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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The pollsters got the big picture at GE2015 absolutely righ

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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,199
    ydoethur said:

    ... somehow doubt that Corbyn will succeed where Flamel, Jabir and Lord Percy Percy have failed...

    Is it of the purest green, m'lord...? ;)

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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,574
    edited January 2016
    HYUFD said:


    His only hope is enough Tory votes go off to UKIP post EU ref to allow him to scrape through the backdoor in a deal with the Greens and SNP, Plaid and Farron's LDs, though it is highly unlikely

    The problem is for any of those to be serious players - other than the SNP - they will have to take large numbers of votes off existing parties. And since it is unlikely Conservative voters would turn Green or Plaid, we must assume that if they do well it will hurt Labour rather than the Tories. Five thousand voters switching in Wales, for example, could cost Labour 5-6 seats directly to the Conservatives.

    Meanwhile, there are a very small number of seats where anything other than a UKIP tsunami would switch the seat from blue to red, and if they score that highly they are likely to be themselves the kingmakers in a new Tory coalition.

    Labour can only win by converting voters from the centre who are currently voting Tory. Until they ditch Jez, there is no chance of that happening and Labour will remain moribund.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,574
    viewcode said:

    ydoethur said:

    ... somehow doubt that Corbyn will succeed where Flamel, Jabir and Lord Percy Percy have failed...

    Is it of the purest green, m'lord...? ;)

    Well, Corbyn appears to think there's a big demand for policies that look like snot...
  • Options

    Ewww

    Horror as gangs of migrants 'assault female swimmers and masturbate in hot tub'

    Other migrants were caught "emptying their bowels" in the children's pool and masturbating in a hot tub, according to reports.

    They are thought to have been caught on CCTV before laughing at pool staff when challenged about their behaviour.

    Following the allegations, the historic Johannisbad baths in Zwickau, Saxony has banned migrants from the premises until further notice.
    http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/637276/Johannisbad-baths-Rainer-Kallweit-Zwickau-Saxony-Germany

    I find it almost unbelievable that there are individuals that would enjoy defecating in a child's pool, let alone enough of them that they can aggregate in a group. Thank God this is Germany's problem and not ours.

    Why were they released and not charged??
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Pew research
    Chart: The US public's 2016 priorities for the president & Congress https://t.co/qX9ZDr6st8 https://t.co/6u2MBXzc7Dhttps://t.co/X35GP0y2rO
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,199
    ydoethur said:

    viewcode said:

    ydoethur said:

    ... somehow doubt that Corbyn will succeed where Flamel, Jabir and Lord Percy Percy have failed...

    Is it of the purest green, m'lord...? ;)

    Well, Corbyn appears to think there's a big demand for policies that look like snot...
    Well, they look like something exuded from the body, that's for sure... ;)
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,284
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:


    His only hope is enough Tory votes go off to UKIP post EU ref to allow him to scrape through the backdoor in a deal with the Greens and SNP, Plaid and Farron's LDs, though it is highly unlikely

    The problem is for any of those to be serious players - other than the SNP - they will have to take large numbers of votes off existing parties. And since it is unlikely Conservative voters would turn Green or Plaid, we must assume that if they do well it will hurt Labour rather than the Tories. Five thousand voters switching in Wales, for example, could cost Labour 5-6 seats directly to the Conservatives.

    Meanwhile, there are a very small number of seats where anything other than a UKIP tsunami would switch the seat from blue to red, and if they score that highly they are likely to be themselves the kingmakers in a new Tory coalition.

    Labour can only win by converting voters from the centre who are currently voting Tory. Until they ditch Jez, there is no chance of that happening and Labour will remain moribund.
    It would have to be a 10% direct swing from Tory to UKIP in Tory-Labour marginals, though as I say highly unlikely, anyway off to watch the Revenant
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    pbr2013 said:

    viewcode said:

    RobD said:

    Britain invited to rejoin the European Free Trade Association (EFTA): http://t.co/RTFtnqKJVQ #efta #brexit http://t.co/kbKs0TYb3D

    That is hugely useful for Leave. One of the points being made by Europhiles has been whether or not EFTA would want us back. This seems a very clear signal about that.
    A bit misleading, we were invited to join, but not by EFTA themselves. It's basically just a third party saying "hey, why don't you join EFTA".
    Er no. It is two of the four members of EFTA inviting us. They are not a third party.
    If the people in question were in two of the governments of EFTA then your statement "It is two of the four members of EFTA inviting us" would be accurate.

    If I understand correctly, they are not.
    Is there a requirement to be in EFTA to also be part of the EEA?
    No.
    So this EFTA business is a dead issue then
    No. There is a requirement to be in EFTA to be in the EEA. However not all members of EFTA have to be in the EEA.
    My question was 'Is there a requirement to be in EFTA to also be part of the EEA?' The answer came back 'No'
    So that answer is wrong?

    (I don't want this little thread to turn into an Abbot and Costello sketch BTW !)
    Sorry Flightpath my answer wasn't that clear. You do have to be a member of either EFTA or the EU to be in the EEA.

    The EEA is a treaty agreement between the EU and EFTA, signed by each of the member countries and also by the two organisations in their own right. It is not a separate organisation and if we left the EU we would have to rejoin EFTA to be part of the EEA. I can't see how that can change given it is a formal treaty agreement.
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    My eclectic sort-of Fantasy Frontbench (sort of cos they've removed some MPs from the list so there are subs) https://t.co/5adZhrEzPd
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,574
    viewcode said:

    ydoethur said:

    viewcode said:

    ydoethur said:

    ... somehow doubt that Corbyn will succeed where Flamel, Jabir and Lord Percy Percy have failed...

    Is it of the purest green, m'lord...? ;)

    Well, Corbyn appears to think there's a big demand for policies that look like snot...
    Well, they look like something exuded from the body, that's for sure... ;)
    Can't top that one!

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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,013

    Ewww

    Horror as gangs of migrants 'assault female swimmers and masturbate in hot tub'

    Other migrants were caught "emptying their bowels" in the children's pool and masturbating in a hot tub, according to reports.

    They are thought to have been caught on CCTV before laughing at pool staff when challenged about their behaviour.

    Following the allegations, the historic Johannisbad baths in Zwickau, Saxony has banned migrants from the premises until further notice.
    http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/637276/Johannisbad-baths-Rainer-Kallweit-Zwickau-Saxony-Germany
    I find it almost unbelievable that there are individuals that would enjoy defecating in a child's pool, let alone enough of them that they can aggregate in a group. Thank God this is Germany's problem and not ours.

    Why were they released and not charged??

    A surprisingly large number of people lack toilet training.
  • Options
    flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903

    pbr2013 said:

    viewcode said:

    RobD said:

    Britain invited to rejoin the European Free Trade Association (EFTA): http://t.co/RTFtnqKJVQ #efta #brexit http://t.co/kbKs0TYb3D

    That is hugely useful for Leave. One of the points being made by Europhiles has been whether or not EFTA would want us back. This seems a very clear signal about that.
    A bit misleading, we were invited to join, but not by EFTA themselves. It's basically just a third party saying "hey, why don't you join EFTA".
    Er no. It is two of the four members of EFTA inviting us. They are not a third party.
    If the people in question were in two of the governments of EFTA then your statement "It is two of the four members of EFTA inviting us" would be accurate.

    If I understand correctly, they are not.
    Is there a requirement to be in EFTA to also be part of the EEA?
    No.
    So this EFTA business is a dead issue then
    No. There is a requirement to be in EFTA to be in the EEA. However not all members of EFTA have to be in the EEA.
    My question was 'Is there a requirement to be in EFTA to also be part of the EEA?' The answer came back 'No'
    So that answer is wrong?

    (I don't want this little thread to turn into an Abbot and Costello sketch BTW !)
    Sorry Flightpath my answer wasn't that clear. You do have to be a member of either EFTA or the EU to be in the EEA.

    The EEA is a treaty agreement between the EU and EFTA, signed by each of the member countries and also by the two organisations in their own right. It is not a separate organisation and if we left the EU we would have to rejoin EFTA to be part of the EEA. I can't see how that can change given it is a formal treaty agreement.
    This is one reason why I am dubious about a straight jumping of ship from the EU into nowhere.
    Of course if it can be said that we are currently in the EEA and leaving the EU means we stay in the EEA then that might finesse it.
    However I believe that both sides of the argument do not want to discuss the EEA and EFTA.
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    viewcode said:

    Sorry. The 'again' was my confusion as I had answered the same question from Viewpoint.


    Ah, so it's a walkoff, huh?... ;)

    Actually, I may have edged it. From his webpage

    WELCOME TO THE WEBSITE OF MEMBER OF PARLIAMENT THOMAS AESCHI, SWITZERLAND

    Thomas Aeschi has been a member of the Swiss House of Representatives (Nationalrat) since 2011, representing the Canton of Zug as a member of the Swiss People’s Party (SVP). He is a member of the committee on economics and taxation, as well as the EFTA/EU-delegation. He is also a consultant with a leading international management and strategy consulting firm. Previously, Thomas was an analyst in mergers and acquisitions at a leading Swiss bank in Zurich and Melbourne. In 2014, he was nominated by the World Economic Forum as a Young Global Leader. Thomas holds a Master in Public Administration from Harvard University and a Master of Business Administration from the University of St. Gallen where he was also a member of the organizing committee of the St. Gallen Symposium. He also studied at Tel Aviv University in Israel and at University Sains Malaysia, and participated in a one-year American Field Service student exchange at an American high school near Chicago as a teenager. He holds the rank of a first lieutenant in the Swiss military. Thomas enjoys traveling, skiing, and hiking
    .

    Being in the "committee on economics and taxation" doesn't put you in government. Bernard Jenkin is on the European Scrutiny Committee, but he's not in government

    I'll take your point that hs position as an EFTA/EU-delegation member makes him important but, again...that's not in government.

    We would have to check with Nick P but my understanding of Swiss government (which is incredibly confusing) is that there are only 7 actual positions on the Federal Council which is the equivalent of our Government. Everything else is done by those committees (at least at the Federal level).
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    john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    edited January 2016
    @Sean_F

    "richardDodd">Why does Corbyn think the migrants in Calais are the problem for the UK..last I heard Calais was in France'

    'He wants new Labour voters, to replace those he's alienated.'


    Why is he putting pressure on his Socialist comrade Hollande to take care of these people ?

  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,199

    viewcode said:

    Sorry. The 'again' was my confusion as I had answered the same question from Viewpoint.


    Ah, so it's a walkoff, huh?... ;)

    Actually, I may have edged it. From his webpage

    WELCOME TO THE WEBSITE OF MEMBER OF PARLIAMENT THOMAS AESCHI, SWITZERLAND

    Thomas Aeschi has been a member of the Swiss House of Representatives (Nationalrat) since 2011, representing the Canton of Zug as a member of the Swiss People’s Party (SVP). He is a member of the committee on economics and taxation, as well as the EFTA/EU-delegation. He is also a consultant with a leading international management and strategy consulting firm. Previously, Thomas was an analyst in mergers and acquisitions at a leading Swiss bank in Zurich and Melbourne. In 2014, he was nominated by the World Economic Forum as a Young Global Leader. Thomas holds a Master in Public Administration from Harvard University and a Master of Business Administration from the University of St. Gallen where he was also a member of the organizing committee of the St. Gallen Symposium. He also studied at Tel Aviv University in Israel and at University Sains Malaysia, and participated in a one-year American Field Service student exchange at an American high school near Chicago as a teenager. He holds the rank of a first lieutenant in the Swiss military. Thomas enjoys traveling, skiing, and hiking
    .

    Being in the "committee on economics and taxation" doesn't put you in government. Bernard Jenkin is on the European Scrutiny Committee, but he's not in government

    I'll take your point that hs position as an EFTA/EU-delegation member makes him important but, again...that's not in government.

    We would have to check with Nick P but my understanding of Swiss government (which is incredibly confusing) is that there are only 7 actual positions on the Federal Council which is the equivalent of our Government. Everything else is done by those committees (at least at the Federal level).
    I'm not sure where that leaves us, but thank you for the information.
  • Options



    This is one reason why I am dubious about a straight jumping of ship from the EU into nowhere.
    Of course if it can be said that we are currently in the EEA and leaving the EU means we stay in the EEA then that might finesse it.
    However I believe that both sides of the argument do not want to discuss the EEA and EFTA.

    This was a question that Richard North was going to raise with the General Secretary of EFTA who he has had some dealings with in the past. There is a school of thought which I used to belong to but am not so sure about now, that since we are independent signatories of the EEA (as all countries are, independent of the separate signing by the EU) then we would not actually lose our membership and would just rejoin EFTA.

    It is one of those quirks of treaty membership whereby practically we would be leaving the EEA and would have to rejoin via EFTA but legally under treaty law we would still be a member of the EEA as we signed it on our own behalf.

    I want to discuss EFTA and the EEA a lot, as do some of the groups and individuals making up Vote Leave. It is the UKIP tendency who don't want to as they have built their arguments on the shifting sands of immigration.
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    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    Sorry. The 'again' was my confusion as I had answered the same question from Viewpoint.


    Ah, so it's a walkoff, huh?... ;)

    Actually, I may have edged it. From his webpage

    WELCOME TO THE WEBSITE OF MEMBER OF PARLIAMENT THOMAS AESCHI, SWITZERLAND

    Thomas Aeschi has been a member of the Swiss House of Representatives (Nationalrat) since 2011, representing the Canton of Zug as a member of the Swiss People’s Party (SVP). He is a member of the committee on economics and taxation, as well as the EFTA/EU-delegation. He is also a consultant with a leading international management and strategy consulting firm. Previously, Thomas was an analyst in mergers and acquisitions at a leading Swiss bank in Zurich and Melbourne. In 2014, he was nominated by the World Economic Forum as a Young Global Leader. Thomas holds a Master in Public Administration from Harvard University and a Master of Business Administration from the University of St. Gallen where he was also a member of the organizing committee of the St. Gallen Symposium. He also studied at Tel Aviv University in Israel and at University Sains Malaysia, and participated in a one-year American Field Service student exchange at an American high school near Chicago as a teenager. He holds the rank of a first lieutenant in the Swiss military. Thomas enjoys traveling, skiing, and hiking
    .

    Being in the "committee on economics and taxation" doesn't put you in government. Bernard Jenkin is on the European Scrutiny Committee, but he's not in government

    I'll take your point that hs position as an EFTA/EU-delegation member makes him important but, again...that's not in government.

    We would have to check with Nick P but my understanding of Swiss government (which is incredibly confusing) is that there are only 7 actual positions on the Federal Council which is the equivalent of our Government. Everything else is done by those committees (at least at the Federal level).
    I'm not sure where that leaves us, but thank you for the information.
    I agree. I don't think it is possible in Switzerland's case to make any real comparisons with what we are used to as so much more power rests with the people via direct democracy.
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    OT Best 9 secs today

    This is too beautiful to exist https://t.co/p8VjFb1tnW
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    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820

    Ewww

    Horror as gangs of migrants 'assault female swimmers and masturbate in hot tub'

    Other migrants were caught "emptying their bowels" in the children's pool and masturbating in a hot tub, according to reports.

    They are thought to have been caught on CCTV before laughing at pool staff when challenged about their behaviour.

    Following the allegations, the historic Johannisbad baths in Zwickau, Saxony has banned migrants from the premises until further notice.
    http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/637276/Johannisbad-baths-Rainer-Kallweit-Zwickau-Saxony-Germany
    I find it almost unbelievable that there are individuals that would enjoy defecating in a child's pool, let alone enough of them that they can aggregate in a group. Thank God this is Germany's problem and not ours.

    Why were they released and not charged??

    I assume your question is rhetorical.
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    DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Scottish Labour have genuinely lost their sanity.

    With "attacks" like these, the SNP may as well let SLAB run their campaign for 2016. The comments make excellent reading. First one asks "is this an f****ng parody account".

    https://twitter.com/scottishlabour/status/690489138399739904
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    jayfdeejayfdee Posts: 618
    So no need for VI polls any more,just who would make the best leader. I suppose voting intention does not necessarily correlate with actually voting.
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    Dair said:

    Scottish Labour have genuinely lost their sanity.

    With "attacks" like these, the SNP may as well let SLAB run their campaign for 2016. The comments make excellent reading. First one asks "is this an f****ng parody account".

    https://twitter.com/scottishlabour/status/690489138399739904

    I think this stems from Dennis Robertson's rather ill considered claims that there was no crisis in the North Sea employment a couple of weeks ago. Having already lost 65,000 jobs by the close of last year it was rather a daft statement to make.
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Okayyyyy

    Crimes of Britain
    It was Elizabeth I who licensed thieves, kitting them out as pirates. British fortune spawned from a criminal enterprise.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @faisalislam: Port Of Calais closed after migrants stormed it and on to ship called "spirit of Britain" https://t.co/SxFCYrUpN0
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    Danny565 said:

    Sean_F said:

    FPT constituencies with big Muslim populations. Bear in mind these are mostly inner city seats filled with all sorts of groups that favour Labour - eg university workers, social housing tenants, public sector workers, people working in arts, design, media etc. The rise in the Labour vote won't just have come from Muslims.

    Public sector workers and social housing tenants certainly but there weren't any real 'trendy lefty' constituencies in that list. None of those constituencies would have voted YEStoAV for example.

    The list was only to show that the claim that there had been a big fall in ethnic minority support for Labour in 2015 was rubbish.

    If anyone has a list of the top 10 Afro-Caribbean and top 10 Hindu/Sikh constituencies it would be interesting to see the electoral change in those in 2015.

    A quick look shows that heavily Hindu constituencies - Brent N, Harrow E, Harrow W - had little change between 2010 and 2015.

    Whereas those which had the highest Sikh populations - Feltham, Hayes and especially Ealing Southall - had strong swings to Labour.

    The constituencies with the highest Afro-Caribbean voters also had significant increases in the Labour vote, although lower than in the highest Muslim constituencies. However these high Afro-Caribbean constituencies also tend to the ones most associated with 'trendy lefties' so what the breakdown of that Labour vote increase was is unsure.

    I think you're right. The IPSOS MORI polls for ethnic minority votes look much more plausible:

    Labour: 65% (+5 from 2010)
    Conservatives: 23% (+7)
    Lib Dems: 4% (-16)
    Greens: 3%
    UKIP: 2%
    It would be interesting to know the voting patterns of ethnic minorities split between how large the minority vote in their constituency was.

    I suspect that the lower the ethnic minority proportion in a constituency is the closer the ethnic minority vote to the local average is but as the proportion grows the more pro Labour it becomes.

  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,574
    edited January 2016

    Okayyyyy

    Crimes of Britain
    It was Elizabeth I who licensed thieves, kitting them out as pirates. British fortune spawned from a criminal enterprise.

    In which case it was a crime of England, not Britain. There was no 'Britain' until she died and James called his personal union of the crowns Britain - and of course it was not formalised until 1707.
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    I keep reading it as knitting. :smiley:
    ydoethur said:

    Okayyyyy

    Crimes of Britain
    It was Elizabeth I who licensed thieves, kitting them out as pirates. British fortune spawned from a criminal enterprise.

    In which case it was a crime of England, not Britain. There was no 'Britain' until she died and James called his personal union of the crowns Britain - and of course it was not formalised until 1707.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,029
    ydoethur said:

    Okayyyyy

    Crimes of Britain
    It was Elizabeth I who licensed thieves, kitting them out as pirates. British fortune spawned from a criminal enterprise.

    In which case it was a crime of England, not Britain. There was no 'Britain' until she died and James called his personal union of the crowns Britain - and of course it was not formalised until 1707.
    Unless they are referring to the islands ;)
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    DairDair Posts: 6,108
    edited January 2016
    ydoethur said:

    Okayyyyy

    Crimes of Britain
    It was Elizabeth I who licensed thieves, kitting them out as pirates. British fortune spawned from a criminal enterprise.

    In which case it was a crime of England, not Britain. There was no 'Britain' until she died and James called his personal union of the crowns Britain - and of course it was not formalised until 1707.
    Or "England and Wales" for those believers in the "Wales is really a country, no honestly IT IS, IT IS" myth.

    Incidentally there is an interesting twitter trend #DespiteBeingTaughtInWelsh developing at the moment. The BBC have wisely edited their initial story, it seems.
  • Options

    Okayyyyy

    Crimes of Britain
    It was Elizabeth I who licensed thieves, kitting them out as pirates. British fortune spawned from a criminal enterprise.

    That is pretty much true.

    Although the Spanish they were attacking had themselves stolen the gold from various South Americans.

    And the biggest pirate states of that time would have been the Barbary Corsairs of North Africa.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barbary_pirates
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,029
    Dair said:

    ydoethur said:

    Okayyyyy

    Crimes of Britain
    It was Elizabeth I who licensed thieves, kitting them out as pirates. British fortune spawned from a criminal enterprise.

    In which case it was a crime of England, not Britain. There was no 'Britain' until she died and James called his personal union of the crowns Britain - and of course it was not formalised until 1707.
    Or "England and Wales" for those believers in the "Wales is really a country, no honestly IT IS, IT IS" myth.

    Incidentally there is an interesting twitter trend #DespiteBeingTaughtInWelsh developing at the moment. The BBC have wisely edited their initial story, it seems.
    How's the Church of England and Wales doing these days? ;)
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,574
    Dair said:

    ydoethur said:

    Okayyyyy

    Crimes of Britain
    It was Elizabeth I who licensed thieves, kitting them out as pirates. British fortune spawned from a criminal enterprise.

    In which case it was a crime of England, not Britain. There was no 'Britain' until she died and James called his personal union of the crowns Britain - and of course it was not formalised until 1707.
    Or "England and Wales" for those believers in the "Wales is really a country, no honestly IT IS, IT IS" myth.

    Incidentally there is an interesting twitter trend #DespiteBeingTaughtInWelsh developing at the moment. The BBC have wisely edited their initial story, it seems.
    Wales was annexed by England in 1536 and 1543 - before Elizabeth came to the throne. It had ceased to exist- as Britannica Used to say, 'For Wales, see England'. Scotland staggered on for a bit longer.

    Of course, you could quibble about the extent to which Scotland was a 'nation' in the modern sense either, given its vast regional differences, multiple languages and weak central government. But TBH the further back you go the less meaningful such labels become anyway.
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    DairDair Posts: 6,108
    edited January 2016
    ydoethur said:

    Dair said:

    ydoethur said:

    Okayyyyy

    Crimes of Britain
    It was Elizabeth I who licensed thieves, kitting them out as pirates. British fortune spawned from a criminal enterprise.

    In which case it was a crime of England, not Britain. There was no 'Britain' until she died and James called his personal union of the crowns Britain - and of course it was not formalised until 1707.
    Or "England and Wales" for those believers in the "Wales is really a country, no honestly IT IS, IT IS" myth.

    Incidentally there is an interesting twitter trend #DespiteBeingTaughtInWelsh developing at the moment. The BBC have wisely edited their initial story, it seems.
    Wales was annexed by England in 1536 and 1543 - before Elizabeth came to the throne. It had ceased to exist- as Britannica Used to say, 'For Wales, see England'. Scotland staggered on for a bit longer.

    Of course, you could quibble about the extent to which Scotland was a 'nation' in the modern sense either, given its vast regional differences, multiple languages and weak central government. But TBH the further back you go the less meaningful such labels become anyway.
    I thought the annexation and extinguishing of Wales was in 1284?

    The wiki article on the C16th stuff seems to indicate that all that happened then was to give those in the Wales region the same rights as other Englishmen.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laws_in_Wales_Acts_1535_and_1542
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,574
    edited January 2016
    Dair said:


    I thought the annexation and extinguishing of Wales was in 1284?

    The wiki article on the C16th stuff seems to indicate that all that happened then was to give those in the Wales region the same rights as other Englishmen.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laws_in_Wales_Acts_1535_and_1542

    That was the conquest of Gwynedd. Wales was however administered separately from England from 1284 to 1536, under a palatinate arrangement. Essentially the King replaced the native princes in the Principalities of West Wales (Carmarthen) and North Wales (Caernarfon) while the Marcher Lords (which included the native Welsh princes of Powys Wenwynwyn) continued much as they always had. The whole mess was administered by a Council of Wales based in Ludlow.

    In 1536 Cromwell and Henry swept that away and brought the administration of Wales under the direct control of England, although there remained a subordinate court system based on Ludlow until 1837. So it was really at that point the idea of Wales as a separate country came to an end, rather than in 1284.
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    pbr2013pbr2013 Posts: 649

    pbr2013 said:

    viewcode said:

    RobD said:

    Britain invited to rejoin the European Free Trade Association (EFTA): http://t.co/RTFtnqKJVQ #efta #brexit http://t.co/kbKs0TYb3D

    That is hugely useful for Leave. One of the points being made by Europhiles has been whether or not EFTA would want us back. This seems a very clear signal about that.
    A bit misleading, we were invited to join, but not by EFTA themselves. It's basically just a third party saying "hey, why don't you join EFTA".
    Er no. It is two of the four members of EFTA inviting us. They are not a third party.
    If the people in question were in two of the governments of EFTA then your statement "It is two of the four members of EFTA inviting us" would be accurate.

    If I understand correctly, they are not.
    Is there a requirement to be in EFTA to also be part of the EEA?
    No.
    So this EFTA business is a dead issue then
    No. There is a requirement to be in EFTA to be in the EEA. However not all members of EFTA have to be in the EEA.
    My question was 'Is there a requirement to be in EFTA to also be part of the EEA?' The answer came back 'No'
    So that answer is wrong?

    (I don't want this little thread to turn into an Abbot and Costello sketch BTW !)
    Ah. Read it wrong way round. What Richard said.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,336
    edited January 2016
    Corbyn and McMao have to be a sleeper agent for the Tories. Nobody is that stupid are they....
  • Options
    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Variety
    Donald Trump: I Could ‘Shoot Somebody and I Wouldn’t Lose Voters’ https://t.co/iJ8XEO1Q0S https://t.co/vwKZkKoJVO
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited January 2016
    http://www.politico.com/story/2016/01/ted-cruz-teen-world-domination-218148#ixzz3y6abvsOV

    "A new video of a teenaged Ted Cruz, posted Saturday on YouTube, shows a lankier and younger version of the future Republican presidential candidate sarcastically talking about his life’s goals —and they’re far more ambitious than the mere presidency. "Take over the world, world domination, you know, rule everything. Rich, powerful, that sort of stuff,” Cruz says "

    It's good to be ambitious.
    Pinky and Brain style ambitious.

    I'm off.

  • Options
    On topic Keiran's done a piece for Progress that mentions this aspect

    http://www.progressonline.org.uk/2016/01/23/polling-inquiry-there-may-be-trouble-ahead/
  • Options
    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    Variety
    Donald Trump: I Could ‘Shoot Somebody and I Wouldn’t Lose Voters’ https://t.co/iJ8XEO1Q0S https://t.co/vwKZkKoJVO

    If it was Justin Bieber it could be worth 10 points to him.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,748
    edited January 2016
    MP_SE said:

    kle4 said:

    Just received a 4 page newspaper size 'Europe and You' sheet from Britain Stronger in Europe.

    Most interestingly from my perspective is the back page has a whole list of UKIP Myths' and 'UKIP Propaganda' (though smaller print says 'UKIP and others' spreading myths. I'm curious why the association of the 'myths' purely with UKIP. It claims to be SW focused (sections on 'Business in the SW', so maybe they didn't want to trash it as Tory eurosceptic myths as well to not upset partisans. Additionally, it counters each 'myth' statement with the 'truth' and for some reason includes a source for the claims on some, but not all of them for some reason.

    Also, it is listed as for January/February 2016, which makes me worried I'll get 6 of these a year.

    That would be a spend of approximately £9million. They don't have the manpower to deliver them by hand and have to rely on posting them. This is where the Eurofanatics will come unstuck. I doubt they have sufficient activists to spread their message in the way that Eurosceptics do. My constituncy has had 10s of thousands of leaflets delivered, street stalls, etc.
    You sound like a Labour activist just before the election, hyping up their awesome ground game with their many thousands of activists.

    Remain have Stephen Gilbert working for them, he worked for CCHQ at the election, and was one of the architects of the Tory customised targeting strategy that worked wonders in appealing to the voters that matter.
  • Options
    Tim_B said:

    Variety
    Donald Trump: I Could ‘Shoot Somebody and I Wouldn’t Lose Voters’ https://t.co/iJ8XEO1Q0S https://t.co/vwKZkKoJVO

    If it was Justin Bieber it could be worth 10 points to him.
    Just the 10 ?
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @johndavidblake: England has one major political party and one major political punchline. Still, at least the gags are funny: https://t.co/KZb52K8B9I
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,872

    Ewww

    Horror as gangs of migrants 'assault female swimmers and masturbate in hot tub'

    Other migrants were caught "emptying their bowels" in the children's pool and masturbating in a hot tub, according to reports.

    They are thought to have been caught on CCTV before laughing at pool staff when challenged about their behaviour.

    Following the allegations, the historic Johannisbad baths in Zwickau, Saxony has banned migrants from the premises until further notice.
    http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/637276/Johannisbad-baths-Rainer-Kallweit-Zwickau-Saxony-Germany
    I find it almost unbelievable that there are individuals that would enjoy defecating in a child's pool, let alone enough of them that they can aggregate in a group. Thank God this is Germany's problem and not ours.

    Why were they released and not charged??

    Where to begin... Okay....

    Having worked for an oil company I got to meet quite a bit of the world that isn't westernised. At all. Even in the most anti-western countries, the effect of TV etc has had a marked effect. The original, genuine product from the back hills is still in the original state, however.

    In many such societies, the limits of behaviour are enforced with a savagery that you... would actually believe. Believe, but probably not "believe" in the sense of feeling it in your soul - it is something that happens a long way away.

    In addition, there is a self belief in religion, family, clan etc that most modern "civilised" people don't really understand. On a scale of 1 - 10, say... Dair of this parish believes in Scotland to say 3. Whereas the product of the environments I am talking about (the countryside of the third world) *professes* a belief in the 8-10 range.

    The result when such people encounter western city life is a strange combination of total superiority, total inferiority, total anger and total hedonistic self destruction. All at once.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,336
    edited January 2016
    When I saw the pictures of JJ today in France, it made me think of Comical Ali for some reason.
  • Options
    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    Tim_B said:

    Variety
    Donald Trump: I Could ‘Shoot Somebody and I Wouldn’t Lose Voters’ https://t.co/iJ8XEO1Q0S https://t.co/vwKZkKoJVO

    If it was Justin Bieber it could be worth 10 points to him.
    Just the 10 ?
    How much can a total dickhead be worth?
  • Options
    JJ wants a power sharing deal with the Argies over the Falklands...

    https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/691014151150407680
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    notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    Sean_F said:

    Ewww

    Horror as gangs of migrants 'assault female swimmers and masturbate in hot tub'

    Other migrants were caught "emptying their bowels" in the children's pool and masturbating in a hot tub, according to reports.

    They are thought to have been caught on CCTV before laughing at pool staff when challenged about their behaviour.

    Following the allegations, the historic Johannisbad baths in Zwickau, Saxony has banned migrants from the premises until further notice.
    http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/637276/Johannisbad-baths-Rainer-Kallweit-Zwickau-Saxony-Germany
    I find it almost unbelievable that there are individuals that would enjoy defecating in a child's pool, let alone enough of them that they can aggregate in a group. Thank God this is Germany's problem and not ours.

    Why were they released and not charged??
    A surprisingly large number of people lack toilet training.

    Do they? I dont think ive ever met an adult, who with the exception of someone with a medical condition, who cannot control themselves. Is there a culture out there that has not managed to develop this?
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Speedy said:

    http://www.politico.com/story/2016/01/ted-cruz-teen-world-domination-218148#ixzz3y6abvsOV

    "A new video of a teenaged Ted Cruz, posted Saturday on YouTube, shows a lankier and younger version of the future Republican presidential candidate sarcastically talking about his life’s goals —and they’re far more ambitious than the mere presidency. "Take over the world, world domination, you know, rule everything. Rich, powerful, that sort of stuff,” Cruz says "

    It's good to be ambitious.
    Pinky and Brain style ambitious.

    I'm off.

    Pretending to be natural born citizen must come easy to him...
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,130

    JJ wants a power sharing deal with the Argies over the Falklands...

    ttps://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/691014151150407680

    The gloves aren't properly off until a Cabinet minister takes the fight to Cameron. Fox is not that shocking, and there are 10 backbenchers I would guess who would always be willing to do so (due to eurosceptic fervour and or hatred of Cameron). Probably the same ones lined up to trash him on GE night.
  • Options

    JJ wants a power sharing deal with the Argies over the Falklands...

    https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/691014151150407680

    For all that I am hopeful that many Tory MPs will campaign for Leave, describing 40 Backbenchers as a rift seems a little OTT to me.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    The betting markets reacted to the Bloomberg news with commendable slowness. I was able to back at 90 and lay at 46 today.

    Bizarre.
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    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865

    JJ wants a power sharing deal with the Argies over the Falklands...

    https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/691014151150407680

    Ms Castro says "attitudes are beginning to change " ....."his decisive leadership can guide the British people" ....he is one of ours"

    ....Sums it up really. This man is dangerous.

    Anyone who also considers there is no connection between the invasion at Calais tonight and Corbyns visit to Calais today is quite simply deluded.
  • Options
    flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903

    JJ wants a power sharing deal with the Argies over the Falklands...

    https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/691014151150407680

    For all that I am hopeful that many Tory MPs will campaign for Leave, describing 40 Backbenchers as a rift seems a little OTT to me.
    OTT = On Target for Telegraph

  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    MP_SE said:

    kle4 said:

    Just received a 4 page newspaper size 'Europe and You' sheet from Britain Stronger in Europe.

    Most interestingly from my perspective is the back page has a whole list of UKIP Myths' and 'UKIP Propaganda' (though smaller print says 'UKIP and others' spreading myths. I'm curious why the association of the 'myths' purely with UKIP. It claims to be SW focused (sections on 'Business in the SW', so maybe they didn't want to trash it as Tory eurosceptic myths as well to not upset partisans. Additionally, it counters each 'myth' statement with the 'truth' and for some reason includes a source for the claims on some, but not all of them for some reason.

    Also, it is listed as for January/February 2016, which makes me worried I'll get 6 of these a year.

    That would be a spend of approximately £9million. They don't have the manpower to deliver them by hand and have to rely on posting them. This is where the Eurofanatics will come unstuck. I doubt they have sufficient activists to spread their message in the way that Eurosceptics do. My constituncy has had 10s of thousands of leaflets delivered, street stalls, etc.
    Strange how any criticism of the Remain campaign is a dog whistle for "les indecideds"
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @BBCMarkEaston: Big story breaking on @BBCNews very shortly about police and the CPS. Do watch.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,748
    edited January 2016
    The Tory truce over Europe began to crumble on Saturday as David Cameron faced an angry backlash from MPs over his attitude to his party in the referendum campaign.

    An alliance of 40 Conservatives wrote to the Prime Minister requesting a meeting to discuss concerns that he will fail to restore Britain’s “sovereignty” over setting tax rates and laws.

    They fear he is not asking for sufficiently radical changes to EU membership and want him to be more ambitious in his negotiations to wrest back powers. Mr Cameron rejected the request to meet his MPs, who were said to be backed by 10 Government ministers and aides, sparking a furious response on Saturday night.

    Senior Tories accused him of reviving his arrogant “Flashman” persona and “ignoring” the concerns of Eurosceptics who believe he is using the Government’s resources against them.

    One senior MP said that Mr Cameron was doing “significant harm” to his party’s chances of reuniting after the referendum.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12117890/Europe-the-gloves-are-off-as-Tory-rift-widens.html
  • Options
    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642

    MP_SE said:

    kle4 said:

    Just received a 4 page newspaper size 'Europe and You' sheet from Britain Stronger in Europe.

    Most interestingly from my perspective is the back page has a whole list of UKIP Myths' and 'UKIP Propaganda' (though smaller print says 'UKIP and others' spreading myths. I'm curious why the association of the 'myths' purely with UKIP. It claims to be SW focused (sections on 'Business in the SW', so maybe they didn't want to trash it as Tory eurosceptic myths as well to not upset partisans. Additionally, it counters each 'myth' statement with the 'truth' and for some reason includes a source for the claims on some, but not all of them for some reason.

    Also, it is listed as for January/February 2016, which makes me worried I'll get 6 of these a year.

    That would be a spend of approximately £9million. They don't have the manpower to deliver them by hand and have to rely on posting them. This is where the Eurofanatics will come unstuck. I doubt they have sufficient activists to spread their message in the way that Eurosceptics do. My constituncy has had 10s of thousands of leaflets delivered, street stalls, etc.
    You sound like a Labour activist just before the election, hyping up their awesome ground game with their many thousands of activists.

    Remain have Stephen Gilbert working for them, he worked for CCHQ at the election, and was one of the architects of the Tory customised targeting strategy that worked wonders in appealing to the voters that matter.
    If microtargetting voters is all that is required to win elections all the grassroot swivel-eyed loons which make up the local associations can be jettisoned in favour of Stephen Gilbert. That is assuming he is the only person in the world capable of microtargetting voters...
  • Options
    flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903
    Tim_B said:

    Variety
    Donald Trump: I Could ‘Shoot Somebody and I Wouldn’t Lose Voters’ https://t.co/iJ8XEO1Q0S https://t.co/vwKZkKoJVO

    If it was Justin Bieber it could be worth 10 points to him.
    I have a chill that its Trump who is talking himself into getting shot. He should not talk like that.
  • Options
    MP_SE said:

    MP_SE said:

    kle4 said:

    Just received a 4 page newspaper size 'Europe and You' sheet from Britain Stronger in Europe.

    Most interestingly from my perspective is the back page has a whole list of UKIP Myths' and 'UKIP Propaganda' (though smaller print says 'UKIP and others' spreading myths. I'm curious why the association of the 'myths' purely with UKIP. It claims to be SW focused (sections on 'Business in the SW', so maybe they didn't want to trash it as Tory eurosceptic myths as well to not upset partisans. Additionally, it counters each 'myth' statement with the 'truth' and for some reason includes a source for the claims on some, but not all of them for some reason.

    Also, it is listed as for January/February 2016, which makes me worried I'll get 6 of these a year.

    That would be a spend of approximately £9million. They don't have the manpower to deliver them by hand and have to rely on posting them. This is where the Eurofanatics will come unstuck. I doubt they have sufficient activists to spread their message in the way that Eurosceptics do. My constituncy has had 10s of thousands of leaflets delivered, street stalls, etc.
    You sound like a Labour activist just before the election, hyping up their awesome ground game with their many thousands of activists.

    Remain have Stephen Gilbert working for them, he worked for CCHQ at the election, and was one of the architects of the Tory customised targeting strategy that worked wonders in appealing to the voters that matter.
    If microtargetting voters is all that is required to win elections all the grassroot swivel-eyed loons which make up the local associations can be jettisoned in favour of Stephen Gilbert. That is assuming he is the only person in the world capable of microtargetting voters...
    It isn't and he isn't.

    I'm just saying your comments reminded me of some Labour activists prior to the election.
  • Options
    flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903
    pbr2013 said:

    pbr2013 said:

    viewcode said:

    RobD said:

    Britain invited to rejoin the European Free Trade Association (EFTA): http://t.co/RTFtnqKJVQ #efta #brexit http://t.co/kbKs0TYb3D

    That is hugely useful for Leave. One of the points being made by Europhiles has been whether or not EFTA would want us back. This seems a very clear signal about that.
    A bit misleading, we were invited to join, but not by EFTA themselves. It's basically just a third party saying "hey, why don't you join EFTA".
    Er no. It is two of the four members of EFTA inviting us. They are not a third party.
    If the people in question were in two of the governments of EFTA then your statement "It is two of the four members of EFTA inviting us" would be accurate.

    If I understand correctly, they are not.
    Is there a requirement to be in EFTA to also be part of the EEA?
    No.
    So this EFTA business is a dead issue then
    No. There is a requirement to be in EFTA to be in the EEA. However not all members of EFTA have to be in the EEA.
    My question was 'Is there a requirement to be in EFTA to also be part of the EEA?' The answer came back 'No'
    So that answer is wrong?

    (I don't want this little thread to turn into an Abbot and Costello sketch BTW !)
    Ah. Read it wrong way round. What Richard said.
    'So who is on first base.'
    'Thats what I said'
    'No he is playing longstop'
  • Options
    Tim Farron, the Liberal Democrat leader, is in secret talks with Jeremy Corbyn about voting reform in a bid to form a progressive electoral alliance against the Conservatives.

    Mr Farron’s aides are talking to a Labour MP – a close ally of Mr Corbyn – who is acting as a conduit between the two leaders, The Independent on Sunday can reveal.

    http://goo.gl/Gllf00
  • Options
    flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903
    Dair said:

    ydoethur said:

    Dair said:

    ydoethur said:

    Okayyyyy

    Crimes of Britain
    It was Elizabeth I who licensed thieves, kitting them out as pirates. British fortune spawned from a criminal enterprise.

    In which case it was a crime of England, not Britain. There was no 'Britain' until she died and James called his personal union of the crowns Britain - and of course it was not formalised until 1707.
    Or "England and Wales" for those believers in the "Wales is really a country, no honestly IT IS, IT IS" myth.

    Incidentally there is an interesting twitter trend #DespiteBeingTaughtInWelsh developing at the moment. The BBC have wisely edited their initial story, it seems.
    Wales was annexed by England in 1536 and 1543 - before Elizabeth came to the throne. It had ceased to exist- as Britannica Used to say, 'For Wales, see England'. Scotland staggered on for a bit longer.

    Of course, you could quibble about the extent to which Scotland was a 'nation' in the modern sense either, given its vast regional differences, multiple languages and weak central government. But TBH the further back you go the less meaningful such labels become anyway.
    I thought the annexation and extinguishing of Wales was in 1284?

    The wiki article on the C16th stuff seems to indicate that all that happened then was to give those in the Wales region the same rights as other Englishmen.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laws_in_Wales_Acts_1535_and_1542
    England with the help of a few Welsh archers used to own half of France. Shall we have it back? I guess we would leave Calais out of this.
  • Options
    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034

    Dair said:

    ydoethur said:

    Dair said:

    ydoethur said:

    Okayyyyy

    Crimes of Britain
    It was Elizabeth I who licensed thieves, kitting them out as pirates. British fortune spawned from a criminal enterprise.

    In which case it was a crime of England, not Britain. There was no 'Britain' until she died and James called his personal union of the crowns Britain - and of course it was not formalised until 1707.
    Or "England and Wales" for those believers in the "Wales is really a country, no honestly IT IS, IT IS" myth.

    Incidentally there is an interesting twitter trend #DespiteBeingTaughtInWelsh developing at the moment. The BBC have wisely edited their initial story, it seems.
    Wales was annexed by England in 1536 and 1543 - before Elizabeth came to the throne. It had ceased to exist- as Britannica Used to say, 'For Wales, see England'. Scotland staggered on for a bit longer.

    Of course, you could quibble about the extent to which Scotland was a 'nation' in the modern sense either, given its vast regional differences, multiple languages and weak central government. But TBH the further back you go the less meaningful such labels become anyway.
    I thought the annexation and extinguishing of Wales was in 1284?

    The wiki article on the C16th stuff seems to indicate that all that happened then was to give those in the Wales region the same rights as other Englishmen.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laws_in_Wales_Acts_1535_and_1542
    England with the help of a few Welsh archers used to own half of France. Shall we have it back? I guess we would leave Calais out of this.
    If we go by a LOFI approach (Last out, First in), Calais should be the first part of France to rejoin the UK.
  • Options

    Tim Farron, the Liberal Democrat leader, is in secret talks with Jeremy Corbyn about voting reform in a bid to form a progressive electoral alliance against the Conservatives.

    Mr Farron’s aides are talking to a Labour MP – a close ally of Mr Corbyn – who is acting as a conduit between the two leaders, The Independent on Sunday can reveal.

    http://goo.gl/Gllf00

    These people really are thick. I will laugh when their "reforms" result in a perpetual right of centre government in the UK.
  • Options
    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    Tim Farron, the Liberal Democrat leader, is in secret talks with Jeremy Corbyn about voting reform in a bid to form a progressive electoral alliance against the Conservatives.

    Mr Farron’s aides are talking to a Labour MP – a close ally of Mr Corbyn – who is acting as a conduit between the two leaders, The Independent on Sunday can reveal.

    http://goo.gl/Gllf00

    These people really are thick. I will laugh when their "reforms" result in a perpetual right of centre government in the UK.
    Do you think the typical UKIP voter in the North of England is "right of centre"?
  • Options
    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Incidentally, that story sounds like nonsense being pushed by LibDems trying to make themselves relevant.
  • Options
    Danny565 said:

    Tim Farron, the Liberal Democrat leader, is in secret talks with Jeremy Corbyn about voting reform in a bid to form a progressive electoral alliance against the Conservatives.

    Mr Farron’s aides are talking to a Labour MP – a close ally of Mr Corbyn – who is acting as a conduit between the two leaders, The Independent on Sunday can reveal.

    http://goo.gl/Gllf00

    These people really are thick. I will laugh when their "reforms" result in a perpetual right of centre government in the UK.
    Do you think the typical UKIP voter in the North of England is "right of centre"?
    I think the only time Labour has come close to the levers of power in the past 4 decades is when they adopted right of centre policies.

    I am not talking about what individual parties might gain. I am talking about what wins British general elections. It isn't the sort of policies being espoused by Labour or the Lib Dems currently.
  • Options
    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    For those of you unfamiliar with the peculiar art form that is US local TV news, DirecTV - my satellite TV provider - put up 2 new channels overnight: the severe weather mix, showing up to 8 channels, and severe weather channel.

    Local TV news has several phrases to describe it, notably "If it bleeds, it leads". It's mainly crime, car crashes, and fires. The presenters and correspondents believe fervently that news exists to bring you them.

    The severe weather channel today features local news channels from the DC area. As soon as one station goes to a commercial break, there's a press conference, or another station has updated doppler radar etc, they switch channels. Today it's mainly featuring WJLA and WUSA in DC and WBAL from Baltimore.

    It's compulsive viewing, but somewhat disconcerting with the constant channel switching.
  • Options

    Tim Farron, the Liberal Democrat leader, is in secret talks with Jeremy Corbyn about voting reform in a bid to form a progressive electoral alliance against the Conservatives.

    Mr Farron’s aides are talking to a Labour MP – a close ally of Mr Corbyn – who is acting as a conduit between the two leaders, The Independent on Sunday can reveal.

    http://goo.gl/Gllf00

    These people really are thick. I will laugh when their "reforms" result in a perpetual right of centre government in the UK.
    I thought Tim Farron was astute, but why on earth would you want to associate yourself with Jeremy Corbyn?
  • Options
    Whats this CPS / Plod story BBC chief stats spinner has been tweeting about?
  • Options
    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Apparently it's all our fault??

    " "It's muddy, it's winter. Would you take your family camping right now, even for one night? The refugees are living there."

    No I wouldn't,. I would claim asylum in the first country... At very least now claim in France and get treated by the French. Do it , claim why don't they? unless of course they are illegal in which case Of course they couldn't.

    Refugees? Interesting term to use given this is Northern France and not a war zone and they are in a country according to some on here with a larger GDP than us and in a few months about to become a huge holiday destination.

    It's still our fault though.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-35387422
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    glwglw Posts: 9,556

    Danny565 said:

    Tim Farron, the Liberal Democrat leader, is in secret talks with Jeremy Corbyn about voting reform in a bid to form a progressive electoral alliance against the Conservatives.

    Mr Farron’s aides are talking to a Labour MP – a close ally of Mr Corbyn – who is acting as a conduit between the two leaders, The Independent on Sunday can reveal.

    http://goo.gl/Gllf00

    These people really are thick. I will laugh when their "reforms" result in a perpetual right of centre government in the UK.
    Do you think the typical UKIP voter in the North of England is "right of centre"?
    I think the only time Labour has come close to the levers of power in the past 4 decades is when they adopted right of centre policies.

    I am not talking about what individual parties might gain. I am talking about what wins British general elections. It isn't the sort of policies being espoused by Labour or the Lib Dems currently.
    Conservatives, most UKIP supports, some Red Labour, the Unionist parties, that probably does constitute a right majority. Besides which there would likely be a realignment of political parties anyway after a change to the electoral system.
  • Options
    glwglw Posts: 9,556

    I thought Tim Farron was astute, but why on earth would you want to associate yourself with Jeremy Corbyn?

    Tim Farron's not very good at politics.
  • Options
    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    Danny565 said:

    Tim Farron, the Liberal Democrat leader, is in secret talks with Jeremy Corbyn about voting reform in a bid to form a progressive electoral alliance against the Conservatives.

    Mr Farron’s aides are talking to a Labour MP – a close ally of Mr Corbyn – who is acting as a conduit between the two leaders, The Independent on Sunday can reveal.

    http://goo.gl/Gllf00

    These people really are thick. I will laugh when their "reforms" result in a perpetual right of centre government in the UK.
    Do you think the typical UKIP voter in the North of England is "right of centre"?
    I think the only time Labour has come close to the levers of power in the past 4 decades is when they adopted right of centre policies.

    I am not talking about what individual parties might gain. I am talking about what wins British general elections. It isn't the sort of policies being espoused by Labour or the Lib Dems currently.
    Are the Lib Dems espousing any policies currently?

    Anywho, you may be right that the public will only vote for "right of centre" governments (though I personally disagree that the Blair/Brown governments were "right of centre"), but what I didn't understand was your inference that PR would make right-of-centre governments more likely. Northern Kippers, in my experience, are very far away from Douglas Carswell-esque libertarian "small state" policies.
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,465

    Tim Farron, the Liberal Democrat leader, is in secret talks with Jeremy Corbyn about voting reform in a bid to form a progressive electoral alliance against the Conservatives.

    Mr Farron’s aides are talking to a Labour MP – a close ally of Mr Corbyn – who is acting as a conduit between the two leaders, The Independent on Sunday can reveal.

    http://goo.gl/Gllf00

    These people really are thick. I will laugh when their "reforms" result in a perpetual right of centre government in the UK.
    Perpetual? No. There are too many checks, balances and natural electoral cycles for that. But at the moment it'd be difficult to see anything other than a Con-UKIP coalition resulting from a PR election.

    It'd also make it a damn sight easier for Sensible Labour to break away without great cost from Corbyn.
  • Options
    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    MTimT said:

    Dair said:

    ydoethur said:

    Dair said:

    ydoethur said:

    Okayyyyy

    Crimes of Britain
    It was Elizabeth I who licensed thieves, kitting them out as pirates. British fortune spawned from a criminal enterprise.

    In which case it was a crime of England, not Britain. There was no 'Britain' until she died and James called his personal union of the crowns Britain - and of course it was not formalised until 1707.
    Or "England and Wales" for those believers in the "Wales is really a country, no honestly IT IS, IT IS" myth.

    Incidentally there is an interesting twitter trend #DespiteBeingTaughtInWelsh developing at the moment. The BBC have wisely edited their initial story, it seems.
    Wales was annexed by England in 1536 and 1543 - before Elizabeth came to the throne. It had ceased to exist- as Britannica Used to say, 'For Wales, see England'. Scotland staggered on for a bit longer.

    Of course, you could quibble about the extent to which Scotland was a 'nation' in the modern sense either, given its vast regional differences, multiple languages and weak central government. But TBH the further back you go the less meaningful such labels become anyway.
    I thought the annexation and extinguishing of Wales was in 1284?

    The wiki article on the C16th stuff seems to indicate that all that happened then was to give those in the Wales region the same rights as other Englishmen.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laws_in_Wales_Acts_1535_and_1542
    England with the help of a few Welsh archers used to own half of France. Shall we have it back? I guess we would leave Calais out of this.
    If we go by a LOFI approach (Last out, First in), Calais should be the first part of France to rejoin the UK.
    Didn't Elizabeth ! say that Calais was engraved on her heart?

    How are your horses etc doing?
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,465

    Danny565 said:

    Tim Farron, the Liberal Democrat leader, is in secret talks with Jeremy Corbyn about voting reform in a bid to form a progressive electoral alliance against the Conservatives.

    Mr Farron’s aides are talking to a Labour MP – a close ally of Mr Corbyn – who is acting as a conduit between the two leaders, The Independent on Sunday can reveal.

    http://goo.gl/Gllf00

    These people really are thick. I will laugh when their "reforms" result in a perpetual right of centre government in the UK.
    Do you think the typical UKIP voter in the North of England is "right of centre"?
    I think the only time Labour has come close to the levers of power in the past 4 decades is when they adopted right of centre policies.

    I am not talking about what individual parties might gain. I am talking about what wins British general elections. It isn't the sort of policies being espoused by Labour or the Lib Dems currently.
    John Smith wasn't right-of-centre and had he lived, he'd have almost certainly won in 1997 as well. Not by as much as Blair did but enough to form a government and very probably a comfortable majority.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,913

    Tim Farron, the Liberal Democrat leader, is in secret talks with Jeremy Corbyn about voting reform in a bid to form a progressive electoral alliance against the Conservatives.

    Mr Farron’s aides are talking to a Labour MP – a close ally of Mr Corbyn – who is acting as a conduit between the two leaders, The Independent on Sunday can reveal.

    http://goo.gl/Gllf00

    These people really are thick. I will laugh when their "reforms" result in a perpetual right of centre government in the UK.
    I thought Tim Farron was astute, but why on earth would you want to associate yourself with Jeremy Corbyn?
    Can't be worse than the near death experience of getting close to the Conservatives.
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    glwglw Posts: 9,556

    JJ wants a power sharing deal with the Argies over the Falklands...

    Honestly if you had told me a year ago that in 2016 the Labour leader would be espousing such ideas I would have laughed at the absurd suggestion.

    There's a bit of me that thinks Corbyn is deliberately coming out with some of this barmy stuff to force the moderates to push off.
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    glwglw Posts: 9,556
    Jonathan said:

    Can't be worse than the near death experience of getting close to the Conservatives.

    Given some of Corbyn's views I wouldn't be so certain of that.
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    flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903



    This is one reason why I am dubious about a straight jumping of ship from the EU into nowhere.
    Of course if it can be said that we are currently in the EEA and leaving the EU means we stay in the EEA then that might finesse it.
    However I believe that both sides of the argument do not want to discuss the EEA and EFTA.

    This was a question that Richard North was going to raise with the General Secretary of EFTA who he has had some dealings with in the past. There is a school of thought which I used to belong to but am not so sure about now, that since we are independent signatories of the EEA (as all countries are, independent of the separate signing by the EU) then we would not actually lose our membership and would just rejoin EFTA.

    It is one of those quirks of treaty membership whereby practically we would be leaving the EEA and would have to rejoin via EFTA but legally under treaty law we would still be a member of the EEA as we signed it on our own behalf.

    I want to discuss EFTA and the EEA a lot, as do some of the groups and individuals making up Vote Leave. It is the UKIP tendency who don't want to as they have built their arguments on the shifting sands of immigration.
    And that is certainly one reason I am not likely to vote Leave.
    The motives have become twisted and would leave (no pun) the country in a bad place.
    But leaving to stay in EFTA/EEA is very little real difference to any sane arguments about the EU. Kippers and others of their new found friends have moved beyond the EU to conflate it onto race and anti islam.
    So my mood is to stay if the the negotiations produce something realistic and viable. Its late and I ave no intention of delving into this last any further. Its going to crop up again.

    What I will say - watching Spurs and CP - football goals should be 3 inches wider and taller
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,336
    edited January 2016
    glw said:

    JJ wants a power sharing deal with the Argies over the Falklands...

    Honestly if you had told me a year ago that in 2016 the Labour leader would be espousing such ideas I would have laughed at the absurd suggestion.

    There's a bit of me that thinks Corbyn is deliberately coming out with some of this barmy stuff to force the moderates to push off.
    As I say it is Comical Ali stuff...
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    MP_SE said:

    kle4 said:

    Just received a 4 page newspaper size 'Europe and You' sheet from Britain Stronger in Europe.

    Most interestingly from my perspective is the back page has a whole list of UKIP Myths' and 'UKIP Propaganda' (though smaller print says 'UKIP and others' spreading myths. I'm curious why the association of the 'myths' purely with UKIP. It claims to be SW focused (sections on 'Business in the SW', so maybe they didn't want to trash it as Tory eurosceptic myths as well to not upset partisans. Additionally, it counters each 'myth' statement with the 'truth' and for some reason includes a source for the claims on some, but not all of them for some reason.

    Also, it is listed as for January/February 2016, which makes me worried I'll get 6 of these a year.

    That would be a spend of approximately £9million. They don't have the manpower to deliver them by hand and have to rely on posting them. This is where the Eurofanatics will come unstuck. I doubt they have sufficient activists to spread their message in the way that Eurosceptics do. My constituncy has had 10s of thousands of leaflets delivered, street stalls, etc.
    You sound like a Labour activist just before the election, hyping up their awesome ground game with their many thousands of activists.

    Remain have Stephen Gilbert working for them, he worked for CCHQ at the election, and was one of the architects of the Tory customised targeting strategy that worked wonders in appealing to the voters that matter.
    Actually Labour's groundgame was successful where it was used. Labour's problem was that sending thousands of activists into Hornsey and Bermondsey (as IOS boasted about) wasn't the best use of their resources. But then Labour have been withdrawing ever more into their comfort zone for a decade.

    Meanwhile many of the Conservatives best results came as a surprise to them, not to mention the 'experts', but not perhaps to those who have been saying since 2007 that Labour's industrial wwc vote was unravelling.

    How effective Stephen Gilbert was I don't know - I always have doubts about the cult of the current 'genius' - but I'd say this image shifted thousands of votes rightwards:

    http://mashable.com/2015/04/17/debate-photo-hug/

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    Danny565 said:

    Danny565 said:

    Tim Farron, the Liberal Democrat leader, is in secret talks with Jeremy Corbyn about voting reform in a bid to form a progressive electoral alliance against the Conservatives.

    Mr Farron’s aides are talking to a Labour MP – a close ally of Mr Corbyn – who is acting as a conduit between the two leaders, The Independent on Sunday can reveal.

    http://goo.gl/Gllf00

    These people really are thick. I will laugh when their "reforms" result in a perpetual right of centre government in the UK.
    Do you think the typical UKIP voter in the North of England is "right of centre"?
    I think the only time Labour has come close to the levers of power in the past 4 decades is when they adopted right of centre policies.

    I am not talking about what individual parties might gain. I am talking about what wins British general elections. It isn't the sort of policies being espoused by Labour or the Lib Dems currently.
    Are the Lib Dems espousing any policies currently?

    Anywho, you may be right that the public will only vote for "right of centre" governments (though I personally disagree that the Blair/Brown governments were "right of centre"), but what I didn't understand was your inference that PR would make right-of-centre governments more likely. Northern Kippers, in my experience, are very far away from Douglas Carswell-esque libertarian "small state" policies.
    I think the Northern Kippers tend to be very small 'c' or socially conservative. They are certainly more 'right' wing socially than much of the southern UKIP support which is often more socially liberal.
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    glwglw Posts: 9,556

    glw said:

    JJ wants a power sharing deal with the Argies over the Falklands...

    Honestly if you had told me a year ago that in 2016 the Labour leader would be espousing such ideas I would have laughed at the absurd suggestion.

    There's a bit of me that thinks Corbyn is deliberately coming out with some of this barmy stuff to force the moderates to push off.
    As I say it is Comical Ali stuff...
    That's unfair to Comical Ali, there's no evidence he believed the nonsense he was spouting, and he sure as hell didn't want to cross Saddam by disagreeing with him. Corbyn on the other hand appears to believe every bit of ludicrous tripe that passes his lips.
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited January 2016
    Does anyone "in the know" about the Tory campaign know whether any of the Tory gains in 2015 had not even been on the Tories' target list?

    Someone told me the Plymouth Moor View Tory candidate had been "abandoned" by CCHQ and had all resources pulled because they thought it was a lost cause, but don't know how accurate that is.
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    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Jonathan said:

    Tim Farron, the Liberal Democrat leader, is in secret talks with Jeremy Corbyn about voting reform in a bid to form a progressive electoral alliance against the Conservatives.

    Mr Farron’s aides are talking to a Labour MP – a close ally of Mr Corbyn – who is acting as a conduit between the two leaders, The Independent on Sunday can reveal.

    http://goo.gl/Gllf00

    These people really are thick. I will laugh when their "reforms" result in a perpetual right of centre government in the UK.
    I thought Tim Farron was astute, but why on earth would you want to associate yourself with Jeremy Corbyn?
    Can't be worse than the near death experience of getting close to the Conservatives.
    Yes it can.....LibLab pact. One of the main reasons even after all those years they still wouldn't' use a barge pole on Labour in 2010.
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited January 2016
    Sky News: Express has a story about commercial airline pilots monitored by the RAF talking in Arabic about attacking London, Brighton and Ipswich...
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    MP_SE said:

    kle4 said:

    Just received a 4 page newspaper size 'Europe and You' sheet from Britain Stronger in Europe.

    Most interestingly from my perspective is the back page has a whole list of UKIP Myths' and 'UKIP Propaganda' (though smaller print says 'UKIP and others' spreading myths. I'm curious why the association of the 'myths' purely with UKIP. It claims to be SW focused (sections on 'Business in the SW', so maybe they didn't want to trash it as Tory eurosceptic myths as well to not upset partisans. Additionally, it counters each 'myth' statement with the 'truth' and for some reason includes a source for the claims on some, but not all of them for some reason.

    Also, it is listed as for January/February 2016, which makes me worried I'll get 6 of these a year.

    That would be a spend of approximately £9million. They don't have the manpower to deliver them by hand and have to rely on posting them. This is where the Eurofanatics will come unstuck. I doubt they have sufficient activists to spread their message in the way that Eurosceptics do. My constituncy has had 10s of thousands of leaflets delivered, street stalls, etc.
    You sound like a Labour activist just before the election, hyping up their awesome ground game with their many thousands of activists.

    Remain have Stephen Gilbert working for them, he worked for CCHQ at the election, and was one of the architects of the Tory customised targeting strategy that worked wonders in appealing to the voters that matter.
    Actually Labour's groundgame was successful where it was used. Labour's problem was that sending thousands of activists into Hornsey and Bermondsey (as IOS boasted about) wasn't the best use of their resources. But then Labour have been withdrawing ever more into their comfort zone for a decade.

    Meanwhile many of the Conservatives best results came as a surprise to them, not to mention the 'experts', but not perhaps to those who have been saying since 2007 that Labour's industrial wwc vote was unravelling.

    How effective Stephen Gilbert was I don't know - I always have doubts about the cult of the current 'genius' - but I'd say this image shifted thousands of votes rightwards:

    http://mashable.com/2015/04/17/debate-photo-hug/

    Richard, I'm someone who has canvassed for the Tory for many years, this time I was amazed at how sophisticated it was this time.

    We knew which voters we had to target, and what their 'topics' were.

    We also knew which voters to avoid, we knew they were never voting Tory and trying to canvass them or send them leaflets was a waste of time.

    If you get the chance, read the book 'Why the Tories Won' by Tim Ross, explains it there too.

    I think we learned the lessons of 2010.
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited January 2016



    Richard, I'm someone who has canvassed for the Tory for many years, this time I was amazed at how sophisticated it was this time.

    We knew which voters we had to target, and what their 'topics' were.

    We also knew which voters to avoid, we knew they were never voting Tory and trying to canvass them or send them leaflets was a waste of time.

    If you get the chance, read the book 'Why the Tories Won' by Tim Ross, explains it there too.

    I think we learned the lessons of 2010.

    One thing that was interesting from the Electoral Commission figures the other day was that, apparently, Labour didn't even spend that much less in their campaign than the Tories did.

    The difference was the Tories used their money much more efficiently, by sending tailored literature to certain people depending on what their job/ family circumstances/ interests/ concerns were. Whereas Labour mostly sent out the same generic leaflets to everyone who was designated a target voter, rather than sending out tailored leaflets to individual groups.
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    ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133

    What I will say - watching Spurs and CP - football goals should be 3 inches wider and taller

    As proposed by Sepp Blatter 20 years ago... http://www.independent.co.uk/sport/fifa-plan-bigger-goals-1322249.html
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737

    Tim Farron, the Liberal Democrat leader, is in secret talks with Jeremy Corbyn about voting reform in a bid to form a progressive electoral alliance against the Conservatives.

    Mr Farron’s aides are talking to a Labour MP – a close ally of Mr Corbyn – who is acting as a conduit between the two leaders, The Independent on Sunday can reveal.

    http://goo.gl/Gllf00

    Ah, well, Labour has decided this has to be the easier option than defeating the SNP, and is now their only way back to power...

    I laid the options out starkly on these pages immediately after the election, and again only a couple of weeks ago.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,044
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    Danny565 said:

    Does anyone "in the know" about the Tory campaign know whether any of the Tory gains in 2015 had not even been on the Tories' target list?

    Someone told me the Plymouth Moor View Tory candidate had been "abandoned" by CCHQ and had all resources pulled because they thought it was a lost cause, but don't know how accurate that is.

    Not true about Jonny Mercer.

    I have heard anecdotally that Telford was a surprise, Twickenham was a surprise, that they only targeted Vince Cable to keep him tied up there so he couldn't go campaigning elsewhere in the country.

    A mixture of the mansion tax and the SNP is what helped defeat him.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,044

    Danny565 said:

    Does anyone "in the know" about the Tory campaign know whether any of the Tory gains in 2015 had not even been on the Tories' target list?

    Someone told me the Plymouth Moor View Tory candidate had been "abandoned" by CCHQ and had all resources pulled because they thought it was a lost cause, but don't know how accurate that is.

    Not true about Jonny Mercer.

    I have heard anecdotally that Telford was a surprise, Twickenham was a surprise, that they only targeted Vince Cable to keep him tied up there so he couldn't go campaigning elsewhere in the country.

    A mixture of the mansion tax and the SNP is what helped defeat him.
    Telford has indeed turned out to be a a surprise...
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    Pulpstar said:

    Danny565 said:

    Does anyone "in the know" about the Tory campaign know whether any of the Tory gains in 2015 had not even been on the Tories' target list?

    Someone told me the Plymouth Moor View Tory candidate had been "abandoned" by CCHQ and had all resources pulled because they thought it was a lost cause, but don't know how accurate that is.

    Not true about Jonny Mercer.

    I have heard anecdotally that Telford was a surprise, Twickenham was a surprise, that they only targeted Vince Cable to keep him tied up there so he couldn't go campaigning elsewhere in the country.

    A mixture of the mansion tax and the SNP is what helped defeat him.
    Telford has indeed turned out to be a a surprise...
    Might have been better if it has remained a Labour hold.

    Then again, Aidan Burley's bellendery didn't do the Tories any harm in Cannock Chase.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,130
    Pulpstar said:
    Perhaps becoming a jihadi grants one that power, which is unfortunate. Not that I would necessarily want to grow such a beard, but it'd be nice to have the option.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,044
    How are Labour/Lib Dems intending to get that there VI reform through the house with the Tory majority. Or will the candidates not stand against each other ?

    I guess the Lib Dems probably can't afford 600+ lost deposits next GE tbh.
This discussion has been closed.