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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Trump could be unstoppable if he wins Iowa next Monday

SystemSystem Posts: 11,724
edited January 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Trump could be unstoppable if he wins Iowa next Monday

The organisational challenges at the state’s caucuses are formidable. Probably only about 12% of those eligible take part in the complex process of attending a two hour meeting in one of the 1,600 precincts where caucus meetings are held.

Read the full story here


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Comments

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    eekeek Posts: 25,094
    First (as Trump will be)
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,702
    There's an ill wind coming from a Trump nomination
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,702
    edited January 2016
    Go Rubio and Cruz

    https://twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/691982102728957952
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    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    FPT JenS said: Death By Christmas.


    Too Agatha Christie for our Mr T.

    How about The Beautiful Harbinger?
  • Options
    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Cruz's problem is he is a donations politician at the most anti establishment period since the war.

    They all court the money and they all court the media, except for one.
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    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    edited January 2016
    Cruz's plea is bullshit - Trump won't be unstoppable even if he wins both Iowa & New Hampshire. Ted Cruz could, however, be unrecoverable.
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,254
    @SeanT: The Unseen Eye? The Unseen Child?
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,094
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Go Rubio and Cruz

    https://twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/691982102728957952

    As Trump moderates his views a bit (and he will as he no longer has to stand out from the crowd) many who are currently calling him unacceptable will move back to the undecided column.
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,713
    The Janus Omen

    although thats more new year.
  • Options
    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Tissue_Price said:

    Cruz's plea is bullshit - Trump won't be unstoppable even if he wins both Iowa & New Hampshire. Ted Cruz could, however, be unrecoverable.

    Agreed
  • Options
    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,291
    That photo for SeanT's book cover, with the tree lined lane & perspective seems to be very suggestive. Perhaps Dr Freud would have read too much into it. Does it remind you of your mother?
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    As someone pointed out yesterday, Trump is really a New York liberal pretending to be a Conservative.
  • Options
    DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    For SeanT:

    How about "Bad tidings we bring"
    or something along those lines...
  • Options
    flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903
    To DaemonBarber - FPT

    'Bad Tidings We Bring' is a great title - but for an episode of Midsommer Murders perhaps.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,033
    I've stuck another wodge against Jeb Bush, his price of 9.8 is an abomination.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,286
    Poor Jeb! How did he end up as the most unacceptable candidate?
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    https://twitter.com/Morning_Joe/status/691962211418271745

    Rumour has it, it might be Sen. Jeff Sessions.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,220
    dr_spyn said:

    That photo for SeanT's book cover, with the tree lined lane & perspective seems to be very suggestive. Perhaps Dr Freud would have read too much into it. Does it remind you of your mother?

    I am, of course, NAE. But that picture would fit better with the outline plot if there was a dark avenue of trees, with a gate blocking it off halfway down. The gate being the prediction, and the unknown lying beyond.

    I was thinking of joke titles for the book, but they were all too cornea ...
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''As someone pointed out yesterday, Trump is really a New York liberal pretending to be a Conservative. ''

    I guess there aren't too many New York liberals who advocate walls and banning muslim immigrants.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    taffys said:

    ''As someone pointed out yesterday, Trump is really a New York liberal pretending to be a Conservative. ''

    I guess there aren't too many New York liberals who advocate walls and banning muslim immigrants.

    They wouldn't say so in public, yes.
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    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,739
    AndyJS said:

    As someone pointed out yesterday, Trump is really a New York liberal pretending to be a Conservative.

    Yes, getting Mexico to build a wall along the border and excluding people because of their religion shows that he is obviously a liberal at heart.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,220
    Actually:

    "Low vision" / "Deep vision"?
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Poor Jeb! How did he end up as the most unacceptable candidate?

    He IS the establishment.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,024
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Go Rubio and Cruz

    Twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/691982102728957952

    It's the huge negatives for Bush and Christie that stand out in that poll. Christie could well drop out after Iowa and NH, but for how long will Bush and his large piggy bank keep going?
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''They wouldn't say so in public, yes. ''

    If that's what the New York liberals are saying in private, then goodness knows what the Alabama rednecks are saying....
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Tissue_Price said:

    Cruz's plea is bullshit - Trump won't be unstoppable even if he wins both Iowa & New Hampshire. Ted Cruz could, however, be unrecoverable.

    And how would Trump lose if he wins all early states?
    He is leading in every single state by a landslide except Texas.
    He will get the momentum, he will have no competitor, the media will crown him the winner and that will be it.

    Already many former sworn enemies of his are licking his @ss , since they think he's inevitable and want to cozy with the winner.
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    DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    flightpath01 said:

    To DaemonBarber - FPT

    'Bad Tidings We Bring' is a great title - but for an episode of Midsommer Murders perhaps.

    Actually I think it may well have been a MSM episode... <googles/>
    hmm close: MSM: Bad Tidings
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    WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    From the plot summary of @SeanT's book the character you identify with is the mother.

    What about "The Last Mother"? (Unclear which mother it refers to)

    I guess it has been used before but I don't find it when I Google (except with "Fucker Breathing" after it).
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,033
    Sandpit said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Go Rubio and Cruz

    Twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/691982102728957952

    It's the huge negatives for Bush and Christie that stand out in that poll. Christie could well drop out after Iowa and NH, but for how long will Bush and his large piggy bank keep going?
    Trump will be delighted for Jeb to stay in the race. Keeps the "sensible conservative" vote totally split with Rubio. If Jeb drops out, Rubio has a prayer. But he won't.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,524
    That cover makes me think

    "The way through the woods"

    Apart from being one of my favourite poems I think it was used for a TV episode of Morse but not for a novel. The allusions to a popular ghost poem should create the right atmosphere.
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    DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    DavidL said:

    That cover makes me think

    "The way through the woods"

    Apart from being one of my favourite poems I think it was used for a TV episode of Morse but not for a novel. The allusions to a popular ghost poem should create the right atmosphere.

    Left-field...

    The Axe Will Fall
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,229
    Apparently, Rubio's ground organisation in Iowa is awful
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,618
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    There's an ill wind coming from a Trump nomination

    Sunil J. Prasannan is calling for a total and complete shut-down of AV Threads entering PB.com, until our Forum's representatives can figure out what is going on!
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    I thought it was ghost story boring. Derivative.
    DavidL said:

    That cover makes me think

    "The way through the woods"

    Apart from being one of my favourite poems I think it was used for a TV episode of Morse but not for a novel. The allusions to a popular ghost poem should create the right atmosphere.

  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    DavidL said:

    That cover makes me think

    "The way through the woods"

    Apart from being one of my favourite poems I think it was used for a TV episode of Morse but not for a novel. The allusions to a popular ghost poem should create the right atmosphere.

    Her Journey's End
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,024
    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Go Rubio and Cruz

    Twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/691982102728957952

    It's the huge negatives for Bush and Christie that stand out in that poll. Christie could well drop out after Iowa and NH, but for how long will Bush and his large piggy bank keep going?
    Trump will be delighted for Jeb to stay in the race. Keeps the "sensible conservative" vote totally split with Rubio. If Jeb drops out, Rubio has a prayer. But he won't.
    Quite. If Trump wins the early states then the others will quickly have to unite behind one man as the Stop Trump candidate. The obvious choice is Rubio, but will enough others drop out and endorse him before the man with the big hair becomes unstoppable?
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,033
    One of two things happens price wise after Iowa.

    Either Trump goes odds on and Cruz heads out to around 20s. Or Cruz comes back in to around 3-1, with Trump drifting back out to 2-1.

    Crucial state - for Cruz probably moreso than Trump.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    @SeanT "Out Of The Mouths Of Children"
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,229
    Speedy said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    Cruz's plea is bullshit - Trump won't be unstoppable even if he wins both Iowa & New Hampshire. Ted Cruz could, however, be unrecoverable.

    And how would Trump lose if he wins all early states?
    He is leading in every single state by a landslide except Texas.
    He will get the momentum, he will have no competitor, the media will crown him the winner and that will be it.

    Already many former sworn enemies of his are licking his @ss , since they think he's inevitable and want to cozy with the winner.
    If Trump wins Iowa, then he has to be 85+% chance of getting the nomination.

    But it would still be *possible* for him to lose.
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,464
    Speedy said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    Cruz's plea is bullshit - Trump won't be unstoppable even if he wins both Iowa & New Hampshire. Ted Cruz could, however, be unrecoverable.

    And how would Trump lose if he wins all early states?
    He is leading in every single state by a landslide except Texas.
    He will get the momentum, he will have no competitor, the media will crown him the winner and that will be it.

    Already many former sworn enemies of his are licking his @ss , since they think he's inevitable and want to cozy with the winner.
    He's not leading in Iowa by a landslide and may well lose there. I agree with Mike though, if Trump wins the caucus, I can't see him not going on to take the nomination: it will reinforce his already substantial strength everywhere else.
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,464
    edited January 2016
    taffys said:

    Poor Jeb! How did he end up as the most unacceptable candidate?

    He IS the establishment.

    You've answered your own question.

    Edit - no, you answered someone else's question but didn't do the 'blockquote' thingy.

    Anyway, I agree. Jeb also has no charisma.
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    By 2020, Osborne will have been an MP for 20 years - too long to be leader? He's in good company @jameskirkup https://t.co/r2YFIvEsrx
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,524
    So far the Republican nomination has been the Labour party leadership election redux.

    One clear leader who is not the flavour of the month with the party establishment; everyone else more interested in positioning themselves against the other "serious" candidates than attacking him; the leader grabbing all the headlines with a series of off the wall statements; no one else having much to say; last minute panic as the also rans suddenly grasp this is serious; some half hearted attacks when it is already too late and disaster ensues.

    Only the last chapter has yet to be written. Everything else is as spooky as a SeanT novel.
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    Pulpstar said:

    One of two things happens price wise after Iowa.

    Either Trump goes odds on and Cruz heads out to around 20s. Or Cruz comes back in to around 3-1, with Trump drifting back out to 2-1.

    Crucial state - for Cruz probably moreso than Trump.

    If Trump loses Iowa (assuming he comes second), wins NH, then he should still be regarded as a 45% at the presidency, as he is now, IMO.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,030
    edited January 2016
    I Hope You're Lying.

    This weather's a bit rubbish. High winds make the dog giddy, which is less than delightful when we're next to a road...

    Edited extra bit: Deceit Or Death?
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    edited January 2016
    That's a great affair title. Knowledge, suspicion and fear. And perverse hope.

    I'd pick that up.
    Morris_Dancer said:

    I Hope You're Lying.

    This weather's a bit rubbish. High winds make the dog giddy, which is less than delightful when we're next to a road...

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    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    DavidL said:

    So far the Republican nomination has been the Labour party leadership election redux.

    One clear leader who is not the flavour of the month with the party establishment; everyone else more interested in positioning themselves against the other "serious" candidates than attacking him; the leader grabbing all the headlines with a series of off the wall statements; no one else having much to say; last minute panic as the also rans suddenly grasp this is serious; some half hearted attacks when it is already too late and disaster ensues.

    Only the last chapter has yet to be written. Everything else is as spooky as a SeanT novel.

    The electorate is perhaps sufficiently different though (primaries as opposed to membership), the process has a clear structural bias towards establishment candidates, and the election is (or can be) drawn out over months. Trump is himself a backlash; is there time for a backlash to the backlash?
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    richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    edited January 2016
    OGH...do you mind...we are discussing book titles here....
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Plato_Says said:

    By 2020, Osborne will have been an MP for 20 years - too long to be leader? He's in good company @jameskirkup https://t.co/r2YFIvEsrx

    Osborne was the youngest Tory MP in 2001 by nearly 5 years.
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    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,873
    Final pitch, based on the pic, before going to be useful member of society:

    The Stepstone Teller or The Stepstone Seer
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,033
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    One of two things happens price wise after Iowa.

    Either Trump goes odds on and Cruz heads out to around 20s. Or Cruz comes back in to around 3-1, with Trump drifting back out to 2-1.

    Crucial state - for Cruz probably moreso than Trump.

    If Trump loses Iowa (assuming he comes second), wins NH, then he should still be regarded as a 45% at the presidency, as he is now, IMO.
    For sure. He'll drift though as the market right now is pre-Iowa.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    I don't think you can consider Iowa and New Hampshire from the point of view of just Cruz and Trump; equally important, perhaps more important, is what happens amongst the other candidates. The race will be transformed if one of them emerges as the clear alternative to the top two.

    Unfortunately for Rubio, who otherwise would be well-placed to break out of the also-ran pack, it looks as though Kasich is going to shaft him in NH. At least that is how it looks at the moment.
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    shadsyshadsy Posts: 289
    Pulpstar said:

    I've stuck another wodge against Jeb Bush, his price of 9.8 is an abomination.

    Yeah, it's been odd how low that has stayed for weeks. Wonder if TeamJeb! are spending some of that war chest on ramping his price?
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    shadsy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I've stuck another wodge against Jeb Bush, his price of 9.8 is an abomination.

    Yeah, it's been odd how low that has stayed for weeks. Wonder if TeamJeb! are spending some of that war chest on ramping his price?
    One of my better bets was laying Jeb at 2.9.

    Unfortunately I also laid Trump at 7.6!
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    EyeSpyMP
    Newcastle University yesterday: @TimFarron saying how 8 @LibDems are now the official opposition to the Tories.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,033
    shadsy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I've stuck another wodge against Jeb Bush, his price of 9.8 is an abomination.

    Yeah, it's been odd how low that has stayed for weeks. Wonder if TeamJeb! are spending some of that war chest on ramping his price?
    Are you taking many bets on Jeb ?
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    Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,819
    Plato_Says said:

    EyeSpyMP
    Newcastle University yesterday: @TimFarron saying how 8 @LibDems are now the official opposition to the Tories.

    Delete "official" and add "only sane" and that's arguably accurate :)
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    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Andy_Cooke said:

    Plato_Says said:

    EyeSpyMP
    Newcastle University yesterday: @TimFarron saying how 8 @LibDems are now the official opposition to the Tories.

    Delete "official" and add "only sane" and that's arguably accurate :)
    They may be a reasonable thought, but no one is listening or indeed cares about the LD's, the only story in town is how Labour are tearing themselves apart.
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    shadsy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I've stuck another wodge against Jeb Bush, his price of 9.8 is an abomination.

    Yeah, it's been odd how low that has stayed for weeks. Wonder if TeamJeb! are spending some of that war chest on ramping his price?
    One of my better bets was laying Jeb at 2.9.

    Unfortunately I also laid Trump at 7.6!
    I've laid him out to £500... not sure I can really risk much more, even on the very unlikeliest of possibilities.
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    stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,780
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    One of two things happens price wise after Iowa.

    Either Trump goes odds on and Cruz heads out to around 20s. Or Cruz comes back in to around 3-1, with Trump drifting back out to 2-1.

    Crucial state - for Cruz probably moreso than Trump.

    If Trump loses Iowa (assuming he comes second), wins NH, then he should still be regarded as a 45% at the presidency, as he is now, IMO.
    TheWhiteRabbit.

    This doesn't make sense. Trump can't be regarded as 45% for the Presidency before Iowa AND after coming 2nd in Iowa. He's odds on favourite to win Iowa. You must surely rate his chances NOW of being the nominee as a bigger percentage than 45% IF after coming 2nd in Iowa, (currently an odds against likelihood), he is THEN considered a 45% chance
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    Richard_Nabavi said:


    Unfortunately for Rubio, who otherwise would be well-placed to break out of the also-ran pack, it looks as though Kasich is going to shaft him in NH. At least that is how it looks at the moment.

    Fingers crossed

    In all serious per BurnhamCooperKendall people are inclined to leave things far too late and do too little. Add in a strong performance for Kasich in NH, there's 0% chance he drops out.

    I think Bush 2020 is more likely, TBH.
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    shadsyshadsy Posts: 289
    Pulpstar said:

    shadsy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I've stuck another wodge against Jeb Bush, his price of 9.8 is an abomination.

    Yeah, it's been odd how low that has stayed for weeks. Wonder if TeamJeb! are spending some of that war chest on ramping his price?
    Are you taking many bets on Jeb ?
    Yes, but that could be just arbers as we've been a little bit bigger on Bush than exchange prices for periods.
  • Options
    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    stjohn said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    One of two things happens price wise after Iowa.

    Either Trump goes odds on and Cruz heads out to around 20s. Or Cruz comes back in to around 3-1, with Trump drifting back out to 2-1.

    Crucial state - for Cruz probably moreso than Trump.

    If Trump loses Iowa (assuming he comes second), wins NH, then he should still be regarded as a 45% at the presidency, as he is now, IMO.
    TheWhiteRabbit.

    This doesn't make sense. Trump can't be regarded as 45% for the Presidency before Iowa AND after coming 2nd in Iowa. He's odds on favourite to win Iowa. You must surely rate his chances NOW of being the nominee as a bigger percentage than 45% IF after coming 2nd in Iowa, (currently an odds against likelihood), he is THEN considered a 45% chance
    Sorry I didn't make things clear.

    If he comes second in Iowa, a drift out to 2/1 is possible.

    But he will come in again if he wins NH.

    The only way he looks bad value is if you think there's a real likelihood he comes second in Iowa and loses NH.
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    watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    Plato_Says said:

    EyeSpyMP
    Newcastle University yesterday: @TimFarron saying how 8 @LibDems are now the official opposition to the Tories.

    Perhaps Farron is referring to his secret army in the HoL?
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    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,739
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:


    Unfortunately for Rubio, who otherwise would be well-placed to break out of the also-ran pack, it looks as though Kasich is going to shaft him in NH. At least that is how it looks at the moment.

    Fingers crossed

    In all serious per BurnhamCooperKendall people are inclined to leave things far too late and do too little. Add in a strong performance for Kasich in NH, there's 0% chance he drops out.

    I think Bush 2020 is more likely, TBH.
    Bush or some other moderate Republican may do well in 2020 if Trump or Cruz get the nomination and then get 'Goldwatered' this time.
  • Options
    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    edited January 2016
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    stjohn said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    One of two things happens price wise after Iowa.

    Either Trump goes odds on and Cruz heads out to around 20s. Or Cruz comes back in to around 3-1, with Trump drifting back out to 2-1.

    Crucial state - for Cruz probably moreso than Trump.

    If Trump loses Iowa (assuming he comes second), wins NH, then he should still be regarded as a 45% at the presidency, as he is now, IMO.
    TheWhiteRabbit.

    This doesn't make sense. Trump can't be regarded as 45% for the Presidency before Iowa AND after coming 2nd in Iowa. He's odds on favourite to win Iowa. You must surely rate his chances NOW of being the nominee as a bigger percentage than 45% IF after coming 2nd in Iowa, (currently an odds against likelihood), he is THEN considered a 45% chance
    Sorry I didn't make things clear.

    If he comes second in Iowa, a drift out to 2/1 is possible.

    But he will come in again if he wins NH.

    The only way he looks bad value is if you think there's a real likelihood he comes second in Iowa and loses NH.
    I'd say something like 

    # | Result Iowa | Result NH | Likelihood | % chance of nomination thereafter
    1 | Win  | Win  | 45% | 90%
    2 | Lose | Win  | 45% | 50%
    3 | Win  | Lose | 2%  | 40%
    4 | Lose | Lose | 8%  | 25%
    This would make Trump a 66% chance for the nomination which explains why I am long!
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,033
    edited January 2016
    shadsy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    shadsy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I've stuck another wodge against Jeb Bush, his price of 9.8 is an abomination.

    Yeah, it's been odd how low that has stayed for weeks. Wonder if TeamJeb! are spending some of that war chest on ramping his price?
    Are you taking many bets on Jeb ?
    Yes, but that could be just arbers as we've been a little bit bigger on Bush than exchange prices for periods.
    0.61% yield at 9.8/10-1. :D
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    logical_song said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:


    Unfortunately for Rubio, who otherwise would be well-placed to break out of the also-ran pack, it looks as though Kasich is going to shaft him in NH. At least that is how it looks at the moment.

    Fingers crossed

    In all serious per BurnhamCooperKendall people are inclined to leave things far too late and do too little. Add in a strong performance for Kasich in NH, there's 0% chance he drops out.

    I think Bush 2020 is more likely, TBH.
    Bush or some other moderate Republican may do well in 2020 if Trump or Cruz get the nomination and then get 'Goldwatered' this time.
    At some point Bush surely will price his chances in 2020 better than 2015.
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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    shadsy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    shadsy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I've stuck another wodge against Jeb Bush, his price of 9.8 is an abomination.

    Yeah, it's been odd how low that has stayed for weeks. Wonder if TeamJeb! are spending some of that war chest on ramping his price?
    Are you taking many bets on Jeb ?
    Yes, but that could be just arbers as we've been a little bit bigger on Bush than exchange prices for periods.
    Do you have some sort of automated arb alert so traders can distinguish between arbers and position takers (or inside information)?
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,464
    logical_song said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:


    Unfortunately for Rubio, who otherwise would be well-placed to break out of the also-ran pack, it looks as though Kasich is going to shaft him in NH. At least that is how it looks at the moment.

    Fingers crossed

    In all serious per BurnhamCooperKendall people are inclined to leave things far too late and do too little. Add in a strong performance for Kasich in NH, there's 0% chance he drops out.

    I think Bush 2020 is more likely, TBH.
    Bush or some other moderate Republican may do well in 2020 if Trump or Cruz get the nomination and then get 'Goldwatered' this time.
    Who is going to Goldwater them? Were they facing Obama-08 then possibly, but Sanders or Hillary-16 is a very different (indeed, beatable) prospect.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,033
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    shadsy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    shadsy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I've stuck another wodge against Jeb Bush, his price of 9.8 is an abomination.

    Yeah, it's been odd how low that has stayed for weeks. Wonder if TeamJeb! are spending some of that war chest on ramping his price?
    Are you taking many bets on Jeb ?
    Yes, but that could be just arbers as we've been a little bit bigger on Bush than exchange prices for periods.
    Do you have some sort of automated arb alert so traders can distinguish between arbers and position takers (or inside information)?
    I assume with Jeb Bush he is quite happy to take their money.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,024
    edited January 2016
    Pulpstar said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    shadsy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    shadsy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I've stuck another wodge against Jeb Bush, his price of 9.8 is an abomination.

    Yeah, it's been odd how low that has stayed for weeks. Wonder if TeamJeb! are spending some of that war chest on ramping his price?
    Are you taking many bets on Jeb ?
    Yes, but that could be just arbers as we've been a little bit bigger on Bush than exchange prices for periods.
    Do you have some sort of automated arb alert so traders can distinguish between arbers and position takers (or inside information)?
    I assume with Jeb Bush he is quite happy to take their money.
    He'll be happier taking money at 10/1 than the 25/1 or 50/1 which might be a more realistic price.

    Bush's strategy is clearly to be in the last few by sheer force of money. Is the volume of cash for him holding the price down, or do the Republican Establishment think that if they can get him to the Convention they can somehow broker a deal for him?
  • Options
    sarissasarissa Posts: 1,804
    JosiasJessop said:

    dr_spyn said:

    That photo for SeanT's book cover, with the tree lined lane & perspective seems to be very suggestive. Perhaps Dr Freud would have read too much into it. Does it remind you of your mother?

    I am, of course, NAE. But that picture would fit better with the outline plot if there was a dark avenue of trees, with a gate blocking it off halfway down. The gate being the prediction, and the unknown lying beyond.

    I was thinking of joke titles for the book, but they were all too cornea ...
    Like Christmas Prescience?
  • Options
    NorfolkTilIDieNorfolkTilIDie Posts: 1,268
    logical_song said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:


    Unfortunately for Rubio, who otherwise would be well-placed to break out of the also-ran pack, it looks as though Kasich is going to shaft him in NH. At least that is how it looks at the moment.

    Fingers crossed

    In all serious per BurnhamCooperKendall people are inclined to leave things far too late and do too little. Add in a strong performance for Kasich in NH, there's 0% chance he drops out.

    I think Bush 2020 is more likely, TBH.
    Bush or some other moderate Republican may do well in 2020 if Trump or Cruz get the nomination and then get 'Goldwatered' this time.
    Prolly true for Cruz but I suspect a Trump loss will be grouped with McCain and Romney as not being a true conservative.
  • Options
    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,739
    david_herdson said:

    logical_song said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:


    Unfortunately for Rubio, who otherwise would be well-placed to break out of the also-ran pack, it looks as though Kasich is going to shaft him in NH. At least that is how it looks at the moment.

    Fingers crossed

    In all serious per BurnhamCooperKendall people are inclined to leave things far too late and do too little. Add in a strong performance for Kasich in NH, there's 0% chance he drops out.

    I think Bush 2020 is more likely, TBH.
    Bush or some other moderate Republican may do well in 2020 if Trump or Cruz get the nomination and then get 'Goldwatered' this time.
    Who is going to Goldwater them? Were they facing Obama-08 then possibly, but Sanders or Hillary-16 is a very different (indeed, beatable) prospect.
    Hillary versus Trump could be an easy win for Hillary.
    "But Trump would start at a disadvantage: Most Americans just really don’t like the guy.

    Contra Rupert Murdoch’s assertion about Trump having crossover appeal, Trump is extraordinarily unpopular with independent voters and Democrats."

    "Gallup polling conducted over the past six weeks found Trump with a -27-percentage-point net favorability rating among independent voters, and a -70-point net rating among Democrats; both marks are easily the worst in the GOP field. "

    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-really-unpopular-with-general-election-voters/
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,013
    david_herdson said:

    logical_song said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:


    Unfortunately for Rubio, who otherwise would be well-placed to break out of the also-ran pack, it looks as though Kasich is going to shaft him in NH. At least that is how it looks at the moment.

    Fingers crossed

    In all serious per BurnhamCooperKendall people are inclined to leave things far too late and do too little. Add in a strong performance for Kasich in NH, there's 0% chance he drops out.

    I think Bush 2020 is more likely, TBH.
    Bush or some other moderate Republican may do well in 2020 if Trump or Cruz get the nomination and then get 'Goldwatered' this time.
    Who is going to Goldwater them? Were they facing Obama-08 then possibly, but Sanders or Hillary-16 is a very different (indeed, beatable) prospect.
    Correct. No candidate is going to win 486 EC votes to 52.

    In fact, the only Republican State in 2012 that looks vulnerable to me is North Carolina, I could see Trump doing worse in Florida, Virginia, Colarado, and Nevada than Romney did, but conversely, I'd see Rust Belt States like Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin coming into play.

  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,702
    edited January 2016
    Can anyone see any value on this SPIN market on the London Mayoral election?

    http://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/politics/uk/group_b.420c8db7-be75-4a06-8b09-3ab5e8d0646c/london-mayoral-election-2016

    Edit: I reckon Winston McKenzie's a sell.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,229
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    stjohn said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    One of two things happens price wise after Iowa.

    Either Trump goes odds on and Cruz heads out to around 20s. Or Cruz comes back in to around 3-1, with Trump drifting back out to 2-1.

    Crucial state - for Cruz probably moreso than Trump.

    If Trump loses Iowa (assuming he comes second), wins NH, then he should still be regarded as a 45% at the presidency, as he is now, IMO.
    TheWhiteRabbit.

    This doesn't make sense. Trump can't be regarded as 45% for the Presidency before Iowa AND after coming 2nd in Iowa. He's odds on favourite to win Iowa. You must surely rate his chances NOW of being the nominee as a bigger percentage than 45% IF after coming 2nd in Iowa, (currently an odds against likelihood), he is THEN considered a 45% chance
    Sorry I didn't make things clear.

    If he comes second in Iowa, a drift out to 2/1 is possible.

    But he will come in again if he wins NH.

    The only way he looks bad value is if you think there's a real likelihood he comes second in Iowa and loses NH.
    I'd say something like 

    # | Result Iowa | Result NH | Likelihood | % chance of nomination thereafter
    1 | Win  | Win  | 45% | 90%
    2 | Lose | Win  | 45% | 50%
    3 | Win  | Lose | 2%  | 40%
    4 | Lose | Lose | 8%  | 25%
    This would make Trump a 66% chance for the nomination which explains why I am long!
    If he's lose, lose, he won't be 25% chance for the presidency, he'll be sub 10%, because something disastrous will have happened. The only way Trump loses NH is if something major comes out about him
  • Options
    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Sean_F said:

    david_herdson said:

    logical_song said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:


    Unfortunately for Rubio, who otherwise would be well-placed to break out of the also-ran pack, it looks as though Kasich is going to shaft him in NH. At least that is how it looks at the moment.

    Fingers crossed

    In all serious per BurnhamCooperKendall people are inclined to leave things far too late and do too little. Add in a strong performance for Kasich in NH, there's 0% chance he drops out.

    I think Bush 2020 is more likely, TBH.
    Bush or some other moderate Republican may do well in 2020 if Trump or Cruz get the nomination and then get 'Goldwatered' this time.
    Who is going to Goldwater them? Were they facing Obama-08 then possibly, but Sanders or Hillary-16 is a very different (indeed, beatable) prospect.
    Correct. No candidate is going to win 486 EC votes to 52.

    In fact, the only Republican State in 2012 that looks vulnerable to me is North Carolina, I could see Trump doing worse in Florida, Virginia, Colarado, and Nevada than Romney did, but conversely, I'd see Rust Belt States like Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin coming into play.

    For all the talk about how the Republicans supposedly hit their ceiling with white working class voters in 2012, it's often forgotten there was a crucial section of the WWC vote which they didn't do so well in that year: the blue-collar industrial workers from the Rust Belt, who thought Romney would lay them off and ship their jobs out to China to maximise his own profits. As you say, Trump could do much better with those voters.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,033
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Can anyone see any value on this SPIN market on the London Mayoral election?

    http://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/politics/uk/group_b.420c8db7-be75-4a06-8b09-3ab5e8d0646c/london-mayoral-election-2016

    Edit: I reckon Winston McKenzie's a sell.

    You might be right.

    Someone needs to stick up a Winson vs Lib Dem match bet market though.
  • Options
    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    edited January 2016
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Can anyone see any value on this SPIN market on the London Mayoral election?

    http://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/politics/uk/group_b.420c8db7-be75-4a06-8b09-3ab5e8d0646c/london-mayoral-election-2016

    Edit: I reckon Winston McKenzie's a sell.

    Bit rubbish not having 3rd = 10, would be far more interesting then.

    The only value would be in a sell if you thought there was a real chance of either Sadiq or Zac not making the starting line.

    EDIT: Actually, Galloway is a buy as per Betfair. (49.5/0.5 = 99/1, and that's not taking into account 2nd place). 60.0 to lay.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,702
    Pulpstar said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Can anyone see any value on this SPIN market on the London Mayoral election?

    http://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/politics/uk/group_b.420c8db7-be75-4a06-8b09-3ab5e8d0646c/london-mayoral-election-2016

    Edit: I reckon Winston McKenzie's a sell.

    You might be right.

    Someone needs to stick up a Winson vs Lib Dem match bet market though.
    The most obvious sell since selling UKIP seats in Scotland.
  • Options
    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    It's quite possible IMO that with Trump as candidate, the Republicans could win Michigan and Pennsylvania for the first time since the 1980s, at the same time as the Democrats keep hold of Virginia the former Republican stronghold.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,033
    I think if Bernie gets the nomination, Vermont may well be in the bag for them.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,702
    Tissue_Price said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Can anyone see any value on this SPIN market on the London Mayoral election?

    http://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/politics/uk/group_b.420c8db7-be75-4a06-8b09-3ab5e8d0646c/london-mayoral-election-2016

    Edit: I reckon Winston McKenzie's a sell.

    Bit rubbish not having 3rd = 10, would be far more interesting then.

    The only value would be in a sell if you thought there was a real chance of either Sadiq or Zac not making the starting line.

    EDIT: Actually, Galloway is a buy as per Betfair. (49.5/0.5 = 99/1, and that's not taking into account 2nd place). 60.0 to lay.
    I like your thinking.
  • Options
    Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    O/T

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/12122506/Devastating-Brexit-will-consign-Europe-to-a-second-rate-world-power-warns-Deutsche-Bank.html

    If they're so worried, give us a good deal to present to the UK electorate!
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,013
    Danny565 said:

    Sean_F said:

    david_herdson said:

    logical_song said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:


    Unfortunately for Rubio, who otherwise would be well-placed to break out of the also-ran pack, it looks as though Kasich is going to shaft him in NH. At least that is how it looks at the moment.

    Fingers crossed

    In all serious per BurnhamCooperKendall people are inclined to leave things far too late and do too little. Add in a strong performance for Kasich in NH, there's 0% chance he drops out.

    I think Bush 2020 is more likely, TBH.
    Bush or some other moderate Republican may do well in 2020 if Trump or Cruz get the nomination and then get 'Goldwatered' this time.
    Who is going to Goldwater them? Were they facing Obama-08 then possibly, but Sanders or Hillary-16 is a very different (indeed, beatable) prospect.
    Correct. No candidate is going to win 486 EC votes to 52.

    In fact, the only Republican State in 2012 that looks vulnerable to me is North Carolina, I could see Trump doing worse in Florida, Virginia, Colarado, and Nevada than Romney did, but conversely, I'd see Rust Belt States like Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin coming into play.

    For all the talk about how the Republicans supposedly hit their ceiling with white working class voters in 2012, it's often forgotten there was a crucial section of the WWC vote which they didn't do so well in that year: the blue-collar industrial workers from the Rust Belt, who thought Romney would lay them off and ship their jobs out to China to maximise his own profits. As you say, Trump could do much better with those voters.
    A candidate closely associated with Big Business didn't win in 2012, and such a candidate would probably do worse overall this time around.
  • Options
    Hertsmere_PubgoerHertsmere_Pubgoer Posts: 3,476
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    There's an ill wind coming from a Trump nomination

    Sunil J. Prasannan is calling for a total and complete shut-down of AV Threads entering PB.com, until our Forum's representatives can figure out what is going on!
    That must be unconstitutional.
  • Options
    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    Tissue_Price said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Can anyone see any value on this SPIN market on the London Mayoral election?

    http://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/politics/uk/group_b.420c8db7-be75-4a06-8b09-3ab5e8d0646c/london-mayoral-election-2016

    Edit: I reckon Winston McKenzie's a sell.

    Bit rubbish not having 3rd = 10, would be far more interesting then.

    The only value would be in a sell if you thought there was a real chance of either Sadiq or Zac not making the starting line.

    EDIT: Actually, Galloway is a buy as per Betfair. (49.5/0.5 = 99/1, and that's not taking into account 2nd place). 60.0 to lay.
    Arrr. Why did you have to point that out?

    Stake; £50

    "Your bet has been referred to a trader, please wait for a response..."

    "Sorry this is a time limited price"

    New stake £18
  • Options
    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    edited January 2016
    Pong said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Can anyone see any value on this SPIN market on the London Mayoral election?

    http://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/politics/uk/group_b.420c8db7-be75-4a06-8b09-3ab5e8d0646c/london-mayoral-election-2016

    Edit: I reckon Winston McKenzie's a sell.

    Bit rubbish not having 3rd = 10, would be far more interesting then.

    The only value would be in a sell if you thought there was a real chance of either Sadiq or Zac not making the starting line.

    EDIT: Actually, Galloway is a buy as per Betfair. (49.5/0.5 = 99/1, and that's not taking into account 2nd place). 60.0 to lay.
    Arrr. Why did you have to point that out?

    Stake; £50

    "Your bet has been referred to a trader, please wait for a response..."

    "Sorry this is a time limited price"

    New stake £18
    That's all your doing (I don't expect anyone else has tried to play). Still a buy at 1 if you believe betfair (I don't).
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,033
    Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    There's an ill wind coming from a Trump nomination

    Sunil J. Prasannan is calling for a total and complete shut-down of AV Threads entering PB.com, until our Forum's representatives can figure out what is going on!
    That must be unconstitutional.
    The best part of that was the way he used the 3rd person voice, and the past tense.

    It was a wonder of modern English.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,229
    Blue_rog said:

    O/T

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/12122506/Devastating-Brexit-will-consign-Europe-to-a-second-rate-world-power-warns-Deutsche-Bank.html

    If they're so worried, give us a good deal to present to the UK electorate!

    I don't think Deutsche Bank has that kind of power! (Not to mention the fact that the DB investment bank is pretty much all in London; it's the old Morgan Grenfell)
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,464
    logical_song said:

    david_herdson said:

    logical_song said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:


    Unfortunately for Rubio, who otherwise would be well-placed to break out of the also-ran pack, it looks as though Kasich is going to shaft him in NH. At least that is how it looks at the moment.

    Fingers crossed

    In all serious per BurnhamCooperKendall people are inclined to leave things far too late and do too little. Add in a strong performance for Kasich in NH, there's 0% chance he drops out.

    I think Bush 2020 is more likely, TBH.
    Bush or some other moderate Republican may do well in 2020 if Trump or Cruz get the nomination and then get 'Goldwatered' this time.
    Who is going to Goldwater them? Were they facing Obama-08 then possibly, but Sanders or Hillary-16 is a very different (indeed, beatable) prospect.
    Hillary versus Trump could be an easy win for Hillary.
    "But Trump would start at a disadvantage: Most Americans just really don’t like the guy.

    Contra Rupert Murdoch’s assertion about Trump having crossover appeal, Trump is extraordinarily unpopular with independent voters and Democrats."

    "Gallup polling conducted over the past six weeks found Trump with a -27-percentage-point net favorability rating among independent voters, and a -70-point net rating among Democrats; both marks are easily the worst in the GOP field. "

    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-really-unpopular-with-general-election-voters/
    I don't think it's quite that simple. There's a very long way to go between here and November and the polls can change, not least because there are also a lot of people who really don't like Hillary either. She is Washington entitlement personified and Trump has a lot he can throw at her on that score.

    Would Hillary win against Trump? As things stand, yes. Given all probable developments before November, she still should do but it's likely to be close and Trump could well do it. As you say, his figures right now are dire but those aren't the voters he's pitching to at the moment.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,229
    Pulpstar said:

    I think if Bernie gets the nomination, Vermont may well be in the bag for them.

    Sanders vs Trump, with no third party candidate could be a walk over for the Republicans
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    rcs1000 said:

    Blue_rog said:

    O/T

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/12122506/Devastating-Brexit-will-consign-Europe-to-a-second-rate-world-power-warns-Deutsche-Bank.html

    If they're so worried, give us a good deal to present to the UK electorate!

    I don't think Deutsche Bank has that kind of power! (Not to mention the fact that the DB investment bank is pretty much all in London; it's the old Morgan Grenfell)
    Nowt of Morgans left except the address. It's all Bankers Trust now ;)
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,702
    Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    There's an ill wind coming from a Trump nomination

    Sunil J. Prasannan is calling for a total and complete shut-down of AV Threads entering PB.com, until our Forum's representatives can figure out what is going on!
    That must be unconstitutional.
    We've had this year's one and only AV thread.

    If I do more than one AV thread per year, you'll get a sugar rush.

    But fret not, there will be real excitement this year. Mike and I have both realised I will be guest editor during the EURef.

    As we all know. nothing major happens when Mike goes on holiday.
  • Options
    runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/12122506/Devastating-Brexit-will-consign-Europe-to-a-second-rate-world-power-warns-Deutsche-Bank.html

    Interesting angle eh? i.e. that 'Europe' is a 'world power', or should be. A good example of the completely different mindset most Europeans have about what the EU's purpose is.

    If the UK's exit sabotages this notion of 'Europe a Nation' then so much the better.

  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,814
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    shadsy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I've stuck another wodge against Jeb Bush, his price of 9.8 is an abomination.

    Yeah, it's been odd how low that has stayed for weeks. Wonder if TeamJeb! are spending some of that war chest on ramping his price?
    One of my better bets was laying Jeb at 2.9.

    Unfortunately I also laid Trump at 7.6!
    I've laid him out to £500... not sure I can really risk much more, even on the very unlikeliest of possibilities.
    I've pulled out the credit card to lay Jeb to the same liability.

    No holiday for the Casino household this year if I lose.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,229
    Sean_F said:

    Danny565 said:

    Sean_F said:

    david_herdson said:

    logical_song said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:


    Unfortunately for Rubio, who otherwise would be well-placed to break out of the also-ran pack, it looks as though Kasich is going to shaft him in NH. At least that is how it looks at the moment.

    Fingers crossed

    In all serious per BurnhamCooperKendall people are inclined to leave things far too late and do too little. Add in a strong performance for Kasich in NH, there's 0% chance he drops out.

    I think Bush 2020 is more likely, TBH.
    Bush or some other moderate Republican may do well in 2020 if Trump or Cruz get the nomination and then get 'Goldwatered' this time.
    Who is going to Goldwater them? Were they facing Obama-08 then possibly, but Sanders or Hillary-16 is a very different (indeed, beatable) prospect.
    Correct. No candidate is going to win 486 EC votes to 52.

    In fact, the only Republican State in 2012 that looks vulnerable to me is North Carolina, I could see Trump doing worse in Florida, Virginia, Colarado, and Nevada than Romney did, but conversely, I'd see Rust Belt States like Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin coming into play.

    For all the talk about how the Republicans supposedly hit their ceiling with white working class voters in 2012, it's often forgotten there was a crucial section of the WWC vote which they didn't do so well in that year: the blue-collar industrial workers from the Rust Belt, who thought Romney would lay them off and ship their jobs out to China to maximise his own profits. As you say, Trump could do much better with those voters.
    A candidate closely associated with Big Business didn't win in 2012, and such a candidate would probably do worse overall this time around.
    I think the political Zeitgeist matters more than specific big business links. Would any of the other republicans have done better in 2012?
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,814
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    logical_song said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:


    Unfortunately for Rubio, who otherwise would be well-placed to break out of the also-ran pack, it looks as though Kasich is going to shaft him in NH. At least that is how it looks at the moment.

    Fingers crossed

    In all serious per BurnhamCooperKendall people are inclined to leave things far too late and do too little. Add in a strong performance for Kasich in NH, there's 0% chance he drops out.

    I think Bush 2020 is more likely, TBH.
    Bush or some other moderate Republican may do well in 2020 if Trump or Cruz get the nomination and then get 'Goldwatered' this time.
    At some point Bush surely will price his chances in 2020 better than 2015.
    Jeb ain't coming back.
This discussion has been closed.