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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Taking the 66 to 1 on Michael Fallon as next Tory Leader
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Taking the 66 to 1 on Michael Fallon as next Tory Leader
The attack in the video above on Ed Miliband during the general election campaign was absolutely brutal and deeply personal but the most important thing for both the Tories and Labour, it was an utterly devastating for Ed Miliband and Labour. With 71% of voters not trusting Corbyn to safeguard Britain’s national security you can see the Tories repeating their attacks on Corbyn and the risks he presents to national security.
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There's alot more where that came from.
Flood Alert at Chipping Norton (Cameron's home):
https://flood-warning-information.service.gov.uk/map
BBC Business @BBCBusiness 3h3 hours ago
PM pledges £40m to fix flood defences http://bbc.in/1R8xKbf
Pure coincidence.
Thatcher was 50/1 less than six months before she became Tory leader.
If he faces Corbyn it will be a snorefest.
I clearly missed that earlier...
A great month for us Puritans!
Go and ask a few Labour voters what they think of Corbyn, or if you cannot be arsed, I'll tell you,..... they think he is bonkers.
I have no idea who will lead the Conservatives after Dave but I'll be keeping my powder dry until after the EU referendum, everything hinges on that.
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2016/01/five-predictions-what-will-happen-politics-2016
Yes: likable but bonkers.
Granted he is Scottish and went to St Andrews but for a start he will be 68 at next election.
And ''...he resigned from the front-bench owing to ill-health in October 1998..."
Long may he live and he is doing a good job at defence... but...
The statistic to look at are economic ones.
From David Smith of The Sunday Times
"... two things. The first is the argument that this recovery is so long in the tooth that we should be ready for the next downturn. We are now into the seventh year of a recovery that began in the middle of 2009. It sounds like a long time but the recovery that preceded it, from the early 1990s to 2000, ran for more than 16 years. The one before that, in the 1980s, lasted for over nine years. Given how far the economy fell in 2008-9, it is far too early to be calling time on the recovery.
The second thing is to deal with the end of year flurry of nonsense about Britain being in the middle of some kind of debt-fuelled consumer boom. In the national accounts released just before Christmas, the Office for National Statistics reported that aggregate wages and salaries in the third quarter were 4.6% up on a year earlier, pushed higher by both pay rises and employment growth, at a time of zero inflation. Real household disposable incomes were up by 4%. Consumer spending growth of 3% over the same period looks modest by comparison.
And, while household borrowing has picked up a little, it remains remarkably restrained. Overall borrowing has risen by less than 5% over the past seven years, and is significantly lower in real terms and relative to income than it was before the crisis. Unsecured borrowing is 15% lower in cash terms than before the crisis."
A positive economic future outlook (Smith points to fairly solid world growth) - who does that suggest you should put your money on...?
We are clearly not running above capacity.
Debt levels are considerably lower in the private sector than they were before the last financial crisis.
And inflation is extremely limited.
So: I'd say the odds on a recession in 2016 are relatively modest.
I think that's a value tip from Mr. Eagles. There's no stand-out candidate amongst the potential successors to Cameron. Off the top of my head, Fallon doesn't have the drawbacks of Osborne (unlikeable), May (nasty, too far right), Hammond (boring, ok, Fallon's not exciting but he's more interesting than Hammond), Boris (laissez-faire).
Incidentally, just seen Star Wars VII. Rather liked it. A few lines could've been cut to avoid labouring points, but mostly it was good.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/12077899/Marco-Rubio-helped-cocaine-dealer-brother-in-law-get-an-estate-agents-licence.html
http://europe.newsweek.com/marco-rubio-brother-law-ex-con-real-estate-license-410288?rm=eu
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3379762/How-young-Marco-Rubio-helped-drug-dealing-brother-law-real-estate-licence.html
It doesn't help your campaign when you are related to Scarface.
In the meantime SA are 100/2 chasing 629, yet England are still (just!) odds-against on Betfair to win the match.
What a shame he (genuinely) doesn't want the job.
Rain expected?
I mean who helps estate agents FFS?
http://www.weather.com/weather/5day/l/SFXX0010:1:SF
Its going to be a funny old year politically.
But in essence I agree it's going to be a funny/interesting year.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-35217049
So the tories are staring down the barrel of a 3rd consecutive election victory following a fairly solid vote to remain in the EU (after securing a spread of reforms) and they are going to start fighting each other?
Really?
Hammond will be Osborne's campaign manager and next First Secretary of State.
If Javid comes across as a competent minister he stands a chance of ultimately replacing Hammond I think. But otherwise someone else needs to step forward and demonstrate the broad shoulders and thick skin necessary for leader and PM.
If it is Remain but judged to be close and that "one more push" will get the 'right' result for Leave (SNP style) then it will be very divisive.
If it is Remain and not even close (AV Referendum style) then I suspect everyone will want to move on.
If it is Leave then the margin is irrelevant, all bets are off.
Typical expectations management is to talk low and then beat expectations. So if you expect 6 to back Leave then say 3 and when it is six you can boast how everyone is now coming around to Leave.
Instead there's a real possibility none will (for a variety of reasons that don't include principles) so instead talk about six. The same as the Lib Dems at Conference. Its weakness not strength.
You don't have to be either a Ken Clarke style Europhile or a Redwood style Eurosceptic, most now seem to be rather boring Eurorealists - the EU has flaws, the Euro is a bad idea, but we're on balance better in the EU for the Single Market than out. Rather perfect if the vote is Remain.
Scottish nationalists are taking the Tunnock's news well, I see. https://t.co/kmr4OJXzM6
Anyway, congratulations on managing to crowbar Ukip into a discussion about Labour Eurosceptics.
If you were to spend more time playing the ball and not the man you'd appear far more rational.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/Jeremy_Corbyn/12078957/Jeremy-Corbyns-plans-for-a-revenge-reshuffle-would-leave-the-party-looking-like-a-religious-cult.html
UKIP have for years failed with expectations management, eg on winning seats under First Past the Post. The Lib Dems lately have failed with expectations management. They were relevant to my point and not remotely on the same side of the issue so it was not "playing the man".
My point is that the Director of Labour Leave is talking bovine manure and it is dreadful expectations management. I bet you £20 at evens that less than six members of the Shadow Cabinet (as made up today) come out in favour of Leave.
But the speculation is becoming so rife that he will hurt himself if he does nothing. However, quite how much he is in charge of himself must remain an open question.
But if Corbyn does sack Benn and Eagle (I guess that the other Eagle will then follow) he may succeed in putting his fellow travellers in place but what was previously a schism between him and the PLP would surely turn into a chasm.
Schism to chasm - a form of progress I suppose
In that scenario, the Conservatives are the Ottoman Empire.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-jeremy-corbyn-agrees-to-join-labours-campaign-to-keep-britain-in-european-union-a6735011.html
Field and Hoey will be for Leave, in glorious isolation. There is no great desire to Leave on the left, despite the fantasies of the eurosceptics.
The left wing No2EU campaign group backed by the hard Left Leavers got the square root of bugger all in the 2014 Euro vote.
I have absolutely no idea how many of the Shadow Cabinet will campaign for Leave, I merely passed on that at a public meeting (the speakers were Brendan Chilton, Dan Hannan and Freddie Forsyth) Chilton, a director of Labour Leave, told the audience that 6 of the Shadow Cabinet were Outers.
Now, you may claim he is lying, misinformed or talking "bovine manure", I'm simply the messenger.
And somehow you link that to Ukip expectation management.
What a peculiar young man you are.
SLAB went on exactly the path you are suggesting after the No vote with Jim Murphy trying to appeal to the 55% and they got smashed by FPTP with the 45% uniting behind a single party. The Tories need to make sure that the 45% who vote to leave in the event of a remain don't even contemplate uniting behind UKIP. One thing we learned from the independence vote is that the 45% don't magically disappear overnight, SLAB thought they would and now they are fighting bloody Tories (of all people) for second place in Scotland this year.
No way, if the Tories revel in the victory of Remain and push a europhile in they will be asking for trouble. In the same way that independence was a niche argument for so many years before the vote, the EU argument has been as well. After the vote it won't be until it is settled one way or the other. A narrow Remain victory is not going to settle it and pushing a europhile agenda would destroy the Tory party after one.
Hammond is a very unlikely bet, he is also a BOOer and has said many times he would vote to Leave if given the chance.
That isn't how I or most politically active people think, but there are loads of not very active Labour voters who just dislike the Tories. he Remain team need to be careful to let the Labour Remain campaign (which unlike Scotland will be quite distinct from the Tory effort, and all about internationalism and workers cooperating across borders) have a share of the limelight.
[1] Boris will conspire to face both ways at once and hopefully will attract the contempt such a stance deserves, but let's be honest: shit just slides off him...:-(
A moderate eurosceptic, like Hammond, would seem the most likely outcome of an 55:45 in vote.
The "Guardianista" Labour vote will tunout for Remain, the "Meh" voters will be more split, so turnout of these matters less as having a tendency to cancel each other out.
The lower the turnout the more likely Leave is to win, like in Scotland their supporters are up for it and will certainly vote, the Remain supporters are on the whole less so and will need persuading to turn out. Labour's GOTV machine could be very useful on the day to get that high turnout.
I will be voting leave; I'm not sure who will win, but I sure as damnit wouldn't be voting UKIP despite the result.
The staging of this referendum is a very nuanced political positioning by Cameron. It shows he cares about the concerns of his party, is wiling to trust the public, but also suggests that he isn't rabidly one way or the other. This prevents scaring the horses inside his party, and the newly loved Liberal-leaning but emphatic Tory voters (in seats like Mid Dorset/North Poole)
In short, there is nowhere else for anyone on the sensible side of economic discourse and competent governance to go.
You decided to repeatedly point blank ignore the Liberal Democrats examples and falsely pretend that I am "playing the man" and "linking that to UKIP". That is patently not true, anymore than I am linking it to the Lib Dems. I am linking it to bad expectations management regardless of party.
Now if you don't think it is clearly nonsense and dreadful expectations management then I stand with my offer of a bet. Or you can keep ignoring half of what I write and obsessing with one of multiple parties mentioned if you wish. If you do the latter it is delusional though.
1. Collective ministerial responsibility is suspended during the campaign (Dave will have taken leave of his senses were he to insist otherwise) and
2. The margin of victory for remain is comfortable, say a minimum of 10% or so.
There simply is no appetite among us rank and file for self-immolation and I am confident that applies to the vast majority of MPs as well.
This will mean that the EU will not be a defining issue for the leadership election in 2019/20.
Before the referendum the SNP called based on winning an election, the SNP were running an SNP majority Scottish government, SLAB were in opposition in both Holyrood and Westminster.
Before the referendum the Tories called based on winning an election, the Tories are running a Tory majority British government, UKIP have just a single solitary seat and even that is only tenuously more than an independent.
To contrast the two situations is frankly absurd. The SNP are more comparable to the Tories than UKIP. The party of office that called this vote. If we were having a vote called by UKIP due to a UKIP mandate following a UKIP election triumph the two may be comparable as you suggest.
Fortunately I do live in God's country - its called Yorkshire.....
We've all gotten used to it, but have a guess how many you get in America.... According to Wiki there's no statutory minimum, and the average is ten days in the first year, fourteen days after five years, and nineteen days after ten years!
As an aside, I'm more a fan of the American model. I work for myself. Holidays cost me money in lost sales/opportunities- I prefer taking half-days to extend a weekend, have the odd lie-in when I don't have a meeting/catalogue to write.
During the two years that I didn't run my own company, it was really, really hard to take the 30 DAYS annual leave we were given......