A far bigger factor in next week's elections, rather than the Livingstone fiasco, will be 5 million public sector workers discovering this week that their pay has been cut by Osbrone's very stealth tax.
Would you give details please.
(I'm not being argumentative but genuinely interested).
It is a modest decrease in pay for public sector workers in nominal terms, more significant in real terms. The increase in employers NI contribution is quite significant for the NHS as a cost pressure.
Heads up.... My so far information, is that the local elections are going to more or less mirror the GE results last year in vote percentage for labour and con... Very small sub sample.... A combination of canvassing results, and other source of information that i cant go into.
Heads up.... My so far information, is that the local elections are going to more or less mirror the GE results last year in vote percentage for labour and con... Very small sub sample.... A combination of canvassing results, and other source of information that i cant go into.
That would be 7% swing from Labour to Conservative compared to the 2012 local elections which is the correct comparison to make according to all the experts such as Rallings & Thrasher. 2012 projected national share was Lab 39%, Con 31%.
A far bigger factor in next week's elections, rather than the Livingstone fiasco, will be 5 million public sector workers discovering this week that their pay has been cut by Osbrone's very stealth tax.
Would you give details please.
(I'm not being argumentative but genuinely interested).
It is a modest decrease in pay for public sector workers in nominal terms, more significant in real terms. The increase in employers NI contribution is quite significant for the NHS as a cost pressure.
What a fascinating, worrying, and heartfelt article. Thank you for posting it. Made me grateful, very grateful, I'm not sharing his position, but wow, made me think.
The Left on both sides of the Atlantic seem incapable of controlling themselves it would seem.
Stephen fry recently gave a liberal lefty in the US, both despairing at the state of liberals. It is worth a watch as two bright lefties have a sensible discussion...talking about the regressive left.
This has got to be the twitter post of the day. (As posted below)
Ian Austin @IanAustinMP "This row about Ken Livingstone & Hitler is so unfair. One was a horrible extremist obsessed with Jews. The other was leader of Nazi Germany"
Heads up.... My so far information, is that the local elections are going to more or less mirror the GE results last year in vote percentage for labour and con... Very small sub sample.... A combination of canvassing results, and other source of information that i cant go into.
I agree. Although, it seems Labour think they might not get their vote out, so, perhaps slight swing to Tories, perhaps a tad more (I could be wrong) . Khan winning would just reflect Labour's dominance in London.
I have list track, he is still going to be short in the end right?
He's going to easily reach 1,237, doesn't even require Indiana now. New Jersey, West Virginia and California will suffice.
And who would have thought that was possible a year ago?
The 996 includes the technically unbound delegates of Pennsylvania. Better I think to exlcude them since Cruz is unlikely to concede until/if Trump reaches 1,237 bound delegates.
Heads up.... My so far information, is that the local elections are going to more or less mirror the GE results last year in vote percentage for labour and con... Very small sub sample.... A combination of canvassing results, and other source of information that i cant go into.
That would be 7% swing from Labour to Conservative compared to the 2012 local elections which is the correct comparison to make according to all the experts such as Rallings & Thrasher. 2012 projected national share was Lab 39%, Con 31%.
I have list track, he is still going to be short in the end right?
He's going to easily reach 1,237, doesn't even require Indiana now. New Jersey, West Virginia and California will suffice.
And who would have thought that was possible a year ago?
Although Indiana is described as a WTA this is statewide (30) and 9 X 3 congressional area - so presumably Trump could 'lose' Indiana and still pick up a number of delegates. - But it is a big jump from 12 candidates (winning 4 of 9) to 45 (winning 5 of 9 + statewide) - assuming percentage of votes in each district are the same +- 1
A far bigger factor in next week's elections, rather than the Livingstone fiasco, will be 5 million public sector workers discovering this week that their pay has been cut by Osbrone's very stealth tax.
Would you give details please.
(I'm not being argumentative but genuinely interested).
It is a modest decrease in pay for public sector workers in nominal terms, more significant in real terms. The increase in employers NI contribution is quite significant for the NHS as a cost pressure.
I'm sure the £1000 a year less income tax they are paying more than makes up for it.
A far bigger factor in next week's elections, rather than the Livingstone fiasco, will be 5 million public sector workers discovering this week that their pay has been cut by Osbrone's very stealth tax.
I just knew he shouldn't have called it the Stealth Tax, it just sounds bad!
Wait till they retire and find, despite paying into the NHS Pension scheme for 40 years that they get £31 a week less state pension than someone who has been on benefits all their life. 0% of Public sector workers who paid into an Occupational Pension will get £150 OAP
I have list track, he is still going to be short in the end right?
He's going to easily reach 1,237, doesn't even require Indiana now. New Jersey, West Virginia and California will suffice.
And who would have thought that was possible a year ago?
Although Indiana is described as a WTA this is statewide (30) and 9 X 3 congressional area - so presumably Trump could 'lose' Indiana and still pick up a number of delegates. - But it is a big jump from 12 candidates (winning 4 of 9) to 45 (winning 5 of 9 + statewide) - assuming percentage of votes in each district are the same +- 1
I agree - so I put it in the thread header! The second placed candidate will receive twelve delegates at most. Trump + 2 (per Clout Research) would give Cruz 12, Trump + 9 (ARG) would see a Trump sweep, Cruz + 16 would see a Cruz sweep.
Heads up.... My so far information, is that the local elections are going to more or less mirror the GE results last year in vote percentage for labour and con... Very small sub sample.... A combination of canvassing results, and other source of information that i cant go into.
That would be 7% swing from Labour to Conservative compared to the 2012 local elections which is the correct comparison to make according to all the experts such as Rallings & Thrasher. 2012 projected national share was Lab 39%, Con 31%.
Yup, 2012 was peak omnishambles, i expected the bad few months for the government to have filtered through, but no, things are as solid as the run up to GE last year.
If we are going to get this year what we got in 2012, it will be a labour bloodbath...
Zac will win Merton. Figures are looking really good in Harrow. Amazingly positive rumours about Camden!
Labour had a 4231 vote lead over the Conservatives in Merton borough last year.
Why are you so confident that Zac will win there ? Differential turnout or second preferences from middle class LibDems in Wimbledon and UKIP voters ?
As to Camden - its possible that Zac might do better than expected there but I hope you're not suggesting that has actually a chance of winning the borough ?
Labour MP in Mitcham/Morden has strong following that doesn't always transfer to other elections. There's been a stronger focus by Zac in the borough than Boris did. Labour Council in disarray - sackings, resignations. Plus Assembly Member candidate for Tories is a Merton man where as before always Wandsworth, some Reds will vote for him and Zac. Lastly, local Labour very Blairite, not fans of Khan or Corbyn so they are doing less. Oh, and quite strong Lib Dem in Wimbledon part and they more often break Tory at this election.
I do find Camden unbelievable, quite unbelievable. It is what Labour are telling me. They could be lying or wrong.
Heads up.... My so far information, is that the local elections are going to more or less mirror the GE results last year in vote percentage for labour and con... Very small sub sample.... A combination of canvassing results, and other source of information that i cant go into.
Heads up.... My so far information, is that the local elections are going to more or less mirror the GE results last year in vote percentage for labour and con... Very small sub sample.... A combination of canvassing results, and other source of information that i cant go into.
That would be 7% swing from Labour to Conservative compared to the 2012 local elections which is the correct comparison to make according to all the experts such as Rallings & Thrasher. 2012 projected national share was Lab 39%, Con 31%.
Yup, 2012 was peak omnishambles, i expected the bad few months for the government to have filtered through, but no, things are as solid as the run up to GE last year.
If we are going to get this year what we got in 2012, it will be a labour bloodbath...
I'm glad you say so. I have a mix of figures from different parties and I agree. I don't want to say too much about Tory position either, but happy to communicate Labour opinion.
A far bigger factor in next week's elections, rather than the Livingstone fiasco, will be 5 million public sector workers discovering this week that their pay has been cut by Osbrone's very stealth tax.
I just knew he shouldn't have called it the Stealth Tax, it just sounds bad!
Wait till they retire and find, despite paying into the NHS Pension scheme for 40 years that they get £31 a week less state pension than someone who has been on benefits all their life. 0% of Public sector workers who paid into an Occupational Pension will get £150 OAP
And not to forget Brown's pension tax has been roundly shafting some of us for 19 unrepealed years. The public sector do not know they are born when it comes to pensions. A million fucking quid at 65 with 50% spouse pension at RPI uprate ( so a "civil service pension") buys you under £27k this week. Welcome to the real world and stop whinging
Zac will win Merton. Figures are looking really good in Harrow. Amazingly positive rumours about Camden!
Labour had a 4231 vote lead over the Conservatives in Merton borough last year.
Why are you so confident that Zac will win there ? Differential turnout or second preferences from middle class LibDems in Wimbledon and UKIP voters ?
As to Camden - its possible that Zac might do better than expected there but I hope you're not suggesting that has actually a chance of winning the borough ?
Labour MP in Mitcham/Morden has strong following that doesn't always transfer to other elections. There's been a stronger focus by Zac in the borough than Boris did. Labour Council in disarray - sackings, resignations. Plus Assembly Member candidate for Tories is a Merton man where as before always Wandsworth, some Reds will vote for him and Zac. Lastly, local Labour very Blairite, not fans of Khan or Corbyn so they are doing less. Oh, and quite strong Lib Dem in Wimbledon part and they more often break Tory at this election.
I do find Camden unbelievable, quite unbelievable. It is what Labour are telling me. They could be lying or wrong.
Heads up.... My so far information, is that the local elections are going to more or less mirror the GE results last year in vote percentage for labour and con... Very small sub sample.... A combination of canvassing results, and other source of information that i cant go into.
Its goodbye Corbyn if that's the case.
Part of me feels that such an outcome is absolutely necessary for the good of our democracy
And part of me wants this chaos to continue to another few years - so that Labour is destroyed completely.
Heads up.... My so far information, is that the local elections are going to more or less mirror the GE results last year in vote percentage for labour and con... Very small sub sample.... A combination of canvassing results, and other source of information that i cant go into.
But but but the guardian reporter following him around this week.said he was super popular like a rock star.... ;-)
Heads up.... My so far information, is that the local elections are going to more or less mirror the GE results last year in vote percentage for labour and con... Very small sub sample.... A combination of canvassing results, and other source of information that i cant go into.
Its goodbye Corbyn if that's the case.
Not unless Labour lose the London mayoral election.
Heads up.... My so far information, is that the local elections are going to more or less mirror the GE results last year in vote percentage for labour and con... Very small sub sample.... A combination of canvassing results, and other source of information that i cant go into.
Its goodbye Corbyn if that's the case.
Part of me feels that such an outcome is absolutely necessary for the good of our democracy
And part of me wants this chaos to continue to another few years - so that Labour is destroyed completely.
A far bigger factor in next week's elections, rather than the Livingstone fiasco, will be 5 million public sector workers discovering this week that their pay has been cut by Osbrone's very stealth tax.
I just knew he shouldn't have called it the Stealth Tax, it just sounds bad!
Wait till they retire and find, despite paying into the NHS Pension scheme for 40 years that they get £31 a week less state pension than someone who has been on benefits all their life. 0% of Public sector workers who paid into an Occupational Pension will get £150 OAP
And not to forget Brown's pension tax has been roundly shafting some of us for 19 unrepealed years. The public sector do not know they are born when it comes to pensions. A million fucking quid at 65 with 50% spouse pension at RPI uprate ( so a "civil service pension") buys you under £27k this week. Welcome to the real world and stop whinging.
RCS linked to an interesting piece on an American living on a precarious income with little in reserve, notably raiding his pension to help pay for a wedding.
Nationally we have been doing the same. We used to have quite sound pensions as a nation. The raiding of these for taxes by Brown or NI for Osborne (affecting several million private sector workers too), and artificially depressed bond rates are all ways of raiding savings to pay for current expenditure.
'Wait till they retire and find, despite paying into the NHS Pension scheme for 40 years that they get £31 a week less state pension than someone who has been on benefits all their life. 0% of Public sector workers who paid into an Occupational Pension will get £150 '
You should have worked in the private sector and experienced your pension being trashed by Gordon Brown.Public sector workers still get pension deals people in the private sector can only dream about.
Heads up.... My so far information, is that the local elections are going to more or less mirror the GE results last year in vote percentage for labour and con... Very small sub sample.... A combination of canvassing results, and other source of information that i cant go into.
Its goodbye Corbyn if that's the case.
Part of me feels that such an outcome is absolutely necessary for the good of our democracy
And part of me wants this chaos to continue to another few years - so that Labour is destroyed completely.
The destruction would be deserved.
I know - but we do need a strong opposition party in order to make our parliamentary system work.
Heads up.... My so far information, is that the local elections are going to more or less mirror the GE results last year in vote percentage for labour and con... Very small sub sample.... A combination of canvassing results, and other source of information that i cant go into.
Its goodbye Corbyn if that's the case.
Not unless Labour lose the London mayoral election.
How much are non-London Labour MPs concerned about that compared to whether they might get the Ed Balls experience.
Heads up.... My so far information, is that the local elections are going to more or less mirror the GE results last year in vote percentage for labour and con... Very small sub sample.... A combination of canvassing results, and other source of information that i cant go into.
Its goodbye Corbyn if that's the case.
Not unless Labour lose the London mayoral election.
Labour will keep First Minister in Wales because Plaid/Labour will always get 30 out of 60 seats. Scotland they have written off. I agree, London Mayoralty would be big loss for Corbyn, but he would still survive I reckon. Khan is clearly absolutely odds on.
Heads up.... My so far information, is that the local elections are going to more or less mirror the GE results last year in vote percentage for labour and con... Very small sub sample.... A combination of canvassing results, and other source of information that i cant go into.
Its goodbye Corbyn if that's the case.
Not unless Labour lose the London mayoral election.
Labour will keep First Minister in Wales because Plaid/Labour will always get 30 out of 60 seats. Scotland they have written off. I agree, London Mayoralty would be big loss for Corbyn, but he would still survive I reckon. Khan is clearly absolutely odds on.
Labour won't get majority in Wales but will be biggest party. Plaid just ain't the SNP.
Heads up.... My so far information, is that the local elections are going to more or less mirror the GE results last year in vote percentage for labour and con... Very small sub sample.... A combination of canvassing results, and other source of information that i cant go into.
Ha, atleast make your bogus canvassing anecdotes a bit believable.
Apart from anything else, half the people who voted in the GE will not even be voting in the locals, so that alone means canvass returns will not be coming close to "mirroring" the 2015 data.
A far bigger factor in next week's elections, rather than the Livingstone fiasco, will be 5 million public sector workers discovering this week that their pay has been cut by Osbrone's very stealth tax.
I just knew he shouldn't have called it the Stealth Tax, it just sounds bad!
Wait till they retire and find, despite paying into the NHS Pension scheme for 40 years that they get £31 a week less state pension than someone who has been on benefits all their life. 0% of Public sector workers who paid into an Occupational Pension will get £150 OAP
And not to forget Brown's pension tax has been roundly shafting some of us for 19 unrepealed years. The public sector do not know they are born when it comes to pensions. A million fucking quid at 65 with 50% spouse pension at RPI uprate ( so a "civil service pension") buys you under £27k this week. Welcome to the real world and stop whinging
Pension miss selling IMO
Nobody who joined the NHS pension scheme and saved a tiny bit of NI expected their state pension would be up to £35 a week less than someone who couldnt be arsed to even join an occupational pension. Whats RPI?
Heads up.... My so far information, is that the local elections are going to more or less mirror the GE results last year in vote percentage for labour and con... Very small sub sample.... A combination of canvassing results, and other source of information that i cant go into.
Its goodbye Corbyn if that's the case.
Not unless Labour lose the London mayoral election.
Labour will keep First Minister in Wales because Plaid/Labour will always get 30 out of 60 seats. Scotland they have written off. I agree, London Mayoralty would be big loss for Corbyn, but he would still survive I reckon. Khan is clearly absolutely odds on.
This...and they will point to this as the Corbyism project working.
Heads up.... My so far information, is that the local elections are going to more or less mirror the GE results last year in vote percentage for labour and con... Very small sub sample.... A combination of canvassing results, and other source of information that i cant go into.
Its goodbye Corbyn if that's the case.
Not unless Labour lose the London mayoral election.
Labour will keep First Minister in Wales because Plaid/Labour will always get 30 out of 60 seats. Scotland they have written off. I agree, London Mayoralty would be big loss for Corbyn, but he would still survive I reckon. Khan is clearly absolutely odds on.
This...and they will point to this as the Corbyism project working.
I agree. A Khan/Corbyn/Livingstone Mayoralty will be effing painful.
Difficult to feel a lot of sympathy for the writer since he admits spending $401k on his daughter's wedding. I'm sure most people would like to spend $401k on their child's wedding but they don't because they can't afford it.
Dunno if anyone else has already corrected you ... 401(k) is the American pensions account. Still, crazy to spend your pension fund on your daughter's wedding!
(Can't say I have lots of sympathy either, I save like mad due to health/disability issues meaning I never really know if I'm on the brink of being unable to work for a couple of years, as happens periodically. I've never felt comfortable unless I had enough cash readily accessible in the bank to pay my bills for 6 months, and preferably a year, without eating into long run savings and investments. If I was subject to the US system of gigantic medical bills that could fall on my head at random, I think I'd be even more cautious. But if all UK consumers scrimped and saved and generally behaved the way I do, it would screw the economy up royally.)
It said 'a small 401(k)', not 'our' or 'the'. Most Americans who have changed job regularly probably have multiple 401(k)s. It is not efficient to use pension funding in this way for larger or unexpected but necessary expenses, but it is not uncommon practice to do so.
Culturally, for someone as prominent as the author, it would be difficult not to have a decent wedding for your daughter, even if it meant cashing out a small fund.
Heads up.... My so far information, is that the local elections are going to more or less mirror the GE results last year in vote percentage for labour and con... Very small sub sample.... A combination of canvassing results, and other source of information that i cant go into.
That would be 7% swing from Labour to Conservative compared to the 2012 local elections which is the correct comparison to make according to all the experts such as Rallings & Thrasher. 2012 projected national share was Lab 39%, Con 31%.
Yup, 2012 was peak omnishambles, i expected the bad few months for the government to have filtered through, but no, things are as solid as the run up to GE last year.
If we are going to get this year what we got in 2012, it will be a labour bloodbath...
I'm glad you say so. I have a mix of figures from different parties and I agree. I don't want to say too much about Tory position either, but happy to communicate Labour opinion.
go on.....
From my perception of rest of UK. Scotland totally traumatic night, getting walloped by SNP is already factored in, but the outside possibility of coming third to Conservatives will be psychologically devastating. Best case scenario is coming dismally second to SNP, and pipping Cons. Wales, theyll lose a couple of seats, but stay in control, could be spun as another failure at a time Labour should be making gains England local elections. Labour will hold their own in their urban areas, i doubt there are many lib dems left to pick off. In the shires though its going to be a bit messy. Will be spun as a terrible night for Labour, large net losses. Lib dems will do very well in tory areas... London, a resounding success and shows how different London is from the rest of the country.
Lol who are these tories ramping about Zac carrying Merton and Camden they will lose them big margins Zac is seen as rich and and of touch no way will the wwc in these areas vote for him, Bojo was able to win some wwc class because he was seen as politically uncorrect Zac will romp home in the affluent tory suburbs and thats it.
'Wait till they retire and find, despite paying into the NHS Pension scheme for 40 years that they get £31 a week less state pension than someone who has been on benefits all their life. 0% of Public sector workers who paid into an Occupational Pension will get £150 '
You should have worked in the private sector and experienced your pension being trashed by Gordon Brown.Public sector workers still get pension deals people in the private sector can only dream about.
At the expense of losing £30+ per week from their state pension compared to those who never contributed to a pension.
The Left's identity policies began in the 1980s when they aimed for a 'rainbow coalition' of non-whites, homosexuals, greens, feminists, 'youths' etc to defeat the 'mainstream' Conservative voting blocs in middle suburban London.
I thought it was later than that, when they started copying the Democratic Party (basically post-Bill Clinton). In the 1980s they were still trying to protect duff industries and thuggish union leaders.
Heads up.... My so far information, is that the local elections are going to more or less mirror the GE results last year in vote percentage for labour and con... Very small sub sample.... A combination of canvassing results, and other source of information that i cant go into.
Its goodbye Corbyn if that's the case.
Not unless Labour lose the London mayoral election.
Labour will keep First Minister in Wales because Plaid/Labour will always get 30 out of 60 seats. Scotland they have written off. I agree, London Mayoralty would be big loss for Corbyn, but he would still survive I reckon. Khan is clearly absolutely odds on.
This...and they will point to this as the Corbyism project working.
Does Corbyn even know where Wales is? I sort of imagine that he has a map with 'There be dragons' marked on it for that part of the isles
Heads up.... My so far information, is that the local elections are going to more or less mirror the GE results last year in vote percentage for labour and con... Very small sub sample.... A combination of canvassing results, and other source of information that i cant go into.
Ha, atleast make your bogus canvassing anecdotes a bit believable.
Apart from anything else, half the people who voted in the GE will not even be voting in the locals, so that alone means canvass returns will not be coming close to "mirroring" the 2015 data.
First of all... My 'bogus canvassing anecdotes' nailed Cons at 36/37 a couple of weeks before last GE. And it seems your experience of canvassing might be somewhat limited.
While it is true the turnout will be about half that of a GE, when canvassed a voter doesnt ordinarily tell you if they are not going to vote at the local but would at a General. They usually just dont go out and vote on the day.
Canvass a hundred houses, 30 say they will vote for you, 30 say they wont vote for you, 20 say they might vote for you and 20 say they dont vote/ not interested.
That doesnt really change from General election to local election. When you canvass you get the same responses, assuming they havent switched sides. They just on the day dont bother.
But hey, who am I, i've only canvassed every year for twenty years.
The Left's identity policies began in the 1980s when they aimed for a 'rainbow coalition' of non-whites, homosexuals, greens, feminists, 'youths' etc to defeat the 'mainstream' Conservative voting blocs in middle suburban London.
I thought it was later than that, when they started copying the Democratic Party (basically post-Bill Clinton)
I think it was pioneered in London in the 1980s by Livingstone anongst others.
A far bigger factor in next week's elections, rather than the Livingstone fiasco, will be 5 million public sector workers discovering this week that their pay has been cut by Osbrone's very stealth tax.
I just knew he shouldn't have called it the Stealth Tax, it just sounds bad!
Wait till they retire and find, despite paying into the NHS Pension scheme for 40 years that they get £31 a week less state pension than someone who has been on benefits all their life. 0% of Public sector workers who paid into an Occupational Pension will get £150 OAP
And not to forget Brown's pension tax has been roundly shafting some of us for 19 unrepealed years. The public sector do not know they are born when it comes to pensions. A million fucking quid at 65 with 50% spouse pension at RPI uprate ( so a "civil service pension") buys you under £27k this week. Welcome to the real world and stop whinging.
RCS linked to an interesting piece on an American living on a precarious income with little in reserve, notably raiding his pension to help pay for a wedding.
Nationally we have been doing the same. We used to have quite sound pensions as a nation. The raiding of these for taxes by Brown or NI for Osborne (affecting several million private sector workers too), and artificially depressed bond rates are all ways of raiding savings to pay for current expenditure.
Indeed. Since 2009 we have been engaged in an unprecedented experiment in exotic monetary policy namely ultra low interest rates. This has caused two gigantic asset bubbles: one that 99% of people understand- housing, one that 95% don't even know exists- bond prices. The former is inflating house prices the other the cost of pensions. One is visible on Right Move one is effectively invisble, but bending industry out if shape ( see Tata). Both have the same solution to lower house prices and lower pension costs. RAISE BLOODY INTEREST RATES. In the meantime public sector pensions are immune from this catastrophe due to the munificence of the taxpayer, a fact which seriously cheeses some of us off as so few seem to have any bleedin clue how staggeringly privileged they are.
A far bigger factor in next week's elections, rather than the Livingstone fiasco, will be 5 million public sector workers discovering this week that their pay has been cut by Osbrone's very stealth tax.
I just knew he shouldn't have called it the Stealth Tax, it just sounds bad!
Wait till they retire and find, despite paying into the NHS Pension scheme for 40 years that they get £31 a week less state pension than someone who has been on benefits all their life. 0% of Public sector workers who paid into an Occupational Pension will get £150 OAP
And not to forget Brown's pension tax has been roundly shafting some of us for 19 unrepealed years. The public sector do not know they are born when it comes to pensions. A million fucking quid at 65 with 50% spouse pension at RPI uprate ( so a "civil service pension") buys you under £27k this week. Welcome to the real world and stop whinging.
RCS linked to an interesting piece on an American living on a precarious income with little in reserve, notably raiding his pension to help pay for a wedding.
Nationally we have been doing the same. We used to have quite sound pensions as a nation. The raiding of these for taxes by Brown or NI for Osborne (affecting several million private sector workers too), and artificially depressed bond rates are all ways of raiding savings to pay for current expenditure.
On a related note savings interest rates seem to be falling across the board.
My wife's identical twin sister arrived for a visit last friday. Within 24 hours, my wife's soft Glaswegian accent - unheard for so many years - was BACK!
Even Heidi caught the bug and would go "WOOF - Jimmy." (that last bit is not strictly true)
Canvass a hundred houses, 30 say they will vote for you, 30 say they wont vote for you, 20 say they might vote for you and 20 say they dont vote/ not interested.
For local elections, you would be getting TONS of people giving responses like "sorry I don't vote in council elections", "I didn't even know there were elections next week", "we just had a bloody election last year, leave me alone til 2020", etc.
Heads up.... My so far information, is that the local elections are going to more or less mirror the GE results last year in vote percentage for labour and con... Very small sub sample.... A combination of canvassing results, and other source of information that i cant go into.
Ha, atleast make your bogus canvassing anecdotes a bit believable.
Apart from anything else, half the people who voted in the GE will not even be voting in the locals, so that alone means canvass returns will not be coming close to "mirroring" the 2015 data.
FWIW Notme's canvassing reports last year were spot on.
I did some canvassing earlier on this week, and I have to admit, I'm feeling a bit more confident than I was before I went canvassing.
I was expecting mass Con to UKIP switching, but it's looking good for the Blues in West Yorkshire.
Heads up.... My so far information, is that the local elections are going to more or less mirror the GE results last year in vote percentage for labour and con... Very small sub sample.... A combination of canvassing results, and other source of information that i cant go into.
Ha, atleast make your bogus canvassing anecdotes a bit believable.
Apart from anything else, half the people who voted in the GE will not even be voting in the locals, so that alone means canvass returns will not be coming close to "mirroring" the 2015 data.
First of all... My 'bogus canvassing anecdotes' nailed Cons at 36/37 a couple of weeks before last GE. And it seems your experience of canvassing might be somewhat limited.
While it is true the turnout will be about half that of a GE, when canvassed a voter doesnt ordinarily tell you if they are not going to vote at the local but would at a General. They usually just dont go out and vote on the day.
Canvass a hundred houses, 30 say they will vote for you, 30 say they wont vote for you, 20 say they might vote for you and 20 say they dont vote/ not interested.
That doesnt really change from General election to local election. When you canvass you get the same responses, assuming they havent switched sides. They just on the day dont bother.
But hey, who am I, i've only canvassed every year for twenty years.
I agree. Turnout will be half but you take the split. Often people compare it to the wrong figures, mind. I always try to find corroboration from the other parties. Our local Labour party know the Tory figures better than we do!
'At the expense of losing £30+ per week from their state pension compared to those who never contributed to a pension.'
Under the old system those that had contributed zero to a pension still received more via additional handouts compared with people that had contributed.
Canvass a hundred houses, 30 say they will vote for you, 30 say they wont vote for you, 20 say they might vote for you and 20 say they dont vote/ not interested.
For local elections, you would be getting TONS of people giving responses like "sorry I don't vote in council elections", "I didn't even know there were elections next week", etc.
Heads up.... My so far information, is that the local elections are going to more or less mirror the GE results last year in vote percentage for labour and con... Very small sub sample.... A combination of canvassing results, and other source of information that i cant go into.
Ha, atleast make your bogus canvassing anecdotes a bit believable.
Apart from anything else, half the people who voted in the GE will not even be voting in the locals, so that alone means canvass returns will not be coming close to "mirroring" the 2015 data.
First of all... My 'bogus canvassing anecdotes' nailed Cons at 36/37 a couple of weeks before last GE. And it seems your experience of canvassing might be somewhat limited.
While it is true the turnout will be about half that of a GE, when canvassed a voter doesnt ordinarily tell you if they are not going to vote at the local but would at a General. They usually just dont go out and vote on the day.
Canvass a hundred houses, 30 say they will vote for you, 30 say they wont vote for you, 20 say they might vote for you and 20 say they dont vote/ not interested.
That doesnt really change from General election to local election. When you canvass you get the same responses, assuming they havent switched sides. They just on the day dont bother.
But hey, who am I, i've only canvassed every year for twenty years.
Funnily enough, when I was canvassing this week, I met several people who said they'd vote at a GE but weren't voting this time. Perhaps the rather dismal state of all the main parties in England is enabling them to be more vocal.
FWIW, I found very few being willing to be open about supporting Labour but recorded plenty of generic 'against's. If I had to guess, I think that UKIP will do better than expected in England.
'At the expense of losing £30+ per week from their state pension compared to those who never contributed to a pension.'
Under the old system those that had contributed zero to a pension still received more via additional handouts compared with people that had contributed.
Heads up.... My so far information, is that the local elections are going to more or less mirror the GE results last year in vote percentage for labour and con... Very small sub sample.... A combination of canvassing results, and other source of information that i cant go into.
Ha, atleast make your bogus canvassing anecdotes a bit believable.
Apart from anything else, half the people who voted in the GE will not even be voting in the locals, so that alone means canvass returns will not be coming close to "mirroring" the 2015 data.
FWIW Notme's canvassing reports last year were spot on.
I did some canvassing earlier on this week, and I have to admit, I'm feeling a bit more confident than I was before I went canvassing.
I was expecting mass Con to UKIP switching, but it's looking good for the Blues in West Yorkshire.
UKIP have done quite poorly in recent by elections. I think few kippers are working the local or devolved elections, they are working for Brexit.
Heads up.... My so far information, is that the local elections are going to more or less mirror the GE results last year in vote percentage for labour and con... Very small sub sample.... A combination of canvassing results, and other source of information that i cant go into.
Ha, atleast make your bogus canvassing anecdotes a bit believable.
Apart from anything else, half the people who voted in the GE will not even be voting in the locals, so that alone means canvass returns will not be coming close to "mirroring" the 2015 data.
FWIW Notme's canvassing reports last year were spot on.
I did some canvassing earlier on this week, and I have to admit, I'm feeling a bit more confident than I was before I went canvassing.
I was expecting mass Con to UKIP switching, but it's looking good for the Blues in West Yorkshire.
Quite, i was privy to info across areas of the north west that predicted every gain and loss, though I didnt believe it, some of it was judgement call, but the guy who did it got them all right.
Lol who are these tories ramping about Zac carrying Merton and Camden they will lose them big margins Zac is seen as rich and and of touch no way will the wwc in these areas vote for him, Bojo was able to win some wwc class because he was seen as politically uncorrect Zac will romp home in the affluent tory suburbs and thats it.
Merton will not be lost be big margin, and I have explained why. I could be wrong but data saying it is winnable and I think we will win it. Camden, 2nd hand info. You might be right. But Barnet and Camden, if poll was held tomorrow would go blue.
Heads up.... My so far information, is that the local elections are going to more or less mirror the GE results last year in vote percentage for labour and con... Very small sub sample.... A combination of canvassing results, and other source of information that i cant go into.
Its goodbye Corbyn if that's the case.
Not unless Labour lose the London mayoral election.
Labour will keep First Minister in Wales because Plaid/Labour will always get 30 out of 60 seats. Scotland they have written off. I agree, London Mayoralty would be big loss for Corbyn, but he would still survive I reckon. Khan is clearly absolutely odds on.
This...and they will point to this as the Corbyism project working.
Does Corbyn even know where Wales is? I sort of imagine that he has a map with 'There be dragons' marked on it for that part of the isles
In a binary choice between Carwyn and the Tory leader here I'd vote Carwyn. I won't as a) the local Labour candidate as far as I can see doesn't seem to think we need an economy, b) it would mean supporting Corbyn by proxy and I'd rather stab my eyes out with knitting needles.
Heads up.... My so far information, is that the local elections are going to more or less mirror the GE results last year in vote percentage for labour and con... Very small sub sample.... A combination of canvassing results, and other source of information that i cant go into.
Ha, atleast make your bogus canvassing anecdotes a bit believable.
Apart from anything else, half the people who voted in the GE will not even be voting in the locals, so that alone means canvass returns will not be coming close to "mirroring" the 2015 data.
FWIW Notme's canvassing reports last year were spot on.
I did some canvassing earlier on this week, and I have to admit, I'm feeling a bit more confident than I was before I went canvassing.
I was expecting mass Con to UKIP switching, but it's looking good for the Blues in West Yorkshire.
Heads up.... My so far information, is that the local elections are going to more or less mirror the GE results last year in vote percentage for labour and con... Very small sub sample.... A combination of canvassing results, and other source of information that i cant go into.
Ha, atleast make your bogus canvassing anecdotes a bit believable.
Apart from anything else, half the people who voted in the GE will not even be voting in the locals, so that alone means canvass returns will not be coming close to "mirroring" the 2015 data.
FWIW Notme's canvassing reports last year were spot on.
I did some canvassing earlier on this week, and I have to admit, I'm feeling a bit more confident than I was before I went canvassing.
I was expecting mass Con to UKIP switching, but it's looking good for the Blues in West Yorkshire.
Quite, i was privy to info across areas of the north west that predicted every gain and loss, though I didnt believe it, some of it was judgement call, but the guy who did it got them all right.
The canvassing is good, its all about trend.....
I'll never forget IOS mocking you, Marquee Mark, and myself for our canvassing reports.
Heads up.... My so far information, is that the local elections are going to more or less mirror the GE results last year in vote percentage for labour and con... Very small sub sample.... A combination of canvassing results, and other source of information that i cant go into.
That would be 7% swing from Labour to Conservative compared to the 2012 local elections which is the correct comparison to make according to all the experts such as Rallings & Thrasher. 2012 projected national share was Lab 39%, Con 31%.
Yup, 2012 was peak omnishambles, i expected the bad few months for the government to have filtered through, but no, things are as solid as the run up to GE last year.
If we are going to get this year what we got in 2012, it will be a labour bloodbath...
I'm glad you say so. I have a mix of figures from different parties and I agree. I don't want to say too much about Tory position either, but happy to communicate Labour opinion.
go on.....
From my perception of rest of UK. Scotland totally traumatic night, getting walloped by SNP is already factored in, but the outside possibility of coming third to Conservatives will be psychologically devastating. Best case scenario is coming dismally second to SNP, and pipping Cons. Wales, theyll lose a couple of seats, but stay in control, could be spun as another failure at a time Labour should be making gains England local elections. Labour will hold their own in their urban areas, i doubt there are many lib dems left to pick off. In the shires though its going to be a bit messy. Will be spun as a terrible night for Labour, large net losses. Lib dems will do very well in tory areas... London, a resounding success and shows how different London is from the rest of the country.
Yes, I agree. If people vote as they say, Tories are 2nd in Scotland. Labour have massive majorities in metros, they will get a swing against them. Libs may do better, they are doing well in by-elections. London is different. I won't say too much until Tuesday at earliest but Labour currently saying turnout might be an issue for them and sub-35% could be a problem. Old and right vote, young and left don't. Hope this stays true.
FWIW, I found very few being willing to be open about supporting Labour but recorded plenty of generic 'against's. If I had to guess, I think that UKIP will do better than expected in England.
Surely, if the canvassing operation in your area is any good, you would not be getting sent to many Labour-sympathisers' houses anyway.
When I did a fair bit of regular canvassing on the Wirral a few years ago, the past data meant we had a reasonable idea of the houses that would be "lost causes" for us, and only bothered with addresses who had shown an openness to voting Labour or who there was no data for.
Heads up.... My so far information, is that the local elections are going to more or less mirror the GE results last year in vote percentage for labour and con... Very small sub sample.... A combination of canvassing results, and other source of information that i cant go into.
Ha, atleast make your bogus canvassing anecdotes a bit believable.
Apart from anything else, half the people who voted in the GE will not even be voting in the locals, so that alone means canvass returns will not be coming close to "mirroring" the 2015 data.
FWIW Notme's canvassing reports last year were spot on.
I did some canvassing earlier on this week, and I have to admit, I'm feeling a bit more confident than I was before I went canvassing.
I was expecting mass Con to UKIP switching, but it's looking good for the Blues in West Yorkshire.
Quite, i was privy to info across areas of the north west that predicted every gain and loss, though I didnt believe it, some of it was judgement call, but the guy who did it got them all right.
The canvassing is good, its all about trend.....
I'll never forget IOS mocking you, Marquee Mark, and myself for our canvassing reports.
Was one of the highlight of the general election.
Is also a reminder to all about hubris.
I haven't learned my lesson on that score, and I'm fairly certain I mocked any hint of Tory confidence from canvassing reports, if less stridently than IOS.
Heads up.... My so far information, is that the local elections are going to more or less mirror the GE results last year in vote percentage for labour and con... Very small sub sample.... A combination of canvassing results, and other source of information that i cant go into.
Ha, atleast make your bogus canvassing anecdotes a bit believable.
Apart from anything else, half the people who voted in the GE will not even be voting in the locals, so that alone means canvass returns will not be coming close to "mirroring" the 2015 data.
FWIW Notme's canvassing reports last year were spot on.
I did some canvassing earlier on this week, and I have to admit, I'm feeling a bit more confident than I was before I went canvassing.
I was expecting mass Con to UKIP switching, but it's looking good for the Blues in West Yorkshire.
Oi - bugger off back to Sheffield!
(But seriously, which part of W Yorks?)
Sadly there's no chance of the Tories taking any seats in Sheffield, we're going to be outperformed by the Lib Dems.
I'll drop you a message about what area in particular.
Heads up.... My so far information, is that the local elections are going to more or less mirror the GE results last year in vote percentage for labour and con... Very small sub sample.... A combination of canvassing results, and other source of information that i cant go into.
Its goodbye Corbyn if that's the case.
Not unless Labour lose the London mayoral election.
Labour will keep First Minister in Wales because Plaid/Labour will always get 30 out of 60 seats. Scotland they have written off. I agree, London Mayoralty would be big loss for Corbyn, but he would still survive I reckon. Khan is clearly absolutely odds on.
This...and they will point to this as the Corbyism project working.
Does Corbyn even know where Wales is? I sort of imagine that he has a map with 'There be dragons' marked on it for that part of the isles
Very good. Corbyn has no idea how to run a party. He has no gravitas, no organisational skills, no leadership skills. He has no control over his own MPs, look at what Ian Austin said today. If a Tory MP said that he would be sacked and there might even be a by-election. I'm loving the Corbyn experiment, it must continue to fail.
Canvass a hundred houses, 30 say they will vote for you, 30 say they wont vote for you, 20 say they might vote for you and 20 say they dont vote/ not interested.
For local elections, you would be getting TONS of people giving responses like "sorry I don't vote in council elections", "I didn't even know there were elections next week", "we just had a bloody election last year, leave me alone til 2020", etc.
Actually you dont. You do get responses about not knowing about elections happening, but not as often as you think. "i dont vote in local elections" is quite a rare response. Though we know fine well if they do or dont. The marked register (list of people who have voted) is integrated into canvassing records.
This isnt amateur hour we know what we are doing, and on the very small sub sample (which is not all based on canvassing results).. We will see the normal impact of disproportionate turnout hurting the party in power, which makes the results even more stunning. I am confident that the Cons will keep the lead in voter percentage in the locals.
In my part of Oxford, there has been almost zero activity. No canvassing from any party. Only 1 leaflet (Labour) - and that was only about the council vote. Nothing from anyone about the PCC election.
Merton will not be lost be big margin, and I have explained why. I could be wrong but data saying it is winnable and I think we will win it. Camden, 2nd hand info. You might be right. But Barnet and Camden, if poll was held tomorrow would go blue.
Yes Barnet and Camden could go blue in assembly election due to big tory support in barnet, but camden it self will vote for Labour and Khan probably by a big margin, whilst hampstead is very wealthy and jewish st.prancras and holborn will surely have a big lead for labour?
FWIW, I found very few being willing to be open about supporting Labour but recorded plenty of generic 'against's. If I had to guess, I think that UKIP will do better than expected in England.
Surely, if the canvassing operation in your area is any good, you would not be getting sent to many Labour-sympathisers' houses anyway.
When I did a fair bit of regular canvassing on the Wirral a few years ago, the past data meant we had a reasonable idea of the houses that would be "lost causes" for us, and only bothered with addresses who had shown an openness to voting Labour or who there was no data for.
No, this was an area we'd not canvassed for some years so we did a full every-house operation.
FWIW, I found very few being willing to be open about supporting Labour but recorded plenty of generic 'against's. If I had to guess, I think that UKIP will do better than expected in England.
Surely, if the canvassing operation in your area is any good, you would not be getting sent to many Labour-sympathisers' houses anyway.
When I did a fair bit of regular canvassing on the Wirral a few years ago, the past data meant we had a reasonable idea of the houses that would be "lost causes" for us, and only bothered with addresses who had shown an openness to voting Labour or who there was no data for.
That's a lazy position to take, though I understand why. Politics is in a state of flux, there are a lot of people changing their minds. Things are up for grabs. Labour has attracted new voters with its leap to the left, but the left of centre middle ground's head is spinning round. Corbyn/Mcdonell is causing anxiety out there, anxiety amongst our normal supporters to motivate them to come out, and amongst swing voters...
Heads up.... My so far information, is that the local elections are going to more or less mirror the GE results last year in vote percentage for labour and con... Very small sub sample.... A combination of canvassing results, and other source of information that i cant go into.
Ha, atleast make your bogus canvassing anecdotes a bit believable.
Apart from anything else, half the people who voted in the GE will not even be voting in the locals, so that alone means canvass returns will not be coming close to "mirroring" the 2015 data.
FWIW Notme's canvassing reports last year were spot on.
I did some canvassing earlier on this week, and I have to admit, I'm feeling a bit more confident than I was before I went canvassing.
I was expecting mass Con to UKIP switching, but it's looking good for the Blues in West Yorkshire.
Quite, i was privy to info across areas of the north west that predicted every gain and loss, though I didnt believe it, some of it was judgement call, but the guy who did it got them all right.
The canvassing is good, its all about trend.....
I'll never forget IOS mocking you, Marquee Mark, and myself for our canvassing reports.
Was one of the highlight of the general election.
Is also a reminder to all about hubris.
I haven't learned my lesson on that score, and I'm fairly certain I mocked any hint of Tory confidence from canvassing reports, if less stridently than IOS.
Oh well, I'll learn one day.
It's fine, I had my own doubts.
It was bizarre, you'd have a really good canvassing session/day, you'd feel really confident about the Tories being comfortably the largest party, then you'd see some polls showing it neck and neck/moving towards Labour and you'd think, are our canvassing skills that crap, and feeling quite downbeat, especially with IOS coming on and boasting about Labour's awesome ground game.
FWIW, I found very few being willing to be open about supporting Labour but recorded plenty of generic 'against's. If I had to guess, I think that UKIP will do better than expected in England.
Surely, if the canvassing operation in your area is any good, you would not be getting sent to many Labour-sympathisers' houses anyway.
When I did a fair bit of regular canvassing on the Wirral a few years ago, the past data meant we had a reasonable idea of the houses that would be "lost causes" for us, and only bothered with addresses who had shown an openness to voting Labour or who there was no data for.
I certainly feel silent Kippers and UKIP corroborate. I don't know if it is blarney. My favourite was an 80 year called Doris, said gently to me...I'm voting BNP. Butter wouldn't melt in her mouth.
In my part of Oxford, there has been almost zero activity. No canvassing from any party. Only 1 leaflet (Labour) - and that was only about the council vote. Nothing from anyone about the PCC election.
Can't remember it being this quiet in the past.
In Leics we only have PCC elections. Apart from polling cards we have had no information from any candidate or body that there is an election. We have 4 candidates according to google, but hard to tell what differences they plan to make. The only interesting tit bit is that the UKIP candidate was sacked as a Tory councillor some years ago for watching porn videos on a council laptop.
Heads up.... My so far information, is that the local elections are going to more or less mirror the GE results last year in vote percentage for labour and con... Very small sub sample.... A combination of canvassing results, and other source of information that i cant go into.
Ha, atleast make your bogus canvassing anecdotes a bit believable.
Apart from anything else, half the people who voted in the GE will not even be voting in the locals, so that alone means canvass returns will not be coming close to "mirroring" the 2015 data.
FWIW Notme's canvassing reports last year were spot on.
I did some canvassing earlier on this week, and I have to admit, I'm feeling a bit more confident than I was before I went canvassing.
I was expecting mass Con to UKIP switching, but it's looking good for the Blues in West Yorkshire.
Quite, i was privy to info across areas of the north west that predicted every gain and loss, though I didnt believe it, some of it was judgement call, but the guy who did it got them all right.
The canvassing is good, its all about trend.....
I'll never forget IOS mocking you, Marquee Mark, and myself for our canvassing reports.
Was one of the highlight of the general election.
Is also a reminder to all about hubris.
I haven't learned my lesson on that score, and I'm fairly certain I mocked any hint of Tory confidence from canvassing reports, if less stridently than IOS.
Oh well, I'll learn one day.
It's fine, I had my own doubts.
It was bizarre, you'd have a really good canvassing session/day, you'd feel really confident about the Tories being comfortably the largest party, then you'd see some polls showing it neck and neck/moving towards Labour and you'd think, are our canvassing skills that crap, and feeling quite downbeat.
*THIS* was the GE campaign for pretty much all of tory canvassers.... The party knew what was going on, but they also got blinded by the polls. A seat i'm near that trebled its tory majority, was supposed to be an easy labour gain on pretty much every poll from 2011, including pretty much the ones on the day.
Merton will not be lost be big margin, and I have explained why. I could be wrong but data saying it is winnable and I think we will win it. Camden, 2nd hand info. You might be right. But Barnet and Camden, if poll was held tomorrow would go blue.
Yes Barnet and Camden could go blue in assembly election due to big tory support in barnet, but camden it self will vote for Labour and Khan probably by a big margin, whilst hampstead is very wealthy and jewish st.prancras and holborn will surely have a big lead for labour?
By the way any canvassing in Ealing.
Tory Assembly Member man in Ealing is superb. We lost it last time when we shouldn't have last time and Labour candidate is embroiled in local spats and is hiding. His Councillors don't back him. Apparently he is a big private landlord, greedy!
Labour tell me they might lose it. We're confident but I haven't seen our (Tory) figures in depth.
Heads up.... My so far information, is that the local elections are going to more or less mirror the GE results last year in vote percentage for labour and con... Very small sub sample.... A combination of canvassing results, and other source of information that i cant go into.
Ha, atleast make your bogus canvassing anecdotes a bit believable.
Apart from anything else, half the people who voted in the GE will not even be voting in the locals, so that alone means canvass returns will not be coming close to "mirroring" the 2015 data.
FWIW Notme's canvassing reports last year were spot on.
I did some canvassing earlier on this week, and I have to admit, I'm feeling a bit more confident than I was before I went canvassing.
I was expecting mass Con to UKIP switching, but it's looking good for the Blues in West Yorkshire.
Quite, i was privy to info across areas of the north west that predicted every gain and loss, though I didnt believe it, some of it was judgement call, but the guy who did it got them all right.
The canvassing is good, its all about trend.....
I'll never forget IOS mocking you, Marquee Mark, and myself for our canvassing reports.
Was one of the highlight of the general election.
Is also a reminder to all about hubris.
I haven't learned my lesson on that score, and I'm fairly certain I mocked any hint of Tory confidence from canvassing reports, if less stridently than IOS.
Oh well, I'll learn one day.
It's fine, I had my own doubts.
It was bizarre, you'd have a really good canvassing session/day, you'd feel really confident about the Tories being comfortably the largest party, then you'd see some polls showing it neck and neck/moving towards Labour and you'd think, are our canvassing skills that crap, and feeling quite downbeat, especially with IOS coming on and boasting about Labour's awesome ground game.
Well, my friend in Wirral West was one of the few Labour canvassers in the country who proved to be TOO pessimistic.
She was convinced in the early evening of the election that they'd lost the seat, because during the day during the GOTV tons of people who were marked down as definite Labour voters were saying things like "it's a private ballot, I don't want to say who I'm voting for".
In the event, it turned out to be one of Labour's few gains.
Heads up.... My so far information, is that the local elections are going to more or less mirror the GE results last year in vote percentage for labour and con... Very small sub sample.... A combination of canvassing results, and other source of information that i cant go into.
Ha, atleast make your bogus canvassing anecdotes a bit believable.
Apart from anything else, half the people who voted in the GE will not even be voting in the locals, so that alone means canvass returns will not be coming close to "mirroring" the 2015 data.
FWIW Notme's canvassing reports last year were spot on.
I did some canvassing earlier on this week, and I have to admit, I'm feeling a bit more confident than I was before I went canvassing.
I was expecting mass Con to UKIP switching, but it's looking good for the Blues in West Yorkshire.
Quite, i was privy to info across areas of the north west that predicted every gain and loss, though I didnt believe it, some of it was judgement call, but the guy who did it got them all right.
The canvassing is good, its all about trend.....
I'll never forget IOS mocking you, Marquee Mark, and myself for our canvassing reports.
Was one of the highlight of the general election.
Is also a reminder to all about hubris.
I haven't learned my lesson on that score, and I'm fairly certain I mocked any hint of Tory confidence from canvassing reports, if less stridently than IOS.
Oh well, I'll learn one day.
It's fine, I had my own doubts.
It was bizarre, you'd have a really good canvassing session/day, you'd feel really confident about the Tories being comfortably the largest party, then you'd see some polls showing it neck and neck/moving towards Labour and you'd think, are our canvassing skills that crap, and feeling quite downbeat, especially with IOS coming on and boasting about Labour's awesome ground game.
Labour have less people on the streets. <momentum won't canvass and some Blairites have stopped doing it. I think Blues have as many activist currently. Libs and UKIP less than before.
1) There's an awful lot of voters that need reassuring that the EU Referendum isn't next week, which makes me think turnout is going to be higher than expected in that.
2) The Tory Party member/activists seem quite united, there's no rancour, not when there are council seats and Police Commissioner elections to be won.
Heads up.... My so far information, is that the local elections are going to more or less mirror the GE results last year in vote percentage for labour and con... Very small sub sample.... A combination of canvassing results, and other source of information that i cant go into.
Ha, atleast make your bogus canvassing anecdotes a bit believable.
Apart from anything else, half the people who voted in the GE will not even be voting in the locals, so that alone means canvass returns will not be coming close to "mirroring" the 2015 data.
FWIW Notme's canvassing reports last year were spot on.
I did some canvassing earlier on this week, and I have to admit, I'm feeling a bit more confident than I was before I went canvassing.
I was expecting mass Con to UKIP switching, but it's looking good for the Blues in West Yorkshire.
Quite, i was privy to info across areas of the north west that predicted every gain and loss, though I didnt believe it, some of it was judgement call, but the guy who did it got them all right.
The canvassing is good, its all about trend.....
I'll never forget IOS mocking you, Marquee Mark, and myself for our canvassing reports.
Was one of the highlight of the general election.
Is also a reminder to all about hubris.
I haven't learned my lesson on that score, and I'm fairly certain I mocked any hint of Tory confidence from canvassing reports, if less stridently than IOS.
Oh well, I'll learn one day.
It's fine, I had my own doubts.
It was bizarre, you'd have a really good canvassing session/day, you'd feel really confident about the Tories being comfortably the largest party, then you'd see some polls showing it neck and neck/moving towards Labour and you'd think, are our canvassing skills that crap, and feeling quite downbeat, especially with IOS coming on and boasting about Labour's awesome ground game.
Heads up.... My so far information, is that the local elections are going to more or less mirror the GE results last year in vote percentage for labour and con... Very small sub sample.... A combination of canvassing results, and other source of information that i cant go into.
Ha, atleast make your bogus canvassing anecdotes a bit believable.
Apart from anything else, half the people who voted in the GE will not even be voting in the locals, so that alone means canvass returns will not be coming close to "mirroring" the 2015 data.
FWIW Notme's canvassing reports last year were spot on.
I did some canvassing earlier on this week, and I have to admit, I'm feeling a bit more confident than I was before I went canvassing.
I was expecting mass Con to UKIP switching, but it's looking good for the Blues in West Yorkshire.
Quite, i was privy to info across areas of the north west that predicted every gain and loss, though I didnt believe it, some of it was judgement call, but the guy who did it got them all right.
The canvassing is good, its all about trend.....
I'll never forget IOS mocking you, Marquee Mark, and myself for our canvassing reports.
Was one of the highlight of the general election.
Is also a reminder to all about hubris.
I haven't learned my lesson on that score, and I'm fairly certain I mocked any hint of Tory confidence from canvassing reports, if less stridently than IOS.
Oh well, I'll learn one day.
It's fine, I had my own doubts.
It was bizarre, you'd have a really good canvassing session/day, you'd feel really confident about the Tories being comfortably the largest party, then you'd see some polls showing it neck and neck/moving towards Labour and you'd think, are our canvassing skills that crap, and feeling quite downbeat, especially with IOS coming on and boasting about Labour's awesome ground game.
Labour have less people on the streets.
They only do "online activism"....
They enjoy that more. They are big tele-canvasser, but too sanctimonious these days.
'Under the old system those that had contributed zero to a pension still received more via additional handouts compared with people that had contributed.'
'Thats not OK either though is it?'
Agree, but that's the crazy welfare system we have where scroungers are rewarded and the thrifty penalized.
Heads up.... My so far information, is that the local elections are going to more or less mirror the GE results last year in vote percentage for labour and con... Very small sub sample.... A combination of canvassing results, and other source of information that i cant go into.
Ha, atleast make your bogus canvassing anecdotes a bit believable.
Apart from anything else, half the people who voted in the GE will not even be voting in the locals, so that alone means canvass returns will not be coming close to "mirroring" the 2015 data.
Fhing, but it's looking good for the Blues in West Yorkshire.
Quite, i was privy to info across areas of the north west that predicted every gain and loss, though I didnt believe it, some of it was judgement call, but the guy who did it got them all right.
The canvassing is good, its all about trend.....
Is also a reminder to all about hubris.
I haven't learned my lesson on that score, and I'm fairly certain I mocked any hint of Tory confidence from canvassing reports, if less stridently than IOS.
Oh well, I'll learn one day.
It's fine, I had my own doubts.
It was bizarre, you'd have a really good canvassing session/day, you'd feel really confident about the Tories being comfortably the largest party, then you'd see some polls showing it neck and neck/moving towards Labour and you'd think, are our canvassing skills that crap, and feeling quite downbeat, especially with IOS coming on and boasting about Labour's awesome ground game.
She was convinced in the early evening of the election that they'd lost the seat, because during the day during the GOTV tons of people who were marked down as definite Labour voters were saying things like "it's a private ballot, I don't want to say who I'm voting for".
In the event, it turned out to be one of Labour's few gains.
Jesus... You dont reopen negotiations with your pledges... It's like the salesman asking the customer if he's really sure he wants to buy that new car he's come into the showroom to purchase.
Also, when you are eliciting information, I tend to find that it works if you are more subtle. Sometimes people can see it as a confrontation if you out and out ask who they are voting for. I find along the lines of "can we rely on your support" a less confrontational way, and if they give an opaque answer, do a follow up asking them if they have voted conservative in the past. If they say no, its usually thank you very much, sorry for wasting your time.
1) There's an awful lot of voters that need reassuring that the EU Referendum isn't next week, which makes me think turnout is going to be higher than expected in that.
2) The Tory Party member/activists seem quite united, there's no rancour, not when there are council seats and Police Commissioner elections to be won.
You are right. I find the EU ref might bring out UKIPers next week.
In my part of Oxford, there has been almost zero activity. No canvassing from any party. Only 1 leaflet (Labour) - and that was only about the council vote. Nothing from anyone about the PCC election.
Can't remember it being this quiet in the past.
Not surprising, Oxford is a Labour stronghold these days.
Heads up.... My so far information, is that the local elections are going to more or less mirror the GE results last year in vote percentage for labour and con... Very small sub sample.... A combination of canvassing results, and other source of information that i cant go into.
That would be 7% swing from Labour to Conservative compared to the 2012 local elections which is the correct comparison to make according to all the experts such as Rallings & Thrasher. 2012 projected national share was Lab 39%, Con 31%.
Yup, 2012 was peak omnishambles, i expected the bad few months for the government to have filtered through, but no, things are as solid as the run up to GE last year.
If we are going to get this year what we got in 2012, it will be a labour bloodbath...
I'm glad you say so. I have a mix of figures from different parties and I agree. I don't want to say too much about Tory position either, but happy to communicate Labour opinion.
go on.....
From my perception of rest of UK. Scotland totally traumatic night, getting walloped by SNP is already factored in, but the outside possibility of coming third to Conservatives will be psychologically devastating. Best case scenario is coming dismally second to SNP, and pipping Cons. Wales, theyll lose a couple of seats, but stay in control, could be spun as another failure at a time Labour should be making gains England local elections. Labour will hold their own in their urban areas, i doubt there are many lib dems left to pick off. In the shires though its going to be a bit messy. Will be spun as a terrible night for Labour, large net losses. Lib dems will do very well in tory areas... London, a resounding success and shows how different London is from the rest of the country.
It's possible the percentages in Wales could be something like Labour 30%, Plaid 12%. Usually that wouldn't deliver a majority for the two parties but the Welsh electoral system is a bit odd.
(Jeremy Corbyn) has no control over his own MPs, look at what Ian Austin said today. If a Tory MP said that he would be sacked and there might even be a by-election.
What statement by Austin are you referring to? And what office could he be sacked from? As for a by-election?! I think I must have missed whatever he said that was so scandalous that a Tory who said something equivalent might be forced to take the Chiltern Hundreds.
Tory Assembly Member man in Ealing is superb. We lost it last time when we shouldn't have last time and Labour candidate is embroiled in local spats and is hiding. His Councillors don't back him. Apparently he is a big private landlord, greedy!
Labour tell me they might lose it. We're confident but I haven't seen our (Tory) figures in depth. What are you saying Tories ahead in Ealing or ealing and hillingdon? They cant be "confident" in Ealing unless the polls are waaaaaaaaaaaaaaay out! If Zac is ahead in ealing thenn hes won surely?
Heads up.... My so far information, is that the local elections are going to more or less mirror the GE results last year in vote percentage for labour and con... Very small sub sample.... A combination of canvassing results, and other source of information that i cant go into.
That would be 7% swing from Labour to Conservative compared to the 2012 local elections which is the correct comparison to make according to all the experts such as Rallings & Thrasher. 2012 projected national share was Lab 39%, Con 31%.
Yup, 2012 was peak omnishambles, i expected the bad few months for the government to have filtered through, but no, things are as solid as the run up to GE last year.
If we are going to get this year what we got in 2012, it will be a labour bloodbath...
I'm glad you say so. I have a mix of figures from different parties and I agree. I don't want to say too much about Tory position either, but happy to communicate Labour opinion.
go on.....
From my perception of rest of UK. Scotland totally traumatic night, getting walloped by SNP is already factored in, but the outside possibility of coming third to Conservatives will be psychologically devastating. Best case scenario is coming dismally second to SNP, and pipping Cons. Wales, theyll lose a couple of seats, but stay in control, could be spun as another failure at a time Labour should be making gains England local elections. Labour will hold their own in their urban areas, i doubt there are many lib dems left to pick off. In the shires though its going to be a bit messy. Will be spun as a terrible night for Labour, large net losses. Lib dems will do very well in tory areas... London, a resounding success and shows how different London is from the rest of the country.
It's possible the percentages in Wales could be something like Labour 30%, Plaid 12%. Usually that wouldn't deliver a majority for the two parties but the Welsh electoral system is a bit odd.
Plaid are doing MUCH better than that in the polls aren't they?
Comments
It is a modest decrease in pay for public sector workers in nominal terms, more significant in real terms. The increase in employers NI contribution is quite significant for the NHS as a cost pressure.
My so far information, is that the local elections are going to more or less mirror the GE results last year in vote percentage for labour and con... Very small sub sample.... A combination of canvassing results, and other source of information that i cant go into.
If we are going to get this year what we got in 2012, it will be a labour bloodbath...
It'll be the last fun state to watch in a while, unless you're dying to know if Trump can manage that 15th delegate in Oregon.
And part of me wants this chaos to continue to another few years - so that Labour is destroyed completely.
Nationally we have been doing the same. We used to have quite sound pensions as a nation. The raiding of these for taxes by Brown or NI for Osborne (affecting several million private sector workers too), and artificially depressed bond rates are all ways of raiding savings to pay for current expenditure.
'Wait till they retire and find, despite paying into the NHS Pension scheme for 40 years that they get £31 a week less state pension than someone who has been on benefits all their life. 0% of Public sector workers who paid into an Occupational Pension will get £150 '
You should have worked in the private sector and experienced your pension being trashed by Gordon Brown.Public sector workers still get pension deals people in the private sector can only dream about.
Apart from anything else, half the people who voted in the GE will not even be voting in the locals, so that alone means canvass returns will not be coming close to "mirroring" the 2015 data.
Nobody who joined the NHS pension scheme and saved a tiny bit of NI expected their state pension would be up to £35 a week less than someone who couldnt be arsed to even join an occupational pension.
Whats RPI?
Culturally, for someone as prominent as the author, it would be difficult not to have a decent wedding for your daughter, even if it meant cashing out a small fund.
From my perception of rest of UK.
Scotland totally traumatic night, getting walloped by SNP is already factored in, but the outside possibility of coming third to Conservatives will be psychologically devastating. Best case scenario is coming dismally second to SNP, and pipping Cons.
Wales, theyll lose a couple of seats, but stay in control, could be spun as another failure at a time Labour should be making gains
England local elections. Labour will hold their own in their urban areas, i doubt there are many lib dems left to pick off. In the shires though its going to be a bit messy. Will be spun as a terrible night for Labour, large net losses. Lib dems will do very well in tory areas...
London, a resounding success and shows how different London is from the rest of the country.
Somehow I don't think anything is bigger than Bobby Knight endorsing Trump.
While it is true the turnout will be about half that of a GE, when canvassed a voter doesnt ordinarily tell you if they are not going to vote at the local but would at a General. They usually just dont go out and vote on the day.
Canvass a hundred houses, 30 say they will vote for you, 30 say they wont vote for you, 20 say they might vote for you and 20 say they dont vote/ not interested.
That doesnt really change from General election to local election. When you canvass you get the same responses, assuming they havent switched sides. They just on the day dont bother.
But hey, who am I, i've only canvassed every year for twenty years.
Rant over.
Even Heidi caught the bug and would go "WOOF - Jimmy." (that last bit is not strictly true)
I did some canvassing earlier on this week, and I have to admit, I'm feeling a bit more confident than I was before I went canvassing.
I was expecting mass Con to UKIP switching, but it's looking good for the Blues in West Yorkshire.
'At the expense of losing £30+ per week from their state pension compared to those who never contributed to a pension.'
Under the old system those that had contributed zero to a pension still received more via additional handouts compared with people that had contributed.
A massive reduction in their all the same
FWIW, I found very few being willing to be open about supporting Labour but recorded plenty of generic 'against's. If I had to guess, I think that UKIP will do better than expected in England.
Absolutely brilliant film.
The canvassing is good, its all about trend.....
(But seriously, which part of W Yorks?)
Was one of the highlight of the general election.
Is also a reminder to all about hubris.
I need a good movie to follow up Batman Vs Superman.
When I did a fair bit of regular canvassing on the Wirral a few years ago, the past data meant we had a reasonable idea of the houses that would be "lost causes" for us, and only bothered with addresses who had shown an openness to voting Labour or who there was no data for.
Oh well, I'll learn one day.
The original Pinewood in Buckinghamshire has an investment in it.
I'll drop you a message about what area in particular.
Actually you dont. You do get responses about not knowing about elections happening, but not as often as you think. "i dont vote in local elections" is quite a rare response. Though we know fine well if they do or dont. The marked register (list of people who have voted) is integrated into canvassing records.
This isnt amateur hour we know what we are doing, and on the very small sub sample (which is not all based on canvassing results).. We will see the normal impact of disproportionate turnout hurting the party in power, which makes the results even more stunning. I am confident that the Cons will keep the lead in voter percentage in the locals.
I saw the midnight showing last night, and watched it again today, gets better with each viewing.
Can't remember it being this quiet in the past.
Merton will not be lost be big margin, and I have explained why. I could be wrong but data saying it is winnable and I think we will win it. Camden, 2nd hand info. You might be right. But Barnet and Camden, if poll was held tomorrow would go blue.
Yes Barnet and Camden could go blue in assembly election due to big tory support in barnet, but camden it self will vote for Labour and Khan probably by a big margin, whilst hampstead is very wealthy and jewish st.prancras and holborn will surely have a big lead for labour?
By the way any canvassing in Ealing.
It was bizarre, you'd have a really good canvassing session/day, you'd feel really confident about the Tories being comfortably the largest party, then you'd see some polls showing it neck and neck/moving towards Labour and you'd think, are our canvassing skills that crap, and feeling quite downbeat, especially with IOS coming on and boasting about Labour's awesome ground game.
By the way any canvassing in Ealing.
Tory Assembly Member man in Ealing is superb. We lost it last time when we shouldn't have last time and Labour candidate is embroiled in local spats and is hiding. His Councillors don't back him. Apparently he is a big private landlord, greedy!
Labour tell me they might lose it. We're confident but I haven't seen our (Tory) figures in depth.
She was convinced in the early evening of the election that they'd lost the seat, because during the day during the GOTV tons of people who were marked down as definite Labour voters were saying things like "it's a private ballot, I don't want to say who I'm voting for".
In the event, it turned out to be one of Labour's few gains.
1) There's an awful lot of voters that need reassuring that the EU Referendum isn't next week, which makes me think turnout is going to be higher than expected in that.
2) The Tory Party member/activists seem quite united, there's no rancour, not when there are council seats and Police Commissioner elections to be won.
'Under the old system those that had contributed zero to a pension still received more via additional handouts compared with people that had contributed.'
'Thats not OK either though is it?'
Agree, but that's the crazy welfare system we have where scroungers are rewarded and the thrifty penalized.
Also, when you are eliciting information, I tend to find that it works if you are more subtle. Sometimes people can see it as a confrontation if you out and out ask who they are voting for. I find along the lines of "can we rely on your support" a less confrontational way, and if they give an opaque answer, do a follow up asking them if they have voted conservative in the past. If they say no, its usually thank you very much, sorry for wasting your time.
Tory Assembly Member man in Ealing is superb. We lost it last time when we shouldn't have last time and Labour candidate is embroiled in local spats and is hiding. His Councillors don't back him. Apparently he is a big private landlord, greedy!
Labour tell me they might lose it. We're confident but I haven't seen our (Tory) figures in depth.
What are you saying Tories ahead in Ealing or ealing and hillingdon? They cant be "confident" in Ealing unless the polls are waaaaaaaaaaaaaaay out! If Zac is ahead in ealing thenn hes won surely?
They only do "online activism"....
Lol #twitterwotwonit?