politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The New Zealand flag referendum goes strongly for the statu

One of the massive challenges for LEAVE is that there’s a strong history in elections from many countries of the status quo prevailing. We saw that in Scotland in September 2014 as well as in the UK EC referendum of 1975.
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This is an argument? Without absurd scaremongers and big business vested interest, Remain is nothing. It's a campaign with nothing positive to say.
'Brexit likely to be ‘electric shock’, says Amber Rudd'
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/47367f0c-f11e-11e5-9f20-c3a047354386.html#axzz43oKWweWn
A country fully able and capable of making an even bigger success of itself as an independent global nation.
I'll go back 100 threads....
See you all in a bit.
According to What UK Thinks, Leave are ahead in rolling polls, and Leave has much better GOTV demographics.
Too many Remainers resemble Lib Dems Winning Here mindsets.
If we vote to remain in the EU we will continue to surrender more and more sovereignty to Brussels.
It'll be a humdinger.
That seems less the case here, we have instead got no positive case that I've seen to date, just fear. Where is the positive reason to like the EU?
I'm shocked at how lazy Remain is being there, especially when it has a unified campaign. They could win due to fear of the unknown alone, but without a pull for a reason for loyalty to the status quo they are playing a risky game here.
I reckon Dave's taken a hit on the leadership front and might even trail Jez as the fieldwork might have been at a sub optimal time for the Tories.
So all that means bad news for Remain.
'An exclusive survey for the Daily Record, unveiled hours after the Queen signed the Scotland Bill that formalises new powers for Holyrood, shows the No side would win 52 per cent to 48 per cent if another referendum was held today.'
http://tinyurl.com/go3ano9
I'm sick to death of the EU
I think this is a critical point. Apart from a lunatic fringe, there is no loyalty or affection for the EU in this country.
People will be delighted to vote against en masse it if their misgivings over the economy etc. can be allayed, and may even do so if those misgivings remain.
This of course explains why Project Lie is structured as it is and the government is making no effort at all to outline a positive political case for EU membership. It knows such a pitch would go down like a cup of cold sick.
It's not some 4th rate media studies subject.
Being PM is all about persuading others, that's why his EU deal is beyond crap. He's the talent to twist arms and didn't use it.
http://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/03/yes-donald-trump-is-grotesque-but-i-will-never-vote-for-hillary-clinton/
Sanders would beat any GOP candidate as he is the insurgent and establishment backers would eventually get behind him. Hillary is asking the insurgent backers to get behind her, it is not going to be easy, especially since the GOP are highly likely to be putting up their own insurgent, anti-establishment type.
Totally misleading - I heard the exchange on teabags for instance:
BJ: Teabags are an example of the UK goldplating EU regulation. Based on [regulation relating to recycling of materials that have been in contact with milk or dairy products] Cardiff Council has banned the recycling of teabags
AT: [interrupting] So you are admitting that the EU has not banned recycling of teabags
BJ: As I said, based on EU regulation, Cardiff Council has banned recycling of teabags
I await a positive case for Remain.
http://order-order.com/2016/03/23/tom-brakes-his-own-earth-hour-pledge/
I believe that was the headline in yesterday’s Guardian article which greatly annoyed me at the time as the result says so much more about New Zealand's national identity and tradition than just the ‘status quo’. - Same goes for the EU referenda, it isn’t about the ‘status quo’, it’s a vote to stay aboard the train wreck, heading towards a totally federalised Europe.
Rant over, good morning all
Headlined
Why Remain's shrinking leads are in fact bad news for Leave and great for Remain
No one believes it. Yet some continue to claim it. It totally undermines their whole credibility.
I didn't spend over a decade in hot issues PR and miss this.
Hopefully the status quo will win the referendum.
Britain to be sovereign country, not sucked into the EU.
Time to think about a slight shift of position on Remain?
On the other side of the coin, however, I notice that The Daily Telegraph has as its front page headline this morning: Quitting EU 'would help our security' ..... quoting a former MI6 chief saying that borders could be strengthened and extremists deported were the UK to leave the EU.
@politicshome: David Davis: EU-Turkey deal increases terrorist access: https://t.co/0vbSVd4X23 (£)
Well in the words of the great Scottish judge Lord Braxfield (when a defendant compared himself to Christ) 'He was hingit tae'
Perhaps. Or to use a suitable moment to step back from the fight, eg "this is my position and my deal, but I'm not taking any further part in the debate - it's up to each side to persuade the people - and I will as PM implement whoever wins".
I know I am starting to sound like a loon ranting on about this but the status of the Supreme Court was irrevocably altered in the minds of the American public by their decision Bush vs Gore in 2000 - a decision they knew was so bad they made it non-binding for future cases.
SCOTUS is not an irrelevance or just of interest to political nerds, it is a key, heavily reported on, high profile part of the American political and cultural landscape.
Come Novemeber the 5th when the choice between getting the 9th Justice nominated is by Hillary or by the Heritage Foundation (who are drawing up the Trump short list) Sanders voters will turn out for Hillary because then it won't be about voting for Hilary (which they have little appetite for) but voting for a seismic shift in the interpretation of the law leftwards (which they are enthusiastic about).
Drone "I did my best"
Boss "Do the best of someone better"
Must be worth an article on here as an omen of the way the vote will go?
Innocent face.
If Cameron had wanted change he could have pursued that. Now imagine coming back and selling a deal to the public that includes -
1. Minimal disruption to existing trade links
2. An end to the UK's participation in the CAP and CFP
3. No more political integration
4. No more justice and home affairs integration
5. More wiggle room to reduce immigration
6. A fiscal dividend of several billion
'In Europe, but not run by Europe' indeed.
I think he would have walked a referendum on those terms.
But he and his friends want more integration. That's the problem.
Jill Knight, Baroness Knight of Colingtree, retires from the House of Lords today - she is the oldest living female former MP, age 92
Just think, if the SNP had won their indyref, then it is most likely we would now have PM Miliband giving Scotland it's 'freedom' whilst taking England & Wales even further into the EU.
Something to be grateful for.
Got to laugh at the cherry picking.
Just check the top piece here (it's only brief), and it'll cover the basics of Jesus/Easter: http://thaddeuswhite.weebly.com/free-stories.html
Some civil servants are just like my loved ones
They work so hard and they try to be strong
I'm a lucky guy to live in my building
They own the buildings to help them along
(Talking Heads)
Are you making the mistake of trying to draw parallels between it and the UK courts because they couldn't be further apart in terms of public perception. The Republican senators blocking even having confirmation hearings for Garland is going down really badly, two thirds of the public think they should hold confirmation hearings. The general public has easily pollable opinions about the Supreme Court - on basic favoutrable/unfavourable question only 5% have no opinion. this isn't the mark of an institution that is of limited interest to people.
What the study points out is that history suggests that as referendums draw closer the status quo picks up votes and it continues right through polling day as many undecideds decide not to take the risk at the last moment. Now if you ave some stats to argue against that feel free because I am not seeing any yet.