So: that means we (as in the Europeans in general) spend a few billions (or even tens of billions) on making places in the Middle East which are safe, and where there is adequate food and water.
Erm...you are talking about us colonising chunks of the Middle East. Good luck with that. The ME is a basket case precisely because of its culture. Access to money is not their problem. Culture determines your country's living standards. Culture determines whether or not its OK to surround women and sexually abuse them. Culture determines if its good to push gays off rooftops or not. Culture decides if your people are Makers or Takers. How can we fix their broken culture?
In the early 1970s, there was an influential paper written for the UK government about the Republic of Ireland would get progressively and permanently poorer. Their culture, which involved unbending obedience to the Catholic Church, meant that commerce and science could not prosper as it did in Protestant Northern Europe.
The poll Plato posted suggests that Rubio is definitely worth a punt, both in Iowa and nationally (if he wins Iowa his odds will change dramatically). Not a huge punt as it's only one poll, but still.
rcs's analysis of what we should do on refugees is really accurate IMO, and pretty much what I've been arguing for over a year. We should make peaceful countries in the region an irresistible cash offer to operate decent migrant camps with some prospect of actually making a living there while things are (we hope) sorted out. It would be a very sensible investment.
Thoughtful piece by Tatchell on the balance between tolerating free speech and tolerating bigotry, which I think many here will agree with (still not sure what I think myself):
No chance... there will never be mass deportations.
I agree, particularly from Germany. What there might be is bribed deportations: pay people ten or twenty thousand dollars (it would have to be US currency) to go back home. After which they will just try to make their way back once more...
It's a mess with no easy solutions.
Just suppose, for a moment that the current Geneva talks succeed. (I know, I know). Assad retires to a villa by the Black Sea and someone else takes over. That leaves Syria united with IS as the only remaining trouble-makers, and consequently much of Syria peaceful. In those circumstances, how many of the current refugees are going to go home, especially if support for rebuilding is available?
HA HA HA HA HA. Ahhhh....
To be fair, I suspect if you're in a camp in Sangrette, and there is almost no chance of being granted citizenship of an EU country, you might get a few takers.
The general point made by OldKingCole is a good one. The supply of migrants is a curve. If we executed every single one that arrived, none would arrive. If we promised each $1m/year, then Syria would be empty. For every migrant, the risk of crossing, the likelihood success, etc., compared to the consequences of staying is a personal calculation.
We need to make it more expensive to come to Europe, and more attractive to stay in their home country. In this way we fundamentally move the curve.
So: that means we (as in the Europeans in general) spend a few billions (or even tens of billions) on making places in the Middle East which are safe, and where there is adequate food and water. If we could make these "Special Economic Zones", and exempt exports from there of duties. This should make these places less attractive to leave.
We then need to make the journey less attractive by increasing border security, and by escorting boats back to their point of embarking, rather than bringing them to Europe.
And for those who do make it, we need to make sure that a meaningful proportion are deported.
Together these should move the curve. Will they get rid of all migrants? No. Could they meaningfully reduce them? Yes.
But it isn't, because as another poster has noted this essentially means a return to colonisation, which is just not going to happen.
You can try spending money (and it would take a lot, not loose change) to radically improve the situation in these places but...
How do you ensure it is spent sensibly - unless you spend it?
How do you ensure there are not wars that create refugee issues and wreck economies - unless you govern?
How do you ensure decent legal systems, property rights etc. - unless you impose them?
Perhaps the imperfect situation in the former Yougoslavia should be a model. They're not particularly friendly, and it's not fully solved, but there's more or less peace.
It look like EU negotiations now returned to most important topic:
"He said France, in particular, was unhappy with a British proposal to allow countries outside the eurozone to call a European Council meeting to discuss key issues affecting non-euro members, believing this would amount to a veto."
If Euro countries can override non-Euro countries then Cameron would have failed here I reckon. The ability to call a meeting is a very weak defence.
So: that means we (as in the Europeans in general) spend a few billions (or even tens of billions) on making places in the Middle East which are safe, and where there is adequate food and water.
Erm...you are talking about us colonising chunks of the Middle East. Good luck with that. The ME is a basket case precisely because of its culture. Access to money is not their problem. Culture determines your country's living standards. Culture determines whether or not its OK to surround women and sexually abuse them. Culture determines if its good to push gays off rooftops or not. Culture decides if your people are Makers or Takers. How can we fix their broken culture?
In the early 1970s, there was an influential paper written for the UK government about the Republic of Ireland would get progressively and permanently poorer. Their culture, which involved unbending obedience to the Catholic Church, meant that commerce and science could not prosper as it did in Protestant Northern Europe.
It didn't work out like that.
Anyway, The point I'm making is this:
People respond to incentives.
We have the wrong incentives.
I think your points about dealing with asylum seeking and migration are sound enough. I see that Austria is starting to deport migrants and Germany following suit (Times report)
The poll Plato posted suggests that Rubio is definitely worth a punt, both in Iowa and nationally (if he wins Iowa his odds will change dramatically). Not a huge punt as it's only one poll, but still.
As an aside, I don't know what the Spaniards are doing, but they are doing a great job in keeping refugee numbers down. Even though crossing the Med from North Africa to Spain is a lot narrower than managing it to Greece, they got only a few thousand (who presumably just broke into the Spanish enclaves on the North African coast), against the million odd that made it to Greece.
Greece is close to Turkey and Turkey is close to Syria. Syria is a war zone.
I agree, particularly from Germany. What there might be is bribed deportations: pay people ten or twenty thousand dollars (it would have to be US currency) to go back home. After which they will just try to make their way back once more...
It's a mess with no easy solutions.
Just suppose, for a moment that the current Geneva talks succeed. (I know, I know). Assad retires to a villa by the Black Sea and someone else takes over. That leaves Syria united with IS as the only remaining trouble-makers, and consequently much of Syria peaceful. In those circumstances, how many of the current refugees are going to go home, especially if support for rebuilding is available?
HA HA HA HA HA. Ahhhh....
To be fair, I suspect if you're in a camp in Sangrette, and there is almost no chance of being granted citizenship of an EU country, you might get a few takers.
The general point made by OldKingCole is a good one. The supply of migrants is a curve. If we executed every single one that arrived, none would arrive. If we promised each $1m/year, then Syria would be empty. For every migrant, the risk of crossing, the likelihood success, etc., compared to the consequences of staying is a personal calculation.
We need to make it more expensive to come to Europe, and more attractive to stay in their home country. In this way we fundamentally move the curve.
So: that means we (as in the Europeans in general) spend a few billions (or even tens of billions) on making places in the Middle East which are safe, and where there is adequate food and water. If we could make these "Special Economic Zones", and exempt exports from there of duties. This should make these places less attractive to leave.
We then need to make the journey less attractive by increasing border security, and by escorting boats back to their point of embarking, rather than bringing them to Europe.
And for those who do make it, we need to make sure that a meaningful proportion are deported.
Together these should move the curve. Will they get rid of all migrants? No. Could they meaningfully reduce them? Yes.
Sounds a teensy weensy bit Colonial/Mandate-ish.
The road to hell, an' all that...
Yes it is.
We're trying to create Singapore or Hong Kong in the region. Somewhere aspirational where the rule of law is paramount, and people can make money.
Rent 10 plots of 200 square miles, each with good access to the coast. Try 10 different systems. Experiment. One of the 10 will get it right.
As an aside, I don't know what the Spaniards are doing, but they are doing a great job in keeping refugee numbers down. Even though crossing the Med from North Africa to Spain is a lot narrower than managing it to Greece, they got only a few thousand (who presumably just broke into the Spanish enclaves on the North African coast), against the million odd that made it to Greece.
Greece is close to Turkey and Turkey is close to Syria. Syria is a war zone.
But a very large number of the refugees are actually from Morocco and Libya
Latest UNHCR data on the 912k refugees arriving in Greece in last 12 months. Interesting eg less than 1/2 = Syrians https://t.co/e1bqHFmyrO
Interesting yet unsurprising. Judging from the photos which were published of many of the migrants, it was pretty obvious that many - or even most - of them were not Syrian.
I was very interested (and, if I'm honest, surprised) to read of the very different offending rates for Syrians versus other migrant groups:
"The Syrian refugees intentionally welcomed by Merkel have so far proven overwhelmingly law abiding. According to a Jan. 8 police report from North Rhine-Westphalia, the western German state that includes Cologne, only 0.5 percent of Syrian migrants in the city were caught committing crimes within a year.
By contrast, among migrants from North Africa, as many as 40 percent were caught committing crimes within a year, the report says.
Virtually none of the North Africans arriving in Germany have proven to be genuine refugees: last year Germany granted some form of protection to just 0.19 percent of Tunisian migrants, 3.74 percent of Moroccans and 1.6 percent of Algerians."
Interesting analysis – looks like genuine Syrian refugees are law abiding on the whole and appreciative of the opportunity afforded them by the host country. – No surprise that illegal migrants who have shown no respect for the rule of law continue to do so. – Another reason why helping Syrians based in the Turkish and Jordanian refugee camps was a wise move.
Syria is a relatively well advanced country with a long history compared to north Africa (?)
A few of the saner GOP candidates need to fall on their swords for the good of their party. Rubio looks to be the best of the non-mad, non-obnoxious offerings, so the likes of Bush and Christie need to endorse him, and do so soon.
Meanwhile for the Dems, I'm still in the 'Draft Biden' camp.
Only on here could a candidate that supports a no fly zone in Syria, cancelling the Iran nuclear deal and actually increasing immigration be described as sane or non-mad/non-obnoxious.
I've noticed the GOP Establishment, no not the old Establishment of Northeastern WASPs like Nelson Rockefeller, but the professional and ideological class: the lobbyists, donors, consultants and party bureaucrats, and the elected officials they support, whose primary objective is to get Republicans into office, with little concern for ideology, are moving to Trump.
Three Reasons. 1) Electability: As I noted, above all, the GOP Establishment is invested in having a Republican president. While most of the Establishment believes the Hispanic vote nonsense, they do see that Trump is bringing in previously disaffected white working class voters. As Senator Orrin Hatch noted: “For us to win, we have to appeal the moderates and independents. We can’t just act like that only one point of view is the only way to go. That’s where Ted is going to have some trouble.” Trump, in contrast is doing well among moderate GOP voters and working class voters. Hatch said “I’ve come around a little bit on Trump.” He said. “I’m not so sure we’d lose if he’s our nominee because he’s appealing to people who a lot of the Republican candidates have not appealed to in the past.”
2) Someone the GOP Establishment can work with. Bob Dole said: “He’s got the right personality and he’s kind of a deal-maker.” Craig Shirley, quoted in U.S. News & World Report, said: “Ultimately, the Washington establishment deep down—although they find Trump tacky or distasteful—they think that they ultimately can work with him.”
3) Party Infrastructure. Lobbyist Richard Hohlt told the New York Times’ Martin, “Do they all love Trump? No. But there’s a feeling that he is not going to layer over the party or install his own person. Whereas Cruz will have his own people there.” They get to keep their jobs.
Of course the shrill neocon voices in the media won't change but the GOP is beginning to rally round Trump.
Not sure about Iowa not being a good predictor for Democrats. You have to go back to 1992 to find an Iowa winner who didn't go on to take the nomination. In that year someone called Clinton only got 3% in Iowa.
King Cole, not as prosperous as Germany, though. Merkel's siren call has drawn those who otherwise would never have made the attempt.
Miss Plato, that, and the 8% [of Lib Dem voters] who reckoned the Lib Dems had the best team to lead the country, makes me wonder if the yellows will go backwards in 2020.
Final Iowa GOP poll from Emerson College: Trump 27% (-6 ) Cruz 26 (+3) Rubio 22 (+8)
Tight three-horse race that will be won on turnout.
Rubio has timed his surge to perfection. I'm long him for the Presidency (phew).
Interesting. Although I am sceptical of polls for Iowa caucus. As I understand it the actual meetings involve a lot of discussion about the merits of candidates and if a candidate doesn't reach a threshold (15%?) then their voters get another chance to move to another side of the room. In small towns where voters know each other there is presumably a lot of personal discussion that goes on. I have never understood how a poll can hope to capture this.
There hasn't been fighting in Tartous province for a while, Latakia province is now free of fighting except for a small sliver in the NE which will likely be liberated in the next week or so. There is no reason for refugees to leave Syria to find safety.
The Turkish government has done nothing to stop the flow of refugees and the Greek Euro-Communists continue to wave them through.
% of a parties voters who voted for them #GE2015 will vote for them again today
CON 87% LAB 82% UKIP 82% LD 63%
The LDs are extinct, at what stage do we stop reporting on them and lump them in with the Others? I think from memory UKIP at 6% were still an Other. The DUP at 8 seats are an Other.
As an aside, I don't know what the Spaniards are doing, but they are doing a great job in keeping refugee numbers down. Even though crossing the Med from North Africa to Spain is a lot narrower than managing it to Greece, they got only a few thousand (who presumably just broke into the Spanish enclaves on the North African coast), against the million odd that made it to Greece.
Greece is close to Turkey and Turkey is close to Syria. Syria is a war zone.
Much of Africa is a war zone. The Spanish have done as Robert Smithson suggests. Paying governments not to let people through or to take them back, and returning illegal immigrants
% of a parties voters who voted for them #GE2015 will vote for them again today
CON 87% LAB 82% UKIP 82% LD 63%
The LDs are extinct, at what stage do we stop reporting on them and lump them in with the Others? I think from memory UKIP at 6% were still an Other. The DUP at 8 seats are an Other.
Need not be symmetric; the bar can be higher for entry than exit.
% of a parties voters who voted for them #GE2015 will vote for them again today
CON 87% LAB 82% UKIP 82% LD 63%
The LDs are extinct, at what stage do we stop reporting on them and lump them in with the Others? I think from memory UKIP at 6% were still an Other. The DUP at 8 seats are an Other.
Need not be symmetric; the bar can be higher for entry than exit.
Indeed but #GE2015 was extinction level enough for the LDs. If the LDs have lost more than a third of their #GE2015 voters then they are deader than John Cleese's parrot.
The poll Plato posted suggests that Rubio is definitely worth a punt, both in Iowa and nationally (if he wins Iowa his odds will change dramatically). Not a huge punt as it's only one poll, but still.
At under 2-1 Nick ?!
Well exactly. Rubio's odds should reflect the fact he's a plucky outsider, not relatively close second favourite!
I agree, particularly from Germany. What there might be is bribed deportations: pay people ten or twenty thousand dollars (it would have to be US currency) to go back home. After which they will just try to make their way back once more...
It's a mess with no easy solutions.
Just suppose, for a moment that the current Geneva talks succeed. (I know, I know). Assad retires to a villa by the Black Sea and someone else takes over. That leaves Syria united with IS as the only remaining trouble-makers, and consequently much of Syria peaceful. In those circumstances, how many of the current refugees are going to go home, especially if support for rebuilding is available?
HA HA HA HA HA. Ahhhh....
To be fair, I suspect if you're in a camp in Sangrette, and there is almost no chance of being granted citizenship of an EU country, you might get a few takers
We need to make it more expensive to come to Europe, and more attractive to stay in their home country. In this way we fundamentally move the curve.
So: that means we (as in the Europeans in general) spend a few billions (or even tens of billions) on making places in the Middle East which are safe, and where there is adequate food and water. If we could make these "Special Economic Zones", and exempt exports from there of duties. This should make these places less attractive to leave.
We then need to make the journey less attractive by increasing border security, and by escorting boats back to their point of embarking, rather than bringing them to Europe.
And for those who do make it, we need to make sure that a meaningful proportion are deported.
Together these should move the curve. Will they get rid of all migrants? No. Could they meaningfully reduce them? Yes.
Sounds a teensy weensy bit Colonial/Mandate-ish.
The road to hell, an' all that...
Yes it is.
We're trying to create Singapore or Hong Kong in the region. Somewhere aspirational where the rule of law is paramount, and people can make money.
Rent 10 plots of 200 square miles, each with good access to the coast. Try 10 different systems. Experiment. One of the 10 will get it right.
Well at least it's an idea. Perhaps give them an owl also.
I don't personally think that reviving Colonialism is going to work in any region, perhaps least of all Syria/the Levant. Apart from anything else, it would take hundreds of thousands of troops, thousands of administrators, thousands of civil contractors, blah, blah, etc, etc.
And as we know only too well, that ain't gonna happen.
... Although I am sceptical of polls for Iowa caucus. As I understand it the actual meetings involve a lot of discussion about the merits of candidates and if a candidate doesn't reach a threshold (15%?) then their voters get another chance to move to another side of the room. In small towns where voters know each other there is presumably a lot of personal discussion that goes on. I have never understood how a poll can hope to capture this.
Historically, polls haven't captured it at all well.
% of a parties voters who voted for them #GE2015 will vote for them again today
CON 87% LAB 82% UKIP 82% LD 63%
The LDs are extinct, at what stage do we stop reporting on them and lump them in with the Others? I think from memory UKIP at 6% were still an Other. The DUP at 8 seats are an Other.
The LD’s are still winning local government seats. A net gain, admittedly of only one, in January.
Must admit though, it will take a while to elininate all the toxic effects of coalition.
Paul 400 is big odds on betfair to win Iowa caucus.Despite all the polls I do not think is impossible as he is the sole libertarian candidate.Fiorina is the sole female candidate and 1000/1.On a given day why shouldn't the ladies decide to vote for her?Had a few quid on both.The religious vote could divide up,the establishment vote could divide up whilst Trump not doing the debate may put off people
Gunslinger Prediction for #GE2020 if the boundary changes are implemented, Yeouch!!! https://t.co/NRgabZtWjY
and also assuming the Tories get 40.4% (smelling salts on standby). Wouldn't it be more interesting to compare the nominal results of the 2015 election with the 2020 seats?
As an aside, I don't know what the Spaniards are doing, but they are doing a great job in keeping refugee numbers down. Even though crossing the Med from North Africa to Spain is a lot narrower than managing it to Greece, they got only a few thousand (who presumably just broke into the Spanish enclaves on the North African coast), against the million odd that made it to Greece.
Morocco is the least failed state in North Africa, I guess. And Algeria is the second least. They both probably have a measure of control over their coastlines, unlike Libya. But there are plenty of North African immigrants in Spain nonetheless.
% of a parties voters who voted for them #GE2015 will vote for them again today
CON 87% LAB 82% UKIP 82% LD 63%
The LDs are extinct, at what stage do we stop reporting on them and lump them in with the Others? I think from memory UKIP at 6% were still an Other. The DUP at 8 seats are an Other.
The LD’s are still winning local government seats. A net gain, admittedly of only one, in January.
Must admit though, it will take a while to elininate all the toxic effects of coalition.
What is the raison d'etre of a third party if coalitions are toxic?
SNP ministers want a system known as per capita indexation that would “protect” their future income tax revenues from the impact of Scotland having lower population growth.
However, the Treasury has argued this would be unfair on the rest of the UK as increasing amounts of income tax raised in England would be used to fund services in Scotland despite the levy being devolved.
They will not accept a bum deal from the NASTY party and we will be back to square one with lots of people not happy with Scotland being cheated. All you ex government bu** lickers will be sent out to spread your lies again to try and save them.
So Scotland cannot afford to raise its own income tax. What a surprise. The only arse licking going on is from you. All the time. How fragrant is Nicola's?
I see the report on kids company is known out today apparently. What a bunch of charlatans. Doing some level of good is no excuse for such large scale mismanagement, arrogance and waste -there are others who would have done much more good if it hadn't been wasted on them,
On place names, Bombay to Mumbai confuses me - the only guy I know from there calls it Bombay - as to my knowledge it isn't like the Brits renamed it from what it had been called. The city grew up around the British presence and was always called Bombay wasn't it? And it and Mumbai were local names for spaces where the city was built?
Well Mumbai has another example. The main train station, Chhatrapati Shivaji Terminus is still known to local people as VT (Victoria Terminus). No one uses the new "CST" abbreviation other than overly PC foreigners.
The airport in Mumbai is still coded BOM too, which confuses those who don't know the history.
% of a parties voters who voted for them #GE2015 will vote for them again today
CON 87% LAB 82% UKIP 82% LD 63%
The LDs are extinct, at what stage do we stop reporting on them and lump them in with the Others? I think from memory UKIP at 6% were still an Other. The DUP at 8 seats are an Other.
The LD’s are still winning local government seats. A net gain, admittedly of only one, in January.
Must admit though, it will take a while to elininate all the toxic effects of coalition.
What is the raison d'etre of a third party if coalitions are toxic?
Not necessarily all, but that one was. Wasn’t a good idea for the Irish Greens, or the German FDP last time round, either.
And, Mr D, I used that excuse for years. All went wrong after 2010, though!
Meanwhile: Enda Kenny is expected to announce the date of the Irish GE in a few days' time. The Irish Labour Party has been holding a party conference, and once that is out of the way it is likely that the GE will be called for 25 or 26 Feb, although it could still be the beginning of March.
There have been a few polls since the start of a year, showing a broadly unchanged position. In the latest one, Labour were up a little at 10%, which is the crucial number at which they should begin to hold a useful number of seats; below that vote share, they would be in very big trouble indeed. Other recent polls have been less good for them. Overall, I still think a Fine Gael/Labour coalition remains the most likely outcome (quite possibly as a minority government), with a Fine Gael minority government as the next most likely. The bookies' favourite of an FG/FF coalition looks politically impractical to me.
Details of the latest poll (with seat projections) here:
Trump doesn't want tp be president ; he would be horrified if it were forced upon him ...he only entered the race to boost his TV ratings and was surprised by his own success ; he's playing it by ear , improvising as he goes , but he knows only too well that he can only ride this train so far and will then suddenly pull out and quit leaving his gormless supporters in the lurch He is not a politician ,; he is primarily an entertainer ..every time I see him I am reminded of some gormless WWF wrestler showboating to the crowd ...he has a very limited vocabulary and relies on repition and rude facial expressions to get his point across ; he's not even a good demagogue but is merely a comedic parody of a demagogue ; Trumpolini I presume ?
I really don't think Trump will pull out. Why would he when he is winning?
Is it true that he hasn't actually spent that much on his campaign (in the context of the other campaigns at least)?
I believe so. He is a reality TV star. A motor mouth. It's a moot point just how much money he has any way. He has a brand, not a business. The remainder of what he owns of Trump tower is mortgaged. Other prestigious buildings he has on leasehold. Other projects he merely gets a commission for use of his name. He sells endorsements (go figure). He has mortgages on other properties. He is worth a bob or two but how much of it is in the bank as ready money to be burned on the campaign trail is debatable.
''I believe so. He is a reality TV star. A motor mouth. It's a moot point just how much money he has any way. He has a brand, not a business.''
Plenty of Trump hostages to fortune this morning. Here's the thing. Maybe, just maybe, Americans WANT muslims banned, illegals expelled and a giant wall built. We will soon find out.
King Cole, alas for the yellows, Cameron's warm hug ended up breaking their ribs.
The true nature of the libdems eddifice was a house of cards built on sand. A mixed bag trying to appeal to everybody and which spent all its time rubbishing the govt it was part of.
''I believe so. He is a reality TV star. A motor mouth. It's a moot point just how much money he has any way. He has a brand, not a business.''
Plenty of Trump hostages to fortune this morning. Here's the thing. Maybe, just maybe, Americans WANT muslims banned, illegals expelled and a giant wall built. We will soon find out.
Technically, we'll find out what about a third of Iowa GOP caucus goers want
... Although I am sceptical of polls for Iowa caucus. As I understand it the actual meetings involve a lot of discussion about the merits of candidates and if a candidate doesn't reach a threshold (15%?) then their voters get another chance to move to another side of the room. In small towns where voters know each other there is presumably a lot of personal discussion that goes on. I have never understood how a poll can hope to capture this.
Historically, polls haven't captured it at all well.
Yes, the big question there being whether anti-Trump voters will rally around Rubio.
SNP ministers want a system known as per capita indexation that would “protect” their future income tax revenues from the impact of Scotland having lower population growth.
However, the Treasury has argued this would be unfair on the rest of the UK as increasing amounts of income tax raised in England would be used to fund services in Scotland despite the levy being devolved.
They will not accept a bum deal from the NASTY party and we will be back to square one with lots of people not happy with Scotland being cheated. All you ex government bu** lickers will be sent out to spread your lies again to try and save them.
So unless rUK income tax payers continue to subsidize Scotland's devolved income tax it's a "bum deal"?
Away with you to burn Harry Potter books....
LOL, you can always bet the establishment types will trot out the "subsidy" lie, the Tories first chant when caught with hand in the cookie jar. Like all litigious rich they try to throw their weight about , just because you are rich does not mean you are any different from your average bully.
... Although I am sceptical of polls for Iowa caucus. As I understand it the actual meetings involve a lot of discussion about the merits of candidates and if a candidate doesn't reach a threshold (15%?) then their voters get another chance to move to another side of the room. In small towns where voters know each other there is presumably a lot of personal discussion that goes on. I have never understood how a poll can hope to capture this.
Historically, polls haven't captured it at all well.
Yes, the big question there being whether anti-Trump voters will rally around Rubio.
He has only one office in the whole of Iowa. Just one. That suggests to me that - maybe - another "establishment" candidate may be the one who gets the boost...
Or maybe the seven dwarves all end up on around 8%, and Trump saunters to the nomination with Cruz in his wake.
SNP ministers want a system known as per capita indexation that would “protect” their future income tax revenues from the impact of Scotland having lower population growth.
However, the Treasury has argued this would be unfair on the rest of the UK as increasing amounts of income tax raised in England would be used to fund services in Scotland despite the levy being devolved.
They will not accept a bum deal from the NASTY party and we will be back to square one with lots of people not happy with Scotland being cheated. All you ex government bu** lickers will be sent out to spread your lies again to try and save them.
So unless rUK income tax payers continue to subsidize Scotland's devolved income tax it's a "bum deal"?
Away with you to burn Harry Potter books....
LOL, you can always bet the establishment types will trot out the "subsidy" lie, the Tories first chant when caught with hand in the cookie jar. Like all litigious rich they try to throw their weight about , just because you are rich does not mean you are any different from your average bully.
It's very simple - should Scotland get the income tax it raises, or should it get that PLUS some part of rUK income tax?
King Cole, alas for the yellows, Cameron's warm hug ended up breaking their ribs.
The true nature of the libdems eddifice was a house of cards built on sand. A mixed bag trying to appeal to everybody and which spent all its time rubbishing the govt it was part of.
Kennedy and Asdown were men of principle. I’m not so sure about Clegg.
The poll Plato posted suggests that Rubio is definitely worth a punt, both in Iowa and nationally (if he wins Iowa his odds will change dramatically). Not a huge punt as it's only one poll, but still.
At under 2-1 Nick ?!
Hmm. When you put it like that... But Rubio is 14.5 on Betfair for Iowa - seems puntable. Nationally, on reflection, not.
''Yes, the big question there being whether anti-Trump voters will rally around Rubio. ''
I wonder if the Americans have a 'shy' factor like we do here. You might not admit you were going to vote for certain Repub candidates to a pollster, maybe.
''Yes, the big question there being whether anti-Trump voters will rally around Rubio. ''
I wonder if the Americans have a 'shy' factor like we do here. You might not admit you were going to vote for certain Repub candidates to a pollster, maybe.
Caucus votes are public so shy voters will probably stay at home.
''Yes, the big question there being whether anti-Trump voters will rally around Rubio. ''
I wonder if the Americans have a 'shy' factor like we do here. You might not admit you were going to vote for certain Repub candidates to a pollster, maybe.
Caucus votes are public so shy voters will probably stay at home.
I thought that was true only of the Democratic caucus, but not the Republican one
King Cole, alas for the yellows, Cameron's warm hug ended up breaking their ribs.
The true nature of the libdems eddifice was a house of cards built on sand. A mixed bag trying to appeal to everybody and which spent all its time rubbishing the govt it was part of.
Kennedy and Asdown were men of principle. I’m not so sure about Clegg.
Ashdown helped Blair into office and got shafted by him over PR. Cameron gave Clegg his report and the vote. The lib dems in the end just ran away from the scary notion of government and pissed on their own USP, coalitions.
Markit/CIPS UK Manufacturing PMI UK manufacturing growth accelerates at start of 2016 to 52.9, against market expectations of around 51.4. Excellent news although the share prices remain depressed this morning.
''Yes, the big question there being whether anti-Trump voters will rally around Rubio. ''
I wonder if the Americans have a 'shy' factor like we do here. You might not admit you were going to vote for certain Repub candidates to a pollster, maybe.
Caucus votes are public so shy voters will probably stay at home.
I thought that was true only of the Democratic caucus, but not the Republican one
The people who write the interwebs support your understanding. http://www.iowacaucus.biz/ia_caucus_howitworks.html Step 2 - At the individual Republican caucus meetings, a straw poll is taken by secret ballot to influence the delegate.
I see the report on kids company is known out today apparently. What a bunch of charlatans. Doing some level of good is no excuse for such large scale mismanagement, arrogance and waste -there are others who would have done much more good if it hadn't been wasted on them,
On place names, Bombay to Mumbai confuses me - the only guy I know from there calls it Bombay - as to my knowledge it isn't like the Brits renamed it from what it had been called. The city grew up around the British presence and was always called Bombay wasn't it? And it and Mumbai were local names for spaces where the city was built?
Well Mumbai has another example. The main train station, Chhatrapati Shivaji Terminus is still known to local people as VT (Victoria Terminus). No one uses the new "CST" abbreviation other than overly PC foreigners.
The airport in Mumbai is still coded BOM too, which confuses those who don't know the history.
Markit/CIPS UK Manufacturing PMI UK manufacturing growth accelerates at start of 2016 to 52.9, against market expectations of around 51.4. Excellent news although the share prices remain depressed this morning.
Manufacturing PMIs were generally good around Europe and in Japan, with China, Russia and France struggling:
Spain 55.5 Sweden 55.5 Ireland 54.3 Italy 53.2 UK 52.9 Germany 52.3 Japan 52.3 France 50.0 Russia 49.8 China 48.4
What does a PMI score actually mean, other than 50.1+ good, 50- bad.
It's a "Purchasing Manager's Survey".
Basically Markit surveys 10,000+ companies around the world and asks them:
- what did sales do last month - what did orders do last month - what is the order outlook - what is your employment outlook
There is a very high correlation between PMI responses and GDP data. The difference is that PMIs come out a long time before GDP figures.
The evidence, so far, is that there is no "contagion" from China to Europe. We shall see this afternoon, if December was a blip for the US economy or whether it continues to slow.
He has only one office in the whole of Iowa. Just one. That suggests to me that - maybe - another "establishment" candidate may be the one who gets the boost...
I know she's not establishment but I hope Fiorina survives the first wave of drop-outs and maybe gets a second look once they're down to 4-5 candidates. That's the point at which being the only woman in the race might play to her advantage. Sadly it looks too late for her though.
My rule of thumb is to take two thirds of the number above 50, and that is probably roughly equivalent to the annual growth rate. So, UK manufacturing production is probably growing at just under 2%, while Spain and Sweden are seeing something in the 3.5-4.0% range.
Edit to add: the PMIs are generally considered the best "forward looking" economic activity indicator.
The poll Plato posted suggests that Rubio is definitely worth a punt, both in Iowa and nationally (if he wins Iowa his odds will change dramatically). Not a huge punt as it's only one poll, but still.
rcs's analysis of what we should do on refugees is really accurate IMO, and pretty much what I've been arguing for over a year. We should make peaceful countries in the region an irresistible cash offer to operate decent migrant camps with some prospect of actually making a living there while things are (we hope) sorted out. It would be a very sensible investment.
Thoughtful piece by Tatchell on the balance between tolerating free speech and tolerating bigotry, which I think many here will agree with (still not sure what I think myself):
That's good to hear, as it was a very peculiar decision to bring a case.
AIUI, and as was argued in NI at the time, it was not clear how it was even possible that anyone had been discriminated against at all, since discrimination is against people because of their sexual orientation and it was not clear that the shop knew that their customer was a person, or if so what their orientation was.
Another of those, like the Google Tax Flap, where some campaigners wanted the law to say something different to that which it actually does.
He has only one office in the whole of Iowa. Just one. That suggests to me that - maybe - another "establishment" candidate may be the one who gets the boost...
I know she's not establishment but I hope Fiorina survives the first wave of drop-outs and maybe gets a second look once they're down to 4-5 candidates. That's the point at which being the only woman in the race might play to her advantage. Sadly it looks too late for her though.
That would be a very handsome payday for me. But I now think it highly unlikely.
Drinking and adultery are not proclivities restricted solely to powerful men, it happens rather a lot in every town and village. - As for Clegg, relations with 30 women before settling down is nothing for a healthy, good looking chap.
Markit/CIPS UK Manufacturing PMI UK manufacturing growth accelerates at start of 2016 to 52.9, against market expectations of around 51.4. Excellent news although the share prices remain depressed this morning.
Manufacturing PMIs were generally good around Europe and in Japan, with China, Russia and France struggling:
Spain 55.5 Sweden 55.5 Ireland 54.3 Italy 53.2 UK 52.9 Germany 52.3 Japan 52.3 France 50.0 Russia 49.8 China 48.4
I would say the Germans are struggling as well given the record monetary stimulus from the ECB and how depressed the Euro is vs GBP and USD.
The ECB is playing a beggar-thy-neighbour strategy to jump start EU growth, but only Spain and Ireland are really pushing forwards with it
The poll Plato posted suggests that Rubio is definitely worth a punt, both in Iowa and nationally (if he wins Iowa his odds will change dramatically). Not a huge punt as it's only one poll, but still.
rcs's analysis of what we should do on refugees is really accurate IMO, and pretty much what I've been arguing for over a year. We should make peaceful countries in the region an irresistible cash offer to operate decent migrant camps with some prospect of actually making a living there while things are (we hope) sorted out. It would be a very sensible investment.
Thoughtful piece by Tatchell on the balance between tolerating free speech and tolerating bigotry, which I think many here will agree with (still not sure what I think myself):
That's good to hear, as it was a very peculiar decision to bring a case.
AIUI, and as was argued in NI at the time, it was not clear how it was even possible that anyone had been discriminated against at all, since discrimination is against people because of their sexual orientation and it was not clear that the shop knew that their customer was a person, or if so what their orientation was.
Another of those, like the Google Tax Flap, where some campaigners wanted the law to say something different to that which it actually does.
The judge found as a fact that the cake shop owners assumed the customer was gay from the request. It seems an entirely reasonable finding on the face of it.
Markit/CIPS UK Manufacturing PMI UK manufacturing growth accelerates at start of 2016 to 52.9, against market expectations of around 51.4. Excellent news although the share prices remain depressed this morning.
Manufacturing PMIs were generally good around Europe and in Japan, with China, Russia and France struggling:
Spain 55.5 Sweden 55.5 Ireland 54.3 Italy 53.2 UK 52.9 Germany 52.3 Japan 52.3 France 50.0 Russia 49.8 China 48.4
I would say the Germans are struggling as well given the record monetary stimulus from the ECB and how depressed the Euro is vs GBP and USD.
The ECB is playing a beggar-thy-neighbour strategy to jump start EU growth, but only Spain and Ireland are really pushing forwards with it
I think the collapse in the price of oil is benefiting Europe too. Worth remembering that almost all Euopean countries are big energy importers.
My rule of thumb is to take two thirds of the number above 50, and that is probably roughly equivalent to the annual growth rate. So, UK manufacturing production is probably growing at just under 2%, while Spain and Sweden are seeing something in the 3.5-4.0% range.
Edit to add: the PMIs are generally considered the best "forward looking" economic activity indicator.
There has been an issue in the UK where the manufacturing PMI data and the ONS manufacturing index haven't been close to matching up for a year or so. I think the problem lies with the ONS, but it could be that the PMI figures are overstating real growth and the managers are reporting incorrect numbers to Makit for some reason or other.
The EU Commission is ready to say that the number of arrivals to Britain is so high that a four-year ban on benefits should be imposed to deter others.
The landmark concession means Eurocrats led by Commission boss Jean-Claude Juncker are also ready to trigger an “emergency brake” mechanism to put the ban in place
It is the first time that any EU institution has accepted that the UK’s net immigration — now running at 330,000 a year — is too much for our welfare system to cope with.
The poll Plato posted suggests that Rubio is definitely worth a punt, both in Iowa and nationally (if he wins Iowa his odds will change dramatically). Not a huge punt as it's only one poll, but still.
rcs's analysis of what we should do on refugees is really accurate IMO, and pretty much what I've been arguing for over a year. We should make peaceful countries in the region an irresistible cash offer to operate decent migrant camps with some prospect of actually making a living there while things are (we hope) sorted out. It would be a very sensible investment.
Thoughtful piece by Tatchell on the balance between tolerating free speech and tolerating bigotry, which I think many here will agree with (still not sure what I think myself):
That's good to hear, as it was a very peculiar decision to bring a case.
AIUI, and as was argued in NI at the time, it was not clear how it was even possible that anyone had been discriminated against at all, since discrimination is against people because of their sexual orientation and it was not clear that the shop knew that their customer was a person, or if so what their orientation was.
Another of those, like the Google Tax Flap, where some campaigners wanted the law to say something different to that which it actually does.
The judge found as a fact that the cake shop owners assumed the customer was gay from the request. It seems an entirely reasonable finding on the face of it.
Would the baker have made a non-political cake for the same person? If the answer is yes then it's not discrimination. Or would the baker have made a cake with the same slogan for a straight person who wanted to gift the cake? If the answer is no, then it's not discrimination. That is just common sense, the law, however, doesn't take common sense into account so I have no idea what the legal position would be on these scenarios.
The poll Plato posted suggests that Rubio is definitely worth a punt, both in Iowa and nationally (if he wins Iowa his odds will change dramatically). Not a huge punt as it's only one poll, but still.
rcs's analysis of what we should do on refugees is really accurate IMO, and pretty much what I've been arguing for over a year. We should make peaceful countries in the region an irresistible cash offer to operate decent migrant camps with some prospect of actually making a living there while things are (we hope) sorted out. It would be a very sensible investment.
Thoughtful piece by Tatchell on the balance between tolerating free speech and tolerating bigotry, which I think many here will agree with (still not sure what I think myself):
That's good to hear, as it was a very peculiar decision to bring a case.
AIUI, and as was argued in NI at the time, it was not clear how it was even possible that anyone had been discriminated against at all, since discrimination is against people because of their sexual orientation and it was not clear that the shop knew that their customer was a person, or if so what their orientation was.
Another of those, like the Google Tax Flap, where some campaigners wanted the law to say something different to that which it actually does.
The judge found as a fact that the cake shop owners assumed the customer was gay from the request. It seems an entirely reasonable finding on the face of it.
Thank-you for that. I find the Judge's ruling a little entrepreneurial.
Comments
Mr. Pulpstar, quite. One True Voice is a false prophet.
In the early 1970s, there was an influential paper written for the UK government about the Republic of Ireland would get progressively and permanently poorer. Their culture, which involved unbending obedience to the Catholic Church, meant that commerce and science could not prosper as it did in Protestant Northern Europe.
It didn't work out like that.
Anyway, The point I'm making is this:
People respond to incentives.
We have the wrong incentives.
rcs's analysis of what we should do on refugees is really accurate IMO, and pretty much what I've been arguing for over a year. We should make peaceful countries in the region an irresistible cash offer to operate decent migrant camps with some prospect of actually making a living there while things are (we hope) sorted out. It would be a very sensible investment.
Thoughtful piece by Tatchell on the balance between tolerating free speech and tolerating bigotry, which I think many here will agree with (still not sure what I think myself):
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/feb/01/gay-cake-row-i-changed-my-mind-ashers-bakery-freedom-of-conscience-religion
The road to hell, an' all that...
But it isn't, because as another poster has noted this essentially means a return to colonisation, which is just not going to happen.
You can try spending money (and it would take a lot, not loose change) to radically improve the situation in these places but...
How do you ensure it is spent sensibly - unless you spend it?
How do you ensure there are not wars that create refugee issues and wreck economies - unless you govern?
How do you ensure decent legal systems, property rights etc. - unless you impose them?
"He said France, in particular, was unhappy with a British proposal to allow countries outside the eurozone to call a European Council meeting to discuss key issues affecting non-euro members, believing this would amount to a veto."
If Euro countries can override non-Euro countries then Cameron would have failed here I reckon. The ability to call a meeting is a very weak defence.
It didn't work out like that.
Anyway, The point I'm making is this:
People respond to incentives.
We have the wrong incentives.
I think your points about dealing with asylum seeking and migration are sound enough. I see that Austria is starting to deport migrants and Germany following suit (Times report)
We're trying to create Singapore or Hong Kong in the region. Somewhere aspirational where the rule of law is paramount, and people can make money.
Rent 10 plots of 200 square miles, each with good access to the coast. Try 10 different systems. Experiment. One of the 10 will get it right.
I've noticed the GOP Establishment, no not the old Establishment of Northeastern WASPs like Nelson Rockefeller, but the professional and ideological class: the lobbyists, donors, consultants and party bureaucrats, and the elected officials they support, whose primary objective is to get Republicans into office, with little concern for ideology, are moving to Trump.
Three Reasons.
1) Electability: As I noted, above all, the GOP Establishment is invested in having a Republican president. While most of the Establishment believes the Hispanic vote nonsense, they do see that Trump is bringing in previously disaffected white working class voters. As Senator Orrin Hatch noted: “For us to win, we have to appeal the moderates and independents. We can’t just act like that only one point of view is the only way to go. That’s where Ted is going to have some trouble.” Trump, in contrast is doing well among moderate GOP voters and working class voters. Hatch said “I’ve come around a little bit on Trump.” He said. “I’m not so sure we’d lose if he’s our nominee because he’s appealing to people who a lot of the Republican candidates have not appealed to in the past.”
2) Someone the GOP Establishment can work with. Bob Dole said: “He’s got the right personality and he’s kind of a deal-maker.” Craig Shirley, quoted in U.S. News & World Report, said: “Ultimately, the Washington establishment deep down—although they find Trump tacky or distasteful—they think that they ultimately can work with him.”
3) Party Infrastructure. Lobbyist Richard Hohlt told the New York Times’ Martin, “Do they all love Trump? No. But there’s a feeling that he is not going to layer over the party or install his own person. Whereas Cruz will have his own people there.” They get to keep their jobs.
Of course the shrill neocon voices in the media won't change but the GOP is beginning to rally round Trump.
Not sure about Iowa not being a good predictor for Democrats. You have to go back to 1992 to find an Iowa winner who didn't go on to take the nomination. In that year someone called Clinton only got 3% in Iowa.
Yougov
% of a parties voters who voted for them #GE2015 will vote for them again today
CON 87%
LAB 82%
UKIP 82%
LD 63%
Can understand Iraqis and Afghans wanting out, though.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/zimbabwe/12130968/White-Zimbabwean-farmer-frogmarched-from-farm-after-claim-by-British-doctor.html
Miss Plato, that, and the 8% [of Lib Dem voters] who reckoned the Lib Dems had the best team to lead the country, makes me wonder if the yellows will go backwards in 2020.
The Turkish government has done nothing to stop the flow of refugees and the Greek Euro-Communists continue to wave them through.
Also, locals, to a greater or lesser extent, will make the Crusade comparison, regardless of intentions.
I don't personally think that reviving Colonialism is going to work in any region, perhaps least of all Syria/the Levant. Apart from anything else, it would take hundreds of thousands of troops, thousands of administrators, thousands of civil contractors, blah, blah, etc, etc.
And as we know only too well, that ain't gonna happen.
Must admit though, it will take a while to elininate all the toxic effects of coalition.
Prediction for #GE2020 if the boundary changes are implemented, Yeouch!!! https://t.co/NRgabZtWjY
How many MPs? How many MPs that don't behave like Independents?
How may councillors gained/lost since the GE?
And, Mr D, I used that excuse for years. All went wrong after 2010, though!
There have been a few polls since the start of a year, showing a broadly unchanged position. In the latest one, Labour were up a little at 10%, which is the crucial number at which they should begin to hold a useful number of seats; below that vote share, they would be in very big trouble indeed. Other recent polls have been less good for them. Overall, I still think a Fine Gael/Labour coalition remains the most likely outcome (quite possibly as a minority government), with a Fine Gael minority government as the next most likely. The bookies' favourite of an FG/FF coalition looks politically impractical to me.
Details of the latest poll (with seat projections) here:
http://adriankavanaghelections.org/2016/01/30/labouring-back-into-contention-constituency-level-analysis-of-the-sunday-business-post-red-c-opinion-poll-31st-january-2016/
The remainder of what he owns of Trump tower is mortgaged. Other prestigious buildings he has on leasehold. Other projects he merely gets a commission for use of his name. He sells endorsements (go figure). He has mortgages on other properties. He is worth a bob or two but how much of it is in the bank as ready money to be burned on the campaign trail is debatable.
Plenty of Trump hostages to fortune this morning. Here's the thing. Maybe, just maybe, Americans WANT muslims banned, illegals expelled and a giant wall built. We will soon find out.
Shits like him shouldn't be welcome here.
Or maybe the seven dwarves all end up on around 8%, and Trump saunters to the nomination with Cruz in his wake.
I wonder if the Americans have a 'shy' factor like we do here. You might not admit you were going to vote for certain Repub candidates to a pollster, maybe.
The lib dems in the end just ran away from the scary notion of government and pissed on their own USP, coalitions.
Last 10 Iowa Republican polls via @pollsterpolls.
Latest odds:
1/2 Trump
2/1 Cruz
8/1 Rubio https://t.co/kQCePmIyET
Markit/CIPS UK Manufacturing PMI
UK manufacturing growth accelerates at start of 2016 to 52.9, against market expectations of around 51.4.
Excellent news although the share prices remain depressed this morning.
http://www.iowacaucus.biz/ia_caucus_howitworks.html
Step 2 - At the individual Republican caucus meetings, a straw poll is taken by secret ballot to influence the delegate.
Didn't Pantdowns score one, while even Mr Cleggover claimed to have scored 30?
The nypost lists a dozen for JFK without breaking sweat: http://nypost.com/2013/11/10/all-the-presidents-women-3/
Ah. Powerful men and their activities.
Basically Markit surveys 10,000+ companies around the world and asks them:
- what did sales do last month
- what did orders do last month
- what is the order outlook
- what is your employment outlook
There is a very high correlation between PMI responses and GDP data. The difference is that PMIs come out a long time before GDP figures.
The evidence, so far, is that there is no "contagion" from China to Europe. We shall see this afternoon, if December was a blip for the US economy or whether it continues to slow.
Edit to add: the PMIs are generally considered the best "forward looking" economic activity indicator.
AIUI, and as was argued in NI at the time, it was not clear how it was even possible that anyone had been discriminated against at all, since discrimination is against people because of their sexual orientation and it was not clear that the shop knew that their customer was a person, or if so what their orientation was.
Another of those, like the Google Tax Flap, where some campaigners wanted the law to say something different to that which it actually does.
The ECB is playing a beggar-thy-neighbour strategy to jump start EU growth, but only Spain and Ireland are really pushing forwards with it