politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Trump could be unstoppable if he wins Iowa next Monday
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Trump could be unstoppable if he wins Iowa next Monday
The organisational challenges at the state’s caucuses are formidable. Probably only about 12% of those eligible take part in the complex process of attending a two hour meeting in one of the 1,600 precincts where caucus meetings are held.
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First (as Trump will be)0
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There's an ill wind coming from a Trump nomination0
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FPT JenS said: Death By Christmas.
Too Agatha Christie for our Mr T.
How about The Beautiful Harbinger?0 -
Cruz's problem is he is a donations politician at the most anti establishment period since the war.
They all court the money and they all court the media, except for one.0 -
Cruz's plea is bullshit - Trump won't be unstoppable even if he wins both Iowa & New Hampshire. Ted Cruz could, however, be unrecoverable.0
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As Trump moderates his views a bit (and he will as he no longer has to stand out from the crowd) many who are currently calling him unacceptable will move back to the undecided column.TheScreamingEagles said:Go Rubio and Cruz
https://twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/6919821027289579520 -
The Janus Omen
although thats more new year.0 -
AgreedTissue_Price said:Cruz's plea is bullshit - Trump won't be unstoppable even if he wins both Iowa & New Hampshire. Ted Cruz could, however, be unrecoverable.
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That photo for SeanT's book cover, with the tree lined lane & perspective seems to be very suggestive. Perhaps Dr Freud would have read too much into it. Does it remind you of your mother?0
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As someone pointed out yesterday, Trump is really a New York liberal pretending to be a Conservative.0
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For SeanT:
How about "Bad tidings we bring"
or something along those lines...0 -
To DaemonBarber - FPT
'Bad Tidings We Bring' is a great title - but for an episode of Midsommer Murders perhaps.0 -
I've stuck another wodge against Jeb Bush, his price of 9.8 is an abomination.0
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Poor Jeb! How did he end up as the most unacceptable candidate?0
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https://twitter.com/Morning_Joe/status/691962211418271745
Rumour has it, it might be Sen. Jeff Sessions.0 -
I am, of course, NAE. But that picture would fit better with the outline plot if there was a dark avenue of trees, with a gate blocking it off halfway down. The gate being the prediction, and the unknown lying beyond.dr_spyn said:That photo for SeanT's book cover, with the tree lined lane & perspective seems to be very suggestive. Perhaps Dr Freud would have read too much into it. Does it remind you of your mother?
I was thinking of joke titles for the book, but they were all too cornea ...0 -
''As someone pointed out yesterday, Trump is really a New York liberal pretending to be a Conservative. ''
I guess there aren't too many New York liberals who advocate walls and banning muslim immigrants.0 -
Yes, getting Mexico to build a wall along the border and excluding people because of their religion shows that he is obviously a liberal at heart.AndyJS said:As someone pointed out yesterday, Trump is really a New York liberal pretending to be a Conservative.
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Actually:
"Low vision" / "Deep vision"?0 -
Poor Jeb! How did he end up as the most unacceptable candidate?
He IS the establishment.
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It's the huge negatives for Bush and Christie that stand out in that poll. Christie could well drop out after Iowa and NH, but for how long will Bush and his large piggy bank keep going?TheScreamingEagles said:Go Rubio and Cruz
Twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/6919821027289579520 -
''They wouldn't say so in public, yes. ''
If that's what the New York liberals are saying in private, then goodness knows what the Alabama rednecks are saying....0 -
And how would Trump lose if he wins all early states?Tissue_Price said:Cruz's plea is bullshit - Trump won't be unstoppable even if he wins both Iowa & New Hampshire. Ted Cruz could, however, be unrecoverable.
He is leading in every single state by a landslide except Texas.
He will get the momentum, he will have no competitor, the media will crown him the winner and that will be it.
Already many former sworn enemies of his are licking his @ss , since they think he's inevitable and want to cozy with the winner.0 -
Actually I think it may well have been a MSM episode... <googles/>flightpath01 said:To DaemonBarber - FPT
'Bad Tidings We Bring' is a great title - but for an episode of Midsommer Murders perhaps.
hmm close: MSM: Bad Tidings0 -
Trump will be delighted for Jeb to stay in the race. Keeps the "sensible conservative" vote totally split with Rubio. If Jeb drops out, Rubio has a prayer. But he won't.Sandpit said:
It's the huge negatives for Bush and Christie that stand out in that poll. Christie could well drop out after Iowa and NH, but for how long will Bush and his large piggy bank keep going?TheScreamingEagles said:Go Rubio and Cruz
Twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/6919821027289579520 -
That cover makes me think
"The way through the woods"
Apart from being one of my favourite poems I think it was used for a TV episode of Morse but not for a novel. The allusions to a popular ghost poem should create the right atmosphere.0 -
Left-field...DavidL said:That cover makes me think
"The way through the woods"
Apart from being one of my favourite poems I think it was used for a TV episode of Morse but not for a novel. The allusions to a popular ghost poem should create the right atmosphere.
The Axe Will Fall0 -
Apparently, Rubio's ground organisation in Iowa is awful0
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Sunil J. Prasannan is calling for a total and complete shut-down of AV Threads entering PB.com, until our Forum's representatives can figure out what is going on!TheScreamingEagles said:There's an ill wind coming from a Trump nomination
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I thought it was ghost story boring. Derivative.DavidL said:
That cover makes me think
"The way through the woods"
Apart from being one of my favourite poems I think it was used for a TV episode of Morse but not for a novel. The allusions to a popular ghost poem should create the right atmosphere.0 -
Quite. If Trump wins the early states then the others will quickly have to unite behind one man as the Stop Trump candidate. The obvious choice is Rubio, but will enough others drop out and endorse him before the man with the big hair becomes unstoppable?Pulpstar said:
Trump will be delighted for Jeb to stay in the race. Keeps the "sensible conservative" vote totally split with Rubio. If Jeb drops out, Rubio has a prayer. But he won't.Sandpit said:
It's the huge negatives for Bush and Christie that stand out in that poll. Christie could well drop out after Iowa and NH, but for how long will Bush and his large piggy bank keep going?TheScreamingEagles said:Go Rubio and Cruz
Twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/6919821027289579520 -
One of two things happens price wise after Iowa.
Either Trump goes odds on and Cruz heads out to around 20s. Or Cruz comes back in to around 3-1, with Trump drifting back out to 2-1.
Crucial state - for Cruz probably moreso than Trump.0 -
@SeanT "Out Of The Mouths Of Children"0
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If Trump wins Iowa, then he has to be 85+% chance of getting the nomination.Speedy said:
And how would Trump lose if he wins all early states?Tissue_Price said:Cruz's plea is bullshit - Trump won't be unstoppable even if he wins both Iowa & New Hampshire. Ted Cruz could, however, be unrecoverable.
He is leading in every single state by a landslide except Texas.
He will get the momentum, he will have no competitor, the media will crown him the winner and that will be it.
Already many former sworn enemies of his are licking his @ss , since they think he's inevitable and want to cozy with the winner.
But it would still be *possible* for him to lose.0 -
He's not leading in Iowa by a landslide and may well lose there. I agree with Mike though, if Trump wins the caucus, I can't see him not going on to take the nomination: it will reinforce his already substantial strength everywhere else.Speedy said:
And how would Trump lose if he wins all early states?Tissue_Price said:Cruz's plea is bullshit - Trump won't be unstoppable even if he wins both Iowa & New Hampshire. Ted Cruz could, however, be unrecoverable.
He is leading in every single state by a landslide except Texas.
He will get the momentum, he will have no competitor, the media will crown him the winner and that will be it.
Already many former sworn enemies of his are licking his @ss , since they think he's inevitable and want to cozy with the winner.0 -
You've answered your own question.taffys said:Poor Jeb! How did he end up as the most unacceptable candidate?
He IS the establishment.
Edit - no, you answered someone else's question but didn't do the 'blockquote' thingy.
Anyway, I agree. Jeb also has no charisma.0 -
By 2020, Osborne will have been an MP for 20 years - too long to be leader? He's in good company @jameskirkup https://t.co/r2YFIvEsrx0
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So far the Republican nomination has been the Labour party leadership election redux.
One clear leader who is not the flavour of the month with the party establishment; everyone else more interested in positioning themselves against the other "serious" candidates than attacking him; the leader grabbing all the headlines with a series of off the wall statements; no one else having much to say; last minute panic as the also rans suddenly grasp this is serious; some half hearted attacks when it is already too late and disaster ensues.
Only the last chapter has yet to be written. Everything else is as spooky as a SeanT novel.0 -
If Trump loses Iowa (assuming he comes second), wins NH, then he should still be regarded as a 45% at the presidency, as he is now, IMO.Pulpstar said:One of two things happens price wise after Iowa.
Either Trump goes odds on and Cruz heads out to around 20s. Or Cruz comes back in to around 3-1, with Trump drifting back out to 2-1.
Crucial state - for Cruz probably moreso than Trump.0 -
I Hope You're Lying.
This weather's a bit rubbish. High winds make the dog giddy, which is less than delightful when we're next to a road...
Edited extra bit: Deceit Or Death?0 -
That's a great affair title. Knowledge, suspicion and fear. And perverse hope.
I'd pick that up.Morris_Dancer said:I Hope You're Lying.
This weather's a bit rubbish. High winds make the dog giddy, which is less than delightful when we're next to a road...0 -
The electorate is perhaps sufficiently different though (primaries as opposed to membership), the process has a clear structural bias towards establishment candidates, and the election is (or can be) drawn out over months. Trump is himself a backlash; is there time for a backlash to the backlash?DavidL said:So far the Republican nomination has been the Labour party leadership election redux.
One clear leader who is not the flavour of the month with the party establishment; everyone else more interested in positioning themselves against the other "serious" candidates than attacking him; the leader grabbing all the headlines with a series of off the wall statements; no one else having much to say; last minute panic as the also rans suddenly grasp this is serious; some half hearted attacks when it is already too late and disaster ensues.
Only the last chapter has yet to be written. Everything else is as spooky as a SeanT novel.0 -
OGH...do you mind...we are discussing book titles here....0
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Osborne was the youngest Tory MP in 2001 by nearly 5 years.Plato_Says said:By 2020, Osborne will have been an MP for 20 years - too long to be leader? He's in good company @jameskirkup https://t.co/r2YFIvEsrx
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Final pitch, based on the pic, before going to be useful member of society:
The Stepstone Teller or The Stepstone Seer0 -
For sure. He'll drift though as the market right now is pre-Iowa.TheWhiteRabbit said:
If Trump loses Iowa (assuming he comes second), wins NH, then he should still be regarded as a 45% at the presidency, as he is now, IMO.Pulpstar said:One of two things happens price wise after Iowa.
Either Trump goes odds on and Cruz heads out to around 20s. Or Cruz comes back in to around 3-1, with Trump drifting back out to 2-1.
Crucial state - for Cruz probably moreso than Trump.0 -
I don't think you can consider Iowa and New Hampshire from the point of view of just Cruz and Trump; equally important, perhaps more important, is what happens amongst the other candidates. The race will be transformed if one of them emerges as the clear alternative to the top two.
Unfortunately for Rubio, who otherwise would be well-placed to break out of the also-ran pack, it looks as though Kasich is going to shaft him in NH. At least that is how it looks at the moment.0 -
One of my better bets was laying Jeb at 2.9.shadsy said:
Yeah, it's been odd how low that has stayed for weeks. Wonder if TeamJeb! are spending some of that war chest on ramping his price?Pulpstar said:I've stuck another wodge against Jeb Bush, his price of 9.8 is an abomination.
Unfortunately I also laid Trump at 7.6!0 -
EyeSpyMP
Newcastle University yesterday: @TimFarron saying how 8 @LibDems are now the official opposition to the Tories.0 -
Delete "official" and add "only sane" and that's arguably accuratePlato_Says said:EyeSpyMP
Newcastle University yesterday: @TimFarron saying how 8 @LibDems are now the official opposition to the Tories.
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They may be a reasonable thought, but no one is listening or indeed cares about the LD's, the only story in town is how Labour are tearing themselves apart.Andy_Cooke said:
Delete "official" and add "only sane" and that's arguably accuratePlato_Says said:EyeSpyMP
Newcastle University yesterday: @TimFarron saying how 8 @LibDems are now the official opposition to the Tories.0 -
I've laid him out to £500... not sure I can really risk much more, even on the very unlikeliest of possibilities.Richard_Nabavi said:
One of my better bets was laying Jeb at 2.9.shadsy said:
Yeah, it's been odd how low that has stayed for weeks. Wonder if TeamJeb! are spending some of that war chest on ramping his price?Pulpstar said:I've stuck another wodge against Jeb Bush, his price of 9.8 is an abomination.
Unfortunately I also laid Trump at 7.6!0 -
TheWhiteRabbit.TheWhiteRabbit said:
If Trump loses Iowa (assuming he comes second), wins NH, then he should still be regarded as a 45% at the presidency, as he is now, IMO.Pulpstar said:One of two things happens price wise after Iowa.
Either Trump goes odds on and Cruz heads out to around 20s. Or Cruz comes back in to around 3-1, with Trump drifting back out to 2-1.
Crucial state - for Cruz probably moreso than Trump.
This doesn't make sense. Trump can't be regarded as 45% for the Presidency before Iowa AND after coming 2nd in Iowa. He's odds on favourite to win Iowa. You must surely rate his chances NOW of being the nominee as a bigger percentage than 45% IF after coming 2nd in Iowa, (currently an odds against likelihood), he is THEN considered a 45% chance0 -
Fingers crossedRichard_Nabavi said:
Unfortunately for Rubio, who otherwise would be well-placed to break out of the also-ran pack, it looks as though Kasich is going to shaft him in NH. At least that is how it looks at the moment.
In all serious per BurnhamCooperKendall people are inclined to leave things far too late and do too little. Add in a strong performance for Kasich in NH, there's 0% chance he drops out.
I think Bush 2020 is more likely, TBH.
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Yes, but that could be just arbers as we've been a little bit bigger on Bush than exchange prices for periods.Pulpstar said:0 -
Sorry I didn't make things clear.stjohn said:
TheWhiteRabbit.TheWhiteRabbit said:
If Trump loses Iowa (assuming he comes second), wins NH, then he should still be regarded as a 45% at the presidency, as he is now, IMO.Pulpstar said:One of two things happens price wise after Iowa.
Either Trump goes odds on and Cruz heads out to around 20s. Or Cruz comes back in to around 3-1, with Trump drifting back out to 2-1.
Crucial state - for Cruz probably moreso than Trump.
This doesn't make sense. Trump can't be regarded as 45% for the Presidency before Iowa AND after coming 2nd in Iowa. He's odds on favourite to win Iowa. You must surely rate his chances NOW of being the nominee as a bigger percentage than 45% IF after coming 2nd in Iowa, (currently an odds against likelihood), he is THEN considered a 45% chance
If he comes second in Iowa, a drift out to 2/1 is possible.
But he will come in again if he wins NH.
The only way he looks bad value is if you think there's a real likelihood he comes second in Iowa and loses NH.0 -
Perhaps Farron is referring to his secret army in the HoL?Plato_Says said:EyeSpyMP
Newcastle University yesterday: @TimFarron saying how 8 @LibDems are now the official opposition to the Tories.0 -
Bush or some other moderate Republican may do well in 2020 if Trump or Cruz get the nomination and then get 'Goldwatered' this time.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Fingers crossedRichard_Nabavi said:
Unfortunately for Rubio, who otherwise would be well-placed to break out of the also-ran pack, it looks as though Kasich is going to shaft him in NH. At least that is how it looks at the moment.
In all serious per BurnhamCooperKendall people are inclined to leave things far too late and do too little. Add in a strong performance for Kasich in NH, there's 0% chance he drops out.
I think Bush 2020 is more likely, TBH.0 -
I'd say something likeTheWhiteRabbit said:
Sorry I didn't make things clear.stjohn said:
TheWhiteRabbit.TheWhiteRabbit said:
If Trump loses Iowa (assuming he comes second), wins NH, then he should still be regarded as a 45% at the presidency, as he is now, IMO.Pulpstar said:One of two things happens price wise after Iowa.
Either Trump goes odds on and Cruz heads out to around 20s. Or Cruz comes back in to around 3-1, with Trump drifting back out to 2-1.
Crucial state - for Cruz probably moreso than Trump.
This doesn't make sense. Trump can't be regarded as 45% for the Presidency before Iowa AND after coming 2nd in Iowa. He's odds on favourite to win Iowa. You must surely rate his chances NOW of being the nominee as a bigger percentage than 45% IF after coming 2nd in Iowa, (currently an odds against likelihood), he is THEN considered a 45% chance
If he comes second in Iowa, a drift out to 2/1 is possible.
But he will come in again if he wins NH.
The only way he looks bad value is if you think there's a real likelihood he comes second in Iowa and loses NH.
This would make Trump a 66% chance for the nomination which explains why I am long!
# | Result Iowa | Result NH | Likelihood | % chance of nomination thereafter
1 | Win | Win | 45% | 90%
2 | Lose | Win | 45% | 50%
3 | Win | Lose | 2% | 40%
4 | Lose | Lose | 8% | 25%0 -
At some point Bush surely will price his chances in 2020 better than 2015.logical_song said:
Bush or some other moderate Republican may do well in 2020 if Trump or Cruz get the nomination and then get 'Goldwatered' this time.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Fingers crossedRichard_Nabavi said:
Unfortunately for Rubio, who otherwise would be well-placed to break out of the also-ran pack, it looks as though Kasich is going to shaft him in NH. At least that is how it looks at the moment.
In all serious per BurnhamCooperKendall people are inclined to leave things far too late and do too little. Add in a strong performance for Kasich in NH, there's 0% chance he drops out.
I think Bush 2020 is more likely, TBH.0 -
Who is going to Goldwater them? Were they facing Obama-08 then possibly, but Sanders or Hillary-16 is a very different (indeed, beatable) prospect.logical_song said:
Bush or some other moderate Republican may do well in 2020 if Trump or Cruz get the nomination and then get 'Goldwatered' this time.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Fingers crossedRichard_Nabavi said:
Unfortunately for Rubio, who otherwise would be well-placed to break out of the also-ran pack, it looks as though Kasich is going to shaft him in NH. At least that is how it looks at the moment.
In all serious per BurnhamCooperKendall people are inclined to leave things far too late and do too little. Add in a strong performance for Kasich in NH, there's 0% chance he drops out.
I think Bush 2020 is more likely, TBH.0 -
I assume with Jeb Bush he is quite happy to take their money.DecrepitJohnL said:0 -
He'll be happier taking money at 10/1 than the 25/1 or 50/1 which might be a more realistic price.Pulpstar said:
I assume with Jeb Bush he is quite happy to take their money.DecrepitJohnL said:
Bush's strategy is clearly to be in the last few by sheer force of money. Is the volume of cash for him holding the price down, or do the Republican Establishment think that if they can get him to the Convention they can somehow broker a deal for him?0 -
Like Christmas Prescience?JosiasJessop said:
I am, of course, NAE. But that picture would fit better with the outline plot if there was a dark avenue of trees, with a gate blocking it off halfway down. The gate being the prediction, and the unknown lying beyond.dr_spyn said:That photo for SeanT's book cover, with the tree lined lane & perspective seems to be very suggestive. Perhaps Dr Freud would have read too much into it. Does it remind you of your mother?
I was thinking of joke titles for the book, but they were all too cornea ...0 -
Prolly true for Cruz but I suspect a Trump loss will be grouped with McCain and Romney as not being a true conservative.logical_song said:
Bush or some other moderate Republican may do well in 2020 if Trump or Cruz get the nomination and then get 'Goldwatered' this time.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Fingers crossedRichard_Nabavi said:
Unfortunately for Rubio, who otherwise would be well-placed to break out of the also-ran pack, it looks as though Kasich is going to shaft him in NH. At least that is how it looks at the moment.
In all serious per BurnhamCooperKendall people are inclined to leave things far too late and do too little. Add in a strong performance for Kasich in NH, there's 0% chance he drops out.
I think Bush 2020 is more likely, TBH.0 -
Hillary versus Trump could be an easy win for Hillary.david_herdson said:
Who is going to Goldwater them? Were they facing Obama-08 then possibly, but Sanders or Hillary-16 is a very different (indeed, beatable) prospect.logical_song said:
Bush or some other moderate Republican may do well in 2020 if Trump or Cruz get the nomination and then get 'Goldwatered' this time.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Fingers crossedRichard_Nabavi said:
Unfortunately for Rubio, who otherwise would be well-placed to break out of the also-ran pack, it looks as though Kasich is going to shaft him in NH. At least that is how it looks at the moment.
In all serious per BurnhamCooperKendall people are inclined to leave things far too late and do too little. Add in a strong performance for Kasich in NH, there's 0% chance he drops out.
I think Bush 2020 is more likely, TBH.
"But Trump would start at a disadvantage: Most Americans just really don’t like the guy.
Contra Rupert Murdoch’s assertion about Trump having crossover appeal, Trump is extraordinarily unpopular with independent voters and Democrats."
"Gallup polling conducted over the past six weeks found Trump with a -27-percentage-point net favorability rating among independent voters, and a -70-point net rating among Democrats; both marks are easily the worst in the GOP field. "
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-really-unpopular-with-general-election-voters/0 -
Correct. No candidate is going to win 486 EC votes to 52.david_herdson said:
Who is going to Goldwater them? Were they facing Obama-08 then possibly, but Sanders or Hillary-16 is a very different (indeed, beatable) prospect.logical_song said:
Bush or some other moderate Republican may do well in 2020 if Trump or Cruz get the nomination and then get 'Goldwatered' this time.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Fingers crossedRichard_Nabavi said:
Unfortunately for Rubio, who otherwise would be well-placed to break out of the also-ran pack, it looks as though Kasich is going to shaft him in NH. At least that is how it looks at the moment.
In all serious per BurnhamCooperKendall people are inclined to leave things far too late and do too little. Add in a strong performance for Kasich in NH, there's 0% chance he drops out.
I think Bush 2020 is more likely, TBH.
In fact, the only Republican State in 2012 that looks vulnerable to me is North Carolina, I could see Trump doing worse in Florida, Virginia, Colarado, and Nevada than Romney did, but conversely, I'd see Rust Belt States like Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin coming into play.
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Can anyone see any value on this SPIN market on the London Mayoral election?
http://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/politics/uk/group_b.420c8db7-be75-4a06-8b09-3ab5e8d0646c/london-mayoral-election-2016
Edit: I reckon Winston McKenzie's a sell.0 -
If he's lose, lose, he won't be 25% chance for the presidency, he'll be sub 10%, because something disastrous will have happened. The only way Trump loses NH is if something major comes out about himTheWhiteRabbit said:
I'd say something likeTheWhiteRabbit said:
Sorry I didn't make things clear.stjohn said:
TheWhiteRabbit.TheWhiteRabbit said:
If Trump loses Iowa (assuming he comes second), wins NH, then he should still be regarded as a 45% at the presidency, as he is now, IMO.Pulpstar said:One of two things happens price wise after Iowa.
Either Trump goes odds on and Cruz heads out to around 20s. Or Cruz comes back in to around 3-1, with Trump drifting back out to 2-1.
Crucial state - for Cruz probably moreso than Trump.
This doesn't make sense. Trump can't be regarded as 45% for the Presidency before Iowa AND after coming 2nd in Iowa. He's odds on favourite to win Iowa. You must surely rate his chances NOW of being the nominee as a bigger percentage than 45% IF after coming 2nd in Iowa, (currently an odds against likelihood), he is THEN considered a 45% chance
If he comes second in Iowa, a drift out to 2/1 is possible.
But he will come in again if he wins NH.
The only way he looks bad value is if you think there's a real likelihood he comes second in Iowa and loses NH.
This would make Trump a 66% chance for the nomination which explains why I am long!
# | Result Iowa | Result NH | Likelihood | % chance of nomination thereafter
1 | Win | Win | 45% | 90%
2 | Lose | Win | 45% | 50%
3 | Win | Lose | 2% | 40%
4 | Lose | Lose | 8% | 25%0 -
For all the talk about how the Republicans supposedly hit their ceiling with white working class voters in 2012, it's often forgotten there was a crucial section of the WWC vote which they didn't do so well in that year: the blue-collar industrial workers from the Rust Belt, who thought Romney would lay them off and ship their jobs out to China to maximise his own profits. As you say, Trump could do much better with those voters.Sean_F said:
Correct. No candidate is going to win 486 EC votes to 52.david_herdson said:
Who is going to Goldwater them? Were they facing Obama-08 then possibly, but Sanders or Hillary-16 is a very different (indeed, beatable) prospect.logical_song said:
Bush or some other moderate Republican may do well in 2020 if Trump or Cruz get the nomination and then get 'Goldwatered' this time.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Fingers crossedRichard_Nabavi said:
Unfortunately for Rubio, who otherwise would be well-placed to break out of the also-ran pack, it looks as though Kasich is going to shaft him in NH. At least that is how it looks at the moment.
In all serious per BurnhamCooperKendall people are inclined to leave things far too late and do too little. Add in a strong performance for Kasich in NH, there's 0% chance he drops out.
I think Bush 2020 is more likely, TBH.
In fact, the only Republican State in 2012 that looks vulnerable to me is North Carolina, I could see Trump doing worse in Florida, Virginia, Colarado, and Nevada than Romney did, but conversely, I'd see Rust Belt States like Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin coming into play.-1 -
You might be right.TheScreamingEagles said:Can anyone see any value on this SPIN market on the London Mayoral election?
http://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/politics/uk/group_b.420c8db7-be75-4a06-8b09-3ab5e8d0646c/london-mayoral-election-2016
Edit: I reckon Winston McKenzie's a sell.
Someone needs to stick up a Winson vs Lib Dem match bet market though.0 -
Bit rubbish not having 3rd = 10, would be far more interesting then.TheScreamingEagles said:Can anyone see any value on this SPIN market on the London Mayoral election?
http://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/politics/uk/group_b.420c8db7-be75-4a06-8b09-3ab5e8d0646c/london-mayoral-election-2016
Edit: I reckon Winston McKenzie's a sell.
The only value would be in a sell if you thought there was a real chance of either Sadiq or Zac not making the starting line.
EDIT: Actually, Galloway is a buy as per Betfair. (49.5/0.5 = 99/1, and that's not taking into account 2nd place). 60.0 to lay.0 -
The most obvious sell since selling UKIP seats in Scotland.Pulpstar said:
You might be right.TheScreamingEagles said:Can anyone see any value on this SPIN market on the London Mayoral election?
http://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/politics/uk/group_b.420c8db7-be75-4a06-8b09-3ab5e8d0646c/london-mayoral-election-2016
Edit: I reckon Winston McKenzie's a sell.
Someone needs to stick up a Winson vs Lib Dem match bet market though.0 -
It's quite possible IMO that with Trump as candidate, the Republicans could win Michigan and Pennsylvania for the first time since the 1980s, at the same time as the Democrats keep hold of Virginia the former Republican stronghold.0
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I think if Bernie gets the nomination, Vermont may well be in the bag for them.0
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I like your thinking.Tissue_Price said:
Bit rubbish not having 3rd = 10, would be far more interesting then.TheScreamingEagles said:Can anyone see any value on this SPIN market on the London Mayoral election?
http://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/politics/uk/group_b.420c8db7-be75-4a06-8b09-3ab5e8d0646c/london-mayoral-election-2016
Edit: I reckon Winston McKenzie's a sell.
The only value would be in a sell if you thought there was a real chance of either Sadiq or Zac not making the starting line.
EDIT: Actually, Galloway is a buy as per Betfair. (49.5/0.5 = 99/1, and that's not taking into account 2nd place). 60.0 to lay.0 -
O/T
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/12122506/Devastating-Brexit-will-consign-Europe-to-a-second-rate-world-power-warns-Deutsche-Bank.html
If they're so worried, give us a good deal to present to the UK electorate!0 -
A candidate closely associated with Big Business didn't win in 2012, and such a candidate would probably do worse overall this time around.Danny565 said:
For all the talk about how the Republicans supposedly hit their ceiling with white working class voters in 2012, it's often forgotten there was a crucial section of the WWC vote which they didn't do so well in that year: the blue-collar industrial workers from the Rust Belt, who thought Romney would lay them off and ship their jobs out to China to maximise his own profits. As you say, Trump could do much better with those voters.Sean_F said:
Correct. No candidate is going to win 486 EC votes to 52.david_herdson said:
Who is going to Goldwater them? Were they facing Obama-08 then possibly, but Sanders or Hillary-16 is a very different (indeed, beatable) prospect.logical_song said:
Bush or some other moderate Republican may do well in 2020 if Trump or Cruz get the nomination and then get 'Goldwatered' this time.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Fingers crossedRichard_Nabavi said:
Unfortunately for Rubio, who otherwise would be well-placed to break out of the also-ran pack, it looks as though Kasich is going to shaft him in NH. At least that is how it looks at the moment.
In all serious per BurnhamCooperKendall people are inclined to leave things far too late and do too little. Add in a strong performance for Kasich in NH, there's 0% chance he drops out.
I think Bush 2020 is more likely, TBH.
In fact, the only Republican State in 2012 that looks vulnerable to me is North Carolina, I could see Trump doing worse in Florida, Virginia, Colarado, and Nevada than Romney did, but conversely, I'd see Rust Belt States like Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin coming into play.0 -
That must be unconstitutional.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Sunil J. Prasannan is calling for a total and complete shut-down of AV Threads entering PB.com, until our Forum's representatives can figure out what is going on!TheScreamingEagles said:There's an ill wind coming from a Trump nomination
0 -
Arrr. Why did you have to point that out?Tissue_Price said:
Bit rubbish not having 3rd = 10, would be far more interesting then.TheScreamingEagles said:Can anyone see any value on this SPIN market on the London Mayoral election?
http://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/politics/uk/group_b.420c8db7-be75-4a06-8b09-3ab5e8d0646c/london-mayoral-election-2016
Edit: I reckon Winston McKenzie's a sell.
The only value would be in a sell if you thought there was a real chance of either Sadiq or Zac not making the starting line.
EDIT: Actually, Galloway is a buy as per Betfair. (49.5/0.5 = 99/1, and that's not taking into account 2nd place). 60.0 to lay.
Stake; £50
"Your bet has been referred to a trader, please wait for a response..."
"Sorry this is a time limited price"
New stake £180 -
That's all your doing (I don't expect anyone else has tried to play). Still a buy at 1 if you believe betfair (I don't).Pong said:
Arrr. Why did you have to point that out?Tissue_Price said:
Bit rubbish not having 3rd = 10, would be far more interesting then.TheScreamingEagles said:Can anyone see any value on this SPIN market on the London Mayoral election?
http://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/politics/uk/group_b.420c8db7-be75-4a06-8b09-3ab5e8d0646c/london-mayoral-election-2016
Edit: I reckon Winston McKenzie's a sell.
The only value would be in a sell if you thought there was a real chance of either Sadiq or Zac not making the starting line.
EDIT: Actually, Galloway is a buy as per Betfair. (49.5/0.5 = 99/1, and that's not taking into account 2nd place). 60.0 to lay.
Stake; £50
"Your bet has been referred to a trader, please wait for a response..."
"Sorry this is a time limited price"
New stake £180 -
The best part of that was the way he used the 3rd person voice, and the past tense.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
That must be unconstitutional.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Sunil J. Prasannan is calling for a total and complete shut-down of AV Threads entering PB.com, until our Forum's representatives can figure out what is going on!TheScreamingEagles said:There's an ill wind coming from a Trump nomination
It was a wonder of modern English.0 -
I don't think Deutsche Bank has that kind of power! (Not to mention the fact that the DB investment bank is pretty much all in London; it's the old Morgan Grenfell)Blue_rog said:O/T
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/12122506/Devastating-Brexit-will-consign-Europe-to-a-second-rate-world-power-warns-Deutsche-Bank.html
If they're so worried, give us a good deal to present to the UK electorate!0 -
I don't think it's quite that simple. There's a very long way to go between here and November and the polls can change, not least because there are also a lot of people who really don't like Hillary either. She is Washington entitlement personified and Trump has a lot he can throw at her on that score.logical_song said:
Hillary versus Trump could be an easy win for Hillary.david_herdson said:
Who is going to Goldwater them? Were they facing Obama-08 then possibly, but Sanders or Hillary-16 is a very different (indeed, beatable) prospect.logical_song said:
Bush or some other moderate Republican may do well in 2020 if Trump or Cruz get the nomination and then get 'Goldwatered' this time.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Fingers crossedRichard_Nabavi said:
Unfortunately for Rubio, who otherwise would be well-placed to break out of the also-ran pack, it looks as though Kasich is going to shaft him in NH. At least that is how it looks at the moment.
In all serious per BurnhamCooperKendall people are inclined to leave things far too late and do too little. Add in a strong performance for Kasich in NH, there's 0% chance he drops out.
I think Bush 2020 is more likely, TBH.
"But Trump would start at a disadvantage: Most Americans just really don’t like the guy.
Contra Rupert Murdoch’s assertion about Trump having crossover appeal, Trump is extraordinarily unpopular with independent voters and Democrats."
"Gallup polling conducted over the past six weeks found Trump with a -27-percentage-point net favorability rating among independent voters, and a -70-point net rating among Democrats; both marks are easily the worst in the GOP field. "
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-really-unpopular-with-general-election-voters/
Would Hillary win against Trump? As things stand, yes. Given all probable developments before November, she still should do but it's likely to be close and Trump could well do it. As you say, his figures right now are dire but those aren't the voters he's pitching to at the moment.0 -
Nowt of Morgans left except the address. It's all Bankers Trust nowrcs1000 said:
I don't think Deutsche Bank has that kind of power! (Not to mention the fact that the DB investment bank is pretty much all in London; it's the old Morgan Grenfell)Blue_rog said:O/T
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/12122506/Devastating-Brexit-will-consign-Europe-to-a-second-rate-world-power-warns-Deutsche-Bank.html
If they're so worried, give us a good deal to present to the UK electorate!
0 -
We've had this year's one and only AV thread.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
That must be unconstitutional.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Sunil J. Prasannan is calling for a total and complete shut-down of AV Threads entering PB.com, until our Forum's representatives can figure out what is going on!TheScreamingEagles said:There's an ill wind coming from a Trump nomination
If I do more than one AV thread per year, you'll get a sugar rush.
But fret not, there will be real excitement this year. Mike and I have both realised I will be guest editor during the EURef.
As we all know. nothing major happens when Mike goes on holiday.0 -
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/12122506/Devastating-Brexit-will-consign-Europe-to-a-second-rate-world-power-warns-Deutsche-Bank.html
Interesting angle eh? i.e. that 'Europe' is a 'world power', or should be. A good example of the completely different mindset most Europeans have about what the EU's purpose is.
If the UK's exit sabotages this notion of 'Europe a Nation' then so much the better.
0 -
I've pulled out the credit card to lay Jeb to the same liability.TheWhiteRabbit said:
I've laid him out to £500... not sure I can really risk much more, even on the very unlikeliest of possibilities.Richard_Nabavi said:
One of my better bets was laying Jeb at 2.9.shadsy said:
Yeah, it's been odd how low that has stayed for weeks. Wonder if TeamJeb! are spending some of that war chest on ramping his price?Pulpstar said:I've stuck another wodge against Jeb Bush, his price of 9.8 is an abomination.
Unfortunately I also laid Trump at 7.6!
No holiday for the Casino household this year if I lose.0 -
I think the political Zeitgeist matters more than specific big business links. Would any of the other republicans have done better in 2012?Sean_F said:
A candidate closely associated with Big Business didn't win in 2012, and such a candidate would probably do worse overall this time around.Danny565 said:
For all the talk about how the Republicans supposedly hit their ceiling with white working class voters in 2012, it's often forgotten there was a crucial section of the WWC vote which they didn't do so well in that year: the blue-collar industrial workers from the Rust Belt, who thought Romney would lay them off and ship their jobs out to China to maximise his own profits. As you say, Trump could do much better with those voters.Sean_F said:
Correct. No candidate is going to win 486 EC votes to 52.david_herdson said:
Who is going to Goldwater them? Were they facing Obama-08 then possibly, but Sanders or Hillary-16 is a very different (indeed, beatable) prospect.logical_song said:
Bush or some other moderate Republican may do well in 2020 if Trump or Cruz get the nomination and then get 'Goldwatered' this time.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Fingers crossedRichard_Nabavi said:
Unfortunately for Rubio, who otherwise would be well-placed to break out of the also-ran pack, it looks as though Kasich is going to shaft him in NH. At least that is how it looks at the moment.
In all serious per BurnhamCooperKendall people are inclined to leave things far too late and do too little. Add in a strong performance for Kasich in NH, there's 0% chance he drops out.
I think Bush 2020 is more likely, TBH.
In fact, the only Republican State in 2012 that looks vulnerable to me is North Carolina, I could see Trump doing worse in Florida, Virginia, Colarado, and Nevada than Romney did, but conversely, I'd see Rust Belt States like Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin coming into play.0 -
Jeb ain't coming back.TheWhiteRabbit said:
At some point Bush surely will price his chances in 2020 better than 2015.logical_song said:
Bush or some other moderate Republican may do well in 2020 if Trump or Cruz get the nomination and then get 'Goldwatered' this time.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Fingers crossedRichard_Nabavi said:
Unfortunately for Rubio, who otherwise would be well-placed to break out of the also-ran pack, it looks as though Kasich is going to shaft him in NH. At least that is how it looks at the moment.
In all serious per BurnhamCooperKendall people are inclined to leave things far too late and do too little. Add in a strong performance for Kasich in NH, there's 0% chance he drops out.
I think Bush 2020 is more likely, TBH.0
