Good article. I think the dissatisfaction with Cameron is that he has gone so hard and early in the campaign, and appears not to care if he leaves behind a massive split in his own party as his legacy so long as the referendum is won.
I think most of those on the Leave side of the Tories expected the debate to be fought under the Queesbury Rules, which clearly hasn't happened. Oh to be Graham Brady's postman on 24th June.
I do not think that is correct but nor do I agree with the other refutations on pb this morning. Really, the remarkable thing about Leave is not that it expected a different fight but that it expected no fight at all.
It is like Nick Clegg with the AV referendum, or Gove at Education. They regard their view on Europe (or schools or AV) as so self-evidently correct that there is no need to campaign for it. They literally do not understand how others might take a different view or, even more mystifying, have no opinion at all. Disagreement can only come from traitors or those with a vested interest -- just as only "the blob" might question Gove's initiatives. (Whatever happened to Gove's anti-blob bagman, Dominic Cummings? *innocent face*)
That sounds about right to me. Leavers are so convinced that they simply cannot understand the undecideds point of view. With the slightest questioning, they go into full on rant mode and the undecided start to back away.
Cummings was a very poor choice as campaign director for this very reason.
It's true of both sides, though. Remain can't comprehend how anyone could think of leaving the EU, now that the big important people have said we should stay. Remainers don't rant, but they patronise.
Yes. Remain are smugger, Leave are more rabid and unfocused.
Not least the existence of the main European financial centre inside the EU but outside of the Eurozone cannot continue.
Why not?
Because of the impact the City can have on the stability of the Eurozone.
Meaning?
Meaning we saw in 2008 how a poorly regulated financial sector can be catastrophic for economic policy. Now you may argue that the City is no longer poorly regulated but that doesn't mean that the Eurozone is necessarily going to take the chance. They will want to have as much control over all factors that can effect them as possible. They will have the City in their sights and Cameron's 'deal' will do nothing to stop them.
Continentals also seem to have the bizarre idea that it is the fund managers screaming that the emperor has no clothes which is the problem rather than the politicians who insist on running a nudist economic policy.
Has Lord Sugar's intervention affected the betting markets for the London mayoralty?
Does anyone have any demographic stats for the number of Jewish voters in London? They don't seem to be particularly enamoured with Mr Khan as a candidate.
Probably about 130,000.
Thanks. I'm trying to work out if there could be any late swing towards Zac or if 10/1 really is a fair price.
Are we expecting any London polling in the next 10 days?
Zac's only real hope is high turnout by AB and older voters in a low turnout election, but I don't think it's much of a hope.
Not least the existence of the main European financial centre inside the EU but outside of the Eurozone cannot continue.
Why not?
Because of the impact the City can have on the stability of the Eurozone.
Meaning?
Meaning we saw in 2008 how a poorly regulated financial sector can be catastrophic for economic policy. Now you may argue that the City is no longer poorly regulated but that doesn't mean that the Eurozone is necessarily going to take the chance. They will want to have as much control over all factors that can effect them as possible. They will have the City in their sights and Cameron's 'deal' will do nothing to stop them.
Continentals also seem to have the bizarre idea that it is the fund managers screaming that the emperor has no clothes which is the problem rather than the politicians who insist on running a nudist economic policy.
Indeed. I wasn't making any claim that they are right, just that that is the way they think.
No I believe today he's in Germany telling Germans how to vote and about his special relationship with Frau Merkel.
I sense a theme here.
I sense a theme here too. I'm reminded of the Salem witch trials. As the Leave campaign implodes time to burn the Kenyan. I think a more effective strategy would be to get rid of the tag team Johnson and Farage who are not only wrecking the Leave campaign but also embarrassing the UK among the rest of the world
I know he commented on Boriss comments, but otherwise farage has been pretty low key, hasn't he?
Some leavers are acting like they've given up, which is not surprising as some were getting in excuses months ago, but there's a long way to go, remain don't have much new to play with from now. Leave can still do this.
What the country are seeing is the shambles that we would face if this bunch took over the reins of power. Nothing to do with staying in or getting out of the EU just understanding how to run a campaign.
At the moment no one in the Leave camp look like they're capable of running a whelk stall. If Cameron wins well I'm sure he'll cull them all. If any of them had any ability they would have seen it coming. It's not over for Leave but they need a serious rethink.
Pardon my ignorance but I didn't think that LEAVE were campaigning for political power/ Did I miss something?
No, but quite a few are confused and appear to think we're having some kind of weird election. Back in reality, the current government would be negotiating Leave terms, not Farage.
No I believe today he's in Germany telling Germans how to vote and about his special relationship with Frau Merkel.
I sense a theme here.
I sense a theme here too. I'm reminded of the Salem witch trials. As the Leave campaign implodes time to burn the Kenyan. I think a more effective strategy would be to get rid of the tag team Johnson and Farage who are not only wrecking the Leave campaign but also embarrassing the UK among the rest of the world
I know he commented on Boriss comments, but otherwise farage has been pretty low key, hasn't he?
Some leavers are acting like they've given up, which is not surprising as some were getting in excuses months ago, but there's a long way to go, remain don't have much new to play with from now. Leave can still do this.
What the country are seeing is the shambles that we would face if this bunch took over the reins of power. Nothing to do with staying in or getting out of the EU just understanding how to run a campaign.
At the moment no one in the Leave camp look like they're capable of running a whelk stall. If Cameron wins well I'm sure he'll cull them all. If any of them had any ability they would have seen it coming. It's not over for Leave but they need a serious rethink.
What the country are seeing is the shambles that we would face if Cameron and Osborne retain the reins of power. A far more serious prospect. just look at Osborne's recent budget... A monumental failure.
No I believe today he's in Germany telling Germans how to vote and about his special relationship with Frau Merkel.
I sense a theme here.
I sense a theme here too. I'm reminded of the Salem witch trials. As the Leave campaign implodes time to burn the Kenyan. I think a more effective strategy would be to get rid of the tag team Johnson and Farage who are not only wrecking the Leave campaign but also embarrassing the UK among the rest of the world
I know he commented on Boriss comments, but otherwise farage has been pretty low key, hasn't he?
Some leavers are acting like they've given up, which is not surprising as some were getting in excuses months ago, but there's a long way to go, remain don't have much new to play with from now. Leave can still do this.
What the country are seeing is the shambles that we would face if this bunch took over the reins of power. Nothing to do with staying in or getting out of the EU just understanding how to run a campaign.
At the moment no one in the Leave camp look like they're capable of running a whelk stall. If Cameron wins well I'm sure he'll cull them all. If any of them had any ability they would have seen it coming. It's not over for Leave but they need a serious rethink.
The country are also seeing 2 parties attempting to sell their products, one with an advertising budget many times larger than that of the other, and greater media access.
As a Commercials man, you should recognise the advantage. X might be the greatest product ever invented, but it has no chance if Y can swamp it under a deluge of publicity, and has bought up all the media. Happens all the time.
It's not publicity they're short of. Most of the main media outlets are giving both sides equal time and the popular press are generally in favour of Brexit. They need organisation at this point more than money. No one's advertising yet. That'll come later and at that point if they're showing some direction I'm sure the money will come
Presumably the next Tory leader being in favour of a Brexit was Boris's calculation I am not so sure. We might well see even more of a UKIP effect with more Leavers following the likes of SeanF out of the party leaving a different electorate behind.
I take it that Andrew Marr didn't ask Obama whether the back of the queue was any place to put the largest foreign investor in US business and a country whose companies employ over 1m Americans?
Thought not.
Given current UK investment in the US why prioritise a deal? There's no urgency required.
True. We don't need a deal either. We sell more than $4bn of goods to the US every month as it is. Not bad for a country that is supposedly not good at making things. They don't sell quite so much to us so unlike those with whom we have a free trade agreement we actually run a surplus with the US.
Makes you wonder why Leave have got themselves in such a state over this.
Has Lord Sugar's intervention affected the betting markets for the London mayoralty?
Does anyone have any demographic stats for the number of Jewish voters in London? They don't seem to be particularly enamoured with Mr Khan as a candidate.
Probably about 130,000.
Thanks. I'm trying to work out if there could be any late swing towards Zac or if 10/1 really is a fair price.
Are we expecting any London polling in the next 10 days?
Zac's only real hope is high turnout by AB and older voters in a low turnout election, but I don't think it's much of a hope.
There are also likely to be more unregistered voters at these elections than before. They are more likely to be Labour supporters than Conservative.
Not least the existence of the main European financial centre inside the EU but outside of the Eurozone cannot continue.
Why not?
Because of the impact the City can have on the stability of the Eurozone.
Meaning?
Meaning we saw in 2008 how a poorly regulated financial sector can be catastrophic for economic policy. Now you may argue that the City is no longer poorly regulated but that doesn't mean that the Eurozone is necessarily going to take the chance. They will want to have as much control over all factors that can effect them as possible. They will have the City in their sights and Cameron's 'deal' will do nothing to stop them.
Continentals also seem to have the bizarre idea that it is the fund managers screaming that the emperor has no clothes which is the problem rather than the politicians who insist on running a nudist economic policy.
Indeed. I wasn't making any claim that they are right, just that that is the way they think.
It is astonishing how much of the new EU regulations since 2007 have been aimed at investment funds who did not need government support rather than the Banks that did. Investment funds typically had 4x more capital than banks and even those that lost money did not go bust. But it is all too uncontrolled for continental politicians who prefer those who can be lent on.
A narrow Remain vote would not be a vote for the UK to enter the Eurozone, if that were ever the question Leave would almost certainly win. The main consequence of a narrow Remain would be to boost UKIP, I could well see a result in 2020 something like Tories 34%, Labour 31%, UKIP 16% and a hung parliament with UKIP potentially having the balance of power
No I believe today he's in Germany telling Germans how to vote and about his special relationship with Frau Merkel.
I sense a theme here.
I sense a theme here too. I'm reminded of the Salem witch trials. As the Leave campaign implodes time to burn the Kenyan. I think a more effective strategy would be to get rid of the tag team Johnson and Farage who are not only wrecking the Leave campaign but also embarrassing the UK among the rest of the world
I know he commented on Boriss comments, but otherwise farage has been pretty low key, hasn't he?
Some leavers are acting like they've given up, which is not surprising as some were getting in excuses months ago, but there's a long way to go, remain don't have much new to play with from now. Leave can still do this.
What the country are seeing is the shambles that we would face if this bunch took over the reins of power. Nothing to do with staying in or getting out of the EU just understanding how to run a campaign.
At the moment no one in the Leave camp look like they're capable of running a whelk stall. If Cameron wins well I'm sure he'll cull them all. If any of them had any ability they would have seen it coming. It's not over for Leave but they need a serious rethink.
Pardon my ignorance but I didn't think that LEAVE were campaigning for political power/ Did I miss something?
Yes you are missing something. The voters are being asked to make a decision on two distinctly different choices of how we are governed. They will assume (probably rightly) that those running the winning side will be the people who enact that change.
If one side look inept-as they do-who in their right mind would vote to change to them?
Presumably the next Tory leader being in favour of a Brexit was Boris's calculation I am not so sure. We might well see even more of a UKIP effect with more Leavers following the likes of SeanF out of the party leaving a different electorate behind.
I take it that Andrew Marr didn't ask Obama whether the back of the queue was any place to put the largest foreign investor in US business and a country whose companies employ over 1m Americans?
Thought not.
Given current UK investment in the US why prioritise a deal? There's no urgency required.
True. We don't need a deal either. We sell more than $4bn of goods to the US every month as it is. Not bad for a country that is supposedly not good at making things. They don't sell quite so much to us so unlike those with whom we have a free trade agreement we actually run a surplus with the US.
Makes you wonder why Leave have got themselves in such a state over this.
No I believe today he's in Germany telling Germans how to vote and about his special relationship with Frau Merkel.
I sense a theme here.
I know he commented on Boriss comments, but otherwise farage has been pretty low key, hasn't he?
Some leavers are acting like they've given up, which is not surprising as some were getting in excuses months ago, but there's a long way to go, remain don't have much new to play with from now. Leave can still do this.
What the country are seeing is the shambles that we would face if this bunch took over the reins of power. Nothing to do with staying in or getting out of the EU just understanding how to run a campaign.
At the moment no one in the Leave camp look like they're capable of running a whelk stall. If Cameron wins well I'm sure he'll cull them all. If any of them had any ability they would have seen it coming. It's not over for Leave but they need a serious rethink.
The country are also seeing 2 parties attempting to sell their products, one with an advertising budget many times larger than that of the other, and greater media access.
As a Commercials man, you should recognise the advantage. X might be the greatest product ever invented, but it has no chance if Y can swamp it under a deluge of publicity, and has bought up all the media. Happens all the time.
It's not publicity they're short of. Most of the main media outlets are giving both sides equal time and the popular press are generally in favour of Brexit. They need organisation at this point more than money. No one's advertising yet. That'll come later and at that point if they're showing some direction I'm sure the money will come
The Remain supporting side have already spent £9 million on a leaflet campaign, delivering media to every household in the UK.
Presumably the next Tory leader being in favour of a Brexit was Boris's calculation I am not so sure. We might well see even more of a UKIP effect with more Leavers following the likes of SeanF out of the party leaving a different electorate behind.
I take it that Andrew Marr didn't ask Obama whether the back of the queue was any place to put the largest foreign investor in US business and a country whose companies employ over 1m Americans?
Thought not.
Given current UK investment in the US why prioritise a deal? There's no urgency required.
True. We don't need a deal either. We sell more than $4bn of goods to the US every month as it is. Not bad for a country that is supposedly not good at making things. They don't sell quite so much to us so unlike those with whom we have a free trade agreement we actually run a surplus with the US.
Makes you wonder why Leave have got themselves in such a state over this.
Quite so. A calmer and more measured response would have been so much better.
Has Lord Sugar's intervention affected the betting markets for the London mayoralty?
Does anyone have any demographic stats for the number of Jewish voters in London? They don't seem to be particularly enamoured with Mr Khan as a candidate.
Probably about 130,000.
Thanks. I'm trying to work out if there could be any late swing towards Zac or if 10/1 really is a fair price.
Are we expecting any London polling in the next 10 days?
Zac's only real hope is high turnout by AB and older voters in a low turnout election, but I don't think it's much of a hope.
Zak's electoral results in Richmond Park have been very impressive.
But not enough of London is similar to Richmond Park.
Boris's individual appeal has masked the steady sociodemographic disintegration the Conservatives have been suffering in London during the last decade.
The 'Cameron Project' should have been most effective in London and there should also have been an electoral boost from City wealth.
But this has been overwhelmed by the loss of lower middle class votes in middle suburbia and wwc votes on the outer estates.
Has Lord Sugar's intervention affected the betting markets for the London mayoralty?
Does anyone have any demographic stats for the number of Jewish voters in London? They don't seem to be particularly enamoured with Mr Khan as a candidate.
Probably about 130,000.
Thanks. I'm trying to work out if there could be any late swing towards Zac or if 10/1 really is a fair price.
Are we expecting any London polling in the next 10 days?
Zac's only real hope is high turnout by AB and older voters in a low turnout election, but I don't think it's much of a hope.
There are also likely to be more unregistered voters at these elections than before. They are more likely to be Labour supporters than Conservative.
One of the biggest issues of the next three months is whether the pollsters have been, yet again, asking the wrong people the wrong questions.
Presumably the next Tory leader being in favour of a Brexit was Boris's calculation I am not so sure. We might well see even more of a UKIP effect with more Leavers following the likes of SeanF out of the party leaving a different electorate behind.
I take it that Andrew Marr didn't ask Obama whether the back of the queue was any place to put the largest foreign investor in US business and a country whose companies employ over 1m Americans?
Thought not.
Given current UK investment in the US why prioritise a deal? There's no urgency required.
True. We don't need a deal either. We sell more than $4bn of goods to the US every month as it is. Not bad for a country that is supposedly not good at making things. They don't sell quite so much to us so unlike those with whom we have a free trade agreement we actually run a surplus with the US.
Makes you wonder why Leave have got themselves in such a state over this.
Because Johnson and Farage are self serving idiots and publicity whores, and any gaffe they make will always receive full media attention, regardless of what anyone sensible is offering.
Presumably the next Tory leader being in favour of a Brexit was Boris's calculation I am not so sure. We might well see even more of a UKIP effect with more Leavers following the likes of SeanF out of the party leaving a different electorate behind.
I take it that Andrew Marr didn't ask Obama whether the back of the queue was any place to put the largest foreign investor in US business and a country whose companies employ over 1m Americans?
Thought not.
Given current UK investment in the US why prioritise a deal? There's no urgency required.
True. We don't need a deal either. We sell more than $4bn of goods to the US every month as it is. Not bad for a country that is supposedly not good at making things. They don't sell quite so much to us so unlike those with whom we have a free trade agreement we actually run a surplus with the US.
Makes you wonder why Leave have got themselves in such a state over this.
Because their fundamental weakness is that trade with EU countries will suffer if we leave the EU and the Single Market. Their answer to this has never been to challenge this but to argue that the loss of trade with the EU will be more than compensated by increases with trade elsewhere in the World. They argue that the EU is fundamentally a protectionist block that holds us back. So the trading status quo with countries outside the EU is not an option.
Has Lord Sugar's intervention affected the betting markets for the London mayoralty?
Does anyone have any demographic stats for the number of Jewish voters in London? They don't seem to be particularly enamoured with Mr Khan as a candidate.
Probably about 130,000.
Thanks. I'm trying to work out if there could be any late swing towards Zac or if 10/1 really is a fair price.
Are we expecting any London polling in the next 10 days?
Zac's only real hope is high turnout by AB and older voters in a low turnout election, but I don't think it's much of a hope.
There are also likely to be more unregistered voters at these elections than before. They are more likely to be Labour supporters than Conservative.
One of the biggest issues of the next three months is whether the pollsters have been, yet again, asking the wrong people the wrong questions.
A narrow Remain vote would not be a vote for the UK to enter the Eurozone, if that were ever the question Leave would almost certainly win. The main consequence of a narrow Remain would be to boost UKIP, I could well see a result in 2020 something like Tories 34%, Labour 31%, UKIP 16% and a hung parliament with UKIP potentially having the balance of power
According to Electoral Calculus, your share predictions would give UKIP four seats and leave the Tories 18 short of a majority. The SNP would hold the balance of power.
A narrow Remain vote would not be a vote for the UK to enter the Eurozone, if that were ever the question Leave would almost certainly win. The main consequence of a narrow Remain would be to boost UKIP, I could well see a result in 2020 something like Tories 34%, Labour 31%, UKIP 16% and a hung parliament with UKIP potentially having the balance of power
According to Electoral Calculus, your share predictions would give UKIP four seats and leave the Tories 18 short of a majority. The SNP would hold the balance of power.
If you add in the DUP and UUP to the UKIP total that would be more than Labour + SNP
Good article. I think the dissatisfaction with Cameron is that he has gone so hard and early in the campaign, and appears not to care if he leaves behind a massive split in his own party as his legacy so long as the referendum is won.
I think most of those on the Leave side of the Tories expected the debate to be fought under the Queesbury Rules, which clearly hasn't happened. Oh to be Graham Brady's postman on 24th June.
I do not think that is correct but nor do I agree with the other refutations on pb this morning. Really, the remarkable thing about Leave is not that it expected a different fight but that it expected no fight at all.
It is like Nick Clegg with the AV referendum, or Gove at Education. They regard their view on Europe (or schools or AV) as so self-evidently correct that there is no need to campaign for it. They literally do not understand how others might take a different view or, even more mystifying, have no opinion at all. Disagreement can only come from traitors or those with a vested interest -- just as only "the blob" might question Gove's initiatives. (Whatever happened to Gove's anti-blob bagman, Dominic Cummings? *innocent face*)
That sounds about right to me. Leavers are so convinced that they simply cannot understand the undecideds point of view. With the slightest questioning, they go into full on rant mode and the undecided start to back away.
Cummings was a very poor choice as campaign director for this very reason.
It's true of both sides, though. Remain can't comprehend how anyone could think of leaving the EU, now that the big important people have said we should stay. Remainers don't rant, but they patronise.
Yes. Remain are smugger, Leave are more rabid and unfocused.
I think most Remainers have criticisms of the EU and prefer Remain on balance whereas many Leavers have that 100% certainty of born-again Christians and consequently rant at the slightest provocation. The Remain campaign largely just needs to give the Leave campaign enough rope to hang itself as it has done over the past week. However as said to the Leavers who were going on about the trend being to them last week, there is still 2 months to go, anything could happen.
A narrow Remain vote would not be a vote for the UK to enter the Eurozone, if that were ever the question Leave would almost certainly win. The main consequence of a narrow Remain would be to boost UKIP, I could well see a result in 2020 something like Tories 34%, Labour 31%, UKIP 16% and a hung parliament with UKIP potentially having the balance of power
There doesn't need to be a vote on that, as has already been posted down thread.
And anyone hoping for another referendum of any kind in the next decade is fooling themselves. Justine Greening said as much on Friday's 'Any Questions'.
Presumably the next Tory leader being in favour of a Brexit was Boris's calculation I am not so sure. We might well see even more of a UKIP effect with more Leavers following the likes of SeanF out of the party leaving a different electorate behind.
I take it that Andrew Marr didn't ask Obama whether the back of the queue was any place to put the largest foreign investor in US business and a country whose companies employ over 1m Americans?
Thought not.
Given current UK investment in the US why prioritise a deal? There's no urgency required.
True. We don't need a deal either. We sell more than $4bn of goods to the US every month as it is. Not bad for a country that is supposedly not good at making things. They don't sell quite so much to us so unlike those with whom we have a free trade agreement we actually run a surplus with the US.
If we don't need a US deal why were LEAVE so keen to indicate a US trade deal was a shoe-in and so angry that Obama thought a bi-lateral deal would be down the queue.
There's a poll on CapX showing 60% of Americans disagree Britain should be at the back of the queue.
Obama is completely at odd with the views of Americans on this, it seems.
Remain have to be careful here. As do the democrats.
I doubt the average American gives a damn either way. I think that imagining it is going to hurt the Democrats is fanciful to be honest. Of course the Birthers etc will rant about it as an angle to attack Obama but what's new in that.
Presumably the next Tory leader being in favour of a Brexit was Boris's calculation I am not so sure. We might well see even more of a UKIP effect with more Leavers following the likes of SeanF out of the party leaving a different electorate behind.
I take it that Andrew Marr didn't ask Obama whether the back of the queue was any place to put the largest foreign investor in US business and a country whose companies employ over 1m Americans?
Thought not.
Given current UK investment in the US why prioritise a deal? There's no urgency required.
True. We don't need a deal either. We sell more than $4bn of goods to the US every month as it is. Not bad for a country that is supposedly not good at making things. They don't sell quite so much to us so unlike those with whom we have a free trade agreement we actually run a surplus with the US.
Makes you wonder why Leave have got themselves in such a state over this.
Because their fundamental weakness is that trade with EU countries will suffer if we leave the EU and the Single Market. Their answer to this has never been to challenge this but to argue that the loss of trade with the EU will be more than compensated by increases with trade elsewhere in the World. They argue that the EU is fundamentally a protectionist block that holds us back. So the trading status quo with countries outside the EU is not an option.
Yep. It's what puts me in the Remain camp. If we left we'd put full access to the single market at risk in return for no real compensatory benefit elsewhere.
More polling on Obama's condescension would be of use.
It might be new to you but we've had over 7 years of it.
Obnoxious, isn't he?
I don't think most Briton's agree. I read yesterday that he's the most popular politician in the world and twice as popular as any of our own leaders.I doubt the same could have been said of any other recent US presidents
And but for the 22nd Amendment, he'd thrash any of the current GOP line up*.
The big mistake Leave is making, in my view, is to base their campaign on "the EU is bad". All their leaders - Gove, Johnson and Farage - are making it. They should go on "it's time to make our own choices".
The response to someone like Obama would go on the lines of, "Trade negotiations are hard work, but no-one represents Britain better than we do ourselves. If you vote Leave we get our own team to fight our corner. If you vote Leave we get the chance to do it right."
A narrow Remain vote would not be a vote for the UK to enter the Eurozone, if that were ever the question Leave would almost certainly win. The main consequence of a narrow Remain would be to boost UKIP, I could well see a result in 2020 something like Tories 34%, Labour 31%, UKIP 16% and a hung parliament with UKIP potentially having the balance of power
According to Electoral Calculus, your share predictions would give UKIP four seats and leave the Tories 18 short of a majority. The SNP would hold the balance of power.
If you add in the DUP and UUP to the UKIP total that would be more than Labour + SNP
But not more than Lab + SNP +LD + Green + PC + SDLP. It would be very close. It would be truly hung.
I argued yesterday that Cameron was primarily motivated by simply wanting to go out with a big win. But the way things are going, a side-effect (intended or not) may be to marginalise the whole idea of Euroscepticism, which would significantly change British political dynamics.
That's what happened for a while after 1975. Euroscepticism was associated with Benn and Powell, and had been handsomely defeated. For the following 20 years, politicians were wary of touching it - like saying they believed in homeopathy or an imminent Second Coming, it self-labelled them as eccentric.
That changed in recent years, as resentment over various aspects of the EU built up and UKIP became a significant force. But Leave's campaign so far, as Hodge caustically points out, is encouraging the impression that being Eurosceptic is a little embarrassing. IMO they need to curb Boris and use Gove more - like him or not, he is clearly an intelligent, serious politician with a bit of gravitas, and the rest of the team are mostly not.
You've talked some grade A tripe over the past few days. Since WHEN has euroscepticism been socially acceptable? It's always been akin to stepping in something and no-one wanting to mention it, and its beyond the pale status was cemented by the completely unjustified villification of UKIP and Farage in the most recent GE. Nevertheless it has steadily grown in popularity, and pressure will continue to build as it is pushed down.
Furthermore, the last thing Vote Leave need to do is push forward the idealistic Tory burblers in their team, who have: -Fallen into the trap of providing their prospectus for post-Leave (how could they resist someone asking their opinion?) -Gone on about freeing the rest of Europe (none of our business frankly) -Totally failed to come up with a coherent line on the US intervention -Are just running a shambolic campaign generally
I really don't know whether your recommendation is dishonest (a la Meeks or Nabavi's kindly advice to Leave) or just daft.
Polling shows a (to my mind, surprising) degree of unhappiness with President Obama's intervention. It may well be that Boris Johnson's comments are resonating with more of the voters than commentators want to believe.
I certainly think that Remain are being premature in celebrating victory before it's happened.
Is this just based on that Yougov thing from yesterday?
'a larger research project that examined the sense of attachment to place expressed by three generations of the South Asian communities in Redbridge. While the older and younger generation were very clear in the attachment they feel towards where the area where they live, the group of 30-somethings were almost universal in their dislike of the area, and more specifically what they perceived as a decline in the physical look of Redbridge, which was seen as going ‘downhill’. What was striking was how they attributed this decline to the particular material practices of the expanding Asian community, which had almost doubled in size within the previous ten years '
I'm sure Sunil would find this report very interesting.
A narrow Remain vote would not be a vote for the UK to enter the Eurozone, if that were ever the question Leave would almost certainly win. The main consequence of a narrow Remain would be to boost UKIP, I could well see a result in 2020 something like Tories 34%, Labour 31%, UKIP 16% and a hung parliament with UKIP potentially having the balance of power
According to Electoral Calculus, your share predictions would give UKIP four seats and leave the Tories 18 short of a majority. The SNP would hold the balance of power.
If you add in the DUP and UUP to the UKIP total that would be more than Labour + SNP
But not more than Lab + SNP +LD + Green + PC + SDLP. It would be very close. It would be truly hung.
Indeed and another election would probably not be too far off, you would also need to consider what impact the boundary changes would have too
Wimbledon 27 June 2016 New Championship Rules as published by the Leave Campaign. 1. All matches shall be umpired by the PM in a strictly neutral manner. 2. The USA number 1 seed is hereby disqualified as being partly Kenyan. 3.Any winning shot played against a British competitor shall be called OUT in an angry voice. 4.Abuse of all European competitors and the umpire is encouraged. 5. All competition officials shall wear hideous blazers. 6.EU racquets will not be tolerated. 7.The 2016 winners shall be- Mens Singles B.Johnson Ladies Singles M Le Pen Mens Doubles Farage and Galloway Mixed Doubles V Putin and Miss Le Pen.
A narrow Remain vote would not be a vote for the UK to enter the Eurozone, if that were ever the question Leave would almost certainly win. The main consequence of a narrow Remain would be to boost UKIP, I could well see a result in 2020 something like Tories 34%, Labour 31%, UKIP 16% and a hung parliament with UKIP potentially having the balance of power
There doesn't need to be a vote on that, as has already been posted down thread.
And anyone hoping for another referendum of any kind in the next decade is fooling themselves. Justine Greening said as much on Friday's 'Any Questions'.
With 90%+ of the UK population opposed to the Euro no political party, the Tories nor Labour, is going to take the UK in and certainly not without a referendum
Presumably the next Tory leader being in favour of a Brexit was Boris's calculation I am not so sure. We might well see even more of a UKIP effect with more Leavers following the likes of SeanF out of the party leaving a different electorate behind.
I take it that Andrew Marr didn't ask Obama whether the back of the queue was any place to put the largest foreign investor in US business and a country whose companies employ over 1m Americans?
Thought not.
Given current UK investment in the US why prioritise a deal? There's no urgency required.
True. We don't need a deal either. We sell more than $4bn of goods to the US every month as it is. Not bad for a country that is supposedly not good at making things. They don't sell quite so much to us so unlike those with whom we have a free trade agreement we actually run a surplus with the US.
If we don't need a US deal why were LEAVE so keen to indicate a US trade deal was a shoe-in and so angry that Obama thought a bi-lateral deal would be down the queue.
Perplexing.
Because most of the people high up in Vote Leave are atlantacist morons with stars and stripes in their eyes.
Reading the Sunday papers there's quite a few Leavers who have given up the fight, this has been a shite week for them.
I haven't seen the articles but i'm not surprised. It's not the incoherence which they can recover from it's lining up behind Boris Johnson who has not only shown himself to be inept but really quite unpleasant. The contrast with Obama's refined cool has been so striking I'd be surprised if they don't ditch him this week
Here's one
Some privately admitted they fear they are heading for defeat in the referendum on June 23.
Prominent pro-'Leave' Tory MP Peter Bone said: 'Our message is being drowned out by the Government.'
And one 'Leave' official said: 'We had no idea Boris was going to attack Obama so provocatively. It was a misjudgment. He must stop going off-piste.'
Obama's intervention is seen as a potential game-changer in the referendum campaign, with some 'Remain' supporters predicting a decisive 60-40 victory.
Interesting. The Obama intervention has made the whole contest more toxic particularly amongst Conservatives. Farage on Any Questions yesterday was so rabid it raised questions about anyone who shares a platform with him. There are six Brexit Cabinet ministers Patel Whittingdale Villiers IDS Grayling and Gove. After this week I'd be surprised if any survive a Remain win.
Farage, Johnson and today, on radio 4, Howard - can't understand why the leave campaign is going so badly!
Boris should have restricted himself to the amiable buffoon with a clever turn of phrase status but he couldn't help himself or help LEAVE into the bargain.
“Prime Minister Netanyahu has injected himself forcefully into this debate on American foreign policy in Washington,” Zakaria said. To which the President replied, “Right.”
The CNN host continued, “Can you recall a time when a foreign head of government has done that. Is it appropriate for a foreign head of government to inject himself into an American debate?”
Reading the Sunday papers there's quite a few Leavers who have given up the fight, this has been a shite week for them.
I haven't seen the articles but i'm not surprised. It's not the incoherence which they can recover from it's lining up behind Boris Johnson who has not only shown himself to be inept but really quite unpleasant. The contrast with Obama's refined cool has been so striking I'd be surprised if they don't ditch him this week
Here's one
Some privately admitted they fear they are heading for defeat in the referendum on June 23.
Prominent pro-'Leave' Tory MP Peter Bone said: 'Our message is being drowned out by the Government.'
And one 'Leave' official said: 'We had no idea Boris was going to attack Obama so provocatively. It was a misjudgment. He must stop going off-piste.'
Obama's intervention is seen as a potential game-changer in the referendum campaign, with some 'Remain' supporters predicting a decisive 60-40 victory.
Interesting. The Obama intervention has made the whole contest more toxic particularly amongst Conservatives. Farage on Any Questions yesterday was so rabid it raised questions about anyone who shares a platform with him. There are six Brexit Cabinet ministers Patel Whittingdale Villiers IDS Grayling and Gove. After this week I'd be surprised if any survive a Remain win.
If they don't then the Tory party will be lucky to survive.
Presumably the next Tory leader being in favour of a Brexit was Boris's calculation I am not so sure. We might well see even more of a UKIP effect with more Leavers following the likes of SeanF out of the party leaving a different electorate behind.
I take it that Andrew Marr didn't ask Obama whether the back of the queue was any place to put the largest foreign investor in US business and a country whose companies employ over 1m Americans?
Thought not.
Given current UK investment in the US why prioritise a deal? There's no urgency required.
True. We don't need a deal either. We sell more than $4bn of goods to the US every month as it is. Not bad for a country that is supposedly not good at making things. They don't sell quite so much to us so unlike those with whom we have a free trade agreement we actually run a surplus with the US.
If we don't need a US deal why were LEAVE so keen to indicate a US trade deal was a shoe-in and so angry that Obama thought a bi-lateral deal would be down the queue.
Perplexing.
Because most of the people high up in Vote Leave are atlantacist morons with stars and stripes in their eyes.
Then I'd venture to suggest the ducking stool status belong to them and not their so called "lame duck President" from across the pond.
There's a poll on CapX showing 60% of Americans disagree Britain should be at the back of the queue.
Obama is completely at odd with the views of Americans on this, it seems.
Remain have to be careful here. As do the democrats.
I doubt the average American gives a damn either way. I think that imagining it is going to hurt the Democrats is fanciful to be honest. Of course the Birthers etc will rant about it as an angle to attack Obama but what's new in that.
But... if the Republicans can get the US media to bite.... "President insults best ally" is a very bad headline.
Reading the Sunday papers there's quite a few Leavers who have given up the fight, this has been a shite week for them.
I haven't seen the articles but i'm not surprised. It's not the incoherence which they can recover from it's lining up behind Boris Johnson who has not only shown himself to be inept but really quite unpleasant. The contrast with Obama's refined cool has been so striking I'd be surprised if they don't ditch him this week
Here's one
Some privately admitted they fear they are heading for defeat in the referendum on June 23.
Prominent pro-'Leave' Tory MP Peter Bone said: 'Our message is being drowned out by the Government.'
And one 'Leave' official said: 'We had no idea Boris was going to attack Obama so provocatively. It was a misjudgment. He must stop going off-piste.'
Obama's intervention is seen as a potential game-changer in the referendum campaign, with some 'Remain' supporters predicting a decisive 60-40 victory.
Interesting. The Obama intervention has made the whole contest more toxic particularly amongst Conservatives. Farage on Any Questions yesterday was so rabid it raised questions about anyone who shares a platform with him. There are six Brexit Cabinet ministers Patel Whittingdale Villiers IDS Grayling and Gove. After this week I'd be surprised if any survive a Remain win.
Great, they can join UKIP and take over half the parliamentary Tory party with them.
Reading the Sunday papers there's quite a few Leavers who have given up the fight, this has been a shite week for them.
I haven't seen the articles but i'm not surprised. It's not the incoherence which they can recover from it's lining up behind Boris Johnson who has not only shown himself to be inept but really quite unpleasant. The contrast with Obama's refined cool has been so striking I'd be surprised if they don't ditch him this week
Here's one
Some privately admitted they fear they are heading for defeat in the referendum on June 23.
Prominent pro-'Leave' Tory MP Peter Bone said: 'Our message is being drowned out by the Government.'
And one 'Leave' official said: 'We had no idea Boris was going to attack Obama so provocatively. It was a misjudgment. He must stop going off-piste.'
Obama's intervention is seen as a potential game-changer in the referendum campaign, with some 'Remain' supporters predicting a decisive 60-40 victory.
Interesting. The Obama intervention has made the whole contest more toxic particularly amongst Conservatives. Farage on Any Questions yesterday was so rabid it raised questions about anyone who shares a platform with him. There are six Brexit Cabinet ministers Patel Whittingdale Villiers IDS Grayling and Gove. After this week I'd be surprised if any survive a Remain win.
Morning all,
As a Remainer, I have long predicted a Leave win and have never been happy about Cameron offering a referendum like this, just for party reasons.
Thanks to the utter shambles that Leave seems be in, I am beginning to think Remain will pull it off after all. I had no idea that so little thought had gone into how to win the campaign for Leave after all these years of moaning about lack of a referendum. Their message handling over the last week has been atrocious frankly.
Presumably the next Tory leader being in favour of a Brexit was Boris's calculation I am not so sure. We might well see even more of a UKIP effect with more Leavers following the likes of SeanF out of the party leaving a different electorate behind.
I take it that Andrew Marr didn't ask Obama whether the back of the queue was any place to put the largest foreign investor in US business and a country whose companies employ over 1m Americans?
Thought not.
Given current UK investment in the US why prioritise a deal? There's no urgency required.
True. We don't need a deal either. We sell more than $4bn of goods to the US every month as it is. Not bad for a country that is supposedly not good at making things. They don't sell quite so much to us so unlike those with whom we have a free trade agreement we actually run a surplus with the US.
If we don't need a US deal why were LEAVE so keen to indicate a US trade deal was a shoe-in and so angry that Obama thought a bi-lateral deal would be down the queue.
Polling shows a (to my mind, surprising) degree of unhappiness with President Obama's intervention. It may well be that Boris Johnson's comments are resonating with more of the voters than commentators want to believe.
I certainly think that Remain are being premature in celebrating victory before it's happened.
Is this just based on that Yougov thing from yesterday?
You've talked some grade A tripe over the past few days. Since WHEN has euroscepticism been socially acceptable? It's always been akin to stepping in something and no-one wanting to mention it, and its beyond the pale status was cemented by the completely unjustified villification of UKIP and Farage in the most recent GE. Nevertheless it has steadily grown in popularity, and pressure will continue to build as it is pushed down.
Furthermore, the last thing Vote Leave need to do is push forward the idealistic Tory burblers in their team, who have: -Fallen into the trap of providing their prospectus for post-Leave (how could they resist someone asking their opinion?) -Gone on about freeing the rest of Europe (none of our business frankly) -Totally failed to come up with a coherent line on the US intervention -Are just running a shambolic campaign generally
I really don't know whether your recommendation is dishonest (a la Meeks or Nabavi's kindly advice to Leave) or just daft.
First, I don't harbour any illusions that anything that we write here (especially downthread) is going to influence anything in the slightest, I'm just chatting. Dishonest advice would just be a waste of time.
Euroscepticism has been quite normal outside Guardian circles for a while. But most people shy away from anything that seems a bit nutty, and it seems to me that Leave is overpopulated with people who reinforce that perception - their front men are Boris and Farage, with folk like Bone and Galloway in the next rank. The people you call idealistic Tory burblers (I was suggesting Gove) might be misguided but you can't really call them nutty.
But hey, it's not my campaign. You feel the answer is more Boris and more Farage, or what?
Your criticism that they're running a shambolic campaign and not coming up with a coherent line is a bit pointless since they don't have a unified leadership. You might as well ask PB to come up with a coherent position that we'd all fall behind. Won't happen.
“Prime Minister Netanyahu has injected himself forcefully into this debate on American foreign policy in Washington,” Zakaria said. To which the President replied, “Right.”
The CNN host continued, “Can you recall a time when a foreign head of government has done that. Is it appropriate for a foreign head of government to inject himself into an American debate?”
LEAVE practically invited Obama to comment when they said a US trade deal was as good as in the bag. A banana skin that LEAVE happily saw, inspected, admired and then proceeded to complain about when they inexplicably fell on their collective arse.
You couldn't make some of this level of rank stupidity and political incompetence up unless you were presently running the office of LotO.
There's a poll on CapX showing 60% of Americans disagree Britain should be at the back of the queue.
Obama is completely at odd with the views of Americans on this, it seems.
Remain have to be careful here. As do the democrats.
I doubt the average American gives a damn either way. I think that imagining it is going to hurt the Democrats is fanciful to be honest. Of course the Birthers etc will rant about it as an angle to attack Obama but what's new in that.
But... if the Republicans can get the US media to bite.... "President insults best ally" is a very bad headline.
The UK is only the US's best ally when they're talking to the UK. It's not a hugely important issue to US voters.
So what sort of magnitude of polling boost are PBers expecting from the Obama intervention and the ensuing Leave response?
Not massive, maybe 2-3% tilt towards remain at this stage. But the seed will have been planted.
Leave's problem is they spent the week shoring up their base effectively, by trotting a load of nonsensical reasons why Obama shouldn't be listened to which only committed Leave people would find valid e.g. his Dad was from Kenya.
Reading the Sunday papers there's quite a few Leavers who have given up the fight, this has been a shite week for them.
I haven't seen the articles but i'm not surprised. It's not the incoherence which they can recover from it's lining up behind Boris Johnson who has not only shown himself to be inept but really quite unpleasant. The contrast with Obama's refined cool has been so striking I'd be surprised if they don't ditch him this week
Here's one
Some privately admitted they fear they are heading for defeat in the referendum on June 23.
Prominent pro-'Leave' Tory MP Peter Bone said: 'Our message is being drowned out by the Government.'
And one 'Leave' official said: 'We had no idea Boris was going to attack Obama so provocatively. It was a misjudgment. He must stop going off-piste.'
Obama's intervention is seen as a potential game-changer in the referendum campaign, with some 'Remain' supporters predicting a decisive 60-40 victory.
Interesting. The Obama intervention has made the whole contest more toxic particularly amongst Conservatives. Farage on Any Questions yesterday was so rabid it raised questions about anyone who shares a platform with him. There are six Brexit Cabinet ministers Patel Whittingdale Villiers IDS Grayling and Gove. After this week I'd be surprised if any survive a Remain win.
I guess the fact that Whittingdale is pro-Brexit is possibly the only reason he hasn't gone already.
Presumably the next Tory leader being in favour of a Brexit was Boris's calculation I am not so sure. We might well see even more of a UKIP effect with more Leavers following the likes of SeanF out of the party leaving a different electorate behind.
I take it that Andrew Marr didn't ask Obama whether the back of the queue was any place to put the largest foreign investor in US business and a country whose companies employ over 1m Americans?
Thought not.
Given current UK investment in the US why prioritise a deal? There's no urgency required.
True. We don't need a deal either. We sell more than $4bn of goods to the US every month as it is. Not bad for a country that is supposedly not good at making things. They don't sell quite so much to us so unlike those with whom we have a free trade agreement we actually run a surplus with the US.
If we don't need a US deal why were LEAVE so keen to indicate a US trade deal was a shoe-in and so angry that Obama thought a bi-lateral deal would be down the queue.
Perplexing.
Because most of the people high up in Vote Leave are atlantacist morons with stars and stripes in their eyes.
Then I'd venture to suggest the ducking stool status belong to them and not their so called "lame duck President" from across the pond.
I don't condemn Obama for doing it - he's done far worse in the name of US geo-strategic policy than abandon a few diplomatic niceties. But Leave should have gone for the jugular, with one single line of attack comprising two points: -Hypocrisy - why don't they join then? -Out for their own interests People already believe the US is in everything for themselves - it will resonate with everyone from a rabid left winger to a right wing retired Colonel. And the flagrant hypocrisy only needs pointing out.
Vote Leave's lovesick atlanticists couldn't do that. Liam Fox was shit. Gove I don't even remember. Nigel and Boris were better, but got too personal and psychological.
HAVING SAID THAT, Leaves response isn't the main story, so we must wait, possibly until the vote itself, to see how this intervention plays out.
Reading the Sunday papers there's quite a few Leavers who have given up the fight, this has been a shite week for them.
I haven't seen the articles but i'm not surprised. It's not the incoherence which they can recover from it's lining up behind Boris Johnson who has not only shown himself to be inept but really quite unpleasant. The contrast with Obama's refined cool has been so striking I'd be surprised if they don't ditch him this week
Here's one
Some privately admitted they fear they are heading for defeat in the referendum on June 23.
Prominent pro-'Leave' Tory MP Peter Bone said: 'Our message is being drowned out by the Government.'
And one 'Leave' official said: 'We had no idea Boris was going to attack Obama so provocatively. It was a misjudgment. He must stop going off-piste.'
Obama's intervention is seen as a potential game-changer in the referendum campaign, with some 'Remain' supporters predicting a decisive 60-40 victory.
Interesting. The Obama intervention has made the whole contest more toxic particularly amongst Conservatives. Farage on Any Questions yesterday was so rabid it raised questions about anyone who shares a platform with him. There are six Brexit Cabinet ministers Patel Whittingdale Villiers IDS Grayling and Gove. After this week I'd be surprised if any survive a Remain win.
Great, they can join UKIP and take over half the parliamentary Tory party with them.
So what sort of magnitude of polling boost are PBers expecting from the Obama intervention and the ensuing Leave response?
Not massive, maybe 2-3% tilt towards remain at this stage. But the seed will have been planted.
Leave's problem is they spent the week shoring up their base effectively, by trotting a load of nonsensical reasons why Obama shouldn't be listened to which only committed Leave people would find valid e.g. his Dad was from Kenya.
No, Leave's response isn't a problem - no-one except us cares. It's all about how Obama will go down. 2 to 3% seems quite conservative for such an enormous endorsement?
Yep. It's what puts me in the Remain camp. If we left we'd put full access to the single market at risk in return for no real compensatory benefit elsewhere.
To be honest, Mr Observer, the trade stuff leaves me cold. What is now the UK has been trading with the continent of Europe since the Bronze Age, it didn't start in 1973 and it won't stop if we vote to leave. Likewise we trade with the wider world, I am serving a Chilean wine with lunch today, I drive a Japanese made car, and I am typing this by way of a Korean made monitor - I am fairly sure we don't have a single market with any of those countries. Yet we manage to trade with them and they manage to sell us their products at prices I can afford. Trade happens, has always happened, when one group wants to sell something that others want to buy at prices they can afford.
The Uk's current account deficit has very little to do with the EU and, say this quietly, very little to do with HMG. It is much more governed by the appalling state of the management of UK industry, especially the big companies.
So, to come back to the EU debate, we can and do trade everywhere. On those bodies (e.g. WTO) that make the rules the UK would have more influence than as as 1/28 of the voice of one of the participants.
However, the key point for me is whether the UK, a nation of 60+ million people and the 5th biggest economy on the planet, should have its own say on how it is governed.
“Prime Minister Netanyahu has injected himself forcefully into this debate on American foreign policy in Washington,” Zakaria said. To which the President replied, “Right.”
The CNN host continued, “Can you recall a time when a foreign head of government has done that. Is it appropriate for a foreign head of government to inject himself into an American debate?”
LEAVE practically invited Obama to comment when they said a US trade deal was as good as in the bag. A banana skin that LEAVE happily saw, inspected, admired and then proceeded to complain about when they inexplicably fell on their collective arse.
You couldn't make some of this level of rank stupidity and political incompetence up unless you were presently running the office of LotO.
Come now, don't be ridiculous. I don't think the POTUS' travel plans are dictated by the pronouncements of Fox and Gove somehow.
Presumably the next Tory leader being in favour of a Brexit was Boris's calculation I am not so sure. We might well see even more of a UKIP effect with more Leavers following the likes of SeanF out of the party leaving a different electorate behind.
I take it that Andrew Marr didn't ask Obama whether the back of the queue was any place to put the largest foreign investor in US business and a country whose companies employ over 1m Americans?
Thought not.
Given current UK investment in the US why prioritise a deal? There's no urgency required.
True. We don't need a deal either. We sell more than $4bn of goods to the US every month as it is. Not bad for a country that is supposedly not good at making things. They don't sell quite so much to us so unlike those with whom we have a free trade agreement we actually run a surplus with the US.
If we don't need a US deal why were LEAVE so keen to indicate a US trade deal was a shoe-in and so angry that Obama thought a bi-lateral deal would be down the queue.
“Prime Minister Netanyahu has injected himself forcefully into this debate on American foreign policy in Washington,” Zakaria said. To which the President replied, “Right.”
The CNN host continued, “Can you recall a time when a foreign head of government has done that. Is it appropriate for a foreign head of government to inject himself into an American debate?”
LEAVE practically invited Obama to comment when they said a US trade deal was as good as in the bag. A banana skin that LEAVE happily saw, inspected, admired and then proceeded to complain about when they inexplicably fell on their collective arse.
You couldn't make some of this level of rank stupidity and political incompetence up unless you were presently running the office of LotO.
Yes, this is a referendum in which people will vote against utopian dreamers. Superficially this might put Remain on the defensive but so far it's the Leave campaign that has painted itself into a corner.
“Prime Minister Netanyahu has injected himself forcefully into this debate on American foreign policy in Washington,” Zakaria said. To which the President replied, “Right.”
The CNN host continued, “Can you recall a time when a foreign head of government has done that. Is it appropriate for a foreign head of government to inject himself into an American debate?”
You couldn't make some of this level of rank stupidity and political incompetence up unless you were presently running the office of LotO.
Or a Conservative leader hoping to win an election in 2020 with an obviously divided party.
So what sort of magnitude of polling boost are PBers expecting from the Obama intervention and the ensuing Leave response?
Not massive, maybe 2-3% tilt towards remain at this stage. But the seed will have been planted.
Leave's problem is they spent the week shoring up their base effectively, by trotting a load of nonsensical reasons why Obama shouldn't be listened to which only committed Leave people would find valid e.g. his Dad was from Kenya.
Remain's problem is they have played all their cards - and spent their £9m - whilst most of the population still aren't remotely engaged with the Referendum....
They also have the slight problem that they still haven't come up with up any convincing arguments to show they believe in the EU being something of merit we should join. Only that now we are in, it would be too scary to depart the warmth of the huddle.
Remainers cheat like hell to win the referendum and then call Leave bad losers for pointing out the result becomes illegitimate. I'm sorry but when everyone from the Electoral Commission to George Osborne's own uncle say it's unfair, the bad loser charge falls completely flat. If you wanted the result to be accepted, you should not have broken the EU's own advice on fair referenda.
The media conversation is being dominated by macroeconomics. That sails over most people's heads.
Leave need to bring the conversation back to real individual cost with clear cut pledges through to the next election. They also need to concentrate on the social and cultural impacts domestically. Taxes, wages, prices, welfare costs, housing, healthcare.
Obama has basically acknowledged that Brexit are correct on a US trade deal:
""It's fair to say that maybe some point down the line there might be a UK-US trade agreement...."
There's a poll on CapX showing 60% of Americans disagree Britain should be at the back of the queue.
Obama is completely at odd with the views of Americans on this, it seems.
Remain have to be careful here. As do the democrats.
I doubt the average American gives a damn either way. I think that imagining it is going to hurt the Democrats is fanciful to be honest. Of course the Birthers etc will rant about it as an angle to attack Obama but what's new in that.
But... if the Republicans can get the US media to bite.... "President insults best ally" is a very bad headline.
By November the UK will either have voted to Remain, in which case Obama and Clinton will have backed the winning side, or to Leave in which case there may be a minor boost to Trump if he promises the UK a better deal
Yep. It's what puts me in the Remain camp. If we left we'd put full access to the single market at risk in return for no real compensatory benefit elsewhere.
To be honest, Mr Observer, the trade stuff leaves me cold. What is now the UK has been trading with the continent of Europe since the Bronze Age, it didn't start in 1973 and it won't stop if we vote to leave. Likewise we trade with the wider world, I am serving a Chilean wine with lunch today, I drive a Japanese made car, and I am typing this by way of a Korean made monitor - I am fairly sure we don't have a single market with any of those countries. Yet we manage to trade with them and they manage to sell us their products at prices I can afford. Trade happens, has always happened, when one group wants to sell something that others want to buy at prices they can afford.
The Uk's current account deficit has very little to do with the EU and, say this quietly, very little to do with HMG. It is much more governed by the appalling state of the management of UK industry, especially the big companies.
So, to come back to the EU debate, we can and do trade everywhere. On those bodies (e.g. WTO) that make the rules the UK would have more influence than as as 1/28 of the voice of one of the participants.
However, the key point for me is whether the UK, a nation of 60+ million people and the 5th biggest economy on the planet, should have its own say on how it is governed.
This might well be the best post on this topic I have read thus far.
“Prime Minister Netanyahu has injected himself forcefully into this debate on American foreign policy in Washington,” Zakaria said. To which the President replied, “Right.”
The CNN host continued, “Can you recall a time when a foreign head of government has done that. Is it appropriate for a foreign head of government to inject himself into an American debate?”
LEAVE practically invited Obama to comment when they said a US trade deal was as good as in the bag. A banana skin that LEAVE happily saw, inspected, admired and then proceeded to complain about when they inexplicably fell on their collective arse.
You couldn't make some of this level of rank stupidity and political incompetence up unless you were presently running the office of LotO.
Yes, this is a referendum in which people will vote against utopian dreamers. Superficially this might put Remain on the defensive but so far it's the Leave campaign that has painted itself into a corner.
The Utopian dreamers are those like the author of the last thread who claim EU Reform is still possible. After attempt beyond attempt to change the EU, we still have the ridiculous situation of farming subsidies as large as ever and a monthly trek to Strasbourg. To still believe in EU Reform at this point, you have to be in denial on par with a battered wife going back to her husband for the eighth time. It would be comic if it were not so tragic.
Off topic, anyone know what the most likely cause of a PC suffering PCU overheating problems would be? All the fans etc seem to be operating correctly, and I'll have to get it checked properly anyway, but it's be neat to know what sort of cost range is probable, depending on what might be the problem.
Could Boris be positioning himself as the leavers' Nicola Sturgeon? Perhaps he is actively trying to sabotage the leave campaign because he doesn't really believe in it but thinks it gives him a good chance of being the next Tory leader. He then gets to be PM and represent the 45%(?) whilst quietly putting the issue on the back-burner.
Off topic, anyone know what the most likely cause of a PC suffering PCU overheating problems would be? All the fans etc seem to be operating correctly, and I'll have to get it checked properly anyway, but it's be neat to know what sort of cost range is probable, depending on what might be the problem.
The fans might be clogged with dust. Put the hoover on it, or blow them out with a bicycle pump
[Remain] also have the slight problem that they still haven't come up with up any convincing arguments to show they believe in the EU being something of merit we should join. Only that now we are in, it would be too scary to depart the warmth of the huddle.
Remain have tricky argument to get across, which is that a glass half full is better than no glass at all. Hardly an inspiring message. Which makes it even more surprising that Leave are mucking up quite so comprehensively.
Could Boris be positioning himself as the leavers' Nicola Sturgeon? Perhaps he is actively trying to sabotage the leave campaign because he doesn't really believe in it but thinks it gives him a good chance of being the next Tory leader.
After this week BoJo Will Never Be Conservative Leader.
Off topic, anyone know what the most likely cause of a PC suffering PCU overheating problems would be? All the fans etc seem to be operating correctly, and I'll have to get it checked properly anyway, but it's be neat to know what sort of cost range is probable, depending on what might be the problem.
The fans might be clogged with dust. Put the hoover on it, or blow them out with a bicycle pump
Tried that one (and it was really effing dusty). Stopped it shutting down for a day or two, but now it's doing so again, sadly.
“Prime Minister Netanyahu has injected himself forcefully into this debate on American foreign policy in Washington,” Zakaria said. To which the President replied, “Right.”
The CNN host continued, “Can you recall a time when a foreign head of government has done that. Is it appropriate for a foreign head of government to inject himself into an American debate?”
LEAVE practically invited Obama to comment when they said a US trade deal was as good as in the bag. A banana skin that LEAVE happily saw, inspected, admired and then proceeded to complain about when they inexplicably fell on their collective arse.
You couldn't make some of this level of rank stupidity and political incompetence up unless you were presently running the office of LotO.
Yes, this is a referendum in which people will vote against utopian dreamers. Superficially this might put Remain on the defensive but so far it's the Leave campaign that has painted itself into a corner.
With two months remaining there will be significant twists and turns. REMAIN will have bad days or even a week, the polls may narrow again and the ebb and flow of the campaign will have PB in a fearful lather.
However IMHO LEAVE will look back at the year leading to the referendum and these past few weeks as a total f*ck up. Their organization, such that there is one, is a shambles, their collective "leadership" has all the direction, cohesion and message direction of a fart in a gale.
Decent, honourable and insightful LEAVE campaigners, and there are many (including on PB) must be absolutely horrified at the present state of affairs. Who could blame them.
However IMHO LEAVE will look back at the year leading to the referendum and these past few weeks as a total f*ck up. Their organization, such that there is one, is a shambles, their collective "leadership" has all the direction, cohesion and message direction of a fart in a gale.
And Farage has taken the opportunity today to again take aim at the Remain campaign and the Euro Elite his fellow Outers...
“Prime Minister Netanyahu has injected himself forcefully into this debate on American foreign policy in Washington,” Zakaria said. To which the President replied, “Right.”
The CNN host continued, “Can you recall a time when a foreign head of government has done that. Is it appropriate for a foreign head of government to inject himself into an American debate?”
LEAVE practically invited Obama to comment when they said a US trade deal was as good as in the bag. A banana skin that LEAVE happily saw, inspected, admired and then proceeded to complain about when they inexplicably fell on their collective arse.
You couldn't make some of this level of rank stupidity and political incompetence up unless you were presently running the office of LotO.
Come now, don't be ridiculous. I don't think the POTUS' travel plans are dictated by the pronouncements of Fox and Gove somehow.
Clearly, but LEAVE provided Obama and Cameron with total cover for comments Obama was going to make regardless. You don't provide you opponent with a shield when he's entering the field of battle .... unless you're working the grid for LEAVE.
Remainers cheat like hell to win the referendum and then call Leave bad losers for pointing out the result becomes illegitimate. I'm sorry but when everyone from the Electoral Commission to George Osborne's own uncle say it's unfair, the bad loser charge falls completely flat. If you wanted the result to be accepted, you should not have broken the EU's own advice on fair referenda.
Off topic, anyone know what the most likely cause of a PC suffering PCU overheating problems would be? All the fans etc seem to be operating correctly, and I'll have to get it checked properly anyway, but it's be neat to know what sort of cost range is probable, depending on what might be the problem.
The fans might be clogged with dust. Put the hoover on it, or blow them out with a bicycle pump
Tried that one (and it was really effing dusty). Stopped it shutting down for a day or two, but now it's doing so again, sadly.
Proably an old and tired processor fan, It should be possible to buy a replacement for a couple of quid before replacing anything more expensive.
The media conversation is being dominated by macroeconomics. That sails over most people's heads.
Leave need to bring the conversation back to real individual cost with clear cut pledges through to the next election. They also need to concentrate on the social and cultural impacts domestically. Taxes, wages, prices, welfare costs, housing, healthcare.
Obama has basically acknowledged that Brexit are correct on a US trade deal:
""It's fair to say that maybe some point down the line there might be a UK-US trade agreement...."
Remainers cheat like hell to win the referendum and then call Leave bad losers for pointing out the result becomes illegitimate. I'm sorry but when everyone from the Electoral Commission to George Osborne's own uncle say it's unfair, the bad loser charge falls completely flat. If you wanted the result to be accepted, you should not have broken the EU's own advice on fair referenda.
Cue 300 jeering posts from ScottP, about Leave whiners.
Back to the future, will HMG manage to pass any legislation post referendum?
Comments
Farage: "Obama is not a pro-British president…"
Obama is completely at odd with the views of Americans on this, it seems.
Remain have to be careful here. As do the democrats.
If one side look inept-as they do-who in their right mind would vote to change to them?
But not enough of London is similar to Richmond Park.
Boris's individual appeal has masked the steady sociodemographic disintegration the Conservatives have been suffering in London during the last decade.
The 'Cameron Project' should have been most effective in London and there should also have been an electoral boost from City wealth.
But this has been overwhelmed by the loss of lower middle class votes in middle suburbia and wwc votes on the outer estates.
Because Johnson and Farage are self serving idiots and publicity whores, and any gaffe they make will always receive full media attention, regardless of what anyone sensible is offering.
It does sound sort of fun though.
Is your excellent humour on account of your overnight elevation as the PRAT - Professor Regius of Ayrshire Turnip studies?
And anyone hoping for another referendum of any kind in the next decade is fooling themselves. Justine Greening said as much on Friday's 'Any Questions'.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2016/04/23/queue-obamas-use-of-british-english-makes-brits-suspicious/?hpid=hp_hp-cards_hp-card-world:homepage/card
Perplexing.
I doubt the average American gives a damn either way. I think that imagining it is going to hurt the Democrats is fanciful to be honest. Of course the Birthers etc will rant about it as an angle to attack Obama but what's new in that.
*So bad they make Romney look good.
http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/donald-tusk-we-should-not-negotiate-our-values-with-erdogan-a-1088815.html#ref=nl-international
I find it very hard to disagree with his arguments but I struggle to match the rhetoric with what actually seems to be happening.
The response to someone like Obama would go on the lines of, "Trade negotiations are hard work, but no-one represents Britain better than we do ourselves. If you vote Leave we get our own team to fight our corner. If you vote Leave we get the chance to do it right."
Furthermore, the last thing Vote Leave need to do is push forward the idealistic Tory burblers in their team, who have:
-Fallen into the trap of providing their prospectus for post-Leave (how could they resist someone asking their opinion?)
-Gone on about freeing the rest of Europe (none of our business frankly)
-Totally failed to come up with a coherent line on the US intervention
-Are just running a shambolic campaign generally
I really don't know whether your recommendation is dishonest (a la Meeks or Nabavi's kindly advice to Leave) or just daft.
Hence not able to negotiate a trade deal with the Rest of the EU and the UK at the same time.
http://www.rc21.org/conferences/berlin2013/RC21-Berlin-Papers-7/31-1-saha_watson_suburban_drifts.pdf
'a larger research project that examined the sense of attachment to place
expressed by three generations of the South Asian communities in Redbridge.
While the older and younger generation were very clear in the attachment
they feel towards where the area where they live, the group of 30-somethings
were almost universal in their dislike of the area, and more specifically what
they perceived as a decline in the physical look of Redbridge, which was seen
as going ‘downhill’. What was striking was how they attributed this decline to
the particular material practices of the expanding Asian community, which had
almost doubled in size within the previous ten years '
I'm sure Sunil would find this report very interesting.
New Championship Rules as published by the Leave Campaign.
1. All matches shall be umpired by the PM in a strictly neutral manner.
2. The USA number 1 seed is hereby disqualified as being partly Kenyan.
3.Any winning shot played against a British competitor shall be called OUT in an angry voice.
4.Abuse of all European competitors and the umpire is encouraged.
5. All competition officials shall wear hideous blazers.
6.EU racquets will not be tolerated.
7.The 2016 winners shall be-
Mens Singles B.Johnson
Ladies Singles M Le Pen
Mens Doubles Farage and Galloway
Mixed Doubles V Putin and Miss Le Pen.
Perplexing ....
Brexit hypocrite: Remember when Obama accused Netanyahu of meddling in America’s affairs?
“Prime Minister Netanyahu has injected himself forcefully into this debate on American foreign policy in Washington,” Zakaria said. To which the President replied, “Right.”
The CNN host continued, “Can you recall a time when a foreign head of government has done that. Is it appropriate for a foreign head of government to inject himself into an American debate?”
As a Remainer, I have long predicted a Leave win and have never been happy about Cameron offering a referendum like this, just for party reasons.
Thanks to the utter shambles that Leave seems be in, I am beginning to think Remain will pull it off after all. I had no idea that so little thought had gone into how to win the campaign for Leave after all these years of moaning about lack of a referendum. Their message handling over the last week has been atrocious frankly.
Euroscepticism has been quite normal outside Guardian circles for a while. But most people shy away from anything that seems a bit nutty, and it seems to me that Leave is overpopulated with people who reinforce that perception - their front men are Boris and Farage, with folk like Bone and Galloway in the next rank. The people you call idealistic Tory burblers (I was suggesting Gove) might be misguided but you can't really call them nutty.
But hey, it's not my campaign. You feel the answer is more Boris and more Farage, or what?
Your criticism that they're running a shambolic campaign and not coming up with a coherent line is a bit pointless since they don't have a unified leadership. You might as well ask PB to come up with a coherent position that we'd all fall behind. Won't happen.
You couldn't make some of this level of rank stupidity and political incompetence up unless you were presently running the office of LotO.
Everything to play for.
Remember Harold MacMillan and "Events dear boy"
Leave's problem is they spent the week shoring up their base effectively, by trotting a load of nonsensical reasons why Obama shouldn't be listened to which only committed Leave people would find valid e.g. his Dad was from Kenya.
Did you miss the IDS departure?
-Hypocrisy - why don't they join then?
-Out for their own interests
People already believe the US is in everything for themselves - it will resonate with everyone from a rabid left winger to a right wing retired Colonel. And the flagrant hypocrisy only needs pointing out.
Vote Leave's lovesick atlanticists couldn't do that. Liam Fox was shit. Gove I don't even remember. Nigel and Boris were better, but got too personal and psychological.
HAVING SAID THAT, Leaves response isn't the main story, so we must wait, possibly until the vote itself, to see how this intervention plays out.
When is Marine LePen bringing her bucket and spade??
The Uk's current account deficit has very little to do with the EU and, say this quietly, very little to do with HMG. It is much more governed by the appalling state of the management of UK industry, especially the big companies.
So, to come back to the EU debate, we can and do trade everywhere. On those bodies (e.g. WTO) that make the rules the UK would have more influence than as as 1/28 of the voice of one of the participants.
However, the key point for me is whether the UK, a nation of 60+ million people and the 5th biggest economy on the planet, should have its own say on how it is governed.
http://www.steynonline.com/7501/live-in-melbourne
They also have the slight problem that they still haven't come up with up any convincing arguments to show they believe in the EU being something of merit we should join. Only that now we are in, it would be too scary to depart the warmth of the huddle.
The German press seem to think the Atlantic alliance is Germany and the USA. No mention of the UK.
So was Obama repeating Angies' lines or Dave's ? This is all getting quite complicated.
http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/ausland/atlantische-allianz-das-unentbehrliche-buendnis-14196283.html
Leave need to bring the conversation back to real individual cost with clear cut pledges through to the next election. They also need to concentrate on the social and cultural impacts domestically. Taxes, wages, prices, welfare costs, housing, healthcare.
Obama has basically acknowledged that Brexit are correct on a US trade deal:
""It's fair to say that maybe some point down the line there might be a UK-US trade agreement...."
Plenty more ammo to come
We have no deal presently, yet they are our biggest export market.
The EU still haven't nailed down a deal after how many years because they are pretty hopeless.
Obama says a trade deal is probable with the UK. Move on.
However IMHO LEAVE will look back at the year leading to the referendum and these past few weeks as a total f*ck up. Their organization, such that there is one, is a shambles, their collective "leadership" has all the direction, cohesion and message direction of a fart in a gale.
Decent, honourable and insightful LEAVE campaigners, and there are many (including on PB) must be absolutely horrified at the present state of affairs. Who could blame them.
the Remain campaign and the Euro Elitehis fellow Outers...Back to the future, will HMG manage to pass any legislation post referendum?