Remainers cheat like hell to win the referendum and then call Leave bad losers for pointing out the result becomes illegitimate. I'm sorry but when everyone from the Electoral Commission to George Osborne's own uncle say it's unfair, the bad loser charge falls completely flat. If you wanted the result to be accepted, you should not have broken the EU's own advice on fair referenda.
I think complaining at unfairness is fair game, if it is there, however I think the danger is focusing too much on complaining about unfairness to the point of it drowning out the actual arguments, which are superior to Remain's. It suits Remain for there to be arguments about conduct more than the issues.
“Prime Minister Netanyahu has injected himself forcefully into this debate on American foreign policy in Washington,” Zakaria said. To which the President replied, “Right.”
The CNN host continued, “Can you recall a time when a foreign head of government has done that. Is it appropriate for a foreign head of government to inject himself into an American debate?”
You couldn't make some of this level of rank stupidity and political incompetence up unless you were presently running the office of LotO.
Or a Conservative leader hoping to win an election in 2020 with an obviously divided party.
Cling onto that thought as Jezza and Co do their level best to emulate Michael Foot. I didn't think I'd see it again in my (over long) lifetime but hey who am I to complain about such a comedy repeat - surely good enough for UK Gold.
We have no deal presently, yet they are our biggest export market.
The EU still haven't nailed down a deal after how many years because they are pretty hopeless.
Obama says a trade deal is probable with the UK. Move on.
Well it takes two to tango. Who's to say the difficulties aren't in part due to the US and we would face similar challenges in getting our own deal. Secondly the reality for most countries in doing trade deals is 'what's in it for us'. Obviously most economies would be more more concerned about getting a deal with the large EU market than the UK on its own.
Many of the remainers have expressed their anger over Boris and Farage's remarks on Obama. What hasn't been said sufficiently though is just how pathetic the remarks were. Focusing on Obama was just crude it was irrelevant. All he has done is what every other US President in recent memory has done which is to urge Britain to be a voice in Europe. WWhy does that so anger people like Farage? Because it pulls the rug from under the feet of their mythical dream of an Anglosphere. How can you believe in such a political concept when none of the other countries, in particular by far the largest one, want us outside the EU.
Remainers cheat like hell to win the referendum and then call Leave bad losers for pointing out the result becomes illegitimate. I'm sorry but when everyone from the Electoral Commission to George Osborne's own uncle say it's unfair, the bad loser charge falls completely flat. If you wanted the result to be accepted, you should not have broken the EU's own advice on fair referenda.
Cue 300 jeering posts from ScottP, about Leave whiners.
Remainers cheat like hell to win the referendum and then call Leave bad losers for pointing out the result becomes illegitimate. I'm sorry but when everyone from the Electoral Commission to George Osborne's own uncle say it's unfair, the bad loser charge falls completely flat. If you wanted the result to be accepted, you should not have broken the EU's own advice on fair referenda.
I think complaining at unfairness is fair game, if it is there, however I think the danger is focusing too much on complaining about unfairness to the point of it drowning out the actual arguments, which are superior to Remain's. It suits Remain for there to be arguments about conduct more than the issues.
Remainers cheat like hell to win the referendum and then call Leave bad losers for pointing out the result becomes illegitimate. I'm sorry but when everyone from the Electoral Commission to George Osborne's own uncle say it's unfair, the bad loser charge falls completely flat. If you wanted the result to be accepted, you should not have broken the EU's own advice on fair referenda.
I think complaining at unfairness is fair game, if it is there, however I think the danger is focusing too much on complaining about unfairness to the point of it drowning out the actual arguments, which are superior to Remain's. It suits Remain for there to be arguments about conduct more than the issues.
The media conversation is being dominated by macroeconomics. That sails over most people's heads.
Leave need to bring the conversation back to real individual cost with clear cut pledges through to the next election. They also need to concentrate on the social and cultural impacts domestically. Taxes, wages, prices, welfare costs, housing, healthcare.
Obama has basically acknowledged that Brexit are correct on a US trade deal:
""It's fair to say that maybe some point down the line there might be a UK-US trade agreement...."
Why should they be denied ? They are welcome here to add to out brilliant diversity.
It is no accident that Britain started over-taking other European nations in the last 10 to 15 years precisely because new immigrants gave an added push to our economy.
This is precisely why the US has been the engine of the world. They always have had immigrants enhancing their economic growth potential.
Compare that with the stagnation of Japan. They are going backwards. As the population gets older and the working age people gets disproportionately smaller.
Watch Germany 5 years from now. No one will thank Angela Merkel then but they should.
The greatest European leader since the War bar Willy Brandt.
'a larger research project that examined the sense of attachment to place expressed by three generations of the South Asian communities in Redbridge. While the older and younger generation were very clear in the attachment they feel towards where the area where they live, the group of 30-somethings were almost universal in their dislike of the area, and more specifically what they perceived as a decline in the physical look of Redbridge, which was seen as going ‘downhill’. What was striking was how they attributed this decline to the particular material practices of the expanding Asian community, which had almost doubled in size within the previous ten years '
I'm sure Sunil would find this report very interesting.
Well, been living in our road for over 30 years (though I personally had three-year stint in Cambridge, and a brief stay in Colorado over that period), when we first moved here we were like the only Asian people in the immediate neighbourhood. Now it's the White British who are in the tiny minority, majority either Asian or East European.
Even so, it's mostly white people wot compliment mum on her award-winning front garden whenever they see her working out front as they pass by, as opposed to the friendly neighbourhood Asians.
Not a "complaint", by any means, just an observation
Remain's problem is they have played all their cards
The Brexiteers were saying that last week. Before Obama's intervention.
Plenty more ammo to come
Actually *this* is Remain's problem. This is taking shape as big corporations, big Government, and the international establishment, vs. people. 'More ammo' there may well be, but as much as some of it will find impact somewhere, it will add to the over all bullying establishment impression.
There's a poll on CapX showing 60% of Americans disagree Britain should be at the back of the queue.
Obama is completely at odd with the views of Americans on this, it seems.
Remain have to be careful here. As do the democrats.
I doubt the average American gives a damn either way. I think that imagining it is going to hurt the Democrats is fanciful to be honest. Of course the Birthers etc will rant about it as an angle to attack Obama but what's new in that.
But... if the Republicans can get the US media to bite.... "President insults best ally" is a very bad headline.
With a photo of Obama and Cameron playing golf together?
The SNP’s unchallenged supremacy might, in other circumstances, give the party licence to be bold. And if the party did not constantly have at least half an eye on creating the conditions in which another independence referendum might be held and won, the kind of policy boldness — on education, health and other issues — Scotland desperately needs might indeed be forthcoming.
When everyone has to be a winner there is little room for boldness. Difficult decisions must be delayed for fear of upsetting someone.
Sure, they are in "power" in Scotland, but too afraid of their supporters to actually wield it.
And no closer to separation than they ever were.
What crap and what "power" do you refer to. Power is still in Westminster or did your employers not tell you that. Do you suggest they follow the turkeys and charge for education or increase tax on the poor, numpty.
Could Boris be positioning himself as the leavers' Nicola Sturgeon? Perhaps he is actively trying to sabotage the leave campaign because he doesn't really believe in it but thinks it gives him a good chance of being the next Tory leader.
After this week BoJo Will Never Be Conservative Leader.
Yes ! The great grandson of Ali Kemal called Obama half-Kenyan.
There's a poll on CapX showing 60% of Americans disagree Britain should be at the back of the queue.
Obama is completely at odd with the views of Americans on this, it seems.
Remain have to be careful here. As do the democrats.
I doubt the average American gives a damn either way. I think that imagining it is going to hurt the Democrats is fanciful to be honest. Of course the Birthers etc will rant about it as an angle to attack Obama but what's new in that.
But... if the Republicans can get the US media to bite.... "President insults best ally" is a very bad headline.
With a photo of Obama and Cameron playing golf together?
"I call upon all nations to do everything they can to stop these Eurosceptic fruitcakes. Thank you. Now watch this drive." [swings] - B. H. Obama.
A narrow Remain vote would not be a vote for the UK to enter the Eurozone, if that were ever the question Leave would almost certainly win. The main consequence of a narrow Remain would be to boost UKIP, I could well see a result in 2020 something like Tories 34%, Labour 31%, UKIP 16% and a hung parliament with UKIP potentially having the balance of power
According to Electoral Calculus, your share predictions would give UKIP four seats and leave the Tories 18 short of a majority. The SNP would hold the balance of power.
If you add in the DUP and UUP to the UKIP total that would be more than Labour + SNP
Labour would also have support of SDLP, Plaid, Green and maybe Lady H.
The media conversation is being dominated by macroeconomics. That sails over most people's heads.
Leave need to bring the conversation back to real individual cost with clear cut pledges through to the next election. They also need to concentrate on the social and cultural impacts domestically. Taxes, wages, prices, welfare costs, housing, healthcare.
Obama has basically acknowledged that Brexit are correct on a US trade deal:
""It's fair to say that maybe some point down the line there might be a UK-US trade agreement...."
Why should they be denied ? They are welcome here to add to out brilliant diversity.
It is no accident that Britain started over-taking other European nations in the last 10 to 15 years precisely because new immigrants gave an added push to our economy.
This is precisely why the US has been the engine of the world. They always have had immigrants enhancing their economic growth potential.
Compare that with the stagnation of Japan. They are going backwards. As the population gets older and the working age people gets disproportionately smaller.
Watch Germany 5 years from now. No one will thank Angela Merkel then but they should.
The greatest European leader since the War bar Willy Brandt.
I say this as a socialist.
Our rate of economic growth over the past 10-15 years has been way below the post-war average. Those countries we've overtaken have simply performed worse (some of them, countries of high immigration).
A narrow Remain vote would not be a vote for the UK to enter the Eurozone, if that were ever the question Leave would almost certainly win. The main consequence of a narrow Remain would be to boost UKIP, I could well see a result in 2020 something like Tories 34%, Labour 31%, UKIP 16% and a hung parliament with UKIP potentially having the balance of power
According to Electoral Calculus, your share predictions would give UKIP four seats and leave the Tories 18 short of a majority. The SNP would hold the balance of power.
If you add in the DUP and UUP to the UKIP total that would be more than Labour + SNP
But not more than Lab + SNP +LD + Green + PC + SDLP. It would be very close. It would be truly hung.
Indeed and another election would probably not be too far off, you would also need to consider what impact the boundary changes would have too
Remainers cheat like hell to win the referendum and then call Leave bad losers for pointing out the result becomes illegitimate. I'm sorry but when everyone from the Electoral Commission to George Osborne's own uncle say it's unfair, the bad loser charge falls completely flat. If you wanted the result to be accepted, you should not have broken the EU's own advice on fair referenda.
Cue 300 jeering posts from ScottP, about Leave whiners.
A very good description. I wonder which of Scott's 16,000 posts he feels was most insightful and did most to add to the sum of human knowledge.
Could Boris be positioning himself as the leavers' Nicola Sturgeon? Perhaps he is actively trying to sabotage the leave campaign because he doesn't really believe in it but thinks it gives him a good chance of being the next Tory leader.
After this week BoJo Will Never Be Conservative Leader.
Yes ! The great grandson of Ali Kemal called Obama half-Kenyan.
That's a surprise. I thought everyone was dying to get out of the EU.
I have changed my forecast. From 55 - 45 to 58 - 42 for REMAIN to win.
I do hope LEAVE gets smashed to smithereens. However, it would be in my political interest for REMAIN to win 51 - 49 and then get a ringside view of the Tory party members cannibalising.
Remain's problem is they have played all their cards
The Brexiteers were saying that last week. Before Obama's intervention.
Plenty more ammo to come
Actually *this* is Remain's problem. This is taking shape as big corporations, big Government, and the international establishment, vs. people. 'More ammo' there may well be, but as much as some of it will find impact somewhere, it will add to the over all bullying establishment impression.
This is Leave's only hope - that enough people think that if a load of fat cats, gravy train riders and other assorted establishment hangers on say vote Remain, there must be a catch.
The media conversation is being dominated by macroeconomics. That sails over most people's heads.
Leave need to bring the conversation back to real individual cost with clear cut pledges through to the next election. They also need to concentrate on the social and cultural impacts domestically. Taxes, wages, prices, welfare costs, housing, healthcare.
Obama has basically acknowledged that Brexit are correct on a US trade deal:
""It's fair to say that maybe some point down the line there might be a UK-US trade agreement...."
Why should they be denied ? They are welcome here to add to out brilliant diversity.
It is no accident that Britain started over-taking other European nations in the last 10 to 15 years precisely because new immigrants gave an added push to our economy.
This is precisely why the US has been the engine of the world. They always have had immigrants enhancing their economic growth potential.
Compare that with the stagnation of Japan. They are going backwards. As the population gets older and the working age people gets disproportionately smaller.
Watch Germany 5 years from now. No one will thank Angela Merkel then but they should.
The greatest European leader since the War bar Willy Brandt.
I say this as a socialist.
Perhaps you'd give us the UK's GDP per head increase during the last decade and how it compares to that of previous decades ?
A narrow Remain vote would not be a vote for the UK to enter the Eurozone, if that were ever the question Leave would almost certainly win. The main consequence of a narrow Remain would be to boost UKIP, I could well see a result in 2020 something like Tories 34%, Labour 31%, UKIP 16% and a hung parliament with UKIP potentially having the balance of power
According to Electoral Calculus, your share predictions would give UKIP four seats and leave the Tories 18 short of a majority. The SNP would hold the balance of power.
If you add in the DUP and UUP to the UKIP total that would be more than Labour + SNP
But not more than Lab + SNP +LD + Green + PC + SDLP. It would be very close. It would be truly hung.
Indeed and another election would probably not be too far off, you would also need to consider what impact the boundary changes would have too
If they are passed!
With only a working majority of 18, it's only takes 10 Tories to tell the whips to 'get to the back of the queue' for their vote. Whoops.
The media conversation is being dominated by macroeconomics. That sails over most people's heads.
Leave need to bring the conversation back to real individual cost with clear cut pledges through to the next election. They also need to concentrate on the social and cultural impacts domestically. Taxes, wages, prices, welfare costs, housing, healthcare.
Obama has basically acknowledged that Brexit are correct on a US trade deal:
""It's fair to say that maybe some point down the line there might be a UK-US trade agreement...."
Why should they be denied ? They are welcome here to add to out brilliant diversity.
It is no accident that Britain started over-taking other European nations in the last 10 to 15 years precisely because new immigrants gave an added push to our economy.
This is precisely why the US has been the engine of the world. They always have had immigrants enhancing their economic growth potential.
Compare that with the stagnation of Japan. They are going backwards. As the population gets older and the working age people gets disproportionately smaller.
Watch Germany 5 years from now. No one will thank Angela Merkel then but they should.
The greatest European leader since the War bar Willy Brandt.
I say this as a socialist.
Our rate of economic growth over the past 10-15 years has been way below the post-war average. Those countries we've overtaken have simply performed worse (some of them, countries of high immigration).
Bollocks ! Which country had a higher rate of immigration in the last 10-15 years in Europe except Ireland ?
Germany had a huge influx in the 60s and 70s and they GREW. Did they not ? !!!! As they will again.
Could Boris be positioning himself as the leavers' Nicola Sturgeon? Perhaps he is actively trying to sabotage the leave campaign because he doesn't really believe in it but thinks it gives him a good chance of being the next Tory leader.
After this week BoJo Will Never Be Conservative Leader.
Yes ! The great grandson of Ali Kemal called Obama half-Kenyan.
Anti-Turkish racism!
Relax .... have a coffee .... Turkish or Kenyan would be fine ....
Polling shows a (to my mind, surprising) degree of unhappiness with President Obama's intervention. It may well be that Boris Johnson's comments are resonating with more of the voters than commentators want to believe.
I certainly think that Remain are being premature in celebrating victory before it's happened.
Is this just based on that Yougov thing from yesterday?
Polling shows a (to my mind, surprising) degree of unhappiness with President Obama's intervention. It may well be that Boris Johnson's comments are resonating with more of the voters than commentators want to believe.
I certainly think that Remain are being premature in celebrating victory before it's happened.
Is this just based on that Yougov thing from yesterday?
A narrow Remain vote would not be a vote for the UK to enter the Eurozone, if that were ever the question Leave would almost certainly win. The main consequence of a narrow Remain would be to boost UKIP, I could well see a result in 2020 something like Tories 34%, Labour 31%, UKIP 16% and a hung parliament with UKIP potentially having the balance of power
According to Electoral Calculus, your share predictions would give UKIP four seats and leave the Tories 18 short of a majority. The SNP would hold the balance of power.
If you add in the DUP and UUP to the UKIP total that would be more than Labour + SNP
Labour would also have support of SDLP, Plaid, Green and maybe Lady H.
And what chance has he to become POTUS ? A negative chance ?
He is the main rival to Trump still for the GOP nomination and if he does not get the nomination this year he may well in 2020, Trump also told Piers Morgan who would back Brexit
Aspiring US Presidential candidate tries to criticise US President for diplomatic faux pas whilst calling the UK "England"...
It happened when Obama gave the PM a load of non-working (in the UK) US dvds from The White House shop as a present. Republicans very well-meaningly got up in arms about it, but their take on it was that it was insulting because the UK didn't have dvds yet.
A narrow Remain vote would not be a vote for the UK to enter the Eurozone, if that were ever the question Leave would almost certainly win. The main consequence of a narrow Remain would be to boost UKIP, I could well see a result in 2020 something like Tories 34%, Labour 31%, UKIP 16% and a hung parliament with UKIP potentially having the balance of power
According to Electoral Calculus, your share predictions would give UKIP four seats and leave the Tories 18 short of a majority. The SNP would hold the balance of power.
If you add in the DUP and UUP to the UKIP total that would be more than Labour + SNP
Labour would also have support of SDLP, Plaid, Green and maybe Lady H.
The boundary changes could be key
The boundary changes have always been uncertain in terms of whether they are likely to be approved. It must be more likely now that alienated Brexit Tory MPs will find a way of sabotaging them - if only to spite Cameron.
Good old PB. A few bad days for Leave and its all gloating on one side and all doom and gloom on the other and everyone is convinced Remain is going to be 20% clear come the day and Boris will be in Northern Ireland. Next week someone on Remain will feck up, and all the leavers will be gloating, and it will be all doom and gloom for remain, and Cameron is going to be leaving via the nearest window. Then the next week.... well you get the picture.
The media conversation is being dominated by macroeconomics. That sails over most people's heads.
Leave need to bring the conversation back to real individual cost with clear cut pledges through to the next election. They also need to concentrate on the social and cultural impacts domestically. Taxes, wages, prices, welfare costs, housing, healthcare.
Obama has basically acknowledged that Brexit are correct on a US trade deal:
""It's fair to say that maybe some point down the line there might be a UK-US trade agreement...."
Why should they be denied ? They are welcome here to add to out brilliant diversity.
It is no accident that Britain started over-taking other European nations in the last 10 to 15 years precisely because new immigrants gave an added push to our economy.
This is precisely why the US has been the engine of the world. They always have had immigrants enhancing their economic growth potential.
Compare that with the stagnation of Japan. They are going backwards. As the population gets older and the working age people gets disproportionately smaller.
Watch Germany 5 years from now. No one will thank Angela Merkel then but they should.
The greatest European leader since the War bar Willy Brandt.
I say this as a socialist.
Economist Ludger Woessmann belives that around 2/3 of the migrants who have recently arrived in Germany are illiterate and that the majority of these migrants will never be able to enter the workforce. If this is true I doubt very few German people will be thanking Angela Merkel other than the loony left open borders crew.
And what chance has he to become POTUS ? A negative chance ?
He is the main rival to Trump still for the GOP nomination and if he does not get the nomination this year he may well in 2020, Trump also told Piers Morgan who would back Brexit
Good old PB. A few bad days for Leave and its all gloating on one side and all doom and gloom on the other and everyone is convinced Remain is going to be 20% clear come the day and Boris will be in Northern Ireland. Next week someone on Remain will feck up, and all the leavers will be gloating, and it will be all doom and gloom for remain, and Cameron is going to be leaving via the nearest window. Then the next week.... well you get the picture.
Is it just a little bit bipolar around here
We don't yet know whether it's been a bad few days from Leave. We won't know till there's some serious polling, not just about how people feel about Obama (which Sean F says isn't positive?), but about how it's affected their voting intentions.
Every Remainer here is engaged in a joyful post-mortem of what a catastrophe it's all been for Leave, but we have no data, and only one person has made a polling prediction on the impact of all this, which has been 2 to 3 percent.
Germany had a huge influx in the 60s and 70s and they GREW. Did they not ? !!!! As they will again.
Germany had someone else paying for their defense budget in the 60's and 70's. That £30+bn per year in today's terms that they could spend on their industry that we can't.
Good old PB. A few bad days for Leave and its all gloating on one side and all doom and gloom on the other and everyone is convinced Remain is going to be 20% clear come the day and Boris will be in Northern Ireland. Next week someone on Remain will feck up, and all the leavers will be gloating, and it will be all doom and gloom for remain, and Cameron is going to be leaving via the nearest window. Then the next week.... well you get the picture.
Is it just a little bit bipolar around here
We don't yet know whether it's been a bad few days from Leave. We won't know till there's some serious polling, not just about how people feel about Obama (which Sean F says isn't positive?), but about how it's affected their voting intentions.
Every Remainer here is engaged in a joyful post-mortem of what a catastrophe it's all been for Leave, but we have no data, and only one person has made a polling prediction on the impact of all this, which has been 2 to 3 percent.
A narrow Remain vote would not be a vote for the UK to enter the Eurozone, if that were ever the question Leave would almost certainly win. The main consequence of a narrow Remain would be to boost UKIP, I could well see a result in 2020 something like Tories 34%, Labour 31%, UKIP 16% and a hung parliament with UKIP potentially having the balance of power
According to Electoral Calculus, your share predictions would give UKIP four seats and leave the Tories 18 short of a majority. The SNP would hold the balance of power.
If you add in the DUP and UUP to the UKIP total that would be more than Labour + SNP
Labour would also have support of SDLP, Plaid, Green and maybe Lady H.
The boundary changes could be key
The boundary changes have always been uncertain in terms of whether they are likely to be approved. It must be more likely now that alienated Brexit Tory MPs will find a way of sabotaging them - if only to spite Cameron.
They still provide a net benefit to the Tories, enough are likely to back them
And what chance has he to become POTUS ? A negative chance ?
He is the main rival to Trump still for the GOP nomination and if he does not get the nomination this year he may well in 2020, Trump also told Piers Morgan who would back Brexit
So, that's two terms for Hillary then :-)
Perhaps but Congress will still be Republican at least and it will be EU sceptic
We don't yet know whether it's been a bad few days from Leave.
It has unquestionably been a bad few days for Leave. We don't know what impact it will have (if any) on the result, but the impact on the campaign is clear.
@paulwaugh: To recap: now FARAGE has distanced himself from Boris over Obama remarks - even tho he said sthng similar himself https://t.co/ThZFHo9A2K
After sending a somewhat intemperate post late last nght (after a couple or more home measure whiskies) I have decided to step back from the EU ref somewhat. Wont be posting any more for a while or lurking for a bit. I know what I think6o n the subject and it is not good for me in so many ways to get so worked up and frustrated by those who think differently. Best wishes all
'a larger research project that examined the sense of attachment to place expressed by three generations of the South Asian communities in Redbridge. While the older and younger generation were very clear in the attachment they feel towards where the area where they live, the group of 30-somethings were almost universal in their dislike of the area, and more specifically what they perceived as a decline in the physical look of Redbridge, which was seen as going ‘downhill’. What was striking was how they attributed this decline to the particular material practices of the expanding Asian community, which had almost doubled in size within the previous ten years '
I'm sure Sunil would find this report very interesting.
Well, been living in our road for over 30 years (though I personally had three-year stint in Cambridge, and a brief stay in Colorado over that period), when we first moved here we were like the only Asian people in the immediate neighbourhood. Now it's the White British who are in the tiny minority, majority either Asian or East European.
Even so, it's mostly white people wot compliment mum on her award-winning front garden whenever they see her working out front as they pass by, as opposed to the friendly neighbourhood Asians.
Not a "complaint", by any means, just an observation
So no chance of your front garden being paved over then
After sending a somewhat intemperate post late last nght (after a couple or more home measure whiskies) I have decided to step back from the EU ref somewhat. Wont be posting any more for a while or lurking for a bit. I know what I think6o n the subject and it is not good for me in so many ways to get so worked up and frustrated by those who think differently. Best wishes all
Possibly the sensible choice. I'm getting there myself.
Adam Boulton, albeit a journalist not exactly friendly to the Out cause, commenced his article in today's Sunday Times with this grand observation "Optimism about the outcome of the referendum is growing in Downing Street to such an extent that David Cameron is starting to think about an enhanced international role for the UK after it votes to stick with Europe".
Elsewhere Remain feel satisfied that their opening blitzkrieg has left their opponents in such disarray that there's no way back. Odd then that the reaction my nephew had on the Vote Leave stall yesterday was easily the most positive since the campaign began.
Remain optimism may well be justified but at least let's see a few polls, with fieldwork taken after the Obama visit, that back that up.
Could Boris be positioning himself as the leavers' Nicola Sturgeon? Perhaps he is actively trying to sabotage the leave campaign because he doesn't really believe in it but thinks it gives him a good chance of being the next Tory leader.
After this week BoJo Will Never Be Conservative Leader.
What if he did become leader ? it's going to be bloody briliant watching you defend him.
Adam Boulton, albeit a journalist not exactly friendly to the Out cause, commenced his article bin today's Sunday Times with this observation "Optimism about the outcome of the referendum is growing in Downing Street to such an extent that David Cameron is starting to think about an enhanced international role for the UK after it votes to stick with Europe".
Elsewhere Remain feel satisfied that their opening blitzkrieg has left their opponents in such disarray that there's no way back. Odd then that the reaction my nephew had on the Vote Leave stall yesterday was easily the most positive since the campaign began.
Remain optimism may well be justified but at least let's see a few polls, with fieldwork taken after the Obama visit, that back that up.
'David Cameron is starting to think about an enhanced international role for the UK after it votes to stick with Europe'
The UK, or himself? I do hope he's not going 'Blair', and planning some expeditionary warfare.
A narrow Remain vote would not be a vote for the UK to enter the Eurozone, if that were ever the question Leave would almost certainly win. The main consequence of a narrow Remain would be to boost UKIP, I could well see a result in 2020 something like Tories 34%, Labour 31%, UKIP 16% and a hung parliament with UKIP potentially having the balance of power
According to Electoral Calculus, your share predictions would give UKIP four seats and leave the Tories 18 short of a majority. The SNP would hold the balance of power.
If you add in the DUP and UUP to the UKIP total that would be more than Labour + SNP
Labour would also have support of SDLP, Plaid, Green and maybe Lady H.
The boundary changes could be key
The boundary changes have always been uncertain in terms of whether they are likely to be approved. It must be more likely now that alienated Brexit Tory MPs will find a way of sabotaging them - if only to spite Cameron.
They still provide a net benefit to the Tories, enough are likely to back them
It is pretty easy to imagine a good dozen failing to do so. As it was, four or five Welsh Tories were likely to oppose them as well as the MP for Shipley. Add in a couple of by-election reverses by late 2018 and the vote looks very problematic.
Could Boris be positioning himself as the leavers' Nicola Sturgeon? Perhaps he is actively trying to sabotage the leave campaign because he doesn't really believe in it but thinks it gives him a good chance of being the next Tory leader.
After this week BoJo Will Never Be Conservative Leader.
What if he did become leader ? it's going to be bloody briliant watching you defend him.
After this week, he certainly shouldn't become PM. But it may still happen anyway.
The media conversation is being dominated by macroeconomics. That sails over most people's heads.
Leave need to bring the conversation back to real individual cost with clear cut pledges through to the next election. They also need to concentrate on the social and cultural impacts domestically. Taxes, wages, prices, welfare costs, housing, healthcare.
Obama has basically acknowledged that Brexit are correct on a US trade deal:
""It's fair to say that maybe some point down the line there might be a UK-US trade agreement...."
Why should they be denied ? They are welcome here to add to out brilliant diversity.
It is no accident that Britain started over-taking other European nations in the last 10 to 15 years precisely because new immigrants gave an added push to our economy.
This is precisely why the US has been the engine of the world. They always have had immigrants enhancing their economic growth potential.
Compare that with the stagnation of Japan. They are going backwards. As the population gets older and the working age people gets disproportionately smaller.
Watch Germany 5 years from now. No one will thank Angela Merkel then but they should.
The greatest European leader since the War bar Willy Brandt.
I say this as a socialist.
Our rate of economic growth over the past 10-15 years has been way below the post-war average. Those countries we've overtaken have simply performed worse (some of them, countries of high immigration).
There are four reasons behind the 'all immigration is good' supporters:
1) Economic - people who benefit from lower labour costs and higher property values
2) Snobbery - people who despise the local working class and want more servile replacements
3) 'Betrayal' - the local working class have 'failed' politically and need to be replaced by people capable of being more 'progressive'
4) Vibrancy - all change and variety is of itself good
Roughly speaking (1) is the main factor of the 'rich', (2) is the main factor of the 'posh', (3) is the main factor of the 'left' and (4) is the main factor of the 'metropolitans'
The UK, or himself? I do hope he's not going 'Blair', and planning some expeditionary warfare.
No, only his personal expedition to a new Commissioner's job in Brussels, it should be the least he can expect after throwing his country (and his party) under a bus for them.
Good old PB. A few bad days for Leave and its all gloating on one side and all doom and gloom on the other and everyone is convinced Remain is going to be 20% clear come the day and Boris will be in Northern Ireland. Next week someone on Remain will feck up, and all the leavers will be gloating, and it will be all doom and gloom for remain, and Cameron is going to be leaving via the nearest window. Then the next week.... well you get the picture.
Is it just a little bit bipolar around here
We don't yet know whether it's been a bad few days from Leave. We won't know till there's some serious polling, not just about how people feel about Obama (which Sean F says isn't positive?), but about how it's affected their voting intentions.
Every Remainer here is engaged in a joyful post-mortem of what a catastrophe it's all been for Leave, but we have no data, and only one person has made a polling prediction on the impact of all this, which has been 2 to 3 percent.
After sending a somewhat intemperate post late last nght (after a couple or more home measure whiskies) I have decided to step back from the EU ref somewhat. Wont be posting any more for a while or lurking for a bit. I know what I think6o n the subject and it is not good for me in so many ways to get so worked up and frustrated by those who think differently. Best wishes all
A narrow Remain vote would not be a vote for the UK to enter the Eurozone, if that were ever the question Leave would almost certainly win. The main consequence of a narrow Remain would be to boost UKIP, I could well see a result in 2020 something like Tories 34%, Labour 31%, UKIP 16% and a hung parliament with UKIP potentially having the balance of power
According to Electoral Calculus, your share predictions would give UKIP four seats and leave the Tories 18 short of a majority. The SNP would hold the balance of power.
If you add in the DUP and UUP to the UKIP total that would be more than Labour + SNP
Labour would also have support of SDLP, Plaid, Green and maybe Lady H.
The boundary changes could be key
The boundary changes have always been uncertain in terms of whether they are likely to be approved. It must be more likely now that alienated Brexit Tory MPs will find a way of sabotaging them - if only to spite Cameron.
They still provide a net benefit to the Tories, enough are likely to back them
It is pretty easy to imagine a good dozen failing to do so. As it was, four or five Welsh Tories were likely to oppose them as well as the MP for Shipley. Add in a couple of by-election reverses by late 2018 and the vote looks very problematic.
There will be a 3 line whip, it is not an issue there will be a mass rebellion on
The media conversation is being dominated by macroeconomics. That sails over most people's heads.
Leave need to bring the conversation back to real individual cost with clear cut pledges through to the next election. They also need to concentrate on the social and cultural impacts domestically. Taxes, wages, prices, welfare costs, housing, healthcare.
Obama has basically acknowledged that Brexit are correct on a US trade deal:
""It's fair to say that maybe some point down the line there might be a UK-US trade agreement...."
Why should they be denied ? They are welcome here to add to out brilliant diversity.
It is no accident that Britain started over-taking other European nations in the last 10 to 15 years precisely because new immigrants gave an added push to our economy.
This is precisely why the US has been the engine of the world. They always have had immigrants enhancing their economic growth potential.
Compare that with the stagnation of Japan. They are going backwards. As the population gets older and the working age people gets disproportionately smaller.
Watch Germany 5 years from now. No one will thank Angela Merkel then but they should.
The greatest European leader since the War bar Willy Brandt.
I say this as a socialist.
Economist Ludger Woessmann belives that around 2/3 of the migrants who have recently arrived in Germany are illiterate and that the majority of these migrants will never be able to enter the workforce. If this is true I doubt very few German people will be thanking Angela Merkel other than the loony left open borders crew.
Weren't we told that all these Syrian refugees were engineers and doctors ?
Aaronovitch tried that one - and was laughed at. I gather a significant % of EU migrants from Eastern Europe are very well educated and in low paid jobs/getting tax credits et al.
The media conversation is being dominated by macroeconomics. That sails over most people's heads.
Leave need to bring the conversation back to real individual cost with clear cut pledges through to the next election. They also need to concentrate on the social and cultural impacts domestically. Taxes, wages, prices, welfare costs, housing, healthcare.
Obama has basically acknowledged that Brexit are correct on a US trade deal:
""It's fair to say that maybe some point down the line there might be a UK-US trade agreement...."
Why should they be denied ? They are welcome here to add to out brilliant diversity.
It is no accident that Britain started over-taking other European nations in the last 10 to 15 years precisely because new immigrants gave an added push to our economy.
This is precisely why the US has been the engine of the world. They always have had immigrants enhancing their economic growth potential.
Compare that with the stagnation of Japan. They are going backwards. As the population gets older and the working age people gets disproportionately smaller.
Watch Germany 5 years from now. No one will thank Angela Merkel then but they should.
The greatest European leader since the War bar Willy Brandt.
I say this as a socialist.
Economist Ludger Woessmann belives that around 2/3 of the migrants who have recently arrived in Germany are illiterate and that the majority of these migrants will never be able to enter the workforce. If this is true I doubt very few German people will be thanking Angela Merkel other than the loony left open borders crew.
Weren't we told that all these Syrian refugees were engineers and doctors ?
The media conversation is being dominated by macroeconomics. That sails over most people's heads.
Leave need to bring the conversation back to real individual cost with clear cut pledges through to the next election. They also need to concentrate on the social and cultural impacts domestically. Taxes, wages, prices, welfare costs, housing, healthcare.
Obama has basically acknowledged that Brexit are correct on a US trade deal:
""It's fair to say that maybe some point down the line there might be a UK-US trade agreement...."
Why should they be denied ? They are welcome here to add to out brilliant diversity.
It is no accident that Britain started over-taking other European nations in the last 10 to 15 years precisely because new immigrants gave an added push to our economy.
This is precisely why the US has been the engine of the world. They always have had immigrants enhancing their economic growth potential.
Compare that with the stagnation of Japan. They are going backwards. As the population gets older and the working age people gets disproportionately smaller.
Watch Germany 5 years from now. No one will thank Angela Merkel then but they should.
The greatest European leader since the War bar Willy Brandt.
I say this as a socialist.
Our rate of economic growth over the past 10-15 years has been way below the post-war average. Those countries we've overtaken have simply performed worse (some of them, countries of high immigration).
There are four reasons behind the 'all immigration is good' supporters:
1) Economic - people who benefit from lower labour costs and higher property values
2) Snobbery - people who despise the local working class and want more servile replacements
3) 'Betrayal' - the local working class have 'failed' politically and need to be replaced by people capable of being more 'progressive'
4) Vibrancy - all change and variety is of itself good
Roughly speaking (1) is the main factor of the 'rich', (2) is the main factor of the 'posh', (3) is the main factor of the 'left' and (4) is the main factor of the 'metropolitans'
The UK, or himself? I do hope he's not going 'Blair', and planning some expeditionary warfare.
No, only his personal expedition to a new Commissioner's job in Brussels, it should be the least he can expect after throwing his country (and his party) under a bus for them.
I think he's going to use the 'momentum' he thinks he'll get from a resounding win to get stuck in to the European army and other things. Fallon has already been hinting at it. Sorry to get dramatic, but he's not a nice piece of work.
Those people convincing themselves that 'we are an independent country' and 'we can have another referendum in 15 years' are being disastrously complacent.
Aaronovitch tried that one - and was laughed at. I gather a significant % of EU migrants from Eastern Europe are very well educated and in low paid jobs/getting tax credits et al.
The media conversation is being dominated by macroeconomics. That sails over most people's heads.
Leave need to bring the conversation back to real individual cost with clear cut pledges through to the next election. They also need to concentrate on the social and cultural impacts domestically. Taxes, wages, prices, welfare costs, housing, healthcare.
Obama has basically acknowledged that Brexit are correct on a US trade deal:
""It's fair to say that maybe some point down the line there might be a UK-US trade agreement...."
Why should they be denied ? They are welcome here to add to out brilliant diversity.
It is no accident that Britain started over-taking other European nations in the last 10 to 15 years precisely because new immigrants gave an added push to our economy.
This is precisely why the US has been the engine of the world. They always have had immigrants enhancing their economic growth potential.
Compare that with the stagnation of Japan. They are going backwards. As the population gets older and the working age people gets disproportionately smaller.
Watch Germany 5 years from now. No one will thank Angela Merkel then but they should.
The greatest European leader since the War bar Willy Brandt.
I say this as a socialist.
Economist Ludger Woessmann belives that around 2/3 of the migrants who have recently arrived in Germany are illiterate and that the majority of these migrants will never be able to enter the workforce. If this is true I doubt very few German people will be thanking Angela Merkel other than the loony left open borders crew.
Weren't we told that all these Syrian refugees were engineers and doctors ?
Britain must have the most highly educated potato pickers and hotel chambermaids in the world.
The media conversation is being dominated by macroeconomics. That sails over most people's heads.
Leave need to bring the conversation back to real individual cost with clear cut pledges through to the next election. They also need to concentrate on the social and cultural impacts domestically. Taxes, wages, prices, welfare costs, housing, healthcare.
Obama has basically acknowledged that Brexit are correct on a US trade deal:
""It's fair to say that maybe some point down the line there might be a UK-US trade agreement...."
Why should they be denied ? They are welcome here to add to out brilliant diversity.
It is no accident that Britain started over-taking other European nations in the last 10 to 15 years precisely because new immigrants gave an added push to our economy.
This is precisely why the US has been the engine of the world. They always have had immigrants enhancing their economic growth potential.
Compare that with the stagnation of Japan. They are going backwards. As the population gets older and the working age people gets disproportionately smaller.
Watch Germany 5 years from now. No one will thank Angela Merkel then but they should.
The greatest European leader since the War bar Willy Brandt.
I say this as a socialist.
Economist Ludger Woessmann belives that around 2/3 of the migrants who have recently arrived in Germany are illiterate and that the majority of these migrants will never be able to enter the workforce. If this is true I doubt very few German people will be thanking Angela Merkel other than the loony left open borders crew.
Weren't we told that all these Syrian refugees were engineers and doctors ?
Niall Ferguson embarrassed himself again today in the STimes - a literally incoherent article full of snobbery, massive assumptions and no meat. It's been deservedly panned in the Comments.
Dominic Lawson on the otherhand has a great piece on why the USA hasn't looked after anyone but themselves since Year Dot.
Adam Boulton, albeit a journalist not exactly friendly to the Out cause, commenced his article in today's Sunday Times with this grand observation "Optimism about the outcome of the referendum is growing in Downing Street to such an extent that David Cameron is starting to think about an enhanced international role for the UK after it votes to stick with Europe".
Elsewhere Remain feel satisfied that their opening blitzkrieg has left their opponents in such disarray that there's no way back. Odd then that the reaction my nephew had on the Vote Leave stall yesterday was easily the most positive since the campaign began.
Remain optimism may well be justified but at least let's see a few polls, with fieldwork taken after the Obama visit, that back that up.
Aaronovitch tried that one - and was laughed at. I gather a significant % of EU migrants from Eastern Europe are very well educated and in low paid jobs/getting tax credits et al.
The media conversation is being dominated by macroeconomics. That sails over most people's heads.
Leave need to bring the conversation back to real individual cost with clear cut pledges through to the next election. They also need to concentrate on the social and cultural impacts domestically. Taxes, wages, prices, welfare costs, housing, healthcare.
Obama has basically acknowledged that Brexit are correct on a US trade deal:
""It's fair to say that maybe some point down the line there might be a UK-US trade agreement...."
Why should they be denied ? They are welcome here to add to out brilliant diversity.
It is no accident that Britain started over-taking other European nations in the last 10 to 15 years precisely because new immigrants gave an added push to our economy.
This is precisely why the US has been the engine of the world. They always have had immigrants enhancing their economic growth potential.
Compare that with the stagnation of Japan. They are going backwards. As the population gets older and the working age people gets disproportionately smaller.
Watch Germany 5 years from now. No one will thank Angela Merkel then but they should.
The greatest European leader since the War bar Willy Brandt.
I say this as a socialist.
Economist Ludger Woessmann belives that around 2/3 of the migrants who have recently arrived in Germany are illiterate and that the majority of these migrants will never be able to enter the workforce. If this is true I doubt very few German people will be thanking Angela Merkel other than the loony left open borders crew.
Weren't we told that all these Syrian refugees were engineers and doctors ?
That is why we will increasingly get our own Trumpism. Same problem, same angry response. If UKIP find someone with a bit of style and huge testicular fortitude they will be polling in the 20's before you know it.
A narrow Remain vote would not be a vote for the UK to enter the Eurozone, if that were ever the question Leave would almost certainly win. The main consequence of a narrow Remain would be to boost UKIP, I could well see a result in 2020 something like Tories 34%, Labour 31%, UKIP 16% and a hung parliament with UKIP potentially having the balance of power
According to Electoral Calculus, your share predictions would give UKIP four seats and leave the Tories 18 short of a majority. The SNP would hold the balance of power.
If you add in the DUP and UUP to the UKIP total that would be more than Labour + SNP
Labour would also have support of SDLP, Plaid, Green and maybe Lady H.
The boundary changes could be key
The boundary changes have always been uncertain in terms of whether they are likely to be approved. It must be more likely now that alienated Brexit Tory MPs will find a way of sabotaging them - if only to spite Cameron.
They still provide a net benefit to the Tories, enough are likely to back them
It is pretty easy to imagine a good dozen failing to do so. As it was, four or five Welsh Tories were likely to oppose them as well as the MP for Shipley. Add in a couple of by-election reverses by late 2018 and the vote looks very problematic.
There will be a 3 line whip, it is not an issue there will be a mass rebellion on
You appear to have forgotten that there was a rebellion last time - opposition to the boundary changes was not confined to the LibDems! The EU fractures will almost add to the list of rebels - some of whom will no longer give a damn about a 3 line whip..
A narrow Remain vote would not be a vote for the UK to enter the Eurozone, if that were ever the question Leave would almost certainly win. The main consequence of a narrow Remain would be to boost UKIP, I could well see a result in 2020 something like Tories 34%, Labour 31%, UKIP 16% and a hung parliament with UKIP potentially having the balance of power
According to Electoral Calculus, your share predictions would give UKIP four seats and leave the Tories 18 short of a majority. The SNP would hold the balance of power.
If you add in the DUP and UUP to the UKIP total that would be more than Labour + SNP
Labour would also have support of SDLP, Plaid, Green and maybe Lady H.
The boundary changes could be key
The boundary changes have always been uncertain in terms of whether they are likely to be approved. It must be more likely now that alienated Brexit Tory MPs will find a way of sabotaging them - if only to spite Cameron.
They still provide a net benefit to the Tories, enough are likely to back them
It is pretty easy to imagine a good dozen failing to do so. As it was, four or five Welsh Tories were likely to oppose them as well as the MP for Shipley. Add in a couple of by-election reverses by late 2018 and the vote looks very problematic.
There will be a 3 line whip, it is not an issue there will be a mass rebellion on
You appear to have forgotten that there was a rebellion last time - opposition to the boundary changes was not confined to the LibDems! The EU fractures will almost add to the list of rebels - some of whom will no longer give a damn about a 3 line whip..
Especially some of the 50 looking for a new seat, and also on Cameron's shit list. They are going to be feeling unlikely to be taken care of, so might as well go for broke.
A narrow Remain vote would not be a vote for the UK to enter the Eurozone, if that were ever the question Leave would almost certainly win. The main consequence of a narrow Remain would be to boost UKIP, I could well see a result in 2020 something like Tories 34%, Labour 31%, UKIP 16% and a hung parliament with UKIP potentially having the balance of power
According to Electoral Calculus, your share predictions would give UKIP four seats and leave the Tories 18 short of a majority. The SNP would hold the balance of power.
If you add in the DUP and UUP to the UKIP total that would be more than Labour + SNP
Labour would also have support of SDLP, Plaid, Green and maybe Lady H.
The boundary changes could be key
The boundary changes have always been uncertain in terms of whether they are likely to be approved. It must be more likely now that alienated Brexit Tory MPs will find a way of sabotaging them - if only to spite Cameron.
They still provide a net benefit to the Tories, enough are likely to back them
It is pretty easy to imagine a good dozen failing to do so. As it was, four or five Welsh Tories were likely to oppose them as well as the MP for Shipley. Add in a couple of by-election reverses by late 2018 and the vote looks very problematic.
There will be a 3 line whip, it is not an issue there will be a mass rebellion on
You appear to have forgotten that there was a rebellion last time - opposition to the boundary changes was not confined to the LibDems! The EU fractures will almost add to the list of rebels - some of whom will no longer give a damn about a 3 line whip..
There was an opposition to Lords Reform which led the LDs to oppose boundary changes, it was not a Tory rebellion on the issue
Adam Boulton, albeit a journalist not exactly friendly to the Out cause, commenced his article bin today's Sunday Times with this observation "Optimism about the outcome of the referendum is growing in Downing Street to such an extent that David Cameron is starting to think about an enhanced international role for the UK after it votes to stick with Europe".
Elsewhere Remain feel satisfied that their opening blitzkrieg has left their opponents in such disarray that there's no way back. Odd then that the reaction my nephew had on the Vote Leave stall yesterday was easily the most positive since the campaign began.
Remain optimism may well be justified but at least let's see a few polls, with fieldwork taken after the Obama visit, that back that up.
'David Cameron is starting to think about an enhanced international role for the UK after it votes to stick with Europe'
The UK, or himself? I do hope he's not going 'Blair', and planning some expeditionary warfare.
You mean some MORE expeditionary warfare.
The cost of 'an enhanced international role' is always paid for in British lives and British money.
Aaronovitch tried that one - and was laughed at. I gather a significant % of EU migrants from Eastern Europe are very well educated and in low paid jobs/getting tax credits et al.
The media conversation is being dominated by macroeconomics. That sails over most people's heads.
Leave need to bring the conversation back to real individual cost with clear cut pledges through to the next election. They also need to concentrate on the social and cultural impacts domestically. Taxes, wages, prices, welfare costs, housing, healthcare.
Obama has basically acknowledged that Brexit are correct on a US trade deal:
""It's fair to say that maybe some point down the line there might be a UK-US trade agreement...."
Why should they be denied ? They are welcome here to add to out brilliant diversity.
It is no accident that Britain started over-taking other European nations in the last 10 to 15 years precisely because new immigrants gave an added push to our economy.
This is precisely why the US has been the engine of the world. They always have had immigrants enhancing their economic growth potential.
Compare that with the stagnation of Japan. They are going backwards. As the population gets older and the working age people gets disproportionately smaller.
Watch Germany 5 years from now. No one will thank Angela Merkel then but they should.
The greatest European leader since the War bar Willy Brandt.
I say this as a socialist.
Economist Ludger Woessmann belives that around 2/3 of the migrants who have recently arrived in Germany are illiterate and that the majority of these migrants will never be able to enter the workforce. If this is true I doubt very few German people will be thanking Angela Merkel other than the loony left open borders crew.
Weren't we told that all these Syrian refugees were engineers and doctors ?
That is why we will increasingly get our own Trumpism. Same problem, same angry response. If UKIP find someone with a bit of style and huge testicular fortitude they will be polling in the 20's before you know it.
The Chinese can't possibly be dumping steel into the single market because they don't have freedom of movement, we cannot possibly be trading with the US because we are at the back of a queue for a free trade deal....
A narrow Remain vote would not be a vote for the UK to enter the Eurozone, if that were ever the question Leave would almost certainly win. The main consequence of a narrow Remain would be to boost UKIP, I could well see a result in 2020 something like Tories 34%, Labour 31%, UKIP 16% and a hung parliament with UKIP potentially having the balance of power
According to Electoral Calculus, your share predictions would give UKIP four seats and leave the Tories 18 short of a majority. The SNP would hold the balance of power.
If you add in the DUP and UUP to the UKIP total that would be more than Labour + SNP
Labour would also have support of SDLP, Plaid, Green and maybe Lady H.
The boundary changes could be key
The boundary changes have always been uncertain in terms of whether they are likely to be approved. It must be more likely now that alienated Brexit Tory MPs will find a way of sabotaging them - if only to spite Cameron.
They still provide a net benefit to the Tories, enough are likely to back them
It is pretty easy to imagine a good dozen failing to do so. As it was, four or five Welsh Tories were likely to oppose them as well as the MP for Shipley. Add in a couple of by-election reverses by late 2018 and the vote looks very problematic.
There will be a 3 line whip, it is not an issue there will be a mass rebellion on
You appear to have forgotten that there was a rebellion last time - opposition to the boundary changes was not confined to the LibDems! The EU fractures will almost add to the list of rebels - some of whom will no longer give a damn about a 3 line whip..
There was an opposition to Lords Reform which led the LDs to oppose boundary changes, it was not a Tory rebellion on the issue
There were four Tories who rebelled - Philip Davies - David Davis - Richard Shepherd - and John Baron. Others abstained. Moreover, that was without the EU fractures!
Day 3 of the Obamadrama and the Leavers are still wailing like police sirens.
The overreaction seems far more likely to be damaging to the Leave cause than Barack Obama's actual comments.
Yes, because all the world's press if glued to PB to see what the "leavers" are going to do next. That fact that we are a group of armchair political nerds with no influence on anything won't dissuade them at all I am sure
We don't yet know whether it's been a bad few days from Leave. We won't know till there's some serious polling, not just about how people feel about Obama (which Sean F says isn't positive?), but about how it's affected their voting intentions.
Amen. There's far too much counting of unhatched chickens
A narrow Remain vote would not be a vote for the UK to enter the Eurozone, if that were ever the question Leave would almost certainly win. The main consequence of a narrow Remain would be to boost UKIP, I could well see a result in 2020 something like Tories 34%, Labour 31%, UKIP 16% and a hung parliament with UKIP potentially having the balance of power
According to Electoral Calculus, your share predictions would give UKIP four seats and leave the Tories 18 short of a majority. The SNP would hold the balance of power.
If you add in the DUP and UUP to the UKIP total that would be more than Labour + SNP
Labour would also have support of SDLP, Plaid, Green and maybe Lady H.
The boundary changes could be key
The boundary changes have always been uncertain in terms of whether they are likely to be approved. It must be more likely now that alienated Brexit Tory MPs will find a way of sabotaging them - if only to spite Cameron.
They still provide a net benefit to the Tories, enough are likely to back them
It is pretty easy to imagine a good dozen failing to do so. As it was, four or five Welsh Tories were likely to oppose them as well as the MP for Shipley. Add in a couple of by-election reverses by late 2018 and the vote looks very problematic.
There will be a 3 line whip, it is not an issue there will be a mass rebellion on
You appear to have forgotten that there was a rebellion last time - opposition to the boundary changes was not confined to the LibDems! The EU fractures will almost add to the list of rebels - some of whom will no longer give a damn about a 3 line whip..
Especially some of the 50 looking for a new seat, and also on Cameron's shit list. They are going to be feeling unlikely to be taken care of, so might as well go for broke.
I bloody hope not. Osborne might be a sneering brownite, but Mrs May's totalitarian leanings are too creepy for my taste, of course Tory men of a certain age get rather excited about that sort of thing I am told.
Day 3 of the Obamadrama and the Leavers are still wailing like police sirens.
The overreaction seems far more likely to be damaging to the Leave cause than Barack Obama's actual comments.
I can't speak for others but the events as a whole from last week (Osborne's £4300 household loss propaganda more than Obama's intervention) have merely ensured my voting intentions for Leave have firmed up from 50% at the outset to 100% now. More than that if we're going to go down as you and most others predict I have decided to do my bit for the campaign by getting off my lazy PB backside and start delivering leadflets and manning the High Street. It will make me feel better if nobody else!
A narrow Remain vote would not be a vote for the UK to enter the Eurozone, if that were ever the question Leave would almost certainly win. The main consequence of a narrow Remain would be to boost UKIP, I could well see a result in 2020 something like Tories 34%, Labour 31%, UKIP 16% and a hung parliament with UKIP potentially having the balance of power
According to Electoral Calculus, your share predictions would give UKIP four seats and leave the Tories 18 short of a majority. The SNP would hold the balance of power.
If you add in the DUP and UUP to the UKIP total that would be more than Labour + SNP
Labour would also have support of SDLP, Plaid, Green and maybe Lady H.
The boundary changes could be key
The boundary changes have always been uncertain in terms of whether they are likely to be approved. It must be more likely now that alienated Brexit Tory MPs will find a way of sabotaging them - if only to spite Cameron.
They still provide a net benefit to the Tories, enough are likely to back them
It is pretty easy to imagine a good dozen failing to do so. As it was, four or five Welsh Tories were likely to oppose them as well as the MP for Shipley. Add in a couple of by-election reverses by late 2018 and the vote looks very problematic.
There will be a 3 line whip, it is not an issue there will be a mass rebellion on
You appear to have forgotten that there was a rebellion last time - opposition to the boundary changes was not confined to the LibDems! The EU fractures will almost add to the list of rebels - some of whom will no longer give a damn about a 3 line whip..
There was an opposition to Lords Reform which led the LDs to oppose boundary changes, it was not a Tory rebellion on the issue
There were four Tories who rebelled - Philip Davies - David Davis - Richard Shepherd - and John Baron. Others abstained. Moreover, that was without the EU fractures!
Could Boris be positioning himself as the leavers' Nicola Sturgeon? Perhaps he is actively trying to sabotage the leave campaign because he doesn't really believe in it but thinks it gives him a good chance of being the next Tory leader.
After this week BoJo Will Never Be Conservative Leader.
What if he did become leader ? it's going to be bloody briliant watching you defend him.
Don't worry, he is like the town clock , plenty of faces. Will surely be enough twitter posts to help him out
Comments
Oh.
Many of the remainers have expressed their anger over Boris and Farage's remarks on Obama. What hasn't been said sufficiently though is just how pathetic the remarks were. Focusing on Obama was just crude it was irrelevant. All he has done is what every other US President in recent memory has done which is to urge Britain to be a voice in Europe. WWhy does that so anger people like Farage? Because it pulls the rug from under the feet of their mythical dream of an Anglosphere. How can you believe in such a political concept when none of the other countries, in particular by far the largest one, want us outside the EU.
'Serbia election seen as vote on EU membership'
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-36122928
Do they want our seat at the table?
Sure, they are in "power" in Scotland, but too afraid of their supporters to actually wield it.
And no closer to separation than they ever were.
It is no accident that Britain started over-taking other European nations in the last 10 to 15 years precisely because new immigrants gave an added push to our economy.
This is precisely why the US has been the engine of the world. They always have had immigrants enhancing their economic growth potential.
Compare that with the stagnation of Japan. They are going backwards. As the population gets older and the working age people gets disproportionately smaller.
Watch Germany 5 years from now. No one will thank Angela Merkel then but they should.
The greatest European leader since the War bar Willy Brandt.
I say this as a socialist.
Even so, it's mostly white people wot compliment mum on her award-winning front garden whenever they see her working out front as they pass by, as opposed to the friendly neighbourhood Asians.
Not a "complaint", by any means, just an observation
http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/652350/Ted-Cruz-Barack-Obama-EU-referendum-Brexit-Cameron
https://twitter.com/tedcruz/status/723677235626942464
I have changed my forecast. From 55 - 45 to 58 - 42 for REMAIN to win.
I do hope LEAVE gets smashed to smithereens. However, it would be in my political interest for REMAIN to win 51 - 49 and then get a ringside view of the Tory party members cannibalising.
Germany had a huge influx in the 60s and 70s and they GREW. Did they not ? !!!! As they will again.
Or not.
Is it just a little bit bipolar around here
Every Remainer here is engaged in a joyful post-mortem of what a catastrophe it's all been for Leave, but we have no data, and only one person has made a polling prediction on the impact of all this, which has been 2 to 3 percent.
@paulwaugh: To recap: now FARAGE has distanced himself from Boris over Obama remarks - even tho he said sthng similar himself
https://t.co/ThZFHo9A2K
Elsewhere Remain feel satisfied that their opening blitzkrieg has left their opponents in such disarray that there's no way back. Odd then that the reaction my nephew had on the Vote Leave stall yesterday was easily the most positive since the campaign began.
Remain optimism may well be justified but at least let's see a few polls, with fieldwork taken after the Obama visit, that back that up.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-3555819/DAN-HODGES-Air-Force-One-landed-right-Brexiteers.html
The UK, or himself? I do hope he's not going 'Blair', and planning some expeditionary warfare.
1) Economic - people who benefit from lower labour costs and higher property values
2) Snobbery - people who despise the local working class and want more servile replacements
3) 'Betrayal' - the local working class have 'failed' politically and need to be replaced by people capable of being more 'progressive'
4) Vibrancy - all change and variety is of itself good
Roughly speaking (1) is the main factor of the 'rich', (2) is the main factor of the 'posh', (3) is the main factor of the 'left' and (4) is the main factor of the 'metropolitans'
We're leaving our own bottom quartile to rot.
Those people convincing themselves that 'we are an independent country' and 'we can have another referendum in 15 years' are being disastrously complacent.
Dominic Lawson on the otherhand has a great piece on why the USA hasn't looked after anyone but themselves since Year Dot.
I guess they got Friday's message, that there's no other option unless they want to join the back of the queue.
The overreaction seems far more likely to be damaging to the Leave cause than Barack Obama's actual comments.
The cost of 'an enhanced international role' is always paid for in British lives and British money.
I'll keep my membership going for the leadership vote and then decide what to do.
Unreal.
The Chinese can't possibly be dumping steel into the single market because they don't have freedom of movement, we cannot possibly be trading with the US because we are at the back of a queue for a free trade deal....
141 Tory MPs are backing Brexit http://order-order.com/2016/03/03/141-tory-mps-backing-brexit/
Who's backing who > https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1vp6viBi5DA4avMgR2Y8lKrrAUqJp-0zL2LZB6iVD3uU/edit
Dutch journalist arrested in Turkey after criticizing Erdogan https://t.co/rBvrVYE0Mn