My best (current) prediction of the EU ref result is as follows:
(1) About 10-15% remain undecided (not 4 or 5%) (2) Leave are on about 40% (3) Remain are on 45%-50%
The undecideds will break 60/40 for Remain and a good chunk won't vote, say half, so assuming a meaty non differential turnout we'll get a result like:
Leave 44-46% to Remain 54-56%
I thank you.
Do you have an older relative called Jack something?
Are we going to have a PB competition?
Didn't we already?
That was the online competition. There's also going to be a phone competition where we reverse our entries.
Why do I get the feeling hunt has caved in & there will be little real reform.
This was not really about reform. Hunt managed to conflate what should have been separate issues: a noble attempt to end excess deaths over the weekend got caught up in macho posturing about overtime rates.
Once you start falling below 2000 it gets more iffy.
Speaking as a mathematician rather than a politician, no, really not. Obviously the more complete and representative sample you have, the better, to the point where you canvass everyone who will vote and if they all tell the truth you have a variation of 0.00%. But it's a logarithmic curve and it flattens out very quickly after 1000. If you imagine picking green and red apples out of a tub, you'll get a very similar result whether you pick 1000 or 2000 or 10000 - what you need is enough to establish the pattern.
Where polls can go hideously wrong is in their sampling and assumptions, and since we're all scrabbling to decide how to predict differential turnout in the referendum, it makes good sense to look at a variety of polls making different assumptions. If I was a Leaver I certainly wouldn't freak out over one poll. But the sample size isn't really the issue.
I came to this site initially because of my work in public health, estimating demand for certain treatments on the base of population based studies.
Size of a study is no substitute for getting an accurate sample, and the way we measure that is participation rate. So if I arrange a random sample of the population and screen them for diabetes, then the utility of my answer is based on whether the sample is truly representative and what the participation rate is. It is fairly straightforward to calculate the standard error and confidence intervals. The size of the sample helps reduce this as Nick says, though with diminishing returns.
The equivalent figure for a telephone poll would be the percentage of contacts that participate, a figure that we rarely see cited. This is because non-participants are intrinsically different to participants and no amount of statistical jiggery pokery can make up for a biased sample.
While I can see where you are coming from I think there are key differences.
Duabetes rates you would expect to be much the same across the UK (fried Mars Bar zones excepted perhaps)
Political opinion not so. 800 people works out at roughly 1 in a million of the population or 8 per county.
I really cant see how you can use such a small sample in a contest which cuts across all normal po,itical boundaries and no comparable event since 1975 to use as a reference point.
The same issues will also make filtering out self selecting shills from online polls more difficult whatever the sample size.
A lot of talk about voting in to reform. Sigh, by the same usual delusional Tories who have peddled that lie for over 40 years now. I think people are missing the point anyway: if we vote to Remain inside the EU it'll take us for the ride of our lives. We've seen nothign yet. The rebate? Gone. Opposition to extended QMV? Over. Blocking an EU armed forces? Haha, you Britons have no choice - what are you going to do? You voted to stay inside and signed Lisbon!
Ever higher immigration despite promises to bring it down, ever higher bills with the rebate being sliced away at in some wonderful "deal" in which we always lose out on in the longer term, an acceleration in powers going to Brussels in anticipation of political union by 2025 (see the Five Presidents Report how much clearer do they have to be until you get it into your thick skulls), Turkey joining with the right to settle given to 80m poor Turks and so on.
Of course the Remainians in the Conservative Party will worm their way out of it. "We did not vote for that" oh really, did you not? Despite all the warning signs being there? It'll be fun in future years to watch how Tory politicians will be interrogated on how they voted in the referendum: because those who voted to Remain in will be viewed at in the same way those who wanted to take us into the Eurozone are now.
The damage done to the country though in the meantime because of their lap-dog belief in anything the Tory leadership says or does.... the anger at grassroots level will be that of venomous.
A lot of talk about voting in to reform. Sigh, by the same usual delusion Tories who have peddled that lie for over 40 years now. I think people are missing the point anyway: if we vote to Remain inside it it'll take us for the ride of our lives. The rebate? Gone. Opposition to extended QMV? Over. Blocking an EU armed forces? Haha, you Britons have no choice - what are you going to do, you voted to stay inside?
Ever higher immigration despite promises to bring it down, over higher bills with the rebate being sliced away at, an acceleration in powers going to Brussels in anticipation of political union by 2025 (see the Five Presidents Report), Turkey joining with the right to settle given to 80m poor Turks and so on. It's all so clear to see.
Of course the Remainians in the Conservative Party will worm their way out of it. "We did not vote for that" oh really did you not? Despite all the warning signs being there. It'll be fun in future years to watch how Tory politicians will be interrogated on how they voted in the referendum: because those who voted to Remain in will be viewed at in the same way those who wanted to take us into the Eurozone are now.
Given we retain a veto over most of those changes why would they happen?
A lot of talk about voting in to reform. Sigh, by the same usual delusion Tories who have peddled that lie for over 40 years now. I think people are missing the point anyway: if we vote to Remain inside it it'll take us for the ride of our lives. The rebate? Gone. Opposition to extended QMV? Over. Blocking an EU armed forces? Haha, you Britons have no choice - what are you going to do, you voted to stay inside?
Ever higher immigration despite promises to bring it down, over higher bills with the rebate being sliced away at, an acceleration in powers going to Brussels in anticipation of political union by 2025 (see the Five Presidents Report), Turkey joining with the right to settle given to 80m poor Turks and so on. It's all so clear to see.
Of course the Remainians in the Conservative Party will worm their way out of it. "We did not vote for that" oh really did you not? Despite all the warning signs being there. It'll be fun in future years to watch how Tory politicians will be interrogated on how they voted in the referendum: because those who voted to Remain in will be viewed at in the same way those who wanted to take us into the Eurozone are now.
You make it sound like this will be the last opportunity to vote on it. If such refrains go shears I am sure there will be clamor for exit, especially if there is a push towards more political integration.
A lot of talk about voting in to reform. Sigh, by the same usual delusional Tories who have peddled that lie for over 40 years now. I think people are missing the point anyway: if we vote to Remain inside the EU it'll take us for the ride of our lives. We've seen nothign yet. The rebate? Gone. Opposition to extended QMV? Over. Blocking an EU armed forces? Haha, you Britons have no choice - what are you going to do? You voted to stay inside and signed Lisbon!
Ever higher immigration despite promises to bring it down, ever higher bills with the rebate being sliced away at in some wonderful "deal" in which we always lose out on in the longer term, an acceleration in powers going to Brussels in anticipation of political union by 2025 (see the Five Presidents Report how much clearer do they have to be until you get it into your thick skulls), Turkey joining with the right to settle given to 80m poor Turks and so on.
Of course the Remainians in the Conservative Party will worm their way out of it. "We did not vote for that" oh really, did you not? Despite all the warning signs being there? It'll be fun in future years to watch how Tory politicians will be interrogated on how they voted in the referendum: because those who voted to Remain in will be viewed at in the same way those who wanted to take us into the Eurozone are now.
The damage done to the country though in the meantime because of their lap-dog belief in anything the Tory leadership says or does.... the anger at grassroots level will be that of venomous.
I'm convinced this referendum is the Tories Iraq and while it may take a little while, their guilt and shame at what Cameron and Osborne have done will eventually cast them into oblivion for a very long time.
A lot of talk about voting in to reform. Sigh, by the same usual delusion Tories who have peddled that lie for over 40 years now. I think people are missing the point anyway: if we vote to Remain inside it it'll take us for the ride of our lives. The rebate? Gone. Opposition to extended QMV? Over. Blocking an EU armed forces? Haha, you Britons have no choice - what are you going to do, you voted to stay inside?
Ever higher immigration despite promises to bring it down, over higher bills with the rebate being sliced away at, an acceleration in powers going to Brussels in anticipation of political union by 2025 (see the Five Presidents Report), Turkey joining with the right to settle given to 80m poor Turks and so on. It's all so clear to see.
Of course the Remainians in the Conservative Party will worm their way out of it. "We did not vote for that" oh really did you not? Despite all the warning signs being there. It'll be fun in future years to watch how Tory politicians will be interrogated on how they voted in the referendum: because those who voted to Remain in will be viewed at in the same way those who wanted to take us into the Eurozone are now.
Given we retain a veto over most of those changes why would they happen?
Britain always signs up to more integration. Heath promised a Common Market and here we are today with the flag, anthem, a President, a flag, no border controls despite electoral promises from all major parties, an embryonic defence force, increasing control over social services and even national budgets being presented to the European Commission.
How well have our vetoes served us in the past? And how well have they served us under the Conservative Party? The Single European Act. The Maastricht Treaty. The European Exchange Rate Mechanism. Opting into Treaty of Lisbon Law + Justice competences.
How much more power to the Tory Party have to give over to Brussels until you, Richard and others will wake up? We'd no doubt be on the verge of political union into a federal Europe and you lot would still be crowing to us all on how "well guys.. see.. its not that bad, good Mr Osborne secured us some red lines and like... if we don't like it we can always have another referendum!"
You're not all only being dishonest to the rest of us but you're being dishonest to yourselves.
As someone not bothered by polls and who doesn't live from one meaningless sub-sample to the next, I don't really care. I shall vote how I want even if I was the only one so doing.
What then of politics on and after 24/6 in the event of a comfortable REMAIN win ? As there isn't a REMAIN BUT option on the ballot paper, it may seem a complete vindication of the Cameron negotiation package but time and events will be the Devil in that particular bit of detail.
For UKIP, perversely, a REMAIN win may be quite a good thing. The minority favouring a withdrawal from the EU will need a political voice and UKIP offers that. The Conservative Party may or may not head toward LEAVE with its next leader but a REMAIN win strengthens Cameron continuity in the form of Osborne and May over the likes of Gove and Johnson so UKIP as the refuge.
If REMAIN wins, we remain as we have always been - arguing for reform which will never happen, accepting opt-outs which get progressively weakened and watered down and periodic flounces which, post-Referendum, will be more symbolic than actual.
But it's what we will have voted for so we can't really complain.
Surely a Remain win will infuriate the Tory grassroots and confirm them in the view that Cameron and Osborne have betrayed them. So the next leader is hardly likely to be a prominent remainer, whatever the referendum result.
My best (current) prediction of the EU ref result is as follows:
(1) About 10-15% remain undecided (not 4 or 5%) (2) Leave are on about 40% (3) Remain are on 45%-50%
The undecideds will break 60/40 for Remain and a good chunk won't vote, say half, so assuming a meaty non differential turnout we'll get a result like:
Leave 44-46% to Remain 54-56%
I thank you.
Do you have an older relative called Jack something?
Nope, but I get to the same answer using my reasoning!
A lot of talk about voting in to reform. Sigh, by the same usual delusion Tories who have peddled that lie for over 40 years now. I think people are missing the point anyway: if we vote to Remain inside it it'll take us for the ride of our lives. The rebate? Gone. Opposition to extended QMV? Over. Blocking an EU armed forces? Haha, you Britons have no choice - what are you going to do, you voted to stay inside?
Ever higher immigration despite promises to bring it down, over higher bills with the rebate being sliced away at, an acceleration in powers going to Brussels in anticipation of political union by 2025 (see the Five Presidents Report), Turkey joining with the right to settle given to 80m poor Turks and so on. It's all so clear to see.
Of course the Remainians in the Conservative Party will worm their way out of it. "We did not vote for that" oh really did you not? Despite all the warning signs being there. It'll be fun in future years to watch how Tory politicians will be interrogated on how they voted in the referendum: because those who voted to Remain in will be viewed at in the same way those who wanted to take us into the Eurozone are now.
You make it sound like this will be the last opportunity to vote on it. If such refrains go shears I am sure there will be clamor for exit, especially if there is a push towards more political integration.
The last time we had a vote was 1975.
Most of this forum will likely be in the ground or drooling onto their pyjama trousers by the next time they offer us a vote. If they offer us a vote... it'll likely just acquire powers to such an extend rapidly that it'll be presented as rubber stamping the "safe" status quo.
My best (current) prediction of the EU ref result is as follows:
(1) About 10-15% remain undecided (not 4 or 5%) (2) Leave are on about 40% (3) Remain are on 45%-50%
The undecideds will break 60/40 for Remain and a good chunk won't vote, say half, so assuming a meaty non differential turnout we'll get a result like:
Leave 44-46% to Remain 54-56%
I thank you.
On the current Leave/Remain gap you are giving more weight to the phone as opposed to online polls?
Leave are downweighted a little bit. They seem to be bunching at 45-47% in the onlines. Around 38-41% in the phones.
Remain are all over the shop but I'm not convinced by the evidence that 55% is the true picture.
A lot of talk about voting in to reform. Sigh, by the same usual delusion Tories who have peddled that lie for over 40 years now. I think people are missing the point anyway: if we vote to Remain inside it it'll take us for the ride of our lives. The rebate? Gone. Opposition to extended QMV? Over. Blocking an EU armed forces? Haha, you Britons have no choice - what are you going to do, you voted to stay inside?
Ever higher immigration despite promises to bring it down, over higher bills with the rebate being sliced away at, an acceleration in powers going to Brussels in anticipation of political union by 2025 (see the Five Presidents Report), Turkey joining with the right to settle given to 80m poor Turks and so on. It's all so clear to see.
Of course the Remainians in the Conservative Party will worm their way out of it. "We did not vote for that" oh really did you not? Despite all the warning signs being there. It'll be fun in future years to watch how Tory politicians will be interrogated on how they voted in the referendum: because those who voted to Remain in will be viewed at in the same way those who wanted to take us into the Eurozone are now.
You make it sound like this will be the last opportunity to vote on it. If such refrains go shears I am sure there will be clamor for exit, especially if there is a push towards more political integration.
The Posh Boys have told us repeatedly (in between fetching over POTUS to threaten their own citizens in their own country and comparing LEAVERS to the worst form of scum on Earth) that this is a "once in a lifetime" event.
And on this I agree with the Posh Boys. We can't keep repeating referendums all the time. The spasm this referendum has produced is quite enough for our lifetimes.... So after this vote we're "in" forever and we'd better shut up whinging and make the best the best of it (the euro, single army, single country called USE, etc.)
A lot of talk about voting in to reform. Sigh, by the same usual delusion Tories who have peddled that lie for over 40 years now. I think people are missing the point anyway: if we vote to Remain inside it it'll take us for the ride of our lives. The rebate? Gone. Opposition to extended QMV? Over. Blocking an EU armed forces? Haha, you Britons have no choice - what are you going to do, you voted to stay inside?
Ever higher immigration despite promises to bring it down, over higher bills with the rebate being sliced away at, an acceleration in powers going to Brussels in anticipation of political union by 2025 (see the Five Presidents Report), Turkey joining with the right to settle given to 80m poor Turks and so on. It's all so clear to see.
Of course the Remainians in the Conservative Party will worm their way out of it. "We did not vote for that" oh really did you not? Despite all the warning signs being there. It'll be fun in future years to watch how Tory politicians will be interrogated on how they voted in the referendum: because those who voted to Remain in will be viewed at in the same way those who wanted to take us into the Eurozone are now.
You make it sound like this will be the last opportunity to vote on it. If such refrains go shears I am sure there will be clamor for exit, especially if there is a push towards more political integration.
The last time we had a vote was 1975.
Most of this forum will likely be in the ground or drooling onto their pyjama trousers by the next time they offer us a vote. If they offer us a vote... it'll likely just acquire powers to such an extend rapidly that it'll be presented as rubber stamping the "safe" status quo.
Yes, but if they go ahead with the power grab you describe there'll be one much sooner than another forty years.
A lot of talk about voting in to reform. Sigh, by the same usual delusion Tories who have peddled that lie for over 40 years now. I think people are missing the point anyway: if we vote to Remain inside it it'll take us for the ride of our lives. The rebate? Gone. Opposition to extended QMV? Over. Blocking an EU armed forces? Haha, you Britons have no choice - what are you going to do, you voted to stay inside?
Ever higher immigration despite promises to bring it down, over higher bills with the rebate being sliced away at, an acceleration in powers going to Brussels in anticipation of political union by 2025 (see the Five Presidents Report), Turkey joining with the right to settle given to 80m poor Turks and so on. It's all so clear to see.
Of course the Remainians in the Conservative Party will worm their way out of it. "We did not vote for that" oh really did you not? Despite all the warning signs being there. It'll be fun in future years to watch how Tory politicians will be interrogated on how they voted in the referendum: because those who voted to Remain in will be viewed at in the same way those who wanted to take us into the Eurozone are now.
You make it sound like this will be the last opportunity to vote on it. If such refrains go shears I am sure there will be clamor for exit, especially if there is a push towards more political integration.
The Posh Boys have told us repeatedly (in between fetching over POTUS to threaten their own citizens in their own country and comparing LEAVERS to the worst form of scum on Earth) that this is a "once in a lifetime" event.
And on this I agree with the Posh Boys. We can't keep repeating referendums all the time. The spasm this referendum has produced is quite enough for our lifetimes.... So after this we're "in" forever and we'd better shut up the whinging and make the best the best of it (euro, single army, single country called USE, etc.) One way or another this has to be resolved.
Don't worry the Tory Remainians will make sure we still have some control over some parts of the army. And that nice sensible PM Osborne will negotiate for us that we can keep the Queen as symbolic head of the new British federal state. Y'know, because we want to be "In Europe but not run by Europe" *snort*.
A lot of talk about voting in to reform. Sigh, by the same usual delusion Tories who have peddled that lie for over 40 years now. I think people are missing the point anyway: if we vote to Remain inside it it'll take us for the ride of our lives. The rebate? Gone. Opposition to extended QMV? Over. Blocking an EU armed forces? Haha, you Britons have no choice - what are you going to do, you voted to stay inside?
Ever higher immigration despite promises to bring it down, over higher bills with the rebate being sliced away at, an acceleration in powers going to Brussels in anticipation of political union by 2025 (see the Five Presidents Report), Turkey joining with the right to settle given to 80m poor Turks and so on. It's all so clear to see.
Of course the Remainians in the Conservative Party will worm their way out of it. "We did not vote for that" oh really did you not? Despite all the warning signs being there. It'll be fun in future years to watch how Tory politicians will be interrogated on how they voted in the referendum: because those who voted to Remain in will be viewed at in the same way those who wanted to take us into the Eurozone are now.
You make it sound like this will be the last opportunity to vote on it. If such refrains go shears I am sure there will be clamor for exit, especially if there is a push towards more political integration.
The Posh Boys have told us repeatedly (in between fetching over POTUS to threaten their own citizens in their own country and comparing LEAVERS to the worst form of scum on Earth) that this is a "once in a lifetime" event.
And on this I agree with the Posh Boys. We can't keep repeating referendums all the time. The spasm this referendum has produced is quite enough for our lifetimes.... So after this vote we're "in" forever and we'd better shut up whinging and make the best the best of it the (euro, single army, single country called USE, etc.)
One way or another this has to be resolved.
I disagree. We are not in forever. We can actually leave whenever we choose to.
@TSE,you think we will get another chance to vote on the EU in the next ten years,more like 40 years,please stop the wind up.
By then we should have enough EU nationals living here who will have the say we never leave.
Alternatively the EU might evolve over the next 10 years into something more acceptable to the moderate mainstream majority in this country, allowing us to get the option most of us probably want but getting there whilst being on the inside of the tent having helped to shape it. Masters of our destiny - I like that.
Leave in the next 2 years and we won't get that opportunity.
"Stay in - for now" - the motto of the Reluctant Remainer!
Pretty much sums up where I am.
It is entirely possible that the potential departure of one of their biggest economies may concentrate minds and lead people to think 'we don't want to go through that again'. Does anyone doubt the likely reaction of the currency markets for both the £ and € the day of a REMAIN vote?
Of course, those of a more suspicious/prescient (delete as appropriate) disposition may fear we won't be given the option to vote again. How will they stop us?
So 40 years of cajoling and persuading has achieved nothing but straight after we have agreed to stay they are suddenly going to turn round and change?
Not exactly a realistic scenario is it.
Moreover it ignores the need for the Eurozone to unify politically or fail. Faced with that necessity they are not going to go out of their way to agree anything with us.
All of that may be true.
Or not.
Of course, one of the major 'failures' of 40 years of cajoling & persuading has been the single market. Not bad for a 'failure'....
And if the Eurozone does integrate in ways that become inimical to our national interest, what's to stop us having another referendum & leaving?
Nope. That took no cajoling of the EU at all. It was always an integral part of the whole concept - the so called four freedoms. I am afraid the idea that the UK really made that happen is a myth as well.
Whilst you are sat there hoping for a Remain win backed up by a strong Tory Government who will apparently stand up for our rights and interests in a way they have never done for the past 3 decades, consider this; at some point in the not too distant future we will have a majority Labour Government or a Lib/Lab or Lab/SNP coalition. How long do you really believe our opt outs will last under those circumstances?
So, we have made the momentous decision to switch to American English for the marketing of our US events. I was the only one who voted against. I am not happy. Sometimes democracy really sucks.
Just catching up on the contents of the Queen's Speech and I cam across this little gem:
"Councils will be given powers to keep and invest 100% of business rates, and to vary their level."
It cannot be much more than 25 years since a previous Conservative government took away from local councils their ability to vary and keep business rates. One has to wonder sometimes
A lot of talk about voting in to reform. Sigh, by the same usual delusion Tories who have peddled that lie for over 40 years now. I think people are missing the point anyway: if we vote to Remain inside it it'll take us for the ride of our lives. The rebate? Gone. Opposition to extended QMV? Over. Blocking an EU armed forces? Haha, you Britons have no choice - what are you going to do, you voted to stay inside?
Ever higher immigration despite promises to bring it down, over higher bills with the rebate being sliced away at, an acceleration in powers going to Brussels in anticipation of political union by 2025 (see the Five Presidents Report), Turkey joining with the right to settle given to 80m poor Turks and so on. It's all so clear to see.
Of course the Remainians in the Conservative Party will worm their way out of it. "We did not vote for that" oh really did you not? Despite all the warning signs being there. It'll be fun in future years to watch how Tory politicians will be interrogated on how they voted in the referendum: because those who voted to Remain in will be viewed at in the same way those who wanted to take us into the Eurozone are now.
You make it sound like this will be the last opportunity to vote on it. If such refrains go shears I am sure there will be clamor for exit, especially if there is a push towards more political integration.
The last time we had a vote was 1975.
Most of this forum will likely be in the ground or drooling onto their pyjama trousers by the next time they offer us a vote. If they offer us a vote... it'll likely just acquire powers to such an extend rapidly that it'll be presented as rubber stamping the "safe" status quo.
Yes, but if they go ahead with the power grab you describe there'll be one much sooner than another forty years.
Why would they? They've already made clear in the Five Presidents Report where it is going. As do the treaties. Huge amounts of power have been transferred from 1975 to now without a single referendum being held despite promise after promise of one being held. That includes the other countries where many who joined the Eurozone weren't even presented with the choice via a referendum. A huge transfer of sovereignty without a vote.
If you think they're ever going to activate the ridiculous "referendum lock" or pass anything other than a purely symbolic "Sovereignty Bill" then you're as naive as they think you are.
So, we have made the momentous decision to switch to American English for the marketing of our US events. I was the only one who voted against. I am not happy. Sometimes democracy really sucks.
@TSE,you think we will get another chance to vote on the EU in the next ten years,more like 40 years,please stop the wind up.
By then we should have enough EU nationals living here who will have the say we never leave.
Alternatively the EU might evolve over the next 10 years into something more acceptable to the moderate mainstream majority in this country, allowing us to get the option most of us probably want but getting there whilst being on the inside of the tent having helped to shape it. Masters of our destiny - I like that.
Leave in the next 2 years and we won't get that opportunity.
"Stay in - for now" - the motto of the Reluctant Remainer!
Pretty much sums up where I am.
It is entirely possible that the potential departure of one of their biggest economies may concentrate minds and lead people to think 'we don't want to go through that again'. Does anyone doubt the likely reaction of the currency markets for both the £ and € the day of a REMAIN vote?
Of course, those of a more suspicious/prescient (delete as appropriate) disposition may fear we won't be given the option to vote again. How will they stop us?
So 40 years of cajoling and persuading has achieved nothing but straight after we have agreed to stay they are suddenly going to turn round and change?
Not exactly a realistic scenario is it.
Moreover it ignores the need for the Eurozone to unify politically or fail. Faced with that necessity they are not going to go out of their way to agree anything with us.
All of that may be true.
Or not.
Of course, one of the major 'failures' of 40 years of cajoling & persuading has been the single market. Not bad for a 'failure'....
And if the Eurozone does integrate in ways that become inimical to our national interest, what's to stop us having another referendum & leaving?
Nope. That took no cajoling of the EU at all. It was always an integral part of the whole concept - the so called four freedoms. I am afraid the idea that the UK really made that happen is a myth as well.
Whilst you are sat there hoping for a Remain win backed up by a strong Tory Government who will apparently stand up for our rights and interests in a way they have never done for the past 3 decades, consider this; at some point in the not too distant future we will have a majority Labour Government or a Lib/Lab or Lab/SNP coalition. How long do you really believe our opt outs will last under those circumstances?
Why would they? They've already made clear in the Five Presidents Report where it is going. As do the treaties. Huge amounts of power have been transferred from 1975 to now without a single referendum being held despite promise after promise of one being held. That includes the other countries where many who joined the Eurozone weren't even presented with the choice via a referendum. A huge transfer of sovereignty without a vote.
If you think they're ever going to activate the ridiculous "referendum lock" or pass anything other than a purely symbolic "Sovereignty Bill" then you're as naive as they think you are.
They in your first sentence are the British Govt, they in your second sentence is the EU president. Yes, no referendum was held between 1975, but there was never a requirement to hold one like there is now. I would argue you are the naive one thinking this is one and only chance to quit the EU, and are in fact stating that to persuade people to vote Leave now.
A lot of talk about voting in to reform. Sigh, by the same usual delusion Tories who have peddled that lie for over 40 years now. I think people are missing the point anyway: if we vote to Remain inside it it'll take us for the ride of our lives. The rebate? Gone. Opposition to extended QMV? Over. Blocking an EU armed forces? Haha, you Britons have no choice - what are you going to do, you voted to stay inside?
Ever higher immigration despite promises to bring it down, over higher bills with the rebate being sliced away at, an acceleration in powers going to Brussels in anticipation of political union by 2025 (see the Five Presidents Report), Turkey joining with the right to settle given to 80m poor Turks and so on. It's all so clear to see.
Of course the Remainians in the Conservative Party will worm their way out of it. "We did not vote for that" oh really did you not? Despite all the warning signs being there. It'll be fun in future years to watch how Tory politicians will be interrogated on how they voted in the referendum: because those who voted to Remain in will be viewed at in the same way those who wanted to take us into the Eurozone are now.
You make it sound like this will be the last opportunity to vote on it. If such refrains go shears I am sure there will be clamor for exit, especially if there is a push towards more political integration.
The Posh Boys have told us repeatedly (in between fetching over POTUS to threaten their own citizens in their own country and comparing LEAVERS to the worst form of scum on Earth) that this is a "once in a lifetime" event.
And on this I agree with the Posh Boys. We can't keep repeating referendums all the time. The spasm this referendum has produced is quite enough for our lifetimes.... So after this vote we're "in" forever and we'd better shut up whinging and make the best the best of it the (euro, single army, single country called USE, etc.)
One way or another this has to be resolved.
I disagree. We are not in forever. We can actually leave whenever we choose to.
This view means that we effectively stay where we are now - Which is that we constantly sit on the sidelines carping and moaning about what the EU is doing while staying in it and being subject to all its daft diktats but having no influence because our sulky, two faced attitude annoys everybody.
It's the worst of all worlds. We've either got to leave and make our own way in the world or stay and fully commit to this thing once and for all.
Just catching up on the contents of the Queen's Speech and I cam across this little gem:
"Councils will be given powers to keep and invest 100% of business rates, and to vary their level."
It cannot be much more than 25 years since a previous Conservative government took away from local councils their ability to vary and keep business rates. One has to wonder sometimes
That's the trouble Mr L, with getting old. It all comes round again. Believe me!
My best (current) prediction of the EU ref result is as follows:
(1) About 10-15% remain undecided (not 4 or 5%) (2) Leave are on about 40% (3) Remain are on 45%-50%
The undecideds will break 60/40 for Remain and a good chunk won't vote, say half, so assuming a meaty non differential turnout we'll get a result like:
Leave 44-46% to Remain 54-56%
I thank you.
On the current Leave/Remain gap you are giving more weight to the phone as opposed to online polls?
Leave are downweighted a little bit. They seem to be bunching at 45-47% in the onlines. Around 38-41% in the phones.
Remain are all over the shop but I'm not convinced by the evidence that 55% is the true picture.
I think the current position is probably a bit closer than you have it. I'd say both sides are in the mid-40s and that Remain is probably ahead. There's likely to be some late swing to Remain which will win with 52-3%.
Maybe.
I think it's all to play for. A single telling moment in a debate could decide it.
Why do I get the feeling hunt has caved in & there will be little real reform.
With their current worries over the referendum it seems to me that the Tories don't want a lot of other aggression flying about. After the June vote they will surely get back on their control and privatisation hobby horses.
And anyway, some people might disagree with the implications of your use of the word "reform".
This view means that we effectively stay where we are now - Which is that we constantly sit on the sidelines carping and moaning about what the EU is doing while staying in it and being subject to all its daft diktats but having no influence because our sulky, two faced attitude annoys everybody.
It's the worst of all worlds. We've either got to leave and make our own way in the world or stay and fully commit to this thing once and for all.
Common sense says the answer is a single uniform tax rate across the whole jurisdiction to simplify everything for business administration. If we're in, that's what we should argue for.
Obviously, that would be desperately unpopular with nations having to raise tax rates, and it may leave budget holes for national public spending for those cutting them.
Why would they? They've already made clear in the Five Presidents Report where it is going. As do the treaties. Huge amounts of power have been transferred from 1975 to now without a single referendum being held despite promise after promise of one being held. That includes the other countries where many who joined the Eurozone weren't even presented with the choice via a referendum. A huge transfer of sovereignty without a vote.
If you think they're ever going to activate the ridiculous "referendum lock" or pass anything other than a purely symbolic "Sovereignty Bill" then you're as naive as they think you are.
They in your first sentence are the British Govt, they in your second sentence is the EU president. Yes, no referendum was held between 1975, but there was never a requirement to hold one like there is now. I would argue you are the naive one thinking this is one and only chance to quit the EU, and are in fact stating that to persuade people to vote Leave now.
"They" refers to all of those who wish to stay in. Anybody who votes to remain within, with the knowledge of their reports, plans and past history, is guilty of committing this country to it.
And again there you go with the requirement to hold a referendum. There doesn't exist such a requirement - they had to be dragged kicking and screaming to do it this once and that was after 40 years since the last referendum. The referendum lock and sovereignty bill are as much a steaming pile of rot as Major's social opt-outs and the Eastern European border temporary controls were. In the end, the European project rolls on as it has always done.
I am slightly confused as to where the Sovereignty Bill has disappeared to.
That lying, treacherous quisling Cameron abandoned the idea after he lied to the British people to get himself elected.... How did it all go so wrong...
They'd still vote him back in as PM.
Perhaps you're out touch?
Maybe i am - if this poll is true then I've totally misread the character of the British people.
I thought people like Plato, Cyclefree, Max PB, Philip Thompson, Sean Fear, Pulpstar, Sunil, Robert Smithson, Charles, Morris Dancer, Richard Tyndall and Gin1138 represented the common ground of British politics.
If it turns out I (and they) are wrong then there will be a lot of thinking to do.
I myself won't have much interest in carrying on in politics. So enjoy it.
My stated goal is to reduce government spending in the UK to 6% of GDP. I'm not sure that makes me the common ground.
I don't think I represent the common ground of British politics.
I have no idea what I represent or whether I represent anything. But I would make a fantastic Dictatrix! .
So good in fact that even Casino Royale might be persuaded to take an interest in politics again.
A lot of talk about voting in to reform. Sigh, by the same usual delusion Tories who have peddled that lie for over 40 years now. I think people are missing the point anyway: if we vote to Remain inside it it'll take us for the ride of our lives. The rebate? Gone. Opposition to extended QMV? Over. Blocking an EU armed forces? Haha, you Britons have no choice - what are you going to do, you voted to stay inside?
Ever higher immigration despite promises to bring it down, over higher bills with the rebate being sliced away at, an acceleration in powers going to Brussels in anticipation of political union by 2025 (see the Five Presidents Report), Turkey joining with the right to settle given to 80m poor Turks and so on. It's all so clear to see.
Of course the Remainians in the Conservative Party will worm their way out of it. "We did not vote for that" oh really did you not? Despite all the warning signs being there. It'll be fun in future years to watch how Tory politicians will be interrogated on how they voted in the referendum: because those who voted to Remain in will be viewed at in the same way those who wanted to take us into the Eurozone are now.
You make it sound like this will be the last opportunity to vote on it. If such refrains go shears I am sure there will be clamor for exit, especially if there is a push towards more political integration.
The last time we had a vote was 1975.
Most of this forum will likely be in the ground or drooling onto their pyjama trousers by the next time they offer us a vote. If they offer us a vote... it'll likely just acquire powers to such an extend rapidly that it'll be presented as rubber stamping the "safe" status quo.
Yes, but if they go ahead with the power grab you describe there'll be one much sooner than another forty years.
Why would they? They've already made clear in the Five Presidents Report where it is going. As do the treaties. Huge amounts of power have been transferred from 1975 to now without a single referendum being held despite promise after promise of one being held. That includes the other countries where many who joined the Eurozone weren't even presented with the choice via a referendum. A huge transfer of sovereignty without a vote.
If you think they're ever going to activate the ridiculous "referendum lock" or pass anything other than a purely symbolic "Sovereignty Bill" then you're as naive as they think you are.
I don't think anyone can argue they didn't vote in this referendum with their eyes wide open.
Unless they deliberately kept them closed for fear of what they might see.
So, we have made the momentous decision to switch to American English for the marketing of our US events. I was the only one who voted against. I am not happy. Sometimes democracy really sucks.
Southam. Just let us know when any events are advertised and those of us dedicated to the proper use of English can make complaints. :-)
A lot of talk about voting in to reform. Sigh, by the same usual delusion Tories who have peddled that lie for over 40 years now. I think people are missing the point anyway: if we vote to Remain inside it it'll take us for the ride of our lives. The rebate? Gone. Opposition to extended QMV? Over. Blocking an EU armed forces? Haha, you Britons have no choice - what are you going to do, you voted to stay inside?
Ever higher immigration despite promises to bring it down, over higher bills with the rebate being sliced away at, an acceleration in powers going to Brussels in anticipation of political union by 2025 (see the Five Presidents Report), Turkey joining with the right to settle given to 80m poor Turks and so on. It's all so clear to see.
Of course the Remainians in the Conservative Party will worm their way out of it. "We did not vote for that" oh really did you not? Despite all the warning signs being there. It'll be fun in future years to watch how Tory politicians will be interrogated on how they voted in the referendum: because those who voted to Remain in will be viewed at in the same way those who wanted to take us into the Eurozone are now.
You make it sound like this will be the last opportunity to vote on it. If such refrains go shears I am sure there will be clamor for exit, especially if there is a push towards more political integration.
The last time we had a vote was 1975.
Most of this forum will likely be in the ground or drooling onto their pyjama trousers by the next time they offer us a vote. If they offer us a vote... it'll likely just acquire powers to such an extend rapidly that it'll be presented as rubber stamping the "safe" status quo.
Most of this forum are already drooling onto their pyjama trousers.
I think I would rather that Leave made a principled case on sovereignty and lost than made an artificial unprincipled case and just won.
The end dosen't justify the means and whatever happened to the concept of leading, ie drawing people to your point of view not just parroting what you think people will agree with because some focus group told you so.
Its close enough that stirring rhetoric could win this one and you won't get stirring rhetoric on the economics of this.
Mentioned The Machine Stops some time ago (an intriguing short story I'd like to read in the future), in which EM Forster predicts much of modern technology. Piece on it here from the BBC: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-36289890
"It's the worst of all worlds. We've either got to leave and make our own way in the world or stay and fully commit to this thing once and for all."
I agree Gin one or the other. However the messy third way will prevail with the same lines repeated ad nauseam ". "In Europe but not run by Europe " They used this in 1999 in The Conservative European Election manifesto, looks like they will use it until 2099.
Mentioned The Machine Stops some time ago (an intriguing short story I'd like to read in the future), in which EM Forster predicts much of modern technology. Piece on it here from the BBC: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-36289890
That was one of our syllabus books at school. We havent quite got to the stage of the internet printing out dinner so we never need leave our seat and religion being abolished and then reinstated so we can worship the internet..
So, we have made the momentous decision to switch to American English for the marketing of our US events. I was the only one who voted against. I am not happy. Sometimes democracy really sucks.
Southam. Just let us know when any events are advertised and those of us dedicated to the proper use of English can make complaints. :-)
LOL - absolutely.
I actually raised my voice today, which is very unusual.
A lot of talk about voting in to reform. Sigh, by the same usual delusion Tories who have peddled that lie for over 40 years now. I think people are missing the point anyway: if we vote to Remain inside it it'll take us for the ride of our lives. The rebate? Gone. Opposition to extended QMV? Over. Blocking an EU armed forces? Haha, you Britons have no choice - what are you going to do, you voted to stay inside?
Ever higher immigration despite promises to bring it down, over higher bills with the rebate being sliced away at, an acceleration in powers going to Brussels in anticipation of political union by 2025 (see the Five Presidents Report), Turkey joining with the right to settle given to 80m poor Turks and so on. It's all so clear to see.
Of course the Remainians in the Conservative Party will worm their way out of it. "We did not vote for that" oh really did you not? Despite all the warning signs being there. It'll be fun in future years to watch how Tory politicians will be interrogated on how they voted in the referendum: because those who voted to Remain in will be viewed at in the same way those who wanted to take us into the Eurozone are now.
You make it sound like this will be the last opportunity to vote on it. If such refrains go shears I am sure there will be clamor for exit, especially if there is a push towards more political integration.
The last time we had a vote was 1975.
Most of this forum will likely be in the ground or drooling onto their pyjama trousers by the next time they offer us a vote. If they offer us a vote... it'll likely just acquire powers to such an extend rapidly that it'll be presented as rubber stamping the "safe" status quo.
Most of this forum are already drooling onto their pyjama trousers.
Speak for yourself. I don't drool. And I have lingerie.
Mr. Bedfordshire, I loathed the books read at school. In retrospect, it was probably because collective reading when more than half the class never read for leisure is not ideal for enjoying a book.
"It's the worst of all worlds. We've either got to leave and make our own way in the world or stay and fully commit to this thing once and for all."
I agree Gin one or the other. However the messy third way will prevail with the same lines repeated ad nauseam ". "In Europe but not run by Europe " They used this in 1999 in The Conservative European Election manifesto, looks like they will use it until 2099.
LOL! And it will be as much rubbish in 2099 as it was in 1999...
Good news that the junior doctors' dispute may be settled. But still Hunt is so inept and stupid that he could yet put his foot in it by inflammatory language and induce them to vote against it.
Good news that the junior doctors' dispute may be settled. But still Hunt is so inept and stupid that he could yet put his foot in it by inflammatory language and induce them to vote against it.
Mentioned The Machine Stops some time ago (an intriguing short story I'd like to read in the future), in which EM Forster predicts much of modern technology. Piece on it here from the BBC: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-36289890
We read it at school. Really good and the BBC did a version some years ago. Less good. I love Forster' s work
Just catching up on the contents of the Queen's Speech and I cam across this little gem:
"Councils will be given powers to keep and invest 100% of business rates, and to vary their level."
It cannot be much more than 25 years since a previous Conservative government took away from local councils their ability to vary and keep business rates. One has to wonder sometimes
The libertarian view would be that this is an issue to be decided at a local level. The Darwinist view would be that variety is necessary for natural selection to drive evolution to the 'fittest' model, which others can then copy. The practical experience view is that poor neighbourhoods elect to push as many taxes from the poor onto the employers, even if there are few employers, thus forcing up rates, scaring away the few employers resulting in the need to push up rates further etc... Witness Detroit.
I can see that the result of this will be the exact opposite of the Tories professed wish to regenerate the Powerhouse of the North. A level regulatory and tax playing field is a sine qua non for the North to compete with the South.
Once you start falling below 2000 it gets more iffy.
Speaking as a mathematician rather than a politician, no, really not. Obviously the more complete and representative sample you have, the better, to the point where you canvass everyone who will vote and if they all tell the truth you have a variation of 0.00%. But it's a logarithmic curve and it flattens out very quickly after 1000. If you imagine picking green and red apples out of a tub, you'll get a very similar result whether you pick 1000 or 2000 or 10000 - what you need is enough to establish the pattern.
Where polls can go hideously wrong is in their sampling and assumptions, and since we're all scrabbling to decide how to predict differential turnout in the referendum, it makes good sense to look at a variety of polls making different assumptions. If I was a Leaver I certainly wouldn't freak out over one poll. But the sample size isn't really the issue.
I came to this site initially because of my work in public health, estimating demand for certain treatments on the base of population based studies.
The equivalent figure for a telephone poll would be the percentage of contacts that participate, a figure that we rarely see cited. This is because non-participants are intrinsically different to participants and no amount of statistical jiggery pokery can make up for a biased sample.
While I can see where you are coming from I think there are key differences.
Duabetes rates you would expect to be much the same across the UK (fried Mars Bar zones excepted perhaps)
Political opinion not so. 800 people works out at roughly 1 in a million of the population or 8 per county.
I really cant see how you can use such a small sample in a contest which cuts across all normal po,itical boundaries and no comparable event since 1975 to use as a reference point.
The same issues will also make filtering out self selecting shills from online polls more difficult whatever the sample size.
The secret is getting a random sample. From this it is statistically possible via calculating the Standard Error to determine the probability limits of the answer. The Standard Error will be bigger for a sample of 800 vs 20 000 (other things being equal) and by a measurable amount.
No amount of statictics can make up for a poor sample. Low participation rate is more interesting and can to some extent be addressed by multiple imputation.
So, we have made the momentous decision to switch to American English for the marketing of our US events. I was the only one who voted against. I am not happy. Sometimes democracy really sucks.
Southam. Just let us know when any events are advertised and those of us dedicated to the proper use of English can make complaints. :-)
LOL - absolutely.
I actually raised my voice today, which is very unusual.
But how long ago did you switch to using the American version of billion? Does anyone use the British version any more?
As someone not bothered by polls and who doesn't live from one meaningless sub-sample to the next, I don't really care. I shall vote how I want even if I was the only one so doing.
What then of politics on and after 24/6 in the event of a comfortable REMAIN win ? As there isn't a REMAIN BUT option on the ballot paper, it may seem a complete vindication of the Cameron negotiation package but time and events will be the Devil in that particular bit of detail.
For UKIP, perversely, a REMAIN win may be quite a good thing. The minority favouring a withdrawal from the EU will need a political voice and UKIP offers that. The Conservative Party may or may not head toward LEAVE with its next leader but a REMAIN win strengthens Cameron continuity in the form of Osborne and May over the likes of Gove and Johnson so UKIP as the refuge.
If REMAIN wins, we remain as we have always been - arguing for reform which will never happen, accepting opt-outs which get progressively weakened and watered down and periodic flounces which, post-Referendum, will be more symbolic than actual.
But it's what we will have voted for so we can't really complain.
Surely a Remain win will infuriate the Tory grassroots and confirm them in the view that Cameron and Osborne have betrayed them. So the next leader is hardly likely to be a prominent remainer, whatever the referendum result.
If the country has just voted to Remain in the EU (particularly if it is by a substantial margin) then what would be the point of the Tories choosing a leader who wants to take us out of the EU? To the average voter it would just appear as though the party wasn't listening to the electorate. If we vote Remain by a clear majority the Tories need to stop pandering to the eurosceptics and try engaging in the EU with a positive attitude rather than constantly wingeing on the sidelines.
My reading is that the deal abolishes distinction between Saturday and Sunday, so there's now just "weekend". (1/3)
You'll get plaintime if you work the odd Saturday/Sunday like any other day. Unless you do 12 weekend days in a single year (2/3)
This moves cash from people who do odd weekend shifts to people who do loads of them. Saturday and Sunday is specialish. (3/3)
Night pay is lower in this new deal, too. 37% premium v 50% in the old. It has to be said, this feels like a win for the DH (4/3)
Hunts proposed deal had the biggest pay cuts on the front line services who work most weekends, and a payrise for those who did not (amongst many other bad features). This sounds like quite a reversal.
Of course both sides will claim victory, they usually do, but the obvious question is why did Hunt refuse to go back to ACAS in January and waste four months?
So, we have made the momentous decision to switch to American English for the marketing of our US events. I was the only one who voted against. I am not happy. Sometimes democracy really sucks.
''If we vote Remain by a clear majority the Tories need to stop pandering to the eurosceptics and try engaging in the EU with a positive attitude rather than constantly wingeing on the sidelines. ''
Maybe. But tories telling the right to f8ck off and join UKIP sound a bit like Corbynites telling Blairites to f7ck off and join the tories.
A lot of talk about voting in to reform. Sigh, by the same usual delusion Tories who have peddled that lie for over 40 years now. I think people are missing the point anyway: if we vote to Remain inside it it'll take us for the ride of our lives. The rebate? Gone. Opposition to extended QMV? Over. Blocking an EU armed forces? Haha, you Britons have no choice - what are you going to do, you voted to stay inside?
Ever higher immigration despite promises to bring it down, over higher bills with the rebate being sliced away at, an acceleration in powers going to Brussels in anticipation of political union by 2025 (see the Five Presidents Report), Turkey joining with the right to settle given to 80m poor Turks and so on. It's all so clear to see.
Of course the Remainians in the Conservative Party will worm their way out of it. "We did not vote for that" oh really did you not? Despite all the warning signs being there. It'll be fun in future years to watch how Tory politicians will be interrogated on how they voted in the referendum: because those who voted to Remain in will be viewed at in the same way those who wanted to take us into the Eurozone are now.
You make it sound like this will be the last opportunity to vote on it. If such refrains go shears I am sure there will be clamor for exit, especially if there is a push towards more political integration.
The Posh Boys have told us repeatedly (in between fetching over POTUS to threaten their own citizens in their own country and comparing LEAVERS to the worst form of scum on Earth) that this is a "once in a lifetime" event.
And on this I agree with the Posh Boys. We can't keep repeating referendums all the time. The spasm this referendum has produced is quite enough for our lifetimes.... So after this vote we're "in" forever and we'd better shut up whinging and make the best the best of it the (euro, single army, single country called USE, etc.)
One way or another this has to be resolved.
I disagree. We are not in forever. We can actually leave whenever we choose to.
That's precisely where all the apocalyptic Leave scenarios crash and burn, If any of them ever came to pass we would simply leave at that point. I don;'t understand why Leavers can't grasp that fact.
My reading is that the deal abolishes distinction between Saturday and Sunday, so there's now just "weekend". (1/3)
You'll get plaintime if you work the odd Saturday/Sunday like any other day. Unless you do 12 weekend days in a single year (2/3)
This moves cash from people who do odd weekend shifts to people who do loads of them. Saturday and Sunday is specialish. (3/3)
Night pay is lower in this new deal, too. 37% premium v 50% in the old. It has to be said, this feels like a win for the DH (4/3)
Hunts proposed deal had the biggest pay cuts on the front line services who work most weekends, and a payrise for those who did not (amongst many other bad features). This sounds like quite a reversal.
Of course both sides will claim victory, they usually do, but the obvious question is why did Hunt refuse to go back to ACAS in January and waste four months?
Well it sounds (I have no idea if this is completely correct) that it will cost about the same as the previous deal.
So, we have made the momentous decision to switch to American English for the marketing of our US events. I was the only one who voted against. I am not happy. Sometimes democracy really sucks.
Southam. Just let us know when any events are advertised and those of us dedicated to the proper use of English can make complaints. :-)
LOL - absolutely.
I actually raised my voice today, which is very unusual.
But how long ago did you switch to using the American version of billion? Does anyone use the British version any more?
A lot of talk about voting in to reform. Sigh, by the same usual delusion Tories who have peddled that lie for over 40 years now. I think people are missing the point anyway: if we vote to Remain inside it it'll take us for the ride of our lives. The rebate? Gone. Opposition to extended QMV? Over. Blocking an EU armed forces? Haha, you Britons have no choice - what are you going to do, you voted to stay inside?
Ever higher immigration despite promises to bring it down, over higher bills with the rebate being sliced away at, an acceleration in powers going to Brussels in anticipation of political union by 2025 (see the Five Presidents Report), Turkey joining with the right to settle given to 80m poor Turks and so on. It's all so clear to see.
Of course the Remainians in the Conservative Party will worm their way out of it. "We did not vote for that" oh really did you not? Despite all the warning signs being there. It'll be fun in future years to watch how Tory politicians will be interrogated on how they voted in the referendum: because those who voted to Remain in will be viewed at in the same way those who wanted to take us into the Eurozone are now.
You make it sound like this will be the last opportunity to vote on it. If such refrains go shears I am sure there will be clamor for exit, especially if there is a push towards more political integration.
The last time we had a vote was 1975.
Most of this forum will likely be in the ground or drooling onto their pyjama trousers by the next time they offer us a vote. If they offer us a vote... it'll likely just acquire powers to such an extend rapidly that it'll be presented as rubber stamping the "safe" status quo.
Most of this forum are already drooling onto their pyjama trousers.
Comments
Duabetes rates you would expect to be much the same across the UK (fried Mars Bar zones excepted perhaps)
Political opinion not so. 800 people works out at roughly 1 in a million of the population or 8 per county.
I really cant see how you can use such a small sample in a contest which cuts across all normal po,itical boundaries and no comparable event since 1975 to use as a reference point.
The same issues will also make filtering out self selecting shills from online polls more difficult whatever the sample size.
Ever higher immigration despite promises to bring it down, ever higher bills with the rebate being sliced away at in some wonderful "deal" in which we always lose out on in the longer term, an acceleration in powers going to Brussels in anticipation of political union by 2025 (see the Five Presidents Report how much clearer do they have to be until you get it into your thick skulls), Turkey joining with the right to settle given to 80m poor Turks and so on.
Of course the Remainians in the Conservative Party will worm their way out of it. "We did not vote for that" oh really, did you not? Despite all the warning signs being there? It'll be fun in future years to watch how Tory politicians will be interrogated on how they voted in the referendum: because those who voted to Remain in will be viewed at in the same way those who wanted to take us into the Eurozone are now.
The damage done to the country though in the meantime because of their lap-dog belief in anything the Tory leadership says or does.... the anger at grassroots level will be that of venomous.
http://order-order.com/2016/05/18/emily-thornberrys-white-van-man-style-outburst/
@georgeeaton: No.10 spokesman says that sovereignty bill (not in Queen's Speech) will be published if UK votes to remain.
How well have our vetoes served us in the past? And how well have they served us under the Conservative Party? The Single European Act. The Maastricht Treaty. The European Exchange Rate Mechanism. Opting into Treaty of Lisbon Law + Justice competences.
How much more power to the Tory Party have to give over to Brussels until you, Richard and others will wake up? We'd no doubt be on the verge of political union into a federal Europe and you lot would still be crowing to us all on how "well guys.. see.. its not that bad, good Mr Osborne secured us some red lines and like... if we don't like it we can always have another referendum!"
You're not all only being dishonest to the rest of us but you're being dishonest to yourselves.
And that's not what the polling shows.
If Kippers are upset, they should **** off
Most of this forum will likely be in the ground or drooling onto their pyjama trousers by the next time they offer us a vote. If they offer us a vote... it'll likely just acquire powers to such an extend rapidly that it'll be presented as rubber stamping the "safe" status quo.
Remain are all over the shop but I'm not convinced by the evidence that 55% is the true picture.
And on this I agree with the Posh Boys. We can't keep repeating referendums all the time. The spasm this referendum has produced is quite enough for our lifetimes.... So after this vote we're "in" forever and we'd better shut up whinging and make the best the best of it (the euro, single army, single country called USE, etc.)
One way or another this has to be resolved.
Whilst you are sat there hoping for a Remain win backed up by a strong Tory Government who will apparently stand up for our rights and interests in a way they have never done for the past 3 decades, consider this; at some point in the not too distant future we will have a majority Labour Government or a Lib/Lab or Lab/SNP coalition. How long do you really believe our opt outs will last under those circumstances?
Chris Cook @xtophercook
My reading is that the deal abolishes distinction between Saturday and Sunday, so there's now just "weekend". (1/3)
You'll get plaintime if you work the odd Saturday/Sunday like any other day. Unless you do 12 weekend days in a single year (2/3)
This moves cash from people who do odd weekend shifts to people who do loads of them. Saturday and Sunday is specialish. (3/3)
Night pay is lower in this new deal, too. 37% premium v 50% in the old. It has to be said, this feels like a win for the DH (4/3)
"Councils will be given powers to keep and invest 100% of business rates, and to vary their level."
It cannot be much more than 25 years since a previous Conservative government took away from local councils their ability to vary and keep business rates. One has to wonder sometimes
If you think they're ever going to activate the ridiculous "referendum lock" or pass anything other than a purely symbolic "Sovereignty Bill" then you're as naive as they think you are.
It's the worst of all worlds. We've either got to leave and make our own way in the world or stay and fully commit to this thing once and for all.
Maybe.
I think it's all to play for. A single telling moment in a debate could decide it.
And anyway, some people might disagree with the implications of your use of the word "reform".
http://www.billboard.com/articles/business/6422332/europe-eu-vat-regulation-indies
Common sense says the answer is a single uniform tax rate across the whole jurisdiction to simplify everything for business administration. If we're in, that's what we should argue for.
Obviously, that would be desperately unpopular with nations having to raise tax rates, and it may leave budget holes for national public spending for those cutting them.
But I guess it's ok that Remain doesn't tell us in advance what we are voting for. Or is that hypocrisy?
And again there you go with the requirement to hold a referendum. There doesn't exist such a requirement - they had to be dragged kicking and screaming to do it this once and that was after 40 years since the last referendum. The referendum lock and sovereignty bill are as much a steaming pile of rot as Major's social opt-outs and the Eastern European border temporary controls were. In the end, the European project rolls on as it has always done.
William Hague has certainly moved a long way since his 97 - 2001 leader of the opposition days.
"Oh, what's the surprise?"
"It's just a chicken."
So good in fact that even Casino Royale might be persuaded to take an interest in politics again.
Unless they deliberately kept them closed for fear of what they might see.
In this instance, it also spares them the problem of making a difficult decision because they prefer to opt for the improbably lovely scenario.
I think I would rather that Leave made a principled case on sovereignty and lost than made an artificial unprincipled case and just won.
The end dosen't justify the means and whatever happened to the concept of leading, ie drawing people to your point of view not just parroting what you think people will agree with because some focus group told you so.
Its close enough that stirring rhetoric could win this one and you won't get stirring rhetoric on the economics of this.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-36289890
"It's the worst of all worlds. We've either got to leave and make our own way in the world or stay and fully commit to this thing once and for all."
I agree Gin one or the other.
However the messy third way will prevail with the same lines repeated ad nauseam ".
"In Europe but not run by Europe "
They used this in 1999 in The Conservative European Election manifesto, looks like they will use it until 2099.
I actually raised my voice today, which is very unusual.
The Darwinist view would be that variety is necessary for natural selection to drive evolution to the 'fittest' model, which others can then copy.
The practical experience view is that poor neighbourhoods elect to push as many taxes from the poor onto the employers, even if there are few employers, thus forcing up rates, scaring away the few employers resulting in the need to push up rates further etc... Witness Detroit.
I can see that the result of this will be the exact opposite of the Tories professed wish to regenerate the Powerhouse of the North. A level regulatory and tax playing field is a sine qua non for the North to compete with the South.
https://www.depend.com
No amount of statictics can make up for a poor sample. Low participation rate is more interesting and can to some extent be addressed by multiple imputation.
Mr. T, sounded amusing to me, though if it's a reference I know not to what.
Of course both sides will claim victory, they usually do, but the obvious question is why did Hunt refuse to go back to ACAS in January and waste four months?
Maybe. But tories telling the right to f8ck off and join UKIP sound a bit like Corbynites telling Blairites to f7ck off and join the tories.
Its a difficult one
Perhaps a win for both parties ?