That whole article seems to be based on the premise that UKIP support and Leave support is interchangeable (UKIP support being overstated thus means Leave support will be overstated too). That seems a bit silly to me, since all the polls have shown Leave making deep inroads into the Tory vote, and some decent inroads into the Labour vote and to some extent even the SNP and Lib Dem vote.
I have a small bet on Priti Patel, from when Mr. Manson tipped her at 50/1 some years ago.
I completely forgot about the £10 I put on Patel at 40/1 or possibly 50/1 with Coral. They wouldn't let me place anything higher than that which was slightly annoying as I found £30 in my account from a previous bet which had come in.
@Danny565 I don't think that's what the article is saying. It's saying that social conservatives are overrepresented and since that's a group that is much more likely than average to be for Leave, that is leading to Leave being overstated.
Personally I thought polling did pretty well by and large in this round of elections. It suggests that the pollsters have done some good work in the last year. UKIP do look to have been a bit overstated though.
That whole article seems to be based on the premise that UKIP support and Leave support is interchangeable (UKIP support being overstated thus means Leave support will be overstated too). That seems a bit silly to me, since all the polls have shown Leave making deep inroads into the Tory vote, and some decent inroads into the Labour vote and to some extent even the SNP and Lib Dem vote.
the 2014 Europeans also showed kipper support is a bit horses for course for me. Who wants a kipper council, really? But the referendum?? I reckon Nige will be able to summon the full rohirrim for that one.
As the establishment Orc army besieges the white city of Britain, A loud blast on a faraway hill..
That whole article seems to be based on the premise that UKIP support and Leave support is interchangeable (UKIP support being overstated thus means Leave support will be overstated too). That seems a bit silly to me, since all the polls have shown Leave making deep inroads into the Tory vote, and some decent inroads into the Labour vote and to some extent even the SNP and Lib Dem vote.
the 2014 Europeans also showed kipper support is a bit horses for course for me. Who wants a kipper council, really? But the referendum?? I reckon Nige will be able to summon the full rohirrim for that one.
As the establishment Orc army besieges the white city of Britain, A loud blast on a faraway hill..
That whole article seems to be based on the premise that UKIP support and Leave support is interchangeable (UKIP support being overstated thus means Leave support will be overstated too). That seems a bit silly to me, since all the polls have shown Leave making deep inroads into the Tory vote, and some decent inroads into the Labour vote and to some extent even the SNP and Lib Dem vote.
While that's true, UKIP supporters are pretty solid for Leave so it seems reasonable to think that a methodology that overstated them would also overstate Leave to some extent.
Finally on a different area of interest, why is the EU deemed to be bad by Leave but NATO good?
Ignoring all your other fatuous idiocy. NATO does not impose new laws and new regulations upon us. It doesn't prevent us securing our own trade deals, controlling our own borders, setting our own VAT levels or running our own farming and fishing to suit ourselves. Nor does it require in excess of £15 billion a year to be a member.
Sorry, I think it is you who does not live in the real world. Who owns all the farms and fishing boats? In a liberalised free trading economy it could be anyone from anywhere on the planet and it is the market that dictates who buys the produce! In terms of trade deals, why are you so arrogant to think that Britain with a market of 65 Million can strike anything better than a combined area of 500 million?
In terms of controlling borders if you really believe that the UK will ever get immigration controlled or even reverse it, then you are deluded. Afraid immigration post 1997 is something you will have to put up with and that great Brexit campaigner Boris Johnson thinks it should be a free for all in any case. The actual cost of the EU, you say is £15 Billion. How much of that does the UK get back in development grants and the like? It is the Net figure you should be interested in and then the difference between any trade deal post Brexit in comparison to the status quo.
Ah the usual Eurofanatic garbage.
The net amount we pay is between £8.5 billion and £10 billion a year. And no we should not be using the net figure. We should be using the gross figure. The money we get back (our own taxpayers money) is controlled by the EU. They decide where it is spent, what conditions are placed on it and in many cases demand that the UK taxpayer then provides matched funding as a pre-condition of getting the money at all.
A great example of this idiocy from a couple of days ago:
That whole article seems to be based on the premise that UKIP support and Leave support is interchangeable (UKIP support being overstated thus means Leave support will be overstated too). That seems a bit silly to me, since all the polls have shown Leave making deep inroads into the Tory vote, and some decent inroads into the Labour vote and to some extent even the SNP and Lib Dem vote.
the 2014 Europeans also showed kipper support is a bit horses for course for me. Who wants a kipper council, really? But the referendum?? I reckon Nige will be able to summon the full rohirrim for that one.
As the establishment Orc army besieges the white city of Britain, A loud blast on a faraway hill..
@Danny565 I don't think that's what the article is saying. It's saying that social conservatives are overrepresented and since that's a group that is much more likely than average to be for Leave, that is leading to Leave being overstated.
Personally I thought polling did pretty well by and large in this round of elections. It suggests that the pollsters have done some good work in the last year. UKIP do look to have been a bit overstated though.
Yes, the polls did pretty well last week.
Which means we should take them quite seriously on the referendum. (Obviously there's the phone/online divide to consider.)
An update on the current state of the US presidential race.
Last night after the Miami-Dade poll I said it was pointing to Trump being only just behind Hillary in Florida, and the Gallup favourables rating which also said that the GOP is quickly coalescing around Trump.
2 days ago I said that the state polling picture points to Trump getting a majority in the Electoral College (and thus elected President) even if he is behind Hillary by 4-5 points nationally.
Today we have the confirmation of my suspicions.
...
I think we will know how things are going in about 6 weeks, but the first picture emerging suggests that the Trump-Hillary race may have returned to the state prior to the GOP meltdown in March.
You might be right about the latter observation, but historically it's usually been fool's gold to find paths to the White House that actually happen without having most votes as well. It's possible, but I believe it's only happened very rarely - candidates do unexpectedly well in state X, but stumble into losing supposedly secure state Y.
What I see in the state polls is that Trump is weaker than usual in safe republican states but it's business as usual in swing states.
Winning Utah, Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Idaho by a single point still gives him the E.C. votes, even if his weakness in safe republican states costs him the popular vote nationally. His weakness in safe R. states depresses his national vote share by a couple of points and masks his strengh in the marginal states that matter. That's why I put the cutoff point at around 4-5 points behind Hillary, if Trump is closer than that then he should win the swing states and the presidency.
Finally on a different area of interest, why is the EU deemed to be bad by Leave but NATO good?
Ignoring all your other fatuous idiocy. NATO does not impose new laws and new regulations upon us. It doesn't prevent us securing our own trade deals, controlling our own borders, setting our own VAT levels or running our own farming and fishing to suit ourselves. Nor does it require in excess of £15 billion a year to be a member.
Sorry, I think it is you who does not live in the real world. Who owns all the farms and fishing boats? In a liberalised free trading economy it could be anyone from anywhere on the planet and it is the market that dictates who buys the produce! In terms of trade deals, why are you so arrogant to think that Britain with a market of 65 Million can strike anything better than a combined area of 500 million?
In terms of controlling borders if you really believe that the UK will ever get immigration controlled or even reverse it, then you are deluded. Afraid immigration post 1997 is something you will have to put up with and that great Brexit campaigner Boris Johnson thinks it should be a free for all in any case. The actual cost of the EU, you say is £15 Billion. How much of that does the UK get back in development grants and the like? It is the Net figure you should be interested in and then the difference between any trade deal post Brexit in comparison to the status quo.
Ah the usual Eurofanatic garbage.
The net amount we pay is between £8.5 billion and £10 billion a year. And no we should not be using the net figure. We should be using the gross figure. The money we get back (our own taxpayers money) is controlled by the EU. They decide where it is spent, what conditions are placed on it and in many cases demand that the UK taxpayer then provides matched funding as a pre-condition of getting the money at all.
A great example of this idiocy from a couple of days ago:
So no, we should not be using the net figure, any more than we deduct the cost of services from our tax bill.
And there is no status quo.
A little while ago Lord Tebbitt unearthed a thunderous quote from Gladstone to the effect that any surrender of power over the public purse is a surrender of sovereignty. Even if some of it comes back to you.
The fact is power of patronage is seeping away from Westminster apace.
Finally on a different area of interest, why is the EU deemed to be bad by Leave but NATO good?
Ignoring all your other fatuous idiocy. NATO does not impose new laws and new regulations upon us. It doesn't prevent us securing our own trade deals, controlling our own borders, setting our own VAT levels or running our own farming and fishing to suit ourselves. Nor does it require in excess of £15 billion a year to be a member.
Sorry, I think it is you who does not live in the real world. Who owns all the farms and fishing boats? In a liberalised free trading economy it could be anyone from anywhere on the planet and it is the market that dictates who buys the produce! In terms of trade deals, why are you so arrogant to think that Britain with a market of 65 Million can strike anything better than a combined area of 500 million?
In terms of controlling borders if you really believe that the UK will ever get immigration controlled or even reverse it, then you are deluded. Afraid immigration post 1997 is something you will have to put up with and that great Brexit campaigner Boris Johnson thinks it should be a free for all in any case. The actual cost of the EU, you say is £15 Billion. How much of that does the UK get back in development grants and the like? It is the Net figure you should be interested in and then the difference between any trade deal post Brexit in comparison to the status quo.
Ah the usual Eurofanatic garbage.
The net amount we pay is between £8.5 billion and £10 billion a year. And no we should not be using the net figure. We should be using the gross figure. The money we get back (our own taxpayers money) is controlled by the EU. They decide where it is spent, what conditions are placed on it and in many cases demand that the UK taxpayer then provides matched funding as a pre-condition of getting the money at all.
A great example of this idiocy from a couple of days ago:
So no, we should not be using the net figure, any more than we deduct the cost of services from our tax bill.
And there is no status quo.
A little while ago Lord Tebbitt unearthed a thunderous quote from Gladstone to the effect that any surrender of power over the public purse is a surrender of sovereignty. Even if some of it comes back to you.
The fact is power of patronage is seeping away from Westminster apace.
A 19th century mantra that Leavers can get behind.
A little while ago Lord Tebbitt unearthed a thunderous quote from Gladstone to the effect that any surrender of power over the public purse is a surrender of sovereignty.
You could extend that to debt. A government has less sovereignty if it has to levy taxes to service the debt built up in the past.
An update on the current state of the US presidential race.
Last night after the Miami-Dade poll I said it was pointing to Trump being only just behind Hillary in Florida, and the Gallup favourables rating which also said that the GOP is quickly coalescing around Trump.
2 days ago I said that the state polling picture points to Trump getting a majority in the Electoral College (and thus elected President) even if he is behind Hillary by 4-5 points nationally.
Today we have the confirmation of my suspicions.
As PPP point out the Democratic race is still 'live', once it finishes Sanders supporters will start coalescing around Hilary. Trump-Clinton undecideds go 41-8 for Sanders in a Sander-Trump match up.
A little while ago Lord Tebbitt unearthed a thunderous quote from Gladstone to the effect that any surrender of power over the public purse is a surrender of sovereignty.
You could extend that to debt. A government has less sovereignty if it has to levy taxes to service the debt built up in the past.
Well you could. It would be much simpler to denounce State spending on welfare as morally vicious. There must be very few people who would accept the one argument who would not accept the other.
Tony Lloyd (Lab PCC) is doing his nut over this, rather than backing the plod. He said this is wrongly stigmatizing Muslims. Because the threat of suicide bombing in the Western World is well known to be equally distributed among different faiths.
If they had been doing a response to an armed robbery I might have to sympathy.
What stigmatizes Muslims is the fact that some Muslims behave like such total arseholes allegedly on behalf of all Muslims and in the name of their religion that they drag others into their vilely warped view of life.
Much as the IRA did for Irishmen in the 1970's.
What will stop the stigma is when the arseholes stop being arseholes. And Tony Lloyd might more usefully use his gob to make this point. Or shut up, if he can't say anything sensible.
What was it that Trevor Phillips said this morning about liberal self-delusion?
Apologies for all the bad language but really......
A little while ago Lord Tebbitt unearthed a thunderous quote from Gladstone to the effect that any surrender of power over the public purse is a surrender of sovereignty.
You could extend that to debt. A government has less sovereignty if it has to levy taxes to service the debt built up in the past.
Well you could. It would be much simpler to denounce State spending on welfare as morally vicious. There must be very few people who would accept the one argument who would not accept the other.
I've said it before, but your cynicism in your posts often make me laugh out loud.
I'd like to place a small bet on Priti Patel for next Tory leader. No reason other than historical parallels. I'd appreciate a recommendation of the best and fairest online bookie with whom to lose small amounts of money every now and again.
She's 20/1 with Ladbrokes which I think is the best price.
An update on the current state of the US presidential race.
Last night after the Miami-Dade poll I said it was pointing to Trump being only just behind Hillary in Florida, and the Gallup favourables rating which also said that the GOP is quickly coalescing around Trump.
2 days ago I said that the state polling picture points to Trump getting a majority in the Electoral College (and thus elected President) even if he is behind Hillary by 4-5 points nationally.
Today we have the confirmation of my suspicions.
As PPP point out the Democratic race is still 'live', once it finishes Sanders supporters will start coalescing around Hilary. Trump-Clinton undecideds go 41-8 for Sanders in a Sander-Trump match up.
It was stjohn who suggested that 1000/1 shot on Cruz a few days ago ...... the ultimate St. Jude bet were it to come off!
That's a great bet, the combined historical and actuarial odds must make it mathematically so !
Rubio OTOH at 130/210 looks to be horrible, he should be longer than Cruz even though we're talking about a tiny tiny tail of probabilities where it isn't Trump.
I have a small bet on Priti Patel, from when Mr. Manson tipped her at 50/1 some years ago.
I completely forgot about the £10 I put on Patel at 40/1 or possibly 50/1 with Coral. They wouldn't let me place anything higher than that which was slightly annoying as I found £30 in my account from a previous bet which had come in.
Trump will win AZ comfortably. McCain knows Arizona politics, and has internal polls, and that he has been forced to endorse Trump says a lot about his struggles with primary challenger Kelli Ward, as well as Trump’s strength in the state. AZ has little to no chance of going Democrat. Putting a lot of faith in one poll, so far out is not wise.
The Georgia poll was somewhat misleading with just a one point lead for Trump. This was essentially only due to the large number of undecided Republican voters, come the election most will vote Trump and Georgia will be a comfortable GOP hold. Interestingly the numbers make it clear that Clinton is not closing the sale with Black voters. She is leading “just” 73/9 (very low for a Democrat), but with 17% of Backs saying they are undecided she could be facing an even bigger problem.
Interesting to Peter Thiel is a potential Trump delegate.
Not all polls are fully integrated into it yet (awaiting HuffPolling to get their act together), but as an "at-a-glance" resource I hope it proves valuable to PBers.
You can make your own Custom forecast by flipping states (from their current forecast).
Not all polls are fully integrated into it yet (awaiting HuffPolling to get their act together), but as an "at-a-glance" resource I hope it proves valuable to PBers.
You can make your own Custom forecast by flipping states (from their current forecast).
Hamilton being parachuted into Wales is unacceptable and to be leader of UKIP beggars belief
He was born in Wales. Bedwellty, Monmouthshire to be precise.
Makes no difference - he is using Wales for his own political ambitions.
Where as politicians are there for charity ? please....
I don't like Hamilton much, but he was elected fairly, he has a democratic mandate, crying about it is just so much sour grapes.
Not sour grapes. I would be content for a Welsh Ukipper who has devoted his time to Wales to be elected - just not Hamilton or Reckless
Those blessed electors in Wales not voting for the right person again Mr NorthWales? What is democracy coming to?
I think Big G is quite right. He is not objecting to anyone voting for a UKIP candidate. He is objecting to the fact that UKIP parachuted in two people to stand as candidates and one of them has now ended up leading the party in Wales. It is symptomatic of what is wrong with political parties these days and UKIP is no better than the rest of them, in spite of their protestations that they are different.
@Danny565 I don't think that's what the article is saying. It's saying that social conservatives are overrepresented and since that's a group that is much more likely than average to be for Leave, that is leading to Leave being overstated.
Personally I thought polling did pretty well by and large in this round of elections. It suggests that the pollsters have done some good work in the last year. UKIP do look to have been a bit overstated though.
In Wales, Abolish the Assembly didn't feature in the polls, but it got 4.5% of the vote. It was established by ex-UKIP activists and would appeal very much to UKIP's constituency.
Rod you need to update the spreadsheet, you forgot to include the Emerson Connecticut poll from April 11th (Hillary 47, Trump 40), yesterday's JMC Louisiana poll (Trump 52, Hillary 36), the Marist Indiana poll from April 30th (Trump 48, Hillary 41) and some others from W.Virginia, California, Minnesota, Idaho.
Hamilton being parachuted into Wales is unacceptable and to be leader of UKIP beggars belief
He was born in Wales. Bedwellty, Monmouthshire to be precise.
Makes no difference - he is using Wales for his own political ambitions.
Where as politicians are there for charity ? please....
I don't like Hamilton much, but he was elected fairly, he has a democratic mandate, crying about it is just so much sour grapes.
Not sour grapes. I would be content for a Welsh Ukipper who has devoted his time to Wales to be elected - just not Hamilton or Reckless
Those blessed electors in Wales not voting for the right person again Mr NorthWales? What is democracy coming to?
As an aside, no one voted for Hamilton or Reckless. The Additional Members were by closed list. People voted for the party. It makes the imposition of Hamilton and Reckless even more undemocratic.
Not all polls are fully integrated into it yet (awaiting HuffPolling to get their act together), but as an "at-a-glance" resource I hope it proves valuable to PBers.
You can make your own Custom forecast by flipping states (from their current forecast).
Rod you need to update the spreadsheet, you forgot to include the Emerson Connecticut poll from April 11th (Hillary 47, Trump 40), yesterday's JMC Louisiana poll (Trump 52, Hillary 36), the Marist Indiana poll from April 30th (Trump 48, Hillary 41) and some others from W.Virginia, California, Minnesota, Idaho.
As I said, I'm hoping these eventually find their way into the HuffPost Pollster CSS feeds (the same source I used for the GOP primary sheet). I am relying on pure automation!
Hamilton being parachuted into Wales is unacceptable and to be leader of UKIP beggars belief
He was born in Wales. Bedwellty, Monmouthshire to be precise.
Makes no difference - he is using Wales for his own political ambitions.
Where as politicians are there for charity ? please....
I don't like Hamilton much, but he was elected fairly, he has a democratic mandate, crying about it is just so much sour grapes.
Not sour grapes. I would be content for a Welsh Ukipper who has devoted his time to Wales to be elected - just not Hamilton or Reckless
Those blessed electors in Wales not voting for the right person again Mr NorthWales? What is democracy coming to?
As an aside, no one voted for Hamilton or Reckless. The Additional Members were by closed list. People voted for the party. It makes the imposition of Hamilton and Reckless even more undemocratic.
Yes, the single transferable vote is better in that respect. Nevertheless, if Reckless and Hamilton were that objectionable then surely it would harmed the Ukip vote.
I rather think I like the sound of Mr. LuckyGuy's bet on Ms Patel and I shall follow him and Mr. Dancer in with a modest wager.
Mind you, for me getting a bet on is no easy matter. Since I went full-time retired I may no longer gamble online (Herself's instructions) and the bookies at the next village over has closed (couldn't make money out us savvy rural gamblers no doubt). Now it is a bus ride to Burgess Hill and with only one bus an hour it's a pain in the bottom just to get a few quid on, say, the 2:30 at Fontwell.
Nonetheless, I think a few quid on Priti Patel at 20/1 might be a sound investment. I can't see any of the other younger fillies in with a shout (Truss having fallen at the first fence) and I reckon she could beat the snot out of any of the geldings
One of the most bizarre facts revealed by the superb Hillsborough documentary shown earlier this week, was that the senior officer (with decades of football match experience) was moved just three weeks before the disaster, due to a re-organization resulting from a conspiracy to 'kidnap' and humiliate a fellow bobby by some [other] South Yorkshire coppers. He was replaced by Dukinfield, who didn't even know the names of the teams...
Hamilton being parachuted into Wales is unacceptable and to be leader of UKIP beggars belief
He was born in Wales. Bedwellty, Monmouthshire to be precise.
Makes no difference - he is using Wales for his own political ambitions.
Where as politicians are there for charity ? please....
I don't like Hamilton much, but he was elected fairly, he has a democratic mandate, crying about it is just so much sour grapes.
Not sour grapes. I would be content for a Welsh Ukipper who has devoted his time to Wales to be elected - just not Hamilton or Reckless
Those blessed electors in Wales not voting for the right person again Mr NorthWales? What is democracy coming to?
As an aside, no one voted for Hamilton or Reckless. The Additional Members were by closed list. People voted for the party. It makes the imposition of Hamilton and Reckless even more undemocratic.
Yes, the single transferable vote is better in that respect. Nevertheless, if Reckless and Hamilton were that objectionable then surely it would harmed the Ukip vote.
Since their names were not even on the ballot paper I wonder how many people knew they were top of the UKIP lists?
Trump will win AZ comfortably. McCain knows Arizona politics, and has internal polls, and that he has been forced to endorse Trump says a lot about his struggles with primary challenger Kelli Ward, as well as Trump’s strength in the state. AZ has little to no chance of going Democrat. Putting a lot of faith in one poll, so far out is not wise.
The Georgia poll was somewhat misleading with just a one point lead for Trump. This was essentially only due to the large number of undecided Republican voters, come the election most will vote Trump and Georgia will be a comfortable GOP hold. Interestingly the numbers make it clear that Clinton is not closing the sale with Black voters. She is leading “just” 73/9 (very low for a Democrat), but with 17% of Backs saying they are undecided she could be facing an even bigger problem.
Interesting to Peter Thiel is a potential Trump delegate.
Given Trump's popularity with the White working class while Hispanics loathe him it is possible Trump wins Ohio but loses Arizona
Trump will win AZ comfortably. McCain knows Arizona politics, and has internal polls, and that he has been forced to endorse Trump says a lot about his struggles with primary challenger Kelli Ward, as well as Trump’s strength in the state. AZ has little to no chance of going Democrat. Putting a lot of faith in one poll, so far out is not wise.
The Georgia poll was somewhat misleading with just a one point lead for Trump. This was essentially only due to the large number of undecided Republican voters, come the election most will vote Trump and Georgia will be a comfortable GOP hold. Interestingly the numbers make it clear that Clinton is not closing the sale with Black voters. She is leading “just” 73/9 (very low for a Democrat), but with 17% of Backs saying they are undecided she could be facing an even bigger problem.
Interesting to Peter Thiel is a potential Trump delegate.
Given Trump's popularity with the White working class while Hispanics loathe him it is possible Trump wins Ohio but loses Arizona
What stats are you citing re Hispanic voters hating Trump?
Hamilton being parachuted into Wales is unacceptable and to be leader of UKIP beggars belief
He was born in Wales. Bedwellty, Monmouthshire to be precise.
Makes no difference - he is using Wales for his own political ambitions.
Where as politicians are there for charity ? please....
I don't like Hamilton much, but he was elected fairly, he has a democratic mandate, crying about it is just so much sour grapes.
Not sour grapes. I would be content for a Welsh Ukipper who has devoted his time to Wales to be elected - just not Hamilton or Reckless
Those blessed electors in Wales not voting for the right person again Mr NorthWales? What is democracy coming to?
As an aside, no one voted for Hamilton or Reckless. The Additional Members were by closed list. People voted for the party. It makes the imposition of Hamilton and Reckless even more undemocratic.
Yes, the single transferable vote is better in that respect. Nevertheless, if Reckless and Hamilton were that objectionable then surely it would harmed the Ukip vote.
Since their names were not even on the ballot paper I wonder how many people knew they were top of the UKIP lists?
Mr. Tyndall, if you don't like the rules then complain about them, but please don't whinge about people who were elected under them and call their election undemocratic.
If it was endangering aircraft as the article says then good job.
Cost of a helicopter, v cost of sending a police car, motorcyclist or horseman over to the Downs to do the job. Very unlikely that any aircraft were on a flightpath at the time. The spin from the cops is transparent.
Agree with Don Brind about patriotism.The Japanese POWs are gradually dying out,My father was in the Burma Star club regularly and the first people I looked after were Japanese POWs who had been near destroyed.We should never forget these men,and women.
Trump will win AZ comfortably. McCain knows Arizona politics, and has internal polls, and that he has been forced to endorse Trump says a lot about his struggles with primary challenger Kelli Ward, as well as Trump’s strength in the state. AZ has little to no chance of going Democrat. Putting a lot of faith in one poll, so far out is not wise.
The Georgia poll was somewhat misleading with just a one point lead for Trump. This was essentially only due to the large number of undecided Republican voters, come the election most will vote Trump and Georgia will be a comfortable GOP hold. Interestingly the numbers make it clear that Clinton is not closing the sale with Black voters. She is leading “just” 73/9 (very low for a Democrat), but with 17% of Backs saying they are undecided she could be facing an even bigger problem.
Interesting to Peter Thiel is a potential Trump delegate.
Given Trump's popularity with the White working class while Hispanics loathe him it is possible Trump wins Ohio but loses Arizona
What stats are you citing re Hispanic voters hating Trump?
Every stat ever done, his ratings are abysmal he could do up to 10% worse than Romney with Hispanics
Hamilton being parachuted into Wales is unacceptable and to be leader of UKIP beggars belief
He was born in Wales. Bedwellty, Monmouthshire to be precise.
Makes no difference - he is using Wales for his own political ambitions.
Where as politicians are there for charity ? please....
I don't like Hamilton much, but he was elected fairly, he has a democratic mandate, crying about it is just so much sour grapes.
Not sour grapes. I would be content for a Welsh Ukipper who has devoted his time to Wales to be elected - just not Hamilton or Reckless
Those blessed electors in Wales not voting for the right person again Mr NorthWales? What is democracy coming to?
As an aside, no one voted for Hamilton or Reckless. The Additional Members were by closed list. People voted for the party. It makes the imposition of Hamilton and Reckless even more undemocratic.
Yes, the single transferable vote is better in that respect. Nevertheless, if Reckless and Hamilton were that objectionable then surely it would harmed the Ukip vote.
Since their names were not even on the ballot paper I wonder how many people knew they were top of the UKIP lists?
Mr. Tyndall, if you don't like the rules then complain about them, but please don't whinge about people who were elected under them and call their election undemocratic.
You are right I don't like the rules and they are undemocratic. Next point?
Trump will win AZ comfortably. McCain knows Arizona politics, and has internal polls, and that he has been forced to endorse Trump says a lot about his struggles with primary challenger Kelli Ward, as well as Trump’s strength in the state. AZ has little to no chance of going Democrat. Putting a lot of faith in one poll, so far out is not wise.
The Georgia poll was somewhat misleading with just a one point lead for Trump. This was essentially only due to the large number of undecided Republican voters, come the election most will vote Trump and Georgia will be a comfortable GOP hold. Interestingly the numbers make it clear that Clinton is not closing the sale with Black voters. She is leading “just” 73/9 (very low for a Democrat), but with 17% of Backs saying they are undecided she could be facing an even bigger problem.
Interesting to Peter Thiel is a potential Trump delegate.
Given Trump's popularity with the White working class while Hispanics loathe him it is possible Trump wins Ohio but loses Arizona
What stats are you citing re Hispanic voters hating Trump?
I haven't seen any May Polling but over pervious months Trump has had 70%+ unfavorables amongst Hispanics with Gallup and the like.
Hamilton being parachuted into Wales is unacceptable and to be leader of UKIP beggars belief
He was born in Wales. Bedwellty, Monmouthshire to be precise.
Makes no difference - he is using Wales for his own political ambitions.
Where as politicians are there for charity ? please....
I don't like Hamilton much, but he was elected fairly, he has a democratic mandate, crying about it is just so much sour grapes.
Not sour grapes. I would be content for a Welsh Ukipper who has devoted his time to Wales to be elected - just not Hamilton or Reckless
Those blessed electors in Wales not voting for the right person again Mr NorthWales? What is democracy coming to?
As an aside, no one voted for Hamilton or Reckless. The Additional Members were by closed list. People voted for the party. It makes the imposition of Hamilton and Reckless even more undemocratic.
Yes, the single transferable vote is better in that respect. Nevertheless, if Reckless and Hamilton were that objectionable then surely it would harmed the Ukip vote.
Since their names were not even on the ballot paper I wonder how many people knew they were top of the UKIP lists?
I didn't know that. To be honest many voters don't know who they are voting for - even in FPTP. They just see the party logo and away they go.
Hamilton being parachuted into Wales is unacceptable and to be leader of UKIP beggars belief
He was born in Wales. Bedwellty, Monmouthshire to be precise.
Makes no difference - he is using Wales for his own political ambitions.
Where as politicians are there for charity ? please....
I don't like Hamilton much, but he was elected fairly, he has a democratic mandate, crying about it is just so much sour grapes.
Not sour grapes. I would be content for a Welsh Ukipper who has devoted his time to Wales to be elected - just not Hamilton or Reckless
Those blessed electors in Wales not voting for the right person again Mr NorthWales? What is democracy coming to?
As an aside, no one voted for Hamilton or Reckless. The Additional Members were by closed list. People voted for the party. It makes the imposition of Hamilton and Reckless even more undemocratic.
Yes, the single transferable vote is better in that respect. Nevertheless, if Reckless and Hamilton were that objectionable then surely it would harmed the Ukip vote.
Since their names were not even on the ballot paper I wonder how many people knew they were top of the UKIP lists?
Mr. Tyndall, if you don't like the rules then complain about them, but please don't whinge about people who were elected under them and call their election undemocratic.
You are right I don't like the rules and they are undemocratic. Next point?
Then the names of the people elected under this system do not matter. This time it was Reckless and Hamilton next time it might be 617 Jones and 639 Jones, two men, who aside from military service, have never left Brecon in their lives. The end result would still be as unpalatable, wouldn't it?
Hamilton being parachuted into Wales is unacceptable and to be leader of UKIP beggars belief
He was born in Wales. Bedwellty, Monmouthshire to be precise.
Makes no difference - he is using Wales for his own political ambitions.
Where as politicians are there for charity ? please....
I don't like Hamilton much, but he was elected fairly, he has a democratic mandate, crying about it is just so much sour grapes.
Not sour grapes. I would be content for a Welsh Ukipper who has devoted his time to Wales to be elected - just not Hamilton or Reckless
Those blessed electors in Wales not voting for the right person again Mr NorthWales? What is democracy coming to?
As an aside, no one voted for Hamilton or Reckless. The Additional Members were by closed list. People voted for the party. It makes the imposition of Hamilton and Reckless even more undemocratic.
Yes, the single transferable vote is better in that respect. Nevertheless, if Reckless and Hamilton were that objectionable then surely it would harmed the Ukip vote.
Since their names were not even on the ballot paper I wonder how many people knew they were top of the UKIP lists?
I didn't know that. To be honest many voters don't know who they are voting for - even in FPTP. They just see the party logo and away they go.
Trump will win AZ comfortably. McCain knows Arizona politics, and has internal polls, and that he has been forced to endorse Trump says a lot about his struggles with primary challenger Kelli Ward, as well as Trump’s strength in the state. AZ has little to no chance of going Democrat. Putting a lot of faith in one poll, so far out is not wise.
The Georgia poll was somewhat misleading with just a one point lead for Trump. This was essentially only due to the large number of undecided Republican voters, come the election most will vote Trump and Georgia will be a comfortable GOP hold. Interestingly the numbers make it clear that Clinton is not closing the sale with Black voters. She is leading “just” 73/9 (very low for a Democrat), but with 17% of Backs saying they are undecided she could be facing an even bigger problem.
Interesting to Peter Thiel is a potential Trump delegate.
Given Trump's popularity with the White working class while Hispanics loathe him it is possible Trump wins Ohio but loses Arizona
What stats are you citing re Hispanic voters hating Trump?
Every stat ever done, his ratings are abysmal he could do up to 10% worse than Romney with Hispanics
Trump will win AZ comfortably. McCain knows Arizona politics, and has internal polls, and that he has been forced to endorse Trump says a lot about his struggles with primary challenger Kelli Ward, as well as Trump’s strength in the state. AZ has little to no chance of going Democrat. Putting a lot of faith in one poll, so far out is not wise.
The Georgia poll was somewhat misleading with just a one point lead for Trump. This was essentially only due to the large number of undecided Republican voters, come the election most will vote Trump and Georgia will be a comfortable GOP hold. Interestingly the numbers make it clear that Clinton is not closing the sale with Black voters. She is leading “just” 73/9 (very low for a Democrat), but with 17% of Backs saying they are undecided she could be facing an even bigger problem.
Interesting to Peter Thiel is a potential Trump delegate.
Given Trump's popularity with the White working class while Hispanics loathe him it is possible Trump wins Ohio but loses Arizona
What stats are you citing re Hispanic voters hating Trump?
Alastair Meeks : "All this was lost because David Cameron decided to prioritise his own hobby horse. Right now it looks like a very serious mistake."
Do you mean in terms of him being largely responsible for losing the EU Referendum?
The more this seems more than only a remote possibility as we had imagined just a few short weeks ago, but now a distinct prospect, the more I'm expecting to see a leakage of Labour-supporting REMAINERS switching sides in an attempt to see off Cameron and thereby, in their eyes, significantly weakening the Tory Government, possibly to the extent of forcing an earlier than otherwise General Election. This factor could already be taking place to some extent, explaining why against the odds LEAVE continues to close the gap.
Count quite a lot of US out of your "remote possibility as WE had imagined" ...
Hamilton being parachuted into Wales is unacceptable and to be leader of UKIP beggars belief
He was born in Wales. Bedwellty, Monmouthshire to be precise.
Makes no difference - he is using Wales for his own political ambitions.
Where as politicians are there for charity ? please....
I don't like Hamilton much, but he was elected fairly, he has a democratic mandate, crying about it is just so much sour grapes.
Not sour grapes. I would be content for a Welsh Ukipper who has devoted his time to Wales to be elected - just not Hamilton or Reckless
Those blessed electors in Wales not voting for the right person again Mr NorthWales? What is democracy coming to?
As an aside, no one voted for Hamilton or Reckless. The Additional Members were by closed list. People voted for the party. It makes the imposition of Hamilton and Reckless even more undemocratic.
Yes, the single transferable vote is better in that respect. Nevertheless, if Reckless and Hamilton were that objectionable then surely it would harmed the Ukip vote.
Since their names were not even on the ballot paper I wonder how many people knew they were top of the UKIP lists?
Mr. Tyndall, if you don't like the rules then complain about them, but please don't whinge about people who were elected under them and call their election undemocratic.
You are right I don't like the rules and they are undemocratic. Next point?
Then the names of the people elected under this system do not matter. This time it was Reckless and Hamilton next time it might be 617 Jones and 639 Jones, two men, who aside from military service, have never left Brecon in their lives. The end result would still be as unpalatable, wouldn't it?
Yes entirely. In this instance it is not just that the system is so bad it can be played in this way, it is also the fact that UKIP - who claim to be different to the other parties - play it in just the same way. Of course I am not surprised about that, not with Farage in charge, but it is still something that needs to be attacked.
Trump is the least-popular candidate in the history of candidate popularity being a quantified thing. To rely on NEITHER public vote intention polling, NOR personal approval ratings, is mystical thinking. He is nowhere near likely to become the next President.
So what, it's yet another muslim engaging in a disgusting, murderous attack - and reinforces the view that taking in another million muslims last year was suicidally stupid.
Hamilton being parachuted into Wales is unacceptable and to be leader of UKIP beggars belief
He was born in Wales. Bedwellty, Monmouthshire to be precise.
Makes no difference - he is using Wales for his own political ambitions.
Where as politicians are there for charity ? please....
I don't like Hamilton much, but he was elected fairly, he has a democratic mandate, crying about it is just so much sour grapes.
Not sour grapes. I would be content for a Welsh Ukipper who has devoted his time to Wales to be elected - just not Hamilton or Reckless
Those blessed electors in Wales not voting for the right person again Mr NorthWales? What is democracy coming to?
As an aside, no one voted for Hamilton or Reckless. The Additional Members were by closed list. People voted for the party. It makes the imposition of Hamilton and Reckless even more undemocratic.
Yes, the single transferable vote is better in that respect. Nevertheless, if Reckless and Hamilton were that objectionable then surely it would harmed the Ukip vote.
Since their names were not even on the ballot paper I wonder how many people knew they were top of the UKIP lists?
I didn't know that. To be honest many voters don't know who they are voting for - even in FPTP. They just see the party logo and away they go.
In other words... FPTP is a closed list of ONE!
The vital difference being that in FPTP you are voting for an individual not a party.
The latest Arizona poll last month from Behaviour Research has Clinton beating Trump 42% to 35% (Cruz beat Clinton 43% to 38% by contrast and Kasich beat Clinton 44% to 32%). http://www.brcpolls.com/16/RMP 2016-II-04.pdf
Trump will win AZ comfortably. McCain knows Arizona politics, and has internal polls, and that he has been forced to endorse Trump says a lot about his struggles with primary challenger Kelli Ward, as well as Trump’s strength in the state. AZ has little to no chance of going Democrat. Putting a lot of faith in one poll, so far out is not wise.
The Georgia poll was somewhat misleading with just a one point lead for Trump. This was essentially only due to the large number of undecided Republican voters, come the election most will vote Trump and Georgia will be a comfortable GOP hold. Interestingly the numbers make it clear that Clinton is not closing the sale with Black voters. She is leading “just” 73/9 (very low for a Democrat), but with 17% of Backs saying they are undecided she could be facing an even bigger problem.
Interesting to Peter Thiel is a potential Trump delegate.
Given Trump's popularity with the White working class while Hispanics loathe him it is possible Trump wins Ohio but loses Arizona
What stats are you citing re Hispanic voters hating Trump?
Some of those crosstabs are really depressing. 5-6 per cent think Cruz was the Zodiac Killer or the son of an assassin's assistant. 32 per cent think Obama is a Muslim.
Trump will win AZ comfortably. McCain knows Arizona politics, and has internal polls, and that he has been forced to endorse Trump says a lot about his struggles with primary challenger Kelli Ward, as well as Trump’s strength in the state. AZ has little to no chance of going Democrat. Putting a lot of faith in one poll, so far out is not wise.
The Georgia poll was somewhat misleading with just a one point lead for Trump. This was essentially only due to the large number of undecided Republican voters, come the election most will vote Trump and Georgia will be a comfortable GOP hold. Interestingly the numbers make it clear that Clinton is not closing the sale with Black voters. She is leading “just” 73/9 (very low for a Democrat), but with 17% of Backs saying they are undecided she could be facing an even bigger problem.
Interesting to Peter Thiel is a potential Trump delegate.
Given Trump's popularity with the White working class while Hispanics loathe him it is possible Trump wins Ohio but loses Arizona
What stats are you citing re Hispanic voters hating Trump?
Every stat ever done, his ratings are abysmal he could do up to 10% worse than Romney with Hispanics
Trump will win AZ comfortably. McCain knows Arizona politics, and has internal polls, and that he has been forced to endorse Trump says a lot about his struggles with primary challenger Kelli Ward, as well as Trump’s strength in the state. AZ has little to no chance of going Democrat. Putting a lot of faith in one poll, so far out is not wise.
The Georgia poll was somewhat misleading with just a one point lead for Trump. This was essentially only due to the large number of undecided Republican voters, come the election most will vote Trump and Georgia will be a comfortable GOP hold. Interestingly the numbers make it clear that Clinton is not closing the sale with Black voters. She is leading “just” 73/9 (very low for a Democrat), but with 17% of Backs saying they are undecided she could be facing an even bigger problem.
Interesting to Peter Thiel is a potential Trump delegate.
Given Trump's popularity with the White working class while Hispanics loathe him it is possible Trump wins Ohio but loses Arizona
What stats are you citing re Hispanic voters hating Trump?
Some of those crosstabs are really depressing. 5-6 per cent think Cruz was the Zodiac Killer or the son of an assassin's assistant. 32 per cent think Obama is a Muslim.
Hamilton being parachuted into Wales is unacceptable and to be leader of UKIP beggars belief
He was born in Wales. Bedwellty, Monmouthshire to be precise.
Makes no difference - he is using Wales for his own political ambitions.
Where as politicians are there for charity ? please....
I don't like Hamilton much, but he was elected fairly, he has a democratic mandate, crying about it is just so much sour grapes.
Not sour grapes. I would be content for a Welsh Ukipper who has devoted his time to Wales to be elected - just not Hamilton or Reckless
Those blessed electors in Wales not voting for the right person again Mr NorthWales? What is democracy coming to?
As an aside, no one voted for Hamilton or Reckless. The Additional Members were by closed list. People voted for the party. It makes the imposition of Hamilton and Reckless even more undemocratic.
Yes, the single transferable vote is better in that respect. Nevertheless, if Reckless and Hamilton were that objectionable then surely it would harmed the Ukip vote.
Since their names were not even on the ballot paper I wonder how many people knew they were top of the UKIP lists?
I didn't know that. To be honest many voters don't know who they are voting for - even in FPTP. They just see the party logo and away they go.
In other words... FPTP is a closed list of ONE!
The vital difference being that in FPTP you are voting for an individual not a party.
Perhaps we can substitute today's refugee terrorists:
An Isil-linked terror cell exploited migrant routes in to Europe to plot terror attacks on the UK, police fear, as Theresa May yesterday ordered a shake-up of Britain’s coastal defences.
The group photographed suspected targets in London, including hotels, restaurants and a health centre and may have planned to slip attackers in through Calais.
The alleged plot was unearthed after two Afghan men and a Pakistani man were arrested in Italy yesterday. (tues)
If Hillary wins Arizona she wins the EC 276-262 even if Trump wins Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania (and providing she holds the other states Obama won in 2012) http://www.270towin.com/
Cameron and the former NATO secretary-generals may be singing that a Remain result is vital for defence reasons, but they have already lost the army vote. A poll on the main British army forums site found that 91% thought Britain would be safer out of the EU and 9% inside, with 259 people taking part.
I have seen many cars carrying both "Help for Heroes" and "Britain out of the EU" stickers, but I haven't seen a single one carrying a "Help for Heroes" sticker and one saying that Britain should stay inside the EU.
When you take soldiers' families into account, and personnel in the other services and their families, and territorials and veterans, you have got quite a big demographic and I doubt the prevalence of opinion in favour of Brexit will be much lower in this wider group than it is among the users of the said forums.
Do pollsters take account of this group, or are they too busy dividing people by criteria such as how they voted in the general election and how likely they say they are to vote in the referendum? I kind of somehow don't envisage many residents on service bases, whether service personnel or their spouses, agreeing to take phone calls from pollsters, but what do I know? I also think there will be a very high turnout in this group.
Cameron is basically saying to the non-service population "stay in the EU because it'll be safer for defence", while to the part of the population who actually wear service uniforms, many of whom have lost comrades in combat in places like Afghanistan, he's saying "Eff off. Who cares what you think, you tossers?"
Cameron will be out of office this year no matter what.
Yes entirely. In this instance it is not just that the system is so bad it can be played in this way, it is also the fact that UKIP - who claim to be different to the other parties - play it in just the same way. Of course I am not surprised about that, not with Farage in charge, but it is still something that needs to be attacked.
Forgive me, Mr. Tyndall, but it seems to me that your real beef is with UKIP under Farage and not with the system. A system that has been in place for a good few years now and has been "played", as you put it, by all parties since its introduction.
Perhaps I am wrong, I frequently am. In which case I am sure you and Big G will be able to point me at posts you have made complaining about the system before it delivered these results.
I don't know the Telegraph is going on about, isn't this just what it is like on an average Tuesday night round those parts?
What a despicable rude unconscionable ill-informed comment to make !!
I am barely a mile from Upton Park and I can assure you most Tuesday evenings in Green Lane you will find groups of people enjoying a small glass of wine and discussing Hegelian philosophy and admiring the local street theatre performing scenes from Pinter or Arthur Miller on request.
Comments
Afghan terrorists plotting attacks on London are on the run
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/10/italian-terror-cell-plotting-attacks-in-uk-police-fear/
Personally I thought polling did pretty well by and large in this round of elections. It suggests that the pollsters have done some good work in the last year. UKIP do look to have been a bit overstated though.
But the referendum?? I reckon Nige will be able to summon the full rohirrim for that one.
As the establishment Orc army besieges the white city of Britain, A loud blast on a faraway hill..
I don't like Hamilton much, but he was elected fairly, he has a democratic mandate, crying about it is just so much sour grapes.
The net amount we pay is between £8.5 billion and £10 billion a year. And no we should not be using the net figure. We should be using the gross figure. The money we get back (our own taxpayers money) is controlled by the EU. They decide where it is spent, what conditions are placed on it and in many cases demand that the UK taxpayer then provides matched funding as a pre-condition of getting the money at all.
A great example of this idiocy from a couple of days ago:
http://nottinghampost.com/Dozens-units-4m-Sneinton-Market-EU-money/story-29249405-detail/story.html
So no, we should not be using the net figure, any more than we deduct the cost of services from our tax bill.
And there is no status quo.
Nice one.
Which means we should take them quite seriously on the referendum. (Obviously there's the phone/online divide to consider.)
Winning Utah, Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Idaho by a single point still gives him the E.C. votes, even if his weakness in safe republican states costs him the popular vote nationally.
His weakness in safe R. states depresses his national vote share by a couple of points and masks his strengh in the marginal states that matter. That's why I put the cutoff point at around 4-5 points behind Hillary, if Trump is closer than that then he should win the swing states and the presidency.
The fact is power of patronage is seeping away from Westminster apace.
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_National_51016.pdf
Democratic voters:
Hillary 84%
Trump 9%
Republican voters:
Trump 82%
Hillary 8%
There is not much space to grow from the allegiances of their own party, it's mostly up to independents now.
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/hillary-clinton-favorable-rating
Rubio OTOH at 130/210 looks to be horrible, he should be longer than Cruz even though we're talking about a tiny tiny tail of probabilities where it isn't Trump.
The Georgia poll was somewhat misleading with just a one point lead for Trump. This was essentially only due to the large number of undecided Republican voters, come the election most will vote Trump and Georgia will be a comfortable GOP hold. Interestingly the numbers make it clear that Clinton is not closing the sale with Black voters. She is leading “just” 73/9 (very low for a Democrat), but with 17% of Backs saying they are undecided she could be facing an even bigger problem.
Interesting to Peter Thiel is a potential Trump delegate.
http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TM651Y15_13/filters/LIKELY:1
Hillary 41
Trump 40
Trump up 5 points since he got the nomination.
Hillary down by 7 though.
It's almost a tie between Hillary and Trump now in my second indicator of the US race.
http://www.theguardian.com/football/2016/may/10/arsenal-danny-welbeck-out-months-knee-surgery-england-euro-2016
Another one bites the dust.
Not all polls are fully integrated into it yet (awaiting HuffPolling to get their act together), but as an "at-a-glance" resource I hope it proves valuable to PBers.
You can make your own Custom forecast by flipping states (from their current forecast).
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1V6KwNnbBO1q4dDwC1r0rujdcNByLHpVI1O2WKpzNfV8/edit?usp=sharing
Comments welcome...
http://mapchart.net/usa.html
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ozj0qwnMGZ0
EDIT: The EU only admit to bits of it being available from what I can understand here
http://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/press/index.cfm?id=1230
Early days, anyhow...
Five men accused of misusing police helicopter camera to film people naked or having sex https://t.co/TFKelVh8ms https://t.co/IVosFbbKm5
Mind you, for me getting a bet on is no easy matter. Since I went full-time retired I may no longer gamble online (Herself's instructions) and the bookies at the next village over has closed (couldn't make money out us savvy rural gamblers no doubt). Now it is a bus ride to Burgess Hill and with only one bus an hour it's a pain in the bottom just to get a few quid on, say, the 2:30 at Fontwell.
Nonetheless, I think a few quid on Priti Patel at 20/1 might be a sound investment. I can't see any of the other younger fillies in with a shout (Truss having fallen at the first fence) and I reckon she could beat the snot out of any of the geldings
Total asshats.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-bristol-36242816
https://twitter.com/Glinner/status/316865197925072899
https://twitter.com/itvfootball/status/730105094017011712
https://www.quora.com/Who-is-Donald-Trump-most-likely-to-chose-as-a-Vice-President/answer/Chris-Cillizza?share=baea25aa
Erdoğan seeks injunction against German media chief who laughed at poem https://t.co/FbDpP7A0Ct
http://cookpolitical.com/story/8608
Hillary just has terrible numbers with white men.
I don't know the Telegraph is going on about, isn't this just what it is like on an average Tuesday night round those parts?
20 per cent is a very large share of an electorate if it mobilises more or less in a bloc.
Think of Irish- or Jewish-Americans.
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_National_51016.pdf
To rely on NEITHER public vote intention polling, NOR personal approval ratings, is mystical thinking. He is nowhere near likely to become the next President.
"Vote Hillary: and Risk a Red In the White House?"
The latest Arizona poll last month from Behaviour Research has Clinton beating Trump 42% to 35% (Cruz beat Clinton 43% to 38% by contrast and Kasich beat Clinton 44% to 32%).
http://www.brcpolls.com/16/RMP 2016-II-04.pdf
5-6 per cent think Cruz was the Zodiac Killer or the son of an assassin's assistant.
32 per cent think Obama is a Muslim.
Quick, get the spirit level....
An Isil-linked terror cell exploited migrant routes in to Europe to plot terror attacks on the UK, police fear, as Theresa May yesterday ordered a shake-up of Britain’s coastal defences.
The group photographed suspected targets in London, including hotels, restaurants and a health centre and may have planned to slip attackers in through Calais.
The alleged plot was unearthed after two Afghan men and a Pakistani man were arrested in Italy yesterday. (tues)
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/10/italian-terror-cell-plotting-attacks-in-uk-police-fear/
If we vote Leave will they stop singing in English?
http://www.270towin.com/
I have seen many cars carrying both "Help for Heroes" and "Britain out of the EU" stickers, but I haven't seen a single one carrying a "Help for Heroes" sticker and one saying that Britain should stay inside the EU.
When you take soldiers' families into account, and personnel in the other services and their families, and territorials and veterans, you have got quite a big demographic and I doubt the prevalence of opinion in favour of Brexit will be much lower in this wider group than it is among the users of the said forums.
Do pollsters take account of this group, or are they too busy dividing people by criteria such as how they voted in the general election and how likely they say they are to vote in the referendum? I kind of somehow don't envisage many residents on service bases, whether service personnel or their spouses, agreeing to take phone calls from pollsters, but what do I know? I also think there will be a very high turnout in this group.
Cameron is basically saying to the non-service population "stay in the EU because it'll be safer for defence", while to the part of the population who actually wear service uniforms, many of whom have lost comrades in combat in places like Afghanistan, he's saying "Eff off. Who cares what you think, you tossers?"
Cameron will be out of office this year no matter what.
WTF would he know?
Perhaps I am wrong, I frequently am. In which case I am sure you and Big G will be able to point me at posts you have made complaining about the system before it delivered these results.
I am barely a mile from Upton Park and I can assure you most Tuesday evenings in Green Lane you will find groups of people enjoying a small glass of wine and discussing Hegelian philosophy and admiring the local street theatre performing scenes from Pinter or Arthur Miller on request.