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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Cruz wins the most delegates tonight but it looks like tonight was goodnight Rubio Saturday
Summary of tonight's results. GOP: 2 states apiece for Trump & Cruz. Cruz gets the most delegates. pic.twitter.com/1qPi0H2Lt0
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Hasn't Carson dropped out already?
Cruz has enjoyed another moment in the sun but the delegate rich winner takes all state doomsday approaches and Trump will crush Cruz there.
On the Dem side the narrative remains the same. Clinton cruising to a comfortable win with Sanders picking up morale boosting but effectively inconsequential wins.
Clinton v Trump in November and a comfortable win for Hillary.
From the BBC's round-up of the papers (because I don't get the ST):
Cripes! No exclamation allowed!
According to the Sunday Times, "teachers are up in arms" because ministers want to cut use of the punctuation mark and this is reflected in the latest guidance for schools. "Sentences ending with an exclamation mark can be marked correct only if they begin with 'How' or 'What'," the paper says.
I would do a thread on it, but the afternoon thread is about STDs and monkey shit, and I don't want to lower the tone
https://sports.paddypower.mobi/?#sport/33/competition/13089/event/10270323
Driverless lorries.
AIUI (and I might be wrong), if it's like the German scheme, then there will be drivers in each lorry. It's just that when they're on that stretch of motorway they won't be driven by the drivers. And it's a short stretch of motorway with very specific (and simple) conditions.
The advantage is that when you get lorries drafting each other then fuel efficiency increases significantly - lorry drivers do this to a certain extent atm, but not as close as an automated system can.
The disadvantage is obvious: drivers trying to join the motorway finding the sliproad blocked by many lorries in a solid queue, and cars passing the lorries wanting to exit at a sliproad cannot get between them. Both problems can be fixed by an 'intelligent' system on the lorries, and better driving skills by car drivers. Which means the disadvantages are still there ...
I think such a system was tried in Germany in the 1970s with cars. Motorway driving is the simplest automation to do, and orders of magnitude simpler than urban driving. It'll also be interesting to see how the system copes with the sometimes severe weather you get on that particular stretch of motorway.
The day of automated cars for everyone is still many years away. What we are getting at the moment is very clever smoke and mirrors.
(1 mark)
Dr. Foxinsox, whilst seriously unimpressed with Cameron recently, the story was described the 'journalist' who included it in her biography as probably untrue, had a single source and no evidence.
By that bar, someone could say the same about anyone.
On-topic: who would Clinton prefer to face?
Wouldn't back Leicester in the circumstances but the price looks generous.
And to my mind Trump has no chance in the November erection
Lets wait for him to win lily white Maine before laying him more though.
The only comparable I can remember was during the "headless man" scandal when Denning arranged for each member of the Cabinet to be physically examined to determine who the guilty party*
* Denning claimed that his decision was made on the basis of handwriting analysis (but this analysis was never made public). The above is the version I was told by one of those people who had been, um, checked out.
No, sorry, it must be a CCHQ smokescreen designed to hide some other revelation.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/no-moles-no-growths-but-clinton-has-his-blemishes-1294429.html
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-35738861
Shueb Salar is alleged to have posted abusive language about women and homosexuals on Twitter, in 2012.
That said this is political betting dotcom and there is a betting market on the size of Trump's todger.
It would be wrong of me not to mention the political betting opportunities.
It's hard to spot the winner, but 1.64 is too short for it to be Trump.
The momentum is clearly with Cruz, and maybe some of the party's establishment have reluctantly accepted that he is better than Trump. Yes they hate him but the risk for them is not just that they lose the Presidential but both houses as well in a Goldwater-style humiliation if Trump is their candidate.
:off-for-a-deserved-walk:
If it comes to a brokered convention Trump the guy with all the cards, he is the only one that can, and will, run as a third party candidate on the basis of betrayal. His line is "give it to me or I'll bring the whole thing down in flames around me"
They may not *like* him bit they *loathe* Hilary. He's not going to blink, if he has the most delegates, he's the guy.
At least Cameron is consistent.
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2016/03/pre-season-f1-2016-predictions-and.html
Although to be fair, Labour f'd themselves very well without Cameron's help. Their problems all originate in the events leading to Brown's coronation.
Or invaded Iraq.
Erdogan and Putin should stop the pissing contest and just get a room.
Edited extra bit: Russian link: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-35715325
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/us/elections/primary-calendar-and-results.html?_r=0
On the Democrat side, Sanders will get a boost today in Maine, but Michigan is his best chance to slow the Clinton juggernaut, and he probably won't quite succeed. But on the GOP side, Tuesday has Michigan, which Kasich could well win (2 points ahead in latest poll) and endorsed by the leading local paper) and Mississippi, which Trump has leading in by 41-17 last month, but should now be closer. March 15 has three big winner-takes-all/most states, FL, OH and IL. Kasich should now take OH. The other two, who knows now. And then we move on to big northern and western states where Trump is generally not as strong.
The path to a Trump majority is difficult, and getting e.g. Rubio supporters to back him after all he's said about Rubio will be really hard unless he's been winning recent primaries, such as California. I don't think Trump should be better than evens (disclosure: I have a £30 lay on him).
One might be noisy and attract attention but is basically harmless. The other is silent but deadly.
They do so, because like a pressure valve, they release the truth that parties are not coherent, stable things and that there is often more tension within parties than between them. They are bombs waiting to go off.
Cameron finally has a chance to defeat the people who have been causing him the most trouble for 10 years. I expect he wants to annihilate them.
Yes, exclamation marks are over-used. See, for example, Agatha Christie or R. F. Delderfield. But an organisation that made three unintentional mistakes in the grammar section of its own literacy test is in no position to preach to others on punctuation. Especially since in creative writing it indicates a tone of voice not a grammar construct.
I hope every teacher will prove them wrong by shouting 'F@&k off grasshoppers!' at every opportunity.
Cameron's referendum strategic is almost Pyrrhic (except that Pyrrhus wanted to win the war, not merely battles). It's foolish, short-sighted and really quite stupid. Cameron's riling up the backbenches and sceptics, and making it likelier for a sceptic to do well in the contest to succeed him.
Edited extra bit: Mr. kle4, by the 'other' Turkey story, d'you mean one beside the state occupation of a newspaper and, if so, what was it?
We would have to see more post debate polls to see if there has been an impact, not convinced there has been a lasting impact.
Interestingly, Zaman (the Turkish newspaper) was very pro-Erdogan - a few years ago it was the last paper you'd expect to see the government take over. But unfortunately it's a Gulen-backing newspaper, so when Gulen and Erdogan had their fallout the paper backed the former.
Another example of how it's hard to talk about Turkish politics without mentioning Gulen. I really wish I could get a handle on him, as the future of the country might be more in his hands than Erdogan's ...
Whereas before she talked about Brexit people felt she was tolerant and intelligent? Hmm.
My guess is he and his inner circle knew that, nonsense about politeness and accepting the result, he will face calls to stand down even if he wins, and they see the only way to resist that as an overwhelming win. He cannot heal the rift in his party and so has instead decided not to even try, but get such public support for his pick in the ref that his clique remain in control, as we know the party split is not as decisive as leave,s noise makes it seem.
I cannot help thinking that many on here complaining about his actions (real or perceived) would be less vociferous if he were doing the same things and on their side ...
Personally, I'm just thankful he's given me a referendum. I've wanted one for at least ten or fifteen years, if not longer. He's given me the referendum I wanted, and now I can choose.
The only person in the POTUS market who we can perhaps rule out is Bloomberg.
Sanders too.
And maybe Rubio. I don't want to put a big red on him in case he does something in FL though, and who knows at this point on the GOP side.
Assuming they keep that up they will collect 7 points from those, with just four other games to go. They will be doing well to get 19 from the last nine,
Leicester need a maximum of 15 points from their last nine, in my view. They should have most of those on the board by mid April with Newcastle, Crystal Palace and Sunderland in their imminent matches.
Not many people, but Plato herself? Quite possibly.
Janet Daley in pro-Brexit shocker. Next. Of course it's true most of those people do wish to come to Britain. With the UK out of EU there is no incentive for France to help us out. An inconvenient truth?
Beautiful state though. As long as you don't go there in black fly season.
Doesn't mean I don't agree Cameron has massively oversold d a crap deal, or that he is not now throwing the kitchen sink at his opponents within the party, because I do, and I'll still be voting leave. But as someone outside the Tories I think his internal critics are overselling his malevolence and unfairness while underplaying their own. It's a political battle, it was clear it would get ugly and it is. Just fight it without going overboard for once, both sides.
Obviously that won't happen. A eurosceptic is needed as others have said if remain win o heal the rift or at leadt quiet it. But will the victorious remainers acceot that?the problem remains, ha, that the party is do split on this viral issue lots are unhappy no matter what.
I just wonder/fear where this will go next.
I'm making a point on here and Twitter of being polite when engaging with fellow Tories who hold another view. When I think they're talking tosh, I don't reply.
As our friends across the pond say ... Do the math.
Which non Trump candidate has the numbers in the coming races, especially with upcoming WTA contests, to stop the Big Todger?
Cruz is a caucus show pony with little pull elsewhere and Rubio and Kasich are one or two hit wonders on the cusp of exiting the race. There is no doubt that Trump is the hair apparent and only the margin is to be determined.
(The Tories might even end up a mainstream centrist party who normal people can vote for without embarrassment)
That is certainly a risk. But it's surely also a risk for France if even more migrants descend on France in the hope of getting to the UK. Being an even bigger transit camp is not in France 's interests. Not to mention the steps which the UK could take against Eurotunnel or, in extremis, the closure of the tunnel.
But the wider point is surely this. We're not going to get into some sort of Cold War with France if we're not in the EU. Countries have interests. And they generally try to act in their interests. And if they are silly enough not to, well, why would we want to be an organisation with them.
A moderate Out-er as leader, who heals.
Another referendum in a 10 to 15 years.
A vote for Out.
I'd reckon Labour will have a brief and unhappy time in power 2025 to 2030, then a BOO Conservative Party will win in 2030.
I haven't operated that way since my balls dropped.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12183729/Our-pompous-bigoted-elite-have-not-even-bothered-to-consider-the-case-for-Brexit.html
The best thing going in Trump's favour is that Cruz is no more attractive to the GOP establishment and moderate GOP voters than he is. Cruz is not the ideal candidate for the party to rally around. If Rubio had the momentum that Cruz has right now Trump would be in serious trouble.
Overall I would say Trump's chances are about 70-75% for the nomination. We will know one way or the other by 15th!
Mr. T, what's your current voting intention, or have you been too distracted by Bhutan to contemplate it?
EU fuels terror and fascism, warns Gove
Oh, wait, that's the other guys, right?
With Trump, they can blame the mood of the voters for a weird aberration - and plan for normality some time down the line. With Cruz, they just lost their party.
But, but, that doesn't fit the Cameron betrayal narrative...
The polling evidence suggests the whole issue is not so important to either voters or members. As so often the noise on here and in the media is maybe not so accurate.
It's hugely important in the Tory party, which is what we are discussing. Anyone who thinks otherwise is an idiot or a myopic europhile, if there is a difference between the two. It's THE issue. It's the issue that toppled Thatcher and did for Major. Denying this is futile.
Anyone who disagrees with you - on any subject - is idiotic, vicious or both, eh, Sean?
I haven't operated that way since my balls dropped.
That's the way viewcode and flightpath operate, perhaps you Remainers had better get used to it, as I said last night if you can't take it don't dish it out.
Meantime the statement Boris came out with is perfect, whether Downing Street are behind it or not the damage has been done by Boris. This will resonate with thousands of small business owners up and down the land:
"He speaks for the many small and medium sized businesses - the lifeblood of the economy - who cannot understand why they should comply with more and more regulation, over which this country has no democratic control."
Given some of the EU policies we have seen in recent years, it is odd that there is not more of a left wing critique of the EU. There is certainly room for one.
Why does the EU seem to cut across traditional left/right lines? Or maybe it is to do with which strand in national parties is uppermost: trading / jobs vs national sovereignty?
And therein lies the Republican's dilemma!
How on earth did we get here? An Opposition leader who was almost universally regarded as an unelectable joke (at least outside of highly specialised circles) six months ago is now apparently locked in an unbreakable popular tie with a Prime Minister whose government has engineered a remarkable economic recovery. Either the Conservatives have run a quite spectacularly disastrous election campaign – or this isn’t actually happening.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/03/06/cruz-wins-the-most-delegates-tonight-but-it-looks-like-tonight-was-goodnight-rubio-saturday/#vanilla-comments
How insighntful was that compared to the najority view on PB.com at that time?!
Who would the moderate Outer be? Boris - is he really an Outer?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11578417/Why-I-trust-in-the-voters-to-use-their-common-sense.html