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Trump now the clear favourite on the Betfair exchange to become Republican nominee. Rated a 33.3% chance. pic.twitter.com/nme8WWCdbf
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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-35308129
Well, blow me down...
I'd think that's a lay, if Trump is the nominee then there surely has to be greater than 56% value in the Democrats winning.
Second like the Republicans if Trump is the nominee.
Al Jazeera America was available in about 60 million American homes. Politico notes that the channel reached an average of 19,000 viewers each day
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-35299367
Making Newsnight over here look popular...
That makes him, according to the betting, a 14% chance of become President.
The Betfair implied odds of Trump as nominee winning based on your quoted odds are ...
14.7 / 33.3 = 44.1%
That seems like a value lay and based on your remarks that the Republicans are 42% I don't see how that changes my logic or maths.
:that-is-all:
Any news from Dr Stephen Fisher? His initial model was pretty good!
Why should we be paying any attention to polling at the moment, aside from the fact they can be a little fun?
Personal experience alert, but among my friends, mostly OAP’s, there’s a marked reluctance to answer the phone when the caller is unknown, and, if they do, to just put the phone down when words such as “survey” are used, or even just if the caller is unknown to them Far too often these turn out to be covert (often clumsily covert) fishing exercises for customers for commercial products.
The polling companies are now, I would assume, discussing sampling techniques to actually get representative answers across the demographics. “Twill be interesting to see what emerges.
The original Al Jazeera was different, but there were more than enough US based news networks.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26468837
TBH I've always found Al Jazeera to be pretty objective (unlike RT - or as the old Soviet joke went 'There is no Truth in Pravda nor News in Izvestia - old habits die hard.....)
Yes, AJ English (as opposed to the American channel, which was separately produced) is a pretty good source of impartial news. Spending time in the region it's quickly apparent which are the good news sources and which are the propaganda sheets. Most of the 'bias' in the good sources is by omission.
I can only put it down to punters not believing that such an unorthodox individual could do it on the day(s). Such thinking ignores recent precedent from various countries across the world (including the UK), and America's unusually open political system. While that openness rarely permeates up to presidential level, it's common at very senior levels below it for non-politicians to come in, run for, and win office.
It appears that he has been consolidating the evangelical vote there and gaining from the almost non performance of people like Huckerbee who might have split that vote. I suspect, like Obama, that these slightly absurd caucuses will play to his strengths. Whether he can put together a coalition in a primary like NH may be more open to question.
For me, it is the question. If Rubio is to build the sort of momentum that will allow him to challenge Trump he badly needs the field to clear and Cruz to falter. A good result for Cruz in Iowa makes that less likely.
There's a lot to take in here.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CYoSLgAUAAAoIgt.png
Still hope Rubio gets it.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/30e48096-b9ec-11e5-b151-8e15c9a029fb.html?siteedition=uk#axzz3xCgL5M00
Sample quotes:
"He disputed the media’s definition of centrist politics. “That is the centre ground as perceived by City of London corporations and the corporate-controlled media.”
That opinion may explain why he has barely bothered to talk to lobby journalists, leaving that to his deputy. “You might as well use a Ouija board to try to contact him,” says one political editor."
"In the 1980s he chaired the local Labour party in Hammersmith, where Clive Soley was the sitting MP. Lord Soley (as he is now) remembers him as a young man who leaned towards Marxism. “He was oversympathetic to autocratic regimes and undersympathetic to countries with the rule of law and democracy,” he recalls. “That is the worst aspect of the hard left.” "
Unfortunately I can't tell you what it is, as on coming back from break they went straight to events in Jakarta.
Here are a couple of articles for an overview on where things stand, and potential perils.
http://www.wnd.com/2016/01/ex-doj-official-twisted-hillary-scandal-is-felony-corruption/
http://www.wnd.com/2016/01/ex-u-s-attorney-predicts-special-prosecutor-for-hillary/
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2016/01/13/hillary_clintons_coming_legal_crisis_129293.html
Trump has one hand on the nomination and nobody seems to have the ability to prise his fingers away from it one at a time.
Expected outcome? Trump v Clinton, with America feeling good about electing its first woman President.
Of course, if Marussia/Manor had their old name I could've made a joke about him slipping into a Virgin. But they don't. So I can't.
Mr. HYUFD, Rubio can't be that bad, surely?
I am, and remain, at much greater danger from Jakarta traffic than any terrorist!
In the four hours since this started more than twice as many will have died on Indonesia's roads (or from guns in the US, for that matter...)
It's much more than name awareness now. Were that the case, Bush would still be riding high. He isn't, because people looked at him and decided they didn't like what they saw; the same as Fiorina and Carson, both of whom rose in the polls only to then subside. Trump, who's been the subject of a lot of scrutiny and a lot of attack, has held on not because people know the name but because they like what he says (and perhaps also how he says it).
The wheels may still come off his bandwagon but then they may also come of Cruz's: it's not as if he doesn't have negatives.
The question you have to ask is why you don't see him winning the nomination? Is it because you think he would be a bad choice? If so, I'd agree with the assessment, but it's not what we think that matters. Is it because the GOP establishment don't like him? If so, while the sentiment is no doubt true, how do they stop him? Or is it because you think the voters will reject him; voters that have consistently backed him over months now, including in states where there's now serious campaigning going on?
Trump may not win the nomination but he should be a lot shorter than 2/1.
Mr. HYUFD, he hasn't lost yet.
He has shown an uncanny knack to tap into people's anger and fears, and to drive the news cycle.
The one exception is the Cruz 'natural born' business which does not seem to be gaining traction.
I cannot see the EU moving away from further EZ integration, or treating the non-EZ countries significantly differently from the EZ countries (two-speed Europe). This means that eventually we would have to join the Euro. And that's somewhere I don't want to go.
There is no way to force a country to join the Euro who doesn't want to join. We have no treaty obligation to join. And the ECJ has no competence to make us. (And if they did, we'd just invoke Article 50, anyway.)
Really, the only reason we'd join the Euro would be if - for some reason - the Euro were to become an enormous success, and the willingness of the world's investors to hold pounds was severely diminished. I.e., in some kind of major, multi decade, sterling crisis.
If the situation changes than I might change my mind. But I wasn't for joining the EZ fifteen years ago, and subsequent events proved me right.
Trump: it could go either way. I'd reckon the 44% chance of the Presidency in the event of being nominee is about right. He'd lost California, New York and Florida to Hillary, but would gain a bunch of rust belt states.
Cruz comes across very well in Texas and the South. But he's not got national appeal outside that evangelical demographic. He's also a bit weird. I think Hillary beats Cruz three out of four times.
One in Los Angeles, one in Tennessee and one in Florida.
Each store owner selling a winning ticket gets $1 million.
I can find you the Google one if you need it.
We are a block to the reforms that the Eurozone needs to make. We have different priorities. It will be harder for them to do what they need to do, if we are members. We will also be fundamentally unhappy if we stay a member of a club where we not fully committed.
I think that ourselves, the Swedes, the Poles, and a few other countries* should get together and try and organise a amicable move to EFTA/EEA. Everyone would be happier.
* I keep debating about whether Denmark would make the shift. While they are not members of the Euro in theory, they have maintained a (incredibly tight) currency peg with it. They are therefore de facto, rather than de jure, members of the Eurozone.
I'm tending to treat the upcoming referendum as referring to that question in the medium and long term.
That is a mile away from the actual debate we are having though, which is dominated by migration.
Also, at present, the Euro looks like a terminally fucked idea. But it might not forever
This is the EU we're discussing.
Many of these angry NOTAs were the ones who elected Republicans to the Senate and state governments. They sent them there to do a job which they have simply failed to come good on. Republican elites are just as venal and self serving as Democrat ones. This is, incidentally, why the GOP machine is so very scared of Cruz - he really means it when he says he wants to end the gravy train. They hate Trump but fear Cruz. Rubio is much more a GOP machine candidate.
So... I think the 'big mo' is with the candidate who is most likely to speak to the fears and grievances of the man in the street. Right now that is clearly Trump. Possibly Cruz. For damn sure it ain't Hillary. Us liberal, wishy washy, civilised, snooty Europeans may look at Trump with a certain de-haut-en-bas disdain. Get over it. I think he is going to win the presidency. Actually I hope he is too. Their political system has become ossified and corrupt - it needs to be broken before it can be rebuilt. And that is clearly the view of a massive number of ordinary Americans too.
So far as I can tell he's got two main problems:
(1) His platform seems to be based around saying he wants a 2nd American Century, and talking about how his father was a bartender and he is a senator, which is the American Dream. But that's it. I can't see anything else distinctive he's offering.
2) He looks too shiny, glossy, well-turned out and perfect which makes him look like an establishment candidate, even when he is not, and that isn't helped by his liberal position on immigration.
I think Republican voters this time round want a bit of rough.
Following the Greek crisis the realisation that the Euro is not for everyone has dawned across Europe.