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Clinton Barking at the Moon...
CNN has the Bushes in the audience.
The moderators look like committed anti-Trumpers.
There is also Jindal in the audience, looks like CNN has stuffed the audience with Rubio people.
Those are bush people, not exactly neutral.
Carson; if someone can described america, america heads to the abyss of destruction, we will not offer solutions by destroying each other.
Kasich: I watched the early coverage, my father was a coal miner, my mother didn't speak english, i run for president, shoot for the stars america is great.
Rubio: we have to decide 21st century, 36 years ago reagan, conservatism, hopes dreams, are we still conservatives, i hope we are.
Cruz: welcome to texas, here my mom, here my father washed dishes, i graduated from baptists, i will fight for you.
Trump: my whole theme make america great again, we dont win anymore, we dont win, obamacare, we dont win, borders like swiss cheese, we will win, we will win a lot.
That said, Roger has come up with some interesting picks in the remaining 6 categories, where the best decimal odds currently available are as follows:
Supporting Actor:
Mark Rylance ....... 4.3 Betfair Exchange
Supporting Actress:
Rooney Mara ....... 9.4 Betfair Exchange
Costume Design:
Carol ...... 6.0 Betfair Sportsbook
Sound Editing:
The Revenant (Best Odds) ...... 3.5 BetFred
Sound Mixing:
The Revenant (Best Odds) ...... 2.5 BetFred
Visual Effects:
The Revenant ....... 17 Bet365
Ex Machina ........ 81 Bet365
(At those crazy odds, it has to be worth backing both Roger's picks!)
I've had between 50p and £5 on each of the above - any one of these has to come up for me to just about get my total stake money back. Roger will surely manage that .... won't he?
Deport 11 million, no one else wants to do it.
Trump: Cruz was leading amnesty you can ask Marco, you wouldnt ask me if i never brought it, those illegals will go, they can come back legally, the best of them through the process.
Cruz: the hardworking people are forgotten, illegal immigrants are forgotten, the business owners are complaining, but social costs fell, unemployment fell, no to legal immigrants, no citizenship.
Trump, i have the toughest man in arizona to endorse me.
Rubio: first of all, before we do anything, we will secure the border, visa overstays, e-verify, in 2011 and 2012 Trump was soft on immigration, Trump hires foreigners, its an important issue.
Trump: self deportation, is some to go and not, some people I hired, people didn't want part time jobs, for holiday seasons.
Rubio: you criticized romney over self deportation.
Trump: Romney ran a terrible campaign.
Rubio: i wish we should have won, its an important point, its an important point, you are the only one who hired illegals.
Trump: I;m the only one who hard hired any people, you havent hired hired anyone.
Rubio: trump polish workers.
Trump i hired tens of thousands of people, everything was fine 30 years ago.
Trump: I have said it loudly here, the audience is packed, i had a good relation with lots of politicians, i get along with everybody, you have not one senator backing you and you work with these people.
Cruz: Trump is right he would open borders, you should stand up against washington, if you are liked in washington you are not president.
Trump: cruz didn't put his loans from the big bad banks and he talks corruption.
Kasich: We have a great president George Bush, Regan passed a path to legalization, back then it worked, i favour a guest worker program, if they had not committed a crime i would give them a path we will not grab people, lets start solving problems, coalition, plan in 100 days.
Carson: I believe for liberty and justice, we need to secure all the borders, the people who are already here, we need to be reasonable, 6 month guest workers, not citizens, that is fair.
Trump: I will and the wall has gone 10 ft taller, I saw him make that statement, that used a filthy disgusting word on TV, we have a trade deficit, not including the drugs, we will make the wall, the wall costs 10-12 billion, the great wall of china, this is a real wall, mexico will pay for it, it's a small portion of the money we lose, i don't mind trade wars if we are losing so much, with china, i don't like to lose 500 billion, they took oreos, they took carrier.
Rubio: polish workers, trump ties are made of mexico.
Trump: they devalue their currencies, we cant compete with them
Rubio: fake university
Trump: And they did a good job.
Trump: this is a guy who bought a house then sells it to a lobbyist.
Rubio he borrowed 1 million dollars.
Trump I borrowed 1 million and made it into 10 billion
Rubio: show it to taxes.
I have that screaming Rubio girl.
For instance, in the Best Director stakes, Inarittu (The Revenant) is a best-priced 1/7 but Roger's second-best, Lenny Abrahamson for Room, is the outsider of the field at 125/1 with Skybet. Roger's "interesting longshot" for Visual Effects is 80/1 with the Tote, Betfred and Bet365.
Edit: peter_from_putney has a better post along these lines.
Rubio: we will eliminate that executive order, i know people, executive orders are unconstitutional, but this is not about deportation, daca is unconstitutional, i am sympathetic but its unconstitutional, constitution.
I am going to eliminate daca, that is how the program goes down.
Trump: he lies alot
Rubio: i guess there is a statute of limitaion on lies.
Cruz: I am reminded about Rubios ethanol position in Iowa, same as it is like amnesty.
Rubio: that is not accurate, by 2022 it will go away, ethanol, we will not yanking away from it, daca will end at some point, its the end but im sympathetic, constitution obama.
Cruz: its extrordinary that the two of us are cubans, you can only be hispanic if you are liberal, i earned 40% of hispanics in texas, the values are faith family nation, i campaigned in the rio grande, i told my fathers story washing dishes, Obama-clinton economy, everyone struggling in the hispanic community.
Kasich: I m not goint to talk about that, a little girl said that she didn't like all that screaming, my view is economic growth, common sense, regulations, low taxes, economic growth, ohio, everybody can rise, our system, jack kempt, i think they like me, me my children my wife.
Carson: The national association of latinos, i don't fear going there, this is america, liberty justice for all, that's the way, we don't pick, we are compassionate, fabric of america.
Trump: i;m doing very well with hispanics, i settled my suit with univision, i will do really well with hispanics, i have respect but i will do very well, new stronger republican party
Trump: I will uphold religious liberty, justice roberts was strongly pushed by cruz and gave us obamacare, I know Ted feels bad about it, this happened.
Cruz: It was George W not me, i would have nominated someone else, this is a man who gave money to democrats who support far left, he will cut a deal not fight, i will defend.
Trump: i watched ted for 2 days talk and nothing happened, its wonderful, he's been attacking my sister but alito signed that bill too, will he apologioze.
Cruz: I will not apologize for the constitution, democrats are crazies, Reid said he supported Trump, you will cut a deal will Reid.
Rubio: This is an important question, justice scalia, constitution, the next president, Trump said but his record is not on our side, the bottom line, Trump will not be on our side, he defended planned parenthood, he said that he will be neutral for Isreal.
Trump: Regan, planned parenthood, i'm against abortion, however breast cancer womens health are helped by planned parenthood.
Kasich: I;m against gay marriage, i have moved on, were does it end, tommorow if i dont sell to gays i will not sell to divorces. commerce, the supreme court of ohio, not narrow.
Carson: Justice scalia, i met him, religious freedom, constitution, gays have the same rights, no extra rights, that's unfair, congress has to overrule the supreme court, i will look at their past, fruit salad of life
I hope nevertheless it receives the attention it deserves tomorrow or that OGH relaunches it.
There aren't many non-political betting fests on PB.com ....... SPOTY, Eurovision and yes, The Oscars. It would be a a shame if Roger's picks didn't get a decent airing.
Trump: I agree with that but pre existing conditions not ok, I will keep that, the insurance companies get want they want, obamacare threw out of the window, lobbyists, they are part of the problem, get rid of the lines, they make a fortune, i will do what is right, the price will go down, the insurance companies are friends of mine i know them, he is not laughing anymore, they are making a fortune, we should keep pre existing conditions.
Rubio: I took out the bailout, the insurance companies are suing me, what is your plan what is your plan what is your plan.
Trump: I watched him melt down 2 weeks ago with christie, i will get rid of the plan, competition, instead of one company you will have many, you have competition.
Rubio: now he is repeating himself.
Trump: I dont repeat my self you repeat himself, you reated himself 5 minutes ago.
Rubio: you repeat again make america great again.
Trump: i tell the truth, we will have competition between the states, what's to add.
Kasich: its a bit more complicated than that, repeal obamacare, ohio reform, dead squirels, the heritage foundation, if you are a hospital if you are bellow we will reward you, deductibles, people can't afford it, market transparency, low prices, affordable healthcare, not throw people in the cold, in episodes in our lives, they need support and rewards.
Carson: Healthcare is not a right, we spend twice as much, we pay for it with traditional healthcare,every family to be an insurance plan, uncle joe smoking, a lot less money, homeowners policy, 1500 10000 dollars per year, medicare budget, too many people, do the math, let me finish, the money is left, a menu for medicare part c, drug care, no one will want obamacare.
Trump: i do not want socialized medicine, obamacare is a disaster, it doesn't work, premioums are going up, its going to destroy the economy.
Cruz: Did you never say it
Trump: We are going to have private healthcare,we will not have people die in the streets you may want to.
Rubio: this is a republican debate
Trump: call it what you want people will not die in the streets.
Kasich: I have done a balanced budget in ohio, we cut taxes, balanced budget, job growth, common sense regulations, reasonable taxes, ohio, tax cuts, innovating, our credit is strong, shipping everything to the states, 4 years, ohio, jobs opportunity, i will do in 100 days.
Trump: I like Kasich, but they struck oil in ohio.
Kasich: oil doesn't matter, we have amazon, we are low taxes, economic growth, jobs, jobs jobs.
Trump: are you going to ask anyone else a question, i can't release them until the audit is done, as soon as it is done i will do it.
Rubio: I will release them on saturday, there is nothing there, in 3 years 85% will be everything, only 15% will be the military, you have to cut social security, reform them unless the debt issue is dealt, national debt, debt crisis.
Cruz: I will release them tomorrow, an audit will find if Trump lied, 65% think Trump is the wrong, realclear politics i beat hillary, the media will screw trump, hillary is corrupt and make the case, Trump gave money to hillary and cant take her on, we cant lose to hillary.
Trump: i have gave money to everyone, i have beating him everyone in the polls, im beating him some policies, i got 36, 46, and he got 20 and 22 and S.C was his stronghold, i beat him about, I beat hillary look, i had only a little time to attack hillary and she got a rough week.
Cruz: Trump said, Trump is afraid, Trump university with fraud case, the media will go crazy, Trump agrees with hillary sanders obama and cant beat her.
Cruz and Rubio really are throwing the kitchen sink on Trump, its their last opportunity and they know it.
Trump is bad when on defence but he counter attacks strongly as usual, I really hate that Rubio girl that screams everytime Rubio talks, and sometimes i can't hear what is going on by all the screams by the audience.
Rubio's polish workers attack threw Trump off badly at the beginning, Cruz has replaced Bush as Trump's favourate squeeze toy.
If this debate doesn't stop Trump nothing will.
Crus: Hillary and Trump are neutral with israel, i will stand behind israel unapologeticly, palestinians are terrorists, Trump has done nothing to defend isreal.
Trump: I have a great relationship with isreal, it will be great to bring peace there.
Kasich: in 9/11, we are not certain were we stand, our allies don't know, S.Koreans, N.korea, china.
Rubio: Trump doesnt realize that its an anti-israel positions, palestinians are bad and evil, hamas lauches rockets, no peace deal , no peace is possible, i should be president i will be on isreal side.
Trump: Im a negotiator Marco is not a negotiator, I watched him meltdown.
Rubio: a deal is not a deal
Trump: a deal is a deal, you will never bring peace, i think i might be able.
Trump: We are in a position due to debt 19 trillion, we can't defend germany our s.korea, they are making a fortune, s.arabia, we defend them for peanuts, we have to be payed back.
Kasich: the japanese and the europeans have to do more, balanced budget plan, reform pentagon, weapons system, bureaucrats.
Carson: People say that i whine a lot, you said that you would be fair to me, what about taxes, taxes are wrong, i never got audited it until i got against obama, they wont find anything, get rid of the IRS, israel doesn't think we turned our backs, judeo-christian foundation, we have to be fair to our own child, Kim jon un understands strength, we need to have robust naval presence, SDI (star wars).
Mitt Romney Verified account @MittRomney
No legit reason @realDonaldTrump can't release returns while being audited, but if scared, release earlier returns no longer under audit.
Cruz: obama is weak, russia has taken advantage of that, we need a clear difference with obama and hillary, libya, kerry, Trump and Rubio supported kerry, he's anti israel, no to kerry.
Trump: i gave them both checks, i never discussed that subjects, if politicians were on the beach, Saddam and Gaddafi killed terrorists, isis is taking over the oil, we would have been better off.
Rubio: we never toppled gaddafi, Cruz supports leading from behind, kerry is better than hillary, S.Korea and japan pay lots of money, we cant walk away because they will get nukes.
Trump: i will not walk away but i will want them to pay money, im a tough critic of kerry, the iran deal is a disaster.
Cruz: Trump said on Cruz.org, kerry was a disaster, obama boycotted isreal, bloomberg lifted the ban on isreal, were was Trump, why did he supported anti isreal, you dont write checks to anti isreal.
Trump: i have done a lot about isreal, you are all talk and no action, this is a liar, and this is a joker.
Rubio: This is a
Carson: can somebody attack me please.
Cruz: Trump called me a liar, what we are seeing with Trump is the Washington establishment, Carter supports Trump not me, accusing me of been a liar is a lie.
Trump: i watched the lobbyists, i watched what cruz did to carson in iowa, i also watched his fake form, he scared people to vote cruz, it was worse, i know politicians better than you.
Cruz: for 40 years you funded liberals.
Trump: i funded you.
messy fight.
Trump: Go ahead dont get nervous, go ahead.
Cruz: errmmm
Cruz: excuse me.
Moderator: you had your chance.
Cruz: Rubio was on both sides, now he agrees with me, apple should comply with the court order, i would agree with apple, enforce the court order against apple.
Carson: Allowing terrorists to get away is bad for america, we have a constitution, but we have a judicial framework, fisa courts, i expect them to comply.
Kasich: where is obama, you should work it out behind the scenes, make a meeting with apple and lock the door, protect the rights and get the right think, i do this all the time, an executive can do it.
Moderator ask why canada doesnt get a wall
Trump: we have far less problems with canada than mexico, in N.H. the biggest problem is heroin, it poors from the southern border, the problem with canada is that is too long border, its not our big problem, its the drugs that are coming in.
Rubio: bankruptcy doesnt work, taxes are too high, the leadership has to put their house in order, if they do that we will think about it, it wont solve any problem, we would prefer a growing puerto rico.
They are still throwing the kitchen sink on Trump, but it works less and less, Trump has found a new squeeze toy to replace Bush and he's called Cruz.
Rubio is a more effective attacker on Trump than Cruz, but Trump is also adapting on their attacks, so much that Cruz was stuck speechless by Trump saying go ahead attack me if you dare after Trump said I also funded you over the Cruz attack that Trump funded liberals.
Again if this debate doesn't stop Trump nothing will.
Carson: what kind of leader do your kinds want to emulate, 30 years ago a movie was made about my hands, join my hands with mine.
Kasich: The last poll had me beating hillary, balancing budgets, regulations, ohio, i have foreign policy experience, give me your vote, make america moving again.
Rubio: we have come along way, identity of party and conservative movement, go to my website, but an end to this silliness, conservative movement.
Cruz: washington deal are bad, i have stood up against deals, i will delete all laws, i will persecute planned parentood, abolish obamacare, no iran deal, i will bring jobs.
Trump: i know politicians they are all talk no action, trade, taking care of our vets, no common core, obamacare, i will make it done, they will never make it done, make america great again.
The kitchen sink was thrown at Trump by Cruz and Rubio.
They attacked him on everything about ideology, taxes, healthcare and isreal, Rubio did better that Cruz.
On healthcare Rubio attacked Trump on specifics, that was both Trump's and Rubio's better segments, Trump by appearing compassionate, Rubio by making Trump lacking details.
Trump still has a problem defending himself, but he's very effective attacking and counter attacking, he also gained time with his taxes by using the audit as his defence.
Rubio came ahead on some areas like the repeating stuff on Trump but nothing damaging as Trump covered by counter attacking on Rubio and Romney, the polish jobs spat was an example.
Cruz was defeated in the end by Trump, the moment that Cruz about attacked Trump on him funding liberals and Trump said "I funded you", topped by Trump taunting Cruz " go ahead, don't be nervous, go ahead" and Cruz blowing it so much the moderator said "you had your chance"
Rubio won the debate since he was the most effective attacker on Trump, Trump wasn't far behind in appearing more reasonable than others and by beating Cruz in the end.
Kasich too was very good on domestic affairs, but regime change in N.Korea makes people remember iraq.
Carson really wants attention.
Rubio 7/10
Trump 6/10
Kasich 5/10
Cruz 4/10
Carson 3/10
One thing that I saw was Rubio moving to the right, pitching about this whole election being about conservatism, clearly he's after Cruz voters.
I also hate the screaming Rubio girl.
It seems from the body language that everyone is ready to accept the inevitable. How could it be otherwise against such a tornado, tearing across the political landscape?
Rubio did win (just), Trump didn't lose, but Cruz lost.
The media will crown Rubio emperor or something for this as usual, but I don't think it alters the race as Trump didn't lose, it's up the the pollsters of course to determine it, but it's clear that Cruz is finished.
You can sum the debate as "too little too late".
Goodnight.
Many thanks Roger, for the Oscar's round-up – glad to see the return of an old PB favourite.
I disagree on Best Supporting Actress - can't see past Kate Winslet in Steve Jobs.
On Costume Design, I think the wife's good buddy Sandy Powell (she was Sandy's guest at the Oscar's a few years back) may well lose out by having two films nominated (Cinderella and Carol), as she did in the BAFTAs (again to Mad Max's "the bag lady", as Stephen Fry ungallantly called Jenny Beavan). But get yourself an Oscar frock, Jenny!
On Makeup, I thought that Black Mass was cruelly overlooked for a nomination - their transformation of Johnny Depp was spectacular. In its absence, I'll agree with Roger.
On Visual Effects, I think that the movie money machine that is the Star Wars franchise may well get the nod. But I loved Ex Machina (although I thought the script missed the opportunity for a great twist!).
I liked Shaun the Sheep but I would think it too “British” for American voters.
I loved the insight into Apple that because Jobs REALLY didn't want anyone to tamper with his machines they didn't have the tools to get into the Mac when it had problems at its launch - a simple screw driver wouldn't do!
The Revenant was beautifully filmed and Leonardo's performance a tour de force - if he wins it will also be 'most grunts per oscar' - but I did feel it could have benefitted from being shorter.
Inside Out brilliant - not only beautifully done but wonderfully written and very clever.....
Sky News understands senior figures in UKIP have discussed trying to suspend the party's only MP over his backing for a rival leave the EU group.
Douglas Carswell supports Vote Leave, which is also backed by six Conservative cabinet rebels, but Nigel Farage has thrown his weight behind Leave.EU and its umbrella group offshoot Grassroots Out (GO).
http://news.sky.com/story/1648918/ukip-infighting-over-rival-eu-leave-campaigns
I went into a bookmakers and asked him to put £10 on each of my 20 picks as I always do and as he was going through them he said "You surely don't wan't me to put it on this-it's 100/1 on! I didn't know which film he was talking about because I deliberately don't look at the odds .
I suppose the deciding factor is how well the Revenant does, as Oscars do seem highly clumped together rather than shared across several worthy contenders.
The Revenant did cover the brutality and barbarity of the American west quite well, and the cinematography was tremendous, but it is far from Leo's best performance. Acting is about making the unreal plausible, and at several parts I thought Leo would be dead. He would have died of exposure in that icy river, his clothes would have been too waterlogged to move in afterwards, the throat wound would have been fatal and not healed so fast. The bearskin that he carried would have weighed over 100lb and couldn't have been worn by an injured man with a makeshift ankle support and crutch etc etc. The implausibilities just grated too much for my medical eyes!
It is one of my bug-bears though about modern "action" films - the sheer implausibility of the way people get slammed into unyielding objects and just never end up with a broken back. Or even concussion.
I thought the Big Short was truly excellent and would well deserve the best film although I agree with SeanT that Inside Out was sadly overlooked. The Revenant too long and shapeless for me but I do feel that Di Caprio has been unfairly overlooked so many times his win is inevitable.
http://time.com/money/4238000/weird-oscar-bets-academy-awards/ etc
I agree completely with the cerebral way you think the performance should be judged and sometimes that works but at others a film or performance just stay in your head for days weeks or months after you've seen the film for no reason but force of personality. And I think this was an example of that. I didn't think he was nearly as commanding or original as he was in the Wolf of Wall Street for example but when you think of the film his presence as much as the lanscape is all over it.
Still, thanks a lot for this Roger, it's great to get such an informed view.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/feb/26/irrational-unhinged-gullible-many-who-want-britain-out-of-europe-deserve-listened?CMP=share_btn_tw
I'd say he's spot on. Articles like this are why the Guardian remains an important source, despite its general annoyingness.
https://trends.google.com/trends/story/US_cu_pF04D1MBAADP0M_en
I like that vicar.
Have had a punt on some of your picks.
I accept though that life can sometimes be implausible, just look at the life story of Captain Winkle Brown who died earlier in the week:
http://m.edinburghnews.scotsman.com/news/eric-winkle-brown-s-death-prompts-calls-for-memorial-1-4036887
A story too unreal to be true.
Well the second part of that starts at the very top
They had a good day, yesterday claiming that Evelyn Waugh as one of the best selling female writers.
Ringleaders of the #Rotherham sex abuse scandal could lose their #UK citizenship https://t.co/0BuPtl5MhY https://t.co/vCBCZhJOI8
Thanks Speedy for the GOP debate live report (again). I salute your courage, your strength, your indefatigability.
Still chuckling over Carsons plea for someone to attack him. And Trump's ties
CNN seem to judge a points win for Rubio, but no knock out blows tonight.
@seththoughts
I know, we're all immune to "Trump is going to collapse" arguments. But he has dropped big-time in markets tonight. This was a bad night.
@LJZigerell http://predictwise.com From 75 % to 70 %.
LOL
Thanks to Mr. Roger for his comprehensive Oscars cogitations. Not a film goer, so I might browse the market and see if any odds seem longer than they should.
Obviously killed by the noise, or else a sudden and massive heart attack.
I blame the diet.