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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Two months before the 2011 AV referendum the polls were pointing to a YES victory
The table shows the published AV referendum polls for February/early March in 2011 about two months before the election in early May. As can be seen all the online polls had leads for the YES camp. The only phone poll, ICM, had it level-pegging.
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Huzzah for another AV thread.
Kept Scotland in the union for a generation.
Destroyed the Lib Dems, for whom past Tory leaders couldn't shift like a bad STD
Gove improved education standards.
IDS has launched excellent welfare reform
Ozzy has unleashed a jobs miracle as part of a wider economic miracle
Introduced same sex marriage.
What a time to be a one nation Tory.
He drove Labour mad and they elected Corbyn.
Far inferior to i
To get out the Eurosceptic vote the Leave campaign needs to win the vast majority of the right wing Tory style voters first and foremost and appeal to lefties secondary. This again is what I said which you objected to so vehemently: I stand by that Euroscepticism is at its highest by and large where the right wing vote is highest. I never said that it's not a WWC right-wing vote did I? Just that it's not a hell hole.
I do not think Warrington is a hellhole. I don't think isam considers Havering to be a hellhole. While we do indeed have more right wing voters than our neighbours. I fail to understand what I've written that is objectionable to you.
There are a lot of grumpy sectors out there, several of them that vote.
Emmm
Edit - was it to or from Hobart?
Dave always needed Lab, Lib Dem et al support to win the referendum.
The Tories polled 37% last year. To win a majority you need over 50%.
I know you don't understand politics that well, so stop talking about the EU referendum, you're embrassing yourself.
So if this Dave's Iraq, how many Brits will die and how many Iraqis will die?
Have you started talking hyperbole pills instead of your viagra?
Anyone with half a clue knew UKIP would win, yet at this stage, "The Gold Standard" had them 15% behind Labour in third place
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament_election,_2014_(United_Kingdom)#Opinion_polls
"Euroscepticism is at its highest by and large where the right wing vote is the highest" - how much clearer does that need to be?
I'm really looking forward to editing PB during the final stages of the referendum.
Trump: 35
Rubio: 22
Cruz: 15
Carson: 7
Casich: 6
http://www.wbko.com/content/news/Big-Red-Poll-results-for-the-GOP-presidential-caucus-370517271.html
It might be the eau de anti-establishment ambrosia that Sanders has doused himself in, but he appears to be appealing to the overwhelmingly white, middle to lower-middle class Democratic voters in Oklahoma in ways that he hasn’t been able to with minorities in other parts of the South (see: South Carolina). Eighty-two percent of Oklahoma’s 2008 Democratic primary voters were white and half had yearly household incomes between $30,000 and $75,000.
Trump by 13 lengths.
'Imbecility, imbecility' was how Powell put it
Edit: Actually I think it may be less demanding than that.
'Can someone list Ted Heath's accomplishments'
3 day week and giving more away to the EU than Blair.
But, the political elite know best.. and look at the state of the place now
He's TSE's father
Trade union reform, inflation, Sunningdale agreement, 3 day week, unemployment over a million, decline of the Scottish Conservatives after renaming the party, messy local government reorganisation in 1974, totally misleading propaganda and underhand tactics used in joining the EEC.......and lets not mention his nefarious private activities.
Enoch Powell was mistaken on a number of things, but on Heath he was absolutely right.
If leaving goes less smoothly or turns into something like a crisis then Cameron (and the whole Conservative Party) will be blamed for triggering it and that will obscure anything else he has achieved.
Contains the line, Enoch Powell ruined the lives of more children than your average paedophile and didn't have the courage to admit he was wrong
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/02/28/michael-gove-could-be-set-to-play-the-role-of-brutus-to-david-camerons-caesar/
If you believe the polling then many if not the majority of those who are going to vote Remain don't think the EU is a good thing and probably wouldn't think that it was a good thing for us to join in the first place. It is at best a necessary evil to them.
This is the problem that Cameron will have after a Remain win. As soon as it becomes clear that Cameron's deal is worthless and things start to get worse there are a lot of people on the Remain side who are going to feel very betrayed. Worse for Cameron they will feel guilty or having been taken for a ride.
I don't really give much for his legacy. Heath will look like the epitome of honesty alongside Cameron.
With the DUP advocating Leave, could the Ulster Scots be responsible for the Scots leaving the UK?
"...four different opinion polls, Gallup, ORC, NOP and Daily Express, all recorded overwhelming public support for him. Gallup recorded 74%, ORC 82%, NOP 67% and the Express 79%.
The corresponding opinion figures against were 15%, 12%, 19% and 17%.
On the question of whether Heath had been right to dismiss him, three of the same polls, in the same order, gave the figures for Heath as 20%, 18% and 25% and against him 69%, 73% and 61%.
The Daily Express poll did not ask about the dismissal."
http://www.ukapologetics.net/11/powell.htm
She is taking a suitcase full of easter eggs for her Kenyan colleagues.
Surely they will melt?
I was in a graveyard in Wicklow where a whole line of headstones said Osborne.
http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2016/02/banning-leave-ministers-from-getting-civil-service-support-is-both-wrong-and-dangerous.html
'Destroyed the Lib Dems' - small acorns but they're making a comeback in local government elections, and as Fianna Fail have shown in the past week that parties can bounce back quite quickly from major setbacks, so that's rather premature
'Gove improved education standards' - it takes years for improvements / declines in standards to be felt
'More jobs' - yes but at what cost to real wages and take home pay for most?
To that you can add the increasing adverse effects coming through of the common purpose agenda, the drive to curtail civil liberties with an increasing police state - witness the incident last week at the school in Hedge End, Hampshire where a 15 year old boy had police called to the school just for looking at UKIP and EDL websites. Add the total failure of dealing with paedophiles in public life, the secretive family courts, totally misguided energy policy driven by spurious global warming concerns, misguided foreign policy in Libya, Yemen, Syria, Russia and Turkey to name but a few places......and we haven't had the global sovereign debt crisis yet which will lay waste far more to their record over whatever time remains of the Conservatives being in power.
Labour Left's idea of 'progress' and 'fairness' is completely toxic to them, paying far too little regard to notions of family, hard work and contribution. They are also proud of the country they come from and what their families did to build and protect it.
In hindsight a Leave victory could definitely be seen as one too. The difference is that the PM isn't ramping up interest rates to avoid it.
Tanzania and Kilimanjaro gave me a taste for that region - didn't have chance to go to the Serengeti but would like to, although I was pleased to take in 4 days of Zanzibar - Stone Town with its fusion of African and Arabic influence plus the colonial legacy is quite unlike anywhere else I've been.
'imbecility, imbecility' would be a good description of John Major's approach to the ERM and sterling in 1992.
My favourite imbecility from back then is Major's ludicrous bluster about Sterling replacing the D-Mark as the key currency in the ERM.
TSE. Time to take a break please.
The EU has a great many flaws. It's also done a great many positive things. So the question is how do you balance that. The problem is the flaws keep ratcheting up and the positive parts seem to be banked and not increasing rapidly at all and could probably (but not definitely) be maintained now from the outside.
Ohio and Florida polling is quite close at this stage.
My view of fairness certainly includes working hard not hardly working and that's the difference now between left and right it seems.
The bad smell keeps hanging around, unfortunately
2/1 : 1/2
I've laid some Hillary @ 1.61, even though I expect that price to hold or shorten a bit more over the next 48 hrs.
The value is still on trump @ 3/1.
Go back to your roots. Everybody's roots....
We take chocolate to Thailand, and it's OK IF we can get it into a 'fridge quickly after we land. We're OK because after we collect our cases we're max. an hour from where we're going.
Good idea to keep it in the 'fridge before packing too.
http://www.knoxnews.com/news/politics/us-rep-desjarlais-casts-ballot-for-trump-during-early-voting-2ced5b73-76f2-7bac-e053-0100007fd265-370524041.html
"U.S. Rep. Scott DesJarlais on Monday became the first member of Tennessee's congressional delegation to say he is supporting Donald Trump for president."
That's the 3rd representative for Trump.
'...common purpose agenda...'
Danger Danger Danger. Loony toon nutjob alert!!!
Apparently lands at 9pm and 40 mins airport to ftidge
"Case closed" Whoops
But, on the EU, time and again I feel he's badly let me down.
I love people.
'I'll do my damned duty on refugees,' says Merkel as it emerges nine out of ten Germans want limits on migrants coming to country
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3469535/I-ll-damned-duty-refugees-says-Merkel-emerges-nine-ten-Germans-want-limits-migrants-coming-country.html