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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Keiran Pedley asks Is 2016 the year David Cameron loses the
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Keiran Pedley asks Is 2016 the year David Cameron loses the Conservative Party?
On the one hand, it was the year of the political insurgent. UKIP won the best part of 4 million votes at the General Election (though failed to make the breakthrough in seats it had hoped for), the SNP won 56 of 59 seats at Westminster and Jeremy Corbyn swept away the New Labour establishment to become leader of the Labour Party.
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Antigonus had a seemingly indomitable position, but in the end that very strength forced his enemies to unite and (just about) topple him.
Cameron may keep the Party, as the Party knows he's on the way out anyway. Osborne, on the other hand...
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-35222365
Talking about Cameron losing the party is small beer compared with the Tories losing the country - especially after all the hard work put in to get it broadly on side with conservatives again (and the way labour are in their current mess).
Also it points to the wise decision of Cameron to not overstay his welcome. Equally I think all this talk of 'legacy' is all a bit overdone. Especially in relation to the EU. The Eurozone situation inevitably means that the UK would have to re-look at its position. Its inevitable that this was going to happen. A referendum is needed and frankly leaving the EU to join the EEA is no big deal.
But those that left did so for a reason and that reason was that the internal argument had been lost. Cameron will fight for remain and the vast majority of the Tory party will support him in that. Those for out will make quite nuanced arguments but the level of passion and just plain barminess in the party about the EU is nothing like what it was. Most Tories I speak to have learned Cameron's lesson well: the best solution for the EU is just not to talk about it.
In the referendum that, unfortunately, will not be possible but I genuinely believe that the Tory party will prove to be far more united on this than its detractors hope. I increasingly think this may prove to be as significant event as the AV referendum.
Osborne strikes me as a run-against-the-party candidate with the fatal (especially for that type of candidate) flaw that the public don't like him. I don't see how he wins in the membership vote unless he's up against an obvious duffer.
De Villiers c Anderson b Flynn 88.
And how to reward a member of the team who delivered the best speech in the HoC for at least a decade...
Let's see what actually happens, but this could be the day that JC loses the Soft Left from his coalition of support.
As I said, if the PM wants to unite the party it would be easier for the 10-12 europhile headbangers to resign the whip and join the Lib Dems so he can campaign for Leave without being encumbered by facetious arguments like 3m lost jobs from his own side.
As for Osborne, I will be voting for whomever he is facing. I don't care who it is. He will lead the party and country to ruin.
Wanderer said:
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Well, the repeat prescription process seems quite cumbersome (I recently had my first encounter with it - a life milestone of sorts). I have been told about this change and (perhaps naively) assumed it would make things simpler for the patient at least.
Response.
It is a bit cumbersome first time, but if your GP has a clued up system, you can normally request medication a few days before you need it, and in my case, pick it up from the friendly local pharmacist a couple of days later.
It also appears that the government is anxious to reduce the number of pharmacies especially in urban areas, where in some places for historical reasons there are three, four of five pharmacies clustered round a large GP practice.
And the idea he is running against the party is absurd. He is utterly dominant within it in terms of policy and the placement of acolytes. He may be less popular with the membership as a whole but he will definitely be one of the candidates and there is no outstanding opponent who will sweep him away.
I am wondering how it works for people whose mental faculties are failing. Is there some kind of set-up to remind them to request new medication?
There will be separate campaigns emphasising different issues.
"I gave you a job 3 months ago, but we now need a reshuffle."
"Why?"
"Because you don't agree with my policy on Syria/Trident/Welfare etc etc."
"But I told you that at the time you appointed me."
"Yes, well, Seamus says I shouldn't have done it."
"Oh well, that's ok then. I'll not go to back benches and cause trouble."
I think Dave is a good leader - but one who wants to sell us out to the EU. The party is already divided between those firmly Remain (Dave, Major, etc) and those firmly out (Hannan, etc). In the party Leave has a clear majority. But a party (as Corbyn is discovering) is not the same thing as its voters. Dave will push for Remain, will win and the majority of the party (MPs, members) will hate him for it. But the majority of theTory voting public will get what they voted for.
The thread header asks will Dave lose the Party? Yes. Will he lose the vote? Probably not (unfortunately). It will become another Neverendum.
Whoever follows Dave is going to inherit a giant ugly mess.
Indeed the whole caricature of party members as proto-Kippers, which seems to be widespread, bears very little resemblance to reality. I know a handful who fit the caricature, but no more than that.
Incidentally the ConHome survey on grassroots opinions which Keiran quotes should not be taken seriously. Nowadays ConHome is far from representative, and in any case that was a self-selected set of respondents.
Danczuk protest just took a nasty turn. He walked (quickly) back to his office after being confronted by two men https://t.co/O8cMqUO48O
That's (unintentionally) very amusing
When I say "running against the party" I mean against the membership. I realise his grip on the machine is very strong. (I'm also using a deliberately provocative phrase, I confess.) But my point is that once the decision is in the hands of the membership the type of power Osborne has will not help him.
I could add that I rather like him myself. My current betting view is that his odds are too short. I might be wrong.
There is a question behind the question which Keiran Pedley asks: what will the really committed BOOers do if they decisively lose the referendum? For many of them, this is as all-consuming an ambition as independence is for the Scottish nationalists. In the wake of such a landmark defeat, how will they regroup? Will they want to retire from politics completely? Will they respect the result? Are there smaller scale aims that they can still salvage from the wreckage?
I don't think they've begun to think about that at all.
Do any of you believe that he will?
If he campaigns for Remain as most people believe, is that handling it "badly"? In which case do you really believe that the Tory party will split?
The Conservative members round my way are mostly socially conservative types. I can't see them voting for Osborne and I think they think the Conservative Party has moved too far to the left.
I guess they are atypical or I'm wrong about them.
Osborne's blind ambition and blind love of the EU is creating a Blair/Brown legacy within the party. Osbornites vs everyone else, look at this page, we have two members agreeing with my position and two agreeing with your position.
Whether he will be a good PM is a different question. I think he is a much more divisive politician than Cameron (as your and other comments show) and he is often too clever for his own good, too focussed on the game rather than the big picture. But I think there is very little doubt he will have a go.
Shadow CabBonfire of the Quislings.When do we expect the announcements to come out?
Whether they will vote for Osborne depends hugely on who the alternative choice is. It's probably the case that Osborne isn't particularly 'liked' by party members (nor is Cameron, for that matter). However, being liked isn't the most important thing; Boris is very much liked, but I'm not sure that would translate into votes in a leadership contest.
The party knows how split it is on the EU and that's precisely why there's a referendum. There's nothing Cameron can offer the likes of MaxPB that will be acceptable, but if my local Tory party are anything to go by, there are several "Nabavi" pragmatists for every "MaxPB." And the number who will leave in a huff over the EU? Tiny - they've long gone.
So I guess that in a year's time when the dust settles, we'll realise just how strong the Tories are, and how weak the Opposition by comparison.
Vaguely on-topic, is there a market in how many MPs will campaign for out? We have 6 new Tories to add to the list, but am I right that there are less than 50 named outers at the moment? Are we looking at 100-150 in total?
As Labour is discovering, when mainstream parties stop being broad churches they lose support. Corbyn will not be there forever to shield the Tories from the consequences of their European obsession.
Nice little William Hill bet i placed in April that Cameron leaves the office of PM in 2016 or later matured over the weekend, so it was a pleasant start to wake up to 2016 a three-figure sum richer.
Then I realise just how much time it would take and decide to leave it for a paid journalist to do that job.
I think it's extremely doubtful that he would make a good PM. What I find appealing in him is the Machiavellian game playing and sarcasm. Not quite the qualities needed, maybe.
The Tories, in contrast, will be choosing a PM which completely rules out some of the fruitier options.
Your last point is key but I wonder if it helps Osborne. Will people who dislike him think, "Ah, but he'd be a good leader"? His polling is bad and his style is, as @DavidL says, divisive.
@MrHarryCole: Bold shout from Ken: "Following the success of the Oldham By-Election a lot of people have rallied round Jeremy in the PLP."
So far I've seen no evidence that he has any answers to the security and migration challenges of the 2020s. He has shown in office that no policy is too important for it not to be traded for short-term political advantage. The EU vote is particularly dangerous for him as it's got his fingerprints all over it.
The politician whose political future is most threatened by the EU referendum vote isn't Cameron: it's Osborne.
Richard is not a pragmatist, he is a fully paid up "Osborne is a perfect chancellor" (or was it near perfect) member.
As for what Dave could offer me to vote to remain, an opt out of the CAP, an opt out of the CFP, control over our environmental sustainability and a permanent veto on all financial regulations and decisions.
http://order-order.com/2016/01/04/donald-trumps-first-tv-advert/
The Tory party would not exist today as a single party if Clarke had won.
The next question would be: could he deliver a majority at the next election, or would the alternative choice be more likely to do so? That's a question which is less obvious to me. It's not just about polling and likeability, but electability, which is a different thing, as Maggie demonstrated so clearly.
He is Brown/Mandelson and Miliband all rolled into one. After reading Anthony Seldon's book on Cameron at No.10 over Christmas, I am more convinced than ever he'd be totally wrong as leader of the party. His ruthless, deceptive and shamelessly tactless - whilst always being tactical - side ooze out of the pages.
Yes, he has a payroll following but he has to win big amongst MPs as well as make the final round, and clearly win a members vote, to win. A Cameron he is not - and I voted for Cameron 10 yrs ago.
I am continuing to lay Osborne on the betting markets.
Both would have split the party.
My last GE2015 bet is for an EU referendum to be held this parliament. I think that's a (very low) three-figure profit to come too.
Part of his anger at Cameron is that Cameron is getting to be the reformist Conservative leader he wanted to be.
If Leave lose 62-38 (perfectly possible with the shambles they are making of the campaign at the moment) then yes - BOO are out of the picture for perhaps 15-20 years.
If leave lose 54-46 then it will affect the future of Conservative politics much more immediately.
But they won't shut up on either scenario and nor should they.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-bristol-35220520
Is only a matter of time before somebody gets blown up.
This needs to be sentenced far more seriously than simply a robbery. If this was a bearded bloke shouting Allahu Akbar, he would be behind bars for donkeys years.