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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Alastair Meeks on why London is different and why Sadiq Khan should win comfortably
London is different. We often hear that. But just how different is it? London’s Mayoral election is due in May. With no incumbent, we are set for a fight between two rather less charismatic figures than before; neither Zac Goldsmith nor Sadiq Khan yet have the first name recognition or the tabloid quotability of the two previous office-holders. Default party support is going to be more impo…
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London seems to be Labour's only hope of something good happening for them this year. They should be piling resources into it.
As an aside, excepting the proposed union funding changes, do we have any idea what Labour's financial state is?
Edit: and Thirst. After sixteen days with no alcohol, I am rather thirsty.
Edit - almost, darn it.
Memorial Scottish Subsample Tory Surge Post:
Comres:
Con: 19
Lab: 10
LD: 13
UKIP: 8
Greem: 3
SNP: 47
http://www.comres.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/SM_IoS_Jan2016_tables.pdf
On a more serious note.....the Midlands numbers (Con: 48, Lab: 25) are dire for Lab.....
And
Among Labour voters, Corbyn's numbers are better than the Labour party's:
Party is United (net): -45
Corbyn make good PM (net) : +30
Of course, nowhere near as good as Cameron's among Con voters:
Party is United (net): +48
Cameron is good PM (net) : +73
But the Labour problem would appear to be more dis-unity than Corbyn.....
This message was brought to you by Tories for Corbyn.....
Unfortunately ComRes does not do a London breakout.....
The ultimate partnership!
1. Despite London's population 'consistently growing' it has been losing MPs even in the context of an increase in the size of the House of Commons. Back in the early 1970s there were 100 London MPs compared with just 73 today.
2. There have been years when the Tories have outperformed in London compared with the national picture. For instance, they made significant gains in 1987 despite falling back a bit elsewhere compared with 1983.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jan/17/opinion-polls-matter-despite-wrong-predictions-general-election
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/2c0866fe-dbca-11e1-aba3-00144feab49a.html#axzz3xUCT8aV2
1) GIGO. If the polling is garbage, any conclusions and plans you make from it will also be garbage. This is especially true when a few percentage points can make a massive difference to the number of seats. If anything, garbage produced by a reputable firm is dangerous.
2) We saw an example of a pollster not publishing a poll because it did not line up with the results from other pollsters. The problems such behaviour causes are obvious.
Given these, we might as well use Twitter or tarot cards. We cannot even be sure if the aggregate trend in the polls before the GE were correct, as can be seen from the people who still cling to the 'Tory surge' argument.
Polling of the type we saw before the GE is obviously not fit for purpose, even if it does provoke lots of conversations.
Could be a Pyrrhic victory, though.
At 0552 I would recommend tea rather than an alcoholic beverage if thirsty!
Here is my working theory on EU ref polling.
If it is online add the don't know figure to Remain.
If it is a phone poll then add don't know to Leave.
This seems to give the same final result.
On topic, as a habitual optimist, I remain cautious about Labour in London. Individual voter registration is an issue here because the population is intensely mobile, and registering to vote is not a priority for most people. I don't think the Tube strikes are a big issue - people treat them like the occasional bout of bad weather, bloody nuisance but not something to change votes. But the Khan lead in the polls isn't huge, so I think it's close to a toss-up.
Thanks to Hopi Sen on the last thread for the very kind personal note, even though we so disagree about the national scene - it's personally reciprocated! There's always scope for friendly people to be wrong, and perhaps one day we'll look back and agree on who it was.
Even if Rawnsley's conclusion is right, his reasoning is nonsense on stilts.
Surely there are major lessons there for 2020.
It's borne out in Alistair's figures. The highest GVA in the country along with the highest concentration of poverty.
A little bit of winter does not go amiss.
I had the misfortune to drive to and from North London yesterday, why anybody would choose to live there is beyond me, the congestion is horrendous.
Michael Dugher on the Labour defence review (MoS) https://t.co/WdGZZZ6zge
Reservoir Dogs prequel slated by critics. https://t.co/4HKXl8DA1b
@Maomentum_ Gerry and the Peacemakers.
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Given the near apocalyptic language you used about Lansley's reforms, you get a bit hyperbolic when anyone proposes changes to the NHS.
Alistar said....
Lansley's reforms completely bajoed the finances of the NHS pushing trusts into deficit. So pretty apocalyptic."
Ahhhh... Mr Alistar, The Labour line of rewriting history and changing the point at which year dot occurs.
How quick you forget Browns utter destruction of the system by use of PFI which "banjoed" the entire trust system for decades to come. The payback terms are eye watering and a number if trusts were almost sent to the wall as a result.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/jeremy-corbyn-interview-labour-leader-on-churches-cats-and-a-nuclear-free-world-a6816991.html
Got Kai during the first of the two dreadful winters a few years back. When he couldn't go on walks (young pups can't, for fear of disease, until their jabs are done) he had to go in the back garden with the snow higher than his undercarriage. Didn't seem bothered, though.
This has been described as the doughnut of London politics. The question is how the doughnut as changed in the last 5 years. Do we have any detailed information?
It was quite noticeable at the last Mayoral election that the more... Corbynite Labour supporters claimed that including these areas was wrong, racist, immoral, fattening and that the people living there weren't proper Londoners. Sometimes even before the election.... :-)
I think that people who only see politics through the media sometimes underestimate the seductiveness of politicians who are unambiguously nice to colleagues. It's a reason why Oliver Letwin continues to flourish despite embarrassing episodes while some talented but less pleasant individuals get overlooked, and it applies lower down the scale too - e.g. Ruth Kelly was never a household name, but she was both clever and determinedly friendly to the most spikey and awkward colleagues: I don't think she ever had an enemy, and she did well at the Treasury until she simply decided to give private life priority.
The gap between rich and merely well-off is extraordinarily wide and obvious in London.
p.s. just noticed how progressive you were being...using centimetres rather than 1/4 of an inch
Why didn't Ed think of that?
Corbyn has not reined in his activists at all when they have harrassed party loyalists not of his taste. The picketing of Stella Creasy's house for example.
I was interested that in the bit about him discussing the benefits of his own election, he apparently opens with being able to debate on nuclear weapons. It's an issue I don't necessarily disagree with him on - I'm at least not sold on Trident - but don't think it a vote winner, but it's telling the piece makes it seem that it is absolutely central to him, explaining why he is expending political capital on it rather than other things.
That said, I do note some proper politician responses in there, such as the classic 'no plans to' response to allow yourself the option to take an action later (regarding a potential Peerage for Ken) and also classic distraction from a difficult issue with the 'don't want to talk about internal difficulty x; let's focus on evil actions of opponent's action y'.
I don't criticise either of those responses, btw, he absolutely should be trying to get people focusing on what the government is doing and he shouldn't lock himself into or out of some actions (even if it is something like giving Ken a Peerage), flexibility is important, but it does show both his supporters and his opponents that he does have the standard array of political skills. He may not have been in leadership positions during his time, but he has picked up the sorts of behaviours one has to in the business, he is not a transformative figure in every sense.
"No - I'M Mister Red!".....
And before you try to reiterate your last clause, I defended him over his fondness for manhole covers. He had a point, if poorly put.
Sadly, this article belongs down the drain.
@muir_jeffrey: Jeremy Corbyn turning the clock back to the 1970s.
Remember the winter of discontent, it was the unions bringing down a Labour government.
The Conservative position in London has been in decline in London for a generation through the loss of two voting blocks:
1) The Albert Steptoe / Alf Garnett style working class vote in inner London.
2) The 'Terry and June' lower middle class vote in middle suburbia.
For all the talk of gentrification it has delivered the Conservatives precisely zero seats since Battersea in 1987 although it has made the three Wandsworth constituencies better for them..
And a very good piece by AM.
https://theworldturnedupsidedownne.wordpress.com/2016/01/16/the-myth-of-jeremy-corbyns-social-media-echo-chamber/
If we are encouraging different types of law to run parallel with each other we're heading for disaster.
And to clarify, please ignore conditions, hours etc, will the pay packet be cut.
Way to go Corby....Yeah that'll work well with the business fraternity.
Your posts confirm what I've said all along, Corbyn has no intention of becoming PM, it's one big ego trip to show the world what a caring, peace loving, all embracing man he is.
1) believes himself to be virtuous
2) head full of vacant platitudes - you've got to think about upstream (such insight!), may not be binary
http://www.bostonglobe.com/opinion/2016/01/16/rubio-christie-and-bush-fight-for-scraps/XLlP8T0XzmIYxSvKpIyX3H/story.html
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/mayor/tessa-jowell-set-to-win-mayor-race-for-labour-say-polls-a2942506.html