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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The New Zealand flag referendum goes strongly for the statu

SystemSystem Posts: 12,267
edited March 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The New Zealand flag referendum goes strongly for the status quo: A pointer for EURef

One of the massive challenges for LEAVE is that there’s a strong history in elections from many countries of the status quo prevailing. We saw that in Scotland in September 2014 as well as in the UK EC referendum of 1975.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,433
    and I like it, I like it, I like it, I like it, I li-li-like it, li-li-like it
  • runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    silly
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    May 5 sees a total of 11 separate elections taking place across the UK. June 23 is #EUref #Important #busytimeahead https://t.co/HNR8bTkpfL
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    edited March 2016
    Seriously?

    This is an argument? Without absurd scaremongers and big business vested interest, Remain is nothing. It's a campaign with nothing positive to say.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,433
    On what would have been Scottish Independence Day, we're reminded again why so many like to remain and retain their links with Le Royaume-Uni, the greatest country in the world.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    The difference for me is there IS no status quo in Europe. A vote for remain is a vote for ever closer union. The EU is not a fixed entity, it is a region in flux.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,798
    Plato_Says said:

    Seriously?

    This is an argument?

    Yep, the vote for most people would have been as interesting as another AV referendum - a technical vote with no immediate consequences for those voting
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,728
    In short. No. Some pretty desperate clutching at straws here.
  • dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    On what would have been Scottish Independence Day, we're reminded again why so many like to remain and retain their links with Le Royaume-Uni, the greatest country in the world.

    because it will improve their chances of winning eurovision?
  • runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    Meanwhiel, Project Blatant Lie continues...particularly absurd, this one

    'Brexit likely to be ‘electric shock’, says Amber Rudd'

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/47367f0c-f11e-11e5-9f20-c3a047354386.html#axzz43oKWweWn
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,262
    I'm a strong supporter of the existing New Zealand flag but, another way of looking at it, the status quo had very strong and clear leads in the polls over the alternate flag design for months, but the final vote was much closer than expected.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,262
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    On what would have been Scottish Independence Day, we're reminded again why so many like to remain and retain their links with Le Royaume-Uni, the greatest country in the world.

    Amen.

    A country fully able and capable of making an even bigger success of itself as an independent global nation.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,663
    Lets have a tot up....

    I'll go back 100 threads....

    See you all in a bit.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    After feeling Remain would win handsomely, the desperate claims of their supporters makes me wonder.

    According to What UK Thinks, Leave are ahead in rolling polls, and Leave has much better GOTV demographics.

    Too many Remainers resemble Lib Dems Winning Here mindsets.
  • dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    and I like it, I like it, I like it, I like it, I li-li-like it, li-li-like it

    I think they had dropped the "The" by then
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    She was annihilated in a single Andrew Neil tweet.
    runnymede said:

    Meanwhiel, Project Blatant Lie continues...particularly absurd, this one

    'Brexit likely to be ‘electric shock’, says Amber Rudd'

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/47367f0c-f11e-11e5-9f20-c3a047354386.html#axzz43oKWweWn

  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    taffys said:

    The difference for me is there IS no status quo in Europe. A vote for remain is a vote for ever closer union. The EU is not a fixed entity, it is a region in flux.

    Agreed x1000.

    If we vote to remain in the EU we will continue to surrender more and more sovereignty to Brussels.
  • CityunslickerCityunslicker Posts: 60
    Best never try to change anything then. That's the spirit.
  • runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    When I see people like Amber Rudd in action, I wonder if we actually voted for a firm of empty-headed PR clowns rather than the Conservative Party.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,433
    edited March 2016
    The Ipsos Mori phone poll should be out around lunch time. Contains VI, Gold Standard leadership ratings and a EU Ref poll.

    It'll be a humdinger.
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    LEAVE slowly gains in polls and now another pro-REMAIN article based on the other side of the globe voting for a flag.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Normally people have a vested interest in the status quo. A positive case for loyalty to the status quo as well as fear of the change.

    That seems less the case here, we have instead got no positive case that I've seen to date, just fear. Where is the positive reason to like the EU?

    I'm shocked at how lazy Remain is being there, especially when it has a unified campaign. They could win due to fear of the unknown alone, but without a pull for a reason for loyalty to the status quo they are playing a risky game here.
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The Ipsos Mori phone poll should be out around lunch time. Contains VI, Gold Standard leadership ratings and a EU Ref poll.

    It'll be a humdinger.

    Must be in favour of REMAIN if you are boosting it.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    CLAPS
    Cityunslicker said:

    Best never try to change anything then. That's the spirit.

  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    runnymede said:

    When I see people like Amber Rudd in action, I wonder if we actually voted for a firm of empty-headed PR clowns rather than the Conservative Party.

    She is the sister of Roland Rudd. What do you expect?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Their exchanges were wonderfully entertaining, although possibly less so to campaigners for Brexit. One by one, Mr Tyrie examined a series of claims the Mayor had made about the EU’s myriad horrors, and ventured politely that, in each case, he was mistaken.

    No, the EU had not banned children under eight from blowing up balloons. No, it had not banned the recycling of tea bags. No, it had not dictated limits on the size of coffins. (“The story appears,” suggested Mr Tyrie gently, “to be a figment of your imagination.”)

    The Mayor defended himself with typical gusto. The problem, he retorted, was that in Britain “we do relish bureaucracy”, and as a result we had “over-zealously” implemented rules that other European countries hadn’t bothered with.

    Silently the committee attempted to digest the notion that the British were too bureaucratic for the EU.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/boris-johnson/12202541/EU-referendum-Boris-Johnson-and-the-mystery-of-the-missing-tea-bags.html
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,346
    I think Mike is just taking the piss now! :O
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,663
    Having gone back 31 threads, I've found ~ 4 Pro BSiE; 2 I'd classify as positive for leave (Both based on polling), and 6 Anti George Osborne threads !
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,433
    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The Ipsos Mori phone poll should be out around lunch time. Contains VI, Gold Standard leadership ratings and a EU Ref poll.

    It'll be a humdinger.

    Must be in favour of REMAIN if you are boosting it.
    I've not seen it yet. It'll be exciting, I reckon this poll will have Lab ahead as the certainty to vote filter is very severe and causes the occasional amusing outlier.

    I reckon Dave's taken a hit on the leadership front and might even trail Jez as the fieldwork might have been at a sub optimal time for the Tories.

    So all that means bad news for Remain.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,863
    edited March 2016
    Casino_Royale said:

    @GeoffM - prob don't have the same issue in Gib, but what happened to the local referendums to approve increases in council tax before they could be imposed?

    No one asked me about the 4% increase in my bill last week, which has now made me £100 a year worse off.

    2% max but the same allowed for social care. Clearly councils need more than 2 but the government doesn't want to be seen to be opening the floodgates so wont get rid of the referendum commitment and just gets round it. Bloody stupid.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,390
    Will Fisher be making a study of polling after the status quo has won referendums?

    'An exclusive survey for the Daily Record, unveiled hours after the Queen signed the Scotland Bill that formalises new powers for Holyrood, shows the No side would win 52 per cent to 48 per cent if another referendum was held today.'

    http://tinyurl.com/go3ano9
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,433
    Pulpstar said:

    Having gone back 31 threads, I've found ~ 4 Pro BSiE; 2 I'd classify as positive for leave (Both based on polling), and 6 Anti George Osborne threads !

    I wrote most of those anti George threads.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,863
    I liked some designs for the flag, but the who,e process was silly. No clamour for change, a vote to decide alternate design before it was determined they wanted a change, then another vote. Waste of money.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The Ipsos Mori phone poll should be out around lunch time. Contains VI, Gold Standard leadership ratings and a EU Ref poll.

    It'll be a humdinger.

    Please, pretty please can you write the header on the VI/leadership ratings?

    I'm sick to death of the EU
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    I really get irritated by this. Getting others to agree with you and more importantly trust you on big stuff is precisely what politics is about.

    It's not some 4th rate media studies subject.

    Being PM is all about persuading others, that's why his EU deal is beyond crap. He's the talent to twist arms and didn't use it.
    runnymede said:

    When I see people like Amber Rudd in action, I wonder if we actually voted for a firm of empty-headed PR clowns rather than the Conservative Party.

  • runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    'A positive case for loyalty to the status quo as well as fear of the change. '

    I think this is a critical point. Apart from a lunatic fringe, there is no loyalty or affection for the EU in this country.

    People will be delighted to vote against en masse it if their misgivings over the economy etc. can be allayed, and may even do so if those misgivings remain.

    This of course explains why Project Lie is structured as it is and the government is making no effort at all to outline a positive political case for EU membership. It knows such a pitch would go down like a cup of cold sick.
  • LewisDuckworthLewisDuckworth Posts: 379
    If one believed Cameron/May?HoganHowe etc., ISIS will support a Brexit victory as this makes the security and intelligence less vigilant ... perhaps, in June, they'll make some effort to influence the result ... But, luckily, we've still got the Belgians on our side ...
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,346
    An article for those who think the Sanders vote is just going to automatically fall into Hillary's lap:

    http://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/03/yes-donald-trump-is-grotesque-but-i-will-never-vote-for-hillary-clinton/

    Sanders would beat any GOP candidate as he is the insurgent and establishment backers would eventually get behind him. Hillary is asking the insurgent backers to get behind her, it is not going to be easy, especially since the GOP are highly likely to be putting up their own insurgent, anti-establishment type.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,433
    Charles said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The Ipsos Mori phone poll should be out around lunch time. Contains VI, Gold Standard leadership ratings and a EU Ref poll.

    It'll be a humdinger.

    Please, pretty please can you write the header on the VI/leadership ratings?

    I'm sick to death of the EU
    For Easter Sunday I'm doing a thread comparing George Osborne to Jesus Christ.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Scott_P said:

    Their exchanges were wonderfully entertaining, although possibly less so to campaigners for Brexit. One by one, Mr Tyrie examined a series of claims the Mayor had made about the EU’s myriad horrors, and ventured politely that, in each case, he was mistaken.

    No, the EU had not banned children under eight from blowing up balloons. No, it had not banned the recycling of tea bags. No, it had not dictated limits on the size of coffins. (“The story appears,” suggested Mr Tyrie gently, “to be a figment of your imagination.”)

    The Mayor defended himself with typical gusto. The problem, he retorted, was that in Britain “we do relish bureaucracy”, and as a result we had “over-zealously” implemented rules that other European countries hadn’t bothered with.

    Silently the committee attempted to digest the notion that the British were too bureaucratic for the EU.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/boris-johnson/12202541/EU-referendum-Boris-Johnson-and-the-mystery-of-the-missing-tea-bags.html

    Totally misleading - I heard the exchange on teabags for instance:

    BJ: Teabags are an example of the UK goldplating EU regulation. Based on [regulation relating to recycling of materials that have been in contact with milk or dairy products] Cardiff Council has banned the recycling of teabags

    AT: [interrupting] So you are admitting that the EU has not banned recycling of teabags

    BJ: As I said, based on EU regulation, Cardiff Council has banned recycling of teabags
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    The Remainders are searching for straws to clutch.

    I await a positive case for Remain.
    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    LEAVE slowly gains in polls and now another pro-REMAIN article based on the other side of the globe voting for a flag.

  • GideonWiseGideonWise Posts: 1,123
    Fallon reckons the Brussels attacks shows why we shouldn't leave the EU.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,863
    Plato_Says said:

    I really get irritated by this. Getting others to agree with you and more importantly trust you on big stuff is precisely what politics is about.

    It's not some 4th rate media studies subject.

    Being PM is all about persuading others, that's why his EU deal is beyond crap. He's the talent to twist arms and didn't use it.

    runnymede said:

    When I see people like Amber Rudd in action, I wonder if we actually voted for a firm of empty-headed PR clowns rather than the Conservative Party.

    He has a talent for it, but I think those he went up against are better at twisting arms than he, quite frankly, if less subtlety in doing so.
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    ICYMI Lib Dem climate change campaigner. Do as I say...
    http://order-order.com/2016/03/23/tom-brakes-his-own-earth-hour-pledge/
  • runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    Fallon is obviously an intelligent man, unlike the airhead Rudd. What a shame he choose to demean himself in this way.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Charles said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The Ipsos Mori phone poll should be out around lunch time. Contains VI, Gold Standard leadership ratings and a EU Ref poll.

    It'll be a humdinger.

    Please, pretty please can you write the header on the VI/leadership ratings?

    I'm sick to death of the EU
    For Easter Sunday I'm doing a thread comparing George Osborne to Jesus Christ.
    George turns water into whines?

  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    ‘The New Zealand flag referendum goes strongly for the status quo:’

    I believe that was the headline in yesterday’s Guardian article which greatly annoyed me at the time as the result says so much more about New Zealand's national identity and tradition than just the ‘status quo’. - Same goes for the EU referenda, it isn’t about the ‘status quo’, it’s a vote to stay aboard the train wreck, heading towards a totally federalised Europe.

    Rant over, good morning all :lol:
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,433
    Charles said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Charles said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The Ipsos Mori phone poll should be out around lunch time. Contains VI, Gold Standard leadership ratings and a EU Ref poll.

    It'll be a humdinger.

    Please, pretty please can you write the header on the VI/leadership ratings?

    I'm sick to death of the EU
    For Easter Sunday I'm doing a thread comparing George Osborne to Jesus Christ.
    George turns water into whines?

    Rising from the dead, to lead the Tory party.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,863
    Cityunslicker said:

    Best never try to change anything then. That's the spirit.

    As a great man once said "you tried your best and failed miserably. The lesson is never try."
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,080
    My leg-pulling sense is tingling.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,798
    runnymede said:

    When I see people like Amber Rudd in action, I wonder if we actually voted for a firm of empty-headed PR clowns rather than the Conservative Party.

    Well we previously (in 97) voted for a different firm of empty-headed PR clowns leading the Labour party so Yes.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,433
    edited March 2016
    Mind you I reckon my other thread is going to cause some PBers apoplexy.

    Headlined

    Why Remain's shrinking leads are in fact bad news for Leave and great for Remain
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Charles said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The Ipsos Mori phone poll should be out around lunch time. Contains VI, Gold Standard leadership ratings and a EU Ref poll.

    It'll be a humdinger.

    Please, pretty please can you write the header on the VI/leadership ratings?

    I'm sick to death of the EU
    For Easter Sunday I'm doing a thread comparing George Osborne to Jesus Christ.
    Are you that familar with christianity to write on that subject?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,433
    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Charles said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The Ipsos Mori phone poll should be out around lunch time. Contains VI, Gold Standard leadership ratings and a EU Ref poll.

    It'll be a humdinger.

    Please, pretty please can you write the header on the VI/leadership ratings?

    I'm sick to death of the EU
    For Easter Sunday I'm doing a thread comparing George Osborne to Jesus Christ.
    Are you that familar with christianity to write on that subject?
    Yes.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Stuff like this fails Common Sense 101.

    No one believes it. Yet some continue to claim it. It totally undermines their whole credibility.

    I didn't spend over a decade in hot issues PR and miss this.
    GideonWise said:

    Fallon reckons the Brussels attacks shows why we shouldn't leave the EU.

  • PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,275
    Plato_Says said:

    The Remainders are searching for straws to clutch.

    I await a positive case for Remain.

    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    LEAVE slowly gains in polls and now another pro-REMAIN article based on the other side of the globe voting for a flag.

    As Project Fear becomes ever more preposterous I think key ingredient for LEAVE is humour. There are few better ways to debunk nonsense than to make it the object of comedy and ridicule.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    Hopefully the status quo will win the referendum.

    Britain to be sovereign country, not sucked into the EU.

  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Plato_Says said:

    The Remainders are searching for straws to clutch.

    I await a positive case for Remain.

    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    LEAVE slowly gains in polls and now another pro-REMAIN article based on the other side of the globe voting for a flag.

    The telegraph reports dave is telling his MPs he needs time to think...

    Time to think about a slight shift of position on Remain?
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    Sorry Mike, but I'm struggling to see any correlation between NZ retaining its national flag design and the UK remaining in the UK. Indeed on purely traditional grounds it's possible to argue the opposite case.
    On the other side of the coin, however, I notice that The Daily Telegraph has as its front page headline this morning: Quitting EU 'would help our security' ..... quoting a former MI6 chief saying that borders could be strengthened and extremists deported were the UK to leave the EU.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    PeterC said:

    As Project Fear becomes ever more preposterous

    Like this?

    @politicshome: David Davis: EU-Turkey deal increases terrorist access: https://t.co/0vbSVd4X23 (£)
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    Plato_Says said:

    I really get irritated by this. Getting others to agree with you and more importantly trust you on big stuff is precisely what politics is about.
    It's not some 4th rate media studies subject.
    Being PM is all about persuading others, that's why his EU deal is beyond crap. He's the talent to twist arms and didn't use it.

    runnymede said:

    When I see people like Amber Rudd in action, I wonder if we actually voted for a firm of empty-headed PR clowns rather than the Conservative Party.

    Cameron ignored the basic rule of negotiating, make the other side believe you can walk away.
  • runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    For Easter Sunday I'm doing a thread comparing George Osborne to Jesus Christ.

    Well in the words of the great Scottish judge Lord Braxfield (when a defendant compared himself to Christ) 'He was hingit tae'
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,433
    peter_from_putney said:

    Sorry Mike, but I'm struggling to see any correlation between NZ retaining its national flag design and the UK remaining in the UK. Indeed on purely traditional grounds it's possible to argue the opposite case.
    On the other side of the coin, however, I notice that The Daily Telegraph has as its front page headline this morning: Quitting EU 'would help our security' ..... quoting a former MI6 chief saying that borders could be strengthened and extremists deported were the UK to leave the EU.

    That would be the Sir Richard Dearlove, who was head of the SIS when the dodgy intelligence dossiers were produced ?
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    I disagree, Cameron is a merciless bruiser when it suits him. He's called Flashman for good reason.
    kle4 said:

    Plato_Says said:

    I really get irritated by this. Getting others to agree with you and more importantly trust you on big stuff is precisely what politics is about.

    It's not some 4th rate media studies subject.

    Being PM is all about persuading others, that's why his EU deal is beyond crap. He's the talent to twist arms and didn't use it.

    runnymede said:

    When I see people like Amber Rudd in action, I wonder if we actually voted for a firm of empty-headed PR clowns rather than the Conservative Party.

    He has a talent for it, but I think those he went up against are better at twisting arms than he, quite frankly, if less subtlety in doing so.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,863
    edited March 2016
    Plato_Says said:

    The Remainders are searching for straws to clutch.

    I await a positive case for Remain.

    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    LEAVE slowly gains in polls and now another pro-REMAIN article based on the other side of the globe voting for a flag.

    The positive case would be that more eu integration and control, as will happen,is a good thing. Not many would go for that, so we have this act where people have to qualify any statement of wanting to remain with desperate spassurance they don't like yptbe Euro, or at least that they have achieved or will achieve improvements. It's not a simple message, and lacks passion, the combination if which is why I think the status quo will do worse than some think
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    taffys said:

    Plato_Says said:

    The Remainders are searching for straws to clutch.

    I await a positive case for Remain.

    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    LEAVE slowly gains in polls and now another pro-REMAIN article based on the other side of the globe voting for a flag.

    The telegraph reports dave is telling his MPs he needs time to think...

    Time to think about a slight shift of position on Remain?

    Perhaps. Or to use a suitable moment to step back from the fight, eg "this is my position and my deal, but I'm not taking any further part in the debate - it's up to each side to persuade the people - and I will as PM implement whoever wins".

  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    MarkHopkins said:

    taffys said:

    Plato_Says said:

    The Remainders are searching for straws to clutch.

    I await a positive case for Remain.

    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    LEAVE slowly gains in polls and now another pro-REMAIN article based on the other side of the globe voting for a flag.

    The telegraph reports dave is telling his MPs he needs time to think...

    Time to think about a slight shift of position on Remain?

    Perhaps. Or to use a suitable moment to step back from the fight, eg "this is my position and my deal, but I'm not taking any further part in the debate - it's up to each side to persuade the people - and I will as PM implement whoever wins".

    If he does that, Leave wins.
  • PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,275
    Scott_P said:

    PeterC said:

    As Project Fear becomes ever more preposterous

    Like this?

    @politicshome: David Davis: EU-Turkey deal increases terrorist access: https://t.co/0vbSVd4X23 (£)
    If you want to. Its a competition as to who can be the most ridiculous. On the whole I think REMAIN is winning that one.
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Charles said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The Ipsos Mori phone poll should be out around lunch time. Contains VI, Gold Standard leadership ratings and a EU Ref poll.

    It'll be a humdinger.

    Please, pretty please can you write the header on the VI/leadership ratings?

    I'm sick to death of the EU
    For Easter Sunday I'm doing a thread comparing George Osborne to Jesus Christ.
    Good luck with that one.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,346
    Scott_P said:

    PeterC said:

    As Project Fear becomes ever more preposterous

    Like this?

    @politicshome: David Davis: EU-Turkey deal increases terrorist access: https://t.co/0vbSVd4X23 (£)
    It does though. Giving Turkey access to Schengen travel arrangements is a security risk. It would allow any ISIS trained terrorist to get into a free travel area only by crossing a single, leaky border. At the moment they have to cross two leaky borders. Extending the European border to Syria would be considered crazy in normal times, doing it with ISIS on the doorstep doesn't bear thinking about.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    MaxPB said:

    An article for those who think the Sanders vote is just going to automatically fall into Hillary's lap:

    http://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/03/yes-donald-trump-is-grotesque-but-i-will-never-vote-for-hillary-clinton/

    Sanders would beat any GOP candidate as he is the insurgent and establishment backers would eventually get behind him. Hillary is asking the insurgent backers to get behind her, it is not going to be easy, especially since the GOP are highly likely to be putting up their own insurgent, anti-establishment type.

    And it doesn't mention the supreme court once.

    I know I am starting to sound like a loon ranting on about this but the status of the Supreme Court was irrevocably altered in the minds of the American public by their decision Bush vs Gore in 2000 - a decision they knew was so bad they made it non-binding for future cases.

    SCOTUS is not an irrelevance or just of interest to political nerds, it is a key, heavily reported on, high profile part of the American political and cultural landscape.

    Come Novemeber the 5th when the choice between getting the 9th Justice nominated is by Hillary or by the Heritage Foundation (who are drawing up the Trump short list) Sanders voters will turn out for Hillary because then it won't be about voting for Hilary (which they have little appetite for) but voting for a seismic shift in the interpretation of the law leftwards (which they are enthusiastic about).
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    I really liked a meme in Supernatural, when the Leviathans were big bad guys.

    Drone "I did my best"

    Boss "Do the best of someone better"
    kle4 said:

    Cityunslicker said:

    Best never try to change anything then. That's the spirit.

    As a great man once said "you tried your best and failed miserably. The lesson is never try."
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,863
    Plato_Says said:

    I disagree, Cameron is a merciless bruiser when it suits him. He's called Flashman for good reason.

    kle4 said:

    Plato_Says said:

    I really get irritated by this. Getting others to agree with you and more importantly trust you on big stuff is precisely what politics is about.

    It's not some 4th rate media studies subject.

    Being PM is all about persuading others, that's why his EU deal is beyond crap. He's the talent to twist arms and didn't use it.

    runnymede said:

    When I see people like Amber Rudd in action, I wonder if we actually voted for a firm of empty-headed PR clowns rather than the Conservative Party.

    He has a talent for it, but I think those he went up against are better at twisting arms than he, quite frankly, if less subtlety in doing so.
    Sure, but I have to assume politicians in other countries are similarly skilled, at least some if them, and they have the weight of the eu machine behind them. I don't think he sought enough, and what he got was crap, and he then tried to pretend it wasn't, but while he could have done better I don't think anyone could have. Gotten a great deal more. That's why I'm for leave, I don't think the other side are capable no matter what to change in any significant way.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,798
    MaxPB said:

    Scott_P said:

    PeterC said:

    As Project Fear becomes ever more preposterous

    Like this?

    @politicshome: David Davis: EU-Turkey deal increases terrorist access: https://t.co/0vbSVd4X23 (£)
    It does though. Giving Turkey access to Schengen travel arrangements is a security risk. It would allow any ISIS trained terrorist to get into a free travel area only by crossing a single, leaky border. At the moment they have to cross two leaky borders. Extending the European border to Syria would be considered crazy in normal times, doing it with ISIS on the doorstep doesn't bear thinking about.
    Turkey isn't getting Schengen style travel arrangements. What Turkey asked for and got is visa free travel, so Turks can visit Europe without the hassle of getting a visa first. They will still have to go through immigration when they land in Europe.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,346
    taffys said:

    Plato_Says said:

    The Remainders are searching for straws to clutch.

    I await a positive case for Remain.

    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    LEAVE slowly gains in polls and now another pro-REMAIN article based on the other side of the globe voting for a flag.

    The telegraph reports dave is telling his MPs he needs time to think...

    Time to think about a slight shift of position on Remain?
    Unlikely, more like taking a step back from actively campaigning for Remain. The PM has already pushed Remain far too hard to u-turn. He has forced too many of his Cabinet ministers to back Remain against their instincts to do it as well.
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    The Independence Day 2 release date is June 24, 2016.
    Must be worth an article on here as an omen of the way the vote will go?
    Innocent face.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,942
    MaxPB said:

    Scott_P said:

    PeterC said:

    As Project Fear becomes ever more preposterous

    Like this?

    @politicshome: David Davis: EU-Turkey deal increases terrorist access: https://t.co/0vbSVd4X23 (£)
    It does though. Giving Turkey access to Schengen travel arrangements is a security risk. It would allow any ISIS trained terrorist to get into a free travel area only by crossing a single, leaky border. At the moment they have to cross two leaky borders. Extending the European border to Syria would be considered crazy in normal times, doing it with ISIS on the doorstep doesn't bear thinking about.
    I thought Turkey was just joining the list of 38 nations that do not require a visa to enter the Schengen zone, joining the ranks of South Korea, Canada, etc.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,346
    Alistair said:

    MaxPB said:

    An article for those who think the Sanders vote is just going to automatically fall into Hillary's lap:

    http://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/03/yes-donald-trump-is-grotesque-but-i-will-never-vote-for-hillary-clinton/

    Sanders would beat any GOP candidate as he is the insurgent and establishment backers would eventually get behind him. Hillary is asking the insurgent backers to get behind her, it is not going to be easy, especially since the GOP are highly likely to be putting up their own insurgent, anti-establishment type.

    And it doesn't mention the supreme court once.

    I know I am starting to sound like a loon ranting on about this but the status of the Supreme Court was irrevocably altered in the minds of the American public by their decision Bush vs Gore in 2000 - a decision they knew was so bad they made it non-binding for future cases.

    SCOTUS is not an irrelevance or just of interest to political nerds, it is a key, heavily reported on, high profile part of the American political and cultural landscape.

    Come Novemeber the 5th when the choice between getting the 9th Justice nominated is by Hillary or by the Heritage Foundation (who are drawing up the Trump short list) Sanders voters will turn out for Hillary because then it won't be about voting for Hilary (which they have little appetite for) but voting for a seismic shift in the interpretation of the law leftwards (which they are enthusiastic about).
    Yes, you are. It is barely going to register on election day as an issue.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,798
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Scott_P said:

    PeterC said:

    As Project Fear becomes ever more preposterous

    Like this?

    @politicshome: David Davis: EU-Turkey deal increases terrorist access: https://t.co/0vbSVd4X23 (£)
    It does though. Giving Turkey access to Schengen travel arrangements is a security risk. It would allow any ISIS trained terrorist to get into a free travel area only by crossing a single, leaky border. At the moment they have to cross two leaky borders. Extending the European border to Syria would be considered crazy in normal times, doing it with ISIS on the doorstep doesn't bear thinking about.
    I thought Turkey was just joining the list of 38 nations that do not require a visa to enter the Schengen zone, joining the ranks of South Korea, Canada, etc.
    Yep but don't let facts get in the way of a EU scare story....
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,942
    Charles said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The Ipsos Mori phone poll should be out around lunch time. Contains VI, Gold Standard leadership ratings and a EU Ref poll.

    It'll be a humdinger.

    Please, pretty please can you write the header on the VI/leadership ratings?

    I'm sick to death of the EU
    Me too.
  • runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    On the other hand, the Germans have said quite recently that they would accept the UK moving to an EEA-style deal, which would mark a major change in the relationship.

    If Cameron had wanted change he could have pursued that. Now imagine coming back and selling a deal to the public that includes -

    1. Minimal disruption to existing trade links
    2. An end to the UK's participation in the CAP and CFP
    3. No more political integration
    4. No more justice and home affairs integration
    5. More wiggle room to reduce immigration
    6. A fiscal dividend of several billion

    'In Europe, but not run by Europe' indeed.

    I think he would have walked a referendum on those terms.

    But he and his friends want more integration. That's the problem.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,270
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Charles said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The Ipsos Mori phone poll should be out around lunch time. Contains VI, Gold Standard leadership ratings and a EU Ref poll.

    It'll be a humdinger.

    Please, pretty please can you write the header on the VI/leadership ratings?

    I'm sick to death of the EU
    For Easter Sunday I'm doing a thread comparing George Osborne to Jesus Christ.
    Would it be in bad taste to say "nailed it"?
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    #JeSuisTurnips
    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    The Independence Day 2 release date is June 24, 2016.
    Must be worth an article on here as an omen of the way the vote will go?
    Innocent face.

  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Mr Memory
    Jill Knight, Baroness Knight of Colingtree, retires from the House of Lords today - she is the oldest living female former MP, age 92
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    MarkHopkins said:

    taffys said:

    Plato_Says said:

    The Remainders are searching for straws to clutch.

    I await a positive case for Remain.

    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    LEAVE slowly gains in polls and now another pro-REMAIN article based on the other side of the globe voting for a flag.

    The telegraph reports dave is telling his MPs he needs time to think...

    Time to think about a slight shift of position on Remain?

    Perhaps. Or to use a suitable moment to step back from the fight, eg "this is my position and my deal, but I'm not taking any further part in the debate - it's up to each side to persuade the people - and I will as PM implement whoever wins".

    Blimey ..... if he gets anywhere near that neutral position, then he really will be seen as hoisting the white flag.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,433
    MarqueeMark said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Charles said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The Ipsos Mori phone poll should be out around lunch time. Contains VI, Gold Standard leadership ratings and a EU Ref poll.

    It'll be a humdinger.

    Please, pretty please can you write the header on the VI/leadership ratings?

    I'm sick to death of the EU
    For Easter Sunday I'm doing a thread comparing George Osborne to Jesus Christ.
    Would it be in bad taste to say "nailed it"?
    Bad taste? Well I do speculate if Jesus was the first Zombie?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,346
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Scott_P said:

    PeterC said:

    As Project Fear becomes ever more preposterous

    Like this?

    @politicshome: David Davis: EU-Turkey deal increases terrorist access: https://t.co/0vbSVd4X23 (£)
    It does though. Giving Turkey access to Schengen travel arrangements is a security risk. It would allow any ISIS trained terrorist to get into a free travel area only by crossing a single, leaky border. At the moment they have to cross two leaky borders. Extending the European border to Syria would be considered crazy in normal times, doing it with ISIS on the doorstep doesn't bear thinking about.
    I thought Turkey was just joining the list of 38 nations that do not require a visa to enter the Schengen zone, joining the ranks of South Korea, Canada, etc.
    Hmm, I thought it was being suggested that Turkey be allowed to have passport free travel with Schengen. If that isn't the case then I take it back.
  • PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,275
    MarkHopkins said:

    taffys said:

    Plato_Says said:

    The Remainders are searching for straws to clutch.

    I await a positive case for Remain.

    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    LEAVE slowly gains in polls and now another pro-REMAIN article based on the other side of the globe voting for a flag.

    The telegraph reports dave is telling his MPs he needs time to think...

    Time to think about a slight shift of position on Remain?

    Perhaps. Or to use a suitable moment to step back from the fight, eg "this is my position and my deal, but I'm not taking any further part in the debate - it's up to each side to persuade the people - and I will as PM implement whoever wins".

    In 1975 Harold Wilson did not step in until polling day was almost upon us. But YES had a clearly identifiable cross party campaign led by Roy Jenkins, Willie Whitelaw Jeremy Thorpe et al. Now it all seems to be much more a case of everyone and his dog putting in their twopenneth worth. If Cameron steps back REMAIN will look leaderless.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    Just think, if the SNP had won their indyref, then it is most likely we would now have PM Miliband giving Scotland it's 'freedom' whilst taking England & Wales even further into the EU.

    Something to be grateful for.

  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Plato_Says said:

    The Remainders are searching for straws to clutch.

    I await a positive case for Remain.

    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    LEAVE slowly gains in polls and now another pro-REMAIN article based on the other side of the globe voting for a flag.

    Fisher's model gave a Tory majority around a 16/1 chance on the eve of the May 2015 election.

    Got to laugh at the cherry picking.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,346
    MarkHopkins said:


    Just think, if the SNP had won their indyref, then it is most likely we would now have PM Miliband giving Scotland it's 'freedom' whilst taking England & Wales even further into the EU.

    Something to be grateful for.

    And allowing 300-400k migrants to come into the UK unchecked by signing up to the EU migrant programme.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    peter_from_putney said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Charles said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The Ipsos Mori phone poll should be out around lunch time. Contains VI, Gold Standard leadership ratings and a EU Ref poll.

    It'll be a humdinger.

    Please, pretty please can you write the header on the VI/leadership ratings?

    I'm sick to death of the EU
    For Easter Sunday I'm doing a thread comparing George Osborne to Jesus Christ.
    Good luck with that one.
    Osborne opposed to stoning those who make mistakes?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,433
    Plato_Says said:

    Mr Memory
    Jill Knight, Baroness Knight of Colingtree, retires from the House of Lords today - she is the oldest living female former MP, age 92

    She was responsible for why people thought the Tory party was the nasty party.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,080
    Mr. Eagles, you're showing your ignorance of Christianity.

    Just check the top piece here (it's only brief), and it'll cover the basics of Jesus/Easter: http://thaddeuswhite.weebly.com/free-stories.html
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited March 2016
    MaxPB said:

    Scott_P said:

    PeterC said:

    As Project Fear becomes ever more preposterous

    Like this?

    @politicshome: David Davis: EU-Turkey deal increases terrorist access: https://t.co/0vbSVd4X23 (£)
    It does though. Giving Turkey access to Schengen travel arrangements is a security risk. It would allow any ISIS trained terrorist to get into a free travel area only by crossing a single, leaky border. At the moment they have to cross two leaky borders. Extending the European border to Syria would be considered crazy in normal times, doing it with ISIS on the doorstep doesn't bear thinking about.
    Just another example of how the EU bureacrats think that the best way to fix a problem is through either more integration or a bigger EU. Never mind that it creates new problems usually worse than those it tries to solve. It does of course create the need for more EU jobs for bureaucrats. Happy Days.

    Some civil servants are just like my loved ones
    They work so hard and they try to be strong
    I'm a lucky guy to live in my building
    They own the buildings to help them along
    (Talking Heads)
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The Ipsos Mori phone poll should be out around lunch time. Contains VI, Gold Standard leadership ratings and a EU Ref poll.

    It'll be a humdinger.

    Please, pretty please can you write the header on the VI/leadership ratings?

    I'm sick to death of the EU
    Me too.
    Sick of threads on the EU as well ;)
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    MaxPB said:

    Alistair said:

    MaxPB said:

    An article for those who think the Sanders vote is just going to automatically fall into Hillary's lap:

    http://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/03/yes-donald-trump-is-grotesque-but-i-will-never-vote-for-hillary-clinton/

    Sanders would beat any GOP candidate as he is the insurgent and establishment backers would eventually get behind him. Hillary is asking the insurgent backers to get behind her, it is not going to be easy, especially since the GOP are highly likely to be putting up their own insurgent, anti-establishment type.

    And it doesn't mention the supreme court once.

    I know I am starting to sound like a loon ranting on about this but the status of the Supreme Court was irrevocably altered in the minds of the American public by their decision Bush vs Gore in 2000 - a decision they knew was so bad they made it non-binding for future cases.

    SCOTUS is not an irrelevance or just of interest to political nerds, it is a key, heavily reported on, high profile part of the American political and cultural landscape.

    Come Novemeber the 5th when the choice between getting the 9th Justice nominated is by Hillary or by the Heritage Foundation (who are drawing up the Trump short list) Sanders voters will turn out for Hillary because then it won't be about voting for Hilary (which they have little appetite for) but voting for a seismic shift in the interpretation of the law leftwards (which they are enthusiastic about).
    Yes, you are. It is barely going to register on election day as an issue.
    Why do you think it is a non issue? Crowds form for it's decisions. It is the final point of focus for every move in the Culturewar.

    Are you making the mistake of trying to draw parallels between it and the UK courts because they couldn't be further apart in terms of public perception. The Republican senators blocking even having confirmation hearings for Garland is going down really badly, two thirds of the public think they should hold confirmation hearings. The general public has easily pollable opinions about the Supreme Court - on basic favoutrable/unfavourable question only 5% have no opinion. this isn't the mark of an institution that is of limited interest to people.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Scott_P said:

    PeterC said:

    As Project Fear becomes ever more preposterous

    Like this?

    @politicshome: David Davis: EU-Turkey deal increases terrorist access: https://t.co/0vbSVd4X23 (£)
    It does though. Giving Turkey access to Schengen travel arrangements is a security risk. It would allow any ISIS trained terrorist to get into a free travel area only by crossing a single, leaky border. At the moment they have to cross two leaky borders. Extending the European border to Syria would be considered crazy in normal times, doing it with ISIS on the doorstep doesn't bear thinking about.
    I thought Turkey was just joining the list of 38 nations that do not require a visa to enter the Schengen zone, joining the ranks of South Korea, Canada, etc.
    Hmm, I thought it was being suggested that Turkey be allowed to have passport free travel with Schengen. If that isn't the case then I take it back.
    No visa-free travel. Like we have visa-free travel with Canada, you still need your passport and you still need to go through border control procedures.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006
    Plato_Says said:

    After feeling Remain would win handsomely, the desperate claims of their supporters makes me wonder.

    According to What UK Thinks, Leave are ahead in rolling polls, and Leave has much better GOTV demographics.

    Too many Remainers resemble Lib Dems Winning Here mindsets.

    Would recommend taking a few deep breaths. The vote is 3 months away, Labour, Lib Dems, Greens, SNP have barely even begun campaigning yet and most people (other than anoraks like us) have barely given it a second thought. Getting giddy about Leave being slightly ahead in the polls at this stage is pointless.

    What the study points out is that history suggests that as referendums draw closer the status quo picks up votes and it continues right through polling day as many undecideds decide not to take the risk at the last moment. Now if you ave some stats to argue against that feel free because I am not seeing any yet.



  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,663
    Interestingly a Remain/Hillary Clinton double is just about Evens.
This discussion has been closed.