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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Mortimer with a tip for the more adventurous gamblers

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  • Options

    Fair to say, Mirror readers aren't very keen on Cameron

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/david-cameron-writes-mirror-dont-7978638

    Hahahahaha
    "BeppeSapone
    Congratulations on your valiant efforts, Mr Cameron , grovelling to 27 heads of state to get their permission to allow you to knock 5p off a packet of tampons ( I have the commemorative T shirt)."
    And the captions! The pictures of Cameron with David Milliband, with Merkel and Hollande!
    The Mirror have done this as total clickbait to fire up their readers.
    Why would having a man speak on behalf of REMAIN but trusted by only 11% of Labour voters be expected to go down well?
  • Options
    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,061
    Still.

    bollocks.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,033
    The Moggster speaks (already making plans for a Remain victory)

    Gallantry needed if Tories are to reunite after EU referendum. The chances of a Brexiter being party leader grow if the UK stays in bloc, writes Jacob Rees-Mogg

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/9ba10508-1793-11e6-b197-a4af20d5575e.html#axzz48fJyKF4F
  • Options
    runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    @Topping

    It is not my business to correct Remain's mistakes. For example, the second link you post from Peterborough is the boss of a large company telling it how it is - by definition, from social group AB.

    On unemployment, it's perfectly possible for official figures to fall whilst wages remain stagnant, and they experience unwanted social change in their local area with no tools to escape or take advantage of it.

    I think for you immigration isn't an issue at all whereas you fear your finances might be affected if we Leave. For others, it is the precise opposite.

    Static real wages for what the Americans call "the middle class" (not our definition) are a feature of almost every Western economy now. High levels of immigration are one cause (though certainly not the only one).
    Real wages are static in Japan, despite close to zero immigration.
    So is real GDP, of course.
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,043
    Charles said:

    It is far from clear that that EU immigration has driven down wages or increased the burden on public services:

    http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit05.pdf

    By definition an increase in population increases the burden on public services, unless the immigrants are fully funding the capacity expansion. I believe the figures most people quote are current spending/revenue only not including capital investment

    If we had zero immigration our population would still rise as people are living longer. As a result, the proportion of non-productive Brits is increasing. So the government - like previous ones - is using immigrants to help drive the growth needed to pay down the deficit, fund public services and keep taxes as low as possible. If we are not going to do that anymore, what will be the alternative - assuming we don't introduce euthanasia?
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388

    Still.

    bollocks.

    I assume you're holding out for a Lingard hat-trick?
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,684
    edited May 2016
    Patrick said:



    A hedge fund manager was outraged by the price of getting his leaking kitchen taps replaced, grumbling 'I don't earn that bloody much'. 'Nor did I when I was a hedge fund manager' quipped the plumber.

    Lol, the electrician I was talking about earlier was a data analyst for one of the big City banks, he now makes more as an electrician. :O
  • Options
    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822

    Still.

    bollocks.

    This is getting serious. 24hrs of really irked. :open_mouth:
  • Options
    WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838

    Wanderer said:

    Anyone know when we are likely to see polls this week?

    ICM online poll early on this week (EURef only)

    Ipsos Mori phone poll - Wed-Fri (Westminster VI and EU Ref)

    ComRes phone poll sometime this week (EURef for sure, possibly Westminster VI too)

    Possibly ICM phone poll earlier on this week (Definitely Westminster VI and maybe EURef polling)

    We might see a YouGov poll this week, and hopefully a Opinium poll this weekend. (Westminster VI and EURef polling with both)
    Thank you.

    If the Betfair Leave drift is based on the expectation of good polling for Remain we may see a reaction if that good polling doesn't materialise.
  • Options
    WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838

    Charles said:

    It is far from clear that that EU immigration has driven down wages or increased the burden on public services:

    http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit05.pdf

    By definition an increase in population increases the burden on public services, unless the immigrants are fully funding the capacity expansion. I believe the figures most people quote are current spending/revenue only not including capital investment

    If we had zero immigration our population would still rise as people are living longer. As a result, the proportion of non-productive Brits is increasing. So the government - like previous ones - is using immigrants to help drive the growth needed to pay down the deficit, fund public services and keep taxes as low as possible. If we are not going to do that anymore, what will be the alternative - assuming we don't introduce euthanasia?
    Now there's a way for Remain to pitch for the grey vote.
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,043
    MaxPB said:

    Who on earth is dismissing people's concerns?

    If immigration increases competition for jobs why is that that most areas of high unemployment are areas of low immigration. Isn't it also the case that immigration increases demand and so may actually create jobs? There is clearly a perception that immigration from the EU is driving wages down and putting pressure on public services. But that does not mean the perception is correct. Don't you think that these things are worth looking into? Who would you like to do research if you believe it is too elitist for academics to do it?

    You only have to look at threads here for the sneering at people who are against high levels of immigration, I've probably done it myself at some point. It is an "unenlightened" view. Look at John Major just two days ago as another example of how Remain wants to shut down any kind of immigration talk.

    On who should study it, it's a difficult one, the ivory tower mob have too many preconceptions and not enough contact with the working class to really see the effects of immigration.

    Also, creating demand at lower rates is not a virtuous circle, it makes people poorer as less money is fed into the economy than before. Our GDP per capita is only 1% higher than it was pre-crash while the absolute GDP is 8% higher. People can just "feel" it. They are working harder than ever but getting very little extra for it. Taking into account wage growth at the top it is likely that the middle classes and working classes have less share of GDP than in 2008 so are still poorer than they were before the crash, working harder for a lower standard of living. It is why the government are raising the wages of the low paid by decree.

    How do we find out about the consequences - positive and negative - of immigration if we do not research the subject? Anecdote is not a good enough basis on which to develop long term solutions. Wage freezes have affected many more than low-skilled members of the working class. They have been across the board - except right at the very top, as you observe. I struggle to see how immigrants can be blamed for that.

  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,775
    What is the collective term for a triplet of losers?

    http://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/660/cpsprodpb/12764/production/_89702657_a.jpg
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,459
    edited May 2016
    MaxPB said:

    Patrick said:



    A hedge fund manager was outraged by the price of getting his leaking kitchen taps replaced, grumbling 'I don't earn that bloody much'. 'Nor did I when I was a hedge fund manager' quipped the plumber.

    Lol, the electrician I was talking about earlier was a data analyst for one of the big City banks, he now makes more as an electrician. :O
    While a few electricians and plumbers make a fortune, especially in London and where they are in short supply, the average plumber earns about £25, 000 the average city worker £80 000
    Otherwise graduates would be lining up to become electricians and plumbers not looking to join a City law firm or bank
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    So with all the battle bus stuff does that make a 2016 General election more likely?
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 19,138
    edited May 2016
    I may have missed something, but who are these "well-thought of celebrities" (if such a thing exists) who have come out for Remain?
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,906
    So Remain think that an American built aircraft, owned by an Irish airline, and carrying an Irish registration, makes a fitting backdrop to their latest witterings.

    Shouldn't they be supporting British airlines and aircraft manufacturing against overseas competition?
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,974
    edited May 2016
    Patrick said:



    A hedge fund manager was outraged by the price of getting his leaking kitchen taps replaced, grumbling 'I don't earn that bloody much'. 'Nor did I when I was a hedge fund manager' quipped the plumber.

    Nagging a Newcastle plumber to get my bathroom completed before visitors arrived

    'No can do mate - I'm taking the family to Cancun for two weeks. I'll try to fit you in when I come back, say in a month?'

    No wonder they hate Polish plumbers.....
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,347

    MaxPB said:

    Who on earth is dismissing people's concerns?

    If immigration increases competition for jobs why is that that most areas of high unemployment are areas of low immigration. Isn't it also the case that immigration increases demand and so may actually create jobs? There is clearly a perception that immigration from the EU is driving wages down and putting pressure on public services. But that does not mean the perception is correct. Don't you think that these things are worth looking into? Who would you like to do research if you believe it is too elitist for academics to do it?

    You only have to look at threads here for the sneering at people who are against high levels of immigration, I've probably done it myself at some point. It is an "unenlightened" view. Look at John Major just two days ago as another example of how Remain wants to shut down any kind of immigration talk.

    On who should study it, it's a difficult one, the ivory tower mob have too many preconceptions and not enough contact with the working class to really see the effects of immigration.

    Also, creating demand at lower rates is not a virtuous circle, it makes people poorer as less money is fed into the economy than before. Our GDP per capita is only 1% higher than it was pre-crash while the absolute GDP is 8% higher. People can just "feel" it. They are working harder than ever but getting very little extra for it. Taking into account wage growth at the top it is likely that the middle classes and working classes have less share of GDP than in 2008 so are still poorer than they were before the crash, working harder for a lower standard of living. It is why the government are raising the wages of the low paid by decree.

    How do we find out about the consequences - positive and negative - of immigration if we do not research the subject? Anecdote is not a good enough basis on which to develop long term solutions. Wage freezes have affected many more than low-skilled members of the working class. They have been across the board - except right at the very top, as you observe. I struggle to see how immigrants can be blamed for that.

    You assume people think straight and rationally. I find it surprising that you haven't realised yet that most people don't.

    They look around themselves and grasp something to blame. And that for many of them will be immigrants (possibly because they work with some, see some in the high street or even just a polish shop opening on the outskirts of town).
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    It is far from clear that that EU immigration has driven down wages or increased the burden on public services:

    http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit05.pdf

    Tell that to the plumber who gets told that his new day rate is decreasing to £120 because the new guy from Poland is going to do it for that price. I'm sure he'll read that study with great interest.

    Honestly, it's like the Remain side are sitting atop an ivory tower sneering down at anyone who dares bring up some of the negatives of immigration, and I'm not even that bothered by it.
    LOL we are feeling sorry for plumbers, now!??

    Do you have any idea how much plumbers charge these days?
    Well quite. The Great British plumber was a staple of 1970s comedy - uncontactable, waiting times of several months, spectacularly expensive, did a sh*t job. I don't want a return to any of that, thank you very much. My Polish chap Oleg is prompt with competitive rates, and his standards are impeccable. I'd never let some British cowboy near my sink again.
    I may be unusual but over the years I have had a load of work done on my house and I have consistently used the same British firm of builders, who have been excellent. The one time I used a Latvian electrician - against my better judgment but suggested by the provider of a light fitting, they made a total bog of the job - and the electrician who corrected it said that a large part of his work was correcting errors made by foreign electricians.

    My neighbours used some Romanian builders who were generally ok and friendly but, again, when it came to something specialist (in this case my neighbour's roof) they made a mess which had to be corrected.

    All purely anecdotal, obviously. But cheeseparing when it comes to the basics of building work seems to me to be a false economy. The one piece of advice is to make sure that you understand as much as possible about how work should be done properly before assessing builders. It is all too easy to be swayed by a shiny outside whereas what really counts is how well all the stuff that is hidden is done.

  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,684

    What is the collective term for a triplet of losers?

    http://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/660/cpsprodpb/12764/production/_89702657_a.jpg

    Ed Balls been eating all the pies at Norwich matches?
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,409

    So Remain think that an American built aircraft, owned by an Irish airline, and carrying an Irish registration, makes a fitting backdrop to their latest witterings.

    Shouldn't they be supporting British airlines and aircraft manufacturing against overseas competition?

    Who made the engines?
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,409
    runnymede said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    @Topping

    It is not my business to correct Remain's mistakes. For example, the second link you post from Peterborough is the boss of a large company telling it how it is - by definition, from social group AB.

    On unemployment, it's perfectly possible for official figures to fall whilst wages remain stagnant, and they experience unwanted social change in their local area with no tools to escape or take advantage of it.

    I think for you immigration isn't an issue at all whereas you fear your finances might be affected if we Leave. For others, it is the precise opposite.

    Static real wages for what the Americans call "the middle class" (not our definition) are a feature of almost every Western economy now. High levels of immigration are one cause (though certainly not the only one).
    Real wages are static in Japan, despite close to zero immigration.
    So is real GDP, of course.
    Yes, and nominal GDP in Japan peaked in 1997.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,775
    edited May 2016
    Alistair said:

    So with all the battle bus stuff does that make a 2016 General election more likely?

    Definitely not 2016. The plod have already asked for another year to look at this. Then there so many steps before this goes from questionable declaration of national vs local, to court cases, to any found guilty, to punishment severe enough that results in MPs being thrown out, to enough to make it necessary for a GE, etc etc etc.

    So far Crick has been going around assigning 100% of costs of a bus to particular seats then pointing out look look they overspent. Even if it is found that battle buses should account towards some local spending, it is far from clear should it be 50 / 50 (or some other percentage), and also which constituency those fees should be assigned (some of these hotels, meals etc weren't in constituencies that activities were campaigning in).
  • Options
    I note that Trump has come out in favour of Brexit and says if he is POTUS then we will definitely not be 'at the back of the queue' for a trade deal. Can it be -shock horror - that Dave getting Obama to fly over and threaten us was a cynical and self-defeating stunt?
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,684
    edited May 2016
    rcs1000 said:

    So Remain think that an American built aircraft, owned by an Irish airline, and carrying an Irish registration, makes a fitting backdrop to their latest witterings.

    Shouldn't they be supporting British airlines and aircraft manufacturing against overseas competition?

    Who made the engines?
    General Electric, they make the new Leap engine which is the only engine available on the new 737-MAX, Boeing locked RR out. Ryanair have 200 on order with the Leap engine, they even requested RR engines, but Boeing told them no iirc.
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,043
    eek said:

    MaxPB said:

    Who on earth is dismissing people's concerns?

    If immigration increases competition for jobs why is that that most areas of high unemployment are areas of low immigration. Isn't it also the case that immigration increases demand and so may actually create jobs? There is clearly a perception that immigration from the EU is driving wages down and putting pressure on public services. But that does not mean the perception is correct. Don't you think that these things are worth looking into? Who would you like to do research if you believe it is too elitist for academics to do it?

    You only have to look at threads here for the sneering at people who are against high levels any kind of immigration talk.

    On who should study it, it's a difficult one, the ivory tower mob have too many preconceptions and not enough contact with the working class to really see the effects of immigration.

    Also, creating demand at lower rates is not a virtuous circle, it makes people poorer as less than in 2008 so are still poorer than they were before the crash, working harder for a lower standard of living. It is why the government are raising the wages of the low paid by decree.

    How do we find out about the consequences - positive and negative - of immigration if we do not research the subject? Anecdote is not a good enough basis on which to develop long term solutions. Wage freezes have affected many more than low-skilled members of the working class. They have been across the board - except right at the very top, as you observe. I struggle to see how immigrants can be blamed for that.

    You assume people think straight and rationally. I find it surprising that you haven't realised yet that most people don't.

    They look around themselves and grasp something to blame. And that for many of them will be immigrants (possibly because they work with some, see some in the high street or even just a polish shop opening on the outskirts of town).

    Not true. I am convinced that Leave will win because of immigration and have been form the start. I don't blame people for thinking that immigrants are driving down wages and putting intolerable pressure on public services. They see and hear incomers, they read the papers, they listen to government ministers, they look at their pay packets and it all makes sense. But that does not mean it is true. The great British public have been told repeated lies about immigration from all parts of the political equation.

  • Options
    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Wanderer said:

    Charles said:

    It is far from clear that that EU immigration has driven down wages or increased the burden on public services:

    http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit05.pdf

    By definition an increase in population increases the burden on public services, unless the immigrants are fully funding the capacity expansion. I believe the figures most people quote are current spending/revenue only not including capital investment

    If we had zero immigration our population would still rise as people are living longer. As a result, the proportion of non-productive Brits is increasing. So the government - like previous ones - is using immigrants to help drive the growth needed to pay down the deficit, fund public services and keep taxes as low as possible. If we are not going to do that anymore, what will be the alternative - assuming we don't introduce euthanasia?
    Now there's a way for Remain to pitch for the grey vote.
    You CANT "Pay down the deficit" - You can reduce the deficit (best way would be to kill the £10 billion we pay the EU each year and the £8 billion foreign aid budget), You could in theory 'pay down' the debt - but since we are borrowing £75 billion a year that won't happen for a good few years. You have to remember that Germany was wallowing in excess cash from receipts (until the extra cost of extra-European migration hit them) and so could afford to contribute to the EU - especially as it gains so much from trade therein. We are not in that position.

    Many 65 - 70 year olds (or even 50 -65 year olds) would like to work but find themselves excluded from the market place due to ageism.

    And hiring in immigrants is a short-term, stop gap measure. Either they will stay and grow old, requiring even more immigrants (with concomitant costs in terms of housing/ health etc) OR they go home, removing more money from the UK economy.

    What is needed is for people to save more for their old age to reduce the burden on the state. The Government have tried the carrot - now it is imposing the stick.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,775
    MaxPB said:

    What is the collective term for a triplet of losers?

    http://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/660/cpsprodpb/12764/production/_89702657_a.jpg

    Ed Balls been eating all the pies at Norwich matches?
    Deliah's cooking?
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,043
    Cyclefree said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    It is far from clear that that EU immigration has driven down wages or increased the burden on public services:

    http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit05.pdf

    Tell that to the plumber who gets told that his new day rate is decreasing to £120 because the new guy from Poland is going to do it for that price. I'm sure he'll read that study with great interest.

    Honestly, it's like the Remain side are sitting atop an ivory tower sneering down at anyone who dares bring up some of the negatives of immigration, and I'm not even that bothered by it.
    LOL we are feeling sorry for plumbers, now!??

    Do you have any idea how much plumbers charge these days?
    Well quite. The Great British plumber was a staple of 1970s comedy - uncontactable, waiting times of several months, spectacularly expensive, did a sh*t job. I don't want a return to any of that, thank you very much. My Polish chap Oleg is prompt with competitive rates, and his standards are impeccable. I'd never let some British cowboy near my sink again.
    I may be unusual but over the years I have had a load of work done on my house and I have consistently used the same British firm of builders, who have been excellent. The one time I used a Latvian electrician - against my better judgment but suggested by the provider of a light fitting, they made a total bog of the job - and the electrician who corrected it said that a large part of his work was correcting errors made by foreign electricians.

    My neighbours used some Romanian builders who were generally ok and friendly but, again, when it came to something specialist (in this case my neighbour's roof) they made a mess which had to be corrected.

    All purely anecdotal, obviously. But cheeseparing when it comes to the basics of building work seems to me to be a false economy. The one piece of advice is to make sure that you understand as much as possible about how work should be done properly before assessing builders. It is all too easy to be swayed by a shiny outside whereas what really counts is how well all the stuff that is hidden is done.

    My Mum got completely screwed over by a local builder when she had her kitchen done. A Pole put it right. That said, we are currently having work done and every single person we've used is local. They are doing a superb job at a really good rate.

  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,906
    rcs1000 said:

    So Remain think that an American built aircraft, owned by an Irish airline, and carrying an Irish registration, makes a fitting backdrop to their latest witterings.

    Shouldn't they be supporting British airlines and aircraft manufacturing against overseas competition?

    Who made the engines?
    "CFM International is a joint venture between GE Aviation, a division of General Electric of the United States and Snecma, a division of Safran of France. The joint venture was formed to build and support the CFM56 series of turbofan engine."
  • Options
    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,061
    which channel is broadcasting the London Mayors debate on the role of Hitler in the EU?

  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    which channel is broadcasting the London Mayors debate on the role of Hitler in the EU?

    LBC
  • Options
    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,061
    edited May 2016

    Still.

    bollocks.

    I assume you're holding out for a Lingard hat-trick?
    Or a Smalling header....or 2.. and a clean sheet would be nice...
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Immigration may or may not hold down wages (the evidence is patchy). It is unlikely to be the main driver of low wage growth in recent years.

    In any case, suggesting that this is the vector for Leave's support misses the points that:

    1) it is oldies (who are usually retired or shortly to retire) who get most exercised by immigration; and

    2) it is people in areas with low immigration who get most exercised by it.

    It's all much more explicable by the simpler explanation of xenophobia.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,089

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    It is far from clear that that EU immigration has driven down wages or increased the burden on public services:

    http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit05.pdf

    Tell that to the plumber who gets told that his new day rate is decreasing to £120 because the new guy from Poland is going to do it for that price. I'm sure he'll read that study with great interest.

    Honestly, it's like the Remain side are sitting atop an ivory tower sneering down at anyone who dares bring up some of the negatives of immigration, and I'm not even that bothered by it.
    LOL we are feeling sorry for plumbers, now!??

    Do you have any idea how much plumbers charge these days?
    Well quite. The Great British plumber was a staple of 1970s comedy - uncontactable, waiting times of several months, spectacularly expensive, did a sh*t job. I don't want a return to any of that, thank you very much. My Polish chap Oleg is prompt with competitive rates, and his standards are impeccable. I'd never let some British cowboy near my sink again.
    It's good to see that ethnic smears and stereotypes are alive and well.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,505
    JackW said:

    PBers should be mindful that referencing Peterborough always requires a huge dollop of sympathy for the poor citizens of that city given their quite appalling luck in their present and former MP.

    I think you got away with not mentioning Helen Clark...
  • Options
    VapidBilgeVapidBilge Posts: 412

    eek said:

    MaxPB said:

    Who on earth is dismissing people's concerns?

    If immigration increases competition for jobs why is that that most areas of high unemployment are areas of low immigration. Isn't it also the case that immigration increases demand and so may actually create jobs? There is clearly a perception that immigration from the EU is driving wages down and putting pressure on public services. But that does not mean the perception is correct. Don't you think that these things are worth looking into? Who would you like to do research if you believe it is too elitist for academics to do it?

    You only have to look at threads here for the sneering at people who are against high levels any kind of immigration talk.

    On who should study it, it's a difficult one, the ivory tower mob have too many preconceptions and not enough contact with the working class to really see the effects of immigration.

    Also, creating demand at lower rates is not a virtuous circle, it makes people poorer as less than in 2008 so are still poorer than they were before the crash, working harder for a lower standard of living. It is why the government are raising the wages of the low paid by decree.

    How do we find out about the consequences - positive and negative - of immigration if we do not research the subject? Anecdote is not a good enough basis on which to develop long term solutions. Wage freezes have affected many more than low-skilled members of the working class. They have been across the board - except right at the very top, as you observe. I struggle to see how immigrants can be blamed for that.

    You assume people think straight and rationally. I find it surprising that you haven't realised yet that most people don't.

    They look around themselves and grasp something to blame. And that for many of them will be immigrants (possibly because they work with some, see some in the high street or even just a polish shop opening on the outskirts of town).

    Not true. I am convinced that Leave will win because of immigration and have been form the start. I don't blame people for thinking that immigrants are driving down wages and putting intolerable pressure on public services. They see and hear incomers, they read the papers, they listen to government ministers, they look at their pay packets and it all makes sense. But that does not mean it is true. The great British public have been told repeated lies about immigration from all parts of the political equation.

    So, people have been told lies from all directions and you are asking them to dismiss personal experience?

    Optimistic is the politist thing I can come up with to describe that idea.
  • Options
    MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792

    What is the collective term for a triplet of losers?

    http://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/660/cpsprodpb/12764/production/_89702657_a.jpg

    An axis.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,684

    My Mum got completely screwed over by a local builder when she had her kitchen done. A Pole put it right. That said, we are currently having work done and every single person we've used is local. They are doing a superb job at a really good rate.

    My cousin had work done by a Romanian firm, home extension and when the building regulations person came to inspect it they found that the external wall hadn't been reinforced and they needed to put an RSJ in immediately or the back wall might collapse at any moment. The Romanian firm promptly declared bankruptcy and they went back to Romania. My cousin was very, very annoyed and £10k out of pocket to fix the problem.

    On the other side, I had a Polish plumber to do my water softener, amazing job, all done within two days and everything works without issue.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,033
    Wanderer said:

    Wanderer said:

    Anyone know when we are likely to see polls this week?

    ICM online poll early on this week (EURef only)

    Ipsos Mori phone poll - Wed-Fri (Westminster VI and EU Ref)

    ComRes phone poll sometime this week (EURef for sure, possibly Westminster VI too)

    Possibly ICM phone poll earlier on this week (Definitely Westminster VI and maybe EURef polling)

    We might see a YouGov poll this week, and hopefully a Opinium poll this weekend. (Westminster VI and EURef polling with both)
    Thank you.

    If the Betfair Leave drift is based on the expectation of good polling for Remain we may see a reaction if that good polling doesn't materialise.
    Well the money is going one way

    Remain moves to 72% chance on Betfair exchange. 3 weeks ago it was 62%

    and

    https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/732176319686017024
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,505
    O/T - There was an interesting experiment in Austria yesterday with the Presidential debate. They just had the two candidates alone at a table for 45 minutes with no moderator and no audience. Neither of them has come out of it with their reputation enhanced.
  • Options
    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    The only chance of there being a 2016 general election would be if polling suggested that UKIP members felt their work was done and the Tory group thereof were switching back. There would still be the stupid scenario of the Tories having a motion of no confidence in themselves AND Labour being unable to form a Government (Would some ardent Europhile Tories support them to stop progress on EU negotiation?) The Tories are also about to enter the 'mid-term unpopularity' period of the electoral cycle - and they do NOT have any 'slack' (excess seats) they could afford to lose (still fewer if battlebusgate hits them.)

    You simply do NOT do anything to the greasy pole once you are at the top.
  • Options
    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    Kudos to whoever was backing a Spurs collapse. I may have only put £1 on at stunningly poor odds of 6.5 or something, but, you know, every little helps!
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 56,248
    @TSE - what were the odds for hung parliament at 21:59 on 7th May 2015?
  • Options
    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388

    Wanderer said:

    Wanderer said:

    Anyone know when we are likely to see polls this week?

    ICM online poll early on this week (EURef only)

    Ipsos Mori phone poll - Wed-Fri (Westminster VI and EU Ref)

    ComRes phone poll sometime this week (EURef for sure, possibly Westminster VI too)

    Possibly ICM phone poll earlier on this week (Definitely Westminster VI and maybe EURef polling)

    We might see a YouGov poll this week, and hopefully a Opinium poll this weekend. (Westminster VI and EURef polling with both)
    Thank you.

    If the Betfair Leave drift is based on the expectation of good polling for Remain we may see a reaction if that good polling doesn't materialise.
    Well the money is going one way

    Remain moves to 72% chance on Betfair exchange. 3 weeks ago it was 62%

    and

    https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/732176319686017024
    I mean, that just suggests punters think Remain are two long - not the same thing as going to win.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @Alison_McGovern: I just ❤️ eton-educated-ex-of-The Spectator-Boris Johnson telling me I am part of the elite establishment because I say we are @StrongerIn
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,033

    Still.

    bollocks.

    Chin up old bean.

    You've qualified for the Champions League, and remember in the last 5 years you've gone further in that tournament than the bed blockers that are Arsenal
  • Options
    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    MaxPB said:

    My Mum got completely screwed over by a local builder when she had her kitchen done. A Pole put it right. That said, we are currently having work done and every single person we've used is local. They are doing a superb job at a really good rate.

    My cousin had work done by a Romanian firm, home extension and when the building regulations person came to inspect it they found that the external wall hadn't been reinforced and they needed to put an RSJ in immediately or the back wall might collapse at any moment. The Romanian firm promptly declared bankruptcy and they went back to Romania. My cousin was very, very annoyed and £10k out of pocket to fix the problem.

    On the other side, I had a Polish plumber to do my water softener, amazing job, all done within two days and everything works without issue.
    There are good tradesmen and bad tradesmen. Being British, Polish or Romanian does not stop you from being a conniving b*st**d.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,033
    Scott_P said:

    @Alison_McGovern: I just ❤️ eton-educated-ex-of-The Spectator-Boris Johnson telling me I am part of the elite establishment because I say we are @StrongerIn

    Well actually to defend Boris, it's understandable why people who went to the dump that is Oxford don't consider themselves elite.
  • Options
    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820

    Immigration may or may not hold down wages (the evidence is patchy). It is unlikely to be the main driver of low wage growth in recent years.

    In any case, suggesting that this is the vector for Leave's support misses the points that:

    1) it is oldies (who are usually retired or shortly to retire) who get most exercised by immigration; and

    2) it is people in areas with low immigration who get most exercised by it.

    It's all much more explicable by the simpler explanation of xenophobia.

    So that is why Scotland is now a hotbed of LEAVE supporters - oh wait!
  • Options
    WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838

    O/T - There was an interesting experiment in Austria yesterday with the Presidential debate. They just had the two candidates alone at a table for 45 minutes with no moderator and no audience. Neither of them has come out of it with their reputation enhanced.

    Thinking about Cameron and Corbyn doing that. Awkward.
  • Options
    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,061

    Still.

    bollocks.

    Chin up old bean.

    You've qualified for the Champions League, and remember in the last 5 years you've gone further in that tournament than the bed blockers that are Arsenal
    That is one of my favourite stats... but still.

    Bollocks.
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 19,138

    Patrick said:



    A hedge fund manager was outraged by the price of getting his leaking kitchen taps replaced, grumbling 'I don't earn that bloody much'. 'Nor did I when I was a hedge fund manager' quipped the plumber.

    Nagging a Newcastle plumber to get my bathroom completed before visitors arrived

    'No can do mate - I'm taking the family to Cancun for two weeks. I'll try to fit you in when I come back, say in a month?'

    No wonder they hate Polish plumbers.....
    Amongst my self-building friends, the consensus is that for decent taps you need to spend eye-watering amounts of money - £300 to £400 for a kitchen mixer - if they are to last.
  • Options
    VapidBilgeVapidBilge Posts: 412

    Charles said:

    It is far from clear that that EU immigration has driven down wages or increased the burden on public services:

    http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit05.pdf

    By definition an increase in population increases the burden on public services, unless the immigrants are fully funding the capacity expansion. I believe the figures most people quote are current spending/revenue only not including capital investment

    If we had zero immigration our population would still rise as people are living longer. As a result, the proportion of non-productive Brits is increasing. So the government - like previous ones - is using immigrants to help drive the growth needed to pay down the deficit, fund public services and keep taxes as low as possible. If we are not going to do that anymore, what will be the alternative - assuming we don't introduce euthanasia?
    Euthanasia is being introduced; DNR orders, maltreatment in care homes.
    Real per capita economic growth.
    Having more children ourselves.
  • Options
    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,061
    edited May 2016

    What is the collective term for a triplet of losers?

    http://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/660/cpsprodpb/12764/production/_89702657_a.jpg

    #2020Labour
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    MattWMattW Posts: 19,138

    Alistair said:

    So with all the battle bus stuff does that make a 2016 General election more likely?

    Definitely not 2016. The plod have already asked for another year to look at this. Then there so many steps before this goes from questionable declaration of national vs local, to court cases, to any found guilty, to punishment severe enough that results in MPs being thrown out, to enough to make it necessary for a GE, etc etc etc.

    So far Crick has been going around assigning 100% of costs of a bus to particular seats then pointing out look look they overspent. Even if it is found that battle buses should account towards some local spending, it is far from clear should it be 50 / 50 (or some other percentage), and also which constituency those fees should be assigned (some of these hotels, meals etc weren't in constituencies that activities were campaigning in).
    Yes - it also looks like a lot of mudslinging over a possibly smaller technical issue. Certain similarities with SNP attempts to render the Lib Dems extinct.

    Does anyone have a number for the total amount of alleged misspending involved? I have seen a figure of £38k, but can it be that small?
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,684

    Still.

    bollocks.

    Chin up old bean.

    You've qualified for the Champions League, and remember in the last 5 years you've gone further in that tournament than the bed blockers that are Arsenal
    That is one of my favourite stats... but still.

    Bollocks.
    The team checked into their summer holidays the minute the whistle blew against Chelsea.

    Next season we'll be up there again.
  • Options
    WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    MattW said:

    Alistair said:

    So with all the battle bus stuff does that make a 2016 General election more likely?

    Definitely not 2016. The plod have already asked for another year to look at this. Then there so many steps before this goes from questionable declaration of national vs local, to court cases, to any found guilty, to punishment severe enough that results in MPs being thrown out, to enough to make it necessary for a GE, etc etc etc.

    So far Crick has been going around assigning 100% of costs of a bus to particular seats then pointing out look look they overspent. Even if it is found that battle buses should account towards some local spending, it is far from clear should it be 50 / 50 (or some other percentage), and also which constituency those fees should be assigned (some of these hotels, meals etc weren't in constituencies that activities were campaigning in).
    Yes - it also looks like a lot of mudslinging over a possibly smaller technical issue. Certain similarities with SNP attempts to render the Lib Dems extinct.

    Does anyone have a number for the total amount of alleged misspending involved? I have seen a figure of £38k, but can it be that small?
    My understanding is that it may become a serious issue. The sums of money are quite small but the law does not allow a "come on, it's only a few quid" defence.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,033

    Still.

    bollocks.

    Chin up old bean.

    You've qualified for the Champions League, and remember in the last 5 years you've gone further in that tournament than the bed blockers that are Arsenal
    That is one of my favourite stats... but still.

    Bollocks.
    Does this hurt more than qualifying for the Champions League, then losing that place when Chelsea won the Champions League, and took your spot?

    PS - I trust you'll be supporting Liverpool against Sevilla on Wednesday?
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,033
    edited May 2016

    @TSE - what were the odds for hung parliament at 21:59 on 7th May 2015?

    A lot higher than Con Most Seats.
  • Options
    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,061
    edited May 2016

    Still.

    bollocks.

    Chin up old bean.

    You've qualified for the Champions League, and remember in the last 5 years you've gone further in that tournament than the bed blockers that are Arsenal
    That is one of my favourite stats... but still.

    Bollocks.
    Does this hurt more than qualifying for the Champions League, then losing that place when Chelsea won the Champions League, and took your spot?

    PS - I trust you'll be supporting Liverpool against Sevilla on Wednesday?
    No more, no less - but only cos I don't want to give John Terry any more delight than he's already having.

    Re Liverpool - absolutely, we need you in Europe next season otherwise you might do what you did last time you weren't!
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,459
    edited May 2016
    Patrick said:

    I note that Trump has come out in favour of Brexit and says if he is POTUS then we will definitely not be 'at the back of the queue' for a trade deal. Can it be -shock horror - that Dave getting Obama to fly over and threaten us was a cynical and self-defeating stunt?

    Depends if you think Hillary, who takes the Obama line, or Trump will be POTUS. Farage endorsed Trump yesterday on Robert Peston's show
  • Options
    tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,548

    This isn't sustainable or good for the kids. £3.2 billion a year extra after surge in EU children attending British schools - more than doubled in less than a decade, from 309k in 2007 to 699k in 2015.

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/educating-european-students-costs-3bn-wfg8k95kr

    That would include my son though. I'm British, my wife is German. My son was born here and has always lived here. Why should he be counted as an EU child? Any reason other than a larger figure for a headline? Just imagine if my wife hadn't been paying her taxes for years - easy to forget just how significant the net contributions from EU citizens are. But I fear that the nationalism that has been unleashed drowns out rationalism - which is not a millions miles away from Mortmer's argument in the (excellent) thread header.

  • Options
    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034

    tyson said:

    http://www.eveningnews24.co.uk/news/politics/brexit_takes_the_lead_in_our_eu_referendum_poll_1_4536219


    Interesting poll from the SE. Major swing to leave in SE. Is this going to be mirrored elsewhere.

    "Just over a fifth (21pc) are yet to decide,"

    I don't believe this many are undecided, I think a significant proportion are "won't say". How the won't say's break down is anybodies guess.
    My guess is that they'll break more heavily for the side for which there are the most shy voters.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,505
    HYUFD said:

    Patrick said:

    I note that Trump has come out in favour of Brexit and says if he is POTUS then we will definitely not be 'at the back of the queue' for a trade deal. Can it be -shock horror - that Dave getting Obama to fly over and threaten us was a cynical and self-defeating stunt?

    Depends if you think Hillary, who rakes the Obama line, or Trump will be POTUS. Farage endorsed Trump yesterday on Robert Peston's show
    It might be reasonable for us to make a punt on the winner of the US Presidency, but not for the Prime Minister to stake the good relations of our country on it.
  • Options
    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    MattW said:

    Alistair said:

    So with all the battle bus stuff does that make a 2016 General election more likely?

    Definitely not 2016. The plod have already asked for another year to look at this. Then there so many steps before this goes from questionable declaration of national vs local, to court cases, to any found guilty, to punishment severe enough that results in MPs being thrown out, to enough to make it necessary for a GE, etc etc etc.

    So far Crick has been going around assigning 100% of costs of a bus to particular seats then pointing out look look they overspent. Even if it is found that battle buses should account towards some local spending, it is far from clear should it be 50 / 50 (or some other percentage), and also which constituency those fees should be assigned (some of these hotels, meals etc weren't in constituencies that activities were campaigning in).
    Yes - it also looks like a lot of mudslinging over a possibly smaller technical issue. Certain similarities with SNP attempts to render the Lib Dems extinct.

    Does anyone have a number for the total amount of alleged misspending involved? I have seen a figure of £38k, but can it be that small?
    If you rob a bank of £10,000 is it any less a crime than if you rob it of £100,000 ?
  • Options
    VapidBilgeVapidBilge Posts: 412

    Immigration may or may not hold down wages (the evidence is patchy). It is unlikely to be the main driver of low wage growth in recent years.

    In any case, suggesting that this is the vector for Leave's support misses the points that:

    1) it is oldies (who are usually retired or shortly to retire) who get most exercised by immigration; and

    2) it is people in areas with low immigration who get most exercised by it.

    It's all much more explicable by the simpler explanation of xenophobia.

    So, an increase in the supply of labour in certain jobs isn't suppressing labour (or, unmentioned, increasing the cost of housing)?

    Also, I do love the fact you are able to grasp that people are able to move hundreds of miles to the UK, but seemingly unable to comprehend that people might move a few miles within the same city or county.

    Or that parents or grandparents might resent their children/grandchildren having to move some distance away from them.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,974

    So Remain think that an American built aircraft, owned by an Irish airline, and carrying an Irish registration, makes a fitting backdrop to their latest witterings.

    Shouldn't they be supporting British airlines and aircraft manufacturing against overseas competition?

    Or should they be supporting the airlines that offer flyers the lowest fares.....?

    (I wouldn't fly RyanAir again, after an 8 hour delay for a 2 hour flight...)
  • Options
    NormNorm Posts: 1,251

    Immigration may or may not hold down wages (the evidence is patchy). It is unlikely to be the main driver of low wage growth in recent years.

    In any case, suggesting that this is the vector for Leave's support misses the points that:

    1) it is oldies (who are usually retired or shortly to retire) who get most exercised by immigration; and

    2) it is people in areas with low immigration who get most exercised by it.

    It's all much more explicable by the simpler explanation of xenophobia.

    Or it might be explained by the general sense that we especially in the south east are overcrowded. It is no coincidence that people are more relaxed and happier where the population density is lower, there is less traffic, noise and air pollution and there are plenty of green spaces to enjoy. Having to build a new city the size of Leeds every four years is not sustainable.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,033

    MattW said:

    Alistair said:

    So with all the battle bus stuff does that make a 2016 General election more likely?

    Definitely not 2016. The plod have already asked for another year to look at this. Then there so many steps before this goes from questionable declaration of national vs local, to court cases, to any found guilty, to punishment severe enough that results in MPs being thrown out, to enough to make it necessary for a GE, etc etc etc.

    So far Crick has been going around assigning 100% of costs of a bus to particular seats then pointing out look look they overspent. Even if it is found that battle buses should account towards some local spending, it is far from clear should it be 50 / 50 (or some other percentage), and also which constituency those fees should be assigned (some of these hotels, meals etc weren't in constituencies that activities were campaigning in).
    Yes - it also looks like a lot of mudslinging over a possibly smaller technical issue. Certain similarities with SNP attempts to render the Lib Dems extinct.

    Does anyone have a number for the total amount of alleged misspending involved? I have seen a figure of £38k, but can it be that small?
    If you rob a bank of £10,000 is it any less a crime than if you rob it of £100,000 ?
    Well the sentencing guidelines say yes.
  • Options
    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034

    Mr. Mortimer, an interesting piece.

    It'd be tight to get one for 2016, though. It is a credible possibility, however.

    Mr. Tyson, Birmingham is southern.


    And I thought anything north of Exeter was the Midlands, and north of Bristol the North.
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    @VapidBilge (good name, can't think where you got it from) - Employment rates are at an all time high, job vacancy rates are touching all time highs, unemployment rates are at a ten year low. So the increase in the supply of labour is not keeping up with the increased demand for it.

    In those circumstances, we can reasonably conclude that immigration isn't the main thing holding down wage rises.
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,043

    eek said:

    MaxPB said:

    Who on earth is dismissing people's concerns?

    If immigration increases competition for jobs why is that that most areas of high unemployment are areas of low immigration. Isn't it also the case that immigration increases demand and so may actually create jobs? There is clearly a perception that immigration from the EU is driving wages down and putting pressure on public services. But that does not mean the perception is correct. Don't you think that these things are worth looking into? Who would you like to do research if you believe it is too elitist for academics to do it?

    You only have to look at threads here for the sneering at people who are against high levels any kind of immigration talk.

    On who should study it, it's a difficult one, the ivory tower mob have too many preconceptions and not enough contact with the working class to really see the effects of immigration.

    Also, creating demand at lower rates is not a virtuous circle, it makes people poorer as less than in 2008 so are still poorer than they were before the crash, working harder for a lower standard of living. It is why the government are raising the wages of the low paid by decree.

    How do we find out about the consequences - positive and negative - of immigration if we do not research the subject? Anecdote is not a good enough basis on which to develop long term solutions. Wage freezes have affected many more than low-skilled members of the working class. They have been across the board - except right at the very top, as you observe. I struggle to see how immigrants can be blamed for that.

    You assume people think straight and rationally. I find it surprising that you haven't realised yet that most people don't.

    They look around themselves and grasp something to blame. Andsome, see some in the high street or even just a polish shop opening on the outskirts of town).

    Not true. I am convinced that Leave will win because of immigration and have been form the start. I don't blame people for thinking that immigrants are driving down wages and putting intolerable pressure on public services. They see and hear incomers, they read the papers, they listen to government ministers, they look at their pay packets and it all makes sense. But that does not mean it is true. The great British public have been told repeated lies about immigration from all parts of the political equation.

    So, people have been told lies from all directions and you are asking them to dismiss personal experience?

    Optimistic is the politist thing I can come up with to describe that idea.

    No, I'm not.

  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,033

    Still.

    bollocks.

    Chin up old bean.

    You've qualified for the Champions League, and remember in the last 5 years you've gone further in that tournament than the bed blockers that are Arsenal
    That is one of my favourite stats... but still.

    Bollocks.
    Does this hurt more than qualifying for the Champions League, then losing that place when Chelsea won the Champions League, and took your spot?

    PS - I trust you'll be supporting Liverpool against Sevilla on Wednesday?
    No more, no less - but only cos I don't want to give John Terry any more delight than he's already having.

    Re Liverpool - absolutely, we need you in Europe next season otherwise you might do what you did last time you weren't!
    On Thursday morning, I'm going to bet on Liverpool winning every trophy they are competing in next season.

    In Jürgen Klopp (pbuh) we trust
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,459

    HYUFD said:

    Patrick said:

    I note that Trump has come out in favour of Brexit and says if he is POTUS then we will definitely not be 'at the back of the queue' for a trade deal. Can it be -shock horror - that Dave getting Obama to fly over and threaten us was a cynical and self-defeating stunt?

    Depends if you think Hillary, who rakes the Obama line, or Trump will be POTUS. Farage endorsed Trump yesterday on Robert Peston's show
    It might be reasonable for us to make a punt on the winner of the US Presidency, but not for the Prime Minister to stake the good relations of our country on it.
    Indeed, I expect the Tory right is warming to Trump after his recent statements on the EU and Cameron may find himself in even more trouble with his backbenchers if his favoured candidate, Hillary, fails to win
  • Options
    EPGEPG Posts: 6,135
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    It is far from clear that that EU immigration has driven down wages or increased the burden on public services:

    http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit05.pdf

    Tell that to the plumber who gets told that his new day rate is decreasing to £120 because the new guy from Poland is going to do it for that price. I'm sure he'll read that study with great interest.

    Honestly, it's like the Remain side are sitting atop an ivory tower sneering down at anyone who dares bring up some of the negatives of immigration, and I'm not even that bothered by it.

    Pointing out research that does not fit your narrative is not sneering. Sorry.

    Research written by some academic type who probably has as much contact with working class people as our leaders.
    LEAVE was the campaign of brainy, bracing-liberal Eurosceptics, now it's devolved into Trumpian moans about the elite.

    Forgive me for not sharing in the PB comments consensus that REMAIN is the campaign in despair. LEAVE has been forced off their chosen ground of post-referendum free-choice about sovereign British policies, and is getting closer to the Ukip strategy of migrants - culture - migrants - anti-establishment - migrants with every day, you know the party that won a few per cent more than the Lib Dems. Two things are for sure: English people don't vote against the establishment and, when it comes down to it, they don't even vote out governments that increase immigration.
  • Options
    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    edited May 2016
    MattW said:

    Patrick said:



    A hedge fund manager was outraged by the price of getting his leaking kitchen taps replaced, grumbling 'I don't earn that bloody much'. 'Nor did I when I was a hedge fund manager' quipped the plumber.

    Nagging a Newcastle plumber to get my bathroom completed before visitors arrived

    'No can do mate - I'm taking the family to Cancun for two weeks. I'll try to fit you in when I come back, say in a month?'

    No wonder they hate Polish plumbers.....
    Amongst my self-building friends, the consensus is that for decent taps you need to spend eye-watering amounts of money - £300 to £400 for a kitchen mixer - if they are to last.
    Is that the product price or installed? $100-$300 for a very decent mixer is the price in the US, but higher end is easily in the $500-$1000 range, just for the product. Installation would be around$50 per hour with a $50 call out fee.

    PS unless you go off books and illegal immigrant, then labour is much cheaper.
  • Options
    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699

    MattW said:

    Alistair said:

    So with all the battle bus stuff does that make a 2016 General election more likely?

    Definitely not 2016. The plod have already asked for another year to look at this. Then there so many steps before this goes from questionable declaration of national vs local, to court cases, to any found guilty, to punishment severe enough that results in MPs being thrown out, to enough to make it necessary for a GE, etc etc etc.

    So far Crick has been going around assigning 100% of costs of a bus to particular seats then pointing out look look they overspent. Even if it is found that battle buses should account towards some local spending, it is far from clear should it be 50 / 50 (or some other percentage), and also which constituency those fees should be assigned (some of these hotels, meals etc weren't in constituencies that activities were campaigning in).
    Yes - it also looks like a lot of mudslinging over a possibly smaller technical issue. Certain similarities with SNP attempts to render the Lib Dems extinct.

    Does anyone have a number for the total amount of alleged misspending involved? I have seen a figure of £38k, but can it be that small?
    If you rob a bank of £10,000 is it any less a crime than if you rob it of £100,000 ?
    Well the sentencing guidelines say yes.
    No they dont . I suggest you read them .
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    I must have missed it, but I imagine there has been a torrent of abuse at Trump from the same people who were so outraged at Obama expressing a view on Brexit?
  • Options
    VapidBilgeVapidBilge Posts: 412
    tpfkar said:

    This isn't sustainable or good for the kids. £3.2 billion a year extra after surge in EU children attending British schools - more than doubled in less than a decade, from 309k in 2007 to 699k in 2015.

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/educating-european-students-costs-3bn-wfg8k95kr

    That would include my son though. I'm British, my wife is German. My son was born here and has always lived here. Why should he be counted as an EU child? Any reason other than a larger figure for a headline? Just imagine if my wife hadn't been paying her taxes for years - easy to forget just how significant the net contributions from EU citizens are. But I fear that the nationalism that has been unleashed drowns out rationalism - which is not a millions miles away from Mortmer's argument in the (excellent) thread header.

    So, you're in the same position as Nigel Farage.

    Of course, you are an EU citizen as well, so your son is 100% an EU child.

    Pedantry aside, your son inherits British citizenship from yourself and is, presumably, being brought up in a presumably English-speaking household. Can't read the link, but presumably they're judging by the nationality of the mother? I agree it's inappropriate in your case.
  • Options
    LucyJonesLucyJones Posts: 651
    edited May 2016

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    It is far from clear that that EU immigration has driven down wages or increased the burden on public services:

    http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit05.pdf

    Tell that to the plumber who gets told that his new day rate is decreasing to £120 because the new guy from Poland is going to do it for that price. I'm sure he'll read that study with great interest.

    Honestly, it's like the Remain side are sitting atop an ivory tower sneering down at anyone who dares bring up some of the negatives of immigration, and I'm not even that bothered by it.
    LOL we are feeling sorry for plumbers, now!??

    Do you have any idea how much plumbers charge these days?
    Well quite. The Great British plumber was a staple of 1970s comedy - uncontactable, waiting times of several months, spectacularly expensive, did a sh*t job. I don't want a return to any of that, thank you very much. My Polish chap Oleg is prompt with competitive rates, and his standards are impeccable. I'd never let some British cowboy near my sink again.
    Really??

    I once saw a 1970s film featuring a plumber which led me to believe that, if an attractive young lady was about to take a shower only to find it wasn't working, a trusty British plumber would be around with his plunger before she could finish unbuttoning her blouse...
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Seems appropriate to remind some posters of this. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/10/britain-sleepwalking-to-catastrophe-over-race-trevor-phillips/
    Britain risks “flames” of racial and religious conflict because of a “liberal self-delusion” over the impact of mass immigration, the former head of the equality watchdog Trevor Phillips claims today.

    In a startling assault on decades of official multiculturalism and diversity policy, the founding chair of the Equality and Human Rights Commission argues the UK is being allowed to “sleepwalk to catastrophe” by leaders too “touchy”, “smug”, “complacent” and “squeamish” to talk about race.

    Drawing a direct parallel with Enoch Powell’s notorious “rivers of blood” speech, he likens Britain’s politicians, media and educated elite in general to the Emperor Nero fiddling while Rome burned, unable even to recognise the “dark side of the diverse society”.
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    VapidBilgeVapidBilge Posts: 412
    EPG said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    It is far from clear that that EU immigration has driven down wages or increased the burden on public services:

    http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit05.pdf

    Tell that to the plumber who gets told that his new day rate is decreasing to £120 because the new guy from Poland is going to do it for that price. I'm sure he'll read that study with great interest.

    Honestly, it's like the Remain side are sitting atop an ivory tower sneering down at anyone who dares bring up some of the negatives of immigration, and I'm not even that bothered by it.

    Pointing out research that does not fit your narrative is not sneering. Sorry.

    Research written by some academic type who probably has as much contact with working class people as our leaders.
    LEAVE was the campaign of brainy, bracing-liberal Eurosceptics, now it's devolved into Trumpian moans about the elite.

    Forgive me for not sharing in the PB comments consensus that REMAIN is the campaign in despair. LEAVE has been forced off their chosen ground of post-referendum free-choice about sovereign British policies, and is getting closer to the Ukip strategy of migrants - culture - migrants - anti-establishment - migrants with every day, you know the party that won a few per cent more than the Lib Dems. Two things are for sure: English people don't vote against the establishment and, when it comes down to it, they don't even vote out governments that increase immigration.
    You do realise this isn't a General Election, don't you?
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    EPG said:

    Forgive me for not sharing in the PB comments consensus that REMAIN is the campaign in despair.

    It's hilarious.

    The Brexit echo chamber full of Leavers trying to convince each other how well everything is going is so reminiscent of the "Everything is good for Yes" Indyref campaign
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,684

    @VapidBilge (good name, can't think where you got it from) - Employment rates are at an all time high, job vacancy rates are touching all time highs, unemployment rates are at a ten year low. So the increase in the supply of labour is not keeping up with the increased demand for it.

    In those circumstances, we can reasonably conclude that immigration isn't the main thing holding down wage rises.

    Increasing labour supply in line with labour demand would lead to stagnant wages. GDP per capita is up just 1% on the 2008 peak.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,033

    MattW said:

    Alistair said:

    So with all the battle bus stuff does that make a 2016 General election more likely?

    Definitely not 2016. The plod have already asked for another year to look at this. Then there so many steps before this goes from questionable declaration of national vs local, to court cases, to any found guilty, to punishment severe enough that results in MPs being thrown out, to enough to make it necessary for a GE, etc etc etc.

    So far Crick has been going around assigning 100% of costs of a bus to particular seats then pointing out look look they overspent. Even if it is found that battle buses should account towards some local spending, it is far from clear should it be 50 / 50 (or some other percentage), and also which constituency those fees should be assigned (some of these hotels, meals etc weren't in constituencies that activities were campaigning in).
    Yes - it also looks like a lot of mudslinging over a possibly smaller technical issue. Certain similarities with SNP attempts to render the Lib Dems extinct.

    Does anyone have a number for the total amount of alleged misspending involved? I have seen a figure of £38k, but can it be that small?
    If you rob a bank of £10,000 is it any less a crime than if you rob it of £100,000 ?
    Well the sentencing guidelines say yes.
    No they dont . I suggest you read them .
    Value of items taken

    ❏ Property value may be more important in planned/sophisticated robberies.
    ❏ The value of the property capable of being taken should be taken into account as well
    as the amount/value of the property actually taken.

    http://www.sentencingcouncil.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/web_robbery-guidelines.pdf
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    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034

    I must have missed it, but I imagine there has been a torrent of abuse at Trump from the same people who were so outraged at Obama expressing a view on Brexit?

    Why? Trump expressly stated it was his personal opinion that the Brits would be better off out but that it was the British people's right to decide. It was stated in response to a reporter question and not offered as a recommendation.

    Furthermore, he stated that if the UK chose to leave, it would move to the front of the queue, not the back.

    All in all, a much more respectful and UK-friendly position than Obama's.
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    edited May 2016
    MTimT said:

    I must have missed it, but I imagine there has been a torrent of abuse at Trump from the same people who were so outraged at Obama expressing a view on Brexit?

    Why? Trump expressly stated it was his personal opinion that the Brits would be better off out but that it was the British people's right to decide. It was stated in response to a reporter question and not offered as a recommendation.

    Furthermore, he stated that if the UK chose to leave, it would move to the front of the queue, not the back.

    All in all, a much more respectful and UK-friendly position than Obama's.
    Quite. It was a model answer. Small point, I thought he said 'we wouldn't be at the back of the queue'.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,069
    edited May 2016

    MattW said:

    Alistair said:

    So with all the battle bus stuff does that make a 2016 General election more likely?

    Definitely not 2016. The plod have already asked for another year to look at this. Then there so many steps before this goes from questionable declaration of national vs local, to court cases, to any found guilty, to punishment severe enough that results in MPs being thrown out, to enough to make it necessary for a GE, etc etc etc.

    So far Crick has been going around assigning 100% of costs of a bus to particular seats then pointing out look look they overspent. Even if it is found that battle buses should account towards some local spending, it is far from clear should it be 50 / 50 (or some other percentage), and also which constituency those fees should be assigned (some of these hotels, meals etc weren't in constituencies that activities were campaigning in).
    Yes - it also looks like a lot of mudslinging over a possibly smaller technical issue. Certain similarities with SNP attempts to render the Lib Dems extinct.

    Does anyone have a number for the total amount of alleged misspending involved? I have seen a figure of £38k, but can it be that small?
    If you rob a bank of £10,000 is it any less a crime than if you rob it of £100,000 ?
    Well the sentencing guidelines say yes.
    No they dont . I suggest you read them .
    Value of items taken

    ❏ Property value may be more important in planned/sophisticated robberies.
    ❏ The value of the property capable of being taken should be taken into account as well
    as the amount/value of the property actually taken.

    http://www.sentencingcouncil.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/web_robbery-guidelines.pdf
    A minimal to no difference in sentencing as to whether £100,000 or £10,000 is taken I'd imagine.

    £10,000 is a large sum of money.

    Additional aggravating factors. http://www.cps.gov.uk/legal/s_to_u/sentencing_manual/robbery/

    "Targeting of large sums of money or valuable goods"
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    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    LucyJones said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    It is far from clear that that EU immigration has driven down wages or increased the burden on public services:

    http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit05.pdf

    Tell that to the plumber who gets told that his new day rate is decreasing to £120 because the new guy from Poland is going to do it for that price. I'm sure he'll read that study with great interest.

    Honestly, it's like the Remain side are sitting atop an ivory tower sneering down at anyone who dares bring up some of the negatives of immigration, and I'm not even that bothered by it.
    LOL we are feeling sorry for plumbers, now!??

    Do you have any idea how much plumbers charge these days?
    Well quite. The Great British plumber was a staple of 1970s comedy - uncontactable, waiting times of several months, spectacularly expensive, did a sh*t job. I don't want a return to any of that, thank you very much. My Polish chap Oleg is prompt with competitive rates, and his standards are impeccable. I'd never let some British cowboy near my sink again.
    Really??

    I once saw a 1970s film featuring a plumber which led me to believe that, if an attractive young lady was about to take a shower only to find it wasn't working, a trusty British plumber would be around with his plunger before she could finish unbuttoning her blouse...
    Alas, I was underage so was not allowed into the cinema to see that one ;)
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    PAWPAW Posts: 1,074
    Snafu reports "The latest figures show that last year 5,516 Dutch people — including children — were legally killed by lethal injection administered by doctors trained to do the task with rapid efficiency." (attributed to The Mail) - "total executions in the U.S. since 1976 come in at 1,436." - "60 million American aborted in the US since it was approved".
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited May 2016
    MTimT said:

    I must have missed it, but I imagine there has been a torrent of abuse at Trump from the same people who were so outraged at Obama expressing a view on Brexit?

    Why? Trump expressly stated it was his personal opinion that the Brits would be better off out but that it was the British people's right to decide. It was stated in response to a reporter question and not offered as a recommendation.

    Furthermore, he stated that if the UK chose to leave, it would move to the front of the queue, not the back.

    All in all, a much more respectful and UK-friendly position than Obama's.
    Ah yes, interference on the side you support is fine, interference on the side you don't support is an outrage. Obama, of course, also said it was a decision for the British people.

    The transparent mental gymnastics of Leavers is absolutely hilarious. I'm sure there are examples on the Remain side as well, but the quasi-religious zeal of somes Leavers is completely addling their brains. (A very nice example was the deranged repsonses to my point about Angela Merkel at the end of the last thread - some posters, including some normally sensible ones, were like Pavlov's dogs salivating at a point I hadn't made, and managed to argue themselves into agreeing with Jean-Claude Juncker that the solution was 'more Europe'.)
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    VapidBilgeVapidBilge Posts: 412

    @VapidBilge (good name, can't think where you got it from) - Employment rates are at an all time high, job vacancy rates are touching all time highs, unemployment rates are at a ten year low. So the increase in the supply of labour is not keeping up with the increased demand for it.

    In those circumstances, we can reasonably conclude that immigration isn't the main thing holding down wage rises.

    Increase in low-skilled Labour leading to increase low-skilled employment as employers substitute cheaper labour for capital? The near collapse in productivity growth seems to bear this out.

    I know it's not the sole cause, but the rise in tax credits from £4 billion to £31 billion is being caused by something.
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    PAWPAW Posts: 1,074
    AlastairMeeks - my mother's carers have just had a pay cut to minimum wage - any idea why?
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,291
    Mr Ivor Biggun had a song re building work of Tool Bag Ted from Birkenhead.
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    tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,548
    edited May 2016

    tpfkar said:

    This isn't sustainable or good for the kids. £3.2 billion a year extra after surge in EU children attending British schools - more than doubled in less than a decade, from 309k in 2007 to 699k in 2015.

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/educating-european-students-costs-3bn-wfg8k95kr

    That would include my son though. I'm British, my wife is German. My son was born here and has always lived here. Why should he be counted as an EU child? Any reason other than a larger figure for a headline? Just imagine if my wife hadn't been paying her taxes for years - easy to forget just how significant the net contributions from EU citizens are. But I fear that the nationalism that has been unleashed drowns out rationalism - which is not a millions miles away from Mortmer's argument in the (excellent) thread header.

    So, you're in the same position as Nigel Farage.
    Hard to tell us apart, really.


    Pedantry aside, your son inherits British citizenship from yourself and is, presumably, being brought up in a presumably English-speaking household. Can't read the link, but presumably they're judging by the nationality of the mother? I agree it's inappropriate in your case.

    The link says that they are counting children where either parent is an EU citizen but not British. Not saying we shouldn't debate numbers and capacity - but I fear we are getting caught up in misleading and alarmist headlines that deserve more scrutiny.
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    sarissasarissa Posts: 1,814
    tlg86 said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    Here is England's 26-man provisional squad for the European Championships.

    Goalkeepers: Joe Hart, Fraser Forster, Tom Heaton.

    Defenders: Nathaniel Clyne, Kyle Walker, Gary Cahill, Chris Smalling, John Stones, Ryan Bertrand, Danny Rose.

    Midfielders: Dele Alli, Ross Barkley, Fabian Delph, Eric Dier, Danny Drinkwater, Jordan Henderson, Adam Lallana, James Milner, Raheem Sterling, Andros Townsend, Jack Wilshere.

    Strikers: Harry Kane, Marcus Rashford, Wayne Rooney, Daniel Sturridge, Jamie Vardy.


    This is to be reduced to a final 23 to go. Which three should be excluded?

    I suggest we don't need three goalkeepers and Henderson and Wilshere are not match fit.

    Delph, Rashford, and Drinkwater.

    Those aren't my choices, but what I expect Roy to do.
    I think Roy made it pretty clear in the press conference that Rashford was highly unlikely to go.
    As someone who cannot abide football I hope to see an early exit for ALL the so -called home nations.
    Well aren't you a happy chappy....
    I certainly will be if we have a few early exits bringing an end to the hysteria and associated flag waving.
    A bad refereeing decision by a French or German ref would be greatly received.
    UEFA regulations require that the squad includes three goalkeepers
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Interesting

    @ProfBrianCox: I'm fed up with Tory school chums plotting to remove Cameron etc. The UK is not your plaything. You want to change PM, call an election.
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    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699

    MattW said:

    Alistair said:

    So with all the battle bus stuff does that make a 2016 General election more likely?

    Definitely not 2016. The plod have already asked for another year to look at this. Then there so many steps before this goes from questionable declaration of national vs local, to court cases, to any found guilty, to punishment severe enough that results in MPs being thrown out, to enough to make it necessary for a GE, etc etc etc.

    So far Crick has been going around assigning 100% of costs of a bus to particular seats then pointing out look look they overspent. Even if it is found that battle buses should account towards some local spending, it is far from clear should it be 50 / 50 (or some other percentage), and also which constituency those fees should be assigned (some of these hotels, meals etc weren't in constituencies that activities were campaigning in).
    Yes - it also looks like a lot of mudslinging over a possibly smaller technical issue. Certain similarities with SNP attempts to render the Lib Dems extinct.

    Does anyone have a number for the total amount of alleged misspending involved? I have seen a figure of £38k, but can it be that small?
    If you rob a bank of £10,000 is it any less a crime than if you rob it of £100,000 ?
    Well the sentencing guidelines say yes.
    No they dont . I suggest you read them .
    Value of items taken

    ❏ Property value may be more important in planned/sophisticated robberies.
    ❏ The value of the property capable of being taken should be taken into account as well
    as the amount/value of the property actually taken.

    http://www.sentencingcouncil.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/web_robbery-guidelines.pdf
    Part 2 of your link relates to bank robberies and value is not referred to in this section .
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,033
    Pulpstar said:

    MattW said:

    Alistair said:

    So with all the battle bus stuff does that make a 2016 General election more likely?

    Definitely not 2016. The plod have already asked for another year to look at this. Then there so many steps before this goes from questionable declaration of national vs local, to court cases, to any found guilty, to punishment severe enough that results in MPs being thrown out, to enough to make it necessary for a GE, etc etc etc.

    So far Crick has been going around assigning 100% of costs of a bus to particular seats then pointing out look look they overspent. Even if it is found that battle buses should account towards some local spending, it is far from clear should it be 50 / 50 (or some other percentage), and also which constituency those fees should be assigned (some of these hotels, meals etc weren't in constituencies that activities were campaigning in).
    Yes - it also looks like a lot of mudslinging over a possibly smaller technical issue. Certain similarities with SNP attempts to render the Lib Dems extinct.

    Does anyone have a number for the total amount of alleged misspending involved? I have seen a figure of £38k, but can it be that small?
    If you rob a bank of £10,000 is it any less a crime than if you rob it of £100,000 ?
    Well the sentencing guidelines say yes.
    No they dont . I suggest you read them .
    Value of items taken

    ❏ Property value may be more important in planned/sophisticated robberies.
    ❏ The value of the property capable of being taken should be taken into account as well
    as the amount/value of the property actually taken.

    http://www.sentencingcouncil.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/web_robbery-guidelines.pdf
    A minimal to no difference in sentencing as to whether £100,000 or £10,000 is taken I'd imagine.

    £10,000 is a large sum of money.

    Additional aggravating factors. http://www.cps.gov.uk/legal/s_to_u/sentencing_manual/robbery/

    "Targeting of large sums of money or valuable goods"
    On fraud crimes the lowest guideline for theft/fraud at 12.5k is a Community Order

    Up to 100k is around 3/4 years.

    https://www.sentencingcouncil.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/Fraud_bribery_and_money_laundering_offences_-_Definitive_guideline.pdf
This discussion has been closed.