The whole point of the King Canute story was that he wanted to demonstrate that he did NOT have the power to turn back the tide.
That stunt really did backfire didn’t it?
I wonder if he had an eleventh century ancestor of Seumas Milne advising him.
Quite the opposite. Canute was intelligent, well-read and very religious. He used a simple demonstration to show his fawning advisors that the power of earthly kings was limited and that only God had true power.
Yes, but he's lost control of the story which has been rewritten to make him look like an idiot. Predictably, I think. Alistair Campbell would never have allowed it.
Campbell would have written a dodgy chronicle and smeared the Celts.
''Yes, but he's lost control of the story which has been rewritten to make him look like an idiot. Predictably, I think. Alistair Campbell would never have allowed it.''
''It's all happening faster in Europe for all the obvious reasons. But I think it's a global trend that will reach everywhere in the end.''
I know it's a curious and perhaps daft example, but it struck me when watching the world darts over Christmas.
The overwhelmingly British audience love the top class Dutch players to bits and often support them over locals. There really is genuine mutual affection.
Another sporting example is the European team of the Ryder Cup.
To me, all that's needed is time and patience. Europe will homogenise naturally if only its leaders would let it. They are just so impatient for a superstate.
I think we shouldn't overlook the political importance of sport. There are two aspects:
* competing against each other, as in the Champions' League * competing as one unit against outsiders - the European Ryder Cup team
I think it significantly weakens the UK that we don't do either of those things in any of our national sports. It's not a fatal problem of course (it would be nuts to say that) but it's not trivial either.
For US betting: there is a market on Betfair for NH primary. Not sure how long it has been there (about £9K so far), but OddsChecker doesn't pick it up for some reason.
Really quite surprised that Hollande is shorter odds than le Pen....
I'm not, the French electoral system means that Le Pen can't win the Presidency, she won't get the run off.
All Hollande has to do is scrape second in the first round against Le Pen and enough non-Hollande voters will 'pinch their nose' and elect him.
That's not a given. At least two polls have given her a second round win against Hollande and she's not beenbelow 45% against him.
I know that but I'll believe it when I see it. See as a counter-example the recent failure of her party in the second round of the local elections. Her party was far more popular in the first round than the second regardless of whether they were facing left or right in the run-off.
I don't think the Right stood down anywhere in favour of the Left in France's recent elections. When the Left stands down, their voters overwhelmingly go Right to keep out FN. One can't assume that Right voters would reciprocate.
If say, the results in Nord Pas de Calais and Provence had put FN first, Left second, Right third, FN would likely have won both in Round Two.
And, to keep everything in perspective, FN went from 118 seats to 356.
I'm not querying the claim the FN has made progress: they obviously have. I'm saying they don't have a snowballs chance in hell of winning the Presidency in 2017 which is a very specific claim.
It isn't going to be FN first, left second for the Presidency so its moot what the right would do were it to be that.
Really quite surprised that Hollande is shorter odds than le Pen....
I'm not, the French electoral system means that Le Pen can't win the Presidency, she won't get the run off.
All Hollande has to do is scrape second in the first round against Le Pen and enough non-Hollande voters will 'pinch their nose' and elect him.
That's not a given. At least two polls have given her a second round win against Hollande and she's not beenbelow 45% against him.
I know that but I'll believe it when I see it. See as a counter-example the recent failure of her party in the second round of the local elections. Her party was far more popular in the first round than the second regardless of whether they were facing left or right in the run-off.
I don't think the Right stood down anywhere in favour of the Left in France's recent elections. When the Left stands down, their voters overwhelmingly go Right to keep out FN. One can't assume that Right voters would reciprocate.
If say, the results in Nord Pas de Calais and Provence had put FN first, Left second, Right third, FN would likely have won both in Round Two.
And, to keep everything in perspective, FN went from 118 seats to 356.
I'm not querying the claim the FN has made progress: they obviously have. I'm saying they don't have a snowballs chance in hell of winning the Presidency in 2017 which is a very specific claim.
It isn't going to be FN first, left second for the Presidency so its moot what the right would do were it to be that.
''That homogenisation is evident even in the case of Greece. It's a far less "different" place than it was 25 years ago (let alone 50).''
Whenever I'm in Spain, it feels really British. Much less alien than New York.
Singapore does too - definitely the place for cautious Brits putting a toe in Asian water.
It's all happening faster in Europe for all the obvious reasons. But I think it's a global trend that will reach everywhere in the end.
Singapore is probably my favourite global city. I described it to someone the other week as taking all the good bits of London, Dubai and Hong Kong and putting them all in the same place. A wonderful place to stay for a few days or to live longer term.
Only criticism was the price of a beer, £8-10 a pint makes Dubai seem cheap! Oh, and if you want a holiday there, go at the end of September when the F1 race is on!
I see Amber Rudd is being a moron again. Saying that leaving the EU could lead to higher energy bills (based on absolutely no evidence at all) whilst ignoring the fact that membership of the EU is definitely causing higher energy bills because of the requirement for VAT.
Another thick Europhile.
She is the sister of that slimy europhile Roland "the Rat" Rudd.
''That homogenisation is evident even in the case of Greece. It's a far less "different" place than it was 25 years ago (let alone 50).''
Whenever I'm in Spain, it feels really British. Much less alien than New York.
Singapore does too - definitely the place for cautious Brits putting a toe in Asian water.
It's all happening faster in Europe for all the obvious reasons. But I think it's a global trend that will reach everywhere in the end.
Singapore is probably my favourite global city. I described it to someone the other week as taking all the good bits of London, Dubai and Hong Kong and putting them all in the same place. A wonderful place to stay for a few days or to live longer term.
Only criticism was the price of a beer, £8-10 a pint makes Dubai seem cheap! Oh, and if you want a holiday there, go at the end of September when the F1 race is on!
Goodness you are talking it up. I'll have to pay a visit.
''It's all happening faster in Europe for all the obvious reasons. But I think it's a global trend that will reach everywhere in the end.''
I know it's a curious and perhaps daft example, but it struck me when watching the world darts over Christmas.
The overwhelmingly British audience love the top class Dutch players to bits and often support them over locals. There really is genuine mutual affection.
Another sporting example is the European team of the Ryder Cup.
To me, all that's needed is time and patience. Europe will homogenise naturally if only its leaders would let it. They are just so impatient for a superstate.
Good conclusion. The only time I ever consider myself as European is when the Ryder Cup is on. I think you'll find that a lot of the beer-drinking men in orange at the darts are actually Dutch, at least they were last time I was there a decade or so ago. And they certainly know how to have a party!!
@MichaelDugher: So let me get this right, Ken: Lab PM Gordon Brown led a "brutal regime". But 7/7 murderers "gave their lives" & "said what they believed"..
What do you think of the thesis that, with most of Asia now integrated into the global labour market and at close to capacity employment, value is going to pass back from capital to labour and hence we'll see upward pressure on wages going forward?
It will happen at some point but I believe there are still hundreds of millions of cheap workers still to be employed in Asia and Africa.
Then there is the issue of which workers will benefit first/most - I'd say the highly skilled on low wages in Asia. I certainly don't expect the moderately skilled on high wages in the West seeing upward pressure on their wages for a long time.
I've been asking on this site since 2007 how the West is meant to compete against peoples who are as intelligent and educated as we are and who are willing to work harder for lower pay and under fewer restrictions.
A trillion pounds of UK public debt further on and I've never seen a worthwhile answer.
Thanks. I think your analysis is spot on. However, I am slightly more optimistic about the West's future, given an information-based economy. The bioinformatics/synthetic biology is about to explode, and that will add a lot of high-end, very high value jobs. But a lot of those jobs will go to China, Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia and the likes, too.
Good luck David with the job search - I had thought that you were up to eyes with Bradford City Council and associated buiness.
Hello Peter. No, I've not been on Bradford Council for well over a decade. I was heavily involved with Shipley Conservative Association, which meant liaising with the Tory group there, as well as overall responsibility for the selection of candidates and of campaigning, but left that over three years ago when I moved to near Wakefield. I am involved in the voluntary party here but to a lesser extent.
But, and it’s a huge “but” – in fact a series of “buts” – things could happen to upset this “all else being equal” scenario. Here are four “known unknowns”: things that might happen to push the middle third of British voters towards the “out” camp.
A fresh refugee crisis might erupt in the final weeks of campaigning – a fresh influx of arrivals from Syria, say, or a significant number of people in camps near Calais getting into Britain via the Channel Tunnel.
A new Eurozone crisis – maybe Greece again, or Spain, or Portugal, or Italy – provoking voters to think that the EU’s economy is in a mess and we are better off increasing our distance from it.
Another Paris-style terrorist attack that voters think, rightly or wrongly, puts EU countries at greater risk than countries outside the EU
Boris Johnson, who steps down as the Mayor of London next May, joining the “out” camp. He is by far the most charismatic Conservative politician, and could go some way to neutralise David Cameron’s near-certain advocacy of an “in” vote. (By the same token, if Johnson recommends staying in the EU, this would be a big boost to the “in” camp.)
Just a few of the "Events Dear Boy, Events", which I was thinking about a couple of days ago, any one of which might move the referendum vote by say 500k - 1,000k votes in favour of Leave. That's why I consider that for there to be a comfortable Remain result, none of these events (and others) should take place, otherwise all bets are off - except that is, the 3.0 decimal odds available on a Leave outcome. DYOR
In response to the query about the SPD, I missed David's post on this, but essentially I can't see the SPD playing a very effective role any time soon. They are divided between the membership, who on the whole dislike being junior partner to the CDU and want to be more left-wing, and the leadership, who see it as a necessary compromise to have any power. Their position is depressingly like the LibDems in Britain and if there was a spread bet on their seat count I'd be betting on "fewer" next time. What is keeping them afloat is that the only challengers to the left are the Left Party, which is seen as still too close to the GDR for comfort by floating voters and the Greens, who are light on serious profile and not as clearly left-wing as in Britain.
I'd agree with much of that. What's keeping the SPD in the game is the lack of a dynamic alternative, which is what's done for Pasok in Greece. All the same, they're drifting backwards and as you say, are likely to head further that way. If Germany does take another million migrants this year, that must have an impact on its politics. While I don't expect a revolution - I think we'd both agree that the national political culture runs against that - nor would I expect things to remain as static as they have been.
The interesting one to watch is AfD, which is *not* a far-right party but is a Eurosceptic Conservative one, and an easy and relatively natural home to those disillusioned with the CDU. It's quite reasonable to see them picking up 15% come next September and 20% isn't out of the question. If they do, there'd be a good chance of them finishing second and ending up in government.
''That homogenisation is evident even in the case of Greece. It's a far less "different" place than it was 25 years ago (let alone 50).''
Whenever I'm in Spain, it feels really British. Much less alien than New York.
Singapore does too - definitely the place for cautious Brits putting a toe in Asian water.
It's all happening faster in Europe for all the obvious reasons. But I think it's a global trend that will reach everywhere in the end.
Singapore is probably my favourite global city. I described it to someone the other week as taking all the good bits of London, Dubai and Hong Kong and putting them all in the same place. A wonderful place to stay for a few days or to live longer term.
Only criticism was the price of a beer, £8-10 a pint makes Dubai seem cheap! Oh, and if you want a holiday there, go at the end of September when the F1 race is on!
Goodness you are talking it up. I'll have to pay a visit.
It's a nice place to visit, should be on everyone's bucket list.
A trip from UK to Australia has to stop somewhere, the options are Dubai, HK, Singapore and Bangkok with most airlines. All of these are worth taking 3 or 4 days in to split the trip, it's way more fun than 24 hours on a plane with a couple of hours in an airport to stretch your legs.
But, and it’s a huge “but” – in fact a series of “buts” – things could happen to upset this “all else being equal” scenario. Here are four “known unknowns”: things that might happen to push the middle third of British voters towards the “out” camp.
A fresh refugee crisis might erupt in the final weeks of campaigning – a fresh influx of arrivals from Syria, say, or a significant number of people in camps near Calais getting into Britain via the Channel Tunnel.
A new Eurozone crisis – maybe Greece again, or Spain, or Portugal, or Italy – provoking voters to think that the EU’s economy is in a mess and we are better off increasing our distance from it.
Another Paris-style terrorist attack that voters think, rightly or wrongly, puts EU countries at greater risk than countries outside the EU
Boris Johnson, who steps down as the Mayor of London next May, joining the “out” camp. He is by far the most charismatic Conservative politician, and could go some way to neutralise David Cameron’s near-certain advocacy of an “in” vote. (By the same token, if Johnson recommends staying in the EU, this would be a big boost to the “in” camp.)
Just a few of the "Events Dear Boy, Events", which I was thinking about a couple of days ago, any one of which might move the referendum vote by say 500k - 1,000k votes in favour of Leave. That's why I consider that for there to be a comfortable Remain result, none of these events (and others) should take place, otherwise all bets are off - except that is, the 3.0 decimal odds available on a Leave outcome. DYOR
I think Leave is too long now but that it will get longer still when Cameron declares victory and fires the starting gun.
But, and it’s a huge “but” – in fact a series of “buts” – things could happen to upset this “all else being equal” scenario. Here are four “known unknowns”: things that might happen to push the middle third of British voters towards the “out” camp.
A fresh refugee crisis might erupt in the final weeks of campaigning – a fresh influx of arrivals from Syria, say, or a significant number of people in camps near Calais getting into Britain via the Channel Tunnel.
A new Eurozone crisis – maybe Greece again, or Spain, or Portugal, or Italy – provoking voters to think that the EU’s economy is in a mess and we are better off increasing our distance from it.
Another Paris-style terrorist attack that voters think, rightly or wrongly, puts EU countries at greater risk than countries outside the EU
Boris Johnson, who steps down as the Mayor of London next May, joining the “out” camp. He is by far the most charismatic Conservative politician, and could go some way to neutralise David Cameron’s near-certain advocacy of an “in” vote. (By the same token, if Johnson recommends staying in the EU, this would be a big boost to the “in” camp.)
Just a few of the "Events Dear Boy, Events", which I was thinking about a couple of days ago, any one of which might move the referendum vote by say 500k - 1,000k votes in favour of Leave. That's why I consider that for there to be a comfortable Remain result, none of these events (and others) should take place, otherwise all bets are off - except that is, the 3.0 decimal odds available on a Leave outcome. DYOR
I think Leave is too long now but that it will get longer still when Cameron declares victory and fires the starting gun.
It will happen at some point but I believe there are still hundreds of millions of cheap workers still to be employed in Asia and Africa.
Then there is the issue of which workers will benefit first/most - I'd say the highly skilled on low wages in Asia. I certainly don't expect the moderately skilled on high wages in the West seeing upward pressure on their wages for a long time.
I've been asking on this site since 2007 how the West is meant to compete against peoples who are as intelligent and educated as we are and who are willing to work harder for lower pay and under fewer restrictions.
A trillion pounds of UK public debt further on and I've never seen a worthwhile answer.
China is already heavily investing in Africa, primarily for its mineral resources but look at countries like Angola and you see where Africa might be heading in a generation. It's the same old story as we saw first in Britain but we see now in Russia and China of an initial surge of a very few extremely wealthy people before a more general rise in incomes and the evolution of what we would call a middle class.
The threat to the Chinese political system is the emergence of that middle class which will one day want proper representation especially if the economic "miracle" stops delivering.
Meredith Owen Anyone know how many of the Labour leadership contenders who promised to take in a syrian refugee during the campaign have actual done so?
Meredith Owen Anyone know how many of the Labour leadership contenders who promised to take in a syrian refugee during the campaign have actual done so?
Yiannopoulos, whose public profile has been soaring since September 2014, was verified in mid-2015 and is the subject of dozens, if not hundreds, of parody and fan accounts. He is listed on the Drudge Report as one of Matt Drudge’s favourite writers and is one of the rising stars of libertarian and conservative media.
His unverification appears to be the first time a major media personality has been stripped of a blue badge by Twitter. The company refuses to be drawn on why it had taken the popular journalist and commentator’s verified status away.
Aston Villa about to be the second Prem Lge side to fail to beat lower league opponents.
This is almost always the best day of the football season.
Not sure you can claim those impostors that played in the Liverpool shirts last night as Prem Lge side. And Aston Villa most certainly wont be either in a few months. It does make things more exciting though.
@georgegalloway: Labour can do nothing about the BBC but what about their MP Steven Doughty who admits to conspiring with them to damage his own party?
But, and it’s a huge “but” – in fact a series of “buts” – things could happen to upset this “all else being equal” scenario. Here are four “known unknowns”: things that might happen to push the middle third of British voters towards the “out” camp.
A fresh refugee crisis might erupt in the final weeks of campaigning – a fresh influx of arrivals from Syria, say, or a significant number of people in camps near Calais getting into Britain via the Channel Tunnel.
A new Eurozone crisis – maybe Greece again, or Spain, or Portugal, or Italy – provoking voters to think that the EU’s economy is in a mess and we are better off increasing our distance from it.
Another Paris-style terrorist attack that voters think, rightly or wrongly, puts EU countries at greater risk than countries outside the EU
Boris Johnson, who steps down as the Mayor of London next May, joining the “out” camp. He is by far the most charismatic Conservative politician, and could go some way to neutralise David Cameron’s near-certain advocacy of an “in” vote. (By the same token, if Johnson recommends staying in the EU, this would be a big boost to the “in” camp.)
Just a few of the "Events Dear Boy, Events", which I was thinking about a couple of days ago, any one of which might move the referendum vote by say 500k - 1,000k votes in favour of Leave. That's why I consider that for there to be a comfortable Remain result, none of these events (and others) should take place, otherwise all bets are off - except that is, the 3.0 decimal odds available on a Leave outcome. DYOR
I think Leave is too long now but that it will get longer still when Cameron declares victory and fires the starting gun.
That very much depends on what is perceived as "victory". From where I'm standing defeat appears considerably more likely, at least compared with Cameron's original very modest objectives - this is imho is the most likely of the "Events Dear Boy, Events" (not actually included in Plato's list of four) to have the biggest impact in shifting the possible outcome towards Leave.
In response to the query about the SPD, I missed David's post on this, but essentially I can't see the SPD playing a very effective role any time soon. They are divided between the membership, who on the whole dislike being junior partner to the CDU and want to be more left-wing, and the leadership, who see it as a necessary compromise to have any power. Their position is depressingly like the LibDems in Britain and if there was a spread bet on their seat count I'd be betting on "fewer" next time. What is keeping them afloat is that the only challengers to the left are the Left Party, which is seen as still too close to the GDR for comfort by floating voters and the Greens, who are light on serious profile and not as clearly left-wing as in Britain.
I'd agree with much of that. What's keeping the SPD in the game is the lack of a dynamic alternative, which is what's done for Pasok in Greece. All the same, they're drifting backwards and as you say, are likely to head further that way. If Germany does take another million migrants this year, that must have an impact on its politics. While I don't expect a revolution - I think we'd both agree that the national political culture runs against that - nor would I expect things to remain as static as they have been.
The interesting one to watch is AfD, which is *not* a far-right party but is a Eurosceptic Conservative one, and an easy and relatively natural home to those disillusioned with the CDU. It's quite reasonable to see them picking up 15% come next September and 20% isn't out of the question. If they do, there'd be a good chance of them finishing second and ending up in government.
Merkel will not do any deal with the AfD she will only deal with the SPD or FDP, however her successor may do depending on who it is
In a recent survey conducted by AlJazeera.net, the website for the Al Jazeera Arabic television channel, respondents overwhelmingly support the Islamic State terrorist group, with 81% voting “YES” on whether they approved of ISIS’s conquests in the region.
The poll, which asked in Arabic, “Do you support the organizing victories of the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS)?” has generated over 38,000 responses thus far, with only 19% of respondents voting “NO” to supporting ISIS.
Al Jazeera Arabic’s television audience is largely made up of Sunni Muslims living in the Arab world. Its biggest viewership numbers come from Egypt and Saudi Arabia, along with a large amount of satellite television viewers in the United States, according to research estimates. AlJazeera.net is most popular in Saudi Arabia, the United States, Egypt, Morocco, and Bosnia and Herzegovina, according to the Alexa webpage analytics site. Al Jazeera claims that it has over 40 million viewers in the Arab world.
It's a voodoo poll which has attracted 0.1% of the audience, with the tech-savvy ISIS having a clear interest in the outcome. I'd treat it with the same caution that we give to Daily Express surveys (remember the classic PB-based operation where a bunch of people for the hell of it organised a 96% Daily Express vote FOR giving gypsies priority over local people).
I'd agree with much of that. What's keeping the SPD in the game is the lack of a dynamic alternative, which is what's done for Pasok in Greece. All the same, they're drifting backwards and as you say, are likely to head further that way. If Germany does take another million migrants this year, that must have an impact on its politics. While I don't expect a revolution - I think we'd both agree that the national political culture runs against that - nor would I expect things to remain as static as they have been.
The interesting one to watch is AfD, which is *not* a far-right party but is a Eurosceptic Conservative one, and an easy and relatively natural home to those disillusioned with the CDU. It's quite reasonable to see them picking up 15% come next September and 20% isn't out of the question. If they do, there'd be a good chance of them finishing second and ending up in government.
No Party has a right to exist or retain its influence. The current system in Britain perpetuates the duopoly but there's plenty of past experience that Party loyalties can switch and quickly under the right circumstances.
My abiding memory of the Greenwich by-election is Conservative voters abandoning their party in droves to vote for the Alliance against Labour. Are we to believe that French centre-right voters, given a choice between FN and the Socialists, wouldn't opt for the latter ?
Circumstances worked against the SDP in 1982-83 - there's no guarantee any "new" Party formed out of the ruins of Labour wouldn't enjoy better fortunes and might not be unattractive to some who supported the Conservatives last May.
Aston Villa about to be the second Prem Lge side to fail to beat lower league opponents.
This is almost always the best day of the football season.
Not sure you can claim those impostors that played in the Liverpool shirts last night as Prem Lge side. And Aston Villa most certainly wont be either in a few months. It does make things more exciting though.
Ha ha, both very true. Wycombe 1-1 Villa - full time.
Was a bit weird when everyone only recognised about four names on the teamsheet last night, sitting in the local supporters' club bar!
But, and it’s a huge “but” – in fact a series of “buts” – things could happen to upset this “all else being equal” scenario. Here are four “known unknowns”: things that might happen to push the middle third of British voters towards the “out” camp.
A fresh refugee crisis might erupt in the final weeks of campaigning – a fresh influx of arrivals from Syria, say, or a significant number of people in camps near Calais getting into Britain via the Channel Tunnel.
A new Eurozone crisis – maybe Greece again, or Spain, or Portugal, or Italy – provoking voters to think that the EU’s economy is in a mess and we are better off increasing our distance from it.
Another Paris-style terrorist attack that voters think, rightly or wrongly, puts EU countries at greater risk than countries outside the EU
Boris Johnson, who steps down as the Mayor of London next May, joining the “out” camp. He is by far the most charismatic Conservative politician, and could go some way to neutralise David Cameron’s near-certain advocacy of an “in” vote. (By the same token, if Johnson recommends staying in the EU, this would be a big boost to the “in” camp.)
Just a few of the "Events Dear Boy, Events", which I was thinking about a couple of days ago, any one of which might move the referendum vote by say 500k - 1,000k votes in favour of Leave. That's why I consider that for there to be a comfortable Remain result, none of these events (and others) should take place, otherwise all bets are off - except that is, the 3.0 decimal odds available on a Leave outcome. DYOR
I think Leave is too long now but that it will get longer still when Cameron declares victory and fires the starting gun.
That very much depends on what is perceived as "victory". From where I'm standing defeat appears considerably more likely, at least compared with Cameron's original very modest objectives - this is imho is the most likely of the "Events Dear Boy, Events" (not actually included in Plato's list of four) to have the biggest impact in shifting the possible outcome towards Leave.
I think that Cameron will be able to *claim* victory and that will be the story for a short while. The referendum date will be announced, there'll be a brief air of assurance and inevitability about Remain. Well, that's my theory
The interesting one to watch is AfD, which is *not* a far-right party but is a Eurosceptic Conservative one, and an easy and relatively natural home to those disillusioned with the CDU. It's quite reasonable to see them picking up 15% come next September and 20% isn't out of the question. If they do, there'd be a good chance of them finishing second and ending up in government.
Well, it depends what you see as far right - certainly there are lots of German media depicting them as such (see e.g. the not unfavourable piece here http://www.zeit.de/2015/44/afd-bjoern-hoecke-radikalisierung ). They started as a UKIP-like party but the moderates have been largely elbowed out. It's not a neo-Nazi party but it's far enough right that I think its ceiling in Germany is fairly low, probably no more than 10-12%. They've been in the 5-10% range for a long time now with a bump to 8 in the autumn - see e.g. http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/forsa.htm for the time trend.
I do see them as a potential long-term challenger if they get say 9% this time and then a convincing relative moderate takes over and says "to build on our success we need to reject extremism" - that's what happened in Denmark and is happening in France, where Marine is clearly distanced from Le Pen pere. But their party composition is unstable and it's easy to see them falling apart, too.
Yiannopoulos, whose public profile has been soaring since September 2014, was verified in mid-2015 and is the subject of dozens, if not hundreds, of parody and fan accounts. He is listed on the Drudge Report as one of Matt Drudge’s favourite writers and is one of the rising stars of libertarian and conservative media.
His unverification appears to be the first time a major media personality has been stripped of a blue badge by Twitter. The company refuses to be drawn on why it had taken the popular journalist and commentator’s verified status away.
I believe Milo Yiannopoulos has been very vocal about bias against conservatives by certain social media companies.
I think that Cameron will be able to *claim* victory and that will be the story for a short while. The referendum date will be announced, there'll be a brief air of assurance and inevitability about Remain. Well, that's my theory
I agree with you there. There will be a time when Cameron announces the date and, unless he's campaigning for Leave, that outcome will go longer than the 2/1 it is now.
I'm hoping to get at least a couple of hundred on at 4/1 or 5/1. As the date draws closer so we will see lots of 'events' which will impact the market and allow hedging. It's a two horse race after all, so if one can be on both horses at odds-against...
Is it the case that Angela Merkel will not be seeking a further term as Chancellor? I seem to recall comments from 2013 to the effect that she was fighting her last election.
Yiannopoulos, whose public profile has been soaring since September 2014, was verified in mid-2015 and is the subject of dozens, if not hundreds, of parody and fan accounts. He is listed on the Drudge Report as one of Matt Drudge’s favourite writers and is one of the rising stars of libertarian and conservative media.
His unverification appears to be the first time a major media personality has been stripped of a blue badge by Twitter. The company refuses to be drawn on why it had taken the popular journalist and commentator’s verified status away.
I believe Milo Yiannopoulos has been very vocal about bias against conservatives by certain social media companies.
Comments
Great post. There's a sketch in there somewhere
* competing against each other, as in the Champions' League
* competing as one unit against outsiders - the European Ryder Cup team
I think it significantly weakens the UK that we don't do either of those things in any of our national sports. It's not a fatal problem of course (it would be nuts to say that) but it's not trivial either.
It isn't going to be FN first, left second for the Presidency so its moot what the right would do were it to be that.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017
Only criticism was the price of a beer, £8-10 a pint makes Dubai seem cheap! Oh, and if you want a holiday there, go at the end of September when the F1 race is on!
The only time I ever consider myself as European is when the Ryder Cup is on.
I think you'll find that a lot of the beer-drinking men in orange at the darts are actually Dutch, at least they were last time I was there a decade or so ago. And they certainly know how to have a party!!
Hello Mr Hammond, thanks for doing what the europhiles want, have you met your replacement Boris? Signed Dave.
@MichaelDugher: So let me get this right, Ken: Lab PM Gordon Brown led a "brutal regime". But 7/7 murderers "gave their lives" & "said what they believed"..
That's why I consider that for there to be a comfortable Remain result, none of these events (and others) should take place, otherwise all bets are off - except that is, the 3.0 decimal odds available on a Leave outcome.
DYOR
The interesting one to watch is AfD, which is *not* a far-right party but is a Eurosceptic Conservative one, and an easy and relatively natural home to those disillusioned with the CDU. It's quite reasonable to see them picking up 15% come next September and 20% isn't out of the question. If they do, there'd be a good chance of them finishing second and ending up in government.
A trip from UK to Australia has to stop somewhere, the options are Dubai, HK, Singapore and Bangkok with most airlines. All of these are worth taking 3 or 4 days in to split the trip, it's way more fun than 24 hours on a plane with a couple of hours in an airport to stretch your legs.
That's why I consider that for there to be a comfortable Remain result, none of these events (and others) should take place, otherwise all bets are off - except that is, the 3.0 decimal odds available on a Leave outcome.
DYOR
I think Leave is too long now but that it will get longer still when Cameron declares victory and fires the starting gun.
The threat to the Chinese political system is the emergence of that middle class which will one day want proper representation especially if the economic "miracle" stops delivering.
This is almost always the best day of the football season.
Anyone know how many of the Labour leadership contenders who promised to take in a syrian refugee during the campaign have actual done so?
http://www.breitbart.com/tech/2016/01/09/twitter-declares-war-on-conservative-media-unverifies-breitbart-tech-editor/
@georgegalloway: Labour can do nothing about the BBC but what about their MP Steven Doughty who admits to conspiring with them to damage his own party?
That very much depends on what is perceived as "victory". From where I'm standing defeat appears considerably more likely, at least compared with Cameron's original very modest objectives - this is imho is the most likely of the "Events Dear Boy, Events" (not actually included in Plato's list of four) to have the biggest impact in shifting the possible outcome towards Leave.
Dietary advice https://t.co/ErOgcrTDMx
My abiding memory of the Greenwich by-election is Conservative voters abandoning their party in droves to vote for the Alliance against Labour. Are we to believe that French centre-right voters, given a choice between FN and the Socialists, wouldn't opt for the latter ?
Circumstances worked against the SDP in 1982-83 - there's no guarantee any "new" Party formed out of the ruins of Labour wouldn't enjoy better fortunes and might not be unattractive to some who supported the Conservatives last May.
Was a bit weird when everyone only recognised about four names on the teamsheet last night, sitting in the local supporters' club bar!
I think that Cameron will be able to *claim* victory and that will be the story for a short while. The referendum date will be announced, there'll be a brief air of assurance and inevitability about Remain. Well, that's my theory
I do see them as a potential long-term challenger if they get say 9% this time and then a convincing relative moderate takes over and says "to build on our success we need to reject extremism" - that's what happened in Denmark and is happening in France, where Marine is clearly distanced from Le Pen pere. But their party composition is unstable and it's easy to see them falling apart, too.
YOUGOV - London Mayoral poll converted into 1st round votes
Khan 1.3m
Goldsmith 1m
Others 567k
https://t.co/bGD77E2TQ0
I'm hoping to get at least a couple of hundred on at 4/1 or 5/1. As the date draws closer so we will see lots of 'events' which will impact the market and allow hedging. It's a two horse race after all, so if one can be on both horses at odds-against...
The left are always vindictful and full of hate.