To put the SCON results into historical perspective they have won 7 constituencies against a nine year old Scottish government with SLAB disintegrating and SLD on life support.
In 1987 SCON won 10 constituencies, this was deemed a political disaster.
Shock horror, 1987 and 2016 aren't the same. The position of the SNP for starters.
The SNP have been the Scottish government for the last nine years. Political parties tend to be losing support fast at that point.
Scotland is not normal, especially since the indyref was only a couple of years ago which totally polarised things to the benefit of the SNP.
It also polarised things to the benefit of SCON as SLAB has disintegrated.
So SCON should be a safe home for anti-independence and anti-government votes.
Yet when it comes down to it the inconvenient fact remains:
1987 SCON wins 10 constituencies and is said to have disasterous defeat 2016 SCON wins 7 constituencies and is said to have amazing victory
Remind me what happened before the 1987 election. Then remind me what happened before the 2016 election. It's as if you are ignoring the nadir of the Scottish Tory party on purpose.
Its as if you ignoring inconvenient election results.
@journodave: 'Scotland's more left wing. Scotland wants to be like Scandinavia. Scots don't mind paying more tax' is that right, aye? #SP16
Denmark and Finland have centre right governments, Sweden a populist rightwing party on rise, Scotland still has a centre left party as its largest just a centre right party now the main opposition
Scott is not too bright. You are a bit wrong there as well, it is a centre right party in power and a right wing junta now the main opposition
Interesting spin lines from CCHQ, I've seen quite a few Tory MPs, including cabinet ministers going for this line
@DavidGauke: Labour's collapse in Scotland means that, whoever leads them, they can only govern the UK in future with the help of the SNP.
Exactly what I'd be saying.
The Tories can forge a massive political conflict with the SNP, make it look more and more like Nationalist Scotland versus the Rest of the UK, and then before each election point north and say to the English, would you like that lot and Corbyn combining to govern you??
On the "battleground areas" test, what's the position (I'm not disagreeing with you, I genuinely don't know)? Are we seeing Labour improving the position in England generally, but only where it doesn't matter? And is there any reasonable basis for concluding that the actual candidates who Corbyn beat in 2015 would have outperformed in any of the key tests?
On that point, no - Labour did quite well in battleground English councils, such as Crawley, and OK in Wales. We'll have to see about London, of course. There are big strategic problems in Scotland and the Tories are successfully taking the "hammer of nationalism" banner, so Labour needs to decide its USP there.
FPT: The swing to Labour in Sheffield Brightside with both Tories and UKIP down is striking. I don't know the area at all, but it seems to include Hillsborough, where the football disaster happened on which the report recently vindicated campaigners like Andy Burnham. Might that be relevant?
To put the SCON results into historical perspective they have won 7 constituencies against a nine year old Scottish government with SLAB disintegrating and SLD on life support.
In 1987 SCON won 10 constituencies, this was deemed a political disaster.
Shock horror, 1987 and 2016 aren't the same. The position of the SNP for starters.
The SNP have been the Scottish government for the last nine years. Political parties tend to be losing support fast at that point.
Scotland is not normal, especially since the indyref was only a couple of years ago which totally polarised things to the benefit of the SNP.
It also polarised things to the benefit of SCON as SLAB has disintegrated.
So SCON should be a safe home for anti-independence and anti-government votes.
Yet when it comes down to it the inconvenient fact remains:
1987 SCON wins 10 constituencies and is said to have disasterous defeat 2016 SCON wins 7 constituencies and is said to have amazing victory
1987 meant a loss of 12 seats. it was the year that a slow gradual decline accelerated into free fall. Ten years later, the Conservatives had no seats at all. This year has seen a significant improvement in both seats and vote share.
I don't think the Conservatives can ever be more than the second party in Scotland, but if they could win the three Borders seats, two or three in the North East, Eastwood, and a couple in Edinburgh, they'd have a comfortable lead in the Commons.
To put the SCON results into historical perspective they have won 7 constituencies against a nine year old Scottish government with SLAB disintegrating and SLD on life support.
In 1987 SCON won 10 constituencies, this was deemed a political disaster.
Shock horror, 1987 and 2016 aren't the same. The position of the SNP for starters.
The SNP have been the Scottish government for the last nine years. Political parties tend to be losing support fast at that point.
Scotland is not normal, especially since the indyref was only a couple of years ago which totally polarised things to the benefit of the SNP.
It also polarised things to the benefit of SCON as SLAB has disintegrated.
So SCON should be a safe home for anti-independence and anti-government votes.
Yet when it comes down to it the inconvenient fact remains:
1987 SCON wins 10 constituencies and is said to have disasterous defeat 2016 SCON wins 7 constituencies and is said to have amazing victory
Remind me what happened before the 1987 election. Then remind me what happened before the 2016 election. It's as if you are ignoring the nadir of the Scottish Tory party on purpose.
Its as if you ignoring inconvenient election results.
Please do your own reminding its only going to deepen the hole you're digging.
And you are obviously ignoring the situation in which those elections were fought. SCON won 21 constituencies in the election before 87. How many did they win in the election before 2016?
Two completely irrelevant things: The Haunting of Lake Manor Hotel's up to #2 on US Amazon [horror anthology category]. Be cracking if it reached #1 [as happened with the UK site].
What are those smoky, bubbly, piped drinking thingummyjigs they have in the Middle East called? I'm possibly writing a fantasy short with a Persian feel and *might* include them (depends on whether they fit technologically).
Can something be done about the overuse of the "Quote" function on PB? When multiple series of comments build "Quote" mountains, PB becomes almost unreadable. Blocks of dark towering pyramids, each overshadowing the last, obscure the few bright spots of illumination.
You can change this behaviour in your vanilla settings:
I know you've been legendarily open-minded about his Jezness throughout his tenure, but if you don't mind me saying, your London success requirement seems quite a carefully crafted test. From what I can see so far we have the following
- very poor Labour performance in Scotland (but due to quite specific factors as SeanT has commented and in line with Miliband's performance there) - moderately poor Labour and slightly worse Conservative performance in Wales: doesn't look too bad for GE equivalent unless Plaid make a massive breakthrough - better than forecast Labour performance in English locals, looking at share of vote, which is the only realistic comparator - likely substantial success for Labour in London, though maybe not stellar (hence, I assume, your requirement for "big GLA gains" for it to be called a success
On the "battleground areas" test, what's the position (I'm not disagreeing with you, I genuinely don't know)? Are we seeing Labour improving the position in England generally, but only where it doesn't matter? And is there any reasonable basis for concluding that the actual candidates who Corbyn beat in 2015 would have outperformed in any of the key tests?
Labour should make gains in London anyway given London was a rarevLabour success story in 2015. So if Corbyn is a net positive Labour should do even better.
Corbyn identified Scotland as a priority when he was elected. Labour has gone backwards, just as it has in Wales.
In England, Labour has performed OK where it was previously doing OK. There is no evidence of any progress at all in places where the party needs to advance. And Labour is up against a Tory party that is currently engaged in civil war. Would Labour be losing tens of thousands of Jewish votes had another candidate won? I doubt it, but clearly can't be certain.
The prognosis is clear and unavoidable: Labour underbthe leadership of the hard left is heading towards a big defeat in 2020 despite being up against an unpopular, hoprlessly divided Tory government.
To put the SCON results into historical perspective they have won 7 constituencies against a nine year old Scottish government with SLAB disintegrating and SLD on life support.
In 1987 SCON won 10 constituencies, this was deemed a political disaster.
Shock horror, 1987 and 2016 aren't the same. The position of the SNP for starters.
The SNP have been the Scottish government for the last nine years. Political parties tend to be losing support fast at that point.
Scotland is not normal, especially since the indyref was only a couple of years ago which totally polarised things to the benefit of the SNP.
It also polarised things to the benefit of SCON as SLAB has disintegrated.
So SCON should be a safe home for anti-independence and anti-government votes.
Yet when it comes down to it the inconvenient fact remains:
1987 SCON wins 10 constituencies and is said to have disasterous defeat 2016 SCON wins 7 constituencies and is said to have amazing victory
1987 meant a loss of 12 seats. it was the year that a slow gradual decline accelerated into free fall. Ten years later, the Conservatives had no seats at all. This year has seen a significant improvement in both seats and vote share.
I don't think the Conservatives can ever be more than the second party in Scotland, but if they could win the three Borders seats, two or three in the North East, Eastwood, and a couple in Edinburgh, they'd have a comfortable lead in the Commons.
They should really be able to win 8-10 FPTP Westminster seats. But the key to expanding is to win back the support they have lost in Scotland's rural areas over the last 30 years.
To put the SCON results into historical perspective they have won 7 constituencies against a nine year old Scottish government with SLAB disintegrating and SLD on life support.
In 1987 SCON won 10 constituencies, this was deemed a political disaster.
Shock horror, 1987 and 2016 aren't the same. The position of the SNP for starters.
The SNP have been the Scottish government for the last nine years. Political parties tend to be losing support fast at that point.
Scotland is not normal, especially since the indyref was only a couple of years ago which totally polarised things to the benefit of the SNP.
It also polarised things to the benefit of SCON as SLAB has disintegrated.
So SCON should be a safe home for anti-independence and anti-government votes.
Yet when it comes down to it the inconvenient fact remains:
1987 SCON wins 10 constituencies and is said to have disasterous defeat 2016 SCON wins 7 constituencies and is said to have amazing victory
The polarisation may go further yet if the SNP now get into bed with the Greens. If I were the SNP I would avoid that option like the plague - it could see even more of their softer support peeling off in places like the NE - where, I note, there were some big double-digit SNP to Tory swings even in seats the SNP held.
Indeed.
A better idea for the SNP would be to accept the occasional defeat they can then claim that SLAB, SCON etc are 'all the same'.
Roger Scully @roger_scully 7m7 minutes ago Unless something very unexpected in the final two regions, looking very much: Lab 28, PC 12, Con 11, UKIP 8, LDs 1.
Welsh polls were pretty spot on.
Were they? My recollection is that the election day YouGov showed Labour doing much worse?
IIRC, the last Yougov poll had Labour on 33% for the constituencies, as opposed to the outcome of 34.7% , so not much difference.
Two completely irrelevant things: The Haunting of Lake Manor Hotel's up to #2 on US Amazon [horror anthology category]. Be cracking if it reached #1 [as happened with the UK site].
What are those smoky, bubbly, piped drinking thingummyjigs they have in the Middle East called? I'm possibly writing a fantasy short with a Persian feel and *might* include them (depends on whether they fit technologically).
Completely off topic, but I went to see RSC's Midsummer Nights Dream last night. Brilliant. Puck was played by newcomer Lucy Ellinson - absolutely stunning performance. One to watch.
To put the SCON results into historical perspective they have won 7 constituencies against a nine year old Scottish government with SLAB disintegrating and SLD on life support.
In 1987 SCON won 10 constituencies, this was deemed a political disaster.
Shock horror, 1987 and 2016 aren't the same. The position of the SNP for starters.
The SNP have been the Scottish government for the last nine years. Political parties tend to be losing support fast at that point.
Scotland is not normal, especially since the indyref was only a couple of years ago which totally polarised things to the benefit of the SNP.
It also polarised things to the benefit of SCON as SLAB has disintegrated.
So SCON should be a safe home for anti-independence and anti-government votes.
Yet when it comes down to it the inconvenient fact remains:
1987 SCON wins 10 constituencies and is said to have disasterous defeat 2016 SCON wins 7 constituencies and is said to have amazing victory
1987 meant a loss of 12 seats. it was the year that a slow gradual decline accelerated into free fall. Ten years later, the Conservatives had no seats at all. This year has seen a significant improvement in both seats and vote share.
I don't think the Conservatives can ever be more than the second party in Scotland, but if they could win the three Borders seats, two or three in the North East, Eastwood, and a couple in Edinburgh, they'd have a comfortable lead in the Commons.
Apparently we're supposed to think that because the Tories have done better in the very distant past (sorry people who remember 1987), it's not reasonable to call a significant recovery 30 bloody years later amazing. I guess it's the same logic as all those who said even though Cameron was PM he hadn't won because he didn't have an overall majority. No doubt if the LDs ever recover to 30 seats or so (which based off this set of results is going to be a long time, off ever), it won't count as good because they've been higher than that.
Two completely irrelevant things: The Haunting of Lake Manor Hotel's up to #2 on US Amazon [horror anthology category]. Be cracking if it reached #1 [as happened with the UK site].
What are those smoky, bubbly, piped drinking thingummyjigs they have in the Middle East called? I'm possibly writing a fantasy short with a Persian feel and *might* include them (depends on whether they fit technologically).
Looks like we're shaping up for a "Super Thursday" that everyone can claim some comfort from.
As a Tory voter, bit early to say with barely half of English council results in and what looks like a bit of a disappointment in Wales, but I'm really pleased for Ruth Davidson and the Scottish Tories, that's a stunning result for them, making "proper" gains of actual constituency seats and Ruth Davidson herself pulling off what must be a wholly unexpected personal triumph in Edinburgh Central. I am sure she will be a very effective Official Opposition leader in Scotland and endear herself further.
Is she the New Boris - a leading Tory who outperforms the party and has personal charisma and appeal? With Boris's star on the wane after his Euro mess-ups, and with nobody else in the Cabinet having anything remotely close to the voter appeal of Cameron, I can't help feeling she is the obvious, yet of course totally inconceivable, replacement for Dave.
Two completely irrelevant things: The Haunting of Lake Manor Hotel's up to #2 on US Amazon [horror anthology category]. Be cracking if it reached #1 [as happened with the UK site].
What are those smoky, bubbly, piped drinking thingummyjigs they have in the Middle East called? I'm possibly writing a fantasy short with a Persian feel and *might* include them (depends on whether they fit technologically).
To put the SCON results into historical perspective they have won 7 constituencies against a nine year old Scottish government with SLAB disintegrating and SLD on life support.
In 1987 SCON won 10 constituencies, this was deemed a political disaster.
Shock horror, 1987 and 2016 aren't the same. The position of the SNP for starters.
The SNP have been the Scottish government for the last nine years. Political parties tend to be losing support fast at that point.
Scotland is not normal, especially since the indyref was only a couple of years ago which totally polarised things to the benefit of the SNP.
It also polarised things to the benefit of SCON as SLAB has disintegrated.
So SCON should be a safe home for anti-independence and anti-government votes.
Yet when it comes down to it the inconvenient fact remains:
1987 SCON wins 10 constituencies and is said to have disasterous defeat 2016 SCON wins 7 constituencies and is said to have amazing victory
1987 meant a loss of 12 seats. it was the year that a slow gradual decline accelerated into free fall. Ten years later, the Conservatives had no seats at all. This year has seen a significant improvement in both seats and vote share.
I don't think the Conservatives can ever be more than the second party in Scotland, but if they could win the three Borders seats, two or three in the North East, Eastwood, and a couple in Edinburgh, they'd have a comfortable lead in the Commons.
Agreed.
But it should be harder for SCON at the next Westminster elections as they will be defending the record of a ten year Conservative Westminster government not attacking the record of a nine year SNP Holyrood government.
On the "battleground areas" test, what's the position (I'm not disagreeing with you, I genuinely don't know)? Are we seeing Labour improving the position in England generally, but only where it doesn't matter? And is there any reasonable basis for concluding that the actual candidates who Corbyn beat in 2015 would have outperformed in any of the key tests?
On that point, no - Labour did quite well in battleground English councils, such as Crawley, and OK in Wales. We'll have to see about London, of course. There are big strategic problems in Scotland and the Tories are successfully taking the "hammer of nationalism" banner, so Labour needs to decide its USP there.
FPT: The swing to Labour in Sheffield Brightside with both Tories and UKIP down is striking. I don't know the area at all, but it seems to include Hillsborough, where the football disaster happened on which the report recently vindicated campaigners like Andy Burnham. Might that be relevant?
Well, 66.8% of the electorate were inspired not to turnout in the Sheffield Brightside by-election. Was there some football on the Tele last night?
To put the SCON results into historical perspective they have won 7 constituencies against a nine year old Scottish government with SLAB disintegrating and SLD on life support.
In 1987 SCON won 10 constituencies, this was deemed a political disaster.
Shock horror, 1987 and 2016 aren't the same. The position of the SNP for starters.
The SNP have been the Scottish government for the last nine years. Political parties tend to be losing support fast at that point.
Scotland is not normal, especially since the indyref was only a couple of years ago which totally polarised things to the benefit of the SNP.
It also polarised things to the benefit of SCON as SLAB has disintegrated.
So SCON should be a safe home for anti-independence and anti-government votes.
Yet when it comes down to it the inconvenient fact remains:
1987 SCON wins 10 constituencies and is said to have disasterous defeat 2016 SCON wins 7 constituencies and is said to have amazing victory
Remind me what happened before the 1987 election. Then remind me what happened before the 2016 election. It's as if you are ignoring the nadir of the Scottish Tory party on purpose.
Its as if you ignoring inconvenient election results.
Please do your own reminding its only going to deepen the hole you're digging.
And you are obviously ignoring the situation in which those elections were fought. SCON won 21 constituencies in the election before 87. How many did they win in the election before 2016?
And you are obviously ignoring the situation in which those elections were fought. SCON were defending the record of a two term Conservative Westminster government in 1987 but attacking the record of a two term SNP Holyrood government in 2016.
With SLAB disintegrating and SLD on life support the circumstances were near optimum for SCON to do well.
Labour have managed to be tremendously efficient in Wales this time round. The 7.4 % vote reduction is not a million miles off the 9.2 reduction in Scotland but it has only cost them 2 seats in Wales.
On the "battleground areas" test, what's the position (I'm not disagreeing with you, I genuinely don't know)? Are we seeing Labour improving the position in England generally, but only where it doesn't matter? And is there any reasonable basis for concluding that the actual candidates who Corbyn beat in 2015 would have outperformed in any of the key tests?
On that point, no - Labour did quite well in battleground English councils, such as Crawley, and OK in Wales. We'll have to see about London, of course. There are big strategic problems in Scotland and the Tories are successfully taking the "hammer of nationalism" banner, so Labour needs to decide its USP there.
FPT: The swing to Labour in Sheffield Brightside with both Tories and UKIP down is striking. I don't know the area at all, but it seems to include Hillsborough, where the football disaster happened on which the report recently vindicated campaigners like Andy Burnham. Might that be relevant?
Labour has lost vote share and its majority in Wales. That is not OK.
Nick, you've made your peace with the hard left, so good for you. But let's not pretend you've done anything other than give up on the people Labour is supposed to be in the business of helping to a better life.
To put the SCON results into historical perspective they have won 7 constituencies against a nine year old Scottish government with SLAB disintegrating and SLD on life support.
In 1987 SCON won 10 constituencies, this was deemed a political disaster.
Shock horror, 1987 and 2016 aren't the same. The position of the SNP for starters.
The SNP have been the Scottish government for the last nine years. Political parties tend to be losing support fast at that point.
Scotland is not normal, especially since the indyref was only a couple of years ago which totally polarised things to the benefit of the SNP.
It also polarised things to the benefit of SCON as SLAB has disintegrated.
So SCON should be a safe home for anti-independence and anti-government votes.
Yet when it comes down to it the inconvenient fact remains:
1987 SCON wins 10 constituencies and is said to have disasterous defeat 2016 SCON wins 7 constituencies and is said to have amazing victory
Remind me what happened before the 1987 election. Then remind me what happened before the 2016 election. It's as if you are ignoring the nadir of the Scottish Tory party on purpose.
Its as if you ignoring inconvenient election results.
Please do your own reminding its only going to deepen the hole you're digging.
And you are obviously ignoring the situation in which those elections were fought. SCON won 21 constituencies in the election before 87. How many did they win in the election before 2016?
And you are obviously ignoring the situation in which those elections were fought. SCON were defending the record of a two term Conservative Westminster government in 1987 but attacking the record of a two term SNP Holyrood government in 2016.
With SLAB disintegrating and SLD on life support the circumstances were near optimum for SCON to do well.
Interesting spin lines from CCHQ, I've seen quite a few Tory MPs, including cabinet ministers going for this line
@DavidGauke: Labour's collapse in Scotland means that, whoever leads them, they can only govern the UK in future with the help of the SNP.
Of course. The image of Miliband in Salmon's pocket wasn't just for 2015 - there will be a new version of the same in 2020.
Likely different situation though - unless the polls are very similar to 2015 (and accorded similar credibility which is a big if) the SNP-Lab coalition idea is off the table. Lab will rule it out unequivocally and early in order to protect their own vote north of the border as well as neutralising the attack line. "Only Labour can kick out the Tories at Westminster" has to be the doorstep line. Well, either that or a formal SLAB/SNP merger I guess.
In any case, the new found right wing economic zeal of the Nats rather reduces their appeal as a coalition partner. (And as the joke goes, a party with extremist separatist leadership known to support challenges to the legimate government of the United Kingdom would never be accepted as a coalition partner by a mainstream outfit like the SNP.)
Labour have managed to be tremendously efficient in Wales this time round. The 7.4 % vote reduction is not a million miles off the 9.2 reduction in Scotland but it has only cost them 2 seats in Wales.
Foes that mean Labour are on the edge of dropping a lot of seats in Wales should their vote fall even further next time?
To put the SCON results into historical perspective they have won 7 constituencies against a nine year old Scottish government with SLAB disintegrating and SLD on life support.
In 1987 SCON won 10 constituencies, this was deemed a political disaster.
Shock horror, 1987 and 2016 aren't the same. The position of the SNP for starters.
The SNP have been the Scottish government for the last nine years. Political parties tend to be losing support fast at that point.
Scotland is not normal, especially since the indyref was only a couple of years ago which totally polarised things to the benefit of the SNP.
It also polarised things to the benefit of SCON as SLAB has disintegrated.
So SCON should be a safe home for anti-independence and anti-government votes.
Yet when it comes down to it the inconvenient fact remains:
1987 SCON wins 10 constituencies and is said to have disasterous defeat 2016 SCON wins 7 constituencies and is said to have amazing victory
1987 meant a loss of 12 seats. it was the year that a slow gradual decline accelerated into free fall. Ten years later, the Conservatives had no seats at all. This year has seen a significant improvement in both seats and vote share.
I don't think the Conservatives can ever be more than the second party in Scotland, but if they could win the three Borders seats, two or three in the North East, Eastwood, and a couple in Edinburgh, they'd have a comfortable lead in the Commons.
Apparently we're supposed to think that because the Tories have done better in the very distant past (sorry people who remember 1987), it's not reasonable to call a significant recovery 30 bloody years later amazing. I guess it's the same logic as all those who said even though Cameron was PM he hadn't won because he didn't have an overall majority. No doubt if the LDs ever recover to 30 seats or so (which based off this set of results is going to be a long time, off ever), it won't count as good because they've been higher than that.
You'd had a long period from 1959, in which the Scottish Conservatives gradually lost the support of working class Protestants. 1987 was the year they lost the middle classes.
If by some miracle the Mayoral election is very close today and the Barnet turnout is down a lot on previous elections is there a chance of a revote in Barnet being called before the Mayoral result can be officially announced?
The SNP have been the Scottish government for the last nine years. Political parties tend to be losing support fast at that point.
Scotland is not normal, especially since the indyref was only a couple of years ago which totally polarised things to the benefit of the SNP.
It also polarised things to the benefit of SCON as SLAB has disintegrated.
So SCON should be a safe home for anti-independence and anti-government votes.
Yet when it comes down to it the inconvenient fact remains:
1987 SCON wins 10 constituencies and is said to have disasterous defeat 2016 SCON wins 7 constituencies and is said to have amazing victory
Remind me what happened before the 1987 election. Then remind me what happened before the 2016 election. It's as if you are ignoring the nadir of the Scottish Tory party on purpose.
Its as if you ignoring inconvenient election results.
Please do your own reminding its only going to deepen the hole you're digging.
And you are obviously ignoring the situation in which those elections were fought. SCON won 21 constituencies in the election before 87. How many did they win in the election before 2016?
And you are obviously ignoring the situation in which those elections were fought. SCON were defending the record of a two term Conservative Westminster government in 1987 but attacking the record of a two term SNP Holyrood government in 2016.
With SLAB disintegrating and SLD on life support the circumstances were near optimum for SCON to do well.
Now SCON have done well against SLAB - I'm sure we're all delighted at SLAB's demise - but the bigging up of their overall performance reached ridiculous levels.
How many local councils are left to declare? I still can't get over SCON - incredible result. Seeing the polling was entertaining, but turning it into reality is WHOA!!
What's this 1910 result Sky keep quoting about Labour?
How many local councils are left to declare? I still can't get over SCON - incredible result. Seeing the polling was entertaining, but turning it into reality is WHOA!!
What's this 1910 result Sky keep quoting about Labour?
See the George Eaton tweet at the top of the thread.
LBC reporting that turnout in inner London in low 20% whereas in the outer london boroughs in the high 30s to low 40%. Could make things interesting...
@another_richard I think you're understating the Scottish Conservative achievement in 2016. They've gone from being an irrelevant piñata to being decidedly relevant. Given the toxicity of the Conservative brand in Scotland over the last generation, that's a huge achievement.
LBC reporting that turnout in inner London in low 20% whereas in the outer london boroughs in the high 30s to low 40%. Could make things interesting...
That was the Tory game plan. I predict that Goldsmith has done it - by a whisker.
If Barnet needs to be rerun, they will have to do the whole mayoral election citywide. Otherwise the voice of Barnet would be unduly diminished by lower turnout because of the lower publicity the rerun would get.
Labour have managed to be tremendously efficient in Wales this time round. The 7.4 % vote reduction is not a million miles off the 9.2 reduction in Scotland but it has only cost them 2 seats in Wales.
Foes that mean Labour are on the edge of dropping a lot of seats in Wales should their vote fall even further next time?
Well Labour did have a tremendously efficient Scottish vote before ! Seat wise Labour is in a very similar position to the SNP but with around 12 less % of the vote !!!
Morning all! Results not half as bad as was being touted for Labour, so in a better mood than I thought I would be. Apparently we can retain southern councils and win seats too....
Anyway, I did a sweep of 16 polling stations last night an hour before they shut for our Police and Crime Commissioner election.The worst had a turnout of 3%!
@another_richard I think you're understating the Scottish Conservative achievement in 2016. They've gone from being an irrelevant piñata to being decidedly relevant. Given the toxicity of the Conservative brand in Scotland over the last generation, that's a huge achievement.
There's an advantage to being the last Unionist man standing.
SLAB and SLD have toxified their own brands since 2010.
Anyway have to work now, enjoy the rest of the results.
Good morning all. Well, a funny old night and Jezza just about hanging on. UKIP advanced has slowed in my estimation. L/Dems peeping here and there. Cameroons in the doldrums.
@another_richard I think you're understating the Scottish Conservative achievement in 2016. They've gone from being an irrelevant piñata to being decidedly relevant. Given the toxicity of the Conservative brand in Scotland over the last generation, that's a huge achievement.
And I have to confess that the scorn I poured on your tip of 8/1 for the SNP not getting a majority was completely misplaced. I actually believed the SNP hype and expected a majority of the constituencies alone but it hasn't turned out like that. Not at all.
@KennyFarq: If Nicola doesn't want to be dragged to left - for example on fracking - she may be tempted to do confidence & supply deal with Lib Dems. /
Interesting result night. Big theme for me is the importance of personality and leadership.
Ruth Davidson is a bloody brilliant politician and deserves a ton of credit for her remarkable result. Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP leadership are so strong. Where Labour did well, it was was down to the local leadership (such as Crawley).
Labour should make gains in London anyway given London was a rarevLabour success story in 2015. So if Corbyn is a net positive Labour should do even better.
Corbyn identified Scotland as a priority when he was elected. Labour has gone backwards, just as it has in Wales.
In England, Labour has performed OK where it was previously doing OK. There is no evidence of any progress at all in places where the party needs to advance. And Labour is up against a Tory party that is currently engaged in civil war. Would Labour be losing tens of thousands of Jewish votes had another candidate won? I doubt it, but clearly can't be certain.
The prognosis is clear and unavoidable: Labour underbthe leadership of the hard left is heading towards a big defeat in 2020 despite being up against an unpopular, hoprlessly divided Tory government.
It's mostly counterfactuals and correlation which may imply causation though. Is Labour going forward at the speed we would like. No. Is there evidence that this would be better under other leadership, ie that someone else is a better "net positive" than Corbyn? No. Is it certain that any of the other candidates would not have actually been net negative? No.
The only point where it seems clear that the present leadership is a net negative is the anti-semitism row which was a massive failure of decisive leadership and party discipline. It's disgraceful and needs to be addressed regardless of electoral maths, but looking narrowly at the electoral situation we are discussing here it doesn't seem to have made a whole lot of difference to overall outcomes.
To turn it around, the Tory party is up against a Laboir party that is currently engaged in a civil war, which goes a long way to explaining the problem. That's primarily because its MPs don't want to be part of the programme of the leadership elected by the members. Blaming the "hard left" (ie the members and leadership) for the civil war is not a whole lot different to blaming a national electorate and their chosen government for their country being blighted by terrorism carried out by a group opposed to that government's agenda: whilst some might see the terrorists as freedom fighters, the default assumption is that they're the ones to blame.
The SNP have been the Scottish government for the last nine years. Political parties tend to be losing support fast at that point.
Scotland is not normal, especially since the indyref was only a couple of years ago which totally polarised things to the benefit of the SNP.
It also polar
Remind me what happe.
Its as if you ignoring inconv
Please do your own reminding its only going to deepen the hole you're digging.
And in the election before 87. How many did they win in the election before 2016?
And you are obviously ignoring the situation in which those elections were fought. SCON were defending the record of a two term Conservative Westminster government in 1987 but attacking the record of a two term SNP Holyrood government in 2016.
With SLAB disintegrating and SLD on life support the circumstances were near optimum for SCON to do well.
Now SCON have done well against SLAB - I'm sure we're all delighted at SLAB's demise - but the bigging up of their overall performance reached ridiculous levels.
And your repetition of a fact not in dispute, and thus not inconvenient, as though it disproves anything is even more ridiculous. I don't even understand what point you are trying to make, since I can't see anyone who would argue that this result is not as good as results they've achieved in the past. But it is a good result for this present.
Wow, mind blown! Scottish conservatives used to do better than now! Never mind they had also done a lot worse and have recovered.
Also, I've heard the Tories won over 400 seats in the 20s, I don't know why anyone ever said Thatcher did OK getting less than that.
Oh, and to cut off a probable whinge about my own biases or something, the only vote I've ever cast for the Tories is a PCC second preference, I have no reason to talk up Tory successes, and in fact have said I think about Labour not doing as bad as thought.
@journodave: 'Scotland's more left wing. Scotland wants to be like Scandinavia. Scots don't mind paying more tax' is that right, aye? #SP16
Denmark and Finland have centre right governments, Sweden a populist rightwing party on rise, Scotland still has a centre left party as its largest just a centre right party now the main opposition
Scott is not too bright. You are a bit wrong there as well, it is a centre right party in power and a right wing junta now the main opposition
@another_richard I think you're understating the Scottish Conservative achievement in 2016. They've gone from being an irrelevant piñata to being decidedly relevant. Given the toxicity of the Conservative brand in Scotland over the last generation, that's a huge achievement.
And I have to confess that the scorn I poured on your tip of 8/1 for the SNP not getting a majority was completely misplaced. I actually believed the SNP hype and expected a majority of the constituencies alone but it hasn't turned out like that. Not at all.
Signiicant antiSNP tactical voting and lazy SNP voters did for the majority. The difference between SnP 49 Con 19 and SNP 46 Con 22 is huge in terms of constituency seats.
LBC reporting that turnout in inner London in low 20% whereas in the outer london boroughs in the high 30s to low 40%. Could make things interesting...
That was the Tory game plan. I predict that Goldsmith has done it - by a whisker.
It was neck and neck in suburbs Khan landslide in inner London so probably not enough
Labour have managed to be tremendously efficient in Wales this time round. The 7.4 % vote reduction is not a million miles off the 9.2 reduction in Scotland but it has only cost them 2 seats in Wales.
Foes that mean Labour are on the edge of dropping a lot of seats in Wales should their vote fall even further next time?
Well Labour did have a tremendously efficient Scottish vote before ! Seat wise Labour is in a very similar position to the SNP but with around 12 less % of the vote !!!
Wow. Is that a function of the 59 list seats in Scotland making up a greater share of all seats than the 20 list seats in Wales?
@another_richard I think you're understating the Scottish Conservative achievement in 2016. They've gone from being an irrelevant piñata to being decidedly relevant. Given the toxicity of the Conservative brand in Scotland over the last generation, that's a huge achievement.
There's an advantage to being the last Unionist man standing.
SLAB and SLD have toxified their own brands since 2010.
Anyway have to work now, enjoy the rest of the results.
Willie Ross said in the 1990s that Scottish politics would become 'ever more nationalist and unionist', and he was right.
It's pleasant to see the SNP cult moving backwards, but I am still far from certain this ends well.
Tory comeback is right. I keep having to remind people that their suggestion Scotland=Labour is nonsense. Not that long ago that there were a lot of Tory MPs north of the border...
Labour has lost vote share and its majority in Wales. That is not OK.
Nick, you've made your peace with the hard left, so good for you. But let's not pretend you've done anything other than give up on the people Labour is supposed to be in the business of helping to a better life.
Interesting result night. Big theme for me is the importance of personality and leadership.
Ruth Davidson is a bloody brilliant politician and deserves a ton of credit for her remarkable result. Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP leadership are so strong. Where Labour did well, it was was down to the local leadership (such as Crawley).
The men (and women) in grey suits need to beware.
True. And Willie Rennie had a surprise win for the Lib Dems as well after a good campaign. Even that berk from the Greens Patrick Harvie did well. Leadership and character have been heavily rewarded in this election.
Comments
1987 SCON wins 10 constituencies
2016 SCON wins 7 constituencies
Please do your own reminding its only going to deepen the hole you're digging.
The Tories can forge a massive political conflict with the SNP, make it look more and more like Nationalist Scotland versus the Rest of the UK, and then before each election point north and say to the English, would you like that lot and Corbyn combining to govern you??
FPT: The swing to Labour in Sheffield Brightside with both Tories and UKIP down is striking. I don't know the area at all, but it seems to include Hillsborough, where the football disaster happened on which the report recently vindicated campaigners like Andy Burnham. Might that be relevant?
I don't think the Conservatives can ever be more than the second party in Scotland, but if they could win the three Borders seats, two or three in the North East, Eastwood, and a couple in Edinburgh, they'd have a comfortable lead in the Commons.
Tories are going to have to watch carefully for signs of a lib dem revival as that seems most likely to harm them in 2020
Can see Remain taking advantage of this quite quickly.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hookah
Corbyn identified Scotland as a priority when he was elected. Labour has gone backwards, just as it has in Wales.
In England, Labour has performed OK where it was previously doing OK. There is no evidence of any progress at all in places where the party needs to advance. And Labour is up against a Tory party that is currently engaged in civil war. Would Labour be losing tens of thousands of Jewish votes had another candidate won? I doubt it, but clearly can't be certain.
The prognosis is clear and unavoidable: Labour underbthe leadership of the hard left is heading towards a big defeat in 2020 despite being up against an unpopular, hoprlessly divided Tory government.
A better idea for the SNP would be to accept the occasional defeat they can then claim that SLAB, SCON etc are 'all the same'.
4.3% presently.
As a Tory voter, bit early to say with barely half of English council results in and what looks like a bit of a disappointment in Wales, but I'm really pleased for Ruth Davidson and the Scottish Tories, that's a stunning result for them, making "proper" gains of actual constituency seats and Ruth Davidson herself pulling off what must be a wholly unexpected personal triumph in Edinburgh Central. I am sure she will be a very effective Official Opposition leader in Scotland and endear herself further.
Is she the New Boris - a leading Tory who outperforms the party and has personal charisma and appeal? With Boris's star on the wane after his Euro mess-ups, and with nobody else in the Cabinet having anything remotely close to the voter appeal of Cameron, I can't help feeling she is the obvious, yet of course totally inconceivable, replacement for Dave.
Shisha in Arabia
Bong in UK!
But it should be harder for SCON at the next Westminster elections as they will be defending the record of a ten year Conservative Westminster government not attacking the record of a nine year SNP Holyrood government.
Oh, I must move in different circles to most on here....
.........................................
Laters ......
With SLAB disintegrating and SLD on life support the circumstances were near optimum for SCON to do well.
1987 SCON wins 10 constituencies
2016 SCON wins 7 constituencies
Nick, you've made your peace with the hard left, so good for you. But let's not pretend you've done anything other than give up on the people Labour is supposed to be in the business of helping to a better life.
In any case, the new found right wing economic zeal of the Nats rather reduces their appeal as a coalition partner. (And as the joke goes, a party with extremist separatist leadership known to support challenges to the legimate government of the United Kingdom would never be accepted as a coalition partner by a mainstream outfit like the SNP.)
This is a very bad night for Labour...
Trending to Conservative in Scotland.
Trending to UKIP in Wales.
Trending to Mehh in England.
Tables turned: could @ScotTories have done better in #sp16 if only they weren't tainted by #indyref association with @scottishlabour ?
The inconvenient fact remains:
1987 SCON wins 10 constituencies
2016 SCON wins 7 constituencies
Now SCON have done well against SLAB - I'm sure we're all delighted at SLAB's demise - but the bigging up of their overall performance reached ridiculous levels.
What's this 1910 result Sky keep quoting about Labour?
Could make things interesting...
#SP16
Final Regional vote share
SNP 41.7%
CONSERVATIVES 22.9%
LABOUR 19.1%
GREENS 6.6%
LIBDEMS 5.2%
UKIP 2%
SOLIDARITY 0.6%
CHRISTIAN 0.5%
About right ?
Anyway, I did a sweep of 16 polling stations last night an hour before they shut for our Police and Crime Commissioner election.The worst had a turnout of 3%!
SLAB and SLD have toxified their own brands since 2010.
Anyway have to work now, enjoy the rest of the results.
Well, a funny old night and Jezza just about hanging on.
UKIP advanced has slowed in my estimation.
L/Dems peeping here and there.
Cameroons in the doldrums.
In other words; a right old mess.
I want Ruth Davidson to ride AT LEAST an elephant around Edinburgh South.
Maybe now they will STFU about it and get on with governing, which will reveal their shortcoming even more.
Where did I park my ROFLCOPTER?
Ruth Davidson is a bloody brilliant politician and deserves a ton of credit for her remarkable result.
Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP leadership are so strong.
Where Labour did well, it was was down to the local leadership (such as Crawley).
The men (and women) in grey suits need to beware.
The only point where it seems clear that the present leadership is a net negative is the anti-semitism row which was a massive failure of decisive leadership and party discipline. It's disgraceful and needs to be addressed regardless of electoral maths, but looking narrowly at the electoral situation we are discussing here it doesn't seem to have made a whole lot of difference to overall outcomes.
To turn it around, the Tory party is up against a Laboir party that is currently engaged in a civil war, which goes a long way to explaining the problem. That's primarily because its MPs don't want to be part of the programme of the leadership elected by the members. Blaming the "hard left" (ie the members and leadership) for the civil war is not a whole lot different to blaming a national electorate and their chosen government for their country being blighted by terrorism carried out by a group opposed to that government's agenda: whilst some might see the terrorists as freedom fighters, the default assumption is that they're the ones to blame.
But I'll save you the trouble:
The inconvenient fact remains:
1987 SCON wins 10 constituencies
2016 SCON wins 7 constituencies
Wow, mind blown! Scottish conservatives used to do better than now! Never mind they had also done a lot worse and have recovered.
Also, I've heard the Tories won over 400 seats in the 20s, I don't know why anyone ever said Thatcher did OK getting less than that.
Oh, and to cut off a probable whinge about my own biases or something, the only vote I've ever cast for the Tories is a PCC second preference, I have no reason to talk up Tory successes, and in fact have said I think about Labour not doing as bad as thought.
https://twitter.com/telepolitics/status/728498292007567360
However, if he did, what does that do for Corbyn's political life expectancy?
It's pleasant to see the SNP cult moving backwards, but I am still far from certain this ends well.
London Mayoral race "too close to call" sources say.
When are they going to publish the individual borough turnout numbers?
A bit further than so far, and Zac Goldsmith not slightly ahead.
Wow if Zac does it.