Who picks up the Remainers if there's a devastating rift following a leadership victory for a Leaver?
A new centre pro-Establishment party. Cameron isn't a Tory. Clegg's isn't a Liberal. Umunna isn't a socialist. A bit of honest from all of them and form a new party shorn of their former pretence. They are the establishment party there to do their masters bidding. Then the rest of us who have values and principles can get on with being Tories Liberals Socialistss
Plenty of commentators and established elites in London want precisely such a body politik.
IDS isn't making a Commons statement either - just two interviews IIRC. Marr and Sky.
If he wanted to make a big fuss, this isn't how someone would do it. Cameron's letter response and then Altmann's created this media fest. All totally unnecessary and stupid handling that smacks of How Very Dare He.
As IDS noted in his Marr intv, he hasn't mentioned the EU in a decade.
He's greatly irked by poor treatment by Osborne. I think you're being a trifle unfair here - and Leave represents about half the Tory party in members, and MPs.
There is a section of the Tory party who have been unleadable since the early 90s and regrettably they are still there. Tories have been pretty ruthless with their leaders but their tolerance of the likes of David Davis, Bill Cash and even IDS has come back to bite them. There is the risk that the next generation of leader will not have it any better with the Moggster and Phillip Hollobone as well as a defeated Zac being semi detached parts of the party at best.
Sorry but that won't wash. We aren't talking about a few odd balls in funny blazers on the backbenches, 40% of MPs and over half the voluntary party are for leave, more MPs would have been for leave except for the government arm twisting operation.
Snip
Leave is weakened, possibly fatally so, by the eccentric wing. There is, as you say, a strong body of mainstream Conservatives who want to Leave but they get drowned out by these characters who are more newsworthy and who are useful to those parts of the media who want to paint Leave in a certain light.
Of course I would accept that voices in the wilderness are sometimes precursors to that switch in mainstream opinion and Bill Cash might claim such a role but Leave need some more coherent and credible leadership before it is too late
I am not even sure there is any evidence that he was being a "bloody nuisance" at the moment, except in as far as he attempted to deliver what he has always said he was going to deliver, got stiffed by the treasury and then tried to stop Camborne's attempt to pull the wool over the voters eyes. Had they funded his efforts at DWP properly, and let him get on with his job I rather doubt anyone would have heard a peep from him.
The fact of the matter is Camborne was doing something they knew would be controversial with the voters, and were hoping no one would notice. Osborne in his arrogance overplayed his hand and the whole lot got blown over the front page. Sorry, no sympathy at all, if George and Dave had played a straight bat none of this would have happened.
Is Europe not coming to look like a quintessentally right wing issue? Left wing voters may feel increasingly that this is nothing much to do with them. On the day differential turnout will work decisively against REMAIN.
Yep, it's the main reason why I expect Leave to win. It's side is far more passionate and committed. Even as a Remainer I find it hard to get truly worked up about the issue. It's all head, no heart.
Here's why I expect Remain to win: well over 2/3rds of all my friends, colleague and peers I know of in my professional and personal life, whom I've always known to be a natural eurosceptics, have, when I've pushed them in recent weeks, declared rather sheepishly (after a bit of rant about how much they detest Brussels, the EU and its bureaucrats) that they are voting Remain.
That normally leads to a bit of a counterargument by me, but "better the devil you know", job fears, trade worries, those who wish to live in the EU (e.g. Spain or France) and the lack of clarity on the non-EU alternative are the usual lines cited.
Project Fear's attack lines have penetrated through very, very well indeed.
The question with these sort of people is will they actually vote at all. Or will they be in the Que Sera Sera Party.
They are all London & South East ABs.
I don't say Leave couldn't run it close without them, but I don't think they can win without them.
There seems to be a belief here that Osborne is safe, sorry, but I think not. It is very telling that a joke made by Chris Bryant had all the Labour and opposition MP's laughing while the Tories looked glum and sat on their hands. In other words, all MP's know, in that case - all black cab drivers in London will know and it follows that the media journalists know. If Osborne sneezes, he's gone. http://metro.co.uk/2016/03/18/what-was-chris-bryant-suggesting-when-he-joked-if-george-osborne-new-the-dangers-of-coke-5760041/
Apart from which, there is a consensus forming as to the actual reason IDS resigned. It is true that he probably believes that he is trying to protect the poor etc., but not even the most gullible tory supporter suspects that after 6 years at the centre and sitting at the top table, he has suddenly had a Damascene Conversion.
My own version is that he became aware that someone was going to throw him to the media wolves over the handling of Universal Credit (3 times appealing to the courts to block FoI requests, and failing), incidentally taking the media's collective eye off the Budget car crash. He decided to get the knife in first, which he has done successfully.
I am afraid that this was always inevitable. The idea that the tories could essentially lead both Remain and Leave and all remain pals was always for the birds.
There is a section of the Tory party who have been unleadable since the early 90s and regrettably they are still there. Tories have been pretty ruthless with their leaders but their tolerance of the likes of David Davis, Bill Cash and even IDS has come back to bite them. There is the risk that the next generation of leader will not have it any better with the Moggster and Phillip Hollobone as well as a defeated Zac being semi detached parts of the party at best.
When I predicted that the Conservatives would fall out big time about the referendum I was assured by Conservatives of all stripes that would not happen.
Not this stripe. Although I favour Leave I have always questioned the damage this was likely to do to the very successful team that have restored the Tories to government after more than a decade in the wilderness. I have always wondered if it was going to be worth it. Since we are very likely to vote Remain it will not have been.
If I hold any resentment at all it will be to only two types of Tory: (1) those at the leadership, right at the very top, who are responsible for the debacle, and, (2) those who masqueraded as a eurosceptic for the benefit of their careers, yet welched when they had to stand up and be counted.
I'm not going to hold Soubry, Spelman, Green or Clarke's views against them anymore than I would Davis, Hollobone or Cash.
When it comes to ordinary Conservatives, I see the likes of David Herdson, Richard Nabavi and JohnO as being just as much on my side as DavidL, Charles and Philip Thompson.
Despite a bit of bickering here and there, I won't harbour resentment towards them. I may be unable to resist, on one or two occasions, saying 'I told you so' if things turn out EU-wise as I fear they will.
I am not even sure there is any evidence that he was being a "bloody nuisance" at the moment, except in as far as he attempted to deliver what he has always said he was going to deliver, got stiffed by the treasury and then tried to stop Camborne's attempt to pull the wool over the voters eyes. Had they funded his efforts at DWP properly, and let him get on with his job I rather doubt anyone would have heard a peep from him.
An alternative explanation is he was really crap at the job.
I guess if the rumoured DWP papers are released we may find out.
Sorry Scott, that just doesn't wash, even I don't believe that. He was at the DWP from GE2010 if he was that crap Dave would have got rid of him before now.. IDS is a twat for resigning, but he is now being smeared for doing so.
Is Europe not coming to look like a quintessentally right wing issue? Left wing voters may feel increasingly that this is nothing much to do with them. On the day differential turnout will work decisively against REMAIN.
Yep, it's the main reason why I expect Leave to win. It's side is far more passionate and committed. Even as a Remainer I find it hard to get truly worked up about the issue. It's all head, no heart.
Here's why I expect Remain to win: well over 2/3rds of all my friends, colleague and peers I know of in my professional and personal life, whom I've always known to be a natural eurosceptics, have, when I've pushed them in recent weeks, declared rather sheepishly (after a bit of rant about how much they detest Brussels, the EU and its bureaucrats) that they are voting Remain.
That normally leads to a bit of a counterargument by me, but "better the devil you know", job fears, trade worries, those who wish to live in the EU (e.g. Spain or France) and the lack of clarity on the non-EU alternative are the usual lines cited.
Project Fear's attack lines have penetrated through very, very well indeed.
The question with these sort of people is will they actually vote at all. Or will they be in the Que Sera Sera Party.
They are all London & South East ABs.
I don't say Leave couldn't run it close without them, but I don't think they can win without them.
This is absurd. That people like Hilary Benn would prefer to win the EU referendum rather that win the next GE, it's absurd.
No its not. I believe there are politicians in both Labour & Con who see 'getting the EU referendum right' as more important than winning GE20 - I suspect Benn would rather 5 years of Tories post 2020 than a Labour government outside the EU picking the bones out of the resultant mess.
I agree. There's plenty of evidence on this site and elsewhere that many Tories certainly feel like that. I think remaining in the EU is more important for the country's wellbeing than the colour of the next government
Basically, if you have a Kindle e-Reader then you need to get it updated pronto, otherwise you may not be able to, er, use an internet connection to browse/download books instantly, and you'll have to use a USB wire to your PC/laptop.
It's the first I'd heard of it, and the deadline is tomorrow.
Is Europe not coming to look like a quintessentally right wing issue? Left wing voters may feel increasingly that this is nothing much to do with them. On the day differential turnout will work decisively against REMAIN.
Yep, it's the main reason why I expect Leave to win. It's side is far more passionate and committed. Even as a Remainer I find it hard to get truly worked up about the issue. It's all head, no heart.
Yes should have won in Scotland then as they were all heart No all head, No won. A narrow Remain remains most likely
I think remaining in the EU is more important for the country's wellbeing than the colour of the next government
It is certainly a bigger issue, no matter which side of the fence you're on. Corbyn, May, Gove or Benn can be turfed out in 2025 - we'll still be in or out of the EU come 2035.
IDS's resignation letter was the most aggressive by a Cabinet minister in living memory. Any attempt to portray him as a lamb in all this is laughable.
Is Europe not coming to look like a quintessentally right wing issue? Left wing voters may feel increasingly that this is nothing much to do with them. On the day differential turnout will work decisively against REMAIN.
Yep, it's the main reason why I expect Leave to win. It's side is far more passionate and committed. Even as a Remainer I find it hard to get truly worked up about the issue. It's all head, no heart.
Yes should have won in Scotland then as they were all heart No all head, No won. A narrow Remain remains most likely
The no campaign was head not heart for the most part, but though they are fewer there are people in Scotland who support the union in a passionate way. The Euro lacks that to the degree so a similar campaign may be less effective.
IDS's resignation letter was the most aggressive by a Cabinet minister in living memory. Any attempt to portray him as a lamb in all this is laughable.
Morning all,
One of the aspects of all this that seems to have not had the salience it deserves is the perennial question of the Treasury and its power. What IDS is really saying is that he had big ideas for welfare reform and that they were repeatedly blocked or watered down by Treasury.
IDS's resignation letter was the most aggressive by a Cabinet minister in living memory. Any attempt to portray him as a lamb in all this is laughable.
Yes. Cameron and allies are now going for him, and maybe that's a mistake, but he undermined the entire basis for camerons argument that he is being fair, that is very aggressive, even if people think he is being right.
Too many are far too precious in this debate. both sides are going to slug it out and get ugly - one side may be the ugliest, but it's not as stark a divide as some think, they are all getting covered in muck.
Is Europe not coming to look like a quintessentally right wing issue? Left wing voters may feel increasingly that this is nothing much to do with them. On the day differential turnout will work decisively against REMAIN.
Yep, it's the main reason why I expect Leave to win. It's side is far more passionate and committed. Even as a Remainer I find it hard to get truly worked up about the issue. It's all head, no heart.
Yes should have won in Scotland then as they were all heart No all head, No won. A narrow Remain remains most likely
The no campaign was head not heart for the most part, but though they are fewer there are people in Scotland who support the union in a passionate way. The Euro lacks that to the degree so a similar campaign may be less effective.
IDS's resignation letter was the most aggressive by a Cabinet minister in living memory. Any attempt to portray him as a lamb in all this is laughable.
No one is suggesting he is a lamb, they are suggesting he is someone that could have been left alone to play with his toys in DWP with very little problem, but Osborne being an arrogant tosser who plainly didn't like him couldn't resist pushing a bit harder and then looks all surprised when it blows up in his face.
Mr. kle4, I agree. IDS' wording doesn't just harm the top two, it harms the whole party. He's either too stupid to realise that or too vindictive to care.
However, Osborne's dickishness and the over-reaction (authorising Altmann to escalate a major resignation into what may become a civil war) were also serious errors.
Brady's the most sensible chap to make a contribution so far.
There's a fair chunk of people who rather like some of Jezza's economic policies, but can't, and never will, stomach his International ones. While the talk is about economics, and Jezza is kept in a cupboard somewhere, Labour will have a small lead.
But as was mentioned to a lesser extent with Ed, Jezza is pure poison when other topics are mentioned. They can miss him off their leaflets, they can pretend he doesn't exist, but they can't keep him quiet forever. Then that fair chunk will rebel.
The sword of Damocles hangs over the Labour party. The Tories are just split and acting like ferrets in a sack - a mere flesh wound.
My other half has spent the weekend ranting about both IDS and George Osborne (not a fan of either). Jeremy Corbyn has just been on BBC Breakfast News. I didn't hear a word he said as I was treated to a lengthy recitation of all his evil deeds.
It's the starting of the marching season, we get like that, I'd give it a few days.
IDS's resignation letter was the most aggressive by a Cabinet minister in living memory. Any attempt to portray him as a lamb in all this is laughable.
No one is suggesting he is a lamb, they are suggesting he is someone that could have been left alone to play with his toys in DWP with very little problem, but Osborne being an arrogant tosser who plainly didn't like him couldn't resist pushing a bit harder and then looks all surprised when it blows up in his face.
When you've pissed off a colleague that much, the sensible thing is to express sadness and talk about unity. You don't stoke the fire and encourage personal attacks.
It's PR 101. The ire from Number 10 is beyond stupid. It's all emotional hot-head response. And look where that's got them.
I've worked with many bosses who wanted to stomp all over someone who broke ranks, and it never worked out well if I failed to deter them .
IDS's resignation letter was the most aggressive by a Cabinet minister in living memory. Any attempt to portray him as a lamb in all this is laughable.
Yes. Cameron and allies are now going for him, and maybe that's a mistake, but he undermined the entire basis for camerons argument that he is being fair, that is very aggressive, even if people think he is being right.
Too many are far too precious in this debate. both sides are going to slug it out and get ugly - one side may be the ugliest, but it's not as stark a divide as some think, they are all getting covered in muck.
Interesting report by PwC on the short term consequences of leaving the EU.
I assume for IDS the 1/2 a million who would loose their job are simply a price worth paying, although this seems to contrast with his statements yesterday.
Mr. kle4, I agree. IDS' wording doesn't just harm the top two, it harms the whole party. He's either too stupid to realise that or too vindictive to care.
However, Osborne's dickishness and the over-reaction (authorising Altmann to escalate a major resignation into what may become a civil war) were also serious errors.
Brady's the most sensible chap to make a contribution so far.
What do you think would be an appropriate level of reaction to an attempt to undermine the entire raison d'etre of the government?
IDS isn't making a Commons statement either - just two interviews IIRC. Marr and Sky.
If he wanted to make a big fuss, this isn't how someone would do it. Cameron's letter response and then Altmann's created this media fest. All totally unnecessary and stupid handling that smacks of How Very Dare He.
Not just that if he had wanted to do maximum damage to the government he would have stood up straight after the budget and asked the speaker for leave to make a personal statement and then resigned, with millions of people watching.
I am not even sure there is any evidence that he was being a "bloody nuisance" at the moment, except in as far as he attempted to deliver what he has always said he was going to deliver, got stiffed by the treasury and then tried to stop Camborne's attempt to pull the wool over the voters eyes. Had they funded his efforts at DWP properly, and let him get on with his job I rather doubt anyone would have heard a peep from him.
An alternative explanation is he was really crap at the job.
I guess if the rumoured DWP papers are released we may find out.
Oh good , can we also release the Treasury ones to see how shit Osborne is ?
Interesting report by PwC on the short term consequences of leaving the EU.
I assume for IDS the 1/2 a million who would loose their job are simply a price worth paying, although this seems to contrast with his statements yesterday.
Or he disagrees with the report. What did PwC say about joining the Euro?
Is Europe not coming to look like a quintessentally right wing issue? Left wing voters may feel increasingly that this is nothing much to do with them. On the day differential turnout will work decisively against REMAIN.
Yep, it's the main reason why I expect Leave to win. It's side is far more passionate and committed. Even as a Remainer I find it hard to get truly worked up about the issue. It's all head, no heart.
Yes should have won in Scotland then as they were all heart No all head, No won. A narrow Remain remains most likely
The no campaign was head not heart for the most part, but though they are fewer there are people in Scotland who support the union in a passionate way. The Euro lacks that to the degree so a similar campaign may be less effective.
You'd have got the same answer in almost every country. Are you a German / French or European ? What do you think they will reply ?
Mr. Meeks, scratching a wound may be understandable, but that doesn't make it smart.
As Machiavelli wrote, men must be pampered or annihilated (or well-treated/crushed). Altmann's attack inflamed IDS but did nothing to harm him, provoking only a retaliation by the Quiet Man and three statements of disagreement with her from other junior ministers.
What IDS said was bloody stupid. Giving more airtime to that and prompting multiple junior minister to agree with IDS (versus Altmann) was not clever. The likes of Cameron, Osborne, Gove and Brady should've co-operated to calm things down (perhaps by having a Leaver take DWP, or Cameron to agree to tone down the scare stories in agreement for a unified approach to IDS' departure [very sorry he's gone, did good work, signed off on Budget, surprised, etc]).
Interesting report by PwC on the short term consequences of leaving the EU.
I assume for IDS the 1/2 a million who would loose their job are simply a price worth paying, although this seems to contrast with his statements yesterday.
Or perhaps 500,000 people wouldn't lose their jobs?
This is absurd. That people like Hilary Benn would prefer to win the EU referendum rather that win the next GE, it's absurd.
No its not. I believe there are politicians in both Labour & Con who see 'getting the EU referendum right' as more important than winning GE20 - I suspect Benn would rather 5 years of Tories post 2020 than a Labour government outside the EU picking the bones out of the resultant mess.
I agree. There's plenty of evidence on this site and elsewhere that many Tories certainly feel like that. I think remaining in the EU is more important for the country's wellbeing than the colour of the next government
Is Europe not coming to look like a quintessentally right wing issue? Left wing voters may feel increasingly that this is nothing much to do with them. On the day differential turnout will work decisively against REMAIN.
Yep, it's the main reason why I expect Leave to win. It's side is far more passionate and committed. Even as a Remainer I find it hard to get truly worked up about the issue. It's all head, no heart.
Yes should have won in Scotland then as they were all heart No all head, No won. A narrow Remain remains most likely
The no campaign was head not heart for the most part, but though they are fewer there are people in Scotland who support the union in a passionate way. The Euro lacks that to the degree so a similar campaign may be less effective.
You'd have got the same answer in almost every country. Are you a German / French or European ? What do you think they will reply ?
How many people say I belong to the UN ?
Less than the number of Scots who say they are British I suspect.
Mr. Meeks, scratching a wound may be understandable, but that doesn't make it smart.
As Machiavelli wrote, men must be pampered or annihilated (or well-treated/crushed). Altmann's attack inflamed IDS but did nothing to harm him, provoking only a retaliation by the Quiet Man and three statements of disagreement with her from other junior ministers.
What IDS said was bloody stupid. Giving more airtime to that and prompting multiple junior minister to agree with IDS (versus Altmann) was not clever. The likes of Cameron, Osborne, Gove and Brady should've co-operated to calm things down (perhaps by having a Leaver take DWP, or Cameron to agree to tone down the scare stories in agreement for a unified approach to IDS' departure [very sorry he's gone, did good work, signed off on Budget, surprised, etc]).
It's always sensible to count to ten before responding to someone who's angered you.
I am not even sure there is any evidence that he was being a "bloody nuisance" at the moment, except in as far as he attempted to deliver what he has always said he was going to deliver, got stiffed by the treasury and then tried to stop Camborne's attempt to pull the wool over the voters eyes. Had they funded his efforts at DWP properly, and let him get on with his job I rather doubt anyone would have heard a peep from him.
An alternative explanation is he was really crap at the job.
I guess if the rumoured DWP papers are released we may find out.
Sorry Scott, that just doesn't wash, even I don't believe that. He was at the DWP from GE2010 if he was that crap Dave would have got rid of him before now.. IDS is a twat for resigning, but he is now being smeared for doing so.
IIRC Cameron did try to shuffle him put to a department where he'd do less damage, but he made a credible threat to throw his toys out of the pram. Of course he should have fired him as his incompetence literally killed people, but politically it's easy to understand why he didn't.
There seems to be a belief here that Osborne is safe, sorry, but I think not. It is very telling that a joke made by Chris Bryant had all the Labour and opposition MP's laughing while the Tories looked glum and sat on their hands. In other words, all MP's know, in that case - all black cab drivers in London will know and it follows that the media journalists know. If Osborne sneezes, he's gone. http://metro.co.uk/2016/03/18/what-was-chris-bryant-suggesting-when-he-joked-if-george-osborne-new-the-dangers-of-coke-5760041/
Apart from which, there is a consensus forming as to the actual reason IDS resigned. It is true that he probably believes that he is trying to protect the poor etc., but not even the most gullible tory supporter suspects that after 6 years at the centre and sitting at the top table, he has suddenly had a Damascene Conversion.
My own version is that he became aware that someone was going to throw him to the media wolves over the handling of Universal Credit (3 times appealing to the courts to block FoI requests, and failing), incidentally taking the media's collective eye off the Budget car crash. He decided to get the knife in first, which he has done successfully.
I'd be interested in PB's thoughts on 1) ethnic minority voters and 2) historic non-voters in relation to the EU referendum. Do we think this issue is as salient for mostly Labour leaning minorities as for White Brits? Also, the Scottish referendum brought out people who'd never voted before. Will the hysteria cause a similar effect nationwide? I can't see those people being for remain (largely DE etc).
This doesn't fit in well with the Leave campaign's narrative: They're trying to argue that a non-EU Britain would be all bold and free-trading, not that they'd out-protectionist the EU.
I'd be interested in PB's thoughts on 1) ethnic minority voters and 2) historic non-voters in relation to the EU referendum. Do we think this issue is as salient for mostly Labour leaning minorities as for White Brits? Also, the Scottish referendum brought out people who'd never voted before. Will the hysteria cause a similar effect nationwide? I can't see those people being for remain (largely DE etc).
Ethnic minority voters will vote big time to REMAIN. Regarding Turnout, I am not so sure. If turnout is less than 60%, LEAVE wins.
This doesn't fit in well with the Leave campaign's narrative: They're trying to argue that a non-EU Britain would be all bold and free-trading, not that they'd out-protectionist the EU.
An anecdote like that, perhaps translated into a price per ton, would be dynamite in a Leave leaflet for the North East
I'd be interested in PB's thoughts on 1) ethnic minority voters and 2) historic non-voters in relation to the EU referendum. Do we think this issue is as salient for mostly Labour leaning minorities as for White Brits? Also, the Scottish referendum brought out people who'd never voted before. Will the hysteria cause a similar effect nationwide? I can't see those people being for remain (largely DE etc).
At present, Leave voters are more fired up.
If people who don't often vote do turn out in large numbers, that will help Remain.
Interesting report by PwC on the short term consequences of leaving the EU.
I assume for IDS the 1/2 a million who would loose their job are simply a price worth paying, although this seems to contrast with his statements yesterday.
The EU suits the Big Four (KPMG, EY, PwC and Deloitte) very nicely.
I used to work for one of the Big Four, and their market position isn't something they want disrupting.
Having written an 'independent' report for one of their clients, I know to take them with a pinch of salt.
This doesn't fit in well with the Leave campaign's narrative: They're trying to argue that a non-EU Britain would be all bold and free-trading, not that they'd out-protectionist the EU.
True but nor does it fit the Remain narrative that the EU will look after us in the big, bad world.
Mr. Meeks, scratching a wound may be understandable, but that doesn't make it smart.
As Machiavelli wrote, men must be pampered or annihilated (or well-treated/crushed). Altmann's attack inflamed IDS but did nothing to harm him, provoking only a retaliation by the Quiet Man and three statements of disagreement with her from other junior ministers.
What IDS said was bloody stupid. Giving more airtime to that and prompting multiple junior minister to agree with IDS (versus Altmann) was not clever. The likes of Cameron, Osborne, Gove and Brady should've co-operated to calm things down (perhaps by having a Leaver take DWP, or Cameron to agree to tone down the scare stories in agreement for a unified approach to IDS' departure [very sorry he's gone, did good work, signed off on Budget, surprised, etc]).
I thought the new W&P Secretary was a LEAVEr. Apparently, he voted like an Euro-sceptic back in 2005. I do not know the details.
Mr. Meeks, scratching a wound may be understandable, but that doesn't make it smart.
As Machiavelli wrote, men must be pampered or annihilated (or well-treated/crushed). Altmann's attack inflamed IDS but did nothing to harm him, provoking only a retaliation by the Quiet Man and three statements of disagreement with her from other junior ministers.
What IDS said was bloody stupid. Giving more airtime to that and prompting multiple junior minister to agree with IDS (versus Altmann) was not clever. The likes of Cameron, Osborne, Gove and Brady should've co-operated to calm things down (perhaps by having a Leaver take DWP, or Cameron to agree to tone down the scare stories in agreement for a unified approach to IDS' departure [very sorry he's gone, did good work, signed off on Budget, surprised, etc]).
The bigger problem for the leadership is that the Conservative party is stuffed to the gunnels with people who would prefer to agree with Iain Duncan Smith, no matter how disloyal he has been to the government in which he has served, simply because he is a Leaver.
I'd be interested in PB's thoughts on 1) ethnic minority voters and 2) historic non-voters in relation to the EU referendum. Do we think this issue is as salient for mostly Labour leaning minorities as for White Brits? Also, the Scottish referendum brought out people who'd never voted before. Will the hysteria cause a similar effect nationwide? I can't see those people being for remain (largely DE etc).
What hysteria? I'm not sure I've overheard anyone talk about the EU in or out.
I'd be interested in PB's thoughts on 1) ethnic minority voters and 2) historic non-voters in relation to the EU referendum. Do we think this issue is as salient for mostly Labour leaning minorities as for White Brits? Also, the Scottish referendum brought out people who'd never voted before. Will the hysteria cause a similar effect nationwide? I can't see those people being for remain (largely DE etc).
At present, Leave voters are more fired up.
If people who don't often vote do turn out in large numbers, that will help Remain.
I think you're right about those who don't vote often, but what about those who've never voted before? As most are DE you'd think that Leave would have a chance with them.
This doesn't fit in well with the Leave campaign's narrative: They're trying to argue that a non-EU Britain would be all bold and free-trading, not that they'd out-protectionist the EU.
An anecdote like that, perhaps translated into a price per ton, would be dynamite in a Leave leaflet for the North East
Equally, the EU could impose duties on import of cars from Britain ! I don't think it will hurt BMW that much judging by the waiting list.
'Having written an 'independent' report for one of their clients, I know to take them with a pinch of salt.'
And I have done likewise.
As usual, these reports are a product of carefully selected assumptions and then post-analysis spin.
So with a wave of the hands you assume various negative results and dismiss more positive scenarios. Then you produce a menu of results from which the biased client can pick those which fit their agenda best - hey presto it's money in the bank.
Interesting report by PwC on the short term consequences of leaving the EU.
I assume for IDS the 1/2 a million who would loose their job are simply a price worth paying, although this seems to contrast with his statements yesterday.
The EU suits the Big Four (KPMG, EY, PwC and Deloitte) very nicely.
I used to work for one of the Big Four, and their market position isn't something they want disrupting.
Having written an 'independent' report for one of their clients, I know to take them with a pinch of salt.
Are there any reports out there showing a sort term increase in employment however? The EU debate seems to have become as fact free and faith based as the SIndy ref. Leave need to come up with some better rebuttals than to simply claim everyone else is lying.
I'd be interested in PB's thoughts on 1) ethnic minority voters and 2) historic non-voters in relation to the EU referendum. Do we think this issue is as salient for mostly Labour leaning minorities as for White Brits? Also, the Scottish referendum brought out people who'd never voted before. Will the hysteria cause a similar effect nationwide? I can't see those people being for remain (largely DE etc).
What hysteria? I'm not sure I've overheard anyone talk about the EU in or out.
I'm talking about the last few weeks. I don't think there'll be any escape then.
Mr. Meeks, whereas you're taking the side of Cameron/Osborne, regardless of how arrogant and complacent they've been, just because they're Remainers?
Not at all.
It's a simple observation that for Leavers, Leaving is far more important than government coherence. For those of us who are not utterly obsessed by the subject, government coherence is far more important than the referendum.
You'd have got the same answer in almost every country. Are you a German / French or European ? What do you think they will reply ?
That is simply wrong. The EU's own regular polls show UK respondents are far less likely to feel 'attached' to the EU than those in Germany or France. Also much less likely to feel either 'European' or Nationality+'European' and much less likely to feel 'citizens' of the EU.
I thought Romney would win in 2012 because most of my US acquaintances - largely Democrat - were so negative about Obama. Turned out (of course) they were a very narrow demographic - largely well-off, white, middle aged men. The lesson I learned is to always, without fail, to look beyond your peer group. It's where Corbynistas are going wrong and maybe where UKIPers predicting gains in northern England went wrong last year.
I agree about the peer group - it's a mistake we are all prone to unless we actively resist. One can see a clear move in one direction in a peer group, but it may not be typical.
Don's article is right - pro-EU Labour people like me would have preferred the Tory meltdown to come after the referendum, as there's obviously a risk that EU membership will be collateral damage. But it's not a question of choosing between EU membership and winning in 2020; neither is in our power to decide, so we can only argue our case in both situations. I don't think Don is suggesting that we ought to be nice to the Tories until the referendum to avoid rocking the EU boat.
But I agree that we need to do our best to maximise turnout among pro-EU Labour voters, and discourage the view that it's a chance to kick the government. In a way that's easier because of the Tory chaos - if we vote no we can't be sure which Tories we'll turn out to have kicked. Facilitating a switch from Cameron to David Davis is not a sensible Labour voter ambition.
Interesting report by PwC on the short term consequences of leaving the EU.
I assume for IDS the 1/2 a million who would loose their job are simply a price worth paying, although this seems to contrast with his statements yesterday.
'Having written an 'independent' report for one of their clients, I know to take them with a pinch of salt.'
And I have done likewise.
As usual, these reports are a product of carefully selected assumptions and then post-analysis spin.
So with a wave of the hands you assume various negative results and dismiss more positive scenarios. Then you produce a menu of results from which the biased client can pick those which fit their agenda best - hey presto it's money in the bank.
Mr. Meeks, whereas you're taking the side of Cameron/Osborne, regardless of how arrogant and complacent they've been, just because they're Remainers?
Not at all.
It's a simple observation that for Leavers, Leaving is far more important than government coherence. For those of us who are not utterly obsessed by the subject, government coherence is far more important than the referendum.
Is Europe not coming to look like a quintessentally right wing issue? Left wing voters may feel increasingly that this is nothing much to do with them. On the day differential turnout will work decisively against REMAIN.
Yep, it's the main reason why I expect Leave to win. It's side is far more passionate and committed. Even as a Remainer I find it hard to get truly worked up about the issue. It's all head, no heart.
I was thinking something similar and then went out for lunch with a bunch of normal people and realized I'd been spending too much time reading comments on here. Most people are pragmatic and reasonably happy the way things are.
My only concern-and it's a big one-is that the Outers manage to persuade people that it's all about control of immigration. I always have a fear that there are a lot of unseen people who harbour rather primordial thoughts about immigrants
Put it this way. Ever since he was elected, Jeremy Corbyn has been saying that a) David Cameron and George Osborne should stop prioritising deficit clearance above all else, no matter the human cost; b) they should stop cutting benefits for working-age claimants while protecting the better off; and c) they show little interest in the lives of people who don’t vote Conservative. Day after day, week after week, Mr Corbyn has made all those points – and yet hardly anyone listened.
Now that Mr Duncan Smith has made the exact same points, however, everyone is listening. This kind of talent for seizing the news agenda and panicking the Government is precisely what the Opposition is crying out for. If I were a senior figure in the Labour Party, I would lose no time in sounding out Mr Duncan Smith about a possible leadership bid.
Is Europe not coming to look like a quintessentally right wing issue? Left wing voters may feel increasingly that this is nothing much to do with them. On the day differential turnout will work decisively against REMAIN.
Yep, it's the main reason why I expect Leave to win. It's side is far more passionate and committed. Even as a Remainer I find it hard to get truly worked up about the issue. It's all head, no heart.
I was thinking something similar and then went out for lunch with a bunch of normal people and realized I'd been spending too much time reading comments on here. Most people are pragmatic and reasonably happy the way things are.
My only concern-and it's a big one-is that the Outers manage to persuade people that it's all about control of immigration. I always have a fear that there are a lot of unseen people who harbour rather primordial thoughts about immigrants
This is who I'm thinking of in terms of people who've never voted before.
I'd be interested in PB's thoughts on 1) ethnic minority voters and 2) historic non-voters in relation to the EU referendum. Do we think this issue is as salient for mostly Labour leaning minorities as for White Brits? Also, the Scottish referendum brought out people who'd never voted before. Will the hysteria cause a similar effect nationwide? I can't see those people being for remain (largely DE etc).
What hysteria? I'm not sure I've overheard anyone talk about the EU in or out.
I'm talking about the last few weeks. I don't think there'll be any escape then.
I'm not sure either Remain or Leave is engaging the public with their incoherent warnings that something very bad but unspecified will happen if we vote the wrong way. There is nothing like the spirit the SNP conjured in IndyRef that came from nowhere to almost breaking up the country.
No actually. He's pointed out Osborne isn't wearing the right clothes or any here.
I want the Tories to retain power, we won't do that by being tin eared. We've spent a decade or more getting rid of this label, and George is dragging us backwards.
Mr. Meeks, scratching a wound may be understandable, but that doesn't make it smart.
As Machiavelli wrote, men must be pampered or annihilated (or well-treated/crushed). Altmann's attack inflamed IDS but did nothing to harm him, provoking only a retaliation by the Quiet Man and three statements of disagreement with her from other junior ministers.
What IDS said was bloody stupid. Giving more airtime to that and prompting multiple junior minister to agree with IDS (versus Altmann) was not clever. The likes of Cameron, Osborne, Gove and Brady should've co-operated to calm things down (perhaps by having a Leaver take DWP, or Cameron to agree to tone down the scare stories in agreement for a unified approach to IDS' departure [very sorry he's gone, did good work, signed off on Budget, surprised, etc]).
The bigger problem for the leadership is that the Conservative party is stuffed to the gunnels with people who would prefer to agree with Iain Duncan Smith, no matter how disloyal he has been to the government in which he has served, simply because he is a Leaver.
Interesting report by PwC on the short term consequences of leaving the EU.
I assume for IDS the 1/2 a million who would loose their job are simply a price worth paying, although this seems to contrast with his statements yesterday.
The EU suits the Big Four (KPMG, EY, PwC and Deloitte) very nicely.
I used to work for one of the Big Four, and their market position isn't something they want disrupting.
Having written an 'independent' report for one of their clients, I know to take them with a pinch of salt.
Are there any reports out there showing a sort term increase in employment however? The EU debate seems to have become as fact free and faith based as the SIndy ref. Leave need to come up with some better rebuttals than to simply claim everyone else is lying.
Any report either way on the EU is stuffed full of assumptions and extrapolations.
However, both OpenEurope and Capital Economics have papers showing net economic benefits to Leaving.
Personally, I think the economics in the short-term make precious little difference, albeit a small fall in sterling and initial uncertainty may stall investment for a few months.
I thought Romney would win in 2012 because most of my US acquaintances - largely Democrat - were so negative about Obama. Turned out (of course) they were a very narrow demographic - largely well-off, white, middle aged men. The lesson I learned is to always, without fail, to look beyond your peer group. It's where Corbynistas are going wrong and maybe where UKIPers predicting gains in northern England went wrong last year.
I agree about the peer group - it's a mistake we are all prone to unless we actively resist. One can see a clear move in one direction in a peer group, but it may not be typical.
Don's article is right - pro-EU Labour people like me would have preferred the Tory meltdown to come after the referendum, as there's obviously a risk that EU membership will be collateral damage. But it's not a question of choosing between EU membership and winning in 2020; neither is in our power to decide, so we can only argue our case in both situations. I don't think Don is suggesting that we ought to be nice to the Tories until the referendum to avoid rocking the EU boat.
But I agree that we need to do our best to maximise turnout among pro-EU Labour voters, and discourage the view that it's a chance to kick the government. In a way that's easier because of the Tory chaos - if we vote no we can't be sure which Tories we'll turn out to have kicked. Facilitating a switch from Cameron to David Davis is not a sensible Labour voter ambition.
Exactly. Attacking Cameron would be a big mistake. It is, however, difficult resisting the temptation to give Osborne the boot.
So it turns out both Dave and George are not really very good at politics. Two things they could and should have put above all else in running a Tory government: 1. Be on the same side as their party and on the right side of history with respect to the EU. They've gone mental. They've gone for the establishment, for the bureaucrat, for the rentier and against middle England. Dave could have been the country and the party's hero by coming back from the EU, saying 'I tried but they aren't interested in deep reform - so we're leaving'. He's utterly split his party and guaranteed a toxic neverendum on the issue. 2. Kill the deficit - but spread the pain absolutely fairly. That includes the wealthy and the retired. Ozzy seems simply not to get this. He's politically autistic when it comes to pasty tax, tax credits, disability benefit etc. That makes him a somewhat competent manager but no leader. GOWNBPM.
I thought Romney would win in 2012 because most of my US acquaintances - largely Democrat - were so negative about Obama. Turned out (of course) they were a very narrow demographic - largely well-off, white, middle aged men. The lesson I learned is to always, without fail, to look beyond your peer group. It's where Corbynistas are going wrong and maybe where UKIPers predicting gains in northern England went wrong last year.
I agree about the peer group - it's a mistake we are all prone to unless we actively resist. One can see a clear move in one direction in a peer group, but it may not be typical.
Indeed so.
My only political betting failure in the past decade was the last Speaker contest. I'd had some good information that Margaret Beckett was well fancied and the portends were favourable. Sadly this information come from too narrow a base and I failed to undertake due diligence.
The result was an eye-popping loss only mitigated by some nifty footwork as the contest unfolded.
Mr. Meeks, scratching a wound may be understandable, but that doesn't make it smart.
As Machiavelli wrote, men must be pampered or annihilated (or well-treated/crushed). Altmann's attack inflamed IDS but did nothing to harm him, provoking only a retaliation by the Quiet Man and three statements of disagreement with her from other junior ministers.
What IDS said was bloody stupid. Giving more airtime to that and prompting multiple junior minister to agree with IDS (versus Altmann) was not clever. The likes of Cameron, Osborne, Gove and Brady should've co-operated to calm things down (perhaps by having a Leaver take DWP, or Cameron to agree to tone down the scare stories in agreement for a unified approach to IDS' departure [very sorry he's gone, did good work, signed off on Budget, surprised, etc]).
The bigger problem for the leadership is that the Conservative party is stuffed to the gunnels with people who would prefer to agree with Iain Duncan Smith, no matter how disloyal he has been to the government in which he has served, simply because he is a Leaver.
Er! The biggest problem is that there is a a large number of Conservative mp's who don't like Cameron and detest Osborne. When the MP's go back to their constituencies, they get their ears filled with complaints from the constituents, local conservative party members fed up with being firewalls and lightning rods for the leadership, small and medium business leaders and owners not getting the tax breaks of the big companies and banks, journalists from the local media asking awkward questions, etc., etc.. They just want, like most people, to be popular, loved and respect, only it ain't happening.
Well, would you like to try and defend the indefensible 24/7/365 with out a break? An MP, some years back was calculated to get 10k pieces of communication each week, compared to a hundred or so back in the 1950's.I suspect that the average tory MP gets around 10k a day, nowadays.
Comments
It already exists
If he wanted to make a big fuss, this isn't how someone would do it. Cameron's letter response and then Altmann's created this media fest. All totally unnecessary and stupid handling that smacks of How Very Dare He.
http://metro.co.uk/2016/03/18/what-was-chris-bryant-suggesting-when-he-joked-if-george-osborne-new-the-dangers-of-coke-5760041/
Apart from which, there is a consensus forming as to the actual reason IDS resigned. It is true that he probably believes that he is trying to protect the poor etc., but not even the most gullible tory supporter suspects that after 6 years at the centre and sitting at the top table, he has suddenly had a Damascene Conversion.
My own version is that he became aware that someone was going to throw him to the media wolves over the handling of Universal Credit (3 times appealing to the courts to block FoI requests, and failing), incidentally taking the media's collective eye off the Budget car crash. He decided to get the knife in first, which he has done successfully.
I'm not going to hold Soubry, Spelman, Green or Clarke's views against them anymore than I would Davis, Hollobone or Cash.
When it comes to ordinary Conservatives, I see the likes of David Herdson, Richard Nabavi and JohnO as being just as much on my side as DavidL, Charles and Philip Thompson.
Despite a bit of bickering here and there, I won't harbour resentment towards them. I may be unable to resist, on one or two occasions, saying 'I told you so' if things turn out EU-wise as I fear they will.
Miss Plato, quite. The Altmann response stirred things up rather than calming things down.
https://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/help/customer/display.html?nodeId=201994710
Basically, if you have a Kindle e-Reader then you need to get it updated pronto, otherwise you may not be able to, er, use an internet connection to browse/download books instantly, and you'll have to use a USB wire to your PC/laptop.
It's the first I'd heard of it, and the deadline is tomorrow.
Could be anywhere between 1/100 and ~1/2. Who knows?
On the publicly released vote tallies, it looks pretty clear cut but...
Dirty campaign + high stakes + this;
Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump · Mar 18
Why haven't they released the final Missouri victory for us yet? Could it be because Cruz's guy runs Missouri?
One of the aspects of all this that seems to have not had the salience it deserves is the perennial question of the Treasury and its power. What IDS is really saying is that he had big ideas for welfare reform and that they were repeatedly blocked or watered down by Treasury.
Eventually he had enough.
Too many are far too precious in this debate. both sides are going to slug it out and get ugly - one side may be the ugliest, but it's not as stark a divide as some think, they are all getting covered in muck.
It's not the same dynamic for Remainers.
Being British/sovereignty is a big factor for Leavers.
However, Osborne's dickishness and the over-reaction (authorising Altmann to escalate a major resignation into what may become a civil war) were also serious errors.
Brady's the most sensible chap to make a contribution so far.
It's PR 101. The ire from Number 10 is beyond stupid. It's all emotional hot-head response. And look where that's got them.
I've worked with many bosses who wanted to stomp all over someone who broke ranks, and it never worked out well if I failed to deter them .
I assume for IDS the 1/2 a million who would loose their job are simply a price worth paying, although this seems to contrast with his statements yesterday.
How many people say I belong to the UN ?
"The European Union took the step of imposing a tariff on Chinese steel imports in January, at a rate between 9.2 per cent and 13 per cent. The USA too decided that China had gone too far, and also took the step of imposing a tariff. The tariff that the US Department of Commerce imposed was 265.79 per cent."
http://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2016/03/nadhim-zahawi-tampon-taxes-steel-dumping-and-why-the-time-has-come-to-leave-the-eu.html
As Machiavelli wrote, men must be pampered or annihilated (or well-treated/crushed). Altmann's attack inflamed IDS but did nothing to harm him, provoking only a retaliation by the Quiet Man and three statements of disagreement with her from other junior ministers.
What IDS said was bloody stupid. Giving more airtime to that and prompting multiple junior minister to agree with IDS (versus Altmann) was not clever. The likes of Cameron, Osborne, Gove and Brady should've co-operated to calm things down (perhaps by having a Leaver take DWP, or Cameron to agree to tone down the scare stories in agreement for a unified approach to IDS' departure [very sorry he's gone, did good work, signed off on Budget, surprised, etc]).
If people who don't often vote do turn out in large numbers, that will help Remain.
I used to work for one of the Big Four, and their market position isn't something they want disrupting.
Having written an 'independent' report for one of their clients, I know to take them with a pinch of salt.
And I have done likewise.
As usual, these reports are a product of carefully selected assumptions and then post-analysis spin.
So with a wave of the hands you assume various negative results and dismiss more positive scenarios. Then you produce a menu of results from which the biased client can pick those which fit their agenda best - hey presto it's money in the bank.
It's a simple observation that for Leavers, Leaving is far more important than government coherence. For those of us who are not utterly obsessed by the subject, government coherence is far more important than the referendum.
That is simply wrong. The EU's own regular polls show UK respondents are far less likely to feel 'attached' to the EU than those in Germany or France. Also much less likely to feel either 'European' or Nationality+'European' and much less likely to feel 'citizens' of the EU.
http://ec.europa.eu/public_opinion/archives/eb/eb77/eb77_citizen_en.pdf
Don's article is right - pro-EU Labour people like me would have preferred the Tory meltdown to come after the referendum, as there's obviously a risk that EU membership will be collateral damage. But it's not a question of choosing between EU membership and winning in 2020; neither is in our power to decide, so we can only argue our case in both situations. I don't think Don is suggesting that we ought to be nice to the Tories until the referendum to avoid rocking the EU boat.
But I agree that we need to do our best to maximise turnout among pro-EU Labour voters, and discourage the view that it's a chance to kick the government. In a way that's easier because of the Tory chaos - if we vote no we can't be sure which Tories we'll turn out to have kicked. Facilitating a switch from Cameron to David Davis is not a sensible Labour voter ambition.
They're PR exercises using a third party brand, and little more.
Ok.
My only concern-and it's a big one-is that the Outers manage to persuade people that it's all about control of immigration. I always have a fear that there are a lot of unseen people who harbour rather primordial thoughts about immigrants
Basically, I lack the fervour of other posters on here about the EU.
I'll be back, but probably only on US election nights, and then after June.
It's the hectoring and rude tone of so many regular posters, on this particular issue, that's getting me.
Of course they are. And we will doubtless have a few more yet.
@LadPolitics: Ladbrokes: 25/1 for George Osborne to be replaced as Chancellor before end of March.
https://t.co/hODGfvMiVk https://t.co/BHJ3MDqLon
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2016/03/australia-post-race-analysis.html
I want the Tories to retain power, we won't do that by being tin eared. We've spent a decade or more getting rid of this label, and George is dragging us backwards.
Also a reminder that Labour exists and is campaigning for Remain, both facts that it would be easy to forget while reading comments here.
However, both OpenEurope and Capital Economics have papers showing net economic benefits to Leaving.
Personally, I think the economics in the short-term make precious little difference, albeit a small fall in sterling and initial uncertainty may stall investment for a few months.
Two things they could and should have put above all else in running a Tory government:
1. Be on the same side as their party and on the right side of history with respect to the EU. They've gone mental. They've gone for the establishment, for the bureaucrat, for the rentier and against middle England. Dave could have been the country and the party's hero by coming back from the EU, saying 'I tried but they aren't interested in deep reform - so we're leaving'. He's utterly split his party and guaranteed a toxic neverendum on the issue.
2. Kill the deficit - but spread the pain absolutely fairly. That includes the wealthy and the retired. Ozzy seems simply not to get this. He's politically autistic when it comes to pasty tax, tax credits, disability benefit etc. That makes him a somewhat competent manager but no leader. GOWNBPM.
If IDS says he wanted one without the other he is
a. a liar
b. an idiot
c. both
That's my fault and my fault alone.
Apparetly IDS used to address Tony Blair as "Sir" during briefings on the Iraq war when he was CON leader
Yes Sir
No Sir
Three bags full Sir
My only political betting failure in the past decade was the last Speaker contest. I'd had some good information that Margaret Beckett was well fancied and the portends were favourable. Sadly this information come from too narrow a base and I failed to undertake due diligence.
The result was an eye-popping loss only mitigated by some nifty footwork as the contest unfolded.
The Fiscally Dry, Socially Liberal, not obsessed by the EU, Gays and Immigration New Tory Party ?
Well, would you like to try and defend the indefensible 24/7/365 with out a break? An MP, some years back was calculated to get 10k pieces of communication each week, compared to a hundred or so back in the 1950's.I suspect that the average tory MP gets around 10k a day, nowadays.