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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the eve of New Hampshire the Hillary campaign takes its biggest gamble: bringing in Bill to attack Bernie
So we are almost there in what has in past White House races been the contest that has proved to be the most crucial – the first full primary in the New England State of New Hampshire.
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Not in my sheet yet.
NY
Jeb Bush (R) 7%
Chris Christie (R) 11%
Ted Cruz (R) 16%
John Kasich (R) 4%
Marco Rubio (R) 16%
Donald Trump (R) 34%
Undecided 12%
Michigan Republican Presidential Primary IMP/Target Insyght Trump 35, Cruz 21, Rubio 21, Kasich 6, Carson 5, Bush 3, Christie 3, Fiorina 3
Arkansas Republican Presidential Primary Talk Business/Hendrix College Cruz 27, Trump 23, Rubio 23, Carson 11, Kasich 4, Fiorina 4, Bush 1, Christie 1
http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/feb/07/hillary-clinton-defends-madeleine-albright-women-female-voters
"The feminist writer Gloria Steinem apologized on Sunday for remarks about young women who support Bernie Sanders, not long after Hillary Clinton defended Madeleine Albright over her comment that there is “a special place in hell” for women who do not support Clinton."
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2016/02/08/why-the-feminist-appeal-isnt-working-for-clinton-in-new-hampshire/
Who said Yvette Cooper and Harriet Harman?
Is that a secret?
I bought it in the US because of a story that was on the dustcover. It described Bill giving a speech with his New Democrat credentials in NH shortly before the Primary. The audience were union and they were not particularly liking what they heard.
After the meeting he comes up to Joe but doesn't speak to him but to his little girl. "Amy," he said, "you haven't seen much of your dad recently and that is because he has been with me. But I want to tell you something. He talks about you all the time."
A genius of a politician. But gosh, doesn't he look old these days?
NC - Highpoint University
Jeb Bush (R) 5%
Ben Carson (R) 12%
Chris Christie (R) 3%
Ted Cruz (R) 18%
Carly Fiorina (R) 4%
Jim Gilmore (R) 1%
Mike Huckabee (R) 3%
John Kasich (R) 4%
Rand Paul (R) 2%
Marco Rubio (R) 20%
Rick Santorum (R) 1%
Donald Trump (R) 13%
Undecided 15%
"Vote for me because I'm a woman"
Looking past their gender though, do they deserve it?
Do they have the merits and the policies to be elected to the most senior positions?
Being a woman or a minority is not enough, you have to deserve it like any other person.
http://saintpetersblog.com/archives/252092
However all those are hypotheticals since a. they were before the last debate, b. before N.H. .
Edit.
You got the wrong numbers there Rod for N.Carolina, those are second choices, the real numbers are:
26 Trump
22 Cruz
20 Rubio
9 Carson
3 Bush
2 Huckabee/Kasich/Paul/Christie
1 Fiorina
http://www.highpoint.edu/src/files/2016/02/43memoA.pdf
@georgeeaton · 4m4 minutes ago
Emily Thornberry tells PLP meeting: "There's no point trying to shout me down".
Value?
She was a really strong candidate in 2008. Since then she has been Secretary of State as well as completing her term second term as a senator. But she doesn't have the gloss she had then.
Once again that appears, on the face of it, the school and police authorities colluding to play down/cover up a major incident, exacerbating tensions.
Anyway all about NH and SC now. If Rubio or Cruz poll outside the top three that will be problematic for them, Kasich looks good for a top three finish. SC should decide between Cruz and Trump, Trump needs to KO him there.
Right now if Trump wins N.H., Trump stays until at least Nevada regardless of S.Carolina.
But Cruz and Rubio need a win in S.Carolina or it's bust for them, Rubio especially.
If Cruz comes out only to have won Iowa (a little tainted victory there), then at best he can match Santorum by sweeping the bible belt (Nebraska ect) plus Texas.
If Rubio comes out having won none of the early states he's finished.
Essentially the state of the game is thus:.
For those who want to get rid of Rubio (Bush, Cruz, Christie, Carson, Trump, Kasich, aka everybody).
Rubio has to come bellow you in N.H ( 3rd or lower the better) and lose S.Carolina.
For those who want to get rid of Trump (everybody).
Trump has to lose N.H, or at least S.C. and Nevada.
For those who want to get rid of Cruz (everybody).
Cruz has to lose S.Carolina.
All the old industrial working-class northern towns are just full of every nationality under the sun. Something has to give. You can feel the tension sometimes. Older people can't believe the change in their communities and it's happened in such a short space of time.
"Vote Remain, or Kent gets it" is a nice bit of parody.
http://www.crewechronicle.co.uk/news/crewe-south-cheshire-news/police-called-fight-school-10839951
"Jason Fraser, principal of Sir William Stanier Community School, said: “During the lunchtime break yesterday, an altercation involving six pupils took place in the school playground. Staff responded quickly and effectively to manage the situation.
“Our school has a zero-tolerance approach to any behaviour that does not meet the high standards we expect, and we acted swiftly to exclude those involved, pending a full investigation.
“The safety and wellbeing of all students and staff, in and out of school, is always our utmost priority. As such, the decision was taken to involve the police as a precautionary measure. School then continued as normal for the rest of the afternoon and is open as usual today"
I wonder who has better reporters on the ground? And who relies on twittersphere hysteria...
Dan Hodges @DPJHodges 17m17 minutes ago
Channel 4 News can't be serious. None of the major parties has ever stuck to by-election spending limits.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z_JOGmXpe5I
Going up like a rocket and already the highest since 2013. There may be troubles ahead....
https://twitter.com/RogerJStoneJr/status/696137987906793473
In this case, I was neither criticising nor praising, merely explaining my understanding of how by-election spending limits are easy to get round.
The swing centre/centre-right middle-class electorate will be convinced by non-migrant arguments IMHO.
That means Robert Smithson, DavidL and Cyclefree.
Brave move to drag a sleaze bag into a her campaign who was never far from a real estate scandal - or a good cigar.
Apparently the Tories were desperate to stop Farage, Farage was desperate to win. Which you know is obviously true.
Technically a local battle, but obviously the importance of winning was for the nationl narrative - this wasn't any old contest. Effectively they were both fighting a national campaign on the streets of Kent - not surprising they spent like it.
"Nice county you got there, be a shame if anything happened to it" was a good one too
The substance of that article seems to back the Breibart article, with both the headmaster and the police playing it down.
I'd be seriously amazed if it happened though.
This is the throw enough shit around and some of it will stick approach.
"Channel 4 News has obtained evidence of tens of thousands of pounds of spending by the Conservatives during key by-election campaigns which appear not to have been declared.
Hundreds of pages of receipts obtained by this programme seem to show undeclared expenditure by the party in three crucial parliamentary by-election campaigns in 2014.
The documents appear to reveal a pattern of undisclosed spending and link directly to Conservative HQ and senior figures within the party."
"If all the receipts had been declared, the party would appear to have flouted spending limits in all three by-elections in Newark, Clacton, and Rochester & Strood during 2014. "
"Some rooms were booked under the name "Mr Conservatives"."
Apparently equals white man's race death at the hands of the Jezlamists
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2003/feb/04/foreignpolicy.uk
Perhaps the French got something they wanted in one of the other areas, and the problem was not as bad or immediate back then.
Most precincts will close one hour earlier, so by the time the exit poll comes out we will have around 10% of the results in already.
If you like, there are some midnight villages that vote on midnight ET on polling day and publish their results early, which is 8 AM UTC tomorrow.
2AM UTC - first result 3AM exit poll?
Making it tough to reach England helps Calais as much if not more than it helps the UK.
There are only two parties that can bring an end to the treaty, The French Government and the British Government. Neither have any intention of doing so. Cameron is just being incredibly stupid.
This is my quandary.
Why I find it hard to see past Trump for SC, regardless of NH. Crush Cruz then the New Yorker becomes the standard bearer for the South. Rubio is relying on second in NH and then first in SC, I don't see it.
Anyway lets see what happens in NH, although I can't see the polls being that wrong for Trump not to win NH.
Still, v naughty. Patients with mental problems are very vulnerable, more so than patients with purely physical problems.
Some small villages close just after 8AM on Tuesday London time and some at 3 AM Wednesday London time.
Exit polls are allowed to be published only after the last precinct closes at 3 AM Wednesday London time.
OK ?
This is not an ethnic or class issue, IMO.
It just seems so hard to get people in charge - of anything, frankly - to accept that they have a problem, one bigger than they probably think, that the last bloody thing anyone wants to hear are the words "bad apples", "take this seriously", "lessons learned" or "policies/procedures" etc - let alone in that special condescending tone learnt on some piss-awful media strategy training course - and that the one thing, the ONLY thing people want to hear are the words: "Yes, you're right this is bad. Bloody awful in fact. We'll try and put it right. We're sorry." And then, actually to do something about it.
See Cyclefree's Guide to the Nine Stages of A Crisis.
Are we expecting last minute polls tonight?