Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Cruz wins the most delegates tonight but it looks like toni

124»

Comments

  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,536

    China does not have full, unfettered access to the single market. It has a degree of access. If we have the same that will involve us giving up free movement of goods, services and capital, as well as of people.

    I didn't think we had free trade in services at present.

    And the UK might decide it doesn't need full free trade in goods if the cost to achieve it is too high.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,017

    I didn't think we had free trade in services at present.

    And the UK might decide it doesn't need full free trade in goods if the cost to achieve it is too high.

    It may do. But no party with the chance of forming a government is saying that.

  • runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    The idea we would lose free movement of capital is pretty fanciful. The Eurozone/EU is not going to start imposing exchange controls. There's a difference between tough negotiation and self-immolation.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,581
    Simon Heffer on Trump v Clinton:

    "The fight is portrayed as establishment versus anti-establishment. But it also one of reason against emotion, and it is far from clear reason will prevail."

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/donald-trump/12183862/Hillary-Clinton-will-find-it-harder-to-crush-Donald-Trump-than-she-thinks.html
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,366

    Can you really put a political slogan on a ballot paper in Scotland?
    On the list paper yes, as long as you put the party name first.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235

    Simon Heffer on Trump v Clinton:

    "The fight is portrayed as establishment versus anti-establishment. But it also one of reason against emotion, and it is far from clear reason will prevail."

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/donald-trump/12183862/Hillary-Clinton-will-find-it-harder-to-crush-Donald-Trump-than-she-thinks.html

    Heffer is getting ahead of himself, might not be Trump.
  • flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903
    SeanT said:

    The LEAVE camp probably needs to settle on a transitional arrangement that preserves trade: EEA or EFTA. This could and would be done very quickly, as it would be in the interests of all, rEU and UK.

    The LEAVERS should say that AFTER we quit ,the question of free movement - or not - will then become a democratic choice for the British people. If voters want to stop migration from the EU they can vote for a party that offers this, at the next election, and it will be done immediately, as the EU will no longer be able to stop us.

    That's a coherent position.

    Put it another way: Leaving the EU is a necessary but not sufficient condition: if you want to end free movement. But if we don't leave the EU then it is of course quite impossible to stop the influx.
    ?
    Its coherent to leave the EU, agree a trade deal that makes no virtual difference, and includes free movement - but then say to the EU that we might just change the fundamental part of that agreement in a couple of years?
    Thats coherent?
    Are you on more bottles of plonk a day than Nigel Farage?
    By changing the terms of that agreement - unilaterally - it would void the very agreement that you claim with some absurdity to be coherent. The terms of the EEA require free movement. Plus membership of the EEA preserves the 'free trade' deal that our economy needs.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,581

    Really? That many?

    I don't bother myself except on v rare occasions, ditto QT.

    Viewing figures quoted on Wikipedia. I suspect that many people have it on in the background whilst they make a late Sunday breakfast.

    Personally, I usually video it and then watch later, skipping the rubbish bits. Generally, Marr gives pols a very easy time of it.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,536

    It may do. But no party with the chance of forming a government is saying that.

    They would change their tune if they had to conduct any actual negotiations with the EU.

    CameronReek has shown what happens when you try to negotiate after you've told everyone you'll accept anything you're given.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Pulpstar said:

    Heffer is getting ahead of himself, might not be Trump.
    It's going to be Trump. For sure.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,581
    Pulpstar said:

    Heffer is getting ahead of himself, might not be Trump.
    Well he does use the word "probably" in a few places. But claims to have visited States last week and found a real rage against the GOP establishment and business as usual.

    Trump is 114% of way to his targets according to 5-30-8 website this morning.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,017

    Well there's this for starters:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airbus_UK

    I doubt there's much which any country produces, outside of some highly specialised new technology, which can't be sourced from another country.

    The area of risk for trade disruption would be for international businesses which have different parts, eg aero or motor engines, of a final product made in multiple countries.

    The issue is what can be sourced from another country without reducing competition and raising prices. If cars from the EU cost more that his a direct and immediate consequence for UK consumers. If Airbus UK components cost more that has a direct and immediate consequence for Airbus, but is not going to have much of an immediate impact on the average EU citizen.

  • flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903
    OllyT said:

    According to the Economist Norway is the 10th highest contributor to the EU budget despite not being in it. I am sure that will come as a surprise to many LEAVERS . According to the same source in 2013 (latest comparable data) Norway admitted twice as many EU immigrants per head of population than the UK.
    And as a result a neonazi nutjob went on a killing spree. That tells us how easy life is outside the EU.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,255
    OllyT said:



    According to the Economist Norway is the 10th highest contributor to the EU budget despite not being in it. I am sure that will come as a surprise to many LEAVERS . According to the same source in 2013 (latest comparable data) Norway admitted twice as many EU immigrants per head of population than the UK.

    LOL Very clever - or rather very disingenuous - of the Economist.

    Rather than saying that Norway were the 10th highest contributor to the EU budget what they should have said was that Norway is the 10th highest NET contributor and in fact is the lowest of all net contributors. And that is in spite of it having the highest GDP/capita of any country in Europe bar Luxembourg. - who incidently are not a net contributor.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235

    Well he does use the word "probably" in a few places. But claims to have visited States last week and found a real rage against the GOP establishment and business as usual.

    Trump is 114% of way to his targets according to 5-30-8 website this morning.
    http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/republicans/

    Has not been updated.

    The rage against the Washington establishment can also be expressed by voting for Cruz.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022

    It may do. But no party with the chance of forming a government is saying that.

    What worries me if we do leave and nothing much changes is that it opens the way for a Trump-like figure.
  • flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903
    SeanT said:

    I thought SeanT was using a new pseudonym when I read this yesterday

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/travel/article4705619.ece?shareToken=4aa10f06e80864a019d64b4e99334845

    "I’m driving my yacht tender through the billionaire’s bay of Villefranche-sur-Mer. It’s only 11am but my wife has already cracked the Veuve Clicquot. If I spin the speedboat 360 degrees I can see the former mansions of Gianni Agnelli, Keith Richards and Jean Cocteau".
    Funnily enough, I'm sitting here reading your comment in the Uma Punakha, Bhutan, which just happens to be the king of Bhutan's favourite hotel and restaurant. My suite has this view, which I snapped this morning.
    twitter.com/thomasknox/status/706433827439181824

    Then I went for brekkers.
    twitter.com/thomasknox/status/706311673909420033

    The altitude is getting to you
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,017

    They would change their tune if they had to conduct any actual negotiations with the EU.

    CameronReek has shown what happens when you try to negotiate after you've told everyone you'll accept anything you're given.

    Possibly. But I doubt any imaginable UK government is going to give up freedom of movement in goods, services and capital in order to achieve a meaningful change to provisions on free movement of people, especially given the number of UK citizens living in various parts of the EU.

  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,214

    Gove managed to get into a spat with May where he had to apologise and May's aid resigned. Not clever politics all round and again Gove's judgement called into question. This was before Gove was moved from education. (I like Gove BTW... he is being silly over the EU)

    This was called a tory 'meltdown' at the time so it shows how you should ignore newspaper headlines.
    The Mail also said this was all about the tory leadership race, ''with Mr Gove said to be determined to stop her [May] on behalf of his ally, Chancellor George Osborne.''

    To listen to people on here Gove is all out to stop Osborne. But then does it really matter what anybody says or reports - in newspapers or on here - as long as its sensational?

    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2651674/Tory-bloodbath-Muslim-schools-fiasco-Cabinet-meltdown-Michael-Gove-humbled-Theresa-May-aide-fired.html#ixzz427bxnbqH
    Newspapers resort to sensation because it sells / is clickbait. It's not surprising that they go down that line all the more when they've collectively lost a third of sales in the past five years.
  • New Thread New Thread
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,214

    It's going to be Trump. For sure.
    Yes. He didn't have a good night in one sense yesterday, losing two states. On the other hand, Cruz emerging as his clear opponent is excellent for him.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,017

    What worries me if we do leave and nothing much changes is that it opens the way for a Trump-like figure.

    It is undoubtedly the case that there will be a number of very angry Leavers. But not all Leavers will feel betrayed and you'll have to add them to those who voted to Remain and the people who did not vote at all.

  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,036
    SeanT said:

    The LEAVE camp probably needs to settle on a transitional arrangement that preserves trade: EEA or EFTA. This could and would be done very quickly, as it would be in the interests of all, rEU and UK.

    The LEAVERS should say that AFTER we quit ,the question of free movement - or not - will then become a democratic choice for the British people. If voters want to stop migration from the EU they can vote for a party that offers this, at the next election, and it will be done immediately, as the EU will no longer be able to stop us.

    That's a coherent position.

    Put it another way: Leaving the EU is a necessary but not sufficient condition: if you want to end free movement. But if we don't leave the EU then it is of course quite impossible to stop the influx.
    It might be a coherent position but it is half the story. Sooner or later LEAVE are going to have to admit that we are going to have free trade OR an end to immigration but not both. They cannot simply dodge the issue from now till June, it's untenable. The closer we get to the referendum the more undecided voters are going to want to ,know exactly what will happen if we BREXIT and no amount of "it could be this" or "it could be that" is going to satisfy those voters.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,255


    And as a result a neonazi nutjob went on a killing spree. That tells us how easy life is outside the EU.

    Your ignorance is once again truly stunning. Norway is one of the most integrated countries of anywhere in Europe. They have totally rejected the whole concept of multiculturalism and have insisted that anyone settling in the country learns the language and have strict rules to prevent the development of ghettos or isolation from mainstream Norwegian society.

    If the UK were a tenth as integrated and settled a place as Norway then we would be a much happier and more pleasant country. Instead we have to put up with epsilon semi morons like you trying to make political capital out of one lunatic.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,536

    Possibly. But I doubt any imaginable UK government is going to give up freedom of movement in goods, services and capital in order to achieve a meaningful change to provisions on free movement of people, especially given the number of UK citizens living in various parts of the EU.

    All hypothetical at the moment and the world changes all the time.

    The risk of millions of third world 'refugees' being allowed to migrate to Britain would have an affect on negotiations.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,536

    The issue is what can be sourced from another country without reducing competition and raising prices. If cars from the EU cost more that his a direct and immediate consequence for UK consumers. If Airbus UK components cost more that has a direct and immediate consequence for Airbus, but is not going to have much of an immediate impact on the average EU citizen.

    And restricting goods from the UK or increasing their prices has a direct and immediate cost for EU consumers.

    The issue becomes how much benefit is free trade to yourself compared with the costs that have to be paid for it.

    Is free trade in cars worth it to the UK if the cost is free movement of people ?

    That is what would have to be negotiated.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,147
    rcs1000 said:

    A narrow victory for Remain.
    A moderate Out-er as leader, who heals.
    Another referendum in a 10 to 15 years.
    A vote for Out.

    I'd reckon Labour will have a brief and unhappy time in power 2025 to 2030, then a BOO Conservative Party will win in 2030.

    If Chuka Umunna wins in 2025 he is certainly not going to call an EU refererendum
  • flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903

    LOL Very clever - or rather very disingenuous - of the Economist.

    Rather than saying that Norway were the 10th highest contributor to the EU budget what they should have said was that Norway is the 10th highest NET contributor and in fact is the lowest of all net contributors. And that is in spite of it having the highest GDP/capita of any country in Europe bar Luxembourg. - who incidently are not a net contributor.
    Norway is currently in dispute because its being asked to increase its contribution (five fold I think)
    The CBI say
    ''The EEA countries do not pay directly into the EU’s budget. However, they do contribute to a separate EEA Grant, amounting to €988.5 million for the 2009–14 period, while Norway in addition finances the Norway Grants of €800 million. Norway is thus the tenth highest contributor to the EU, despite not being a member, with per capita contributions of €100, well over half of the UK’s contributions (€180).

    In addition, the countries pay directly for participation in EU programmes, and EEA EFTA contributions to EU Programmes in 2013 are estimated to be €284 million. Taking part in these programmes is seen as vital in all EEA EFTA countries to bring both capital and knowledge, in particular boosting turnover in the area of research. Becoming a member of EFTA would also mean budgetary contributions to the funding of the Secretariat, which in 2013 had a budget of approximately £15 million.

    Although the UK would likely see its absolute contributions to ‘European’ budgets fall were it to leave, the relative contributions it would have to make if it pursued the ‘Norway option’ would still be significant.''

    http://www.cbi.org.uk/global-future/case_study06_norway.html

    ''The countries are allowed to participate as observers in some bodies. For instance in 2005 Iceland had access to 418 committees and specialists’ advisory bodies, although they participated in only 184 of them.[17] This access has, however, been reduced over time and there has been a gradual shift towards a much narrower interpretation on the EU side resulting in the exclusion of Iceland, Norway and Liechtenstein from many committees and advisory bodies in which they had participated previously.[18]

    Added to that, the EEA is becoming increasingly less important to the EU. EU foreign ministers, for example, rarely show up for meetings in the EEA Council as was expected in the beginning. And increasingly the European Commission ‘forgets’ to involve specialists from the EFTA EEA states when new legislation is being prepared.''

    Despite the drawbacks I am not inherently opposed to the Norway option. I just recognise that it is no real change.
  • NEW THREAD NEW THREAD

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,147

    Elaborating, look at the schedule:
    http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/us/elections/primary-calendar-and-results.html?_r=0

    On the Democrat side, Sanders will get a boost today in Maine, but Michigan is his best chance to slow the Clinton juggernaut, and he probably won't quite succeed. But on the GOP side, Tuesday has Michigan, which Kasich could well win (2 points ahead in latest poll) and endorsed by the leading local paper) and Mississippi, which Trump has leading in by 41-17 last month, but should now be closer. March 15 has three big winner-takes-all/most states, FL, OH and IL. Kasich should now take OH. The other two, who knows now. And then we move on to big northern and western states where Trump is generally not as strong.

    The path to a Trump majority is difficult, and getting e.g. Rubio supporters to back him after all he's said about Rubio will be really hard unless he's been winning recent primaries, such as California. I don't think Trump should be better than evens (disclosure: I have a £30 lay on him).
    Trump will win New York and Pennsylvania against Cruz and probably California too, although that would be closer. The key now will be Michigan on Tuesday and Ohio and Florida on Tuesday week, if Trump wins those states and beats Kasich and Rubio in their home states then they both drop out and it is Trump v Cruz, most likely until Wisconsin, New York and Pennsylvania vote at the end of April where Trump victories over Cruz would effectively seal the nomination for him
  • BromptonautBromptonaut Posts: 1,113
    First leaflet from the Leave side this morning. Free your local NHS from EU control. What absolute tosh -> Bin.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    SeanT said:

    Lol. Rogerdamus strikes again. Infallible.

    Btw how do you "purge" 60-70% of your members and half your MPs? It's like asking a surgeon to amputate your own head.
    LOL
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Christopher Hope
    Boris Johnson was interrupted 57 times on the Andrew Marr Show today; PM was only intrerrupted 23 times two weeks ago. #marr
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Ben Riley Smith
    NEW -- Twice as many Tory local chairmen back Brexit than staying in EU, BBC survey reveals.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12185065/Twice-as-many-Tory-local-chairmen-back-Brexit-than-staying-in-EU-survey-reveals.html
  • OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,469

    Christopher Hope
    Boris Johnson was interrupted 57 times on the Andrew Marr Show today; PM was only intrerrupted 23 times two weeks ago. #marr

    Boris was wittering, seemingly unable to offer a single coherent sentence to the conversation that Marr was trying to have with him. It was so bad that I had to turn the TV off in embarrassment and becoming increasingly nauseous at the thought that he may potentially become PM.
This discussion has been closed.