Rand Paul, Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum all dropping out. Great news for Ted Cruz to mop up tea party and evangelical support.
When did Santorum drop out ?
Boo, I wanted to do a Santorum surge thread.
You can do a Santorum Dump thread instead
I like your thinking.
If Santorum is not on offer perhaps people will look again at Bush?
Heh, I am indeed. I'm asking a few bookies to price up the odds of a brokered convention for a thread this Sunday.
Question is, how do you get to a brokered convention? You really need at least three candidates to be running roughly level after Super Tuesday and then for a good while afterwards. That's possible but unlikely. The primary campaign has all the dynamics of an unstable equilibrium, where those furthest from the average position accelerate fastest, either towards the nomination or out of contention.
And if there are three candidates who all fail to reach the necessary delegate total by June, how then do you reach a position where *none* of them becomes the nominee? The days of deadlocked conventions were pre-primaries, when candidates didn't have millions of votes in their back pocket as mandates.
I admit it is unlikely, but I reckon if Trump is one of the three, he won't go quietly if he's leading the delegate count, but not over the line. Or even if he's in second place.
Surely all you need for a brokered convention is for both 1. none of the candidates to have a majority; and 2. the absence of a deal between two or more of the candidates with delegates (including candidates out of the race at that point) to push one of the candidates across the delegate count finishing line.
That is very easy to envisage in this race if Cruz (states with large evangelical numbers), Trump (the other very red states) and Rubio (purple and blue states) all stack up useful numbers of delegates.
Don't forget also that, under the new rules, 1050 of the 2470 GOP delegates are allocated on a proportional basis, so a 400/350/300 split come 14 March is not at all hard to envisage. That would give the 'losers' a minimum of 650 of the 1236 delegates they'd need to prevent the frontrunner from crossing the line.
@politicshome: Matthew d'Ancona heads today's Five at Five: 'EU gamble can turn David Cameron from a good PM to one of the greats' https://t.co/lTl5Z6D3d5
'Once Labour get back in - as they undoubtedly will one day - it all goes out of the window again. Richard likes to keep blaming Blair and Brown for the poor negotiating position Cameron found himself in. But thru were only able to do the damage they did because successive Tory governments before them fined up so comprehensively to the EU project.'
Yes, and you can be sure Labour won't offer a referendum when they happily sign the UK up to even more integration.
I'll repeat what I said earlier - this referendum is the one chance we are going to get to break the cycle of abuse the political class have inflicted on the voters.
Anyone thinking they can vote Remain now and maybe get another chance a year or three down the line if the EU starts playing silly b*ggers is kidding themselves.
We have got this referendum largely by chance and can't duck the opportunity it gives.
@politicshome: Matthew d'Ancona heads today's Five at Five: 'EU gamble can turn David Cameron from a good PM to one of the greats' https://t.co/lTl5Z6D3d5
Cameron's chief cheerleader cheers for Cameron shocker. The alternative it gets found out to be flim flam within the next year or two and Cameron becomes the heir to Blair in ways he would rather not.
Rand Paul, Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum all dropping out. Great news for Ted Cruz to mop up tea party and evangelical support.
When did Santorum drop out ?
Boo, I wanted to do a Santorum surge thread.
You can do a Santorum Dump thread instead
I like your thinking.
If Santorum is not on offer perhaps people will look again at Bush?
Heh, I am indeed. I'm asking a few bookies to price up the odds of a brokered convention for a thread this Sunday.
Question is, how do you get to a brokered convention? You really need at least three candidates to be running roughly level after Super Tuesday and then for a good while afterwards. That's possible but unlikely. The primary campaign has all the dynamics of an unstable equilibrium, where those furthest from the average position accelerate fastest, either towards the nomination or out of contention.
And if there are three candidates who all fail to reach the necessary delegate total by June, how then do you reach a position where *none* of them becomes the nominee? The days of deadlocked conventions were pre-primaries, when candidates didn't have millions of votes in their back pocket as mandates.
Cruz takes Texas and some southern states, Trump scores New Hampshire, South Carolina and some more, Rubio takes some.
And they pick Bush ?!
Now that would be political suicide for the GOP on a scale of Labour.
Rand Paul, Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum all dropping out. Great news for Ted Cruz to mop up tea party and evangelical support.
When did Santorum drop out ?
Boo, I wanted to do a Santorum surge thread.
You can do a Santorum Dump thread instead
I like your thinking.
If Santorum is not on offer perhaps people will look again at Bush?
Heh, I am indeed. I'm asking a few bookies to price up the odds of a brokered convention for a thread this Sunday.
ce.
Surely all you need for a brokered convention is for both 1. none of the candidates to have a majority; and 2. the absence of a deal between two or more of the candidates with delegates (including candidates out of the race at that point) to push one of the candidates across the delegate count finishing line.
That is very easy to envisage in this race if Cruz (states with large evangelical numbers), Trump (the other very red states) and Rubio (purple and blue states) all stack up useful numbers of delegates.
Don't forget also that, under the new rules, 1050 of the 2470 GOP delegates are allocated on a proportional basis, so a 400/350/300 split come 14 March is not at all hard to envisage. That would give the 'losers' a minimum of 650 of the 1236 delegates they'd need to prevent the frontrunner from crossing the line.
Thanks, this could get very messy. Trump doesn't seem likely to put the party first, ahead of himself, judging by his tweets today, Trump would sooner trap his manhood the in the door, than make way for Cruz.
Accelerating from Cape Canaveral at 1G (+ & minus) - how long would it take to touch down on the moon.
Answer: 3 1/2 hours.
Of course the problem is having sufficiently powerful rocket to accelerate at 1G for that length of time.
Can I be a pedant. If an astronaut was on the launch pad at cape Canaveral he'd already be experiencing 1g just by sitting there. The moment the rocket starts he's experiencing more than 1g. A lot more. And even in low earth orbit, experiencing zero G, he'd still be accelerating at 1g (minus a tiny amount only 60 miles up). The earth's gravitational field strength is significantly more than zero at the distance of the moon. That's why it stays there.
I hear Sandra Rivett's son is claiming he can prove Lucan lived on for years and, interestingly, was not necessarily his mother's killer...
The "hitman theory" has always intrigued me.
My wife knows an awful lot about the Lucan story, from a script she wrote.
Did you know, for example, that Lucan had a pathological fear of blood? The idea of him bludgeoning someone to death has to overcome that little detail...
He was certainly surrounded by people who could have got him out the country safely - and hidden him for decades - if they had decided to look after one of their own.
Accelerating from Cape Canaveral at 1G (+ & minus) - how long would it take to touch down on the moon.
Answer: 3 1/2 hours.
Of course the problem is having sufficiently powerful rocket to accelerate at 1G for that length of time.
What have you assumed for deceleration to actually land on the moon?
This thread reminds me of the good old days when we were worried about the 'pink mist' problem of how to launch Ed Balls from Morris Dancer's space cannon without G forces doing what the problem says on the tin. We decided to deep freeze the Balls projectile in advance of pushing the big red button. Fortunately the wise electorate of Normanton solved our problem for us by other means.
I am now beginning to understand just how tedious the Scottish independence debates we had on here were for people who were not that interested in them.
LOL. PB for the next few months/years will be EU/Corbyn central. I had a feeling the latest news wasn't going to go down well among Conservatives/right-wingers.
I am now beginning to understand just how tedious the Scottish independence debates we had on here were for people who were not that interested in them.
LOL. PB for the next few months/years will be EU/Corbyn central. I had a feeling the latest news wasn't going to go down well among Conservatives/right-wingers.
Is a pity I've done my AV thread.
I'll try and do another AV thread in the next few months to keep up the excitement levels
I am now beginning to understand just how tedious the Scottish independence debates we had on here were for people who were not that interested in them.
LOL. PB for the next few months/years will be EU/Corbyn central. I had a feeling the latest news wasn't going to go down well among Conservatives/right-wingers.
Well I guess it's down to Labour to support the corporatists
Rand Paul, Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum all dropping out. Great news for Ted Cruz to mop up tea party and evangelical support.
When did Santorum drop out ?
Boo, I wanted to do a Santorum surge thread.
You can do a Santorum Dump thread instead
I like your thinking.
If Santorum is not on offer perhaps people will look again at Bush?
Heh, I am indeed. I'm asking a few bookies to price up the odds of a brokered convention for a thread this Sunday.
s.
Cruz takes Texas and some southern states, Trump scores New Hampshire, South Carolina and some more, Rubio takes some.
And they pick Bush ?!
Now that would be political suicide for the GOP on a scale of Labour.
Would the fact Jeb's father and brother were former Presidents help him in a brokered convention?
I doubt it. Certainly, the family is owed lots of favours by many in the GOP. But think of the optics. Jeb flares out spectacularly, and then is gifted an undeserved billing because of Daddy and Bro? He would be mauled in the Dem attack ads, and quite rightly.
This is America. You are expected to make it by your own rights. Which is why the Donald rarely admits he started off with a fortune.
Rand Paul, Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum all dropping out. Great news for Ted Cruz to mop up tea party and evangelical support.
When did Santorum drop out ?
Boo, I wanted to do a Santorum surge thread.
You can do a Santorum Dump thread instead
I like your thinking.
If Santorum is not on offer perhaps people will look again at Bush?
Heh, I am indeed. I'm asking a few bookies to price up the odds of a brokered convention for a thread this Sunday.
s.
Cruz takes Texas and some southern states, Trump scores New Hampshire, South Carolina and some more, Rubio takes some.
And they pick Bush ?!
Now that would be political suicide for the GOP on a scale of Labour.
Would the fact Jeb's father and brother were former Presidents help him in a brokered convention?
I doubt it. Certainly, the family is owed lots of favours by many in the GOP. But think of the optics. Jeb flares out spectacularly, and then is gifted an undeserved billing because of Daddy and Bro? He would be mauled in the Dem attack ads, and quite rightly.
This is America. You are expected to make it by your own rights. Which is why the Donald rarely admits he started off with a fortune.
Would those attacks be neutered if Hillary Clinton, wife of the former President, is the Dem nominee?
PS Apologies if I don't reply straight away, I have dinner with a parole officer to get ready for.
Rand Paul, Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum all dropping out. Great news for Ted Cruz to mop up tea party and evangelical support.
When did Santorum drop out ?
Boo, I wanted to do a Santorum surge thread.
You can do a Santorum Dump thread instead
I like your thinking.
If Santorum is not on offer perhaps people will look again at Bush?
Heh, I am indeed. I'm asking a few bookies to price up the odds of a brokered convention for a thread this Sunday.
s.
Cruz takes Texas and some southern states, Trump scores New Hampshire, South Carolina and some more, Rubio takes some.
And they pick Bush ?!
Now that would be political suicide for the GOP on a scale of Labour.
Would the fact Jeb's father and brother were former Presidents help him in a brokered convention?
I doubt it. Certainly, the family is owed lots of favours by many in the GOP. But think of the optics. Jeb flares out spectacularly, and then is gifted an undeserved billing because of Daddy and Bro? He would be mauled in the Dem attack ads, and quite rightly.
This is America. You are expected to make it by your own rights. Which is why the Donald rarely admits he started off with a fortune.
Would those attacks be neutered if Hillary Clinton, wife of the former President, is the Dem nominee?
PS Apologies if I don't reply straight away, I have dinner with a parole officer to get ready for.
Apologies for my intermittent posting too - trying to get work done and watch dogs and watch the cricket. I tend to agree with those who say that multitasking is a euphemism for not doing anything.
Hillary would at least be the candidate for the Dems having won fair and square. So I think it would not matter in the slightest that the criticism was coming from her.
I hear Sandra Rivett's son is claiming he can prove Lucan lived on for years and, interestingly, was not necessarily his mother's killer...
The "hitman theory" has always intrigued me.
My wife knows an awful lot about the Lucan story, from a script she wrote.
Did you know, for example, that Lucan had a pathological fear of blood? The idea of him bludgeoning someone to death has to overcome that little detail...
He was certainly surrounded by people who could have got him out the country safely - and hidden him for decades - if they had decided to look after one of their own.
Would he have had the balls to even attempt the job himself? Could he have mistaken his own wife, even in the dark? Why did he attempt to help his wife, rather than finish her off?
Rand Paul, Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum all dropping out. Great news for Ted Cruz to mop up tea party and evangelical support.
When did Santorum drop out ?
Boo, I wanted to do a Santorum surge thread.
You can do a Santorum Dump thread instead
I like your thinking.
If Santorum is not on offer perhaps people will look again at Bush?
Heh, I am indeed. I'm asking a few bookies to price up the odds of a brokered convention for a thread this Sunday.
s.
Cruz takes Texas and some southern states, Trump scores New Hampshire, South Carolina and some more, Rubio takes some.
And they pick Bush ?!
Now that would be political suicide for the GOP on a scale of Labour.
Would the fact Jeb's father and brother were former Presidents help him in a brokered convention?
I doubt it. Certainly, the family is owed lots of favours by many in the GOP. But think of the optics. Jeb flares out spectacularly, and then is gifted an undeserved billing because of Daddy and Bro? He would be mauled in the Dem attack ads, and quite rightly.
This is America. You are expected to make it by your own rights. Which is why the Donald rarely admits he started off with a fortune.
Would those attacks be neutered if Hillary Clinton, wife of the former President, is the Dem nominee?
PS Apologies if I don't reply straight away, I have dinner with a parole officer to get ready for.
Apologies for my intermittent posting too - trying to get work done and watch dogs and watch the cricket. I tend to agree with those who say that multitasking is a euphemism for not doing anything.
Hillary would at least be the candidate for the Dems having won fair and square. So I think it would not matter in the slightest that the criticism was coming from her.
Surely Hillary would be delighted to face Jeb Bush after he's got the mandate of almost noone in the GOP electorate
I am now beginning to understand just how tedious the Scottish independence debates we had on here were for people who were not that interested in them.
LOL. PB for the next few months/years will be EU/Corbyn central. I had a feeling the latest news wasn't going to go down well among Conservatives/right-wingers.
I'm EUed out after 24 hours. Still, it's something to bet on.
@TheScreamingEagles The day I see your AV thread up on PB is the day hell freezes over! It's literally something that's always in the pipeline but never appears....
I am now beginning to understand just how tedious the Scottish independence debates we had on here were for people who were not that interested in them.
LOL. PB for the next few months/years will be EU/Corbyn central. I had a feeling the latest news wasn't going to go down well among Conservatives/right-wingers.
Well I guess it's down to Labour to support the corporatists
Touche. Though I don't think those within the Labour party think they're supporting corporatists. As for the Left in general, well I get the feeling that they're pretty anti-EU right now.
Rand Paul, Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum all dropping out. Great news for Ted Cruz to mop up tea party and evangelical support.
When did Santorum drop out ?
Boo, I wanted to do a Santorum surge thread.
You can do a Santorum Dump thread instead
I like your thinking.
If Santorum is not on offer perhaps people will look again at Bush?
Heh, I am indeed. I'm asking a few bookies to price up the odds of a brokered convention for a thread this Sunday.
Question is, how do you get to a brokered convention? You really need at least three candidates to be running roughly level after Super Tuesday and then for a good while afterwards. That's possible but unlikely. The primary campaign has all the dynamics of an unstable equilibrium, where those furthest from the average position accelerate fastest, either towards the nomination or out of contention.
And if there are three candidates who all fail to reach the necessary delegate total by June, how then do you reach a position where *none* of them becomes the nominee? The days of deadlocked conventions were pre-primaries, when candidates didn't have millions of votes in their back pocket as mandates.
Cruz takes Texas and some southern states, Trump scores New Hampshire, South Carolina and some more, Rubio takes some.
And they pick Bush ?!
A race where no candidate wins half the delegates I can just about see, though I think it's highly unlikely: usually once someone gets on a roll, the momentum keeps pushing them on. But yes, it's the idea of the convention then picking someone who was knocked out months before that I simply don't think is realistic. We're talking well into three figures for that scenario.
I hear Sandra Rivett's son is claiming he can prove Lucan lived on for years and, interestingly, was not necessarily his mother's killer...
The "hitman theory" has always intrigued me.
My wife knows an awful lot about the Lucan story, from a script she wrote.
Did you know, for example, that Lucan had a pathological fear of blood? The idea of him bludgeoning someone to death has to overcome that little detail...
He was certainly surrounded by people who could have got him out the country safely - and hidden him for decades - if they had decided to look after one of their own.
Would he have had the balls to even attempt the job himself? Could he have mistaken his own wife, even in the dark? Why did he attempt to help his wife, rather than finish her off?
I think it's unlikely he did it. The question is why he decided to disappear.
I am now beginning to understand just how tedious the Scottish independence debates we had on here were for people who were not that interested in them.
LOL. PB for the next few months/years will be EU/Corbyn central. I had a feeling the latest news wasn't going to go down well among Conservatives/right-wingers.
I'm EUed out after 24 hours. Still, it's something to bet on.
Tbh I'm EUed out generally. It's a topic that I just cannot get passionate about at all.
@TheScreamingEagles The day I see your AV thread up on PB is the day hell freezes over! It's literally something that's always in the pipeline but never appears....
I am now beginning to understand just how tedious the Scottish independence debates we had on here were for people who were not that interested in them.
LOL. PB for the next few months/years will be EU/Corbyn central. I had a feeling the latest news wasn't going to go down well among Conservatives/right-wingers.
Well I guess it's down to Labour to support the corporatists
Touche. Though I don't think those within the Labour party think they're supporting corporatists. As for the Left in general, well I get the feeling that they're pretty anti-EU right now.
They need to read their Guardian a bit more closely
There were 30,000 lobbyists in Brussels two years ago, anyone think that number will have got smaller ? For comparison that's roughly double the number of lobbyists in Washington DC.
I hear Sandra Rivett's son is claiming he can prove Lucan lived on for years and, interestingly, was not necessarily his mother's killer...
The "hitman theory" has always intrigued me.
My wife knows an awful lot about the Lucan story, from a script she wrote.
Did you know, for example, that Lucan had a pathological fear of blood? The idea of him bludgeoning someone to death has to overcome that little detail...
He was certainly surrounded by people who could have got him out the country safely - and hidden him for decades - if they had decided to look after one of their own.
Would he have had the balls to even attempt the job himself? Could he have mistaken his own wife, even in the dark? Why did he attempt to help his wife, rather than finish her off?
Nothing makes sense.
My wife is firmly of the view it was an insurance job (on the family silver) that went badly wrong - because Lucan hired a psycho to do it. Talk to coppers in the know, and they even suggest a name....
@TheScreamingEagles The day I see your AV thread up on PB is the day hell freezes over! It's literally something that's always in the pipeline but never appears....
The trouble with the thread is that even though it's very popular it's no-one's first choice.
D'Ancona's claim that Tusk has met Cameron half way is laughable when we haven't got anything at all on protection from Eurozone caucusing together. And that was after Cameron jettisoned most of his demands before he started.
I hear Sandra Rivett's son is claiming he can prove Lucan lived on for years and, interestingly, was not necessarily his mother's killer...
The "hitman theory" has always intrigued me.
My wife knows an awful lot about the Lucan story, from a script she wrote.
Did you know, for example, that Lucan had a pathological fear of blood? The idea of him bludgeoning someone to death has to overcome that little detail...
He was certainly surrounded by people who could have got him out the country safely - and hidden him for decades - if they had decided to look after one of their own.
Would he have had the balls to even attempt the job himself? Could he have mistaken his own wife, even in the dark? Why did he attempt to help his wife, rather than finish her off?
I think it's unlikely he did it. The question is why he decided to disappear.
Because he was behind it? Just as guilty in the eyes of the law.
Or because, just maybe, he had nothing to do with it, and panicked, then realised no-one would believe him?
I am now beginning to understand just how tedious the Scottish independence debates we had on here were for people who were not that interested in them.
LOL. PB for the next few months/years will be EU/Corbyn central. I had a feeling the latest news wasn't going to go down well among Conservatives/right-wingers.
I'm EUed out after 24 hours. Still, it's something to bet on.
Good evening all. For my part, I've said my piece on the EU. It's all in the lap of the Gods now. For those with less emotional investment, I'll join you in wishing for a June referendum.
I am now beginning to understand just how tedious the Scottish independence debates we had on here were for people who were not that interested in them.
LOL. PB for the next few months/years will be EU/Corbyn central. I had a feeling the latest news wasn't going to go down well among Conservatives/right-wingers.
I'm EUed out after 24 hours. Still, it's something to bet on.
Tbh I'm EUed out generally. It's a topic that I just cannot get passionate about at all.
I know what you mean. And people want to spin this out until the autumn. We shouldn't even do such things to terror suspects.
I am now beginning to understand just how tedious the Scottish independence debates we had on here were for people who were not that interested in them.
LOL. PB for the next few months/years will be EU/Corbyn central. I had a feeling the latest news wasn't going to go down well among Conservatives/right-wingers.
I'm EUed out after 24 hours. Still, it's something to bet on.
Tbh I'm EUed out generally. It's a topic that I just cannot get passionate about at all.
I can't remember the last time I was so depressed about my country's future. I've voted for the winning side (if you include Lib Dems in 2010) every election I've voted in. Now people seem to be blind to the danger.
Rand Paul, Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum all dropping out. Great news for Ted Cruz to mop up tea party and evangelical support.
When did Santorum drop out ?
Boo, I wanted to do a Santorum surge thread.
You can do a Santorum Dump thread instead
I like your thinking.
If Santorum is not on offer perhaps people will look again at Bush?
Heh, I am indeed. I'm asking a few bookies to price up the odds of a brokered convention for a thread this Sunday.
Question is, how do you get to a brokered convention? You really need at least three candidates to be running roughly level after Super Tuesday and then for a good while afterwards. That's possible but unlikely. The primary campaign has all the dynamics of an unstable equilibrium, where those furthest from the average position accelerate fastest, either towards the nomination or out of contention.
And if there are three candidates who all fail to reach the necessary delegate total by June, how then do you reach a position where *none* of them becomes the nominee? The days of deadlocked conventions were pre-primaries, when candidates didn't have millions of votes in their back pocket as mandates.
I admit it is unlikely, but I reckon if Trump is one of the three, he won't go quietly if he's leading the delegate count, but not over the line. Or even if he's in second place.
Which is fine - I'd agree with that. But surely it would then be incumbent on one of the two leading the race to cut a deal with the third and minor candidates? Wouldn't a Cruz-Rubio ticket be the most likely outcome if Trump plays silly (assuming Cruz finishes second - but the other scenarios write themselves).
@TheScreamingEagles The day I see your AV thread up on PB is the day hell freezes over! It's literally something that's always in the pipeline but never appears....
I am now beginning to understand just how tedious the Scottish independence debates we had on here were for people who were not that interested in them.
LOL. PB for the next few months/years will be EU/Corbyn central. I had a feeling the latest news wasn't going to go down well among Conservatives/right-wingers.
Well I guess it's down to Labour to support the corporatists
Touche. Though I don't think those within the Labour party think they're supporting corporatists. As for the Left in general, well I get the feeling that they're pretty anti-EU right now.
Which is fine - I'd agree with that. But surely it would then be incumbent on one of the two leading the race to cut a deal with the third and minor candidates? Wouldn't a Cruz-Rubio ticket be the most likely outcome if Trump plays silly (assuming Cruz finishes second - but the other scenarios write themselves).
I only managed to watch a few minutes of JC's reply to the PM's EU statement but there were already lots of empty seats on the Labour benches. Whatever the reason was, don't they realise how bad this must look to the public?
I'm not sure if this was JC's worse PMQs but I suspect those that thought he was a "refreshing change" are now getting ever so slightly bored.
Which is fine - I'd agree with that. But surely it would then be incumbent on one of the two leading the race to cut a deal with the third and minor candidates? Wouldn't a Cruz-Rubio ticket be the most likely outcome if Trump plays silly (assuming Cruz finishes second - but the other scenarios write themselves).
@TheScreamingEagles The day I see your AV thread up on PB is the day hell freezes over! It's literally something that's always in the pipeline but never appears....
The trouble with the thread is that even though it's very popular it's no-one's first choice.
That's democracy for you. Everybody gets what nobody wants.
There were 30,000 lobbyists in Brussels two years ago, anyone think that number will have got smaller ? For comparison that's roughly double the number of lobbyists in Washington DC.
Wow. That's depressing. That there are more lobbyists there than in Washington is startling.
@Wanderer LOL I hope we have a June referendum. Let's get it over and done with.
@TheScreamingEagles The day I see your AV thread up on PB is the day hell freezes over! It's literally something that's always in the pipeline but never appears....
The trouble with the thread is that even though it's very popular it's no-one's first choice.
Rand Paul, Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum all dropping out. Great news for Ted Cruz to mop up tea party and evangelical support.
When did Santorum drop out ?
Boo, I wanted to do a Santorum surge thread.
You can do a Santorum Dump thread instead
I like your thinking.
If Santorum is not on offer perhaps people will look again at Bush?
Heh, I am indeed. I'm asking a few bookies to price up the odds of a brokered convention for a thread this Sunday.
Question is, how do you get to a brokered convention? You really need at least three candidates to be running roughly level after Super Tuesday and then for a good while afterwards. That's possible but unlikely. The primary campaign has all the dynamics of an unstable equilibrium, where those furthest from the average position accelerate fastest, either towards the nomination or out of contention.
And if there are three candidates who all fail to reach the necessary delegate total by June, how then do you reach a position where *none* of them becomes the nominee? The days of deadlocked conventions were pre-primaries, when candidates didn't have millions of votes in their back pocket as mandates.
I admit it is unlikely, but I reckon if Trump is one of the three, he won't go quietly if he's leading the delegate count, but not over the line. Or even if he's in second place.
Which is fine - I'd agree with that. But surely it would then be incumbent on one of the two leading the race to cut a deal with the third and minor candidates? Wouldn't a Cruz-Rubio ticket be the most likely outcome if Trump plays silly (assuming Cruz finishes second - but the other scenarios write themselves).
I don't see anyone inviting Cruz onto their ticket. He has made way too many enemies. The best he could hope for in a brokered deal is to name his rep on the bottom side of the ticket - or to set preconditions for who that rep might be.
If Rubio gets it through back room shenanigans at a brokered Convention, I could see Nikki Haley being a Veep that everyone could agree to. Woman. Check. Conservative/Tea Party. Check. Minority. Check. Electable. Check. Attractive. Check. Eloquent. Check.
I could see Nikki Haley being a Veep that everyone could agree to. Woman. Check. Conservative/Tea Party. Check. Minority. Check. Electable. Check. Attractive. Check. Eloquent. Check.
Catching up on the day, watching the Commons it's clear that Leave need to get their act together and quickly - Cameron is a supreme politician and got through unscathed.
Sorry to hear about Lord Lucan's death, hope his family can quickly come to terms with their sad loss.
I love the way candidates say "suspend" in these cases.
Do you know why they do this? It's not just a polite phrase.
"Suspend" has no legal meaning. Campaigns still have debts, salaries, rents to pay etc and they can still raise campaign money to pay those even when they seem to have, on the face of it, quit.
There can be Federal matching funds to still be had too although that's not a common campaign route these days.
On the upside, I've never seen a pb-er demolished so well, as you have just Deconstructed Nabavi. A silly and diminished person: waste no more of your time on him.
I've often said that I wouldn't want to be on the wrong side of the table from @Cyclefree.
I only managed to watch a few minutes of JC's reply to the PM's EU statement but there were already lots of empty seats on the Labour benches. Whatever the reason was, don't they realise how bad this must look to the public?
I'm not sure if this was JC's worse PMQs but I suspect those that thought he was a "refreshing change" are now getting ever so slightly bored.
They want it to look bad. 90% would like Corbyn to go as soon as possible.
I may be able to shed a little bit of light on the "objective justification" brouhaha. Just a little.
It's a phrase much used in the concept of EU discrimination legislation (in, for example, employment law to justify age discrimination or indirect sex discrimination) and seems to be used by analogy here. In order to demonstrate an objective justification, one must first show a legitimate aim. The legitimate aim cannot normally be related to cost alone and cannot itself be discriminatory. So the fact that a particular course of action would otherwise be very expensive would not by itself permit discrimination.
Even if you can show a legitimate aim, you need also to show that the means being adopted are proportionate. So if the impact on the person being discriminated against is disproportionate, it is unlawful. This is usually treated quite stringently against the person seeking to discriminate also.
Set against that, where two people are not in relevantly the same position, they can be treated differently and that isn't discrimination at all. Since most differences between Eurozone countries and non-Eurozone countries would come in that category, I'm not at all sure what the provision is trying to deal with.
It is one of the bits of what's been announced that has more significance than has generally been appreciated, but the significance remains murky. Its significance has no doubt been considered at length behind closed doors, but more light would be welcome.
I am now beginning to understand just how tedious the Scottish independence debates we had on here were for people who were not that interested in them.
LOL. PB for the next few months/years will be EU/Corbyn central. I had a feeling the latest news wasn't going to go down well among Conservatives/right-wingers.
I'm EUed out after 24 hours. Still, it's something to bet on.
Tbh I'm EUed out generally. It's a topic that I just cannot get passionate about at all.
Simples!
LEAVE = British and proud! REMAIN = Traitor Pig-Dogs!
I love the way candidates say "suspend" in these cases.
Do you know why they do this? It's not just a polite phrase.
"Suspend" has no legal meaning. Campaigns still have debts, salaries, rents to pay etc and they can still raise campaign money to pay those even when they seem to have, on the face of it, quit.
There can be Federal matching funds to still be had too although that's not a common campaign route these days.
I wouldn't trust opinion polls on predicting the correct result. Yes Sanders and Trump start with a 20 and 30 point lead in N.H. and it's only 6 days to go, but I'm sticking with the theory that media and momentum matter more than opinion polls.
Although I'm sure that Sanders will win N.H. because he's a neighbour, I'm not sure that Trump will since Iowa hasn't filtered in yet and there is yet another GOP debate on Saturday.
There is the extra obstacle that voting takes place on a working day, so it will be dominated by older people. And a severe snowstorm forecasted for that day. I think betting against opinion polls is the only sure thing at this point.
Sunil J. Prasannan is calling for a total and complete shut-down of AV threads entering PB.com, until our forum's representatives can figure out what the hell is going on!
Dave's migrant benefit limits have been seriously talked up.
Effectively, this is the biggest confidence trick of them all. The so-called "renegotiations" over the ability of the UK to suspend certain benefit payments to migrant workers are actually nothing of the sort. The UK, in a roundabout way, is simply invoking the pre-existing safeguard measures set out in Articles 112-3 of the EEA Agreement.
I may be able to shed a little bit of light on the "objective justification" brouhaha. Just a little.
It's a phrase much used in the concept of EU discrimination legislation (in, for example, employment law to justify age discrimination or indirect sex discrimination) and seems to be used by analogy here. In order to demonstrate an objective justification, one must first show a legitimate aim. The legitimate aim cannot normally be related to cost alone and cannot itself be discriminatory. So the fact that a particular course of action would otherwise be very expensive would not by itself permit discrimination.
Even if you can show a legitimate aim, you need also to show that the means being adopted are proportionate. So if the impact on the person being discriminated against is disproportionate, it is unlawful. This is usually treated quite stringently against the person seeking to discriminate also.
Set against that, where two people are not in relevantly the same position, they can be treated differently and that isn't discrimination at all. Since most differences between Eurozone countries and non-Eurozone countries would come in that category, I'm not at all sure what the provision is trying to deal with.
It is one of the bits of what's been announced that has more significance than has generally been appreciated, but the significance remains murky. Its significance has no doubt been considered at length behind closed doors, but more light would be welcome.
That's very interesting. I know it's not your legal specialism, but can you unpack any further the phrase "not in relevantly the same position"? Presumably, in employment law, that is defined fairly precisely.
On the upside, I've never seen a pb-er demolished so well, as you have just Deconstructed Nabavi. A silly and diminished person: waste no more of your time on him.
I've often said that I wouldn't want to be on the wrong side of the table from @Cyclefree.
That would mean I was really in trouble
Indeed. Reminds me of the time Joanna Lumley kebabbed Phil Woolas in front of the cameras. He really had the look of a boy caught playing with himself by a furious Aunty.
On the upside, I've never seen a pb-er demolished so well, as you have just Deconstructed Nabavi. A silly and diminished person: waste no more of your time on him.
I've often said that I wouldn't want to be on the wrong side of the table from @Cyclefree.
That would mean I was really in trouble
Indeed. Reminds me of the time Joanna Lumley kebabbed Phil Woolas in front of the cameras. He really had the look of a boy caught playing with himself by a furious Aunty.
As someone who has recently laid Rubio a 4th place would be lovely, a 5th would be awesome.
It will be schizophrenic for the betting markets to go from Rubio a sure thing to Trump to Rubio to Trump, up and down 30% in an hour, every week.
I'm not touching that trampoline, that's why I'm out from a week before Iowa, because I knew anything can happen in the last week, and I'm not in a mood to try my nerves on betting on that rollercoaster.
On the upside, I've never seen a pb-er demolished so well, as you have just Deconstructed Nabavi. A silly and diminished person: waste no more of your time on him.
I've often said that I wouldn't want to be on the wrong side of the table from @Cyclefree.
That would mean I was really in trouble
Indeed. Reminds me of the time Joanna Lumley kebabbed Phil Woolas in front of the cameras. He really had the look of a boy caught playing with himself by a furious Aunty.
That is not an image I wanted before dinner.
I hope you're wearing sensible shoes before meeting your parole officer. ;-)
On the upside, I've never seen a pb-er demolished so well, as you have just Deconstructed Nabavi. A silly and diminished person: waste no more of your time on him.
I've often said that I wouldn't want to be on the wrong side of the table from @Cyclefree.
That would mean I was really in trouble
Indeed. Reminds me of the time Joanna Lumley kebabbed Phil Woolas in front of the cameras. He really had the look of a boy caught playing with himself by a furious Aunty.
That is not an image I wanted before dinner.
I hope you're wearing sensible shoes before meeting your parole officer. ;-)
Not my parole officer.
The place I'm going has a strict dress code and a sensible shoes policy.
Comments
1. none of the candidates to have a majority; and
2. the absence of a deal between two or more of the candidates with delegates (including candidates out of the race at that point) to push one of the candidates across the delegate count finishing line.
That is very easy to envisage in this race if Cruz (states with large evangelical numbers), Trump (the other very red states) and Rubio (purple and blue states) all stack up useful numbers of delegates.
Don't forget also that, under the new rules, 1050 of the 2470 GOP delegates are allocated on a proportional basis, so a 400/350/300 split come 14 March is not at all hard to envisage. That would give the 'losers' a minimum of 650 of the 1236 delegates they'd need to prevent the frontrunner from crossing the line.
https://t.co/lTl5Z6D3d5
Not sure if anyone has noticed, but George does reward people loyal to him.
Accelerating from Cape Canaveral at 1G (+ & minus) - how long would it take to touch down on the moon.
Answer: 3 1/2 hours.
Of course the problem is having sufficiently powerful rocket to accelerate at 1G for that length of time.
Yes, and you can be sure Labour won't offer a referendum when they happily sign the UK up to even more integration.
I'll repeat what I said earlier - this referendum is the one chance we are going to get to break the cycle of abuse the political class have inflicted on the voters.
Anyone thinking they can vote Remain now and maybe get another chance a year or three down the line if the EU starts playing silly b*ggers is kidding themselves.
We have got this referendum largely by chance and can't duck the opportunity it gives.
The "hitman theory" has always intrigued me.
See
http://space.stackexchange.com/questions/840/how-fast-will-1g-get-you-there
Did you know, for example, that Lucan had a pathological fear of blood? The idea of him bludgeoning someone to death has to overcome that little detail...
He was certainly surrounded by people who could have got him out the country safely - and hidden him for decades - if they had decided to look after one of their own.
I'll try and do another AV thread in the next few months to keep up the excitement levels
This is America. You are expected to make it by your own rights. Which is why the Donald rarely admits he started off with a fortune.
And, ahem, I think you mean the voters of Morley & Outwood. Such as me.
PS Apologies if I don't reply straight away, I have dinner with a parole officer to get ready for.
Hillary would at least be the candidate for the Dems having won fair and square. So I think it would not matter in the slightest that the criticism was coming from her.
Could he have mistaken his own wife, even in the dark?
Why did he attempt to help his wife, rather than finish her off?
@PolhomeEditor · 19m19 minutes ago
EXCL Comedian on 'Jeremy Corbyn For PM' tour admits she won't vote Labour http://polho.me/1PA8VTD
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/may/08/lobbyists-european-parliament-brussels-corporate
There were 30,000 lobbyists in Brussels two years ago, anyone think that number will have got smaller ? For comparison that's roughly double the number of lobbyists in Washington DC.
My wife is firmly of the view it was an insurance job (on the family silver) that went badly wrong - because Lucan hired a psycho to do it. Talk to coppers in the know, and they even suggest a name....
Or because, just maybe, he had nothing to do with it, and panicked, then realised no-one would believe him?
http://news.sky.com/story/1635286/rand-paul-suspends-campaign-for-gop-nomination
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brokered_convention
I'm not sure if this was JC's worse PMQs but I suspect those that thought he was a "refreshing change" are now getting ever so slightly bored.
Hat tip to Barry (Auf Wiedersehen Pet)
Well thanks for that!
@Wanderer LOL
@NorfolkTilIDie Are you Pro-EU or Anti-EU?
If Rubio gets it through back room shenanigans at a brokered Convention, I could see Nikki Haley being a Veep that everyone could agree to. Woman. Check. Conservative/Tea Party. Check. Minority. Check. Electable. Check. Attractive. Check. Eloquent. Check.
I guess they are consoling themselves that they might come back for another bite of the cherry next time around.
Sorry to hear about Lord Lucan's death, hope his family can quickly come to terms with their sad loss.
"Suspend" has no legal meaning. Campaigns still have debts, salaries, rents to pay etc and they can still raise campaign money to pay those even when they seem to have, on the face of it, quit.
There can be Federal matching funds to still be had too although that's not a common campaign route these days.
That would mean I was really in trouble
It's a phrase much used in the concept of EU discrimination legislation (in, for example, employment law to justify age discrimination or indirect sex discrimination) and seems to be used by analogy here. In order to demonstrate an objective justification, one must first show a legitimate aim. The legitimate aim cannot normally be related to cost alone and cannot itself be discriminatory. So the fact that a particular course of action would otherwise be very expensive would not by itself permit discrimination.
Even if you can show a legitimate aim, you need also to show that the means being adopted are proportionate. So if the impact on the person being discriminated against is disproportionate, it is unlawful. This is usually treated quite stringently against the person seeking to discriminate also.
Set against that, where two people are not in relevantly the same position, they can be treated differently and that isn't discrimination at all. Since most differences between Eurozone countries and non-Eurozone countries would come in that category, I'm not at all sure what the provision is trying to deal with.
It is one of the bits of what's been announced that has more significance than has generally been appreciated, but the significance remains murky. Its significance has no doubt been considered at length behind closed doors, but more light would be welcome.
LEAVE = British and proud!
REMAIN = Traitor Pig-Dogs!
Shake up at @vote_leave campaign. Dominic Cummings and Matthew Elliot stand down from Board
Role of politicians strengthened on @vote_leave board with posts for Michael Forsyth and Nigel Lawson
Trump 31
Bush 14
Kasich 12
Rubio 10
Cruz 9
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/01/24/electoral-reform-might-not-be-the-panacea-the-left-think-it-is/
I wouldn't trust opinion polls on predicting the correct result.
Yes Sanders and Trump start with a 20 and 30 point lead in N.H. and it's only 6 days to go, but I'm sticking with the theory that media and momentum matter more than opinion polls.
Although I'm sure that Sanders will win N.H. because he's a neighbour, I'm not sure that Trump will since Iowa hasn't filtered in yet and there is yet another GOP debate on Saturday.
There is the extra obstacle that voting takes place on a working day, so it will be dominated by older people. And a severe snowstorm forecasted for that day.
I think betting against opinion polls is the only sure thing at this point.
Wednesday: They use more of Lord Lawson.
Wait until you see my suggestion for Leave this weekend.
http://www.uml.edu/News/press-releases/2016/TrackingPoll02032016.aspx
Trump 38
Cruz 14
Rubio 12 +2
Bush 9
Kasich 7 -2
Christie 6 +1
Carson 3
Fiorina 3
Paul 2
But the hours we spent on Iowa polls was a complete waste, so why bother.
They had a good day today.
He really had the look of a boy caught playing with himself by a furious Aunty.
I'm not touching that trampoline, that's why I'm out from a week before Iowa, because I knew anything can happen in the last week, and I'm not in a mood to try my nerves on betting on that rollercoaster.
Or 13, 3, 2, 2
10% threshold, and any unallocated go to the statewide winner.
The place I'm going has a strict dress code and a sensible shoes policy.
I have chosen appropriately.