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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Clinton-Trump battle could be a lot closer than anybody
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Clinton-Trump battle could be a lot closer than anybody thought
The polling average in the chart from PoliticalWire tells its own story. This is beginning to look as though next November’s election is set to be very tight.
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A new one from New Mexico also points to that:
https://twitter.com/politics_polls/status/732591212675223553
Obama won N.Mexico by 53-43 in 2012, Gary Johnson who is the ex-Governor there got his best result with 3% in 2012.
A note, N.Mexico is majority Hispanic.
We need more state polls, since this is about the Electoral College.
My former estimates were that Trump needs to be within 4 points of Hillary for him to win the E.C. , I want to see if my estimate is correct.
They are way ahead of you. If you go on trends and not headline polls this has been apparent for a while.
If he pulls ahead in the polls then panic will really set in on the Democratic side.
Trump as the presumptive nominee has got the bounce as inclined supporters begin to accept the inevitability of the convention formality and the much of the rancour of the nomination process subsides.
Nationwide polls are a good marker but it's the swing state polls from reputable pollsters employing the correct demographics that are the key to assessing the race.
The other marker for PBers will be ARSE4US
I still can't quite believe we are in a situation where Donald Trump might win the US presidency. I love the US and all it stands for but they really are going off the deep end if they elect Trump.
If he starts to look good in Florida perhaps I'll think again.
"So when Osborne says belief in Brexit is economically illiterate, he is talking about Lawson, Lamont, Lilley, Portillo and Howard. Is that really a notion he wants to put in the public’s mind — that half or more of Conservative leading finance spokesmen are “economically illiterate”?" http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/05/17/george-osborne-may-live-to-regret-treating-his-former-friends-wi/
Everything Hillary says or does is focus grouped and polled and tested to death, and it shows in her leaden performances, whereas Trump just goes for it. This scares the life out of the Clinton campaign. Also Bill is not the smasheroo they expected - the voice is hoarse, he frequently goes badly off message, and he looks old and infrm.
This could be my finest ever PB moment...
"C. Presentation
The bananas must be presented in hands or clusters (parts of hands) of at least four fingers. Bananas may also be presented as single fingers.
Clusters with not more than two missing fingers are allowed, provided that the stalk is not torn but cleanly cut, without damage to the neighbouring fingers.
Not more than one cluster of three fingers with the same characteristics as the other fruit in the package may be present per row.
In the producing regions, bananas may be marketed by the stem."
http://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=celex:32011R1333&utm_content=bufferc3687&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer
Hillary for instance is focusing her efforts in there states:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/against-trump-clinton-is-preparing-an-expanded-list-of-battleground-states/2016/05/12/cfe8e3b4-17b4-11e6-924d-838753295f9a_story.html
https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/732283327332417536
Michigan
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Virginia
Nevada
Florida
Now some states are not a surprise, Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania have already been proven by recent polls to be problematic for Hillary.
The surprise here are the states that should not be problematic for her, Michigan, Virginia and Wisconsin should not have normally been on the list given past state polling, Nevada should also not have been on the list based on demographics.
And what about the states that should be on that list but aren't, like Colorado and Iowa, if she is worried about Nevada and Wisconsin then those should have been on the list, maybe they are a lost cause for her.
This referendum can't be over soon enough for me. So many reputations are being ruined on the back of this. Some of the comments made by various people will be hung round their necks forever. The media for one, will make sure of that, they will have enough material to last them a lifetime (or until the next referendum)!!
Of course Cameron will be gone anyway if he loses the EU referendum, so might avoid the problem but Sadiq Khan, newly elected mayor of arguably the worlds most powerful city could be wishing he'd kept his gob shut.
http://www.pewhispanic.org/fact-sheets/2016-state-election-fact-sheets/latinos-in-the-2016-election-new-mexico/
Similarly, Hillary ahead with Hispanics by 37% implies The Donald is doing better there, too, with 33%.
So his only relative drop in performance for the GOP is with white women. I have yet to be convinced that their distaste for the man is going to convert on a 1:1 ratio to voting for Hillary.
However the principle is true. Follow the cash and follow it again the closer the election is.
We are also still nearly 6 months to the GE.
Romney 206 EV
Obama 332 EV
Romney regularly polled 12% AA in the lead up to the election and finished with 6%. Ditto Hispanics 35-40% in polls but 27% in the election.
Americans would never have elected a Wall Street guy just 3 years after Wall Street crashed the economy, that he had the charisma of a plank of wood also didn't help.
So what if Obama was mediocre, Romney was the epitome of all that went wrong.
Between mediocre and bad, voters selected mediocre.
In 2016 judging by the polls it's a choice between bad and bad, voters feel that whoever gets elected they are going to get shafted anyway.
Trump, on the other hand, continues to be seriously underrated. What he has achieved against senators, governors, favourite sons and so called heavy weights of the Republican party is truly remarkable. Some of this just shows how weak the party now is, like the business man he is he saw a weakness and took advantage. But some of it also reflects a deep disgust in the American political process. To ride that wave he really could not design a better opponent than Hillary.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2015/07/10/the-demographics-of-2016-look-brutal-for-republicans/
Trump doing worse in safe Republican states masks his strength in swing states and safe Democratic states.
Losing 30 points from Utah and gaining 5 in Ohio means that you still win both even if nationally you are down a bit.
If anyone should be "wishing he'd kept his gob shut" it's Trump. I suspect he knows that which is why is trying to wriggle out of what he said.
This is going to be very tight.
But he needs to either do unusually well among new (mainly young) voters, or he needs to win millions of people who voted for Obama twice. These are the challenges I find it unlikely to see him climbing. So primaries are each sui generis; there haven't been enough to form reliable opinions about how voters behave in them, or even to codify the candidates. The individual candidate matters a lot. Some said Trump was a far-right candidate for his views on Muslims Hispanics women etc, but he was way more popular among centrist and moderate primary voters, and his positions are closer to Democrats than mainstream Republicans are, but also he did best in Deep South states. Hard to draw all that into a coherent mental model of The Trump Voter.
Now he reaches the point at which normal party preferences matter a lot more, when Republicans will generally vote Republican (some after a bit of a strop) and Democrats likewise.
Nick Cohen @NickCohen4 10m10 minutes ago
I may be wrong. The Labour Party, great moral movement that it is, has refused to publish the full report.
Dan Hodges @DPJHodges 21m21 minutes ago
Labour doesn't have institutional racism. It has cultural racism. Which is better. Apparently.
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or for another view
Stephen Pollard @stephenpollard 4m4 minutes ago
Reflect on this. Labour peer is appointed to investigate allegations of antisemitism. When she finds they happened, NEC refuses to publish.
Very few swing state polls (SO FAR) have shown him leading. Instead, they have on average been normally, boringly consistent with his national performance.
If he wins, the story will be coming from behind among the electorate at large, rather than a too-clever story of a wrong-way popular vote result and a geographic realignment.
While the election is very likely to get tighter, what will make her tough to beat is that a situation where she goes behind in the polls and is getting a heavy barrage of attacks could itself boost her campaign. In the 2008 primaries, whenever she was on the verge of getting knocked out, she really stepped up her performances on the campaign trail and became the "never-say-die underdog who refuses to quit no matter what the haters say". And whenever that happened, voters (especially women) warmed to her a lot more, or atleast respected and admired her more. A similar thing could happen this time if the election gets very tight, especially if Trump goes overboard with his personal attacks on her.
https://twitter.com/PlatoSays/status/732630616827691008
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/pennsylvania-could-be-an-electoral-tipping-point/
In a letter to the Evening Standard marking International Day Against Homophobia, they hailed the EU’s role in promoting human rights worldwide and claimed that it would all be put at risk by a Brexit.
“A lot has been achieved but there’s still more to be done,” said the letter, whose signatories include Labour shadow business secretary Angela Eagle, Tory Scottish Secretary David Mundell and the former EastEnders actor Lord Cashman, a founding member of Stonewall.'
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/thirty-gay-politicians-urge-lgbti-community-to-unite-behind-remain-banner-a3250006.html
However both the AA and Hispanic demographic will be higher this year in several swing states.
https://twitter.com/Vote_LeaveMedia/status/732630812085080066
The difference between the two models is mainly about safety.
The UK model has more Safety requirements. The other one has fewer.
It told me:
1. The EU is not responsible for all new regulations.
2. The UK government can impose its own regulations. In this respect, this one is more stringent [ but good ].
Lord Cashman said: “We must use our influence to promote LGBTI rights across Europe... The United Kingdom is best placed to do this as part of the EU." Apparently
The nearest equivalent to this I could imagine here is a two horse race between Nigel Farage and Polly Toynbee.
If that was the choice even most of the eurpophile Tories would start coming on side for Farage.
Who knew?
Normally, Texas would not be discussed in a Presidential election. But this is not a normal one. Mr Trump has not exactly gone out to court Hispanics. He has also offended Cruz big time. 28% of eligible voters are Hispanics
Trump 40 Clinton 38
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/05/mccain-in-deep-trouble-in-gop-primary-trump-clinton-close-in-az.html
So, all told, significant shifts in voting patterns within the white electorate, if they happen, will swamp the effects of the demographic changes since 2012. We can expect Trump to do better than Romney with white men and worse with white women. The questions then are 'how big a change in each?' and 'what is going to happen to white turnout?' following the big drop off Romney achieved.
https://www.hillaryclinton.com/contribute/donate/official-woman-card/
Somehow it wouldn't surprise me if she ends up having a commitment to protect Obamacare engraved in stone.