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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Trump’s big pre-Iowa gamble: pulling out of Thursday’s TV debate in ongoing row with Fox News
The big overnight WH2016 news is that Donald Trump has pulled out of the final TV debate before voting actually starts in the elongated process to choose the party nominees
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Trump sticks two fingers up to Fox and their stupid ratings war – shouldn’t do him any harm.
Will it hurt Trump? No doubt after the debate, news reporters (television and print) will give Trump the chance to refute any attacks on him.
http://blog.dilbert.com/post/138125409321/trump-fox-news-and-megyn-kelly-explained-master
He just set out what he wanted to do and pretty much stuck to it - and of course the position of an incumbent is usually much more powerful than any candidate.....
No idea how this will affect Trump, do we know how women respond to him?
*Cough* - was it really just four days ago when I tipped her at 200/1 to win SPOTY 2016?
Note the important things here:-
1) Trump will be in Iowa
2) Trump will be raising money for a charity not himself....
No matter what anyone says at the debate. Attacking him for not being there when he is at a prior charity engagement raising money for others won't go down well..
Newdpaper endorsements for Kasich in New Hampshire
It does bring up the woman thing again though. He has to be careful about that, especially if one is likely to be his ultimate opponent.
I like this. The last three sentences are sad but true:
"At about halftime of the debate you might see Trump say it is too boring to watch and sign off for the night. That gives you a data point to see if viewership drops off around then. And it probably would, no matter what he tweets, simply because the novelty of him NOT being there will wear off. Then all you have is a real debate about the real issues. No one wants that. We have better things to do."
I also really like this summing up of Trump:
"People keep asking me to demonstrate my lack of bias by pointing out some of Trump’s mistakes. The problem is that Trump has a skill set that absorbs mistakes and turns them into whatever he wants them to be. That’s his system."
It seems risky to me. There are several possible lines for rivals at the debate:
- Attack him for using any excuse to avoid challenge, "complacent front-runner"
- Attack him for feebleness. "If you're worried about Kelly asking you awkward questions, how are you going to handle Putin?"
- Attack him for flakiness. "This is just the latest of his weird decisions. Do we want a flaky President?"
- Ignore him
All these lines could fail, but he won't be there to counter any of them. The rivals will be trying them all out on focus groups right now.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/08/28/ron-paul-republican-convention_n_1837556.html
http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/jan/26/donald-trump-boycott-fox-news-republican-debate
Doubt this'll harm Trump. Didn't harm Cameron, and there were fewer debates over here.
Welcome to pb.com, Mr. Christian.
Mr. Putney, couldn't back at quite those odds, but there's still 50/1 at Ladbrokes. Konta's up against Kerber next.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/27/us/politics/iowa-caucus-bush-carson-fiorina.html?_r=1&mtrref=undefined
That's all there is to it.
If there is a backlash in Iowa it will mean Cruz narrowly pips him, as this is now a differentiating point between the two.
It's all about the Donald, but Cruz is at a great price on Betfair at over 8-1. Top up now if you aren't already chock full, it'll crash after Iowa if he wins.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/germany/12122998/Cologne-sex-attacks-Safe-zone-for-women-planned-ahead-of-citys-carnival.html
That suggests the authorities are admitting there are going to be "unsafe" zones for women that they can't fully control.
.....
Hard to say how accurate this story is (beyond the filmed interruption) but it's said a professor faces legal consequences over this intervention when Merkel's speaking.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R8fmg86zsTY
The Fox 'question master' is a woman isn't it. That should inform you better.
And the decision comes after seeking the advice of his Twitter followers .... sounds a bit Corbynish to me.
What on earth was both Clegg and Miliband's up to when they decided to allow the format proposed by the PM's team?
Insisting on the Greens, SNP, Plaid Cymru and UKIP share the platform with the three main leaders allowed Cameron to stand apart as a reasonable man doing a reasonable job, in the interests of the whole of the nation, and Miliband looking totally isolated and utterly outflanked by Sturgeon.
You seem to be concerned about Trump, that increases my interest.
A. The others rip chunks out of each other; or
B. They collectively rip chunks out of Trump
If it's A then Trump just laughs. If it's B then he reinforces his image as the insurgency anti establishment stitch up candidate. Looks like a win/win to me.
It may be the opportunity Rubio needs.
But, if they do your A or B, then I agree it's Trumptastic.
What did stand out for me, more so than before, was how big his potential weakness with women is. That's why I was asking last night whether he'd got into any heated arguments with Fiorina during the debates, which it seems he didn't. Had he done so, it might have given us an idea as to what he'd be like if he's up against Hillary, which I think has the potential for him to score some big own goals: he is rude and sexist. Politics is of course a rough trade but there are limits as to what's fair game and I think the public has a better sense of that than he does.
Having said that, he clearly has a large, vocal and enthusiastic support base. It's support for slogans rather than thought-out policy but you campaign in poetry and govern in prose; this he gets.
If the documentary is available on line then I'd recommend it if you have a spare 45 minutes. Even if it is a hatchet job (and as I say, I think that's a bit unfair), it'll give a good indication of the negative campaigning he'll be up against.
I would not be surprised to be fired for doing that. The term 'legal action' might be referring to civil redress for the damage he has inflicted on the institution.
He has a fair point, but that wasnt the place to raise it.
Assuming that Fox News will fall behind him in a Clinton-Trump match up is probably a good bet (unless Uncle Rupert says otherwise).
Also you were pleased that Corbyn was elected leader of Labour.
Sounds like you're a bit of an anarchist, the more chaos the better?
http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/eu-referendum-labour-mp-david-lammy-claims-indian-soldiers-ww2-died-european-project-1540182
http://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-eu-35413134
Look out for Woolfe’s incredulous reply: “Did you just say they fought for the European Project?” Pretty sure they were fighting against the only major “European project” of the time…
The Law Society of Scotland, which in a report pitched at all the parties ahead of the Holyrood elections in May, says that the free tuition policy has contributed to what it calls a resource transfer from low-income to high-income households. It also points out that the government is doing this at a time when access to university for the poorest is already pitiful in Scotland – much worse in fact than it is anywhere else in the UK.
http://www.heraldscotland.com/opinion/14231924.The_SNP_must_learn_to_listen_on_tuition_fees/
This is a big problem for Remain, who claim on here that the Leave campaign is dishevelled. They have a point, but in comparison to Lammy's nonsense they are completely on message.
He's demonstrated this again and again. How he's Oxbridge material perplexes me.
Salmond told Channel 4 last night that he had two tickets to Antarctica in case Trump wins, as nuclear fall-out will take a long time to reach the frozen south. Personally, I will settle for a shelter in the garden.
I hope the Americans elect the best candidate, but you hope they elect Trump. You were also glad that Corbyn was elected. Sorry, you may not want chaos or think of yourself as an anarchist, but that's what you are wishing for. Look at Corbyn's Labour Party for an example.
(What wouldn't we give for a politician as talented as Merkel here)
I think he is narrow-minded though. Like many intelligent people, he has in-depth knowledge of a narrow area and vast gaps in his useful knowledge outside that area. Yet because they have in-depth knowledge of that narrow area, it's easy for them to think they know have similar in-depth knowledge outside it, and have authoritative views on those areas as well.
The lack of self-awareness is quite dangerous.
Hence the hilarious mistake he made over the colour of the smoke over the pope's conclave ...
From what I gather he's a good constituency MP but to me it shows the fragility of the Remain arguments when he starts talking of Indian soldiers in WW2. The Remainers on here will be shaking their heads in disbelief.
Btw, Woolf is a top man, always calm and dignified.
PBTories. Always right.
I was a young teen IIRC and fascinated, despite being an atheist.
Making that stupidly ignorant claim of racism just showed the prism of Lammy's world view.
What do you think ?
The debate is now online: https://hansard.digiminster.com/commons/2016-01-25/debates/1601256000001/SmallBusinessesTaxReporting
Stereotypes aside he's a decent, measured bloke.
@ICMResearch weekly #euref tracker. Bremain 41%, Leave 41% DK 18%. = 50:50. Four consecutive falls for Bremain to lowest score in tracker.
Dundee is the only one of these ten local authority areas getting the biggest cuts which is under SNP control. https://t.co/TuKESbNwZf
I've no idea why you think I'm an anarchist.
Leaders often have one moment, one event or decision, that encapsulates their time in power.
Thatcher's historic moment was probably the Falklands. Major's was his resignation against the bastards. Blair's was the Gulf War. Brown's may well be Duffy. Cameron's will probably be the EU referendum or, if his side wins, the 2015 GE.
Merkel's may well be her decision last year,
I'm sure this will damage Trump as much as Cameron's failure to take on Miliband mano e mano in an election debate.