On the economy question, the answer to me is simple. We'll live. We may be slightly worse or better off if we leave, but at the end of the day, "we'll survive". This nation has existed for over a thousand years, leaving the EU isn't going to change that or really effect our prosperity over the long term. European nations outside of the EU have higher living standards than we do so there is nothing to fear.
I think Leave must (and probably can) do better than "we'll survive". People would like to do better than just continue to exist. We (collectively) survived the Black Death but wouldn't care to repeat it.
Why not explain how Brexit is definitely going to make people richer?
Well do the same for remain then. I don't think Brexit will make us richer or poorer, neither will remain tbh. The economic case for both is pretty marginal. Our exports to the EU are decreasing anyway, the case will become even more marginal in the future.
Remain isn't trying persuade people to vote against the status quo (I know Leavers say it is but that's not how people will see it). If you want to make a change you probably need to offer a more inviting prospectus than "we'll survive".
Or maybe not, if you can make the subject immigration and not the economy.
I note the ORB poll with a 15% brexit lead sampled a whopping 800 people. The IPSOS/Mori 1002.
The BES poll which we await a breathless article on sampled a tiny sample of er... 22,000 and had Leave ahead 43% to 40.5%
Hmm
Anyone complaining about the lack of a BES thread, can they also post a link to the detailed data please, which includes the methodology and full breakdown. Ta.
It might just have come across as more objective if something like the above, noting the existence of the BES one but saying no data is yet available had been in the main article.
Omitting any mention of BES places the site in danger of looking like remain shills when the whole point of the site is to give reasonably objective inveatment advice for turf accountant investments.
This is a betting site, a thread based on not knowing all the info can skew things.
We're not even sure if it is GB/UK wide or England only poll.
Between 1,000 and 22,000 people there is almost no improvement in MoE.
Like finding out there's gambling going on Rick's cafe.
Again, I'll go back to this one last time before I do some actual work.
How does the remain side square the circle of the British public being sold an economic vision of the EU with the reality of a political union? Let's say that remain wins, it's 55-45 in favour. Our position in the EU hasn't changed, we're still carping from the sidelines, and our position is being continually marginalised as we're not in the governing body of the EUParl and we're not in the EMU and don't have any kind of say over EMU monetary policy, the current driving force of EU economic growth.
I've come to the conclusion that the only way to ensure British prosperity is to leave or go all in, the status quo is the worst of both worlds, we don't get to govern ourselves fully and we are marginalised in the EU. At least the federalists are open and honest about their arguments, they believe that the UK couldn't survive alone in the world and wish to hitch us to the EU State. There aren't many of them for obvious reasons, but I can't help but agree with them in the event of a remain vote. It will be put up or shut up time if we vote to remain.
I'm with Robert, we'll vote Remain in June and vote to Leave within a decade.
Then why not just do it now? The cost of separation will be much higher 10 years from now. The party will survive, Osborne is going to do more damage to the British economy than Leave ever could. His policies are now coming home to roost, the current account deficit is alarmingly high, the government deficit still hasn't been closed, the indicators are all negative and we're about to move into a higher inflationary period based on current oil prices, while wage growth isn't exactly stellar.
I don't want to be a part of the superstate any more than you do, but a vote to remain sets us down that path, hoping for a future referendum, one which may never arrive, when we have one now seems a bit crazy given all that is at stake.
Because sometimes it is wise to get out of the car at a good place, not whilst you're in the fast lane of the M62
If you're on the Highway to Hull you get out as soon as you can, as the danger's only going to get worse.
@TSE,you think we will get another chance to vote on the EU in the next ten years,more like 40 years,please stop the wind up.
By then we should have enough EU nationals living here who will have the say we never leave.
Alternatively the EU might evolve over the next 10 years into something more acceptable to the moderate mainstream majority in this country, allowing us to get the option most of us probably want but getting there whilst being on the inside of the tent having helped to shape it. Masters of our destiny - I like that.
Leave in the next 2 years and we won't get that opportunity.
"Stay in - for now" - the motto of the Reluctant Remainer!
On the economy question, the answer to me is simple. We'll live. We may be slightly worse or better off if we leave, but at the end of the day, "we'll survive". This nation has existed for over a thousand years, leaving the EU isn't going to change that or really effect our prosperity over the long term. European nations outside of the EU have higher living standards than we do so there is nothing to fear.
I think Leave must (and probably can) do better than "we'll survive". People would like to do better than just continue to exist. We (collectively) survived the Black Death but wouldn't care to repeat it.
Why not explain how Brexit is definitely going to make people richer?
Well do the same for remain then. I don't think Brexit will make us richer or poorer, neither will remain tbh. The economic case for both is pretty marginal. Our exports to the EU are decreasing anyway, the case will become even more marginal in the future.
Remain isn't trying persuade people to vote against the status quo (I know Leavers say it is but that's not how people will see it). If you want to make a change you probably need to offer a more inviting prospectus than "we'll survive".
Or maybe not, if you can make the subject immigration and not the economy.
Cameron doesn't care about 2020. He'll be off living a life of fabulous wealth and luxury with all the wreckage of these past few weeks in his wake...
For me the lesson of this referendum is if you want independence from Europe, if it means that much to you, you better vote UKIP. It will never be delivered by the main parties.
I look on the latest polls with a jaundiced eye. The following is true and this all happened to me this morning.
I was on packed bus in Hackney going to Dalston where I was going to visit the local library. The woman next to me said, without any prompting, and who I didn't know from Eve, that she couldn't stand what was happening in Britain. I asked her why, and she said all these immigrants coming in have altered the country. I then asked what she was voting in the referendum. She said, leave. She also confirmed that all of her friends were going to vote leave too.
She also said that she was a Labour supporter and is a bit bemused by the party supporting remain.
Forget the polls...... MikeK sat next to someone on the bus who told him the result
It was the same guy who told him about the 100 + Kipper MPs.
Is Boris/Farage the start of the long anticipated formal split on the Tory Party? How many MP's would Boris and Gove take with them if they left the Conservatives for UKIP (or perhaps in a few months another named Party?)
Cameron and Osborne have basically said people who want OUT are supporters of Putin and ISIS so their views are well known... Hard to see Leavers can stay in a Party that has such contempt for them?
Boris is thick enough and desperate enough but Gove has way more sense than that. He is an ally of George Osborne. It's quite amusing that this is known and yet not understood.
@TSE,you think we will get another chance to vote on the EU in the next ten years,more like 40 years,please stop the wind up.
By then we should have enough EU nationals living here who will have the say we never leave.
Alternatively the EU might evolve over the next 10 years into something more acceptable to the moderate mainstream majority in this country, allowing us to get the option most of us probably want but getting there whilst being on the inside of the tent having helped to shape it. Masters of our destiny - I like that.
Leave in the next 2 years and we won't get that opportunity.
"Stay in - for now" - the motto of the Reluctant Remainer!
Is Boris/Farage the start of the long anticipated formal split on the Tory Party? How many MP's would Boris and Gove take with them if they left the Conservatives for UKIP (or perhaps in a few months another named Party?)
Cameron and Osborne have basically said people who want OUT are supporters of Putin and ISIS so their views are well known... Hard to see Leavers can stay in a Party that has such contempt for them?
Boris is thick enough and desperate enough but Gove has way more sense than that. He is an ally of George Osborne. It's quite amusing that this is known and yet not understood.
I guess there's a slight possibility that Boris ends up as the next leader of UKIP. It's another big personality job.
@TSE,you think we will get another chance to vote on the EU in the next ten years,more like 40 years,please stop the wind up.
By then we should have enough EU nationals living here who will have the say we never leave.
Alternatively the EU might evolve over the next 10 years into something more acceptable to the moderate mainstream majority in this country, allowing us to get the option most of us probably want but getting there whilst being on the inside of the tent having helped to shape it. Masters of our destiny - I like that.
Leave in the next 2 years and we won't get that opportunity.
"Stay in - for now" - the motto of the Reluctant Remainer!
If you weren't a regular poster, one who has been on here for quite a few years, I'd accuse you of trolling.
"Evolve over the next 10 years into something more acceptable"
LOL
Clearly 40 years of the opposite haven't taught you the lesson.
@TSE,you think we will get another chance to vote on the EU in the next ten years,more like 40 years,please stop the wind up.
By then we should have enough EU nationals living here who will have the say we never leave.
Alternatively the EU might evolve over the next 10 years into something more acceptable to the moderate mainstream majority in this country, allowing us to get the option most of us probably want but getting there whilst being on the inside of the tent having helped to shape it. Masters of our destiny - I like that.
Leave in the next 2 years and we won't get that opportunity.
"Stay in - for now" - the motto of the Reluctant Remainer!
'Alternatively the EU might evolve over the next 10 years into something more acceptable to the moderate mainstream majority in this country'
Oh please you don't really believe that, do you?
The only way that will happen is if there is a massive change in attitude in the UK towards the EU and its openly expressed goal of creating a United States of Europe with the Eurozone as its 'pioneer' core.
There is no chance whatever of the EU reverting back to what it was in the 1970s or early 1980s - almost no-one in our EU neighbours who matters has the slightest interest in something like that. Nor will they.
Is Boris/Farage the start of the long anticipated formal split on the Tory Party? How many MP's would Boris and Gove take with them if they left the Conservatives for UKIP (or perhaps in a few months another named Party?)
Cameron and Osborne have basically said people who want OUT are supporters of Putin and ISIS so their views are well known... Hard to see Leavers can stay in a Party that has such contempt for them?
Boris is thick enough and desperate enough but Gove has way more sense than that. He is an ally of George Osborne. It's quite amusing that this is known and yet not understood.
I thought they'd all fallen out behind the scenes (well the wives anyway) Who knows what relations with Cameron, Osborne and Gove are now like.
Boris is thick enough and desperate enough but Gove has way more sense than that. He is an ally of George Osborne. It's quite amusing that this is known and yet not understood.
That is a potentially optimum result. If the closet kippers on the Tory backbenches actually had the courage of their convictions instead of running a false flag operation it would be better for all concerned
Like finding out there's gambling going on Rick's cafe.
Again, I'll go back to this one last time before I do some actual work.
How does the remain side square the circle of the British public being sold an economic vision of the EU with the reality of a political union? Let's say that remain wins, it's 55-45 in favour. Our position in the EU hasn't changed, we're still carping from the sidelines, and our position is being continually marginalised as we're not in the governing body of the EUParl and we're not in the EMU and don't have any kind of say over EMU monetary policy, the current driving force of EU economic growth.
I've come to the conclusion that the only way to ensure British prosperity is to leave or go all in, the status quo is the worst of both worlds, we don't get to govern ourselves fully and we are marginalised in the EU. At least the federalists are open and honest about their arguments, they believe that the UK couldn't survive alone in the world and wish to hitch us to the EU State. There aren't many of them for obvious reasons, but I can't help but agree with them in the event of a remain vote. It will be put up or shut up time if we vote to remain.
I'm with Robert, we'll vote Remain in June and vote to Leave within a decade.
I don't think I could go through all this again.
In 2015, David Cameron offered a referendum to keep the tory kipper tendency on board.
What, I wonder, will be offered in 2020. Free Union Jack cushion covers?
Cameron doesn't care about 2020. He'll be off living a life of fabulous wealth and luxury with all the wreckage of these past few weeks in his wake...
He'll get a job with Goldmans, or a place on the IMF/OECD.
Is Boris/Farage the start of the long anticipated formal split on the Tory Party? How many MP's would Boris and Gove take with them if they left the Conservatives for UKIP (or perhaps in a few months another named Party?)
Cameron and Osborne have basically said people who want OUT are supporters of Putin and ISIS so their views are well known... Hard to see Leavers can stay in a Party that has such contempt for them?
Boris is thick enough and desperate enough but Gove has way more sense than that. He is an ally of George Osborne. It's quite amusing that this is known and yet not understood.
I thought they'd all fallen out behind the scenes (well the wives anyway) Who knows what relations with Cameron, Osborne and Gove are now like.
That's old news - Boris is the only one on the outside looking in.
However, is there any reason to believe that those who were more difficult to contact were distinctive in the way in which they voted? It seems that there is. Table 10 shows the distribution of reported vote in the general election broken down by the number of calls that had to be made before an interview was conducted. We can see immediately that those who were the most accessible for interview, that is they were interviewed the first time an interviewer called, were markedly more Labour and less Conservative in their sympathies than were even those who were interviewed on the second call, let alone those who were only interviewed after between three and six calls. Only amongst those who were the very hardest of all to reach (a group that as defined in Table 10 consists of less than one in ten of all those who voted and which consists disproportionately of younger voters) was the pattern reversed.
The relatively high level of support for Labour amongst those who were interviewed first time around cannot obviously be accounted for by the social character of these respondents. As we have already noted, they contain an above average proportion of older people, a group that in general was relatively unsympathetic to Labour in the election. True, those interviewed on the first call were rather more likely to be engaged in a routine or semi-routine (working class) occupation (35% of first time respondents fall into this category as compared with 30% in the sample as a whole), but even if we weight these respondents such that their class profile matches that of the sample as a whole, we still obtain a five point Labour lead.
In short, those who were most easily interviewed by BSA interviewers appear to have been more likely to support Labour and less likely to support the Conservatives to a degree that cannot be accounted for by the social profile of these respondents. If indeed this group in any way mimics the kind of person who was most likely to respond to the polls, then we can begin to understand why the polls might have overestimated Labour’s strength.
(I don't think politicians are lying duplicitous b*st*rds, btw, but I do think they try to square a lot of circles.)
For my sins, I grew up around politicians and still spend quite a bit of time with them.
I can confirm that they are, actually, lying duplicitous b*st*rds
(They are also charming, amusing, and a lot of fun to be with. Case in point, I had a very nice chat with Frances Osborne on Monday evening about women who have loved or lusted throughout history. While watching her husband dance. Badly.)
Like finding out there's gambling going on Rick's cafe.
Again, I'll go back to this one last time before I do some actual work.
How does the remain side square the circle of the British public being sold an economic vision of the EU with the reality of a political union? Let's say that remain wins, it's 55-45 in favour. Our position in the EU hasn't changed, we're still carping from the sidelines, and our position is being continually marginalised as we're not in the governing body of the EUParl and we're not in the EMU and don't have any kind of say over EMU monetary policy, the current driving force of EU economic growth.
I've come to the conclusion that the only way to ensure British prosperity is to leave or go all in, the status quo is the worst of both worlds, we don't get to govern ourselves fully and we are marginalised in the EU. At least the federalists are open and honest about their arguments, they believe that the UK couldn't survive alone in the world and wish to hitch us to the EU State. There aren't many of them for obvious reasons, but I can't help but agree with them in the event of a remain vote. It will be put up or shut up time if we vote to remain.
I'm with Robert, we'll vote Remain in June and vote to Leave within a decade.
I don't think I could go through all this again.
In 2015, David Cameron offered a referendum to keep the tory kipper tendency on board.
What, I wonder, will be offered in 2020. Free Union Jack cushion covers?
Cameron doesn't care about 2020. He'll be off living a life of fabulous wealth and luxury with all the wreckage of these past few weeks in his wake...
He'll get a job with Goldmans, or a place on the IMF/OECD.
That's how it works.
I think Osborne is angling to replace Lagarde at the IMF.
@TSE,you think we will get another chance to vote on the EU in the next ten years,more like 40 years,please stop the wind up.
By then we should have enough EU nationals living here who will have the say we never leave.
Alternatively the EU might evolve over the next 10 years into something more acceptable to the moderate mainstream majority in this country, allowing us to get the option most of us probably want but getting there whilst being on the inside of the tent having helped to shape it. Masters of our destiny - I like that.
Leave in the next 2 years and we won't get that opportunity.
"Stay in - for now" - the motto of the Reluctant Remainer!
Freedom of movement will never be on the table so your post is just bull,your living in cloud cuckoo land.
I thought MalcolmG put it well when he said we're too scared of losing a fiver.
Most people (clearly) don't care about sovereignty or long-term benefits. They just care if they will be able to take that mini-break next month.
I think Leave will only win when (a) the EU goes totally ratshit and hits us majorly and directly in our pockets (b) a Tory PM advocates Leave with his/her Government (c) there is a ready made exit deal on the table to vote for.
There would be virtually no Project Fear the other way because all the apparatus of the establishment would be working the other way.
In my experience the people generally get it right. Blaming the voters for being shallow, etc shows a contempt for democracy.
Where have I shown any contempt for democracy? I've said I'll give up on politics if that is the result.
Disagreeing with the voters verdict doesn't mean you have contempt for democracy - or, to put it another way, if you are on the losing side it doesn't mean you are obliged to agree with the winner.
Contempt for democracy means refusing to accept the verdict, and what it means does, and attempting to overturn it by extrademocratic means.
I have not said I would do that, and nor would I ever do that.
Your reference to people only caring about mini-breaks revealed the underlying attitude I fear. I get it, you're hurting but frankly the site is overwhelmed by so much whinging without a vote yet cast. If Leave loses they should look to themselves - leave the voters alone.
I have said I will give up on politics if that is the verdict, and by definition leave the voters to it.
I can't make it any clearer for you.
Quite frankly, I couldn't care less what you think of me.
Is Boris/Farage the start of the long anticipated formal split on the Tory Party? How many MP's would Boris and Gove take with them if they left the Conservatives for UKIP (or perhaps in a few months another named Party?)
Cameron and Osborne have basically said people who want OUT are supporters of Putin and ISIS so their views are well known... Hard to see Leavers can stay in a Party that has such contempt for them?
That won't happen. If Remain wins the thought will be: if Boris, Farage and UKIP can't even persuade the British public on the EU referendum, they sure as hell will never form a government; they'll be damaged goods and everyone will move on. If Leave wins Boris will stay in the Tories to collect the spoils - triumphant in the knowledge that his reputation as the great Tory draw and persuader has been cemented.
On the economy question, the answer to me is simple. We'll live. We may be slightly worse or better off if we leave, but at the end of the day, "we'll survive". This nation has existed for over a thousand years, leaving the EU isn't going to change that or really effect our prosperity over the long term. European nations outside of the EU have higher living standards than we do so there is nothing to fear.
There is only one geopolitically significant European country outside the EU - Russia. A future ally?
Edit: I was ignoring Ukraine but the point stands.
No? We're in NATO and the primary defence partner of the US and France and we have a permanent UN Security Council seat. Leaving the EU has nothing to do with Russia. This is truly desperate stuff.
If we're not willing to ask fundamental questions about our place in the world then what's the point of leaving?
I note the ORB poll with a 15% brexit lead sampled a whopping 800 people. The IPSOS/Mori 1002.
The BES poll which we await a breathless article on sampled a tiny sample of er... 22,000 and had Leave ahead 43% to 40.5%
Hmm
Anyone complaining about the lack of a BES thread, can they also post a link to the detailed data please, which includes the methodology and full breakdown. Ta.
Some acknowledgement that it even exists would be a start. Of course, since all the regulars OTL are devout Remainians, we don't expect it.
It has been mentioned several times although notably Leavers are only interested in quoting the part which gives them a tiny lead - not the basic poll which has Remain ahead.
Not so. It was first mentioned by TSE yesterday and I have since agreed he and Mike are quite right not to publish until we have the details. Please don't misrepresent people.
I thought MalcolmG put it well when he said we're too scared of losing a fiver.
Most people (clearly) don't care about sovereignty or long-term benefits. They just care if they will be able to take that mini-break next month.
I think Leave will only win when (a) the EU goes totally ratshit and hits us majorly and directly in our pockets (b) a Tory PM advocates Leave with his/her Government (c) there is a ready made exit deal on the table to vote for.
There would be virtually no Project Fear the other way because all the apparatus of the establishment would be working the other way.
In my experience the people generally get it right. Blaming the voters for being shallow, etc shows a contempt for democracy.
Where have I shown any contempt for democracy? I've said I'll give up on politics if that is the result.
Disagreeing with the voters verdict doesn't mean you have contempt for democracy - or, to put it another way, if you are on the losing side it doesn't mean you are obliged to agree with the winner.
Contempt for democracy means refusing to accept the verdict, and what it means does, and attempting to overturn it by extrademocratic means.
I have not said I would do that, and nor would I ever do that.
Your reference to people only caring about mini-breaks revealed the underlying attitude I fear. I get it, you're hurting but frankly the site is overwhelmed by so much whinging without a vote yet cast. If Leave loses they should look to themselves - leave the voters alone.
I have said I will give up on politics if that is the verdict, and by definition leave the voters to it.
I can't make it any clearer for you.
Quite frankly, I couldn't care less what you think of me.
Lol - nor I you. Doesn't alter what you wrote - and the attitude it revealed. Have a nice retirement.
Like finding out there's gambling going on Rick's cafe.
Again, I'll go back to this one last time before I do some actual work.
How does the remain side square the circle of the British public being sold an economic vision of the EU with the reality of a political union? Let's say that remain wins, it's 55-45 in favour. Our position in the EU hasn't changed, we're still carping from the sidelines, and our position is being continually marginalised as we're not in the governing body of the EUParl and we're not in the EMU and don't have any kind of say over EMU monetary policy, the current driving force of EU economic growth.
I've come to the conclusion that the only way to ensure British prosperity is to leave or go all in, the status quo is the worst of both worlds, we don't get to govern ourselves fully and we are marginalised in the EU. At least the federalists are open and honest about their arguments, they believe that the UK couldn't survive alone in the world and wish to hitch us to the EU State. There aren't many of them for obvious reasons, but I can't help but agree with them in the event of a remain vote. It will be put up or shut up time if we vote to remain.
I'm with Robert, we'll vote Remain in June and vote to Leave within a decade.
I don't think I could go through all this again.
In 2015, David Cameron offered a referendum to keep the tory kipper tendency on board.
What, I wonder, will be offered in 2020. Free Union Jack cushion covers?
Cameron doesn't care about 2020. He'll be off living a life of fabulous wealth and luxury with all the wreckage of these past few weeks in his wake...
He'll get a job with Goldmans, or a place on the IMF/OECD.
That's how it works.
Why? He's already loaded. I imagine he'll spend a lot of time in the countryside.
On the economy question, the answer to me is simple. We'll live. We may be slightly worse or better off if we leave, but at the end of the day, "we'll survive". This nation has existed for over a thousand years, leaving the EU isn't going to change that or really effect our prosperity over the long term. European nations outside of the EU have higher living standards than we do so there is nothing to fear.
There is only one geopolitically significant European country outside the EU - Russia. A future ally?
Edit: I was ignoring Ukraine but the point stands.
No? We're in NATO and the primary defence partner of the US and France and we have a permanent UN Security Council seat. Leaving the EU has nothing to do with Russia. This is truly desperate stuff.
If we're not willing to ask fundamental questions about our place in the world then what's the point of leaving?
I note the ORB poll with a 15% brexit lead sampled a whopping 800 people. The IPSOS/Mori 1002.
The BES poll which we await a breathless article on sampled a tiny sample of er... 22,000 and had Leave ahead 43% to 40.5%
Hmm
Anyone complaining about the lack of a BES thread, can they also post a link to the detailed data please, which includes the methodology and full breakdown. Ta.
Thank you TSE.
What was the wording of the BES question? Was it an online poll? When was the fieldwork? If anybody has got that data then please let me know.
If people don't like the way the site is run then they don't have to come here.
I note the ORB poll with a 15% brexit lead sampled a whopping 800 people. The IPSOS/Mori 1002.
The BES poll which we await a breathless article on sampled a tiny sample of er... 22,000 and had Leave ahead 43% to 40.5%
Hmm
Anyone complaining about the lack of a BES thread, can they also post a link to the detailed data please, which includes the methodology and full breakdown. Ta.
Some acknowledgement that it even exists would be a start. Of course, since all the regulars OTL are devout Remainians, we don't expect it.
It has been mentioned several times although notably Leavers are only interested in quoting the part which gives them a tiny lead - not the basic poll which has Remain ahead.
Not so. It was first mentioned by TSE yesterday and I have since agreed he and Mike are quite right not to publish until we have the details. Please don't misrepresent people.
You obviously missed Tissue's post earlier today. Please don't tell me what to do.
Kevin Alcock @MSmithsonPB@hocwatch This one has Tories backing remain by a 28% margin. I'd be astonished if that was correct.
I've just gone through the numbers. They are way out of line with other polls.
65+ Leave lead of 7% 75+ Leave lead of only 3% C1 58/33 Remain lead (25%) C2s tied 43/43 C2DE tied 45/45
Cons 60/34 Remain lead (26%)
If that is correct then, yes, we will very probably vote to Remain by 60/40. But Ipsos would be having to be doing something very right that everyone else is doing very wrong.
I thought MalcolmG put it well when he said we're too scared of losing a fiver.
Most people (clearly) don't care about sovereignty or long-term benefits. They just care if they will be able to take that mini-break next month.
I think Leave will only win when (a) the EU goes totally ratshit and hits us majorly and directly in our pockets (b) a Tory PM advocates Leave with his/her Government (c) there is a ready made exit deal on the table to vote for.
There would be virtually no Project Fear the other way because all the apparatus of the establishment would be working the other way.
In my experience the people generally get it right. Blaming the voters for being shallow, etc shows a contempt for democracy.
Where have I shown any contempt for democracy? I've said I'll give up on politics if that is the result.
Disagreeing with the voters verdict doesn't mean you have contempt for democracy - or, to put it another way, if you are on the losing side it doesn't mean you are obliged to agree with the winner.
Contempt for democracy means refusing to accept the verdict, and what it means does, and attempting to overturn it by extrademocratic means.
I have not said I would do that, and nor would I ever do that.
Your reference to people only caring about mini-breaks revealed the underlying attitude I fear. I get it, you're hurting but frankly the site is overwhelmed by so much whinging without a vote yet cast. If Leave loses they should look to themselves - leave the voters alone.
I have said I will give up on politics if that is the verdict, and by definition leave the voters to it.
I can't make it any clearer for you.
Quite frankly, I couldn't care less what you think of me.
Lol - nor I you. Doesn't alter what you wrote - and the attitude it revealed. Have a nice retirement.
No, there's no attitude. Just analysis. You just don't like it or agree with it.
But you are already at the very bottom of my list of posters I respect on here, so that's no surprise.
Kevin Alcock @MSmithsonPB@hocwatch This one has Tories backing remain by a 28% margin. I'd be astonished if that was correct.
I've just gone through the numbers. They are way out of line with other polls.
65+ Leave lead of 7% 75+ Leave lead of only 3% C1 58/33 Remain lead (25%) C2s tied 43/43 C2DE tied 45/45
Cons 60/34 Remain lead (26%)
If that is correct then, yes, we will very probably vote to Remain by 60/40. But Ipsos would be having to be doing something very right that everyone else is doing very wrong.
I note the ORB poll with a 15% brexit lead sampled a whopping 800 people. The IPSOS/Mori 1002.
The BES poll which we await a breathless article on sampled a tiny sample of er... 22,000 and had Leave ahead 43% to 40.5%
Hmm
Anyone complaining about the lack of a BES thread, can they also post a link to the detailed data please, which includes the methodology and full breakdown. Ta.
Thank you TSE.
What was the wording of the BES question? Was it an online poll? When was the fieldwork? If anybody has got that data then please let me know.
If people don't like the way the site is run then they don't have to come here.
The only information I could glean was that polling ended on 4th May.
Like finding out there's gambling going on Rick's cafe.
Again, I'll go back to this one last time before I do some actual work.
How does the remain side square the circle of the British public being sold an economic vision of the EU with the reality of a political union? Let's say that remain wins, it's 55-45 in favour. Our position in the EU hasn't changed, we're still carping from the sidelines, and our position is being continually marginalised as we're not in the governing body of the EUParl and we're not in the EMU and don't have any kind of say over EMU monetary policy, the current driving force of EU economic growth.
I've come to the conclusion that the only way to ensure British prosperity is to leave or go all in, the status quo is the worst of both worlds, we don't get to govern ourselves fully and we are marginalised in the EU. At least the federalists are open and honest about their arguments, they believe that the UK couldn't survive alone in the world and wish to hitch us to the EU State. There aren't many of them for obvious reasons, but I can't help but agree with them in the event of a remain vote. It will be put up or shut up time if we vote to remain.
I'm with Robert, we'll vote Remain in June and vote to Leave within a decade.
I don't think I could go through all this again.
In 2015, David Cameron offered a referendum to keep the tory kipper tendency on board.
What, I wonder, will be offered in 2020. Free Union Jack cushion covers?
Cameron doesn't care about 2020. He'll be off living a life of fabulous wealth and luxury with all the wreckage of these past few weeks in his wake...
He'll get a job with Goldmans, or a place on the IMF/OECD.
That's how it works.
Why? He's already loaded. I imagine he'll spend a lot of time in the countryside.
Oh, at his tender young age I think he'll take something. Even if it's part time.
Like finding out there's gambling going on Rick's cafe.
Again, I'll go back to this one last time before I do some actual work.
How does the remain side square the circle of the British public being sold an economic vision of the EU with the reality of a political union? Let's say that remain wins, it's 55-45 in favour. Our position in the EU hasn't changed, we're still carping from the sidelines, and our position is being continually marginalised as we're not in the governing body of the EUParl and we're not in the EMU and don't have any kind of say over EMU monetary policy, the current driving force of EU economic growth.
I've come to the conclusion that the only way to ensure British prosperity is to leave or go all in, the status quo is the worst of both worlds, we don't get to govern ourselves fully and we are marginalised in the EU. At least the federalists are open and honest about their arguments, they believe that the UK couldn't survive alone in the world and wish to hitch us to the EU State. There aren't many of them for obvious reasons, but I can't help but agree with them in the event of a remain vote. It will be put up or shut up time if we vote to remain.
I'm with Robert, we'll vote Remain in June and vote to Leave within a decade.
I don't think I could go through all this again.
In 2015, David Cameron offered a referendum to keep the tory kipper tendency on board.
What, I wonder, will be offered in 2020. Free Union Jack cushion covers?
Cameron doesn't care about 2020. He'll be off living a life of fabulous wealth and luxury with all the wreckage of these past few weeks in his wake...
He'll get a job with Goldmans, or a place on the IMF/OECD.
That's how it works.
Why? He's already loaded. I imagine he'll spend a lot of time in the countryside.
Quite right. Dave belongs to that old breed of squire Tory who thinks that acquiring vast wealth beyond what one has inherited is rather vulgar. We should all wish him well in his long retirement - be it starting next month or in a couple of years.
Kevin Alcock @MSmithsonPB@hocwatch This one has Tories backing remain by a 28% margin. I'd be astonished if that was correct.
I've just gone through the numbers. They are way out of line with other polls.
65+ Leave lead of 7% 75+ Leave lead of only 3% C1 58/33 Remain lead (25%) C2s tied 43/43 C2DE tied 45/45
Cons 60/34 Remain lead (26%)
If that is correct then, yes, we will very probably vote to Remain by 60/40. But Ipsos would be having to be doing something very right that everyone else is doing very wrong.
Subsamples should always be treated with caution, but this is the only poll I've seen in which Conservative voters have broken so heavily for Remain.
I note the ORB poll with a 15% brexit lead sampled a whopping 800 people. The IPSOS/Mori 1002.
The BES poll which we await a breathless article on sampled a tiny sample of er... 22,000 and had Leave ahead 43% to 40.5%
Hmm
Anyone complaining about the lack of a BES thread, can they also post a link to the detailed data please, which includes the methodology and full breakdown. Ta.
Some acknowledgement that it even exists would be a start. Of course, since all the regulars OTL are devout Remainians, we don't expect it.
It has been mentioned several times although notably Leavers are only interested in quoting the part which gives them a tiny lead - not the basic poll which has Remain ahead.
Not so. It was first mentioned by TSE yesterday and I have since agreed he and Mike are quite right not to publish until we have the details. Please don't misrepresent people.
You obviously missed Tissue's post earlier today. Please don't tell me what to do.
I notice the poor kids are all up in arms at the horrid and beastly GCSE Biology exam. I would like to add my voice of complaint...the questions sounded far too easy to me.
I notice the poor kids are all up in arms at the horrid and beastly GCSE Biology exam. I would like to add my voice of complaint...the questions sounded far too easy to me.
My impression is not that the questions were too hard but they had SFA to do with biology. All the quotes seem to suggest that the kids were taught and expected to be tested on biology and were instead asked what makes an independent company and what drinks do girls and boys prefer.
Like finding out there's gambling going on Rick's cafe.
Again, I'll go back to this one last time before I do some actual work.
How does the remain side square the circle of the British public being sold an economic vision of the EU with the reality of a political union? Let's say that remain wins, it's 55-45 in favour. Our position in the EU hasn't changed, we're still carping from the sidelines, and our position is being continually marginalised as we're not in the governing body of the EUParl and we're not in the EMU and don't have any kind of say over EMU monetary policy, the current driving force of EU economic growth.
I've come to the conclusion that the only way to ensure British prosperity is to leave or go all in, the status quo is the worst of both worlds, we don't get to govern ourselves fully and we are marginalised in the EU. At least the federalists are open and honest about their arguments, they believe that the UK couldn't survive alone in the world and wish to hitch us to the EU State. There aren't many of them for obvious reasons, but I can't help but agree with them in the event of a remain vote. It will be put up or shut up time if we vote to remain.
I'm with Robert, we'll vote Remain in June and vote to Leave within a decade.
I don't think I could go through all this again.
In 2015, David Cameron offered a referendum to keep the tory kipper tendency on board.
What, I wonder, will be offered in 2020. Free Union Jack cushion covers?
Cameron doesn't care about 2020. He'll be off living a life of fabulous wealth and luxury with all the wreckage of these past few weeks in his wake...
He'll get a job with Goldmans, or a place on the IMF/OECD.
That's how it works.
Why? He's already loaded. I imagine he'll spend a lot of time in the countryside.
Oh, at his tender young age I think he'll take something. Even if it's part time.
"Many non-governmental organisations (NGOs) believe that when David Cameron leaves office he will make this issue [anti-corruption] a major theme of his post-premiership years. A lot could ride, then, on whether this summit can deliver the change the prime minister himself wants to see."
Looking at the polls this week I am amazed that we still have this vast difference between phone and online polling, particularly when done by the same companies.
I thought that after the last polling fiasco there had been some sort of big conference that was supposed to sort this out. If it is the same companies producing wildly different polls then it can't even be a disagreement between companies over which is more accurate. ICM for example would be arguing with themselves.
How do the polling companies move forward after this because at the moment it looks as if they have learnt nothing from the GE.
When the Online polls are shown to have been wrong on 23rd June there will be a blood letting .
And similarly if the phone polls are shown to be wrong. It works both ways and I don't have your arrogance to try and claim one set is obviously right and the other wrong because it matches my hopes.
Martin Boon of ICM very decently gave reasons on Monday why either phone polls or online polls could be wrong. Yougov first began polling in 2002, and neither type of polling has proved obviously better than the other over the past 14 years.
Like finding out there's gambling going on Rick's cafe.
Again, I'll go back to this one last time before I do some actual work.
How does the remain side square the circle of the British public being sold an economic vision of the EU with the reality of a political union? Let's say that remain wins, it's 55-45 in favour. Our position in the EU hasn't changed, we're still carping from the sidelines, and our position is being continually marginalised as we're not in the governing body of the EUParl and we're not in the EMU and don't have any kind of say over EMU monetary policy, the current driving force of EU economic growth.
I've come to the conclusion that the only way to ensure British prosperity is to leave or go all in, the status quo is the worst of both worlds, we don't get to govern ourselves fully and we are marginalised in the EU. At least the federalists are open and honest about their arguments, they believe that the UK couldn't survive alone in the world and wish to hitch us to the EU State. There aren't many of them for obvious reasons, but I can't help but agree with them in the event of a remain vote. It will be put up or shut up time if we vote to remain.
I'm with Robert, we'll vote Remain in June and vote to Leave within a decade.
I don't think I could go through all this again.
In 2015, David Cameron offered a referendum to keep the tory kipper tendency on board.
What, I wonder, will be offered in 2020. Free Union Jack cushion covers?
Cameron doesn't care about 2020. He'll be off living a life of fabulous wealth and luxury with all the wreckage of these past few weeks in his wake...
He'll get a job with Goldmans, or a place on the IMF/OECD.
That's how it works.
Why? He's already loaded. I imagine he'll spend a lot of time in the countryside.
You don't understand avarice. For the afflicted, such as Dodgy Dave, there's no such thing as too much money.
I notice the poor kids are all up in arms at the horrid and beastly GCSE Biology exam. I would like to add my voice of complaint...the questions sounded far too easy to me.
My impression is not that the questions were too hard but they had SFA to do with biology. All the quotes seem to suggest that the kids were taught and expected to be tested on biology and were instead asked what makes an independent company and what drinks do girls and boys prefer.
They were easier than biology questions...kids should be rejoicing.
Instead unable to come with a sensible definition of an independent company and read a few surveys they scream blue murder that it wasn't in the exam board crib guide, which they learned by rote.
Like finding out there's gambling going on Rick's cafe.
Again, I'll go back to this one last time before I do some actual work.
How does the remain side square the circle of the British public being sold an economic vision of the EU with the reality of a political union? Let's say that remain wins, it's 55-45 in favour. Our position in the EU hasn't changed, we're still carping from the sidelines, and our position is being continually marginalised as we're not in the governing body of the EUParl and we're not in the EMU and don't have any kind of say over EMU monetary policy, the current driving force of EU economic growth.
I've come to the conclusion that the only way to ensure British prosperity is to leave or go all in, the status quo is the worst of both worlds, we don't get to govern ourselves fully and we are marginalised in the EU. At least the federalists are open and honest about their arguments, they believe that the UK couldn't survive alone in the world and wish to hitch us to the EU State. There aren't many of them for obvious reasons, but I can't help but agree with them in the event of a remain vote. It will be put up or shut up time if we vote to remain.
I'm with Robert, we'll vote Remain in June and vote to Leave within a decade.
I don't think I could go through all this again.
In 2015, David Cameron offered a referendum to keep the tory kipper tendency on board.
What, I wonder, will be offered in 2020. Free Union Jack cushion covers?
Cameron doesn't care about 2020. He'll be off living a life of fabulous wealth and luxury with all the wreckage of these past few weeks in his wake...
He'll get a job with Goldmans, or a place on the IMF/OECD.
That's how it works.
Why? He's already loaded. I imagine he'll spend a lot of time in the countryside.
Oh, at his tender young age I think he'll take something. Even if it's part time.
"Many non-governmental organisations (NGOs) believe that when David Cameron leaves office he will make this issue [anti-corruption] a major theme of his post-premiership years. A lot could ride, then, on whether this summit can deliver the change the prime minister himself wants to see."
Like finding out there's gambling going on Rick's cafe.
Again, I'll go back to this one last time before I do some actual work.
How does the remain side square the circle of the British public being sold an economic vision of the EU with the reality of a political union? Let's say that remain wins, it's 55-45 in favour. Our position in the EU hasn't changed, we're still carping from the sidelines, and our position is being continually marginalised as we're not in the governing body of the EUParl and we're not in the EMU and don't have any kind of say over EMU monetary policy, the current driving force of EU economic growth.
I've come to the conclusion that the only way to ensure British prosperity is to leave or go all in, the status quo is the worst of both worlds, we don't get to govern ourselves fully and we are marginalised in the EU. At least the federalists are open and honest about their arguments, they believe that the UK couldn't survive alone in the world and wish to hitch us to the EU State. There aren't many of them for obvious reasons, but I can't help but agree with them in the event of a remain vote. It will be put up or shut up time if we vote to remain.
I'm with Robert, we'll vote Remain in June and vote to Leave within a decade.
I don't think I could go through all this again.
In 2015, David Cameron offered a referendum to keep the tory kipper tendency on board.
What, I wonder, will be offered in 2020. Free Union Jack cushion covers?
Cameron doesn't care about 2020. He'll be off living a life of fabulous wealth and luxury with all the wreckage of these past few weeks in his wake...
He'll get a job with Goldmans, or a place on the IMF/OECD.
That's how it works.
Why? He's already loaded. I imagine he'll spend a lot of time in the countryside.
You don't understand avarice. For the afflicted, such as Dodgy Dave, there's no such thing as too much money.
The polling that shows LEAVE’s emphasis on “sovereignty” simply isn’t resonating ... just look at how poorly “Britain’s ability to make its own laws” rates [amongst issues that are important to how people choose to vote]. Just 14% named this.
It isn't just Leave's arguments. The main arguments for Remain. according to their literature, are jobs (rated fifth) and cost of living (not rated at all). Apart from sovereignty the main argument for Leave is cost of EU membership fees (rated eleventh)
Back on Topic. I for one have no problem over "loss of sovereignty" to the EU.
The European Parliament is, in fact, far more representative of opinion in this country, taken overall, than Westminster is. Of course, the UK delegation is not, since it is full of UKIP MEPS who hardly ever turn up anyway. And that is the fault of the Labour Party who landed us with the worst system of PR that they could think of.
But overall the European Parliament is very representive of opinion throughout Europe. There is even a good body of Liberals there - even though there is a deficit among the UK representation, again thanks to Labour jiggery-pokery.
In contrast, there is a majority of Conservative MPs in the House of Commons, even though Cameron failed to persuade even 25% of the registered voters to give him their support. The Conservative Government has no mandate for anything, but it gets away with doing whatever it likes.
The people who are concerned with "loss of sovereignty" are presumably Conservative voters, who think that a corrupt minority representing their own interests should decide everything for everybody, and always in their own personal interest.
"Many non-governmental organisations (NGOs) believe that when David Cameron leaves office he will make this issue [anti-corruption] a major theme of his post-premiership years. A lot could ride, then, on whether this summit can deliver the change the prime minister himself wants to see."
---------------
Blair as a peace envoy, Cameron anti-corruption campaigner.
I am slightly confused as to where the Sovereignty Bill has disappeared to.
That lying, treacherous quisling Cameron abandoned the idea after he lied to the British people to get himself elected.... How did it all go so wrong...
They'd still vote him back in as PM.
Perhaps you're out touch?
Maybe i am - if this poll is true then I've totally misread the character of the British people.
I thought people like Plato, Cyclefree, Max PB, Philip Thompson, Sean Fear, Pulpstar, Sunil, Robert Smithson, Charles, Morris Dancer, Richard Tyndall and Gin1138 represented the common ground of British politics.
If it turns out I (and they) are wrong then there will be a lot of thinking to do.
I myself won't have much interest in carrying on in politics. So enjoy it.
My stated goal is to reduce government spending in the UK to 6% of GDP. I'm not sure that makes me the common ground.
I notice the poor kids are all up in arms at the horrid and beastly GCSE Biology exam. I would like to add my voice of complaint...the questions sounded far too easy to me.
Have you got a link to the paper, or the questions. The Mail article was astonishingly poor in that it didn't identify any of the questions the examinees had concerns over specifically.
Like finding out there's gambling going on Rick's cafe.
Again, I'll go back to this one last time before I do some actual work.
How does the remain side square the circle of the British public being sold an economic vision of the EU with the reality of a political union? Let's say that remain wins, it's 55-45 in favour. Our position in the EU hasn't changed, we're still carping from the sidelines, and our position is being continually marginalised as we're not in the governing body of the EUParl and we're not in the EMU and don't have any kind of say over EMU monetary policy, the current driving force of EU economic growth.
I've come to the conclusion that the only way to ensure British prosperity is to leave or go all in, the status quo is the worst of both worlds, we don't get to govern ourselves fully and we are marginalised in the EU. At least the federalists are open and honest about their arguments, they believe that the UK couldn't survive alone in the world and wish to hitch us to the EU State. There aren't many of them for obvious reasons, but I can't help but agree with them in the event of a remain vote. It will be put up or shut up time if we vote to remain.
I'm with Robert, we'll vote Remain in June and vote to Leave within a decade.
I don't think I could go through all this again.
In 2015, David Cameron offered a referendum to keep the tory kipper tendency on board.
What, I wonder, will be offered in 2020. Free Union Jack cushion covers?
Cameron doesn't care about 2020. He'll be off living a life of fabulous wealth and luxury with all the wreckage of these past few weeks in his wake...
He'll get a job with Goldmans, or a place on the IMF/OECD.
That's how it works.
Gordon Brown - settled into obscurity Tony Blair - jetted off around the world, earning $250,000 a speech. Oh yeah, and was Middle East peace envoy. (What a joke.) John Major - joined Carlyle Group, a US Private Equity firm Margaret Thatcher - settled into obscurity
None of the previous occupants of the PM's office has ended up at Goldman Sachs, and only John Major did anything even vaguely similar.
I notice the poor kids are all up in arms at the horrid and beastly GCSE Biology exam. I would like to add my voice of complaint...the questions sounded far too easy to me.
Have you got a link to the paper, or the questions. The Mail article was astonishingly poor in that it didn't identify any of the questions the examinees had concerns over specifically.
I believe it is against the law to show papers etc. But one question was "define an independent company" (and it was in the context of companies who do research) i.e. they were clearly looking for something really straight forward in regards to why their research isn't bias etc because they haven't taken money from an interested party.
The other one everybody is getting their knickers in a twist (including parents screaming blue murder about how dare they mention alcohol) was basically some survey data about under aged drinking habits, and they just had to interpret the survey data.
So basically bullshit easy stuff that if I had been doing those exams I would be embarrassed they asked and been happy to keep quiet as wouldn't want people thinking my GCSE's were a piece of cake.
With the economic stormclouds gathering, we may be be entering a sort of twilight zone where Remainers want to Leave, and Leavers want to Remain. The ideal Remain scenario being that Leave wins, the economy takes a nosedive, and Cameron and Osborne can hang the blame for their epic economic failure on the instability of 'Brexit'. Who knows, perhaps a prolonged depression might even lead us back into the welcoming arms of the EU, who would have us back, but with a long list of conditions, and for good. The ideal Leave scenario being that we narrowly Remain, with a lot of buyers remorse, growing anger toward the EU, recession, rubbishing of the 'Treasury Report', and the prospect of reclaiming the Tory party.
Like finding out there's gambling going on Rick's cafe.
Again, I'll go back to this one last time before I do some actual work.
How does the remain side square the circle of the British public being sold an economic vision of the EU with the reality of a political union? Let's say that remain wins, it's 55-45 in favour. Our position in the EU hasn't changed, we're still carping from the sidelines, and our position is being continually marginalised as we're not in the governing body of the EUParl and we're not in the EMU and don't have any kind of say over EMU monetary policy, the current driving force of EU economic growth.
I've come to the conclusion that the only way to ensure British prosperity is to leave or go all in, the status quo is the worst of both worlds, we don't get to govern ourselves fully and we are marginalised in the EU. At least the federalists are open and honest about their arguments, they believe that the UK couldn't survive alone in the world and wish to hitch us to the EU State. There aren't many of them for obvious reasons, but I can't help but agree with them in the event of a remain vote. It will be put up or shut up time if we vote to remain.
I'm with Robert, we'll vote Remain in June and vote to Leave within a decade.
I don't think I could go through all this again.
In 2015, David Cameron offered a referendum to keep the tory kipper tendency on board.
What, I wonder, will be offered in 2020. Free Union Jack cushion covers?
Cameron doesn't care about 2020. He'll be off living a life of fabulous wealth and luxury with all the wreckage of these past few weeks in his wake...
He'll get a job with Goldmans, or a place on the IMF/OECD.
That's how it works.
Why? He's already loaded. I imagine he'll spend a lot of time in the countryside.
You don't understand avarice. For the afflicted, such as Dodgy Dave, there's no such thing as too much money.
I notice the poor kids are all up in arms at the horrid and beastly GCSE Biology exam. I would like to add my voice of complaint...the questions sounded far too easy to me.
My impression is not that the questions were too hard but they had SFA to do with biology. All the quotes seem to suggest that the kids were taught and expected to be tested on biology and were instead asked what makes an independent company and what drinks do girls and boys prefer.
On the tube into the office this morning a very diverse bunch of teenagers boarded nosily and boisterously as teenagers in a group do. It was rush hour and hot and crowded. Not very nice. They proceeded to test each other on their chemistry A level revision. All colours, both sexes, nice Norf London accents. It was very uplifting.
Andy Burnham has declared his intention to stand for mayor of Greater Manchester with a warning that Labour risks being eclipsed in the north of England if the party doesn’t take devolution seriously.
The shadow home secretary, who has been MP for Leigh in Greater Manchester for 15 years, said he would leave the Commons if he was elected, arguing that Labour must not repeat the mistakes that has seen it reduced into third place in Scotland in this month’s Holyrood elections.
Arguing that Labour must field its “biggest names” for mayoral jobs, Burnham said: “The mistake Labour made in Scotland was that when devolution came, we didn’t field our biggest names and consequently it looked like we didn’t take it seriously enough. We can’t make that mistake again.”
I am slightly confused as to where the Sovereignty Bill has disappeared to.
That lying, treacherous quisling Cameron abandoned the idea after he lied to the British people to get himself elected.... How did it all go so wrong...
They'd still vote him back in as PM.
Perhaps you're out touch?
Maybe i am - if this poll is true then I've totally misread the character of the British people.
I thought people like Plato, Cyclefree, Max PB, Philip Thompson, Sean Fear, Pulpstar, Sunil, Robert Smithson, Charles, Morris Dancer, Richard Tyndall and Gin1138 represented the common ground of British politics.
If it turns out I (and they) are wrong then there will be a lot of thinking to do.
I myself won't have much interest in carrying on in politics. So enjoy it.
My stated goal is to reduce government spending in the UK to 6% of GDP. I'm not sure that makes me the common ground.
I don't think I represent the common ground of British politics.
Like finding out there's gambling going on Rick's cafe.
Again, I'll go back to this one last time before I do some actual work.
How does the remain side square the circle of the British public being sold an economic vision of the EU with the reality of a political union? Let's say that remain wins, it's 55-45 in favour. Our position in the EU hasn't changed, we're still carping from the sidelines, and our position is being continually marginalised as we're not in the governing body of the EUParl and we're not in the EMU and don't have any kind of say over EMU monetary policy, the current driving force of EU economic growth.
I've come to the conclusion that the only way to ensure British prosperity is to leave or go all in, the status quo is the worst of both worlds, we don't get to govern ourselves fully and we are marginalised in the EU. At least the federalists are open and honest about their arguments, they believe that the UK couldn't survive alone in the world and wish to hitch us to the EU State. There aren't many of them for obvious reasons, but I can't help but agree with them in the event of a remain vote. It will be put up or shut up time if we vote to remain.
I'm with Robert, we'll vote Remain in June and vote to Leave within a decade.
I don't think I could go through all this again.
In 2015, David Cameron offered a referendum to keep the tory kipper tendency on board.
What, I wonder, will be offered in 2020. Free Union Jack cushion covers?
Cameron doesn't care about 2020. He'll be off living a life of fabulous wealth and luxury with all the wreckage of these past few weeks in his wake...
He'll get a job with Goldmans, or a place on the IMF/OECD.
That's how it works.
Gordon Brown - settled into obscurity Tony Blair - jetted off around the world, earning $250,000 a speech. Oh yeah, and was Middle East peace envoy. (What a joke.) John Major - joined Carlyle Group, a US Private Equity firm Margaret Thatcher - settled into obscurity
None of the previous occupants of the PM's office has ended up at Goldman Sachs, and only John Major did anything even vaguely similar.
Tony Blair makes a mint of money advising people like President Karimov on PR.
Andy Burnham has declared his intention to stand for mayor of Greater Manchester with a warning that Labour risks being eclipsed in the north of England if the party doesn’t take devolution seriously.
The shadow home secretary, who has been MP for Leigh in Greater Manchester for 15 years, said he would leave the Commons if he was elected, arguing that Labour must not repeat the mistakes that has seen it reduced into third place in Scotland in this month’s Holyrood elections.
Arguing that Labour must field its “biggest names” for mayoral jobs, Burnham said: “The mistake Labour made in Scotland was that when devolution came, we didn’t field our biggest names and consequently it looked like we didn’t take it seriously enough. We can’t make that mistake again.”
Andy Burnham has declared his intention to stand for mayor of Greater Manchester with a warning that Labour risks being eclipsed in the north of England if the party doesn’t take devolution seriously.
Ipsos are typically lying with statistics. Nos. 2, 6 and 9 are explicitly about immigration (immigrants, immigration, refugees), nos. 5, 7 and 8 are implicitly about immigration (impact on "British jobs", "British workers" and on "public services/housing"), and for many people no. 1 ("economy") is about immigration too.
Pollsters can draw bars on a chart and report objectively on people's "unprompted" answers, but without proper interpretation all of the data is worthless.
Not so many people are concerned about "sovereignty"? Really? This is garbage in, garbage out. Some people whose most important motivation on 23 June will be their view that there is too much immigration will say that they're most concerned about the economy, some will say immigration, some will say refugees, some will say British jobs, some will say British workers, and some will probably say they're most concerned about their Aunt Fanny. Quick, let's get our clipboards out.
British people are far more concerned about immigration than any political party that more than a few of them would trust to govern the country would like to admit, and this has been true for two generations. For many people, this is what the referendum is about. Practically no-one cares about whether Leaving would lead to the adoption of Swiss or a Norwegian model or whether Remaining would avoid a fall in exports. Everyone nowadays is an armchair public relations expert, tracking how this speech, event or phrase will play in this or that market, but the understanding of the psychology of politics and propaganda remains low.
Pete "Mandy the Yacht" Mandelson, whose understanding is obviously very good, or at least it used to be, said that Leave have only got immigration. In other words, Remain/Fear should try to go round them and emphasise the number of different arguments they are making: they should sell quantity as relevance and rightness and as not at all akin to being one-tracked and shallow. When a person is very scared, they can get scared by all sorts of different noises. The interesting thing is that Leave also play on Fear. So it's fear against fear.
And perhaps, in a kind of mass act of Standing There With Your Mouth Open Letting The Enemy In Your Door Because You're Too Scared Not To, an orgy of Voting for What You Know is Wrong, perhaps Remain are going to win this. If they do, it will be close, and the rift in the country is likely to be much more consequential than the rift in the Tory party.
Like finding out there's gambling going on Rick's cafe.
Again, I'll go back to this one last time before I do some actual work.
How does the remain side square the circle of the British public being sold an economic vision of the EU with the reality of a political union? Let's say that remain wins, it's 55-45 in favour. Our position in the EU hasn't changed, we're still carping from the sidelines, and our position is being continually marginalised as we're not in the governing body of the EUParl and we're not in the EMU and don't have any kind of say over EMU monetary policy, the current driving force of EU economic growth.
I've come to the conclusion that the only way to ensure British prosperity is to leave or go all in, the status quo is the worst of both worlds, we don't get to govern ourselves fully and we are marginalised in the EU. At least the federalists are open and honest about their arguments, they believe that the UK couldn't survive alone in the world and wish to hitch us to the EU State. There aren't many of them for obvious reasons, but I can't help but agree with them in the event of a remain vote. It will be put up or shut up time if we vote to remain.
I'm with Robert, we'll vote Remain in June and vote to Leave within a decade.
I don't think I could go through all this again.
In 2015, David Cameron offered a referendum to keep the tory kipper tendency on board.
What, I wonder, will be offered in 2020. Free Union Jack cushion covers?
Cameron doesn't care about 2020. He'll be off living a life of fabulous wealth and luxury with all the wreckage of these past few weeks in his wake...
He'll get a job with Goldmans, or a place on the IMF/OECD.
That's how it works.
Gordon Brown - settled into obscurity Tony Blair - jetted off around the world, earning $250,000 a speech. Oh yeah, and was Middle East peace envoy. (What a joke.) John Major - joined Carlyle Group, a US Private Equity firm Margaret Thatcher - settled into obscurity
None of the previous occupants of the PM's office has ended up at Goldman Sachs, and only John Major did anything even vaguely similar.
Tony Blair makes a mint of money advising people like President Karimov on PR.
"First, invent some evidence, and then invade Iraq. Works every time."
There's some disquiet over at the Welsh Assembly where newly elected UKIP AM and group leader Neil Hamilton has called former Welsh Lib Dem leader Kirsty Williams and Plaid Cymru leader Leanne Wood "concubines" in First Minister Carwyn Jones' "harem".
He also calls Ms Wood a "very cheap date indeed" and accuses Plaid Cymru of being "bigoted" towards UKIP.
Like finding out there's gambling going on Rick's cafe.
Again, I'll go back to this one last time before I do some actual work.
How does the remain side square the circle of the British public being sold an economic vision of the EU with the reality of a political union? Let's say that remain wins, it's 55-45 in favour. Our position in the EU hasn't changed, we're still carping from the sidelines, and our position is being continually marginalised as we're not in the governing body of the EUParl and we're not in the EMU and don't have any kind of say over EMU monetary policy, the current driving force of EU economic growth.
I've come to the conclusion that the only way to ensure British prosperity is to leave or go all in, the status quo is the worst of both worlds, we don't get to govern ourselves fully and we are marginalised in the EU. At least the federalists are open and honest about their arguments, they believe that the UK couldn't survive alone in the world and wish to hitch us to the EU State. There aren't many of them for obvious reasons, but I can't help but agree with them in the event of a remain vote. It will be put up or shut up time if we vote to remain.
I'm with Robert, we'll vote Remain in June and vote to Leave within a decade.
I don't think I could go through all this again.
In 2015, David Cameron offered a referendum to keep the tory kipper tendency on board.
What, I wonder, will be offered in 2020. Free Union Jack cushion covers?
Cameron doesn't care about 2020. He'll be off living a life of fabulous wealth and luxury with all the wreckage of these past few weeks in his wake...
He'll get a job with Goldmans, or a place on the IMF/OECD.
That's how it works.
None of the previous occupants of the PM's office has ended up at Goldman Sachs, and only John Major did anything even vaguely similar.
Tony Blair makes a mint of money advising people like President Karimov on PR.
"First, invent some evidence, and then invade Iraq. Works every time."
"Boiling your enemies alive is a bit OTT. Try to come up with something a little less messy."
Back on Topic. I for one have no problem over "loss of sovereignty" to the EU.
The European Parliament is, in fact, far more representative of opinion in this country, taken overall, than Westminster is. Of course, the UK delegation is not, since it is full of UKIP MEPS who hardly ever turn up anyway. And that is the fault of the Labour Party who landed us with the worst system of PR that they could think of.
But overall the European Parliament is very representive of opinion throughout Europe. There is even a good body of Liberals there - even though there is a deficit among the UK representation, again thanks to Labour jiggery-pokery.
In contrast, there is a majority of Conservative MPs in the House of Commons, even though Cameron failed to persuade even 25% of the registered voters to give him their support. The Conservative Government has no mandate for anything, but it gets away with doing whatever it likes.
The people who are concerned with "loss of sovereignty" are presumably Conservative voters, who think that a corrupt minority representing their own interests should decide everything for everybody, and always in their own personal interest.
In case you missed it, at the last GE a majority of the votes were for right of centre parties.
If people can't be arsed to vote they don't deserve to be listened to when they whine about the outcome.
There's some disquiet over at the Welsh Assembly where newly elected UKIP AM and group leader Neil Hamilton has called former Welsh Lib Dem leader Kirsty Williams and Plaid Cymru leader Leanne Wood "concubines" in First Minister Carwyn Jones' "harem".
He also calls Ms Wood a "very cheap date indeed" and accuses Plaid Cymru of being "bigoted" towards UKIP.
Andy Burnham has declared his intention to stand for mayor of Greater Manchester with a warning that Labour risks being eclipsed in the north of England if the party doesn’t take devolution seriously.
Alastair's Option 5
That's "5) Give up and leave politics
Relatively lowly rightwing Labour supporters have been stopping their direct debits without much fuss. Should more senior Labour rightwingers do the same thing? It would be an admission of defeat and a decision that a substantial strand of British political thought would go unrepresented for the medium term." no?
I actually think that Khan, Burnham et al could form a viable strategy, supporting the national government on issues where they overlap, and object when they can do something different within their areas of control.
If this poll of voters concerns is accurate you wonder why it hasn't been researched. For all that's been said about the scatter-gun effect of the REMAIN campaign you can be absolutely certain that their agency will have researched voters concerns on the day they were appointed.
Before you can answer a brief you have to have one. If the reason LEAVE have been concentrating on sovereignty is because that's the concern of those running the campaign then they have to get themselves an agency quickly and start acting like professionals
"Advertising people who ignore research are as dangerous as generals who ignore decodes of enemy signals." David Ogilvy
Like finding out there's gambling going on Rick's cafe.
Again, I'll go back to this one last time before I do some actual work.
How does the remain side square the circle of the British public being sold an economic vision of the EU with the reality of a political union? Let's say that remain wins, it's 55-45 in favour. Our position in the EU hasn't changed, we're still carping from the sidelines, and our position is being continually marginalised as we're not in the governing body of the EUParl and we're not in the EMU and don't have any kind of say over EMU monetary policy, the current driving force of EU economic growth.
I've come to the conclusion that the only way to ensure British prosperity is to leave or go all in, the status quo is the worst of both worlds, we don't get to govern ourselves fully and we are marginalised in the EU. At least the federalists are open and honest about their arguments, they believe that the UK couldn't survive alone in the world and wish to hitch us to the EU State. There aren't many of them for obvious reasons, but I can't help but agree with them in the event of a remain vote. It will be put up or shut up time if we vote to remain.
I'm with Robert, we'll vote Remain in June and vote to Leave within a decade.
I don't think I could go through all this again.
In 2015, David Cameron offered a referendum to keep the tory kipper tendency on board.
What, I wonder, will be offered in 2020. Free Union Jack cushion covers?
Cameron doesn't care about 2020. He'll be off living a life of fabulous wealth and luxury with all the wreckage of these past few weeks in his wake...
He'll get a job with Goldmans, or a place on the IMF/OECD.
That's how it works.
Gordon Brown - settled into obscurity Tony Blair - jetted off around the world, earning $250,000 a speech. Oh yeah, and was Middle East peace envoy. (What a joke.) John Major - joined Carlyle Group, a US Private Equity firm Margaret Thatcher - settled into obscurity
None of the previous occupants of the PM's office has ended up at Goldman Sachs, and only John Major did anything even vaguely similar.
Just watched the State Opening..It seems to me that the entire thing is overdone..We need to get rid of the Diamonds, gold, uniforms, hangers on and get the old girl up there in her best frock, say her bit and then she can go and take the dogs fp a walk..she has as much influence on the running of the country as one of the cleaning ladies in the HOC..
If this poll of voters concerns is accurate you wonder why it hasn't been researched. For all that's been said about the scatter-gun effect of the REMAIN campaign you can be absolutely certain that their agency will have researched voters concerns on the day they were appointed.
@TomBaldwin66: When Ed Miliband tried "One Nation" our pollsters insisted no-one knew what it meant. David Cameron uses different pollsters. #QueensSpeech
@TomBaldwin66: @RobDotHutton You miss the point. I'm suggesting we should have stuck with it. Cameron has rather more successful pollsters than we did.
@TSE,you think we will get another chance to vote on the EU in the next ten years,more like 40 years,please stop the wind up.
By then we should have enough EU nationals living here who will have the say we never leave.
Alternatively the EU might evolve over the next 10 years into something more acceptable to the moderate mainstream majority in this country, allowing us to get the option most of us probably want but getting there whilst being on the inside of the tent having helped to shape it. Masters of our destiny - I like that.
Leave in the next 2 years and we won't get that opportunity.
"Stay in - for now" - the motto of the Reluctant Remainer!
Pretty much sums up where I am.
It is entirely possible that the potential departure of one of their biggest economies may concentrate minds and lead people to think 'we don't want to go through that again'. Does anyone doubt the likely reaction of the currency markets for both the £ and € the day of a REMAIN vote?
Of course, those of a more suspicious/prescient (delete as appropriate) disposition may fear we won't be given the option to vote again. How will they stop us?
I notice the poor kids are all up in arms at the horrid and beastly GCSE Biology exam. I would like to add my voice of complaint...the questions sounded far too easy to me.
Have you got a link to the paper, or the questions. The Mail article was astonishingly poor in that it didn't identify any of the questions the examinees had concerns over specifically.
I believe it is against the law to show papers etc. But one question was "define an independent company" (and it was in the context of companies who do research) i.e. they were clearly looking for something really straight forward in regards to why their research isn't bias etc because they haven't taken money from an interested party.
The other one everybody is getting their knickers in a twist (including parents screaming blue murder about how dare they mention alcohol) was basically some survey data about under aged drinking habits, and they just had to interpret the survey data.
So basically bullshit easy stuff that if I had been doing those exams I would be embarrassed they asked and been happy to keep quiet as wouldn't want people thinking my GCSE's were a piece of cake.
At college, I had a question on an exam paper which was "Epstein-Barr virus is the Rosetta Stone of human viral oncology. Discuss" I am not sure how many taking the exam knew what the Rosetta Stone was, having not studied either history nor ancient languages since the 3rd form.
PS this was well before the language tuition company Rosetta Stone was in existence
Looking at the polls this week I am amazed that we still have this vast difference between phone and online polling, particularly when done by the same companies.
I thought that after the last polling fiasco there had been some sort of big conference that was supposed to sort this out. If it is the same companies producing wildly different polls then it can't even be a disagreement between companies over which is more accurate. ICM for example would be arguing with themselves.
How do the polling companies move forward after this because at the moment it looks as if they have learnt nothing from the GE.
When the Online polls are shown to have been wrong on 23rd June there will be a blood letting .
And similarly if the phone polls are shown to be wrong. It works both ways and I don't have your arrogance to try and claim one set is obviously right and the other wrong because it matches my hopes.
Martin Boon of ICM very decently gave reasons on Monday why either phone polls or online polls could be wrong. Yougov first began polling in 2002, and neither type of polling has proved obviously better than the other over the past 14 years.
Because pollsters are used to compensating for biases. If a polling method introduces a bias it should come out over time as the polling company compensates for it. A rare referendum on a single topic is a moonshot. They don't have the chance to adjust for the effects that are particular to that referendum.
Pollsters eat and drink this stuff. I think they have a good hunch of where things aren't quite right and at the extreme where one of their polls misses the target. But as Anthony Wells put it - I am paraphrasing liberally - polling companies aren't paid to have hunches. They are paid to deliver a snapshot and data. Any adjustments to the data have to be grounded.
(I don't think politicians are lying duplicitous b*st*rds, btw, but I do think they try to square a lot of circles.)
For my sins, I grew up around politicians and still spend quite a bit of time with them.
I can confirm that they are, actually, lying duplicitous b*st*rds
(They are also charming, amusing, and a lot of fun to be with. Case in point, I had a very nice chat with Frances Osborne on Monday evening about women who have loved or lusted throughout history. While watching her husband dance. Badly.)
Just the man....I've been invited to have dinner at the House of Commons next Tuesday. Should I be worried about predatory SNPers or dressing as smartly as jeremy?
I suspect most Conservative Association Chairman are in favour of reintroduction of the death penalty, but that most Conservative voters oppose it.
I reckon most Tory voters support it. A poll conducted in 2015 showed 48% in favour, but curiously I couldn't find what figure it gave for those who were opposed.
Just watched the State Opening..It seems to me that the entire thing is overdone..We need to get rid of the Diamonds, gold, uniforms, hangers on and get the old girl up there in her best frock, say her bit and then she can go and take the dogs fp a walk..she has as much influence on the running of the country as one of the cleaning ladies in the HOC..
I agree. It is embarrassingly OTT. I suspect many who were present felt the same way - including the Queen. But who has the power and the courage to change it?
Just watched the State Opening..It seems to me that the entire thing is overdone..We need to get rid of the Diamonds, gold, uniforms, hangers on and get the old girl up there in her best frock, say her bit and then she can go and take the dogs fp a walk..she has as much influence on the running of the country as one of the cleaning ladies in the HOC..
I agree. It is embarrassingly OTT. I suspect many who were present felt the same way - including the Queen. But who has the power and the courage to change it?
There were donkey's years when Victoria went nowhere near Parliament...
Back on Topic. I for one have no problem over "loss of sovereignty" to the EU.
The European Parliament is, in fact, far more representative of opinion in this country, taken overall, than Westminster is. Of course, the UK delegation is not, since it is full of UKIP MEPS who hardly ever turn up anyway. And that is the fault of the Labour Party who landed us with the worst system of PR that they could think of.
But overall the European Parliament is very representive of opinion throughout Europe. There is even a good body of Liberals there - even though there is a deficit among the UK representation, again thanks to Labour jiggery-pokery.
In contrast, there is a majority of Conservative MPs in the House of Commons, even though Cameron failed to persuade even 25% of the registered voters to give him their support. The Conservative Government has no mandate for anything, but it gets away with doing whatever it likes.
The people who are concerned with "loss of sovereignty" are presumably Conservative voters, who think that a corrupt minority representing their own interests should decide everything for everybody, and always in their own personal interest.
If you are arguing that the European Parliament is a paragon of representative democracy then that's certainly a brave perspective to take.
I think that even a fair numbers of Remainers would disagree with that.
Just watched the State Opening..It seems to me that the entire thing is overdone..We need to get rid of the Diamonds, gold, uniforms, hangers on and get the old girl up there in her best frock, say her bit and then she can go and take the dogs fp a walk..she has as much influence on the running of the country as one of the cleaning ladies in the HOC..
Just watched the State Opening..It seems to me that the entire thing is overdone..We need to get rid of the Diamonds, gold, uniforms, hangers on and get the old girl up there in her best frock, say her bit and then she can go and take the dogs fp a walk..she has as much influence on the running of the country as one of the cleaning ladies in the HOC..
I agree. It is embarrassingly OTT. I suspect many who were present felt the same way - including the Queen. But who has the power and the courage to change it?
Having heard it on the wireless it definitely sounded like liz was reading as if what is this bullshit have they got me reading.
I am slightly confused as to where the Sovereignty Bill has disappeared to.
That lying, treacherous quisling Cameron abandoned the idea after he lied to the British people to get himself elected.... How did it all go so wrong...
They'd still vote him back in as PM.
Perhaps you're out touch?
Maybe i am - if this poll is true then I've totally misread the character of the British people.
I thought people like Plato, Cyclefree, Max PB, Philip Thompson, Sean Fear, Pulpstar, Sunil, Robert Smithson, Charles, Morris Dancer, Richard Tyndall and Gin1138 represented the common ground of British politics.
If it turns out I (and they) are wrong then there will be a lot of thinking to do.
I myself won't have much interest in carrying on in politics. So enjoy it.
My stated goal is to reduce government spending in the UK to 6% of GDP. I'm not sure that makes me the common ground.
Comments
Or maybe not, if you can make the subject immigration and not the economy.
Leave in the next 2 years and we won't get that opportunity.
"Stay in - for now" - the motto of the Reluctant Remainer!
For me the lesson of this referendum is if you want independence from Europe, if it means that much to you, you better vote UKIP. It will never be delivered by the main parties.
Fair enough.
https://twitter.com/MoodySlayerUK/status/732919758857875456
"Evolve over the next 10 years into something more acceptable"
LOL
Clearly 40 years of the opposite haven't taught you the lesson.
Oh please you don't really believe that, do you?
The only way that will happen is if there is a massive change in attitude in the UK towards the EU and its openly expressed goal of creating a United States of Europe with the Eurozone as its 'pioneer' core.
There is no chance whatever of the EU reverting back to what it was in the 1970s or early 1980s - almost no-one in our EU neighbours who matters has the slightest interest in something like that. Nor will they.
I thought they'd all fallen out behind the scenes (well the wives anyway) Who knows what relations with Cameron, Osborne and Gove are now like.
That's how it works.
http://www.natcen.ac.uk/media/1103178/The-Benefits-of-Random-Sampling-BSA-Report.pdf
Here's some indication why from page 15:
However, is there any reason to believe that those who were more difficult to contact were distinctive in the way in which they voted? It seems that there is. Table 10 shows the distribution of reported vote in the general election broken down by the number of calls that had to be made before an interview was conducted. We can see immediately that those who were the most accessible for interview, that is they were interviewed the first time an interviewer called, were markedly more Labour and less Conservative in their sympathies than were even those who were interviewed on the second call, let alone those who were only interviewed after between three and six calls. Only amongst those who were the very hardest of all to reach (a group that as defined in Table 10 consists of less than one in ten of all those who voted and which consists disproportionately of younger voters) was the pattern reversed.
The relatively high level of support for Labour amongst those who were interviewed first time around cannot obviously be accounted for by the social character of these respondents. As we have already noted, they contain an above average proportion of older people, a group that in general was relatively unsympathetic to Labour in the election. True, those interviewed on the first call were rather more likely to be engaged in a routine or semi-routine (working class) occupation (35% of first time respondents fall into this category as compared with 30% in the sample as a whole), but even if we weight these respondents such that their class profile matches that of the sample as a whole, we still obtain a five point Labour lead.
In short, those who were most easily interviewed by BSA interviewers appear to have been more likely to support Labour and less likely to support the Conservatives to a degree that cannot be accounted for by the social profile of these respondents. If indeed this group in any way mimics the kind of person who was most likely to respond to the polls, then we can begin to understand why the polls might have overestimated Labour’s strength.
(I don't think politicians are lying duplicitous b*st*rds, btw, but I do think they try to square a lot of circles.)
For my sins, I grew up around politicians and still spend quite a bit of time with them.
I can confirm that they are, actually, lying duplicitous b*st*rds
(They are also charming, amusing, and a lot of fun to be with. Case in point, I had a very nice chat with Frances Osborne on Monday evening about women who have loved or lusted throughout history. While watching her husband dance. Badly.)
I can't make it any clearer for you.
Quite frankly, I couldn't care less what you think of me.
Kevin Alcock
@MSmithsonPB @hocwatch This one has Tories backing remain by a 28% margin. I'd be astonished if that was correct.
One thing, If tory voters really are that much in favour of remain, many tory MPs must be seriously out of touch with their constituents.
What was the wording of the BES question? Was it an online poll? When was the fieldwork? If anybody has got that data then please let me know.
If people don't like the way the site is run then they don't have to come here.
65+ Leave lead of 7%
75+ Leave lead of only 3%
C1 58/33 Remain lead (25%)
C2s tied 43/43
C2DE tied 45/45
Cons 60/34 Remain lead (26%)
If that is correct then, yes, we will very probably vote to Remain by 60/40. But Ipsos would be having to be doing something very right that everyone else is doing very wrong.
But you are already at the very bottom of my list of posters I respect on here, so that's no surprise.
"Many non-governmental organisations (NGOs) believe that when David Cameron leaves office he will make this issue [anti-corruption] a major theme of his post-premiership years. A lot could ride, then, on whether this summit can deliver the change the prime minister himself wants to see."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36246821
Instead unable to come with a sensible definition of an independent company and read a few surveys they scream blue murder that it wasn't in the exam board crib guide, which they learned by rote.
It isn't just Leave's arguments. The main arguments for Remain. according to their literature, are jobs (rated fifth) and cost of living (not rated at all). Apart from sovereignty the main argument for Leave is cost of EU membership fees (rated eleventh)
Number of Immigrants +1
own Laws +1
Ability to trade with EU -1 (REMAIN)
Impact on British Jobs -2 (REMAIN)
Impact on Public Services +2
The European Parliament is, in fact, far more representative of opinion in this country, taken overall, than Westminster is. Of course, the UK delegation is not, since it is full of UKIP MEPS who hardly ever turn up anyway. And that is the fault of the Labour Party who landed us with the worst system of PR that they could think of.
But overall the European Parliament is very representive of opinion throughout Europe. There is even a good body of Liberals there - even though there is a deficit among the UK representation, again thanks to Labour jiggery-pokery.
In contrast, there is a majority of Conservative MPs in the House of Commons, even though Cameron failed to persuade even 25% of the registered voters to give him their support. The Conservative Government has no mandate for anything, but it gets away with doing whatever it likes.
The people who are concerned with "loss of sovereignty" are presumably Conservative voters, who think that a corrupt minority representing their own interests should decide everything for everybody, and always in their own personal interest.
"Many non-governmental organisations (NGOs) believe that when David Cameron leaves office he will make this issue [anti-corruption] a major theme of his post-premiership years. A lot could ride, then, on whether this summit can deliver the change the prime minister himself wants to see."
---------------
Blair as a peace envoy, Cameron anti-corruption campaigner.
Irony has no bounds in the modern world...
Tony Blair - jetted off around the world, earning $250,000 a speech. Oh yeah, and was Middle East peace envoy. (What a joke.)
John Major - joined Carlyle Group, a US Private Equity firm
Margaret Thatcher - settled into obscurity
None of the previous occupants of the PM's office has ended up at Goldman Sachs, and only John Major did anything even vaguely similar.
The other one everybody is getting their knickers in a twist (including parents screaming blue murder about how dare they mention alcohol) was basically some survey data about under aged drinking habits, and they just had to interpret the survey data.
So basically bullshit easy stuff that if I had been doing those exams I would be embarrassed they asked and been happy to keep quiet as wouldn't want people thinking my GCSE's were a piece of cake.
Those kind of differences happen all the time.
Andy Burnham has declared his intention to stand for mayor of Greater Manchester with a warning that Labour risks being eclipsed in the north of England if the party doesn’t take devolution seriously.
The shadow home secretary, who has been MP for Leigh in Greater Manchester for 15 years, said he would leave the Commons if he was elected, arguing that Labour must not repeat the mistakes that has seen it reduced into third place in Scotland in this month’s Holyrood elections.
Arguing that Labour must field its “biggest names” for mayoral jobs, Burnham said: “The mistake Labour made in Scotland was that when devolution came, we didn’t field our biggest names and consequently it looked like we didn’t take it seriously enough. We can’t make that mistake again.”
http://gu.com/p/4jbcc?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
Pollsters can draw bars on a chart and report objectively on people's "unprompted" answers, but without proper interpretation all of the data is worthless.
Not so many people are concerned about "sovereignty"? Really? This is garbage in, garbage out. Some people whose most important motivation on 23 June will be their view that there is too much immigration will say that they're most concerned about the economy, some will say immigration, some will say refugees, some will say British jobs, some will say British workers, and some will probably say they're most concerned about their Aunt Fanny. Quick, let's get our clipboards out.
British people are far more concerned about immigration than any political party that more than a few of them would trust to govern the country would like to admit, and this has been true for two generations. For many people, this is what the referendum is about. Practically no-one cares about whether Leaving would lead to the adoption of Swiss or a Norwegian model or whether Remaining would avoid a fall in exports. Everyone nowadays is an armchair public relations expert, tracking how this speech, event or phrase will play in this or that market, but the understanding of the psychology of politics and propaganda remains low.
Pete "Mandy the Yacht" Mandelson, whose understanding is obviously very good, or at least it used to be, said that Leave have only got immigration. In other words, Remain/Fear should try to go round them and emphasise the number of different arguments they are making: they should sell quantity as relevance and rightness and as not at all akin to being one-tracked and shallow. When a person is very scared, they can get scared by all sorts of different noises. The interesting thing is that Leave also play on Fear. So it's fear against fear.
And perhaps, in a kind of mass act of Standing There With Your Mouth Open Letting The Enemy In Your Door Because You're Too Scared Not To, an orgy of Voting for What You Know is Wrong, perhaps Remain are going to win this. If they do, it will be close, and the rift in the country is likely to be much more consequential than the rift in the Tory party.
There's some disquiet over at the Welsh Assembly where newly elected UKIP AM and group leader Neil Hamilton has called former Welsh Lib Dem leader Kirsty Williams and Plaid Cymru leader Leanne Wood "concubines" in First Minister Carwyn Jones' "harem".
He also calls Ms Wood a "very cheap date indeed" and accuses Plaid Cymru of being "bigoted" towards UKIP.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-36050790
If people can't be arsed to vote they don't deserve to be listened to when they whine about the outcome.
Relatively lowly rightwing Labour supporters have been stopping their direct debits without much fuss. Should more senior Labour rightwingers do the same thing? It would be an admission of defeat and a decision that a substantial strand of British political thought would go unrepresented for the medium term." no?
I actually think that Khan, Burnham et al could form a viable strategy, supporting the national government on issues where they overlap, and object when they can do something different within their areas of control.
Before you can answer a brief you have to have one. If the reason LEAVE have been concentrating on sovereignty is because that's the concern of those running the campaign then they have to get themselves an agency quickly and start acting like professionals
"Advertising people who ignore research are as dangerous as generals who ignore decodes of enemy signals." David Ogilvy
If the Ken Clarke v IDS election had been open to all Tory voters, Clarke would have walked it.
@TomBaldwin66: @RobDotHutton You miss the point. I'm suggesting we should have stuck with it. Cameron has rather more successful pollsters than we did.
@TomBaldwin66: @jdav101 @RobDotHutton @JamesDMorris I should have added "and better spin doctors" - as evidenced by results.
@TomMcTague: Corbyn offers to sing the Red Flag with Caroline Spelman. A Tory MP shouts out: "How about the national anthem?"
It is entirely possible that the potential departure of one of their biggest economies may concentrate minds and lead people to think 'we don't want to go through that again'. Does anyone doubt the likely reaction of the currency markets for both the £ and € the day of a REMAIN vote?
Of course, those of a more suspicious/prescient (delete as appropriate) disposition may fear we won't be given the option to vote again. How will they stop us?
Common ground in political terms doesn't necessarily bear much resemblance to what people actually want.
PS this was well before the language tuition company Rosetta Stone was in existence
Pollsters eat and drink this stuff. I think they have a good hunch of where things aren't quite right and at the extreme where one of their polls misses the target. But as Anthony Wells put it - I am paraphrasing liberally - polling companies aren't paid to have hunches. They are paid to deliver a snapshot and data. Any adjustments to the data have to be grounded.
Those Peebies who disagree with the above paragraph may care to name the most left-wing patriot in Britain, together with a reasoned explanation...
A poll in 2014 gave 45% for, 39% against.
I think that even a fair numbers of Remainers would disagree with that.
Getting rid of pomp and circumstance is the Way of Bercow.