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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Trump could be unstoppable if he wins Iowa next Monday

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  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,192
    SeanT said:

    Anyone else seen The Big Short?

    It's a brilliant, funny movie about The Kredit Krunch.

    Miles better than Revenant. Recommended. Heartily.


    Yep. I said on here it was a corker, so much better than Wolf of Wall Street. The faux documentary style works so well. Bubble bath and all....
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,024
    rcs1000 said:

    Don't Google the questions boys and girls:

    Which country has the longest land borders in the world?

    US/Canada?
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,229
    SeanT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Don't Google the questions boys and girls:

    Which country has the longest land borders in the world?

    Without Googling - Brazil?
    Nope
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,229
    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Don't Google the questions boys and girls:

    Which country has the longest land borders in the world?

    US/Canada?
    Nope
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,218
    Quinnipiac Iowa Caucuses

    Trump 31
    Cruz 29
    Rubio 13
    Carson 7
    Paul 5
    Bush 4
    Christie 3
    Huckabee 2
    Kasich 1
    Fiorina 1
    Santorum 0

    Caucused previously

    Cruz 31%
    Trump 28%

    First Caucus

    Trump 38%
    Cruz 25%
    http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/iowa/release-detail?ReleaseID=2318
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,024
    edited January 2016
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Don't Google the questions boys and girls:

    Which country has the longest land borders in the world?

    US/Canada?
    Nope
    PeruChile/Argentina?
  • Options
    richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    The Big Short ..watched it twice and may have another go..brilliant
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    CD13CD13 Posts: 6,352
    It's dated now but it could be updated for President Trump.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O7eCUEfb7U0
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,192
    Hmmmm.... Surprising Fact of the Day: The European Union has a 673 km border with Brazil.

    So we are a bit buggered trying to keep out Zika....
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,059
    Watching the Liverpool vs Stoke match... you'd have thought home fans would be sharp enough to go "shhhhhhh" when the away supporters chant "Is this a library?" wouldn't you?
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,229
    SeanT said:

    Actually this must be a trick question, because it has to be Russia, and if it isn't Russia it's some country that claims half the moon or Antarctica or something

    It really isn't. China has the longest land border. See: http://chartsbin.com/view/mp2
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,024
    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Don't Google the questions boys and girls:

    Which country has the longest land borders in the world?

    I'd have thought Russia would just edge it over China ?
    It's not Russia
    So it's China then!

  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,218
    CNN GOP national

    Trump 41%
    Cruz 19%
    Rubio 8%
    Carson 6%
    Bush 5%

    General election

    Clinton 48%
    Trump 47%

    Clinton 47%
    Rubio 50%

    Clinton 47%
    Cruz 50%


    Sanders 50%
    Trump 47%

    Sanders 49%
    Rubio 48%

    Sanders 50%
    Cruz 47%
    http://edition.cnn.com/2016/01/26/politics/poll-republicans-results-cnn-orc/index.html
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,229

    Hmmmm.... Surprising Fact of the Day: The European Union has a 673 km border with Brazil.

    So we are a bit buggered trying to keep out Zika....

    That will be a part of colonial France, I guess.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_Guiana
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,022
    SeanT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    SeanT said:

    Actually this must be a trick question, because it has to be Russia, and if it isn't Russia it's some country that claims half the moon or Antarctica or something

    It really isn't. China has the longest land border. See: http://chartsbin.com/view/mp2
    I guess that makes sense, cause China curls around. North, West, and South all have frontiers.

    I like Cuba's 29km land border: Guantanamo
    However Cuba isn't listed under the US.

    Also doesn't list our border with Cyprus.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,192
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Anyone else seen The Big Short?

    It's a brilliant, funny movie about The Kredit Krunch.

    Miles better than Revenant. Recommended. Heartily.


    Yep. I said on here it was a corker, so much better than Wolf of Wall Street. The faux documentary style works so well. Bubble bath and all....
    I really rather liked Wolf of Wall St, but I don't think you can compare them. One is cod-docudrama, the other is straight drama.

    Two brilliant performances in The Big Short: Bale and Carrell. Both better than Di Caprio (but only Bale is nommed, Carrell was snubbed: tut tut)
    Brad Pitt is quite good too.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,028
    First Direct seem to be offering loans of up to £25k at 3.4%. With Jeb Bush at 10.0, it's tempting...
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,229
    SeanT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Hmmmm.... Surprising Fact of the Day: The European Union has a 673 km border with Brazil.

    So we are a bit buggered trying to keep out Zika....

    That will be a part of colonial France, I guess.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_Guiana
    French Guiana is wholly part of France - an overseas department - therefore legally part of the EU.
    SeanT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Hmmmm.... Surprising Fact of the Day: The European Union has a 673 km border with Brazil.

    So we are a bit buggered trying to keep out Zika....

    That will be a part of colonial France, I guess.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_Guiana
    French Guiana is wholly part of France - an overseas department - therefore legally part of the EU.
    Did you know that a quite disturbing proportion of French international footballers come from the tiny department of Guadeloupe?
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,192
    RobD said:

    SeanT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    SeanT said:

    Actually this must be a trick question, because it has to be Russia, and if it isn't Russia it's some country that claims half the moon or Antarctica or something

    It really isn't. China has the longest land border. See: http://chartsbin.com/view/mp2
    I guess that makes sense, cause China curls around. North, West, and South all have frontiers.

    I like Cuba's 29km land border: Guantanamo
    However Cuba isn't listed under the US.

    Also doesn't list our border with Cyprus.
    Listed by Wiki under "Akrotiri and Dhekelia" - 152 km with Cyprus.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,229
    SeanT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    SeanT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Hmmmm.... Surprising Fact of the Day: The European Union has a 673 km border with Brazil.

    So we are a bit buggered trying to keep out Zika....

    That will be a part of colonial France, I guess.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_Guiana
    French Guiana is wholly part of France - an overseas department - therefore legally part of the EU.
    SeanT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Hmmmm.... Surprising Fact of the Day: The European Union has a 673 km border with Brazil.

    So we are a bit buggered trying to keep out Zika....

    That will be a part of colonial France, I guess.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_Guiana
    French Guiana is wholly part of France - an overseas department - therefore legally part of the EU.
    Did you know that a quite disturbing proportion of French international footballers come from the tiny department of Guadeloupe?
    I didn't.

    I hope they are more cheerful than the good people of Martinique. Jesus what a dump. Surly and haughty, in that French way, with an added aggression, in that African-in-a-bad-mood way. A subsidised tropical toilet with surprisingly crap food.

    The ex British Caribbean colonies are much friendlier.
    If you were living in the Caribbean, and forced to use the Euro, you'd be pretty miserable too.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,024
    Is @TSE at Anfeld again?
  • Options
    Sandpit said:

    Is @TSE at Anfeld again?

    Yes
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Stoke can't be much good. We put four past this lot.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Every time I log-in to Betfair there's another splodge of cash that some persons have placed down trying to back Jeb at 9/1 (or 10.0 ) - I took almost half of it yesterday, and there's over £200 available now.

    I simply can't mop any more of it up.

    It is things like this that make me feel that I don't have a clue about political betting. Those odds are insane and I simply can't see a 9/1 path for Bush, I wouldn't back him at 20/1. But I accept I not omnipotent so maybe I'm wrong and the lunatic with the cash is right?
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,024

    Sandpit said:

    Is @TSE at Anfeld again?

    Yes
    He is a curse on Liverpool! I think he's been there half a dozen times this season and hasn't seen them win yet! From the replay of the goal it looks like the lineman is from Stoke too.
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    HYUFD said:

    CNN GOP national

    Trump 41%
    Cruz 19%
    Rubio 8%
    Carson 6%
    Bush 5%

    General election

    Clinton 48%
    Trump 47%

    Clinton 47%
    Rubio 50%

    Clinton 47%
    Cruz 50%


    Sanders 50%
    Trump 47%

    Sanders 49%
    Rubio 48%

    Sanders 50%
    Cruz 47%
    http://edition.cnn.com/2016/01/26/politics/poll-republicans-results-cnn-orc/index.html

    According to their demographic breakdown they polled noone between the ages of 18-34.

    ORC are a gobsmaking polling firm
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,059
    edited January 2016
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Is @TSE at Anfeld again?

    Yes
    He is a curse on Liverpool! I think he's been there half a dozen times this season and hasn't seen them win yet! From the replay of the goal it looks like the lineman is from Stoke too.
    I thought he tipped Exeter on that basis last week?

    They never win when he goes, except when they do
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited January 2016
    Just put £10 on Liverpool to come from behind at 5.4...
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,024
    isam said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Is @TSE at Anfeld again?

    Yes
    He is a curse on Liverpool! I think he's been there half a dozen times this season and hasn't seen them win yet! From the replay of the goal it looks like the lineman is from Stoke too.
    I thought he tipped Exeter on that basis last week?

    They never win when he goes, except when they do
    Ah yes, he saw them beat a fourth division side!
    I did suggest earlier to him that he might want to consider not attending, for the sake of his team.
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,960
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Anyone else seen The Big Short?

    It's a brilliant, funny movie about The Kredit Krunch.

    Miles better than Revenant. Recommended. Heartily.


    Yep. I said on here it was a corker, so much better than Wolf of Wall Street. The faux documentary style works so well. Bubble bath and all....
    I really rather liked Wolf of Wall St, but I don't think you can compare them. One is cod-docudrama, the other is straight drama.

    Two brilliant performances in The Big Short: Bale and Carrell. Both better than Di Caprio (but only Bale is nommed, Carrell was snubbed: tut tut)
    Agreed. Carrell's was a better all round part AND he played it better than Bale. Disappointing.
  • Options
    Alistair said:

    Every time I log-in to Betfair there's another splodge of cash that some persons have placed down trying to back Jeb at 9/1 (or 10.0 ) - I took almost half of it yesterday, and there's over £200 available now.

    I simply can't mop any more of it up.

    It is things like this that make me feel that I don't have a clue about political betting. Those odds are insane and I simply can't see a 9/1 path for Bush, I wouldn't back him at 20/1. But I accept I not omnipotent so maybe I'm wrong and the lunatic with the cash is right?
    It's someone who laid him at 3s, with the patience of a saint and a desire to get every last penny.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    HYUFD said:

    CNN GOP national

    Trump 41%
    Cruz 19%
    Rubio 8%
    Carson 6%
    Bush 5%

    General election

    Clinton 48%
    Trump 47%

    Clinton 47%
    Rubio 50%

    Clinton 47%
    Cruz 50%


    Sanders 50%
    Trump 47%

    Sanders 49%
    Rubio 48%

    Sanders 50%
    Cruz 47%
    http://edition.cnn.com/2016/01/26/politics/poll-republicans-results-cnn-orc/index.html

    It's difficult to believe a poll putting Cruz 3 points ahead of Clinton. Just can't see that happening in the real world.
  • Options
    Alistair said:

    It is things like this that make me feel that I don't have a clue about political betting. Those odds are insane and I simply can't see a 9/1 path for Bush, I wouldn't back him at 20/1. But I accept I not omnipotent so maybe I'm wrong and the lunatic with the cash is right?

    Sounds to me that you're rather good at political betting (including, most importantly, accepting you might be wrong).

    FWIW I think you're probably right on this one.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,028
    Zac's faceboo0k has reminded me it is:

    100 days to payday the mayoral election
  • Options
    Pulpstar said:

    Zac's faceboo0k has reminded me it is:

    100 days to payday the mayoral election

    Ah yes. I think I'm fairly evenly green on both of them.

    Maybe I shouldn't be.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @bbclaurak: Cameron at Goldsmith rally tonight - if London voters choose Sadiq they'll be "lab rats in the the first Corbyn economic experiment"
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,022
    Pulpstar said:

    Zac's faceboo0k has reminded me it is:

    100 days to payday the mayoral election

    100 days to save the mayoralty.

    Do we have any recent polls on the race?
  • Options
    rcs1000 said:

    Don't Google the questions boys and girls:

    Which country has the longest land borders in the world?

    Norway?
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,059

    Pulpstar said:

    Zac's faceboo0k has reminded me it is:

    100 days to payday the mayoral election

    Ah yes. I think I'm fairly evenly green on both of them.

    Maybe I shouldn't be.
    I win exactly the same amount whichever of them is elected
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @alexmassie: The stuff in brackets is the opposite of "helping". https://t.co/2m8ef8mkks https://t.co/oJf9liigTK
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,218
    Mortimer said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Anyone else seen The Big Short?

    It's a brilliant, funny movie about The Kredit Krunch.

    Miles better than Revenant. Recommended. Heartily.


    Yep. I said on here it was a corker, so much better than Wolf of Wall Street. The faux documentary style works so well. Bubble bath and all....
    I really rather liked Wolf of Wall St, but I don't think you can compare them. One is cod-docudrama, the other is straight drama.

    Two brilliant performances in The Big Short: Bale and Carrell. Both better than Di Caprio (but only Bale is nommed, Carrell was snubbed: tut tut)
    Agreed. Carrell's was a better all round part AND he played it better than Bale. Disappointing.
    Bale already has an Oscar too
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,218
    Matt Frei on Trump just started on C4
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    HYUFD said:

    Matt Frei on Trump just started on C4

    I'm guessing the tone of the programme will be that Matt Frei doesn't like Trump much.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,218
    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    CNN GOP national

    Trump 41%
    Cruz 19%
    Rubio 8%
    Carson 6%
    Bush 5%

    General election

    Clinton 48%
    Trump 47%

    Clinton 47%
    Rubio 50%

    Clinton 47%
    Cruz 50%


    Sanders 50%
    Trump 47%

    Sanders 49%
    Rubio 48%

    Sanders 50%
    Cruz 47%
    http://edition.cnn.com/2016/01/26/politics/poll-republicans-results-cnn-orc/index.html

    According to their demographic breakdown they polled noone between the ages of 18-34.

    ORC are a gobsmaking polling firm
    Maybe albeit that demographic has the lowest turnout
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,022
    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    CNN GOP national

    Trump 41%
    Cruz 19%
    Rubio 8%
    Carson 6%
    Bush 5%

    General election

    Clinton 48%
    Trump 47%

    Clinton 47%
    Rubio 50%

    Clinton 47%
    Cruz 50%


    Sanders 50%
    Trump 47%

    Sanders 49%
    Rubio 48%

    Sanders 50%
    Cruz 47%
    http://edition.cnn.com/2016/01/26/politics/poll-republicans-results-cnn-orc/index.html

    According to their demographic breakdown they polled noone between the ages of 18-34.

    ORC are a gobsmaking polling firm
    Maybe albeit that demographic has the lowest turnout
    It certainly isn't zero.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,218
    AndyJS said:

    HYUFD said:

    CNN GOP national

    Trump 41%
    Cruz 19%
    Rubio 8%
    Carson 6%
    Bush 5%

    General election

    Clinton 48%
    Trump 47%

    Clinton 47%
    Rubio 50%

    Clinton 47%
    Cruz 50%


    Sanders 50%
    Trump 47%

    Sanders 49%
    Rubio 48%

    Sanders 50%
    Cruz 47%
    http://edition.cnn.com/2016/01/26/politics/poll-republicans-results-cnn-orc/index.html

    It's difficult to believe a poll putting Cruz 3 points ahead of Clinton. Just can't see that happening in the real world.
    It is consistent, Cruz often polls better than Trump, Sanders is now generally polling better than Clinton
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,160
    @SeanT


    The child knows what the mother fears
    mother be not afraid of death
    mother do not fear dying
    mother I have seen you die
    the child foretelling
    to bear the worst
    nurture fear
    future present
    the winter child
    naughty:nice
    a bleak foretelling
    sleep in heavenly peace
    holy infant so tender and mild
    the bleakest of carols

    bleak child
    bleak carol
    bleak cradling
    bleak mother
    bleak nurture
    bleak present
    bleak tender
    bleak winter
    winter bleak
    winter child
    winter carol
    winter cradling
    winter mother
    winter nurture
    winter present
    winter tender
    mother winter
    all is dark
    all is night
    all is dark in winter
    a mother in winter
    a child in winter
    a cradle in winter
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,022
    viewcode said:

    @SeanT


    SNIP

    I still say calling the kid Roger, and the book Rogerdamus, is the way forward.

  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,812
    Pulpstar said:

    First Direct seem to be offering loans of up to £25k at 3.4%. With Jeb Bush at 10.0, it's tempting...

    It is but I try not to forget the iron law of gambling: never bet what you can't afford to lose.
  • Options
    So Britain's apartheid scandal of painting the front doors of asylum seekers' houses red turned out to be a load of twaddle.

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/01/news-from-todays-select-committee-the-doors-were-painted-red-20-years-ago/

    I am unamazed.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,218
    edited January 2016
    AndyJS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Matt Frei on Trump just started on C4

    I'm guessing the tone of the programme will be that Matt Frei doesn't like Trump much.
    So far pretty balanced, Frei is normally objective and lived in the US for years and understands it well
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,160
    Mortimer said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Anyone else seen The Big Short?

    It's a brilliant, funny movie about The Kredit Krunch.

    Miles better than Revenant. Recommended. Heartily.


    Yep. I said on here it was a corker, so much better than Wolf of Wall Street. The faux documentary style works so well. Bubble bath and all....
    I really rather liked Wolf of Wall St, but I don't think you can compare them. One is cod-docudrama, the other is straight drama.

    Two brilliant performances in The Big Short: Bale and Carrell. Both better than Di Caprio (but only Bale is nommed, Carrell was snubbed: tut tut)
    Agreed. Carrell's was a better all round part AND he played it better than Bale. Disappointing.
    Jim Carrey Syndrome. Jim Carrey has pulled off three oscarworthy performances - "Man in theMoon", "Truman Show" "Eternal Sunshine of the..." - but will never be nominated.
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,160
    RobD said:

    viewcode said:

    @SeanT


    SNIP

    I still say calling the kid Roger, and the book Rogerdamus, is the way forward.

    Rogernomicon? Rogergeddon? Release Roger?

    Pause.

    A Winter Rogering?

  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,812
    Alistair said:

    Every time I log-in to Betfair there's another splodge of cash that some persons have placed down trying to back Jeb at 9/1 (or 10.0 ) - I took almost half of it yesterday, and there's over £200 available now.

    I simply can't mop any more of it up.

    It is things like this that make me feel that I don't have a clue about political betting. Those odds are insane and I simply can't see a 9/1 path for Bush, I wouldn't back him at 20/1. But I accept I not omnipotent so maybe I'm wrong and the lunatic with the cash is right?
    Well, you might be. There are no guarantees and the worst thing that can happen is the worst thing that can happen, hence the iron law of gambling.

    I was dropping phrases like a "hung parliament is a risk-free bet" prior to the election and two of my friends, both of whom have PhDs in maths, took issue. I cockily dismissed their concerns.

    Now, they won't let me forget it.
  • Options
    MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    Alistair said:

    Every time I log-in to Betfair there's another splodge of cash that some persons have placed down trying to back Jeb at 9/1 (or 10.0 ) - I took almost half of it yesterday, and there's over £200 available now.

    I simply can't mop any more of it up.

    It is things like this that make me feel that I don't have a clue about political betting. Those odds are insane and I simply can't see a 9/1 path for Bush, I wouldn't back him at 20/1. But I accept I not omnipotent so maybe I'm wrong and the lunatic with the cash is right?
    Well, you might be. There are no guarantees and the worst thing that can happen is the worst thing that can happen, hence the iron law of gambling.

    I was dropping phrases like a "hung parliament is a risk-free bet" prior to the election and two of my friends, both of whom have PhDs in maths, took issue. I cockily dismissed their concerns.

    Now, they won't let me forget it.
    "risk-free bet"

    No such thing of course.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,229
    By the way, in case anybody hasn't read it, can I recommend Brian Keenan's An Evil Cradling, which be wrote shortly after ceasing to be hostage in Lebanon.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,218
    edited January 2016
    Watching Frei's doc Trump uses his rallies brilliantly, long build up, prayers of thanks for him, rock music and Nessun Dorma, speeches of praise from his fans, then the lights dim and the spotlight focuses on the Messiah entering the arena, reminds me of Nuremberg! He then works the crowd like a pro
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,028
    edited January 2016

    Alistair said:

    Every time I log-in to Betfair there's another splodge of cash that some persons have placed down trying to back Jeb at 9/1 (or 10.0 ) - I took almost half of it yesterday, and there's over £200 available now.

    I simply can't mop any more of it up.

    It is things like this that make me feel that I don't have a clue about political betting. Those odds are insane and I simply can't see a 9/1 path for Bush, I wouldn't back him at 20/1. But I accept I not omnipotent so maybe I'm wrong and the lunatic with the cash is right?
    Well, you might be. There are no guarantees and the worst thing that can happen is the worst thing that can happen, hence the iron law of gambling.

    I was dropping phrases like a "hung parliament is a risk-free bet" prior to the election and two of my friends, both of whom have PhDs in maths, took issue. I cockily dismissed their concerns.

    Now, they won't let me forget it.
    Hmm I never bought into the whole "risk free" hung parliament thing. But the GOP race feels quite different.
    Laying Marco Rubio for instance is great value (I think) but it sure as hell isn't risk free.
  • Options
    notmenotme Posts: 3,293

    So Britain's apartheid scandal of painting the front doors of asylum seekers' houses red turned out to be a load of twaddle.

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/01/news-from-todays-select-committee-the-doors-were-painted-red-20-years-ago/

    I am unamazed.


    I look on the 'scandal' about the wrist bands. I think it allows us to separate the nation into two. Sensible people who think wearing a wrist band to identify you so you can get entitlement to full board for free, is a low tech and practical way to identify an entitlement, and have probably experienced similar things when on all inclusive holidays, these people cross all classes, races and political views.. And then we have the stark raving nutters who seem to believe that this is the most evil thing ever and shows how we are descending into a fascist state. Such people are likely to be Corbyn supporters.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,229
    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    Every time I log-in to Betfair there's another splodge of cash that some persons have placed down trying to back Jeb at 9/1 (or 10.0 ) - I took almost half of it yesterday, and there's over £200 available now.

    I simply can't mop any more of it up.

    It is things like this that make me feel that I don't have a clue about political betting. Those odds are insane and I simply can't see a 9/1 path for Bush, I wouldn't back him at 20/1. But I accept I not omnipotent so maybe I'm wrong and the lunatic with the cash is right?
    Well, you might be. There are no guarantees and the worst thing that can happen is the worst thing that can happen, hence the iron law of gambling.

    I was dropping phrases like a "hung parliament is a risk-free bet" prior to the election and two of my friends, both of whom have PhDs in maths, took issue. I cockily dismissed their concerns.

    Now, they won't let me forget it.
    Hmm I never bought into the whole "risk free" hung parliament thing. But the GOP race feels quite different.
    Laying Marco Rubio for instance is great value (I think) but it sure as hell isn't risk free.
    Rubio's clearly overpriced for the nomination, but probably slightly cheap for the Presidency.
    Trump is underpriced for both still.
    Cruz is difficult: I'd reckon he's the right price for the nomination and slightly expensive for the Presidency.
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,160
    rcs1000 said:

    By the way, in case anybody hasn't read it, can I recommend Brian Keenan's An Evil Cradling, which be wrote shortly after ceasing to be hostage in Lebanon.

    It's better to light a candle than curse the darkness...
    It's better to light a candle than curse the darkness...
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,028
    notme said:

    So Britain's apartheid scandal of painting the front doors of asylum seekers' houses red turned out to be a load of twaddle.

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/01/news-from-todays-select-committee-the-doors-were-painted-red-20-years-ago/

    I am unamazed.


    I look on the 'scandal' about the wrist bands. I think it allows us to separate the nation into two. Sensible people who think wearing a wrist band to identify you so you can get entitlement to full board for free, is a low tech and practical way to identify an entitlement, and have probably experienced similar things when on all inclusive holidays, these people cross all classes, races and political views.. And then we have the stark raving nutters who seem to believe that this is the most evil thing ever and shows how we are descending into a fascist state. Such people are likely to be Corbyn supporters.
    Yes, my holidays in Turkey and Tunisia were many things. But apartheid is not amongst them.
    Good for Denmark.
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited January 2016
    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    CNN GOP national

    Trump 41%
    Cruz 19%
    Rubio 8%
    Carson 6%
    Bush 5%

    General election

    Clinton 48%
    Trump 47%

    Clinton 47%
    Rubio 50%

    Clinton 47%
    Cruz 50%


    Sanders 50%
    Trump 47%

    Sanders 49%
    Rubio 48%

    Sanders 50%
    Cruz 47%
    http://edition.cnn.com/2016/01/26/politics/poll-republicans-results-cnn-orc/index.html

    According to their demographic breakdown they polled noone between the ages of 18-34.

    ORC are a gobsmaking polling firm
    Maybe albeit that demographic has the lowest turnout
    It certainly isn't zero.
    Did you see my link to the ORC post debate poll in 2012?

    Only White, College educated people aged 50+ who lived in the South were polled.

    http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2012/images/10/03/top12.pdf

    I feel that ORC polling should have a health warning.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,218
    Alistair said:

    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    CNN GOP national

    Trump 41%
    Cruz 19%
    Rubio 8%
    Carson 6%
    Bush 5%

    General election

    Clinton 48%
    Trump 47%

    Clinton 47%
    Rubio 50%

    Clinton 47%
    Cruz 50%


    Sanders 50%
    Trump 47%

    Sanders 49%
    Rubio 48%

    Sanders 50%
    Cruz 47%
    http://edition.cnn.com/2016/01/26/politics/poll-republicans-results-cnn-orc/index.html

    According to their demographic breakdown they polled noone between the ages of 18-34.

    ORC are a gobsmaking polling firm
    Maybe albeit that demographic has the lowest turnout
    It certainly isn't zero.
    Did you see my link to the ORC post debate poll in 2012?

    Only White, College educated people aged 50+ who lived in the South were polled.

    http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2012/images/10/03/top12.pdf

    I feel that ORC polling should have a health warning.
    Yet today's ORC poll has Sanders leading Trump, Cruz and Rubio, I doubt all his backers in the poll were white southerners!
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    CNN GOP national

    Trump 41%
    Cruz 19%
    Rubio 8%
    Carson 6%
    Bush 5%

    General election

    Clinton 48%
    Trump 47%

    Clinton 47%
    Rubio 50%

    Clinton 47%
    Cruz 50%


    Sanders 50%
    Trump 47%

    Sanders 49%
    Rubio 48%

    Sanders 50%
    Cruz 47%
    http://edition.cnn.com/2016/01/26/politics/poll-republicans-results-cnn-orc/index.html

    According to their demographic breakdown they polled noone between the ages of 18-34.

    ORC are a gobsmaking polling firm
    Maybe albeit that demographic has the lowest turnout
    It certainly isn't zero.
    Did you see my link to the ORC post debate poll in 2012?

    Only White, College educated people aged 50+ who lived in the South were polled.

    http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2012/images/10/03/top12.pdf

    I feel that ORC polling should have a health warning.
    Yet today's ORC poll has Sanders leading Trump, Cruz and Rubio, I doubt all his backers in the poll were white southerners!
    I would be a bit of a sea change in the American political landscape if so.

    Basically I doubt ORC's commitment to representative demographic weighting.
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,464
    AndyJS said:
    Anyone asked Kinnock his thoughts?
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited January 2016
    Oooh, just discovered I put a bet on Biden for Dem Nomination @ 130 before Christmas. He's down to @50 so I think I will lay that. It's only pennies but it all counts.

    Bloody hell, someone back Biden at 3/1.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,778
    viewcode said:

    rcs1000 said:

    By the way, in case anybody hasn't read it, can I recommend Brian Keenan's An Evil Cradling, which be wrote shortly after ceasing to be hostage in Lebanon.

    It's better to light a candle than curse the darkness...
    It's better to light a candle than curse the darkness...
    Sometimes it's better to light a flamethrower than curse the darkness.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @PolhomeEditor: Alex Salmond: "The problem with Donald Trump is no one has ever said No to him."
    Matt Frei: "Including you."
    #trump
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,160
    Anyhoo, I have an odd request.

    I'm selling my flat and trying to buy a new one. The buyer of my flat is threatening to pull out so I need to buy fast. I've seen one I like *but* it's miles from the nearest bus route. There is a new development nearby which may offer a shortcut to a busstop but neither google maps nor bing maps are up-to-date at the area. What is the most up-to-date satellite shot of a given area?
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,160
    edited January 2016

    viewcode said:

    rcs1000 said:

    By the way, in case anybody hasn't read it, can I recommend Brian Keenan's An Evil Cradling, which be wrote shortly after ceasing to be hostage in Lebanon.

    It's better to light a candle than curse the darkness...
    It's better to light a candle than curse the darkness...
    Sometimes it's better to light a flamethrower than curse the darkness.
    Give a man a fire he'll be warm for the rest of the day.
    Set a man on fire he'll be warm for the rest of his life.

  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,059
    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    rcs1000 said:

    By the way, in case anybody hasn't read it, can I recommend Brian Keenan's An Evil Cradling, which be wrote shortly after ceasing to be hostage in Lebanon.

    It's better to light a candle than curse the darkness...
    It's better to light a candle than curse the darkness...
    Sometimes it's better to light a flamethrower than curse the darkness.
    Give a man a fire he'll be warm for the rest of the day.
    Set a man on fire he'll be warm for the rest of his life.

    Teach a man to fish and he'll never go hungry
    Teach a man to fish for compliments and he becomes tiresome and needy
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,218
    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    CNN GOP national

    Trump 41%
    Cruz 19%
    Rubio 8%
    Carson 6%
    Bush 5%

    General election

    Clinton 48%
    Trump 47%

    Clinton 47%
    Rubio 50%

    Clinton 47%
    Cruz 50%


    Sanders 50%
    Trump 47%

    Sanders 49%
    Rubio 48%

    Sanders 50%
    Cruz 47%
    http://edition.cnn.com/2016/01/26/politics/poll-republicans-results-cnn-orc/index.html

    According to their demographic breakdown they polled noone between the ages of 18-34.

    ORC are a gobsmaking polling firm
    Maybe albeit that demographic has the lowest turnout
    It certainly isn't zero.
    Did you see my link to the ORC post debate poll in 2012?

    Only White, College educated people aged 50+ who lived in the South were polled.

    http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2012/images/10/03/top12.pdf

    I feel that ORC polling should have a health warning.
    Yet today's ORC poll has Sanders leading Trump, Cruz and Rubio, I doubt all his backers in the poll were white southerners!
    I would be a bit of a sea change in the American political landscape if so.

    Basically I doubt ORC's commitment to representative demographic weighting.
    Perhaps but their polling is not that much different from what the other pollsters are showing
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,229
    viewcode said:

    Anyhoo, I have an odd request.

    I'm selling my flat and trying to buy a new one. The buyer of my flat is threatening to pull out so I need to buy fast. I've seen one I like *but* it's miles from the nearest bus route. There is a new development nearby which may offer a shortcut to a busstop but neither google maps nor bing maps are up-to-date at the area. What is the most up-to-date satellite shot of a given area?

    For $22,500 I can get a photo taken this week of your spot. Let me know the exact co-ordinates.
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,464
    Question. Has Trump got into any debate arguing with Fiorina and if so, does anyone know how it went?
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,812
    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    Every time I log-in to Betfair there's another splodge of cash that some persons have placed down trying to back Jeb at 9/1 (or 10.0 ) - I took almost half of it yesterday, and there's over £200 available now.

    I simply can't mop any more of it up.

    It is things like this that make me feel that I don't have a clue about political betting. Those odds are insane and I simply can't see a 9/1 path for Bush, I wouldn't back him at 20/1. But I accept I not omnipotent so maybe I'm wrong and the lunatic with the cash is right?
    Well, you might be. There are no guarantees and the worst thing that can happen is the worst thing that can happen, hence the iron law of gambling.

    I was dropping phrases like a "hung parliament is a risk-free bet" prior to the election and two of my friends, both of whom have PhDs in maths, took issue. I cockily dismissed their concerns.

    Now, they won't let me forget it.
    Hmm I never bought into the whole "risk free" hung parliament thing. But the GOP race feels quite different.
    Laying Marco Rubio for instance is great value (I think) but it sure as hell isn't risk free.
    Yeah, we all say that now. But no-one thought (or said) anything else at the time - other than Rod Crosby, and even he had his reservations in the final weeks - no-one seriously thought Labour would get a majority, and a Tory one was for the birds. The "free money" line was in vogue.

    Thing is, it sort of was for me. I had such a good position on hung parliament, built up over the previous 2 years, that I traded out to a still half-decent profit on a Tory Majority pretty easily, so my bets of £200 at 1.08 for hung parliament didn't sink me.

    The most value riskest free option (new phrase?) is to lay Jeb of course.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,812
    Scott_P said:

    @PolhomeEditor: Alex Salmond: "The problem with Donald Trump is no one has ever said No to him."
    Matt Frei: "Including you."
    #trump

    Stopped watched after 10 mins. Didn't even pretend to be serious investigative journalism.

    May as well have called it: "an hour on why I, Matt Frei, hate Donald Trump"
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,160
    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    Anyhoo, I have an odd request.

    I'm selling my flat and trying to buy a new one. The buyer of my flat is threatening to pull out so I need to buy fast. I've seen one I like *but* it's miles from the nearest bus route. There is a new development nearby which may offer a shortcut to a busstop but neither google maps nor bing maps are up-to-date at the area. What is the most up-to-date satellite shot of a given area?

    For $22,500 I can get a photo taken this week of your spot. Let me know the exact co-ordinates.
    If I had $22,500, I wouldn't need a flat near a bus stop... ;)


  • Options
    MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    edited January 2016
    isam said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    rcs1000 said:

    By the way, in case anybody hasn't read it, can I recommend Brian Keenan's An Evil Cradling, which be wrote shortly after ceasing to be hostage in Lebanon.

    It's better to light a candle than curse the darkness...
    It's better to light a candle than curse the darkness...
    Sometimes it's better to light a flamethrower than curse the darkness.
    Give a man a fire he'll be warm for the rest of the day.
    Set a man on fire he'll be warm for the rest of his life.

    Teach a man to fish and he'll never go hungry
    Teach a man to fish for compliments and he becomes tiresome and needy

    Give a man a fish and he'll eat for a day.

    Teach a man to fish and he'll spend all day in a boat drinking beer.

  • Options
    tysontyson Posts: 6,052
    I don't know what could be a worse plight....being an asylum seeker in Cardiff and needing to wear a red band as an identity tag to access meals, or...being on one of those dreadful all inclusive holidays with a bunch of cheapskate, bargain hunting, Daily Mail reading, grotesquely obese Brits and having to wear a red band to access the Stella, fish and chips and processed meat breakfasts.
    Pulpstar said:

    notme said:

    So Britain's apartheid scandal of painting the front doors of asylum seekers' houses red turned out to be a load of twaddle.

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/01/news-from-todays-select-committee-the-doors-were-painted-red-20-years-ago/

    I am unamazed.


    I look on the 'scandal' about the wrist bands. I think it allows us to separate the nation into two. Sensible people who think wearing a wrist band to identify you so you can get entitlement to full board for free, is a low tech and practical way to identify an entitlement, and have probably experienced similar things when on all inclusive holidays, these people cross all classes, races and political views.. And then we have the stark raving nutters who seem to believe that this is the most evil thing ever and shows how we are descending into a fascist state. Such people are likely to be Corbyn supporters.
    Yes, my holidays in Turkey and Tunisia were many things. But apartheid is not amongst them.
    Good for Denmark.
  • Options
    glwglw Posts: 9,556
    viewcode said:

    Anyhoo, I have an odd request.

    I'm selling my flat and trying to buy a new one. The buyer of my flat is threatening to pull out so I need to buy fast. I've seen one I like *but* it's miles from the nearest bus route. There is a new development nearby which may offer a shortcut to a busstop but neither google maps nor bing maps are up-to-date at the area. What is the most up-to-date satellite shot of a given area?

    You could try this site, it lets you compare LOTS of maps simultaneously. You might find one with some newer data.

    http://mc.bbbike.org/mc/
  • Options
    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,291

    AndyJS said:
    Anyone asked Kinnock his thoughts?
    I wonder if the former Danish Social Democrat PM was elsewhere today.

    "One politician abstained and 70 others were absent."
  • Options
    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    New thread
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,812
    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    Every time I log-in to Betfair there's another splodge of cash that some persons have placed down trying to back Jeb at 9/1 (or 10.0 ) - I took almost half of it yesterday, and there's over £200 available now.

    I simply can't mop any more of it up.

    It is things like this that make me feel that I don't have a clue about political betting. Those odds are insane and I simply can't see a 9/1 path for Bush, I wouldn't back him at 20/1. But I accept I not omnipotent so maybe I'm wrong and the lunatic with the cash is right?
    Well, you might be. There are no guarantees and the worst thing that can happen is the worst thing that can happen, hence the iron law of gambling.

    I was dropping phrases like a "hung parliament is a risk-free bet" prior to the election and two of my friends, both of whom have PhDs in maths, took issue. I cockily dismissed their concerns.

    Now, they won't let me forget it.
    Hmm I never bought into the whole "risk free" hung parliament thing. But the GOP race feels quite different.
    Laying Marco Rubio for instance is great value (I think) but it sure as hell isn't risk free.
    Rubio's clearly overpriced for the nomination, but probably slightly cheap for the Presidency.
    Trump is underpriced for both still.
    Cruz is difficult: I'd reckon he's the right price for the nomination and slightly expensive for the Presidency.
    Agree with most of that, but I wouldn't back Rubio for the Presidency at current odds.

    Conversely, I'd be more likely to buy Cruz at 25/1 for the Presidency but that's probably about the right price.

    He is cheap for the nomination.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,218
    Ann Coulter 'I want a Trump-Romney ticket - Romney can do all the boring stuff like run the economy, Trump can do the fun stuff like kick out the illegals'
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,218
    Salmond 'If Trump becomes president I have a ticket to Antarctica, it is one of the last places radioactivity reaches'
  • Options
    viewcode said:

    Anyhoo, I have an odd request.

    I'm selling my flat and trying to buy a new one. The buyer of my flat is threatening to pull out so I need to buy fast. I've seen one I like *but* it's miles from the nearest bus route. There is a new development nearby which may offer a shortcut to a busstop but neither google maps nor bing maps are up-to-date at the area. What is the most up-to-date satellite shot of a given area?

    Call me old fashioned but could you not walk it yourself?
  • Options
    watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    edited January 2016
    tyson said:

    I don't know what could be a worse plight....being an asylum seeker in Cardiff and needing to wear a red band as an identity tag to access meals, or...being on one of those dreadful all inclusive holidays with a bunch of cheapskate, bargain hunting, Daily Mail reading, grotesquely obese Brits and having to wear a red band to access the Stella, fish and chips and processed meat breakfasts.

    Pulpstar said:

    notme said:

    So Britain's apartheid scandal of painting the front doors of asylum seekers' houses red turned out to be a load of twaddle.

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/01/news-from-todays-select-committee-the-doors-were-painted-red-20-years-ago/

    I am unamazed.


    I look on the 'scandal' about the wrist bands. I think it allows us to separate the nation into two. Sensible people who think wearing a wrist band to identify you so you can get entitlement to full board for free, is a low tech and practical way to identify an entitlement, and have probably experienced similar things when on all inclusive holidays, these people cross all classes, races and political views.. And then we have the stark raving nutters who seem to believe that this is the most evil thing ever and shows how we are descending into a fascist state. Such people are likely to be Corbyn supporters.
    Yes, my holidays in Turkey and Tunisia were many things. But apartheid is not amongst them.
    Good for Denmark.
    Yes, it must be awful, being fed and housed for free in a foreign country where they're not trying to kill you, but help. Still, at least it's a few less refugees clogging up your cosy Florentine piazzas, and getting in the way of your In-Laws. Perhaps we should follow Denmark's example, then you might have some grounds to whine.

    BTW those dreadful Daily Mail types are the ones paying the taxes to look after people from elsewhere. Try and remember that.

    (Imagine being stuck in a hotel somewhere, with a load of Tysons. Nightmare).
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited January 2016

    Stoke can't be much good. We put four past this lot.

    We put 3 past Stoke just a few days ago. Looking forward to Liverpool at the KP a week tonight.

    Our lads are on a couple of days off while Liverpool play extra time.

    I put a few quid on Stoke at 6 for regular time. Good value as I expected a fairly even contest.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,283

    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    Every time I log-in to Betfair there's another splodge of cash that some persons have placed down trying to back Jeb at 9/1 (or 10.0 ) - I took almost half of it yesterday, and there's over £200 available now.

    I simply can't mop any more of it up.

    It is things like this that make me feel that I don't have a clue about political betting. Those odds are insane and I simply can't see a 9/1 path for Bush, I wouldn't back him at 20/1. But I accept I not omnipotent so maybe I'm wrong and the lunatic with the cash is right?
    Well, you might be. There are no guarantees and the worst thing that can happen is the worst thing that can happen, hence the iron law of gambling.

    I was dropping phrases like a "hung parliament is a risk-free bet" prior to the election and two of my friends, both of whom have PhDs in maths, took issue. I cockily dismissed their concerns.

    Now, they won't let me forget it.
    Hmm I never bought into the whole "risk free" hung parliament thing. But the GOP race feels quite different.
    Laying Marco Rubio for instance is great value (I think) but it sure as hell isn't risk free.
    Rubio's clearly overpriced for the nomination, but probably slightly cheap for the Presidency.
    Trump is underpriced for both still.
    Cruz is difficult: I'd reckon he's the right price for the nomination and slightly expensive for the Presidency.
    Agree with most of that, but I wouldn't back Rubio for the Presidency at current odds.

    Conversely, I'd be more likely to buy Cruz at 25/1 for the Presidency but that's probably about the right price.

    He is cheap for the nomination.
    Rubio would get slaughtered by Clinton in the general election. He's a lightweight.
  • Options
    Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,819
    tyson said:

    I don't know what could be a worse plight....being an asylum seeker in Cardiff and needing to wear a red band as an identity tag to access meals, or...being on one of those dreadful all inclusive holidays with a bunch of cheapskate, bargain hunting, Daily Mail reading, grotesquely obese Brits and having to wear a red band to access the Stella, fish and chips and processed meat breakfasts.

    Pulpstar said:

    notme said:

    So Britain's apartheid scandal of painting the front doors of asylum seekers' houses red turned out to be a load of twaddle.

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/01/news-from-todays-select-committee-the-doors-were-painted-red-20-years-ago/

    I am unamazed.


    I look on the 'scandal' about the wrist bands. I think it allows us to separate the nation into two. Sensible people who think wearing a wrist band to identify you so you can get entitlement to full board for free, is a low tech and practical way to identify an entitlement, and have probably experienced similar things when on all inclusive holidays, these people cross all classes, races and political views.. And then we have the stark raving nutters who seem to believe that this is the most evil thing ever and shows how we are descending into a fascist state. Such people are likely to be Corbyn supporters.
    Yes, my holidays in Turkey and Tunisia were many things. But apartheid is not amongst them.
    Good for Denmark.
    Tyson, please try to bear in mind that many people do not have sufficient wealth to be able to jet off around the world first-class. For "cheapskate" "Bargain hunting" read "finding the few holidays they can afford".
    The words you used imply "Why don't they simply pay more for better holidays?" (If not, then "cheapskate" and "bargain hunting" were grotesquely poorly chosen words.
    I'm sorry, but that just makes you come over as a frightful snob and toff.
  • Options
    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737

    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    Every time I log-in to Betfair there's another splodge of cash that some persons have placed down trying to back Jeb at 9/1 (or 10.0 ) - I took almost half of it yesterday, and there's over £200 available now.

    I simply can't mop any more of it up.

    It is things like this that make me feel that I don't have a clue about political betting. Those odds are insane and I simply can't see a 9/1 path for Bush, I wouldn't back him at 20/1. But I accept I not omnipotent so maybe I'm wrong and the lunatic with the cash is right?
    Well, you might be. There are no guarantees and the worst thing that can happen is the worst thing that can happen, hence the iron law of gambling.

    I was dropping phrases like a "hung parliament is a risk-free bet" prior to the election and two of my friends, both of whom have PhDs in maths, took issue. I cockily dismissed their concerns.

    Now, they won't let me forget it.
    Hmm I never bought into the whole "risk free" hung parliament thing. But the GOP race feels quite different.
    Laying Marco Rubio for instance is great value (I think) but it sure as hell isn't risk free.
    Yeah, we all say that now. But no-one thought (or said) anything else at the time - other than Rod Crosby, and even he had his reservations in the final weeks - no-one seriously thought Labour would get a majority, and a Tory one was for the birds. The "free money" line was in vogue.
    Given that, in the event, just six fewer Tory seats would have meant a hung parliament, it was impossible to call.

    I highlighted the distinct possibility of a Tory majority throughout 2014, and had ruled out a Labour majority by late 2011...
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,671

    tyson said:

    I don't know what could be a worse plight....being an asylum seeker in Cardiff and needing to wear a red band as an identity tag to access meals, or...being on one of those dreadful all inclusive holidays with a bunch of cheapskate, bargain hunting, Daily Mail reading, grotesquely obese Brits and having to wear a red band to access the Stella, fish and chips and processed meat breakfasts.

    Pulpstar said:

    notme said:

    So Britain's apartheid scandal of painting the front doors of asylum seekers' houses red turned out to be a load of twaddle.

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/01/news-from-todays-select-committee-the-doors-were-painted-red-20-years-ago/

    I am unamazed.


    I look on the 'scandal' about the wrist bands. I think it allows us to separate the nation into two. Sensible people who think wearing a wrist band to identify you so you can get entitlement to full board for free, is a low tech and practical way to identify an entitlement, and have probably experienced similar things when on all inclusive holidays, these people cross all classes, races and political views.. And then we have the stark raving nutters who seem to believe that this is the most evil thing ever and shows how we are descending into a fascist state. Such people are likely to be Corbyn supporters.
    Yes, my holidays in Turkey and Tunisia were many things. But apartheid is not amongst them.
    Good for Denmark.
    Tyson, please try to bear in mind that many people do not have sufficient wealth to be able to jet off around the world first-class. For "cheapskate" "Bargain hunting" read "finding the few holidays they can afford".
    The words you used imply "Why don't they simply pay more for better holidays?" (If not, then "cheapskate" and "bargain hunting" were grotesquely poorly chosen words.
    I'm sorry, but that just makes you come over as a frightful snob and toff.
    Funny, I thought it made him come over as socially insecure and self-hating.
  • Options
    john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    edited January 2016
    @tyson

    'I don't know what could be a worse plight....being an asylum seeker in Cardiff and needing to wear a red band as an identity tag to access meals, or...being on one of those dreadful all inclusive holidays with a bunch of cheapskate, bargain hunting, Daily Mail reading, grotesquely obese Brits and having to wear a red band to access the Stella, fish and chips and processed meat breakfasts.'


    Couldn't be a worse plight than mixing with a pseudo intellectual socialist poser in Italy.
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