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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Alastair Meeks on why London is different and why Sadiq Kha

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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    SeanT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    SF So where do you see the massive inyer face gap in wealth...

    Bishops' Avenue, Hampstead Town, South Kensington, Chelsea, Blackheath Village, Canary Wharf, at one end of the scale Seven Sisters, Peckham, Elephant & Castle, Mile End, Stonebridge Park, Colindale at the other. And within plenty of wards, luxury gated developments, and 18th century mansions, next to grotty social housing.

    It's borne out in Alistair's figures. The highest GVA in the country along with the highest concentration of poverty.
    It's true, in Hampstead there are massive gaps between millionaires and billionaires.
    Swiss Cottage is a good example of a ward where you have blocks of social housing next to houses worth millions.
    My street, Delancey, in Camden, must have one of the most vertiginous social divides in the UK, if not the world. At the junction, near the bottom, with Arlington Road, you've got several homeless hostels for drunks and junkies, literally the poorest in society. Across the road there's social housing. As you ascend the street this is interspersed with private Georgian terraced houses worth £2m. Go 200 yards to the top of the street and a three bed FLAT will cost you £2m. Go another 200 yards round the corner, to the Nash Terraces, and a decent house will cost you £15m. Or more.
    The late, great Douglas Adams wrote something similar about Islington in one of his books.
    There's nowhere in Islington with houses worth £10-£30m, like the Nash Terraces.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2342678/Tycoon-buys-seven-Regents-Park-houses-create-200m-supermansion-underground-leisure-complex.html

    https://www.onthemarket.com/details/2115002/
    One of my great regrets is being talked out of buying one of the houses in Park Square East.
    Oof. Though i guess the pain depends on how much it was going for....

    For about a year I actually squatted a house on Albany Street that overlooked the Nash Terraces. That squat must be worth £5m now.

    Amazing to think how many empty properties once littered central London. Empty and derelict. Almost forgotten.
    Come to think of it, a lot of the multi-squillion Nash terraces on Albany Street (alongside Regent's Park, for non-London pb-ers) were given over to student flats, now since sold. In yet another reversal of fortunes, there are now many privately developed blocks of student flats in London, now that rents are not limited to whatever was in the student grant.
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    ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    Another massive (20%) Don't know figure for the EuroRef in an online poll.

    If anything, 20% undecided sounds on the low side; in any event, I am one of them. Not only do I not know how I will vote, but I have absolutely no idea on what criteria I shall decide. Neither side has made a compelling case for anything at all, or even an uncompelling one.
    Agree - I'm another "Don't know" - but as I suspect with you it's "I'm thinking about it and I don't yet know which way I'll jump" - whereas I suspect for a lot of voters it's "I haven't thought about it yet - why should I?" And on that basis 20% seems low....
    Bit that is the paradox. The 'high' don't know figures are for online polls - which give a close result. Phone polls have a tiny don't know figure and have a comfortable Remain lead.
    I'm not sure that's a paradox. If people are "don't know" because they haven't considered the matter, they may be more reluctant to admit that to a live interviewer. And in that case, the easy answer is to say "remain".
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Cahrles..both you and SF must walk around other Cities with your eyes closed..

    No - the extremes are there in NYC and LA as well, as well as Baltimore. I can't really comments on other cities as I don't know them as well, although both Paris and Bruxelles are fairly segregated
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    CornishBlueCornishBlue Posts: 840
    edited January 2016

    Scott_P said:

    @BBCNormanS: Falkland Islanders shd have a big say - but no veto - over their future says Jeremy Corbyn @MarrShow

    No veto? - Falkland Islanders voted overwhelmingly to remain a part of the UK – Jeremy Corbyn obviously does not support the principle of self-determination.
    Hence why most of the left now support the EU (and oppose a referendum on our membership). The doctrine is that "big brother knows best".
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,070

    TOPPING said:

    Sean_F said:

    Scott_P said:

    @BBCNormanS: Falkland Islanders shd have a big say - but no veto - over their future says Jeremy Corbyn @MarrShow

    That's nice for the Falkanders.

    Good and bad news for Brexit. Survation has Leave ahead 42% to 38%. But Gove has now become a fan of the EU.
    Interesting choice of Nick Herbert to lead qualified Remain campaign.
    Never read such gash as I have this morning, the scaremongering is pathetic.

    And Clegg still wants Turkey to join...
    It doesn't matter who wants Turkey to join, from Angela Merkel to Nick Clegg to the Pope himself, it isn't going to happen. It is just another form of virtue signalling.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Something I'd like to ask re the doctors strike, as a result of Hunt's reforms will they be financially worse off?

    And to clarify, please ignore conditions, hours etc, will the pay packet be cut.

    My understanding is that approximately 99% of doctors will be better off, as the 11% pay increase offsets the rebanding of weekend late nights from "anti-social" premium rates to a normal hourly rate (as a result of the move to a 7 day roster).

    There will be some doctors, i.e. those who work disproportionately during these premium hours, who will earn less under the new system but this is a very small number
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    malcolmg said:

    Something I'd like to ask re the doctors strike, as a result of Hunt's reforms will they be financially worse off?

    And to clarify, please ignore conditions, hours etc, will the pay packet be cut.

    Thought they were getting an 11% pay rise but no more double time for weekends, so you cannot swap shifts and make a fortune by working every weekend.
    That is not the way it works. Jr Drs do not fill in timesheets (though will need to do so with the new contract). The post is banded and the rota includes all the unsocial hours divided across the staff. So swapping to do a weekend instead of a wednesday does not get the Dr any extra pay.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,903
    edited January 2016

    Roger said:

    Dan Hodges
    Return to secondary picketing. Keep trident subs but not their weapons. Do deal on Falklands. Understand Isis "strong points". Vote Labour.

    That's the Tory leaflets done for every election Labour contest under Corbyn....
    Well let's hope their comprehension is better than yours. He said no such thing.
    You are a bit thick aren't you....it isn't what he says, it is how it can his views can be (mis) represented.
    If the object is to invent something that Central Office can use to make him seem ridiculous and a bit sinister why not say that as a young man he had sex with a dead pig? That'll work
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    notme said:

    Moses_ said:

    Scott_P said:

    @afneil: Mr Corbyn floats idea that we could keep Trident but without nuclear warheads ....

    LOl.
    Perhaps we should put pretty coloured glitter in them .........or even marshmallows?
    Putin must piss himself...This English man...very funny comedian...always liked English comedian....yeeess very good....far better than those racist Meerkats telling me to compare the market. What he isn't comedian, he is in the running to replace fatty arsed Cameron. I always said this democracy very overrated. Here in Russian we never allow such a man to stand.
    Isnt the major cost the actual submarine replacements? The warheads we just lease from the US. What would be the point of the submarines without one?
    Warheads: Aldermaston.
    Delivery: Trident D5 (pooled).
    Deployment: BAE Systems.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,369



    Corbyn has not reined in his activists at all when they have harrassed party loyalists not of his taste. The picketing of Stella Creasy's house for example.

    But that's doubly mistaken: (a) Stella says her house was not picketed, and all that happened is that a delegation of critics turned up at her (closed) office. I was on her campaign team and believe her rather than the media spin. (b) Corbyn has repeatedly urged supporters not to harass anyone.
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    flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903
    edited January 2016

    This is a most entertaining morning. Thanks Jezza

    Trident subs without missiles as a job creation programme.
    Give away Falklands

    Given the latter policy I do not see why Labour would need a defence policy, just a question of how high we hold up our hands to show everyone we have surrendered.
    Corbyn is truly a monumental pillock.

    Oh PS - I forgot the give in to trade unions on every front and bring back secondary picketing.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    That must count as Corbyn's worst interview yet: unilateral disarmament, secondary strikes and negotiate the Falklands away. Dreadful #marr

    Problem is a third of the electorate will vote for him. This is what happens when the Conservative party become obsessed with securing "the centre ground".

    Of course, if the Tories headed to the right then possibly 40% of the electorate would vote for him.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    kle4 said:

    This may be a stupid question, but what is secondary picketing?

    Allowing people to picket in places that are not related to their work (e.g. joining a picket in support of another union).

    Flying pickets (mobile squads) are even more disruptive
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,088

    malcolmg said:

    Something I'd like to ask re the doctors strike, as a result of Hunt's reforms will they be financially worse off?

    And to clarify, please ignore conditions, hours etc, will the pay packet be cut.

    Thought they were getting an 11% pay rise but no more double time for weekends, so you cannot swap shifts and make a fortune by working every weekend.
    That is not the way it works. Jr Drs do not fill in timesheets (though will need to do so with the new contract). The post is banded and the rota includes all the unsocial hours divided across the staff. So swapping to do a weekend instead of a wednesday does not get the Dr any extra pay.
    Thanks for reply. Does that mean then that you can get the money for the band and swap all your "antisocial" shifts. Though that means you need to get someone who does not count them as same.
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    MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    Excellent idea - perhaps we can have a check list of all the things we don't want our money to go to?

    Would be very popular.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,672
    Sean_F said:

    Scott_P said:

    @BBCNormanS: Falkland Islanders shd have a big say - but no veto - over their future says Jeremy Corbyn @MarrShow

    That's nice for the Falkanders.

    Good and bad news for Brexit. Survation has Leave ahead 42% to 38%. But Gove has now become a fan of the EU.
    The lily-livered flip-flopping of senior Conservatives over the EU has become one of the most disappointing features of this referendum campaign.
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    richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    Charles Leith in Edinburgh..Gorbals in Glasgow..most parts of Liverpool near The Wirral..any major dock city with most of the areas away from the docks..Harehills but a half mile from the mansions of Roundhay
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Something I'd like to ask re the doctors strike, as a result of Hunt's reforms will they be financially worse off?

    And to clarify, please ignore conditions, hours etc, will the pay packet be cut.

    It is a little hard to be certain as Hunt has been very vague on detail. Trainees in areas like dermatology or pathology who do not work unsocial hours will be better off with a 11% payrise. Doctors currently on a 50% banding such as Obstetricians, Anaesthetists, Neurosurgeons will lose their banding (33% of their income) but get an 11% rise. So the Docs who do already provide weekend services get a paycut while those who do not get a payrise!

    There are some short term provisions for pay protection, which is where Hunts claim that only 1% will be worse off comes from. This is time limited and also does not apply to the Junior docs that move programmes. So for example the 8200 August vacancies for each of Foundation Trainees (the lowest grade) or ST1 (the first year of Specialist or GP Training) will not get pay protection and will be paid up to 22% less than their peers the year before.

    Incidentally the recruitment round for August is well underway and applicants cannot judge whether they will be paid and expected to work the new contract. I suspect applications for emergency heavy specialities will be down in a big way. Emergency dept vacancies were already very frequently unfillable.

    Thanks, so when all is said and done it's about money.

    Sorry mate but you'll have little support among the wider public.

    The financial parts of the contract are the "Not Fair" part, the other aspects are the "Not Safe" part of the BMA JDC slogan. In particular the alterations to permitted shift patterns, the removal of monitoring of hours worked, the penalisation of part time work and career breaks for research etc.

    Contrary to Mr Hunt's claims there has not been agreement on the non-financial aspects of the contract.
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    nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    edited January 2016
    Charles said:

    Something I'd like to ask re the doctors strike, as a result of Hunt's reforms will they be financially worse off?

    And to clarify, please ignore conditions, hours etc, will the pay packet be cut.

    My understanding is that approximately 99% of doctors will be better off, as the 11% pay increase offsets the rebanding of weekend late nights from "anti-social" premium rates to a normal hourly rate (as a result of the move to a 7 day roster).

    There will be some doctors, i.e. those who work disproportionately during these premium hours, who will earn less under the new system but this is a very small number
    I may well be wrong but isn't the maximum number of hours they can work being reduced from 91 to 72?

    Genuine question, no agenda
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    Just watched the Corbyn interview (the Marr show is on iPlayer)...

    £3 very well spent.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,903
    edited January 2016
    SeanT said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Dan Hodges
    Return to secondary picketing. Keep trident subs but not their weapons. Do deal on Falklands. Understand Isis "strong points". Vote Labour.

    That's the Tory leaflets done for every election Labour contest under Corbyn....
    Well let's hope their comprehension is better than yours. He said no such thing.
    You are a bit thick aren't you....it isn't what he says, it is how it can his views can be (mis) represented.
    If the object is to invent something that Central Office can use to make him seem ridiculous and a bit sinister why not say that as a young man he had sex with a dead pig? That'll work
    It's interesting to note that the alleged pig-shagging did Cameron absolutely no damage whatsoever.



    In stark contrast the Tories have done a VERY good job at destroying Corbyn from the off, though they do have better material to work with.
    Of course not because that's what Tories do...
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,050
    edited January 2016
    Back on briefly, given the independent interview included Corbyn regretting his phrasing over the 'shoot to kill' stuff as it offered an unfortunate gift to his political opponents in how he phrased his point (the substance he obviously does not regret) I'm surprised he would make the same error re 'back channels talking' with ISIS, and shall have to see exactly what he did say. He would be well advised to steer clear of any such talk, as while we do end up talking to terrorist groups eventually they have to be in a position where there is a point to such talks, which ISIS at present and forseeable future clearly are not, so why bother bringing it up even as an abstract point.

    And for heaven's sake man, stop talking about the Falklands. What sort of 'reasonable accommodation' can be reached, when they want the Islands back and the Islanders don't want that? This is one of those situations where there isn't a middle ground. Either we give it to them or we don't. Shared sovereignty doesn't seem to be on their agenda, even if the islanders were interested in that.


    Excellent idea - perhaps we can have a check list of all the things we don't want our money to go to?

    Would be very popular.
    Quite. A very silly idea
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    Sean_F said:

    Scott_P said:

    @BBCNormanS: Falkland Islanders shd have a big say - but no veto - over their future says Jeremy Corbyn @MarrShow

    That's nice for the Falkanders.

    Good and bad news for Brexit. Survation has Leave ahead 42% to 38%. But Gove has now become a fan of the EU.
    The lily-livered flip-flopping of senior Conservatives over the EU has become one of the most disappointing features of this referendum campaign.
    Putting their careers ahead of the prospects of future generations is disgusting.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    Something I'd like to ask re the doctors strike, as a result of Hunt's reforms will they be financially worse off?

    And to clarify, please ignore conditions, hours etc, will the pay packet be cut.

    Thought they were getting an 11% pay rise but no more double time for weekends, so you cannot swap shifts and make a fortune by working every weekend.
    That is not the way it works. Jr Drs do not fill in timesheets (though will need to do so with the new contract). The post is banded and the rota includes all the unsocial hours divided across the staff. So swapping to do a weekend instead of a wednesday does not get the Dr any extra pay.
    Thanks for reply. Does that mean then that you can get the money for the band and swap all your "antisocial" shifts. Though that means you need to get someone who does not count them as same.
    In theory that is possible, in practice though it is not possible. There are restrictions on how many consecutive days or hours that are permitted for example. In addition there are not enough people wanting to swap into weekends, so swaps are like for like.

    So if I want a Saturday off to get to a Leicester City match then in practice I need to swap for another Saturday/Sunday. It can be a bit annoying if the fixture then gets moved!
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,672
    SeanT said:

    Interview with Corbyn which many here may find elements to agree with, if they temporarily put aside their political dislike:

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/jeremy-corbyn-interview-labour-leader-on-churches-cats-and-a-nuclear-free-world-a6816991.html

    Are you on crack?

    The article reads like a parody from thedailymash.

    "Sitting in Café Tropical, a tiny Ecuadorian diner in his Islington North constituency,"

    "Arriving on an old Raleigh bike, he strolls into the South American café with a llama-wool scarf draped around his neck – complete with an image of Bolivia’s socialist president, Evo Morale"

    “My cat is a black and white cat. I always call it ‘El Gato’, which is just Spanish for cat,” he explains. “When I see the cat I say, ‘Buenos dias, El Gato’. Actually, cats don’t know their name, cats know voices."

    Please keep him as your leader. PLEASE.
    One wonders if Corbyn wouldn't be happier running for office in South America.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @montie: Shadow Defence Secretary has just said Japan has capability to build "nuclear bomb or whatever" #bbcsp
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,672

    Just watched the Corbyn interview (the Marr show is on iPlayer)...

    £3 very well spent.

    Actually, I think it's a disaster for the Conservatives.
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Montie

    Shadow Defence Secretary has just said Japan has capability to build "nuclear bomb or whatever" #bbcsp
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    Sean_F said:

    Scott_P said:

    @BBCNormanS: Falkland Islanders shd have a big say - but no veto - over their future says Jeremy Corbyn @MarrShow

    That's nice for the Falkanders.

    Good and bad news for Brexit. Survation has Leave ahead 42% to 38%. But Gove has now become a fan of the EU.
    The lily-livered flip-flopping of senior Conservatives over the EU has become one of the most disappointing features of this referendum campaign.
    Absolutely fuming about Gove.

    The afternoon thread was about Gove being the right man to lead Leave, so had to scrap that.
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    Charles said:

    Cahrles..both you and SF must walk around other Cities with your eyes closed..

    No - the extremes are there in NYC and LA as well, as well as Baltimore. I can't really comments on other cities as I don't know them as well, although both Paris and Bruxelles are fairly segregated
    Interesting that you think in world rather than in UK terms when talking about cities other than London.

    You are right though that similar extremes of wealth exist in such places.

    Whereas they don't in secondary cities within the same country and even less so in medium sized towns.
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    Betting tip. I'm at Anfield today, back Man U to win, Liverpool have a horrific record recently when I go watch them live.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,075
    MattW said:

    All seems very sensible. Thanks, Mr Meeks.

    London seems to be Labour's only hope of something good happening for them this year. They should be piling resources into it.

    As an aside, excepting the proposed union funding changes, do we have any idea what Labour's financial state is?

    Edit: and Thirst. After sixteen days with no alcohol, I am rather thirsty. ;)

    Remember. Nanny McFiction says that you must have several days a week with no alcohol at all, or you will die a horrible death and it will be your own fault.
    I'm not actually doing it for my health, and although I hope it continues for more than January, it's nothing to do with a charity gig.

    I've also decided not to eat crisps (*), which I think will be much better for my health than any resolution about alcohol. I've been putting on weight now I'm not walking 1,000 or more miles a year, so I need to cut down somewhat. And my son benefiting seems like a good way to encourage myself.

    Every time I don't buy a bottle of wine I would have bought I put the money into a pot, the contents of which will go into my son's bank account. Therefore if anyone offers to buy me a drink I'll happily accept. ;)

    I wonder how long it'll last ...

    (*) Unless served with food, or at parties. Basically, not going into shops to buy them.
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Ditto.

    Just watched the Corbyn interview (the Marr show is on iPlayer)...

    £3 very well spent.

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    Tim Montgomerie on Lady Nugee's voice

    @IsabelOakeshott I'd admit to finding it quite sexy. Not so keen on her make love, not war policies.

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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,672

    Sean_F said:

    Scott_P said:

    @BBCNormanS: Falkland Islanders shd have a big say - but no veto - over their future says Jeremy Corbyn @MarrShow

    That's nice for the Falkanders.

    Good and bad news for Brexit. Survation has Leave ahead 42% to 38%. But Gove has now become a fan of the EU.
    The lily-livered flip-flopping of senior Conservatives over the EU has become one of the most disappointing features of this referendum campaign.
    Absolutely fuming about Gove.

    The afternoon thread was about Gove being the right man to lead Leave, so had to scrap that.
    Sorry to hear that - I agree: Gove would have been a good choice; someone has been whispering in his ear.

    It only leaves May:

    "One the biggest risks to Cameron’s security strategy is Theresa May. If the longest serving home secretary for more than a century were to declare herself an ‘outer’ on the grounds that being in the EU makes Britain less safe — backed by Liam Fox, Cameron’s first defence secretary — it would blow a big hole in the government’s case. But no one knows on which side Mrs May will come down: she seems to be the only person in Westminster who is actually waiting to see what the final renegotiated deal looks like"

    http://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/01/scary-monsters-david-cameron-will-invoke-the-threat-of-jihadis-russia-and-crime-to-win-an-eu-invote/
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,075
    Scott_P said:

    @montie: Shadow Defence Secretary has just said Japan has capability to build "nuclear bomb or whatever" #bbcsp

    He's obviously read 'Debt of Honor'.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,956
    edited January 2016
    Are these telegraph headlines really correct?

    Hes going to keep the subs but not the warheads. And wants to accommodate the argies?

    If true, he really is off the scale....
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,050
    edited January 2016

    Sean_F said:

    Scott_P said:

    @BBCNormanS: Falkland Islanders shd have a big say - but no veto - over their future says Jeremy Corbyn @MarrShow

    That's nice for the Falkanders.

    Good and bad news for Brexit. Survation has Leave ahead 42% to 38%. But Gove has now become a fan of the EU.
    The lily-livered flip-flopping of senior Conservatives over the EU has become one of the most disappointing features of this referendum campaign.
    Putting their careers ahead of the prospects of future generations is disgusting.
    Maybe they were never really Leavers in the first place, they were just soft eurosceptics who thought they might go that route, until actually presented with the choice.

    But I'm with SeanT on this one, I think the debate is at a point where such things don't matter, that the fear and dislike may have reached a point where technical arguments from besuited politicos will fall on deaf ears on both sides. And Leave is making the running at the moment.
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    MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    Sean_F said:

    Scott_P said:

    @BBCNormanS: Falkland Islanders shd have a big say - but no veto - over their future says Jeremy Corbyn @MarrShow

    That's nice for the Falkanders.

    Good and bad news for Brexit. Survation has Leave ahead 42% to 38%. But Gove has now become a fan of the EU.
    The lily-livered flip-flopping of senior Conservatives over the EU has become one of the most disappointing features of this referendum campaign.
    Absolutely fuming about Gove.

    The afternoon thread was about Gove being the right man to lead Leave, so had to scrap that.

    Hold on to it, he might be back next week.
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    Just watched the Corbyn interview (the Marr show is on iPlayer)...

    £3 very well spent.

    Actually, I think it's a disaster for the Conservatives.
    It's not though, at least not in the short-medium term. Longer term... who knows.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @JananGanesh: Labour has to hope that nobody watches Sunday morning political shows. #bbcsp #marr

    @hopisen: They don't. All fine if don't say anything that looks really bad when run as 10 sec TV clip or in hostile paper

    Oh. https://t.co/YVBjC4VplQ
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    flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903

    Roger said:

    Dan Hodges
    Return to secondary picketing. Keep trident subs but not their weapons. Do deal on Falklands. Understand Isis "strong points". Vote Labour.

    That's the Tory leaflets done for every election Labour contest under Corbyn....
    Well let's hope their comprehension is better than yours. He said no such thing.
    You are a bit thick aren't you....it isn't what he says, it is how it can his views can be (mis) represented.
    People are not misrepresenting him. He does want to give away the Falklands, he has massive south american sympathies. He would not put missiles in Trident Subs he would destroy our role in the world and leave NATO and or be a total untrustworthy ally of the Western Alliance. He would repeal all the trade union laws and bring in other anti industry laws and would renationalise what he could and waste money on what he calls the public sector.
    He has no notion of how to manage an economy and would drive our nation into the dust.
    Far from misrepresenting him, most people are totally underestimating how totally and completely thick he is.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,075

    Just watched the Corbyn interview (the Marr show is on iPlayer)...

    £3 very well spent.

    Mr Blue, I don't know if you saw from the other night, but I took a stab at answering your question about which cost more: building the Dreadnoughts or Trident. The rough answer, as you guessed, was the Dreadnought construction.
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    Sean_F said:

    Scott_P said:

    @BBCNormanS: Falkland Islanders shd have a big say - but no veto - over their future says Jeremy Corbyn @MarrShow

    That's nice for the Falkanders.

    Good and bad news for Brexit. Survation has Leave ahead 42% to 38%. But Gove has now become a fan of the EU.
    The lily-livered flip-flopping of senior Conservatives over the EU has become one of the most disappointing features of this referendum campaign.
    Absolutely fuming about Gove.

    The afternoon thread was about Gove being the right man to lead Leave, so had to scrap that.
    Sorry to hear that - I agree: Gove would have been a good choice; someone has been whispering in his ear.

    It only leaves May:

    "One the biggest risks to Cameron’s security strategy is Theresa May. If the longest serving home secretary for more than a century were to declare herself an ‘outer’ on the grounds that being in the EU makes Britain less safe — backed by Liam Fox, Cameron’s first defence secretary — it would blow a big hole in the government’s case. But no one knows on which side Mrs May will come down: she seems to be the only person in Westminster who is actually waiting to see what the final renegotiated deal looks like"

    http://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/01/scary-monsters-david-cameron-will-invoke-the-threat-of-jihadis-russia-and-crime-to-win-an-eu-invote/
    I think he's done it out of loyalty to Dave, which I can sympathise with.

    When Cameron bumped him down to Chief Whip he did it without rancour.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @MarvinNeoCon: @JananGanesh What's the term for a non-stop set of car-crash interviews? A Nürburgring?
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,672
    SeanT said:

    Sean_F said:

    Scott_P said:

    @BBCNormanS: Falkland Islanders shd have a big say - but no veto - over their future says Jeremy Corbyn @MarrShow

    That's nice for the Falkanders.

    Good and bad news for Brexit. Survation has Leave ahead 42% to 38%. But Gove has now become a fan of the EU.
    The lily-livered flip-flopping of senior Conservatives over the EU has become one of the most disappointing features of this referendum campaign.
    See my other comment. I don't think it particularly matters what either side says during this campaign. In the end it will be won with emotions - fear versus freedom, "sovereignty" versus "safety", in essence.

    This is why the migrant crisis, in all its forms, is so crucial to the campaign. Even now in the depths of winter 25,000 have arrived since the start of the year. i.e. in just two weeks.

    http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/635178/migrant-crisis-number-refugees-arriving-boats-trebles

    The fear of migration might easily trump the fear of going it alone. LEAVE can win this.
    Will it win over enough of the middle-class, middle-aged voters who are less swayed by migration but could be converted through a positive aspirational economic case, though?

    I'm not sure. I see a "Remain" vote as bound between 42%-62% now, and I'm really not sure where in that bracket it will fall.

    But almost all people seem to think turnout will be crucial.
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    flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903
    Scott_P said:

    @steve_hawkes: The problem is - Jeremy Corbyn can make valid attacks on the Tories on welfare, flooding, transport, rip-offs.. then he goes and does that

    He can make attacks but they would not be valid.
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    Scott_P said:

    @MarvinNeoCon: @JananGanesh What's the term for a non-stop set of car-crash interviews? A Nürburgring?

    A Pastor.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Charles said:

    Something I'd like to ask re the doctors strike, as a result of Hunt's reforms will they be financially worse off?

    And to clarify, please ignore conditions, hours etc, will the pay packet be cut.

    My understanding is that approximately 99% of doctors will be better off, as the 11% pay increase offsets the rebanding of weekend late nights from "anti-social" premium rates to a normal hourly rate (as a result of the move to a 7 day roster).

    There will be some doctors, i.e. those who work disproportionately during these premium hours, who will earn less under the new system but this is a very small number
    As I pointed out below, Hunts figures on this are misleading. The only doctors who will be better off are those that do not work weekends such as pathology. The rest is the "pay-protection" that does not apply to a large percentage of the juniors and is only short term.

    Doctors are not thick, understand how their pay works and can do sums very well. I am yet to meet one who would not prefer existing pay and terms.
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Seumas is worth every penny, even if working for free.
    Scott_P said:

    @MarvinNeoCon: @JananGanesh What's the term for a non-stop set of car-crash interviews? A Nürburgring?

  • Options

    Just watched the Corbyn interview (the Marr show is on iPlayer)...

    £3 very well spent.

    Mr Blue, I don't know if you saw from the other night, but I took a stab at answering your question about which cost more: building the Dreadnoughts or Trident. The rough answer, as you guessed, was the Dreadnought construction.
    Ah, sorry, no I didn't! But will look it up now.

    My calculation that our nuclear deterrent costs one-thousandth of our economy should be wheeled out time and time again. It's incredible value for money, considering it guarantees our security v. other great powers (and potentially dodgy middle powers such as Iran and N Korea).
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,593

    Montie

    Shadow Defence Secretary has just said Japan has capability to build "nuclear bomb or whatever" #bbcsp

    Interestingly this is true.

    The Japanese have a large nuclear industry. Due to work or reprocessing and fast breeder reactors, Japan has a very large stockpile of plutonium. Normally commercially produced plutonium is pretty useless for bombs (too much Pu-241), but some of their stock pile is quite old. So the 241 has decayed.. Not sure if they have processed the plutonium to remove the daughter decay products - but that would be simple chemistry.

    So the Japanese have several tons of weapons grade plutonium, and a several very large solid fuel rockets.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M-V
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epsilon_(rocket)

    All solid fuel is a strange choice for a space launcher - but required for a military weapon. Epsilon is designed to require a very small crew to launch it...

    All this means that Japan has the capability to go nuclear very quickly. In fact this has been described as a deterrent deterrent - if the US withdraws it's protection of Japan, it will go nuclear. Which in turn would start an arms race in that part of the world. So everyone leaves the situation alone.
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    TOPPING said:

    Sean_F said:

    Scott_P said:

    @BBCNormanS: Falkland Islanders shd have a big say - but no veto - over their future says Jeremy Corbyn @MarrShow

    That's nice for the Falkanders.

    Good and bad news for Brexit. Survation has Leave ahead 42% to 38%. But Gove has now become a fan of the EU.
    Interesting choice of Nick Herbert to lead qualified Remain campaign.
    Seems to favour whoever pays.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,672

    Sean_F said:

    Scott_P said:

    @BBCNormanS: Falkland Islanders shd have a big say - but no veto - over their future says Jeremy Corbyn @MarrShow

    That's nice for the Falkanders.

    Good and bad news for Brexit. Survation has Leave ahead 42% to 38%. But Gove has now become a fan of the EU.
    The lily-livered flip-flopping of senior Conservatives over the EU has become one of the most disappointing features of this referendum campaign.
    Absolutely fuming about Gove.

    The afternoon thread was about Gove being the right man to lead Leave, so had to scrap that.
    Sorry to hear that - I agree: Gove would have been a good choice; someone has been whispering in his ear.

    It only leaves May:

    "One the biggest risks to Cameron’s security strategy is Theresa May. If the longest serving home secretary for more than a century were to declare herself an ‘outer’ on the grounds that being in the EU makes Britain less safe — backed by Liam Fox, Cameron’s first defence secretary — it would blow a big hole in the government’s case. But no one knows on which side Mrs May will come down: she seems to be the only person in Westminster who is actually waiting to see what the final renegotiated deal looks like"

    http://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/01/scary-monsters-david-cameron-will-invoke-the-threat-of-jihadis-russia-and-crime-to-win-an-eu-invote/
    I think he's done it out of loyalty to Dave, which I can sympathise with.

    When Cameron bumped him down to Chief Whip he did it without rancour.
    I think you're right, which is in some ways laudable, but it's also an example of the sort of indulgence that so frustrates people about our politicians.

    This is politics. Moreover, it's about the future destiny of the whole country and its governance.

    Fear of slighting a personal relationship shouldn't come into it.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,593
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    Something I'd like to ask re the doctors strike, as a result of Hunt's reforms will they be financially worse off?

    And to clarify, please ignore conditions, hours etc, will the pay packet be cut.

    Thought they were getting an 11% pay rise but no more double time for weekends, so you cannot swap shifts and make a fortune by working every weekend.
    That is not the way it works. Jr Drs do not fill in timesheets (though will need to do so with the new contract). The post is banded and the rota includes all the unsocial hours divided across the staff. So swapping to do a weekend instead of a wednesday does not get the Dr any extra pay.
    Thanks for reply. Does that mean then that you can get the money for the band and swap all your "antisocial" shifts. Though that means you need to get someone who does not count them as same.
    I wonder how they get round the legal stuff about timesheets at the moment? HR at various places have told me there is a legal requirement to keep records of hours worked - at least in the private sector....
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @iainmartin1: Perhaps the UK's empty submarines could go around delivering letters from Corbyn to ISIS etc asking them to stop it...
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,672

    Just watched the Corbyn interview (the Marr show is on iPlayer)...

    £3 very well spent.

    Actually, I think it's a disaster for the Conservatives.
    It's not though, at least not in the short-medium term. Longer term... who knows.
    I disagree. Wait for Osborne's moves in the budget in April.
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    James Worran
    Ironically having a submarine with no missiles is much like having a political party which has no chance of winning an election.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,593
    SeanT said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Dan Hodges
    Return to secondary picketing. Keep trident subs but not their weapons. Do deal on Falklands. Understand Isis "strong points". Vote Labour.

    That's the Tory leaflets done for every election Labour contest under Corbyn....
    Well let's hope their comprehension is better than yours. He said no such thing.
    You are a bit thick aren't you....it isn't what he says, it is how it can his views can be (mis) represented.
    If the object is to invent something that Central Office can use to make him seem ridiculous and a bit sinister why not say that as a young man he had sex with a dead pig? That'll work
    It's interesting to note that the alleged pig-shagging did Cameron absolutely no damage whatsoever.

    I remember the gleeful hysteria on here, when the story first emerged, amongst pb lefties. Some were claiming he'd be gone by teatime.

    Yet, pffft.

    In stark contrast the Tories have done a VERY good job at destroying Corbyn from the off, though they do have better material to work with.
    The reason the Cameron story evaporated was it turned out to be A-Drunk-Guy-Boasted-He-Someone-Who-Knew-Someone-Who-Said story. AKA bullshit.

    With Corbyn, you have quotes from the man - often spoken to camera.
  • Options
    felixfelix Posts: 15,125

    Roger said:

    Dan Hodges
    Return to secondary picketing. Keep trident subs but not their weapons. Do deal on Falklands. Understand Isis "strong points". Vote Labour.

    That's the Tory leaflets done for every election Labour contest under Corbyn....
    Well let's hope their comprehension is better than yours. He said no such thing.
    You are a bit thick aren't you....it isn't what he says, it is how it can his views can be (mis) represented.
    People are not misrepresenting him. He does want to give away the Falklands, he has massive south american sympathies. He would not put missiles in Trident Subs he would destroy our role in the world and leave NATO and or be a total untrustworthy ally of the Western Alliance. He would repeal all the trade union laws and bring in other anti industry laws and would renationalise what he could and waste money on what he calls the public sector.
    He has no notion of how to manage an economy and would drive our nation into the dust.
    Far from misrepresenting him, most people are totally underestimating how totally and completely thick he is.
    But NPXMP says he's a really nice bloke......
  • Options

    Montie

    Shadow Defence Secretary has just said Japan has capability to build "nuclear bomb or whatever" #bbcsp

    Interestingly this is true.

    The Japanese have a large nuclear industry. Due to work or reprocessing and fast breeder reactors, Japan has a very large stockpile of plutonium. Normally commercially produced plutonium is pretty useless for bombs (too much Pu-241), but some of their stock pile is quite old. So the 241 has decayed.. Not sure if they have processed the plutonium to remove the daughter decay products - but that would be simple chemistry.

    So the Japanese have several tons of weapons grade plutonium, and a several very large solid fuel rockets.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M-V
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epsilon_(rocket)

    All solid fuel is a strange choice for a space launcher - but required for a military weapon. Epsilon is designed to require a very small crew to launch it...

    All this means that Japan has the capability to go nuclear very quickly. In fact this has been described as a deterrent deterrent - if the US withdraws it's protection of Japan, it will go nuclear. Which in turn would start an arms race in that part of the world. So everyone leaves the situation alone.
    I think the point was how she said "...or whatever" and also how Labour are now happy to get rid of our nuclear weapons (and remember we are one of the P5 and we have the absolute minimum in warheads etc to provide a deterrent) during a time when other countries / regions are developing and increasing their nukes.

    Japan, Germany... these are countries that have had the capability to have nukes for decades, but are politically not allowed.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,956
    O/T - does anyone know how long it will take Iranian oil to come online. Surely that will crucify the price...?
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,568

    Sean_F said:

    Scott_P said:

    @BBCNormanS: Falkland Islanders shd have a big say - but no veto - over their future says Jeremy Corbyn @MarrShow

    That's nice for the Falkanders.

    Good and bad news for Brexit. Survation has Leave ahead 42% to 38%. But Gove has now become a fan of the EU.
    The lily-livered flip-flopping of senior Conservatives over the EU has become one of the most disappointing features of this referendum campaign.
    Absolutely fuming about Gove.

    The afternoon thread was about Gove being the right man to lead Leave, so had to scrap that.
    Sorry to hear that - I agree: Gove would have been a good choice; someone has been whispering in his ear.

    It only leaves May:

    "One the biggest risks to Cameron’s security strategy is Theresa May. If the longest serving home secretary for more than a century were to declare herself an ‘outer’ on the grounds that being in the EU makes Britain less safe — backed by Liam Fox, Cameron’s first defence secretary — it would blow a big hole in the government’s case. But no one knows on which side Mrs May will come down: she seems to be the only person in Westminster who is actually waiting to see what the final renegotiated deal looks like"

    http://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/01/scary-monsters-david-cameron-will-invoke-the-threat-of-jihadis-russia-and-crime-to-win-an-eu-invote/
    Realistically, though they are meant to be allowed to campaign for either side, I'm not sure a cabinet minister could so publicly rubbish what the PM is saying about national security. That's the thing about national security, it has usually been something that the Prime Minister doesn't f**k around with as a political football, until now. There really is no unwritten rule of British political life that our current Prime Minister won't trash.
  • Options

    Sean_F said:

    Scott_P said:

    @BBCNormanS: Falkland Islanders shd have a big say - but no veto - over their future says Jeremy Corbyn @MarrShow

    That's nice for the Falkanders.

    Good and bad news for Brexit. Survation has Leave ahead 42% to 38%. But Gove has now become a fan of the EU.
    The lily-livered flip-flopping of senior Conservatives over the EU has become one of the most disappointing features of this referendum campaign.
    Absolutely fuming about Gove.

    The afternoon thread was about Gove being the right man to lead Leave, so had to scrap that.
    Sorry to hear that - I agree: Gove would have been a good choice; someone has been whispering in his ear.

    It only leaves May:

    "One the biggest risks to Cameron’s security strategy is Theresa May. If the longest serving home secretary for more than a century were to declare herself an ‘outer’ on the grounds that being in the EU makes Britain less safe — backed by Liam Fox, Cameron’s first defence secretary — it would blow a big hole in the government’s case. But no one knows on which side Mrs May will come down: she seems to be the only person in Westminster who is actually waiting to see what the final renegotiated deal looks like"

    http://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/01/scary-monsters-david-cameron-will-invoke-the-threat-of-jihadis-russia-and-crime-to-win-an-eu-invote/
    I think he's done it out of loyalty to Dave, which I can sympathise with.

    When Cameron bumped him down to Chief Whip he did it without rancour.
    I think you're right, which is in some ways laudable, but it's also an example of the sort of indulgence that so frustrates people about our politicians.

    This is politics. Moreover, it's about the future destiny of the whole country and its governance.

    Fear of slighting a personal relationship shouldn't come into it.
    I don't think it is that. It is Leave wins and it is curtains for Dave.

    Gove realises that, it is a tragic conflict of loyalties.
  • Options
    Mortimer said:

    O/T - does anyone know how long it will take Iranian oil to come online. Surely that will crucify the price...?

    Yup. Russia will be as bankrupt as, um, the Soviet Union.

    The cycle will soon be complete. ;)
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @rorydevane: Very disappointed to see Judean Poeple's Front represented on #bbcdp without a rebuttal from the People's Front of Judea. #bbcsp
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @hugorifkind: It's like the perfect analogy for a Labour Party still existing, but simultaneously not even trying to get elected. https://t.co/59MsTRgfRp
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,593

    Montie

    Shadow Defence Secretary has just said Japan has capability to build "nuclear bomb or whatever" #bbcsp

    Interestingly this is true.

    The Japanese have a large nuclear industry. Due to work or reprocessing and fast breeder reactors, Japan has a very large stockpile of plutonium. Normally commercially produced plutonium is pretty useless for bombs (too much Pu-241), but some of their stock pile is quite old. So the 241 has decayed.. Not sure if they have processed the plutonium to remove the daughter decay products - but that would be simple chemistry.

    So the Japanese have several tons of weapons grade plutonium, and a several very large solid fuel rockets.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M-V
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epsilon_(rocket)

    All solid fuel is a strange choice for a space launcher - but required for a military weapon. Epsilon is designed to require a very small crew to launch it...

    All this means that Japan has the capability to go nuclear very quickly. In fact this has been described as a deterrent deterrent - if the US withdraws it's protection of Japan, it will go nuclear. Which in turn would start an arms race in that part of the world. So everyone leaves the situation alone.
    I think the point was how she said "...or whatever" and also how Labour are now happy to get rid of our nuclear weapons (and remember we are one of the P5 and we have the absolute minimum in warheads etc to provide a deterrent) during a time when other countries / regions are developing and increasing their nukes.

    Japan, Germany... these are countries that have had the capability to have nukes for decades, but are politically not allowed.
    Yup - I pointed out, years ago, to a CND type that the US withdrawing from Japanese bases (which she wanted) would mean Japan going nuclear before the last flag was lowered.

    Hilariously, she (the CNDer) tried to claim that that Japan didn't have the ability to make a nuke...
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,956

    Mortimer said:

    O/T - does anyone know how long it will take Iranian oil to come online. Surely that will crucify the price...?

    Yup. Russia will be as bankrupt as, um, the Soviet Union.

    The cycle will soon be complete. ;)
    Indeed - but not only Russia. The House of Saud?
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    MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    Corbyn is wonderfully amusing.

    As long as he never gets anywhere near power.

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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,593

    James Worran
    Ironically having a submarine with no missiles is much like having a political party which has no chance of winning an election.

    Sounds like Corbyn is talking about building more fast attack subs to keep the sub building infrastructure going.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @hopisen: Surely Jeremy Corbyn is first political leader ever to propose building a naval fleet solely in order to not carry weapons he'd never use.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Scott_P said:

    @RuthDavidsonMSP: Somebody please tell me that the leader of HM loyal opposition knows that Trident is the weapons system & Vanguard class are the subs? #Marr

    That's a bit rich for someone who is hawking a leaflet saying that you should vote "Ruth Davidson" on the regional list vote for Holyrood.
  • Options
    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    SkyNews reported 1m barrels a day dumped onto the market.

    I've no idea what impact that'd have. Someone knowledgeable around?
    Mortimer said:

    O/T - does anyone know how long it will take Iranian oil to come online. Surely that will crucify the price...?

  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @A_Liberty_Rebel: Labour unveils radical new State public healthcare policy.
    Hospitals with no surgeons, doctors, nurses, or medicines.
    #CarryOnCorbyn
  • Options
    flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903

    Sean_F said:

    Scott_P said:

    @BBCNormanS: Falkland Islanders shd have a big say - but no veto - over their future says Jeremy Corbyn @MarrShow

    That's nice for the Falkanders.

    Good and bad news for Brexit. Survation has Leave ahead 42% to 38%. But Gove has now become a fan of the EU.
    The lily-livered flip-flopping of senior Conservatives over the EU has become one of the most disappointing features of this referendum campaign.
    Absolutely fuming about Gove.

    The afternoon thread was about Gove being the right man to lead Leave, so had to scrap that.
    Sorry to hear that - I agree: Gove would have been a good choice; someone has been whispering in his ear.

    It only leaves May:

    "One the biggest risks to Cameron’s security strategy is Theresa May. If the longest serving home secretary for more than a century were to declare herself an ‘outer’ on the grounds that being in the EU makes Britain less safe — backed by Liam Fox, Cameron’s first defence secretary — it would blow a big hole in the government’s case. But no one knows on which side Mrs May will come down: she seems to be the only person in Westminster who is actually waiting to see what the final renegotiated deal looks like"

    http://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/01/scary-monsters-david-cameron-will-invoke-the-threat-of-jihadis-russia-and-crime-to-win-an-eu-invote/
    Realistically, though they are meant to be allowed to campaign for either side, I'm not sure a cabinet minister could so publicly rubbish what the PM is saying about national security. That's the thing about national security, it has usually been something that the Prime Minister doesn't f**k around with as a political football, until now. There really is no unwritten rule of British political life that our current Prime Minister won't trash.
    What an absurd and grotesque rambling idiot you are. There really is not an invention too big you will not spout.
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    notme said:

    Moses_ said:

    Scott_P said:

    @afneil: Mr Corbyn floats idea that we could keep Trident but without nuclear warheads ....

    LOl.
    Perhaps we should put pretty coloured glitter in them .........or even marshmallows?
    Putin must piss himself...This English man...very funny comedian...always liked English comedian....yeeess very good....far better than those racist Meerkats telling me to compare the market. What he isn't comedian, he is in the running to replace fatty arsed Cameron. I always said this democracy very overrated. Here in Russian we never allow such a man to stand.
    Isnt the major cost the actual submarine replacements? The warheads we just lease from the US. What would be the point of the submarines without one?
    We create and own the warheads - it is the missiles themselves that we lease from the US.

    We'd be an incredibly crappy nuclear power if we didn't actually manufacture nuclear devices.
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    Betting tip. I'm at Anfield today, back Man U to win, Liverpool have a horrific record recently when I go watch them live.

    That seems as good as any form guide as both teams are hugely unpredictable.

    Lucas yellow card if he starts might be the best bet.
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    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865



    Corbyn has not reined in his activists at all when they have harrassed party loyalists not of his taste. The picketing of Stella Creasy's house for example.

    But that's doubly mistaken: (a) Stella says her house was not picketed, and all that happened is that a delegation of critics turned up at her (closed) office. I was on her campaign team and believe her rather than the media spin. (b) Corbyn has repeatedly urged supporters not to harass anyone.
    "b) Corbyn has repeatedly urged supporters not to harass anyone."

    This morning Corbyn calls for secondary picketing to return and states IS has strong points.

    Bit of a disconnect huh?
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    flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903
    felix said:

    Roger said:

    Dan Hodges
    Return to secondary picketing. Keep trident subs but not their weapons. Do deal on Falklands. Understand Isis "strong points". Vote Labour.

    That's the Tory leaflets done for every election Labour contest under Corbyn....
    Well let's hope their comprehension is better than yours. He said no such thing.
    You are a bit thick aren't you....it isn't what he says, it is how it can his views can be (mis) represented.
    People are not misrepresenting him. He does want to give away the Falklands, he has massive south american sympathies. He would not put missiles in Trident Subs he would destroy our role in the world and leave NATO and or be a total untrustworthy ally of the Western Alliance. He would repeal all the trade union laws and bring in other anti industry laws and would renationalise what he could and waste money on what he calls the public sector.
    He has no notion of how to manage an economy and would drive our nation into the dust.
    Far from misrepresenting him, most people are totally underestimating how totally and completely thick he is.
    But NPXMP says he's a really nice bloke......
    But thick. What this say about NPXMP I leave to others.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,593

    Just watched the Corbyn interview (the Marr show is on iPlayer)...

    £3 very well spent.

    Mr Blue, I don't know if you saw from the other night, but I took a stab at answering your question about which cost more: building the Dreadnoughts or Trident. The rough answer, as you guessed, was the Dreadnought construction.
    Ah, sorry, no I didn't! But will look it up now.

    My calculation that our nuclear deterrent costs one-thousandth of our economy should be wheeled out time and time again. It's incredible value for money, considering it guarantees our security v. other great powers (and potentially dodgy middle powers such as Iran and N Korea).
    Dreadnought itself didn't cost very much - it was roughly the same cost as building a pre-dreadnought. It was the arms race aspect that was the problem - going from 1-2 battleships a year to 4+ (and the concomitant expansion in other classes of ship + the battlecruisers)

    In case someone has missed the news - the nuclear arms race is over. All the big players (including us) have downsized their weapons inventories. Hundreds of tons of plutonium has been turned into reactor fuel.

    What we are talking about, with Trident replacement is replacing an old system on a pretty much 1-1 (or possibly *less*) basis.
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited January 2016

    Something I'd like to ask re the doctors strike, as a result of Hunt's reforms will they be financially worse off?

    And to clarify, please ignore conditions, hours etc, will the pay packet be cut.

    It is a little hard to be certain as Hunt has been very vague on detail. Trainees in areas like dermatology or pathology who do not work unsocial hours will be better off with a 11% payrise. Doctors currently on a 50% banding such as Obstetricians, Anaesthetists, Neurosurgeons will lose their banding (33% of their income) but get an 11% rise. So the Docs who do already provide weekend services get a paycut while those who do not get a payrise!

    There are some short term provisions for pay protection, which is where Hunts claim that only 1% will be worse off comes from. This is time limited and also does not apply to the Junior docs that move programmes. So for example the 8200 August vacancies for each of Foundation Trainees (the lowest grade) or ST1 (the first year of Specialist or GP Training) will not get pay protection and will be paid up to 22% less than their peers the year before.

    Incidentally the recruitment round for August is well underway and applicants cannot judge whether they will be paid and expected to work the new contract. I suspect applications for emergency heavy specialities will be down in a big way. Emergency dept vacancies were already very frequently unfillable.

    Thanks, so when all is said and done it's about money.

    Sorry mate but you'll have little support among the wider public.

    Except all the polling shows they do have support amongst the wider public.

    Also your original question is grossly disingenuous: you asked if doctors would be financially worse off and to ignore all other factors and when told that they would be decided the strike was all about money.
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    MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    Scott_P said:

    @hopisen: Surely Jeremy Corbyn is first political leader ever to propose building a naval fleet solely in order to not carry weapons he'd never use.


    In the same way, perhaps the police could all be supplied with guns, but the ammunition will be blanks.

    So it's a shoot-to-not-kill policy.

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    Scott_P said:

    @hugorifkind: It's like the perfect analogy for a Labour Party still existing, but simultaneously not even trying to get elected. https://t.co/59MsTRgfRp

    A unilateral abandonment of campaigning?
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    flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903

    James Worran
    Ironically having a submarine with no missiles is much like having a political party which has no chance of winning an election.

    Having a head without a brain in it...
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    Montie

    Shadow Defence Secretary has just said Japan has capability to build "nuclear bomb or whatever" #bbcsp

    Interestingly this is true.

    The Japanese have a large nuclear industry. Due to work or reprocessing and fast breeder reactors, Japan has a very large stockpile of plutonium. Normally commercially produced plutonium is pretty useless for bombs (too much Pu-241), but some of their stock pile is quite old. So the 241 has decayed.. Not sure if they have processed the plutonium to remove the daughter decay products - but that would be simple chemistry.

    So the Japanese have several tons of weapons grade plutonium, and a several very large solid fuel rockets.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M-V
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epsilon_(rocket)

    All solid fuel is a strange choice for a space launcher - but required for a military weapon. Epsilon is designed to require a very small crew to launch it...

    All this means that Japan has the capability to go nuclear very quickly. In fact this has been described as a deterrent deterrent - if the US withdraws it's protection of Japan, it will go nuclear. Which in turn would start an arms race in that part of the world. So everyone leaves the situation alone.
    Mr. Malmesbury, there is a bit more to a nuclear weapon than sticking some plutonium on the end of a rocket. Japan has a lot of very good engineers and the make up of a nuclear weapon is freely available. However, actually building one that can be guaranteed to work, that can withstand the stresses of launch and flight and will actually hit its intended target is not at all straightforward. I am a little sceptical that Japan for all it industrial and engineering prowess could manage all that "very quickly".
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,593

    SeanT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    SF So where do you see the massive inyer face gap in wealth...

    Bishops' Avenue, Hampstead Town, South Kensington, Chelsea, Blackheath Village, Canary Wharf, at one end of the scale Seven Sisters, Peckham, Elephant & Castle, Mile End, Stonebridge Park, Colindale at the other. And within plenty of wards, luxury gated developments, and 18th century mansions, next to grotty social housing.

    It's borne out in Alistair's figures. The highest GVA in the country along with the highest concentration of poverty.
    It's true, in Hampstead there are massive gaps between millionaires and billionaires.
    Swiss Cottage is a good example of a ward where you have blocks of social housing next to houses worth millions.
    .....
    The late, great Douglas Adams wrote something similar about Islington in one of his books.
    There's nowhere in Islington with houses worth £10-£30m, like the Nash Terraces.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2342678/Tycoon-buys-seven-Regents-Park-houses-create-200m-supermansion-underground-leisure-complex.html

    https://www.onthemarket.com/details/2115002/
    One of my great regrets is being talked out of buying one of the houses in Park Square East.
    Oof. Though i guess the pain depends on how much it was going for....

    For about a year I actually squatted a house on Albany Street that overlooked the Nash Terraces. That squat must be worth £5m now.

    Amazing to think how many empty properties once littered central London. Empty and derelict. Almost forgotten.
    Come to think of it, a lot of the multi-squillion Nash terraces on Albany Street (alongside Regent's Park, for non-London pb-ers) were given over to student flats, now since sold. In yet another reversal of fortunes, there are now many privately developed blocks of student flats in London, now that rents are not limited to whatever was in the student grant.
    The student flats seem to be being built as a way of gentrifying bad neighborhoods. I've been told that if you look at the plans, conversion to luxury flats is built into the basic designs - when the area goes up in value, knock out the interior walls and refurbish.
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    flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903

    SeanT said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Dan Hodges
    Return to secondary picketing. Keep trident subs but not their weapons. Do deal on Falklands. Understand Isis "strong points". Vote Labour.

    That's the Tory leaflets done for every election Labour contest under Corbyn....
    Well let's hope their comprehension is better than yours. He said no such thing.
    You are a bit thick aren't you....it isn't what he says, it is how it can his views can be (mis) represented.
    If the object is to invent something that Central Office can use to make him seem ridiculous and a bit sinister why not say that as a young man he had sex with a dead pig? That'll work
    It's interesting to note that the alleged pig-shagging did Cameron absolutely no damage whatsoever.

    I remember the gleeful hysteria on here, when the story first emerged, amongst pb lefties. Some were claiming he'd be gone by teatime.

    Yet, pffft.

    In stark contrast the Tories have done a VERY good job at destroying Corbyn from the off, though they do have better material to work with.
    The reason the Cameron story evaporated was it turned out to be A-Drunk-Guy-Boasted-He-Someone-Who-Knew-Someone-Who-Said story. AKA bullshit.

    With Corbyn, you have quotes from the man - often spoken to camera.
    And it was a total bigoted stitch up which trashed the reputation of its authors.
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    Just watched the Corbyn interview (the Marr show is on iPlayer)...

    £3 very well spent.

    Mr Blue, I don't know if you saw from the other night, but I took a stab at answering your question about which cost more: building the Dreadnoughts or Trident. The rough answer, as you guessed, was the Dreadnought construction.
    Ah, sorry, no I didn't! But will look it up now.

    My calculation that our nuclear deterrent costs one-thousandth of our economy should be wheeled out time and time again. It's incredible value for money, considering it guarantees our security v. other great powers (and potentially dodgy middle powers such as Iran and N Korea).
    Dreadnought itself didn't cost very much - it was roughly the same cost as building a pre-dreadnought. It was the arms race aspect that was the problem - going from 1-2 battleships a year to 4+ (and the concomitant expansion in other classes of ship + the battlecruisers)

    In case someone has missed the news - the nuclear arms race is over. All the big players (including us) have downsized their weapons inventories. Hundreds of tons of plutonium has been turned into reactor fuel.

    What we are talking about, with Trident replacement is replacing an old system on a pretty much 1-1 (or possibly *less*) basis.
    Indeed. Which is why Trident replacement is actually pretty cheap. And yet still delivers a credible nuclear deterrent for the next 40 years.

    In 30-40 years' time there will be much better anti-ballistic defences available and then we might consider investing instead in such a defensive system. Until then, nukes-on-subs is the way to go.
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    This is a film of all the Top Tories Turning Turtle for Cammo:
    https://twitter.com/officerbigmac34/status/688685489881255936
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Mark Urban
    Did @guardian really lose £550m under Rusbridger's editorship? £70m of it in 2015? Staggering - & only viable because of Autotrader millions
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    Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Even if I drank a bottle of Absinthe, I couldn't imagine the crackpottery we've had from Corbyn so far.
    SeanT said:

    This is bad

    Rhys Morgan
    @rhysmorgan
    So I am sorry. I am so sorry that I voted for Jeremy Corbyn in the leadership election. I’m sorry for being even a part of electing him.

    Nooooooo! We don't want Corbyn to lose the membership. Then he might be forced out. Eeeek!

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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,593
    kle4 said:

    .....

    And for heaven's sake man, stop talking about the Falklands. What sort of 'reasonable accommodation' can be reached, when they want the Islands back and the Islanders don't want that? This is one of those situations where there isn't a middle ground. Either we give it to them or we don't. Shared sovereignty doesn't seem to be on their agenda, even if the islanders were interested in that.


    Excellent idea - perhaps we can have a check list of all the things we don't want our money to go to?

    Would be very popular.
    Quite. A very silly idea
    On the Falklands, one reason the Argentine's want the Islands is to take our claim over Antarctica. Which is why they want South Georgia as well, which they never had a claim to.

    Like most of the South American states, they want to do mining etc on the Antarctic continent - UK policy (along with US) is no to any development.

    Currently the waters in the Falkland Islands territorial limits are quite well policed and not over fished. Unlike most of South America...

    The money from the fishing licenses more than pays for the Falklands garrison, by the way...

    Someone should ask Corbyn why he is favour of strip mining in Antarctica, over fishing and increasing the budget deficit by giving away revenue earning resources ...
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    Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237
    Scott_P said:

    @iainmartin1: Perhaps the UK's empty submarines could go around delivering letters from Corbyn to ISIS etc asking them to stop it...

    Do you really believe ISIS are deterred by our Trident submarines?
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    No comment; I may get banned or rubbed out again:
    https://twitter.com/BreitbartLondon/status/688670940033581056
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    Mark Urban
    Did @guardian really lose £550m under Rusbridger's editorship? £70m of it in 2015? Staggering - & only viable because of Autotrader millions

    And hedge fund profits and being registered in the Cayman Islands.

    Very left wing.
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    CornishBlueCornishBlue Posts: 840
    edited January 2016

    James Worran
    Ironically having a submarine with no missiles is much like having a political party which has no chance of winning an election.

    Sounds like Corbyn is talking about building more fast attack subs to keep the sub building infrastructure going.
    Well, that's what we (people who understand defence etc) would imagine.. but he probably doesn't even know about the Astute programme / the "fleet" nuclear submarine.

    But yes, replacing the 4 new SSBNs with a further 6 or so Astutes would be an option if you want to retain nuclear submarine capabilities without ballistic nuclear weapon delivery (the Astutes can fire cruise missiles, which could be fitted with nuclear warheads... although we'd have to design a whole new system and warhead!) [this was a Lib Dem alternative a few years ago... there are many, many flaws in it...]

    BUT we all know that a Corbyn government would pretty much ditch defence altogether. There would be no submarine force at all, let alone nuclear submarines.
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    glwglw Posts: 9,554

    Mr. Malmesbury, there is a bit more to a nuclear weapon than sticking some plutonium on the end of a rocket. Japan has a lot of very good engineers and the make up of a nuclear weapon is freely available. However, actually building one that can be guaranteed to work, that can withstand the stresses of launch and flight and will actually hit its intended target is not at all straightforward. I am a little sceptical that Japan for all it industrial and engineering prowess could manage all that "very quickly".

    The common estimate is that it would take Japan a year or two to produce a weapon, and there's long been the suspicion that Japan may have done a lot of preparatory work so that a design is ready and waiting on the shelf.
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    Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237

    Charles said:

    Something I'd like to ask re the doctors strike, as a result of Hunt's reforms will they be financially worse off?

    And to clarify, please ignore conditions, hours etc, will the pay packet be cut.

    My understanding is that approximately 99% of doctors will be better off, as the 11% pay increase offsets the rebanding of weekend late nights from "anti-social" premium rates to a normal hourly rate (as a result of the move to a 7 day roster).

    There will be some doctors, i.e. those who work disproportionately during these premium hours, who will earn less under the new system but this is a very small number
    As I pointed out below, Hunts figures on this are misleading. The only doctors who will be better off are those that do not work weekends such as pathology. The rest is the "pay-protection" that does not apply to a large percentage of the juniors and is only short term.

    Doctors are not thick, understand how their pay works and can do sums very well. I am yet to meet one who would not prefer existing pay and terms.
    Sometimes feel it's a waste of time and the PB Tories will believe to their dying day that the way to improve care is to take a 5 day + emergency cover service and spread it more thinly over 7 days and that Hunt always speaks the truth.
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    Alistair said:

    Something I'd like to ask re the doctors strike, as a result of Hunt's reforms will they be financially worse off?

    And to clarify, please ignore conditions, hours etc, will the pay packet be cut.

    It is a little hard to be certain as Hunt has been very vague on detail. Trainees in areas like dermatology or pathology who do not work unsocial hours will be better off with a 11% payrise. Doctors currently on a 50% banding such as Obstetricians, Anaesthetists, Neurosurgeons will lose their banding (33% of their income) but get an 11% rise. So the Docs who do already provide weekend services get a paycut while those who do not get a payrise!

    There are some short term provisions for pay protection, which is where Hunts claim that only 1% will be worse off comes from. This is time limited and also does not apply to the Junior docs that move programmes. So for example the 8200 August vacancies for each of Foundation Trainees (the lowest grade) or ST1 (the first year of Specialist or GP Training) will not get pay protection and will be paid up to 22% less than their peers the year before.

    Incidentally the recruitment round for August is well underway and applicants cannot judge whether they will be paid and expected to work the new contract. I suspect applications for emergency heavy specialities will be down in a big way. Emergency dept vacancies were already very frequently unfillable.

    Thanks, so when all is said and done it's about money.

    Sorry mate but you'll have little support among the wider public.

    Except all the polling shows they do have support amongst the wider public.

    Also your original question is grossly disingenuous: you asked if doctors would be financially worse off and to ignore all other factors and when told that they would be decided the strike was all about money.
    Public support will fall off a cliff if February 10th goes ahead.
This discussion has been closed.