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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Mortimer with a tip for the more adventurous gamblers

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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,896

    Here is England's 26-man provisional squad for the European Championships.

    Goalkeepers: Joe Hart, Fraser Forster, Tom Heaton.

    Defenders: Nathaniel Clyne, Kyle Walker, Gary Cahill, Chris Smalling, John Stones, Ryan Bertrand, Danny Rose.

    Midfielders: Dele Alli, Ross Barkley, Fabian Delph, Eric Dier, Danny Drinkwater, Jordan Henderson, Adam Lallana, James Milner, Raheem Sterling, Andros Townsend, Jack Wilshere.

    Strikers: Harry Kane, Marcus Rashford, Wayne Rooney, Daniel Sturridge, Jamie Vardy.


    This is to be reduced to a final 23 to go. Which three should be excluded?

    I suggest we don't need three goalkeepers and Henderson and Wilshere are not match fit.

    We don't need all 4 of Delph, Drinkwater, Henderson, Milner...they are very similar players.
  • Options
    Innocent_AbroadInnocent_Abroad Posts: 3,294

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Great post Mortimer, thanks.

    I would be interested in knowing how people define sovereignty and how also it affects them personally.

    So while I agree with you on the power of the concept of reclaiming sovereignty, I wonder how concrete a motivating force that will be when, on the way to the polling booths, people ponder what it actually means.

    Immigration I grant you is a clearer proposition, although again, by no means a concrete factor in most peoples' lives.

    It's a very concrete (and economic) factor in many people's lives, particularly in social groups C2/D - what Remain have on their side is that they simply don't vote.

    I'm increasingly wondering if Remain are running an AB campaign designer to appeal to ABs. Triple egg and chips has clearly has had some effect in this category.

    I'm not sure it's going to be decisive with C1/C2s and pensioners.
    How many is many? Are British plumbers suffering? British baristas? British hop-pickers? British builders?

    There is no doubt that the influx of EU workers has suppressed wages, but no more or less so than cheaper far east imports and we don't want to ban those, do we? In fact ISTR that most on here see the Far East, for example, as exactly the area with whom they want to increase trade.

    It's all a bit 19th century tbh.
    You can't be serious about increasing the wealth of this country unless you're prepared to exterminate lefties wholesale.

    You need help.

    I've lost count of the number of times you've posted this.
    You were counting?

  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,108

    Here is England's 26-man provisional squad for the European Championships.

    Goalkeepers: Joe Hart, Fraser Forster, Tom Heaton.

    Defenders: Nathaniel Clyne, Kyle Walker, Gary Cahill, Chris Smalling, John Stones, Ryan Bertrand, Danny Rose.

    Midfielders: Dele Alli, Ross Barkley, Fabian Delph, Eric Dier, Danny Drinkwater, Jordan Henderson, Adam Lallana, James Milner, Raheem Sterling, Andros Townsend, Jack Wilshere.

    Strikers: Harry Kane, Marcus Rashford, Wayne Rooney, Daniel Sturridge, Jamie Vardy.


    This is to be reduced to a final 23 to go. Which three should be excluded?

    I suggest we don't need three goalkeepers and Henderson and Wilshere are not match fit.

    Delph, Rashford, and Drinkwater.

    Those aren't my choices, but what I expect Roy to do.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,723
    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Great post Mortimer, thanks.

    I would be interested in knowing how people define sovereignty and how also it affects them personally.

    So while I agree with you on the power of the concept of reclaiming sovereignty, I wonder how concrete a motivating force that will be when, on the way to the polling booths, people ponder what it actually means.

    Immigration I grant you is a clearer proposition, although again, by no means a concrete factor in most peoples' lives.

    It's a very concrete (and economic) factor in many people's lives, particularly in social groups C2/D - what Remain have on their side is that they simply don't vote.

    I'm increasingly wondering if Remain are running an AB campaign designer to appeal to ABs. Triple egg and chips has clearly has had some effect in this category.

    I'm not sure it's going to be decisive with C1/C2s and pensioners.
    How many is many? Are British plumbers suffering? British baristas? British hop-pickers? British builders?

    There is no doubt that the influx of EU workers has suppressed wages, but no more or less so than cheaper far east imports and we don't want to ban those, do we? In fact ISTR that most on here see the Far East, for example, as exactly the area with whom they want to increase trade.

    It's all a bit 19th century tbh.
    I think your posts proves my point. FWIW Stuart 'where is he?' Rose also believes it to be true.

    In many parts of the country, people see a real impact of migration on the shape of their communities, public services and as a brake on wages.
    Where?
    Peterborough comes to mind, swathes of the north, Kent, Essex and Elstree down south.
    This Peterborough?
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,459
    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Great post Mortimer, thanks.

    I would be interested in knowing how people define sovereignty and how also it affects them personally.

    So while I agree with you on the power of the concept of reclaiming sovereignty, I wonder how concrete a motivating force that will be when, on the way to the polling booths, people ponder what it actually means.

    Immigration I grant you is a clearer proposition, although again, by no means a concrete factor in most peoples' lives.

    It's a very concrete (and economic) factor in many people's lives, particularly in social groups C2/D - what Remain have on their side is that they simply don't vote.

    I'm increasingly wondering if Remain are running an AB campaign designer to appeal to ABs. Triple egg and chips has clearly has had some effect in this category.

    I'm not sure it's going to be decisive with C1/C2s and pensioners.
    How many is many? Are British plumbers suffering? British baristas? British hop-pickers? British builders?

    There is no doubt that the influx of EU workers has suppressed wages, but no more or less so than cheaper far east imports and we don't want to ban those, do we? In fact ISTR that most on here see the Far East, for example, as exactly the area with whom they want to increase trade.

    It's all a bit 19th century tbh.
    Well a mate of mine is an electrician, he says most of his contractor friends are for out. They know it will increase their wages if we restrict EU immigration.

    I think the point is that we are becoming a services economy much faster than anyone could have predicted, so those who provide the services are worried that their wages are flatlining due to labour importation. The production jobs have, sadly, disappeared already so importing more tat from China for less money than it can be imported from Germany probably makes some kind of sense.
    Of course, this works both ways. I guess this means I'm going to be paying more for electricians services in the future.
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,070
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,896

    Here is England's 26-man provisional squad for the European Championships.

    Goalkeepers: Joe Hart, Fraser Forster, Tom Heaton.

    Defenders: Nathaniel Clyne, Kyle Walker, Gary Cahill, Chris Smalling, John Stones, Ryan Bertrand, Danny Rose.

    Midfielders: Dele Alli, Ross Barkley, Fabian Delph, Eric Dier, Danny Drinkwater, Jordan Henderson, Adam Lallana, James Milner, Raheem Sterling, Andros Townsend, Jack Wilshere.

    Strikers: Harry Kane, Marcus Rashford, Wayne Rooney, Daniel Sturridge, Jamie Vardy.


    This is to be reduced to a final 23 to go. Which three should be excluded?

    I suggest we don't need three goalkeepers and Henderson and Wilshere are not match fit.

    Delph, Rashford, and Drinkwater.

    Those aren't my choices, but what I expect Roy to do.
    I think Roy made it pretty clear in the press conference that Rashford was highly unlikely to go.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    tyson said:

    Actually the car industry is a classic example of why the concept of nation states as Brexiters would like is long dead. Companies with head offices based in one country, their brand bought from another, financed in another, paying taxes in another, regulated by another.....

    Brexit represents a combination of romanticism and sentimentalism. A yearning for some kind of throwback to how things used to be. It is little wonder that conservatives are attracted to it. But in this era of uncertainty it would not surprise me one jot if sufficient numbers were attracted to it to record a no vote. I am going to start betting accordingly.

    Nissan has admitted the Qashqai models allegedly fitted with so-called emissions defeat devices were built at its Sunderland plant in the UK.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36299555

    No necessarily. The EU restricts our ability to make ourselves attractive locations for the most high value part of the innovation chain.

    eg. German protests leading to the EU ruling out the patent box (which was a combination of Vince and George, I think, although Labour tried to claim it for themselves)
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,686

    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Great post Mortimer, thanks.

    I would be interested in knowing how people define sovereignty and how also it affects them personally.

    So while I agree with you on the power of the concept of reclaiming sovereignty, I wonder how concrete a motivating force that will be when, on the way to the polling booths, people ponder what it actually means.

    Immigration I grant you is a clearer proposition, although again, by no means a concrete factor in most peoples' lives.

    It's a very concrete (and economic) factor in many people's lives, particularly in social groups C2/D - what Remain have on their side is that they simply don't vote.

    I'm increasingly wondering if Remain are running an AB campaign designer to appeal to ABs. Triple egg and chips has clearly has had some effect in this category.

    I'm not sure it's going to be decisive with C1/C2s and pensioners.
    How many is many? Are British plumbers suffering? British baristas? British hop-pickers? British builders?

    There is no doubt that the influx of EU workers has suppressed wages, but no more or less so than cheaper far east imports and we don't want to ban those, do we? In fact ISTR that most on here see the Far East, for example, as exactly the area with whom they want to increase trade.

    It's all a bit 19th century tbh.
    Well a mate of mine is an electrician, he says most of his contractor friends are for out. They know it will increase their wages if we restrict EU immigration.

    I think the point is that we are becoming a services economy much faster than anyone could have predicted, so those who provide the services are worried that their wages are flatlining due to labour importation. The production jobs have, sadly, disappeared already so importing more tat from China for less money than it can be imported from Germany probably makes some kind of sense.

    Great - so we all get to pay more and receive slower, poorer quality service. I thought the right was against looking after producer interests.

    Again, I'm not advocating this argument, I'm personally not that bothered by immigration from the EU, could the numbers go down? Probably, but I don't think we need drastic measures to make that happen, making benefits wholly contributory and having mandatory health insurance required to obtain NI numbers is probably enough to cut immigration from the EU by enough and still ensure enough of the right people are coming here to work.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Wanderer said:

    Heh

    @wallaceme: Osborne bringing out defeated enemies Cable and Balls to speak has a slight air of Caesar parading Vercingetorix through the streets.

    lol
    Could have been worse. He could have forced them to do Queen Cersi's walk of shame in Game of Thrones.
    That would be punishing us not them
  • Options
    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Great post Mortimer, thanks.

    I would be interested in knowing how people define sovereignty and how also it affects them personally.

    So while I agree with you on the power of the concept of reclaiming sovereignty, I wonder how concrete a motivating force that will be when, on the way to the polling booths, people ponder what it actually means.

    Immigration I grant you is a clearer proposition, although again, by no means a concrete factor in most peoples' lives.

    It's a very concrete (and economic) factor in many people's lives, particularly in social groups C2/D - what Remain have on their side is that they simply don't vote.

    I'm increasingly wondering if Remain are running an AB campaign designer to appeal to ABs. Triple egg and chips has clearly has had some effect in this category.

    I'm not sure it's going to be decisive with C1/C2s and pensioners.
    How many is many? Are British plumbers suffering? British baristas? British hop-pickers? British builders?

    There is no doubt that the influx of EU workers has suppressed wages, but no more or less so than cheaper far east imports and we don't want to ban those, do we? In fact ISTR that most on here see the Far East, for example, as exactly the area with whom they want to increase trade.

    It's all a bit 19th century tbh.
    Well a mate of mine is an electrician, he says most of his contractor friends are for out. They know it will increase their wages if we restrict EU immigration.

    I think the point is that we are becoming a services economy much faster than anyone could have predicted, so those who provide the services are worried that their wages are flatlining due to labour importation. The production jobs have, sadly, disappeared already so importing more tat from China for less money than it can be imported from Germany probably makes some kind of sense.
    Of course, this works both ways. I guess this means I'm going to be paying more for electricians services in the future.
    I suspect not as much as the old days.

    The rise in MyBuilder, Findatradesman etc has given the consumer the kind of insight and leverage they never had fifteen years ago.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,723
    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Great post Mortimer, thanks.

    I would be interested in knowing how people define sovereignty and how also it affects them personally.

    So while I agree with you on the power of the concept of reclaiming sovereignty, I wonder how concrete a motivating force that will be when, on the way to the polling booths, people ponder what it actually means.

    Immigration I grant you is a clearer proposition, although again, by no means a concrete factor in most peoples' lives.

    It's a very concrete (and economic) factor in many people's lives, particularly in social groups C2/D - what Remain have on their side is that they simply don't vote.

    I'm increasingly wondering if Remain are running an AB campaign designer to appeal to ABs. Triple egg and chips has clearly has had some effect in this category.

    I'm not sure it's going to be decisive with C1/C2s and pensioners.
    How many is many? Are British plumbers suffering? British baristas? British hop-pickers? British builders?

    There is no doubt that the influx of EU workers has suppressed wages, but no more or less so than cheaper far east imports and we don't want to ban those, do we? In fact ISTR that most on here see the Far East, for example, as exactly the area with whom they want to increase trade.

    It's all a bit 19th century tbh.
    I think your posts proves my point. FWIW Stuart 'where is he?' Rose also believes it to be true.

    In many parts of the country, people see a real impact of migration on the shape of their communities, public services and as a brake on wages.
    Where?
    Peterborough comes to mind, swathes of the north, Kent, Essex and Elstree down south.
    Or this one?
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,459
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Great post Mortimer, thanks.

    I would be interested in knowing how people define sovereignty and how also it affects them personally.

    So while I agree with you on the power of the concept of reclaiming sovereignty, I wonder how concrete a motivating force that will be when, on the way to the polling booths, people ponder what it actually means.

    Immigration I grant you is a clearer proposition, although again, by no means a concrete factor in most peoples' lives.

    It's a very concrete (and economic) factor in many people's lives, particularly in social groups C2/D - what Remain have on their side is that they simply don't vote.

    I'm increasingly wondering if Remain are running an AB campaign designer to appeal to ABs. Triple egg and chips has clearly has had some effect in this category.

    I'm not sure it's going to be decisive with C1/C2s and pensioners.
    How many is many? Are British plumbers suffering? British baristas? British hop-pickers? British builders?

    There is no doubt that the influx of EU workers has suppressed wages, but no more or less so than cheaper far east imports and we don't want to ban those, do we? In fact ISTR that most on here see the Far East, for example, as exactly the area with whom they want to increase trade.

    It's all a bit 19th century tbh.
    Well a mate of mine is an electrician, he says most of his contractor friends are for out. They know it will increase their wages if we restrict EU immigration.

    I think the point is that we are becoming a services economy much faster than anyone could have predicted, so those who provide the services are worried that their wages are flatlining due to labour importation. The production jobs have, sadly, disappeared already so importing more tat from China for less money than it can be imported from Germany probably makes some kind of sense.

    Great - so we all get to pay more and receive slower, poorer quality service. I thought the right was against looking after producer interests.

    Again, I'm not advocating this argument, I'm personally not that bothered by immigration from the EU, could the numbers go down? Probably, but I don't think we need drastic measures to make that happen, making benefits wholly contributory and having mandatory health insurance required to obtain NI numbers is probably enough to cut immigration from the EU by enough and still ensure enough of the right people are coming here to work.
    And to achieve it without any bureaucracy, without distorting price signals, and while also bringing in a decent revenue stream for the exchequer.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 56,536
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Great post Mortimer, thanks.

    I would be interested in knowing how people define sovereignty and how also it affects them personally.

    So while I agree with you on the power of the concept of reclaiming sovereignty, I wonder how concrete a motivating force that will be when, on the way to the polling booths, people ponder what it actually means.

    Immigration I grant you is a clearer proposition, although again, by no means a concrete factor in most peoples' lives.

    It's a very concrete (and economic) factor in many people's lives, particularly in social groups C2/D - what Remain have on their side is that they simply don't vote.

    I'm increasingly wondering if Remain are running an AB campaign designer to appeal to ABs. Triple egg and chips has clearly has had some effect in this category.

    I'm not sure it's going to be decisive with C1/C2s and pensioners.
    How many is many? Are British plumbers suffering? British baristas? British hop-pickers? British builders?

    There is no doubt that the influx of EU workers has suppressed wages, but no more or less so than cheaper far east imports and we don't want to ban those, do we? In fact ISTR that most on here see the Far East, for example, as exactly the area with whom they want to increase trade.

    It's all a bit 19th century tbh.
    I think your posts proves my point. FWIW Stuart 'where is he?' Rose also believes it to be true.

    In many parts of the country, people see a real impact of migration on the shape of their communities, public services and as a brake on wages.
    Where?
    West Midlands, East Anglia, Kent, Essex, Lincolnshire and the North-West, plus most seaside towns, some of the Welsh valleys, and South West, in particular.

    London, the major metropolitan cities and the south-east less so, but I'd still expect a strong Leave vote from this demographic there as well.
  • Options
    MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792

    ...They like uncontrolled immigration, because it helps to keep wages down at the bottom end and so to control costs, and therefore to ensure that there is even more dosh for those at the top. A steady supply of hard-working immigrant labour means they don’t have to worry quite so much about the skills or aspirations or self-confidence of young people growing up in this country. And as denizens of Learjets and executive lounges, they are not usually exposed to some of the pressures of large-scale immigration, such as in A&E, or schools, or housing.

    Then there is a more insidious reason – that the whole EU system of regulation is so remote and opaque that they are able to use it to their advantage, to maintain their oligarchic position and, by keeping out competition, to push their pay packets even higher.

    In their brilliant book Why Nations Fail, Daron Acemoglu and James A Robinson explain how transparent political institutions are essential for innovation and economic growth. They make the distinction between “inclusive” societies, where people feel involved in their democracies and their economies, and “extractive” societies, where the system is increasingly gamed by an elite, for their own financial advantage. The EU is starting to take on some of the features of an “extractive” society. It is dominated by a group of powerful international civil servants, lobbyists and business people.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/15/of-course-our-city-fat-cats-love-the-eu--its-why-they-earn-so-mu/

    Is this the same Boris that supported an amnesty for illegal immigrants and who failed utterly to look after the interests of low-paid Londoners while he was mayor?


    Play the ball please.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,686
    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Great post Mortimer, thanks.

    I would be interested in knowing how people define sovereignty and how also it affects them personally.

    So while I agree with you on the power of the concept of reclaiming sovereignty, I wonder how concrete a motivating force that will be when, on the way to the polling booths, people ponder what it actually means.

    Immigration I grant you is a clearer proposition, although again, by no means a concrete factor in most peoples' lives.

    It's a very concrete (and economic) factor in many people's lives, particularly in social groups C2/D - what Remain have on their side is that they simply don't vote.

    I'm increasingly wondering if Remain are running an AB campaign designer to appeal to ABs. Triple egg and chips has clearly has had some effect in this category.

    I'm not sure it's going to be decisive with C1/C2s and pensioners.
    How many is many? Are British plumbers suffering? British baristas? British hop-pickers? British builders?

    There is no doubt that the influx of EU workers has suppressed wages, but no more or less so than cheaper far east imports and we don't want to ban those, do we? In fact ISTR that most on here see the Far East, for example, as exactly the area with whom they want to increase trade.

    It's all a bit 19th century tbh.
    I think your posts proves my point. FWIW Stuart 'where is he?' Rose also believes it to be true.

    In many parts of the country, people see a real impact of migration on the shape of their communities, public services and as a brake on wages.
    Where?
    Peterborough comes to mind, swathes of the north, Kent, Essex and Elstree down south.
    Or this one?
    Business leader wants cheap labour, shocking.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,723

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Great post Mortimer, thanks.

    I would be interested in knowing how people define sovereignty and how also it affects them personally.

    So while I agree with you on the power of the concept of reclaiming sovereignty, I wonder how concrete a motivating force that will be when, on the way to the polling booths, people ponder what it actually means.

    Immigration I grant you is a clearer proposition, although again, by no means a concrete factor in most peoples' lives.

    It's a very concrete (and economic) factor in many people's lives, particularly in social groups C2/D - what Remain have on their side is that they simply don't vote.

    I'm increasingly wondering if Remain are running an AB campaign designer to appeal to ABs. Triple egg and chips has clearly has had some effect in this category.

    I'm not sure it's going to be decisive with C1/C2s and pensioners.
    How many is many? Are British plumbers suffering? British baristas? British hop-pickers? British builders?

    There is no doubt that the influx of EU workers has suppressed wages, but no more or less so than cheaper far east imports and we don't want to ban those, do we? In fact ISTR that most on here see the Far East, for example, as exactly the area with whom they want to increase trade.

    It's all a bit 19th century tbh.
    I think your posts proves my point. FWIW Stuart 'where is he?' Rose also believes it to be true.

    In many parts of the country, people see a real impact of migration on the shape of their communities, public services and as a brake on wages.
    Where?
    West Midlands, East Anglia, Kent, Essex, Lincolnshire and the North-West, plus most seaside towns, some of the Welsh valleys, and South West, in particular.

    London, the major metropolitan cities and the south-east less so, but I'd still expect a strong Leave vote from this demographic there as well.
    Hmm. Give me a town pls. We have already looked at Peterborough here and here.
  • Options
    tysontyson Posts: 6,055
    Well done Casino old chap.

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Great post Mortimer, thanks.

    I would be interested in knowing how people define sovereignty and how also it affects them personally.

    So while I agree with you on the power of the concept of reclaiming sovereignty, I wonder how concrete a motivating force that will be when, on the way to the polling booths, people ponder what it actually means.

    Immigration I grant you is a clearer proposition, although again, by no means a concrete factor in most peoples' lives.

    It's a very concrete (and economic) factor in many people's lives, particularly in social groups C2/D - what Remain have on their side is that they simply don't vote.

    I'm increasingly wondering if Remain are running an AB campaign designer to appeal to ABs. Triple egg and chips has clearly has had some effect in this category.

    I'm not sure it's going to be decisive with C1/C2s and pensioners.
    How many is many? Are British plumbers suffering? British baristas? British hop-pickers? British builders?

    There is no doubt that the influx of EU workers has suppressed wages, but no more or less so than cheaper far east imports and we don't want to ban those, do we? In fact ISTR that most on here see the Far East, for example, as exactly the area with whom they want to increase trade.

    It's all a bit 19th century tbh.
    You can't be serious about increasing the wealth of this country unless you're prepared to exterminate lefties wholesale.

    You need help.

    I've lost count of the number of times you've posted this.
  • Options
    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,371
    I can therefore also be realistic over problems that having several competing Leave camps has created – not least the apparent fall-out between Vote Leave and Nigel Farage this week over TV debates.

    What I find notable is how moderate the UKIP faction now seems compared to the one being led by the eurosceptic Tories. With Farage it was always: we wish the EU well with its project, even have some sympathy for it, but ultimately it just isn't for us. Remember when the term 'amicable divorce' was in vogue? In comparison the other lot just seem to be wantonly destructive. Talk of Hitler and Fourth Reichs. (On here yesterday those favouring EU membership were likened to Chamberlain and the Appeasers.) Talk of using Brexit to smash up the rest of the EU too. It has a feel almost of anarchy about it. Is it because the Tories are more used to the constraints of government, and see this as an exercise in letting their hair down? Are they following the Trump model - the more you ratchet up the rhetoric, the less vulnerable you become. It's a curious phenomenon.
  • Options
    Innocent_AbroadInnocent_Abroad Posts: 3,294
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Great post Mortimer, thanks.

    I would be interested in knowing how people define sovereignty and how also it affects them personally.

    So while I agree with you on the power of the concept of reclaiming sovereignty, I wonder how concrete a motivating force that will be when, on the way to the polling booths, people ponder what it actually means.

    Immigration I grant you is a clearer proposition, although again, by no means a concrete factor in most peoples' lives.

    It's a very concrete (and economic) factor in many people's lives, particularly in social groups C2/D - what Remain have on their side is that they simply don't vote.


    There is no doubt that the influx of EU workers has suppressed wages, but no more or less so than cheaper far east imports and we don't want to ban those, do we? In fact ISTR that most on here see the Far East, for example, as exactly the area with whom they want to increase trade.

    It's all a bit 19th century tbh.
    Well a mate of mine is an electrician, he says most of his contractor friends are for out. They know it will increase their wages if we restrict EU immigration.

    I think the point is that we are becoming a services economy much faster than anyone could have predicted, so those who provide the services are worried that their wages are flatlining due to labour importation. The production jobs have, sadly, disappeared already so importing more tat from China for less money than it can be imported from Germany probably makes some kind of sense.

    Great - so we all get to pay more and receive slower, poorer quality service. I thought the right was against looking after producer interests.

    Again, I'm not advocating this argument, I'm personally not that bothered by immigration from the EU, could the numbers go down? Probably, but I don't think we need drastic measures to make that happen, making benefits wholly contributory and having mandatory health insurance required to obtain NI numbers is probably enough to cut immigration from the EU by enough and still ensure enough of the right people are coming here to work.
    And to achieve it without any bureaucracy, without distorting price signals, and while also bringing in a decent revenue stream for the exchequer.
    Despite what CR thinks, that does rather presuppose that there are no lefties either amongst the would-be immigrants or the bureaucrats assessing them.

    Sooner or later the penny will drop - Parliamentary democracy has failed and we need a Strong Leader ...
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,686
    rcs1000 said:

    And to achieve it without any bureaucracy, without distorting price signals, and while also bringing in a decent revenue stream for the exchequer.

    Indeed, if we say £2000 for insurance for 100,000 migrants per year it keeps a few nurses in a job.
  • Options
    Innocent_AbroadInnocent_Abroad Posts: 3,294
    tyson said:

    Well done Casino old chap.

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Great post Mortimer, thanks.

    I would be interested in knowing how people define sovereignty and how also it affects them personally.

    So while I agree with you on the power of the concept of reclaiming sovereignty, I wonder how concrete a motivating force that will be when, on the way to the polling booths, people ponder what it actually means.

    Immigration I grant you is a clearer proposition, although again, by no means a concrete factor in most peoples' lives.

    It's a very concrete (and economic) factor in many people's lives, particularly in social groups C2/D - what Remain have on their side is that they simply don't vote.

    I'm increasingly wondering if Remain are running an AB campaign designer to appeal to ABs. Triple egg and chips has clearly has had some effect in this category.

    I'm not sure it's going to be decisive with C1/C2s and pensioners.
    How many is many? Are British plumbers suffering? British baristas? British hop-pickers? British builders?

    There is no doubt that the influx of EU workers has suppressed wages, but no more or less so than cheaper far east imports and we don't want to ban those, do we? In fact ISTR that most on here see the Far East, for example, as exactly the area with whom they want to increase trade.

    It's all a bit 19th century tbh.
    You can't be serious about increasing the wealth of this country unless you're prepared to exterminate lefties wholesale.

    You need help.

    I've lost count of the number of times you've posted this.
    Tyson, are you going to ask the Moderator to ban me? And if not, why not?

  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,896
    Many more children are hidden from the authorities in unregistered schools across England than previously thought, Ofsted's chief inspector has said.

    Sir Michael Wilshaw said a crackdown by Ofsted officials had found more than 100 suspected unregistered schools.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-36302054
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,723
    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Great post Mortimer, thanks.

    I would be interested in knowing how people define sovereignty and how also it affects them personally.

    So while I agree with you on the power of the concept of reclaiming sovereignty, I wonder how concrete a motivating force that will be when, on the way to the polling booths, people ponder what it actually means.

    Immigration I grant you is a clearer proposition, although again, by no means a concrete factor in most peoples' lives.

    It's a very concrete (and economic) factor in many people's lives, particularly in social groups C2/D - what Remain have on their side is that they simply don't vote.

    I'm increasingly wondering if Remain are running an AB campaign designer to appeal to ABs. Triple egg and chips has clearly has had some effect in this category.

    I'm not sure it's going to be decisive with C1/C2s and pensioners.
    How many is many? Are British plumbers suffering? British baristas? British hop-pickers? British builders?

    There is no doubt that the influx of EU workers has suppressed wages, but no more or less so than cheaper far east imports and we don't want to ban those, do we? In fact ISTR that most on here see the Far East, for example, as exactly the area with whom they want to increase trade.

    It's all a bit 19th century tbh.
    I think your posts proves my point. FWIW Stuart 'where is he?' Rose also believes it to be true.

    In many parts of the country, people see a real impact of migration on the shape of their communities, public services and as a brake on wages.
    Where?
    Peterborough comes to mind, swathes of the north, Kent, Essex and Elstree down south.
    Or this one?
    Business leader wants cheap labour, shocking.
    well exactly, and as you say upthread, it is not an issue for you. But we are being told that immigration is a critical issue for many parts of the country whereas in your very own example, the unemployment rate in Peterborough is lower than the national average. I suspect that in the many other areas cited by @Casino_Royale there may be a similar story in some of them.

    So as with sovereignty, immigration to a certain (but I accept less) extent is a nebulous "cry freedom" issue rather than a concrete factor in most peoples' lives.
  • Options
    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    Here is England's 26-man provisional squad for the European Championships.

    Goalkeepers: Joe Hart, Fraser Forster, Tom Heaton.

    Defenders: Nathaniel Clyne, Kyle Walker, Gary Cahill, Chris Smalling, John Stones, Ryan Bertrand, Danny Rose.

    Midfielders: Dele Alli, Ross Barkley, Fabian Delph, Eric Dier, Danny Drinkwater, Jordan Henderson, Adam Lallana, James Milner, Raheem Sterling, Andros Townsend, Jack Wilshere.

    Strikers: Harry Kane, Marcus Rashford, Wayne Rooney, Daniel Sturridge, Jamie Vardy.


    This is to be reduced to a final 23 to go. Which three should be excluded?

    I suggest we don't need three goalkeepers and Henderson and Wilshere are not match fit.

    Delph, Rashford, and Drinkwater.

    Those aren't my choices, but what I expect Roy to do.
    I think Roy made it pretty clear in the press conference that Rashford was highly unlikely to go.
    As someone who cannot abide football I hope to see an early exit for ALL the so -called home nations.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,146
    Charles said:

    Wanderer said:

    Heh

    @wallaceme: Osborne bringing out defeated enemies Cable and Balls to speak has a slight air of Caesar parading Vercingetorix through the streets.

    lol
    Could have been worse. He could have forced them to do Queen Cersi's walk of shame in Game of Thrones.
    That would be punishing us not them
    Not as harsh as some of the Byzantine Emperors, who would display blinded, castrated, rivals to the crowds in the Hippodrome, in order to demonstrate their Sacred Clemency.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,459

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Great post Mortimer, thanks.

    I would be interested in knowing how people define sovereignty and how also it affects them personally.

    So while I agree with you on the power of the concept of reclaiming sovereignty, I wonder how concrete a motivating force that will be when, on the way to the polling booths, people ponder what it actually means.

    Immigration I grant you is a clearer proposition, although again, by no means a concrete factor in most peoples' lives.

    It's a very concrete (and economic) factor in many people's lives, particularly in social groups C2/D - what Remain have on their side is that they simply don't vote.


    There is no doubt that the influx of EU workers has suppressed wages, but no more or less so than cheaper far east imports and we don't want to ban those, do we? In fact ISTR that most on here see the Far East, for example, as exactly the area with whom they want to increase trade.

    It's all a bit 19th century tbh.
    Well a mate of mine is an electrician, he says most of his contractor friends are for out. They know it will increase their wages if we restrict EU immigration.

    I think the point is that we are becoming a services economy much faster than anyone could have predicted, so those who provide the services are worried that their wages are flatlining due to labour importation. The production jobs have, sadly, disappeared already so importing more tat from China for less money than it can be imported from Germany probably makes some kind of sense.

    Great - so we all get to pay more and receive slower, poorer quality service. I thought the right was against looking after producer interests.

    Again, I'm not advocating this argument, I'm personally not that bothered by immigration from the EU, could the numbers go down? Probably, but I don't think we need drastic measures to make that happen, making benefits wholly contributory and having mandatory health insurance required to obtain NI numbers is probably enough to cut immigration from the EU by enough and still ensure enough of the right people are coming here to work.
    And to achieve it without any bureaucracy, without distorting price signals, and while also bringing in a decent revenue stream for the exchequer.
    Despite what CR thinks, that does rather presuppose that there are no lefties either amongst the would-be immigrants or the bureaucrats assessing them.

    Sooner or later the penny will drop - Parliamentary democracy has failed and we need a Strong Leader ...
    Bit confused by your nesting
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,073
    I rarely ask for retweets etc, but this one is taking the piss out of a Guardian chap claiming fantasy's implicitly about social justice. So, please do RT:
    https://twitter.com/HeroOfHornska/status/732161462878113793

    [Those of you who've read Sir Edric's shenanigans will be aware he's not exactly a social justice warrior].
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,070
    Charles said:

    tyson said:

    Actually the car industry is a classic example of why the concept of nation states as Brexiters would like is long dead. Companies with head offices based in one country, their brand bought from another, financed in another, paying taxes in another, regulated by another.....

    Brexit represents a combination of romanticism and sentimentalism. A yearning for some kind of throwback to how things used to be. It is little wonder that conservatives are attracted to it. But in this era of uncertainty it would not surprise me one jot if sufficient numbers were attracted to it to record a no vote. I am going to start betting accordingly.

    Nissan has admitted the Qashqai models allegedly fitted with so-called emissions defeat devices were built at its Sunderland plant in the UK.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36299555

    No necessarily. The EU restricts our ability to make ourselves attractive locations for the most high value part of the innovation chain.

    eg. German protests leading to the EU ruling out the patent box (which was a combination of Vince and George, I think, although Labour tried to claim it for themselves)

    The Patent Box was Alastair Darling's idea and was then taken up by Osborne. It is still in force, but has been modified to follow OECD recommendations:

    http://www.out-law.com/en/articles/2015/october/uk-to-modify-patent-box-in-line-with-oecd-recommendations/

  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,459
    justin124 said:

    Here is England's 26-man provisional squad for the European Championships.

    Goalkeepers: Joe Hart, Fraser Forster, Tom Heaton.

    Defenders: Nathaniel Clyne, Kyle Walker, Gary Cahill, Chris Smalling, John Stones, Ryan Bertrand, Danny Rose.

    Midfielders: Dele Alli, Ross Barkley, Fabian Delph, Eric Dier, Danny Drinkwater, Jordan Henderson, Adam Lallana, James Milner, Raheem Sterling, Andros Townsend, Jack Wilshere.

    Strikers: Harry Kane, Marcus Rashford, Wayne Rooney, Daniel Sturridge, Jamie Vardy.


    This is to be reduced to a final 23 to go. Which three should be excluded?

    I suggest we don't need three goalkeepers and Henderson and Wilshere are not match fit.

    Delph, Rashford, and Drinkwater.

    Those aren't my choices, but what I expect Roy to do.
    I think Roy made it pretty clear in the press conference that Rashford was highly unlikely to go.
    As someone who cannot abide football I hope to see an early exit for ALL the so -called home nations.
    As the creator of a football scores app, I have no time at all for your views!

    Go Crowdscores, Go!
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,073
    Mr. F, blame Flavius Phocas for kicking that off.

    Want some chaos theory? If Maurice had bought his soldiers new sandals, Islam might never have taken hold in the Middle East.
  • Options
    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Great post Mortimer, thanks.

    I would be interested in knowing how people define sovereignty and how also it affects them personally.

    So while I agree with you on the power of the concept of reclaiming sovereignty, I wonder how concrete a motivating force that will be when, on the way to the polling booths, people ponder what it actually means.

    Immigration I grant you is a clearer proposition, although again, by no means a concrete factor in most peoples' lives.

    It's a very concrete (and economic) factor in many people's lives, particularly in social groups C2/D - what Remain have on their side is that they simply don't vote.

    I'm increasingly wondering if Remain are running an AB campaign designer to appeal to ABs. Triple egg and chips has clearly has had some effect in this category.

    I'm not sure it's going to be decisive with C1/C2s and pensioners.
    How many is many? Are British plumbers suffering? British baristas? British hop-pickers? British builders?

    There is no doubt that the influx of EU workers has suppressed wages, but no more or less so than cheaper far east imports and we don't want to ban those, do we? In fact ISTR that most on here see the Far East, for example, as exactly the area with whom they want to increase trade.

    It's all a bit 19th century tbh.
    I think your posts proves my point. FWIW Stuart 'where is he?' Rose also believes it to be true.

    In many parts of the country, people see a real impact of migration on the shape of their communities, public services and as a brake on wages.
    Where?
    Peterborough comes to mind, swathes of the north, Kent, Essex and Elstree down south.
    Or this one?
    Business leader wants cheap labour, shocking.

    Business leaders don't want cheap labour they want value for money labour.
  • Options
    tysontyson Posts: 6,055
    Of course not. It's just good form for Casino (a thoroughly good fellow all round I might add), and a staunch righty, taking the attack to your kind of silly posting.

    tyson said:

    Well done Casino old chap.

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Great post Mortimer, thanks.

    I would be interested in knowing how people define sovereignty and how also it affects them personally.

    So while I agree with you on the power of the concept of reclaiming sovereignty, I wonder how concrete a motivating force that will be when, on the way to the polling booths, people ponder what it actually means.

    Immigration I grant you is a clearer proposition, although again, by no means a concrete factor in most peoples' lives.

    It's a very concrete (and economic) factor in many people's lives, particularly in social groups C2/D - what Remain have on their side is that they simply don't vote.

    I'm increasingly wondering if Remain are running an AB campaign designer to appeal to ABs. Triple egg and chips has clearly has had some effect in this category.

    I'm not sure it's going to be decisive with C1/C2s and pensioners.
    How many is many? Are British plumbers suffering? British baristas? British hop-pickers? British builders?

    There is no doubt that the influx of EU workers has suppressed wages, but no more or less so than cheaper far east imports and we don't want to ban those, do we? In fact ISTR that most on here see the Far East, for example, as exactly the area with whom they want to increase trade.

    It's all a bit 19th century tbh.
    You can't be serious about increasing the wealth of this country unless you're prepared to exterminate lefties wholesale.

    You need help.

    I've lost count of the number of times you've posted this.
    Tyson, are you going to ask the Moderator to ban me? And if not, why not?

  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,070
    It is far from clear that that EU immigration has driven down wages or increased the burden on public services:

    http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit05.pdf
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,686
    TOPPING said:

    well exactly, and as you say upthread, it is not an issue for you. But we are being told that immigration is a critical issue for many parts of the country whereas in your very own example, the unemployment rate in Peterborough is lower than the national average. I suspect that in the many other areas cited by @Casino_Royale there may be a similar story in some of them.

    So as with sovereignty, immigration to a certain (but I accept less) extent is a nebulous "cry freedom" issue rather than a concrete factor in most peoples' lives.

    Just because it isn't an issue for me, it doesn't mean it isn't an issue for those it affects. Honestly it's sneering attitudes like this that make people think the Remain camp is full of a bunch of numpties sometimes. Over half of employment growth in this country came from migrant labour last year. The unemployment stats only tell half the story, without being able to see the inactivity rate and the absolute employment figures for the area or region the one stat alone is worthless.

    Your idea that sovereignty and immigration are imaginary problems is doing you no favours.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 56,536
    tyson said:

    Of course not. It's just good form for Casino (a thoroughly good fellow all round I might add), and a staunch righty, taking the attack to your kind of silly posting.


    tyson said:

    Well done Casino old chap.

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Great post Mortimer, thanks.

    I would be interested in knowing how people define sovereignty and how also it affects them personally.

    So while I agree with you on the power of the concept of reclaiming sovereignty, I wonder how concrete a motivating force that will be when, on the way to the polling booths, people ponder what it actually means.

    Immigration I grant you is a clearer proposition, although again, by no means a concrete factor in most peoples' lives.

    It's a very concrete (and economic) factor in many people's lives, particularly in social groups C2/D - what Remain have on their side is that they simply don't vote.

    I'm increasingly wondering if Remain are running an AB campaign designer to appeal to ABs. Triple egg and chips has clearly has had some effect in this category.

    I'm not sure it's going to be decisive with C1/C2s and pensioners.
    How many is many? Are British plumbers suffering? British baristas? British hop-pickers? British builders?

    There is no doubt that the influx of EU workers has suppressed wages, but no more or less so than cheaper far east imports and we don't want to ban those, do we? In fact ISTR that most on here see the Far East, for example, as exactly the area with whom they want to increase trade.

    It's all a bit 19th century tbh.
    You can't be serious about increasing the wealth of this country unless you're prepared to exterminate lefties wholesale.

    You need help.

    I've lost count of the number of times you've posted this.
    Tyson, are you going to ask the Moderator to ban me? And if not, why not?

    Thanks.
  • Options
    tysontyson Posts: 6,055
    I don't actually trust a bloke who doesn't like football or a few pints at the pub.....
    rcs1000 said:

    justin124 said:

    Here is England's 26-man provisional squad for the European Championships.

    Goalkeepers: Joe Hart, Fraser Forster, Tom Heaton.

    Defenders: Nathaniel Clyne, Kyle Walker, Gary Cahill, Chris Smalling, John Stones, Ryan Bertrand, Danny Rose.

    Midfielders: Dele Alli, Ross Barkley, Fabian Delph, Eric Dier, Danny Drinkwater, Jordan Henderson, Adam Lallana, James Milner, Raheem Sterling, Andros Townsend, Jack Wilshere.

    Strikers: Harry Kane, Marcus Rashford, Wayne Rooney, Daniel Sturridge, Jamie Vardy.


    This is to be reduced to a final 23 to go. Which three should be excluded?

    I suggest we don't need three goalkeepers and Henderson and Wilshere are not match fit.

    Delph, Rashford, and Drinkwater.

    Those aren't my choices, but what I expect Roy to do.
    I think Roy made it pretty clear in the press conference that Rashford was highly unlikely to go.
    As someone who cannot abide football I hope to see an early exit for ALL the so -called home nations.
    As the creator of a football scores app, I have no time at all for your views!

    Go Crowdscores, Go!
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    PBers should be mindful that referencing Peterborough always requires a huge dollop of sympathy for the poor citizens of that city given their quite appalling luck in their present and former MP.

    Quite what Peterborough has done to deserve such a pair of quite appalling duffers might only be imagined. Just so very sad.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,723
    edited May 2016
    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    well exactly, and as you say upthread, it is not an issue for you. But we are being told that immigration is a critical issue for many parts of the country whereas in your very own example, the unemployment rate in Peterborough is lower than the national average. I suspect that in the many other areas cited by @Casino_Royale there may be a similar story in some of them.

    So as with sovereignty, immigration to a certain (but I accept less) extent is a nebulous "cry freedom" issue rather than a concrete factor in most peoples' lives.

    Just because it isn't an issue for me, it doesn't mean it isn't an issue for those it affects. Honestly it's sneering attitudes like this that make people think the Remain camp is full of a bunch of numpties sometimes. Over half of employment growth in this country came from migrant labour last year. The unemployment stats only tell half the story, without being able to see the inactivity rate and the absolute employment figures for the area or region the one stat alone is worthless.

    Your idea that sovereignty and immigration are imaginary problems is doing you no favours.
    yeah whatever. I am supposed to be sneering and yet you are being offended or worried or greatly exercised by a bunch of people whose views you don't share, yet whose supposed plight you have taken upon yourself to address.

    Patronising, much?
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,896
    justin124 said:

    Here is England's 26-man provisional squad for the European Championships.

    Goalkeepers: Joe Hart, Fraser Forster, Tom Heaton.

    Defenders: Nathaniel Clyne, Kyle Walker, Gary Cahill, Chris Smalling, John Stones, Ryan Bertrand, Danny Rose.

    Midfielders: Dele Alli, Ross Barkley, Fabian Delph, Eric Dier, Danny Drinkwater, Jordan Henderson, Adam Lallana, James Milner, Raheem Sterling, Andros Townsend, Jack Wilshere.

    Strikers: Harry Kane, Marcus Rashford, Wayne Rooney, Daniel Sturridge, Jamie Vardy.


    This is to be reduced to a final 23 to go. Which three should be excluded?

    I suggest we don't need three goalkeepers and Henderson and Wilshere are not match fit.

    Delph, Rashford, and Drinkwater.

    Those aren't my choices, but what I expect Roy to do.
    I think Roy made it pretty clear in the press conference that Rashford was highly unlikely to go.
    As someone who cannot abide football I hope to see an early exit for ALL the so -called home nations.
    Well aren't you a happy chappy....
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,073
    Mr. Tyson, surely you trust men who like F1?
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,686

    It is far from clear that that EU immigration has driven down wages or increased the burden on public services:

    http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit05.pdf

    Tell that to the plumber who gets told that his new day rate is decreasing to £120 because the new guy from Poland is going to do it for that price. I'm sure he'll read that study with great interest.

    Honestly, it's like the Remain side are sitting atop an ivory tower sneering down at anyone who dares bring up some of the negatives of immigration, and I'm not even that bothered by it.
  • Options

    The obvious attraction of an early election is that Labour will still be led by Corbyn. The downside is will the old boundaries still apply?

    Yes old boundaries apply. Need to get into 2018.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,146

    Mr. F, blame Flavius Phocas for kicking that off.

    Want some chaos theory? If Maurice had bought his soldiers new sandals, Islam might never have taken hold in the Middle East.

    It shows how one man can change events. Phocas wrecked the Empire in ten years, notwithstanding years of good government by Anastasius, Justinian, and Maurice, and subsequently by Heraclius.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 56,536
    @Topping

    It is not my business to correct Remain's mistakes. For example, the second link you post from Peterborough is the boss of a large company telling it how it is - by definition, from social group AB.

    On unemployment, it's perfectly possible for official figures to fall whilst wages remain stagnant, and they experience unwanted social change in their local area with no tools to escape or take advantage of it.

    I think for you immigration isn't an issue at all whereas you fear your finances might be affected if we Leave. For others, it is the precise opposite.
  • Options
    tysontyson Posts: 6,055
    I must admit Morris, I find your enthusiasm for F1 one of the joyous eccentricities of pbCOM.

    Mr. Tyson, surely you trust men who like F1?

  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,070
    MaxPB said:

    It is far from clear that that EU immigration has driven down wages or increased the burden on public services:

    http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit05.pdf

    Tell that to the plumber who gets told that his new day rate is decreasing to £120 because the new guy from Poland is going to do it for that price. I'm sure he'll read that study with great interest.

    Honestly, it's like the Remain side are sitting atop an ivory tower sneering down at anyone who dares bring up some of the negatives of immigration, and I'm not even that bothered by it.

    Pointing out research that does not fit your narrative is not sneering. Sorry.

  • Options
    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Fair to say, Mirror readers aren't very keen on Cameron

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/david-cameron-writes-mirror-dont-7978638
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,338
    Charles said:

    tyson said:

    http://www.eveningnews24.co.uk/news/politics/brexit_takes_the_lead_in_our_eu_referendum_poll_1_4536219


    Interesting poll from the SE. Major swing to leave in SE. Is this going to be mirrored elsewhere.

    East Anglia won't thank you for describing them as being in the SE...
    So East Anglia has gone from +4% to +9% for Brexit. An object lesson to Mr Meeks about how to let your disappointment in Norwich's relegation manifest itself....
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,686
    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    well exactly, and as you say upthread, it is not an issue for you. But we are being told that immigration is a critical issue for many parts of the country whereas in your very own example, the unemployment rate in Peterborough is lower than the national average. I suspect that in the many other areas cited by @Casino_Royale there may be a similar story in some of them.

    So as with sovereignty, immigration to a certain (but I accept less) extent is a nebulous "cry freedom" issue rather than a concrete factor in most peoples' lives.

    Just because it isn't an issue for me, it doesn't mean it isn't an issue for those it affects. Honestly it's sneering attitudes like this that make people think the Remain camp is full of a bunch of numpties sometimes. Over half of employment growth in this country came from migrant labour last year. The unemployment stats only tell half the story, without being able to see the inactivity rate and the absolute employment figures for the area or region the one stat alone is worthless.

    Your idea that sovereignty and immigration are imaginary problems is doing you no favours.
    yeah whatever. I am supposed to be sneering and yet you are being offended or worried or greatly exercised by a bunch of people whose views you don't share, yet whose supposed plight you have taken upon yourself to address.

    Patronising, much?
    Where have I taken up their cause? I've said countless times I'm not in favour of reducing immigration. I can understand why some people are, it doesn't worry me at all. If you can't make that distinction then why are we bothering to go round in circles.
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,070

    Charles said:

    tyson said:

    http://www.eveningnews24.co.uk/news/politics/brexit_takes_the_lead_in_our_eu_referendum_poll_1_4536219


    Interesting poll from the SE. Major swing to leave in SE. Is this going to be mirrored elsewhere.

    East Anglia won't thank you for describing them as being in the SE...
    So East Anglia has gone from +4% to +9% for Brexit. An object lesson to Mr Meeks about how to let your disappointment in Norwich's relegation manifest itself....

    You may want to take a look at the methodology.

  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,073
    Mr. Tyson, joyous *and* profitable :D

    Mr. F, not just Phocas himself, deposing Maurice led to prolonged war with Persia/Chosroes. But for that, Islam would have had a far harder time establishing itself early on. Instead, it faced two exhausted empires ripe for a kicking.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,338

    Charles said:

    tyson said:

    http://www.eveningnews24.co.uk/news/politics/brexit_takes_the_lead_in_our_eu_referendum_poll_1_4536219


    Interesting poll from the SE. Major swing to leave in SE. Is this going to be mirrored elsewhere.

    East Anglia won't thank you for describing them as being in the SE...
    So East Anglia has gone from +4% to +9% for Brexit. An object lesson to Mr Meeks about how to let your disappointment in Norwich's relegation manifest itself....

    You may want to take a look at the methodology.

    Don't tell me they used East Anglian finger counting again?
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,723
    MaxPB said:

    It is far from clear that that EU immigration has driven down wages or increased the burden on public services:

    http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit05.pdf

    Tell that to the plumber who gets told that his new day rate is decreasing to £120 because the new guy from Poland is going to do it for that price. I'm sure he'll read that study with great interest.

    Honestly, it's like the Remain side are sitting atop an ivory tower sneering down at anyone who dares bring up some of the negatives of immigration, and I'm not even that bothered by it.
    LOL we are feeling sorry for plumbers, now!??

    Do you have any idea how much plumbers charge these days?
  • Options
    A good balanced thread Mortimer.

    The news this lunchtime is that REMAIN have pushed forward their 2nd "best" front man George Osborne to convince the voters to go for LEAVE.... Well, that will be the impact of Osborne who has personal ratings in the sewer.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,686
    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    It is far from clear that that EU immigration has driven down wages or increased the burden on public services:

    http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit05.pdf

    Tell that to the plumber who gets told that his new day rate is decreasing to £120 because the new guy from Poland is going to do it for that price. I'm sure he'll read that study with great interest.

    Honestly, it's like the Remain side are sitting atop an ivory tower sneering down at anyone who dares bring up some of the negatives of immigration, and I'm not even that bothered by it.
    LOL we are feeling sorry for plumbers, now!??

    Do you have any idea how much plumbers charge these days?
    I just had a water softener fitted so believe me I do!
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,146

    @Topping

    It is not my business to correct Remain's mistakes. For example, the second link you post from Peterborough is the boss of a large company telling it how it is - by definition, from social group AB.

    On unemployment, it's perfectly possible for official figures to fall whilst wages remain stagnant, and they experience unwanted social change in their local area with no tools to escape or take advantage of it.

    I think for you immigration isn't an issue at all whereas you fear your finances might be affected if we Leave. For others, it is the precise opposite.

    Static real wages for what the Americans call "the middle class" (not our definition) are a feature of almost every Western economy now. High levels of immigration are one cause (though certainly not the only one).
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    Mr. Tyson, surely you trust men who like F1?

    Certainly not.

    Persons who favour any chap spraying perfectly drinkable champers over sweaty rivals in public having just gone round in circles for two hours is a DRS short of an overtaking manoeuvre.
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    Innocent_AbroadInnocent_Abroad Posts: 3,294
    JackW said:

    Mr. Tyson, surely you trust men who like F1?

    Certainly not.

    Persons who favour any chap spraying perfectly drinkable champers over sweaty rivals in public having just gone round in circles for two hours is a DRS short of an overtaking manoeuvre.
    :):):)
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    edited May 2016

    A good balanced thread Mortimer.

    The news this lunchtime is that REMAIN have pushed forward their 2nd "best" front man George Osborne to convince the voters to go for LEAVE.... Well, that will be the impact of Osborne who has personal ratings in the sewer.

    Having a giant RyanAir advert in the background - and Ed Balls! It's a winner.

    Oddly, it reminded me in all the wrong ways of Trump bragging about owning his own plane - yet getting a huge whoop of applause.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,073
    Mr. W, some men don't need DRS.

    Verstappen was only just old enough to drink the champagne he won.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 56,536
    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    well exactly, and as you say upthread, it is not an issue for you. But we are being told that immigration is a critical issue for many parts of the country whereas in your very own example, the unemployment rate in Peterborough is lower than the national average. I suspect that in the many other areas cited by @Casino_Royale there may be a similar story in some of them.

    So as with sovereignty, immigration to a certain (but I accept less) extent is a nebulous "cry freedom" issue rather than a concrete factor in most peoples' lives.

    Just because it isn't an issue for me, it doesn't mean it isn't an issue for those it affects. Honestly it's sneering attitudes like this that make people think the Remain camp is full of a bunch of numpties sometimes. Over half of employment growth in this country came from migrant labour last year. The unemployment stats only tell half the story, without being able to see the inactivity rate and the absolute employment figures for the area or region the one stat alone is worthless.

    Your idea that sovereignty and immigration are imaginary problems is doing you no favours.
    yeah whatever. I am supposed to be sneering and yet you are being offended or worried or greatly exercised by a bunch of people whose views you don't share, yet whose supposed plight you have taken upon yourself to address.

    Patronising, much?
    Where have I taken up their cause? I've said countless times I'm not in favour of reducing immigration. I can understand why some people are, it doesn't worry me at all. If you can't make that distinction then why are we bothering to go round in circles.
    I am. I think current levels are unsustainable and do not command public support.

    I would support high-skilled immigration of between 100-175k per year, depending upon where we're at in our economic cycle.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,500
    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    It is far from clear that that EU immigration has driven down wages or increased the burden on public services:

    http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit05.pdf

    Tell that to the plumber who gets told that his new day rate is decreasing to £120 because the new guy from Poland is going to do it for that price. I'm sure he'll read that study with great interest.

    Honestly, it's like the Remain side are sitting atop an ivory tower sneering down at anyone who dares bring up some of the negatives of immigration, and I'm not even that bothered by it.
    LOL we are feeling sorry for plumbers, now!??

    Do you have any idea how much plumbers charge these days?
    Nope but its the wage deflation and lack of pay rises that mean that there are an awful large people who view immigration as the cause for the destruction of their old standard of living.

  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,093
    Looking through various statistics (Goals Against: Mainly), nationalities (Plenty of foreigners not so many English) and appearances I can only conclude that the first Man United player in the starting eleven has to be not Wayne Rooney, rather Chris Smalling.
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,070
    Sean_F said:

    @Topping

    It is not my business to correct Remain's mistakes. For example, the second link you post from Peterborough is the boss of a large company telling it how it is - by definition, from social group AB.

    On unemployment, it's perfectly possible for official figures to fall whilst wages remain stagnant, and they experience unwanted social change in their local area with no tools to escape or take advantage of it.

    I think for you immigration isn't an issue at all whereas you fear your finances might be affected if we Leave. For others, it is the precise opposite.

    Static real wages for what the Americans call "the middle class" (not our definition) are a feature of almost every Western economy now. High levels of immigration are one cause (though certainly not the only one).

    A sustained and deep global recession may be a more likely contender. Isn't it the case that wages are flat-lining in countries without large scale immigration too and in countries which are net exporters of people?

  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    Charles said:

    tyson said:

    http://www.eveningnews24.co.uk/news/politics/brexit_takes_the_lead_in_our_eu_referendum_poll_1_4536219


    Interesting poll from the SE. Major swing to leave in SE. Is this going to be mirrored elsewhere.

    East Anglia won't thank you for describing them as being in the SE...
    So East Anglia has gone from +4% to +9% for Brexit. An object lesson to Mr Meeks about how to let your disappointment in Norwich's relegation manifest itself....

    You may want to take a look at the methodology.

    Don't tell me they used East Anglian finger counting again?
    They tried to poll in Norfolk but were unable to find sufficient voters to meet the "unrelated" data set criteria among the entire population .... :smile:
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,723

    @Topping

    It is not my business to correct Remain's mistakes. For example, the second link you post from Peterborough is the boss of a large company telling it how it is - by definition, from social group AB.

    On unemployment, it's perfectly possible for official figures to fall whilst wages remain stagnant, and they experience unwanted social change in their local area with no tools to escape or take advantage of it.

    I think for you immigration isn't an issue at all whereas you fear your finances might be affected if we Leave. For others, it is the precise opposite.

    I did say that I get the immigration issue more than I get the sovereignty one.

    And then I asked for an example and @MaxPB popped up and shot back with Peterborough as an example of the cataclysm but we see that in Peterborough local business owners favour staying in the EU and also that unemployment is better than the national average and hence we got sidetracked.
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    The obvious attraction of an early election is that Labour will still be led by Corbyn. The downside is will the old boundaries still apply?

    Yes old boundaries apply. Need to get into 2018.
    2019 really - no vote before Autumn 2018 and even then the proposals may be thrown out.
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822

    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    well exactly, and as you say upthread, it is not an issue for you. But we are being told that immigration is a critical issue for many parts of the country whereas in your very own example, the unemployment rate in Peterborough is lower than the national average. I suspect that in the many other areas cited by @Casino_Royale there may be a similar story in some of them.

    So as with sovereignty, immigration to a certain (but I accept less) extent is a nebulous "cry freedom" issue rather than a concrete factor in most peoples' lives.

    Just because it isn't an issue for me, it doesn't mean it isn't an issue for those it affects. Honestly it's sneering attitudes like this that make people think the Remain camp is full of a bunch of numpties sometimes. Over half of employment growth in this country came from migrant labour last year. The unemployment stats only tell half the story, without being able to see the inactivity rate and the absolute employment figures for the area or region the one stat alone is worthless.

    Your idea that sovereignty and immigration are imaginary problems is doing you no favours.
    yeah whatever. I am supposed to be sneering and yet you are being offended or worried or greatly exercised by a bunch of people whose views you don't share, yet whose supposed plight you have taken upon yourself to address.

    Patronising, much?
    Where have I taken up their cause? I've said countless times I'm not in favour of reducing immigration. I can understand why some people are, it doesn't worry me at all. If you can't make that distinction then why are we bothering to go round in circles.
    I am. I think current levels are unsustainable and do not command public support.

    I would support high-skilled immigration of between 100-175k per year, depending upon where we're at in our economic cycle.
    And bonded - so they pre-pay for public services for a minimum period of time.
  • Options
    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    justin124 said:

    Here is England's 26-man provisional squad for the European Championships.

    Goalkeepers: Joe Hart, Fraser Forster, Tom Heaton.

    Defenders: Nathaniel Clyne, Kyle Walker, Gary Cahill, Chris Smalling, John Stones, Ryan Bertrand, Danny Rose.

    Midfielders: Dele Alli, Ross Barkley, Fabian Delph, Eric Dier, Danny Drinkwater, Jordan Henderson, Adam Lallana, James Milner, Raheem Sterling, Andros Townsend, Jack Wilshere.

    Strikers: Harry Kane, Marcus Rashford, Wayne Rooney, Daniel Sturridge, Jamie Vardy.


    This is to be reduced to a final 23 to go. Which three should be excluded?

    I suggest we don't need three goalkeepers and Henderson and Wilshere are not match fit.

    Delph, Rashford, and Drinkwater.

    Those aren't my choices, but what I expect Roy to do.
    I think Roy made it pretty clear in the press conference that Rashford was highly unlikely to go.
    As someone who cannot abide football I hope to see an early exit for ALL the so -called home nations.
    Well aren't you a happy chappy....
    I certainly will be if we have a few early exits bringing an end to the hysteria and associated flag waving.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,896
    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    Here is England's 26-man provisional squad for the European Championships.

    Goalkeepers: Joe Hart, Fraser Forster, Tom Heaton.

    Defenders: Nathaniel Clyne, Kyle Walker, Gary Cahill, Chris Smalling, John Stones, Ryan Bertrand, Danny Rose.

    Midfielders: Dele Alli, Ross Barkley, Fabian Delph, Eric Dier, Danny Drinkwater, Jordan Henderson, Adam Lallana, James Milner, Raheem Sterling, Andros Townsend, Jack Wilshere.

    Strikers: Harry Kane, Marcus Rashford, Wayne Rooney, Daniel Sturridge, Jamie Vardy.


    This is to be reduced to a final 23 to go. Which three should be excluded?

    I suggest we don't need three goalkeepers and Henderson and Wilshere are not match fit.

    Delph, Rashford, and Drinkwater.

    Those aren't my choices, but what I expect Roy to do.
    I think Roy made it pretty clear in the press conference that Rashford was highly unlikely to go.
    As someone who cannot abide football I hope to see an early exit for ALL the so -called home nations.
    Well aren't you a happy chappy....
    I certainly will be if we have a few early exits bringing an end to the hysteria and associated flag waving.
    You are Emily Thornberry and I claim my £5....
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,070
    eek said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    It is far from clear that that EU immigration has driven down wages or increased the burden on public services:

    http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit05.pdf

    Tell that to the plumber who gets told that his new day rate is decreasing to £120 because the new guy from Poland is going to do it for that price. I'm sure he'll read that study with great interest.

    Honestly, it's like the Remain side are sitting atop an ivory tower sneering down at anyone who dares bring up some of the negatives of immigration, and I'm not even that bothered by it.
    LOL we are feeling sorry for plumbers, now!??

    Do you have any idea how much plumbers charge these days?
    Nope but its the wage deflation and lack of pay rises that mean that there are an awful large people who view immigration as the cause for the destruction of their old standard of living.

    Yes, this is undoubtedly true. But whether the perception reflects the reality is something else entirely. Not that this matters. Perception is everything. And there is no doubt that the government's past rhetoric on this front is now catching up with it.

  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,358
    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    Here is England's 26-man provisional squad for the European Championships.

    Goalkeepers: Joe Hart, Fraser Forster, Tom Heaton.

    Defenders: Nathaniel Clyne, Kyle Walker, Gary Cahill, Chris Smalling, John Stones, Ryan Bertrand, Danny Rose.

    Midfielders: Dele Alli, Ross Barkley, Fabian Delph, Eric Dier, Danny Drinkwater, Jordan Henderson, Adam Lallana, James Milner, Raheem Sterling, Andros Townsend, Jack Wilshere.

    Strikers: Harry Kane, Marcus Rashford, Wayne Rooney, Daniel Sturridge, Jamie Vardy.


    This is to be reduced to a final 23 to go. Which three should be excluded?

    I suggest we don't need three goalkeepers and Henderson and Wilshere are not match fit.

    Delph, Rashford, and Drinkwater.

    Those aren't my choices, but what I expect Roy to do.
    I think Roy made it pretty clear in the press conference that Rashford was highly unlikely to go.
    As someone who cannot abide football I hope to see an early exit for ALL the so -called home nations.
    Well aren't you a happy chappy....
    I certainly will be if we have a few early exits bringing an end to the hysteria and associated flag waving.
    A bad refereeing decision by a French or German ref would be greatly received.
  • Options
    volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    I concur with the betting markets and the long-term trends of moves to the status quo,especially at the last minute,more than Mortimers's.Remain will win.However,that does not make his bet null and void as the Con PLP is split 50-50 on the euref and could be in volatile mood.Cameron may find out he has made a few new enemies.On the other hand,I do not find the most probable next step,the coronation of Boris Johnson,an attractive proposition,which still makes it the double figure price it is.Not for me.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    MaxPB said:

    JohnO said:

    If we leave, Dave won't be coming back with anything. He, like the UK, will be out only much sooner.

    And who replaces him? Boris - unlikely, George - gone the moment Dave is, Theresa - Remainer, Hammond - Remainer, Gove - disliked by the public. No one knows the 2010 or 2015 intake well enough to get a real sense whether they could handle the top job.
    May
  • Options
    runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536

    MaxPB said:

    It is far from clear that that EU immigration has driven down wages or increased the burden on public services:

    http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit05.pdf

    Tell that to the plumber who gets told that his new day rate is decreasing to £120 because the new guy from Poland is going to do it for that price. I'm sure he'll read that study with great interest.

    Honestly, it's like the Remain side are sitting atop an ivory tower sneering down at anyone who dares bring up some of the negatives of immigration, and I'm not even that bothered by it.

    Pointing out research that does not fit your narrative is not sneering. Sorry.

    The government's own research notes that

    'EU citizens from Eastern Europe are over-represented in low-skilled sectors in the UK – in-work benefits can act as a subsidy for them to take and stay in these jobs, damaging UK social policy objectives.

    It says 60 per cent of Eastern European graduates in the country work in lower-skilled occupations, compared with 20 per cent of those from Britain.

    It adds that more than £3.1billion of the annual £27.2billion in-work benefits bill goes to EEA nationals. They represent around 6 per cent of the working-age population, but receive more than 10 per cent of the in-work benefit spend.'

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3554769/Leaked-jobs-report-reveals-civil-servants-concern-EU-influx.html

    Bank of England research suggests

    'in the semi/unskilled services sector....a 10 percentage point rise in the proportion of immigrants is associated with a 2 percent reduction in pay'


    http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/research/Documents/workingpapers/2015/swp574.pdf
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,686

    MaxPB said:

    It is far from clear that that EU immigration has driven down wages or increased the burden on public services:

    http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit05.pdf

    Tell that to the plumber who gets told that his new day rate is decreasing to £120 because the new guy from Poland is going to do it for that price. I'm sure he'll read that study with great interest.

    Honestly, it's like the Remain side are sitting atop an ivory tower sneering down at anyone who dares bring up some of the negatives of immigration, and I'm not even that bothered by it.

    Pointing out research that does not fit your narrative is not sneering. Sorry.

    Research written by some academic type who probably has as much contact with working class people as our leaders.

    I'm not in favour of reducing immigration to the "tens of thousands" and neither am I that bothered by immigration as it is today, we could probably stand to reduce it to reduce the pressure on housing but that's probably a reduction to about 170k per year around 100k lower than the current rate but still massively higher than the PM's target. However, to say that immigration is something without any downsides is completely and utterly incorrect. It has no appreciable downsides for you or I, which is why we are broadly in favour of it, but there are people it affects negatively because it increases competition for jobs and lowers wages, it also increases competition for housing which increases prices, it also increases the population which leads to an increase in competition for school places for kids etc...

    Again, being dismissive of such issues is why there is even a vote, the main parties, left/right or Lab/Con have been in favour of these policies of high immigration which has led to this referendum as the PM needed a way to release the pressure of UKIP eating into the Tory vote in key marginals. Remain are making the same basic error by being dismissive of concerns over immigration, as you have recognised yourself, it is why Leave have a decent chance of victory.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,043
    dr_spyn said:

    I see that Osborne, Cable & Balls use one of Mr Boeing's most excellent aircraft as a backdrop. Perhaps they could ask Mr O'Leary what first attracted Ryanair from Airbus?

    Ryanair (following the SouthWest model) have been an all Boeing 737 fleet from virtually the beginning.

    It was Stelios @ EasyJet who broke the 'Lo Cost Model' by ordering Airbus instead of Boeing
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    This isn't sustainable or good for the kids. £3.2 billion a year extra after surge in EU children attending British schools - more than doubled in less than a decade, from 309k in 2007 to 699k in 2015.

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/educating-european-students-costs-3bn-wfg8k95kr
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Great post Mortimer, thanks.

    I would be interested in knowing how people define sovereignty and how also it affects them personally.

    So while I agree with you on the power of the concept of reclaiming sovereignty, I wonder how concrete a motivating force that will be when, on the way to the polling booths, people ponder what it actually means.

    Immigration I grant you is a clearer proposition, although again, by no means a concrete factor in most peoples' lives.

    It's a very concrete (and economic) factor in many people's lives, particularly in social groups C2/D - what Remain have on their side is that they simply don't vote.

    I'm increasingly wondering if Remain are running an AB campaign designer to appeal to ABs. Triple egg and chips has clearly has had some effect in this category.

    I'm not sure it's going to be decisive with C1/C2s and pensioners.
    How many is many? Are British plumbers suffering? British baristas? British hop-pickers? British builders?

    There is no doubt that the influx of EU workers has suppressed wages, but no more or less so than cheaper far east imports and we don't want to ban those, do we? In fact ISTR that most on here see the Far East, for example, as exactly the area with whom they want to increase trade.

    It's all a bit 19th century tbh.
    Well a mate of mine is an electrician, he says most of his contractor friends are for out. They know it will increase their wages if we restrict EU immigration.

    I think the point is that we are becoming a services economy much faster than anyone could have predicted, so those who provide the services are worried that their wages are flatlining due to labour importation. The production jobs have, sadly, disappeared already so importing more tat from China for less money than it can be imported from Germany probably makes some kind of sense.
    Of course, this works both ways. I guess this means I'm going to be paying more for electricians services in the future.
    Why do you think I'm doing a 15 year refurb of my house before the vote?
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,723
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    It is far from clear that that EU immigration has driven down wages or increased the burden on public services:

    http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit05.pdf

    Tell that to the plumber who gets told that his new day rate is decreasing to £120 because the new guy from Poland is going to do it for that price. I'm sure he'll read that study with great interest.

    Honestly, it's like the Remain side are sitting atop an ivory tower sneering down at anyone who dares bring up some of the negatives of immigration, and I'm not even that bothered by it.

    Pointing out research that does not fit your narrative is not sneering. Sorry.

    Research written by some academic type who probably has as much contact with working class people as our leaders.

    I'm not in favour of reducing immigration to the "tens of thousands" and neither am I that bothered by immigration as it is today, we could probably stand to reduce it to reduce the pressure on housing but that's probably a reduction to about 170k per year around 100k lower than the current rate but still massively higher than the PM's target. However, to say that immigration is something without any downsides is completely and utterly incorrect. It has no appreciable downsides for you or I, which is why we are broadly in favour of it, but there are people it affects negatively because it increases competition for jobs and lowers wages, it also increases competition for housing which increases prices, it also increases the population which leads to an increase in competition for school places for kids etc...

    Again, being dismissive of such issues is why there is even a vote, the main parties, left/right or Lab/Con have been in favour of these policies of high immigration which has led to this referendum as the PM needed a way to release the pressure of UKIP eating into the Tory vote in key marginals. Remain are making the same basic error by being dismissive of concerns over immigration, as you have recognised yourself, it is why Leave have a decent chance of victory.
    There is no doubt that if people don't like the levels of EU immigration they should vote Leave. Dave (as I pointed out in a post, to @Richard_Nabavi of all people), had a shocker with his no ifs and buts speech. It was either disingenuous or idiotic and actually ended up being both.

    My subsidiary point was I don't think, that said, that immigration is an overwhelming concern to a majority of people in practice (although in theory if it is, it will be enough for them to tick the Leave box).
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,870
    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Great post Mortimer, thanks.

    I would be interested in knowing how people define sovereignty and how also it affects them personally.

    So while I agree with you on the power of the concept of reclaiming sovereignty, I wonder how concrete a motivating force that will be when, on the way to the polling booths, people ponder what it actually means.

    Immigration I grant you is a clearer proposition, although again, by no means a concrete factor in most peoples' lives.

    It's a very concrete (and economic) factor in many people's lives, particularly in social groups C2/D - what Remain have on their side is that they simply don't vote.

    I'm increasingly wondering if Remain are running an AB campaign designer to appeal to ABs. Triple egg and chips has clearly has had some effect in this category.

    I'm not sure it's going to be decisive with C1/C2s and pensioners.
    How many is many? Are British plumbers suffering? British baristas? British hop-pickers? British builders?

    There is no doubt that the influx of EU workers has suppressed wages, but no more or less so than cheaper far east imports and we don't want to ban those, do we? In fact ISTR that most on here see the Far East, for example, as exactly the area with whom they want to increase trade.

    It's all a bit 19th century tbh.
    Well a mate of mine is an electrician, he says most of his contractor friends are for out. They know it will increase their wages if we restrict EU immigration.

    I think the point is that we are becoming a services economy much faster than anyone could have predicted, so those who provide the services are worried that their wages are flatlining due to labour importation. The production jobs have, sadly, disappeared already so importing more tat from China for less money than it can be imported from Germany probably makes some kind of sense.
    Of course, this works both ways. I guess this means I'm going to be paying more for electricians services in the future.
    Why do you think I'm doing a 15 year refurb of my house before the vote?
    Very prescient of you to know to start it exactly 15 years ago.
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,070
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    It is far from clear that that EU immigration has driven down wages or increased the burden on public services:

    http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit05.pdf

    Tell that to the plumber who gets told that his new day rate is decreasing to £120 because the new guy from Poland is going to do it for that price. I'm sure he'll read that study with great interest.

    Honestly, it's like the Remain side are sitting atop an ivory tower sneering down at anyone who dares bring up some of the negatives of immigration, and I'm not even that bothered by it.

    Pointing out research that does not fit your narrative is not sneering. Sorry.

    Research written by some academic type who probably has as much contact with working class people as our leaders.

    I'm not in favour of reducing immigration to the "tens of thousands" and neither am I that bothered by immigration as it is today, we could probably stand to reduce it to reduce the pressure on housing but that's probably a reduction to about 170k per year around 100k lower than the current rate but still massively higher than the PM's target. However, to say that immigration is something without any downsides is completely and utterly incorrect. It has no appreciable downsides for you or I, which is why we are broadly in favour of it, but there are people it affects negatively because it increases competition for jobs and lowers wages, it also increases competition for housing which increases prices, it also increases the population which leads to an increase in competition for school places for kids etc...

    Again, being dismissive of such issues is why there is even a vote, the main parties, left/right or Lab/Con have been in favour of these policies of high immigration which has led to this referendum as the PM needed a way to release the pressure of UKIP eating into the Tory vote in key marginals. Remain are making the same basic error by being dismissive of concerns over immigration, as you have recognised yourself, it is why Leave have a decent chance of victory.

    Who on earth is dismissing people's concerns?

    If immigration increases competition for jobs why is that that most areas of high unemployment are areas of low immigration. Isn't it also the case that immigration increases demand and so may actually create jobs? There is clearly a perception that immigration from the EU is driving wages down and putting pressure on public services. But that does not mean the perception is correct. Don't you think that these things are worth looking into? Who would you like to do research if you believe it is too elitist for academics to do it?



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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    It is far from clear that that EU immigration has driven down wages or increased the burden on public services:

    http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit05.pdf

    Tell that to the plumber who gets told that his new day rate is decreasing to £120 because the new guy from Poland is going to do it for that price. I'm sure he'll read that study with great interest.

    Honestly, it's like the Remain side are sitting atop an ivory tower sneering down at anyone who dares bring up some of the negatives of immigration, and I'm not even that bothered by it.

    Pointing out research that does not fit your narrative is not sneering. Sorry.

    Research written by some academic type who probably has as much contact with working class people as our leaders.

    I'm not in favour of reducing immigration to the "tens of thousands" and neither am I that bothered by immigration as it is today, we could probably stand to reduce it to reduce the pressure on housing but that's probably a reduction to about 170k per year around 100k lower than the current rate but still massively higher than the PM's target. However, to say that immigration is something without any downsides is completely and utterly incorrect. It has no appreciable downsides for you or I, which is why we are broadly in favour of it, but there are people it affects negatively because it increases competition for jobs and lowers wages, it also increases competition for housing which increases prices, it also increases the population which leads to an increase in competition for school places for kids etc...

    Again, being dismissive of such issues is why there is even a vote, the main parties, left/right or Lab/Con have been in favour of these policies of high immigration which has led to this referendum as the PM needed a way to release the pressure of UKIP eating into the Tory vote in key marginals. Remain are making the same basic error by being dismissive of concerns over immigration, as you have recognised yourself, it is why Leave have a decent chance of victory.
    Well said.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    On topic: I agree with Nick P that the timings don't work, even if you accept Mortimer's political logic.

    What's more, I don't really see the political logic. In whose interest in the Conservative Party would an early GE be? Certainly not the Leavers - who in this scenario would be running the party - because there would be a substantial risk that the Conservatives might lose their majority and that therefore pro-EU MPs would have the majority.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    It is far from clear that that EU immigration has driven down wages or increased the burden on public services:

    http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit05.pdf

    By definition an increase in population increases the burden on public services, unless the immigrants are fully funding the capacity expansion. I believe the figures most people quote are current spending/revenue only not including capital investment
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,870

    Fair to say, Mirror readers aren't very keen on Cameron

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/david-cameron-writes-mirror-dont-7978638

    Hahahahaha

    "BeppeSapone
    Congratulations on your valiant efforts, Mr Cameron , grovelling to 27 heads of state to get their permission to allow you to knock 5p off a packet of tampons ( I have the commemorative T shirt)."

    And the captions! The pictures of Cameron with David Milliband, with Merkel and Hollande!

    The Mirror have done this as total clickbait to fire up their readers.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    rcs1000 said:

    justin124 said:

    Here is England's 26-man provisional squad for the European Championships.

    Goalkeepers: Joe Hart, Fraser Forster, Tom Heaton.

    Defenders: Nathaniel Clyne, Kyle Walker, Gary Cahill, Chris Smalling, John Stones, Ryan Bertrand, Danny Rose.

    Midfielders: Dele Alli, Ross Barkley, Fabian Delph, Eric Dier, Danny Drinkwater, Jordan Henderson, Adam Lallana, James Milner, Raheem Sterling, Andros Townsend, Jack Wilshere.

    Strikers: Harry Kane, Marcus Rashford, Wayne Rooney, Daniel Sturridge, Jamie Vardy.


    This is to be reduced to a final 23 to go. Which three should be excluded?

    I suggest we don't need three goalkeepers and Henderson and Wilshere are not match fit.

    Delph, Rashford, and Drinkwater.

    Those aren't my choices, but what I expect Roy to do.
    I think Roy made it pretty clear in the press conference that Rashford was highly unlikely to go.
    As someone who cannot abide football I hope to see an early exit for ALL the so -called home nations.
    As the creator of a football scores app, I have no time at all for your views!

    Go Crowdscores, Go!
    How is it going, btw?
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    WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    Anyone know when we are likely to see polls this week?
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    It is far from clear that that EU immigration has driven down wages or increased the burden on public services:

    http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit05.pdf

    Tell that to the plumber who gets told that his new day rate is decreasing to £120 because the new guy from Poland is going to do it for that price. I'm sure he'll read that study with great interest.

    Honestly, it's like the Remain side are sitting atop an ivory tower sneering down at anyone who dares bring up some of the negatives of immigration, and I'm not even that bothered by it.
    LOL we are feeling sorry for plumbers, now!??

    Do you have any idea how much plumbers charge these days?
    I still remember (10 years ago) my plumber complaining he was having to sell his Porsche to afford his daughter's school fees...
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,459
    Sean_F said:

    @Topping

    It is not my business to correct Remain's mistakes. For example, the second link you post from Peterborough is the boss of a large company telling it how it is - by definition, from social group AB.

    On unemployment, it's perfectly possible for official figures to fall whilst wages remain stagnant, and they experience unwanted social change in their local area with no tools to escape or take advantage of it.

    I think for you immigration isn't an issue at all whereas you fear your finances might be affected if we Leave. For others, it is the precise opposite.

    Static real wages for what the Americans call "the middle class" (not our definition) are a feature of almost every Western economy now. High levels of immigration are one cause (though certainly not the only one).
    Real wages are static in Japan, despite close to zero immigration.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Now, who saw that coming...

    @WikiGuido: Just like the Tories, Labour also failed to declare battle buses as local spending during the general election: https://t.co/nQfAWonhFw

    Oh, I did
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    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,371
    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    It is far from clear that that EU immigration has driven down wages or increased the burden on public services:

    http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit05.pdf

    Tell that to the plumber who gets told that his new day rate is decreasing to £120 because the new guy from Poland is going to do it for that price. I'm sure he'll read that study with great interest.

    Honestly, it's like the Remain side are sitting atop an ivory tower sneering down at anyone who dares bring up some of the negatives of immigration, and I'm not even that bothered by it.
    LOL we are feeling sorry for plumbers, now!??

    Do you have any idea how much plumbers charge these days?
    Well quite. The Great British plumber was a staple of 1970s comedy - uncontactable, waiting times of several months, spectacularly expensive, did a sh*t job. I don't want a return to any of that, thank you very much. My Polish chap Oleg is prompt with competitive rates, and his standards are impeccable. I'd never let some British cowboy near my sink again.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,686

    Who on earth is dismissing people's concerns?

    If immigration increases competition for jobs why is that that most areas of high unemployment are areas of low immigration. Isn't it also the case that immigration increases demand and so may actually create jobs? There is clearly a perception that immigration from the EU is driving wages down and putting pressure on public services. But that does not mean the perception is correct. Don't you think that these things are worth looking into? Who would you like to do research if you believe it is too elitist for academics to do it?

    You only have to look at threads here for the sneering at people who are against high levels of immigration, I've probably done it myself at some point. It is an "unenlightened" view. Look at John Major just two days ago as another example of how Remain wants to shut down any kind of immigration talk.

    On who should study it, it's a difficult one, the ivory tower mob have too many preconceptions and not enough contact with the working class to really see the effects of immigration.

    Also, creating demand at lower rates is not a virtuous circle, it makes people poorer as less money is fed into the economy than before. Our GDP per capita is only 1% higher than it was pre-crash while the absolute GDP is 8% higher. People can just "feel" it. They are working harder than ever but getting very little extra for it. Taking into account wage growth at the top it is likely that the middle classes and working classes have less share of GDP than in 2008 so are still poorer than they were before the crash, working harder for a lower standard of living. It is why the government are raising the wages of the low paid by decree.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,108
    edited May 2016
    Wanderer said:

    Anyone know when we are likely to see polls this week?

    ICM online poll early on this week (EURef only)

    Ipsos Mori phone poll - Wed-Fri (Westminster VI and EU Ref)

    ComRes phone poll sometime this week (EURef for sure, possibly Westminster VI too)

    Possibly ICM phone poll earlier on this week (Definitely Westminster VI and maybe EURef polling)

    We might see a YouGov poll this week, and hopefully a Opinium poll this weekend. (Westminster VI and EURef polling with both)
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    [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
    edited May 2016


    I still remember (10 years ago) my plumber complaining he was having to sell his Porsche to afford his daughter's school fees...
    A hedge fund manager was outraged by the price of getting his leaking kitchen taps replaced, grumbling 'I don't earn that bloody much'. 'Nor did I when I was a hedge fund manager' quipped the plumber.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited May 2016
    Patrick said:

    A hedge fund manager was outraged by the price of getting his leaking kitchen taps replaced, grumbling 'I don't earn that bloody much'. 'Nor did I when I was a hedge fund manager' quipped the plumber.

    That's good!
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    edited May 2016

    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Great post Mortimer, thanks.

    I would be interested in knowing how people define sovereignty and how also it affects them personally.

    So while I agree with you on the power of the concept of reclaiming sovereignty, I wonder how concrete a motivating force that will be when, on the way to the polling booths, people ponder what it actually means.

    Immigration I grant you is a clearer proposition, although again, by no means a concrete factor in most peoples' lives.

    It's a very concrete (and economic) factor in many people's lives, particularly in social groups C2/D - what Remain have on their side is that they simply don't vote.

    I'm increasingly wondering if Remain are running an AB campaign designer to appeal to ABs. Triple egg and chips has clearly has had some effect in this category.

    I'm not sure it's going to be decisive with C1/C2s and pensioners.
    How many is many? Are British plumbers suffering? British baristas? British hop-pickers? British builders?

    There is no doubt that the influx of EU workers has suppressed wages, but no more or less so than cheaper far east imports and we don't want to ban those, do we? In fact ISTR that most on here see the Far East, for example, as exactly the area with whom they want to increase trade.

    It's all a bit 19th century tbh.
    Well a mate of mine is an electrician, he says most of his contractor friends are for out. They know it will increase their wages if we restrict EU immigration.

    I think the point is that we are becoming a services economy much faster than anyone could have predicted, so those who provide the services are worried that their wages are flatlining due to labour importation. The production jobs have, sadly, disappeared already so importing more tat from China for less money than it can be imported from Germany probably makes some kind of sense.
    Of course, this works both ways. I guess this means I'm going to be paying more for electricians services in the future.
    Why do you think I'm doing a 15 year refurb of my house before the vote?
    Very prescient of you to know to start it exactly 15 years ago.
    I'm a lizard Pilgrim.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,896
    edited May 2016
    Scott_P said:

    Now, who saw that coming...

    @WikiGuido: Just like the Tories, Labour also failed to declare battle buses as local spending during the general election: https://t.co/nQfAWonhFw

    Oh, I did

    This is going to be a major problem for other parties as well… Guido has been compiling a dossier, more examples to come…
    Funny how Michael Crick didn't spot this? Bit like the old phone hacking blind spot to Mirror Group, who made News International look like amateurs tiddling at it.
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