@faisalislam: a flash of clarity from Germany re #brexit: of course there would be a trade deal, but difficult negotiations lasting years on Single Market
Good morning and tashi delek from beautifully weird Bhutan. Incredible place.
Almost as incredible is the news that Number 10 agitated to get the eurosceptic BCC Chairman suspended. Wtf is the government doing? Are they so terrified of losing the referendum they don't care about the aftermath? It's unbelievably short sighted.
REMAIN are very likely to win. They don't need to do this. Yet they are carefully constructing a myth of a conspiracy and a stab-in-the-back that betrayed a patriotic cause. Last time this happened we got Nazi Germany. A much milder form of this utterly destroyed Scottish Labour.
Remarkable.
Referenda kill parties.
They do so, because like a pressure valve, they release the truth that parties are not coherent, stable things and that there is often more tension within parties than between them. They are bombs waiting to go off.
Cameron finally has a chance to defeat the people who have been causing him the most trouble for 10 years. I expect he wants to annihilate them.
... and vice versa. Matthew Parris agrees and wants the winning side to annihilate the losers. The Tories are living in 'interesting times' of their own making.
Parris is being a tool. Do the Leavers want to annihilate the Remainians? No. I suspect most would be happy enough for the Cabinet to carry on as is, without any need of a "healing" reshuffle.
I'm sure you are right but it is not the view of many on here in the Leave camp. They claim the party is clamouring for blood whatever the result.
@chrisshipitv: German Finance Minister clear as ever: if you leave EU & still want access to single mkt, UK will have to pay in *and* accept free movement
Good morning and tashi delek from beautifully weird Bhutan. Incredible place.
Almost as incredible is the news that Number 10 agitated to get the eurosceptic BCC Chairman suspended. Wtf is the government doing? Are they so terrified of losing the referendum they don't care about the aftermath? It's unbelievably short sighted.
REMAIN are very likely to win. They don't need to do this. Yet they are carefully constructing a myth of a conspiracy and a stab-in-the-back that betrayed a patriotic cause. Last time this happened we got Nazi Germany. A much milder form of this utterly destroyed Scottish Labour.
Remarkable.
Referenda kill parties.
They do so, because like a pressure valve, they release the truth that parties are not coherent, stable things and that there is often more tension within parties than between them. They are bombs waiting to go off.
Cameron finally has a chance to defeat the people who have been causing him the most trouble for 10 years. I expect he wants to annihilate them.
I think you're right. Unlike those who think this'll go the Scottish way and the winners will end up losers I think it'll go the Stalin route. A big REMAIN win it will be seen as a glorious victory for Cameron/Osborne and there will a purge of the 'LEAVERS' that will see the end of 'Boris and the Bastards' for a generation.
(The Tories might even end up a mainstream centrist party who normal people can vote for)
Lol. Rogerdamus strikes again. Infallible.
Btw how do you "purge" 60-70% of your members and half your MPs? It's like asking a surgeon to amputate your own head.
Even without a purge, Conservative Party membership dropped by up to half in the past decade, which might, ironically, be one reason the party modernised its campaigning and won the election.
Looking up the results it's amazing how few vote. Wheeler County in Nebraska for example was a tie with Clinton and Sanders with 3 votes each! Now I know some US states are sparsely populated but surely an election for the local dog catcher would elicit a greater turnout than 6 electors.
Listening to Wolfgang Schauble on Marr I was impressed with the simple way he explained his regret if UK leave but quite firmly stated that on exit UK would be offered a trade deal but that we would have to pay in and absolutely agree to free movement of labour. This just seems to me to demolish leave's case and they need to come out with a realistic counter argument. Boris on Marr just full of bluster
EU Facts: What would leaving the EU mean for expats? Would Britain leaving the European Union see British expatriates deported en masse? What happens to their property? We answer your questions
One good thing about this s we can dispense with this hard and soft eurosceptic definition business. Those who want out are eurosceptic, those who want in, perhaps with reform wished for perhaps not, are europhile. End of.
Mr. NorthWales, South Korea has a trade deal without free movement, doesn't it?
Also 'free movement' can mean various things. Freedom to move to a guaranteed job (and to leave if unemployed for X months) is a different kettle of monkeys to freedom to come over and stay indefinitely.
Also, that neglects that we'd regain the ability to actually make our own laws instead of having so many imposed by the EU.
@chrisshipitv: German Finance Minister clear as ever: if you leave EU & still want access to single mkt, UK will have to pay in *and* accept free movement
Sounds good to me. We wouldn't have to accept all the other political and social integration that goes with membership.
EU Facts: What would leaving the EU mean for expats? Would Britain leaving the European Union see British expatriates deported en masse? What happens to their property? We answer your questions
"What would be interesting would be a thread on why the Tories have turned so much more eurosceptic than Labour, even though they never used to be. Given some of the EU policies we have seen in recent years, it is odd that there is not more of a left wing critique of the EU. There is certainly room for one. Why does the EU seem to cut across traditional left/right lines? Or maybe it is to do with which strand in national parties is uppermost: trading / jobs vs national sovereignty?"
I don't think it does. If the last several weeks have told us anything about respective positions it's that for the overwhelming majority of LEAVERS it's all aboout wrapping themselves in the flag.
All the rest of the arguments are fig leaves.
The surprise to me is that in 2016 it's still possible for so many otherwise intelligent Tories to still get hung up on things like this
I think the idea that referenda kill parties, is mistaken. The 1975 referendum didn't cause Labour too many problems, probably because Wilson remained mostly aloof and allowed his cabinet freedom to campaign as their consciences dictated. When it was over he could carry on with people from both sides of the argument still in cabinet. Other referenda, and there have been very few of them, have not caused any ructions in any party that I know of.
The problem for the Conservatives in this one is not that the party is split on the issue, Labour was in 1975, it is Cameron. His leadership skills are really quite dreadful, he really couldn't lead the proverbial squad of ducklings across a fire bucket. On top of which he seems to be so desperate to win that he is, as Mr KLE4 says, overselling a deal which in no way matched what he said he wanted to achieve at the outset and seems to be content to wreck his party for the sake of victory on this issue.
I wonder if he would behave differently if there was a credible opposition. I doubt it, but it might be nice for their to be an alternative party ready for government.
Listening to Wolfgang Schauble on Marr I was impressed with the simple way he explained his regret if UK leave but quite firmly stated that on exit UK would be offered a trade deal but that we would have to pay in and absolutely agree to free movement of labour. This just seems to me to demolish leave's case and they need to come out with a realistic counter argument. Boris on Marr just full of bluster
It doesn't matter if there was pressure or not. It's not as though anyone admits to pressuring others unreasonably. The problem remains it is very easy to believe it,it's the sort of thing people expect.
Good morning and tashi delek from beautifully weird Bhutan. Incredible place.
Almost as incredible is the news that Number 10 agitated to get the eurosceptic BCC Chairman suspended. Wtf is the government doing? Are they so terrified of losing the referendum they don't care about the aftermath? It's unbelievably short sighted.
REMAIN are very likely to win. They don't need to do this. Yet they are carefully constructing a myth of a conspiracy and a stab-in-the-back that betrayed a patriotic cause. Last time this happened we got Nazi Germany. A much milder form of this utterly destroyed Scottish Labour.
Remarkable.
Referenda kill parties.
They do so, because like a pressure valve, they release the truth that parties are not coherent, stable things and that there is often more tension within parties than between them. They are bombs waiting to go off.
Cameron finally has a chance to defeat the people who have been causing him the most trouble for 10 years. I expect he wants to annihilate them.
... and vice versa. Matthew Parris agrees and wants the winning side to annihilate the losers. The Tories are living in 'interesting times' of their own making.
Parris is being a tool. Do the Leavers want to annihilate the Remainians? No. I suspect most would be happy enough for the Cabinet to carry on as is, without any need of a "healing" reshuffle.
Probably not, but I think they are aware that the likes of IDS and Grayling would have gone long ago were it not for their positions as leading Eurosceptics in the party. Getting rid of IDS in particular would probably be worth a couple of percentage points in the polls.
I find it odd too, then again Jezza has deleted all his anti-EU stuff along with screeds of other speeches. He was even against the EU in his Leadership campaign.
"What would be interesting would be a thread on why the Tories have turned so much more eurosceptic than Labour, even though they never used to be.
Given some of the EU policies we have seen in recent years, it is odd that there is not more of a left wing critique of the EU. There is certainly room for one.
Why does the EU seem to cut across traditional left/right lines? Or maybe it is to do with which strand in national parties is uppermost: trading / jobs vs national sovereignty?"
****
It is a very strange phenomenon. Left wing euroscepticism has virtually died out, despite ample evidence that it is more justified than ever, from the austerian Fiskal Pakt to TTIP.
I think the EU has become another sacred cow for atheist centre lefties, who have nothing else to believe in, now that Marxism is dead (it is noticeable that the few sceptic lefties tend to be on the FAR left, i.e. they still believe in Marxism, like Corbyn, so they have other gods to worship)
Europhilia is part of the social democratic creed, like multiculturalism. They don't care to analyse it in any depth, for fear its inherent contradictions will be revealed, in a very painful way.
Listening to Wolfgang Schauble on Marr I was impressed with the simple way he explained his regret if UK leave but quite firmly stated that on exit UK would be offered a trade deal but that we would have to pay in and absolutely agree to free movement of labour. This just seems to me to demolish leave's case and they need to come out with a realistic counter argument. Boris on Marr just full of bluster
Schauble doesn't decide those things. I am honestly surprised you actually believe this rubbish.
Good morning and tashi delek from beautifully weird Bhutan. Incredible place.
Almost as incredible is the news that Number 10 agitated to get the eurosceptic BCC Chairman suspended. Wtf is the government doing? Are they so terrified of losing the referendum they don't care about the aftermath? It's unbelievably short sighted.
REMAIN are very likely to win. They don't need to do this. Yet they are carefully constructing a myth of a conspiracy and a stab-in-the-back that betrayed a patriotic cause. Last time this happened we got Nazi Germany. A much milder form of this utterly destroyed Scottish Labour.
Remarkable.
Referenda kill parties.
They do so, because like a pressure valve, they release the truth that parties are not coherent, stable things and that there is often more tension within parties than between them. They are bombs waiting to go off.
Cameron finally has a chance to defeat the people who have been causing him the most trouble for 10 years. I expect he wants to annihilate them.
... and vice versa. Matthew Parris agrees and wants the winning side to annihilate the losers. The Tories are living in 'interesting times' of their own making.
Parris is being a tool. Do the Leavers want to annihilate the Remainians? No. I suspect most would be happy enough for the Cabinet to carry on as is, without any need of a "healing" reshuffle.
I'm sure you are right but it is not the view of many on here in the Leave camp. They claim the party is clamouring for blood whatever the result.
I don't know who is or is not a member and care somewhat less but I read the posts - look at SeanT earlier and Con Home and Fox/Tebbitt, etc.
Listening to Wolfgang Schauble on Marr I was impressed with the simple way he explained his regret if UK leave but quite firmly stated that on exit UK would be offered a trade deal but that we would have to pay in and absolutely agree to free movement of labour. This just seems to me to demolish leave's case and they need to come out with a realistic counter argument. Boris on Marr just full of bluster
Given the deficit in trade between us and the EU, should it not be the UK that is offering the EU a trade deal?
What would be interesting would be a thread on why the Tories have turned so much more eurosceptic than Labour, even though they never used to be.
Given some of the EU policies we have seen in recent years, it is odd that there is not more of a left wing critique of the EU. There is certainly room for one.
Why does the EU seem to cut across traditional left/right lines? Or maybe it is to do with which strand in national parties is uppermost: trading / jobs vs national sovereignty?
Tories have brain-cells: Labour never pay taxes (but rely on 'bennies' c.f. Sven, :tumbleweed:)...?
Cameron's referendum strategic is almost Pyrrhic (except that Pyrrhus wanted to win the war, not merely battles). It's foolish, short-sighted and really quite stupid. Cameron's riling up the backbenches and sceptics, and making it likelier for a sceptic to do well in the contest to succeed him.
Edited extra bit: Mr. kle4, by the 'other' Turkey story, d'you mean one beside the state occupation of a newspaper and, if so, what was it?
The constant problems the eurosceptic "bastards" have caused in the Tory party for 25 years are very similar to the problems the Tea Party activists have caused in the GOP. Very vocal groups with numerous obsessives amongst them that are a turn-off to other voters particularly on the centre ground..
So far the Tories have done better at overcoming the handicap but they have gone a very strong position post Corbyn to ferrets fighting in a sack in the space of 6 months.
We now have a dysfunctional government to add to our dysfunctional opposition!
It doesn't matter if there was pressure or not. It's not as though anyone admits to pressuring others unreasonably. The problem remains it is very easy to believe it,it's the sort of thing people expect.
So you are content for Boris to make up stories if it helps the cause?
Mr. NorthWales, South Korea has a trade deal without free movement, doesn't it?
Also 'free movement' can mean various things. Freedom to move to a guaranteed job (and to leave if unemployed for X months) is a different kettle of monkeys to freedom to come over and stay indefinitely.
Also, that neglects that we'd regain the ability to actually make our own laws instead of having so many imposed by the EU.
Mr. NorthWales, South Korea has a trade deal without free movement, doesn't it?
Also 'free movement' can mean various things. Freedom to move to a guaranteed job (and to leave if unemployed for X months) is a different kettle of monkeys to freedom to come over and stay indefinitely.
Also, that neglects that we'd regain the ability to actually make our own laws instead of having so many imposed by the EU.
I would take Wolfgang Schauble quiet and reasonable response to Andrew Marr's question as being responsible and just raising the bar for leave to come out with a believable alternative
Listening to Wolfgang Schauble on Marr I was impressed with the simple way he explained his regret if UK leave but quite firmly stated that on exit UK would be offered a trade deal but that we would have to pay in and absolutely agree to free movement of labour. This just seems to me to demolish leave's case and they need to come out with a realistic counter argument. Boris on Marr just full of bluster
"What would be interesting would be a thread on why the Tories have turned so much more eurosceptic than Labour, even though they never used to be.
Given some of the EU policies we have seen in recent years, it is odd that there is not more of a left wing critique of the EU. There is certainly room for one.
Why does the EU seem to cut across traditional left/right lines? Or maybe it is to do with which strand in national parties is uppermost: trading / jobs vs national sovereignty?"
****
It is a very strange phenomenon. Left wing euroscepticism has virtually died out, despite ample evidence that it is more justified than ever, from the austerian Fiskal Pakt to TTIP.
I think the EU has become another sacred cow for atheist centre lefties, who have nothing else to believe in, now that Marxism is dead (it is noticeable that the few sceptic lefties tend to be on the FAR left, i.e. they still believe in Marxism, like Corbyn, so they have other gods to worship)
Europhilia is part of the social democratic creed, like multiculturalism. They don't care to analyse it in any depth, for fear its inherent contradictions will be revealed, in a very painful way.
Something in that: religious believers without a religion to believe in and grabbing at whatever comes to hand. And like some, oblivious to the harm their faith does to those it claims to want to help.
Why, though, has the right - or elements of it - turned against the EU?
@faisalislam: Boris says "we would be able to trade freely with the single market" - Schauble said not. All countries in have had to accept free movement
Mr. NorthWales, South Korea has a trade deal without free movement, doesn't it?
Also 'free movement' can mean various things. Freedom to move to a guaranteed job (and to leave if unemployed for X months) is a different kettle of monkeys to freedom to come over and stay indefinitely.
Also, that neglects that we'd regain the ability to actually make our own laws instead of having so many imposed by the EU.
You are missing the distinction between a "trade deal" and "being a member of the single market". ie. without paying in and free movement we will have a trade deal of some description (obviously) but it will be on worse terms that the single market.
Some real money going into the betting markets this morning.
Anyway, I've laid off my quite large cruz position entirely @ 4.2 & 19 - happy enough that those odds represent something approaching fair value.
I'm not confident I can spot the value in the market so I'm pretty much swimming water right now. I did lay potus Donald @ 5.2, but I'm still not completely sure about that one.
It doesn't matter if there was pressure or not. It's not as though anyone admits to pressuring others unreasonably. The problem remains it is very easy to believe it,it's the sort of thing people expect.
So you are content for Boris to make up stories if it helps the cause?
Ok
Coming from a Remainer? Do you realise how stupid that sounds?
@chrisshipitv: German Finance Minister clear as ever: if you leave EU & still want access to single mkt, UK will have to pay in *and* accept free movement
Sounds good to me. We wouldn't have to accept all the other political and social integration that goes with membership.
The Jewish Chronicle this week featured tributes to Harold Wilson, btw, in the centenary of his birth. I'd expect next week's papers to have more of the same, especially since Wilson too held a referendum on Europe.
"What would be interesting would be a thread on why the Tories have turned so much more eurosceptic than Labour, even though they never used to be. Given some of the EU policies we have seen in recent years, it is odd that there is not more of a left wing critique of the EU. There is certainly room for one. Why does the EU seem to cut across traditional left/right lines? Or maybe it is to do with which strand in national parties is uppermost: trading / jobs vs national sovereignty?"
I don't think it does. If the last several weeks have told us anything about respective positions it's that for the overwhelming majority of LEAVERS it's all aboout wrapping themselves in the flag.
All the rest of the arguments are fig leaves.
The surprise to me is that in 2016 it's still possible for so many otherwise intelligent Tories to still get hung up on things like this
Cameron's referendum strategic is almost Pyrrhic (except that Pyrrhus wanted to win the war, not merely battles). It's foolish, short-sighted and really quite stupid. Cameron's riling up the backbenches and sceptics, and making it likelier for a sceptic to do well in the contest to succeed him.
Edited extra bit: Mr. kle4, by the 'other' Turkey story, d'you mean one beside the state occupation of a newspaper and, if so, what was it?
The constant problems the eurosceptic "bastards" have caused in the Tory party for 25 years are very similar to the problems the Tea Party activists have caused in the GOP. Very vocal groups with numerous obsessives amongst them that are a turn-off to other voters particularly on the centre ground..
So far the Tories have done better at overcoming the handicap but they have gone a very strong position post Corbyn to ferrets fighting in a sack in the space of 6 months.
We now have a dysfunctional government to add to our dysfunctional opposition!
Those 'bastards' represent at least half if not the majority of the Tory party on current polling evidence.
Besides quoting Major - the man who so fundamentally misunderstood the EU that he allowed them to screw him over and then wrote them a letter moaning about it - is not exactly the best way to make your case. It is a shame there weren't more of the 'bastards' around at the time or Major might not have been made to look such a complete fool.
Listening to Wolfgang Schauble on Marr I was impressed with the simple way he explained his regret if UK leave but quite firmly stated that on exit UK would be offered a trade deal but that we would have to pay in and absolutely agree to free movement of labour. This just seems to me to demolish leave's case and they need to come out with a realistic counter argument. Boris on Marr just full of bluster
Schauble doesn't decide those things. I am honestly surprised you actually believe this rubbish.
@BethRigby: Boris Johnson says no banker in City of London has ever told him they would shift European HQs to continent if UK leaves #EU. Really? #Marr
@RuthDavidsonMSP: Is it just me or is Boris floundering here? Not sure the bumble-bluster, kitten smirk, tangent-bombast routine is cutting through. #Marr
@BBCJLandale: Interesting: Boris unclear on whether post-Brexit UK should be in or out of single market. Most Leavers say not, preferring FTA
Mr. T, what's your current voting intention, or have you been too distracted by Bhutan to contemplate it?
I'm 90% OUT now. Had something of a *moment* in the last few days. I think it would be painful in the short-medium term (and personally painful, too - e.g. London property would take a hit).
However in the long term I think we'd do much better in the EEA or EFTA. Prosperous and sovereign. We'd be a happier country, too. And Westminster democracy would mean something. And so on, and so forth.
Of course I'm a bipolar alcoholic and could easily change my mind 8923 times before June, and I probably will, but this is the most decided I've been so far. The horrible bollocks from Cameron has been an important factor. Plus the veiled threats from Europe.
I couldn't forgive myself if I caved into fear and avarice and voted IN then watched the EU drag us down, and slowly dissolve what's left of our sovereignty.
Sean, if property prices in London come down, and apparently they are already, then why not take advantage and buy another one? Then when the prices go back up, generally a seven year cycle, then cash in.
It doesn't matter if there was pressure or not. It's not as though anyone admits to pressuring others unreasonably. The problem remains it is very easy to believe it,it's the sort of thing people expect.
So you are content for Boris to make up stories if it helps the cause?
Ok
I never said that, and no I'm not. I was making the point that to many people the point feels true and so tactically it doesn't matter if there is hard evidence.
Like most extreme partisans, you assume any critical point is purely designed to harm your cause. on the contrary, there will be occasions remain say things without firm proof which the public want to believe , or just expect to be true, which will not harm them to have countered. It's political reality, not partisan point scoring. The 'well they would say that' public dismissal of contrary evidence. I don't have to like it to recognise it happens.
But there was an even nastier sub-text to that histrionic [Calais] warning. Not only was it designed to be shamelessly scarifying, but it implicitly condoned the most unpleasant form of xenophobic anxiety: “You know what we can do to you if you pull out? We can dump all this scabrous human detritus on your doorstep – and you wouldn’t like that much, would you?”
Listening to Wolfgang Schauble on Marr I was impressed with the simple way he explained his regret if UK leave but quite firmly stated that on exit UK would be offered a trade deal but that we would have to pay in and absolutely agree to free movement of labour. This just seems to me to demolish leave's case and they need to come out with a realistic counter argument. Boris on Marr just full of bluster
Napoleon tried that over 200 years-ago. That airport in St Helena will be busy soon....
Listening to Wolfgang Schauble on Marr I was impressed with the simple way he explained his regret if UK leave but quite firmly stated that on exit UK would be offered a trade deal but that we would have to pay in and absolutely agree to free movement of labour. This just seems to me to demolish leave's case and they need to come out with a realistic counter argument. Boris on Marr just full of bluster
One German politician, with his own and his country's agenda in mind, makes a vague statement and that is conclusive for remain in your view, Big G?
How much does South Korea pay into the EU pot? Does South Korea have to accept anyone from the EU that wants to go and live there? Yet they manage to sell very well into the European Market. How can that be?
It doesn't matter if there was pressure or not. It's not as though anyone admits to pressuring others unreasonably. The problem remains it is very easy to believe it,it's the sort of thing people expect.
So you are content for Boris to make up stories if it helps the cause?
Ok
We discussed yesterday whether or not the representative of an organisation was entitled to express their own views while speaking on behalf of the organisation, especially if the organisation’s views were different.
Most of us felt that they shouldn’t, unless, perhaps, they made it clear at the time that the organisation had different views.
Listening to Wolfgang Schauble on Marr I was impressed with the simple way he explained his regret if UK leave but quite firmly stated that on exit UK would be offered a trade deal but that we would have to pay in and absolutely agree to free movement of labour. This just seems to me to demolish leave's case and they need to come out with a realistic counter argument. Boris on Marr just full of bluster
One German politician, with his own and his country's agenda in mind, makes a vague statement and that is conclusive for remain in your view, Big G?
He was pretty much the definitive source on what the EU would agree to with respect to the Greek palaver.
Listening to Wolfgang Schauble on Marr I was impressed with the simple way he explained his regret if UK leave but quite firmly stated that on exit UK would be offered a trade deal but that we would have to pay in and absolutely agree to free movement of labour. This just seems to me to demolish leave's case and they need to come out with a realistic counter argument. Boris on Marr just full of bluster
Schauble doesn't decide those things. I am honestly surprised you actually believe this rubbish.
A lot of voters will and why is it rubbish
Because of exactly what I said. Schauble doesn't get to decide these things.
There's very little today - bugger all in Mail or DT bar Daley, and STimes is only good for a Brexit column from Dominic Lawson and a whimsey from Niall Ferguson.
I'd scanned them all by 8am and bored. Twitter hasn't unearthed anything amusing either so far.
@BethRigby: Boris Johnson says no banker in City of London has ever told him they would shift European HQs to continent if UK leaves #EU. Really? #Marr
@RuthDavidsonMSP: Is it just me or is Boris floundering here? Not sure the bumble-bluster, kitten smirk, tangent-bombast routine is cutting through. #Marr
@BBCJLandale: Interesting: Boris unclear on whether post-Brexit UK should be in or out of single market. Most Leavers say not, preferring FTA
Ruth Davidson attacking a person for having a carefully constructed PR front and no decent policy or content? Irony alert.
It doesn't matter if there was pressure or not. It's not as though anyone admits to pressuring others unreasonably. The problem remains it is very easy to believe it,it's the sort of thing people expect.
So you are content for Boris to make up stories if it helps the cause?
Ok
LOL. That is rich considering how Cameron and the rest of the Remainders have done nothing but make up stories for weeks now.
Thought the other week that Boris somehow has lost "it".
Funny thing politics.
I think his style is best in sound bytes, in short doses. Some cutting remarks and gags wrapped up in a natural seeming sort of bumbly bluster, it doesn't seem the polished presentation of a political animal, even though he is one. If put under pressure it can seem flustered and inconsistent, and if it goes on too long harder to listen to as well.
Janet Daley, a good source for Euro enthusiasts and unsuccessful Labour candidates to (humbly, I suggest) study. on mAY 2, 2015 she maintained polls seemed dodgy:
How on earth did we get here? An Opposition leader who was almost universally regarded as an unelectable joke (at least outside of highly specialised circles) six months ago is now apparently locked in an unbreakable popular tie with a Prime Minister whose government has engineered a remarkable economic recovery. Either the Conservatives have run a quite spectacularly disastrous election campaign – or this isn’t actually happening.
Listening to Wolfgang Schauble on Marr I was impressed with the simple way he explained his regret if UK leave but quite firmly stated that on exit UK would be offered a trade deal but that we would have to pay in and absolutely agree to free movement of labour. This just seems to me to demolish leave's case and they need to come out with a realistic counter argument. Boris on Marr just full of bluster
One German politician, with his own and his country's agenda in mind, makes a vague statement and that is conclusive for remain in your view, Big G?
He was pretty much the definitive source on what the EU would agree to with respect to the Greek palaver.
I don't think he was, Mr. Alex. In fact Schauble was a lot more hard line in his pronouncements than the deal that Greece was finally forced to accept. Merkel in effect slapped him down.
Of course in any negotiation the UK would not be pleading for help as Greece was, unless Cameron is in charge of it.
Listening to Wolfgang Schauble on Marr I was impressed with the simple way he explained his regret if UK leave but quite firmly stated that on exit UK would be offered a trade deal but that we would have to pay in and absolutely agree to free movement of labour. This just seems to me to demolish leave's case and they need to come out with a realistic counter argument. Boris on Marr just full of bluster
One German politician, with his own and his country's agenda in mind, makes a vague statement and that is conclusive for remain in your view, Big G
It is difficult for leave to demolish due to his position in the German Government and his influence in the EU but I am undecided as yet on the issue
There's a piece in the Times IIRC from a fellow panelist that said he was explicit in talking in a personal capacity. A photo of the article is on Twitter somewhere.
It doesn't matter if there was pressure or not. It's not as though anyone admits to pressuring others unreasonably. The problem remains it is very easy to believe it,it's the sort of thing people expect.
So you are content for Boris to make up stories if it helps the cause?
Ok
We discussed yesterday whether or not the representative of an organisation was entitled to express their own views while speaking on behalf of the organisation, especially if the organisation’s views were different.
Most of us felt that they shouldn’t, unless, perhaps, they made it clear at the time that the organisation had different views.
"What would be interesting would be a thread on why the Tories have turned so much more eurosceptic than Labour, even though they never used to be. Given some of the EU policies we have seen in recent years, it is odd that there is not more of a left wing critique of the EU. There is certainly room for one. Why does the EU seem to cut across traditional left/right lines? Or maybe it is to do with which strand in national parties is uppermost: trading / jobs vs national sovereignty?"
I don't think it does. If the last several weeks have told us anything about respective positions it's that for the overwhelming majority of LEAVERS it's all aboout wrapping themselves in the flag.
All the rest of the arguments are fig leaves.
The surprise to me is that in 2016 it's still possible for so many otherwise intelligent Tories to still get hung up on things like this
I think people's reasons for supporting one side or the other depends on what matters to them most. I don't think you can draw any conclusions about people's intelligence just because what matters to them does not matter to you. There are honourable reasons for being on either side of this debate. I don't think there is an obviously right or wrong answer.
Anecdote: a very close friend of mine, who has set up his own business, employs people of many different nationalities, has offices in a number of countries and moved to France for 3 years to give his children a European education recently came out for Brexit. I've been surprised by the numbers of people, of whom I would not have expected it, have said that they will vote or are considering voting Leave. Anecdote obviously - and there is time for opinion to change - but still.
Listening to Wolfgang Schauble on Marr I was impressed with the simple way he explained his regret if UK leave but quite firmly stated that on exit UK would be offered a trade deal but that we would have to pay in and absolutely agree to free movement of labour. This just seems to me to demolish leave's case and they need to come out with a realistic counter argument. Boris on Marr just full of bluster
One German politician, with his own and his country's agenda in mind, makes a vague statement and that is conclusive for remain in your view, Big G?
He was pretty much the definitive source on what the EU would agree to with respect to the Greek palaver.
Yet he has been overruled by Merkel on immigration, severally.
Besides, he really is just a politician, and one who REALLY wants the UK to stay in Europe, not least cause Germany can't afford to fund the show on her own.
If they can't afford to fund the show on her own, doesn't it give weight to the likelihood of Germany playing hardball to keep the UK contributing after Brexit?
For me, today,the biggest OUT argument is the lack of any EU political and journalist culture. There simply is no one holding it to account. National govts get all the scrutiny. And the EU largely escapes.
It's possible that something might emerge in the same way as the NYTimes can hold the US federal govt to account, but it's a long way off.
It doesn't matter if there was pressure or not. It's not as though anyone admits to pressuring others unreasonably. The problem remains it is very easy to believe it,it's the sort of thing people expect.
So you are content for Boris to make up stories if it helps the cause?
Ok
I never said that, and no I'm not. I was making the point that to many people the point feels true and so tactically it doesn't matter if there is hard evidence.
Like most extreme partisans, you assume any critical point is purely designed to harm your cause. on the contrary, there will be occasions remain say things without firm proof which the public want to believe , or just expect to be true, which will not harm them to have countered. It's political reality, not partisan point scoring. The 'well they would say that' public dismissal of contrary evidence. I don't have to like it to recognise it happens.
As a connected point, your taking one point and extrapolating an extreme position not intended from it is also a standard political not partisan tactic, performed on all sides, so I will not suggest only remainers and undecideds do it.
Good day all.
Ps as someone not in Twitter I personally enjoy tweets being regurgitated. Adds a new element without me needing to make any effort.
I see Project Fear really ramping up the rhetoric this morning EU fuels terror and fascism, warns Gove
Oh, wait, that's the other guys, right?
I would like more context but if Gove has really said that it tops anything in scaremongering that REMAIN politicians have come up with. I always had Gove marked down as an intelligent, thoughtful sort of guy. You expect that sort of guff from Katie Hopkins or Janet Daley but Gove?.
I would like more context but if Gove has really said that it tops anything in scaremongering that REMAIN politicians have come up with.
The London mayor and the justice secretary warned that staying in the EU would make it harder to identify terrorists and keep the UK safe and accused Brussels of fuelling a rise in “Hitler worshippers” across the continent.
In Gove’s first newspaper interview since declaring that he would campaign to leave, he told The Sunday Times that the European Court of Justice has undermined the ability of the UK intelligence agencies to monitor terrorist suspects.
He also blamed the EU for the worst upsurge in the far right “at any time since the 1930s”. Johnson said EU rules were “prejudicial” to British security and the ability to deport terrorists.
"What would be interesting would be a thread on why the Tories have turned so much more eurosceptic than Labour, even though they never used to be. Given some of the EU policies we have seen in recent years, it is odd that there is not more of a left wing critique of the EU. There is certainly room for one. Why does the EU seem to cut across traditional left/right lines? Or maybe it is to do with which strand in national parties is uppermost: trading / jobs vs national sovereignty?"
I don't think it does. If the last several weeks have told us anything about respective positions it's that for the overwhelming majority of LEAVERS it's all aboout wrapping themselves in the flag.
All the rest of the arguments are fig leaves.
The surprise to me is that in 2016 it's still possible for so many otherwise intelligent Tories to still get hung up on things like this
I think people's reasons for supporting one side or the other depends on what matters to them most. I don't think you can draw any conclusions about people's intelligence just because what matters to them does not matter to you. There are honourable reasons for being on either side of this debate. I don't think there is an obviously right or wrong answer.
Anecdote: a very close friend of mine, who has set up his own business, employs people of many different nationalities, has offices in a number of countries and moved to France for 3 years to give his children a European education recently came out for Brexit. I've been surprised by the numbers of people, of whom I would not have expected it, have said that they will vote or are considering voting Leave. Anecdote obviously - and there is time for opinion to change - but still.
Edited: in response to Roger.
Miss CycleFree, I shall be publishing your guest thread around 6.30pm.
Mr. NorthWales, South Korea has a trade deal without free movement, doesn't it?
Also 'free movement' can mean various things. Freedom to move to a guaranteed job (and to leave if unemployed for X months) is a different kettle of monkeys to freedom to come over and stay indefinitely.
Also, that neglects that we'd regain the ability to actually make our own laws instead of having so many imposed by the EU.
Free movement between EU and South Korea is just about meaningless. I do agree that free movement has different meanings - I'm just patiently waiting for LEAVE to tell us which one we will have if they win.
Listening to Wolfgang Schauble on Marr I was impressed with the simple way he explained his regret if UK leave but quite firmly stated that on exit UK would be offered a trade deal but that we would have to pay in and absolutely agree to free movement of labour. This just seems to me to demolish leave's case and they need to come out with a realistic counter argument. Boris on Marr just full of bluster
One German politician, with his own and his country's agenda in mind, makes a vague statement and that is conclusive for remain in your view, Big G
It is difficult for leave to demolish due to his position in the German Government and his influence in the EU but I am undecided as yet on the issue
Full respect, Mr. G, but one politician giving his opinion is as meaningful as another politician giving a different opinion. Schauble is a member of the German government and one whose views do not always hold sway even within that government. To take his opinion as a certain indicator of the future is, I suggest, less than sensible.
"What would be interesting would be a thread on why the Tories have turned so much more eurosceptic than Labour, even though they never used to be.
Given some of the EU policies we have seen in recent years, it is odd that there is not more of a left wing critique of the EU. There is certainly room for one.
Why does the EU seem to cut across traditional left/right lines? Or maybe it is to do with which strand in national parties is uppermost: trading / jobs vs national sovereignty?"
****
It is a very strange phenomenon. Left wing euroscepticism has virtually died out, despite ample evidence that it is more justified than ever, from the austerian Fiskal Pakt to TTIP.
I think the EU has become another sacred cow for atheist centre lefties, who have nothing else to believe in, now that Marxism is dead (it is noticeable that the few sceptic lefties tend to be on the FAR left, i.e. they still believe in Marxism, like Corbyn, so they have other gods to worship)
Europhilia is part of the social democratic creed, like multiculturalism. They don't care to analyse it in any depth, for fear its inherent contradictions will be revealed, in a very painful way.
Some on the left have been honest about this: they want to stay in the EU so that EU law stays supreme over British law so that the British people can't elect a right wing government to do right wing things.
I find it odd too, then again Jezza has deleted all his anti-EU stuff along with screeds of other speeches. He was even against the EU in his Leadership campaign.
"What would be interesting would be a thread on why the Tories have turned so much more eurosceptic than Labour, even though they never used to be.
Given some of the EU policies we have seen in recent years, it is odd that there is not more of a left wing critique of the EU. There is certainly room for one.
Why does the EU seem to cut across traditional left/right lines? Or maybe it is to do with which strand in national parties is uppermost: trading / jobs vs national sovereignty?"
****
It is a very strange phenomenon. Left wing euroscepticism has virtually died out, despite ample evidence that it is more justified than ever, from the austerian Fiskal Pakt to TTIP.
I think the EU has become another sacred cow for atheist centre lefties, who have nothing else to believe in, now that Marxism is dead (it is noticeable that the few sceptic lefties tend to be on the FAR left, i.e. they still believe in Marxism, like Corbyn, so they have other gods to worship)
Europhilia is part of the social democratic creed, like multiculturalism. They don't care to analyse it in any depth, for fear its inherent contradictions will be revealed, in a very painful way.
UKIP and Farage are probably enough to keep most Labour voters in the REMAIN camp
Listening to Wolfgang Schauble on Marr I was impressed with the simple way he explained his regret if UK leave but quite firmly stated that on exit UK would be offered a trade deal but that we would have to pay in and absolutely agree to free movement of labour. This just seems to me to demolish leave's case and they need to come out with a realistic counter argument. Boris on Marr just full of bluster
One German politician, with his own and his country's agenda in mind, makes a vague statement and that is conclusive for remain in your view, Big G?
He was pretty much the definitive source on what the EU would agree to with respect to the Greek palaver.
Yet he has been overruled by Merkel on immigration, severally.
Besides, he really is just a politician, and one who REALLY wants the UK to stay in Europe, not least cause Germany can't afford to fund the show on her own.
If they can't afford to fund the show on her own, doesn't it give weight to the likelihood of Germany playing hardball to keep the UK contributing after Brexit?
Germany can't play hardball because of its trade surplus with Britain
@faisalislam: Germany's finance minister Schauble says Brexit would involve - "Years of difficult negotiations" which would be "poisonous" for UK economy
you are even more of a jelly today than usual. Do you ever leave the house or are you too scared.
It doesn't matter if there was pressure or not. It's not as though anyone admits to pressuring others unreasonably. The problem remains it is very easy to believe it,it's the sort of thing people expect.
So , not to put too fine a point on it, it's a lie.
"What would be interesting would be a thread on why the Tories have turned so much more eurosceptic than Labour, even though they never used to be. Given some of the EU policies we have seen in recent years, it is odd that there is not more of a left wing critique of the EU. There is certainly room for one. Why does the EU seem to cut across traditional left/right lines? Or maybe it is to do with which strand in national parties is uppermost: trading / jobs vs national sovereignty?"
I don't think it does. If the last several weeks have told us anything about respective positions it's that for the overwhelming majority of LEAVERS it's all aboout wrapping themselves in the flag.
All the rest of the arguments are fig leaves.
The surprise to me is that in 2016 it's still possible for so many otherwise intelligent Tories to still get hung up on things like this
I think people's reasons for supporting one side or the other depends on what matters to them most. I don't think you can draw any conclusions about people's intelligence just because what matters to them does not matter to you. There are honourable reasons for being on either side of this debate. I don't think there is an obviously right or wrong answer.
Anecdote: a very close friend of mine, who has set up his own business, employs people of many different nationalities, has offices in a number of countries and moved to France for 3 years to give his children a European education recently came out for Brexit. I've been surprised by the numbers of people, of whom I would not have expected it, have said that they will vote or are considering voting Leave. Anecdote obviously - and there is time for opinion to change - but still.
Edited: in response to Roger.
Miss CycleFree, I shall be publishing your guest thread around 6.30pm.
GOP Trump +8.6 Rubio -1 Cruz + 22 Kasich +11.6 (Most of this is at a bookie though, ~ 0 on Betfair) Ryan +3.5 Romney +4 Bush +7.7 (Back from the dead in purely mathematical terms on Betfair) Bloomberg +4 (No I don't understand it either)
POTUS Clinton 0 Sanders -10.4 Rubio +2.5 Trump +14 Cruz +19.4 Kasich -1.2 Biden +7.1 Bush -2.2 Romney +5.8
DEM Clinton + 44.84 Biden -87.27 Field -42.75 Sanders -52.22
Book Fair values
GOP +10.65 Dem +.3 POTUS +3.4
Field POTUS is just -£137 now (From -£1700 a while back)
Mr. T, what's your current voting intention, or have you been too distracted by Bhutan to contemplate it?
I'm 90% OUT now. Had something of a *moment* in the last few days. I think it would be painful in the short-medium term (and personally painful, too - e.g. London property would take a hit).
However in the long term I think we'd do much better in the EEA or EFTA. Prosperous and sovereign. We'd be a happier country, too. And Westminster democracy would mean something. And so on, and so forth.
Of course I'm a bipolar alcoholic and could easily change my mind 8923 times before June, and I probably will, but this is the most decided I've been so far. The horrible bollocks from Cameron has been an important factor. Plus the veiled threats from Europe.
I couldn't forgive myself if I caved into fear and avarice and voted IN then watched the EU drag us down, and slowly dissolve what's left of our sovereignty.
Do a Murdoch, wait till you can see how it's going, then jump on board and pretend you were right along!
@PickardJE: Odd that @BBCr4today is reporting Boris theory for Longworth suspension without explaining actual reason: he breached BCC neutral position.
But, but, that doesn't fit the Cameron betrayal narrative...
Ah, undecided Scott P with his 783rd pro-REMAIN comment in a row.
I can accept the mad europhiles on here who admit their perversion. It's those who affect some lofty neutrality that are emetic.
everyone knows Scott is a rabid unionist europhile Tory plan(t)k. He thinks he is fooling people , LOL
Listening to Wolfgang Schauble on Marr I was impressed with the simple way he explained his regret if UK leave but quite firmly stated that on exit UK would be offered a trade deal but that we would have to pay in and absolutely agree to free movement of labour. This just seems to me to demolish leave's case and they need to come out with a realistic counter argument. Boris on Marr just full of bluster
One German politician, with his own and his country's agenda in mind, makes a vague statement and that is conclusive for remain in your view, Big G
It is difficult for leave to demolish due to his position in the German Government and his influence in the EU but I am undecided as yet on the issue
Full respect, Mr. G, but one politician giving his opinion is as meaningful as another politician giving a different opinion. Schauble is a member of the German government and one whose views do not always hold sway even within that government. To take his opinion as a certain indicator of the future is, I suggest, less than sensible.
I think the problem for leave is that he is an influential politician in Germany and the EU and his argument has a logic as free movement of labour is the holy grail of the EU. His interview was followed by Boris's 'car crash' and Gove's project fear article in the Sunday Times. Not a good morning for leave
Cameron's referendum strategic is almost Pyrrhic (except that Pyrrhus wanted to win the war, not merely battles). It's foolish, short-sighted and really quite stupid. Cameron's riling up the backbenches and sceptics, and making it likelier for a sceptic to do well in the contest to succeed him.
Edited extra bit: Mr. kle4, by the 'other' Turkey story, d'you mean one beside the state occupation of a newspaper and, if so, what was it?
The constant problems the eurosceptic "bastards" have caused in the Tory party for 25 years are very similar to the problems the Tea Party activists have caused in the GOP. Very vocal groups with numerous obsessives amongst them that are a turn-off to other voters particularly on the centre ground..
So far the Tories have done better at overcoming the handicap but they have gone a very strong position post Corbyn to ferrets fighting in a sack in the space of 6 months.
We now have a dysfunctional government to add to our dysfunctional opposition!
Those 'bastards' represent at least half if not the majority of the Tory party on current polling evidence.
Besides quoting Major - the man who so fundamentally misunderstood the EU that he allowed them to screw him over and then wrote them a letter moaning about it - is not exactly the best way to make your case. It is a shame there weren't more of the 'bastards' around at the time or Major might not have been made to look such a complete fool.
I wasn't calling them "bastards" hence the inverted commas. I was pointing out how they undermine the Tories in the same way the Tea Party do in US.
@PickardJE: Odd that @BBCr4today is reporting Boris theory for Longworth suspension without explaining actual reason: he breached BCC neutral position.
But, but, that doesn't fit the Cameron betrayal narrative...
Ah, undecided Scott P with his 783rd pro-REMAIN comment in a row.
I can accept the mad europhiles on here who admit their perversion. It's those who affect some lofty neutrality that are emetic.
everyone knows Scott is a rabid unionist europhile Tory plan(t)k. He thinks he is fooling people , LOL
For me, today,the biggest OUT argument is the lack of any EU political and journalist culture. There simply is no one holding it to account. National govts get all the scrutiny. And the EU largely escapes.
It's possible that something might emerge in the same way as the NYTimes can hold the US federal govt to account, but it's a long way off.
I don't buy arguments about sovereignty at all.
Interesting, as that's effectively the same thing.
"What would be interesting would be a thread on why the Tories have turned so much more eurosceptic than Labour, even though they never used to be. Given some of the EU policies we have seen in recent years, it is odd that there is not more of a left wing critique of the EU. There is certainly room for one. Why does the EU seem to cut across traditional left/right lines? Or maybe it is to do with which strand in national parties is uppermost: trading / jobs vs national sovereignty?"
I don't think it does. If the last several weeks have told us anything about respective positions it's that for the overwhelming majority of LEAVERS it's all aboout wrapping themselves in the flag.
All the rest of the arguments are fig leaves.
The surprise to me is that in 2016 it's still possible for so many otherwise intelligent Tories to still get hung up on things like this
I think people's reasons for supporting one side or the other depends on what matters to them most. I don't think you can draw any conclusions about people's intelligence just because what matters to them does not matter to you. There are honourable reasons for being on either side of this debate. I don't think there is an obviously right or wrong answer.
Anecdote: a very close friend of mine, who has set up his own business, employs people of many different nationalities, has offices in a number of countries and moved to France for 3 years to give his children a European education recently came out for Brexit. I've been surprised by the numbers of people, of whom I would not have expected it, have said that they will vote or are considering voting Leave. Anecdote obviously - and there is time for opinion to change - but still.
Edited: in response to Roger.
Miss CycleFree, I shall be publishing your guest thread around 6.30pm.
It is an excellent read, I'm going to insist by using all my charm that she becomes a regular PB thread writer
"What would be interesting would be a thread on why the Tories have turned so much more eurosceptic than Labour, even though they never used to be.
Given some of the EU policies we have seen in recent years, it is odd that there is not more of a left wing critique of the EU. There is certainly room for one.
Why does the EU seem to cut across traditional left/right lines? Or maybe it is to do with which strand in national parties is uppermost: trading / jobs vs national sovereignty?"
****
It is a very strange phenomenon. Left wing euroscepticism has virtually died out, despite ample evidence that it is more justified than ever, from the austerian Fiskal Pakt to TTIP.
I think the EU has become another sacred cow for atheist centre lefties, who have nothing else to believe in, now that Marxism is dead (it is noticeable that the few sceptic lefties tend to be on the FAR left, i.e. they still believe in Marxism, like Corbyn, so they have other gods to worship)
Europhilia is part of the social democratic creed, like multiculturalism. They don't care to analyse it in any depth, for fear its inherent contradictions will be revealed, in a very painful way.
Some on the left have been honest about this: they want to stay in the EU so that EU law stays supreme over British law so that the British people can't elect a right wing government to do right wing things.
But the EU does some incredibly right wing things. Corbyn can't nationalise the railways because of the EU. The Fiskal Pakt makes Osbornomics look like Gordon Brown feeling generous.
It's like the Left just don't want to see this. They close their eyes and pretend it isn't there.
Comments
I can't think of a single Tory member posting here who has suggested anything like this at all.
I'd rather we weren't here, but we are and have to deal with fire, with fire
@BethRigby: Those 'younger, fitter journalists' on it #Marr #BoJo https://t.co/YUqZHXW8sE
@itvnews: Downing Street: 'No pressure' was put on BCC to suspend John Longworth https://t.co/gdVpWA4IPH https://t.co/mRekXiYRDz
So Boris made it up Only 4 months to go...
Oh dear
Also 'free movement' can mean various things. Freedom to move to a guaranteed job (and to leave if unemployed for X months) is a different kettle of monkeys to freedom to come over and stay indefinitely.
Also, that neglects that we'd regain the ability to actually make our own laws instead of having so many imposed by the EU.
Meanwhile, since it's been a while since we've had a "What the hell is Corbyn up to now?!" moment, I'm posting this - http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/Jeremy_Corbyn/12181673/Labour-anti-Semitism-row-threatens-to-divide-the-Party.html.
Not exactly the sort of article to calm the typical expat's nerves on this issue - and it's from the pro-Brexit Telegraph!
@JamesTapsfield: Boris says there "might or might not" be an economic shock from Brexit
"What would be interesting would be a thread on why the Tories have turned so much more eurosceptic than Labour, even though they never used to be.
Given some of the EU policies we have seen in recent years, it is odd that there is not more of a left wing critique of the EU. There is certainly room for one.
Why does the EU seem to cut across traditional left/right lines? Or maybe it is to do with which strand in national parties is uppermost: trading / jobs vs national sovereignty?"
I don't think it does. If the last several weeks have told us anything about respective positions it's that for the overwhelming majority of LEAVERS it's all aboout wrapping themselves in the flag.
All the rest of the arguments are fig leaves.
The surprise to me is that in 2016 it's still possible for so many otherwise intelligent Tories to still get hung up on things like this
The problem for the Conservatives in this one is not that the party is split on the issue, Labour was in 1975, it is Cameron. His leadership skills are really quite dreadful, he really couldn't lead the proverbial squad of ducklings across a fire bucket. On top of which he seems to be so desperate to win that he is, as Mr KLE4 says, overselling a deal which in no way matched what he said he wanted to achieve at the outset and seems to be content to wreck his party for the sake of victory on this issue.
I wonder if he would behave differently if there was a credible opposition. I doubt it, but it might be nice for their to be an alternative party ready for government.
It doesn't matter if there was pressure or not. It's not as though anyone admits to pressuring others unreasonably. The problem remains it is very easy to believe it,it's the sort of thing people expect.
Probably not, but I think they are aware that the likes of IDS and Grayling would have gone long ago were it not for their positions as leading Eurosceptics in the party. Getting rid of IDS in particular would probably be worth a couple of percentage points in the polls.
I find it odd too, then again Jezza has deleted all his anti-EU stuff along with screeds of other speeches. He was even against the EU in his Leadership campaign.
So far the Tories have done better at overcoming the handicap but they have gone a very strong position post Corbyn to ferrets fighting in a sack in the space of 6 months.
We now have a dysfunctional government to add to our dysfunctional opposition!
Ok
Hang on.....
Why, though, has the right - or elements of it - turned against the EU?
Anyway, I've laid off my quite large cruz position entirely @ 4.2 & 19 - happy enough that those odds represent something approaching fair value.
I'm not confident I can spot the value in the market so I'm pretty much swimming water right now. I did lay potus Donald @ 5.2, but I'm still not completely sure about that one.
We did this to death some days ago
We sell the EU ~40% of our stuff
They sell us ~10% of their stuff
Which side has the Upper hand in the negotiations?
Have to admit Boris doesn't help himself, he is such a poor speaker. Would struggle massively at the despatch box. PMQs would have to last two hours.
Besides quoting Major - the man who so fundamentally misunderstood the EU that he allowed them to screw him over and then wrote them a letter moaning about it - is not exactly the best way to make your case. It is a shame there weren't more of the 'bastards' around at the time or Major might not have been made to look such a complete fool.
@RuthDavidsonMSP: Is it just me or is Boris floundering here? Not sure the bumble-bluster, kitten smirk, tangent-bombast routine is cutting through. #Marr
@BBCJLandale: Interesting: Boris unclear on whether post-Brexit UK should be in or out of single market. Most Leavers say not, preferring FTA
Has anyone found anything interesting out there?
Or is there nothing interesting to say about Potus or Brexit until something new happens.
Like most extreme partisans, you assume any critical point is purely designed to harm your cause. on the contrary, there will be occasions remain say things without firm proof which the public want to believe , or just expect to be true, which will not harm them to have countered. It's political reality, not partisan point scoring. The 'well they would say that' public dismissal of contrary evidence. I don't have to like it to recognise it happens.
Quoting people like Janet Daly and Katie Hopkins probably harms your cause rather than helps it.
How much does South Korea pay into the EU pot? Does South Korea have to accept anyone from the EU that wants to go and live there? Yet they manage to sell very well into the European Market. How can that be?
Most of us felt that they shouldn’t, unless, perhaps, they made it clear at the time that the organisation had different views.
Funny thing politics.
I'd scanned them all by 8am and bored. Twitter hasn't unearthed anything amusing either so far.
Which odds are better value in your eyes?
Of course in any negotiation the UK would not be pleading for help as Greece was, unless Cameron is in charge of it.
Anecdote: a very close friend of mine, who has set up his own business, employs people of many different nationalities, has offices in a number of countries and moved to France for 3 years to give his children a European education recently came out for Brexit. I've been surprised by the numbers of people, of whom I would not have expected it, have said that they will vote or are considering voting Leave. Anecdote obviously - and there is time for opinion to change - but still.
Edited: in response to Roger.
I traded bady a week ago so I am doing worse than I was but I've gone from
Trump +1
Cruz+6.5
Rubio-1
Field 0
To
Trump+2
Cruz+.5
Ryan/Romeny +.5
Field 0
Given I think Trump has this locked up I am happy with where I am.
It's possible that something might emerge in the same way as the NYTimes can hold the US federal govt to account, but it's a long way off.
I don't buy arguments about sovereignty at all.
Good day all.
Ps as someone not in Twitter I personally enjoy tweets being regurgitated. Adds a new element without me needing to make any effort.
If we are going to discuss the political implications of Boris' dirty tricks claim, worth knowing that serious journalists think it's bollocks.
And if we are betting on Cameron's successor, worth knowing the commentariat view (and senior Tories) that Boris had a shocker
Just to clarify: A small nation makes 1/4 of a market despite that market being six-times larger.
I would like more context but if Gove has really said that it tops anything in scaremongering that REMAIN politicians have come up with. I always had Gove marked down as an intelligent, thoughtful sort of guy. You expect that sort of guff from Katie Hopkins or Janet Daley but Gove?.
On Sunday
Project FearRational argument from the Outers...Free movement between EU and South Korea is just about meaningless.
I do agree that free movement has different meanings - I'm just patiently waiting for LEAVE to tell us which one we will have if they win.
So , not to put too fine a point on it, it's a lie.
GOP
Trump +8.6
Rubio -1
Cruz + 22
Kasich +11.6 (Most of this is at a bookie though, ~ 0 on Betfair)
Ryan +3.5
Romney +4
Bush +7.7 (Back from the dead in purely mathematical terms on Betfair)
Bloomberg +4 (No I don't understand it either)
POTUS
Clinton 0
Sanders -10.4
Rubio +2.5
Trump +14
Cruz +19.4
Kasich -1.2
Biden +7.1
Bush -2.2
Romney +5.8
DEM
Clinton + 44.84
Biden -87.27
Field -42.75
Sanders -52.22
Book Fair values
GOP +10.65
Dem +.3
POTUS +3.4
Field POTUS is just -£137 now (From -£1700 a while back)
Might I ask what employment you have ?
Apart from bleating and tweeting on this site all day and every day.
I work in export manufacturing and can tell you your logic is bollox.