Everyone knows what my views are on Brexit. I find it more interesting to write an article on what I expect to see, rather than what I would like to see.
I partly agree with Alistair Meeks about "lack of coherence" but I see that as a strength, rather than a weakness. Different Leave factions can appeal to discrete sections of the electorate.
Yes, but...
What happens when LEAVE win?
What decision have we come to?
At the very least, a decision that we will no longer be part of a process of Europe-wide political integration. Maybe we actually took that decision when we stayed out of the Euro, and a Leave vote would simply be ratifying that.
I don't know if British politics would then move in a rightward or leftward direction.
I think you are right about the significance of staying out of the euro. The next logical step is of course formal exit.
But 1) there are quite a few slow learners out there 2) there is a big chunk of the civil service/FO that haven't given up on getting the UK to eventually embrace Eurozone membership and all that goes with it.
4 overs I would guess. Or to put it another way England have 16 overs to bowl them out!
I would guess by 5 wickets with three overs to spare.
The one thing that makes me hesitate is that it doesn't seem to be a boundaries pitch and Windies are rubbish at running singles. But I suspect they will find it a lot easier to get the ball away than England did.
Another prediction of mine on cricket goes agley. Even a Steve Harmison over couldn't see them home in 17 overs from here.
Tip for punters - when you see what I've predicted, assume the opposite will happen and you'll make a fortune.
Everyone knows what my views are on Brexit. I find it more interesting to write an article on what I expect to see, rather than what I would like to see.
I partly agree with Alistair Meeks about "lack of coherence" but I see that as a strength, rather than a weakness. Different Leave factions can appeal to discrete sections of the electorate.
Yes, but...
What happens when LEAVE win?
What decision have we come to?
At the very least, a decision that we will no longer be part of a process of Europe-wide political integration. Maybe we actually took that decision when we stayed out of the Euro, and a Leave vote would simply be ratifying that.
I don't know if British politics would then move in a rightward or leftward direction.
If Leave win we become like Norway and Switzerland ie outside the EU competely, rather than like Sweden, Denmark and Hungary as we are at the moment ie outside the Eurozone but in the EU
It's simple. We will have come to a decision to leave the European Union, to be effected by the government of the day, in this case the Conservative majority government.
Leave does not become the government of the country and UKIP will still have 1 MP. All that happens is that the MPs we elect to the House of Commons will, in time, hold more power over our laws than they do today.
The referendum is a binary choice. It is not an election. But it will determine how much power our elected representatives have.
Those who are critical of thread leaders always have the option of penning their own disinterested narrative.
Do pb moderators (all for REMAIN) invite the articles?
Write one and find out.
Essentially thread leaders have to be coherent and with a nod to betting (clue in site title) but impartiality is not a requirement and the comments section clearly allows for substantial counter argument.
Perish the thought it might drive up site traffic ..
When was the last time a guest header submitted on spec was published?
It's clearly very rare - combine that with multiple reports of submissions going unacknowledged, let alone published, it's clear that "why don't you submit an article?" is an unhelpful suggestion.
Those who are critical of thread leaders always have the option of penning their own disinterested narrative.
Do pb moderators (all for REMAIN) invite the articles?
Write one and find out.
Essentially thread leaders have to be coherent and with a nod to betting (clue in site title) but impartiality is not a requirement and the comments section clearly allows for substantial counter argument.
Perish the thought it might drive up site traffic ..
When was the last time a guest header submitted on spec was published?
It's clearly very rare - combine that with multiple reports of submissions going unacknowledged, let alone published, it's clear that "why don't you submit an article?" is an unhelpful suggestion.
Those who are critical of thread leaders always have the option of penning their own disinterested narrative.
Do pb moderators (all for REMAIN) invite the articles?
Write one and find out.
Essentially thread leaders have to be coherent and with a nod to betting (clue in site title) but impartiality is not a requirement and the comments section clearly allows for substantial counter argument.
Perish the thought it might drive up site traffic ..
When was the last time a guest header submitted on spec was published?
It's clearly very rare - combine that with multiple reports of submissions going unacknowledged, let alone published, it's clear that "why don't you submit an article?" is an unhelpful suggestion.
Its a Tory front , not very difficult.
Nonsense - all true Tories are Leavers, I've heard.
On the subject of the establishment losing its hold, for decades, voters have expected steady growth in living standards, and have come to view it as the norm. In return, they've voted for moderate centre right or social democratic politicians. Now, they see that living standards have stagnated. Worse, they see the benefits of globalisation going to a narrow section of the population, while the costs fall on the majority of the population.
So, is it any wonder that they're losing faith in the establishment, if the establishment can't deliver the goods?
His view of Merkel is about as flattering as mine.
What I found most interesting was that Sandau thought that the problems with the Eurozone could have been managed if Britain had been a part of it from the start. That sounds like wishful thinking to me and the huge financial sector in the UK would have caused big problems post-2008 for the whole Eurozone. However it's nice to know there are still some people out there (if not exactly everyone) who look back nostalgically at the times when Britain ruled the waves.
His view of Merkel is about as flattering as mine.
What I found most interesting was that Sandau thought that the problems with the Eurozone could have been managed if Britain had been a part of it from the start. That sounds like wishful thinking to me and the huge financial sector in the UK would have caused big problems post-2008 for the whole Eurozone. However it's nice to know there are still some people out there (if not exactly everyone) who look back nostalgically at the times when Britain ruled the waves.
I drift into this way of thinking re: our EU membership. But's a sort of arrogance to assume that Europe need our hand on the tiller.
His view of Merkel is about as flattering as mine.
Yes that's a very good article. This ppgh is pretty spot on
'The answer is that Merkel’s immigration policy offers an object lesson in what other countries can expect from Germany acting European. Just as the United States sees the world as an extended playing field for its domestic political economy, Germany has come to consider the European Union as an extension of itself, where what is right for Germany is by definition right for all others'
4 6's to win it - pure skill and class!! - W.Indies deserve it!!
They were the best team of the tournament. Well played lads!
Not watching but I do remember the first cricket match I ever watched had Kapil Dev do the same thing. No idea it was such a rare thing. Also saw Mark Waugh do it live vs Glamorgan - off the first four balls of the over too. He then scuffed the fifth one to long on for a single, slapping his bat against the ground in frustration.
His view of Merkel is about as flattering as mine.
What I found most interesting was that Sandau thought that the problems with the Eurozone could have been managed if Britain had been a part of it from the start. That sounds like wishful thinking to me and the huge financial sector in the UK would have caused big problems post-2008 for the whole Eurozone. However it's nice to know there are still some people out there (if not exactly everyone) who look back nostalgically at the times when Britain ruled the waves.
I have long thought that this is one of the underlying driving factors behind Tory Wet Europhilia. They have never quite got over losing the Empire and had the arrogance to think that if only Britain was completely engaged in the EEC/U project we would bound to be leading it eventually.
It is a most unpleasant view but one I think people like Heath and Clark instinctively held.
Also I guess the end for Gayle. Well, he debuted for the Windies in the first series defeat they had suffered in England since the days of Basil D'Oliveira, it's apposite after all the poundings where he was a lone good player that he signs off with a win he didn't contribute to!
IPL next lads - please watch it - it's very entertaining and it's the biggest domestic cricket tournament out there! Embrace it and embrace India as the new home of cricket...
To think I was pleased Samuels was off strike. Incredible striking.
What a way to win a T20. Gutted but that was brilliant.
I would love to see the West Indies back challenging at the top of Test Cricket. I read a number of years ago about how cricket in the Caribbean was being driven out by Basketball and I would hope that this sort of spectacle would start to reverse that trend.
To think I was pleased Samuels was off strike. Incredible striking.
What a way to win a T20. Gutted but that was brilliant.
I would love to see the West Indies back challenging at the top of Test Cricket. I read a number of years ago about how cricket in the Caribbean was being driven out by Basketball and I would hope that this sort of spectacle would start to reverse that trend.
T20 is where it's at now, though. Great test players can play it very well, but it does not create great test players.
To think I was pleased Samuels was off strike. Incredible striking.
What a way to win a T20. Gutted but that was brilliant.
I would love to see the West Indies back challenging at the top of Test Cricket. I read a number of years ago about how cricket in the Caribbean was being driven out by Basketball and I would hope that this sort of spectacle would start to reverse that trend.
I saw a stat, that most of the Windies t20 squad haven't played a first class game in nearly two years.
I suspect they'll continue with the focus on t20 and Tests not so much.
His view of Merkel is about as flattering as mine.
What I found most interesting was that Sandau thought that the problems with the Eurozone could have been managed if Britain had been a part of it from the start. That sounds like wishful thinking to me and the huge financial sector in the UK would have caused big problems post-2008 for the whole Eurozone. However it's nice to know there are still some people out there (if not exactly everyone) who look back nostalgically at the times when Britain ruled the waves.
I have long thought that this is one of the underlying driving factors behind Tory Wet Europhilia. They have never quite got over losing the Empire and had the arrogance to think that if only Britain was completely engaged in the EEC/U project we would bound to be leading it eventually.
It is a most unpleasant view but one I think people like Heath and Clark instinctively held.
I don't know about those two specifically - Heath was strongly influenced by the war and need for European unity. I think it is definitely a trait across the European centre-right though (whereas the left is more concerned with the social Europe Delors vision). Indeed Barrosso even admitted that he saw Europe as a potential non-military empire. And in many ways that isn't really that shocking. Does one doubt that there are imperialistic politicians in Russia and China? Even the US is prone to this kind of thinking in spite of its revolutionary foundations. I'm sure many centre right pro-Europeans have a vision of what Niall Ferguson would call a liberal empire and genuinely believe it would be good for the world.
His view of Merkel is about as flattering as mine.
What I found most interesting was that Sandau thought that the problems with the Eurozone could have been managed if Britain had been a part of it from the start. That sounds like wishful thinking to me and the huge financial sector in the UK would have caused big problems post-2008 for the whole Eurozone. However it's nice to know there are still some people out there (if not exactly everyone) who look back nostalgically at the times when Britain ruled the waves.
I have long thought that this is one of the underlying driving factors behind Tory Wet Europhilia. They have never quite got over losing the Empire and had the arrogance to think that if only Britain was completely engaged in the EEC/U project we would bound to be leading it eventually.
It is a most unpleasant view but one I think people like Heath and Clark instinctively held.
Yes that's very much the FO view as well, and you also get it from people like John Stevens.
IPL next lads - please watch it - it's very entertaining and it's the biggest domestic cricket tournament out there! Embrace it and embrace India as the new home of cricket...
I watch it. I still have no idea what you mean about embracing India as the home of cricket though. I just want all formats to be viable and enjoyable, I don't see how India being the 'home' would impact unless for some reason they dick around with the rules using their influence. So long as they don't do that, what do I care them being the 'home'?
West indies may deserve it,but Haha - England,you really do hate this country don't you.
He's just a bogstandard troll. Since the admins don't grant us Vanilla's ignore function, we just have to put up with it.
He reminds me of the day England football team got beat by Romania in one of the tournament's and the local youth club shut has the same time the match finished,all I heard coming out of the youth club was chanting Romania,Romania,Romania.
His view of Merkel is about as flattering as mine.
What I found most interesting was that Sandau thought that the problems with the Eurozone could have been managed if Britain had been a part of it from the start. That sounds like wishful thinking to me and the huge financial sector in the UK would have caused big problems post-2008 for the whole Eurozone. However it's nice to know there are still some people out there (if not exactly everyone) who look back nostalgically at the times when Britain ruled the waves.
I have long thought that this is one of the underlying driving factors behind Tory Wet Europhilia. They have never quite got over losing the Empire and had the arrogance to think that if only Britain was completely engaged in the EEC/U project we would bound to be leading it eventually.
It is a most unpleasant view but one I think people like Heath and Clark instinctively held.
I remember reading an old biography of Ted Heath - it must have been written in about 1973 - and it ended somewhat like:
' Heath could look on with pleasure at the prospect of a British led Europe able to face down both the USA and the Soviet Union. '
[I stop watching whenever the race is over, not interested in post-race stuff, except my own, so I may've missed something].
It was from during the race. Massa didn't leap out of his way when he was lapping him because he was defending his place from Kyviat on fresher tyres so Rosberg passed him then backed him up so he lost the place.
His view of Merkel is about as flattering as mine.
What I found most interesting was that Sandau thought that the problems with the Eurozone could have been managed if Britain had been a part of it from the start. That sounds like wishful thinking to me and the huge financial sector in the UK would have caused big problems post-2008 for the whole Eurozone. However it's nice to know there are still some people out there (if not exactly everyone) who look back nostalgically at the times when Britain ruled the waves.
I have long thought that this is one of the underlying driving factors behind Tory Wet Europhilia. They have never quite got over losing the Empire and had the arrogance to think that if only Britain was completely engaged in the EEC/U project we would bound to be leading it eventually.
It is a most unpleasant view but one I think people like Heath and Clark instinctively held.
I remember reading an old biography of Ted Heath - it must have been written in about 1973 - and it ended somewhat like:
' Heath could look on with pleasure at the prospect of a British led Europe able to face down both the USA and the Soviet Union. '
There is an article by Lyndsay Hilsum in today's Sunday Times from Palmyra (what a brave journalist she is) about the state of the place: not just destruction of ancient ruins but mass graves and the rest.
I remember reading an old biography of Ted Heath - it must have been written in about 1973 - and it ended somewhat like: 'Heath could look on with pleasure at the prospect of a British led Europe able to face down both the USA and the Soviet Union. '
Edward Heath, face down with pleasure? That's a classic quote, though, 17 years after Anthony Eden learnt the opposite.
Incidentally, despite the fact that I am a pretty fierce critic of his party's leader, I appreciated @NickPalmer's rather more thoughtful views on the anti-Semitism and the Labour Party question on the previous thread.
It is of course true that one should be able to criticise Israel without being thought of as anti- Semitic. Those who respond to any criticism of Israel in such a way do her no favours. It is also equally true that there are plenty who have alighted with glee on the anti-Zionist banner precisely because it does allow them to make anti-Semitic statements under the guise of anti-Zionism. They are not acting in good faith. And it is also striking how many people who criticise Israel for all variety of matters are strangely silent when even worse instances of the same matters are committed by other states. The double standards on display make one wonder exactly what the motivation is
I'm really not sure what point you're making? Are you saying that because the publication 'Standpoint' chooses to discredit the BDS movement therefore one shouldn't support the boycott whether or not you think its aims have merit?
Do you apply this logic to everything? You seem to spend a lot of your time calling people and organizations anti semitic on the basis of very little evidence. The politics and racial divisions in Israel is an issue that can be very divisive even in Israel itself .
You'll find a lot of disinformation and propaganda on all sides. Trying to find an accurate position is a much better use of your time than just spraying around accusations of anti semitism to anyone who takes a different view to yourself
The cricket demonstrates not only the perils of in-running wagering but the presumption it can sometimes be the least likely thing that ends up happening.
I'm not sure what to make of Antifrank's (he'll always be Antifrank to me) latest offering. Insurgencies do sometimes win - you could argue Margaret Thatcher was the insurgent in 1975 defeating the Conservative Party Establishment (Whitelaw etc) and in 1979 prevailed not because she was the alternative to dull incompetence but because she wasn't.
Conversely, Blair won in 1997 because he wasn't radical and had been able to convince millions of former Conservative voters the Labour Party he led was a non-socialist party of the centre or centre-left.
During the long period of Butskellism power interchanged simply because the Conservatives and Labour were or appeared to be similar (Wilson's Labour vs Heath's Conservatives).
Britain has so far avoided the destruction of the old parties as has happened in places like Denmark and Italy and while the vote share of the Con-Lab Parties isn't what it was, FPTP means the 70% is more then enough to hold the line.
I don't see that changing anytime soon but as the saying goes "nothing lasts forever".
When an extreme group goes into retreat, it tends to devour itself. The Khmer Rouge, for example, practically cannibalised its own: all the 21,000 victims at the Tuol Sleng extermination camp were KR cadres suspected of treason.
Some tentative evidence this is now happening within ISIS:
There is an article by Lyndsay Hilsum in today's Sunday Times from Palmyra (what a brave journalist she is) about the state of the place: not just destruction of ancient ruins but mass graves and the rest.
I expect that when Raqqa and Mosul get liberated that we will see some real horrors.
Will it make young Islamists think again? I hope so, but fear not.
A good day for Leicester ( I did tip another 1 nil this morning!) and the West Indies. I hope that the T20 cup and the IPL inspire a revival of cricket there. It would be good for the sport.
On topic. What really concerns me is that the grown ups aren't exactly covering themselves in glory. I appreciate that Mr Meeks thinks those of us who have the temerity to think we should leave the EU think that it is the be all and end all of politics.
Well I think we should leave the EU and I'm pleased to be getting a chance to vote on it, but the most important thing in my mind is the state of the public finances. I appreciate that the Tories inherited a shocking state of affairs in 2010, but having won a majority in 2015 George Osborne should have taken the tough decisions to finally eliminate the deficit. Unfortunately this has not happened.
Mr Meeks may think that the likes of Corbyn and Farage are a threat to the establishment (and not just the political one), but I'd suggest what should worry them more is what happens when the next crash happens.
Comments
Edit - thank you TSE. Not the greatest of matches for poor old Hales, is it?
But 1) there are quite a few slow learners out there 2) there is a big chunk of the civil service/FO that haven't given up on getting the UK to eventually embrace Eurozone membership and all that goes with it.
Wisconsin
GOP
Cruz 43
Trump 37
Kasich 18
Dems
Sanders 49
Clinton 47
New York
GOP
Trump 52
Cruz 21
Kasich 20
Dems
Clinton 53
Sanders 43
Pennsylvania
GOP
Trump 47
Cruz 29
Kasich 22
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-gop-divided-april-primaries-loom-ted-cruz-wisconsin-donald-trump-new-york-pennsylvania/
Tip for punters - when you see what I've predicted, assume the opposite will happen and you'll make a fortune.
DavidL seems to have been pretty close though.
PClipp said what it says Sean Fear said.
And I am saying what it says PClipp says
http://www.lrb.co.uk/v38/n07/wolfgang-streeck/scenario-for-a-wonderful-tomorrow
His view of Merkel is about as flattering as mine.
I've got the radio on though.
(you get the picture)
At least this match went back and forth, not often that happens.
Ben Stokes - LOL!!
Love it for the W.Indies!!
What a way to win a T20. Gutted but that was brilliant.
They were the best team of the tournament. Well played lads!
2) I hope this doesn't break Stokes
'The answer is that Merkel’s immigration policy offers an object lesson in what other countries can expect from Germany acting European. Just as the United States sees the world as an extended playing field for its domestic political economy, Germany has come to consider the European Union as an extension of itself, where what is right for Germany is by definition right for all others'
That is indeed exactly how they think
Well done West Indies. Worthy winners and nice to see a couple of records there both from Samuels and Braithwaite.
A great final.
Will Marlon Samuels salute him?
It is a most unpleasant view but one I think people like Heath and Clark instinctively held.
Why did he not bowl one of his frontline spinners on a turning wicket?
Very entertaining F1 race. I shall set about writing the post-race piece.
'To dismiss Gove and others as "the crazies" is shockingly arrogant.'
The longer the campaign goes on the more shrill & hysterical Mr Meeks becomes,maybe someone should tell him project fear and abuse doesn't work.
Massive turnoff for anyone that hasn't decided which way to vote.
I suspect they'll continue with the focus on t20 and Tests not so much.
I think he's scored one century and one fifty across all formats since becoming captain more than a yeAr ago.
That isn't good enough. Bell was rightly dropped despite a far better record than that.
It was choking at its worst (or best). I'm sure Ben will comeback stronger but I'm calling it as it is...
The most complete batsman in the world at the moment.#
Handy off-spinner too.
' Heath could look on with pleasure at the prospect of a British led Europe able to face down both the USA and the Soviet Union. '
[I stop watching whenever the race is over, not interested in post-race stuff, except my own, so I may've missed something].
That's a classic quote, though, 17 years after Anthony Eden learnt the opposite.
Excellent news.
Do you apply this logic to everything? You seem to spend a lot of your time calling people and organizations anti semitic on the basis of very little evidence. The politics and racial divisions in Israel is an issue that can be very divisive even in Israel itself .
You'll find a lot of disinformation and propaganda on all sides. Trying to find an accurate position is a much better use of your time than just spraying around accusations of anti semitism to anyone who takes a different view to yourself
Still the fantasy footie is a v minor consolation...
After a fashion
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2016/04/bahrain-post-race-analysis.html
The cricket demonstrates not only the perils of in-running wagering but the presumption it can sometimes be the least likely thing that ends up happening.
I'm not sure what to make of Antifrank's (he'll always be Antifrank to me) latest offering. Insurgencies do sometimes win - you could argue Margaret Thatcher was the insurgent in 1975 defeating the Conservative Party Establishment (Whitelaw etc) and in 1979 prevailed not because she was the alternative to dull incompetence but because she wasn't.
Conversely, Blair won in 1997 because he wasn't radical and had been able to convince millions of former Conservative voters the Labour Party he led was a non-socialist party of the centre or centre-left.
During the long period of Butskellism power interchanged simply because the Conservatives and Labour were or appeared to be similar (Wilson's Labour vs Heath's Conservatives).
Britain has so far avoided the destruction of the old parties as has happened in places like Denmark and Italy and while the vote share of the Con-Lab Parties isn't what it was, FPTP means the 70% is more then enough to hold the line.
I don't see that changing anytime soon but as the saying goes "nothing lasts forever".
ISIS need to be exterminated. No ifs or buts.
Will it make young Islamists think again? I hope so, but fear not.
A good day for Leicester ( I did tip another 1 nil this morning!) and the West Indies. I hope that the T20 cup and the IPL inspire a revival of cricket there. It would be good for the sport.
Well I think we should leave the EU and I'm pleased to be getting a chance to vote on it, but the most important thing in my mind is the state of the public finances. I appreciate that the Tories inherited a shocking state of affairs in 2010, but having won a majority in 2015 George Osborne should have taken the tough decisions to finally eliminate the deficit. Unfortunately this has not happened.
Mr Meeks may think that the likes of Corbyn and Farage are a threat to the establishment (and not just the political one), but I'd suggest what should worry them more is what happens when the next crash happens.