Conclusions? This zero interest rate policy is now starting to put serious strain on companies and unions don't give a proverbial unless it affects the public sector.
On a refendum note, why didn't the unions use their influence to curb immigration? I mean, that's how they work; by rationing labour supply. Perhaps because the effect would be most drastic on wages in the private sector. Just a thought.
Unions are a public sector pressure group these days.
I think private sector membership runs at about 10%, and public sector unionised employees outnumber private sector ones something like 2:1. Public sector membership is something like 75%,
Gay marriage was criminal when there were almost no Muslims in Britain outside Liverpool and parts of London. It was legalised when the Muslim population was at a record level.
To be fair Vapid didn't mention Muslims. He could just as easily have been referring to immigrants ftom strongly Catholic countries.
Sure. There were definitely more Catholics in the UK before 1922.
Are you sure? There are an awful lot of Poles here now, and the part of Ireland that seceded had only quite a small population. I think it would actually be pretty close.
Interesting question! Estimated 2 million in England and Wales in the 1920s. I would guess 10 per cent of about 4.5 million people in Scotland. Enumerated 3.2 million in two Irish censes, north and south, 1926. Let's say somewhere over 5.5 million. Actually, after all the immigration, it's about 5.7 million today! So scores even.
That's rather what I thought. Of course, that doesn't necessarily alter your main point, but it's interesting to think how much the Catholic population has grown. Indeed, I would think there are more Catholics on the British mainland than there ever have been (although Ireland's population prior to the 1840s was estimated at 8 million). Yet that doesn't seem to have led to any sort of conservative backlash.
To understand this you have to understand gramascian philosophy.
The world is divided into victim groups and oppressor groups. Oppressor groups can do no right, victim groups can do no wrong.
To a large chunk of the left Muslims are a victim group subject to oppression from racists and er Israel.
The Jews have therefore become an oppressor group. However thanks to rather unpleasant events in the 1940s others somewhat understandably see them as a victim group.
Result. Not pretty.
Yes. Of course, as has been pointed out no party is clean of this predilection for costing cosying (autocorrect had a Freudian slip there) up to loathsome scumbags. But Livingstone has been openly making racist remarks about Jews for years, but he seems to continue getting away with it because as you say the Jews are now regardwe as oppressors. Only today the Morning Star was haranguing Labour for being too cowardly to stand up to international Jewry for fear of being called antisemitic. And I'm willing to bet they didn't even think of the irony of what they were saying.
Gay marriage was criminal when there were almost no Muslims in Britain outside Liverpool and parts of London. It was legalised when the Muslim population was at a record level.
To be fair Vapid didn't mention Muslims. He could just as easily have been referring to immigrants ftom strongly Catholic countries.
Sure. There were definitely more Catholics in the UK before 1922.
Are you sure? There are an awful lot of Poles here now, and the part of Ireland that seceded had only quite a small population. I think it would actually be pretty close.
Interesting question! Estimated 2 million in England and Wales in the 1920s. I would guess 10 per cent of about 4.5 million people in Scotland. Enumerated 3.2 million in two Irish censes, north and south, 1926. Let's say somewhere over 5.5 million. Actually, after all the immigration, it's about 5.7 million today! So scores even.
That's rather what I thought. Of course, that doesn't necessarily alter your main point, but it's interesting to think how much the Catholic population has grown. Indeed, I would think there are more Catholics on the British mainland than there ever have been (although Ireland's population prior to the 1840s was estimated at 8 million). Yet that doesn't seem to have led to any sort of conservative backlash.
Thats becsuse about 80%+ of them will only been in a church for Baptisms Weddings and Funerals. if ever and a good chunk of the rest are very liberal by catholic standards, as is the case in most of Europe.
Leave the west and things are very different - as they are in ethnic communities in the west that strongly cling to non western social values (including Christian communities not just Islam)
"In the Vanity Fair article, Ivana Trump told a friend that her husband's cousin, John Walter "clicks his heels and says, 'Heil Hitler," when visiting Trump's office."
Though, unlike Trump, Hitler was an admirer of Islam...
Absolutely off topic, but I am still hoping to avoid the never ending EU ref topic. Just back from a climbing trip in Nepal, and standard fare in the tea houses was a Snicker pie, or a Mars bar pie, I avoided both, but... I face new dangers,tomorrow, I start the NC500 tour of Scotland, can I avoid the battered Mars bar, and what if I come face to face with Malcolm. Whatever , I like to live dangerously, and on return I hope to be out of the UK until it is all over.
Stay away from Stonehaven. The Chippy there claims to be the one who originated the deep fried mars bar. I am not actually sure if it even exists anywhere else.
Absolutely off topic, but I am still hoping to avoid the never ending EU ref topic. Just back from a climbing trip in Nepal, and standard fare in the tea houses was a Snicker pie, or a Mars bar pie, I avoided both, but... I face new dangers,tomorrow, I start the NC500 tour of Scotland, can I avoid the battered Mars bar, and what if I come face to face with Malcolm. Whatever , I like to live dangerously, and on return I hope to be out of the UK until it is all over.
Stay away from Stonehaven. The Chippy there claims to be the one who originated the deep fried mars bar. I am not actually sure if it even exists anywhere else.
It is advertised on the Royal Mile in Edinburgh but I think it is just a tourist gimmick. Never seem anyone eating one.
Absolutely off topic, but I am still hoping to avoid the never ending EU ref topic. Just back from a climbing trip in Nepal, and standard fare in the tea houses was a Snicker pie, or a Mars bar pie, I avoided both, but... I face new dangers,tomorrow, I start the NC500 tour of Scotland, can I avoid the battered Mars bar, and what if I come face to face with Malcolm. Whatever , I like to live dangerously, and on return I hope to be out of the UK until it is all over.
Snickers melted and served over vanilla icecream is well worth trying. Or maybe I am just having Proustian memory flashbacks.
I cannot see Trump getting past the Electoral College, but even if he gets through he will be hobbled by Congress and Senate so would get frustrated pretty quickly.
I think Hillary will be an excellent President.
A Congress and Senate that frustrates the will of anti-Establishment President Trump would be looking at huge losses when the voters next get a say.
Not surprised by the close polls. The US is ridiculously polarised and voters will veer towards their nearest option. I expect most self-identifying Republicans will end up voting for Trump, because Hillary just presses all their "see red" buttons. The Democrats need to demonstrate that they have a better way to fight Trump than the Republicans did. And if they try and fight the Trump that was put forward to win the nomination, then they are going to look very flat-footed as Trump reinvents himself as the owner of the middle ground.
I posted this two weeks ago but, given the theme, I thought it might be of interest:
"Completely O/T (and sorry for the long message).
Re Trump: I spent a few weeks with my in-laws in California (black, middle class Democrats; my wife is - pardon the pun - the black sheep of the family as the lone Republican). Several thoughts:
1. We underestimate how many people hate Hilary. "Unpopular" is not half of it. My sister-in-law, who is Democrat as they come, is voting for Trump because she hates Hilary; many of her friends feel the same; her son is pro-Sanders - he won't vote Trump but doubtful he will vote HRC. Women under 45 do not have that bond.
2. Not all Hispanics are the same. It is a lazy assumption. A Mexican immigrant on the West Coast and a Cuban-American in Florida are not the same. Notice Trump attacks "The Mexicans". Trump knows there are more votes in attacking Central American immigration than in standing up for them (he won't win California and he can lose Nevada). But that does not mean he has given up on Florida.
3. I was impressed by Trump's acumen: while I was there, two big political issues were North Carolina's transgender law on bathrooms and black anti-slave campaigner Harriet Tubman on the $20 bill. Trump opposed the first and wanted to keep Andrew Jackson on the front of the $20 bill. Why? The transgender issue fires up Sanders' supporters; as a few of them see Hillary as a bigger issue than Trump why alienate them? But Trump realises he will not get African-American voters re the $20 bill but can appeal further to the WWC who feel political correctness has gone too far.
4. Beware of "Shy Trumpsters": an anecdote - my wife's 21 yr old niece (black, university in San Francisco) is voting Trump; many of her friends are doing the same but will not say it publicly. We have heard others say the same.
Re Trump's road to 270 electoral votes:
1. I cannot see Trump losing any of Romney's states. The furore over the transgender law and companies boycotting NC has galvanised Republicans there. In Arizona, the Mexican Wall will win votes. That is 201.
2. Next is Florida. Trump knows the state like the back of his hand; his club was the first in Palm Beach to admit Jewish people, gays and Hispanics when all other clubs barred them; his daughters married into the Jewish faith so that will help him; and many of Florida's Hispanics do not associate themselves as Mexicans. He wins, he is at 230.
3. Then the Rustbelt. Hillary has underperformed polls. Given his anti-free trade stance, Trump would look for two of Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin. Let's say Ohio only, that is 248.
4. After that, NJ. Trump's highest scores are in White, Catholic states, which is NJ to a tee. Hillary goes down in NJ like a bag of sick. That is 262. He has a decent chance in NH - so 266.
5. All he needs then is one other tate to flip - Iowa e.g. and then there are states like PA and even NY which cannot be ruled out. "
On matters American, we've seen the natural consolidation of anti-Democrat and the bulk of GOP voters around the only candidate able to beat Clinton.
That'show it is with parties and their supporters. For all the animosity toward David Cameron and George Osborne, once (or if) the Conservatives choose a new leader, everyone will forget the harsh words and rally to the new leader.
As TSE said last night "We Love Power" and that is the raison d'etre for all political parties and the modus operandi of the Conservatives. Out of power, and especially between 1997 and 2005, the Conservatives were utterly irrelevant.
The Republican Party isn't in such a bad state as they have, apart from the first two Obama years, held the majority in Congress. Nonetheless, it's rare for the Republicans to be shut out of the White House for three successive terms and hasn't happened since the Roosevelt-Truman years.
3rd goal at Man u - I need a scorer or assist... who is it!!!
Bollocks... where are Lingard and Smalling when you need them.
Looks like victory to The White Rabbit..... congratulations!
I blame my having Hazard in too long and having to sell Kane 2x in the season to ensure he starting scoring all his goals once I'd done so. For the greater good.
3rd goal at Man u - I need a scorer or assist... who is it!!!
Bollocks... where are Lingard and Smalling when you need them.
Looks like victory to The White Rabbit..... congratulations!
I blame my having Hazard in too long and having to sell Kane 2x in the season to ensure he starting scoring all his goals once I'd done so. For the greater good.
Nonetheless, it's rare for the Republicans to be shut out of the White House for three successive terms and hasn't happened since the Roosevelt-Truman years.
Let it not be forgotten that Roosevelt/Truman is the only time the Republicans have lost three (or more, in that case five) successive presidential elections since they first fought an election in 1856. Moreover, on only four other occasions have they been out of the White House for more than four years.
Edit - in fact on a careful count I think they have been in power for 92 of those 160 years. A remarkable achievement by any standards, even though much of the time (particularly in the nineteenth century) they faced a Democratic congress.
I posted this two weeks ago but, given the theme, I thought it might be of interest:
"Completely O/T (and sorry for the long message).
Re Trump: I spent a few weeks with my in-laws in California (black, middle class Democrats; my wife is - pardon the pun - the black sheep of the family as the lone Republican). Several thoughts:
1. We underestimate how many people hate Hilary. "Unpopular" is not half of it. My sister-in-law, who is Democrat as they come, is voting for Trump because she hates Hilary; many of her friends feel the same; her son is pro-Sanders - he won't vote Trump but doubtful he will vote HRC. Women under 45 do not have that bond.
2. Not all Hispanics are the same. It is a lazy assumption. A Mexican immigrant on the West Coast and a Cuban-American in Florida are not the same. Notice Trump attacks "The Mexicans". Trump knows there are more votes in attacking Central American immigration than in standing up for them (he won't win California and he can lose Nevada). But that does not mean he has given up on Florida.
3. I was impressed by Trump's acumen: while I was there, two big political issues were North Carolina's transgender law on bathrooms and black anti-slave campaigner Harriet Tubman on the $20 bill. Trump opposed the first and wanted to keep Andrew Jackson on the front of the $20 bill. Why? The transgender issue fires up Sanders' supporters; as a few...
4. Beware of "Shy Trumpsters": an anecdote - my wife's 21 yr old niece...
Re Trump's road to 270 electoral votes:
1. I cannot see Trump losing any of Romney's states. The furore over the transgender law and companies boycotting NC has galvanised Republicans there. In Arizona, the Mexican Wall will win votes. That is 201.
2. Next is Florida. Trump knows the state like the back of his hand; his club was the first in Palm Beach to admit Jewish people, gays and Hispanics when all other clubs barred them; his daughters married into the Jewish faith so that will help him; and many of Florida's Hispanics do not associate themselves as Mexicans. He wins, he is at 230.
3. Then the Rustbelt. Hillary has underperformed polls. Given his anti-free trade stance, Trump would look for two of Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin. Let's say Ohio only, that is 248.
4. After that, NJ. Trump's highest scores are in White, Catholic states, which is NJ to a tee. Hillary goes down in NJ like a bag of sick. That is 262. He has a decent chance in NH - so 266.
5. All he needs then is one other tate to flip - Iowa e.g. and then there are states like PA and even NY which cannot be ruled out. "
Missed this the first time - thanks for such an interesting post.
Based on nothing but gut reaction to the weakness of HRC as a candidate and Trump's media savvy, I tipped him to win a few weeks ago. Can't see how that tip has got weaker....
I posted this two weeks ago but, given the theme, I thought it might be of interest:
2. Not all Hispanics are the same. It is a lazy assumption. A Mexican immigrant on the West Coast and a Cuban-American in Florida are not the same. Notice Trump attacks "The Mexicans". Trump knows there are more votes in attacking Central American immigration than in standing up for them (he won't win California and he can lose Nevada). But that does not mean he has given up on Florida.
2. Next is Florida. Trump knows the state like the back of his hand; his club was the first in Palm Beach to admit Jewish people, gays and Hispanics when all other clubs barred them; his daughters married into the Jewish faith so that will help him; and many of Florida's Hispanics do not associate themselves as Mexicans. He wins, he is at 230.
Trump is polling the lowest ever figure for a Republican nominee amongst Cuban-Americans in Florida.
That;s done it... Bournemouth take away my clean sheet points... it's a Leicester level winning margin!!!
Still as a consolation there's all of us who finish above TSE...
I'm sorry for laughing... being robbed of your clean sheet because of an own goal! Let's be thankful that didn't decide the winner, it would have been too much...
It was not Islamophobic to ask legitimate questions of Khan who, it is worth remembering, apologised for giving the impression that he agreed with extremists' views and for his use of what he accepted was a racist term ("Uncle Toms"). Khan accepted that he had on occasion been unwise in his choice of language and associates and, to his credit, showed rather more self-awareness than other members of his party.
He now deserves a chance to show us what he is capable of.
Would that his party leader had the same self-awareness, self-criticism and willingness to admit mistakes.
Well, talking of willingness to admit mistakes, numerous Conservatives have admitted that the campaign against Khan attempting guilt by association ("we accept that he's not an Islamist extremist but...") was (a) unpleasant and (b) ludicrous. It would be nice if the same Conservatives advised against use of precisely the same tactics against Corbyn - "we accept that he's not a terrorist sympathiser/anti-semitic himself but..."
The reality is that most politicians have sometimes appeared on platforms with people who have said something dodgy, and quite possibly been polite to them, appeared in a photo with them, and so on. You have the chance to express your views, so you express them. That's why I argued in favour of sanctions on Iran on Press TV - since they were willing to broadcast that view (because, I think, they saw them as a lesser evil to military intervention), fine. Every politician knows that, which is why the Conservative campaign was so discreditable.
As they admit. But they'll do it again.
He clearly was an IRA sympathiser.
The current leadership of Labour are up to their necks in turning a blind eye to terrorists, bigots and extremists. They are in a pinch because the wider public is now noticing this, costing Labour support, but condemning the extremists will cost them core Labour votes. I can see why Nick is trying to pressure people from speaking out so Labour can continue sitting on the fence between decent people and the zealots. It won't work. Like the Democrats in the 1960s, who had straddled southern racists and northern liberals, a choice must be made.
Is it worth opining that we should have much sympathy for our errant colony even if it declared UDI?
After all they appear to be headed for a Trump presidency though it could be worse it could be Hilary. That said it could be worse than Hilary... it could be Trump.
Seriously America... 300 million people and it comes down to these two?
dah dit dit, dah dah dah, dit,dit dit dit/dah dit,dah dah dah,dah/dit,dit dit dit dah, dit,dit dah dit,dah dit dah dah,dah dah dah,dah dit,dit/dah dit dit,dah dah dah/dah dah,dah dah dah,dit dah dit,dit dit dit,dit/dit dit dah dah dit dit
Nonetheless, it's rare for the Republicans to be shut out of the White House for three successive terms and hasn't happened since the Roosevelt-Truman years.
Let it not be forgotten that Roosevelt/Truman is the only time the Republicans have lost three (or more, in that case five) successive presidential elections since they first fought an election in 1856. Moreover, on only four other occasions have they been out of the White House for more than four years.
OT. I just heard heard that in one day the petition to keep BBC recipes has reached 135,000. It puts Guido's silly rants into perspective. A thought occurred to me. The BBC were sure to have known the popularity of their recipes and the reaction to ending them. Could this have been a ruse to show Wittingdale their muscle?
OT. I just heard heard that in one day the petition to keep BBC recipes has reached 135,000. It puts Guido's silly rants into perspective. A thought occurred to me. The BBC were sure to have known the popularity of their recipes and the reaction to ending them. Could this have been a ruse to show Wittingdale their muscle?
Apologies if this has already been mentioned.
It's a bleeding stump stratergy and even Guido is against it as that would leave Jamie Oliver's sugar laden recipes top of the pops on Google searches.
Alistair: "Trump is polling the lowest ever figure for a Republican nominee amongst Cuban-Americans in Florida."
Yet it is still a dead heat in Florida.
A Cuban-American in Florida would rather die than be compared to a Mexican - the Cuban-Americans came (generally) from the lighter skinned, wealthier classes; the immigration from Central America is mainly from poorer groups.
That;s done it... Bournemouth take away my clean sheet points... it's a Leicester level winning margin!!!
Still as a consolation there's all of us who finish above TSE...
I'm sorry for laughing... being robbed of your clean sheet because of an own goal! Let's be thankful that didn't decide the winner, it would have been too much...
I take it that you manage the Burtby Babes?
If so, Congratulations.
Anyone up for a game of Diplomacy? Nothing like European warfare to get a person ready for the referendum.
Trump has been the secure nominee for weeks, Clinton is still fighting a civil war in her party against the Yanks own version of Momentum. The self serving left that want to jump into another political party and control it after years of actually opposing and deriding them, the Dems weren't stupid enough to let them so they had a hissy fit and want to take the whole thing down with their candidate.
At the moment Trump is the only one that is able to actually campaign, so it is a little soon to say he is closing the gap in any meaningful way.
Absolutely off topic, but I am still hoping to avoid the never ending EU ref topic. Just back from a climbing trip in Nepal, and standard fare in the tea houses was a Snicker pie, or a Mars bar pie, I avoided both, but... I face new dangers,tomorrow, I start the NC500 tour of Scotland, can I avoid the battered Mars bar, and what if I come face to face with Malcolm. Whatever , I like to live dangerously, and on return I hope to be out of the UK until it is all over.
Stay away from Stonehaven. The Chippy there claims to be the one who originated the deep fried mars bar. I am not actually sure if it even exists anywhere else.
It does but isn't quite as prevalent as the stereotype might suggest.
Aberdeen has gone one better and deep fries Ferrero Rochers, though I believe this only happens during the festive period.
Alistair: "Trump is polling the lowest ever figure for a Republican nominee amongst Cuban-Americans in Florida."
Yet it is still a dead heat in Florida.
A Cuban-American in Florida would rather die than be compared to a Mexican - the Cuban-Americans came (generally) from the lighter skinned, wealthier classes; the immigration from Central America is mainly from poorer groups.
One of the things that's likely to be tested to destruction in this campaign is the idea that demographics and identity politics will determine future partisan electoral success.
Alistair: "Trump is polling the lowest ever figure for a Republican nominee amongst Cuban-Americans in Florida."
Yet it is still a dead heat in Florida.
A Cuban-American in Florida would rather die than be compared to a Mexican - the Cuban-Americans came (generally) from the lighter skinned, wealthier classes; the immigration from Central America is mainly from poorer groups.
Hilary's vote is still split as she is in a nomination contest. Back when Trump was in a nomination contest as well Hillary lead him easily.
That's a bit boring, that's just his normal hotel room isn't it? Since mortgage payments are not an claimable expense but hotel stays are lots of MPs have started renting their London homes and staying in hotels.
Alistair: "Trump is polling the lowest ever figure for a Republican nominee amongst Cuban-Americans in Florida."
Yet it is still a dead heat in Florida.
A Cuban-American in Florida would rather die than be compared to a Mexican - the Cuban-Americans came (generally) from the lighter skinned, wealthier classes; the immigration from Central America is mainly from poorer groups.
Hilary's vote is still split as she is in a nomination contest. Back when Trump was in a nomination contest as well Hillary lead him easily.
It's not split, Hillary gets already about 85% of democratic voters in every poll, everyone expects that she will be the nominee for months now.
I posted this two weeks ago but, given the theme, I thought it might be of interest:
"Completely O/T (and sorry for the long message).
Re Trump: I spent a few weeks with my in-laws in California (black, middle class Democrats; my wife is - pardon the pun - the black sheep of the family as the lone Republican). Several thoughts:
1. We underestimate how many people hate Hilary. "Unpopular" is not half of it. My sister-in-law, who is Democrat as they come, is voting for Trump because she hates Hilary; many of her friends feel the same; her son is pro-Sanders - he won't vote Trump but doubtful he will vote HRC. Women under 45 do not have that bond.
2. Not all Hispanics are the same. It is a lazy assumption. A Mexican immigrant on the West Coast and a Cuban-American in Florida are not the same. Notice Trump attacks "The Mexicans". Trump knows there are more votes in attacking Central American immigration than in standing up for them (he won't win California and he can lose Nevada). But that does not mean he has given up on Florida.
3. I was impressed by Trump's acumen: while I was there, two big political issues were North Carolina's transgen
4. Beware of "Shy Trumpsters": an anecdote - my wife's 21 yr old niece (black, university in San Francisco) is voting Trump; many of her friends are doing the same but will not say it publicly. We have heard others say the same.
Re Trump's road to 270 electoral votes:
1. I cannot see Trump losing any of Romney's states. The furore over the transgender law and companies boycotting NC has galvanised Republicans there. In Arizona, the Mexican Wall will win votes. That is 201.
2. Next is Florida. Trump knows the state like the back of his hand; his club was the first in Palm Beach to admit Jewish people, gays and Hispanics when all other clubs barred them; his daughters married into the Jewish faith so that will help him; and many of Florida's Hispanics do not associate themselves as Mexicans. He wins, he is at 230.
3. Then the Rustbelt. Hillary has underperformed polls. Given his anti-free trade stance, Trump would look for two of Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin. Let's say Ohio only, that is 248.
4. After that, NJ. Trump's highest scores are in White, Catholic states, which is NJ to a tee. Hillary goes down in NJ like a bag of sick. That is 262. He has a decent chance in NH - so 266.
5. All he needs then is one other tate to flip - Iowa e.g. and then there are states like PA and even NY which cannot be ruled out. "
Comments
I think private sector membership runs at about 10%, and public sector unionised employees outnumber private sector ones something like 2:1. Public sector membership is something like 75%,
There is £20 at 3.25 for anyone that wants it - she's not favourite on demographics but... was ahead in the only poll by 15 points.
I wouldn't put too much faith in a single poll but she must be worth £2 at 3-1 !
Clinton 38 .. Trump 40
Sanders 42 .. Trump 39
Note - 3 point underpoll of Hispanics.
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_AZ_51716.pdf
costingcosying (autocorrect had a Freudian slip there) up to loathsome scumbags. But Livingstone has been openly making racist remarks about Jews for years, but he seems to continue getting away with it because as you say the Jews are now regardwe as oppressors. Only today the Morning Star was haranguing Labour for being too cowardly to stand up to international Jewry for fear of being called antisemitic. And I'm willing to bet they didn't even think of the irony of what they were saying.Leave the west and things are very different - as they are in ethnic communities in the west that strongly cling to non western social values (including Christian communities not just Islam)
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/05/melania-trump-donald-not-hitler-223277
I'm finding it hard to keep track
What is it with politicians and their obsession with comparing people to Hitler?
maybe just
One assist
anything from Lingard or Smalling.....
squeaky bum time in the PB Fantasy league
I am not sure that TSE can see so far up...
http://uk.businessinsider.com/donald-trumps-ex-wife-once-said-he-kept-a-book-of-hitlers-speeches-by-his-bed-2015-8
http://morsecode.scphillips.com/translator.html
"In the Vanity Fair article, Ivana Trump told a friend that her husband's cousin, John Walter "clicks his heels and says, 'Heil Hitler," when visiting Trump's office."
Though, unlike Trump, Hitler was an admirer of Islam...
Not surprised by the close polls. The US is ridiculously polarised and voters will veer towards their nearest option. I expect most self-identifying Republicans will end up voting for Trump, because Hillary just presses all their "see red" buttons. The Democrats need to demonstrate that they have a better way to fight Trump than the Republicans did. And if they try and fight the Trump that was put forward to win the nomination, then they are going to look very flat-footed as Trump reinvents himself as the owner of the middle ground.
Test - can we post images?
"Completely O/T (and sorry for the long message).
Re Trump: I spent a few weeks with my in-laws in California (black, middle class Democrats; my wife is - pardon the pun - the black sheep of the family as the lone Republican). Several thoughts:
1. We underestimate how many people hate Hilary. "Unpopular" is not half of it. My sister-in-law, who is Democrat as they come, is voting for Trump because she hates Hilary; many of her friends feel the same; her son is pro-Sanders - he won't vote Trump but doubtful he will vote HRC. Women under 45 do not have that bond.
2. Not all Hispanics are the same. It is a lazy assumption. A Mexican immigrant on the West Coast and a Cuban-American in Florida are not the same. Notice Trump attacks "The Mexicans". Trump knows there are more votes in attacking Central American immigration than in standing up for them (he won't win California and he can lose Nevada). But that does not mean he has given up on Florida.
3. I was impressed by Trump's acumen: while I was there, two big political issues were North Carolina's transgender law on bathrooms and black anti-slave campaigner Harriet Tubman on the $20 bill. Trump opposed the first and wanted to keep Andrew Jackson on the front of the $20 bill. Why? The transgender issue fires up Sanders' supporters; as a few of them see Hillary as a bigger issue than Trump why alienate them? But Trump realises he will not get African-American voters re the $20 bill but can appeal further to the WWC who feel political correctness has gone too far.
4. Beware of "Shy Trumpsters": an anecdote - my wife's 21 yr old niece (black, university in San Francisco) is voting Trump; many of her friends are doing the same but will not say it publicly. We have heard others say the same.
Re Trump's road to 270 electoral votes:
1. I cannot see Trump losing any of Romney's states. The furore over the transgender law and companies boycotting NC has galvanised Republicans there. In Arizona, the Mexican Wall will win votes. That is 201.
2. Next is Florida. Trump knows the state like the back of his hand; his club was the first in Palm Beach to admit Jewish people, gays and Hispanics when all other clubs barred them; his daughters married into the Jewish faith so that will help him; and many of Florida's Hispanics do not associate themselves as Mexicans. He wins, he is at 230.
3. Then the Rustbelt. Hillary has underperformed polls. Given his anti-free trade stance, Trump would look for two of Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin. Let's say Ohio only, that is 248.
4. After that, NJ. Trump's highest scores are in White, Catholic states, which is NJ to a tee. Hillary goes down in NJ like a bag of sick. That is 262. He has a decent chance in NH - so 266.
5. All he needs then is one other tate to flip - Iowa e.g. and then there are states like PA and even NY which cannot be ruled out. "
On matters American, we've seen the natural consolidation of anti-Democrat and the bulk of GOP voters around the only candidate able to beat Clinton.
That'show it is with parties and their supporters. For all the animosity toward David Cameron and George Osborne, once (or if) the Conservatives choose a new leader, everyone will forget the harsh words and rally to the new leader.
As TSE said last night "We Love Power" and that is the raison d'etre for all political parties and the modus operandi of the Conservatives. Out of power, and especially between 1997 and 2005, the Conservatives were utterly irrelevant.
The Republican Party isn't in such a bad state as they have, apart from the first two Obama years, held the majority in Congress. Nonetheless, it's rare for the Republicans to be shut out of the White House for three successive terms and hasn't happened since the Roosevelt-Truman years.
Bollocks... where are Lingard and Smalling when you need them.
Looks like victory to The White Rabbit..... congratulations!
I blame my having Hazard in too long and having to sell Kane 2x in the season to ensure he starting scoring all his goals once I'd done so. For the greater good.
It's getting very hard not to vote leave given who 'Remain' are dredging their cellars for as support.
Still as a consolation there's all of us who finish above TSE...
Edit - in fact on a careful count I think they have been in power for 92 of those 160 years. A remarkable achievement by any standards, even though much of the time (particularly in the nineteenth century) they faced a Democratic congress.
Based on nothing but gut reaction to the weakness of HRC as a candidate and Trump's media savvy, I tipped him to win a few weeks ago. Can't see how that tip has got weaker....
It's small consolation for not having Norwich players in my side next season
The chap one place and four points behind me had Smalling me in his team.
Saved me from finishing 9th.
IIRC Paul Ryan wasn't even listed with the bookies when he was nominated.
After all they appear to be headed for a Trump presidency though it could be worse it could be Hilary. That said it could be worse than Hilary... it could be Trump.
Seriously America... 300 million people and it comes down to these two?
It's going to be Sarah Palin
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/content/dam/news/2016/05/17/1805-MATT-GALLERY-WEB-P1-small_trans++qVzuuqpFlyLIwiB6NTmJwfSVWeZ_vEN7c6bHu2jJnT8.png
Whomever they nominate, I don't lose any money
(nor do I make any money, heh)
Apologies if this has already been mentioned.
If the European Union was a song, what song would it be?
Please select one response only.
John Lennon: Imagine
Amy Whinehouse: Back to Black
Alanis Morrissette: Ironic
Queen: We are the champions
No doubt: Don’t speak
Don’t know / not sure
I don't think you have anything to worry about Sarah.
Yet it is still a dead heat in Florida.
A Cuban-American in Florida would rather die than be compared to a Mexican - the Cuban-Americans came (generally) from the lighter skinned, wealthier classes; the immigration from Central America is mainly from poorer groups.
If so, Congratulations.
Anyone up for a game of Diplomacy? Nothing like European warfare to get a person ready for the referendum.
At the moment Trump is the only one that is able to actually campaign, so it is a little soon to say he is closing the gap in any meaningful way.
Aberdeen has gone one better and deep fries Ferrero Rochers, though I believe this only happens during the festive period.
1) 2016 Local Elections
2) 1975 EC referendum
3) 2011 AV Referendum
4) 2015 General Election
5) 2016 EU Referendum
6) 2014 Scottish Independence Referendum
Clearly I ranked the 2011 AV referendum as the most important
5) 2016 EU Referendum
2) 1975 EC referendum
4) 2015 General Election
1) 2016 Local Elections
3) 2011 AV Referendum
Something about McDonnell rubs me up the wrong way much more than Corbyn.
http://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=celex:32011R1333
On bananas.
https://twitter.com/zoeimogen/status/732262965882306560
For the full Judas Prince Buster did a ska track called "30 pieces of silver"
https://twitter.com/JasonKuznicki/status/732638854767861760
Explains a lot.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1PRgWol5BrY
http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/ky/Dem
Hillary 61
Sanders 30
BTW Another really interesting thread header from you earlier. Thank you.
https://twitter.com/sundersays/status/732681828826513408
Hillary 50
Sanders 39
Hillary 50
Sanders 40
I don't know if those are postal votes that they are counting.
http://eagletonpoll.rutgers.edu/rutgers-eagleton-2016-presidential-election-Apr2016/