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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » We can’t assume that the Donald is out of it yet
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » We can’t assume that the Donald is out of it yet
The US pollster Public Policy Polling has a welcome practice of sending out Tweets like the one above to indicate significant trends in surveys some time before the poll is actually published.
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I don't want to DavidL the England cricket team, but I'm going to back England to win the World T20 tournament.
You can get 8/1 with some bookies.
https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/694566756984188929
http://news.sky.com/story/1635243/poll-two-thirds-say-eu-proposals-a-bad-deal
Great work, Dave.
And tell Osborne to stop insulting the voters' intelligence.
But I'm confused. Did Tusk in error publish an earlier draft yesterday.....?
"It's a good point about fudge. It puzzles me when people complain that the EU fudges, is inconsistent, kicks the can down the road. These are things that we see as virtues in our own history. Or, rather, some of us do, which is perhaps the point."
Fudges work when they are held together by the glue of a shared culture. We have that (or rather had it - Scotland's culture seems to be going a different route to E&W now) in Great Britain, so our fudges have worked. The EU does not have a shared culture, so there is no glue to hold the fudges together. Thus deals in the EU have to stand on their own merit - on the letter of the law.
Git.
The law around this sort of crap needs to be tightened up
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-nottinghamshire-35472617
Politicians are probably waiting to sniff the wind before they make a commitment.
Of course, when you keep winning elections as a result of false consciousness, it isn't such a bad approach.
@JohnRentoul: Corbyn brilliantly united the Tory party at a moment of maximum potential division @rafaelbehr
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-35481376
I disagree that it's unseemly though. The issue has been gnawed over for decades. There's nothing left to say. And migration is already a huuge deal for voters.
Farage only did that to make the GE about the EU, where he knew UKIP would get a boost.
You're joking. Pawns are well above the rank Osborne regards voters. Especially tax payers
Cuts the deficits year on year, doesn't appeal to a narrow extreme segment of the party, looks to make welfare work.
Congratulations!
I have some sympathy with our politicians. We are in uncharted territory, because there hasn't been a referendum like this for decades. Nobody has an effing clue what the public think, or how they might vote, really.
Whether we are in or out of the EU, I will be optimistic about the future of this country, I care about it deeply.
The guy murdered an innocent woman for no reason
Either way, surely you need to weight the sample to ensure it reflects the political balance of the electorate.
If it's hired by a company, joint and several liability on the directors.
Tough to go much higher without breaching natural justice for what could just be an administrative oversight
Compared to the current round of lying through teeth, the adjustment of position of when a referendum should be held is pretty minor. In anycase Dave is pulled in when he wants it because the migration issues make it awkward for him, its entirely equitable for the kipper to push out their proposed time for the referendum for the same reasons.
You want to convey calm, serenity, broad sunlit uplands.
Yes. For the second time in the last 25 years the Conservative leadership is perpetrating a massive fraud about the EU on the voters.
Last time, we had careerist/airhead (delete as applicable) Tory MPs queueing up to tell us what a great deal for the UK Maastricht was, and how it 'would put the break on [EU] Federalism'.
And we had that nice Mr.Major being all soothing to the public while the whips and party machine ruthlessly bullied MPs who dissented.
Spot the difference with now. It's exactly the same playbook.
Ultimately there will have to be A Deal that establishes some kind of "associate membership" of the EU - for Britain, maybe some of the Scandinavian countries, perhaps ultimately Turkey and Ukraine - with appropriate safeguards to stop them being overwhelmed by the numerically and economically dominant core group on their path to deeper integration.
What Cameron is delivering is a deal, but it is not The Deal.
So it's just a can kicked down the road. For now, most of us may decide it is a kickable can. But at some point the can can be kicked no further, and even (most of) the more europhile politicians have enough sense to realise the British public have minimal truck with joining the euro, pooling much more sovereignty with our neighbours or entering a federal European system.
Like some others on here, I think in the Very Long Run it makes little difference whether we are on the fringes of the EU with an ever-increasing list of opt-outs, or in the EEA outside the EU. But we need to find a way to get there.
Related to a discussion that Robert and I were having a few days ago about stopping the refugees. Might be a good idea and I would love to see the left's heads collectively explode by putting one of the most conservative politicians in the western world in charge of immigration policy.
If what I have read on here in the last two days is correct, getting to the place where we have an agreement with the EU where we solely control everything but trade is impossible.
If we truly want independence and control of borders we may have to live without any kind of trade agreement whatsoever, beyond what's in the WTO.
[edit] Peter Bone for next leader?
Honestly if UKIP had dumped Nigel when they had the chance and put someone else in his place they would be taking Dave to the cleaners right now. 12% of the vote, won the EU election, their raison d'etre is now closer to being achieved than ever before and they are absolutely bloody nowhere to be seen and their leader seems to have gone mad.
Interestingly, Roy Jenkins - the epitome of the plummy Europhile one might think - actually mused late in his life that perhaps the UK was just not suited to being part of the EU project.
Unfortunately the current crop of Europhiles are not motivated by his high-minded ideals (whether you agree with those ideals or not, I think that is a fair characterisation).
Instead they are motivated by a mixture of careerism, narcissism and furthering a corporatist agenda.
Like bullying supermarkets, they intend to submit their application for more integration over and over again until the public give in - or until the public tell them to f*** off.
But that dishonesty - and we see it now with this so-called deal - which gives us nothing at all of any substance risks ultimately dooming the whole project of anchoring Britain in the EU. But still the long term is pretty long term and Cameron has a referendum to win, so who cares, eh?
It's depressing for those of us who want Europe to work effectively and to deal with the issues on its borders: wars, deep instability, severe risks from deeply hostile terrorist organisations, mass migration, challenges from the last two to European culture and values (in their widest sense), a hostile and defensive Russia, as well as the economic challenges around the globe.
To be fair, I think Cameron sincerely believes the same: I have no doubt he's genuinely patriotic and thinks it's in the best interests of the UK to Remain part of the EU club. He thinks seats at tables like this are worth almost any price in the broader UK national interest, and doesn't think we'd get anything better if we left.
I think he's totally wrong, lacks confidence, imagination and negotiating skills, and is being disingenuous with the deal to the voters, and attempting to bully all his MPs, but I don't see him as someone who doesn't care about the UK.
I think the Danish/Swiss solution will also work for them.
Exactly - partly by accident, we finally have a chance to break this cycle of abuse, and stop going back to our nasty partner for another dose.
It's also dispiriting that no politician seems to have half your intuition.
One union down, the others will surely collapse following it. Now just to deal with the Junior Doctors and happy days.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-35484773
http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/profusely
OOOOOPPPS
It came before the magistrates - where the court refused to accept my guilty plea. The prosecutor got rather flustered - and couldn't show who was driving either. In the end, it got thrown out. So in that case, I felt the court had been eminently sensible!
*Cameras which face the car and take an image of the driver would cure this issue. But then, they would be much more visible - and wouldn't generate as much revenue.
"Discussions with Intelligence Community officials have revealed that Ms. Clinton’s “unclassified” emails included Holy Grail items of American espionage such as the true names of Central Intelligence Agency intelligence officers serving overseas under cover. Worse, some of those exposed are serving under non-official cover. NOCs (see this for an explanation of their important role in espionage) are the pointy end of the CIA spear and they are always at risk of exposure – which is what Ms. Clinton’s emails have done.
"Not only have these spies had their lives put in serious risk by this, it’s a clear violation of Federal law. The Intelligence Identities Protection Act of 1982, enacted due to the murder of the CIA’s station chief in Athens after his cover was blown by the left-wing media, makes it a Federal crime to divulge the true identity of any covert operative serving U.S. intelligence if that person has not previous been publicly acknowledged to be working for our spy agencies."