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  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,714

    I'd go May as PM and Gove as Chancellor.

    Gove could be a very great Chancellor indeed, he could be the man to make the really deep reforms to address the long-standing absurdities which have grown up over the years - for example, the ridiculous jumps in marginal tax rates at various points on the income scale, and the daft feature of having both NI and income tax.

    However, any such reform would provoke howls of anguish from those who lose out, and it's something you'd really need to do early in a parliamentary term after winning a big majority. I'm not sure Gove would be as good in a politically very constrained scenario.

    LOL these would be the reforms you've spent years telling me Osborne has already made ?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Wanderer said:

    Alistair said:

    Wanderer said:

    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    chestnut said:

    Pulpstar said:

    One thing this will signal is the beginning of the end for triple lock etc.

    Mathematically that has to happen at some point, politically it's tricky - especially for Tories, but IDS (And Corbyn) may have accelerated that calculation.

    The Tories are, to all intents and purposes, taking off working age claimants to give to pensioner ones.

    11% of pensioner households are now classified by ONS as millionaire households.
    Personally I'd cut both.
    While the baby boomers continue to make up the rump of those people who vote pensions and pensioner benefits will not be touched.

    The last 60 years has seen a wealth transfer from the young to the old that precisely follows the ageing of the baby boomers.
    You mean Generation X is screwed? :(
    Gen X (assuming you go with the definition that puts it finishing at 1979) is fine-ish, they are going to start inheriting the vastly expensive properties their baby boomer parents have and they still managed to get the very coat tails of the baby-boomer privileges like free University education so that they started their working lives with minimal debt.

    It is generation Y that is screwed.
    Well **** Generation Y. What did they do in the war?
    About as much as the baby boomers.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Jennifer Rankin
    The first of the 4,000 border guards, asylum experts and police being sent to Greek islands expected to be deployed on 28 March.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    edited March 2016


    I should stress that Francis, Charles, Roger, and the other characters with the same names as PBers aren't based on PB members.

    "All characters and events in this show—even those based on real people—are entirely fictional. All celebrity voices are impersonated.....poorly." - South Park
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,663
    @Alastairmeeks How does it feel to be on the same side as Baroness Altmann :) ?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822

    LOL these would be the reforms you've spent years telling me Osborne has already made ?

    No, I've never said that. Osborne has made some very important structural reforms, most notably the creation of the OBR, and also done some good stuff on tax avoidance and corporate taxation. But none of those were the kind of thing you need a big majority to force through.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    And just in case people think I am making up the whole wealth transfer thing

    Image and video hosting by TinyPic
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,253

    Whatever the merits of IDS case there have been some wonderful sketches:

    “There were three of us in this marriage,” he said, fighting back the tears. “Me, the little people of this country and the Treasury.” Marr looked a little taken aback by this unexpectedly intimate Princess IDS moment. This wasn’t an incarnation of the former work and pensions secretary with which he was familiar, and he was understandably confused; not to say sceptical, pointing out that he had always seemed quite happy to shaft the poorest and most vulnerable members of society for the past six years and it was asking a lot of the public to believe that secretly he had always been on their side.

    The princess tilted her his head a little further to one side, willing a tear to form in his eye and slide gently down his cheek. His blinks became more urgent, but moisture came there none.


    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/mar/20/princess-iain-duncan-smith-eyelids-three-marriage-shaft-poor
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Pulpstar said:

    @Alastairmeeks How does it feel to be on the same side as Baroness Altmann :) ?

    I am very consciously not commenting on Baroness Altmann's intervention. :)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,663
    @Alistair That'll be rectified just as anyone born after about 1980 becomes a pensioner :p
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    geoffw said:

    Pulpstar said:

    One thing this will signal is the beginning of the end for triple lock etc.

    Mathematically that has to happen at some point, politically it's tricky - especially for Tories, but IDS (And Corbyn) may have accelerated that calculation.

    It is a brazen bribe to the people who vote. Along with bus passes, prescriptions and tv licences.
    Up to 2014 the "triple lock" was worthless and in fact the new policy was producing lower increases in the basic state pension than would have happened if Osborne had not replaced the inflation link to RPI with the link to CPI. The link to average earnings would have been valuable in a period of growth, but had failed to match CPI over a prolonged period of austerity, as I suspect the designers of the triple lock foresaw and hence felt the policy to be affordable. So it's only the 2.5% floor that has proved of value over the past two years, and only to those on the basic rate, as pension credits have not been spared the cuts in mean tested benefits.

    While the 2.5% floor in the triple lock allowed the government to avoid the political embarrassment of Gordon Brown's long remembered 75p pension increase, the substance of the latter was more than reversed the following year when Brown reversed course through an above-inflation £5 increase for single pensioners in 2001. In the meantime, Brown was bringing in other changes - the winter fuel allowance boost and the pension credit guarantee, which boosted the incomes of pensioners on low and middle incomes. The upshot was that by 2010, reversing a historic trend, pensioners were no more likely to find themselves in poverty than the population in general.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,080
    Kindle update: I think mine's all done. Took 2-3 hours, for those doing likewise.

    For those with an e-reader who missed it earlier, here's the update info:
    https://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/help/customer/display.html?nodeId=201994710

    It needs doing today.
  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474

    I'd go May as PM and Gove as Chancellor.

    Gove could be a very great Chancellor indeed, he could be the man to make the really deep reforms to address the long-standing absurdities which have grown up over the years - for example, the ridiculous jumps in marginal tax rates at various points on the income scale, and the daft feature of having both NI and income tax.

    However, any such reform would provoke howls of anguish from those who lose out, and it's something you'd really need to do early in a parliamentary term after winning a big majority. I'm not sure Gove would be as good in a politically very constrained scenario.
    Is this a spoof post from Nabavi?

    The present Chancellor has had years to do all these things himself. However, since Osborne's actually succeeded in making the tax code more complicated and unwieldy, and introduced more absurdities in his quest to out do Brown, he's probably not the best person to reform it.

    Time for a change.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edited March 2016
    Scott_P said:

    Golly, collective responsibility and loyalty is now inconvenient to your arguments?

    Err, no

    The suggestion made to me was that people disclaimed the manifesto they stood on.

    I was querying whether IDS was one such, to which the answer appears to be no
    Bollocks I did. I said he may have disagreed with aspects of the manifesto. Under collective responsibility he correctly kept his mouth shut while in the job, when he resigned he was clear to speak his mind.

    I am bored of debating you Scott&Paste, you half read people's responses and then try and score cheap points off what you wanted them to have said, when you are not too busy spamming tweets. Life is way too short, I hope you have a good one.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    watford30 said:

    Is this a spoof post from Nabavi?

    The present Chancellor has had years to do all these things himself. However, since Osborne's actually succeeded in making the tax code more complicated and unwieldy, and introduced more absurdities in his quest to out do Brown, he's probably not the best person to reform it.

    Time for a change.

    I don't think you've understood what I wrote.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,714

    LOL these would be the reforms you've spent years telling me Osborne has already made ?

    No, I've never said that. Osborne has made some very important structural reforms, most notably the creation of the OBR, and also done some good stuff on tax avoidance and corporate taxation. But none of those were the kind of thing you need a big majority to force through.
    Richard the man could shag a class of school children on prime time TV while injecting himself with crystal meth and you'd claim it was a combined biology and chemistry lesson.

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,756

    Sean_F said:

    It's not fair at all.

    That's an incredibly bias write up of his resignation.

    You're normally much more objective than this.
    The fallacy that people you don't like must have base motives for their actions.
    It's more that the explanation given by Iain Duncan Smith is utterly unconvincing. We are being asked to believe that he has been held hostage in a Cabinet for six years delivering benefits cuts that he hated, standing only last year on a manifesto pledged to deliver further cuts and that he is profoundly opposed to the entire thrust of the government two days after a budget where he had previously signed off cuts that in any case were being abandoned before he resigned. Like the Walrus, he holds his pocket-handkerchief before his streaming eyes.

    It's utterly implausible.

    There is a simpler explanation: he hates David Cameron and in particular George Osborne, and he is looking to sabotage them.
    Or that he thought it a step too far.

    Personally, I sympathise more with the government than with IDS over this. But, I doubt if he's motivated by social jealousy as the author of the article claims.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,367
    Alastair,

    We had it all ... long summer days as a child spent exploring on our own, tuberculosis, polio, no central heating or carpets, no holidays, no electronics apart from a radio. a nice council house, working on the land during all the school holidays, no trigger warnings, no safe spaces, no censorship, and of course, a much reduced life-expectancy, and no long school holidays if we had a few flakes of snow.

    A mixed bag, I would have thought
  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474

    watford30 said:

    Is this a spoof post from Nabavi?

    The present Chancellor has had years to do all these things himself. However, since Osborne's actually succeeded in making the tax code more complicated and unwieldy, and introduced more absurdities in his quest to out do Brown, he's probably not the best person to reform it.

    Time for a change.

    I don't think you've understood what I wrote.
    I understand exactly what you wrote.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    watford30 said:

    watford30 said:

    Is this a spoof post from Nabavi?

    The present Chancellor has had years to do all these things himself. However, since Osborne's actually succeeded in making the tax code more complicated and unwieldy, and introduced more absurdities in his quest to out do Brown, he's probably not the best person to reform it.

    Time for a change.

    I don't think you've understood what I wrote.
    I understand exactly what you wrote.
    Apparently not, because you don't seem to have noticed the point about needing a large majority to make unpopular reforms.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Sean_F said:

    Or that he thought it a step too far.

    He didn't think it a step too far when he stood on the manifesto at the election. Or when signing off the departmental budget. Or when the budget was delivered.

    It was only "a step too far" after an offer to reverse it...

    Aye, right.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,253
    edited March 2016

    Kindle update: I think mine's all done. Took 2-3 hours, for those doing likewise.

    For those with an e-reader who missed it earlier, here's the update info:
    https://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/help/customer/display.html?nodeId=201994710

    It needs doing today.

    Any idea what happens if you don't do it? I usually use my iPad now, and don't have access to my (ancient) Kindle - the Amazon instructions I found just said you'd have to 'update manually' without specifying how......

    Edit - found it:

    https://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/help/customer/display.html?nodeId=201177300
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,080
    Mr. Thompson, my two currently available books are fantasy, under the name Thaddeus White:
    http://www.amazon.co.uk/Thaddeus-White/e/B008C6RU98/

    They're 'serious', although they do have moments of levity (I find books without any humour as odd as books without fear).

    On 31 March I have a politically incorrect fantasy-comedy entitled The Adventures of Sir Edric coming out.

    I've more or less finished another book in the Bane of Souls/Journey to Altmortis world, but because it's part of a trilogy the release is a little way off. Likewise, I've essentially finished the next Sir Edric book (may fiddle with the start a bit).

    Mr. Urquhart, I was tempted to release the (currently unavailable, because it's part of the forthcoming comedy) first edition of Sir Edric's Temple with the preface: This is a work of fiction. Any similarity to people or events in the real world are purely coincidental. Except for Colin, obviously.

    Shadow Hearts: Covenant [videogame] had that standard disclaimer, and then featured Tsar Nicholas II, Princess Anastasia and Rasputin. Hmm.
  • runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    'Osborne has made some very important structural reforms, most notably the creation of the OBR'

    Rubbish. It is precisely in the area of structural reforms where Osborne has failed to make any significant progress. There is nothing in his record to remotely compare with that of e.g. Geoffrey Howe and Nigel Lawson.

    And if anything the situation has got worse over time, with less and less good long-term work and more and more short-term gimcrackery and hyper-political tinkering.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @bbclaurak: Osborne to front it up in Commons tomorrow, he will wind up the Budget debate
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Sadie Smith
    The naming of HMS Boaty McBoatface reminded me of this experiment in letting the kids have a say. https://t.co/pa05DTOkDZ
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited March 2016

    Richard the man could shag a class of school children on prime time TV while injecting himself with crystal meth and you'd claim it was a combined biology and chemistry lesson.

    I guess that would be a cross-discipline biology, chemistry and moral philosophy lesson.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,080
    Miss Vance, my understanding is you could download software to your computer, then use a USB cable to transfer it to the Kindle.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,663

    Sadie Smith
    The naming of HMS Boaty McBoatface reminded me of this experiment in letting the kids have a say. https://t.co/pa05DTOkDZ

    Some nice light relief on Twitter after reading about PC Dave Phillips case.

    Not guilty murder; 10-2 for manslaughter btw.
  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    edited March 2016

    watford30 said:

    watford30 said:

    Is this a spoof post from Nabavi?

    The present Chancellor has had years to do all these things himself. However, since Osborne's actually succeeded in making the tax code more complicated and unwieldy, and introduced more absurdities in his quest to out do Brown, he's probably not the best person to reform it.

    Time for a change.

    I don't think you've understood what I wrote.
    I understand exactly what you wrote.
    Apparently not, because you don't seem to have noticed the point about needing a large majority to make unpopular reforms.
    That just reads like an excuse for your precious Osborne.

    Face it. He's tinkered and tampered and made things far, far more complicated than they ever were, and it's got bugger all to do with the size of any 'majority'.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,253

    Miss Vance, my understanding is you could download software to your computer, then use a USB cable to transfer it to the Kindle.

    Thank you - yes - I finally found it - so not a major problem......
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Guido
    Champagne-stocked wine cellar of @PeoplesMomentum chief @jonlansman: https://t.co/oZzmC8QOFt https://t.co/PUJVfE7vC1
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,262
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    It's not fair at all.

    That's an incredibly bias write up of his resignation.

    You're normally much more objective than this.
    The fallacy that people you don't like must have base motives for their actions.
    It's more that the explanation given by Iain Duncan Smith is utterly unconvincing. We are being asked to believe that he has been held hostage in a Cabinet for six years delivering benefits cuts that he hated, standing only last year on a manifesto pledged to deliver further cuts and that he is profoundly opposed to the entire thrust of the government two days after a budget where he had previously signed off cuts that in any case were being abandoned before he resigned. Like the Walrus, he holds his pocket-handkerchief before his streaming eyes.

    It's utterly implausible.

    There is a simpler explanation: he hates David Cameron and in particular George Osborne, and he is looking to sabotage them.
    Or that he thought it a step too far.

    Personally, I sympathise more with the government than with IDS over this. But, I doubt if he's motivated by social jealousy as the author of the article claims.
    I agree with you, Sean.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,663
    So will Clayton Williams be getting 35 years or an actual life sentence.

    #AboutasmuchhopeascorbynbecomingPM
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    runnymede said:

    'Osborne has made some very important structural reforms, most notably the creation of the OBR'

    Rubbish. It is precisely in the area of structural reforms where Osborne has failed to make any significant progress. There is nothing in his record to remotely compare with that of e.g. Geoffrey Howe and Nigel Lawson.

    And if anything the situation has got worse over time, with less and less good long-term work and more and more short-term gimcrackery and hyper-political tinkering.

    As I said, he has made some very important structural reforms, such as those I listed.

    I agree he hasn't reformed the tax system in the way Lawson did, and I also agree that he has fiddled too much with detail.

    I was actually talking about Michael Gove, who as I said might have the potential to be a great reforming Chancellor. As I said, that is very hard to do when you haven't got a good majority.

    Unfortunately, many people reading my posts seem to be incapable of keeping more than one of my points in their heads at the same time.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    I rarely agree with Montie, here I do

    Me for @TheTimes: The letter, the letter, the letter, the letter. That is the story https://t.co/8N7waRddgK https://t.co/iELsbBIKuI
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838

    Sadie Smith
    The naming of HMS Boaty McBoatface reminded me of this experiment in letting the kids have a say. https://t.co/pa05DTOkDZ

    https://xkcd.com/1253/
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    edited March 2016
    Four Russian athletes have tested positive for the banned drug meldonium.

    At least 16 Russian sportspeople, including tennis player Maria Sharapova, have tested positive for the substance since it was banned by the World Anti-Doping Agency on 1 January.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/athletics/35860851

    It seems dodgy tickers are very very common problem among elite Russian athletes..
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554

    Guido
    Champagne-stocked wine cellar of @PeoplesMomentum chief @jonlansman: https://t.co/oZzmC8QOFt https://t.co/PUJVfE7vC1

    Wouldn't surprise me if he sits in Che Guevara themed PJ's puffing of a Cuban drinking £500 a bottle plonk out of the wine cellar.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,001

    Sean_F said:

    It's not fair at all.

    That's an incredibly bias write up of his resignation.

    You're normally much more objective than this.
    The fallacy that people you don't like must have base motives for their actions.
    It's more that the explanation given by Iain Duncan Smith is utterly unconvincing. We are being asked to believe that he has been held hostage in a Cabinet for six years delivering benefits cuts that he hated, standing only last year on a manifesto pledged to deliver further cuts and that he is profoundly opposed to the entire thrust of the government two days after a budget where he had previously signed off cuts that in any case were being abandoned before he resigned. Like the Walrus, he holds his pocket-handkerchief before his streaming eyes.

    It's utterly implausible.

    There is a simpler explanation: he hates David Cameron and in particular George Osborne, and he is looking to sabotage them.
    But why does he hate them? That you can't answer. According to sources close to IDS (I know) the final straw was when the Treasury decided to dump on him after the fallout began.

    I don't know who to believe (as usual Andrew Rawnsley seems fairly credible) but I wonder if your tribal metropolitanism is blinding you to side with the Cameroons.
  • runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    'As I said, that is very hard to do when you haven't got a good majority.'

    zzzzzzzzzzz back to the usual excuses.

  • jayfdeejayfdee Posts: 618

    Mr. Indigo, well, quite. It's a cosy consensus for the political class, at odds with the majority of the public.

    Miss Plato, huzzah!

    Read Bane of Souls first. It's the one I wrote first and although the stories are stand-alone, they have some overlapping characters (only one has a major role in both). Journey of Altmortis is both my best-rated and least-read book [I probably cocked up the cover request].

    I should stress that Francis, Charles, Roger, and the other characters with the same names as PBers aren't based on PB members.

    Mr. Urquhart, Cameron's utterly feeble on the EU.

    Just downloaded both books,I have a long trip coming up, so thought I would stock up a few books. My Kindle is a new version so no update needed.
    Probably will get something from S K Tremayne as well just to show equal support.
  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    runnymede said:

    'As I said, that is very hard to do when you haven't got a good majority.'

    zzzzzzzzzzz back to the usual excuses.

    'Without a 100 seat majority, Osborne's hands are tied so he can only make the Tax Code more, rather than less complicated'. Falls into coma.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    Mr. Meeks, whereas you're taking the side of Cameron/Osborne, regardless of how arrogant and complacent they've been, just because they're Remainers? :p

    Not at all.

    It's a simple observation that for Leavers, Leaving is far more important than government coherence. For those of us who are not utterly obsessed by the subject, government coherence is far more important than the referendum.
    It is possible to [intend to] vote Leave and yet not be obsessed with Leaving.
    Well, yes - but that particular crescent of the Venn diagram of political wonks is sparsely populated.
    'Twas always thus. I am a Tory4AV, after all.
  • runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    quite
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,567

    Guido
    Champagne-stocked wine cellar of @PeoplesMomentum chief @jonlansman: https://t.co/oZzmC8QOFt https://t.co/PUJVfE7vC1

    Wouldn't surprise me if he sits in Che Guevara themed PJ's puffing of a Cuban drinking £500 a bottle plonk out of the wine cellar.
    Nothing's too good for the working class.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Craig Woodhouse
    No plan to plug £4bn black hole until autumn statement. What price magical growth in the economy fixing it?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,080
    Mr. Jayfdee, huzzah, and thanks :)

    I should stress that Sir Edric is a completely different animal to the Bane of Souls/Journey to Altmortis books. So, if you like the latter you should still check the Sir Edric sample before buying, and if you dislike the latter you may nevertheless enjoy Sir Edric.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    Sean_F said:

    It's not fair at all.

    That's an incredibly bias write up of his resignation.

    You're normally much more objective than this.
    The fallacy that people you don't like must have base motives for their actions.
    It's more that the explanation given by Iain Duncan Smith is utterly unconvincing. We are being asked to believe that he has been held hostage in a Cabinet for six years delivering benefits cuts that he hated, standing only last year on a manifesto pledged to deliver further cuts and that he is profoundly opposed to the entire thrust of the government two days after a budget where he had previously signed off cuts that in any case were being abandoned before he resigned. Like the Walrus, he holds his pocket-handkerchief before his streaming eyes.

    It's utterly implausible.

    There is a simpler explanation: he hates David Cameron and in particular George Osborne, and he is looking to sabotage them.
    But why does he hate them? That you can't answer. According to sources close to IDS (I know) the final straw was when the Treasury decided to dump on him after the fallout began.

    I don't know who to believe (as usual Andrew Rawnsley seems fairly credible) but I wonder if your tribal metropolitanism is blinding you to side with the Cameroons.
    Anti_Frank (Meek, which rhymes with Reek) is a well known Cameroon. I do believe that you are right and it's the final straw when Cammo and Osbo ordered the IDS's to knife his own WP department one more time. He simply said NO, and resigned.
  • Punters liked my Hancock as next Tory leader piece. Plus I also tipped him last year as next Chancellor. Also down to 20/1 from 80/1 as next Tory leader.

    Mike

    Matthew Hancock's Ladbrokes odds on becoming next Chancellor move from 16/1 to 8/1 following spate of bets
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Wanderer said:

    I'd go May as PM and Gove as Chancellor.

    Pulpstar said:

    I still hope Gove goes for it. Osborne pulling out could help Gove as despite being on opposite sides of the EU debate I do believe they're friends and political allies. If the writing is on the wall that a Leaver will get it from the members then why not have Osborne and his allies unite in a spirit of reconciliation and have Gove as that Leaver?

    Gove vs May sets it up nicely with two sensible candidates, one from each side of the leave/remain divide; and locks out Boris.
    That would be a very interesting contest.
    That combination would be very electable, I think.

    Gove's negatives are much less of an issue if he's Chancellor rather than PM. Chancellors are almost unpopular regardless (a point one should keep in mind when thinking about Osborne - who was the last popular Chancellor? - easy, Clarke - and before that?)
    Brown was popular when he was maxing out the credit card. It's easier to be popular while being a giveaway Chancellor than an austere one.
    I'm afraid it's a sad fact that as of next year we will have had 20 years of political chancellors and zero of reformers. It's one of the reasons we're struggling.
    I view most "reformers" in the same light as "political" Chancellors. We don't need endless revolution from HMRC, we need the government to step out of the way as much as possible and let us get on with our lives.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited March 2016

    Craig Woodhouse
    No plan to plug £4bn black hole until autumn statement. What price magical growth in the economy fixing it?

    If there's a Remain result it will fix itself, and if there's a Leave result it's academic anyway, because we'll have much bigger black holes to fill.

    As a general observation, Osborne and many others pay too much attention to changes in forecasts several years ahead. They are very uncertain anyway, so should be used as a very rough guide, not as a basis for evaluating policies which cost or bring in just a few billion.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    Punters liked my Hancock as next Tory leader piece. Plus I also tipped him last year as next Chancellor. Also down to 20/1 from 80/1 as next Tory leader.

    Mike

    Matthew Hancock's Ladbrokes odds on becoming next Chancellor move from 16/1 to 8/1 following spate of bets

    HWNBNC
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,663

    Punters liked my Hancock as next Tory leader piece. Plus I also tipped him last year as next Chancellor. Also down to 20/1 from 80/1 as next Tory leader.

    Mike

    Matthew Hancock's Ladbrokes odds on becoming next Chancellor move from 16/1 to 8/1 following spate of bets

    Punters also liked Marco Rubio's chances.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,433
    edited March 2016
    Pulpstar said:

    Punters liked my Hancock as next Tory leader piece. Plus I also tipped him last year as next Chancellor. Also down to 20/1 from 80/1 as next Tory leader.

    Mike

    Matthew Hancock's Ladbrokes odds on becoming next Chancellor move from 16/1 to 8/1 following spate of bets

    Punters also liked Marco Rubio's chances.
    If you ignore my unprofitable tips, all my tips are brilliantly profitable, just saying :lol:
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Sean_F said:

    It's not fair at all.

    That's an incredibly bias write up of his resignation.

    You're normally much more objective than this.
    The fallacy that people you don't like must have base motives for their actions.
    It's more that the explanation given by Iain Duncan Smith is utterly unconvincing. We are being asked to believe that he has been held hostage in a Cabinet for six years delivering benefits cuts that he hated, standing only last year on a manifesto pledged to deliver further cuts and that he is profoundly opposed to the entire thrust of the government two days after a budget where he had previously signed off cuts that in any case were being abandoned before he resigned. Like the Walrus, he holds his pocket-handkerchief before his streaming eyes.

    It's utterly implausible.

    There is a simpler explanation: he hates David Cameron and in particular George Osborne, and he is looking to sabotage them.
    But why does he hate them? That you can't answer. According to sources close to IDS (I know) the final straw was when the Treasury decided to dump on him after the fallout began.

    I don't know who to believe (as usual Andrew Rawnsley seems fairly credible) but I wonder if your tribal metropolitanism is blinding you to side with the Cameroons.
    Oh I'm not particularly sympathetic towards George Osborne and David Cameron on this either. I have the impression that they personally dislike Iain Duncan Smith and I doubt either would particularly trouble to hide their feelings.

    My theory as to why they hate each other? They're polar opposites in personality, class and politics. Such relationships would always be put under severe strain. With the bonds of loyalty frayed by the referendum, it's completely unsurprising to see them torn asunder by an unrelated strain. It doesn't mean we have to believe the crocodile tears, especially when the stated rationale is so tissue thin.

    As for the rest, this is what happens when thieves fall out.
  • Wanderer said:

    I'd go May as PM and Gove as Chancellor.

    Pulpstar said:

    I still hope Gove goes for it. Osborne pulling out could help Gove as despite being on opposite sides of the EU debate I do believe they're friends and political allies. If the writing is on the wall that a Leaver will get it from the members then why not have Osborne and his allies unite in a spirit of reconciliation and have Gove as that Leaver?

    Gove vs May sets it up nicely with two sensible candidates, one from each side of the leave/remain divide; and locks out Boris.
    That would be a very interesting contest.
    That combination would be very electable, I think.

    Gove's negatives are much less of an issue if he's Chancellor rather than PM. Chancellors are almost unpopular regardless (a point one should keep in mind when thinking about Osborne - who was the last popular Chancellor? - easy, Clarke - and before that?)
    Brown was popular when he was maxing out the credit card. It's easier to be popular while being a giveaway Chancellor than an austere one.
    I'm afraid it's a sad fact that as of next year we will have had 20 years of political chancellors and zero of reformers. It's one of the reasons we're struggling.
    I view most "reformers" in the same light as "political" Chancellors. We don't need endless revolution from HMRC, we need the government to step out of the way as much as possible and let us get on with our lives.
    And anyone who disagrees with that should be punished, eh?

  • Sean_F said:

    It's not fair at all.

    That's an incredibly bias write up of his resignation.

    You're normally much more objective than this.
    The fallacy that people you don't like must have base motives for their actions.
    It's more that the explanation given by Iain Duncan Smith is utterly unconvincing. We are being asked to believe that he has been held hostage in a Cabinet for six years delivering benefits cuts that he hated, standing only last year on a manifesto pledged to deliver further cuts and that he is profoundly opposed to the entire thrust of the government two days after a budget where he had previously signed off cuts that in any case were being abandoned before he resigned. Like the Walrus, he holds his pocket-handkerchief before his streaming eyes.

    It's utterly implausible.

    There is a simpler explanation: he hates David Cameron and in particular George Osborne, and he is looking to sabotage them.
    But why does he hate them? That you can't answer. According to sources close to IDS (I know) the final straw was when the Treasury decided to dump on him after the fallout began.

    I don't know who to believe (as usual Andrew Rawnsley seems fairly credible) but I wonder if your tribal metropolitanism is blinding you to side with the Cameroons.
    Oh I'm not particularly sympathetic towards George Osborne and David Cameron on this either. I have the impression that they personally dislike Iain Duncan Smith and I doubt either would particularly trouble to hide their feelings.

    My theory as to why they hate each other? They're polar opposites in personality, class and politics. Such relationships would always be put under severe strain. With the bonds of loyalty frayed by the referendum, it's completely unsurprising to see them torn asunder by an unrelated strain. It doesn't mean we have to believe the crocodile tears, especially when the stated rationale is so tissue thin.

    As for the rest, this is what happens when thieves fall out.
    Their dislike of IDS is based on them being SPADs in John Major's government and they saw what a disloyal shit IDS was and how he damaged that government and helped usher in 13 years of Labour
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,001
    At 37 Hancock is even younger than Osborne when he became Chancellor. Are the Tories really so short of options?
  • jayfdeejayfdee Posts: 618

    Mr. Jayfdee, huzzah, and thanks :)

    I should stress that Sir Edric is a completely different animal to the Bane of Souls/Journey to Altmortis books. So, if you like the latter you should still check the Sir Edric sample before buying, and if you dislike the latter you may nevertheless enjoy Sir Edric.

    99 pence for a download,how on earth do you make any money? Suppose every little helps.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,663

    At 37 Hancock is even younger than Osborne when he became Chancellor. Are the Tories really so short of options?

    Surely Kids Company has finished Hancock's ambitions. Shorely !
  • OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,469

    I'd go May as PM and Gove as Chancellor.

    Pulpstar said:

    I still hope Gove goes for it. Osborne pulling out could help Gove as despite being on opposite sides of the EU debate I do believe they're friends and political allies. If the writing is on the wall that a Leaver will get it from the members then why not have Osborne and his allies unite in a spirit of reconciliation and have Gove as that Leaver?

    Gove vs May sets it up nicely with two sensible candidates, one from each side of the leave/remain divide; and locks out Boris.
    That would be a very interesting contest.
    Neither remotely posh and both pretty competent - and May has a looooooong memory......
    The tory MP's also know about May's loooooong memory which is why I don't think she'll get the job, Gove, too close to the old regime. I believe that they will go for some one to let things calm down. At 50 - 1 on Betfair yesterday, David Davis might just get in this time.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,001
    Did anyone know that there is a Minister for Portsmouth? The current incumbent is Mark Francois.

    Matthew Hancock was previously Minister of State for Energy Business and Portsmouth.
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    OchEye said:

    I believe that they will go for some one to let things calm down. At 50 - 1 on Betfair yesterday, David Davis might just get in this time.

    LOL!
  • Craig Woodhouse
    No plan to plug £4bn black hole until autumn statement. What price magical growth in the economy fixing it?

    If there's a Remain result it will fix itself,
    Unbelievable. Please explain how that will happen. Magic Money Tree of the EU?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,080
    Mr. Jayfdee, although I don't keep detailed records, I've made more on Bane of Souls than anything else. Low (or even a free) price books can help persuade uncertain browsers to buy (after all, it's 'only' 99p).

    Next time I self-publish, probably Kingdom Asunder, it'll be 3.99-4.99, and I may raise the price for the subsequent trilogy entries.

    Pricing is a bugger, though. Some people have a floor to prices, others a ceiling. Some see 99p as worthless trash, some see it as a bargain. It's a question of how you want to be wrong as much as how you want to be right.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,001

    Sean_F said:

    It's not fair at all.

    That's an incredibly bias write up of his resignation.

    You're normally much more objective than this.
    The fallacy that people you don't like must have base motives for their actions.
    It's more that the explanation given by Iain Duncan Smith is utterly unconvincing. We are being asked to believe that he has been held hostage in a Cabinet for six years delivering benefits cuts that he hated, standing only last year on a manifesto pledged to deliver further cuts and that he is profoundly opposed to the entire thrust of the government two days after a budget where he had previously signed off cuts that in any case were being abandoned before he resigned. Like the Walrus, he holds his pocket-handkerchief before his streaming eyes.

    It's utterly implausible.

    There is a simpler explanation: he hates David Cameron and in particular George Osborne, and he is looking to sabotage them.
    But why does he hate them? That you can't answer. According to sources close to IDS (I know) the final straw was when the Treasury decided to dump on him after the fallout began.

    I don't know who to believe (as usual Andrew Rawnsley seems fairly credible) but I wonder if your tribal metropolitanism is blinding you to side with the Cameroons.
    Oh I'm not particularly sympathetic towards George Osborne and David Cameron on this either. I have the impression that they personally dislike Iain Duncan Smith and I doubt either would particularly trouble to hide their feelings.

    My theory as to why they hate each other? They're polar opposites in personality, class and politics. Such relationships would always be put under severe strain. With the bonds of loyalty frayed by the referendum, it's completely unsurprising to see them torn asunder by an unrelated strain. It doesn't mean we have to believe the crocodile tears, especially when the stated rationale is so tissue thin.

    As for the rest, this is what happens when thieves fall out.
    Their dislike of IDS is based on them being SPADs in John Major's government and they saw what a disloyal shit IDS was and how he damaged that government and helped usher in 13 years of Labour
    Before appointing him to the cabinet.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @DPJHodges: One other interesting thing about briefing is it's clear Eurosceptics don't think they'll win the referendum, and are planning accordingly.
  • Punters liked my Hancock as next Tory leader piece. Plus I also tipped him last year as next Chancellor. Also down to 20/1 from 80/1 as next Tory leader.
    Mike
    Matthew Hancock's Ladbrokes odds on becoming next Chancellor move from 16/1 to 8/1 following spate of bets

    Hancock is amongst the bottom rung of Ministers on a performance basis.

  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,714

    Wanderer said:

    I'd go May as PM and Gove as Chancellor.

    Pulpstar said:

    I still hope Gove goes for it. Osborne pulling out could help Gove as despite being on opposite sides of the EU debate I do believe they're friends and political allies. If the writing is on the wall that a Leaver will get it from the members then why not have Osborne and his allies unite in a spirit of reconciliation and have Gove as that Leaver?

    Gove vs May sets it up nicely with two sensible candidates, one from each side of the leave/remain divide; and locks out Boris.
    That would be a very interesting contest.
    That combination would be very electable, I think.

    Gove's negatives are much less of an issue if he's Chancellor rather than PM. Chancellors are almost unpopular regardless (a point one should keep in mind when thinking about Osborne - who was the last popular Chancellor? - easy, Clarke - and before that?)
    Brown was popular when he was maxing out the credit card. It's easier to be popular while being a giveaway Chancellor than an austere one.
    I'm afraid it's a sad fact that as of next year we will have had 20 years of political chancellors and zero of reformers. It's one of the reasons we're struggling.
    I view most "reformers" in the same light as "political" Chancellors. We don't need endless revolution from HMRC, we need the government to step out of the way as much as possible and let us get on with our lives.
    That's the point of a reformer Mr T. Simplify and get out of the way.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822

    Unbelievable. Please explain how that will happen. Magic Money Tree of the EU?

    Oh, it's obvious - the removal of the uncertainty. This really isn't terribly hard, is it?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554

    Mr. Jayfdee, although I don't keep detailed records, I've made more on Bane of Souls than anything else. Low (or even a free) price books can help persuade uncertain browsers to buy (after all, it's 'only' 99p).

    Next time I self-publish, probably Kingdom Asunder, it'll be 3.99-4.99, and I may raise the price for the subsequent trilogy entries.

    Pricing is a bugger, though. Some people have a floor to prices, others a ceiling. Some see 99p as worthless trash, some see it as a bargain. It's a question of how you want to be wrong as much as how you want to be right.

    Is there any money / market in using Patreon and / or releasing episodically?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @paulwaugh: After No10 says the PM "absolutely" has 'full confidence' in George Osborne...a reminder https://t.co/uxmsFMS9ak
  • Wanderer said:

    I'd go May as PM and Gove as Chancellor.

    Pulpstar said:

    I still hope Gove goes for it. Osborne pulling out could help Gove as despite being on opposite sides of the EU debate I do believe they're friends and political allies. If the writing is on the wall that a Leaver will get it from the members then why not have Osborne and his allies unite in a spirit of reconciliation and have Gove as that Leaver?

    Gove vs May sets it up nicely with two sensible candidates, one from each side of the leave/remain divide; and locks out Boris.
    That would be a very interesting contest.
    That combination would be very electable, I think.

    Gove's negatives are much less of an issue if he's Chancellor rather than PM. Chancellors are almost unpopular regardless (a point one should keep in mind when thinking about Osborne - who was the last popular Chancellor? - easy, Clarke - and before that?)
    Brown was popular when he was maxing out the credit card. It's easier to be popular while being a giveaway Chancellor than an austere one.
    I'm afraid it's a sad fact that as of next year we will have had 20 years of political chancellors and zero of reformers. It's one of the reasons we're struggling.
    I view most "reformers" in the same light as "political" Chancellors. We don't need endless revolution from HMRC, we need the government to step out of the way as much as possible and let us get on with our lives.
    Agreed unless they would reduce the tax code. Osborne complained about the size it became under Brown and then increased it further. Another failure.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Craig Woodhouse
    No plan to plug £4bn black hole until autumn statement. What price magical growth in the economy fixing it?

    If there's a Remain result it will fix itself, and if there's a Leave result it's academic anyway, because we'll have much bigger black holes to fill.

    As a general observation, Osborne and many others pay too much attention to changes in forecasts several years ahead. They are very uncertain anyway, so should be used as a very rough guide, not as a basis for evaluating policies which cost or bring in just a few billion.
    A few billion here, a few billion there, and pretty soon you're talking real money ...
  • Sean_F said:

    It's not fair at all.

    That's an incredibly bias write up of his resignation.

    You're normally much more objective than this.
    The fallacy that people you don't like must have base motives for their actions.
    It's more that the explanation given by Iain Duncan Smith is utterly unconvincing. We are being asked to believe that he has been held hostage in a Cabinet for six years delivering benefits cuts that he hated, standing only last year on a manifesto pledged to deliver further cuts and that he is profoundly opposed to the entire thrust of the government two days after a budget where he had previously signed off cuts that in any case were being abandoned

    There is a simpler explanation: he hates David Cameron and in particular George Osborne, and he is looking to sabotage them.
    But why does he hate them? That you can't answer. According to sources close to IDS (I know) the final straw was when the Treasury decided to dump on him after the fallout began.

    I don't know who to believe (as usual Andrew Rawnsley seems fairly credible) but I wonder if your tribal metropolitanism is blinding you to side with the Cameroons.
    Oh I'm not particularly sympathetic towards George Osborne and David Cameron on this either. I have the impression that they personally dislike Iain Duncan Smith and I doubt either would particularly trouble to hide their feelings.

    My theory as to why they hate each other? They're polar opposites in personality, class and politics. Such relationships would always be put under severe strain. With the bonds of loyalty frayed by the referendum, it's completely unsurprising to see them torn asunder by an unrelated strain. It doesn't mean we have to believe the crocodile tears, especially when the stated rationale is so tissue thin.

    As for the rest, this is what happens when thieves fall out.
    Their dislike of IDS is based on them being SPADs in John Major's government and they saw what a disloyal shit IDS was and how he damaged that government and helped usher in 13 years of Labour
    Before appointing him to the cabinet.
    They believed he had learned his lessons and believed his passion for Social Justice.

    Dave likes giving people second chances.

    Cf Andy Coulson.
  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    Scott_P said:

    @paulwaugh: After No10 says the PM "absolutely" has 'full confidence' in George Osborne...a reminder https://t.co/uxmsFMS9ak

    If Ozzie goes, can we expect a chorus of 'Oh, but I always knew he was a wrong un' from a certain nodding dog?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Wanderer said:

    I'd go May as PM and Gove as Chancellor.

    Pulpstar said:

    I still hope Gove goes for it. Osborne pulling out could help Gove as despite being on opposite sides of the EU debate I do believe they're friends and political allies. If the writing is on the wall that a Leaver will get it from the members then why not have Osborne and his allies unite in a spirit of reconciliation and have Gove as that Leaver?

    Gove vs May sets it up nicely with two sensible candidates, one from each side of the leave/remain divide; and locks out Boris.
    That would be a very interesting contest.
    That combination would be very electable, I think.

    Gove's negatives are much less of an issue if he's Chancellor rather than PM. Chancellors are almost unpopular regardless (a point one should keep in mind when thinking about Osborne - who was the last popular Chancellor? - easy, Clarke - and before that?)
    Brown was popular when he was maxing out the credit card. It's easier to be popular while being a giveaway Chancellor than an austere one.
    I'm afraid it's a sad fact that as of next year we will have had 20 years of political chancellors and zero of reformers. It's one of the reasons we're struggling.
    I view most "reformers" in the same light as "political" Chancellors. We don't need endless revolution from HMRC, we need the government to step out of the way as much as possible and let us get on with our lives.
    That's the point of a reformer Mr T. Simplify and get out of the way.
    If done right. Many reforms end up making things more complicated rather than simpler though.

    I'd be quite OK with a continuation of spending and the deficit coming down and then bringing taxes down and eliminating certain taxes. Primarily for me the most pernicious tax of all time is Employer's National Insurance which should not be reformed but when funds permit it should be abolished altogether.
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited March 2016
    Scott_P said:

    @DPJHodges: One other interesting thing about briefing is it's clear Eurosceptics don't think they'll win the referendum, and are planning accordingly.

    Forcing Osborne to be very careful what he says in future could be viewed as a consequence that favours LEAVE.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,896

    Four Russian athletes have tested positive for the banned drug meldonium.

    At least 16 Russian sportspeople, including tennis player Maria Sharapova, have tested positive for the substance since it was banned by the World Anti-Doping Agency on 1 January.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/athletics/35860851

    It seems dodgy tickers are very very common problem among elite Russian athletes..

    When I had a look I found two or three papers published in either Russia or former satellites on it’s use in exercise.
    I suspect it’s one of these things which has been used for ages and has only last year swum into WADA’s ken.

    There’s almost no reference that I could find that refers to it’s use for anything iother than in Russia or its close neighbours.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    edited March 2016


    I suspect it’s one of these things which has been used for ages and has only last year swum into WADA’s ken.

    It has, because they found it in a huge percentage of Russian athlete samples. It has also been used by the Russian military for a long time for boosting endurance.

    It isn't just the Russians that have been taking this route of "misusing" drugs for purposes they weren't originally designed.
  • OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,469

    OchEye said:

    Thanks to Morris for the Kindle news. Are they insane? It's another peer group thing - they assume that most customers monitor their site for updates, and have wifi, or have a laptop and USB cable. Plenty of people are relatively new to serious surfing - they have a laptop and a Kindle but don't bother to do updates unless they're told to by the system directly.

    Sorry Nick, warnings were sent at least a month ago to the email address registered to the particular Kindle. I know because I found one mostly, I will admit by accident, then had to search for my kindle, recharge it, login and download the update. (I couldn't remember how to turn it on, until I found the helpful hint on the screen).

    I suspect most of the emails went to defunct addresses, straight to the spam folder or were just quickly deleted with out reading. From my own experience, I think most Kindles these days, reside at the back of cupboards or drawers, or the sides of sofas and armchairs

    Interesting thought that someone should research how quickly modern tools go out of use due to new equipment, in this case, tablets, come on the market
    I thought that too and heard reports e-book sales were well down, but apparently not true...

    http://fortune.com/2015/09/24/ebook-sales/
    Hm! Interesting, but I have the Kindle app on my tablet and mobile phone, my desk top and laptop, so the revenue from purchases increases. But also the prices of Kindles and their equivalents has been going through the floor, in fact I believe that one of the US book sellers has pulled their version from the market.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,001

    Sean_F said:

    It's not fair at all.

    That's an incredibly bias write up of his resignation.

    You're normally much more objective than this.
    The fallacy that people you don't like must have base motives for their actions.
    It's more that the explanation given by Iain Duncan Smith is utterly unconvincing. We are being asked to believe that he has been held hostage in a Cabinet for six years delivering benefits cuts that he hated, standing only last year on a manifesto pledged to deliver further cuts and that he is profoundly opposed to the entire thrust of the government two days after a budget where he had previously signed off cuts that in any case were being abandoned

    There is a simpler explanation: he hates David Cameron and in particular George Osborne, and he is looking to sabotage them.
    But why does he hate them? That you can't answer. According to sources close to IDS (I know) the final straw was when the Treasury decided to dump on him after the fallout began.

    I don't know who to believe (as usual Andrew Rawnsley seems fairly credible) but I wonder if your tribal metropolitanism is blinding you to side with the Cameroons.
    As for the rest, this is what happens when thieves fall out.
    Their dislike of IDS is based on them being SPADs in John Major's government and they saw what a disloyal shit IDS was and how he damaged that government and helped usher in 13 years of Labour
    Before appointing him to the cabinet.
    They believed he had learned his lessons and believed his passion for Social Justice.

    Dave likes giving people second chances.

    Cf Andy Coulson.
    I think you have to look more deeply at Camborne. They are not popular with many backbenchers and are cliquey - it isn't just IDS.
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited March 2016

    Unbelievable. Please explain how that will happen. Magic Money Tree of the EU?

    Oh, it's obvious - the removal of the uncertainty. This really isn't terribly hard, is it?
    Is that what the OBR said when they cut the rate of growth assumptions for the next few years? The answer is no. So do you know better than the OBR?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Labour working flat out to shore up Osborne's position

    @CentralLobby: .@UKLabour's @JonAshworth MP: Osborne 'has failed his party, failed the economy & failed our country' | https://t.co/QZ5FjbTBZ7 @labourpress
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,896
    Just had a look at cricinfo’s commentary on the Womens t20 (Aus vs NZ) and found the following gem "1 run, full down leg, easy pickings. Worked to fine leg for another run. Aus don't quite have the luxury of poor balls.”.


    For those who don’t keep an eye on these things, looks like a win for the Silver Ferns.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,663
    I've just put £10 on Osborne being out before the end of March, 25-1 with Ladbrokes. If he's going, he's going quickly I reckon making it a better bet than the 7-4/2-1 out by year end.

    Vote of confidence from Dave sounds ominous.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,587
    I see the Government is accepting Labour Budget amendments on both solar heating and (of course) tampons. That's quite unusual in technical terms and suggests an element of "oh sod it" demoralisation - normally Opposition amendments are always voted down, with a promise to introduce a Government amendments taking account of them. It's actually more sensible to simply accept an amendment, but it wouldn't happen normally.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,786

    Sean_F said:

    It's not fair at all.

    That's an incredibly bias write up of his resignation.

    You're normally much more objective than this.
    The fallacy that people you don't like must have base motives for their actions.
    It's more that the explanation given by Iain Duncan Smith is utterly unconvincing. We are being asked to believe that he has been held hostage in a Cabinet for six years delivering benefits cuts that he hated, standing only last year on a manifesto pledged to deliver further cuts and that he is profoundly opposed to the entire thrust of the government two days after a budget where he had previously signed off cuts that in any case were being abandoned

    There is a simpler explanation: he hates David Cameron and in particular George Osborne, and he is looking to sabotage them.
    But why does he hate them? That you can't answer. According to sources close to IDS (I know) the final straw was when the Treasury decided to dump on him after the fallout began.

    I don't know who to believe (as usual Andrew Rawnsley seems fairly credible) but I wonder if your tribal metropolitanism is blinding you to side with the Cameroons.
    As for the rest, this is what happens when thieves fall out.
    Their dislike of IDS is based on them being SPADs in John Major's government and they saw what a disloyal shit IDS was and how he damaged that government and helped usher in 13 years of Labour
    Before appointing him to the cabinet.
    They believed he had learned his lessons and believed his passion for Social Justice.

    Dave likes giving people second chances.

    Cf Andy Coulson.
    I think you have to look more deeply at Camborne. They are not popular with many backbenchers and are cliquey - it isn't just IDS.
    i think thats the issue. The tory party is now looking post Cameron/Osborne, and there's a risk they're now just dead ducks.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,262

    Sean_F said:

    It's not fair at all.

    That's an incredibly bias write up of his resignation.

    You're normally much more objective than this.
    The fallacy that people you don't like must have base motives for their actions.
    It's more that the explanation given by Iain Duncan Smith is utterly unconvincing. We are being asked to believe that he has been held hostage in a Cabinet for six years delivering benefits cuts that he hated, standing only last year on a manifesto pledged to deliver further cuts and that he is profoundly opposed to the entire thrust of the government two days after a budget where he had previously signed off cuts that in any case were being abandoned

    There is a simpler explanation: he hates David Cameron and in particular George Osborne, and he is looking to sabotage them.
    But why does he hate them? That you can't answer. According to sources close to IDS (I know) the final straw was when the Treasury decided to dump on him after the fallout began.

    I don't know who to believe (as usual Andrew Rawnsley seems fairly credible) but I wonder if your tribal metropolitanism is blinding you to side with the Cameroons.
    Oh I'm not particularly sympathetic towards George Osborne and David Cameron on this either. I have the impression that they personally dislike Iain Duncan Smith and I doubt either would particularly trouble to hide their feelings.

    My theory as to why they hate each other? They're polar opposites

    As for the rest, this is what happens when thieves fall out.
    Their dislike of IDS is based on them being SPADs in John Major's government and they saw what a disloyal shit IDS was and how he damaged that government and helped usher in 13 years of Labour
    Before appointing him to the cabinet.
    They believed he had learned his lessons and believed his passion for Social Justice.

    Dave likes giving people second chances.

    Cf Andy Coulson.
    That was his first chance working for Dave, though.

    If you cross him, he never forgives. Worst part of Cameron's character IMHO.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,587
    edited March 2016
    Other interesting points in the running Guardian briefing are:

    - As a result of the U-turns, either housing benefits need to be cut further or the welfare cap will have to be scrapped
    - The Government plans not to announce what it will do about the gap until the autumn statement

    The latter seems quite remarkable - that's 6 months of uncertainty about whether and how the Budget will be made to add up. There's a case for saying that we no longer have an effectively functioning government.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2016/mar/21/tory-turmoil-cameron-ids-osborne-back-after-ids-resignation-by-backing-compassionate-conservatism-politics-live

    More generally, the situation illustrates what Tony Blair discovered - once you announce that you're going, your power just ebbs away.

  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Pulpstar said:

    I've just put £10 on Osborne being out before the end of March, 25-1 with Ladbrokes. If he's going, he's going quickly I reckon making it a better bet than the 7-4/2-1 out by year end.

    Vote of confidence from Dave sounds ominous.

    Not before the referendum. Not a chance. [Famous last words!]
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,896


    I suspect it’s one of these things which has been used for ages and has only last year swum into WADA’s ken.

    It has, because they found it in a huge percentage of Russian athlete samples. It has also been used by the Russian military for a long time for boosting endurance.

    It isn't just the Russians that have been taking this route of "misusing" drugs for purposes they weren't originally designed.
    Quite; salbutamol used by asthmatics world wide has also been implicated. It’s one of those which has to be reported if prescribed.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Yup.

    Sean_F said:

    It's not fair at all.

    That's an incredibly bias write up of his resignation.

    You're normally much more objective than this.
    The fallacy that people you don't like must have base motives for their actions.
    It's more that the explanation given by Iain Duncan Smith is utterly unconvincing. We are being asked to believe that he has been held hostage in a Cabinet for six years delivering benefits cuts that he hated, standing only last year on a manifesto pledged to deliver further cuts and that he is profoundly opposed to the entire thrust of the government two days after a budget where he had previously signed off cuts that in any case were being abandoned

    There is a simpler explanation: he hates David Cameron and in particular George Osborne, and he is looking to sabotage them.
    But why does he hate them? That you can't answer. According to sources close to IDS (I know) the final straw was when the Treasury decided to dump on him after the fallout began.

    I don't know who to believe (as usual Andrew Rawnsley seems fairly credible) but I wonder if your tribal metropolitanism is blinding you to side with the Cameroons.
    As for the rest, this is what happens when thieves fall out.
    Their dislike of IDS is based on them being SPADs in John Major's government and they saw what a disloyal shit IDS was and how he damaged that government and helped usher in 13 years of Labour
    Before appointing him to the cabinet.
    They believed he had learned his lessons and believed his passion for Social Justice.

    Dave likes giving people second chances.

    Cf Andy Coulson.
    I think you have to look more deeply at Camborne. They are not popular with many backbenchers and are cliquey - it isn't just IDS.
    i think thats the issue. The tory party is now looking post Cameron/Osborne, and there's a risk they're now just dead ducks.
  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,759
    No plan to fix 4 bn blackhole. This govt is a laughing stock!
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Nabavi in full on "Crisis, what Crisis?" mode. Comedy gold continues on PB courtesy of IDS and the party that Blue-on-Blue itself.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822

    Is that what the OBR said when they cut the rate of growth assumptions for the next few years? The answer is no. So do you know better than the OBR?

    http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/news/article-3465413/Worries-world-economy-Brexit-send-consumer-confidence-lowest-two-years.html

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/feb/24/brexit-referendum-destabilise-uk-economic-recovery-imf-lagarde

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/03/17/bank-of-england-comes-off-the-fence-in-brexit-debate/

    You don't exactly have to be a guru to understand that uncertainty causes reduced economic activity.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554


    I suspect it’s one of these things which has been used for ages and has only last year swum into WADA’s ken.

    It has, because they found it in a huge percentage of Russian athlete samples. It has also been used by the Russian military for a long time for boosting endurance.

    It isn't just the Russians that have been taking this route of "misusing" drugs for purposes they weren't originally designed.
    Quite; salbutamol used by asthmatics world wide has also been implicated. It’s one of those which has to be reported if prescribed.
    The number of distant runners with thyroid problem is amazing...I am sure it is a total coincidence that the use of one of the main drugs for that complaint causes weight lose in non-sufferers.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,001
    Why did Cameron announce he was going. He made those comments in the election campaign but they were easy enough to get out of. He could just say wait and see and he'll let people know closer to the time. No reason why he couldn't wriggle out of it.
This discussion has been closed.