I've just put £10 on Osborne being out before the end of March, 25-1 with Ladbrokes. If he's going, he's going quickly I reckon making it a better bet than the 7-4/2-1 out by year end.
Vote of confidence from Dave sounds ominous.
Not a bad bet. One way to stabilise the Government would to promote Gove to Chancellor with tacit acceptance that Cameronism continues to rule but the Cameron/Osborne axis is no more and that Remain/Leave co-run the party.
However, I'd make it a 12/1 shot. It'd drive a coach & horses through the strategy of Project Fear by taking away its establishment economic angle and I think Cameron cares more about securing Remain (and his legacy accordingly) that making concessions to hold his party together.
I suspect it’s one of these things which has been used for ages and has only last year swum into WADA’s ken.
It has, because they found it in a huge percentage of Russian athlete samples. It has also been used by the Russian military for a long time for boosting endurance.
It isn't just the Russians that have been taking this route of "misusing" drugs for purposes they weren't originally designed.
Quite; salbutamol used by asthmatics world wide has also been implicated. It’s one of those which has to be reported if prescribed.
The number of distant runners with thyroid problem is amazing...I am sure it is a total coincidence that the use of one of the main drugs for that complaint causes weight lose in non-sufferers.
Having full confidence on Liam Fox was a bold one, I grant you that.
When Dave says he has full confidence in his ministers I'm not sure he actually does. I think it's code for "resign so we can both save face" rather than any actual real confidence...
Unbelievable. Please explain how that will happen. Magic Money Tree of the EU?
Oh, it's obvious - the removal of the uncertainty. This really isn't terribly hard, is it?
Is that what the OBR said when they cut the rate of growth assumptions for the next few years? The answer is no. So do you know better than the OBR?
The OBR forecasts are explicitly based on Government policy: i.e. they assume Remain.
Mr Nabavi is, as usual, mistaken.
I wasn't talking about the assumptions of the OBR forecasts, as anyone who can read (a rapidly falling proportion of PBers, it seems) should be able to tell. I was talking about the real-life economic effects of the referendum and a possible Remain result.
Why did Cameron announce he was going. He made those comments in the election campaign but they were easy enough to get out of. He could just say wait and see and he'll let people know closer to the time. No reason why he couldn't wriggle out of it.
Yes, he could have finessed his way out of the original comments. At the time I thought the 'full term' pledge was a tactic to head off a leadership challenge immediately following what everyone expected to be another hung parliament.
He had no reason to remake the same pledge more emphatically after the election.
Having full confidence on Liam Fox was a bold one, I grant you that.
When Dave says he has full confidence in his ministers I'm not sure he actually does. I think it's code for "resign so we can both save face" rather than any actual real confidence...
The Liam Fox saga initially confused the heck out of me. I woke up pond day to the papers being full of "Fox Must Go" headlines but none of them explained why in any detail and I thought the whole thing was a storm in a tea cup. Then I finally found an article that explained in detail what had happened and I was like "Holy £%&# he has to resign yesterday!"
I've just put £10 on Osborne being out before the end of March, 25-1 with Ladbrokes. If he's going, he's going quickly I reckon making it a better bet than the 7-4/2-1 out by year end.
Vote of confidence from Dave sounds ominous.
Not a bad bet. One way to stabilise the Government would to promote Gove to Chancellor with tacit acceptance that Cameronism continues to rule but the Cameron/Osborne axis is no more and that Remain/Leave co-run the party.
However, I'd make it a 12/1 shot. It'd drive a coach & horses through the strategy of Project Fear by taking away its establishment economic angle and I think Cameron cares more about securing Remain (and his legacy accordingly) that making concessions to hold his party together.
If he goes though, doesn't Cameron have to move him to another of the great offices of state, which means shifting Hammond or May? Surely easier to try and tough it out.
I've just put £10 on Osborne being out before the end of March, 25-1 with Ladbrokes. If he's going, he's going quickly I reckon making it a better bet than the 7-4/2-1 out by year end.
Vote of confidence from Dave sounds ominous.
Not a bad bet. One way to stabilise the Government would to promote Gove to Chancellor with tacit acceptance that Cameronism continues to rule but the Cameron/Osborne axis is no more and that Remain/Leave co-run the party.
However, I'd make it a 12/1 shot. It'd drive a coach & horses through the strategy of Project Fear by taking away its establishment economic angle and I think Cameron cares more about securing Remain (and his legacy accordingly) that making concessions to hold his party together.
If he goes though, doesn't Cameron have to move him to another of the great offices of state, which means shifting Hammond or May? Surely easier to try and tough it out.
Hammond to CoE would be logical move. Something Tories should have done ages ago.
Unbelievable. Please explain how that will happen. Magic Money Tree of the EU?
Oh, it's obvious - the removal of the uncertainty. This really isn't terribly hard, is it?
Is that what the OBR said when they cut the rate of growth assumptions for the next few years? The answer is no. So do you know better than the OBR?
The OBR forecasts are explicitly based on Government policy: i.e. they assume Remain.
Mr Nabavi is, as usual, mistaken.
I wasn't talking about the assumptions of the OBR forecasts, as anyone who can read (a rapidly falling proportion of PBers, it seems) should be able to tell. I was talking about the real-life economic effects of the referendum and a possible Remain result.
OK. So it was your own economic forecast, based on nothing at all, in complete contradiction of the OBR. The OBR, is of course, something you praise downthread as a significant reform.
No plan to fix 4 bn blackhole. This govt is a laughing stock!
It's worth bearing in mind that £4 billion is about 0.2% of GDP, we have bigger quarterly revisions than that. Nobody has a clue really where the economy will be in a few years time.
Also the blackhole is in the future, out to 2020, so waiting until the Autumn statement to get it right rather than rushing makes a fair bit of sense.
In the grand scheme of things the amount of this non-cut, spending would still rise but more slowly, isn't the issue. It's Osborne reducing welfare spending whilst cutting things like CGT that is controversial.
OK. So it was your own economic forecast, based on nothing at all, in complete contradiction of the OBR. The OBR, is of course, something you praise downthread as a significant reform.
Based on 'nothing at all', other than many years of experience, and backed up by the IMF, the Bank of England, almost every international bank, the vast majority of reputable economists, and, most importantly, common sense.
And of course it's not 'in contradiction' of the OBR. The OBR does what it does, and you have to understand the uses and limitations of their models.
I am not even sure there is any evidence that he was being a "bloody nuisance" at the moment, except in as far as he attempted to deliver what he has always said he was going to deliver, got stiffed by the treasury and then tried to stop Camborne's attempt to pull the wool over the voters eyes. Had they funded his efforts at DWP properly, and let him get on with his job I rather doubt anyone would have heard a peep from him.
An alternative explanation is he was really crap at the job.
I guess if the rumoured DWP papers are released we may find out.
Sorry Scott, that just doesn't wash, even I don't believe that. He was at the DWP from GE2010 if he was that crap Dave would have got rid of him before now.. IDS is a twat for resigning, but he is now being smeared for doing so.
IIRC Cameron did try to shuffle him put to a department where he'd do less damage, but he made a credible threat to throw his toys out of the pram. Of course he should have fired him as his incompetence literally killed people, but politically it's easy to understand why he didn't.
Is there some evidence for that libel ?
If you're asking for details of the people killed by IDS's incompetence, most will never be known, but there are some names in this piece:
TheScreamingEagles, key is that the polls are moving in Zac's favour. With the change in voter registration, have the polls adjusted for fewer registered young and BME voters in London?
This one has - it asks about certainty to vote (and as expected, the elderly are vastly more certain than the young and the white voters somewhat more certain than the BME voters) and weights according to "likelihood to vote" and the ComRes turnout model (which I think has been adjusted post-2015). Pure preference in the final ballot regardless of certainty is not shown.
Of course, some respondents may think they're registered when they're not, though I'd think this group will be dominated by people who don't vote, so the impact will be fairly small. It's quite a good poll for Zac, but shouldn't be further adjusted for likelihood to vote as that would double-count.
Worth making the point too that the online national Comres polls have been much more favourable for the Tories than other pollsters since May 2015.
Comments
However, I'd make it a 12/1 shot. It'd drive a coach & horses through the strategy of Project Fear by taking away its establishment economic angle and I think Cameron cares more about securing Remain (and his legacy accordingly) that making concessions to hold his party together.
Nothing happens in politics, till it does. And then things tend to unravel very very quickly...
One thing that is certain is that the forecasts for the EU are for very very low growth.
Mr Nabavi is, as usual, mistaken.
He had no reason to remake the same pledge more emphatically after the election.
Liam Fox - 3 days
Grant Shapps - 1/2 a day
Will be checking on others.
My nephew (who is 20) has a girlfriend who is still just 19.
She has added me on Facebook and seemingly constantly posts selfies of herself, in various poses and pouts.
On the (fewer) occasions when she has him in them too she accompanies them with exceptionally corny updates.
I tried gently taking the piss once or twice, but engage she did not.
Also the blackhole is in the future, out to 2020, so waiting until the Autumn statement to get it right rather than rushing makes a fair bit of sense.
In the grand scheme of things the amount of this non-cut, spending would still rise but more slowly, isn't the issue. It's Osborne reducing welfare spending whilst cutting things like CGT that is controversial.
NEW THREAD NEW THREAD
And of course it's not 'in contradiction' of the OBR. The OBR does what it does, and you have to understand the uses and limitations of their models.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/mar/20/ids-victorian-morality-reforming-zeal-gross-incompetence