And yet according to the FT journalist who followed the lead up to the negotiations and who was interviewed for WaO on Radio 4, limits on freedom of movement is exactly the position Cameron was pursuing until perhaps 24 hours before his speech. The journalist effectively backed exactly what IDS claimed this morning.
Well, I wasn't there, so I can't comment. I did say at the time that I was surprised Cameron didn't get more concessions on benefits. But what does that show? It shows that our EU friends - especially those in Eastern Europe - thought that this was a key point for them. That's not going to change if we leave. Therefore, if we want full access to the Single Market, we'll be up against exactly the same problem.
No No No No No.
You clearly don't understand how much more influence and leverage we will have over the single market if we are outside it seeking access, rather than a member.
Just like whereas we can't negotiate favourable trade deals in the 28-member EU we nevertheless fancy our chances with the 162-member WTO.
Simple, innit.
We don't get to negotiate trade deals I'm the EU. Someone else does it on our behalf and generally makes a right mess of it. So yes we would be in a much better position at the WTO because we would have a vote. Something we don't have now.
BBC presenters can hardly contain their glee at the PM's gaffe and made it their lead story. How truly pathetic. Even though there was a camera and microphone, I thought comments made when the Queen is present are normally private.
To be fair they did say he spoke to truth and that the Country's leaders accept they have a big problem. Also they said that it has highlighted the conference he is hosting in the next few days and his fight against corruption. Indeed the BBC were reasonably balanced and I do not say that about the BBC very often
Well if they demonise Cameron, the big white hope for the Remain campaign just gets dished.
Wonder what they would have done if Mr Farage had said the same thing . . .
'BBC presenters can hardly contain their glee at the PM's gaffe and made it their lead story. How truly pathetic. Even though there was a camera and microphone, I thought comments made when the Queen is present are normally private.'
What's wrong with our politicians telling the truth occasionally ?
Maybe they could give us an estimate of how many billions of taxpayers money has been wasted in these countries.
Our net EU contribution was £8,500,000,000 in 2015
In reference to the thread, the process behind the referendum and the preceding negotiation will always attract criticism. The end product and the deal the electorate will vote upon was never going to be radically different due to the then status quo. The fact that treaties and modifications to the EU have been agreed by the members over the years makes it very difficult to change the rules beyond small changes as Harold Wilsons 1970s referenda showed.
The leave side amuse me in utilising the services of Iain Duncan Smith to try and appeal to Labour voters, what planet do the leave side live on? IDS is hated by most Labour supporters, especially those on benefits as his zealotry and intolerance of the less fortunate in society is amongst the most extreme of any Conservative party representative. People on benefits does not just include those on Jobseekers allowance but all sorts of different benefits that have been eroded, replaced by more stringent allowances or withdrawn. As a supporter of remain I can only thank IDS for his latest intervention!
The leave side seem to have the collective appeal of an unloved season, it surprises me the level of Leave support in the polls. I think this is wrong and Remain will win by 57% to 43% Leave in the end as people will opt for the status quo. I am also minded to remember that there was a substantial swing to the Remain campaign in the 1970s in the late stages. I think this will happen again due to the economic uncertainty of Leave.
Leave have not communicated a viable alternative to the Remain campaign. I simply do not think they understand economics. For instance they say the EU is not a growing market and so we should leave the EU to concentrate on the rest of the world.
Firstly, does this mean that we should simply allow the terms of trade to get even worse with the EU by leaving the EU? We sell significant volumes of services to the EU. Is Leaves position that giving up on these markets does not matter? As that is what they seem to be implying, it seems to be economic madness because something of a stagnant market is better than nothing at all!
Secondly, the myth that the UK can sell services to developing markets to compensate for loss of trade with the EU. It simply is beyond reason that undeveloped markets at this time will want the type of services the UK and particularly London specialises in and has a competitive advantage against alternative countries. Sure if the rest of the world was as developed as the European or Northern American market it would be fine but the rest of the world is not that developed and so it seems to be a question of Leave wanting to propagate a myth that the UK can thrive outside the EU without a fundamentally realistic proposition for an alternative.
Finally on a different area of interest, why is the EU deemed to be bad by Leave but NATO good?
BBC presenters can hardly contain their glee at the PM's gaffe and made it their lead story. How truly pathetic. Even though there was a camera and microphone, I thought comments made when the Queen is present are normally private.
To be fair they did say he spoke to truth and that the Country's leaders accept they have a big problem. Also they said that it has highlighted the conference he is hosting in the next few days and his fight against corruption. Indeed the BBC were reasonably balanced and I do not say that about the BBC very often
Well if they demonise Cameron, the big white hope for the Remain campaign just gets dished.
Wonder what they would have done if Mr Farage had said the same thing . . .
He will never be in the position to say the same thing
'BGNW..India and Egypt are well up there in the corruption league..I was in a negotiation with an Egyptian official and was told that in order to get the deal done I would have to take a brand new Merc to his office...and take a taxi home.'
I spent most of my multinational career working in the Middle East & Africa and corruption is a normal way of life,in Nigeria it normally started at passport control in Lagos airport.
Tony Lloyd (Lab PCC) is doing his nut over this, rather than backing the plod. He said this is wrongly stigmatizing Muslims. Because the threat of suicide bombing in the Western World is well known to be equally distributed among different faiths.
If they had been doing a response to an armed robbery I might have to sympathy.
What stigmatizes Muslims is the fact that some Muslims behave like such total arseholes allegedly on behalf of all Muslims and in the name of their religion that they drag others into their vilely warped view of life.
Much as the IRA did for Irishmen in the 1970's.
What will stop the stigma is when the arseholes stop being arseholes. And Tony Lloyd might more usefully use his gob to make this point. Or shut up, if he can't say anything sensible.
What was it that Trevor Phillips said this morning about liberal self-delusion?
Apologies for all the bad language but really......
And much as the British and US governments did for Brits and Americans in 2003 in Iraq.
I've tried, but I can't get very excited about the Prime Minister's supposed faux pas today. It's hardly news that Nigeria and Afghanistan are thought to be very corrupt. I'd be more concerned if the Prime Minister thought otherwise.
The leave side amuse me in utilising the services of Iain Duncan Smith to try and appeal to Labour voters, what planet do the leave side live on? IDS is hated by most Labour supporters,
IDS does seem to be tickling the fancy of the Tim Montgomery faction, but for me he seems to be demonstrating in spades why the Tories did so "well" under his stewardship
And since the Brexiteers are going to be upset at this post, I may as well include this
@RupertMyers: Brexiter: The EU does nothing for our security. It's all down to NATO & our allies. NATO & our allies: don't leave the EU Brexiter: hush now
John Zims..After a week of negotiations..yes a week..I was given a list indicating how much I had to pay each official in the chain of command in order to get my filming equipment cleared through Customs... This was at Mumbai Airport and the officials were all Indian Customs Officers...
I've tried, but I can't get very excited about the Prime Minister's supposed faux pas today. It's hardly news that Nigeria and Afghanistan are thought to be very corrupt. I'd be more concerned if the Prime Minister thought otherwise.
One of my more colourful investigations involved a complex set of transactions between various companies in various ever more implausible countries (implausible from the perspective of what people doing it claimed to be doing), ending up with a company incorporated in Afghanistan through which "advisory payments" to a European porcelain company were being channelled.
This went off the scale of my "Does this smell right?"-o-meter.
I've tried, but I can't get very excited about the Prime Minister's supposed faux pas today. It's hardly news that Nigeria and Afghanistan are thought to be very corrupt. I'd be more concerned if the Prime Minister thought otherwise.
Although it's amusing, I do think the Guardian are outdoing themselves by trying to get themselves in a moral outrage about it.
@RupertMyers: Brexiter: The EU does nothing for our security. It's all down to NATO & our allies. NATO & our allies: don't leave the EU Brexiter: hush now
Actually it's even better, because the last line is really 'How DARE you interfere!
Finally on a different area of interest, why is the EU deemed to be bad by Leave but NATO good?
Because NATO isn't a nascent superstate making laws for us?
That is true, however the UK is signed up to all manner of things that diminishes UK sovereignty. There are somethings in life now that do not recognise borders such as the internet. I simply cannot get worked up about sovereignty in the way I could have done 20 years ago. Things have moved on and look unlikely to be picked apart in my view of the world. I also think that being in the EU, helps the UK punch above its weight internationally as without EU membership the UK would have slipped further down the power rankings much faster than it has done.
'BGNW..India and Egypt are well up there in the corruption league..I was in a negotiation with an Egyptian official and was told that in order to get the deal done I would have to take a brand new Merc to his office...and take a taxi home.'
I spent most of my multinational career working in the Middle East & Africa and corruption is a normal way of life,in Nigeria it normally started at passport control in Lagos airport.
A friend of mine was an external examiner for at least one Nigerian University. He had some horrendous tales.
'What stigmatizes Muslims is the fact that some Muslims behave like such total arseholes allegedly on behalf of all Muslims and in the name of their religion that they drag others into their vilely warped view of life.
Much as the IRA did for Irishmen in the 1970's.
What will stop the stigma is when the arseholes stop being arseholes. And Tony Lloyd might more usefully use his gob to make this point. Or shut up, if he can't say anything sensible.
What was it that Trevor Phillips said this morning about liberal self-delusion?
Apologies for all the bad language but really......'
The biggest threat to our security are idiots like Lloyd and the rest of the PC cretins with their heads in the sand.
Mr. Taxman, my long-term prediction has been a 60/40 win for Remain.
I am surprised, though, that the polls have been neck-and-neck for so long. But then, they were that way for the General Election too.
I still think Remain will win. Fear is on the side of Remain more than Leave.
Edited extra bit: np, Mr. Estobar. I do try to limit how often I mention it, but your post did suggest you may like it.
I had similar expectations and am similarly surprised that the polling has remained so close. Somewhat to my surprise I now think this genuinely could go either way.
I'd like to place a small bet on Priti Patel for next Tory leader. No reason other than historical parallels. I'd appreciate a recommendation of the best and fairest online bookie with whom to lose small amounts of money every now and again.
So when you told me to "ffs shut up" yesterday does that mean you were on the wrong side of the argument?
No, it meant I'm sick of idiots playing the race card. I'm happy to argue with you about racism if you like.
Sooooo....if you call people names it means you're winning the argument. But not neccessarily vice versa......
My point yesterday was very simple.....some people wouldn't support Ukip if they were aligned with the BNP....would you still vote for them in that scenario?
Please answer without mentioning the Labour party or anti semitism as neither are remotely relevant. Thankyou
Why are you persisting with hypothetical, irrelevant arguments? I am a member of Ukip, I signed a form confirming I am not and have never been a member of BNP. For better or worse I have featured in most daily papers and live on radio, I have never been accused of racism.
I appreciate that isn't what you want to hear but if you find anything I have ever said or written that is even vaguely racist I'll make a donation to charity and apologise.
Now I have a question for you:
Are you a rapist? And if not can you prove it?
Is your last question for real - totally unacceptable
Nope, I'm sick and tired of people unreasonably playing the racist card, swap the c for a p and look at the response. I didn't accuse him of being a rapist
I appreciate that comprehension and reading skills aren't your forte....however...I am not accusing you of being racist. I have no reason to believe that to be the case.
If you actually read what I write it will become apparent to even you that this is so. I agreed with you yesterday that there was absolutely no hint of racism from any UKIP supporters on this site.
Whilst I'm delighted that you avoided mentioning Jews and Labour this time I ama a litle concerned about your progression to rape.
Perhaps you should turn your computer off, put a cool, damp flannel on your forehead and have a little nap.
BGNW..India and Egypt are well up there in the corruption league..I was in a negotiation with an Egyptian official and was told that in order to get the deal done I would have to take a brand new Merc to his office...and take a taxi home..
Received the Government booklet today. I was surprised at how big it is but maybe that is because it is fully bi-lingual. (I do not know how large the English booklet is). The content was simple and easy to understand and really very uncontroversial, indeed quite professional. As this booklet has now been sent UK wide it will be interesting to see if it has any effect
Finally on a different area of interest, why is the EU deemed to be bad by Leave but NATO good?
Because NATO isn't a nascent superstate making laws for us?
That is true, however the UK is signed up to all manner of things that diminishes UK sovereignty. There are somethings in life now that do not recognise borders such as the internet. I simply cannot get worked up about sovereignty in the way I could have done 20 years ago. Things have moved on and look unlikely to be picked apart in my view of the world. I also think that being in the EU, helps the UK punch above its weight internationally as without EU membership the UK would have slipped further down the power rankings much faster than it has done.
yep in the event of a Leave vote we will demand to wear a union jack helmet instead of a blue one on UN ops.
Tony Lloyd (Lab PCC) is doing his nut over this, rather than backing the plod. He said this is wrongly stigmatizing Muslims. Because the threat of suicide bombing in the Western World is well known to be equally distributed among different faiths.
Maybe they should have rotated training with saffron-robed Buddhists chanting "Ommmmmmmm"?
But what terrorists would Buddhists be.
Would they be a knife attacker, or a gunman, or a suicide bomber?
Or would they be one with everything?
Machetes, metal pipes, chains, and stones seem like they might be popular options.
An update on the current state of the US presidential race.
Last night after the Miami-Dade poll I said it was pointing to Trump being only just behind Hillary in Florida, and the Gallup favourables rating which also said that the GOP is quickly coalescing around Trump.
2 days ago I said that the state polling picture points to Trump getting a majority in the Electoral College (and thus elected President) even if he is behind Hillary by 4-5 points nationally.
Today we have the confirmation of my suspicions.
PPP national Hillary 47 Trump 41
NBC national Hillary 49 Trump 44
Quinnipiac Ohio Trump 43 Hillary 39
Florida Hillary 43 Trump 42
Pennsylvania Hillary 43 Trump 42
JMC Louisiana Trump 52 Hillary 36
PPP and JMC wrote this in their commentary:
"While it is true that Donald Trump narrowly carried the Louisiana primary (in which only registered Republicans could participate), Republicans have since then coalesced behind him, which is part of the reason he has a 52-36% lead over Hillary Clinton (4% would support a third party, while 8% are undecided)"
"PPP's new national poll finds that Republicans have quickly unified around Donald Trump, making the Presidential race more competitive than it has previously been perceived to be."
I think we will know how things are going in about 6 weeks, but the first picture emerging suggests that the Trump-Hillary race may have returned to the state prior to the GOP meltdown in March.
I'd like to place a small bet on Priti Patel for next Tory leader. No reason other than historical parallels. I'd appreciate a recommendation of the best and fairest online bookie with whom to lose small amounts of money every now and again.
Several online bookies have Pritti at 20/1. The biggest and most readily accessible offering this price either online or on the High Street is Ladbrokes.
An update on the current state of the US presidential race.
Last night after the Miami-Dade poll I said it was pointing to Trump being only just behind Hillary in Florida, and the Gallup favourables rating which also said that the GOP is quickly coalescing around Trump.
2 days ago I said that the state polling picture points to Trump getting a majority in the Electoral College (and thus elected President) even if he is behind Hillary by 4-5 points nationally.
Today we have the confirmation of my suspicions.
PPP national Hillary 47 Trump 41
NBC national Hillary 49 Trump 44
Quinnipiac Ohio Trump 43 Hillary 39
Florida Hillary 43 Trump 42
Pennsylvania Hillary 43 Trump 42
JMC Louisiana Trump 52 Hillary 36
PPP and JMC wrote this in their commentary:
"While it is true that Donald Trump narrowly carried the Louisiana primary (in which only registered Republicans could participate), Republicans have since then coalesced behind him, which is part of the reason he has a 52-36% lead over Hillary Clinton (4% would support a third party, while 8% are undecided)"
"PPP's new national poll finds that Republicans have quickly unified around Donald Trump, making the Presidential race more competitive than it has previously been perceived to be."
I think we will know how things are going in about 6 weeks, but the first picture emerging suggests that the Trump-Hillary race may have returned to the state prior to the GOP meltdown in March.
I'd like to place a small bet on Priti Patel for next Tory leader. No reason other than historical parallels. I'd appreciate a recommendation of the best and fairest online bookie with whom to lose small amounts of money every now and again.
She's 20/1 with Ladbrokes which I think is the best price.
The leave side amuse me in utilising the services of Iain Duncan Smith to try and appeal to Labour voters, what planet do the leave side live on? IDS is hated by most Labour supporters, especially those on benefits as his zealotry and intolerance of the less fortunate in society is amongst the most extreme of any Conservative party representative. People on benefits does not just include those on Jobseekers allowance but all sorts of different benefits that have been eroded, replaced by more stringent allowances or withdrawn. As a supporter of remain I can only thank IDS for his latest intervention!
There are Conservatives who see IDS as a sincere, competent and compassionate defender of the poor. Ie, the exact opposite of the way the public at large sees him.
Finally on a different area of interest, why is the EU deemed to be bad by Leave but NATO good?
Ignoring all your other fatuous idiocy. NATO does not impose new laws and new regulations upon us. It doesn't prevent us securing our own trade deals, controlling our own borders, setting our own VAT levels or running our own farming and fishing to suit ourselves. Nor does it require in excess of £15 billion a year to be a member.
It may be the reporter but there are some odd comments in that piece. The question really is whether the company was solvent or insolvent when Sir Philip sold it for £1. If it was insolvent then the next question is whether it had rights to seek recovery of funds from anyone else either by this guarantee or some group guarantee. If the answer to that is no what, if anything has been lost?
The dividends extracted by Sir Philip were over a decade ago and 6-8 years before there were concerns about the pension shortfall. Why are they relevant?
Pretty much every FSS is in deficit because of current bond rates. Most will have made proposals for this to be addressed over an extended period. These proposals are usually acceptable because, in reality, everyone knows these deficits will largely disappear when (if) bond rates rise. It may be, given this has already been going on for way longer than anyone expected that the PPF has been too lenient in this but would pushing BHS into insolvency earlier really have made things better?
It is possible that representations might have been made in respect of these proposals that were, well, optimistic, and it is likely that is where the PPF are exploring. But in reality, if the business was broke and monies were not being diverted out of it to other parts of Arcadia it is difficult to see what has been lost.
The PPF operate an assessment scheme by which everyone who has a FSS has to pay a levy to support those that go insolvent. The amount of the levy depends on your credit rating. It appears that the guarantee was used to improve the credit rating of the business and thus reduce the levy. When the guarantee stopped the levy would have increased.
I'd like to place a small bet on Priti Patel for next Tory leader. No reason other than historical parallels. I'd appreciate a recommendation of the best and fairest online bookie with whom to lose small amounts of money every now and again.
She's 20/1 with Ladbrokes which I think is the best price.
One of the people convicted yesterday in one of the FCA's biggest and most long-running insider dealing cases was a former advisor to Sir Philip Green.
BGNW..India and Egypt are well up there in the corruption league..I was in a negotiation with an Egyptian official and was told that in order to get the deal done I would have to take a brand new Merc to his office...and take a taxi home..
Interesting that Crossrail has no station near City Airport, despite passing very close by.
Is that because Crossrail has had funding from BAA? I know there's a bit of an argument going on over track acces charges BAA are proposing to charge Crossrail to use the spur line to Heathrow.
Hamilton being parachuted into Wales is unacceptable and to be leader of UKIP beggars belief
He was born in Wales. Bedwellty, Monmouthshire to be precise.
To be fair to Neil, he's as welsh as Tom Jones !
Hamilton was born in Fleur-de-Lis, a Monmouthshire pit village near Blackwood, Wales. His father was a chief engineer for the National Coal Board. His grandfathers were coal miners. Hamilton grew up in Ammanford in Carmarthenshire, West Wales. At the age of 15, in 1964, he joined the Conservative Party.
An update on the current state of the US presidential race.
Last night after the Miami-Dade poll I said it was pointing to Trump being only just behind Hillary in Florida, and the Gallup favourables rating which also said that the GOP is quickly coalescing around Trump.
2 days ago I said that the state polling picture points to Trump getting a majority in the Electoral College (and thus elected President) even if he is behind Hillary by 4-5 points nationally.
Today we have the confirmation of my suspicions.
As PPP point out the Democratic race is still 'live', once it finishes Sanders supporters will start coalescing around Hilary. Trump-Clinton undecideds go 41-8 for Sanders in a Sander-Trump match up.
Hamilton being parachuted into Wales is unacceptable and to be leader of UKIP beggars belief
He was born in Wales. Bedwellty, Monmouthshire to be precise.
To be fair to Neil, he's as welsh as Tom Jones !
Hamilton was born in Fleur-de-Lis, a Monmouthshire pit village near Blackwood, Wales. His father was a chief engineer for the National Coal Board. His grandfathers were coal miners. Hamilton grew up in Ammanford in Carmarthenshire, West Wales. At the age of 15, in 1964, he joined the Conservative Party.
On the same article's "infobox":
Born 9 March 1949 (age 67) Bedwellty, Monmouthshire, Wales
An update on the current state of the US presidential race.
Last night after the Miami-Dade poll I said it was pointing to Trump being only just behind Hillary in Florida, and the Gallup favourables rating which also said that the GOP is quickly coalescing around Trump.
2 days ago I said that the state polling picture points to Trump getting a majority in the Electoral College (and thus elected President) even if he is behind Hillary by 4-5 points nationally.
Today we have the confirmation of my suspicions.
...
I think we will know how things are going in about 6 weeks, but the first picture emerging suggests that the Trump-Hillary race may have returned to the state prior to the GOP meltdown in March.
You might be right about the latter observation, but historically it's usually been fool's gold to find paths to the White House that actually happen without having most votes as well. It's possible, but I believe it's only happened very rarely - candidates do unexpectedly well in state X, but stumble into losing supposedly secure state Y.
Interesting that Crossrail has no station near City Airport, despite passing very close by.
Is that because Crossrail has had funding from BAA? I know there's a bit of an argument going on over track acces charges BAA are proposing to charge Crossrail to use the spur line to Heathrow.
Here's another quirk: Heathrow is inside the GLA boundary, but you can't use an Oystercard (smartcard) on the Heathrow Express or Heathrow Connect west of Hayes (only on the London Underground).
Gatwick is well outside the GLA boundary, but you can use an Oystercard on all rail services including Gatwick Express, since early this year.
So when you told me to "ffs shut up" yesterday does that mean you were on the wrong side of the argument?
No, it meant I'm sick of idiots playing the race card. I'm happy to argue with you about racism if you like.
Sooooo....if you call people names it means you're winning the argument. But not neccessarily vice versa......
My point yesterday was very simple.....some people wouldn't support Ukip if they were aligned with the BNP....would you still vote for them in that scenario?
Please answer without mentioning the Labour party or anti semitism as neither are remotely relevant. Thankyou
Why are you persisting with hypothetical, irrelevant arguments? I am a member of Ukip, I signed a form confirming I am not and have never been a member of BNP. For better or worse I have featured in most daily papers and live on radio, I have never been accused of racism.
I appreciate that isn't what you want to hear but if you find anything I have ever said or written that is even vaguely racist I'll make a donation to charity and apologise.
Now I have a question for you:
Are you a rapist? And if not can you prove it?
Is your last question for real - totally unacceptable
Nope, I'm sick and tired of people unreasonably playing the racist card, swap the c for a p and look at the response. I didn't accuse him of being a rapist
I appreciate that comprehension and reading skills aren't your forte....however...I am not accusing you of being racist. I have no reason to believe that to be the case.
If you actually read what I write it will become apparent to even you that this is so. I agreed with you yesterday that there was absolutely no hint of racism from any UKIP supporters on this site.
Whilst I'm delighted that you avoided mentioning Jews and Labour this time I ama a litle concerned about your progression to rape.
Perhaps you should turn your computer off, put a cool, damp flannel on your forehead and have a little nap.
Best Wishes
I accused somebody of having their head up their own arse earlier and apologise profusely to Alastair Meeks, this bloke makes you look like Uriah Heap.
Mr. Rabbit, the problem is that it's a lot easier to think of good reasons why just about every candidate shouldn't win than why one should.
In unrelated news, Witcher 3 players may be interested in the Blood and Wine DLC, which comes out on 31 May. I'm going to wait and see if they have a GOTY edition (not a fan of DLC, but I do like The Witcher 3 enough to make an exception).
Hamilton being parachuted into Wales is unacceptable and to be leader of UKIP beggars belief
He was born in Wales. Bedwellty, Monmouthshire to be precise.
Makes no difference - he is using Wales for his own political ambitions.
No, that is Ed Miliband and Doncaster.
50% of constituencies and their MPs?
Well, quite ! Neil Hamilton is from Wales and his fathers and grandfathers were coal miners. I'm not sure how much more welsh you can get in all honesty.
An update on the current state of the US presidential race.
Last night after the Miami-Dade poll I said it was pointing to Trump being only just behind Hillary in Florida, and the Gallup favourables rating which also said that the GOP is quickly coalescing around Trump.
2 days ago I said that the state polling picture points to Trump getting a majority in the Electoral College (and thus elected President) even if he is behind Hillary by 4-5 points nationally.
Today we have the confirmation of my suspicions.
As PPP point out the Democratic race is still 'live', once it finishes Sanders supporters will start coalescing around Hilary. Trump-Clinton undecideds go 41-8 for Sanders in a Sander-Trump match up.
The question isn't whether Trump-Clinton undecideds prefer Sanders to Trump, but whether Sanders-Trump undecideds (and Sanders supporters) prefer Trump to Clinton.
PFP Tom the Song lived in the States where he made his money..had a great career..and no doubt paid his taxes.. to the Gov of the USA...why do you say he is a tax exile..
Interesting that Crossrail has no station near City Airport, despite passing very close by.
Custom House will no doubt be closely linked to the airport (as well as the ExCel centre)
There was an old station at Silvertown, but it's not being reused. When the Woolwich branch of the DLR opened in 2005, a station was built on that line at the airport, but there is no Crossrail interchange with the Woolwich branch, except at Woolwich itself (south of the River).
An update on the current state of the US presidential race.
Last night after the Miami-Dade poll I said it was pointing to Trump being only just behind Hillary in Florida, and the Gallup favourables rating which also said that the GOP is quickly coalescing around Trump.
2 days ago I said that the state polling picture points to Trump getting a majority in the Electoral College (and thus elected President) even if he is behind Hillary by 4-5 points nationally.
Today we have the confirmation of my suspicions.
As PPP point out the Democratic race is still 'live', once it finishes Sanders supporters will start coalescing around Hilary. Trump-Clinton undecideds go 41-8 for Sanders in a Sander-Trump match up.
The question isn't whether Trump-Clinton undecideds prefer Sanders to Trump, but whether Sanders-Trump undecideds (and Sanders supporters) prefer Trump to Clinton.
Ideologically the gap between Sanders and Clinton is quite large. He is all but mathematically out of the contest, his position alot weaker than Ted Cruz's when he suspended !
The sight of UKIP Wales civil war and Neil Hamilton being involved in skulduggery in the Welsh Assembly is beyond satire.
I'm starting to feel sorry for Farage. These smooth Tory euro-sceptic defectors have caused him nothing but trouble. Everyone loved Nigel before the likes of Carswell and Hamilton came along; now Nigel seems continuously under siege by these people, who waste no opportunity to undermine, plot and be mean. Nigel must be appreciating how John Major felt at the time of Maastricht.
@Jake_Wilde: Big finish from Ken Livingstone as he blames all the deaths during the Cold War, & the Cold War itself, on the West https://t.co/NLGjmQ6ZbM
Interesting that Crossrail has no station near City Airport, despite passing very close by.
Custom House will no doubt be closely linked to the airport (as well as the ExCel centre)
There was an old station at Silvertown, but it's not being reused. When the Woolwich branch of the DLR opened in 2005, a station was built on that line at the airport, but there is no Crossrail interchange with the Woolwich branch, except at Woolwich itself (south of the River).
It is not a great distance and having been to the ExCeL and Customs House they report flight times from LCA.
Finally on a different area of interest, why is the EU deemed to be bad by Leave but NATO good?
Ignoring all your other fatuous idiocy. NATO does not impose new laws and new regulations upon us. It doesn't prevent us securing our own trade deals, controlling our own borders, setting our own VAT levels or running our own farming and fishing to suit ourselves. Nor does it require in excess of £15 billion a year to be a member.
Sorry, I think it is you who does not live in the real world. Who owns all the farms and fishing boats? In a liberalised free trading economy it could be anyone from anywhere on the planet and it is the market that dictates who buys the produce! In terms of trade deals, why are you so arrogant to think that Britain with a market of 65 Million can strike anything better than a combined area of 500 million?
In terms of controlling borders if you really believe that the UK will ever get immigration controlled or even reverse it, then you are deluded. Afraid immigration post 1997 is something you will have to put up with and that great Brexit campaigner Boris Johnson thinks it should be a free for all in any case. The actual cost of the EU, you say is £15 Billion. How much of that does the UK get back in development grants and the like? It is the Net figure you should be interested in and then the difference between any trade deal post Brexit in comparison to the status quo.
I'm starting to feel sorry for Farage. These smooth Tory euro-sceptic defectors have caused him nothing but trouble. Everyone loved Nigel before the likes of Carswell and Hamilton came along; now Nigel seems continuously under siege by these people, who waste no opportunity to undermine, plot and be mean. Nigel must be appreciating how John Major felt at the time of Maastricht.
Alastair Meeks : "All this was lost because David Cameron decided to prioritise his own hobby horse. Right now it looks like a very serious mistake."
Do you mean in terms of him being largely responsible for losing the EU Referendum?
The more this seems more than only a remote possibility as we had imagined just a few short weeks ago, but now a distinct prospect, the more I'm expecting to see a leakage of Labour-supporting REMAINERS switching sides in an attempt to see off Cameron and thereby, in their eyes, significantly weakening the Tory Government, possibly to the extent of forcing an earlier than otherwise General Election. This factor could already be taking place to some extent, explaining why against the odds LEAVE continues to close the gap.
Interesting that Crossrail has no station near City Airport, despite passing very close by.
Custom House will no doubt be closely linked to the airport (as well as the ExCel centre)
There was an old station at Silvertown, but it's not being reused. When the Woolwich branch of the DLR opened in 2005, a station was built on that line at the airport, but there is no Crossrail interchange with the Woolwich branch, except at Woolwich itself (south of the River).
It is not a great distance and having been to the ExCeL and Customs House they report flight times from LCA.
Custom House is on the Beckton branch of DLR, running to the north of the airport.
I've tried, but I can't get very excited about the Prime Minister's supposed faux pas today. It's hardly news that Nigeria and Afghanistan are thought to be very corrupt. I'd be more concerned if the Prime Minister thought otherwise.
One of my more colourful investigations involved a complex set of transactions between various companies in various ever more implausible countries (implausible from the perspective of what people doing it claimed to be doing), ending up with a company incorporated in Afghanistan through which "advisory payments" to a European porcelain company were being channelled.
This went off the scale of my "Does this smell right?"-o-meter.
I learnt a lesson about responsibility and the importance of due process when an acquaintance of mine - someone who I respected - was send to federal prison.
He spent 5 minutes on the phone with the CFO of a US client - something about Nigerian barges. Standard discussion - we help you; you'll send more business our way over time. He was just doing his job - and then Stan threw him overboard.
But Stan always was a shit. And Dan was a nice man.
To those who are asking my surname is pronounced BUCKET (as in the vessel). As a working-class, ex-council house lady, I don't want to get ideas above my station. Unlike of course, Colonel Thornberry-Bouquet who definitely has ideas way above her station!!
I see Alan Johnson has finally surfaced today and immediately puts his foot in it, by alluding to everyone on the Leave side as 'extremists.'
You really couldn't make this up - so many reputations are being damaged beyond repair in my view. This referendum really needs to be over, it's getting embarrassing. Having said that, the better speeches are coming from the Leave side at the moment, I hope they are finally getting their act together.
Comments
Wonder what they would have done if Mr Farage had said the same thing . . .
The leave side amuse me in utilising the services of Iain Duncan Smith to try and appeal to Labour voters, what planet do the leave side live on? IDS is hated by most Labour supporters, especially those on benefits as his zealotry and intolerance of the less fortunate in society is amongst the most extreme of any Conservative party representative. People on benefits does not just include those on Jobseekers allowance but all sorts of different benefits that have been eroded, replaced by more stringent allowances or withdrawn. As a supporter of remain I can only thank IDS for his latest intervention!
The leave side seem to have the collective appeal of an unloved season, it surprises me the level of Leave support in the polls. I think this is wrong and Remain will win by 57% to 43% Leave in the end as people will opt for the status quo. I am also minded to remember that there was a substantial swing to the Remain campaign in the 1970s in the late stages. I think this will happen again due to the economic uncertainty of Leave.
Leave have not communicated a viable alternative to the Remain campaign. I simply do not think they understand economics. For instance they say the EU is not a growing market and so we should leave the EU to concentrate on the rest of the world.
Firstly, does this mean that we should simply allow the terms of trade to get even worse with the EU by leaving the EU? We sell significant volumes of services to the EU. Is Leaves position that giving up on these markets does not matter? As that is what they seem to be implying, it seems to be economic madness because something of a stagnant market is better than nothing at all!
Secondly, the myth that the UK can sell services to developing markets to compensate for loss of trade with the EU. It simply is beyond reason that undeveloped markets at this time will want the type of services the UK and particularly London specialises in and has a competitive advantage against alternative countries. Sure if the rest of the world was as developed as the European or Northern American market it would be fine but the rest of the world is not that developed and so it seems to be a question of Leave wanting to propagate a myth that the UK can thrive outside the EU without a fundamentally realistic proposition for an alternative.
Finally on a different area of interest, why is the EU deemed to be bad by Leave but NATO good?
'BGNW..India and Egypt are well up there in the corruption league..I was in a negotiation with an Egyptian official and was told that in order to get the deal done I would have to take a brand new Merc to his office...and take a taxi home.'
I spent most of my multinational career working in the Middle East & Africa and corruption is a normal way of life,in Nigeria it normally started at passport control in Lagos airport.
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Adventures-Edric-Hero-Hornska-Book-ebook/dp/B01DOSP9ZK
[Comedy-fantasy by me, with the emphasis on comedy. Rated 4.5* currently].
And since the Brexiteers are going to be upset at this post, I may as well include this
@RupertMyers: Brexiter: The EU does nothing for our security. It's all down to NATO & our allies.
NATO & our allies: don't leave the EU
Brexiter: hush now
I am surprised, though, that the polls have been neck-and-neck for so long. But then, they were that way for the General Election too.
I still think Remain will win. Fear is on the side of Remain more than Leave.
Edited extra bit: np, Mr. Estobar. I do try to limit how often I mention it, but your post did suggest you may like it.
This went off the scale of my "Does this smell right?"-o-meter.
@Jake_Wilde: Ken Livingstone says that the West having sanctions on Iran and not Israel led to antisemitic attacks https://t.co/3tlPttm1cW
'What stigmatizes Muslims is the fact that some Muslims behave like such total arseholes allegedly on behalf of all Muslims and in the name of their religion that they drag others into their vilely warped view of life.
Much as the IRA did for Irishmen in the 1970's.
What will stop the stigma is when the arseholes stop being arseholes. And Tony Lloyd might more usefully use his gob to make this point. Or shut up, if he can't say anything sensible.
What was it that Trevor Phillips said this morning about liberal self-delusion?
Apologies for all the bad language but really......'
The biggest threat to our security are idiots like Lloyd and the rest of the PC cretins with their heads in the sand.
@GuidoFawkes: UPDATE: Farage furious with Neil Hamilton https://t.co/IRzPLlkxgZ https://t.co/00DAhJvceu
http://www.hl.co.uk/news/2016/5/10/abused-a-typical-and-a-300-million-pension-blackhole-heres-what-we-learned-from-the-first-day-of-the-bhs-inquiry
Nope, I'm sick and tired of people unreasonably playing the racist card, swap the c for a p and look at the response. I didn't accuse him of being a rapist
I appreciate that comprehension and reading skills aren't your forte....however...I am not accusing you of being racist. I have no reason to believe that to be the case.
If you actually read what I write it will become apparent to even you that this is so. I agreed with you yesterday that there was absolutely no hint of racism from any UKIP supporters on this site.
Whilst I'm delighted that you avoided mentioning Jews and Labour this time I ama a litle concerned about your progression to rape.
Perhaps you should turn your computer off, put a cool, damp flannel on your forehead and have a little nap.
Best Wishes
https://twitter.com/RaheemKassam/status/730064444861100032
http://tinyurl.com/zvr45jr
two thirds of Germans think Merkel should quit.
http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/inland/mehrheit-der-deutschen-gegen-weitere-angela-merkel-amtszeit-14225181.html
Last night after the Miami-Dade poll I said it was pointing to Trump being only just behind Hillary in Florida, and the Gallup favourables rating which also said that the GOP is quickly coalescing around Trump.
2 days ago I said that the state polling picture points to Trump getting a majority in the Electoral College (and thus elected President) even if he is behind Hillary by 4-5 points nationally.
Today we have the confirmation of my suspicions.
PPP national
Hillary 47
Trump 41
NBC national
Hillary 49
Trump 44
Quinnipiac Ohio
Trump 43
Hillary 39
Florida
Hillary 43
Trump 42
Pennsylvania
Hillary 43
Trump 42
JMC Louisiana
Trump 52
Hillary 36
PPP and JMC wrote this in their commentary:
"While it is true that Donald Trump narrowly carried the Louisiana primary (in which only registered Republicans
could participate), Republicans have since then coalesced behind him, which is part of the reason he has a 52-36%
lead over Hillary Clinton (4% would support a third party, while 8% are undecided)"
"PPP's new national poll finds that Republicans have quickly unified around Donald Trump, making the Presidential race more competitive than it has previously been perceived to be."
I think we will know how things are going in about 6 weeks, but the first picture emerging suggests that the Trump-Hillary race may have returned to the state prior to the GOP meltdown in March.
Only sure winner: Democrats a few weeks ago
The dividends extracted by Sir Philip were over a decade ago and 6-8 years before there were concerns about the pension shortfall. Why are they relevant?
Pretty much every FSS is in deficit because of current bond rates. Most will have made proposals for this to be addressed over an extended period. These proposals are usually acceptable because, in reality, everyone knows these deficits will largely disappear when (if) bond rates rise. It may be, given this has already been going on for way longer than anyone expected that the PPF has been too lenient in this but would pushing BHS into insolvency earlier really have made things better?
It is possible that representations might have been made in respect of these proposals that were, well, optimistic, and it is likely that is where the PPF are exploring. But in reality, if the business was broke and monies were not being diverted out of it to other parts of Arcadia it is difficult to see what has been lost.
The PPF operate an assessment scheme by which everyone who has a FSS has to pay a levy to support those that go insolvent. The amount of the levy depends on your credit rating. It appears that the guarantee was used to improve the credit rating of the business and thus reduce the levy. When the guarantee stopped the levy would have increased.
Hamilton was born in Fleur-de-Lis, a Monmouthshire pit village near Blackwood, Wales. His father was a chief engineer for the National Coal Board. His grandfathers were coal miners. Hamilton grew up in Ammanford in Carmarthenshire, West Wales. At the age of 15, in 1964, he joined the Conservative Party.
Born 9 March 1949 (age 67)
Bedwellty, Monmouthshire, Wales
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neil_Hamilton_(politician)
Heathrow is inside the GLA boundary, but you can't use an Oystercard (smartcard) on the Heathrow Express or Heathrow Connect west of Hayes (only on the London Underground).
Gatwick is well outside the GLA boundary, but you can use an Oystercard on all rail services including Gatwick Express, since early this year.
I appreciate that comprehension and reading skills aren't your forte....however...I am not accusing you of being racist. I have no reason to believe that to be the case.
If you actually read what I write it will become apparent to even you that this is so. I agreed with you yesterday that there was absolutely no hint of racism from any UKIP supporters on this site.
Whilst I'm delighted that you avoided mentioning Jews and Labour this time I ama a litle concerned about your progression to rape.
Perhaps you should turn your computer off, put a cool, damp flannel on your forehead and have a little nap.
Best Wishes
I accused somebody of having their head up their own arse earlier and apologise profusely to Alastair Meeks, this bloke makes you look like Uriah Heap.
In unrelated news, Witcher 3 players may be interested in the Blood and Wine DLC, which comes out on 31 May. I'm going to wait and see if they have a GOTY edition (not a fan of DLC, but I do like The Witcher 3 enough to make an exception).
Has he made much progress? I asked
'Well he's come from barking to tooting''.
Tooting station is actually on Thameslink (a mainline route). The tube stations are actually Tooting Bec and Tooting Broadway.
[End ubergeekery]
I was going to post this
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9V0pumxenJo
but then I saw this
@bpolitics: Cruz Leaves Door Open to Restarting Campaign If He Wins Nebraska https://t.co/IhkbrBk9UU
In terms of controlling borders if you really believe that the UK will ever get immigration controlled or even reverse it, then you are deluded. Afraid immigration post 1997 is something you will have to put up with and that great Brexit campaigner Boris Johnson thinks it should be a free for all in any case. The actual cost of the EU, you say is £15 Billion. How much of that does the UK get back in development grants and the like? It is the Net figure you should be interested in and then the difference between any trade deal post Brexit in comparison to the status quo.
It's odd: when Cruz was in the race, Nebraska was all but won. The only reason Cruz would lose is by having officially ended his campaign.
Do you mean in terms of him being largely responsible for losing the EU Referendum?
The more this seems more than only a remote possibility as we had imagined just a few short weeks ago, but now a distinct prospect, the more I'm expecting to see a leakage of Labour-supporting REMAINERS switching sides in an attempt to see off Cameron and thereby, in their eyes, significantly weakening the Tory Government, possibly to the extent of forcing an earlier than otherwise General Election. This factor could already be taking place to some extent, explaining why against the odds LEAVE continues to close the gap.
He spent 5 minutes on the phone with the CFO of a US client - something about Nigerian barges. Standard discussion - we help you; you'll send more business our way over time. He was just doing his job - and then Stan threw him overboard.
But Stan always was a shit. And Dan was a nice man.
Councillor overload. Simon Hogg seems the type Labour would usually go for.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/10/one-man-dead-after-attacker-heard-shouting-allahu-akbar-knifes-m/
Unlike of course, Colonel Thornberry-Bouquet who definitely has ideas way above her station!!
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-05-10/online-polls-overstated-support-for-ukip-analyst-singh-says
You really couldn't make this up - so many reputations are being damaged beyond repair in my view. This referendum really needs to be over, it's getting embarrassing. Having said that, the better speeches are coming from the Leave side at the moment, I hope they are finally getting their act together.