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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » 2016 Oscar betting: Roger marks your card

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    Pulpstar said:

    Stephens-Davidowitz
    @seththoughts

    I know, we're all immune to "Trump is going to collapse" arguments. But he has dropped big-time in markets tonight. This was a bad night.

    Trump has had bad nights before and won the primary. What we might be seeing is that Cruz had a bad night leaving Rubio as the the more obvious anti-Trump contender.
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    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    Pulpstar said:

    Stephens-Davidowitz ‏@seththoughts 4h4 hours ago Manhattan, NY

    @LJZigerell http://predictwise.com From 75 % to 70 %.

    LOL

    And yet the voodoo polls on most of the US politics and network sites had about 70% of viewers calling it a win for Trump.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,037
    Scott_P said:

    RobD said:

    The more discerning viewer tunes into This Week ;)

    For readers of this blog below the age of 50, "tunes into" refers to the archaic practise of selecting programmes on the wireless by adjusting a large tuning knob on the fascia of the instrument.
    Common parlance for any PB Tory, I'm sure.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,037

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Just watched QT, we all know how dreadful Abbott is but if Truss is the best the tories can put forward our politics is at an all time though. Stuffed dummies parrotting rehearsed lines.

    I like that vicar.

    Truss is absolutely dreadful. I cannot forget (or forgive) that awful conference speech.
    Let's put aside parties, look at Abbott and Truss, the highest profile political panel show of the week and that's what we see. We have to choose between these idiots.
    The more discerning viewer tunes into This Week ;)
    Indeed - always avoid QT but tune into This Week - though unfortunately Lammy isn't the brightest button in the drawer. (Nice, but dim.) Portillo often is the voice of reason. Brillo does a good job of actually asking pertinent questions, which is something you never get with the likes of Dimblebore or Marr.
    CornishBlueNun? ;)
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    Indigo said:

    There is an brief item in today's Time Magazine with some rather less usual Oscar bets available

    http://time.com/money/4238000/weird-oscar-bets-academy-awards/

    For example, with odds of 21:1, you can potentially make money off an Oscar victor falling on stage while receiving their award.
    etc



    Not as bad as (what was it?) TSE staying up until the small hours to see if the bet he'd made on the colour of Mitt Romney's tie came true.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,593
    By the way how on earth was Sadness overlooked for best supporting actress? An amazing performance full of subtlety and nuance.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,139
    CD13 said:

    To be fair to the films, they do tend to show more realistic damage now, even if they recover from them easily. I remember the 1950s cowboy films. A gunfight in the saloon, the man is shot three times at close range with a 45 calibre pistol and slumps to the ground without a mark on him. His clean shirt unmarked and his noble face clean-shaven despite three weeks on the range.

    Obviously killed by the noise, or else a sudden and massive heart attack.

    Notoriously weak hearts, Cowboys, it was the unspoken tragedy of the time.

    On film, obviously film violence is supposed to be entertaining much of the time, it's not meant to seem real and we can tell the difference - the often understatedness of real footage of violence can be all the more disturbing as a result of not being flashy and cinematic, even vs purportedly realistic cinema. Movie classifications even make distinction between violence and fantasy and scinfinviolence. Showing some damage, or at least least seeing clothes get messed up at least, helps the verisimilitude though, but most if the time that's all we want or need, unless the point is the realism.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,622
    Scott_P said:

    RobD said:

    The more discerning viewer tunes into This Week ;)

    For readers of this blog below the age of 50, "tunes into" refers to the archaic practise of selecting programmes on the wireless by adjusting a large tuning knob on the fascia of the instrument.
    I think "wireless" has had the last laugh, that said.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,622
    edited February 2016
    DavidL said:

    By the way how on earth was Sadness overlooked for best supporting actress? An amazing performance full of subtlety and nuance.

    oh, oh I wasn't going to do that but as you just have...it is a travesty that neither Beasts of No Nation, nor Idris Elba were nominated for anything.
  • Options
    Scott_P said:

    RobD said:

    The more discerning viewer tunes into This Week ;)

    For readers of this blog below the age of 50, "tunes into" refers to the archaic practise of selecting programmes on the wireless by adjusting a large tuning knob on the fascia of the instrument.
    Wireless or, for that matter, television set, which may be a reason why families would tend to stick with either BBC or ITV.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,193

    Thanks Roger. I have had a modest punt on a couple of these.

    I suppose the deciding factor is how well the Revenant does, as Oscars do seem highly clumped together rather than shared across several worthy contenders.

    The Revenant did cover the brutality and barbarity of the American west quite well, and the cinematography was tremendous, but it is far from Leo's best performance. Acting is about making the unreal plausible, and at several parts I thought Leo would be dead. He would have died of exposure in that icy river, his clothes would have been too waterlogged to move in afterwards, the throat wound would have been fatal and not healed so fast. The bearskin that he carried would have weighed over 100lb and couldn't have been worn by an injured man with a makeshift ankle support and crutch etc etc. The implausibilities just grated too much for my medical eyes!

    You say all that - but it is based on a true story. Maybe it is partly that he was such a medical marvel that has kept the story alive for nearly 200 years...? He certainly should have died several times over.

    It is one of my bug-bears though about modern "action" films - the sheer implausibility of the way people get slammed into unyielding objects and just never end up with a broken back. Or even concussion.
    The story on which it was based actually took place in summer, and did not involve native americans or a revenge expedition after getting back to the fort.

    I accept though that life can sometimes be implausible, just look at the life story of Captain Winkle Brown who died earlier in the week:

    http://m.edinburghnews.scotsman.com/news/eric-winkle-brown-s-death-prompts-calls-for-memorial-1-4036887

    A story too unreal to be true.
    Agreed, Captain Winkle Brown had an extraordinary life. Be a fascinating film - but you'd need quite a CGI budget, creating all those different experimental planes for a start.
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    Scott_P said:

    RobD said:

    The more discerning viewer tunes into This Week ;)

    For readers of this blog below the age of 50, "tunes into" refers to the archaic practise of selecting programmes on the wireless by adjusting a large tuning knob on the fascia of the instrument.
    Oi! I did that as a child and I'm only 36 :p
  • Options
    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edited February 2016
    kle4 said:

    On film, obviously film violence is supposed to be entertaining much of the time, it's not meant to seem real and we can tell the difference - the often understatedness of real footage of violence can be all the more disturbing as a result of not being flashy and cinematic, even vs purportedly realistic cinema. Movie classifications even make distinction between violence and fantasy and scinfinviolence. Showing some damage, or at least least seeing clothes get messed up at least, helps the verisimilitude though, but most if the time that's all we want or need, unless the point is the realism.

    I can remember my father's hatred of "The A Team" TV-series when I was a kid because huge amounts of ammunition got fired, no one got hurt, even the paintwork on cars didn't get scratched, and everyone was grinning and laughing a few minute later.. "what does that teach kids about guns... etc"
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Wireless or, for that matter, television set, which may be a reason why families would tend to stick with either BBC or ITV.

    I remember as a child we purchased a brand new, black and white, TV set, with 4 individual knobs on the front so you could individually tune 4 different stations and select them at the push of a button.

    Magic!
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    I had a TV in my bedroom as a kid, it couldn't get BBC 2 as it didn't have the right valves.

    Scott_P said:

    RobD said:

    The more discerning viewer tunes into This Week ;)

    For readers of this blog below the age of 50, "tunes into" refers to the archaic practise of selecting programmes on the wireless by adjusting a large tuning knob on the fascia of the instrument.
    Oi! I did that as a child and I'm only 36 :p
  • Options
    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    By the way how on earth was Sadness overlooked for best supporting actress? An amazing performance full of subtlety and nuance.

    oh, oh I wasn't going to do that but as you just have...it is a travesty that neither Beasts of No Nation, nor Idris Elba were nominated for anything.
    Idris Elba wasn't nominated so that that Snoop Dogg could have a good whine on the TV

    http://news.sky.com/story/1648980/snoop-dogg-the-oscars-werent-made-for-us
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,193

    Thanks Roger. I have had a modest punt on a couple of these.

    I suppose the deciding factor is how well the Revenant does, as Oscars do seem highly clumped together rather than shared across several worthy contenders.

    The Revenant did cover the brutality and barbarity of the American west quite well, and the cinematography was tremendous, but it is far from Leo's best performance. Acting is about making the unreal plausible, and at several parts I thought Leo would be dead. He would have died of exposure in that icy river, his clothes would have been too waterlogged to move in afterwards, the throat wound would have been fatal and not healed so fast. The bearskin that he carried would have weighed over 100lb and couldn't have been worn by an injured man with a makeshift ankle support and crutch etc etc. The implausibilities just grated too much for my medical eyes!

    You say all that - but it is based on a true story. Maybe it is partly that he was such a medical marvel that has kept the story alive for nearly 200 years...? He certainly should have died several times over.

    It is one of my bug-bears though about modern "action" films - the sheer implausibility of the way people get slammed into unyielding objects and just never end up with a broken back. Or even concussion.
    One of the things I have to keep in mind when watching action films is "IT'S NOT A DOCUMENTARY!" I'm forever rolling my eyes, before telling the Mrs that Vin Diesel wouldn't survive being blown up and landing on the windscreen of a speeding supercar, or that getting knocked unconscious is a very bad thing indeed.
    My other big gripe is that baddies in movies hire the most inept goons, whose sole purpose in life seems to be walking around expensive houses before being killed. And they have clearly never used a gun before, let alone had extensive target practice. I mean, you can get a vast secret complex built in an offshore volcano, but then employ people who couldn't hit a cow's arse with a banjo? Personally, I'd feed your Human Resources department to the sharks....
  • Options

    I had a TV in my bedroom as a kid, it couldn't get BBC 2 as it didn't have the right valves.

    Scott_P said:

    RobD said:

    The more discerning viewer tunes into This Week ;)

    For readers of this blog below the age of 50, "tunes into" refers to the archaic practise of selecting programmes on the wireless by adjusting a large tuning knob on the fascia of the instrument.
    Oi! I did that as a child and I'm only 36 :p
    Worked on 405 lines. BBC2 was broadcast on 625 lines.

    I've still got an analogue set in the spare room, too much trouble to tip it out...

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    Mr. Mark, just one more reason Hans Gruber is an excellent villain.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,622
    Indigo said:

    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    By the way how on earth was Sadness overlooked for best supporting actress? An amazing performance full of subtlety and nuance.

    oh, oh I wasn't going to do that but as you just have...it is a travesty that neither Beasts of No Nation, nor Idris Elba were nominated for anything.
    Idris Elba wasn't nominated so that that Snoop Dogg could have a good whine on the TV

    http://news.sky.com/story/1648980/snoop-dogg-the-oscars-werent-made-for-us
    brown armbands? Dear god...
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,266

    Sky
    Ringleaders of the #Rotherham sex abuse scandal could lose their #UK citizenship https://t.co/0BuPtl5MhY https://t.co/vCBCZhJOI8

    we will never see it , usual hot air and bluster
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,193

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Just watched QT, we all know how dreadful Abbott is but if Truss is the best the tories can put forward our politics is at an all time though. Stuffed dummies parrotting rehearsed lines.

    I like that vicar.

    Truss is absolutely dreadful. I cannot forget (or forgive) that awful conference speech.
    Let's put aside parties, look at Abbott and Truss, the highest profile political panel show of the week and that's what we see. We have to choose between these idiots.
    The more discerning viewer tunes into This Week ;)
    Indeed - always avoid QT but tune into This Week - though unfortunately Lammy isn't the brightest button in the drawer. (Nice, but dim.) Portillo often is the voice of reason. Brillo does a good job of actually asking pertinent questions, which is something you never get with the likes of Dimblebore or Marr.
    Portillo might be the voice of reason, but he still plumped for Miliband to win the election. The man clearly knows nothing about politics (although I have been enjoying his train journeys in the US - seems like TV from an earlier, gentler age...)
  • Options
    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    Thanks Roger. I have had a modest punt on a couple of these.

    I suppose the deciding factor is how well the Revenant does, as Oscars do seem highly clumped together rather than shared across several worthy contenders.

    The Revenant did cover the brutality and barbarity of the American west quite well, and the cinematography was tremendous, but it is far from Leo's best performance. Acting is about making the unreal plausible, and at several parts I thought Leo would be dead. He would have died of exposure in that icy river, his clothes would have been too waterlogged to move in afterwards, the throat wound would have been fatal and not healed so fast. The bearskin that he carried would have weighed over 100lb and couldn't have been worn by an injured man with a makeshift ankle support and crutch etc etc. The implausibilities just grated too much for my medical eyes!

    You say all that - but it is based on a true story. Maybe it is partly that he was such a medical marvel that has kept the story alive for nearly 200 years...? He certainly should have died several times over.

    It is one of my bug-bears though about modern "action" films - the sheer implausibility of the way people get slammed into unyielding objects and just never end up with a broken back. Or even concussion.
    One of the things I have to keep in mind when watching action films is "IT'S NOT A DOCUMENTARY!" I'm forever rolling my eyes, before telling the Mrs that Vin Diesel wouldn't survive being blown up and landing on the windscreen of a speeding supercar, or that getting knocked unconscious is a very bad thing indeed.
    My other big gripe is that baddies in movies hire the most inept goons, whose sole purpose in life seems to be walking around expensive houses before being killed. And they have clearly never used a gun before, let alone had extensive target practice. I mean, you can get a vast secret complex built in an offshore volcano, but then employ people who couldn't hit a cow's arse with a banjo? Personally, I'd feed your Human Resources department to the sharks....
    Is why I don't watch horror movies... people that

    * insist on walking around their house with the lights off
    * go inquisitively to investigate the bloodcurdling scream rather than running like hell
    * enter a situation likely to involve combat or running away either in high heels
    * neglect to pick up weapons dropped by the bad guys even if they almost fall over them
    * go chasing "the undead" without the most curious research at the local library/online
    * get into the black van with the nasty man with the gun
    etc

    Deserve all that comes after!
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    richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    Roger...good spotting..
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Stupid girls who trip over, slapping doors with your palms when trying to escape, shakey cam, the list is endless :smiley:
    Indigo said:

    snip

    The Revenant did cover the brutality and barbarity of the American west quite well, and the cinematography was tremendous, but it is far from Leo's best performance. Acting is about making the unreal plausible, and at several parts I thought Leo would be dead. He would have died of exposure in that icy river, his clothes would have been too waterlogged to move in afterwards, the throat wound would have been fatal and not healed so fast. The bearskin that he carried would have weighed over 100lb and couldn't have been worn by an injured man with a makeshift ankle support and crutch etc etc. The implausibilities just grated too much for my medical eyes!

    You say all that - but it is based on a true story. Maybe it is partly that he was such a medical marvel that has kept the story alive for nearly 200 years...? He certainly should have died several times over.

    It is one of my bug-bears though about modern "action" films - the sheer implausibility of the way people get slammed into unyielding objects and just never end up with a broken back. Or even concussion.
    One of the things I have to keep in mind when watching action films is "IT'S NOT A DOCUMENTARY!" I'm forever rolling my eyes, before telling the Mrs that Vin Diesel wouldn't survive being blown up and landing on the windscreen of a speeding supercar, or that getting knocked unconscious is a very bad thing indeed.
    My other big gripe is that baddies in movies hire the most inept goons, whose sole purpose in life seems to be walking around expensive houses before being killed. And they have clearly never used a gun before, let alone had extensive target practice. I mean, you can get a vast secret complex built in an offshore volcano, but then employ people who couldn't hit a cow's arse with a banjo? Personally, I'd feed your Human Resources department to the sharks....
    Is why I don't watch horror movies... people that

    * insist on walking around their house with the lights off
    * go inquisitively to investigate the bloodcurdling scream rather than running like hell
    * enter a situation likely to involve combat or running away either in high heels
    * neglect to pick up weapons dropped by the bad guys even if they almost fall over them
    * go chasing "the undead" without the most curious research at the local library/online
    * get into the black van with the nasty man with the gun
    etc

    Deserve all that comes after!
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,622
    Indigo said:

    Thanks Roger. I have had a modest punt on a couple of these.

    I suppose the deciding factor is how well the Revenant does, as Oscars do seem highly clumped together rather than shared across several worthy contenders.

    The Revenant did cover the brutality and barbarity of the American west quite well, and the cinematography was tremendous, but it is far from Leo's best performance. Acting is about making the unreal plausible, and at several parts I thought Leo would be dead. He would have died of exposure in that icy river, his clothes would have been too waterlogged to move in afterwards, the throat wound would have been fatal and not healed so fast. The bearskin that he carried would have weighed over 100lb and couldn't have been worn by an injured man with a makeshift ankle support and crutch etc etc. The implausibilities just grated too much for my medical eyes!

    You say all that - but it is based on a true story. Maybe it is partly that he was such a medical marvel that has kept the story alive for nearly 200 years...? He certainly should have died several times over.

    It is one of my bug-bears though about modern "action" films - the sheer implausibility of the way people get slammed into unyielding objects and just never end up with a broken back. Or even concussion.
    One of the things I have to keep in mind when watching action films is "IT'S NOT A DOCUMENTARY!" I'm forever rolling my eyes, before telling the Mrs that Vin Diesel wouldn't survive being blown up and landing on the windscreen of a speeding supercar, or that getting knocked unconscious is a very bad thing indeed.
    My other big gripe is that baddies in movies hire the most inept goons, whose sole purpose in life seems to be walking around expensive houses before being killed. And they have clearly never used a gun before, let alone had extensive target practice. I mean, you can get a vast secret complex built in an offshore volcano, but then employ people who couldn't hit a cow's arse with a banjo? Personally, I'd feed your Human Resources department to the sharks....
    Is why I don't watch horror movies... people that

    * insist on walking around their house with the lights off
    * go inquisitively to investigate the bloodcurdling scream rather than running like hell
    * enter a situation likely to involve combat or running away either in high heels
    * neglect to pick up weapons dropped by the bad guys even if they almost fall over them
    * go chasing "the undead" without the most curious research at the local library/online
    * get into the black van with the nasty man with the gun
    etc

    Deserve all that comes after!
    * go into the woods to investigate that noise
  • Options
    Germany expecting 3.6 million migrants by 2020

    http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN0VX2ZW
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    Mr. Die, I'd be surprised if it's that low (including the million last year). And then there's the families.

    Horror fans: you might like Until Dawn. Not played it myself, but it's a PS4 exclusive horror game very much in a film style (so, if you do hear a noise outside you choose to investigate, or not). It's gotten very good reviews:
    http://www.amazon.co.uk/review/R158NXMNL18DFA/ref=cm_cr_dp_title?ie=UTF8&ASIN=B00UV7IQGC&channel=detail-glance&nodeID=300703&store=videogames
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    malcolmg said:

    Sky
    Ringleaders of the #Rotherham sex abuse scandal could lose their #UK citizenship https://t.co/0BuPtl5MhY https://t.co/vCBCZhJOI8

    we will never see it , usual hot air and bluster
    Sadly I agree with you. One of these scum has fathered children here so with his human rights that will stop any extradition.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,818
    edited February 2016
    Thanks Roger.

    I thought The Revenant was overrated, very good but not a great.

    If it were up to me my choice for best film would be from The Martian, Room, Spotlight or The Big Short. The ending of The Big Short was chilling. But The Martian won it for me, scifi films don't get the honours they deserve, plus this had some awesome 70s music in it including ABBA.

    Best actor, Matt Damon for me, and Mark Rylance for me.

    Actress wise I enjoyed Brie Larson.

    Can someone explain to me why Samuel L Jackson wasn't nominated for his role in The Hateful Eight, because that was the performance of the last year for me
  • Options
    Must agree with Mr. G and Mr Betting on the low chance of the citizenship being removed from the scum. It was on the news last night that one has about 18 children.

    He ought to be deported, if at all possible. What kind of country would it be if we gave someone a right to remain based on the fact he raped some women pregnant?
  • Options
    TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited February 2016
    RobD said:

    Just watched QT, we all know how dreadful Abbott is but if Truss is the best the tories can put forward our politics is at an all time though. Stuffed dummies parrotting rehearsed lines.

    I like that vicar.

    Truss is absolutely dreadful. I cannot forget (or forgive) that awful conference speech.
    I do not know why some folk rate her as a future Leader. To my mind Andrea Leadsom is a lady of real substance. She comes across as a very able manager. Telling Osborne to eff off takes real cojones.
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    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    He ought to be deported, if at all possible. What kind of country would it be if we gave someone a right to remain based on the fact he raped some women pregnant?

    One that over the past decades has allowed judges to draw absurdly broad conclusions from Article 8.
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    runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    we will never see it , usual hot air and bluster

    I suspect Malcolm is right, sadly
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    Mr. Indigo, well quite.

    I'd prefer to Leave that sort of bullshit behind.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,228
    edited February 2016


    Can someone explain to me why Samuel L Jackson wasn't nominated for his role in The Hateful Eight, because that was the performance of the last year for me

    Because he's blick.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,020

    Thanks Roger. I have had a modest punt on a couple of these.

    I suppose the deciding factor is how well the Revenant does, as Oscars do seem highly clumped together rather than shared across several worthy contenders.

    The Revenant did cover the brutality and barbarity of the American west quite well, and the cinematography was tremendous, but it is far from Leo's best performance. Acting is about making the unreal plausible, and at several parts I thought Leo would be dead. He would have died of exposure in that icy river, his clothes would have been too waterlogged to move in afterwards, the throat wound would have been fatal and not healed so fast. The bearskin that he carried would have weighed over 100lb and couldn't have been worn by an injured man with a makeshift ankle support and crutch etc etc. The implausibilities just grated too much for my medical eyes!

    You say all that - but it is based on a true story. Maybe it is partly that he was such a medical marvel that has kept the story alive for nearly 200 years...? He certainly should have died several times over.

    It is one of my bug-bears though about modern "action" films - the sheer implausibility of the way people get slammed into unyielding objects and just never end up with a broken back. Or even concussion.
    One of the things I have to keep in mind when watching action films is "IT'S NOT A DOCUMENTARY!" I'm forever rolling my eyes, before telling the Mrs that Vin Diesel wouldn't survive being blown up and landing on the windscreen of a speeding supercar, or that getting knocked unconscious is a very bad thing indeed.
    My other big gripe is that baddies in movies hire the most inept goons, whose sole purpose in life seems to be walking around expensive houses before being killed. And they have clearly never used a gun before, let alone had extensive target practice. I mean, you can get a vast secret complex built in an offshore volcano, but then employ people who couldn't hit a cow's arse with a banjo? Personally, I'd feed your Human Resources department to the sharks....
    And when the Big Bad's goons are sufficiently competent to kill the Hero, the Big Bad will usually say "Leave him he's mine" with predictably disastrous results; or he'll capture him, and instead of killing him on the spot, he'll strap him into an elaborate torture device that he escapes from.

    If a film involves medieval or ancient warfare, expect two well -disciplined armies to march against each other, before inexplicably breaking apart and fighting individual duels. And female warriors always wear their hair loose in battle, dress in skimpy chain mail or leather, and defeat armoured opponents with Kung-Fu kicks.
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    Apologies if already posted, but what a fine school with excellent staff, they should be praised for flagging up one of their students visiting an extremist site.

    PC gone mad: Outrage as school calls police after pupil looks at Ukip website in class

    A SCHOOLBOY was hauled out of class and interrogated by detectives after politically correct teachers reported him to the POLICE for visiting the UKIP website.

    http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/647539/Ukip-UK-Independence-Party-school-police-called-website

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    Martin Kettle on BREXIT & SINDY:

    So, Scotland will quit the United Kingdom if the vote in June goes against remaining in the European Union, will it? If you are a fervent Scottish nationalist you may be hoping so. If you are a worried pro-EU unionist you may be fearing so. And even if you are neither of these, you may have got the general impression that it is likely. But I say this: don’t jump to conclusions.

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/feb/25/brexit-vote-scotland-out-uk-scottish-independence
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,054
    Di would have loved it. LURVED IT. Beautiful. Just beautiful.
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    The baddie indulges in a long explanation of the plot, filling in holes and the hero uses the time to wriggle free.
    Sean_F said:

    Thanks Roger. I have had snip

    The Revenant did cover the brutality and barbarity of the American west quite well, and the cinematography was tremendous, but it is far from Leo's best performance. Acting is about making the unreal plausible, and at several parts I thought Leo would be dead. He would have died of exposure in that icy river, his clothes would have been too waterlogged to move in afterwards, the throat wound would have been fatal and not healed so fast. The bearskin that he carried would have weighed over 100lb and couldn't have been worn by an injured man with a makeshift ankle support and crutch etc etc. The implausibilities just grated too much for my medical eyes!

    You say all that - but it is based on a true story. Maybe it is partly that he was such a medical marvel that has kept the story alive for nearly 200 years...? He certainly should have died several times over.

    It is one of my bug-bears though about modern "action" films - the sheer implausibility of the way people get slammed into unyielding objects and just never end up with a broken back. Or even concussion.
    One of the things I have to keep in mind when watching action films is "IT'S NOT A DOCUMENTARY!" I'm forever rolling my eyes, before telling the Mrs that Vin Diesel wouldn't survive being blown up and landing on the windscreen of a speeding supercar, or that getting knocked unconscious is a very bad thing indeed.
    My other big gripe is that baddies in movies hire the most inept goons, whose sole purpose in life seems to be walking around expensive houses before being killed. And they have clearly never used a gun before, let alone had extensive target practice. I mean, you can get a vast secret complex built in an offshore volcano, but then employ people who couldn't hit a cow's arse with a banjo? Personally, I'd feed your Human Resources department to the sharks....
    And when the Big Bad's goons are sufficiently competent to kill the Hero, the Big Bad will usually say "Leave him he's mine" with predictably disastrous results; or he'll capture him, and instead of killing him on the spot, he'll strap him into an elaborate torture device that he escapes from.

    If a film involves medieval or ancient warfare, expect two well -disciplined armies to march against each other, before inexplicably breaking apart and fighting individual duels. And female warriors always wear their hair loose in battle, dress in skimpy chain mail or leather, and defeat armoured opponents with Kung-Fu kicks.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,054
    I'll definitely have to watch the Hateful Eight now, Morricone's scores are great.
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    I see that hope springs eternal for the Marco Rubio backers. His price has come in markedly after the debate last night.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,380
    Anecdote alert: was visiting two Tory, mildly Eurosceptic friends last night, who had been planning to vote Leave without great interest. They're now alarmed by the drop in the £ and Cameron's warning that Brexit would mean more expensive trips abroad - "For the first time someone's said something that actually affects us". What struck me is that it was the first time they were really paying attention.

    I think both sides need to bank the committed "Europe belongs together " vs "give us back control" people and go after chequebook issues for the floaters who aren't sure either how or whether to vote.
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    runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    Oh dear another top business leader declines to join Downing Street's 'Project Fear, this time the Portuguese CEO of LLoyds

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3464958/We-ll-thrive-EU-says-bank-chief-Lloyds-boss-gives-vote-confidence-Brexit-s-Portugal.html

    Lords Howard and Owen yesterday as well...this won't be a re-run of 1975 as Cameron and Osborne hoped
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    I see that hope springs eternal for the Marco Rubio backers. His price has come in markedly after the debate last night.

    It's hilarious.
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    Anecdote alert: was visiting two Tory, mildly Eurosceptic friends last night, who had been planning to vote Leave without great interest. They're now alarmed by the drop in the £ and Cameron's warning that Brexit would mean more expensive trips abroad - "For the first time someone's said something that actually affects us". What struck me is that it was the first time they were really paying attention.

    I think both sides need to bank the committed "Europe belongs together " vs "give us back control" people and go after chequebook issues for the floaters who aren't sure either how or whether to vote.

    Correct.
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    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edited February 2016

    I see that hope springs eternal for the Marco Rubio backers. His price has come in markedly after the debate last night.

    Indeed. He was better, but still walked into a few rather obvious walls.

    Rubio to Trump: You are the only person on this stage to have hired an illegal immigrant
    Trump to Rubio: I am the only person on this stage to have hired anyone and I have hired tens of thousands of people.
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    stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,780
    Roger. Thanks very much for doing this. And thanks to Peter from Putney - the Sage of PB - for identifying the value bets.

    Peter politely requested that Roger underwrite his betting liabilities on these tips. Roger hasn't responded to this request but I think we can safely assume that Roger's silence indicates tacit agreement.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,054

    I see that hope springs eternal for the Marco Rubio backers. His price has come in markedly after the debate last night.

    I was genuinly worried about Trump after the South Carolina debate. He was alot less wild in this one, looked more like a frontrunner. He reminded me of David Cameron a bit in this one, not perhaps objectively the debate winner - but did enough.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    stjohn said:

    Roger. Thanks very much for doing this. And thanks to Peter from Putney - the Sage of PB - for identifying the value bets.

    Morning

    Any chance you will be at Cheltenham this year?
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    Tend not to plug books (which aren't mine, ahem) but I saw this chap asking for help getting reviews, and it's actually about the US election. Rather than the big names, it's about the long shots who run for president.

    Anyway, thought some here may want to give it a look:
    https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/28457282-the-can-t-idates
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    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    I think both sides need to bank the committed "Europe belongs together " vs "give us back control" people and go after chequebook issues for the floaters who aren't sure either how or whether to vote.

    That's framing for you. It complete nonsense, but people believe it anyway. Check the performance of the £ over the past couple of years. Notice the trend. Is there anything to get even a little excited about this week ?

    http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=USD&view=2Y
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,964
    Thanks Roger - great insights!
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,684

    RobD said:

    Just watched QT, we all know how dreadful Abbott is but if Truss is the best the tories can put forward our politics is at an all time though. Stuffed dummies parrotting rehearsed lines.

    I like that vicar.

    Truss is absolutely dreadful. I cannot forget (or forgive) that awful conference speech.
    I do not know why some folk rate her as a future Leader. To my mind Andrea Leadsom is a lady of real substance. She comes across as a very able manager. Telling Osborne to eff off takes real cojones.
    She's done a downright awful job at Energy though. Worse than Huhne and Davey.
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    Anecdote alert: was visiting two Tory, mildly Eurosceptic friends last night, who had been planning to vote Leave without great interest. They're now alarmed by the drop in the £ and Cameron's warning that Brexit would mean more expensive trips abroad - "For the first time someone's said something that actually affects us". What struck me is that it was the first time they were really paying attention.

    I think both sides need to bank the committed "Europe belongs together " vs "give us back control" people and go after chequebook issues for the floaters who aren't sure either how or whether to vote.

    George has got the message:

    @GeorgeOsborne: With risks facing global economy most heightened since crash, now would be worst time for UK to take gamble of EU exit

    EU referendum is about people's jobs, livelihoods and living standards. EU exit would represent profound economic shock


    Meanwhile Nigel.....

    @NigelFarage:
    '@David_Cameron's "tens of thousands" pledge already in tatters but clear real EU migrant numbers far higher. Disaster inside EU!

    The great migrant con: 630,000 EU nationals registered to work but government say only 257,000 arrived.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,622

    Anecdote alert: was visiting two Tory, mildly Eurosceptic friends last night, who had been planning to vote Leave without great interest. They're now alarmed by the drop in the £ and Cameron's warning that Brexit would mean more expensive trips abroad - "For the first time someone's said something that actually affects us". What struck me is that it was the first time they were really paying attention.

    I think both sides need to bank the committed "Europe belongs together " vs "give us back control" people and go after chequebook issues for the floaters who aren't sure either how or whether to vote.

    I am interested that you associate with people who have thought so little about Brexit.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,054
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    watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    edited February 2016
    On topic - Visual Effects Oscar. The Revenant is the film that deserves to win for the seamless effects of the bear attack, but they're too subtle. And Ex Machina is an outstanding effort too, for the sheer amount of work that went into blending live action with CGI. But Star Wars will probably pip them for the 'In your face' aspect of the show, and it's a West Coast post production facility that created them.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,054
    edited February 2016
    Rubio's biggest problem coming up is that Ted Cruz is going to win Texas, and he ain't holding Florida. Ohio looks Too close to call.
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    I see that hope springs eternal for the Marco Rubio backers. His price has come in markedly after the debate last night.

    Virginia, Texas and Georgia, are to be Marco's last stand, according to ad buys (via 538):

    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/here-are-the-super-tuesday-states-rubios-pac-is-betting-on/
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,054

    I see that hope springs eternal for the Marco Rubio backers. His price has come in markedly after the debate last night.

    Virginia, Texas and Georgia, are to be Marco's last stand, according to ad buys (via 538):

    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/here-are-the-super-tuesday-states-rubios-pac-is-betting-on/
    I think he has half a chance to win Virginia. Perhaps.
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    MaxPB said:

    RobD said:

    Just watched QT, we all know how dreadful Abbott is but if Truss is the best the tories can put forward our politics is at an all time though. Stuffed dummies parrotting rehearsed lines.

    I like that vicar.

    Truss is absolutely dreadful. I cannot forget (or forgive) that awful conference speech.
    I do not know why some folk rate her as a future Leader. To my mind Andrea Leadsom is a lady of real substance. She comes across as a very able manager. Telling Osborne to eff off takes real cojones.
    She's done a downright awful job at Energy though. Worse than Huhne and Davey.
    why?
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    I'm not a great filmgoer but this festival must be of interest to the site regulars:

    http://www.cfi-icf.ca/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1006930&Itemid=33
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    Thanks Roger.

    I thought The Revenant was overrated, very good but not a great.

    If it were up to me my choice for best film would be from The Martian, Room, Spotlight or The Big Short. The ending of The Big Short was chilling. But The Martian won it for me, scifi films don't get the honours they deserve, plus this had some awesome 70s music in it including ABBA.

    Best actor, Matt Damon for me, and Mark Rylance for me.

    Actress wise I enjoyed Brie Larson.

    Can someone explain to me why Samuel L Jackson wasn't nominated for his role in The Hateful Eight, because that was the performance of the last year for me

    If you think The Revenant was overrated, wait until you see Triple 9.

    Agree about Samuel L Jackson
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,170
    TOPPING said:

    Anecdote alert: was visiting two Tory, mildly Eurosceptic friends last night, who had been planning to vote Leave without great interest. They're now alarmed by the drop in the £ and Cameron's warning that Brexit would mean more expensive trips abroad - "For the first time someone's said something that actually affects us". What struck me is that it was the first time they were really paying attention.

    I think both sides need to bank the committed "Europe belongs together " vs "give us back control" people and go after chequebook issues for the floaters who aren't sure either how or whether to vote.

    I am interested that you associate with people who have thought so little about Brexit.
    Isn’t it a measure of Nick’s good sense that he associates with normal people as well as political anoraks?
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    runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    George has got the message:

    Well Nick and George are speaking from the same script, don't you think?
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,684

    MaxPB said:

    RobD said:

    Just watched QT, we all know how dreadful Abbott is but if Truss is the best the tories can put forward our politics is at an all time though. Stuffed dummies parrotting rehearsed lines.

    I like that vicar.

    Truss is absolutely dreadful. I cannot forget (or forgive) that awful conference speech.
    I do not know why some folk rate her as a future Leader. To my mind Andrea Leadsom is a lady of real substance. She comes across as a very able manager. Telling Osborne to eff off takes real cojones.
    She's done a downright awful job at Energy though. Worse than Huhne and Davey.
    why?
    Well for one she wants to u-turn on wind subsidies. She has put through new legislation to shut down our last coal fired plants sharpening our energy crisis and she has made CCGTs completely and utterly uncompetitive, despite very low gas prices. Her stopgap plan is a bunch of dirty diesel generators to stop the lights from going out in 2017-2019.

    Honestly, the department is pretty farcical. The duality of having both energy and climate change in a single department is crazy, that's not her fault. Not ignoring climate change in favour of short term energy security is her fault though. I don't think people are going to care about carbon emissions if the lights go out during Christmas.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    @Cyclefree

    Vanilla mail for you.
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    NormNorm Posts: 1,251
    edited February 2016

    RobD said:

    Just watched QT, we all know how dreadful Abbott is but if Truss is the best the tories can put forward our politics is at an all time though. Stuffed dummies parrotting rehearsed lines.

    I like that vicar.

    Truss is absolutely dreadful. I cannot forget (or forgive) that awful conference speech.
    Let's put aside parties, look at Abbott and Truss, the highest profile political panel show of the week and that's what we see. We have to choose between these idiots.
    Truss sold the Remain message poorly (maybe because her heart isn't in it) and Diane Abbot's euro enthusiasm isn't a lot greater than that of her leader and former lover. Given three redoubtable Outers elsewhere on the panel and a eurosceptic audience it was a fairly disastrous 60 minutes for Remain. Just goes to show how important Cameron and Osborne will be in saving the referendum for Remain.
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    stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,780
    edited February 2016
    Scott_P said:

    stjohn said:

    Roger. Thanks very much for doing this. And thanks to Peter from Putney - the Sage of PB - for identifying the value bets.

    Morning

    Any chance you will be at Cheltenham this year?
    Hi Scott P. For years I was a member of Cheltenham Racecourse and always joined the annual pilgrimage. As I only live in Birmingham, "retreat" rather than pilgrimage probably described it better. And retreat certainly described our impoverished return from the racecourse on many an occasion!

    Now I much prefer to stay at home and watch it on the telly. Unless you are extremely well off, you get to see much more of the racing that way and it avoids the nightmare of getting to and from the course. If someone wants to provide me with complimentary helicopter transport and a Panoramic View restaurant ticket, I might reconsider.



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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,193

    I see that hope springs eternal for the Marco Rubio backers. His price has come in markedly after the debate last night.

    Virginia, Texas and Georgia, are to be Marco's last stand, according to ad buys (via 538):

    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/here-are-the-super-tuesday-states-rubios-pac-is-betting-on/
    Interesting line at the end:

    "And what about Trump? Not a major ad buy in sight."

    Trump really is doing his campaigning on the cheap. Advertisers must be terrified this will become the new campaign norm....
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Sean_F said:



    My other big gripe is that baddies in movies hire the most inept goons, whose sole purpose in life seems to be walking around expensive houses before being killed. And they have clearly never used a gun before, let alone had extensive target practice. I mean, you can get a vast secret complex built in an offshore volcano, but then employ people who couldn't hit a cow's arse with a banjo? Personally, I'd feed your Human Resources department to the sharks....

    And when the Big Bad's goons are sufficiently competent to kill the Hero, the Big Bad will usually say "Leave him he's mine" with predictably disastrous results; or he'll capture him, and instead of killing him on the spot, he'll strap him into an elaborate torture device that he escapes from.
    Goldfinger is a classic - that laser still makes me wince
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    I see that hope springs eternal for the Marco Rubio backers. His price has come in markedly after the debate last night.

    Virginia, Texas and Georgia, are to be Marco's last stand, according to ad buys (via 538):

    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/here-are-the-super-tuesday-states-rubios-pac-is-betting-on/
    Interesting line at the end:

    "And what about Trump? Not a major ad buy in sight."

    Trump really is doing his campaigning on the cheap. Advertisers must be terrified this will become the new campaign norm....
    I guess he's saving funds for Hillary. Seeing as he's spending his own money, why waste it now? Clearly he's used word of mouth and social media in ways that will scare advertisers.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    runnymede said:

    Oh dear another top business leader declines to join Downing Street's 'Project Fear, this time the Portuguese CEO of LLoyds

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3464958/We-ll-thrive-EU-says-bank-chief-Lloyds-boss-gives-vote-confidence-Brexit-s-Portugal.html

    Lords Howard and Owen yesterday as well...this won't be a re-run of 1975 as Cameron and Osborne hoped

    I do wonder - pace @Casino_Royale - whether this steady drip drip of big names coming out for Leave has been planned and sequenced. Big names - surprise leftie, then big Tory, then... etc etc
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,267
    Charles said:

    @Cyclefree

    Vanilla mail for you.

    Thank you. Saw and have replied.

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    Mr. Charles, and it has the best one-liner in Bond history.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,380
    TOPPING said:



    I am interested that you associate with people who have thought so little about Brexit.

    The bloke involved is my oldest friend - we've known each other for over 40 years. I get together with him and his partner once a week for dinner, board games and box sets. Occasionally politics is mentioned.

    In general I really appreciate friends who don't care much about politics. In my weekly poker game that I've done for years, the dozen or so regulars were studiously indifferent to the General Election, apart from vaguely wishing me luck. I'd hate it if they quizzed me about margins of errors and swing constituencies. I come here for that!
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,267
    This is quite an interesting article on some of the underlying attitudes - http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/12172429/EU-elites-wrongly-believe-they-have-perfected-government-so-we-should-leave.html

    On topic, thank you to Roger.

    I have not seen these films but the only ones that appeal are Inside Out, Carol, Room and Bridge of Spies.

    I agree about Mark Rylance: I have seen him on stage a few times and he is mesmerising.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,054
    Jeb Bush backers chucked $150 million at ads, that has to be the worst investment EVER.
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    Charles said:

    runnymede said:

    Oh dear another top business leader declines to join Downing Street's 'Project Fear, this time the Portuguese CEO of LLoyds

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3464958/We-ll-thrive-EU-says-bank-chief-Lloyds-boss-gives-vote-confidence-Brexit-s-Portugal.html

    Lords Howard and Owen yesterday as well...this won't be a re-run of 1975 as Cameron and Osborne hoped

    I do wonder - pace @Casino_Royale - whether this steady drip drip of big names coming out for Leave has been planned and sequenced. Big names - surprise leftie, then big Tory, then... etc etc
    You'd think so but then you remember the shambles that is the leave campaign and wonder who on earth might be organising it.
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    I see that hope springs eternal for the Marco Rubio backers. His price has come in markedly after the debate last night.

    Virginia, Texas and Georgia, are to be Marco's last stand, according to ad buys (via 538):

    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/here-are-the-super-tuesday-states-rubios-pac-is-betting-on/
    Interesting line at the end:

    "And what about Trump? Not a major ad buy in sight."

    Trump really is doing his campaigning on the cheap. Advertisers must be terrified this will become the new campaign norm....
    I guess he's saving funds for Hillary. Seeing as he's spending his own money, why waste it now? Clearly he's used word of mouth and social media in ways that will scare advertisers.
    One of the problems with campaigning for the Top Job is that you need to sell a pretty extreme image to circa 1% of the population in order to get the nomination, then sell a more moderate image to an additional 50% of the population.

    When the really big ad blitz comes, it'd be nice not to be spending a big chunk of it basically erasing the memories or aftertaste left by your first major ad campaign.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    I see that hope springs eternal for the Marco Rubio backers. His price has come in markedly after the debate last night.

    At this point I'm assuming it's entirely rich eccentric recluse Cromwell at this point.
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    I've been thinking a bit about the idea that the other members of the EU might, post-Brexit, encourage Scotland to secede from the UK and join the EU. Quite apart from the practical difficulties with such an idea, direct incitement of this type would contravene the international law principle that states should respect the territorial integrity of sovereign states. This type of action would be a massive step change from the recognition of the likes of Kosovo (which remains controversial even within the EU, for example). Respectable democratic countries should not be going anywhere near this type of behaviour.

    So I don't see anything that unsubtle happening.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,964
    Charles said:

    runnymede said:

    Oh dear another top business leader declines to join Downing Street's 'Project Fear, this time the Portuguese CEO of LLoyds

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3464958/We-ll-thrive-EU-says-bank-chief-Lloyds-boss-gives-vote-confidence-Brexit-s-Portugal.html

    Lords Howard and Owen yesterday as well...this won't be a re-run of 1975 as Cameron and Osborne hoped

    I do wonder - pace @Casino_Royale - whether this steady drip drip of big names coming out for Leave has been planned and sequenced. Big names - surprise leftie, then big Tory, then... etc etc
    Got to hope so.

    The more the years go on, the more impressed I am by Michael Howard. It was a shame that he didn't fancy the cabinet in 2010 or 2015. He would make an excellent Chancellor/For Sec
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    runnymede said:

    Oh dear another top business leader declines to join Downing Street's 'Project Fear, this time the Portuguese CEO of LLoyds

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3464958/We-ll-thrive-EU-says-bank-chief-Lloyds-boss-gives-vote-confidence-Brexit-s-Portugal.html

    Lords Howard and Owen yesterday as well...this won't be a re-run of 1975 as Cameron and Osborne hoped

    I do wonder - pace @Casino_Royale - whether this steady drip drip of big names coming out for Leave has been planned and sequenced. Big names - surprise leftie, then big Tory, then... etc etc
    You'd think so but then you remember the shambles that is the leave campaign and wonder who on earth might be organising it.
    Judging by the number of invitations I get to Vote Leave events around the country (none of which I've managed to go to just yet!) plus campaign briefing breakfasts every week I suspect they are paddling furiously under the surface...
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    Good morning all.

    The Revenant was pretty but dull. The Big Short is a better film imo. Joy was the worst film I saw in the last 12 months - why Lawrence was nominated I've no idea. Sad to see Sicario being so shortchanged - we bought the DVD and it still held up to a second viewing.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    I've been thinking a bit about the idea that the other members of the EU might, post-Brexit, encourage Scotland to secede from the UK and join the EU. Quite apart from the practical difficulties with such an idea, direct incitement of this type would contravene the international law principle that states should respect the territorial integrity of sovereign states. This type of action would be a massive step change from the recognition of the likes of Kosovo (which remains controversial even within the EU, for example). Respectable democratic countries should not be going anywhere near this type of behaviour.

    So I don't see anything that unsubtle happening.

    Sure. It would be simple. SNP clamours for Indyref2

    The EU "lets it be known" that they would welcome Scotland as a member.

    Job done.

    (My guess, though, is it was really just a threat that France was making, not a real option. But Cameron didn't want to call their bluff)
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    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    runnymede said:

    Oh dear another top business leader declines to join Downing Street's 'Project Fear, this time the Portuguese CEO of LLoyds

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3464958/We-ll-thrive-EU-says-bank-chief-Lloyds-boss-gives-vote-confidence-Brexit-s-Portugal.html

    Lords Howard and Owen yesterday as well...this won't be a re-run of 1975 as Cameron and Osborne hoped

    I do wonder - pace @Casino_Royale - whether this steady drip drip of big names coming out for Leave has been planned and sequenced. Big names - surprise leftie, then big Tory, then... etc etc
    You'd think so but then you remember the shambles that is the leave campaign and wonder who on earth might be organising it.
    Judging by the number of invitations I get to Vote Leave events around the country (none of which I've managed to go to just yet!) plus campaign briefing breakfasts every week I suspect they are paddling furiously under the surface...
    ... in different directions?
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,054
    Trump will run the general precisely as he's run the primary.

    Anti-illegal immigration
    Hardline on Mexico & drugs,
    Pro-life, but otherwise liberal on healthcare and women's issues.
    Will continue to be critical of both Obama and Bush administrations.
    Pro 2nd amendment, but his old position of having some controls on assault rifles may come out the woodwork.
    His tax plans haven't really had an airing, his healthcare plan can appeal to Democrats as he's not really fleshed any of it out.

    He won't change a single position on any of the above.

    One thing that is barely covered in the press is the Mexican drug war, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mexican_Drug_War it's a conflict that's completely out the media limelight with the focus on Syria, but it is happening and is part of the reason both Rubio and Cruz are going to build a wall.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,976

    Thanks Roger.

    I thought The Revenant was overrated, very good but not a great.

    If it were up to me my choice for best film would be from The Martian, Room, Spotlight or The Big Short. The ending of The Big Short was chilling. But The Martian won it for me, scifi films don't get the honours they deserve, plus this had some awesome 70s music in it including ABBA.

    Best actor, Matt Damon for me, and Mark Rylance for me.

    Actress wise I enjoyed Brie Larson.

    Can someone explain to me why Samuel L Jackson wasn't nominated for his role in The Hateful Eight, because that was the performance of the last year for me

    I think Samuel Jackson wasn't nominated because his performance was a bit too pantomime. You could say the same for javier Bardem in 'No Country...' but there was some serious menace with it! I thought Brie Larson was good but I'd really like Saoirse Ronan to win. I thought she was exceptional and just unlucky that a film like Room was in the same year.
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Charles said:

    runnymede said:

    Oh dear another top business leader declines to join Downing Street's 'Project Fear, this time the Portuguese CEO of LLoyds

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3464958/We-ll-thrive-EU-says-bank-chief-Lloyds-boss-gives-vote-confidence-Brexit-s-Portugal.html

    Lords Howard and Owen yesterday as well...this won't be a re-run of 1975 as Cameron and Osborne hoped

    I do wonder - pace @Casino_Royale - whether this steady drip drip of big names coming out for Leave has been planned and sequenced. Big names - surprise leftie, then big Tory, then... etc etc
    One thing I took away from watching Question Time last night is many people feel they are not informed enough to make a decision.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,976

    Roger...good spotting..

    Thanks.
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    Charles said:

    I've been thinking a bit about the idea that the other members of the EU might, post-Brexit, encourage Scotland to secede from the UK and join the EU. Quite apart from the practical difficulties with such an idea, direct incitement of this type would contravene the international law principle that states should respect the territorial integrity of sovereign states. This type of action would be a massive step change from the recognition of the likes of Kosovo (which remains controversial even within the EU, for example). Respectable democratic countries should not be going anywhere near this type of behaviour.

    So I don't see anything that unsubtle happening.

    Sure. It would be simple. SNP clamours for Indyref2

    The EU "lets it be known" that they would welcome Scotland as a member.

    Job done.

    (My guess, though, is it was really just a threat that France was making, not a real option. But Cameron didn't want to call their bluff)
    I don't think anyone doubts that an independent Scotland would be welcomed as a member of the EU. It would be the only state west of the river Bug that the EU spurned if it wasn't.

    I agree, it would be a pretty empty threat.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,900
    edited February 2016
    Charles said:

    I've been thinking a bit about the idea that the other members of the EU might, post-Brexit, encourage Scotland to secede from the UK and join the EU. Quite apart from the practical difficulties with such an idea, direct incitement of this type would contravene the international law principle that states should respect the territorial integrity of sovereign states. This type of action would be a massive step change from the recognition of the likes of Kosovo (which remains controversial even within the EU, for example). Respectable democratic countries should not be going anywhere near this type of behaviour.

    So I don't see anything that unsubtle happening.

    Sure. It would be simple. SNP clamours for Indyref2

    The EU "lets it be known" that they would welcome Scotland as a member.

    Job done.
    It might be swiftly followed by invitations to EFTA for Catalonia, Corsica, Flanders, Bavaria, the Veneto, the Faroe Islands.....nah, not even the French are that stupid......

    In any case, the SNP is trying to hold the line against SINDYREF2......
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    Tend not to plug books (which aren't mine, ahem) but I saw this chap asking for help getting reviews, and it's actually about the US election. Rather than the big names, it's about the long shots who run for president.

    Anyway, thought some here may want to give it a look:
    https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/28457282-the-can-t-idates

    Longshots like Obama (50/1) and Trump (name your own price)? Seriously though, you can see brief extracts via Amazon's "look inside" feature.
    http://www.amazon.com/The-Cant-idates-Running-President-Nobody/dp/0692606378
    (or use the link from the Goodreads page).
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,054
    edited February 2016
    My favourite film of 2016 was "THe Martian"
    2nd was "Mad Max". I haven;'t seen many of the others, hope one of the two gets some awards tho.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Wait - Rubio has an actual chance of winning a state with Virginia? Hold onto the Rubio price rollercoaster express elevator straight down to 1.01 inevitable nomination guaranteed.
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    Charles said:

    I've been thinking a bit about the idea that the other members of the EU might, post-Brexit, encourage Scotland to secede from the UK and join the EU. Quite apart from the practical difficulties with such an idea, direct incitement of this type would contravene the international law principle that states should respect the territorial integrity of sovereign states. This type of action would be a massive step change from the recognition of the likes of Kosovo (which remains controversial even within the EU, for example). Respectable democratic countries should not be going anywhere near this type of behaviour.

    So I don't see anything that unsubtle happening.

    Sure. It would be simple. SNP clamours for Indyref2

    The EU "lets it be known" that they would welcome Scotland as a member.

    Job done.

    (My guess, though, is it was really just a threat that France was making, not a real option. But Cameron didn't want to call their bluff)
    I don't think anyone doubts that an independent Scotland would be welcomed as a member of the EU. It would be the only state west of the river Bug that the EU spurned if it wasn't.

    I agree, it would be a pretty empty threat.
    Wouldn't Spain veto membership of an Indy Scotland because of their problems with Catalonian secessionists ?
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