It'll be Trump as the Republican runner. Question is who he runs with (can we have Palin and Christie have a swear off? 90 minutes say what you like debate...)
And though I want Sanders it looks like Shillary for the Democrats. Trump is going to tear her apart
Well he said he wants a governor to handle congress for him. So Kasich, Scott, Christie (but he is very unpopular) are the usual suspects, then Huckabee, and finally Cruz or Ben Carson on the list.
He may well surprise and get someone with government experience like Newt Gingrich, or even Giuliani, or even a fellow businessman like Mark Cuban, or even a fellow celebrity (he wants Oprah but I don't think she will accept), but that is very down the list.
Keep a close look at his friends and those who endorse him or at least who refrain to attack him.
Utah North Dakota Wisconsin Colorado Nebraska Oregon Washington Montana New Mexico South Dakota and just the 1 he already has in Wyoming
and take the nomination on the first ballot, comfortably. He's not likely to take that path, simply for what it implies, but that's the reality of the situation.
I have a sizable position at about 1.8 on no contest convention. 1.33 (PP) on no second round is even safer and some unbound delegates will go for Trump.
I have him winning 0 delegates in Utah, N.Dakota, Colorado, Nebraska, Montana and S.Dakota.
And I have him winning Wisconsin, Oregon and Washington, he could lose N.Mexico but he will still get delegates from there.
Wasn't your central prediction close to mine? If he wins Wisconsin, Oregon and Washington he is fifty up from where I put him, so he must do worse after that in your roadmap comapred to mine.
Well there are 2 questions left, one is how good will Trump do in the WTA per Congressional District and the other is Pennsylvania as to how bound are their delegates to the winner.
So I have him just 14 above the finish line but within a range of 90 bellow to 70 above.
Yet ever since 2010, he has fought with Osborne over repeated attempts to take big lumps out of the welfare budget. Every Budget and Autumn Statement saw the Treasury pirates, knives in their mouths, ready to board the good ship DWP and raid its treasure. Many times, Captain Smithy saw them off as Downing Street’s Admiral of the Fleet hoved into view to sort out yet another skirmish, I know of at least two - and there are rumoured to be four in total - resignation letters IDS had written to Cameron before yesterday, each a protest over cuts plans that had the effect of Osborne and No.10 backing off. The last time was at the height of the tax credits cuts row, when he told a colleague ‘I have it in my pocket’, before managing to get Osborne to abandon moves to taper Universal Credit as his alternative. http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2016/03/19/the-waugh-zone-march-19-2_n_9504448.html
Why oh why did Osborne not understand the risk of him resigning?
Because Osborne, like Cameron, is an arrogant ***t who cares nothing for anyone or anything except his own ambition?
Not really wisihng to have a poke at Cameron, but this is the second time he;s had a right winger resign on a point of principle ( David Davis was the other ). In both cases he was genuinely confused by it. I think the political animal in him cant quite comprehend that people might hold their values higher than their office.
The David Davis resignation was completely unnecessary and changed nothing except to show that Davis was not fit for high office.
Judging by the way Dave has behaved since he came to office I would seriously consider that the Davis resignation stopped Dave simply going along with the Labour plans and so providing no effective opposition to them at all.
You'd like to think questioning someones religion would be a new low but with Trump he has done it many times before.
What amazes me is how much Trump supporters lap up his obviously fake flattery about returning to Utah or buying a farm in Iowa. It seems like they are sort of people who have to live vicariously through others.
He is just following the same approach lots of other performers take...bands that say it great to be in .... our favourite place...the best crowd....and people lap the crap up.
Youd hope people would be more sceptical when choosing a president than enjoying a night out. Its a very strange theatre to have hero worship in. When people admire him for being "so alpha" it just looks very sad.
Tony Blair....Barack Obama....then they are disappointed when they turn out just to be like any other politician.
In a way, Cameron actually benefits from the fact that few people have that hero worship of him, which sets expectations a lot lower for when he doesn't do what he says.
But even with Blair and Obama it seemed more about the movement or the change they would make. Same with Corbyn and Sanders. With Trump it seems like its all about him as a "Great Man".
Trump is selling change...totally unrealistic change...but change none the less. That is why he is beating the other GOP candidates, who are selling effectively more of the same with a few tweaks. In many ways he isn't very much different to Sanders i.e. all the manufacturing jobs back to the US, being a political "outsider", etc, but obviously doing it very differently.
I think David Frum is the man that can explain best why Trump is winning, check him out, he has been warning about this for years.
I don't usually recommend a person, so he's worth it.
But even with Blair and Obama it seemed more about the movement or the change they would make. Same with Corbyn and Sanders. With Trump it seems like its all about him as a "Great Man".
Just by chance there is this puff piece in the Guardian, but putting aside that, there are some interesting titbits..
As I scanned the faces at the bar, one woman looked at me, beaming, raised her margarita and shouted: “My man’s in Afghanistan. He’s coming home!” Barack Obama had never said anything about ending the war in Afghanistan. Indeed, he had pledged to ramp up the US military effort there. But she had not misunderstood him; she had simply projected her hopes on to him and mistaken them for fact.
Obama had that kind of effect on people, back then. Often they weren’t listening too closely to what he was saying, because they loved the way he was saying it.
------------
In many ways Obama’s campaign for the presidency was unremarkable. He had voted with Hillary Clinton in the Senate 90% of the time. He stood on a centrist-Democratic platform, promising healthcare reform and moderate wealth redistribution – effectively the same programme that mainstream Democrats had stood on for a generation. But his rise was meteoric. His story was so compelling, his rhetoric so soaring, his base so passionate – and his victory, when it came, so improbable – that reality was always going to be a buzz kill.
Obama had long been aware that voters saw what they wanted in him. “I serve as a blank screen on which people of vastly different political stripes project their own views,”
You'd like to think questioning someones religion would be a new low but with Trump he has done it many times before.
What amazes me is how much Trump supporters lap up his obviously fake flattery about returning to Utah or buying a farm in Iowa. It seems like they are sort of people who have to live vicariously through others.
He is just following the same approach lots of other performers take...bands that say it great to be in .... our favourite place...the best crowd....and people lap the crap up.
Youd hope people would be more sceptical when choosing a president than enjoying a night out. Its a very strange theatre to have hero worship in. When people admire him for being "so alpha" it just looks very sad.
Tony Blair....Barack Obama....then they are disappointed when they turn out just to be like any other politician.
In a way, Cameron actually benefits from the fact that few people have that hero worship of him, which sets expectations a lot lower for when he doesn't do what he says.
But even with Blair and Obama it seemed more about the movement or the change they would make. Same with Corbyn and Sanders. With Trump it seems like its all about him as a "Great Man".
Trump is selling change...totally unrealistic change...but change none the less. That is why he is beating the other GOP candidates, who are selling effectively more of the same with a few tweaks. In many ways he isn't very much different to Sanders i.e. all the manufacturing jobs back to the US, being a political "outsider", etc, but obviously doing it very differently.
I think David Frum is the man that can explain best why Trump is winning, check him out, he has been warning about this for years.
I don't usually recommend a person, so he's worth it.
Utah North Dakota Wisconsin Colorado Nebraska Oregon Washington Montana New Mexico South Dakota and just the 1 he already has in Wyoming
and take the nomination on the first ballot, comfortably. He's not likely to take that path, simply for what it implies, but that's the reality of the situation.
I have a sizable position at about 1.8 on no contest convention. 1.33 (PP) on no second round is even safer and some unbound delegates will go for Trump.
I have him winning 0 delegates in Utah, N.Dakota, Colorado, Nebraska, Montana and S.Dakota.
And I have him winning Wisconsin, Oregon and Washington, he could lose N.Mexico but he will still get delegates from there.
Wasn't your central prediction close to mine? If he wins Wisconsin, Oregon and Washington he is fifty up from where I put him, so he must do worse after that in your roadmap comapred to mine.
Well there are 2 questions left, one is how good will Trump do in the WTA per Congressional District and the other is Pennsylvania as to how bound are their delegates to the winner.
So I have him just 14 above the finish line but within a range of 90 bellow to 70 above.
I can't see how he could win Wisconsin and not get over the line by just 14.
I didn't realise that Gawker video case was based on a 9 second long clip (according to the BBC summary)...most expensive 9 seconds of video in the history of the media..
If you will explain to me - bearing in mind the areas of the constituencies that would not be in the new CGSR constituency are traditionally strongly Labour, which will probably cost them 5,000 votes at least even before we consider tactical voting and its multifaceted aspects across Welsh speaking Ceredigion and the English parts of west Pembrokeshire - how that is anything other than a safe Conservative seat given the likely small size of the electorate, I will be intrigued to know it.
The fact is the Conservatives are much stronger in Ceredigion than the Liberal Democrats (look at their performance!) are in Pembrokeshire. Labour are not strong now in either part of the seat and have not won in Ceredigion for almost fifty years. Plaid Cymru's West Wales powerbase doesn't reach much beyond Cardigan.
Yes, in the 1970s and 1980s these areas were Liberal strongholds. They are not now. Mark Williams held on by a much narrowed margin in Ceredigion and if he retires (which is not impossible given his age) the Liberal Democrat vote will plummet anyway.
Utah North Dakota Wisconsin Colorado Nebraska Oregon Washington Montana New Mexico South Dakota and just the 1 he already has in Wyoming
and take the nomination on the first ballot, comfortably. He's not likely to take that path, simply for what it implies, but that's the reality of the situation.
I have a sizable position at about 1.8 on no contest convention. 1.33 (PP) on no second round is even safer and some unbound delegates will go for Trump.
I have him winning 0 delegates in Utah, N.Dakota, Colorado, Nebraska, Montana and S.Dakota.
And I have him winning Wisconsin, Oregon and Washington, he could lose N.Mexico but he will still get delegates from there.
Wasn't your central prediction close to mine? If he wins Wisconsin, Oregon and Washington he is fifty up from where I put him, so he must do worse after that in your roadmap comapred to mine.
Well there are 2 questions left, one is how good will Trump do in the WTA per Congressional District and the other is Pennsylvania as to how bound are their delegates to the winner.
So I have him just 14 above the finish line but within a range of 90 bellow to 70 above.
I can't see how he could win Wisconsin and not get over the line by just 14.
That's my medium forecast. As I said I given the uncertainties with the Congressional Districts and the bounding of Pennsylvania delegates I have to give a range.
Of course if Trump does win almost all of the CD in those states he will breach 1300 delegates, it's just that I like to be cautious just in case.
I didn't realise that Gawker video case was based on a 9 second long clip (according to the BBC summary)...most expensive 9 seconds of video in the history of the media..
If it happened to Auntie, they would certainly not be able to say it was a good use of licence fee money at nearly $13 million per second. Even Cleopatra and Titanic combined would come out cheaper!
I didn't realise that Gawker video case was based on a 9 second long clip (according to the BBC summary)...most expensive 9 seconds of video in the history of the media..
9 seconds of sex, the video was 2 minutes as shown.
What's interesting is that the direction that some comemntators think unconsititutionally favoured Hogan against Gawker looks absolutely standard for the UK: that there is a balance between the right of free speech and the intrusion into private lives—instructing the jurors to determine the difference between what “ceases to be the giving of legitimate information to which the public is entitled and becomes a morbid and sensational prying into private lives for its own sake.” (http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/03/18/how-hulk-hogan-bodyslammed-gawker.html)
You'd like to think questioning someones religion would be a new low but with Trump he has done it many times before.
What amazes me is how much Trump supporters lap up his obviously fake flattery about returning to Utah or buying a farm in Iowa. It seems like they are sort of people who have to live vicariously through others.
He is just following the same approach lots of other performers take...bands that say it great to be in .... our favourite place...the best crowd....and people lap the crap up.
Youd hope people would be more sceptical when choosing a president than enjoying a night out. Its a very strange theatre to have hero worship in. When people admire him for being "so alpha" it just looks very sad.
Tony Blair....Barack Obama....then they are disappointed when they turn out just to be like any other politician.
In a way, Cameron actually benefits from the fact that few people have that hero worship of him, which sets expectations a lot lower for when he doesn't do what he says.
But even with Blair and Obama it seemed more about the movement or the change they would make. Same with Corbyn and Sanders. With Trump it seems like its all about him as a "Great Man".
Trump is selling change...totally unrealistic change...but change none the less. That is why he is beating the other GOP candidates, who are selling effectively more of the same with a few tweaks. In many ways he isn't very much different to Sanders i.e. all the manufacturing jobs back to the US, being a political "outsider", etc, but obviously doing it very differently.
I think David Frum is the man that can explain best why Trump is winning, check him out, he has been warning about this for years.
I don't usually recommend a person, so he's worth it.
I didn't realise that Gawker video case was based on a 9 second long clip (according to the BBC summary)...most expensive 9 seconds of video in the history of the media..
9 seconds of sex, the video was 2 minutes as shown.
Arh ok...still bloody expensive "short", with a disproportionate amount of filler by the sounds of it... ;-)
Utah North Dakota Wisconsin Colorado Nebraska Oregon Washington Montana New Mexico South Dakota and just the 1 he already has in Wyoming
and take the nomination on the first ballot, comfortably. He's not likely to take that path, simply for what it implies, but that's the reality of the situation.
I have a sizable position at about 1.8 on no contest convention. 1.33 (PP) on no second round is even safer and some unbound delegates will go for Trump.
I have him winning 0 delegates in Utah, N.Dakota, Colorado, Nebraska, Montana and S.Dakota.
And I have him winning Wisconsin, Oregon and Washington, he could lose N.Mexico but he will still get delegates from there.
Wasn't your central prediction close to mine? If he wins Wisconsin, Oregon and Washington he is fifty up from where I put him, so he must do worse after that in your roadmap comapred to mine.
Well there are 2 questions left, one is how good will Trump do in the WTA per Congressional District and the other is Pennsylvania as to how bound are their delegates to the winner.
So I have him just 14 above the finish line but within a range of 90 bellow to 70 above.
I can't see how he could win Wisconsin and not get over the line by just 14.
That's my medium forecast. As I said I given the uncertainties with the Congressional Districts and the bounding of Pennsylvania delegates I have to give a range.
Of course if Trump does win almost all of the CD in those states he will breach 1300 delegates, it's just that I like to be cautious just in case.
If you think he's going to win the state, he's bound to win at least half of the CDs. 100 delegates in CA and 40 in PA is really the floor, on current trends.
I didn't realise that Gawker video case was based on a 9 second long clip (according to the BBC summary)...most expensive 9 seconds of video in the history of the media..
You'd like to think questioning someones religion would be a new low but with Trump he has done it many times before.
What amazes me is how much Trump supporters lap up his obviously fake flattery about returning to Utah or buying a farm in Iowa. It seems like they are sort of people who have to live vicariously through others.
He is just following the same approach lots of other performers take...bands that say it great to be in .... our favourite place...the best crowd....and people lap the crap up.
Youd hope people would be more sceptical when choosing a president than enjoying a night out. Its a very strange theatre to have hero worship in. When people admire him for being "so alpha" it just looks very sad.
Tony Blair....Barack Obama....then they are disappointed when they turn out just to be like any other politician.
In a way, Cameron actually benefits from the fact that few people have that hero worship of him, which sets expectations a lot lower for when he doesn't do what he says.
But even with Blair and Obama it seemed more about the movement or the change they would make. Same with Corbyn and Sanders. With Trump it seems like its all about him as a "Great Man".
Trump is selling change...totally unrealistic change...but change none the less. That is why he is beating the other GOP candidates, who are selling effectively more of the same with a few tweaks. In many ways he isn't very much different to Sanders i.e. all the manufacturing jobs back to the US, being a political "outsider", etc, but obviously doing it very differently.
I think David Frum is the man that can explain best why Trump is winning, check him out, he has been warning about this for years.
I don't usually recommend a person, so he's worth it.
David Frum wrote and still defends the Axis of Evil phrase (including the addition of Iran) from that Bush speech.
David Frum endorsed Mitt Romney in the basis that he wouldn't actually enact any of the policies he was campaigning on. Oh and also the Republican congress would nuke America if Obama remained president.
He is at times a really good writer but when hebfails he fails big.
"Donald Trump will host a group of nearly two dozen top Republicans on Monday afternoon for an off-the-record gathering that his allies hope will improve his relationship with the congressional GOP and the party's Washington establishment, according to two attendees."
Well, he certainly opened the door for Tories to agree with the general principle Labour have arguing for for ages, that is the cuts are not necessary.
I had forgotten about Dafis winning in 1992 as a effectively a joint Plaid & Green candidate. When the Ceredigion & Pembroke North was created in 1983 Labour voters switched tactically to the LibDems and I suspect that would happen again. I would expect LibDems to win.
As I posted the other day , there are several people on the Vote2012 website trying to draw up proposals for the 29 new Welsh constituencies . Whether they start in the North and work South or South and work North they all end up with a mess and a couple of constituencies Y Gweddillion - and left over bits" The plus/minus 5% limit is too tight for 29 sensible constituencies to be drawn up . .
I'm fully in favour of equalising constituency sizes, but in Wales it seems impossible without some very odd contortions. We're going to end up wth constituencies that contain bits of several towns to meet the +/-5% rule.
Yes the problem is that if say you start off in Cardiff/Glamorgan and have 5 sensible constituencies they are all at the bottom of the Plus/Minus 5% limit and the remaining 24 Welsh constituencies have to meet a tighter limit than plus//minus 5% .
They'll all be much closer than the current massively unbalanced status quo though.
The problem with Wales is that there are two competing desires: near identical sized constituencies, and constituencies that have some commonality. We could get an algorithm to produce 600 absolutely identically sized constituencies, but it would result in them bearing no relation to existing entities such as town, councils, counties and the like.
Yes we can have 600 constituencies numbered 1-600 . Every elector is randomly put into 1 wherever they live . 600 equal sized constituencies and most GEs would have one party winning all 600 of them with FPTP .
No they would not! Standard deviation would prevent that.
A party with a lead of around 6% would win all 600 seats
I'd like to see the maths on that. But it would provide both stable government and an incentive on all parties to come first in the vote. Still better than PR.
A result giving a party 100% of the seats for perhaps 40% of the vote would be a travesty of democracy .
On topic, this stuff about "Labour will be failing if they lose councillors" is utter bollocks.
The comparison doesn't work because comparing 2016, the first year of the electoral cycle, is not analogous to 2012 (when this year's council seats were last up, but which was the second year of that electoral cycle). Everyone knows that the government always does worse when they get to Year 2 or Year 3 of the electoral cycle (when the mid-term blues are peaking) than they do just a year after the general election when there's still a bit of a honeymoon effect. That's never usually been an issue, since 4-year election cycles meant the councillors coming up for election and the point since the most recent general election usually coincided - but fixed-term 5-year parliaments throw it out of sync in terms of the council elections schedule.
The real point of comparison will be with the national vote shares compared to 2011, when the Tories led Labour by 1%. Until recently, it looked like Corbyn was going to fall well short even of that -- if he had lost by 7-8%, then that really would have been unprecedented for an Opposition, and the daggers would've been out. OTOH, it now seems he might have a chance of matching or maybe even exceeding Miliband's first local-elections outing in terms of voteshare, in which case members would probably regard it as acceptable; the councillor losses compared to a different year in the electoral cycle will be irrelevant eitherway.
I'm becoming more and more baffled by Osborne's complete misfire this week, that he thought politically he could get away with it.
Even the worst bullies in the school playground know the kids in wheelchairs are off-limits.
Sheer Hubris. Like Brown before him, as master of an all-powerful Treasury pushing for the top and an economicperformance great on paper but awful in reality, he genuinely believed he could do no wrong. Didn't matter that he kept missing his own targets or that his own numbers from only November were already woefully wrong. Just keep saying long term economic plan, bugger the numbers around some more so that fiction + maybe = pre-election giveaway and all is fine.
The people affected by the policies you say? What people...?
If you will explain to me - bearing in mind the areas of the constituencies that would not be in the new CGSR constituency are traditionally strongly Labour, which will probably cost them 5,000 votes at least even before we consider tactical voting and its multifaceted aspects across Welsh speaking Ceredigion and the English parts of west Pembrokeshire - how that is anything other than a safe Conservative seat given the likely small size of the electorate, I will be intrigued to know it.
The fact is the Conservatives are much stronger in Ceredigion than the Liberal Democrats (look at their performance!) are in Pembrokeshire. Labour are not strong now in either part of the seat and have not won in Ceredigion for almost fifty years. Plaid Cymru's West Wales powerbase doesn't reach much beyond Cardigan.
Yes, in the 1970s and 1980s these areas were Liberal strongholds. They are not now. Mark Williams held on by a much narrowed margin in Ceredigion and if he retires (which is not impossible given his age) the Liberal Democrat vote will plummet anyway.
Mark Williams beat the Tory by over 9000 votes in the most disastrous of LibDem years! Most of Preseli - in terms of electorate - would not form part of the Pembroke North & Ceredigion seat but would be combined with South Pembrokeshire as was the case 1983 - 1997. North Pembroke is quite similar to Ceredigion in being sparsely populated and predominantly Welsh speaking . It is not - and never has been particularly Tory - far less so than rural South Pembrokeshire. In 2015 an Independent candidate - a local NHS consultant polled 3500 votes campaigning on a local Hospital issue, and that may have squeezed the LibDems somewhat.Less than 20000 electors would be moved from Preseli into the new seat - of whom fewer than 15000 would be likely to vote. The Tories would be unlikely to win 40% of those additional voters - ie 6000- far below what they would need to oust Williams. I invite you to look at the Tory vote in this seat in their very good years of 1983 - 1992 inclusive. Where are their additional votes now going to come from?
Well, an interesting 24 hours or so. The IDS resignation letter is hugely damaging and perhaps as personally cutting as Howe's resignation speech in the Commons twenty-five years ago as it cuts to the core of Cameron's compassionate conservatism and mocks the very quintessentially Cameronesque "we're all in this together".
The Downing Street reaction of sorrow more than anger is the only response - Fallon was wheeled out to say IDS had agreed the Budget at that morning's Cabinet so why has he now resigned ? That seems to be the political response but ignores the salient point that though Osborne won the battle he has clearly lost the war.
I suspect this is far from some great game-changer though it was noticeable how quick some of the Cameron loyalists came on here to trash IDS's ministerial reputation. My recollection of his working relationship with Steve Webb was one of harmony and I wonder if it was the undoing of that which has provoked the breakdown with the Treasury.
Osborne runs the Government and the Conservative Party - Cameron is a prisoner in No.10 whose sole function is to be the nice face of the Government. Once the EU referendum is done, I suspect the timetable for the proposed handover to Osborne will become clearer and let's not forget many Cabinet Ministers and Ministers of State are in post because of Osborne and won't oppose him.
Well, an interesting 24 hours or so. The IDS resignation letter is hugely damaging and perhaps as personally cutting as Howe's resignation speech in the Commons twenty-five years ago as it cuts to the core of Cameron's compassionate conservatism and mocks the very quintessentially Cameronesque "we're all in this together".
The Downing Street reaction of sorrow more than anger is the only response - Fallon was wheeled out to say IDS had agreed the Budget at that morning's Cabinet so why has he now resigned ? That seems to be the political response but ignores the salient point that though Osborne won the battle he has clearly lost the war.
I suspect this is far from some great game-changer though it was noticeable how quick some of the Cameron loyalists came on here to trash IDS's ministerial reputation. My recollection of his working relationship with Steve Webb was one of harmony and I wonder if it was the undoing of that which has provoked the breakdown with the Treasury.
Osborne runs the Government and the Conservative Party - Cameron is a prisoner in No.10 whose sole function is to be the nice face of the Government. Once the EU referendum is done, I suspect the timetable for the proposed handover to Osborne will become clearer and let's not forget many Cabinet Ministers and Ministers of State are in post because of Osborne and won't oppose him.
That is something that has crossed my mind, will IDS do a resignation speech in parliament?
On matters equine, a wonderful week at Cheltenham with some astonishing performances by the winners.
Questions aplenty - does Altior run in the Champion Hurdle next year or will he go over fences ? I'm almost tempted to ask the same for both Yanworth and Yorkhill who may be fighting out the RSA Chase next year or the World Hurdle. Assuming Faugheen returns from injury, where's the opposition to him regaining the title ?
The Champion Chase is presumably Douvan's for the taking while the 2017 Gold Cup looks a race to savour with the likes of Coneygree, Vautour and Thistlecrack taking on Don Cossack from this year and is Blaklion a future Grand National winner ?
As the song says, there are more questions than answers..
Well, he certainly opened the door for Tories to agree with the general principle Labour have arguing for for ages, that is the cuts are not necessary.
Indeed, IDS said publicly something that many have been suspecting for years, that the government is simply doing this not for the good of the country but to punish the public.
Well, he certainly opened the door for Tories to agree with the general principle Labour have arguing for for ages, that is the cuts are not necessary.
Indeed, IDS said publicly something that many have been suspecting for years, that the government is simply doing this not for the good of the country but to punish the public.
I'm not *quite* sure he went that far. The accusation is that this government sees reducing spending on the disadvantaged as a priority in order to transfer wealth to its client vote of pensioners and wealthier middle classes. That the language of reforming welfare in order to help the disadvantaged to have better long term prospects (albeit at the cost of some short term pain) is really a smokescreen for cost cutting because those people simply don't deserve it. And that deficit reduction is a luxury not a necessity because savings made on the backs of the poorest can be recycled to the richest.
Well, an interesting 24 hours or so. The IDS resignation letter is hugely damaging and perhaps as personally cutting as Howe's resignation speech in the Commons twenty-five years ago as it cuts to the core of Cameron's compassionate conservatism and mocks the very quintessentially Cameronesque "we're all in this together".
The Downing Street reaction of sorrow more than anger is the only response - Fallon was wheeled out to say IDS had agreed the Budget at that morning's Cabinet so why has he now resigned ? That seems to be the political response but ignores the salient point that though Osborne won the battle he has clearly lost the war.
I suspect this is far from some great game-changer though it was noticeable how quick some of the Cameron loyalists came on here to trash IDS's ministerial reputation. My recollection of his working relationship with Steve Webb was one of harmony and I wonder if it was the undoing of that which has provoked the breakdown with the Treasury.
Osborne runs the Government and the Conservative Party - Cameron is a prisoner in No.10 whose sole function is to be the nice face of the Government. Once the EU referendum is done, I suspect the timetable for the proposed handover to Osborne will become clearer and let's not forget many Cabinet Ministers and Ministers of State are in post because of Osborne and won't oppose him.
A thoughtful piece, Mr. Stoge, but I think you are wrong about a proposed handover to Osborne. He might want that, Cameron might want that, many of Osborne's current client MPs might want that, but the membership do not, I think, want that. Furthermore, once an alternative candidate(s) become apparent and the scale of hostility to Osborne is evident then the number of recipients of hi patronage may well change camps.
As Sir Humphrey once correctly noted, "Gratitude in politics is the lively expression of anticipated favours."
Mark Williams beat the Tory by over 9000 votes in the most disastrous of LibDem years! Most of Preseli - in terms of electorate - would not form part of the Pembroke North & Ceredigion seat but would be combined with South Pembrokeshire as was the case 1983 - 1997. North Pembroke is quite similar to Ceredigion in being sparsely populated and predominantly Welsh speaking . It is not - and never has been particularly Tory - far less so than rural South Pembrokeshire. In 2015 an Independent candidate - a local NHS consultant polled 3500 votes campaigning on a local Hospital issue, and that may have squeezed the LibDems somewhat.Less than 20000 electors would be moved from Preseli into the new seat - of whom fewer than 15000 would be likely to vote. The Tories would be unlikely to win 40% of those additional voters - ie 6000- far below what they would need to oust Williams. I invite you to look at the Tory vote in this seat in their very good years of 1983 - 1992 inclusive. Where are their additional votes now going to come from?
Justin - I think you need a trip home. I was there last year and the demography of the area has changed massively from my first visit 25 years ago. It is Labour who will suffer from the changes. The Tories will be unaffected.
As for this '9000' votes you keep repeating, may I gently point out that Crabb beat the Liberal Democrats by the small matter of 16000 votes?
Given your very entrenched position in this, I don't suppose I will convince you by things like facts, but it would be a big surprise if the Tories lost it. It is not Kensington, but nor is it Gwyr.
Well, he certainly opened the door for Tories to agree with the general principle Labour have arguing for for ages, that is the cuts are not necessary.
Indeed, IDS said publicly something that many have been suspecting for years, that the government is simply doing this not for the good of the country but to punish the public.
I'm not *quite* sure he went that far. The accusation is that this government sees reducing spending on the disadvantaged as a priority in order to transfer wealth to its client vote of pensioners and wealthier middle classes. That the language of reforming welfare in order to help the disadvantaged to have better long term prospects (albeit at the cost of some short term pain) is really a smokescreen for cost cutting because those people simply don't deserve it. And that deficit reduction is a luxury not a necessity because savings made on the backs of the poorest can be recycled to the richest.
Seconded - that's exactly how I see all of this. For what it's worth I think deficit reduction is important even if Osborne doesn't.
Yes, in the 1970s and 1980s these areas were Liberal strongholds. They are not now. Mark Williams held on by a much narrowed margin in Ceredigion and if he retires (which is not impossible given his age) the Liberal Democrat vote will plummet anyway.
Mark Williams beat the Tory by over 9000 votes in the most disastrous of LibDem years! Most of Preseli - in terms of electorate - would not form part of the Pembroke North & Ceredigion seat but would be combined with South Pembrokeshire as was the case 1983 - 1997. North Pembroke is quite similar to Ceredigion in being sparsely populated and predominantly Welsh speaking . It is not - and never has been particularly Tory - far less so than rural South Pembrokeshire. In 2015 an Independent candidate - a local NHS consultant polled 3500 votes campaigning on a local Hospital issue, and that may have squeezed the LibDems somewhat.Less than 20000 electors would be moved from Preseli into the new seat - of whom fewer than 15000 would be likely to vote. The Tories would be unlikely to win 40% of those additional voters - ie 6000- far below what they would need to oust Williams. I invite you to look at the Tory vote in this seat in their very good years of 1983 - 1992 inclusive. Where are their additional votes now going to come from?
Sorry to butt into a private conversation, but i live in Preseli and have campaigned for the labour candidate in the last 3 general elections. The only town of any size tagged onto Ceredigion is Fishguard and that is primarily labour. Newport, St Dogmaels have decent Labour support. The rest is very rural and is Tory/Plaid. Liberals have been losing ground badly over the last 11years. I cannot see, unless there is a dramatic shift how the Tories will get anywhere in the newlook constituency. Unless Labour pick up a lot pf votes in Aberystwyth and Lapmeter, i can only see a two horse race between Libs and Plaid and id Williams does retire i can see Plaid coming through, but any election is 4 years off, so early days. A good pointer will be Crabbe's intentions. I would not be surprised, given his elevation, that he looks for a safe S of England seat. He has certainly brushed off his expenses issues a few years back!
Mark Williams beat the Tory by over 9000 votes in the most disastrous of LibDem years! Most of Preseli - in terms of electorate - would not form part of the Pembroke North & Ceredigion seat but would be combined with South Pembrokeshire as was the case 1983 - 1997. North Pembroke is quite similar to Ceredigion in being sparsely populated and predominantly Welsh speaking . It is not - and never has been particularly Tory - far less so than rural South Pembrokeshire. In 2015 an Independent candidate - a local NHS consultant polled 3500 votes campaigning on a local Hospital issue, and that may have squeezed the LibDems somewhat.Less than 20000 electors would be moved from Preseli into the new seat - of whom fewer than 15000 would be likely to vote. The Tories would be unlikely to win 40% of those additional voters - ie 6000- far below what they would need to oust Williams. I invite you to look at the Tory vote in this seat in their very good years of 1983 - 1992 inclusive. Where are their additional votes now going to come from?
Justin - I think you need a trip home. I was there last year and the demography of the area has changed massively from my first visit 25 years ago. It is Labour who will suffer from the changes. The Tories will be unaffected.
As for this '9000' votes you keep repeating, may I gently point out that Crabb beat the Liberal Democrats by the small matter of 16000 votes?
Given your very entrenched position in this, I don't suppose I will convince you by things like facts, but it would be a big surprise if the Tories lost it. It is not Kensington, but nor is it Gwyr.
I visit Pembrokeshire regularly. You seem to miss the point that most of the Preseli seat will NOT be combined with Ceredigion - as I mentioned earlier fewer than 20000 of its electors would be transferred which makes your reference to 16000 votes pretty irrelevant.How big was Crabb's lead over the LibDems in North Pembrokeshire? We cannot know the precise figure but I suggest that it was less than 4000 . That would still have given Williams a majority of 5000+ in the new seat.
"... A good pointer will be Crabbe's intentions. I would not be surprised, given his elevation, that he looks for a safe S of England seat..."
I would hope that if he tried that the local Conservative Party would tell him to piss off. He has a seat let him fight for it. If he loses then let him seek selection at the following GE or a by-election in the interim. The days when ministers were able to do the chicken run and grab a safe seat just because they are ministers ought to be long behind us.
Well, he certainly opened the door for Tories to agree with the general principle Labour have arguing for for ages, that is the cuts are not necessary.
Indeed, IDS said publicly something that many have been suspecting for years, that the government is simply doing this not for the good of the country but to punish the public.
I'm not *quite* sure he went that far. The accusation is that this government sees reducing spending on the disadvantaged as a priority in order to transfer wealth to its client vote of pensioners and wealthier middle classes. That the language of reforming welfare in order to help the disadvantaged to have better long term prospects (albeit at the cost of some short term pain) is really a smokescreen for cost cutting because those people simply don't deserve it. And that deficit reduction is a luxury not a necessity because savings made on the backs of the poorest can be recycled to the richest.
Seconded - that's exactly how I see all of this. For what it's worth I think deficit reduction is important even if Osborne doesn't.
I think Osborne believes deficit reduction matters, but he believes having a Tory government matters more. Provided he can continue to argue that a) the deficit matters and b) he's better placed to address it than those who "caused" it then he's winning the electability battle; actually reducing it is a very secondary consideration unless it impacts that perception. In the face of the current supine press, there's not much risk there. So if he has a choice between reducing the deficit and shoring up a few more votes with appropriate pork barrels then that's an easy choice.
Amber Rudd's takes part in an hour of virtue signalling for one hour tonight. She will be switching off her lights. However, this coincides with the surge in demand caused by the France England rugby match.
Is it possible for an Energy Minister to be in touch with reality?
Yes, in the 1970s and 1980s these areas were Liberal strongholds. They are not now. Mark Williams held on by a much narrowed margin in Ceredigion and if he retires (which is not impossible given his age) the Liberal Democrat vote will plummet anyway.
Mark Williams beat the Tory by over 9000 votes in the most disastrous of LibDem years! Most of Preseli - in terms of electorate - would not form part of the Pembroke North & Ceredigion seat but would be combined with South Pembrokeshire as was the case 1983 - 1997. North Pembroke is quite similar to Ceredigion in being sparsely populated and predominantly Welsh speaking . It is not - and never has been particularly Tory - far less so than rural South Pembrokeshire. In 2015 an Independent candidate - a local NHS consultant polled 3500 votes campaigning on a local Hospital issue, and that may have squeezed the LibDems somewhat.Less than 20000 electors would be moved from Preseli into the new seat - of whom fewer than 15000 would be likely to vote. The Tories would be unlikely to win 40% of those additional voters - ie 6000- far below what they would need to oust Williams. I invite you to look at the Tory vote in this seat in their very good years of 1983 - 1992 inclusive. Where are their additional votes now going to come from?
Sorry to butt into a private conversation, but i live in Preseli and have campaigned for the labour candidate in the last 3 general elections. The only town of any size tagged onto Ceredigion is Fishguard and that is primarily labour. Newport, St Dogmaels have decent Labour support. The rest is very rural and is Tory/Plaid. Liberals have been losing ground badly over the last 11years. I cannot see, unless there is a dramatic shift how the Tories will get anywhere in the newlook constituency. Unless Labour pick up a lot pf votes in Aberystwyth and Lapmeter, i can only see a two horse race between Libs and Plaid and id Williams does retire i can see Plaid coming through, but any election is 4 years off, so early days. A good pointer will be Crabbe's intentions. I would not be surprised, given his elevation, that he looks for a safe S of England seat. He has certainly brushed off his expenses issues a few years back!
I agree . Labour can also revisit his 'flipping' history if necessary too! I would repeat the point though that Welsh speaking rural North Pembrokeshire has always been less Tory than rural English speaking South Pembrokeshire.
Amber Rudd's takes part in an hour of virtue signalling for one hour tonight. She will be switching off her lights. However, this coincides with the surge in demand caused by the France England rugby match.
Is it possible for an Energy Minister to be in touch with reality?
Could this be a record TV audience for a rugby match? Prime time Saturday night on BBC1 with England going for a grand slam hasn't happened in a long time.
The audience that got up at 6am in 2003 must have been pretty big though.
Well, he certainly opened the door for Tories to agree with the general principle Labour have arguing for for ages, that is the cuts are not necessary.
Indeed, IDS said publicly something that many have been suspecting for years, that the government is simply doing this not for the good of the country but to punish the public.
I'm not *quite* sure he went that far. The accusation is that this government sees reducing spending on the disadvantaged as a priority in order to transfer wealth to its client vote of pensioners and wealthier middle classes. That the language of reforming welfare in order to help the disadvantaged to have better long term prospects (albeit at the cost of some short term pain) is really a smokescreen for cost cutting because those people simply don't deserve it. And that deficit reduction is a luxury not a necessity because savings made on the backs of the poorest can be recycled to the richest.
Seconded - that's exactly how I see all of this. For what it's worth I think deficit reduction is important even if Osborne doesn't.
I think Osborne believes deficit reduction matters, but he believes having a Tory government matters more. Provided he can continue to argue that a) the deficit matters and b) he's better placed to address it than those who "caused" it then he's winning the electability battle; actually reducing it is a very secondary consideration unless it impacts that perception. In the face of the current supine press, there's not much risk there. So if he has a choice between reducing the deficit and shoring up a few more votes with appropriate pork barrels then that's an easy choice.
I don't think you're arguing this but it sounds like "the only alternative is Labour so as someone who wants to reduce the deficit I should accept what Osborne is offering as it is certainly better than the alternative".
Well maybe I should view it like this, but I stopped voting Tory in 2011 because I suspected the Tories weren't serious about doing what was right and necessary and only interested in securing their own political futures. Everything that has happened since May 7 last year has confirmed that I was right. Quite frankly I really wouldn't care if Labour won the next election.
According to the October jobs report, more than 92 million Americans — 37% of the civilian population aged 16 and over — are neither employed nor unemployed, but fall in the category of “not in the labor force.”
Amber Rudd's takes part in an hour of virtue signalling for one hour tonight. She will be switching off her lights. However, this coincides with the surge in demand caused by the France England rugby match.
Is it possible for an Energy Minister to be in touch with reality?
Could this be a record TV audience for a rugby match? Prime time Saturday night on BBC1 with England going for a grand slam hasn't happened in a long time.
The audience that got up at 6am in 2003 must have been pretty big though.
I think the 2007 World Cup Final holds the audience record. As England were cheated out by an incompetent TMO.
According to the October jobs report, more than 92 million Americans — 37% of the civilian population aged 16 and over — are neither employed nor unemployed, but fall in the category of “not in the labor force.”
Amber Rudd's takes part in an hour of virtue signalling for one hour tonight. She will be switching off her lights. However, this coincides with the surge in demand caused by the France England rugby match.
Is it possible for an Energy Minister to be in touch with reality?
Could this be a record TV audience for a rugby match? Prime time Saturday night on BBC1 with England going for a grand slam hasn't happened in a long time.
The audience that got up at 6am in 2003 must have been pretty big though.
I think the 2007 World Cup Final holds the audience record. As England were cheated out by an incompetent TMO.
Match was a Saturday night, around 8pm on ITV.
You're probably right. For some reason that match had slipped my mind!
Nigel is giving England a free pass, they'll win. The Cole try was reffing garbage.
Nah.
England aren't the finished article. They deserve to win the 6 Nations, they are clearly the best team, but I suspect a Slam is just beyond them, at the mo. Not quite good enough.
This is potentially a GREAT England team in the making, however.
Nigel is giving England a free pass, they'll win. The Cole try was reffing garbage.
Nah.
England aren't the finished article. They deserve to win the 6 Nations, they are clearly the best team, but I suspect a Slam is just beyond them, at the mo. Not quite good enough.
This is potentially a GREAT England team in the making, however.
You'd like to think questioning someones religion would be a new low but with Trump he has done it many times before.
What amazes me is how much Trump supporters lap up his obviously fake flattery about returning to Utah or buying a farm in Iowa. It seems like they are sort of people who have to live vicariously through others.
He is just following the same approach lots of other performers take...bands that say it great to be in .... our favourite place...the best crowd....and people lap the crap up.
Youd hope people would be more sceptical when choosing a president than enjoying a night out. Its a very strange theatre to have hero worship in. When people admire him for being "so alpha" it just looks very sad.
Tony Blair....Barack Obama....then they are disappointed when they turn out just to be like any other politician.
In a way, Cameron actually benefits from the fact that few people have that hero worship of him...
Nigel is giving England a free pass, they'll win. The Cole try was reffing garbage.
What? Because of Vinupola being alongside him? The overhead view was the clincher - side by side.
Side by side doesnt matter - if you move or stand anywhere to block a tackle that's a penalty offence 10.1(c)
Nigel got it arrogantly wrong. He has form for screwing the French - in 2008 and 09 vs Ireland he went some absurd number of minutes between awarding a penalty against Ireland.
IDS served our country in the armed forces. Ros Altman worked for Chase Manhattan. I know who I trust more.
The language used by Tory ministers against IDS is up there with the language used against Mark Reckless. Really not on.
I think people seem to get very precious about such things. It's well established that a certain amount of irrational invective will occur during the hurly burly of political debate, in fact it is one reason such speech gets enhanced protection so I understand, and IDS and Reckless both seriously undermined their party leadership in different ways - one may think they were right to do so, or honourable to do so, but the other side getting pissy in such a scenario is to be expected, particularly as resignations often include and did include some major criticisms (again, justified or not) and not exactly something to get faint with horror about.
If it is unfair IDS can always respond in kind, or take the high road.
If the boundary changes go through I would expect Stephen Crabb to fight it out with Simon Hart for the residual Pembrokeshire seat.
And Hart to be the gallant loser in Caerfyrddin a Llanelli? Well, it's possible - Crabb is a Haverfordwest boy after all - but I still think it unlikely. I think we'll have to agree to differ.
According to the October jobs report, more than 92 million Americans — 37% of the civilian population aged 16 and over — are neither employed nor unemployed, but fall in the category of “not in the labor force.”
IDS served our country in the armed forces. Ros Altman worked for Chase Manhattan. I know who I trust more.
The language used by Tory ministers against IDS is up there with the language used against Mark Reckless. Really not on.
I think people seem to get very precious about such things. It's well established that a certain amount of irrational invective will occur during the hurly burly of political debate, in fact it is one reason such speech gets enhanced protection so I understand, and IDS and Reckless both seriously undermined their party leadership in different ways - one may think they were right to do so, or honourable to do so, but the other side getting pissy in such a scenario is to be expected, particularly as resignations often include and did include some major criticisms (again, justified or not) and not exactly something to get faint with horror about.
If it is unfair IDS can always respond in kind, or take the high road.
It's private grief really, I should stay out of it. I sussed Osborne out in 2011 and I suspect IDS has only stayed as long as he did because he thought he was still able to make a difference and to hopefully see universal credit through.
When IDS was leader rumours abounded that he was not a very nice man. There was also the trouble he caused gentleman John and now this. Perhaps not a man to have banked much affection.
IDS served our country in the armed forces. Ros Altman worked for Chase Manhattan. I know who I trust more.
Who knows more about how to run a finance based dept though?
Given what happened in 2008 I'd go for IDS.
Given what happened in the early years of this century and what we now know about how banks like Chase Manhattan worked I'd trust my cat to be more honest and competent than any banker.
IDS is on the Marr show tomorrow, this could be a barn burner
I rarely rise early enough to catch Marr, but I am curious what angle he will take - give IDS plenty of time to rattle through all his dissatisfactions, or really press him on why now, dissect how much it is principle etc.
Comments
So Kasich, Scott, Christie (but he is very unpopular) are the usual suspects, then Huckabee, and finally Cruz or Ben Carson on the list.
He may well surprise and get someone with government experience like Newt Gingrich, or even Giuliani, or even a fellow businessman like Mark Cuban, or even a fellow celebrity (he wants Oprah but I don't think she will accept), but that is very down the list.
Keep a close look at his friends and those who endorse him or at least who refrain to attack him.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZL5dVEYLFjQ
So I have him just 14 above the finish line but within a range of 90 bellow to 70 above.
I don't usually recommend a person, so he's worth it.
Last word , I promise, as I have no intention of turning this into the fabled AV thread on speed!
Seat - Ceredigion - Preseli - Total (2015)
Cons - 4,123 - 16,383 - 20,506
Lab - 3,615 -11,414 - 15,019
LD - 13,414 -780 (rpt 780!) - 14,194
PC - 10,347 - 2,518 -12,862
If you will explain to me - bearing in mind the areas of the constituencies that would not be in the new CGSR constituency are traditionally strongly Labour, which will probably cost them 5,000 votes at least even before we consider tactical voting and its multifaceted aspects across Welsh speaking Ceredigion and the English parts of west Pembrokeshire - how that is anything other than a safe Conservative seat given the likely small size of the electorate, I will be intrigued to know it.
The fact is the Conservatives are much stronger in Ceredigion than the Liberal Democrats (look at their performance!) are in Pembrokeshire. Labour are not strong now in either part of the seat and have not won in Ceredigion for almost fifty years. Plaid Cymru's West Wales powerbase doesn't reach much beyond Cardigan.
Yes, in the 1970s and 1980s these areas were Liberal strongholds. They are not now. Mark Williams held on by a much narrowed margin in Ceredigion and if he retires (which is not impossible given his age) the Liberal Democrat vote will plummet anyway.
As I said I given the uncertainties with the Congressional Districts and the bounding of Pennsylvania delegates I have to give a range.
Of course if Trump does win almost all of the CD in those states he will breach 1300 delegates, it's just that I like to be cautious just in case.
What's interesting is that the direction that some comemntators think unconsititutionally favoured Hogan against Gawker looks absolutely standard for the UK: that there is a balance between the right of free speech and the intrusion into private lives—instructing the jurors to determine the difference between what “ceases to be the giving of legitimate information to which the public is entitled and becomes a morbid and sensational prying into private lives for its own sake.” (http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/03/18/how-hulk-hogan-bodyslammed-gawker.html)
That court case was a lot of fun, especially with witnesses called Bubba The Love Sponge Clem, or Hogan talking under oath about penis size:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=izYE04Zko5c
David Frum endorsed Mitt Romney in the basis that he wouldn't actually enact any of the policies he was campaigning on. Oh and also the Republican congress would nuke America if Obama remained president.
He is at times a really good writer but when hebfails he fails big.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2016/03/19/trump-to-huddle-with-top-republicans-ahead-of-aipac-speech/
"Donald Trump will host a group of nearly two dozen top Republicans on Monday afternoon for an off-the-record gathering that his allies hope will improve his relationship with the congressional GOP and the party's Washington establishment, according to two attendees."
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/whod-have-thought-iain-duncan-smith-would-become-jeremy-corbyns-unofficial-cheerleader-a6941051.html
Even the worst bullies in the school playground know the kids in wheelchairs are off-limits.
The comparison doesn't work because comparing 2016, the first year of the electoral cycle, is not analogous to 2012 (when this year's council seats were last up, but which was the second year of that electoral cycle). Everyone knows that the government always does worse when they get to Year 2 or Year 3 of the electoral cycle (when the mid-term blues are peaking) than they do just a year after the general election when there's still a bit of a honeymoon effect. That's never usually been an issue, since 4-year election cycles meant the councillors coming up for election and the point since the most recent general election usually coincided - but fixed-term 5-year parliaments throw it out of sync in terms of the council elections schedule.
The real point of comparison will be with the national vote shares compared to 2011, when the Tories led Labour by 1%. Until recently, it looked like Corbyn was going to fall well short even of that -- if he had lost by 7-8%, then that really would have been unprecedented for an Opposition, and the daggers would've been out. OTOH, it now seems he might have a chance of matching or maybe even exceeding Miliband's first local-elections outing in terms of voteshare, in which case members would probably regard it as acceptable; the councillor losses compared to a different year in the electoral cycle will be irrelevant eitherway.
The people affected by the policies you say? What people...?
Well, an interesting 24 hours or so. The IDS resignation letter is hugely damaging and perhaps as personally cutting as Howe's resignation speech in the Commons twenty-five years ago as it cuts to the core of Cameron's compassionate conservatism and mocks the very quintessentially Cameronesque "we're all in this together".
The Downing Street reaction of sorrow more than anger is the only response - Fallon was wheeled out to say IDS had agreed the Budget at that morning's Cabinet so why has he now resigned ? That seems to be the political response but ignores the salient point that though Osborne won the battle he has clearly lost the war.
I suspect this is far from some great game-changer though it was noticeable how quick some of the Cameron loyalists came on here to trash IDS's ministerial reputation. My recollection of his working relationship with Steve Webb was one of harmony and I wonder if it was the undoing of that which has provoked the breakdown with the Treasury.
Osborne runs the Government and the Conservative Party - Cameron is a prisoner in No.10 whose sole function is to be the nice face of the Government. Once the EU referendum is done, I suspect the timetable for the proposed handover to Osborne will become clearer and let's not forget many Cabinet Ministers and Ministers of State are in post because of Osborne and won't oppose him.
And if he does I hope it's nothing like this:
https://twitter.com/jesshop23/status/711235888634667008
Questions aplenty - does Altior run in the Champion Hurdle next year or will he go over fences ? I'm almost tempted to ask the same for both Yanworth and Yorkhill who may be fighting out the RSA Chase next year or the World Hurdle. Assuming Faugheen returns from injury, where's the opposition to him regaining the title ?
The Champion Chase is presumably Douvan's for the taking while the 2017 Gold Cup looks a race to savour with the likes of Coneygree, Vautour and Thistlecrack taking on Don Cossack from this year and is Blaklion a future Grand National winner ?
As the song says, there are more questions than answers..
As Sir Humphrey once correctly noted, "Gratitude in politics is the lively expression of anticipated favours."
As for this '9000' votes you keep repeating, may I gently point out that Crabb beat the Liberal Democrats by the small matter of 16000 votes?
Given your very entrenched position in this, I don't suppose I will convince you by things like facts, but it would be a big surprise if the Tories lost it. It is not Kensington, but nor is it Gwyr.
Yes, in the 1970s and 1980s these areas were Liberal strongholds. They are not now. Mark Williams held on by a much narrowed margin in Ceredigion and if he retires (which is not impossible given his age) the Liberal Democrat vote will plummet anyway.
Mark Williams beat the Tory by over 9000 votes in the most disastrous of LibDem years! Most of Preseli - in terms of electorate - would not form part of the Pembroke North & Ceredigion seat but would be combined with South Pembrokeshire as was the case 1983 - 1997. North Pembroke is quite similar to Ceredigion in being sparsely populated and predominantly Welsh speaking . It is not - and never has been particularly Tory - far less so than rural South Pembrokeshire. In 2015 an Independent candidate - a local NHS consultant polled 3500 votes campaigning on a local Hospital issue, and that may have squeezed the LibDems somewhat.Less than 20000 electors would be moved from Preseli into the new seat - of whom fewer than 15000 would be likely to vote. The Tories would be unlikely to win 40% of those additional voters - ie 6000- far below what they would need to oust Williams. I invite you to look at the Tory vote in this seat in their very good years of 1983 - 1992 inclusive. Where are their additional votes now going to come from?
Sorry to butt into a private conversation, but i live in Preseli and have campaigned for the labour candidate in the last 3 general elections. The only town of any size tagged onto Ceredigion is Fishguard and that is primarily labour. Newport, St Dogmaels have decent Labour support. The rest is very rural and is Tory/Plaid. Liberals have been losing ground badly over the last 11years. I cannot see, unless there is a dramatic shift how the Tories will get anywhere in the newlook constituency. Unless Labour pick up a lot pf votes in Aberystwyth and Lapmeter, i can only see a two horse race between Libs and Plaid and id Williams does retire i can see Plaid coming through, but any election is 4 years off, so early days.
A good pointer will be Crabbe's intentions. I would not be surprised, given his elevation, that he looks for a safe S of England seat. He has certainly brushed off his expenses issues a few years back!
I would hope that if he tried that the local Conservative Party would tell him to piss off. He has a seat let him fight for it. If he loses then let him seek selection at the following GE or a by-election in the interim. The days when ministers were able to do the chicken run and grab a safe seat just because they are ministers ought to be long behind us.
Is it possible for an Energy Minister to be in touch with reality?
Sorry to butt into a private conversation, but i live in Preseli and have campaigned for the labour candidate in the last 3 general elections. The only town of any size tagged onto Ceredigion is Fishguard and that is primarily labour. Newport, St Dogmaels have decent Labour support. The rest is very rural and is Tory/Plaid. Liberals have been losing ground badly over the last 11years. I cannot see, unless there is a dramatic shift how the Tories will get anywhere in the newlook constituency. Unless Labour pick up a lot pf votes in Aberystwyth and Lapmeter, i can only see a two horse race between Libs and Plaid and id Williams does retire i can see Plaid coming through, but any election is 4 years off, so early days.
A good pointer will be Crabbe's intentions. I would not be surprised, given his elevation, that he looks for a safe S of England seat. He has certainly brushed off his expenses issues a few years back!
I agree . Labour can also revisit his 'flipping' history if necessary too! I would repeat the point though that Welsh speaking rural North Pembrokeshire has always been less Tory than rural English speaking South Pembrokeshire.
Is she watching the rugby in the dark?
Crabb takes over at DWP,
Goyle to the backbenches,
Malfoy remains at Health
Valdemort stays as Chancellor.
All is right in Slytherin's world...
The audience that got up at 6am in 2003 must have been pretty big though.
Well maybe I should view it like this, but I stopped voting Tory in 2011 because I suspected the Tories weren't serious about doing what was right and necessary and only interested in securing their own political futures. Everything that has happened since May 7 last year has confirmed that I was right. Quite frankly I really wouldn't care if Labour won the next election.
According to the October jobs report, more than 92 million Americans — 37% of the civilian population aged 16 and over — are neither employed nor unemployed, but fall in the category of “not in the labor force.”
http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2014/11/14/more-and-more-americans-are-outside-the-labor-force-entirely-who-are-they/
Match was a Saturday night, around 8pm on ITV.
SFX: Everyone rushing to bet on England.
Cameron repeats Bonaparte...but not quite a shit in a silk stocking.
Nigel got it arrogantly wrong. He has form for screwing the French - in 2008 and 09 vs Ireland he went some absurd number of minutes between awarding a penalty against Ireland.
If it is unfair IDS can always respond in kind, or take the high road.
"I can't say the word c**t but he's a f**king c**t who deserves a hot poker up his arse."
On IDS, I well remember the HIGNFY jokes about it standing for 'in deep s***'!