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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Leave could be making the same mistake Labour made at the 2015 General Election
In the most recent electoral events in the United Kingdom, the Scottish Independence referendum and the 2015 general election, the side that won was the side that the voters viewed as the one that was the safest/best option for the economy.
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Islamic State video threatens Britain with "doomsday" attack to "turn children's hair white (end of days reference)." Be alert, not alarmed
Censoring opinion doesn't change it.
Lawson secretly shadowed the Deutsche Mark and the ERM. His credentials on Europe are a bit mixed.
Quite. In fact, didn't he actually resign in protest at Thatcher's Euroscepticism? (or am I misremembering?)
Lawson would alienate many more than working-class Labour voters. His views on many topics do not sit well with vast swathes of the population.
He would be a toxic choice.
What I like about Lammy is that he's actually talked about these sorts of issues many times before, when others ignore it and look for simple instinctive answers.
What I dislike about him is the papal smoke idiocy; his performance on Mastermind means little IMO except a little amusement. The papal smoke thing was more worrying.
I wish I hadn't given my copy of his book away; I would like to remind myself of what I agreed and disagreed with it.
Bottom line:
"If these two things persist – a crisis-free and modestly growing eurozone and heightened levels of consumer confidence in Britain – the leave campaign will have its work cut out in trying to persuade voters that change is either necessary or desirable."
I agree with this. What Leave needs is another Greek style melt down. Not impossible and a reason why we might be having this referendum sooner rather than later.
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2015/01/08/chuka-umunna-ukip-busiiness_n_6437270.html
Dan Jarvis has generally voted for more EU integration
http://www.theyworkforyou.com/mp/25067/dan_jarvis/barnsley_central/divisions?policy=1065
In terms of who people voted for at the GE compared to how they vote in the referendum, Cameron probably has the least retention %
Not sure if you can really build an argument on the above party leader figures. None of them inspire to be honest and Cameron's satisfaction and dissatisfaction figures are highest because he's been around the longest.
As I said yesterday, is there a senior Conservative with the courage to publicly oppose Cameron's recommendation to REMAIN (assuming that's what it will be) and argue for LEAVE ?. That individual would be the de facto leader of LEAVE and would jump into the spotlight but it's a high-risk strategy. If LEAVE wins, that person will probably be the next Prime Minister assuming Cameron doesn't do a Boris and decide, after all, he will serve a full second term. If REMAIN wins, that person becomes leader of a minority faction.
Cameron has the invaluable "Trust Me" as his main weapon but I believe anti-EU feeling is strongest among the core Conservative vote (the elderly) so it may not have the same impact as similar messages had in the GE.
@charlotteahenry: Uh oh. Eagle eyed hacks @IsabelHardman and @craigawoodhouse noticed @johnmcdonnellMP's earnings on tax return less than MPs salary.
Labour has learned from the Scottish referendum and Corbyn and Cameron won't be sharing any platforms - I don't think it's in Remain's interest that they should. The risk for Remain is that Labour voters don't necessarily care enough to bother to vote, especially if it's portrayed as a vote of confidence in Cameron.
I cannot say I have much of a high opinion of the legal profession anyway.
So far, both Leave and Remain seem to be relentlessly negative. Leave in particular needs to present a route to the sunlit uplands rather than banging on about invading hordes of subsidy-crazed French farmers.
All the people pushing this also better hope that they have never ever ever done anything that was "tax efficient" and to be perfectly frank if they haven't they are completely numpties.
You are misrembering. Blair and Brown are the only occupants of Downing Street who ever had a cross word. Lawson's main beef was Mrs Thatcher's public reliance on Sir Alan Walters (and in the end, they both had to go).
Stephen Bush @stephenkb 13m13 minutes ago
John McDonnell has done a lot more telly recently, and he's getting pretty good at it. Has also been visiting a lot of local parties.
He would be a toxic choice.
I am not particularly disagreeing with you, however at least someone like Lawson might actually engage with a proper considered argument instead of slipping into the knee jerk BNPlite stance of UKIP and all its fellow travellers.
The EU can clearly be criticised and clearly should be reformed, the question is what is the most sensible and least stupid decision and direction for it and us to take. For my part I find the attitudes currently being unleashed by the leavers are toxic.
Pension contributions ?
Danny Blanchflower in Newstatesman:
"The new Labour leaders are not economists and are going to have to learn fast. They will have to accept the realities of capitalism and modern markets, like it or not. No more silly stuff about companies not being able to pay dividends if they don’t do X or Y."
Women protesting the forced Hijab in Iran, days after the 1979 Revolution. https://t.co/XlRBPplsOa
What is really worrying is that a school that only achieved 17% of pupils getting 5 a*-c grades is believed by ofsted to only need improvement when Special measures is clearly what is required...
Now wish we luck with American airport security. I have to American airport security 4 times in the next few days.
This will not end well.
No & No
Euan MacLennan | Mon, 23/07/2012 - 18:13 | Permalink
No - you do not show any salary sacrifice separately. You show the gross pay from his P60, which will be after the sacrifice.
I've been waiting my whole life for this referendum, a chance to regain self-governance for our country, and we're throwing it away.
Both Leave campaigns are in disarray, and fighting each other, and no serious Conservative is willing to bravely show leadership on the matter. Instead, one by one, they are sheepishly declaring for Remain.
In addition, the scare and fearmongering is clearly having an effect on a few of our regulars who are *inclined* to vote Leave.
I never thought it would be like this. And am deeply dissappointed about my own party.
Lots to think about.
I suspect it may not be a high proportion.
"I want peace and prosperity for the whole world'
Miss John McDonnell, UK entrant for Miss World. https://t.co/RRA5ZILtl2L
As others have said, the difference is almost certainly pension contributions
People should never be expected to reveal their finances in public.
Also, in the end, it could come down to turnout - if Leave voters are more keen, and Remain voters are complacent/not fussed, then Leave could edge it even if in the polls they are slightly behind.
Glad I gave it a miss. Djokovic in amazing form.
Otherwise it looks like being evasive.
And, of course, the story has moved on to being about him - rather than Osborne.
He really isn't good at political stunts
Both sides of the campaign seem so incompetent they should not be allowed to run a whelk stall, yet alone a campaign about who should run the country.
But in terms of PR / leafleting, remain seem to be more in charge. Sadly.
The defaults that are coming are not from peripheral Europe, but from oil producing countries.
http://www.lrb.co.uk/v38/n03/joost-hiltermann/chemical-wonders
That alone is enough for me to vote out. I know we are not going to win but I can stand there honestly and say I tried to save my country. It should be remembered when we are inundated with EU demands starting from day 1 after the referendum is held. They will move fast ...very fast and you can kiss goodbye to the pound currency , the national anthem and any freedom we have. It will be decided in Brussels by faceless unelected bureaucrats. All for the socialist collective good of course and the only way socialists stand a chance of getting any power in this country
We have but one opportunity to stop it...we should not waste it.
Vote leave.