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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Tories’ EU divide is making life harder for Corbyn’s op
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Tories’ EU divide is making life harder for Corbyn’s opponents
The honeymoon is over. Two polls within a week without a Tory lead – one level-pegging from ICM and then Thursday’s from YouGov reporting Labour ahead by a point – are testament to the public disapproval of internal party divisions. They might also be testament to Labour’s invisibility at the moment, but then why intrude when your opponents are tearing themselves apart?
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In short, things look good for Labour.
Expect Tory calls for Cameron and Osborne to resign to grow after the May elections.
If I were a Remainer Tory, I would want Leave to win for the good of the party.
Leave looks to me like a strong buy. Has anyone else here got an opinion on the current betting prices for Remain and Leave?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-35850625
All the guff about it being so difficult to negotiate terms of exit is just that - guff. Britain will have its own specific relationship with the eurozone and the continent regardless of whether it stays in the EU or leaves.
I would think as follows: "Leave the EU, and negotiate something that's pretty similar to what would happen if Britain stayed inside." I mean, look at Norway (free movement, Schengen, single market) and Switzerland (effectively in the single market except for...yes, financial services; not in the EEA, but often inside the entity known as "EEA and Switzerland", as anyone who's been to an international airport can confirm).
I'm not in the game of saying well there could be a minor reshuffle but then if there were a major reshuffle after the local elections then that would be the first time on a Tuesday since 1929. Two things are for certain: the Tory party is in serious trouble, and there's going to be some big bloodletting in the leadership of that party during the next 3 months.
And lo, the logical converse: 'Ultra extremist Blairites' who oppose those 'moderate Corybinites'.
Any idea who those "Israeli tourists" in Istanbul were who got injured in the attack?
Not Chabadniks by any chance? Just a guess.
There needs to be peace, and a great opportunity for that peace was lost a couple of years ago, just as trust was being gained.
"Israel's Foreign Ministry said that the Israelis who were wounded in the blast were part of a 14-member tour group. They are being treated at four different hospitals, and their condition isn’t yet known, it added.
The Israeli embassy in Ankara and the consulate in Istanbul are following the events, Nahshon said. Israel's Foreign Ministry is in emergency preparedness mode following the bombing, and a situation room will deliberate in the afternoon, he added."
*) Kurdish groups - PKK, or TAK, the latter of whom claimed responsibility for last week's bombing.
*) Left-wing / communist radicals - TIKO, DHKP etc.
*) IS.
TAK claimed responsibility for last week's bombing. As for which group did what: firstly there is the difficulty of forensically knowing, even if groups admit it (considering some groups falsely claim responsibility). Then there is the case of whether you believe the government have got the right perpetrators, through incompetence or malice.
As a matter of interest what do you see as 'concrete evidence' ? Suicide bombers cannot be interrogated.
The terrorist attack took place on Istiklal Caddesi, the main thoroughfare leading from Taksim square. And on that very street sits the Ashkenaz shul (synagogue), which, as you can confirm here, is basically a Chabad building.
But generally, there are so many groups operating in Turkey that it must be difficult getting it right unless they have very good human intelligence. But generally you'll have to believe groups that admit these crimes.
As I've said passim, Turkey's scared.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/35850766
Our Red Liberal crutch failed last time, and we ended up on our @rses.
http://www.pembrokeshire-herald.com/22732/22732/
“Downing Street is taking the micky by coming out with hyperbolic stories and completely ignoring the fact that the party is supposed to be neutral and allowing party events to be hijacked by ‘remainers’ - notably the PM.”
sun.co.uk
No doubt those Remainians that said it was right for John Longworth to resign from the BCC will also be criticising Cameron.
Oh wait, they won't.
Some of the invective on here is putting to shame some of the stuff that was written about Bonkers Brown.. People's sense of proportion has gone completely awol.
If they don't do badly elsewhere his supporters will certainly claim it proves he can win an election. They are of course wrong, but that's not the point. The point is that it means unless he falls ill or dies, he will lead Labour at the next election.
Cameron surely won't last much longer now - next year would be my guess - and Farron might be vulnerable if things don't improve soon. It's not out of the question therefore that Corbyn might be the only current leader of a national party still in place in 2020. Rather a sobering thought.
Labour need to be ahead by 7% to match their performance of four years ago. There's no sign of that in recent local by-elections.
UKIP seem to be under performing their poll ratings in local elections, but I expect they'll pick up when we're close to the referendum. PR makes it very likely the party will get into the London and Welsh assemblies.
'Comments upthread about Crabb fighting a marginal seem disingenuous to me, for three reasons:
1) Like most rural Welsh constituencies, Preseli Pembrokeshire has a tiny electorate. The third largest town is the village and ferry terminal of Abergwaun. His majority of 5,000 is about 12 points. That would be considered a pretty safe seat in England.
2) His seat is about to be merged with Ceredigion. There is a fairly solid Tory vote there. However, PC and the Liberal Democrats are also-rans in PP, while in Ceredigion Labour have never recovered from the insane decision to field Alun Davies as their candidate in 2005 (he sent the Labour vote hurtling backwards even faster than the Iraq war did). It's going to be a very safe Tory seat.
3) Because of its size and remote location, it seems likely he would be offered another constituency nearer London anyway if he went to the very top, a la Churchill or Macmillan.
I don't see that as a flaw in his rise to the top. His radical social views may be different, although bluntly I don't think many voters actually care about gay rights one way or another. They give what answer they think will make them seem 'nice people' and promptly forget about it.'
It is unlikely that Preseli Pembrokeshire will be merged with Ceredigion -ie Cardigan . It will probably take in much of the South Pembrokeshire seat . It is not a safe seat - the former Pembrokeshire seat was Labour held from 1950 to 1970 when it was lost because of a split in the Labour vote caused by the former MP -Desmond Donnelly- forming his own party and polling almost 12000 votes. It was a major surprise when Labour failed to regain the seat in 1974 - though they eventually did so under new boundaries in 1992 If Labour were 5% ahead nationally I would expect them to regain this seat. There has also been a whiff of scandal re-Crabb - he was a 'flipper' in the expenses affair
Abergwaun is if course more commonly known as Fishguard.
I'm starting to think I was unfair to Gordon Brown. If this was the kind of pressure he kept clamped down to hold Labour somewhere near the centre, he must have had something going for him.
The May elections are clearly ones that Cameron is not focused on and not putting resources behind. If he had placed a bigger gap - such as 3+ months- between these and the referendum then I would have expected the end result being a summer full of anti-Corbyn plotting etc as well as the referendum debates.
Instead we have a Conservative party machine distracted by the referendum and mounting half hearted local election campaigns and in the other nations. Some folk that should have been elected as Conservatives will not now be elected and should hold Cameron & Osborne to blame.
Householders couldn't care less who collects their bins, provides their healthcare (mostly private GPs) or cleans the streets. They just want it done in the most efficient way.
Similarly, parents don't care hugely who is overseeing teaching their children as long as it is good.
Until the left understand this they will fail to win over the consumer rather than the producer.
A constituency from Milford Haven to Machynlleth is in my view much too big, especially given its lousy transport links. But that's what's being proposed.
Edited after I put the wrong village down.
Now, who was leader at the time?
That is not accurate - Labour lost seats in 1983 , 1987 and 1992. Going back further, Labour lost seats in 1959, 1960 and 1961.
Suspended by board, then resigned.
http://www.bristolpost.co.uk/MP-Charlotte-Leslie-resign-benefit-cuts-ahead/story-28954426-detail/story.html
I don't buy the argument though that he will automatically win. How many of these new members and £3 will actually bother next time? We are already getting reports that they never turn up to local party meetings and leafleting sessions, and in the local parties it is the same old faces (highly predictable IMHO). We'll see. If I was a Labour moderate I'd say it was worth a punt.
What is more you are assuming that the boundary changes will get voted through in 2018. I suggest that remains uncertain.
Or is it?
Being in the middle of Labour voters (which I don't think Corbyn is) puts you well to the left of the nation as a whole. The idea of Blair is that he may be to the right win of Labour voters but he is still to the left of the nation and allowed a left-wing government, the only left-wing government in many decades.
Are you just writing off the majority of the country that did not vote for left wing parties in 2015 as irrelevant?
In fact, as it would drop the Labour voting areas of Haverfordwest and Milford into another constituency it looks if anything a rather safer conservative seat than I had thought.
And have the NINO immigration figures been released yet?? Or is Cameron still hiding those figures??
I always assumed a "moderate social democrat" was someone like Charlie Kennedy, Corbyn is WAY to the left of him.
Seems to be a slight irony that the SDP peeled off from the Labour Party because it was seen as too leftie and too unilateralist, and now we have the cheerleaders of a unilateralist leftie trying to tell us he is a social democrat!
It's up to leave to come up with proposals for the people, and which will bind the government. Sadly they will not do so. It's quite simply because doing so might split leave between the anti-immigration and EEA groupings.
Because of this, the public have little idea what Leave will mean.
It's highly cynical of leave.
Carswell was a Tory. The only MPs UKIP have ever had were once Tories. UKIP leaning Voters in marginals know they'd rather have a Tory government than a Labour one. Even when it is led by the less than ideal Cameron.
One of the many reasons why opinion polls are increasingly uninteresting. They don't reflect the reality - they're the Facebook petition of modern politics.
Incidentally, which moron invented the online parliamentary petition. I am sick of them.l and the keyboard warriors that sign them.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/11880864/Conservative-Party-to-stay-neutral-during-EU-referendum.html
We could if you wanted to have positive cases fighting each other have this fought out by Alternative Vote with three options: Remain in EU, Leave to the EEA, Leave altogether. However the government would most likely lose that to the EEA option so instead have made this a simple In or Out question.
It is not Leave's fault that neither of their options are on the ballot so they are united together as simply Leave. There is no dishonesty there.
The Conservative Party.
From the article... "Eurosceptics won a key victory over the Tory leadership last year when the Conservative Party was forced to declare it would remain impartial on the referendum issue - meaning the party machinery and deep coffers could not be used to campaign against a Brexit."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-35614846
After my recent experience with a lesser form, I was interested to see the government's response. I'm not convinced they've got it right.
Regarding your point that a constituency stretching from Eglwyswrw to Milford Haven being too big, may I remind you that until 1983 the Pembrokeshire seat went from Eglwyswrw to beyond Pembroke Dock!
If you are campaigning, you should know what you're campaigning for. That means choosing between EEA or immigration control, as they're mutually exclusive. A such, they're lying to the public.
As a matter of interest, did anyone complain to the EC that there should be other options on the ballot? I can't remember.
So long as he doesn't touch my beneficial interests or impose export controls before I get all my millions out of the country - or those millions that aren't already offshore - I'll be fine.
But I ask you. Darkies, eh? And wearing a jacket that doesn't much his trousers, even when we ask God in Heaven to "save" our anointed "queen". Enoch, now he had it right. Corbyn - moderate? An extremist among extremists, more like. Horsewhipping's too good for him and for all the single mothers and woofters who support him.
I know Remainers would love the Leave team to get into a huge argument about something which they can do nothing about, and to be honest given their general fuckwittery to date I am surprised they haven't.
You are asking the wrecking ball to come up with designs for the new building, I suggest you go and talk to the architect.
Oh wait ...