ability to trade across the world etc.

Remain may call BS on it, but it's no less accurate than the other side.

What I would do is take the 29% growth in GDP by 2030 if we leave the EU in that treasury report and work out how much better off each household would be relative to now. And then I would say, "don't take our word for it, take his" with a picture of Osborne.

john_zims

Any reason why the BES poll isn't featured in the above chart as that had 22,000 respondents?

Far more meaningful than the usual 2,000 or so respondents.

Richard_Tyndall

Looking at the polls this week I am amazed that we still have this vast difference between phone and online polling, particularly when done by the same companies.

I thought that after the last polling fiasco there had been some sort of big conference that was supposed to sort this out. If it is the same companies producing wildly different polls then it can't even be a disagreement between companies over which is more accurate. ICM for example would be arguing with themselves.

How do the polling companies move forward after this because at the moment it looks as if they have learnt nothing from the GE.

richardDodd

The EU as we know it will struggle on for another five years..then implode.

Sean_F

john_zims said:

Any reason why the BES poll isn't featured in the above chart as that had 22,000 respondents?

Far more meaningful than the usual 2,000 or so respondents.

A poll of 22,000 is scarcely more accurate than one of 2,000. But, it does have meaningful sub-samples.

Norm

Forgetting the phone polls for a moment You Gov shows DKs falling from 18% to just 5% over a 10 day period. Is this something to do with the methodology change?

Wanderer

Is it actually true that Leave is majoring on sovereignty? It's been hitting immigration pretty hard for the last couple of weeks.

Moses_

If and probably when remain wins can we then get rid of the House of Lords. Can we also get rid of the House of Commons at the same time. After all UK laws will only be legal if they are in line with European laws. So just except the laws from Europe and no need for all the UK layers of government then. Keep the Queen for old times sake (if we are allowed) and the school crossing attendants .

For UK laws all we need is a small portocabin in the corner of Parliament Square with lots of rubber stamps. Better still outsource the process entirely to a company in deepest India that can do the same thing for a tenth of the price. Debates about right or wrong of the imposed law can be aired on Jeremy Kyle.

Casino_Royale

GIN1138 said:

Casino_Royale said:

It's hard to disagree with that. If the British are a lot of grumblers but secretly quite europhile in the ballot box then our current position makes no sense.

When we vote REMAIN we should sign up to the full superstate package. The Euro. The single army. The single President. The anthem. The flag. All of it. We can't continue with our present absurd position of moaning endlessly about the whole thing but continuing to want to be a part of it.

We have to take revenge on Cameron and particularly Osborne for what they've done but when they've gone I think we must seize our destiny by casting ourselves away from being a sovereign nation and accepting, even embracing, the fact we are mere, tiny, insignificant "State" on the outmost part of the United Sates Of Europe...

Not my fight Gin.

Unfortunately I'm far too much of a soppy-eyes sentimentalist about England to ever emigrate, but I wish I had the courage to do so.

I will be very unhappy when we adopt the euro and fully subsume ourselves into a USE but I'm not going to kill myself fighting it.

Nor will I donate or remain a member of the Conservative Party. I will just quietly retire and try and come to terms with it.

MarkSenior

Note that Yougov give VI figures ( but excluding others ) so approx
Lab 36 Con 30 UKIP 18 LD 8

williamglenn

Richard_Tyndall said:

Looking at the polls this week I am amazed that we still have this vast difference between phone and online polling, particularly when done by the same companies.

Yes it's rather like hiring a plumber who then asks you whether you want him to use the monkey wrench or the spanner. I just care about the quality of the results and the experts should know what the best tools are.

MikeL

Does anyone find it ironic that Don't Know has increased from 8% to 13% in the issues league table - ie 13% don't know what issues are important to the decision.

Add on the 7% saying Nothing and that means 20% of people can't name anything.

felix

Casino_Royale said:

MaxPB said:

FPT:

TOPPING said:

I think that is a problem with UK politicians more than a problem with the EU. Politicians have promised any amount of old bolleaux over the years only for them to renege or reinterpret their promises. In this case the EU is the subject.

If the country really cared they would have voted UKIP and we would be out of it by now. Except they realise that UKIP politicians are at best as bad and arguably worse than the lot we have at the moment.

(I don't think politicians are lying duplicitous b*st*rds, btw, but I do think they try to square a lot of circles.)

Well you're making my point for me, how do you square the circle of our marginalisation within the EU if we stay under the current status quo terms? I would do it by, preferably, leaving or by going all in. The idea that has been sold to the British public by politicians, either of the Labour or Tory kind, that we can have a third way within the EU, a one foot out of the door approach, is clearly rubbish. Every time they have said we could do it they have been proved wrong. They said when we didn't going the EMU that we would still be at the heart of the EU, that's bullshit, they said when we opted out of the "political union" it would no longer be an issue, and yet here we are trying to opt-out of it again.

The Remain side must look at the EU for what it really is, not what their ideal version of it is. It is a political union designed to create a superstate, not just a loose economic partnership with harmonisation of goods standards.

Just as I am voting to Leave knowing that it will cause some extent of economic uncertainty in the short term, the remain side must do so knowing that it will lead Britain down the path of further marginalisation under the current deal, or having to go all in.

I thought MalcolmG put it well when he said we're too scared of losing a fiver.

Most people (clearly) don't care about sovereignty or long-term benefits. They just care if they will be able to take that mini-break next month.

I think Leave will only win when (a) the EU goes totally ratshit and hits us majorly and directly in our pockets (b) a Tory PM advocates Leave with his/her Government (c) there is a ready made exit deal on the table to vote for.

There would be virtually no Project Fear the other way because all the apparatus of the establishment would be working the other way.

In my experience the people generally get it right. Blaming the voters for being shallow, etc shows a contempt for democracy.

Paul_Bedfordshire

I note the ORB poll with a 15% brexit lead sampled a whopping 800 people. The IPSOS/Mori 1002.

The BES poll which we await a breathless article on sampled a tiny sample of er... 22,000 and had Leave ahead 43% to 40.5%

Hmm

tlg86

Sean_F said:

john_zims said:

Any reason why the BES poll isn't featured in the above chart as that had 22,000 respondents?

Far more meaningful than the usual 2,000 or so respondents.

A poll of 22,000 is scarcely more accurate than one of 2,000. But, it does have meaningful sub-samples.

What might matter more is the persistence (or otherwise) pollsters are showing in getting people to respond. Was it not the BES who found out that people who responded first time broke just for Labour, but those who had to be contacted four, five or six times broke overwhelmingly for the Tories?

TheScreamingEagles

MaxPB said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

It's the economy. I'm shocked by that.

Like finding out there's gambling going on Rick's cafe.

Again, I'll go back to this one last time before I do some actual work.

How does the remain side square the circle of the British public being sold an economic vision of the EU with the reality of a political union? Let's say that remain wins, it's 55-45 in favour. Our position in the EU hasn't changed, we're still carping from the sidelines, and our position is being continually marginalised as we're not in the governing body of the EUParl and we're not in the EMU and don't have any kind of say over EMU monetary policy, the current driving force of EU economic growth.

I've come to the conclusion that the only way to ensure British prosperity is to leave or go all in, the status quo is the worst of both worlds, we don't get to govern ourselves fully and we are marginalised in the EU. At least the federalists are open and honest about their arguments, they believe that the UK couldn't survive alone in the world and wish to hitch us to the EU State. There aren't many of them for obvious reasons, but I can't help but agree with them in the event of a remain vote. It will be put up or shut up time if we vote to remain.

I'm with Robert, we'll vote Remain in June and vote to Leave within a decade.

williamglenn

Wanderer said:

Is it actually true that Leave is majoring on sovereignty? It's been hitting immigration pretty hard for the last couple of weeks.

Has it? I've noticed more about knickers and Hitler.

anothernick

Another interesting figure in the IPSOS issues list is the cost of EU membership. Despite Leave droning on about how it's £350,000,000,000,000,000 per second (or something like that) and having it on the side of their bus on the TV every night less than 10% see it as an top issue.

LewisDuckworth

In my humble opinion, today's REf-Poll-inspired upward spike in Sterling has created a good opportunity to short the currency (against the dollar), which is sorely overvalued, given the UK's deficit on current account.

ThreeQuidder

A good poll for REMAIN from MORI gets a thread, a good poll for LEAVE from the BES doesn't.

Colour me shocked.

Wanderer

Concerning the ORB poll, shouldn't it be listed with the certainty-filtered 6% Remain lead, not the all-in 15% one?

MarkSenior

Richard_Tyndall said:

Looking at the polls this week I am amazed that we still have this vast difference between phone and online polling, particularly when done by the same companies.

I thought that after the last polling fiasco there had been some sort of big conference that was supposed to sort this out. If it is the same companies producing wildly different polls then it can't even be a disagreement between companies over which is more accurate. ICM for example would be arguing with themselves.

How do the polling companies move forward after this because at the moment it looks as if they have learnt nothing from the GE.

When the Online polls are shown to have been wrong on 23rd June there will be a blood letting .

Richard_Nabavi

Richard_Tyndall said:

Looking at the polls this week I am amazed that we still have this vast difference between phone and online polling, particularly when done by the same companies.

I thought that after the last polling fiasco there had been some sort of big conference that was supposed to sort this out. If it is the same companies producing wildly different polls then it can't even be a disagreement between companies over which is more accurate. ICM for example would be arguing with themselves.

How do the polling companies move forward after this because at the moment it looks as if they have learnt nothing from the GE.

To be fair, they were pretty good on the London Mayoral election, and not bad on Holyrood.

It may well be that the problems of the GE polling, and the evident big problems with at least one of the referendum sets of online/phone polls, have different causes. So fixing the GE voting intention weightings etc might not help with the referendum (conceivably, the re-weightings might even make things worse).

My hunch, FWIW, is that the simple explanation is probably right, namely that the high enthusiasm of Leavers is skewing the on-line polls through the well-known effect of self-selection in online polling. If I'm right, the phone polls will turn out to be the best guide. But it's only a hunch, of course, and I might be completely wrong.

TheScreamingEagles

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

I note the ORB poll with a 15% brexit lead sampled a whopping 800 people. The IPSOS/Mori 1002.

The BES poll which we await a breathless article on sampled a tiny sample of er... 22,000 and had Leave ahead 43% to 40.5%

Hmm

Anyone complaining about the lack of a BES thread, can they also post a link to the detailed data please, which includes the methodology and full breakdown. Ta.

Casino_Royale

felix said:

Casino_Royale said:

MaxPB said:

FPT:

TOPPING said:

I think that is a problem with UK politicians more than a problem with the EU. Politicians have promised any amount of old bolleaux over the years only for them to renege or reinterpret their promises. In this case the EU is the subject.

If the country really cared they would have voted UKIP and we would be out of it by now. Except they realise that UKIP politicians are at best as bad and arguably worse than the lot we have at the moment.

(I don't think politicians are lying duplicitous b*st*rds, btw, but I do think they try to square a lot of circles.)

Well you're making my point for me, how do you square the circle of our marginalisation within the EU if we stay under the current status quo terms? I would do it by, preferably, leaving or by going all in. The idea that has been sold to the British public by politicians, either of the Labour or Tory kind, that we can have a third way within the EU, a one foot out of the door approach, is clearly rubbish. Every time they have said we could do it they have been proved wrong. They said when we didn't going the EMU that we would still be at the heart of the EU, that's bullshit, they said when we opted out of the "political union" it would no longer be an issue, and yet here we are trying to opt-out of it again

I thought MalcolmG put it well when he said we're too scared of losing a fiver.

Most people (clearly) don't care about sovereignty or long-term benefits. They just care if they will be able to take that mini-break next month.

I think Leave will only win when (a) the EU goes totally ratshit and hits us majorly and directly in our pockets (b) a Tory PM advocates Leave with his/her Government (c) there is a ready made exit deal on the table to vote for.

There would be virtually no Project Fear the other way because all the apparatus of the establishment would be working the other way.

In my experience the people generally get it right. Blaming the voters for being shallow, etc shows a contempt for democracy.

Where have I shown any contempt for democracy? I've said I'll give up on politics if that is the result.

Disagreeing with the voters verdict doesn't mean you have contempt for democracy - or, to put it another way, if you are on the losing side it doesn't mean you are obliged to agree with the winner.

Contempt for democracy means refusing to accept the verdict, and what it means does, and attempting to overturn it by extrademocratic means.

I have not said I would do that, and nor would I ever do that.

TheScreamingEagles

ThreeQuidder said:

A good poll for REMAIN from MORI gets a thread, a good poll for LEAVE from the BES doesn't.

Colour me shocked.

Did you hear Remainers complaining when Mike didn't do a thread on the ORB poll that was good for Remain?

chestnut

Richard_Tyndall said:

Looking at the polls this week I am amazed that we still have this vast difference between phone and online polling, particularly when done by the same companies.

I thought that after the last polling fiasco there had been some sort of big conference that was supposed to sort this out. If it is the same companies producing wildly different polls then it can't even be a disagreement between companies over which is more accurate. ICM for example would be arguing with themselves.

How do the polling companies move forward after this because at the moment it looks as if they have learnt nothing from the GE.

ICM give the impression that they are using the referendum as an experiment in testing methodologies.

MarkSenior

TheScreamingEagles said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

I note the ORB poll with a 15% brexit lead sampled a whopping 800 people. The IPSOS/Mori 1002.

The BES poll which we await a breathless article on sampled a tiny sample of er... 22,000 and had Leave ahead 43% to 40.5%

Hmm

Anyone complaining about the lack of a BES thread, can they also post a link to the detailed data please, which includes the methodology and full breakdown. Ta.

Yep I have searched for the detailed methodology and data tables but they do not seem to exist .

Paul_Bedfordshire

Sean_F said:

john_zims said:

Any reason why the BES poll isn't featured in the above chart as that had 22,000 respondents?

Far more meaningful than the usual 2,000 or so respondents.

A poll of 22,000 is scarcely more accurate than one of 2,000. But, it does have meaningful sub-samples.

But probably more accurate than polls of 800 and 1,002 which is what the two telephone plls were

MikeK

I look on the latest polls with a jaundiced eye. The following is true and this all happened to me this morning.

I was on packed bus in Hackney going to Dalston where I was going to visit the local library. The woman next to me said, without any prompting, and who I didn't know from Eve, that she couldn't stand what was happening in Britain. I asked her why, and she said all these immigrants coming in have altered the country. I then asked what she was voting in the referendum. She said, leave. She also confirmed that all of her friends were going to vote leave too.

She also said that she was a Labour supporter and is a bit bemused by the party supporting remain.

MaxPB

TheScreamingEagles said:

MaxPB said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

It's the economy. I'm shocked by that.

Like finding out there's gambling going on Rick's cafe.

Again, I'll go back to this one last time before I do some actual work.

How does the remain side square the circle of the British public being sold an economic vision of the EU with the reality of a political union? Let's say that remain wins, it's 55-45 in favour. Our position in the EU hasn't changed, we're still carping from the sidelines, and our position is being continually marginalised as we're not in the governing body of the EUParl and we're not in the EMU and don't have any kind of say over EMU monetary policy, the current driving force of EU economic growth.

I've come to the conclusion that the only way to ensure British prosperity is to leave or go all in, the status quo is the worst of both worlds, we don't get to govern ourselves fully and we are marginalised in the EU. At least the federalists are open and honest about their arguments, they believe that the UK couldn't survive alone in the world and wish to hitch us to the EU State. There aren't many of them for obvious reasons, but I can't help but agree with them in the event of a remain vote. It will be put up or shut up time if we vote to remain.

I'm with Robert, we'll vote Remain in June and vote to Leave within a decade.

Then why not just do it now? The cost of separation will be much higher 10 years from now. The party will survive, Osborne is going to do more damage to the British economy than Leave ever could. His policies are now coming home to roost, the current account deficit is alarmingly high, the government deficit still hasn't been closed, the indicators are all negative and we're about to move into a higher inflationary period based on current oil prices, while wage growth isn't exactly stellar.

I don't want to be a part of the superstate any more than you do, but a vote to remain sets us down that path, hoping for a future referendum, one which may never arrive, when we have one now seems a bit crazy given all that is at stake.

Casino_Royale

TheScreamingEagles said:

MaxPB said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

It's the economy. I'm shocked by that.

Like finding out there's gambling going on Rick's cafe.

Again, I'll go back to this one last time before I do some actual work.

How does the remain side square the circle of the British public being sold an economic vision of the EU with the reality of a political union? Let's say that remain wins, it's 55-45 in favour. Our position in the EU hasn't changed, we're still carping from the sidelines, and our position is being continually marginalised as we're not in the governing body of the EUParl and we're not in the EMU and don't have any kind of say over EMU monetary policy, the current driving force of EU economic growth.

I've come to the conclusion that the only way to ensure British prosperity is to leave or go all in, the status quo is the worst of both worlds, we don't get to govern ourselves fully and we are marginalised in the EU. At least the federalists are open and honest about their arguments, they believe that the UK couldn't survive alone in the world and wish to hitch us to the EU State. There aren't many of them for obvious reasons, but I can't help but agree with them in the event of a remain vote. It will be put up or shut up time if we vote to remain.

I'm with Robert, we'll vote Remain in June and vote to Leave within a decade.

I don't think I could go through all this again.

Plato_Says

.

chestnut said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Looking at the polls this week I am amazed that we still have this vast difference between phone and online polling, particularly when done by the same companies.

I thought that after the last polling fiasco there had been some sort of big conference that was supposed to sort this out. If it is the same companies producing wildly different polls then it can't even be a disagreement between companies over which is more accurate. ICM for example would be arguing with themselves.

How do the polling companies move forward after this because at the moment it looks as if they have learnt nothing from the GE.

ICM give the impression that they are using the referendum as an experiment in testing methodologies.

Assuming we won't have another ref in short order, I'm not sure what the point would be - there's no control baseline.

Richard_Nabavi

Casino_Royale said:

I don't think I could go through all this again.

I think everyone will agree with that sentiment!

TheScreamingEagles

MaxPB said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MaxPB said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

It's the economy. I'm shocked by that.

Like finding out there's gambling going on Rick's cafe.

Again, I'll go back to this one last time before I do some actual work.

How does the remain side square the circle of the British public being sold an economic vision of the EU with the reality of a political union? Let's say that remain wins, it's 55-45 in favour. Our position in the EU hasn't changed, we're still carping from the sidelines, and our position is being continually marginalised as we're not in the governing body of the EUParl and we're not in the EMU and don't have any kind of say over EMU monetary policy, the current driving force of EU economic growth.

I've come to the conclusion that the only way to ensure British prosperity is to leave or go all in, the status quo is the worst of both worlds, we don't get to govern ourselves fully and we are marginalised in the EU. At least the federalists are open and honest about their arguments, they believe that the UK couldn't survive alone in the world and wish to hitch us to the EU State. There aren't many of them for obvious reasons, but I can't help but agree with them in the event of a remain vote. It will be put up or shut up time if we vote to remain.

I'm with Robert, we'll vote Remain in June and vote to Leave within a decade.

Then why not just do it now? The cost of separation will be much higher 10 years from now. The party will survive, Osborne is going to do more damage to the British economy than Leave ever could. His policies are now coming home to roost, the current account deficit is alarmingly high, the government deficit still hasn't been closed, the indicators are all negative and we're about to move into a higher inflationary period based on current oil prices, while wage growth isn't exactly stellar.

I don't want to be a part of the superstate any more than you do, but a vote to remain sets us down that path, hoping for a future referendum, one which may never arrive, when we have one now seems a bit crazy given all that is at stake.

Because sometimes it is wise to get out of the car at a good place, not whilst you're in the fast lane of the M62

Richard_Tyndall

MarkSenior said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Looking at the polls this week I am amazed that we still have this vast difference between phone and online polling, particularly when done by the same companies.

I thought that after the last polling fiasco there had been some sort of big conference that was supposed to sort this out. If it is the same companies producing wildly different polls then it can't even be a disagreement between companies over which is more accurate. ICM for example would be arguing with themselves.

How do the polling companies move forward after this because at the moment it looks as if they have learnt nothing from the GE.

When the Online polls are shown to have been wrong on 23rd June there will be a blood letting .

And similarly if the phone polls are shown to be wrong. It works both ways and I don't have your arrogance to try and claim one set is obviously right and the other wrong because it matches my hopes.

Casino_Royale

MaxPB said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MaxPB said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

It's the economy. I'm shocked by that.

Like finding out there's gambling going on Rick's cafe.

Again, I'll go back to this one last time before I do some actual work.

How does the remain side square the circle of the British public being sold an economic vision of the EU with the reality of a political union? Let's say that remain wins, it's 55-45 in favour. Our position in the EU hasn't changed, we're still carping from the sidelines, and our position is being continually marginalised as we're not in the governing body of the EUParl and we're not in the EMU and don't have any kind of say over EMU monetary policy, the current driving force of EU economic growth.

I've come to the conclusion that the only way to ensure British prosperity is to leave or go all in, the status quo is the worst of both worlds, we don't get to govern ourselves fully and we are marginalised in the EU. At least the federalists are open and honest about their arguments, they believe that the UK couldn't survive alone in the world and wish to hitch us to the EU State. There aren't many of them for obvious reasons, but I can't help but agree with them in the event of a remain vote. It will be put up or shut up time if we vote to remain.

I'm with Robert, we'll vote Remain in June and vote to Leave within a decade.

Then why not just do it now? The cost of separation will be much higher 10 years from now. The party will survive, Osborne is going to do more damage to the British economy than Leave ever could. His policies are now coming home to roost, the current account deficit is alarmingly high, the government deficit still hasn't been closed, the indicators are all negative and we're about to move into a higher inflationary period based on current oil prices, while wage growth isn't exactly stellar.

I don't want to be a part of the superstate any more than you do, but a vote to remain sets us down that path, hoping for a future referendum, one which may never arrive, when we have one now seems a bit crazy given all that is at stake.

If we do vote Remain there is, I suppose, a slim chance the EU will be the Leavers best ally.

Given they are total braindeadfuckwitmoronscum who think any vote to Remain means "more Europe" we should be royally rogered on a number of fronts, including taxes.

If we're lucky, this will make everyone so angry that almost everyone will want to Leave.

Things might have to get really really bad before we Leave, and they get better.

Which is precisely why I want to Leave now.

MarkSenior

Plato_Says said:

.

chestnut said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Looking at the polls this week I am amazed that we still have this vast difference between phone and online polling, particularly when done by the same companies.

I thought that after the last polling fiasco there had been some sort of big conference that was supposed to sort this out. If it is the same companies producing wildly different polls then it can't even be a disagreement between companies over which is more accurate. ICM for example would be arguing with themselves.

How do the polling companies move forward after this because at the moment it looks as if they have learnt nothing from the GE.

ICM give the impression that they are using the referendum as an experiment in testing methodologies.

Assuming we won't have another ref in short order, I'm not sure what the point would be - there's no control baseline.

The control baseline will be the actual result . ICM can then easily compare their Online and Phone poll figures and see which was more accurate . Comres and Populus can do the same as they also use both methods of polling . Yougov could be up the creek without a paddle as they only use Online polling .

Richard_Tyndall

ThreeQuidder said:

A good poll for REMAIN from MORI gets a thread, a good poll for LEAVE from the BES doesn't.

Colour me shocked.

It was explained earlier that until BES actually release their tables there is no point in having a thread. It would be meaningless as the devil is in the detail. I may think TSE is a TPD but I see his point here.

MaxPB

On the economy question, the answer to me is simple. We'll live. We may be slightly worse or better off if we leave, but at the end of the day, "we'll survive". This nation has existed for over a thousand years, leaving the EU isn't going to change that or really effect our prosperity over the long term. European nations outside of the EU have higher living standards than we do so there is nothing to fear.

Scott_P

@NigelCarterUKIP: 'An irresistible force' Secret talks for Farage and Boris to team up in battle for Brexit https://t.co/xFk9ZGT62w

Richard_Tyndall

TheScreamingEagles said:

MaxPB said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MaxPB said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

It's the economy. I'm shocked by that.

Like finding out there's gambling going on Rick's cafe.

Again, I'll go back to this one last time before I do some actual work.

How does the remain side square the circle of the British public being sold an economic vision of the EU with the reality of a political union? Let's say that remain wins, it's 55-45 in favour. Our position in the EU hasn't changed, we're still carping from the sidelines, and our position is being continually marginalised as we're not in the governing body of the EUParl and we're not in the EMU and don't have any kind of say over EMU monetary policy, the current driving force of EU economic growth.

I've come to the conclusion that the only way to ensure British prosperity is to leave or go all in, the status quo is the worst of both worlds, we don't get to govern ourselves fully and we are marginalised in the EU. At least the federalists are open and honest about their arguments, they believe that the UK couldn't survive alone in the world and wish to hitch us to the EU State. There aren't many of them for obvious reasons, but I can't help but agree with them in the event of a remain vote. It will be put up or shut up time if we vote to remain.

I'm with Robert, we'll vote Remain in June and vote to Leave within a decade.

Then why not just do it now? The cost of separation will be much higher 10 years from now. The party will survive, Osborne is going to do more damage to the British economy than Leave ever could. His policies are now coming home to roost, the current account deficit is alarmingly high, the government deficit still hasn't been closed, the indicators are all negative and we're about to move into a higher inflationary period based on current oil prices, while wage growth isn't exactly stellar.

I don't want to be a part of the superstate any more than you do, but a vote to remain sets us down that path, hoping for a future referendum, one which may never arrive, when we have one now seems a bit crazy given all that is at stake.

Because sometimes it is wise to get out of the car at a good place, not whilst you're in the fast lane of the M62

That good place being as we hurtle over a cliff?

Richard_Nabavi

Scott_P said:

@NigelCarterUKIP: 'An irresistible force' Secret talks for Farage and Boris to team up in battle for Brexit https://t.co/xFk9ZGT62w

Two egos on a battle bus.

What could possibly go wrong?

Wanderer

Richard_Tyndall said:

MarkSenior said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Looking at the polls this week I am amazed that we still have this vast difference between phone and online polling, particularly when done by the same companies.

I thought that after the last polling fiasco there had been some sort of big conference that was supposed to sort this out. If it is the same companies producing wildly different polls then it can't even be a disagreement between companies over which is more accurate. ICM for example would be arguing with themselves.

How do the polling companies move forward after this because at the moment it looks as if they have learnt nothing from the GE.

When the Online polls are shown to have been wrong on 23rd June there will be a blood letting .

And similarly if the phone polls are shown to be wrong. It works both ways and I don't have your arrogance to try and claim one set is obviously right and the other wrong because it matches my hopes.

Not sure there will be blood-letting either way. People will learn from the experience, try to tune their methodologies better for the future.

williamglenn

MaxPB said:

On the economy question, the answer to me is simple. We'll live. We may be slightly worse or better off if we leave, but at the end of the day, "we'll survive". This nation has existed for over a thousand years, leaving the EU isn't going to change that or really effect our prosperity over the long term. European nations outside of the EU have higher living standards than we do so there is nothing to fear.

There is only one geopolitically significant European country outside the EU - Russia. A future ally?

Edit: I was ignoring Ukraine but the point stands.

Bob__Sykes

Scott_P said:

@NigelCarterUKIP: 'An irresistible force' Secret talks for Farage and Boris to team up in battle for Brexit https://t.co/xFk9ZGT62w

Irresistible for whom?

Sounds like good news for Remain, with that pair of f--wits teaming up as a comedy turn touring the country!

ThreeQuidder

TheScreamingEagles said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

I note the ORB poll with a 15% brexit lead sampled a whopping 800 people. The IPSOS/Mori 1002.

The BES poll which we await a breathless article on sampled a tiny sample of er... 22,000 and had Leave ahead 43% to 40.5%

Hmm

Anyone complaining about the lack of a BES thread, can they also post a link to the detailed data please, which includes the methodology and full breakdown. Ta.

Some acknowledgement that it even exists would be a start. Of course, since all the regulars OTL are devout Remainians, we don't expect it.

Paul_Bedfordshire

TheScreamingEagles said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

I note the ORB poll with a 15% brexit lead sampled a whopping 800 people. The IPSOS/Mori 1002.

The BES poll which we await a breathless article on sampled a tiny sample of er... 22,000 and had Leave ahead 43% to 40.5%

Hmm

Anyone complaining about the lack of a BES thread, can they also post a link to the detailed data please, which includes the methodology and full breakdown. Ta.

It might just have come across as more objective if something like the above, noting the existence of the BES one but saying no data is yet available had been in the main article.

Omitting any mention of BES places the site in danger of looking like remain shills when the whole point of the site is to give reasonably objective inveatment advice for turf accountant investments.

SouthamObserver

Does anyone get excited by any of these polls?

MonikerDiCanio

Richard_Nabavi said:

Scott_P said:

@NigelCarterUKIP: 'An irresistible force' Secret talks for Farage and Boris to team up in battle for Brexit https://t.co/xFk9ZGT62w

Two egos on a battle bus.

What could possibly go wrong?

Lennon and McCartney. Clough and Taylor. Gin and Tonic. It might work.

MaxPB

TheScreamingEagles said:

Because sometimes it is wise to get out of the car at a good place, not whilst you're in the fast lane of the M62

And you think when we are being asked the superstate question we won't be in the same position.

There is never a "good" time to make a change. We have the opportunity, I intend to take it, I hope when you get to ballot box you will think hard about where a Remain vote leads for this country. There is no guarantee of another referendum. We could end up with the same scenario as last time where the EU will pause new treaties until we get a Labour government (see Nice, Lisbon) who will just repeal the referendum lock and push everything through like they did with Nice and Lisbon.

Wanderer

MaxPB said:

On the economy question, the answer to me is simple. We'll live. We may be slightly worse or better off if we leave, but at the end of the day, "we'll survive". This nation has existed for over a thousand years, leaving the EU isn't going to change that or really effect our prosperity over the long term. European nations outside of the EU have higher living standards than we do so there is nothing to fear.

I think Leave must (and probably can) do better than "we'll survive". People would like to do better than just continue to exist. We (collectively) survived the Black Death but wouldn't care to repeat it.

Why not explain how Brexit is definitely going to make people richer?

Casino_Royale

Bob__Sykes said:

Scott_P said:

@NigelCarterUKIP: 'An irresistible force' Secret talks for Farage and Boris to team up in battle for Brexit https://t.co/xFk9ZGT62w

Irresistible for whom?

Sounds like good news for Remain, with that pair of f--wits teaming up as a comedy turn touring the country!

I agree. Who'd have thought Dave and George would have such an impact?

TheScreamingEagles

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

I note the ORB poll with a 15% brexit lead sampled a whopping 800 people. The IPSOS/Mori 1002.

The BES poll which we await a breathless article on sampled a tiny sample of er... 22,000 and had Leave ahead 43% to 40.5%

Hmm

Anyone complaining about the lack of a BES thread, can they also post a link to the detailed data please, which includes the methodology and full breakdown. Ta.

It might just have come across as more objective if something like the above, noting the existence of the BES one but saying no data is yet available had been in the main article.

Omitting any mention of BES places the site in danger of looking like remain shills when the whole point of the site is to give reasonably objective inveatment advice for turf accountant investments.

This is a betting site, a thread based on not knowing all the info can skew things.

We're not even sure if it is GB/UK wide or England only poll.

taffys

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MaxPB said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

It's the economy. I'm shocked by that.

Like finding out there's gambling going on Rick's cafe.

Again, I'll go back to this one last time before I do some actual work.

How does the remain side square the circle of the British public being sold an economic vision of the EU with the reality of a political union? Let's say that remain wins, it's 55-45 in favour. Our position in the EU hasn't changed, we're still carping from the sidelines, and our position is being continually marginalised as we're not in the governing body of the EUParl and we're not in the EMU and don't have any kind of say over EMU monetary policy, the current driving force of EU economic growth.

I've come to the conclusion that the only way to ensure British prosperity is to leave or go all in, the status quo is the worst of both worlds, we don't get to govern ourselves fully and we are marginalised in the EU. At least the federalists are open and honest about their arguments, they believe that the UK couldn't survive alone in the world and wish to hitch us to the EU State. There aren't many of them for obvious reasons, but I can't help but agree with them in the event of a remain vote. It will be put up or shut up time if we vote to remain.

I'm with Robert, we'll vote Remain in June and vote to Leave within a decade.

I don't think I could go through all this again.

In 2015, David Cameron offered a referendum to keep the tory kipper tendency on board.

What, I wonder, will be offered in 2020. Free Union Jack cushion covers?

MaxPB

williamglenn said:

MaxPB said:

On the economy question, the answer to me is simple. We'll live. We may be slightly worse or better off if we leave, but at the end of the day, "we'll survive". This nation has existed for over a thousand years, leaving the EU isn't going to change that or really effect our prosperity over the long term. European nations outside of the EU have higher living standards than we do so there is nothing to fear.

There is only one geopolitically significant European country outside the EU - Russia. A future ally?

Edit: I was ignoring Ukraine but the point stands.

No? We're in NATO and the primary defence partner of the US and France and we have a permanent UN Security Council seat. Leaving the EU has nothing to do with Russia. This is truly desperate stuff.

TheScreamingEagles

Richard_Tyndall said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MaxPB said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MaxPB said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

It's the economy. I'm shocked by that.

Like finding out there's gambling going on Rick's cafe.

Again, I'll go back to this one last time before I do some actual work.

How does the remain side square the circle of the British public being sold an economic vision of the EU with the reality of a political union? Let's say that remain wins, it's 55-45 in favour. Our position in the EU hasn't changed, we're still carping from the sidelines, and our position is being continually marginalised as we're not in the governing body of the EUParl and we're not in the EMU and don't have any kind of say over EMU monetary policy, the current driving force of EU economic growth.

I've come to the conclusion that the only way to ensure British prosperity is to leave or go all in, the status quo is the worst of both worlds, we don't get to govern ourselves fully and we are marginalised in the EU. At least the federalists are open and honest about their arguments, they believe that the UK couldn't survive alone in the world and wish to hitch us to the EU State. There aren't many of them for obvious reasons, but I can't help but agree with them in the event of a remain vote. It will be put up or shut up time if we vote to remain.

I'm with Robert, we'll vote Remain in June and vote to Leave within a decade.

Then why not just do it now? The cost of separation will be much higher 10 years from now. The party will survive, Osborne is going to do more damage to the British economy than Leave ever could. His policies are now coming home to roost, the current account deficit is alarmingly high, the government deficit still hasn't been closed, the indicators are all negative and we're about to move into a higher inflationary period based on current oil prices, while wage growth isn't exactly stellar.

I don't want to be a part of the superstate any more than you do, but a vote to remain sets us down that path, hoping for a future referendum, one which may never arrive, when we have one now seems a bit crazy given all that is at stake.

Because sometimes it is wise to get out of the car at a good place, not whilst you're in the fast lane of the M62

That good place being as we hurtle over a cliff?

Cars are pretty safe these days. Mind you do wonder if car safety tests are rigged like emission tests.

richardDodd

SO Yes..the markets..

Scott_P

taffys said:

What, I wonder, will be offered in 2020.

Corbyn

tyson

MikeK said:

I look on the latest polls with a jaundiced eye. The following is true and this all happened to me this morning.

I was on packed bus in Hackney going to Dalston where I was going to visit the local library. The woman next to me said, without any prompting, and who I didn't know from Eve, that she couldn't stand what was happening in Britain. I asked her why, and she said all these immigrants coming in have altered the country. I then asked what she was voting in the referendum. She said, leave. She also confirmed that all of her friends were going to vote leave too.

She also said that she was a Labour supporter and is a bit bemused by the party supporting remain.

Forget the polls...... MikeK sat next to someone on the bus who told him the result

TheScreamingEagles

SouthamObserver said:

Does anyone get excited by any of these polls?

Me and Alastair were this morning.

He had written a piece/bet before the interesting tweet from Ben Page was posted.

GIN1138

Is Boris/Farage the start of the long anticipated formal split on the Tory Party? How many MP's would Boris and Gove take with them if they left the Conservatives for UKIP (or perhaps in a few months another named Party?)

Cameron and Osborne have basically said people who want OUT are supporters of Putin and ISIS so their views are well known... Hard to see Leavers can stay in a Party that has such contempt for them?

TOPPING

Wanderer said:

MaxPB said:

On the economy question, the answer to me is simple. We'll live. We may be slightly worse or better off if we leave, but at the end of the day, "we'll survive". This nation has existed for over a thousand years, leaving the EU isn't going to change that or really effect our prosperity over the long term. European nations outside of the EU have higher living standards than we do so there is nothing to fear.

I think Leave must (and probably can) do better than "we'll survive". People would like to do better than just continue to exist. We (collectively) survived the Black Death but wouldn't care to repeat it.

Why not explain how Brexit is definitely going to make people richer?

Because Remain is supposed to appeal to a higher nobility and altruism than silly old pounds shillings and pence.

If only the voters would stop being so disappointing.

MikeK

https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/732916833989369857
Wherefore art thou Remain?

MaxPB

Wanderer said:

MaxPB said:

On the economy question, the answer to me is simple. We'll live. We may be slightly worse or better off if we leave, but at the end of the day, "we'll survive". This nation has existed for over a thousand years, leaving the EU isn't going to change that or really effect our prosperity over the long term. European nations outside of the EU have higher living standards than we do so there is nothing to fear.

I think Leave must (and probably can) do better than "we'll survive". People would like to do better than just continue to exist. We (collectively) survived the Black Death but wouldn't care to repeat it.

Why not explain how Brexit is definitely going to make people richer?

Well do the same for remain then. I don't think Brexit will make us richer or poorer, neither will remain tbh. The economic case for both is pretty marginal. Our exports to the EU are decreasing anyway, the case will become even more marginal in the future.

Tykejohnno

@TSE,you think we will get another chance to vote on the EU in the next ten years,more like 40 years,please stop the wind up.

By then we should have enough EU nationals living here who will have the say we never leave.

runnymede

Wanderer said:

MaxPB said:

On the economy question, the answer to me is simple. We'll live. We may be slightly worse or better off if we leave, but at the end of the day, "we'll survive". This nation has existed for over a thousand years, leaving the EU isn't going to change that or really effect our prosperity over the long term. European nations outside of the EU have higher living standards than we do so there is nothing to fear.

I think Leave must (and probably can) do better than "we'll survive". People would like to do better than just continue to exist. We (collectively) survived the Black Death but wouldn't care to repeat it.

Why not explain how Brexit is definitely going to make people richer?

Yes, a good idea and the raw material is there to do that - just look at the evidence of how various classes of goods are more expensive in the EU than in the US and other lower-cost suppliers.

The price gaps are pretty large for some categories - note this isn't just food and textiles, where the situation is well-known, but manufactured products as well.

felix

Casino_Royale said:

felix said:

Casino_Royale said:

MaxPB said:

FPT:

I thought MalcolmG put it well when he said we're too scared of losing a fiver.

Most people (clearly) don't care about sovereignty or long-term benefits. They just care if they will be able to take that mini-break next month.

I think Leave will only win when (a) the EU goes totally ratshit and hits us majorly and directly in our pockets (b) a Tory PM advocates Leave with his/her Government (c) there is a ready made exit deal on the table to vote for.

There would be virtually no Project Fear the other way because all the apparatus of the establishment would be working the other way.

In my experience the people generally get it right. Blaming the voters for being shallow, etc shows a contempt for democracy.

Where have I shown any contempt for democracy? I've said I'll give up on politics if that is the result.

Disagreeing with the voters verdict doesn't mean you have contempt for democracy - or, to put it another way, if you are on the losing side it doesn't mean you are obliged to agree with the winner.

Contempt for democracy means refusing to accept the verdict, and what it means does, and attempting to overturn it by extrademocratic means.

I have not said I would do that, and nor would I ever do that.

Your reference to people only caring about mini-breaks revealed the underlying attitude I fear. I get it, you're hurting but frankly the site is overwhelmed by so much whinging without a vote yet cast. If Leave loses they should look to themselves - leave the voters alone.

MikeK

tyson said:

MikeK said:

I look on the latest polls with a jaundiced eye. The following is true and this all happened to me this morning.

I was on packed bus in Hackney going to Dalston where I was going to visit the local library. The woman next to me said, without any prompting, and who I didn't know from Eve, that she couldn't stand what was happening in Britain. I asked her why, and she said all these immigrants coming in have altered the country. I then asked what she was voting in the referendum. She said, leave. She also confirmed that all of her friends were going to vote leave too.

She also said that she was a Labour supporter and is a bit bemused by the party supporting remain.

Forget the polls...... MikeK sat next to someone on the bus who told him the result

No need to big it up, @tyson

GIN1138

taffys said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MaxPB said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

It's the economy. I'm shocked by that.

Like finding out there's gambling going on Rick's cafe.

Again, I'll go back to this one last time before I do some actual work.

How does the remain side square the circle of the British public being sold an economic vision of the EU with the reality of a political union? Let's say that remain wins, it's 55-45 in favour. Our position in the EU hasn't changed, we're still carping from the sidelines, and our position is being continually marginalised as we're not in the governing body of the EUParl and we're not in the EMU and don't have any kind of say over EMU monetary policy, the current driving force of EU economic growth.

I've come to the conclusion that the only way to ensure British prosperity is to leave or go all in, the status quo is the worst of both worlds, we don't get to govern ourselves fully and we are marginalised in the EU. At least the federalists are open and honest about their arguments, they believe that the UK couldn't survive alone in the world and wish to hitch us to the EU State. There aren't many of them for obvious reasons, but I can't help but agree with them in the event of a remain vote. It will be put up or shut up time if we vote to remain.

I'm with Robert, we'll vote Remain in June and vote to Leave within a decade.

I don't think I could go through all this again.

In 2015, David Cameron offered a referendum to keep the tory kipper tendency on board.

What, I wonder, will be offered in 2020. Free Union Jack cushion covers?

Cameron doesn't care about 2020. He'll be off living a life of fabulous wealth and luxury with all the wreckage of these past few weeks in his wake...

felix

ThreeQuidder said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

I note the ORB poll with a 15% brexit lead sampled a whopping 800 people. The IPSOS/Mori 1002.

The BES poll which we await a breathless article on sampled a tiny sample of er... 22,000 and had Leave ahead 43% to 40.5%

Hmm

Anyone complaining about the lack of a BES thread, can they also post a link to the detailed data please, which includes the methodology and full breakdown. Ta.

Some acknowledgement that it even exists would be a start. Of course, since all the regulars OTL are devout Remainians, we don't expect it.

It has been mentioned several times although notably Leavers are only interested in quoting the part which gives them a tiny lead - not the basic poll which has Remain ahead.

MTimT

Casino_Royale said:

Where have I shown any contempt for democracy? I've said I'll give up on politics if that is the result.

Disagreeing with the voters verdict doesn't mean you have contempt for democracy - or, to put it another way, if you are on the losing side it doesn't mean you are obliged to agree with the winner.

Contempt for democracy means refusing to accept the verdict, and what it means does, and attempting to overturn it by extrademocratic means.

I have not said I would do that, and nor would I ever do that.

Indeed, it reminds me a conversation I had with a senior PLO bod back in the day. They had just held their first elections on a policy plank inimical to the West's interests and won, and then were shocked that the West did not go along with the policies on which they were democratically elected, essentially accusing us of hypocrisy for demanding the PLO become more democratic and then opposing its democratically-expressed will.

I pointed out that that was a misunderstanding of democracy. We respected that the new leadership had been democratically elected, but stated that we were under no obligation to agree with any of its policies, and the Palestinian electorate would, like any other electorate, have to live with the consequences of their vote.