Anecdote: I had dinner recently with an old Tory friend who is involved with the Leave effort, knows Aaron Banks well, and is familiar with the efforts to coordinate the campaign. He says the difficulty in forming a joint campaign has two insurmountable obstacles: the people are incompatible and often difficult and in a few cases unpleasant characters, and they disagree on the fundamental question of whether post-Leave the outcome should be the EEA (with free movement intact) or not. Therefore, people have entirely stopped trying to get a united view, and everyone will do their own thing, with the money going to the camp backed by the Cabinet members and the rest acting as outriders. He agrees it's a problem, but "we can only do what's possible for what we think is right". He shrugged and said they expected to lose, but "you never know". Seemed a fair summary.
By the way, maybe it's my foreign background, but isn't the "shake it all about" metaphor long past its sell-by date? How many people now alive have ever participated in or watched the dance which I think it refers to? Do young people get the reference at all?
Yes.
I went to school in the nineties, and it was a firm fixture of parties etc.
And it wasn't even an especially U prep school.
Nick, I have three daughters under 6 and I can assure you that the Hokey-Cokey remains a fixture of childrens' parties to this day. I'd be pretty surprised if anyone British didn't know it.
I confess that I am less confident about Leave than I was. If the disparity between the campaigns in competence and focus continues then I think Remain will win.
Caveat, though, is that we need more polling. The polls may not be accurate but they show trends. We need more than a couple of polls showing a move to Remain.
Remain is very much non U in my 'umble opinion. People like Kenneth Clarke and Michael Heseltine who was famously described by Alan Clark as 'someone who bought his own furniture'. If anything there's a large element of social insecurity in Remain; the wish to be part of a new European elite in the leadership, and the horror of Daily Mail readers within the rank and file - horror because they realise they are little more than a jar of pesto and a Guardian subscription from these people themselves. The (admittedly few) aristocrats I've experienced have been openly patriotic and don't revile the lower middle class.
Very true re: Clarke/Heseltine. Clark's withering 'furniture' comment is, like most of his witticisms, cripplingly accurate social commentary. Truly infra dig to have to buy your own beds and tables.
I agree re: the social insecurity issue, too. When you live in a castle you don't care about the new elite. When you live in Islington, you are the new elite and care deeply about getting the right pesto and newspaper combination.
My (vaguely) landed pals are generally the most fun in the pub, on the hunting field and at dinner parties. I've had to cut short many a bawdy joke from OEs and OHs as we're heading up garden paths whilst canvassing in suburbia.
Anecdote: I had dinner recently with an old Tory friend who is involved with the Leave effort, knows Aaron Banks well, and is familiar with the efforts to coordinate the campaign. He says the difficulty in forming a joint campaign has two insurmountable obstacles: the people are incompatible and often difficult and in a few cases unpleasant characters, and they disagree on the fundamental question of whether post-Leave the outcome should be the EEA (with free movement intact) or not. Therefore, people have entirely stopped trying to get a united view, and everyone will do their own thing, with the money going to the camp backed by the Cabinet members and the rest acting as outriders. He agrees it's a problem, but "we can only do what's possible for what we think is right". He shrugged and said they expected to lose, but "you never know". Seemed a fair summary.
By the way, maybe it's my foreign background, but isn't the "shake it all about" metaphor long past its sell-by date? How many people now alive have ever participated in or watched the dance which I think it refers to? Do young people get the reference at all?
The reference itself, probably not, but as a meme, as a phrase? Probably yes. There are innumerable examples of things people will get the intent of even if the provenance of the reference is unknown, I suspect.
That is a possibility, and that does not sound terrible to me.
Christ the lack of ambition of so many Brits is depressing, reminds me of why I do business in Asia. No one is concerned about the future of their country, or the possibilities of a better and more prosperous life for their grandchildren, or reaching out across the world and becoming a truly global country, not stuck in a decaying backwater.
Oh no, everyone is concerned it might cost them £2.50 a month off their pension, or they might have a couple extra forms to fill in once a year. The poverty of ambition is breathtaking. The UK doesn't reach for the stars any more, it reaches for the six pack of lager and turns of Big Brother.
I will lose a lot of respect for my fellow Britons if they fall en-masse for these scare tactics.
I wouldn't. It's natural for people to believe powerful vested interests who promise them the terrors of the earth. I blame the powerful vested interests, not the people who believe them.
I am venting. I would also blame Leave for fighting like a sack of kittens, and myself for my lack of restraint and intemperance.
The problem with our side is that we have no coherent vision for a post-EU world. Obviously, individually we all have coherent visions, and yours, Richard Tyndall and mine all look remarkably similar. But our vision is very different to that of Plato and Nigel Farage. The Indigo answer of "we'll sort it out on the other side" misses the fact that for many voters, the order of preference is EEA > EU > Fortress UK.
I blame, to some extent, the desire to motivate all parts of the base. But I think it is fundamentally flawed as a strategy because it means that the Leave side will appear shifty and disingenuous. Grassroots, Leave.EU, Vote Leave need to sit down this week. They need to agree that the Norwegian or Swiss model is what we're going for. Nigel needs to swallow the fact that he's only going to get 50% of what he wants. Because if he doesn't, he'll end up with 0%.
I think its unfair to class an end state with some limits on migration as "fortress UK". Is Canada "fortress Canada"??
Sure, sure.
I just think it is better to tweak outcomes by changing incentives, rather than hard quotas.
We shouldn't have quotas. Just qualification thresholds.
I'm not even anti-immigration. Just see how much animosity and anger it causes. That ain't good for a functioning political system. Hardliners can manipulate it to push the working class to vote against their economic interests.
Mr. P, an unkind fellow might suggest Aaronovitch has form in believing arguments that turn out to be bogus, then greatly regretting it after the fact.
Mr. P, an unkind fellow might suggest Aaronovitch has form in believing arguments that turn out to be bogus, then greatly regretting it after the fact.
I like Dominic Grieve as much as I like Michael Gove, but on the legal front Grieve has a mind and knowledge the size of Jupiter.
That is a possibility, and that does not sound terrible to me.
Christ the lack of ambition of so many Brits is depressing, reminds me of why I do business in Asia. No one is concerned about the future of their country, or the possibilities of a better and more prosperous life for their grandchildren, or reaching out across the world and becoming a truly global country, not stuck in a decaying backwater.
Oh no, everyone is concerned it might cost them £2.50 a month off their pension, or they might have a couple extra forms to fill in once a year. The poverty of ambition is breathtaking. The UK doesn't reach for the stars any more, it reaches for the six pack of lager and turns of Big Brother.
I will lose a lot of respect for my fellow Britons if they fall en-masse for these scare tactics.
The concrete beats the abstract in most peoples' minds. They have learned to be wary of Grand Visions of either left or right - things tend to work out much more messily. If people genuinely felt that being inside or outside the EU would transform the future of the country and their grandchildren, they'd vote accordingly. Failing that, they vote for £2.50 a month.
You and I and many of us on this site are primarily motivated by more abstract themes - for instance, I'm basically a European and I positively like the idea that the continent will gradually merge so we work together for our common good. I'd be pleased to pay £2.50 a month to help make it happen. I respect your contrary view that Britain should be proudly independent and carving out its own excellent future. But if we're honest with each other, aren't we both more in hope that expectation, and in reality the forseeable future will probably either be a sometimes grumpy and difficult coalition of countries in the EU or a sometimes awkward and fractious existence outside it? Perhaps the £2.50 people see it more clearly than we do?
Quite appropriate, really, both 'Remain' and 'Stay' come from the French:
Remain Late Middle English: from Old French remain-, stressed stem of remanoir, from Latin remanere, from re- (expressing intensive force) + manere 'to stay'.
Mr. P, an unkind fellow might suggest Aaronovitch has form in believing arguments that turn out to be bogus, then greatly regretting it after the fact.
Europhile on centre-left cheers on pro-EU Tory wet, shock.
Mr. P, an unkind fellow might suggest Aaronovitch has form in believing arguments that turn out to be bogus, then greatly regretting it after the fact.
Leave should commit to abolishing VAT on women's hygiene products and domestic gas and electricity bills with the saved EU contribution.
They need to come up with a carefully planned budget that makes sure every potentially aggrieved group will get more money: Northern Ireland, Wales, poor English regions, rural communities, university students, scientists.
Mr. P, an unkind fellow might suggest Aaronovitch has form in believing arguments that turn out to be bogus, then greatly regretting it after the fact.
I like Dominic Grieve as much as I like Michael Gove, but on the legal front Grieve has a mind and knowledge the size of Jupiter.
Is Grieve an expert on how European Law will interpret the deal, as per the comments of @Cyclefree yesterday?
Actual real live people, walked into a polling station and ticked her name
Nine people voted for Rick Santorum!!
And remember - this is a caucus, not a primary. They didn't tick the wrong box by accident; they stood up in a room to be counted and openly declared themselves loyal followers of a halfwit who withdrew from the race weeks ago.
Think we saw a good deal of this poll a day or two ago, but not sure we saw the figures on whether Labour members would give Corbyn another landslide if they had to choose again (absolutely- up from 59% to 62%) and if they'd vote McDonnell if Corbyn stepped down (less clear).
That is a possibility, and that does not sound terrible to me.
Christ the lack of ambition of so many Brits is depressing, reminds me of why I do business in Asia. No one is concerned about the future of their country, or the possibilities of a better and more prosperous life for their grandchildren, or reaching out across the world and becoming a truly global country, not stuck in a decaying backwater.
Oh no, everyone is concerned it might cost them £2.50 a month off their pension, or they might have a couple extra forms to fill in once a year. The poverty of ambition is breathtaking. The UK doesn't reach for the stars any more, it reaches for the six pack of lager and turns of Big Brother.
I will lose a lot of respect for my fellow Britons if they fall en-masse for these scare tactics.
Would it make you want to leave and go to a different country?
No, of course not. I'm just pissed off.
We've always been renowned for our common sense, historically, not easily frightened, and very good at sniffing out bullshit a mile away.
Willingness to run risks or accept hardship is related to the possible pay-off. Many people don't see any advantage for themselves in Brexit so it's unlikely they will run the risk of even very mild suffering for it. That's where Project Fear can work. People may not believe they'll be £3000 a year worse of or £1000 or even £500 but in their mind they are thinking they really don't want to be £5 out of pocket for something that doesn't mean a lot to them.
Which is to say that Leave needs to explain how, on the contrary, there will be immediate tangible benefits from leaving.
MalcolmG put it well the other day when he said too many people will be scared of losing a fiver.
I think we'll have plenty of people who are eurosceptic, have no love for the EU and would ideally like to leave, but will vote Remain in the ballot box out of fear.
The EU will interpret that as a wholesale recommitment to the whole project.
Anecdote: I had dinner recently with an old Tory friend who is involved with the Leave effort, knows Aaron Banks well, and is familiar with the efforts to coordinate the campaign. He says the difficulty in forming a joint campaign has two insurmountable obstacles: the people are incompatible and often difficult and in a few cases unpleasant characters, and they disagree on the fundamental question of whether post-Leave the outcome should be the EEA (with free movement intact) or not. Therefore, people have entirely stopped trying to get a united view, and everyone will do their own thing, with the money going to the camp backed by the Cabinet members and the rest acting as outriders. He agrees it's a problem, but "we can only do what's possible for what we think is right". He shrugged and said they expected to lose, but "you never know". Seemed a fair summary.
By the way, maybe it's my foreign background, but isn't the "shake it all about" metaphor long past its sell-by date? How many people now alive have ever participated in or watched the dance which I think it refers to? Do young people get the reference at all?
You clearly don't have young children. I can confirm that the "hokey cokey" is still going strong at children's parties and even a 4-year-old would get the reference.
Mr. P, an unkind fellow might suggest Aaronovitch has form in believing arguments that turn out to be bogus, then greatly regretting it after the fact.
I like Dominic Grieve as much as I like Michael Gove, but on the legal front Grieve has a mind and knowledge the size of Jupiter.
Is Grieve an expert on how European Law will interpret the deal, as per the comments of @Cyclefree yesterday?
I would assume so, he is an eminent QC and also held that minor legal role of Attorney General
Mr. Royale, a 60/40 Remain win is more or less what I expect.
Mr. Eagles, perhaps not. But Gove is the closest thing to a Cameroon true believer. For him to go to Remain, he must feel very strongly about this. Grieve is nestled in his pro-EU comfort zone.
That a Brexit vote might provoke a less than conciliatory response in other European capitals is taken by hardline sceptics as proof that the whole enterprise is an Anglophobe plot. The argument appears to be that friends who refuse to re-open a door once it has been slammed angrily in their faces are not true friends after all, which in turn just goes to show that slamming doors is the most effective way to deal with them; it’s the only language they understand.
One of the things that Leave needs to make clear is that the status quo isn't on offer. If we remain in the EU we are looking more EU witht increasing integration and being consistently outvoted by the eurozone.
Mr. P, an unkind fellow might suggest Aaronovitch has form in believing arguments that turn out to be bogus, then greatly regretting it after the fact.
I like Dominic Grieve as much as I like Michael Gove, but on the legal front Grieve has a mind and knowledge the size of Jupiter.
Is Grieve an expert on how European Law will interpret the deal, as per the comments of @Cyclefree yesterday?
I would assume so, he is an eminent QC and also held that minor legal role of Attorney General
Those are important roles in English law, but very different to how the European Courts will interpret any deal.
Indeed I think the differences between English and Continental legal systems are the source of a lot of problems and misunderstandings about the EU.
concepts like sovereignty which mean far less to most people than last week's losing lottery ticket.
Which is too depressing for words. People are so obsessed by the minutiae of their lives, so fearful that something might change, that they never glance up to ask who is running the show and why. They just accept it as a fact.
As Stephen Hawking said : "Look up at the stars, not down at your feet"
Very few people (apart from posters on PB) give a passing thought to anything apart from their own lives - minutiae if you like, but not how they see it. They don't care who's running the show, they just know it's not them. For 61% of them who voted in the last GA, the people running the show aren't the ones they voted for. So they will shrug, get on with their 'minutiae' and leave looking at the stars to others.
One of the things that Leave needs to make clear is that the status quo isn't on offer. If we remain in the EU we are looking more EU witht increasing integration and being consistently outvoted by the eurozone.
That true but too abstract. You need to focus it on "the French and Germans could rule our economy".
Mr. P, an unkind fellow might suggest Aaronovitch has form in believing arguments that turn out to be bogus, then greatly regretting it after the fact.
I like Dominic Grieve as much as I like Michael Gove, but on the legal front Grieve has a mind and knowledge the size of Jupiter.
Is Grieve an expert on how European Law will interpret the deal, as per the comments of @Cyclefree yesterday?
I would assume so, he is an eminent QC and also held that minor legal role of Attorney General
Then he should know that the ECJ always finds for ever closer union, regardless of what governments have agreed.
Mr. P, an unkind fellow might suggest Aaronovitch has form in believing arguments that turn out to be bogus, then greatly regretting it after the fact.
I like Dominic Grieve as much as I like Michael Gove, but on the legal front Grieve has a mind and knowledge the size of Jupiter.
Is Grieve an expert on how European Law will interpret the deal, as per the comments of @Cyclefree yesterday?
I would assume so, he is an eminent QC and also held that minor legal role of Attorney General
Eminent QCs are not free of bias and are expert in advocating arguments from whatever angle they wish.
Its funny how this euro debate affects the mind. I was planning my summer holiday last night, 10 days touring Andalucia in June. Alhambra, wineries, walking in the countryside.
Quite appropriate, really, both 'Remain' and 'Stay' come from the French:
Remain Late Middle English: from Old French remain-, stressed stem of remanoir, from Latin remanere, from re- (expressing intensive force) + manere 'to stay'.
Just an aside, but Boris had a very good line in general terms of the debate. Leave should focus on taking back control, and saving money. Easy to point to the £7bn or whatever insane amount we fling towards the gaping maws of unaccountable bureaucracy every year and say "We wouldn't have to pay that."
The Daily Mail has lost all pretense to provide a sensible narrative of the referendum debate and arguably are more extreme in their hatred of those who support remain than even the daily express. For those of us who are seeking a persuasive case to leave it is just a turn off and it would be interesting if the Daily Mail will see a reduction in it's sales until post the referendum. I would cancel it and read it on line but my wife loves the puzzles so it will still be delivered but left unread by myself
Funny how the Daily Mail is the UK's best selling newspaper, and even though loads of people quote articles from it and decry its editorial stance, nobody ever reads it.
Matthew Goodwin One thing Remain has to avoid? Accidentally inciting a populist revolt around Englishness #euref (from my talk 2day) https://t.co/WkfDQDOaiC
Easy to point to the £7bn or whatever insane amount we fling towards the gaping maws of unaccountable bureaucracy every year and say "We wouldn't have to pay that."
Except that's not true.
Once we take back "sovereignty" (sic) and have to write new trade deals with everybody, are those civil servants going to do it for free?
Speaking of Englishness, or lack thereof, read in the Mail the other day the BBC are thinking of having separate news for Scotland at six. Seems crackers to me.
That is a possibility, and that does not sound terrible to me.
Christ the lack of ambition of so many Brits is depressing, reminds me of why I do business in Asia. No one is concerned about the future of their country, or the possibilities of a better and more prosperous life for their grandchildren, or reaching out across the world and becoming a truly global country, not stuck in a decaying backwater.
Oh no, everyone is concerned it might cost them £2.50 a month off their pension, or they might have a couple extra forms to fill in once a year. The poverty of ambition is breathtaking. The UK doesn't reach for the stars any more, it reaches for the six pack of lager and turns of Big Brother.
I will lose a lot of respect for my fellow Britons if they fall en-masse for these scare tactics.
I wouldn't. It's natural for people to believe powerful vested interests who promise them the terrors of the earth. I blame the powerful vested interests, not the people who believe them.
I am venting. I would also blame Leave for fighting like a sack of kittens, and myself for my lack of restraint and intemperance.
The problem with our side is that we have no coherent vision for a post-EU world. Obviously, individually we all have coherent visions, and yours, Richard Tyndall and mine all look remarkably similar. But our vision is very different to that of Plato and Nigel Farage. The Indigo answer of "we'll sort it out on the other side" misses the fact that for many voters, the order of preference is EEA > EU > Fortress UK.
I blame, to some extent, the desire to motivate all parts of the base. But I think it is fundamentally flawed as a strategy because it means that the Leave side will appear shifty and disingenuous. Grassroots, Leave.EU, Vote Leave need to sit down this week. They need to agree that the Norwegian or Swiss model is what we're going for. Nigel needs to swallow the fact that he's only going to get 50% of what he wants. Because if he doesn't, he'll end up with 0%.
I think its unfair to class an end state with some limits on migration as "fortress UK". Is Canada "fortress Canada"??
Try opening an office in Canada or the US, the tell me. It's basically impossible unless you want to pay huge sus of money and make big and expensive employment commitments. Then there are the tax implications ...
Mr. Eagles, that's a good name for Mogg the Fifth. Pius after a pope, or the Roman emperor, I wonder.
Mr. P, you say 'have to' as if conducting our own trade agreements in our own best interest is some sort of laborious chore rather than a positive advantage.
And yes, we would probably pay a greatly reduced sum, and have greater self-control into the bargain. Sounds damned good to me. But then, I rather like the concept of self-government.
Sad news in the entertainment world. Larry LaPrise, who wrote the song and dance classic 'The Hokey Pokey' is dead at 93. His funeral went off with only one hitch, while transferring Larry to his coffin, they put his left leg in, and that's when the trouble began.
So, Gove reckons that the deal, such as it is, is not even legally binding. Given that the rest of the Justice ministers are campaigning for Leave, one has to conclude that they agree with him. Now, if the entire justice department believes this to be the case, it's hard to conclude that they are wrong.
Easy to point to the £7bn or whatever insane amount we fling towards the gaping maws of unaccountable bureaucracy every year and say "We wouldn't have to pay that."
Except that's not true.
Once we take back "sovereignty" (sic) and have to write new trade deals with everybody, are those civil servants going to do it for free?
Of course not in reality, but it puts Cameron et al in the difficult position of having to rubbish the claim by insisting that the European bureaucracy is actually really efficient, and we couldn't do the same work any cheaper... or accepting that there is a saving to be made.
The Daily Mail has lost all pretense to provide a sensible narrative of the referendum debate and arguably are more extreme in their hatred of those who support remain than even the daily express. For those of us who are seeking a persuasive case to leave it is just a turn off and it would be interesting if the Daily Mail will see a reduction in it's sales until post the referendum. I would cancel it and read it on line but my wife loves the puzzles so it will still be delivered but left unread by myself
Agree with you on puzzles. Yes if you just read a headline you will not find a kernel of truth until you read the last line of the text. A disgrace to journalism. No wonder Cam is thought to believe that Editor Dacre is unfit to be a peer - much to Dacre's annoyance.
Bruges Group Marks &Spencer have issued a statement saying that outgoing CEO Marc Bolland signed yesterday 's letter to the Times in a personal capacity
Actual real live people, walked into a polling station and ticked her name
Nine people voted for Rick Santorum!!
And remember - this is a caucus, not a primary. They didn't tick the wrong box by accident; they stood up in a room to be counted and openly declared themselves loyal followers of a halfwit who withdrew from the race weeks ago.
They know their guy (or gal) can't win. Is no longer still in the race. But each of these candidates would have had some "organization" to run their campaign state wide. It is probably just confirming that they still have a close friendship with that candidate - and a belief that they were right to support them. And that they'll be there again, if their guy (or gal) runs in 2020.
What is surprising is that the number is so tiny. A handful of people in some cases.
Great, add Icke to Farage, Galloway and Jacob Rees-Mogg. Isn't that enough to make everyone want to vote Remain?
Quite so.
Whilst REMAIN also has a notable sprinkling of "interesting" characters nobody is any doubt that the PM leads REMAIN whilst LEAVE is led by nobody which allows their opponents to fill the void with lashings of Marmite in jars named Galloway, Farage, Sheridan and now Icke, the latter obviously intoning on the evils of EU lizards.
LEAVE require a vaguely personable heavyweight to front their campaign but presently such a search is proving fruitless and in the meantime the personable and ever so reasoned Prime Minister holds sway.
There is an additional problem with sub samples of UK polls now over and above the sub samples being 61 which limits even their entertainment value.
The polls are rebalancing to eliminate anti- Tory bias in the election. But the election polls in Scotland OVERESTMATED the Tory vote not the opposite. So the UK polls are rebalancing in the wrong direction.
That is why last weeks MORI full Scottish sample at 16 per cent Tory is a much better indication of trends. That suggests that allowing the narrative that the Tory objective was second place was very foolish as it is setting Davidson up for a hefty fall.
Think we saw a good deal of this poll a day or two ago, but not sure we saw the figures on whether Labour members would give Corbyn another landslide if they had to choose again (absolutely- up from 59% to 62%) and if they'd vote McDonnell if Corbyn stepped down (less clear).
All that shows is that Labour members are almost entirely insulated from the effects of on-going Conservative government. Good for them. But let's not pretend that they are actually interested in obtaining power to do anything about helping the poorest and most vulnerable in society, let alone the rest of us.
Mr. P, an unkind fellow might suggest Aaronovitch has form in believing arguments that turn out to be bogus, then greatly regretting it after the fact.
I like Dominic Grieve as much as I like Michael Gove, but on the legal front Grieve has a mind and knowledge the size of Jupiter.
Is Grieve an expert on how European Law will interpret the deal, as per the comments of @Cyclefree yesterday?
I would assume so, he is an eminent QC and also held that minor legal role of Attorney General
Eminent QCs are not free of bias and are expert in advocating arguments from whatever angle they wish.
Mr. P, an unkind fellow might suggest Aaronovitch has form in believing arguments that turn out to be bogus, then greatly regretting it after the fact.
I like Dominic Grieve as much as I like Michael Gove, but on the legal front Grieve has a mind and knowledge the size of Jupiter.
Is Grieve an expert on how European Law will interpret the deal, as per the comments of @Cyclefree yesterday?
I would assume so, he is an eminent QC and also held that minor legal role of Attorney General
Eminent QCs are not free of bias and are expert in advocating arguments from whatever angle they wish.
As also are eminent politicians (including those in the Justice Department with no legal training whatever)
Sad news in the entertainment world. Larry LaPrise, who wrote the song and dance classic 'The Hokey Pokey' is dead at 93. His funeral went off with only one hitch, while transferring Larry to his coffin, they put his left leg in, and that's when the trouble began.
F1: Raikkonen not out yet. Apparently a fuel pick up issue caused Vettel to halt yesterday, and the problem's still being resolved. If it's an early teething problem, that's fine. If it's something that proves ongoing, that could be more difficult.
Otherwise, reliability on the grid seems pretty good. Haas' nose fell off, but they're not the first team to which that's happened.
Good news for Labour in places like West Ham, Tottenham and Camberwell where the electorate has actually gone up over the last year rather than declining as they might have feared due to the new rules.
Some big changes in the Scottish constituency numbers by the looks of it.
Genuinely interested in the insight of our North British friends on those. Lots of people moving from Scotland, Lots of old registers? Lots of transient residents?
Bruges Group Marks &Spencer have issued a statement saying that outgoing CEO Marc Bolland signed yesterday 's letter to the Times in a personal capacity
The big retailers really should stay out of it - their voters get a vote on a daily basis and which ever way they jump they risk cheesing off about half of them.....
According to the experts on Vote2012 the quota is in fact 74,769 with a range from 71,031 and 78,507. Some of the Scottish islands are excluded from the calculation which I'd forgotten.
Anyone punting on the euroref needs to take account of The Master Prof.John Curtice.He would not put his name to this if he did not believe this is quality information.A little bit of sanity at last.The status quo always swings it.
The date of the UK referendum on EU membership is set, and the campaigning has begun. Prime Minister David Cameron sees European mobile co-operation as a key part of the case for voting Remain.
The implication of this was twofold: that the smooth co-operation that gave Europe a lead in digital mobile in the 1990s and early part of the century would be interrupted, and that the UK was therefore reliant on EU co-operation for mobile interoperability.
But he might need to check the history books first...
Mr. W, Remain also has Gerry Adams, Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell.
The debate should be about the issues. Both sides have plenty of clowns.
I indicated so.
However currently it's like a general election where the opposition is rudderless, completely unsure of what a win would mean and with multiple "leaders" and expect to lose the campaign anyway - somewhat like the Green Party ..
That is a possibility, and that does not sound terrible to me.
Christ the lack of ambition of so many Brits is depressing, reminds me of why I do business in Asia. No one is concerned about the future of their country, or the possibilities of a better and more prosperous life for their grandchildren, or reaching out across the world and becoming a truly global country, not stuck in a decaying backwater.
Oh no, everyone is concerned it might cost them £2.50 a month off their pension, or they might have a couple extra forms to fill in once a year. The poverty of ambition is breathtaking. The UK doesn't reach for the stars any more, it reaches for the six pack of lager and turns of Big Brother.
I will lose a lot of respect for my fellow Britons if they fall en-masse for these scare tactics.
I wouldn't. It's natural for people to believe powerful vested interests who promise them the terrors of the earth. I blame the powerful vested interests, not the people who believe them.
I am venting. I would also blame Leave for fighting like a sack of kittens, and myself for my lack of restraint and intemperance.
The problem with our side is that we have no coherent vision for a post-EU world. Obviously, individually we all have coherent visions, and yours, Richard Tyndall and mine all look remarkably similar. But our vision is very different to that of Plato and Nigel Farage. The Indigo answer of "we'll sort it out on the other side" misses the fact that for many voters, the order of preference is EEA > EU > Fortress UK.
I blameswallow the fact that he's only going to get 50% of what he wants. Because if he doesn't, he'll end up with 0%.
I think its unfair to class an end state with some limits on migration as "fortress UK". Is Canada "fortress Canada"??
Try opening an office in Canada or the US, the tell me. It's basically impossible unless you want to pay huge sus of money and make big and expensive employment commitments. Then there are the tax implications ...
You get none of that with the EU.
Having set up companies in both France and Germany I don't agree with that. In the UK you can set up a company with £1 share capital. In France and Germany it is considerably more and your duties as a director are a lot more onerous.
Mr. P, an unkind fellow might suggest Aaronovitch has form in believing arguments that turn out to be bogus, then greatly regretting it after the fact.
If you mean Iraq, I wouldn't describe his current view on that clusterf*ck as greatly regretful, more disingenuously self (and Blair) serving.
Some big changes in the Scottish constituency numbers by the looks of it.
Genuinely interested in the insight of our North British friends on those. Lots of people moving from Scotland, Lots of old registers? Lots of transient residents?
A cynic might suggest some got on for the Indy ref and have since got off...
Comments
Caveat, though, is that we need more polling. The polls may not be accurate but they show trends. We need more than a couple of polls showing a move to Remain.
I agree re: the social insecurity issue, too. When you live in a castle you don't care about the new elite. When you live in Islington, you are the new elite and care deeply about getting the right pesto and newspaper combination.
My (vaguely) landed pals are generally the most fun in the pub, on the hunting field and at dinner parties. I've had to cut short many a bawdy joke from OEs and OHs as we're heading up
garden paths whilst canvassing in suburbia.
I'm not even anti-immigration. Just see how much animosity and anger it causes. That ain't good for a functioning political system. Hardliners can manipulate it to push the working class to vote against their economic interests.
He wrote a memorable column claiming Syrian and other ME refugees would all be electrical engineers or similar.
He's not lived that one down yet.
http://m.huffpost.com/uk/entry/9304178?1456305367&ncid=tweetlnkushpmg00000067
It wasn't Alan Clark it was Michael Jopling
Is Grieve an expert on how European Law will interpret the deal, as per the comments of @Cyclefree yesterday?
And remember - this is a caucus, not a primary. They didn't tick the wrong box by accident; they stood up in a room to be counted and openly declared themselves loyal followers of a halfwit who withdrew from the race weeks ago.
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2016/02/23/jeremy-corbyn-would-win-a_n_9298784.html?ir=UK+Politics&ncid=newsletter-uk
I think we'll have plenty of people who are eurosceptic, have no love for the EU and would ideally like to leave, but will vote Remain in the ballot box out of fear.
The EU will interpret that as a wholesale recommitment to the whole project.
Mr. Eagles, perhaps not. But Gove is the closest thing to a Cameroon true believer. For him to go to Remain, he must feel very strongly about this. Grieve is nestled in his pro-EU comfort zone.
93.9% reporting.
That a Brexit vote might provoke a less than conciliatory response in other European capitals is taken by hardline sceptics as proof that the whole enterprise is an Anglophobe plot. The argument appears to be that friends who refuse to re-open a door once it has been slammed angrily in their faces are not true friends after all, which in turn just goes to show that slamming doors is the most effective way to deal with them; it’s the only language they understand.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/feb/24/outers-win-lose-eu-referendum
There were 44.7 million UK parliamentary electors in 2015, a fall of 1.3% from 2014 https://t.co/9A2xknGKse
If we remain in the EU we are looking more EU witht increasing integration and being consistently outvoted by the eurozone.
Those are important roles in English law, but very different to how the European Courts will interpret any deal.
Indeed I think the differences between English and Continental legal systems are the source of a lot of problems and misunderstandings about the EU.
http://www.redstate.com/leon_h_wolf/2016/02/24/trump-wins-nevada.-rubio-cruz-settle-nothing./
Brexit Taffy? really?
An insult of almighty proportions.
On a slightly more serious note, cancelling our exorbitant subs to the EU would fund about a 5p in the pound cut in corporation tax....
...or 2p off income tax...
...or some quite large cuts in beer duty (actually for £10bn you could more or less abolish beer, wine and spirits duties)...
...or build quite a few hospitals (about £500mn a pop)
...or upgrade a lot of railway lines (Network rail's planned investments in 2014-19 total about £25 billion I think so you could easily double that).
etc.
The individual constituencies are in the linked data section.
This is the data which will be used for the forthcoming boundary changes.
One thing Remain has to avoid? Accidentally inciting a populist revolt around Englishness #euref (from my talk 2day) https://t.co/WkfDQDOaiC
Electorate, UK: 44,722,004.
Just to clarify: The Boundary Commissions' quotas will be 74,769, and constituencies must have electorates between 71,031 and 78,507
https://twitter.com/hwallop/status/702386722609471490
Once we take back "sovereignty" (sic) and have to write new trade deals with everybody, are those civil servants going to do it for free?
Speaking of Englishness, or lack thereof, read in the Mail the other day the BBC are thinking of having separate news for Scotland at six. Seems crackers to me.
Hmmm. Not sure my maths is right. Our budget deficit is - give or take - £100bn. Reducing it by £10bn means going from 6% to 5.4%.
You get none of that with the EU.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3461103/The-torture-watching-husband-choose-beliefs-old-friend-PM-Daily-Mail-columnist-SARAH-VINE-s-intensely-personal-account-momentous-decision.html
Edit my admiration for Gove has gone up even more. I'll definitely be giving him my vote as next Tory leader.
Mr. P, you say 'have to' as if conducting our own trade agreements in our own best interest is some sort of laborious chore rather than a positive advantage.
And yes, we would probably pay a greatly reduced sum, and have greater self-control into the bargain. Sounds damned good to me. But then, I rather like the concept of self-government.
Always been tempted by the idea of a full cricket team myself.....
Bruges Group
Marks &Spencer have issued a statement saying that outgoing CEO Marc Bolland signed yesterday 's letter to the Times in a personal capacity
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1-H4eqc43aDRvF9V_VOjTQRh-rPmNifYJom-yaJ79Rpg/edit#gid=0
What is surprising is that the number is so tiny. A handful of people in some cases.
Whilst REMAIN also has a notable sprinkling of "interesting" characters nobody is any doubt that the PM leads REMAIN whilst LEAVE is led by nobody which allows their opponents to fill the void with lashings of Marmite in jars named Galloway, Farage, Sheridan and now Icke, the latter obviously intoning on the evils of EU lizards.
LEAVE require a vaguely personable heavyweight to front their campaign but presently such a search is proving fruitless and in the meantime the personable and ever so reasoned Prime Minister holds sway.
3.1? Is a meteor going to wipe out Trump and Cruz?
There is an additional problem with sub samples of UK polls now over and above the sub samples being 61 which limits even their entertainment value.
The polls are rebalancing to eliminate anti- Tory bias in the election. But the election polls in Scotland OVERESTMATED the Tory vote not the opposite. So the UK polls are rebalancing in the wrong direction.
That is why last weeks MORI full Scottish sample at 16 per cent Tory is a much better indication of trends. That suggests that allowing the narrative that the Tory objective was second place was very foolish as it is setting Davidson up for a hefty fall.
The debate should be about the issues. Both sides have plenty of clowns.
Oh, not that sort of heavyweight? Bugger....
Otherwise, reliability on the grid seems pretty good. Haas' nose fell off, but they're not the first team to which that's happened.
Genuinely interested in the insight of our North British friends on those. Lots of people moving from Scotland, Lots of old registers? Lots of transient residents?
Head of Europol on Hard Talk said that Britain gave them the most help in terrorism activity. So who needs who. https://t.co/KGr8MfOYn8
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/eu-referendum-economy-will-be-decisive-in-making-voters-minds-up-a6892096.html
The date of the UK referendum on EU membership is set, and the campaigning has begun. Prime Minister David Cameron sees European mobile co-operation as a key part of the case for voting Remain.
The implication of this was twofold: that the smooth co-operation that gave Europe a lead in digital mobile in the 1990s and early part of the century would be interrupted, and that the UK was therefore reliant on EU co-operation for mobile interoperability.
But he might need to check the history books first...
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2016/02/23/cameron_remain_o2_wtf/
However currently it's like a general election where the opposition is rudderless, completely unsure of what a win would mean and with multiple "leaders" and expect to lose the campaign anyway - somewhat like the Green Party ..