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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Election verdict. Corbyn is staying but he must raise his g

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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,010
    I wish to make it clear to any beautiful blonde Slavic spies viewing this that I am also available to be 'turned'.
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    richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    ST So when is he USA gong to annex Canada and Mexico..there can only be a few thousand casualties..I think we should be told.
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,715

    I wish to make it clear to any beautiful blonde Slavic spies viewing this that I am also available to be 'turned'.

    Into @Cossack_Dancer?
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    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820

    I returned to the site for lunchtime reading and it is noticeable that some of the Male proREMAIN people are aggressive bordering on insulting in how they talk to proLEAVE people.

    Now maybe it is just the lack of female proREMAIN people on here, but the degree of inflammatory language used even tops the vitriolic outbursts that our resident polemicist SeanT sometimes launches into. We know that SeanT writes well and loves a tirade of words, but what is the excuse of several proREMAIN chaps on here for their language? Are they just trying to copy SeanT or have they a deeper problem?

    Emotional retards, brought up under the post Tony Blair education doctrine where nothing remotely risky was ever allowed to enter their sphere of influence and as such they are totally unequipped to deal with contrarian opinions rationally, resorting to emotional and animalistic defence mechanisms.

    You see it all the time in the young these days.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,659
    JohnO said:

    OK, say Remain win by 53-47, which is clear but appreciably smaller than in Scotland? What happens then? No one is asking the Leavers to somehow recant or disavow their beliefs. But surely it is reasonable, the British people having spoken, that the question of withdrawal should not be revisited for a reasonably long period - I don't know, perhaps 10 years or so?

    I'd probably agree with that John, with the caveat that would depend on whether there was a major change in the EU during that time and/or our national interest changed again.

    I would probably say the EU is on probation re: the UK, let's see how this deal pans out and be guided by their actions and public opinion accordingly.
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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited May 2016

    I wish to make it clear to any beautiful 'female' blonde Slavic spies viewing this that I am also available to be 'turned'.

    corrected it for you.. :lol:

    [edit] @Cossack_Dancer? - arf
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Actual Proper Analysis Of Scottish Results Alert

    Whilst people are wanking themselves silly over non-existent SNP-to-Con Switchers or how doomed the SNP are in seats where their vote went up I thought I'd look at turnout-to-vote relationship, especially with the SNP sweeping the notoriously low turnout Glasgow seats

    https://twitter.com/twitonatrain/status/729997538372259840

    Despite what I was expecting no real link between turnout and Tory vote share

    https://twitter.com/twitonatrain/status/729998826728214528
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    Alistair said:

    Actual Proper Analysis Of Scottish Results Alert

    Whilst people are wanking themselves silly over non-existent SNP-to-Con Switchers or how doomed the SNP are in seats where their vote went up I thought I'd look at turnout-to-vote relationship, especially with the SNP sweeping the notoriously low turnout Glasgow seats

    https://twitter.com/twitonatrain/status/729997538372259840

    Despite what I was expecting no real link between turnout and Tory vote share

    https://twitter.com/twitonatrain/status/729998826728214528

    What is the R squared on both of those ?
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    MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    SeanT said:

    Pulpstar said:


    I've also compared Remain to the IRA, David Cameron to William Joyce but people ignore that.

    I've been consistent, I said I would vote for what I considered was in the best economic interests of the UK.

    What Leave propose isn't in the best interests of the economy.

    Sad but true.

    Why is Dave playing such a ridiculous "war in Europe" card then ?
    49% of people think Dave's WAR!!!! threat is a "ridiculous piece of scare-mongering". Another 25% dismiss his threat.

    Three quarters of the country. Well done Dave, another winner.

    https://twitter.com/montie/status/729992189556740096
    The 5% were either being sarcastic or are mentally incompetent.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,659
    JohnO said:

    SeanT said:

    JohnO said:

    SeanT said:

    JohnO said:

    @Luckyguy1983 You're quite happy aggressively to attack a poster who goes under his own name and is readily identifiable, but not altogether comfortable revealing contact info to everyone on a public forum.

    I suggest you ponder your epic hypocrisy for a little while then crawl back under your stone again.

    Like many posters here, I 'aggressively' attack arguments and posts I find ridiculous, as do you. That's exactly what I did upthread. Like most other posters here, I post under a moniker and and my full contact details aren't up here. That doesn't make me 'under a rock'. Since you clearly aren't interested in whether I'm a paid troll or similar, it is quite simply a very nasty smear.
    I am absolutely certain that you are not being paid by anyone, and the views you expound are entirely your own. But it is incontestable that they are blindly and unpleasantly Putinite with an inexplicable sympathy for aggressive authoritarians.
    Whose foreign policy has killed more innocent people in the last 15 years, America's, or Russia's?

    I submit it is America, by an order of magnitude. And Putin doesn't drone so many weddings, either.
    I always thought your first love in the authoritarian stakes was China.
    I don't like either regime. I'm just pointing out the ludicrous hypocrisy of western moralising vis a vis Putin.

    To a neutral, looking at the death tolls, and the relative aggression, it must be very hard to see who is the bad guy.

    Indeed I'm not sure there is a bad guy. Putin acts like the leader of a great power, with ruthless self interest, involving violence if necessary. The US president does exactly the same, only with greater violence, judging by the Iraq war, and its horrible sequellae.
    Taking everything into account, notably the nature of their governance, adherence to personal rights and freedoms etc, you don't regard Putin as a moral equivalen to Bush or Obama. I'm taking that as a given.
    I hate hate hate Putin and his actions in Crimea, Georgia and Ukraine fill me with utter disgust. If the Baltic states weren't part of NATO and, yes, probably the EU too he'd have taken a bite out of them too.

    No-one is more hawkish on Putin's Russia than me. I'd have substantial troops in Poland and NATO bases in the Baltic states.

    Where the West went wrong is in its laughable enjoyment of Russia's poor state in the 1990s just as it finally seemed possible some sort of liberal democracy might actuallly take root there.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,631
    New poll from Germany:

    CDU - 30.5
    SPD - 19.5
    AfD - 15
    Green - 13
    Left - 10
    FDP - 8

    A combined score of 50 between the two main parties may not be enough to form a majority grand coalition, it may need to be a grander coalition and call in either the FDP or the Greens. I expect the FDP may want a period in opposition to rebuild and the CDU wouldn't want to work with the Greens at all.
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    TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited May 2016
    JohnO said:

    MaxPB said:

    JohnO said:

    OK, say Remain win by 53-47, which is clear but appreciably smaller than in Scotland? What happens then? No one is asking the Leavers to somehow recant or disavow their beliefs. But surely it is reasonable, the British people having spoken, that the question of withdrawal should not be revisited for a reasonably long period - I don't know, perhaps 10 years or so?

    It really depends on whether the EU respects the deal, if two months after our vote the EUParl tables an EU Army from which we will have no opt-out and the ECJ rules in favour of it when we challenge it based on the the words "ever closer union of the European people" in the Treaty of Rome then I expect there to be a lot of talk of a second referendum.
    I would agree in principle but wouldn't the existing referendum lock be invoked in any event?
    Is the creation of an EU army from which we could not derogate a plausible scenario?
    Let us look at a real live example of Cameron's approach to the EC.
    It once was the policy of Cameron to get back the social powers that the EC were given by Labour. Now that red line has gone... Cameron never explained why he dropped it. Are there really any red lines that a person like Cameron at the top of the party would not just accept if adopted by the previous Labour government? What are the principles of a man such as Cameron in these things? Is it just another acceptance of where we are and let us not substantially change it?
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    Actual Proper Analysis Of Scottish Results Alert

    Whilst people are wanking themselves silly over non-existent SNP-to-Con Switchers or how doomed the SNP are in seats where their vote went up I thought I'd look at turnout-to-vote relationship, especially with the SNP sweeping the notoriously low turnout Glasgow seats

    https://twitter.com/twitonatrain/status/729997538372259840

    Despite what I was expecting no real link between turnout and Tory vote share

    https://twitter.com/twitonatrain/status/729998826728214528

    What is the R squared on both of those ?
    0.38 on the SNP Chart, 0.14 on the Tory chart
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,146
    edited May 2016
    weejonnie said:


    Nato was founded in 1949. The EU was founded in 1993 - we have had 23 years with the EU and 67 with NATO - nearly 3 times as long.

    NATO was explicitly set up as an anti-Soviet/Russian alliance. I would submit that over the very long term needing to have an alliance is not a desirable goal. NATO will need serious reform at some point, and it's arguably more pressing that the need to reform the EU.
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    SeanT said:

    And they say LEAVERS are nuts.

    Alistair Meeks thinks there are people in the Kremlin feverishly working out how to buy the opinions of below the line commenters on politicalbetting.com

    I picture LuckyGuy waiting patiently by Whitechapel Tube for his daily "drop" from a man in an astrakhan coat. Or maybe he was seduced by one of those beautiful Slavic blonde spies, who *turned* him, at the Holiday Inn near Dagenham?

    I'm still hoping to be recruited by Mossad.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    SeanT said:

    Pulpstar said:


    I've also compared Remain to the IRA, David Cameron to William Joyce but people ignore that.

    I've been consistent, I said I would vote for what I considered was in the best economic interests of the UK.

    What Leave propose isn't in the best interests of the economy.

    Sad but true.

    Why is Dave playing such a ridiculous "war in Europe" card then ?
    49% of people think Dave's WAR!!!! threat is a "ridiculous piece of scare-mongering". Another 25% dismiss his threat.

    Three quarters of the country. Well done Dave, another winner.

    https://twitter.com/montie/status/729992189556740096
    The 5% were either being sarcastic or are mentally incompetent.
    There's a baseline of noise to any survey. 3-5% is roughly the figure you get answering "No" to the question "Would you save a drowning child if there was no risk to yourself to do so?"
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,422

    I wish to make it clear to any beautiful 'female' blonde Slavic spies viewing this that I am also available to be 'turned'.

    corrected it for you.. :lol:

    [edit] @Cossack_Dancer? - arf
    Why is "'female'" in quotes?

    p.s. Why does it matter?
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,422

    ST So when is [t]he USA gong to annex Canada and Mexico..there can only be a few thousand casualties..I think we should be told.

    1812 and 1848, IIRC.

    More recently, the US has been keener on launching unprovoked attacks in the Middle East.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    I've updated the spread sheet ( https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1eArmDpMR_p5op62r6nW_mf7OgoXybDHmgQCiywbp4hs/edit?usp=sharing )

    It now has Turnout and Region on it.
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    JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,215

    SeanT said:

    And they say LEAVERS are nuts.

    Alistair Meeks thinks there are people in the Kremlin feverishly working out how to buy the opinions of below the line commenters on politicalbetting.com

    I picture LuckyGuy waiting patiently by Whitechapel Tube for his daily "drop" from a man in an astrakhan coat. Or maybe he was seduced by one of those beautiful Slavic blonde spies, who *turned* him, at the Holiday Inn near Dagenham?

    I'm still hoping to be recruited by Mossad.
    Too late. You think that Maine Coon is with you for love?
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,151

    It once was the policy of Cameron to get back the social powers that the EC were given by Labour. Now that red line has gone... Cameron never explained why he dropped it.

    This is the first, and so far the only, real-world-impactful political achievement of Jeremy Corbyn. Opting out from the social chapter again was pretty much the only thing Cameron wanted that other member states would have been able to give him. But at the time Corbyn made it sound like he might not support "remain" wholeheartedly or even at all, which is a risk Cameron couldn't afford to take.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,590

    NEW THREAD NEW THREAD

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    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    edited May 2016
    William Hill ‏@sharpeangle 12s12 seconds ago

    Tooting by-election: 1/10 Labour; 11/2 Tories. Lab to increase %age-of-votes cast majority? 1/6 yes; 7/2 no. #LabourParty
    8-O
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,019

    Mr. Pong, disagree. If Boris wins it's bad for Cameron.

    That said, Boris has been poor at debates in the past, and none of Corbyn's during the Labour leadership election harmed his prospects.

    Mr. Eagles, Augustus ended civil wars. Cameron's restarting them.

    He might just end the three decade Tory civil war over the EU.
    Over half the backbenches support Brexit, almost two thirds of activists and over half of all Tory voters.

    This is delusional.

    What you're really saying is that you hope eurosceptics go away if there's a Remain win, no matter by what margin.
    It's reasonable to assume that the referendum will settle the matter, either way. People will accept the result; that doesn't mean changing their views, but it does mean not fighting over the issue.

    I suppose if it's a very close result, that might be less true, but I don't think there's going to be any appetite for a rerun of this. People are fed up with it already, and there's another 40+ days to go of claim and counter-claim.
    If it is a close Remain result then it will definitely not settle the matter. All the more so as it becomes clear just how meaningless Cameron's claimed safeguards actually are.

    Of course one respects the will of the people. We will still be in the EU. That certainly doesn't mean stopping fighting for what you believe in, any more than a General Election means the party that loses should stop fighting.


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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    As predicted

    @JamieRoss7: Cabinet fans: there's some chat in Holyrood that John Swinney may be moved from finance to education for this term.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,369
    Roger said:

    JohnO said:


    Denis Healey?? He was on Labour's right wing by the early 1950s and a pronounced anti-commie.

    After university he started out as a communist and then went the way of many well known socialists. Did you ever hear about Tony Blair's political journey......

    (PS If losing your council seat means you'll be posting more Hersham's loss is going to be PB's gain)
    Healey in his Boris-style affable way defused it by saying "When I was young I used to believe in Santa Claus too".

    Agreeed about JohnO being our gain!
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,787
    Scott_P said:

    As predicted

    @JamieRoss7: Cabinet fans: there's some chat in Holyrood that John Swinney may be moved from finance to education for this term.

    So he can follow Tory policy in Education too?
This discussion has been closed.