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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If the phone polls have got this right Dave’s more in tune with CON voters than party members and many MPs
It is a fact that all but one of the telephone polls carried out on the referendum since the General Election has shown more Conservative voters wanting to remain than leave.
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As has been pointed out on numerous occasions before UKIPCONHome is a far from proven approximation to the views of Conservative members......
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-34426237
I wonder how well their income tax take will hold up in the face of the dire news from the North Sea?
Despite results and polling indicating that Obama would defeat Clinton many punters remained unconvinced that he would win and their poor judgement was laid bare by many not understanding how the primaries and caucuses worked.
We are seeing the same with Trump.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35646004
Better off if UK left - Better if the UK stayed - no different - don’t know:
Levels of immigration into Britain 48% 13% 36% 4%
The strength of British democracy 39% 21% 37% 3%
Britain’s national security 28% 34% 34% 4%
The British economy 24% 46% 25% 6%
http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/daily-mail-political-poll-february-2016/
People vote on the economy. Things like British democracy, sovereignty and immigration can take a walk.
Leave need to hammer home economic risk of staying.
He said Mr Cameron was "absolutely right that this is a deal between 28 nations all of whom believe it", adding: "But the whole point about the European Court of Justice is that it stands above the nation states."
Mr Cameron has "not been misleading anyone", Mr Gove went on, but he added: "I do think it's important that people also realise that the European Court of Justice stands above every nation state, and ultimately it will decide on the basis of the treaties and this deal is not yet in the treaties."
Around two thirds (68%) of Britons say they are passionate about the issue of Britain’s membership of the EU. However, those likely to vote for “Remain” are more likely to say they are passionate than those supporting “Leave” (76% and 66% respectively).
You can't really ask that question in isolation - it should be in a field of similar topics to try to tease out which issues people are genuinely passionate about.....
"This is because voters are only likely to back leaving if a concern about issues such as identity, sovereignty and immigration – that is, the concern on which above all scepticism feeds – is coupled with the much less popular belief that Britain’s economy would be better off if it left the EU."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12171049/Revealed-Two-thirds-of-British-voters-are-Eurosceptics-but-they-arent-convinced-we-should-leave.html
Vote Leave: WHERE are you? WHAT are you doing?
Pull your bloody finger out. Now.
Vote REMAIN for the Economy - unless you want to LEAVE with Nigel & George......
If this brings Gove and Boris to the fore somewhat that just might be a good thing but the hour is already getting late and views of a largely indifferent public are getting fixed. The EU is far too boring to think about more than once for most. Once those views are fixed it is game over.
I am on the other side of this argument but the old cliché of Cameron being at his best when his back is against the wall has never been truer than it has been this week. He came back with a deal that was not so much criticised as ridiculed and he has completely dominated ever since.
It's why people like me stood at the general election, its little to do with immigration, GDP, NHS and other issues, its about a state of mind. Regardless of the outcome plenty of Conservatives are clearly viewing events through a different lens, that can only be positive.
I've seen 2.2 Million:
http://aiec.hu/ckfinder/userfiles/images/British-in-the-EU-European-Union.jpg
But I suspect that may include people who spend part of their time abroad, part in the UK.....
I agree, most will probably be REMAINians - as LEAVE's glorious lack of clarity about what will happen to 'borders' may lead them (not unreasonably) to conclude the worst.....
M&C Saatchis worked for the Tories so the betting must be on them
I'd like you to be clear here please: are you suggesting, even remotely, that if we leave the EU nation states will repatriate UK citizens?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12170831/Michael-Gove-brilliant-but-unloved-plays-the-game-of-thrones.html
http://www.europeanpolicy.org/en/european-policies/single-market.html
http://www.efta.int/eea/eu-programmes/application-finances/background
As a dedicated LEAVEr, are you suggesting that any of the Four Freedoms will be affected by LEAVEing the EU?
So far, the LEAVE campaigns have been studiously ambiguous.....
Look, people are people, they are generally very nice. This referndum is about an unnecessary and unwanted layer of bureaucracy, nothing else.
Cruz is clearly making Texas his firewall state, and with good reason. But the fact for the rest of the field is that even if Cruz wins there, as he should, he and Trump will split virtually all the 152 delegates between them, so if Trump does win it and Cruz withdraws, everyone else will be so far back that Trump will be out of sight.
If we Leave will nation states repatriate UK citizens?
what are the best explanations for the discrepancy between the results of telephone and internet polling on the question of the EU vote?
Thanks
An occasional visitor
You should get the LEAVE campaigns to clear that up.....
Note. Edited for spelling!
I'm not advocating LEAVE - you are.
And you cant tell me whether the Four Freedoms will be affected if we do LEAVE, or whether that's a desire of any of the LEAVE campaigns.
Which one is least untypical and capable of being relied on? Who knows? At the election the phones were marginally better but still poor.
It depends of what deal is negotiated after a LEAVE result, and now, know the next bit is tricky, so I will try and keep it simple for you.
WHAT HAPPENS AFTER THE REFERENDUM IS NOT UP TO THE CAMPAIGN, IT'S UP TO THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DAY.
Are we clear on this now, good, maybe we can stop the idiotic Nabavite question begging now and actually look at the issues ?
That said, I'd still make Hillary favourite in a Trump / Clinton contest but only about 60/40.
"Well you started it", simply doesn't wash.
Some people need to grow up.
blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexitvote/2016/02/22/polls-apart-why-we-need-to-treat-all-eu-referendum-polling-with-caution/
They are advocating 'taking control' - does that affect the Four Freedoms?
Surely if their campaign has won, the Government will want to be mindful of the prospectus upon which that victory was achieved.
So what is it?
Oh no, everyone is concerned it might cost them £2.50 a month off their pension, or they might have a couple extra forms to fill in once a year. The poverty of ambition is breathtaking. The UK doesn't reach for the stars any more, it reaches for the six pack of lager and turns of Big Brother.
As for the agencies themselves nearly all of whom are multi national they'll have their own interests so it's not beyond the bounds of possibility they might individually try to use it as a shop window in which case it'll be a lot of fun.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1vp6viBi5DA4avMgR2Y8lKrrAUqJp-0zL2LZB6iVD3uU/edit?pref=2&pli=1#gid=450656551
In: 151
Out: 139
ND: 40
Personally, I think Leave should commit to remaining in the EEA and single market. This means accepting that change will be modest and "control of our borders" won't be that different from the current situation.
But it also means that we can decide a lot more things for ourselves, that our economic access is still secure, that external investment in the UK still has that market access and, as Blackburn says, the layer of bureaucracy that is the European Parliament and the Commission is no longer our problem. I am clearly biased because this is what I want but I also believe that this is a sellable proposition that really should not frighten the horses too much.
Telephone sampling will get easier to reach groups and will, for example, over-represent public sector workers whilst struggling to contact tradesmen. They also up-weight their under 35 samples significantly.
The great value in polls is the direction of travel plus you can adjust your projections according to their usual pattern of error.
In fairness to YG and ICM - they were both about right with the SIndy ref at the four month pre-referendum stage.
I believe that the Common Market - Economic Community - European Union is on a one-way track to a United Europe by way of a Political Union. I'm looking at past trends.
Because of those pesky voters, they have to take occasional diversions but there is only one final destination.
If you're happy, I fully respect your decision. If not, why would you vote Remain? Do you expect the other 27 countries to say ... "What fools we've been, if only we'd seen the light earlier. We must change our destination immediately."
Or is it "A touch on the brakes around this curve while we let the passengers see the scenery and then on we go."
Can't get much sense out of their fanboys on here......
My niece is spending a year at a US university. So what?
I suspect despite the dicking about with Scottish golf courses, Trump has a soft spot for the UK - and would be well disposed to help us out if push comes to shove.
The most likely outcome of Leave is that the UK joins EFTA/EEA, in which case there's reciprocal free movement. I'm certainly not expecting forcible transfers of population.
The idea that there is entrepreneurship over HERE and crime over THERE needs to be knocked on the head. The slide into each other. It is an extraordinary fact that merely by posting on pb.com it proves that all an individual's business dealings are pure as the driven slush.
There's no such thing as an honest penny - which is what led Lenin to lead a revolution and then find he couldn't make it work.
Looks like REMAIN already have an agency:
http://www.campaignlive.co.uk/article/britain-stronger-europe-launch-adam-eve-ddb/1368428
@CarlottaVance I find studying what the various Leave factions are saying simply too depressing for words. A combination of fantasy and unreality swirling around concepts like sovereignty which mean far less to most people than last week's losing lottery ticket.
If say a quarter of Tory voters are sufficiently pissed off about the Tory Leave result that they peel off to the Kippers, then the Kippers are in the low 20's at the next GE. What happens then the Tories, almost certainly with a more sceptical leader, need a coalition partner, and the kippers now have 30ish seats.
He can't have convinced too many early deciders then !
Hopefully he can hold it, that will destroy Rubio's price a treat.
In this campaign there are two Leaves - the Tory one and the UKIP one. Only the first matters and, when it comes down to it, on a practical basis it will change our day-to-day lives only slightly. That will, of course, lead to many Leavers feeling massively betrayed. But FPTP pretty much guarantees it will make no difference to anything - except, perhaps, turnouts.
As Stephen Hawking said : "Look up at the stars, not down at your feet"