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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Mortimer with a tip for the more adventurous gamblers
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Mortimer with a tip for the more adventurous gamblers
A few days ago during the inevitable Political Betting dissection of the too-ings and fro-ings of another day in the EU referendum campaign the fact that this race really might be a close one began to sink in.
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Well done, Mortimer.
Corbyn also hates his country but at least he's honest about it. Corbyn would be preferable to the Posh Boys.
And there has to be a price to pay for what Cameron and Osborne have done these past weeks. There has to be an evisceration before we can move on to become full members of the United States Of Europe as Cameron and Osborne want.
The economic argument seems to have morphed into an immigration argument with all Remain's immigration projections in their economic forecasts.
See SouthamObserver's posts ad nauseam.
Interesting poll from the SE. Major swing to leave in SE. Is this going to be mirrored elsewhere.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36299555
I don't believe this many are undecided, I think a significant proportion are "won't say". How the won't say's break down is anybodies guess.
How we conducted our poll
Reporters from our network of offices headed out on to the streets to speak to people in most of the main towns in Norfolk and Suffolk and also Wisbech in Cambridgeshire and Colchester and Clacton in Essex. We recorded voting intentions for 1,090 people during the course of last week, mainly at lunchtime....
...The geography of last week’s survey was broadly similar to the one of 1,280 we conducted in February. Last time a small group of 20 under 18s was included. That was not the case this time. We also recorded people who would not vote separately to “don’t knows”.
Very good article by Mortimer, and even as a Europhile I think it makes an interesting change to have an intelligent Leaver writing the lead column. 2016 seems too tight to me, though. Say Cameron quits on June 24. We're probably looking at a new leader launched at the October conference - or would we again see the conference as a launchpad for the final two to put their cased? Either way, the new leader isn't going to have put upo the Downing Street curtains till nearly November. Does (s)he then instantly organise a vote of no conifdence in the Government under the Fixed Term Act so as to have an election before Christmas? I don't think it works.
2017, however...
RyanAir!!!
Brexit represents a combination of romanticism and sentimentalism. A yearning for some kind of throwback to how things used to be. It is little wonder that conservatives are attracted to it. But in this era of uncertainty it would not surprise me one jot if sufficient numbers were attracted to it to record a no vote. I am going to start betting accordingly.
If you are bullish about Leave then another longish odds bet to consider is Remain 40.01-45% which is 20/1 on Betfair. For those who think that "Cameron is panicking" and so on, surely a 56-44 Leave win is more likely than those odds imply.
The headlines to that poll are trying to make out there is a big swing to out.
@wallaceme: Osborne bringing out defeated enemies Cable and Balls to speak has a slight air of Caesar parading Vercingetorix through the streets.
That said, Cameron's position may be instantly untenable if Leave wins, in which case the Tories are going to have to replace him asap. The circumstances won't lend themselves to a caretaker.
It'd be tight to get one for 2016, though. It is a credible possibility, however.
Mr. Tyson, Birmingham is southern.
With photo of Vince Cable, George Osborne & Ed Balls standing in front of a RyanAir jet in a hanger @ Stansted
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2016/05/spain-post-race-analysis-2016.html
I think those tears were genuine. He does love the UK.
However, he suffers from a deeply small-c conservative establishment mindset about the UK, its foreign policy and the status quo re: the EU. He has done very well out of it and can't, for the life of him, think (or even begin to contemplate) why it would or should be any different.
I rather suspect that the fallout will be such that they will.spend two years on party management and before you know it the 5 years will be up.
I agree 16/1 is value. For instance, another scenario; if Leave do win and HMG tries to pass an EEA/EFTA deal through the Commons, but it fails due to not addressing the migration question, and it's made a vote of confidence, which also fails, I'd struggle to see how we'd avoid a general election.
Peston
.@vincecable just accused @BorisJohnson & @Nigel_Farage of "small condom" EU alarmism
.@edballs warns that leaving EU would see 17% increase in price of Adidas trainers
Unless you believe the REMAIN camp's claim that moving to WTO rules means we have to slap huge tariffs on things. Which is, of course, a lie.
I would be interested in knowing how people define sovereignty and how also it affects them personally.
So while I agree with you on the power of the concept of reclaiming sovereignty, I wonder how concrete a motivating force that will be when, on the way to the polling booths, people ponder what it actually means.
Immigration I grant you is a clearer proposition, although again, by no means a concrete factor in most peoples' lives.
All they can do is make sure the word never passes their lips until June is out...
I'm basically just repeating what is in our report, but the gist is that the Tories and UKIP will fight the election as the party of out while Labour/SNP/Lib Dems will fight as the party to overturn the referendum result, the Tories will win the election on the basis that we will get a second vote on how to proceed wrt to our relationship with the EU. EEA vs WTO will be the options, enough people will swing from the Leave camp to the EEA camp and that will be where it ends.
To avoid an election Cameron would have to come back with at least two of this list:
Mandatory 180 day waiting times for EU citizens to claim benefits or tax credits in the UK
Free movement of labour, not citizens - people must have a confirmed job lasting longer than 90 days before they can apply for working status in the UK
Mandatory health insurance, either purchased from a private provider or from the NHS before being granted an NI number
Emergency break on EU immigration
80-100k annual migrant quota
I don't see the EU giving up more than one of anything on that list.
the warimmigration. I mentioned it once, but I think I got away with it.""Tens of thousands, Prime Minister?"
"Bugger...."
But what it also means is that should leave win and G&D depart, the leavers who replace them are going to have some very, very tough and unpopular choices to make if they are going to deliver on immigration. All Leave ministers are signed up for current policies too, of course, as is Boris. The Tories are in a huge mess on this.
Should have gone with Andy Carroll, best option for a sub 5 minutes from time with a goal needed when we're hoofing it/set pieces.
As usual though I am going to have bet against England I'm afraid to offset my disappointments.
I'm increasingly wondering if Remain are running an AB campaign designer to appeal to ABs. Triple egg and chips has clearly has had some effect in this category.
I'm not sure it's going to be decisive with C1/C2s and pensioners.
Rooney though obviously not the top front man is still worthwhile taking for his experience and ability to play a forward midfield role. Kane/Vardy must have selected themselves as the choice top 2 though.
Though I'm in favour of a wholly contributory benefits system, I don't think the UK public are. The point is that EU citizens aren't British citizens, making that distinction is something that the EU would have to recognise in any EEA style trade deal with the UK for the PM to avoid losing a vote of confidence, it's not something he will get though, AIUI the EU would rather poke out is own eyes than make the distinction between EU and national citizenship as it would pave the way for other nations to seek similar deals.
Is this the same Boris that supported an amnesty for illegal immigrants and who failed utterly to look after the interests of low-paid Londoners while he was mayor?
There is no doubt that the influx of EU workers has suppressed wages, but no more or less so than cheaper far east imports and we don't want to ban those, do we? In fact ISTR that most on here see the Far East, for example, as exactly the area with whom they want to increase trade.
It's all a bit 19th century tbh.
In many parts of the country, people see a real impact of migration on the shape of their communities, public services and as a brake on wages.
I think the point is that we are becoming a services economy much faster than anyone could have predicted, so those who provide the services are worried that their wages are flatlining due to labour importation. The production jobs have, sadly, disappeared already so importing more tat from China for less money than it can be imported from Germany probably makes some kind of sense.
I've lost count of the number of times you've posted this.
Goalkeepers: Joe Hart, Fraser Forster, Tom Heaton.
Defenders: Nathaniel Clyne, Kyle Walker, Gary Cahill, Chris Smalling, John Stones, Ryan Bertrand, Danny Rose.
Midfielders: Dele Alli, Ross Barkley, Fabian Delph, Eric Dier, Danny Drinkwater, Jordan Henderson, Adam Lallana, James Milner, Raheem Sterling, Andros Townsend, Jack Wilshere.
Strikers: Harry Kane, Marcus Rashford, Wayne Rooney, Daniel Sturridge, Jamie Vardy.
This is to be reduced to a final 23 to go. Which three should be excluded?
I suggest we don't need three goalkeepers and Henderson and Wilshere are not match fit.
Ken Livingstone today slapped down Boris Johnson’s claim that the European Union was similar to Hitler’s plans to dominate the Continent.
The former Labour mayor, who is himself facing a disciplinary process for making controversial remarks about the Nazi dictator, said the Tory had got his facts wrong.
“What I said was perfectly true,” claimed Mr Livingstone. “But Boris is a lot better informed about Ancient Greece and Rome than about modern history.
“There was never a plan for a United States of Europe under Hitler. What he wanted was actually a Greater Germany that absorbed neighbouring states, with Britain and France rendered subservient.” Mr Livingstone caused an anti-Semitism row by claiming that Hitler had a pact with Zionists in the Thirties.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/ken-livingstone-dragged-into-boris-johnson-hitler-storm-a3248971.html