Just think, if the SNP had won their indyref, then it is most likely we would now have PM Miliband giving Scotland it's 'freedom' whilst taking England & Wales even further into the EU.
Something to be grateful for.
If the SNP had won their IndyRef then Cameron would have an even bigger majority now. The divide between Scotland and England would have been much bigger.
Off topic, mostly, but I must say although I know many people are angry at politicians in general, I'd always assumed it was really not that many, and mostly it was general dislike. But meeting up with some relatives the other day I haven't seen in awhile, the unprompted angry comments about specific people and politicians as a whole which cropped up really took me by surprise, particularly as they were comfortable retired folk, and the kindest and most generous people I know (deeply devout, active participants through their church with all manner of charitable works) but the vitriol against the political class was pretty strong.
LEAVE slowly gains in polls and now another pro-REMAIN article based on the other side of the globe voting for a flag.
Fisher's model gave a Tory majority around a 16/1 chance on the eve of the May 2015 election.
Got to laugh at the cherry picking.
I took up odds of 7/1 a few days before. Just wish I put more than £20 but I trusted the pollsters too much. I based my call on story behind why EdM visited Russell Brand and another item off Labour List.
Just think, if the SNP had won their indyref, then it is most likely we would now have PM Miliband giving Scotland it's 'freedom' whilst taking England & Wales even further into the EU.
Something to be grateful for.
If the SNP had won their IndyRef then Cameron would have an even bigger majority now. The divide between Scotland and England would have been much bigger.
Cameron would have resigned and there would have been no threat of "the SNP writing Labour's budget".
It does though. Giving Turkey access to Schengen travel arrangements is a security risk. It would allow any ISIS trained terrorist to get into a free travel area only by crossing a single, leaky border. At the moment they have to cross two leaky borders. Extending the European border to Syria would be considered crazy in normal times, doing it with ISIS on the doorstep doesn't bear thinking about.
I thought Turkey was just joining the list of 38 nations that do not require a visa to enter the Schengen zone, joining the ranks of South Korea, Canada, etc.
Hmm, I thought it was being suggested that Turkey be allowed to have passport free travel with Schengen. If that isn't the case then I take it back.
No visa-free travel. Like we have visa-free travel with Canada, you still need your passport and you still need to go through border control procedures.
As long as Europe still has an active border then I don't see the issue that is being made out of it. I guess the Visa process gives nations the chance to do background checks (but who really does that now), and I imagine whatever visa-waiver programme that replaces the current system will probably incorporate one anyway.
Unless this is just a pre-cursor to passport free travel then it does seem like mountains out of molehills.
LEAVE slowly gains in polls and now another pro-REMAIN article based on the other side of the globe voting for a flag.
The telegraph reports dave is telling his MPs he needs time to think...
Time to think about a slight shift of position on Remain?
Unlikely, more like taking a step back from actively campaigning for Remain. The PM has already pushed Remain far too hard to u-turn. He has forced too many of his Cabinet ministers to back Remain against their instincts to do it as well.
Music recommended for the PM's holiday? O'Jays " Back Stabbers " (great to dance to) - An omen of what awaits him if he carries on fronting REMAIN.
Just think, if the SNP had won their indyref, then it is most likely we would now have PM Miliband giving Scotland it's 'freedom' whilst taking England & Wales even further into the EU.
Something to be grateful for.
If the SNP had won their IndyRef then Cameron would have an even bigger majority now. The divide between Scotland and England would have been much bigger.
JUST when it seemed the contest between the rival Out campaigns could not get more bitter, it looks like it may be heading for court.
Arron Banks, the multi-millionaire behind Leave.eu, has served a writ on his rival Matthew Elliott, the election strategist behind the other key Brexit campaign, Vote Leave. It follows a dispute over the use of data in the campaign. Banks believes he has been libeled, and wants a public apology. Elliott was served documents by a bailiff on Monday. The matter is now in the hands of lawyers.
LEAVE slowly gains in polls and now another pro-REMAIN article based on the other side of the globe voting for a flag.
The telegraph reports dave is telling his MPs he needs time to think...
Time to think about a slight shift of position on Remain?
Unlikely, more like taking a step back from actively campaigning for Remain. The PM has already pushed Remain far too hard to u-turn. He has forced too many of his Cabinet ministers to back Remain against their instincts to do it as well.
Music recommended for the PM's holiday? O'Jays " Back Stabbers " (great to dance to) - An omen of what awaits him if he carries on fronting REMAIN.
Backstabbing is inevitable. He may as well go hard, so that the fallout is at least more decisive and, for the party, hopefully long lasting, rather than attempts from his successor (this year or next year, I don't see him lasting longer even if Remain win) to pretend this is a small divide they can just all look past once it is over.
On topic on balance I expect the undecideds to break for remain but when you look at the data points it's hard to tell how much is "status quo pulls away on the day" and how much is "old people get what they want because they turn out to vote". It's an important distinction because in this case it's old people who want change.
JUST when it seemed the contest between the rival Out campaigns could not get more bitter, it looks like it may be heading for court.
Arron Banks, the multi-millionaire behind Leave.eu, has served a writ on his rival Matthew Elliott, the election strategist behind the other key Brexit campaign, Vote Leave. It follows a dispute over the use of data in the campaign. Banks believes he has been libeled, and wants a public apology. Elliott was served documents by a bailiff on Monday. The matter is now in the hands of lawyers.
I am frankly amazed at how silly the Leave campaigns have been on this. Thank goodness the cause has enough in its favour to, hopefully, see it through to success regardless.
JUST when it seemed the contest between the rival Out campaigns could not get more bitter, it looks like it may be heading for court.
Arron Banks, the multi-millionaire behind Leave.eu, has served a writ on his rival Matthew Elliott, the election strategist behind the other key Brexit campaign, Vote Leave. It follows a dispute over the use of data in the campaign. Banks believes he has been libeled, and wants a public apology. Elliott was served documents by a bailiff on Monday. The matter is now in the hands of lawyers.
I am frankly amazed at how silly the Leave campaigns have been on this. Thank goodness the cause has enough in its favour to, hopefully, see it through to success regardless.
JUST when it seemed the contest between the rival Out campaigns could not get more bitter, it looks like it may be heading for court.
Arron Banks, the multi-millionaire behind Leave.eu, has served a writ on his rival Matthew Elliott, the election strategist behind the other key Brexit campaign, Vote Leave. It follows a dispute over the use of data in the campaign. Banks believes he has been libeled, and wants a public apology. Elliott was served documents by a bailiff on Monday. The matter is now in the hands of lawyers.
Some people would like to make being an arsehole a crime, an idea so ridiculous it was mocked by the psychotic villain of a Sylvester Stallone movie for heaven's sake! Certainly the current rules can be abused, even if people don't think we should have a free for all.
Apologies if this point has already been made, but I'd have thought the vote to keep the existing NZ flag was more akin to voting to leave the EU rather than voting for the status quo. Britain is best etc.
I seriously wonder WTF many forces are doing. We've had direct appeals outside Ted Heaths home, tweeting pix from inside homes of those who left door unlocked but no crime reported and hashtags for just being a bit of an arse.
Where's the PR professionalism here? It's so inept and asking for it.
Apologies if this point has already been made, but I'd have thought the vote to keep the existing NZ flag was more akin to voting to leave the EU rather than voting for the status quo. Britain is best etc.
One can read whatever confirmation bias one likes into it.
If this site wants an idea for another referendum article how about comparing to the Scottish independence polling? At this stage in 2014 there had not been any polls in 2014 that had a lead for YES. Contrast that with the leads that LEAVE have been getting! 3 months away, the NO leads were 7% to 19%. It finished up with a lead of 11%. 4% above the worst case for NO and 8% below the top point for NO. That UK elect website says that the polls are 50/50. Applying that rationale REMAIN may be in the range of 54% to 42% which is ... not very good.... More risk of down side than upside.
Is that as useful as a flag referendum comparison? (Innocent face from irritating poster trying patience of OGH sir)
Just think, if the SNP had won their indyref, then it is most likely we would now have PM Miliband giving Scotland it's 'freedom' whilst taking England & Wales even further into the EU.
Something to be grateful for.
If the SNP had won their IndyRef then Cameron would have an even bigger majority now. The divide between Scotland and England would have been much bigger.
Cameron would have resigned and there would have been no threat of "the SNP writing Labour's budget".
So Cameron's majority could not have been bigger.
Cameron may or may not have resigned but either way the threat of the SNP would have been much bigger not smaller given the divorce would not have happened by election day. If you are going through a contested divorce you want your own lawyer, you don't want to just let your soon to be ex other half writing the divorce agreement unilaterally.
JUST when it seemed the contest between the rival Out campaigns could not get more bitter, it looks like it may be heading for court.
Arron Banks, the multi-millionaire behind Leave.eu, has served a writ on his rival Matthew Elliott, the election strategist behind the other key Brexit campaign, Vote Leave. It follows a dispute over the use of data in the campaign. Banks believes he has been libeled, and wants a public apology. Elliott was served documents by a bailiff on Monday. The matter is now in the hands of lawyers.
Politicking It goes from ridiculous to madness. Euro Human Rights Chief says " dont call them ILLEGAL immigrants, but IRREGULAR immigrants." EU bullshit
Politicking It goes from ridiculous to madness. Euro Human Rights Chief says " dont call them ILLEGAL immigrants, but IRREGULAR immigrants." EU bullshit
Personally I prefer "illegal aliens", then again I've been on a diet of Trump/Cruz for the last 4 months ;D
Re the idiot asking some woman to explain Brussels, there is no incitement to religious hatred there, IMO and both he and the police are behaving like morons.
The proper balance between individual and collective responsibility is, however, a very interesting one - something I have had to think about in the context of banking - and as I have some time off next week, I may do a thread header on it.
It will - ref @rcs100 and @Charles - not be about the EU, at least.
@TSE will have to shower me with Easter eggs, though............
Politicking It goes from ridiculous to madness. Euro Human Rights Chief says " dont call them ILLEGAL immigrants, but IRREGULAR immigrants." EU bullshit
Personally I prefer "illegal aliens", then again I've been on a diet of Trump/Cruz for the last 4 months ;D
'Re the idiot asking some woman to explain Brussels, there is no incitement to religious hatred there, IMO and both he and the police are behaving like morons.'
No no, surely this man's actions are the appalling 'backlash' those on the left are so worked up about....
JUST when it seemed the contest between the rival Out campaigns could not get more bitter, it looks like it may be heading for court.
Arron Banks, the multi-millionaire behind Leave.eu, has served a writ on his rival Matthew Elliott, the election strategist behind the other key Brexit campaign, Vote Leave. It follows a dispute over the use of data in the campaign. Banks believes he has been libeled, and wants a public apology. Elliott was served documents by a bailiff on Monday. The matter is now in the hands of lawyers.
@Runnymede: there never is any backlash. Perhaps that is part of the problem. Not taking it out on innocents, of course, but the lack of reaction - of fury - can look flabby and weak. Sometimes when people behave atrociously badly, anger is the only proper and moral response.
@GeoffM - prob don't have the same issue in Gib, but what happened to the local referendums to approve increases in council tax before they could be imposed?
No one asked me about the 4% increase in my bill last week, which has now made me £100 a year worse off.
2% max but the same allowed for social care. Clearly councils need more than 2 but the government doesn't want to be seen to be opening the floodgates so wont get rid of the referendum commitment and just gets round it. Bloody stupid.
What it shows to me is that unless constrained by legislation almost all councils would rather impose council tax rises than make difficult decisions on spending cuts to freeze it.
You may have a view one way or the other on what's best but local democracy is a sham.
The figures from NOAA are in for February 2016. As with the other global temperature datasets, February 2016 was the warmest February ever recorded.
It may not have dawned upon some of the right-wing fruitcakes that live on this blog but the world is warming significantly. No such thing as a "AGW trough" I'm afraid....
re visa-free access to Schengen for Turks, I read this in the FT..
"Turkey is the only country on the track to EU membership ever denied visa-free travel. Although 95 per cent of Schengen travel-area visa applications are accepted, around 36,000 individuals were refused in 2014"
JUST when it seemed the contest between the rival Out campaigns could not get more bitter, it looks like it may be heading for court.
Arron Banks, the multi-millionaire behind Leave.eu, has served a writ on his rival Matthew Elliott, the election strategist behind the other key Brexit campaign, Vote Leave. It follows a dispute over the use of data in the campaign. Banks believes he has been libeled, and wants a public apology. Elliott was served documents by a bailiff on Monday. The matter is now in the hands of lawyers.
To lighten things - more from the ex major party, more focused on liberalising weed than major issues of the day. http://order-order.com/2016/03/24/tom-brakes-cover-to-deliver-dodgy-excuse/ "Eco-hypocrite Tom Brake has finally proffered a explanation as to why he was caught with the lights on at his Sutton home during Earth Hour. This was despite having told his constituents to “turn off their lights or show their support for the future of this planet in any other way on the 19th at 8.30pm.” Speaking to the Sutton Guardian, Brake gave them this classic: “I never said I was going to take part in Earth Hour.”"
On topic, another way of interpreting the SIndy and Kiwiflag results would be that voters are attached to the traditional form of their nation-state with its traditional trappings. My hunch is that for many voters Britain's EU membership is seen as something alien and contrary to their idea of Britishness. I think those people would feel, on an emotional level, that they were voting for the status quo by voting Leave.
@GeoffM - prob don't have the same issue in Gib, but what happened to the local referendums to approve increases in council tax before they could be imposed?
No one asked me about the 4% increase in my bill last week, which has now made me £100 a year worse off.
2% max but the same allowed for social care. Clearly councils need more than 2 but the government doesn't want to be seen to be opening the floodgates so wont get rid of the referendum commitment and just gets round it. Bloody stupid.
What it shows to me is that unless constrained by legislation almost all councils would rather impose council tax rises than make difficult decisions on spending cuts to freeze it.
Well, yes, probably. But what it shows to me is that apparently the government also wants to avoid having councils make those decisions, or agrees with those councils that they cannot cut any more, but doesn't want to admit it so is pretending to still constrain them to the same level while in fact relaxing the rules.
The figures from NOAA are in for February 2016. As with the other global temperature datasets, February 2016 was the warmest February ever recorded.
It may not have dawned upon some of the right-wing fruitcakes that live on this blog but the world is warming significantly. No such thing as a "AGW trough" I'm afraid....
Re the idiot asking some woman to explain Brussels, there is no incitement to religious hatred there, IMO and both he and the police are behaving like morons.
The proper balance between individual and collective responsibility is, however, a very interesting one - something I have had to think about in the context of banking - and as I have some time off next week, I may do a thread header on it.
It will - ref @rcs100 and @Charles - not be about the EU, at least.
@TSE will have to shower me with Easter eggs, though............
Not Easter Eggs, I'm going on an Easter Egg hunt Sunday morning, whilst recovering from a trapped nerve.
But please do a thread header, your first thread was brilliant and a joy to publish.
'Re the idiot asking some woman to explain Brussels, there is no incitement to religious hatred there, IMO and both he and the police are behaving like morons.'
No no, surely this man's actions are the appalling 'backlash' those on the left are so worked up about....
It's perfectly reasonable to speak to someone who appears to be of the Muslim faith and ask them for their thoughts on the situation and their suggestion solutions (I have had before an interesting discussion with TSE on this point) but asking them to defend the actions of extremists within their own religion and explain themselves is just plain rude.
However, I don't think you should be arrested for being rude. It does seem that if you are rude at all to anyone from a religious or ethnic minority you now run the risk of arrest. It does not follow tha everyone being rude to them is inciting religious and racial hatred, nor that they should feel the collar of the law.
Personally, I think there is a boundary between social censure, reprimand, and satire, as a means of regulating poor behaviour, and the use of the law that is very poorly judged. So poorly in fact, that
I wouldn't dare have a casual conversation with anyone of Muslim appearance on this subject in public lest it go wrong. My motives simply wouldn't be trusted by the authorities and the presumption would be in favour of any 'victim' that felt subject to a hate crime. It's just too risky.
All it means is white Britons and Muslims are far less likely to talk to one another.
In this case, Cyclefree is right: the man at the centre, the police and the twitterati lynch mob are all acting like morons in this.
Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn Rainbow gag klaxon: @wesstreeting to Osb: "When President Obama visits he'll probably think you've changed your name from Jeffrey to Bungle"
JUST when it seemed the contest between the rival Out campaigns could not get more bitter, it looks like it may be heading for court.
Arron Banks, the multi-millionaire behind Leave.eu, has served a writ on his rival Matthew Elliott, the election strategist behind the other key Brexit campaign, Vote Leave. It follows a dispute over the use of data in the campaign. Banks believes he has been libeled, and wants a public apology. Elliott was served documents by a bailiff on Monday. The matter is now in the hands of lawyers.
If this site wants an idea for another referendum article how about comparing to the Scottish independence polling? At this stage in 2014 there had not been any polls in 2014 that had a lead for YES. Contrast that with the leads that LEAVE have been getting! 3 months away, the NO leads were 7% to 19%. It finished up with a lead of 11%. 4% above the worst case for NO and 8% below the top point for NO. That UK elect website says that the polls are 50/50. Applying that rationale REMAIN may be in the range of 54% to 42% which is ... not very good.... More risk of down side than upside.
Is that as useful as a flag referendum comparison? (Innocent face from irritating poster trying patience of OGH sir)
I think that comparison is interesting and (imo) the current polling is worrying for Remain.
One positive difference for Remain, vs Better Together, is that Remain has the British Government campaigning hard for it whereas in SIndy the Scottish Government was on the Yes side (and the British Government took a relatively low key approach for obvious reasons). So there are some grounds for Remain to be optimistic.
To discuss the claims, Rudd — whose brother Roland is the treasurer of the Britain Stronger in Europe campaign — appeared on the Today show with Justin Webb. Unfortunately for Rudd, Webb had done his research when it came to her claims. He proceeded to take her to task over the speech which he pointed out had a ‘bit of a plague of frogs feeling to it’.
After feeling Remain would win handsomely, the desperate claims of their supporters makes me wonder.
According to What UK Thinks, Leave are ahead in rolling polls, and Leave has much better GOTV demographics.
Too many Remainers resemble Lib Dems Winning Here mindsets.
Would recommend taking a few deep breaths. The vote is 3 months away, Labour, Lib Dems, Greens, SNP have barely even begun campaigning yet and most people (other than anoraks like us) have barely given it a second thought. Getting giddy about Leave being slightly ahead in the polls at this stage is pointless.
What the study points out is that history suggests that as referendums draw closer the status quo picks up votes and it continues right through polling day as many undecideds decide not to take the risk at the last moment. Now if you ave some stats to argue against that feel free because I am not seeing any yet.
The Scottish Referendum showed a swing of about 15% towards independence, albeit, some late swingback too.
'Re the idiot asking some woman to explain Brussels, there is no incitement to religious hatred there, IMO and both he and the police are behaving like morons.'
No no, surely this man's actions are the appalling 'backlash' those on the left are so worked up about....
It's perfectly reasonable to speak to someone who appears to be of the Muslim faith and ask them for their thoughts on the situation and their suggestion solutions (I have had before an interesting discussion with TSE on this point) but asking them to defend the actions of extremists within their own religion and explain themselves is just plain rude.
However, I don't think you should be arrested for being rude. It does seem that if you are rude at all to anyone from a religious or ethnic minority you now run the risk of arrest. It does not follow tha everyone being rude to them is inciting religious and racial hatred, nor that they should feel the collar of the law.
Personally, I think there is a boundary between social censure, reprimand, and satire, as a means of regulating poor behaviour, and the use of the law that is very poorly judged. So poorly in fact, that
I wouldn't dare have a casual conversation with anyone of Muslim appearance on this subject in public lest it go wrong. My motives simply wouldn't be trusted by the authorities and the presumption would be in favour of any 'victim' that felt subject to a hate crime. It's just too risky.
All it means is white Britons and Muslims are far less likely to talk to one another.
In this case, Cyclefree is right: the man at the centre, the police and the twitterati lynch mob are all acting like morons in this.
I'm writing a thread on what it means to be a Muslim in the UK (and what it means for UK politics)
I suspect I'm going to surprise some people.
If that bloke had said that to me, I would have replied with
"Dunno mate, I have no idea what makes a suicide bomber tick"
" According to one complaint, when the usually composed Margaret Beckett launched into a diatribe accusing Corbyn of taking her party back to the Eighties, Milne stunned the room by loudly interrupting, "I'm surprised you remember the Eighties, Margaret.""
@GeoffM - prob don't have the same issue in Gib, but what happened to the local referendums to approve increases in council tax before they could be imposed?
No one asked me about the 4% increase in my bill last week, which has now made me £100 a year worse off.
2% max but the same allowed for social care. Clearly councils need more than 2 but the government doesn't want to be seen to be opening the floodgates so wont get rid of the referendum commitment and just gets round it. Bloody stupid.
What it shows to me is that unless constrained by legislation almost all councils would rather impose council tax rises than make difficult decisions on spending cuts to freeze it.
Well, yes, probably. But what it shows to me is that apparently the government also wants to avoid having councils make those decisions, or agrees with those councils that they cannot cut any more, but doesn't want to admit it so is pretending to still constrain them to the same level while in fact relaxing the rules.
If only the government agreed that councils shouldn't cut anymore. The problem up north (and I know multiple councils with this issue) is that government grants are being cut far faster than council tax can rise resulting in some councils having to cut down to nothing except the barest legally required services (Darlington, Newcastle, Gateshead, Trafford are all in this situation).
To discuss the claims, Rudd — whose brother Roland is the treasurer of the Britain Stronger in Europe campaign — appeared on the Today show with Justin Webb. Unfortunately for Rudd, Webb had done his research when it came to her claims. He proceeded to take her to task over the speech which he pointed out had a ‘bit of a plague of frogs feeling to it’.
She was so dreadful I switched off but justin had done a good job in preparing for it.
JUST when it seemed the contest between the rival Out campaigns could not get more bitter, it looks like it may be heading for court.
Arron Banks, the multi-millionaire behind Leave.eu, has served a writ on his rival Matthew Elliott, the election strategist behind the other key Brexit campaign, Vote Leave. It follows a dispute over the use of data in the campaign. Banks believes he has been libeled, and wants a public apology. Elliott was served documents by a bailiff on Monday. The matter is now in the hands of lawyers.
Mr. Eek, there's also some bad decision-making. I think a small fortune's been spent on a cycle route nobody wanted near Leeds, when the money could've been used rather more sensibly.
Adam Johnson gets sentenced today, I predict a social media meltdown, no matter what the sentence is.
I think I predicted 5 years after reviewing UK sentencing guidelines. Personally I think that's a touch much, but guidelines shouldn't be deviated from without good reason.
@GeoffM - prob don't have the same issue in Gib, but what happened to the local referendums to approve increases in council tax before they could be imposed?
No one asked me about the 4% increase in my bill last week, which has now made me £100 a year worse off.
2% max but the same allowed for social care. Clearly councils need more than 2 but the government doesn't want to be seen to be opening the floodgates so wont get rid of the referendum commitment and just gets round it. Bloody stupid.
What it shows to me is that unless constrained by legislation almost all councils would rather impose council tax rises than make difficult decisions on spending cuts to freeze it.
Well, yes, probably. But what it shows to me is that apparently the government also wants to avoid having councils make those decisions, or agrees with those councils that they cannot cut any more, but doesn't want to admit it so is pretending to still constrain them to the same level while in fact relaxing the rules.
If only the government agreed that councils shouldn't cut anymore. The problem up north (and I know multiple councils with this issue) is that government grants are being cut far faster than council tax can rise resulting in some councils having to cut down to nothing except the barest legally required services (Darlington, Newcastle, Gateshead, Trafford are all in this situation).
I think they've privately conceded the principle and the social care levy is an attempt to roll back on the insistence on cutting, but you're right that some councils in particular will feel it has not gone far enough.
Twould appear that the Labour Party fully support the E and A pullout by the BMA..
Hmm, it's purely the Government that are at fault here - their intransigence has led to this. Allied with the fact the public are fully behind the doctors the Government will back down.
Cameron will get rid of Hunt who is obviously out of his depth and there'll be a subsequent review and backtrack. He'll be gone within 6 months. Is there a market for Hunt's departure/sack date?
JUST when it seemed the contest between the rival Out campaigns could not get more bitter, it looks like it may be heading for court.
Arron Banks, the multi-millionaire behind Leave.eu, has served a writ on his rival Matthew Elliott, the election strategist behind the other key Brexit campaign, Vote Leave. It follows a dispute over the use of data in the campaign. Banks believes he has been libeled, and wants a public apology. Elliott was served documents by a bailiff on Monday. The matter is now in the hands of lawyers.
Adam Johnson gets sentenced today, I predict a social media meltdown, no matter what the sentence is.
I think I predicted 5 years after reviewing UK sentencing guidelines. Personally I think that's a touch much, but guidelines shouldn't be deviated from without good reason.
Reading from what Martin Brunt is tweeting from court, it'll be less than that, that said, I can see why a judge would want to use the sentence to act as a deterrent.
Martin Brunt: Johnson is low to middle risk of reoffending. He has agreed to psychosexual therapy.
" According to one complaint, when the usually composed Margaret Beckett launched into a diatribe accusing Corbyn of taking her party back to the Eighties, Milne stunned the room by loudly interrupting, "I'm surprised you remember the Eighties, Margaret.""
These included two Labour MPs who hope to win the nomination for London mayor – Sadiq Khan and David Lammy – as well as former foreign secretary Margaret Beckett, who is currently overseeing an inquiry into how Labour lost the election.
Lap it up, drink it in. That paragraph is an absolute HOOT looking back now.
I don't think the jihadists care too hoots about the reaction of PC Plod. I find the arguments often trotted out about not doing something (e.g. curtailing some liberty and showing ourselves to be hypoocrites) because it is what the jihadists would want nonsensical. As if the jihadists are only killing people as some form of extreme criticism of Western hypocrisy. They're killing because it is what they want to do. They're not going to stop if we stop being hypocrites. They want to destroy Western freedoms because they hate what they think the Western world stands for. So long as it is defeated they don't care whether that happens as a result of their actions or as a result of our reactions or a mixture of the two.
It often seems to me that the self-regarding nature of so much of the reaction is really quite narcissistic. It's as if even when jihadists act in the most violent way they are somehow bit players and our reactions are more important. It is a dilemma because on one level you don't want to give such people more importance than their immoral actions deserve. But if we just dismiss and do not make the effort to understand what is actually going on and what they are trying to do then we fail to understand and, therefore, really manage to avoid/mitigate and deal with the risks we run. To deal with a risk you have to understand it first. I don't think we do really understand the risks we run from an ideology so antipathetic to the whole basis of Western civilisation. And, to be clear, I think those risks are wider than simply the risk of terrorism.
The figures from NOAA are in for February 2016. As with the other global temperature datasets, February 2016 was the warmest February ever recorded.
It may not have dawned upon some of the right-wing fruitcakes that live on this blog but the world is warming significantly. No such thing as a "AGW trough" I'm afraid....
Unfortunately you are so ignorant of the basic principles of climatology that you have missed the whole point of an El Nino effect. It is a very stupid position to take because it means that when the temperatures drop over the next 5 years (as they will when we move to a La Nina event) you won't be able to point out that they are coming off the back of an El Nino and so shouldn't be used as an indicator of the direction of climate change. Well not without accepting how stupid your current comments are.
Put simply this is what happens when feck wits like you try to make points about science using data they don't understand.
'Re the idiot asking some woman to explain Brussels, there is no incitement to religious hatred there, IMO and both he and the police are behaving like morons.'
No no, surely this man's actions are the appalling 'backlash' those on the left are so worked up about....
It's perfectly reasonable to speak to someone who appears to be of the Muslim faith and ask them for their thoughts on the situation and their suggestion solutions (I have had before an interesting discussion with TSE on this point) but asking them to defend the actions of extremists within their own religion and explain themselves is just plain rude.
However, I don't think you should be arrested for being rude. It does seem that if you are rude at all to anyone from a religious or ethnic minority you now run the risk of arrest. It does not follow tha everyone being rude to them is inciting religious and racial hatred, nor that they should feel the collar of the law.
Personally, I think there is a boundary between social censure, reprimand, and satire, as a means of regulating poor behaviour, and the use of the law that is very poorly judged. So poorly in fact, that
I wouldn't dare have a casual conversation with anyone of Muslim appearance on this subject in public lest it go wrong. My motives simply wouldn't be trusted by the authorities and the presumption would be in favour of any 'victim' that felt subject to a hate crime. It's just too risky.
All it means is white Britons and Muslims are far less likely to talk to one another.
In this case, Cyclefree is right: the man at the centre, the police and the twitterati lynch mob are all acting like morons in this.
I'm writing a thread on what it means to be a Muslim in the UK (and what it means for UK politics)
I suspect I'm going to surprise some people.
If that bloke had said that to me, I would have replied with
"Dunno mate, I have no idea what makes a suicide bomber tick"
Like. I feel uncomfortable at times with the creeping Islamophobia on this blog and the wider World in general.
One is a Leave campaign, the other is a Farage personality cult.
True.
It is noticeable that none of the regular kippers on here seem able to utter a word in defence of Farage's behaviour in recent months.
According to what I've read the 2015 micro-targeting involved email and face-to-face discussion with swing voters focused on subjects they were known to be bothered about - jobs, schools, etc.
I don't think you can replicate that with Twitter for all kinds of reasons but mostly because undecided people don't look to Twitter feeds as a source of inspiration. The followers of a Twitter feed are mostly people who already agree with it. And most people aren't on Twitter at all.
There seems to be a majority for leave on this forum but I cannot come to a conclusion at this stage even though I am generally remain. David Cameron told the 1922 Committee he wanted 'time to think' on his Easter holiday in the Canaries. I do wonder if he may consider being less committed and more neutral on his return. In those circumstances it would be a boost to leave but even then I just think it is too soon to be confident of either outcome and would only expect matters to solidify in late May and during June
'Re the idiot asking some woman to explain Brussels, there is no incitement to religious hatred there, IMO and both he and the police are behaving like morons.'
No no, surely this man's actions are the appalling 'backlash' those on the left are so worked up about....
It's perfectly reasonable to speak to someone who appears to be of the Muslim faith and ask them for their thoughts on the situation and their suggestion solutions (I have had before an interesting discussion with TSE on this point) but asking them to defend the actions of extremists within their own religion and explain themselves is just plain rude.
However, I don't think you should be arrested for being rude. It does seem that if you are rude at all to anyone from a religious or ethnic minority you now run the risk of arrest. It does not follow tha everyone being rude to them is inciting religious and racial hatred, nor that they should feel the collar of the law.
Personally, I think there is a boundary between social censure, reprimand, and satire, as a means of regulating poor behaviour, and the use of the law that is very poorly judged. So poorly in fact, that
I wouldn't dare have a casual conversation with anyone of Muslim appearance on this subject in public lest it go wrong. My motives simply wouldn't be trusted by the authorities and the presumption would be in favour of any 'victim' that felt subject to a hate crime. It's just too risky.
All it means is white Britons and Muslims are far less likely to talk to one another.
In this case, Cyclefree is right: the man at the centre, the police and the twitterati lynch mob are all acting like morons in this.
I'm writing a thread on what it means to be a Muslim in the UK (and what it means for UK politics)
I suspect I'm going to surprise some people.
If that bloke had said that to me, I would have replied with
"Dunno mate, I have no idea what makes a suicide bomber tick"
Like. I feel uncomfortable at times with the creeping Islamophobia on this blog and the wider World in general.
I favour TSE's approach: we should send everyone to English public schools.
George Osborne's ratings have plunged, according to exclusive polling taken before and after his disastrous eighth Budget.
The full scale of the damage is revealed in Ipsos MORI research showing public hostility has grown towards the Chancellor, his policies and even David Cameron.
Adam Johnson gets sentenced today, I predict a social media meltdown, no matter what the sentence is.
I think I predicted 5 years after reviewing UK sentencing guidelines. Personally I think that's a touch much, but guidelines shouldn't be deviated from without good reason.
Reading from what Martin Brunt is tweeting from court, it'll be less than that, that said, I can see why a judge would want to use the sentence to act as a deterrent.
Martin Brunt: Johnson is low to middle risk of reoffending. He has agreed to psychosexual therapy.
UKIP success is allowed as long as it's their success and they are more successful than anyone else within the party.
Indeed. The big "known unknown" still to come this campaign is finding out which Leave campaign is designated as the primary one and the commensurate amount of publicity they receive.
Personally as a swing voter on this I would be deeply put off by the Banks/Farage/Galloway/Bone Leave.EU campaign but am attracted to the Gove/Johnson/Hannan/Carswell/Hoey Vote Leave campaign. Others may be in an opposite position.
I think opinion polls before this is finalised in April should be taken with an extra large pinch of salt.
Comments
Outstanding. World Socialist Website condemns Corbyn and McDonnell as Thatcherite sellouts. https://t.co/IhZHNof65Z https://t.co/dkTndOTPe6
Remember everyone, Trotskyites are just a tool of the capitalists too.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/video/2016/mar/24/donald-trump-britain-will-vote-to-leave-eu-video?CMP=twt_a-politics_b-gdnukpolitics
Cameron would have resigned and there would have been no threat of "the SNP writing Labour's budget".
So Cameron's majority could not have been bigger.
Unless this is just a pre-cursor to passport free travel then it does seem like mountains out of molehills.
O'Jays " Back Stabbers " (great to dance to) - An omen of what awaits him if he carries on fronting REMAIN.
Arron Banks, the multi-millionaire behind Leave.eu, has served a writ on his rival Matthew Elliott, the election strategist behind the other key Brexit campaign, Vote Leave. It follows a dispute over the use of data in the campaign. Banks believes he has been libeled, and wants a public apology. Elliott was served documents by a bailiff on Monday. The matter is now in the hands of lawyers.
http://www.isabeloakeshott.com/courting-controversy/
I'm very sceptical of the general PB thread memes. They were mostly wrong about Lib Dems and a Tory win.
We're seeing more confirmation bias again now IMHO.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/mar/23/ukip-suzanne-evans-suspended-disloyalty-nigel-farage
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-35888748
Also, 'racial hatred' - Islam isn't a race...
I thought it was a joke when I first heard about it. Didn't realise he'd actually done it.
But arrested? #tryingdoingsomethinguseful
Where's the PR professionalism here? It's so inept and asking for it.
At this stage in 2014 there had not been any polls in 2014 that had a lead for YES. Contrast that with the leads that LEAVE have been getting!
3 months away, the NO leads were 7% to 19%. It finished up with a lead of 11%. 4% above the worst case for NO and 8% below the top point for NO. That UK elect website says that the polls are 50/50. Applying that rationale REMAIN may be in the range of 54% to 42% which is ... not very good.... More risk of down side than upside.
Is that as useful as a flag referendum comparison?
(Innocent face from irritating poster trying patience of OGH sir)
It's not really a campaign slogan, but it's what I tell myself...
It goes from ridiculous to madness. Euro Human Rights Chief says " dont call them ILLEGAL immigrants, but IRREGULAR immigrants." EU bullshit
Militant union more important than patient safety...
We should remember, though, that saying something is a 16/1 shot isn't saying it won't happen.
The proper balance between individual and collective responsibility is, however, a very interesting one - something I have had to think about in the context of banking - and as I have some time off next week, I may do a thread header on it.
It will - ref @rcs100 and @Charles - not be about the EU, at least.
@TSE will have to shower me with Easter eggs, though............
No no, surely this man's actions are the appalling 'backlash' those on the left are so worked up about....
Marvellous.
I may help myself to some shoes when I'm next in LK Bennett and call it "IRREGULAR SHOPPING".
Whatever happened to the influence of the Freedom Association behind the scenes?
You may have a view one way or the other on what's best but local democracy is a sham.
The figures from NOAA are in for February 2016. As with the other global temperature datasets, February 2016 was the warmest February ever recorded.
It may not have dawned upon some of the right-wing fruitcakes that live on this blog but the world is warming significantly. No such thing as a "AGW trough" I'm afraid....
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201602
It is noticeable that none of the regular kippers on here seem able to utter a word in defence of Farage's behaviour in recent months.
"Turkey is the only country on the track to EU membership ever denied visa-free travel. Although 95 per cent of Schengen travel-area visa applications are accepted, around 36,000 individuals were refused in 2014"
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/8e17db1c-e617-11e5-ac45-5c039e797d1c.html#axzz43oPpVOQU
make of those nos what you will...
I don't mean Cameron.
http://order-order.com/2016/03/24/tom-brakes-cover-to-deliver-dodgy-excuse/
"Eco-hypocrite Tom Brake has finally proffered a explanation as to why he was caught with the lights on at his Sutton home during Earth Hour. This was despite having told his constituents to “turn off their lights or show their support for the future of this planet in any other way on the 19th at 8.30pm.” Speaking to the Sutton Guardian, Brake gave them this classic: “I never said I was going to take part in Earth Hour.”"
Well perhaps the lack of any backlash makes us look weak to the fundamentalists, yes.
But the reaction of our dear Mr.Plod must make them salivate.
I've seen a dozen or more X For Brexit niche groups on Twitter all appealing to their own demographic. They're copying the micro targeting of GE 2015.
But please do a thread header, your first thread was brilliant and a joy to publish.
However, I don't think you should be arrested for being rude. It does seem that if you are rude at all to anyone from a religious or ethnic minority you now run the risk of arrest. It does not follow tha everyone being rude to them is inciting religious and racial hatred, nor that they should feel the collar of the law.
Personally, I think there is a boundary between social censure, reprimand, and satire, as a means of regulating poor behaviour, and the use of the law that is very poorly judged. So poorly in fact, that
I wouldn't dare have a casual conversation with anyone of Muslim appearance on this subject in public lest it go wrong. My motives simply wouldn't be trusted by the authorities and the presumption would be in favour of any 'victim' that felt subject to a hate crime. It's just too risky.
All it means is white Britons and Muslims are far less likely to talk to one another.
In this case, Cyclefree is right: the man at the centre, the police and the twitterati lynch mob are all acting like morons in this.
Tom Newton Dunn
@tnewtondunn
Rainbow gag klaxon: @wesstreeting to Osb: "When President Obama visits he'll probably think you've changed your name from Jeffrey to Bungle"
Had Douglas Carswell not defected, UKIP would have ended up with nearly four million votes and no MPs at the last general election
One positive difference for Remain, vs Better Together, is that Remain has the British Government campaigning hard for it whereas in SIndy the Scottish Government was on the Yes side (and the British Government took a relatively low key approach for obvious reasons). So there are some grounds for Remain to be optimistic.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/03/listen-justin-webb-takes-amber-rudd-to-task-on-today-over-her-plague-of-frogs-brexit-claims/
I suspect I'm going to surprise some people.
If that bloke had said that to me, I would have replied with
"Dunno mate, I have no idea what makes a suicide bomber tick"
http://www.gq-magazine.co.uk/article/seumas-milne-labour-spin-doctor-jeremy-corbyn
" According to one complaint, when the usually composed Margaret Beckett launched into a diatribe accusing Corbyn of taking her party back to the Eighties, Milne stunned the room by loudly interrupting, "I'm surprised you remember the Eighties, Margaret.""
Oh please - no-one takes him remotely seriously
Cameron will get rid of Hunt who is obviously out of his depth and there'll be a subsequent review and backtrack. He'll be gone within 6 months. Is there a market for Hunt's departure/sack date?
Martin Brunt: Johnson is low to middle risk of reoffending. He has agreed to psychosexual therapy.
These included two Labour MPs who hope to win the nomination for London mayor – Sadiq Khan and David Lammy – as well as former foreign secretary Margaret Beckett, who is currently overseeing an inquiry into how Labour lost the election.
Lap it up, drink it in. That paragraph is an absolute HOOT looking back now.
He's a very clever chap and Establishment to his core.
I don't think the jihadists care too hoots about the reaction of PC Plod. I find the arguments often trotted out about not doing something (e.g. curtailing some liberty and showing ourselves to be hypoocrites) because it is what the jihadists would want nonsensical. As if the jihadists are only killing people as some form of extreme criticism of Western hypocrisy. They're killing because it is what they want to do. They're not going to stop if we stop being hypocrites. They want to destroy Western freedoms because they hate what they think the Western world stands for. So long as it is defeated they don't care whether that happens as a result of their actions or as a result of our reactions or a mixture of the two.
It often seems to me that the self-regarding nature of so much of the reaction is really quite narcissistic. It's as if even when jihadists act in the most violent way they are somehow bit players and our reactions are more important. It is a dilemma because on one level you don't want to give such people more importance than their immoral actions deserve. But if we just dismiss and do not make the effort to understand what is actually going on and what they are trying to do then we fail to understand and, therefore, really manage to avoid/mitigate and deal with the risks we run. To deal with a risk you have to understand it first. I don't think we do really understand the risks we run from an ideology so antipathetic to the whole basis of Western civilisation. And, to be clear, I think those risks are wider than simply the risk of terrorism.
The court is told the doctors report said #AdamJohnson "carelessly and recklessly disregarded victim's age".
Put simply this is what happens when feck wits like you try to make points about science using data they don't understand.
I don't think you can replicate that with Twitter for all kinds of reasons but mostly because undecided people don't look to Twitter feeds as a source of inspiration. The followers of a Twitter feed are mostly people who already agree with it. And most people aren't on Twitter at all.
Personally as a swing voter on this I would be deeply put off by the Banks/Farage/Galloway/Bone Leave.EU campaign but am attracted to the Gove/Johnson/Hannan/Carswell/Hoey Vote Leave campaign. Others may be in an opposite position.
I think opinion polls before this is finalised in April should be taken with an extra large pinch of salt.